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0.97956	Get a test to check if you have COVID-19, find out what testing involves and understand your test result. Vaccination Get your COVID-19 vaccination, read about the vaccines and find out what happens when you have your vaccine. NHS COVID Pass Find out how to get your COVID Pass to attend trial events in England or to travel abroad. Self-isolation and treating symptoms Advice about staying at home (self-isolation) and treatment for you and anyone you live with. People at high risk Advice for people at higher risk from COVID-19, including older people, people with health conditions and pregnant women. Long-term effects (long COVID) Find out about the long-term effects coronavirus can sometimes have and what help is available. Social distancing Advice about avoiding close contact with other people (social distancing), looking after your wellbeing and using the NHS and other services. 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Strictly Necessary Performance Targeting Functionality Save & Close Accept all Decline all × Powered by My Surgery Website Translate this page Judges Close Surgery Tel: 01342 317820 High Street, East Grinstead, West Sussex, RH19 3AA Tel: 01342 317 820 Email: [email protected] Quick Links Online Services Latest News Search Home News Online Services Opening Times Opening Times When We Are Closed Prescriptions Repeat Prescriptions Prescriptions Fees Appointments Appointments Telephone Advice Surgery Access Home Visits Hospital Transport Referrals New Patients Registration Practice Area Non-English Speakers Patient Information Leaflet Services Attached Staff Clinics & Services Travel Advice Sickess Certificates Teen services Staff Doctors Nursing Team Practice Team Contact Details Have your say Patient Group Friends of Judges Close Join our Virtual Patient Group Virtual Patient Group Terms of Reference Code of Conduct and Meeting Protocol Contact Us Survey Report May 2021 News letter ... Alliance for Better Care NHS Covid-19 Vaccination Programme Update Meridian Hall, East Grinstead 14 May 2021 ... Mid Sussex NHS GP Patient Survey July 2020 ... British Sign Language Users ... Sign Live ... ... Push Doctor ... A special message from Modality Partnership to all patients re COVID-19 https://youtu.be/DRdFMafgQpI Please note, we are temporarily disabling the eConsult service to address increased demand for more direct contact with the surgery. Please contact the surgery directly during opening hours; to access support out of hours please call 111 or visit 111.nhs.uk. Dear Patients From 22nd November any Covid vaccine appointments will now be booked via the National Booking Service by calling 119 or please click on the link below https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/ ABC will not be running the call centre facility to book appointments Dear Patients, Please click on link below to read the important National Data Opt Out Statement. National Data Opt Out Masks or face coverings The surgery is unable to provide face masks for any face to face appointments that you may have ; however if you have your own we would encourage you to wear them whilst attending the surgery . 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As there are fewer ‘face-to-face’ appointments we are able to maintain social distancing within the waiting areas. Please contact your GP Practice by telephone. Please make use of 111 and your local pharmacy for simple illnesses of which hay fever is increasingly common at this time of year. Important message for parents “At this challenging time, it is extremely important for you to know that COVID-19 is unlikely to make your child unwell, but they like everyone else might be infectious so staying at home when well remains the message. However, all the ‘normal’ illnesses that can make children severely unwell still remain and there is a major risk that parents may delay bringing their child to the attention of a healthcare professionals even if they are unwell because of concerns about COVID-19. GPs and hospitals are still providing the same safe care that they have always done for children. If you are not sure if your child is unwell and whether they need to be seen, click here https://www.what0-18.nhs.uk/national ,call 111 or contact your GP. If your child appears severely unwell and advice is not quickly available call 999 or take them to ED as you would in other times.” Coronavirus Information When should you check whether your child’s cold is COVID-19? please click link for further information School advice Changes to Appointments at the Practice In line with national advice, we are trying to reduce footfall in the practice this helps prevent the spread of the virus. This benefits staff and patients. The following changes have been implemented to keep our patients safe. All GP appointments will be converted to telephone triage calls; please do not attend the practice if you have a pre-booked appointment. The clinician will call you and if you need to be seen they will arrange a time and place for you to attend. 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0.940739	(africanews)—The coronavirus was confirmed in the Chinese city of Wuhan on January 7, 2020. Cases have since been confirmed in several other Asian countries, Europe and the United States. The World Health Organisation, WHO, has since declared it a public health emergency of international dimensions. WHO chief Tedros Ghebereyesus said whiles China had a robust health system to detect and control, his outfit remained concerned about the virus entering country’s with weak systems. Almost all African governments have publicly put in place strict screening at points of entry especially airports. Ivory Coast, Kenya, Ethiopia and Botswana have recorded suspected cases. All except Botswana have reported that the tests were negative. African airlines have cancelled scheduled flights to China except for Ethiopian Airlines. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that range from the common cold to MERS coronavirus, which is Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus and SARS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus. In this article, we will share the latest developments as authorities implement measures to contain the spread of the virus, especially on the African continent. Ethiopian defends stance on flying to China Africa ADC asks countries to allow citizens return home Ethiopia to quarantine all Wuhan entrants Ghana records negative outcome for two suspected cases Kenya to repatriate its students from Chinese city of Wuhan Chinese embassy in Kenya issues orders Africa’s first infection happens in China African trio record cases, Air Tanzania ditches China route Kenyan records new case, Nigeria ‘battle ready’ African airlines suspend flights to China Ethiopia suspected cases test negative Ethiopian Airlines denies reports of suspending flights Ivory Coast’s suspected case tests negative Mozambique suspends visa-on-arrival for travelers from China Ethiopia isolates four suspected cases Kenya rushes suspected case to hospital Ivory Coast conducts first tests on African continent Interview: Ethiopian student in Wuhan shares lockdown experience Ethiopian Airlines explains stance on China routes Ethiopian Airlines Chief Executive Officer Tewolde Gebremariam has defended the company’s decision to maintain flights to China, arguing that suspending flights to the country would not end the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Ethiopian Airlines operates 35 weekly flights to five destinations in China, and Ethiopian on average transports 4,000 Chinese between China and Africa daily. Ethiopian serves Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Chengdu. “As WHO clearly stated that suspending flights to China would not end the coronavirus outbreak as victims of the virus are located in other countries,” Tewolde told The Reporter. ‘‘If we stop flying to China we can still bring passengers from Korea, the Philippines, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand and that originated from China. So the most important thing is to strengthen the passenger screening mechanism and follow the WHO procedures.’‘ Seventy percent of the Chinese passengers arriving Addis Ababa Bole International Airport transit to other African countries. Tewolde says the airline has opted to follow the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) recommendations that emphasise screening, rather than travel restrictions. “We should not isolate China. We should not marginalize Chinese passengers. What we should do is screen passengers in accordance with the WHO guidelines,” he added. The Director General of the Ethiopian Public Health Institute Doctor Eba Abate also defended the airline’s decision, saying the coronavirus cases reported in the five cities that Ethiopian flies to is minimal. According to Dr. Eba, body temperature of 47,167 passengers have been checked out of which 1,607 were from countries which reported cases of coronavirus. The institute is in the process to import the detergent used to test coronavirus. Ethiopian transported equipment for prevention of Coronavirus in Ethiopia.#flyEthiopian pic.twitter.com/ETwFjKD5ya — Ethiopian Airlines (@flyethiopian) February 10, 2020 ‘Allow your citizens to return from China’ The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) is appealing to o African countries to allow their citizens return home from China. Several countries including Uganda and Kenya have been officially rejecting calls fro evacuation from their citizens in China. “For Africans who are returning from China, we have the obligation to receive our citizens and keep them for a while and monitor them and release them into the community because as of yesterday, we started receiving reports that some countries are refusing their own citizens from coming back to the country. It cannot happen,” Africa CDC director Dr. John Nkengasong said. The centre says it has trained 15 African countries that were most at risk and they would be ready to screen for the coronavirus from Monday. South Africa, Cameroon, Ghana, and Nigeria were already equipped with accurate testing systems for the coronavirus, according to the center which received $15 million to equip 15 countries that were most at risk, including countries that had direct flights to China. January 7: Ethiopia to quarantine all Wuhan entrants Ethiopia has announced that all passengers arriving from Wuhan will be quarantined as part of preventive measures against the coronavirus outbreak. The Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI) announced the decision which will affect all passengers arriving at Bole International Airport. Ethiopia’s 11 suspected cases so far has seen eight declared negative. The remaining three are to be sent to South Africa for further examination, the institute further disclosed. The Cameroonian embassy in Beijing has also released a statement to citizens of the Central African country praising the Chinese government and advising nationals on what steps to take. “Since it’s outbreak, the government and people of China have been waging and unprecedented and impressive combat against the epidemic. “These efforts have been highly lauded by some of the most authoritative voices in the world in the field of health sciences,” the statement read in part. The only African known to have contracted the virus is a 21-year-old Cameroonian student in China. Dr Michel Yao, @WHO AFRO, Emergency Operations Manager, outlines WHO’s #2019nCoV response in the African Region. Member States need support to ensure: ➡️Early detection ➡️Rapid response ➡️Awarenesshttps://t.co/Rs2WEQFj7R pic.twitter.com/lX48pBqHr0 — WHO African Region (@WHOAFRO) February 7, 2020 January 6: Ghana report negative in two suspected cases Authorities in Ghana have reported that negative outcome to the two suspected cases referred to the main hospital, the Korle Bu Teaching Hospital as at today, February 6. The cases involved a Chinese and an Argentine who had been staying together in the capital Accra for some days now. They reported to Korle Bu on Wednesday evening with symptoms suspected to be similar to the virus, state-run Daily Graphic said in a report. The Director of Medical Affairs at the Korle Bu, Dr Ali Samba, had earlier confirmed to a local radio station that blood samples of the two men have been taken to the Noguchi Medical Research Institute for testing. Ghana joins a number of African countries that have recorded suspected cases, amongst others Ethiopia, Kenya, Botswana and Namibia. Meanwhile Ethiopian Airlines says it will not suspend flights to and from China over the coronavirus outbreak. Its CEO in an interview with state-run FBC said a suspension of flights won’t mean the virus cannot reach Africa and also that per WHO advice, it was safe to continue operating taking into consideration relevant health screening procedures. Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta is however urging Ethiopian to halt China flights over the virus. Speaking in the United States he said: “Our worry as a country is not that China cannot manage the disease. Our biggest worry is diseases coming into areas with weaker health systems like ours.” Over a half dozen African fliers including Kenyan Airways have suspended flights to and from China till further notice. A number of global fliers have also gone down that road. January 5: African quartet report negative cases, Equatorial Guinea donates to China, massive quarantine underway Four African countries have reported negative outcome to tests conducted on suspected cases of the coronavirus. They are Kenya (seven cases overall), Ethiopia (three cases), Botswana (five cases) and Namibia with one case. Over in Uganda, reports indicate that over 100 people have been quarantined after returning to the country from China. The group which includes 44 Chinese are being held at a facility over the quarantine period. The number is up to over 500 in the case of Zimbabwe, the East African news portal reported. Health Minister Obadian Moyo is reported to have said people who recently returned from worse hit areas in China had been asked to self quarantine for two weeks and are restricted from public gatherings. Information Minister, Monica Mutsvangwa, added that surveillance will be ramped up at all entry points and that isolation and quarantine units have been opened in the capital Harare, Bulawayo and Victoria Falls. Malabo shows Beijing love with $2m donation #Africa #Coronavirus update 🇧🇼🦠🌍 – Botswana govt reports NEGATIVE outcome for all five suspected cases – Ethiopia did same for three cases earlier – Kenya says 7 cases so far, all negative – Namibia also recorded negative for one case – Equatorial Guinea donates $2m to China https://t.co/F596HsIphc — africanews (@africanews) February 5, 2020 January 5: Kenya to repatriate citizens Authorities in Kenya are prepared to evacuate their citizens from China, where the Coronvirus outbreak has claimed over 400 people. The country’s health administrative secretary Dr Mercy Mwangangi told lawmakers there are plans to evacuate 85 students who are stranded in China’s Wuhan city, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is in constant communication with the 85 Kenyan students,” Mwangangi told the MPs, adding that evacuations will be done once China lifts the lockdown in the city. “We have identified two holding rooms at JKIA [Kenya’s main international airport] and set up isolation facility at the Kenyatta Hospital. Additional satellite isolation facilities have been earmarked for Nairobi county,” she added. It is not clear how long the Wuhan lockdown will last, but several countries have been evacuating their citizens from the city. Egypt and Morocco are among African countries that have already evacuated their citizens. February 4, 2020: Chinese embassy in Kenya issues ‘orders’ Kenya says there are three cases that are being dealt with as at Monday (February 3) – one in Nairobi and the others in Mombasa. The Health Ministry also stressed that four earlier cases had turned out negative. Meanwhile, the Chinese Embassy in Kenya has issued a directive for employers who are expecting the return of workers from the holiday break. The statement whiles stressing the WHO position of a travel ban being needless said “…all Chinese companies in Kenya to quarantine their employees returning from China for 14 days no matter they have symptoms or not. “To date there is no suspected case of novel coronavirus among Chinese nationals in Kenya,” it clarified stressing that China was undertaking equally stringent measures for nationals leaving the territory. Meanwhile, while citizens of several African countries caught up in Wuhan, the virus epicenter, call for evacuation, Senegal says it does not have the capacity so to do. President Macky Sall in an address confirmed that there are about a dozen Senegalese in Wuhan and that the government was in contact with them and providing them necessary assistance. PRESS RELEASE: Based on a highly responsible manner, all airports in China are strictly checking the temperature of all passengers departing or arriving. Whoever with fever will be sent to the nearest health facilities to be quarantined and further treated. pic.twitter.com/jvLM0ni5tM — Chinese Embassy in Kenya (@ChineseEmbKenya) February 4, 2020 February 3, 2020: Cameroonian student infected after Wuhan visit The first African known to have contracted the deadly coronavirus is a Cameroonian student in China. The university where he studies confirmed the situation in a statement. According to Yangtze University, the 21-year-old was being treated in hospital in southern Jingzhou city. The statement said he had gotten the disease whiles visiting the city of Wuhan in China’s Hubei province. Wuhan is the epicentre of the outbreak which has affected thousands within and outside China so far. From Wuhan, he returned to his place of residence in Jingzhou, on 19 January, before a lockdown was imposed in Wuhan to prevent the spread of the plague. So far the death toll is over 200 people. The first death outside China was recorded over the weekend in the Philippines. February 2 – 3, 2020: Kenya, Ethiopia cases, Air Tanzania suspends flights As at February 3, three African countries reported that they were investigation suspected cases of coronavirus. Kenya, Ethiopia and Botswana reported three, four, five cases respectively. Ethiopia last week recorded negative for three suspected cases, same with Kenya’s first suspected case. Botswana’s one case as at last week rose to five in a statement by the Health Ministry on Sunday. The only other African country to declare a suspected case negative is Ivory Coast. Meanwhile countries continue to undertake efforts to secure their entry points from possible importation of the virus. Air Tanzania has also joined the African fliers that have suspended scheduled flights to China over the outbreak. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s decision to continue flights to and from China has received heavy backlash. “Nigeria stands with the Government and people of China in this trying time, as they work hard to contain the spread of the Coronavirus. We wish them the very best, and have no doubt that this challenge will be fully overcome,” this was part of Nigerian president’s goodwill message to China. February 1, 2020: Kenya, Botswana cases, Nigeria ready Authorities in Kenya have reported a new suspected case of coronavirus after its first case turned negative earlier this week. The said patient arrived in Kenya on December 30 and is currently in isolation. Over in Nigeria, the Heath Minister, Osagie Ehanire, at a meeting in Abuja over the coronavirus said the country had the capacity to detect, assess and respond in case the virus finds its way into the country. “While the risk of importation exists, we can assure Nigerians of the nation’s capacity to detect, assess and respond to this and any other public health threats at the point of entry.” He also said the federal government had voted funds to increase services of the ministry’s Port Health Services Unit. He disclosed that government was in touch with 16 Nigerians in Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic in China’s Hubei province. January 31, 2020: African airlines suspend flights to China Kenya’s national carrier on Friday suspended all flights to and from China, as a precautionary measure against the spread of coronavirus. Kenya Airways says it is working with the country’s health and foreign ministries to determine the length of the suspension. RwandAir, Air Madagascar, Air Mauritus and Royal Air Maroc have also suspended flights to mainland China, where the coronavirus has killed over 200 people. These airlines said the suspensions are indefinite and offered re-funds or re-routes to passengers who had booked flights to China. On the other hand, Africa’s largest aviation operator, Ethiopian Airlines on Thursday said it would continue to operate all its flights to China, adding that it was working with relevant authorities to “protect its passengers and crew” from the virus. January 30, 2020: Ethiopia suspected cases test negative Ethiopia’s health authorities on Thursday said the four citizens who had been isolated on suspicions of having contracted the coronavirus tested negative. The ministry said the blood samples of the four were sent to a laboratory in South Africa for further investigation on Tuesday, and still came back negative. There are no confirmed cases of the coronavirus on the African continent. Earlier, the suspected case in Ivory Coast also tested negative. January 30, 2020: Ethiopian Airlines mantains flights Ethiopian Airlines on Thursday issued a statement refuting media reports that it had it had joined a growing list of global carriers suspending flights to China. “We are operating our regular flights to all of our 5 gateways in China, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu and Hong Kong with the usual supply and demand adjustment that we always make during the Chinese New Year Holidays,” the statement read in part. pic.twitter.com/XOOV5W9M61 — Ethiopian Airlines (@flyethiopian) January 30, 2020 Ivory Coast suspected case tests negative Ivory Coast’s health ministry on Wednesday said the suspected case of coronavirus in the country had tested negative. A student who had travelled from Beijing to Abidjan over the weekend had shown flu-like symptoms, ‘coughing, sneezing and experienced difficulty breathing’. In a statement, the Ivorian health ministry said that tests by research institutes in Ivory Coast and France had come back negative for the virus. According to the ministry, the 34-year-old student who was quarantined while tests were carried out is being treated for her symptoms and is recovering well. If the results had been positive, this would have been the first confirmed case in Africa. January 28,2020: Mozambique suspends visas Mozambique’s cabinet on Tuesday decided to temporarily suspend the issuance of visas on arrival for travelers from China, as one of the measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Meanwhile, it is not yet clear whether the government will evacuate its students studying in China, who have requested to be taken from the country until the virus outbreak is controlled. Kenya’s ambassador to China Sarah Serem on Wednesday said the government of the East African nation would not be evacuating its citizens from the Chinese city of Wuhan. ‘’“The option for evacuation should not be an immediate concern for now,“Serem, who is back in Kenya said, adding that the Chinese were in a better position to deal with the virus. January 28,2020: Ethiopia confirms four possible cases Ethiopia’s state-affiliated FANA broadcasting corporate, FBC, reported that four Ethiopians suspected of being infected by coronavirus has been placed in isolation, said the Ministry of Health. “The students arrived in Ethiopia from a university in Wuhan, Chain’s worst-affected city by the disease,” the report added. January 28,2020: Kenya rushes suspected case to hospital Kenya Airways on Tuesday confirmed that one of its passengers who had travelled from the Chinese city of Wuhan to Nairobi had presented coronavirus-like symptoms and was rushed to hospital on arrival at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. ‘‘Kenya Airways confirms that a passenger who travelled on our flight KQ886 from Guangzhou to Nairobi on 28 January 2020 has, as a precautionary measure, been quarantined at the Kenyatta National Hospital,” KQ said in a statement. The county’s health ministry said it was investigating the suspected case at the Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH) isolation ward. ‘‘He was brought by the airport surveillance ambulance and is currently going through tests to rule out or confirm if he indeed has the disease,’‘ KNH Communications manager Hezekiel Gikambi told a local newspaper. The Daily Nation added that KQ’s crew had isolated the passenger during the flight and provided him with a face mask, as per ICAO protocols. January 27,2020: Ivory Coast tests suspect Ivory Coast on Monday became the first African country to test a suspected Coronavirus case, when a female student arrived at an airport in the capital with suspicious symptoms.* ‘‘The 34-year-old student traveled from Beijing to the Félix-Houphouët-Boigny International Airport in Abidjan on Saturday and was coughing, sneezing and experienced difficulty breathing,’‘ Ivory Coast’s Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene said in statement. This effectively becomes the first case of testing for the virus on the African continent, even as Chinese authorities announced on Tuesday that its death toll had surpassed 100 from over 4,000 cases reported. Authorities in Ivory Coast moved the student to a safe location where she is currently being monitored. The health says it is highly likely a case of pneumonia and not coronavirus, but the final diagnosis will be made after the analysis of the results of the test. Related Coronavirus disruption: African airlines risk over $400m in losses – IATA March 3, 2020 In "Africa" Why Does Ethiopian Airlines Continue Flights to China Amid a Highly Contagious Coronavirus Endemic There?
0.961922	== Anything from this Whitehurst quote worth adding? == Russ Whitehurst on an [http://www.psychologicalscience.org/observer/getArticle.cfm?id=1935 APS Observer web page] said: "One explanation for the limited use of instructional practices based on cognitive science rests in the differences between classrooms and laboratories. In contrast to learning in laboratory settings, learning in classrooms typically involves content of greater complexity and scope, delivered and tested over much longer periods of time, with much greater variability in delivery, and with far more distraction and competition for student time and effort. Before principles of learning from cognitive science can be applied to classroom instruction, we need to understand if the principles generalize beyond well controlled laboratory settings to the complex cognitive and social conditions of the classroom." == Should the idea be call "in situ" rather than "in vivo"? == Here's a email dialog around the question of whether we should use "in situ experiment" rather than "in vivo experiment". Perhaps some of this dialog should get into the article ... Hi Jacqueline, Thanks for your great question! Indeed there is possibility for confusion. It appears, though, that all the definitions of /in vivo/ that people found are inclusive of field trials and, while they allow for it, they don't require dissection of students! :) 1) The /in vivo/ definition Vincent found explicitly mentions "clinical trials" -- which are field-based randomized controlled experiments in medicine. "Animal testing <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_testing> and clinical trials <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinical_trials> are two forms of /in vivo/ research." 2) The /in vivo/ definition David found explicitly includes "environment": "/in vivo/ experimentation allowed testing to occur in the originate organism or environment." 3) And even your definition includes "natural setting": "in vivo = (of a biological process) occurring or made to occur within a living organism or natural setting." Our definition of /in vivo/ experimentation is "principle-testing experiments run in the context of academic courses". The "field" "environment" or "natural setting" is the place in which course work is done, whether that is the classroom, computer lab, study hall, dorm room, home, etc. I can see an argument for "in situ experiment" being a good alternative name, but it doesn't seem as though "in vivo" is being incorrectly used. Like the photographer of animals in the wild, we have an observational tool or instrument that allows us to capture an aspect of the phenomenon, though, like the photographer, certainly not all of it. Our key observational instrument is not the camera, but it is educational technology tools that log student interactions. The broader substantive point is our effort to add awareness to /in vivo/ experimentation to the array of methodologies in the learning and educational sciences. /In vivo/ experimentation is different from (not necessarily better than) other methodologies in the learning and educational sciences including 1) design-based research, as you mentioned, which doesn't have control conditions, 2) randomized field trials, which don't test a principle, but a policy or curriculum, and 3) lab experiments, which are not run in a natural setting. I have emphasized weakness, but all of these methodologies have strengths and should be applied at the right time for the right purpose. (I have participated in all four myself.) Ken On 10/21/10 10:10 AM, Jacqueline Bourdeau wrote: > In vivo experiment: > - 'experiment' includes control and manipulation > - so what does in-vivo mean in this expression? if taken literally, it would mean controlling and manipulating the brain; if analogically, then what? manipulating cognitive-emotive functions? In that case, shouldn't we rather think of virtual frog dissection? Then we should use Noboru's virtual student! > if what we mean is controlling and manipulating cognitive-emotive functions in a real setting, then I consider that in situ experiment is a correct wording. Or maybe situated experiment. > I like Design-Based research, but I understand that it is different, since DBR means to test and vary the design itself, not to control and experiment on students. > Jacqueline > > From: Vincent Aleven <mailto:[email protected]> > Sent: Wednesday, October 20, 2010 10:59 PM > To: klahr <mailto:[email protected]> > Cc: Geoff Gordon <mailto:[email protected]> ; PSLC-EC <mailto:[email protected]> ; [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > Subject: Re: in vivo experiments? > > The wikipedia definition is confusing. In situ means exactly in the place where the phenomenon occurs. "In the wild." > > This seems exactly aligned with what we mean by "in vivo experiments." But then it also goes on to say that "in situ" means that an organ may be isolated for which the donor is sacrificed ???? > > I have trouble reconciling these definitions. It all depends on context I am sure. > > > Wikipedia also says: > > /In vivo/ (Latin <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_language> for "within the living") is experimentation using a whole, living organism <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organism> as opposed to a partial <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biopsy> or dead organism, or an /in vitro <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro>/ controlled environment. Animal testing <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_testing> and clinical trials <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinical_trials> are two forms of /in vivo/ research. /In vivo/ testing is often employed over /in vitro/ because it is better suited for observing the overall effects of an experiment on a living subject. This is often described by the maxim /in vivo veritas/.^[1] <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vivo#cite_note-0> > > > So that sounds reasonably well-aligned with what we mean by an in vivo experiment (though the first definition of in situ captures it even better - though it is contradicted by the second definition). > > Clearly, under this definition, in vivo does not necessarily mean IN the living organism. > > Vincent > > PS Anybody wants to make the case that "in situ" really is analogous to "pull out experiments?" :-) > > > > On 10/20/10 10:32 PM, klahr wrote: >> >> Two responses: First fm wiki: >> In biology <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biology>, /in situ/ means to examine the phenomenon exactly in place where it occurs (i.e. without moving it to some special medium). >> In the case of observations or photographs of living animals, it means that the organism was observed (and photographed) in the wild, exactly as it was found and exactly where it was found. The organism had not been moved to another (perhaps more convenient) location such as an aquarium. >> This phrase /in situ/ when used in laboratory science such as cell science can mean something intermediate between /in vivo <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vivo>/ and /in vitro <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro>/. For example, examining a cell <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/cell_%28biology%29> within a whole organ <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organ_%28anatomy%29> intact and under perfusion <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfusion> may be /in situ/ investigation. This would not be/in vivo/ as the donor is sacrificed before experimentation, but it would not be the same as working with the cell alone (a common scenario for /in vitro/ experiments). >> /In vitro/ was among the first attempts to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze natural occurrences in the lab. Eventually, the limitation of /in vitro/ experimentation was that they were not conducted in natural environments. To compensate for this problem, /in vivo/ experimentation allowed testing to occur in the originate organism or environment. To bridge the dichotomy of benefits associated with both methodologies, /in situ/ experimentation allowed the controlled aspects of /in vitro/ to become coalesced with the natural environmental compositions of /in vivo/ experimentation. >> >> Second: I know that Kevin Dunbar popularized the term in cognitive science when he studied scientific thinking by observing the reasoning processes used by researchers in real molecular biology labs, rather than in the psychology lab. He was just applying the analogy between /in vitro/ and /in vivo/ commonly used in the biological sciences to his work (Dunbar, K. (1995). How scientists really reason: Scientific reasoning in real-world laboratories. In R.J. Sternberg, & J. Davidson (Eds.). /Mechanisms of insight/. Cambridge MA: MIT press. pp 365-395). Ken Koedinger has also used the analogy to emphasize the difference between "in vitro" (/aka/ "laboratory studies") that are so common in cognitive psychology, with the kind of "in vivo" studies done by many in the PSLC in which the experimental manipulations are embedded in real classrooms, by real teachers (or teaching agents), on real students, who are really trying to lean something, rather than participating in experiments. >> >> At least thats my take on the issue. If I've mis-characterized Ken's view, I'm sure he'll join the discussion. >> >> -David >> >> >> On Oct 20, 2010, at 7:14 PM, Geoff Gordon wrote: >> >>> An interesting question. My thought is that learning does occur within the student -- we just don't try to discover it with scalpels, but measure it at least somewhat non-invasively. >>> >>> -Geoff. >>> >>> >>> On Oct 20, 2010, at 5:19 PM, Vincent Aleven wrote: >>> >>>> It seems to me this query should be addressed by the EC as a whole ... ;-) >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -------- Original Message -------- >>>> Subject: >>>> in vivo experiments? >>>> Date: >>>> Wed, 20 Oct 2010 16:37:15 -0400 >>>> From: >>>> Jacqueline Bourdeau <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> >>>> To: >>>> Vincent Aleven <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Dear Vincent, >>>> I recently met the 'in-vivo experiments' in 2 of your publications, 2007 (Koedinger, Kenneth; Aleven, Vincent; Baker, Ryan. In vivo experiments on whether tutoring meta-cognition yields robust learning. 12th Biennial Conference for Research on Learning and Instruction (EARLI). Budapest, Hungary, August, 2007. 2007) >>>> >>>> Are you still using this expression? >>>> >>>> To my knowledge, in vivo = (of a biological process) occurring or made to occur within a living organism or natural setting. >>>> But we do not (yet) use scalpels with students! >>>> >>>> Did you mean in situ? >>>> = situated in the original, natural, or existing place or position >>>> In situ is used to distinguish from a lab experiment; it means in classroom or any other natural setting >>>> >>>> I would very much like to have your feedback on this. I should say that I am very curious! >>>> Jacqueline
0.9974	EV startup Rivian has priced the IPO at $78 per share, which is above the already bumped-up IPO price range. The company sold 153 million shares as part of the IPO, which is higher than what it originally planned and raised $11.9 billion from the IPO. Apart from Rivian’s IPO, another notable event in the EV industry has been the crash in Tesla stock (TSLA). Article continues below advertisement Tesla stock has tumbled over the last two trading sessions after CEO Elon Musk offered to sell a 10 percent stake in the company. He held a Twitter poll on whether he should sell a 10 percent stake in the company and most people voted "yes." Is there a connection between the crash in Tesla stock and the Rivian IPO? Elon Musk’s views on Rivian Previously, Musk scoffed at the high valuations of startup EV companies like Lucid Motors and Rivian. While Lucid is led by a former Tesla engineer Peter Rawlinson, Rivian is backed by Amazon whose founder Jeff Bezos isn't exactly friends with Musk. Article continues below advertisement Source: Rivian Facebook Musk has called Bezos a copycat in the past and also backed calls to break up Amazon. Apart from the EV industry, the billionaire rivalry between Musk and Bezos has been at play in the space industry also. Musk’s SpaceX competes with Bezos’ Blue Origin. Meanwhile, Musk has beaten Bezos to become the world’s richest person. Article continues below advertisement Musk even mocked Rivian's autonomous driving capabilities. Rivian, like Tesla, charges $10,000 for the autonomous driving feature. Musk expects the autonomous software, which Tesla controversially calls the FSD (full-self driving), to eventually cost $100,000. Don’t want to be unreasonable, but maybe they should be required to deliver at least one vehicle per billion dollars of valuation before the IPO? — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 28, 2021 Article continues below advertisement Has Elon Musk sold any Tesla shares? Musk held a Twitter poll on whether he should sell a 10 percent stake in Tesla. While we don’t know for certain if he has sold any Tesla shares, the timing of Musk’s recent antics might raise suspicion. Musk held the poll days before Rivian’s IPO. Now, one has to be naïve to think that Musk didn't know that the stock would crash following his proposal. Incidentally, in May 2020, Tesla stock fell when he called the stock "overvalued" in a tweet. Article continues below advertisement Tesla stock price is too high imo — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 1, 2020 Source: twitter.com/elonmusk It's hard to remember an incident when a company’s CEO publicly called the stock overvalued. However, in less than a year, Musk defended Tesla’s valuation even though the stock had jumped multi-fold from the levels where he described them as being overvalued. Article continues below advertisement Why Musk wants to sell Tesla shares Now, the usual argument behind Musk’s offer for selling shares is that he wants to avoid the increase in capital gains tax that the Biden administration is proposing. Musk could save billions of dollars in taxes by selling shares before the new tax regime sets in. Source: Rivian Facebook Article continues below advertisement While it’s a valid argument, the timing of the poll might be suspicious. The valuations in the EV industry have been working on a derivative model and other EV names are benchmarked to Tesla. Lucid Motors also tried to piggyback on Tesla’s soaring market cap and compared itself to Tesla in the investor presentation. Rivian went with the IPO process when there was momentum in EV stocks, especially Tesla. Positive EV market sentiments helped Rivian get an attractive valuation in the IPO. However, the near-term price action of RIVN stock would depend on how Tesla stock moves. Article continues below advertisement Will RIVN stock rise or fall after the IPO? With the EV market sentiments turning somewhat bearish after Musk’s proposal to sell shares, RIVN’s short-term price action might be impacted negatively. Did Musk deliberately try to impact Rivian’s IPO? We can’t say with certainty, but the fall in Tesla stock would surely have an impact on RIVN's price action. Listed EV stocks have also fallen over the last two days and even Rivian will face a reality check as it starts its journey as a publicly-traded company. Advertisement More From Market Realist Advertisement ABOUT Market Realist About Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use DMCA CONNECT with Market Realist Do Not Sell My Personal Information © Copyright 2021 Market Realist. Market Realist is a registered trademark. All Rights Reserved. People may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.
0.999699	11 years after graduating from my undergrad I have finally decided to take the path less taken. Yesterday was the last day of my dream job at Facebook. The last day felt pretty sad because I have made so many great friends and knowing that I was no longer going to see them on a daily basis to solve some really challenging problems fell pretty hard. In the almost 2 years I worked at Facebook I learned a lot, traveled around the world, worked with some of the smartest people but most importantly tried a lot of things that I would have done at my start up. The time at Facebook turned out to be an amazing and very forgiving learning ground. What I did at Facebook was a culmination of 11 years of training for this day, day one of my own startup. So what do you do on your first day of a start up. Luckily a lot of the work has already been done that helps us figure out the answer to that question. As pre-work to the first day there are a lot of things that were already done. Here is a quick summary: The first most important task was to find a team, and not only find a team but one that is passionate about an idea, interested in working on it, and feel so compelled about it that they quit their day job to do this. What I did not want was to join forces with just anybody who did not have a job and wanted to figure out what to do next in their life. So finally I found two friends from business school Calvin and Nitya who both feel passionate about solving an unmet need that they have decided to jump in with me and lunch an idea. This process took me about four months, where we found the right team and figured out an unmet need in the world that we were going to dedicate at least the next few months of our life for. There were many people who helped me along this journey of finding the team and the problems. More about them later. This is a picture of what my home office looks like at 6 AM on day one of the start up Great, so now I have a team, an interesting idea/hypothesis, and have the time to become incredibly focused. Now, let’s get back to the first day of the start up. What do I do now? What should I spend my time on? What is the first thing you work on when you start a start up? For me the answer to these questions seems pretty straightforward. We do not have a product or an idea, we just have a hypothesis about what we believe is an unmet need in the world and we have to set up an incredibly awesome experiment that helps us figure out if our hypothesis is correct or not within the next three months. Everything we do now needs to be completely focused on solving this problem of setting up an experiment, collecting some reliable data, figuring out what all the data means and finally coming to a conclusion about our hypothesis. In simplest terms, we will be talking to a lot of our customers probably spending more than 50 hours a week doing that. Rest of the time we will be building out a very low fidelity product that just has interfaces for our customers and everything in between we will try to accomplish with humans in the loop. For a person who has been thinking about scale for the last three years, we will be doing something that absolutely does not scale. In summary, Day One of the start up we are really focused on talking to our customers and collecting feedback about what a product might look like. Lastly, but most importantly, will they pay any money for the product if it existed? Six Month Update: About the startup First, let me share about where we are how you can help. The startup is called Xpertly, and yes, you should try it out. Why: Professional networking is painful (finding people, attending events, etc) but very important for your career. What we do: We make meeting other interesting professionals easy for you. Sign up, tell us the kind of professionals you like meeting and how often, and let us do the hard work of finding people and sending you warm introductions. Our algorithms make sure you continue to meet high-caliber professionals. How you can help You can help in multiple ways (even if you are not a big fan of serendipitous networking) If this is something you are interested in, please visit the relevant link and sign up: (a) Startup/Business Networking (General), (b) UCLA Anderson Alumni Networking, (c ) USC Marshall Alumni Networking , or (d) California Attorney Networking. If you don’t feel like signing up, not a problem. Just take a look at the main site (http://xpertly.co) and provide feedback on (1) idea (2) design (3) suggestion on how we can improve and reach more people. (only ask is that you are direct and honest, my team and I have really thick skin). You can email me or leave a comment below.
0.976837	Put your vertical blind louvres in the washing machine and choose a delicates wash setting with water no warmer than 30 degrees Celsius, along with a gentle detergent (ideally non-bio). Don't use a fabric softener, and DO NOT spin dry your louvres If you'd like to give your blinds an extra-gentle wash in the machine, roll them up into a coil, place them in a pillowcase, and put them in the drum with a few towels on a delicate wash - this will help prevent fraying Once you have established that your vertical blinds can be washed in a washing machine, follow these steps to complete the task. Completely remove the fabric from the blinds Fabric vertical blinds can be washed by hand or in the washing machine, while wooden blinds shouldn't be soaked at all If you want to spare yourself the hassle, put your vertical blinds in the washing machine. First, remove all hooks and chains, then put the blinds in a pillowcase, so they don't get tangled. Wash on a heat setting no higher than 30 degrees Remember: Don't put vertical slats in the washing machine or tumble dryer - even inside a pillowcase they can fray and even shrink Can You Wash Vertical Blinds In The Washing Machine If you have plastic, fabric, or vinyl blinds, you can remove them and soak them in water to deep-clean them. Some blinds can even be washed in your laundry machine. In no time, you'll have blinds that look good as new If you decide to wash vertical blinds by hand or in a washing machine or dry-clean, you will need to remove them for washing. Since each manufacturer of curtains for windows designs may differ, then they will be removed in different ways. If your eaves have a front panel, then you first need to remove it.. Unlike some curtains, however, most fabric blinds are not machine washable Even though many vertical blinds state they can be machine washed safely at temperatures of 40 degrees, some people find their blinds never come out quite the same as when they went in. Fabric blinds can snag and fray very easily, so if you do decide to machine wash, roll the blinds up and put them in an empty pillow case to protect them, and use a gentle wash cycle designed for woollens and delicates If you want to wash the blinds, then you need a bathtub for it. Because if you put the vertical blinds in a washing machine, you sure know what will happen to them. So to save the damage, just put those blinds in a bathtub, put some water in it (warm), and then add some detergent liquid inside You can also wash your vertical fabric blinds in the washing machine, but this must be on a gentle cycle at temperatures no hotter than 30C (86F) Step by step guide to cleaning your vertical blind fabric. - created at http://animoto.co There are several vertical blinds are suitable to wash in washing machine. Before keeping them in the washing machine, check out the label on blinds for washing instructions. Make sure they are washable in washing machine. When you use the washing machine to clean the fabric vertical blinds, it may lead to snagging and fraying easily Many fabric vertical blinds can be machine washed. Always check the washing instructions on the label first, and it's a good idea to use a gentle wash cycle at a low temperature, such as your machine's wool or delicates wash Yes. Tahe them down then, remove the the link bead chain, roll the slats up and put them in a pillow slip tie a knot inthe end of the slip. wash at 30 spin do not dry them put them up wet the.. One good way to clean them is with a washing machine or a large enough sink/basin, by following steps that explain how to wash vertical blinds in the proper way. The Best Way to Wash It All Away Blinds are not your typical piece of cloth that can simply be chucked into the rolling tumbler that is a washing machine or beaten with a bat, like the. in the washing machine; cleaning the blinds without removing them. If you chose the first two methods, then it is necessary to remove the blinds for washing from the mount. Do not forget to vacuum and remove the dust with a damp sponge, because while they are in a vertical state, it is much more convenient to do this. Use a brush without bristles How to clean your Machine Washable Vertical Blind Fabrics First a word of warning please make sure the fabric you have is truly machine washable (check with your blind supplier) Remove the bottom chain from both sides of the louvres while they are still hanging at the window. Remove the weights in the bottom of the louvre Will washing by hand be too time consuming and difficult or will a washing machine ruin the shape of the blinds? This month our experts are here to advise you on the best ways to clean fabric vertical blinds. Cleaning your vertical blinds by hand. Before detaching your vertical blinds, dust them down first You can; however, it would be best if you were to put the blinds in a pillowcase before putting them into the machine. You should also always check the label to see if they are safe to wash in a machine. How do you machine wash vertical blinds? To wash your vertical blinds in a machine, first, you must remove the blinds from their hooks and. How do you wash vertical blinds in the washing machine If your Vertical blind is in a high usage area, such as a kitchen, you may find that you need to clean them more frequently to remove stubborn stains. If you do have a stain that will not lift easily with a damp cloth, then you could try treating the stain with a fabric stain remover LOVE the answer about the vertical washing machine! but it doesn't help you does it?You CAN wash them in a machine subject to the removal of weights, chains etc.How they come out may depend on the.. Vertical blinds are one of the easiest styles to clean and maintain. With nothing but household cleaning equipment, you can get your vertical blinds looking as good as new. In this article, we provide tips and tricks for effectively cleaning vertical blinds. What you'll need Everything you need to clean your vertical blinds should be found around the house Microfibre cloth Vacuum cleaner. Steps to Wash Hanging Blinds: Vertical blind cleaning tools can be found at most janitorial supply stores. If not, you can make one. Take a pair of BBQ tongues. Cut a cellulose sponge to fit into the ends of the tongs and glue the pieces securely using waterproof glue. Clamp and allow the glue to set overnight. Cleaning blinds can be messy When we moved in here my mum put our vertical blinds in her washing machine on the most gentle wash she could. They came out creased but they also came out white when they went in yellow. Creeping back in for accountability after falling off the wagon in 2016 Even though many vertical blinds state they can be machine washed safely at temperatures of 40 degrees, some people find their blinds never come out quite the same as when they went in. Fabric blinds can snag and fray very easily, so if you do decide to machine wash, roll the blinds up and put them in an empty pillow case to protect them, and. You can also clean your vertical blinds in a washing machine. This would save a tremendous amount of time with zero effort. But you can only clean the fabric blinds with this method. Also, ensure that the fabric is washing machine compatible otherwise, you could end up ruining them. To get started, remove the fabric from the blinds and vacuum. You can also clean your vertical blinds in a washing machine. This would save a tremendous amount of time with zero effort. But you can only clean the fabric blinds with this method. Also, ensure that the fabric is washing machine compatible otherwise, you could end up ruining them To remove your vertical blind vanes, slide a credit card into the clip and gently slide the vane out. To remove dust from vinyl vanes, wipe down the slats with a microfiber cloth. For tougher grime or dirt, you can wipe the vanes with soapy water and a microfiber cloth, or allow them to soak in a tub The answer to this depends on the fabric your vertical blinds are made of, with some types of vertical blinds being machine washable with care and others being apt to discolour, warp, or disintegrate at the very mention of the word Zanussi You can wash the blinds in a washing machine. You can wash blinds in an upright position without disassembling them. It is a very gentle cleaning method, but it is rarely used to remove individual stains on the curtains due to the complexity of the process. When you clean the blinds in an upright position, you can vacuum How To Clean Vertical Blinds - 6 Easy Method Washing Machine Depending on the fabric and stitching of the blinds, some can be washed in the washing machine on a delicate and cool cycle. Make sure to check the exact requirements of the blinds before placing in the washing machine, as some glue may dissolve or the fabric can become misshapen which is a costly replacement Machine Washable Vertical Blinds by Blinds4LessDirect / Machine Washable At Blinds4lessDirect we offer all types of blinds including our range of machine washable made to measure vertical blinds. All of the blinds can be washed in a washing machine at 40 degrees or lower. How to Wash Vertical Slat 7.3K posts When we moved in here my mum put our vertical blinds in her washing machine on the most gentle wash she could. They came out creased but they also came out white when they went in yellow. Creeping back in for accountability after falling off the wagon in 2016 When you clean them every week, your window blinds will look their best. Unfortunately, sometimes we forget, until one day we realize they're coated with dust, or they've gotten yellow and discolored from the sun. The good news is you can learn how to clean blinds with a few simple tools Then I had a bucket of water with some dawn dish soap and a big scoop of oxy clean and a brush with a handle I had for washing dishes (the kind you can put soap in the handle) and just lightly scrubbed over the blinds starting at the top The Ultimate Guide on How to Clean Vertical Blind Vertical blinds can either be washed while hanging or by removing them and washing them. If you want to wash your blinds the following information will come in handy for both hanging and remove blinds No, don't do that. Take down all you're blinds and take them outside (find or make a clean area to lay them down). Lay them flat on the ground. Get a large scrubbing brush and a large bucket of hot.. If your vertical blinds are machine washable, they can be put through the machine but only if the temperature is no higher than 30 degrees celsius (some say 40C). Cleaning this way can be a bit tricky, and so a lot of householders prefer to take the fabric slats to the dry cleaners, or call in some professional cleaners to do the job Method Four - Clean Them in a Washing Machine. Remove the vertical blinds from the rail and fold them in half. Place them in a pillowcase and tie the open end of the pillowcase. Put the pillowcase in the washing machine. Select the gentle wash cycle that you use for woollen and delicate clothes. Run the washing machine You can even wash some Vertical Fabric Blinds in a washing machine (if your blinds are washable) but if your blinds are not washable then it will damage your blinds. How To Remove Black Mildew Spots From Fabric Blinds Guide On How to Clean Fabric Vertical Blind Can You Wash Vertical Blinds in the Washing Machine? Completely remove the fabric from the blinds. Carefully roll up the fabric slats. Put the fabric into a bag or pillowcase. Wash at 30°C with no spin dry. Leave to dry naturally. Hang the slats back up Fabric blinds need to be removed in order to get cleaned. They can only be cleaned after washing in the machines. Below are the steps to wash the fabric vertical blinds with ease. Remove your blinds and close them in the shape of a coil Washing vertical blinds in a washing machine takes a little preparation. The best way to wash vertical blinds in a washing machine is to use the following procedure: Remove the fabric from the blind according to the manufacturer design Take the material away from the blind, ensuring that there are no additional, non-fabric parts attache If you have fabric vertical blinds, cleaning them in the washing machine will get rid of any mould or mildew growth. Use a good quality detergent and set the maximum temperature allowed (check the washing instructions). Generally, most types of fabric blinds can be washed in 30C water I wash my vertical blinds in the washing machine.I take them down an lay them one on top of the other on the floor.I then roll them into a coil pop an elastic band over the coil, (make sure elastic is around the outer circle of the coil to avoid marking the blinds) then pop them into a pillow case and then in to the wash Vertical slats: How to safely wash & rehan If you would rather avoid the washing machine altogether, you could go with a hand wash. For this method of cleaning your vertical blinds, you need to use warm water and not boiling hot water. This is important because hot water could melt any glue used along the fold of your blinds Before washing vertical blinds, make sure you double-check the material it is made up of. If it is fabric, plastic, or vinyl, you can remove the dust and stains by soaking them into the water and wash either by hand or using a machine. However, it would help if you never soaked the wooden blinds at all While vertical blinds gather less dust than horizontal blinds, they still get dirty over time and need to be cleaned every so often.If you have plastic, fabric, or vinyl blinds, you can remove them and soak them in water to deep-clean them. Some blinds can even be washed in your laundry machine 4 Simple Ways to Clean Vertical Blinds - wikiHo ium) while they are still hanging in place. Washing blinds in a washing machine or soaking in a bath of warm water can cause fabric blinds to fray, and it can be tricky to put blinds back in place once you've cleaned them e in the washing machine on a gentle 30 degree wash once or twice a year and they come up beautifully. Just remember to lay them flat in. Vertical blinds made of fabric can sometimes be cleaned in a washing machine; be sure to check the manufacturer's cleaning instructions first. If they are machine washable, put them through a cold wash on the delicate cycle, using liquid detergent made for fine washables Read our expert guide on how to clean all types of blinds and keep your blinds in tip-top condition. Hillarys uses cookies to enhance your experience of our site. By continuing to browse you consent to our use of cookies - If you still need additional cleaning after dusting, wash or spot clean blinds. For dusting and washing vertical blinds, there are different methods between vinyl/PVC/plastic. The instructions below are for vinyl/PVC/plastic. For tips on how to dust and wash fabric vertical blinds, see cleaning vertical fabric blinds below.. Hereof, can you wash fabric vertical blinds in washing machine? Fabric blinds can snag and fray very easily, so if you do decide to machine wash, roll the blinds up and put them in an empty pillow case to protect them, and use a gentle wash cycle designed for woollens and delicates Can you wash vertical blinds? Chat to other Netmums about all things household cleaning, from how to tackle stains to how to often to steam clean the kitchen floor. Please note, this board is not for advertising or recruiting a cleaning service To Clean Vertical Blinds that are Heavily Soiled. Sometimes the fabrics are dry clean only - please check with the manual or the manufacturer if you have any doubts. For flexible slats, you can leave them in place and carefully use the upholstery wand on a carpet cleaning machine using just warm water and white vinegar While they can be one of the hardest areas of the house to keep pristine, the cleaning enthusiast - real name Sophie Hinchliffe - showed how you can clean blinds using only a pack of tumble dryer. How to wash vertical blinds at home (16 photos): how to LOVE the answer about the vertical washing machine! but it doesn't help you does it?You CAN wash them in a machine subject to the removal of weights, chains etc.How they come out may depend on the fabric they are made from, and you need to use a low temperature short spin programme.Definitely worth while but as some one else suggested,use a pillow case it will help to prevent fraying at the edges Below are some of the best ways to clean vertical fabric blinds. Use just one method or combine them to get even better results. You may need a ladder depending on the length of your blinds. The Washing Machine; Not all fabric blinds but many designs can be detached and put in the washing machine to be washed just like your fabric clothes Quick Clean and Frequent Maintenance to Refresh your Vertical Blinds. If you are wondering how to clean fabric vertical blinds and maintain them, the above tips can come in handy. Once you regularly clean and maintain your blinds, it can make a big difference in your home's vitality. Fresh blinds are a gateway to clean and appealing home décor Generally light dusting is as far as you need to go to keep your Vertical Blind in 'tip top' condition. If you feel you require to go further go to the next step. Step 3 - Washing. Now the blinds have been dusted you can simply wipe using a good quality sponge, and a mild solution of warm water and soap Simple Ways to Clean Fabric Vertical Blinds (with Pictures Q: How do you clean sheer shades? - Sue B. A: Cleaning is a chore we have to keep up with so I try to keep each task as simple as possible! Sheer shades have a delicate fabric so we have to use some care, but this isn't a task you'll have to do too frequently. Dirt and grime can be removed with a sponge and mild dish soap or light vacuuming with the brush attachment Depending on the fabric of your folding blinds, you will have to wash them in different ways. For most textiles, you can remove them from the upper velcro and they can be machine washed at low temperature and ironed in the normal way. For other more delicate fabrics, it is best to avoid the washing machine as the fabric can deteriorate Repeat on either side of the louvre every time you give your room a quick once over and you're more likely to keep them looking fresh and clean. Washing Vertical Blinds. If your blind is small enough, you can remove the louvres to clean them. You just need a large, flat surface, a mild detergent and a damp cloth You cannot machine wash these. The person who says to wash them in the bath is spot on. If you machine wash them they will crease, dry out and then crack & split. You can also wipe them down in situ with a damp cloth and soapy water xx Cleaning Fabric Vertical Blinds. Fabric vertical blinds have an advantage over to curtains because you can replace faded or damaged slats individually rather than replacing the entire curtain Method 3 - Washing Machine. You can also clean the blinds in the washing machine if the washing instructions permit. Read the washing instructions carefully, else you will damage the blinds and render them unusable. If the washing instructions allow machine wash, follow the steps below. Remove the blinds from the railsand fold them in half I took a wash cloth and washed the blinds front and back. Then we quickly took the blinds to the adjacent shower and rinsed them off. I placed a few large beach towels on the bathroom floor. The blinds were laid on the towels and quickly dried after their bath. The gross results after 2-3 washings How to clean Wooden Blinds. Wooden blinds are very easy to clean, as long as you use the right techniques and products.. Dusting is one of the quickest and most effective methods for cleaning your wooden blinds. Use a slat cleaner, feather duster or a clean, dry cloth, wiping gently downwards so as not to not disturb the slats. Wipe once when the slats are open, and again when closed You can have vertical blinds cleaned by a professional cleaning company that uses ultrasonic cleaning techniques. Panel These materials can be cleaned with a soft brush or a sponge - they should NOT be washed in a washing machine and DO NOT immerse in water When cleaning vertical blinds, use a duster, or the brush attachment on your vacuum, and always clean in a downward motion. This prevents the blinds from becoming unhooked. After cleaning your window blinds. Once you've cleaned your window blinds or shades, don't forget the strings. Strings attract dust just like blinds do, and can quickly. You can't simply take the blinds down and shove them into the washing machine like you can with fabric curtains. However, we do have a solution for you if you want to clean your blinds but don't know where to start. Step 1 - Remove Loose Dirt and Prepare Cleaning Solutio For full removal of mould from the vertical blinds, water mixed with a natural cleaning product or detergent should be used. To do this, the following ways can be very helpful: Machine Washing. Machine washing is possible for most vertical blind fabrics. However, you must always check the instructions for washing on your first on the label If you're washing your blinds in a machine, it's crucial to protect them, too. To do it, you could roll the blinds up and wrap them in a pillowcase, making sure the fabric inside them won't fray. Also, if you're washing by hand, you can use washing-up liquid or stain remover to get at more resistant marks This will give you the confidence to wash the others. Most other types of vertical blind slats can simple be wiped over with washing up liquid diluted with water. Vertical blinds can also be cleaned ultrasonically, but this method could work out quite expensive - and it can sometimes be more economical to purchase a new set of slats Urban myth or not, Hillarys Blinds tell us that apparently you can wash Vertical blinds in the washing machine! There are a few rules that you must follow though and they are rather precise so here goes: If your vertical blinds are made of plastic, PVC etc. They are probably easier to clean by hand by wiping down with a damp cloth Squeeze out as much water as possible, you can also use a short washing machine spin for the same. If machine-washing to clean the vertical blinds, use a program for delicate washing. Step 4: Iron The Blinds Now iron the blinds, make sure to iron the curtains while they are still damp Cleaning with Washing Machine. This tip works well for vertical blinds made from fabric. But first, check the label on the blind to confirm if the cloth can withstand machine wash. Ensure you wash only the fabric, removing all metal extensions, clips, and weights. Avoid using hot water, since it can melt the glue that is present in the vertical. For machine washing, roll the blinds up and place them in an empty pillowcase. Wash them on the 'woollens & delicates' cycle, ensuring that the water does not heat above 40°C Depending on the material, fabric blinds can be either easier or harder to clean than harder types. Some fabric blinds can be cleaned in a washing machine with a mild detergent. Make sure if you do this that you set it for cleaning delicates Avoid putting fabric blinds in the washing machine: Over time, this will wear the material down and they may bobble or fade. Instead, take them to a professional dry cleaner. With these golden.. Soak the blinds in the tub for at least one hour. Remove the blinds from the tub and wipe any remaining dust away with a microfiber cloth. Wipe your blinds dry or hang them outside to air dry before placing them back in the window. Clean your tub so that you don't have to shower with dust bunnies at your feet Vertical Blinds are one of the most commonly seen blinds popular in almost any style or design setting. Vertical Blinds can be drawn to one side of the window/door or split equally to each side for a more balanced look. While vertical blinds accum.. How to clean vertical blinds Cleanipedi Designer vertical blinds are frequently fabric-covered, posing an extra challenge when it's time to clean them. Check the manufacturer's instructions for care and, if the blinds don't require dry-cleaning, use a double-grip, vertical blind-cleaning tool with a sponge on each side that clasps each slat Use the small ladder to reach the upper portion of the cloth vertical blinds. Make sure that the lint cloth is clean and damp before wiping the fabric fronts of your vertical blinds. Rinse and wring the lint cloth when it gets soiled. Clean the backside of your cloth vertical blinds in the same manner To spot clean, use a damp rag and dab at the spots. Do not rub! Cleaning Your Blinds Without Removing Them Let's face it. Cleaning window blinds can be a hassle. It's not as easy as cleaning curtains, which can be removed and thrown into a washing machine. When it comes to window blinds, cleaning is a little more hands-on Although many instructions say that the blinds can be washed in a washing machine at a temperature of 40 degrees, if you put them on at 40 degrees they may come out differently than when you have put them in. Fabric blinds can fray or snag, so if you want to wash them in a washing machine it is advisable to roll them up and place them in a soft pillow case You can either dip and rinse them in a bathtub, sink using any a mild detergent or else sponge them with the detergent solution by hanging them in the garden or terrace. Machine Washing - Use a front wash washing machine for rubber-backed drapes However cleaning vertical blinds yourself can be easy and effective. Many vertical blinds state they can be washed in a washing machine at 40 degrees but fabric blinds can fray very easily. If you want to machine wash your vertical blinds, roll them up and put them in an empty pillow case, use a gentle wash cycle for woollens and delicates If you choose to use a cleaning product on tough stains, make sure it's suitable for your blind fabric material to avoid damaging the blinds. It's also tempting to just remove the fabric from the headrail and toss it into the washing machine. However, most manufacturers recommend only washing blinds by hand To clean your vertical blinds, the first step is to establish a routine of cleanliness.Although horizontal blinds are more prone to showing dust and dirt, vertical blinds will become plenty grimy if they aren't cleaned regularly, so make sure you're attending to them at least once a month 6. Once you have washed all the blinds you are going to for the day - you have the perfect opportunity to wash the bathroom floor, as it will likely be quite wet! Outdoor Method for to Clean Mini Blinds. This method commonly used to clean mini blinds makes the least mess in the house, but the real reason I like it is because it is outside Top 3 Best Ways To Keep Vertical Blinds Clea I wash my blinds. remove all the slats, cords anything attached the weights. Line them up together add loose elastic/ string to keep together,put them in a pillow case and machine wash on 30 min cycle NO Spin, they come out so clean! So it is possible The input process of a washing machine are dirty clothes, detergent, and water are put into the washing machine. The washer washes the clothes and the output process is clean clothes Today, we will focus on how to clean fabric Vertical Blinds as they are the most popular types in the UK. Vertical Blinds are easier to maintain clean than most blind types since the dust don't pick up much on hanging slats. However, over time you might notice that your slats look a bit dirty I have cream vertical blinds (not out of choice - I'm a tenant!) and they are looking pretty grubby tbh. I have been told that they can go in the washing machine on a very cool wash, but don't fancy risking that if I've been advised wrongly - could do without having to replace them!! :eek: Any tips on the best way to get them clean again, please Add 2 or 3 cups of liquid bleach to the cold water as you fill the tub. Let the slats or blind soak in the bleach solution for about 10 minutes. Wear rubber gloves and use a sponge or rag to wipe.. Don't wash or dry-clean fabric vertical blinds. Clean vinyl or aluminum vertical blinds with a damp cloth. Leave a light film of detergent on the vanes to reduce static electricity. Final Tips for Washing Curtains Safely. Washing curtains and some valances in the washing machine is something you can tackle yourself at home (see tips on washing. How to clean roller blinds. Plain or pale-coloured roller blinds tend to show stains and marks more obviously than patterned or dark-coloured roller blinds, so if you're shopping for roller blinds in future, always look for ones made from a fabric that can be wiped clean for easier maintenance With a sponge and soapy water, wash the full length of each slat, both sides, until clean. (Vinyl vanes can also be removed and immersed in water.) Rinse and wipe dry with clean, dry cloth. Sheer fabric vertical blinds can be washed by unsnapping the fabric from the vanes How to Clean Vertical Blinds Step-by-Step Guide to a If plastic or aluminum blinds still have stains after routine cleaning, you can try a bleach bath. To do so, fill a bathtub with cold water and add 2 to 3 cups of bleach. Remove the blinds from your windows and place them in the bleach bath. Make sure to submerge every part of your blinds in the water and soak them for at least 10 minutes Allow to air dry (as heat can set a stain). Deep Cleaning . If you've let your blinds or shades accumulate dirt or if spot-cleaning just isn't getting the job done, it's time to give your blinds or shades a bath. Carefully remove them, unstring them if need be, and vacuum them well Washing the Drapes. IMPORTANT: Before attempting to wash your draperies, CHECK THE TAGS. Some draperies should ONLY BE CLEANED PROFESSIONALLY. NEVER wash them if: They are not specifically labeled as washable (if they are lined, make sure BOTH the drapery fabric and the lining are listed as machine washable) Machine Washing the Fabric on your Vertical Blinds. Before machine washing your blind fabrics it is imperative you make sure that they are indeed machine washable. To machine wash your blinds you should: Remove the fabric from the blinds; Roll the fabric into a coil; Place them into a pillowcase (to protect them Do not immerse in water or dry clean. Exception: Sheer fabric vertical blinds can be washed by unsnapping the fabric from the vanes. Wash on gentle cycle with Woolite, line dry, press or steam on low, snap fabric back on vanes. Do not steam or iron fabric while it is on the vanes as they will be damaged. Do not put fabric in the dryer How to Clean Vertical Blinds Since vertical blinds come in a variety of materials the cleaning instructions can vary a bit. When it comes to cleaning fabric vertical blinds you can hand wash them in cold water with gentle detergent or put them in a wash bag (for extra protection) and throw them in the washing machine on a cool gentle cycle As you can see, to remove the blinds from the window to wash, it will not be difficult if you understand all the nuances. Wash the blinds at home for a couple of minutes Many may be interested in the question of how quickly to clean the blinds, if they have accumulated a lot of dust Vertical blinds can be a nightmare to clean but if left to gather dust and cobwebs they are a nightmare to look at. You need to dust them regularly as you do the rest of your home. Wash Blinds in the Washing Machine. Blinds, Awnings and Plantation Shutters in Leighton Buzzard, Luton, Dunstable, St Albans, Harpenden and surrounding areas Hunter Douglas manufactures beautiful, low-maintenance window shades that are easy to clean. Luminette sheers allow light to filter through and still provide lots of privacy. Because Luminette sheers are made from a delicate fabric, Hunter Douglas recommends only some cleaning techniques for them, but don't worry Best Way to Clean a Washing Machine How to Clean the Outside of a Washing Machine. Remove the control knobs if they come off, and wash them in the sink. Wipe down the exterior of the washing machine with a microfiber cloth and all-purpose cleaner. If you have someone to help you, scooch the machine away from the wall to vacuum behind it. Some. clean rags and a bucket, a scrub brush, a big tub and . a stepladder. Lower the blinds to make cleaning easier. & # 39; Sound. While you can clean vertical blinds on the spot, you will have a much easier time removing them and cleaning them in the tub. Use the drawstring to pull the blades together at one end of the guide If it is possible to remove them from their heading with ease, you can sometimes place them in the washing machine for a proper clean but not all blinds or fabrics will allow for this. Regular Cleaning. Much like with our guide to cleaning vertical blinds, it is important to keep up to the regular cleaning of your roman blinds. This way it is. These small contaminants can be inhaled. Pressure washing and steam cleaning can ruin the blinds' surface. Household cleaners can remove paint or stain the blinds. You can't effectively clean the intricate parts of your blinds like our ultrasonic cleaning equipment How to clean your vertical blind - YouTub 9. To clean metal and vinyl blinds, follow this method: Take the blinds outside to your patio or driveway and lay them on a small rug or piece of carpet. Put a few drops of dishwashing soap in a bucket of water. Wet a car-washing brush and brush the blinds from side to side, and then turn them over and brush the other side Machine wash Check the washing instructions and material of your fabric blinds before resorting to a washing machine. Many vertical blind slats can be washed at 40 degrees, but washing at 30 degrees is preferable. Aside from saving energy and being just as effective, it is less likely to cause fraying or, for non-stitched slats, melt any. Clean the tapes on the edge of the blinds as well. 6 Drain the water and stand the blind on its side in the bathtub. Pour clean water over the blind to rinse away any leftover soap. You can use a bucket or turn on the shower head. Then lean the clean blind standing on end against the wall. Allow 30 minutes or so for it to drain How to Clean Mould from Vertical Blinds at Home? (6 Proven Although washing machine instructions usually say that you can safely wash your blinds at 40 degrees it is recommended to roll the fabric slats and place them in a pillowcase or a fabric bag before placing in the machine. If you put them straight in the machine you might find out later that they fray and snag. Instead of washing at 40 degrees. Washing Vertical Blinds in Dishwasher Cleaning your vertical blinds might seem challenging, but cleaning them with your dishwasher or washing machine might be much easier than you'd anticipate. Allow your blinds to cool for a few hours after placing these clothes in the dishwasher and washing them Take the blinds off the top hooks. Place them on top of each other as you remove each one. Place the blinds into the washing machine. Fill with cold water. Use light liquid soap, depending on the fabric. Let them soak. Use the delicate cycle for a short time while watching over it. Do not use a regular cycle as this may fray the fabric Use 2 tablespoons of Super Washing Soda per gallon of warm water if pre-soaking in a small tub, or use ½ cup if pre-soaking in a filled washing machine. Pre-soak for at least 30 minutes before washing. Wash with ½ cup of Super Washing Soda in the wash cycle, in addition to your usual detergent things i learnt today the hard way you can not i repeat you can not wash yer vertical blinds in the washing machine it will end badly by badly i mean really fuck u
0.984766	Physicists have detected “ghost particles” in the Large Hadron Collider for the first time. An experiment called FASER picked up signals of neutrinos being produced in particle collisions, which can help scientists better understand key physics. Physics The antimatter enigma: What is it and why didn't it destroy the universe? Normal matter has an “evil twin” that annihilates on contact, and despite decades of study antimatter remains very mysterious. So what actually is it? Where is it? Why is it important to understand? And why hasn’t it already destroyed the universe? Physics Particle seen switching between matter and antimatter at CERN A subatomic particle has been found switching between matter and antimatter, in Large Hadron Collider data. It turns out an unfathomably tiny weight difference between two particles could have saved the universe from annihilation soon after it began. Physics CERN's powerful new linear accelerator fires up ahead of LHC upgrade After a two-year shutdown for repairs and upgrades, CERN’s Large Hadron Collider is beginning to fire back up. The newest particle accelerator, Linac 4, completed its first test run over the past few weeks, and will produce much more powerful beams. Physics Higgs boson examined as source of dark matter at the LHC It’s been calculated that dark matter is around five times more common than regular matter – and yet, we still haven’t directly detected it. Now CERN has joined the hunt, testing whether the famous Higgs boson could decay into dark matter. Medical Mini particle-accelerator-on-a-computer-chip could help blast cancer Particle accelerators could be incredibly useful for medicine – if they weren’t so huge. Now, scientists at Stanford have managed to shrink the tech down to fit on a computer chip, which could lead to more precise cancer radiation therapies. Energy The Large Hadron Collider will soon help heat nearby homes CERN’s Large Hadron Collider (LHC) has made some groundbreaking discoveries for physics, but it’s hard to tell how exactly that benefits the average Joe/Jill. Now CERN has announced that the LHC will soon divert some of the waste heat from the collider to help heat thousands of nearby homes. Physics CERN's proposed 100-km particle accelerator would run rings around the LHC CERN, the European research organization responsible for operating the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), has released a report outlining a proposed particle accelerator that would be nearly four times as long and 10 times as powerful as its predecessor. Physics Large Hadron Collider upgrades to pave the way for higher energy collisions Scientists at CERN have switched off the Large Hadron Collider following its second round of experiments, gearing it up for a third run that will see particles smashed together harder than ever before. Physics Large Hadron Collider: 10 years of pushing the frontiers of physics The Large Hadron Collider has been responsible for some of the most important breakthroughs in scientific history, most notably the discovery of the Higgs boson in 2013. New Atlas is celebrating the 10-year anniversary with a look back at its achievements and what it could help solve in the future. Physics Mini antimatter accelerator to open doors to particle physics mysteries Particle accelerators have plenty to teach us, but these facilities involve kilometers of tunnels and equipment. Now, researchers at Imperial College London have developed a new way to accelerate antimatter particles using common equipment already found in many labs, in a much smaller space. Medical CERN chip enables first 3D color X-ray images of the human body Medical X-ray scans have long been stuck in the black-and-white era. Now Mars Bioimaging has developed a bioimaging scanner that can produce full color, three dimensional images of bones, lipids, and soft tissue, thanks to a sensor chip developed at CERN for use in the Large Hadron Collider.
0.972768	What’s the first thing you think about when you hear “Lake Como”? For me there are a few things that come to mind: money, George Clooney, money, villas, money, Aperol Spritz, and oh…did I mention money? Luckily it’s possible to see a lot of Lake Como, Italy on a budget, without spending too much money. I came to Lake Como to celebrate my 27th birthday, and in a lot of settings, I was still the youngest person present (YES!). But that doesn’t mean that coming to Como is going to mean you’re kicking it with grannies the whole time – a lot of areas are also popular with families on vacation and couples looking for a time-out on the weekend. If you’re planning a trip to Italy, I hope you won’t pass up Lake Como – it totally exceeded my expectations in terms of how beautiful it was and how much I enjoyed myself. Here are some quick facts to get you started on your trip! Can you visit Italy now? (In 2021) Nation-wide cases of COVID are down in Italy, but there are certain hotspots to be aware of. You can check the specific city or region you plan to visit in advance. As with most of Europe, you'll need to fill out a Passenger Locator Form (PLF) before entering the country. Passengers from the US, UK, Canada, and of course the rest of Europe are permitted so long as they present the PLF, a COVID-19 Green Pass for European visitors (or for Canada, Japan, and the US, you can also obtain this pass), and a negative PCR or antigen test within 72 hours prior to arrival in Italy. You can find the latest information on Italy's tourism website. Some links in this post are to affiliate sites. If you purchase something through them, I may earn a small comission — which costs you nothing! I am very grateful when you use my links to make a purchase. Here’s what you’ll see in three days on Lake Como, Italy Menaggio, Villa Carlotta, & Villa Balbianello Como, Nesso, & Bellagio Varenna & Bellano Duration 3 days Dates traveled 16 Jun - 19 Jun Recommended Accommodation on Lake Como Of the places we stayed near Lake Como, these were my favorites and places I would love to return to: Hotel Il Perlo Panoramico was our favorite place we stayed at on Lake Como. Fabulous premises with an amazing view over Bellagio . It’s too far to walk into town, but they offer a shuttle several times a day. If you go around sunset, you’ll have no trouble finding parking a 15 minute walk outside of town. They have wine tastings, a lovely breakfast, and the best view over Bellagio in my opinion. Hotel Bellavista Located very centrally in Menaggio , and provides a beautiful view over the lake and excellent A/C for those summer months. Skip the hotel restaurant and go into town instead. Very convenient location for driving to Villa Balbianello and Villa Carlotta first thing in the morning 😉 Best (And Affordable!) Places to Stay in Lake Como, Italy My top tips for where to stay in Lake Como: Specific hotel recommendations, tips for choosing accommodation, what to look for, and the best towns to stay in near Lake Como. Related post Where to eat around Lake Como My favorite meal on this trip was at Ristorante Bilacus in Bellagio! It’s not on street level, so if you can find it, it’s unlikely to be too busy. Solid prices, good portions, and perfect for people watching. Before you go Although it’s not strictly necessary to rent a car to explore Como, it will change your experience quite a bit! Without a car, you will have to stick to the main towns or haul around your luggage on a bus. How to get there There are a ton of cheap flights into the Milan airport at Bergamo, you can get here for $30 with Ryanair or other low cost carriers. This is also a great reason to come for an extended weekend – you can fit everything you’ll need into a carry-on! Tour Lake Como by boat I want to mention just briefly two options for boat tours around Lake Como, which you can keep in mind while you’re reading this itinerary. Many of the places I’ve listed are also accessible as part of a boat tour, particularly my favorite towns and a few off-beat spots. Especially if you’re not renting a car, you may want to take a boat tour to see a few places mentioned in this guide. From Milan: Lake Como, Bellagio and Varenna Full-Day Tour – There are several tours that’ll take you from Milan to Lake Como. But this is the only one from Milan that goes to my two favorite towns, Bellagio and Varenna. This is helpful if you don’t have a ton of time at Lake Como but want a taste of why everyone loves it here 😉 From Lecco: Lake Como Full-Day Boat Cruise – This tour visits my two favorite towns on Lake Como, Varenna and Bellagio . But it’s also the only tour that visits Nesso (the photo from the header of this post!). If you aren’t renting a car, I recommend trying this tour so you have a chance to visit Nesso and get a nice photo from the water! Lake Como, Italy 3-day itinerary Day 1: Menaggio, Villa Carlotta, & Villa Balbianello Lake Como is shaped like an upside down Y. On our trip, we will start on the west side of the lake, and drive down the coast to reach our various destinations. Menaggio There are three main places you’re going to want to see on Lake Como, Italy: Menaggio, Bellagio, and Varenna. These three are well-connected by ferry, and provide some of the best options for food and accomodation around the lake. It’s also possible to stay in one of the many smaller towns, especially if you’re driving by car. When you’re in Menaggio, don’t miss grabbing an ice cream on the main square and taking a walk down the promenade. There are some churches in town as well which you can check out, but nothing too spectacular. Most of your time will be spent sitting at a cafe, enjoying the sunshine, and possibly taking a boat ride out on the lake. Most of the things to do near Menaggio are further down the coast, in the form of two villas: Villa Carlotta and Villa Balbianello. Villa Carlotta The thing that stands out about Village Carlotta is its expansive gardens. While the interior is pretty similar to many other villas, the gardens stretch out for ages, and there are a lot of different paths you can take depending on how much time you want to spend there. You’ll find huge hubs of hydrangeas, panoramic lookout spots, even a gorge that looks like an overgrown jungle. Giant rhubarb also flourishes here, looking like something out of prehistoric times. Hours pass by quickly as you weave between bushes and snap photos of flowers framing the lake. Besides the gardens, there’s also an exhibit about the process of making silk. You can learn about silk worms themselves, how silk is made, and the history behind silk. In addition, of course, is a lot of rennaissance art and classical-style statues. Villa Balbianello This place has an incredible story. You probably know it best from the set of Star Wars or a James Bond flick, but besides being a filming location, it was also the home of an Italian explorer. Count Guido Monzino, the last person to live in this villa, was the first Italian to lead an expedition to Mount Everest. With a guided tour, you can go inside the house and try to discover all its secrets.You’ll find secret passageways, hidden compartments, and trapdoors in this maze of a home. Tours are offered in English, and cost about 20 EUR to access the interior and the gardens. One of its many oddities is the dome-shaped tree, which is trimmed by gardeners by hand every winter over the course of three weeks. It was specifically designed this way to preserve the view from the lake from inside the villa. The last person to live in the villa, Count Guido Monzino, lived a life of adventure and decadance. This was his smoking room, with walls lined with wood that would absorb the smell of smoke. It’s hard to believe that he was living somewhat that looked like this in the 70s. Clearly a man from another time! If you’re inspired by the location, you can get on a two-year waiting list to be married here – with a minimum downpayment of 15,000 euros for the venue alone. After a long day of viewing villas, crash for the night in Menaggio and wake up the next morning for three completely unique adventures around Lake Como! Day 2: Como, Nesso, & Bellagio Today is one of our busiest days, as we hit three very different locations: Como, the largest city on the lake, Nesso, a tiny village you can easily drive past which is perched atop a waterfall, and Bellagio, a glamourous and historical town known as the “jewel of Lake Como”. Como A lot of guides will tell you to skip Como, as it’s kind of a bigger city and you’re at Lake Como to explore towns instead, right? To be honest, I was unfairly biased against Como. Even though it’s much more populated, there’s no shortage of gelato or beautiful Italian alleyways in this ciy. Perhaps its most famous sight is the Cathedral of Como, which becomes visible almost as soon as you approach the city by car or boat. In fact, it’s one of the few cathedrals around the lake with a notable interior. I’m not a huge “church person” but if you enjoy a good cathedral, don’t miss popping in while you’re here. Second to the cathedral, Como is also famous as the home of Alessandro Volta. This guy invented the modern battery, and is memorialized in a monument along the pier. It costs money to go inside so we simply skipped it, but it surely made for a nice photo backdrop 😉 Tempio Voltiano, Como, Italy Enjoying this post? Sign up for my newsletter for a once-a-week email with new posts on the blog, travel tips and deals, as well as exclusive content. No spam, unsubscribe anytime. Yes please! travel italy lake como Nesso Next is Nesso, one of the cutest spots along Lake Como – if you can find it. Nesso is a bit mislabeled on Google Maps, and if you follow where the map labels and Nesso, you’re likely to go up some steep and curvy italian roads and end up at a dead end. Nesso is actually right along the road, and you can accidentally drive right through on your quest to find it. FINDING NESSO: Look for signs while you approach for Orrido di Nesso, or, on Google Maps, Falls and Orrido for the waterfall and Ponte Della Civera for the bridge itself (accessible only by foot). You may have to park a ways outside of town, and walk, in order to have somewhere to put your car, as there is very limited parking in town. Alternatively, you can take a boat tour to Nesso directly from Lecco. After arriving in Nesso, you’ll find signs that direct you to the base of the waterfalls down a long set of uneven, rocky stairs. At the bottom is an area is popular for swimming with the locals, despite the fact that Lake Como is freezing in June. If you’re feeling adventurous, you can even swim to the foot of the waterfall through the ravine. After your adventure to the bottom, you can stop at the top for a tiny beer to relax and spend a little time out of the sun. After that we’re going to Bellagio! Bellagio Bellagio is a very beautiful town, and easily the most famous on Lake Como – for this reason it’s also the most touristy, and can be packed full of people during the peak hours of the day. To avoid crowds, come to Bellagio around 6pm as the town starts to empty out. It’ll be much easier to park your car and still early enough to get a seat at a restaurant in town. PARKING NEAR BELLAGIO: There are a number of parking lots outside of town, many of which will let you park for free. You just have to walk 15 minutes or so into the center. Ideally your hotel will have a nice map for you of where you can park. What makes Bellagio so special is definitely its narrow alleys and stony streets. You can grab a gelato almost anywhere and enjoy exploring all the parts of town - which honestly won’t take you that long, since Bellagio is so tiny. The town has two main areas to explore - the inner town and the area on the lakefront. When you arrive, you’re likely to come into down and have a lot of small streets to explore (and/or share with motorcyclists trying to bust through the crowds). Once you find the most famous street around the entire Lake (pictured below), you can walk down to the promenade where you’ll find even more restaurants with beautiful views. A post shared by Monica @ notanomadblog.com (@notanomadblog) on Jun 24, 2017 at 2:24pm PDT My one recommendation for food on this trip is found in Bellagio, called Ristorante Bilacus It’s not on street level, so if you can find it, it’s unlikely to be too busy. That said, it did fill up when we were there between 7 and 8pm so do be punctual if you want to compete for a spot for dinner! Aperol Spritz with every meal – I’m not complaining! Where to stay in Bellagio We loved Hotel Il Perlo Panoramico . It’s outside of town, so you can’t walk there, but you can either take one of their shuttles during peak hours or simply drive in yourself afterhours. The rooms were super stylish and the view was out of this world. They have nightly wine tastings as well - I wish we had stayed longer! Day 3: Varenna & Bellano If there’s somewhere I really would’ve liked to have spent more time, it would be Varenna. People seem to miss it, favoring Bellagio instead, while I found the town just as charming without being overrun by tourists. It still has all the things you expact from one of these cute lakeside villages: narrow passageways, colorful buildings, and delicious pizza. Check check check! Varenna If you’re coming to Varenna by car from Bellagio, it’s most effective to do so by ferry. You can check the timetable of the ferries the day before when you’re in Bellagio, and plan to be in the row for the right destination at least 20 minutes in advance (I’d rather recommend 30-40 minutes depending on if you’re here during the high Summer season). You can buy a ticket for yourself and the car, and pop out to grab an ice cream while you wait for your boat to arrive. Approaching Varenna by boat doesn’t take long, but be sure to have your camera out – these are views you can’t get of the town from anywhere else on land! There’s not so much to do in Varenna besides walk around and explore. If you fancy a bite to eat, there are tons of places to go along the lakefront. When you arrive by ferry, follow the promenade to the right to find more of the town and more activities. After a solid afternoon in Varenna, it’s time to wrap up our trip to Lake Como by visiting Bellano! Hop in the car and get driving. Quick tip: How to use the ferry at Lake Como Using the ferry at Lake Como is pretty simple. You just want to be early (about 30 minutes early) for your boat ride, and you can pay the same morning to either ride across the ferry as a person or even with your car. It is not possible to make a reservation. Taking a car costs just 4 € plus the cost for each passenger, 1,80 € each. You can find more details about the ferry timetable and detailed fare information online. Bellano Similarly to the Orrido di Nesso, here you’re going to want to look for the Orrido di Bellano. Again - don’t trust Google Maps, just pay attention to the signs that will lead you to the best place to park. There’s a small entrance fee to access the gorge, but I think it’s well worth it. Inside you’ll find walkways that connect canyon walls together so you can explore the inside of the orrido. You don’t need more than 30-45 minutes to explore this area, but you’ll be glad you did! That’s a wrap! Have you been to Lake Como? Which of these places have you seen? Let me know in the comments which was your favorite, or if I’m missing anywhere amazing around the Lake! Enjoying this post? Sign up for my newsletter for a once-a-week email with new posts on the blog, travel tips and deals, as well as exclusive content. No spam, unsubscribe anytime. Yes please! travel italy lake como …pin this post for later! About the author Hi there! I'm Monica, an American expat living in Germany for over six years and using every opportunity to explore the world from my homebase in Berlin. My goal is to capture my memories in photos and posts that show how easy it is to start from scratch and travel the world by working abroad. Follow along on Instagram, Twitter, Bloglovin, & Facebook. You might also like... travel A Super Efficient Guide to Visiting Meteora, Greece in 2021 travel An Efficient 3-day Amalfi Coast Itinerary for 2021 travel An Ultra-efficient Garden Route Itinerary for 5 Days Sign up for my newsletter for a once-a-week email with new posts on the blog, travel tips and deals, as well as exclusive content! Yes, please! Pinterest Instagram Twitter Bloglovin Facebook RSS Content and photos © 2020 Monica Lent. 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0.999988	San Diego’s proposal to allow many businesses to eliminate their parking spots passed a key test last week when a City Council committee voted 3-1 to support the change after a contentious hearing. The vote, with only Councilmember Marni von Wilpert opposed, makes it likely the proposal will get support from at least five members of the full nine-member council next month. Supporters say it makes sense to give businesses latitude to decide how many parking spots they need, especially with more San Diego residents commuting by transit, bicycles and ride-booking services like Uber and Lyft. They also say fewer parking spots at businesses would encourage more people to commute and get to shopping areas by mass transit, bicycle or by walking, which would help the city meet the goals of its legally binding climate action plan. For the balance of this article, please go here. Many San Diego businesses would no longer have to provide parking under policy proposal By David Garrick / SD U-T / June 5, 2021 Many businesses in San Diego would no longer need to provide parking spaces for customers under a controversial new proposal that aims to accelerate efforts to make the city less car-reliant and more climate-friendly. The proposal, which the City Council is scheduled to vote on next month, would eliminate parking requirements for businesses located near mass transit or in small plazas near dense residential areas. New businesses in those areas would no longer have to provide any parking spaces for customers or staff. And existing businesses could immediately transform their parking spots into outdoor dining or extra retail space. City officials say it makes sense to allow businesses — not city officials — to decide how many parking spots they need, especially with more San Diego residents commuting by transit, bicycles and ride-booking services like Uber and Lyft. The balance here. Share this: Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window) Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window) More Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window) Click to print (Opens in new window) Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window) Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window) Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window) { 16 comments… read them below or add one } Paul Webb June 25, 2021 at 12:17 pm You don’t have to be an expert to understand that there is one critical factor in the success of a small business: access. When developers look at a property for commercial development, one of the key metrics is average daily traffic on the adjacent streets and roads. The higher the traffic volumes, the more likely the site will be a successful commercial development. I have been told this by commercial property developers many, many times over the course of my career. And what happens when one of those automobile drivers decides to visit your business? He/she will look for a place to park. If there is none, you may have just lost a customer. I have lived in the same home for about 35 years. There are several storefronts within a few blocks of my home that I have seen cycled through business after business, most not lasting even one year. The common denominator of these locations? No off-street parking and only very limited on-street parking. Whenever I see a new business open in these sites, I mark the date on my calendar to see how long they stay in business. Makes me feel like the grim reaper, knowing that the hopes, dreams and financial investment these folks are making are going to vanish. Just today I saw the latest business in one of the spots I follow put up its “going out of business sale” signs and banners. It is very sad. Even sadder is the fact that our elected representatives just don’t get it. You cannot have a successful retail business if your customers cannot get to you. Reply Geoff Page June 25, 2021 at 3:26 pm I agree. Paul. This is the reason why shopping in downtown OB is so hard. If you can ride a bike all the time for everything you want from Newport or Santa Monica, then it’s ok. But, if you need to take a car, it is really a pain to find a parking spot. Because of that. it is easier to go over to Midway where the bigger stores have parking. When I read about this thing yesterday I saw red. All they are doing is putting ridiculous pressure on the available 0n-street parking people need in their neighborhoods. This is a really stupid idea. Reply Stu June 28, 2021 at 12:11 pm I sometimes drive, I perfer to bike, but when I drive I’ll often park a block or so away east of Sunset cliffs and walk the last few block. I have an RV and when we are going to a strange town we’ll do a drive through and then park blocks a way from our destination and ride bikes. I have found it way easier and healthier to walk a few blocks than drive. I know this won’t always work but its is nice when it does Reply Geoff Page June 28, 2021 at 4:06 pm Stu, I’ve used that same method in OB, I’d put a bike in my truck bed and park east of Sunset Cliffs on a busy summer day. But, even before the increased traffic and the removal of many parking spots downtown, it was hard to park west of Sunset Cliffs. Remember, everything around Newport is residential. All this will do is push more and more people out into the surrounding neighborhoods, which makes it tougher on residences. This extreme step is not the way to go. Reply kh June 25, 2021 at 8:26 pm Well the traffic counts will be through the roof then with all the cars circling looking for parking. Reply Frank J June 25, 2021 at 5:31 pm I also agree with Paul and Geoff. Just who are these supporters? If you are a small restaurant, do you put 6 tables in 6 parking spots your diners need? What other business could this apply to? Hard for me to believe this should even be an issue, that anyone will be ‘encouraged’ to use other transport, and the city council took the time to review and vote without more important issues to address. Reply kh June 25, 2021 at 8:31 pm Supported by developers and environmentalists. Cars are evil and hey we can cram even more square footage into this property now. It’s no big deal, after the customers circle the block a few times they can park in front of my place. At least they’ll get more exercise. Reply nostalgic June 25, 2021 at 5:43 pm It is possible that the buildings will be built by developers, and the businesses owned by the renters. Renters come and go and mostly pay the rent until they go. It is the developers who will benefit. Are apartments next, where owners pledge to rent only to bicyclists? Reply Geoff Page June 26, 2021 at 12:34 pm Well, I’ll tell you a fix I’d like to see. New accessory dwelling units even as big as 1,000/SF and more, can be built with no provisions for parking if mass transit is within a certain distance, a half mile or a quarter mile, I believe. The fix we need is a provision in those rental contracts the the renter would have to sign saying they did not have a car. There is a new one of these on my already crowded block and the first renter has a car. It is going to be chaos. Reply kh June 26, 2021 at 9:42 pm Oh we can do better than that. Try 1200 sq ft, up to 30’ tall, and you can build it in place of an existing garage, removing all offstreet parking from the property while also adding no new parking. And on many lots you can build 2 ADUs, with up to 800 sf exempt from maximum FAR. And you can stick em right on the property line. Reply Gyreand June 25, 2021 at 8:50 pm San Diego mass transit sucks. Loud buses and trolleys that are constantly shifting and bouncing, uncomfortable stops that are open to the elements, uncomfortable seating, annoying and disrespectful passengers, and the absolute lack of restroom facilities at any stop or station (due to the increasing numbers of transients likely to vandalize or harass?) make the promotion of the use of San Diego mass transit a huge obstacle on the path toward meeting environmental goals. Taking the bus/trolley to go shopping is a dead-last resort for most San Diegans. I guess a forced lack of parking will get people to shop elsewhere (can’t imagine riding a bike to go shopping there – what a hassle that would be!). Good thinking… NOT! SOLUTION: Make the buses and trolley cars QUIET, smaller and patrolled by guards, make clean, patrolled restrooms PLENTIFUL, give all the stops some sheltered seating – but I guess all that would be cost-prohibitive. Oh well, whatever, never mind. Think I’ll drive on out of here. Reply Rick June 27, 2021 at 2:11 pm If someone must drive, perhaps parking for free on the east side of Sunset Cliffs and walking the three or four blocks might actually improve one’s health. Of course there’s plenty of paid parking spaces. The issue isn’t available vehicle parking, it’s free parking. Reply Paul Webb June 30, 2021 at 10:12 am Well, yeah, of course. But once you become accustomed to receiving something for free, it feels like you are having something taken away from you when you suddenly have to start paying for it. I swear that our elected officials and paid city staff are doing everything they can to make our city unlivable – eliminating single family zoning, allowing 10 units on virtually every property in the city without requiring parking (admittedly, that is a state effort proposed in SB10, but supported by our local “leaders”), allowing ADUs on virtually every property without parking, massively oversized redevelopment of the sports arena property, 350 foot tall towers on the NavWars site, etc. It is nothing short of insane. Reply kh July 1, 2021 at 3:11 pm Free parking was never free. The developers of commercial and residential property pay to provide it, and pay for the land it’s on. It is/was considered part of their duty to protect neighbors and other land uses from the impacts of their operations. Just the same as providing trash service, or having noise restrictions. If paying for trash collection is too much of a burden for developers does that justify piling their trash in front of peoples homes to deal with? If shutting down music at 10pm is too burdensome should the neighbors just not be allowed to get any sleep? Providing parking is one of many social contracts part of being a good neighbor. Reply Geoff Page July 1, 2021 at 3:31 pm That’s the way to tell it, kh, very well said. Reply kh July 1, 2021 at 5:28 pm Also the code does not require the parking to be free, it just requires that it exist. La Dona charges more to park for a meal than what I normally spend on a meal elsewhere. But it still satisfies the code requirement. If someone is allowed to build a large restaurant or business or condo without parking to encourage alternative transportation, then they should only be allowed to serve people who bike or take a bus. If you think that’s ludicrous I agree with you. Reply Cancel reply Leave a Comment Name * E-mail * Website Want to be notified of follow-up comments by email? Click the box! You can also subscribe without commenting. Δ Older Article: Want to Improve Police Stop Disparities? Hold the Chief Responsible for Addressing Them. Newer Article: San Diego Preparing Green Bins for Game-Changing Recycling Law Search the OB Rag Search for: Recent Comments Douglas Blackwood November 27, 2021 at 7:24 pm on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula PlannersI been living, & driving OB: this time around for 30+ years! The last 20 years: quality of life has progressively gotten worse; including speeders!... Geoff Page November 27, 2021 at 5:30 pm on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula PlannersThe answer, Ace, is what Paul Webb, quoted in this article ENFORCEMENT. When was the last time you saw the PD giving out speeding tickets... Geoff Page November 27, 2021 at 5:28 pm on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula PlannersWell, Nathan, that was a whole lot of words that said nothing. "Privileged shoulders?" What exactly does that mean? Neither the size of my bank... BARBARA LEWIS November 27, 2021 at 1:13 pm on Showing Love for the Children Down Mexico WaySO "HUMAN"...wishing this could become the norm. Nathan J November 26, 2021 at 9:58 pm on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula PlannersI read this site occasionally because it’s “local” and I like to support that. However, when its small handful of routine writers have such chips... Obob November 26, 2021 at 4:34 pm on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula Plannersyou know who is on the Ob planning board you want input from? absolute crazy driving buzz sawing half the time out of town second... Alex Roxburgh November 26, 2021 at 7:31 am on Willie Closes His Shoe Shine ShopYour an original icon of Ocean Beach Willie.. Thank you for your service in the military, and for being an awesome human being. Viva9210B ACE November 26, 2021 at 7:04 am on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula PlannersThis has been an interesting discussion..Froude street being half on OB side Half on PL side is sort of a step child nobody wants to... Geoff Page November 25, 2021 at 2:20 pm on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula PlannersThere is a practical and reasonable suggestion. Geoff Page November 25, 2021 at 2:13 pm on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula PlannersEvery advocacy group has its extremists, there is nothing pejorative about that term. Geoff Page November 25, 2021 at 2:11 pm on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula PlannersNo, I'd have to disagree. The piece does what is needed, provides information to people unaware of what is happening and it stimulates discussion. Geoff Page November 25, 2021 at 2:09 pm on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula PlannersYou are correct, Lyle. But, there is a difference. Venice is not crisscrossed with street dips as Froude is. Froude already has built-in speed mitigation.... GML November 25, 2021 at 1:13 pm on Restaurant Review: La Doña in Ocean BeachWhile some of your complaints are valid I do not believe the QR menu or paper straw should be considered a con. They are both... Paul Webb November 25, 2021 at 9:55 am on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula PlannersThe City has routinely applied new Land Use Code provisions in the coastal zone before the CCC has certified the changes to the Local Coastal... Paul Webb November 25, 2021 at 9:49 am on Extreme Bicyclists Hold Sway Over Peninsula PlannersSo, basically what you are saying is that Froude is exactly like every other parallel street in OB/Point Loma. I live on Guizot, which does... 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0.999437	As I have written before: "the claim of a 'right' to dispense death arbitrarily -- the claim that the State may murder anyone it chooses, whenever it desires -- constitutes a separate category altogether, a category of which this particular claim is the sole unit. When death is unleashed, all possibility of action is ended forever." For this reason -- and it is the only reason required -- it is not "perfectly rational and reasonable" to decide that "the evils of their candidate [Obama] are outweighed by the evils of the GOP candidate." There is no evil beyond the claimed "right" to murder by arbitrary edict, to murder anyone, anywhere, anytime. If you support this particular evil -- and if you vote for Obama, you support it -- then you will support anything. The fuller argument will be found in the preceding article. Almost all Americans remain blithely unaware of the meaning and implications of their government's unrestricted program of murder, a program which targets anyone the State chooses, for any reason it identifies -- or refuses to identify. To be precise, we should say that almost all Americans refuse to acknowledge the meaning and implications of the State's murder program. If the State can -- and does -- murder anyone it chooses, there is nothing it cannot do. It can order the torture of human beings, directly or indirectly. It can detain individuals indefinitely, even when they are never charged with any crime, and with no hope for release. The United States government already does all these things. When I say that if you support the evil of arbitrary murder, you will support anything, I am not exaggerating in any manner at all. I am stating precisely the nature of the evil to which so many people grant their approval. To dispel any doubt on this point, you only need read an article dated October 23, 2012, about the State's murder program in the Washington Post. The article is preceded by this note: Editor’s note: This project, based on interviews with dozens of current and former national security officials, intelligence analysts and others, examines evolving U.S. counterterrorism policies and the practice of targeted killing. This is the first of three stories. Given this identification of the article's sources, what I said about the NYT article concerning the government's Kill List is equally true of the Washington Post stories: [T]his in effect announces the identity of the article's true author: the author is the U.S. government, the State itself. Through these "advisers," the highest levels of the U.S. government have told the story they want to tell. And what is that story? It is simply this: The State is become death. Our target can be anyone we choose. Yes, this means you. No, there is nowhere to run. It is not every day that the State announces in the august pages of "the paper of record" that its primary program, the central mission to which it patiently and carefully devotes its vast resources, is the elimination of human life, wherever, whenever and to whatever extent it wishes. Americans cannot legitimately claim ignorance of the immense evil being perpetrated by their government. They will not be able to claim, as others have tried to do in the past: "We never knew about the horrors that were being committed. How can you believe that we knew about that?" Americans know all about it, in horrifying, endless detail. The State wants them to know. But the State knows that almost all Americans will refuse to admit what it means. Americans have chosen to sleepwalk blindly into the mouth of Hell. If these horrors should be practiced on a much broader scale, with the victims numbering in the many thousands, or even millions -- and depending on events, they well might be -- many Americans will no doubt plead ignorance despite the fact that the knowledge was freely and eagerly provided to them. They will ask for forgiveness. They should not be granted it, not by anyone who remains at all civilized, who is still human in the true meaning of that word. Read the opening section of the Washington Post article: Over the past two years, the Obama administration has been secretly developing a new blueprint for pursuing terrorists, a next-generation targeting list called the “disposition matrix.” The matrix contains the names of terrorism suspects arrayed against an accounting of the resources being marshaled to track them down, including sealed indictments and clandestine operations. U.S. officials said the database is designed to go beyond existing kill lists, mapping plans for the “disposition” of suspects beyond the reach of American drones. Although the matrix is a work in progress, the effort to create it reflects a reality setting in among the nation’s counterterrorism ranks: The United States’ conventional wars are winding down, but the government expects to continue adding names to kill or capture lists for years. Among senior Obama administration officials, there is a broad consensus that such operations are likely to be extended at least another decade. Given the way al-Qaeda continues to metastasize, some officials said no clear end is in sight. “We can’t possibly kill everyone who wants to harm us,” a senior administration official said. “It’s a necessary part of what we do. . . . We’re not going to wind up in 10 years in a world of everybody holding hands and saying, ‘We love America.'" I submit that this is the essence of horror. We have seen all this before. These opening paragraphs, and the article in its totality, describe what we might term the bureaucratization of terror, the phenomenon that Hannah Arendt wrote about extensively. Always remember that what these "U.S. officials" and "senior Obama administration officials" are discussing is the murder of human beings, including the murder of entirely innocent human beings. But they speak of a "disposition matrix," and the "accounting of the resources being marshaled," in the manner that might be used to discuss office supplies. "Oh, dear, we need more paperclips. Staplers, too." "Hmm. This group of men -- there seem to be about ten or twelve of them -- seems to be engaged in a 'suspicious pattern of activity.' We'd better dispose of them." The story refers to "a former U.S. counterterrorism official" who mentions "a disposition problem." He means the problem of what to do with all those the State places in the category of "everyone who wants to harm us," a category which the government steadily increases in number. As the stories about the Kill List make clear, the easiest method of "disposition" is murder. When they're dead, the State doesn't need to be concerned about "disposing" of them further. Just as we have seen before -- if anyone cares to remember -- the State which is determined to unleash horror on an ever-increasing scale seeks to transform the horror into an everyday, ordinary matter of following procedure, of following the rules, of routine: Targeted killing is now so routine that the Obama administration has spent much of the past year codifying and streamlining the processes that sustain it. Moreover, the Obama administration is determined to make the horror a matter of routine that can be easily followed by the U.S. government indefinitely: Less visible is the extent to which Obama has institutionalized the highly classified practice of targeted killing, transforming ad-hoc elements into a counterterrorism infrastructure capable of sustaining a seemingly permanent war. Spokesmen for the White House, the National Counterterrorism Center, the CIA and other agencies declined to comment on the matrix or other counterterrorism programs. Privately, officials acknowledge that the development of the matrix is part of a series of moves, in Washington and overseas, to embed counterterrorism tools into U.S. policy for the long haul. White House counterterrorism adviser John O. Brennan is seeking to codify the administration’s approach to generating capture/kill lists, part of a broader effort to guide future administrations through the counterterrorism processes that Obama has embraced. Toward the end of the article, we read: For an administration that is the first to embrace targeted killing on a wide scale, officials seem confident that they have devised an approach that is so bureaucratically, legally and morally sound that future administrations will follow suit. During Monday’s presidential debate, Republican nominee Mitt Romney made it clear that he would continue the drone campaign. “We can’t kill our way out of this,” he said, but added later that Obama was “right to up the usage” of drone strikes and that he would do the same. Regarding the bureaucratization of terror, Arendt is probably most famous for her analysis of this subject in connection with Nazi Germany. Just as many Germans later tried to claim that they, as "ordinary" Germans, knew nothing about the horrors practiced by the Nazi regime, many people have accepted the lie. Many people think that Germans would not have accepted, much less supported, the horrors if they had only known of them. This is simply not true. It was not true in Nazi Germany; it is not true in the United States today. Germans knew all about the horrors -- and they accepted them, and often enthusiastically supported them. The same is true in America now. Several months ago, in "Reflections on a Bestial Culture," I addressed this question in detail. In the last part of that series, I wrote: In the third part of this series, I offered my imagined version of a new history book which discussed events in Nazi Germany, focusing on the Nazis' consolidation and expansion of power in the pre-World War II period. My imagined book dealt with the extent to which knowledge of the Nazis' actions, including their systematic attacks on civil liberties in general -- and notably including details of Nazi brutality -- was available to the general public. The first sentence of my imagined history announced this general theme: "It perhaps astonishes us today, but newspapers often published accounts of these firebombings, raids and murders while the campaign of terror was still underway." The "gimmick" of my imaginary book was to replace Nazi justifications and explanations with those offered by U.S. officials, as detailed in the NYT article about Obama's "Kill List." I attempted to demonstrate the close parallels between Germans' acceptance of growing Nazi horrors and Americans' acceptance of our government's actions today. I then discussed a remarkable and profoundly disturbing book by Robert Gellately, Backing Hitler: Consent and Coercion in Nazi Germany. (As I explained, I hadn't been aware of Gellately's book when I wrote my imaginary history.) Part of the Amazon summary of the book reveals how Gellately unmasks this dangerous lie: Culling chilling evidence from primary news sources and citing dozens of case studies, Gellately shows how media reports and press stories were an essential dimension of Hitler's popular dictatorship. Indeed, a vast array of material on the concentration camps, the violent campaigns against social outsiders, and the Nazis' radical approaches to "law and order" was published in the media of the day, and was widely read by a highly literate population of Germans. Hitler, Gellately reveals, did not try to hide the existence of the Gestapo or of concentration camps. Nor did the Nazis try to cow the people into submission. Instead they set out to win converts by building on popular images, cherished ideals, and long-held phobias. And their efforts succeeded, Gellately concludes, for the Gestapo's monstrous success was due, in large part, to ordinary German citizens who singled out suspected "enemies" in their midst, reporting their suspicions and allegations freely and in a spirit of cooperation and patriotism. A brief excerpt from Gellately's Introduction makes the point still more forcefully: I began research for this book by addressing one of the major questions that has been raised since 1945, when we became aware of the concentration camps, namely, 'what did they know and when did they know it?' Did the Germans know about the secret police and the camps, the persecutions, the murders, and so on, and did they go along? Germans have defended themselves by saying they were unaware of, or poorly informed about, the camps, and were surprised by the revelations at the war's end. There was close to general agreement among historians for a long time, that the Nazis deliberately and systematically hid what they were doing, so it was possible that ordinary people really did not know. This book challenges these views. It shows that a vast array of material on the police and the camps and various discriminatory campaigns was published in the media of the day. In the 1930s the regime made sure the concentration camps were reported in the press, held them up for praise, and proudly let it be known that the men and women in the camps were confined without trial on the orders of the police. The regime boasted openly of its new system of 'police justice' by which the Secret Police (Gestapo) and the Criminal Police (Kripo) could decide for themselves what the law was, and send people to the camps at will. The Nazis celebrated the police in week-long annual festivals across the country, and proudly chalked up their many successes in the war on crime, immorality, and pornography. Far from clothing such practices in secrecy, the regime played them up in the press and lauded the modernity and superiority of the Nazi system over all others. My earlier article provides additional excerpts from Gellately. This is precisely the technique now utilized by the U.S. government. Numerous government "officials" are cited in both the NYT and Washington Post articles. The government proudly describes its murder program (along with indefinite detention and many other horrors). It "boast[s] openly" about how it "codifies" and "streamlines" its system of murder without end. The American government "plays up" its "practices," and "laud[s] the modernity and superiority" of its "system over all others." As the Washington Post article expresses it: " officials seem confident that they have devised an approach that is so bureaucratically, legally and morally sound that future administrations will follow suit." I repeat what I said earlier: the government wants Americans to know all about the horrors. It is increasingly eager to discuss its programs and to describe how it goes about murdering ever greater numbers of people. The government does this so that Americans become accustomed to the murders, precisely so that Americans regard the murders as a matter of routine, everyday business. I remind you of a crucially related point I made recently: In addition to pursuing its goal of global hegemony, the United States government uses foreign countries as a lethal laboratory in which to practice the techniques it intends to use domestically, at home within U.S. borders. Yet most Americans refuse to identify the meaning of the government's actions. If they are aware of these horrors at all, they tell themselves that the government would never practice these horrors here at home, and certainly not against people like them. These, too, are transparent and pathetic lies. I shall discuss these lies and related ones next time, when I will also turn to the nature and forms of resistance that are possible to us. For now, I emphasize the critical point: If the future should bring what are now unimaginable horrors, let no American ever be heard to say that he "never knew it would come to that." They know. They know about the horrors in detail; they are told about them repeatedly. They refuse to admit the meaning of what they know. If they did, they might feel they should resist the horrors -- and that is the one outcome they fear more than any other. Whatever may come, they do not want to have to take a stand. They do not want to have to choose. But life is choice. We are always making a choice, even when we make strenuous, tortuous efforts to avoid it. At certain moments in history, to avoid choosing is the worst and most contemptible choice of all. At present, it is also the choice of most Americans.
0.999889	List of top 7 famous quotes and sayings about magnifiy to read and share with friends on your Facebook, Twitter, blogs. Top 7 Magnifiy Quotes #1. I cry, because I know what I felt from him, even if I cannot and dare not allow it be named. - Author: Jasinda Wilder #2. Foster foresight to promote right - Author: Elda M. Lopez #3. I wanted to play a TV detective because it's a rite of passage; I wanted to experience every area of acting. I haven't done comedy or as much Shakespeare as I had intended. - Author: Olivia Williams #4. It's hard to stay flexible if you don't stretch. I think if you train the right way you'll be flexible. There are people that don't appreciate the value of stretching. I think it's very important. - Author: Darren Shahlavi #5. I go from a corruptible to an incorruptible Crown, where no disturbance can be, no disturbance in the world. Remember! - Author: Charles I Of England #6. Our love had been liking; our feelings had been ordinary, not Shakespearean. I still felt fondness for her - fondness, that pleasant, detached mix of admiration and sentiment, appreciation and nostalgia. I - Author: Rachel Cohn #7. Small changes can magnifiy. The possibility of interpersonal communication has increased substantially with contemporary technology. But as compared with the major changes, which were long ago, these are not huge. - Author: Noam Chomsky
0.993679	As fit citizens, neighbors and running mates, we are tyranny fighters, water-game professionals, WPIAL and PIAA bound, wiki instigators, sports fans, liberty lovers, world travelers, non-credentialed Olympic photographers, UU netizens, church goers, open source boosters, school advocates, South Siders, retired and not, swim coaches, water polo players, ex-publishers and polar bear swimmers, N@. Monday, August 24, 2020 Delegate, rec sports community push back on Carroll County decision to nix some youth sports Delegate, rec sports community push back on Carroll County decision to nix some youth sports By PAT STOETZER CARROLL COUNTY TIMES \| AUG 07, 2020 AT 6:16 PM Jay McClenahan crafted an open letter Friday to Carroll County’s commissioners and its director of recreation and parks to voice his disagreement with the decision announced Thursday prohibiting local rec councils from offering youth sports competition for tackle football, basketball, and wrestling because of concerns over COVID-19. McClenahan, a former commissioner with Freedom Optimist Soccer who has worked with local rec sports for most of the past decade, questioned what he sees as the haste in making such a decision. So did Del. Haven Shoemaker, a Republican representing Maryland’s fifth legislative district, who wrote a letter of his own Friday to the commissioners and Recreation and Parks Director Jeff Degitz. McClenahan and Shoemaker both said they have been asked repeatedly in the last day by concerned citizens about the county’s decision. Neither of them had answers. “I’m one of those people that really keeps quiet about my opinions about politics and COVID and all of the decisions that are made,” McClenahan said. “I’m a novice to all of that. I work in [information technology], I’m a soccer coach. What experience do I have? But ... you can’t take away one of the few remaining things that these kids need. It’s not just them playing a game. These are things that they’re going to take with them forever.” McClenahan and Shoemaker each said it should be up to the parents of the athletes in question to make decisions on whether they should play during the coronavirus pandemic, particularly at the rec level. Shoemaker noted in his letter that the number of people who contacted him unhappy about the county’s decision was higher than the number of individuals under age 20 who have been hospitalized because of the novel coronavirus (three, according to county data). “Children are already going to have a difficult time acclimating to their new educational environment following the unfortunate decision of the Board of Education regarding virtual ‘learning,‘ but to strip them of their sports seems like piling on,” Shoemaker wrote. “This is especially egregious given that many have already begun preseasons and practices. ... “Since when did government become responsible for ensuring the safety and welfare of children?” Westminster council cancels rest of 2020 events, will explore socially distanced alternatives » County commissioners President Stephen Wantz, R-District 1, said during Thursday’s Board of Commissioners meeting he asked for the health department, and the rec and parks department, to come back next week with whatever new information they might have. “After hearing the briefing [Thursday], I knew that there would be challenges. ... My colleagues agreed to that,” Wantz said. “They made these decisions based on the guidance that they had. And we’ll see then. That’s what we’re going to do.” Wantz said he didn’t understand why Shoemaker would question their moves to protect Carroll countians. “Public safety and the safety of our citizens is No. 1, and most every elected official you talk to will say that that is the No. 1 priority,” he said. “So I just have a complete lack of understanding of a statement like that, regardless of the age of our citizens.” Degitz said at the meeting that “it’s not a perfect system,” and things could be adjusted in the future. Commissioner Dennis Frazier, R-District 3, said it was a tough decision to make, and he understands the move affects a lot of people. Frazier said he didn’t feel right about kids being allowed to attend sports practices but not in-person learning at schools. “In the end, I think we have to err on the side of safety. I do,” Frazier said. “I know it’s different, and it’s outside and therefore it’s better that way. But I’m still uneasy about it. ... No matter what decision you make, someone’s going to second-guess you.” Degitz said during Thursday’s meeting that competing in these sports has been identified as high risk for spreading the novel coronavirus by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Later, Degitz added the decision does not affect private travel teams because the rec department doesn’t have authority over them. A memorable graduation ceremony for Springdale Prep’s Class of 2020: ‘We’re making the best of it’ » Carroll’s rec sports community didn’t take long to respond. Hampstead Ravens Youth Football and Cheerleading posted a message Friday afternoon on its Facebook page that started with the sentence, “Football families deserve better” and asked for supporters of the organization to contact county officials regarding the ruling. County officials talked Thursday about giving kids a safe sports environment versus getting out of the pandemic as quickly as possible. “One season for a particular sport may ultimately look rather small in comparison to what we’re going through as a county and a country,” Degitz said. McClenahan said he received more than 100 inquiries on the matter between Thursday evening, when the announcement became public, and Friday afternoon. Longtime rec sports contributor Jerry Georgiana, a Carroll County Sports Hall of Famer, said he has also been flagged by Westminster Girls Basketball youth program families wondering about their league’s fate. Georgiana, who is getting set for his 30th year leading the organization, said he is going to submit a plan to delay the season and start later than usual, maybe even by the spring, if only to give the WGB some sort of season. Georgiana said he’s not sure rec sports athletes missing one season is as minor as Degitz described. “I think that it’s going to go against their health,” Georgiana said. “They’re not getting any exercise. It seems to me, the more you exercise the safer you are because you’re healthier. ... “So where are we going with this? Because these kids, since March 13th, have been doing nothing.” Shoemaker’s letter seemed to agree with that sentiment. “We cannot take the world away from these kids and expect them to function in a healthy manner. They will suffer and it will be at the hands of those who made the decision to continue taking away their normalcy,” Shoemaker wrote, closing his letter by asking that the decision be reconsidered. Posted by Mark Rauterkus at 1:45 PM No comments: Email ThisBlogThis!Share to TwitterShare to FacebookShare to Pinterest Fwd: More austerity and corporate dominance in our future ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: John Hemington There are an awful lot of folks out there who are completely convinced that if Joe Biden wins the election and ousts Trump in November that everything will suddenly be wonderful and the future bright for all. At best, in my opinion, this is Pollyannaish thinking and, at worst, completely delusional bandwagon dreaming. Some of you have also wondered why it is that I have not been at all enthusiastic about the Biden/Harris ticket to the point of almost active despair at the prospect. All of my attempts at explanations seem to have fallen flat in the face of widespread Trump hatred, but I believe that the two pieces by David Sirota in the attached article from Jacobin explain my antipathy as well as anything I might have said. The problems we face in this nation and the world such as global climate catastrophe, healthcare crisis combined with the Covid-19 pandemic, intolerable economic maldistributions, etc., etc. cannot be addressed by more of the same corporate and financial control and fiscal austerity now once again being promised by the Democratic Party establishment represented by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Donald Trump has been a disaster. But the Trump disaster was brought on by the failure of both the Democratic and Republican Party establishments to provide any meaningful programs and policies beneficial to the American mainstream since the early 1980s, during which time wages fell consistently for a majority of Americans and millions of good jobs were shipped over seas due to neoliberal trade policies championed by both political parties. Few today choose to recall that Trump campaigned as a populist promising to bring back jobs, eliminate or renegotiate trade agreements (which he did), get us out of absurd endless wars in the Middle East (which he did not), reinvigorate manufacturing in this country (which he did not). He was hated and despised by main stream Republicans who, however, jumped on his bandwagon once it became clear that he couldn't be stopped. Once elected, however, most of what he campaigned on was blocked by bipartisan efforts in congress, at least to the extent that Trump was ever serious about his promises, which is questionable at best. The bottom line is that the American people for the most part want change while the political parties in control of the system do not and will do whatever is necessary – including lose elections – to avoid having any meaningful change take place. John Posted by Mark Rauterkus at 1:42 PM No comments: Email ThisBlogThis!Share to TwitterShare to FacebookShare to Pinterest Wednesday, August 05, 2020 Fwd: August Activities ----- Forwarded message --- Hi there! We know there is a lot of uncertainty and stress during these times, so we've launched a Family Hotline with ARYSE, Lawrenceville United, Latino Community Center, Boys & Girls Club, and Heinz Fellows to answer questions and offer support to families as they navigate the academic and personal needs of those in their household. The hotline will be live until September 30th. For support in Spanish please call (412)335-7446, and for support in English and other languages please call (412)256-8536. In addition to the hotline, below are a couple of other opportunities we have to offer. The TeenBloc Youth Organizing Academy is going virtual this year! As always, it is open to rising 8th-12th graders. It will run all next week (August 10th-14th) and each day there will be 3 different virtual sessions that happen between the hours of 11am-2:40pm. Local and national teachers, artists, and activists (including Write Pittsburgh, Cultivating Resilient Youth, BOOM Concepts, Steel Smiling, The Good Peoples Group, and more) will be guest facilitators for the sessions. For more information or to sign your student up, contact Christa at [email protected] before this Friday (8/7). On Thursday, August 20th at 6:00pm Nichole and I will be hosting a google hangout session to cover some tips for entering the new school year. To join that conversation that day, click on the link below or call in from your phone using the number below. Meeting ID meet.google.com/dvz-wedu-qby Phone Numbers (‪US‬)‪+1 513-855-2433‬ PIN: ‪166 202 707#‬ If you can, please take a few minutes to read this powerful blog post, "Looking from the inside out: An educator's insight into the inequities of remote learning", from a local eduator and an A+ Schools board member. To continue receiving Parent Nation emails click here. As we build our Parent Nation email list out I'll be sending this message to our entire list at least a few more times. If you do not opt in you will no longer receive Parent Nation emails after a few months. If you do not wish to receive any emails from A+ Schools please click the unsubscribe link at the bottom of this email.
0.999999	Orthomnium nudum is the name of a species, part of the genus Orthomnium. This species has been described by E.B.Bartram under the rules of the International Code of Nomenclature for algae, fungi, and plants (ICN / commonly called the botany code). Botany
0.999449	I will be participating in the 2020 ASPCA Virtual 5K! I am excited to be participating and honored to be raising awareness and critical funding to support the ASPCA and our nation’s vulnerable animals. Your donation will help the ASPCA continue to provide rescue, relief, care and protection for countless animals nationwide. The ASPCA is very important to me and I appreciate your help as we fight to give abused, neglected and homeless animals a second chance at life. Please donate today and help me make a positive impact in the lives of animals! Thank you! Donate now Want to join the 2020 ASPCA Virtual 5K? Register today to receive your own finisher’s medal, race bib and fundraising page. Get creative and stay active while making a difference for animals. Learn More » About the ASPCA: Fighting for animals is a 24/7 job, but your commitment makes it possible for us to continue to rescue, protect and care for those who may be homeless, neglected or are victims of cruelty. Year-round, we are rescuing animals from neglect and suffering, responding to natural disasters and emergencies such as COVID-19, and ensuring that more animals find loving homes nationwide. With your support, we are able to continue this work and be there for those who need us most—whenever they may need us. Please help us save even more animals in need by making a gift through this Team ASPCA campaign today.
0.942883	At Shea, we pride ourselves on staying on top of what’s happening in design news. It helps us keep tabs on what’s fresh, inspiring, and happening in the world—and we make a few headlines of our own, too. Here are some recent articles delving into design, experience, and what’s buzzing in our community: “Shea Principal Tanya Spaulding Featured on Transforming Cities Podcast” – Shea: Shea Principal Tanya Spaulding sits down with Authentic Form & Function to discuss her career and history at Shea, as well as how Shea integrates every facet of design into our work. “Dining in the Streets” – Restaurant Development + Design: A look at different solutions for outdoor dining around the country, from city streets to suburban parking lots, as restaurants adapt to accommodate Coronavirus restrictions. Some solutions include parking spaces turned into dining areas like boat slips, carefully decorated canopies, closed streets, plant and greenery dividers, and tents. The piece also notes additional logistics that must be taken into account: mosquito netting, fans, creating energy without density, additional service stations, restroom access, signage, and more. “5 Ways the Workplace Must Adapt to the Coronavirus Era” – Architectural Digest: Architectural Digest examines how offices will change for good after the pandemic, focusing on office culture, design, dining, restrooms, and air quality. The focus will be on employees—what they need and what they want, building office culture even if people have to be apart. Within the office, spaces will be reconfigured if not redesigned (particularly community and dining spaces, as well as incorporating no-touch and self-cleaning restrooms), and technology will take center stage. Finally, this piece looks at air-quality ventilation, with the three pillars of containing virus spread in the air being mask-wearing, pumping fresh air into buildings, and air-cleaning via high-efficiency filters. “The Restaurant of the Future 2.0” – FSR: A foodservice and management consulting firm breaks down how the future restaurant will look, feel, and operate, updating their original predictions as we continue to learn more about and envision the world post-COVID. This piece covers everything from menu items (easily executable items that travel well) to flexibility in every operational aspect. It also goes into new options for contactless operations and other technology, innovative safety and sanitation choices, new ways to drive revenue, and more. “With Robot Deliveries and Outdoor Tents, Campus Dining Will Be Very Different” – New York Times: The New York Times looks at how campus dining will look in the fall, with pop-up restaurants and takeout stations supplementing regular operations to help serve more students. Furthermore, self-serve stations will disappear along with condiment stations, and schools are planning for pivots as the situation continues to progress. Technology is another factor; schools are adding robots for food delivery and in the kitchen. They’re looking to still give a dining experience to students, even without the traditional dining hall, and are bolstering safety standards in the back-of-house with PPE and new rules. “Shea-Designed Central NE to Open in Northeast Minneapolis” – Shea: Central NE is open in Northeast Minneapolis, and the media is buzzing. Check here for all the news. “How Food Halls Are Evolving in the Wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic” – Restaurant Hospitality: Food halls have been on the rise over the past few years, but are as far from post-COVID-friendly as it gets, with communal seating, crowded vendor spaces, and lines snaking through. This piece looks at how they can adapt to stay relevant and even thrive in the next stage. The real trick is to replicate the social experience while staying safe, and it’s forcing operators to get creative and really embrace that aspect in new ways. These tactics include using any outdoor space for dining, allowing for contactless pickup and grocery purchases from various vendors, hosting outdoor events, carefully controlled occupancies, tableside service, and more. And some food halls are taking advantage of the closure to reconcept and rotate tenants. “Smaller Footprints, More Drive Thru: Restaurant Design in a COVID World” – QSR: This piece looks at how design that prioritizes off-site dining has become a necessity since the onset of COVID, whether it’s via pickup areas for takeout or delivery people or improved drive-thru lanes. This will be a long-term effect on design as people have become more accustomed to takeout than ever, and many continue to be trepidatious about eating in restaurants. Many eateries will pivot to a smaller restaurant footprint, instead using additional land space to improve off-premises operations, while existing restaurants may be looking into how to most effectively use parking lots and any additional spaces. Along with this comes opportunities for signage and branding to connect new guest needs with the brand and product. “Will the Restaurant-Retail Trend Return After COVID?” – FSR: Before the onset of the virus, retail stores were incorporating foodservice in new ways (including Restoration Hardware, Crate & Barrel, and more). This piece looks at the intersection of experiential shopping and dining—how it emphasized convenience as well as creating an overall vibe in a shopping experience—as well as its potential for the future. It could be a revenue driver to help bolster both restaurants and retail, as long as it’s done properly and safely, and could even be done via takeout based on restaurant best practices. “Salute Dental Named a Cool Office by the Business Journal” – Shea: The Minneapolis-St. Paul Business Journal’s featured Salute Dental, a ground-up Shea-designed building, as a Cool Office.
0.940373	This article is about a subject that lacks an official name and is known only by its nickname, call sign, or alias. Amanaman Biographical information Homeworld Maridun Physical description Species Amanin Gender Male Height 1.88 meters[1] Mass 85 kilograms[1] Eye color Red Skin color Yellow and green Chronological and political information Affiliation(s) Jabba Desilijic Tiure's criminal empire [Source] Amanaman was the nickname given to a specific male Amani present at Jabba the Hutt's palace; his real name was unknown on Tatooine. Amanaman was a successful bounty hunter. Contents 1 Biography 2 Behind the scenes 3 Appearances 3.1 Non-canon appearances 4 Sources 5 Notes and references 6 External links Biography[] Amanaman Amanaman resembled a giant, yellow, shriveled planarian. He had long gangly arms and a green back with a striped pattern. Amanin were also known by the colloquial name "head hunters" due to their tendency to collect their victims' heads as souvenirs, and Amanaman was no exception; for a time (around 4 ABY), he wielded a staff from which three prized heads grotesquely hung. He also kept a dried, decapitated corpse at his side. All of these were from unidentified victims. He eventually collected 35 heads, displaying them on posts around the palace complex. Behind the scenes[] Amanaman appeared in Return of the Jedi and was played by puppeteer Ailsa Berk.[2] Since Amanaman does not speak, Ailsa is officially credited as a "mime artist." Amanaman is visible during several scenes in Jabba's Palace. He is first seen when Jabba reveals Han Solo frozen in carbonite. He can also be seen when the Max Rebo Band performs—although he is reclining so he is hard to spot—and he is seen again when Leia and Han are discovered. The last time he can be seen is when Luke and Han are sentenced to death. Appearances[] A Hunter's Fate: Greedo's Tale webstrip Star Wars: Episode VI Return of the Jedi (First appearance) "Lapti Nek": The Music Video from Jabba's Palace Non-canon appearances[] "The Emperor's Court"—Star Wars Tales 14 Sources[] Explore all of Wookieepedia's images for this article subject. Star Wars: The Power of the Force (1985) (Pack: Amanaman) (backup link) (First identified as Amanaman)
0.999974	There are many different kinds of cats. For example, there are lions, Cheetahs, Snow Leopards, Chinese mountain cats, Jungle cats, Serval and much more. Cats can be found in many different places, some of the places are mainly located in Asia, Europe, Africa and many more. Some can be found in cold places like the rugged mountains of Central Asia. Some, but very few live in sandy places like the Southern African Desert (Namib Desert) which is located near the Kunene River. Even though lions like hot climates (like in deserts) it is very hard for them to survive because there is not that much food around for them to hunt. What climate wild cats live in. There are lots of different climates that wild cats live in. For example, some lions live in Angola which is in Africa, the weather there is warm (it is around 29 degrees Celsius). Some cats live in cold places like a snow leopard witch lives in central Asia, where the weather is -2 degrees. Some also live In Northeastern China where it is warm but in winter it gets cold. In Peru, there is a rainforest and there it is about 23 degrees Celsius and that is a good climate for a lot of cats to live in. Types of environment cats live in Cats are mostly found in tropical rainforests but some can be found in different places. Some but very little live in the desert but not very many live there because it is very hard to find any food to hunt, it is very hard for them to find even a drop on water out there. Where snow leopards live there is mainly just rocks because they live in the mountains, there is again not that much food so they have to use it very wisely. Snow leopards stay apart from each other because sometimes they get into fights and these fights are usually about food. A lot of tigers and other wild cats can be found in forests like the Amazon River, the rainforest in Peru, where it is much easier for them to find food, fresh water and other food resources (hunting). In these forests there are a lot of wild cats, meaning that they can mate much more easily. Forests are the perfect place for some of these wild cats. Sometimes wild cats escape from their habitat, which is why you never know when you could spot a wildcat. Cats and diversity Wild cats are important for diversity because they help to balance out the food chain. Also since wild cats are found all over the world, this helps to stop diseases from spreading to all wild cats. This means that if all the wild cats are sick in Africa then at least the wild cats in Asia will not be sick.This is how diversity is important in wild cats.
0.999607	I decided I wanted to learn a new skill and choosing between two of the most popular Online learning platforms out there, Skillshare and MasterClass wasn’t easy. I didn’t really know what their differences were and which one would offer me the right online course. I had a lot of unanswered questions like; What are their prices? Does either offer a free trial?, Is there a refund policy?, Who is my instructor? To answer all these questions and more, I’ve created an in-depth Skillshare vs MasterClass comparison. Let’s dive right in! Table of Content Skillshare vs MasterClass Summary Round 0: Which One Is More Popular? Round 1: Ease-of-Use & Interface Round 2: Skillshare Vs MasterClass Classes Round 3: Free Classes at Skillshare & MasterClass Round 4: Available Languages At Skillshare & MasterClass Round 5: Skillshare Vs MasterClass Certificates Round 6: Skillshare Vs MasterClass Teachers & Community Round 7: Is Skillshare or MasterClasses Support Better Round 8: Which One Is Better for Businesses Round 9: Skillshare Vs MasterClass Pricing & Refunds Bonus Round: Skillshare & MasterClass Alternatives Final thoughts: Skillshare vs MasterClass Skillshare vs MasterClass Summary Skillshare premium works on a subscription basis that is either billed annually at $180 (working out at $15 a month) or monthly at $32. The annual fee will need to be paid upfront. As well as individual memberships, Skillshare offers 3 different plans for teams, the Starter package is $159 per user, per year. Similarly, Masterclass offers subscription plans on its annual memberships which will need to be paid upfront. You can choose between the Standard, Plus and the Premium. The Standard costs $180 (working out at $15 a month) the Plus $240 (working out at $20 a month) and finally the Premium $276 (working out at $23 a month). MasterClass offers annual memberships for teams and business, and the price will vary depending on the size of your team. To conclude, Skillshare focuses on creative topics and MasterClass has 100+ VIP instructors teaching its classes. Let’s dive in, so by the end of this comparison, you’ll know whether Skillshare or MasterClass is the right platform for you. Round 0: Which One Is More Popular? As you see below in this Google Trends screenshot, when it comes to popularity, there’s one clear winner: MasterClass. Skillshare and MasterClass popularity on Google Trends MasterClass is a stand-out online learning platform, due to the fact it has famous faces like Yotam Ottolenghi and Alicia Keys teaching its classes. It was founded in San Francisco in 2014 and currently has 100+ classes across 11 categories. Its classes are highly engaging and really well produced that leave you with a cinematic aura. The Skillshare platform is a popular online learning platform for creatives and entrepreneurs. It is currently offering 35,000+ classes on topics like illustration, design, photography, video, freelancing and more. Its big pool of classes provide learners with an endless list of classes to enjoy – you definitely won’t get bored. Even though google trends does give us an indication on which is the most popular online learning platform. It doesn’t answer which one is better for you the learner: Skillshare or MasterClass? Round 1: Ease-of-Use & Interface If you are anything like me, then having an online platform that is easy to move around and has an intuitive layout makes the whole learning experience much more enjoyable. So let’s find out which platform has the easiest system? Registration The registration process for Skillshare is really simple. You can create your account by simply adding an email account and a password. On top of that, you are also allowed to create an account using your Google, Apple or Facebook account. Once you are signed up you’ll need to add your credit/debit card, Sepa or Paypal account, this will activate the start of your free Skillshare Premium trial. You won’t be charged anything until the free trial ends. Skillshare Membership Plans MasterClass has a similar registration process. To create your account, you will simply add your email address and click on ‘Get Started’. You will then be asked to choose your annual membership: Standard, Plus or Premium (see image below). Once you have selected your preferred annual membership, you will be taken through to add your card details. Finally, you will click on PLACE SECURE ORDER and your membership will begin immediately. MasterClass Annual Membership Plans Backend & Design Once you are registered with Skillshare, you can begin enjoying its free trial and the 35,000 classes it has to offer. Once you have chosen a category, you can begin browsing its classes. It offers a couple of helpful filters where you can pick the class length and sort the classes by most Popular and recently added (see image below). Skillshare filters Skillshare and MasterClass have a very similar and intuitive interface for its video lessons. The layout of the video lessons from MasterClass are intuitively listed down the right side on the screen, making it easy to find what you want to watch. MasterClass Video Lessons To the right of that you can find My Notes, which helps to remind you of what you have learnt during the class and is like a modern-day notebook. MasterClass adding notes to the lessons Overall, both Skillshare and MasterClass have a really intuitive and user-friendly platform, not only making it easy to find what you are looking for but also an enjoyable learning experience. The Skillshare and MasterClass app is available with all paid subscriptions, so you can learn on the go and at a time that suits you. Winner: This is a tough one, as both Skillshare and MasterClass offer a really user-friendly and intuitive design. So I will have to kick things of with giving a point each 1-1 Round 2: Skillshare Vs MasterClass Classes When deciding on the right platform, it’s important that you ask yourself some important questions like: What class topics am I looking for? Is it important who the instructor of the class is? Can I read class reviews? Class Information With a platform like Skillshare that is offering such a wide variety of creative classes (35,000+) it’s hard to know where to begin. Skillshare does try to help you by giving you suggestions of classes from Featured Classes, Popular Classes and Trending Classes to give you an idea of what other learners are enjoying. Skillshare Featured and Popular Classes My suggestion is to choose a Skillshare class that peaks your interest and read the Reviews from past learners, as this will give you a real insight into their experience and of what to expect from it (see image below). You can also read in the About tab a detailed teacher profile, so you have an insight into the instructor of the class and links to other classes he/she teaches. Skillshare Reviews MasterClass offers a smaller number of categories (11 in total) but that definitely doesn’t mean it’s lacking in good quality content. You can begin by selecting the categories which most interest you, and then MasterClass will show all the classes within this category. MasterClass Categories Sadly, MasterClass doesn’t have any specific reviews for each class from past learners, which feels a shame and something that is lacking on the platform in general. I know as a user myself, I value reading reviews and opinions (even if some aren’t accurate). Winner: So for this round, the point will have to go to Skillshare due to the fact it offers more than just well produced video lessons. Skillshare has taken the lead, 2-1. Popular Skillshare & MasterClass Classes I wanted to highlight the most popular online classes published by Skillshare and MasterClass to give you an idea of what other learners have most enjoyed: Skillshare Classes: Productivity Masterclass – Principles and Tools to Boost Your Productivity – Ali Abdaal teaches the principles and theories of productivity to help us live a happier and more productive life. This class is 1 hour 55 minutes and made up of 15 video lessons, and throughout the class are reflective prompts and questions to answer. I took this class myself and enjoyed it, you can read about my experience here. Fundamentals of DSLR Photography – Taught by Justin Bridges, Fashion and Portrait Photographer. This class is beginner-friendly, an introductory photography class where you’ll learn how to manually balance shutter speed, aperture, and ISO to achieve perfect exposure. You’ll also learn Justin’s go-to camera settings, must-have gear and recommendations on a budget. iPhone Photography: How to Take Pro Photos On Your iPhone – Taught by Dale McManus, a Photographer and Videographer. This class is beginner-friendly and will teach you everything you need to be a professional digital photographer. In this course, you’ll learn plenty of tips and tricks that you can use during every day shooting to make your photos stand out from the rest. Some of what you’ll learn is how to take stunning photos by utilizing shot composition, how to create depth in your photography, how to professionally edit photos in Lightroom and much more. Graphic Design Basics: Core Principles for Visual Design – Taught by Ellen Lupton and Jennifer Cole Phillips, co-directors of the Graphic Design MFA program at MICA. This class is beginner-friendly and will give you a solid foundation and core principles of graphic design. You’ll learn and define 5 basic design principles, critique your work for effectiveness and balance, and apply each core concept in future projects. Video Editing with Adobe Premiere Pro for Beginners – Taught by Jordy Vandeput, a Filmmaker and Youtuber. This class is beginner-friendly, where you will learn how to take your creative ideas into amazing videos with Adobe Premiere Pro. You will learn a solid basis of Premiere Pro which allows you to perform basic edits, create custom graphics and texts, mix audio from speech, music, sound effects and much more. > Read my detailed Skillshare Review to find out more MasterClass Classes: Yotam Ottolenghi Teaches Modern Middle Eastern Cooking – Yotam Ottolenghi teaches you simple steps for making and mixing Middle Eastern-inspired recipes like platters, mezze and homemade condiments. This class is 5 hours 41 minutes and is made up of 26 video lessons. I took this class myself and thoroughly enjoyed it, you can read about my experience here. Alicia Keys Teaches Songwriting and Producing – Alicia Keys is one of the world’s most beloved singer/songwriter, winning 15 Grammy Awards and more than 40 million albums sold. She invites you to her studio to share her process for creating music built from authentic emotion. This class is 3 hours 22 minutes long and consists of 19 video lessons. Stephen Curry Teaches Shooting, Ball-Handling, and Scoring – Stephen Curry teaches the shooting, ball-handling, and scoring techniques that have made him a two-time MVP. He is teaching everything he’s learned, from perfect shooting mechanics to on-court concepts and basketball drills. This class is 3 hours 41 minutes in total and made up of 17 video lessons. Matthew Walker Teaches the Science of Better Sleep – Matthew Walker is a professor of neuroscience and psychology at UC Berkeley and the director of the Center for Human Sleep Science. Matthew illuminates the science behind sleep and teaches you how to increase the quality and quantity of your sleep. This class is 3 hours 12 minutes in total and made up of 15 video lessons. RuPaul Teaches U.S. Self-Expression and Authenticity – RuPaul has transformed drag subculture into a mainstream phenomenon. Now the Emmy-winning host and performer is sharing an intimate look at his personal journey to self-realization. This class is 2 hours 1 minute long and made up of 16 video lessons. > Read my detailed MasterClass Review to find out more Round 3: Free Classes at Skillshare & MasterClass Something that I get asked a lot is where can I find free courses? This is where I have to be honest, as free doesn’t always mean quality. So, my advice is if you are serious about learning something of value, it makes sense to pay for it. A free class isn’t for everyone. Skillshare recently stopped offering free classes, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t another way to check out classes for free. When you sign up for Skillshare premium, you will get access to a 1-month free trial – which I have to say is pretty generous for as far as free trials go. The free trial will give you full access to the platform and its 35,000+. Skillshare One Month Free Trial MasterClass on the other hand doesn’t offer any free MasterClass course or free trials. The only way you could get around trying out the MasterClass platform is by signing up and paying for an annual membership. If you aren’t satisfied, you will be entitled to receiving a full refund within 30 days of purchasing. Winner: So for that reason, that MasterClass doesn’t offer any free classes, the point will have to go to Skillshare. Skillshare is still out in front, 3-1. Round 4: Available Languages At Skillshare & MasterClass Alright, I promise this will be a short round. Skillshare encourages teaching in any language, as its classes can be taught by anyone. But the truth is most of the Skillshare community is English speaking, and naturally, you will get more engagement if your classes are in English. Available subtitles with Skillshare Skillshare does offer subtitles in the following languages Dutch, English, Spanish, French and Portuguese for all its classes. For anyone that English is their second language it can be helpful, but I do want to add here it is important you have a good level of English to really get the most out of the Skillshare platform. Like Skillshare, the MasterClass audience is primarily English. It does offer a small handful of classes with Spanish and German subtitles, but when I say small handful I mean less than 10 classes. Winner: This is a tricky one as neither platform does a particularly good job at offering its classes in other languages, but due to the fact Skillshare has subtitles in a variety of languages the point will go to them. So, there we have it, Skillshare is storming ahead with 4-1. Round 5: Skillshare Vs MasterClass Certificates Certificates can be a great way to show future employers of your qualifications. Plus, they can be the motivator to commit and successfully complete the course. It’s important to remember though that not all certificates are verified, as that would mean they need to be issued by a credible institution. Sadly, neither Skillshare or MasterClass offer any sort of certificate when you successfully complete the class. Winner: Since Skillshare and MasterClass don’t issue certificates, no one will get a point for this round. Check out Coursera or Udacity for completion certificates. Round 6: Skillshare Vs MasterClass Teachers & Community For many of us, the person teaching the course or class is an important factor for whether we go ahead with it or not. Before making that decision you may have some questions you want answering like: Does the teacher have qualifications to teach this subject? How many years of experience do they have? Will the instructor be giving me personal feedback? Skillshare is a platform that allows anyone to teach its classes. So to become a Skillshare teacher, you just need a passion for a creative topic and looking to share that with a creative community. Now this does come with its downside, the fact that anyone can teach a course, meaning: Does my instructor at Skillshare have qualifications? Or How much experience do they really have? Skillshare Original As well as that, Skillshare does produce ‘Skillshare Original’ a collection of classes that are built in partnership with some well-known professionals and entrepreneurs. These classes are well produced and well received by the Skillshare community. Skillshare does encourage its learners to share their thoughts and work with the community. And it does make a greater effort than other online learning platforms to emphasize the importance of community through learning. What makes MasterClass a stand-out platform are the famous faces teaching its classes. Its lineup of 100+ celebrities and VIPs is really impressive, you have the likes of Alicia Keys teaching you Songwriting and Producing or Gordon Ramsay on how to cook. If you like the idea of learning from an icon, then MasterClass has you covered. MasterClass Teachers In all honesty MasterClass doesn’t have the most active community, it is used more for a place to ask and get answers to questions. If a community isn’t that important to you, then MasterClass would be a good fit. Winner: Even though Skillshare has a more engaged community, the fact that MasterClass has top artists, leaders and icons teaching its classes the point has to go to them. The score now stands at 4-2 to Skillshare Round 7: Is Skillshare or MasterClasses Support Better Let’s be honest, something we all dislike is slow support and bad customer service, right? Skillshare offers a standard Help Center page where you can find articles on most areas that you would need answers for. It is broken down into Students, Teachers and Skillshare for Teams, so you can easily navigate towards what you are looking for. You have the option to submit a ticket if you need further help. Skillshare Help Center MasterClass offers a more detailed Support page, plus it offers a chatbot which I know at times can be annoying, but this one is more helpful than others I have used in the past. MasterClass Support After purchasing a MasterClass subscription myself I requested a refund (within 30 days of purchasing it) as I wanted to see how its customer service was. I must say, I was super impressed with how responsive and hassle-free it was. I submitted a request here and the refund was back in my account in 5 days. Winner: Due to the fact MasterClass has a more detailed support page and the fact its customer service is really responsive and hassle-free, the point will have to go to them. Things are getting exciting now, the score is now 4-3 with Skillshare still holding the lead. Round 8: Which One Is Better for Businesses Online learning isn’t just for individual learners, it is for teams and businesses who are wanting to upskill and motivate their team and employees. Skillshare and MasterClass are no different and both offer plans for teams and businesses. Skillshare offers 3 team plans designed for different sized teams and businesses. The Starter is best for teams of 2-20, costing $159 per user, per year. The Enterprise and Revive plans are ideal for bigger teams and come with a custom price. Skillshare Team Plans Like Skillshare, MasterClass offers plans for Businesses, its pricing plans aren’t as transparent and you will need to contact sales to choose the plan for your business. Depending on the size of your organization discounts between 5-35% are made when you purchase more than 5+ annual memberships Winner: As Skillshare offers more plans to suit the size of your team or business, plus what is included within the package, this point has to go to them. Skillshare is still out in front with the score at 5-3. Round 9: Skillshare Vs MasterClass Pricing & Refunds Now we have come to the final category and the most important, pricing. I am sure you, what you really want to know is: What’s actually included? and What’s the refund policy? Both Skillshare and MasterClass work with a subscription model, let me explain a little more in the table below; Skillshare MasterClass Classes ~35,000 ~130 Free Trials 1 month No free trials Subscription Plans Annual: $180 billed annually Monthly: $32 billed monthly Standard: $180 billed annually Plus: $240 billed annually Premium: $276 billed annually Refunds Within 7 days of purchasing Within 30 days of purchasing Devices Desktop, iOS & Android Desktop, iOS & Android More information Visit Skillshare.com Visit MasterClass.com Skillshare does offer the option of an annual or a monthly subscription plan, which is more appealing, especially of you aren’t ready to commit. Plus, the 1-month free trial gives you the chance to get to know the platform before you fully commit to it. Even though MasterClass does have 3 subscription plans, they do all require you to commit for a full year. And especially without the option of a free trial or at least some free classes, it means a new learner is reluctant to commit. I get it and I do think MasterClass can do better on this one. Winner: I think that’s clear that Skillshare has to take this one. So, that leaves us with Skillshare being crowned the winner of this comparison, with 6-3 points. Well done Skillshare! Bonus Round: Skillshare & MasterClass Alternatives You may have got to the end of this comparison, so thank you for hanging around as it turned into a bit of a long one in the end. You may now have realised that actually neither Skillshare or MasterClass is right for you. Either platform could be lacking in some areas like a verified certificate, selection of classes or career advice to help you apply for your next job role. Let me quickly mention a few alternatives that you might consider. Coursera If earning an accredited certificate is something you are looking for, then Coursera partners with 200+ Universities and Companies to produce high-quality courses, specializations, degrees and more. It collaborates with Universities like Stanford, Duke and Penn and Companies like Google and IBM. Coursera an alternative to Skillshare and MasterClass You can join Coursera for free, and it offers a variety of courses from individual courses, Guided Projects, Specializations, Professional Certificate, MasterTrack Certificate and Degrees. It also offers Coursera Plus a yearly or monthly subscription plan giving you access to 3,000+ courses. Read Coursera Review Visit Coursera.com Udacity Udacity is a platform that offers Nanodegrees (a type of learning program) on topics within digital skills. It works closely with top industry partners (like Google, Mercedes and Nvidia) to produce its content. Its content is designed to leave learners with job ready digital skills. Udacity an alternative to Skillshare or MasterClass For all students who enroll in any Udacity Nanodegree Program will have access to Udacity’s Career Services which include Personalized Review, Tips to Grow your network, resume optimization tips and more. It is important to keep in mind that learning with Udacity is both a time and financial commitment. Its Nanodegrees start at $399 and go up to $2000 depending on how fast you work. Read Udacity Review Visit Udacity.com edX edX offers 3,000+ Courses, Programs and Degrees from leading universities like Harvard, MIT and Berkeley. You’ll be able to earn verified certificates when you choose the paid verified track. edX an alternative to Skillshare or MasterClass As well as its paid verified track you can choose the audit track which means you can take the course for free, but its features are limited and of course you won’t receive a verified certificate at the end. Read edX Review Visit edx.com Udemy Udemy is one of the largest online learning platforms offering over 183,000+ courses on pretty much any subject you could imagine. It offers some free courses and most of its courses are affordable. Udemy an alternative to Skillshare or MasterClass You will receive a certificate when you successfully complete a paid course, and you are entitled to a 30-day refund policy if you aren’t happy with the course. As well as individual courses, Udemy for business is for employees who want to help empower and develop the skills of its team, a few different plans are available. Read Udemy Review Visit Udemy.com Final thoughts: Skillshare vs MasterClass Alright, after this long and detailed comparison, I am sure you’ll be able to pick what platform is best for you. To sum up Skillshare and MasterClass, I have put some bullet points together as to why each platform may be right for you. Go with Skillshare if you: Are looking for a free trial Don’t mind paying a subscription Value a big pool of creative classes > Try Skillshare for free > Read the detailed Skillshare Review here Choose MasterClass if you: Want well produced and engaging content Value VIP and celebrity instructors. Expect a generous refund policy > Try MasterClass for free > Read the detailed MasterClass Review here There’s a lot to consider when choosing an online learning community, so if you still have some questions, please leave a comment below, and I’ll do my best to help you. Last Updates: 23/11/21 Skillshare Vs MasterClass Quiz 19/11/21 Skillshare Vs MasterClass Published Catherine Cooke Hey. I am Catherine and have been working as a freelancer for many years now and I believe that you are in charge of your own destiny. If learning a new skill or having a career change is something you want to do, then there is no better time than the present. 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0.993405	Tottenham 3-2 Vitesse: Antonio Conte makes winning start to new era at Spurs in Europa Conference League - US Clock News Menu US Clock News Search for World US Politics Entertainment Tech Sports Education Gaming Search for Sidebar Breaking News Riot-hit Solomons begins clean up as more foreign troops arrive AI: The Somnium Files – nirvanA Initiative Official Box Art Reveal Healthy Gut Plan – Laura Thompson Community Spotlight: The brilliance of Animal Nuz, Daily Kos’ first exclusive comic strip Wood-burning ban extended through Sunday for South Coast region Humans Have Evolved to Stay Active Even in Old Age, New Hypothesis Claims A Pandemic Guide to Anime: Light horror and ghostly shenanigans Sudan military says several soldiers killed in Ethiopian attack California resort turns into long-term housing option for unhoused veterans and families Israel to ban entry of all foreigners over Omicron variant Science Health Fashion Life Style Travel Home/Sports/Tottenham 3-2 Vitesse: Antonio Conte makes winning start to new era at Spurs in Europa Conference League Sports Tottenham 3-2 Vitesse: Antonio Conte makes winning start to new era at Spurs in Europa Conference League Us Clock News Team3 weeks ago 9 minutes read Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest WhatsApp Antonio Conte witnessed the size of the task he faces as Tottenham head coach on a chaotic opening night in charge as his new side resurrected their Europa Conference League aspirations with a thrilling 3-2 win over nine-man Vitesse. Heung-Min Son (14), Lucas Moura (22) and a Jacob Rasmussen own goal (28) had put Spurs in total control, but after Rasmussen headed in from a corner to reduce the deficit (32), Matus Bero added a second for the visitors before the interval (39). There were no goals in the second half, but three red cards ensured there was no shortage of drama as Cristian Romero was sent off for a second bookable offence (59) before Vitesse defender Danilho Doekhi (81) and goalkeeper Markus Schubert (84) received their marching orders. The result leaves Spurs second in Group G as they leapfrogged Vitesse while Rennes’ 1-0 victory over Mura ensured the Ligue 1 club still sit in first place. Image: Tottenham trail Rennes by three points Player ratings Tottenham: Lloris (8), Dier (6), Romero (5), Davies (6), Emerson (7), Skipp (6), Hojbjerg (6), Reguilon (7), Lucas Moura (7), Kane (6), Son (7). Subs: Sanchez (6), Winks (6), Lo Celso (n/a), Ndombele (6). Vitesse: Schubert (5), Doekhi (5), Rasmussen (6), Wittek (6), Dasa (6), Bero (7), Bazoer (7), Tronstad (6), Buitink (6), Gboho (5), Frederiksen (6). Subs: Openda (7), Darfalou (6), Oroz (n/a) Houwen (n/a). Man of the match: Hugo Lloris. Conte sees the good and the bad on opening night Image: Antonio Conte stands on the touchline “I don’t like when this type of crazy game happens,” Conte said after riding a rollercoaster of emotions. “I want a stable team and when there is the possibility to kill the opponent you must kill. For sure my team showed me great commitment and resilience. For sure, this team needed to win by also suffering. It was important today.” Nuno Espirito Santo’s ill-fated 124-day came to an end on Monday after just 17 games in charge with Tottenham 10 points behind Premier League leaders Chelsea. But Spurs also entered Conte’s first game third in their Europa Conference group, three points behind leaders Rennes and two points behind their Dutch opponents. Team news Antonio Conte named a full-strength side for his first game as Tottenham head coach against Vitesse Arnhem in the Europa Conference League. Conte, who replaced Nuno Espirito Santo on Tuesday, named Hugo Lloris, Harry Kane, Heung-Min Son and Lucas Moura in the side for the third-tier European competition. It looked like a possible 3-4-1-2 formation, with Moura in the number 10 position. Spurs need a win to boost their chances of qualifying for the knockout stages, having lost the reverse fixture in Holland a fortnight ago. Ahead of kick-off, there was a nod to the past as Toby Alderweireld was belatedly given an official send-off by supporters as the club’s special guest. The Belgian defender joined Qatari outfit Al-Duhail in the summer but with Conte now at the helm, there was more than a lingering feeling he might have liked Alderweireld still in his ranks. With his visa approved, the Italian went to work immediately on the myriad issues he must address. Having signed an 18-month contract at the club with an option to extend, he witnessed an immediate response. Image: Heung-Min Son gave Conte the perfect start Inside two minutes, Son raced onto a slide-rule pass from Romero but his shot beyond Markus Schubert was cleared off the line by Doekhi. With no VAR in use, Spurs were then very fortunate not to concede a penalty as Ben Davies appeared to catch Nikolai Baden Frederiksen just inside the box. Spurs made full use of the reprieve as after Schubert denied Moura and the follow-up from Harry Kane, he was helpless to prevent Son from slotting from an acute angle. 3 – Son Heung-min has now scored Tottenham’s first goal under each of their last three permanent managers (Jose Mourinho, Nuno Espirito Santo and Antonio Conte). Induction. pic.twitter.com/HiSlI2AuAL — OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 4, 2021 Tottenham were in full flow and swaggered into a two-goal lead when Kane turned provider for Moura to calmly slot home following another swift attacking move as Conte expressed his delight with his coaching staff. And the former Chelsea boss must have felt the task at hand was easy when the hosts added a third six minutes later. There was a degree of good fortune about the goal as Davies ran onto Sergio Reguilon’s pass to fluff his shot into the ground. Kane looked to react quickest to the loose ball but the retreating Rasmussen could not halt his momentum, diverting the ball into his own net. Image: Emerson Royal and Vitesse’s Lois Openda The incident sparked unsavoury scenes in the away end which had been simmering from the start as travelling supporters clashed with Spurs fans in the corporate section directly above them, but those involved were quickly dispersed by police presence. Back on the pitch, and the scars of Spurs’ 3-0 defeat by Manchester United and the damaging results which put paid to Nuno’s reign still hadn’t healed. Vitesse immediately found a foothold in the game when Rasmussen atoned for his mishap by evading Eric Dier to plant a firm header beyond Hugo Lloris. Conte was visibly irked by the softness of the concession and he was even more distraught when Spurs were punished for overplaying at the back. A slack pass from Moura was gobbled up by Yann Gboho and he squared for Bero to stroke a precise finish into the far corner. Vitesse boss Thomas Letsch introduced Lois Openda at the break – omitted from his starting XI having been late to a team meeting – and he very nearly completed the comeback when he forced Lloris into a brilliant one-handed save from his rising shot nine minutes after the restart. Image: Heung-Min Son celebrates his opener Vitesse had never beaten an English club in a UEFA competition, or even scored a goal against them, until their victory over Tottenham in October – but they sensed the chance of a famous turnaround when Romero was sent off for a second bookable offence by referee Marco Di Bello after he tugged back the lively Openda. It made for a nervy final half an hour as Conte switched to a back four. Tottenham were clinging on when Riechedly Bazoer forced Lloris into another stupendous save from distance as Conte made a triple change, summoning Davinson Sanchez, Harry Winks and Tanguy Ndombele. The momentum swung Tottenham’s way, however, when Doekhi joined Romero in seeing red after wrestling Kane to the ground for his second booking, and referee Di Bello was not finished there as goalkeeper Schubert was shown a straight red card when he raced from his line to save from Emerson Royal when outside of his box. Image: Conte barks instructions at his new players Giovani Lo Celso really ought to have added a late fourth when released by fellow substitute Winks and while his shot was deflected agonisingly wide, Spurs had their victory. Ironically, Jose Mourinho’s opening home league game also saw his side cling onto a 3-2 win having been pegged back by Bournemouth in November 2019, but supporters hope that is where the similarities will end. Tottenham might have been eliminated had they lost to the Eredivisie outfit for a second time in a fortnight, and while Europe’s third cup competition has been derided in some quarters, lifting the trophy in Tirana next May will already be in serial winner Conte’s thoughts. For a start it’s an automatic ticket into the Europa League, and it would simultaneously end the club’s wait for silverware, which will extend into a 14th year. Conte shook hands with supporters as he headed down the tunnel in the knowledge he may not secure a more hard-fought victory, whatever happens in the remainder of his reign. What the managers said.. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Conte says the club has great potential, as he praised the stadium and training facilities Tottenham boss Antonio Conte on BT Sport: “It was a crazy game, usually I don’t like this types of games, the crazy game means anything can happen. But at the same time I think we should win, and we won. For sure we were winning at 3-0 and then they scored two goals that we can avoid. “Then after our red card, we were in trouble, but I think to win suffering is good for this team, for these players, and they needed to improve their confidence. I think they needed to work a lot, and we have to find the time to work. But now it is international break. “Tonight they wanted to win, and for this season we won. For sure we have to improve, and I think that this is a positive thing. In my opinion there is a lot of space for improvement for this team, in every single player. 2 – Spurs’ win over Vitesse featured five goals and three red cards; just the second time this has happened in a game in major European competition this century, along with Braga 4-1 Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Europa League in 2016. Mayhem. pic.twitter.com/HLHeYPJY0P — OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 4, 2021 “It’s not easy because in two days we prepare for this game against Everton. It’s only one day because I think tomorrow it’s impossible to work with the players that played tonight, because they used a lot of energy. “We need to have a bit of patience because we need to work on many aspects – tactically and physically, and I ask for the players to understand what I want. “But I am not afraid about the work. Because in my life I know only through work you can reach important target.” Vitesse boss Thomas Letsch: “The feeling is something between disappointment and pride as I feel we did a really good game. We started the game really fast and forced them to make mistakes but then in three situations we weren’t good enough and we saw Spurs’ quality. But I really liked the way we came back. “In the second half, it doesn’t matter if it was 10 against 11, I thought we dominated and as Vitesse in this stadium you can be proud of that. Ultimately we are disappointed as we lost the game.” Analysis: Is Conte’s Spurs squad actually any good? Image: Conte saw the good and the bad on opening night Sky Sports’ Ben Grounds at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium: This was a quite bonkers night in which neither side wanted to defend, and then neither wished to keep their discipline. In some ways, it was very unlike what you’ve come to expect from Conte, who went strong for his first game in charge, aware of what was stake in this competition, irrespective of being keen to make a first good impression. For the opening 30 minutes he must have thought this was a very simple job in reinvigorating Tottenham. Three unanswered goals had Vitesse reeling as they couldn’t cope with Spurs’ swift transitions down both flanks. Ben Davies and Cristian Romero were carrying the ball out from defence and Oliver Skipp and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg were controlling midfield. Image: Heung-Min Son scored the first goal And then, it all unravelled, reminding Conte of the size of the task ahead. Eric Dier was beaten far too easily at the set play for the Dutch side’s first reply and when Lucas Moura was caught trying to be too elaborate playing out from the back, it would seem too simplistic to say the state of Spurs’ implosion was down to a lingering lack of confidence. But those insecurities which plagued the tail end of Nuno Espirito Santo’s tenure certainly then came roaring back as Conte grew increasingly agitated on the touchline. Romero’s red card added to the sense of angst and Spurs were in the end indebted to Hugo Lloris’ brilliance on two occasions before Vitesse lost their cool. It was some start to the new era, and question marks remain over just how good the players are at Conte’s disposal, but Tottenham fans won’t mind if they always end up winning under their vibrant new head coach. What’s next? Image: Lucas Moura celebrates with team-mates Tottenham visit Goodison Park to face Everton on Sunday in the Premier League; kick-off 2pm. Spurs return to Europa Conference League action on Thursday November 25 when they visit NS Mura; kick-off 5.45pm.
0.99953	Quick links... Weather Coronavirus In Depth Uplifting Arizona Health Insider Operation Safe Roads Investigations Let Joe Know Impact Earth Things To Do CW61 Arizona Contests 1 weather alerts 1 closings/delays News Actions Facebook Tweet Email Debbie Wasserman Schultz confronts FBI director James Comey Posted at 6:23 PM, Jan 13, 2017 and last updated 2017-01-14 10:55:37-05 WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Former Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz confronted FBI Director James Comey Friday in a contentious closed-door exchange, a lawmaker in the room told CNN. Wasserman Schultz, who was forced to resign her post atop the DNC over the summer following a steady release of hacked DNC emails, challenged Comey during a classified briefing for House lawmakers about the intelligence assessment that Russians meddled in the U.S. election. Her questions, which were described by the lawmaker to CNN as "confrontational," focused on why the FBI didn't reach out directly to her, or any of the committee's senior leadership, when it became aware of the hacks. Wasserman Schultz repeatedly accused Comey of failing to take the proper steps to inform her team of what happened and failing to underscore the importance of the event in the limited contact that did occur. The lawmaker told CNN that Comey pushed back in an exchange that lasted nearly 10 minutes and defended the FBI's response. It was clear to Democratic lawmakers, many of whom chided Comey at various points of the closed-door briefing for his role in investigating Hillary Clinton's emails, that Comey never reached out to Wasserman Schultz, the lawmaker said. Wasserman Schultz later said in a statement to CNN that she wouldn't compromise any information said in the meeting but that Comey should clarify the agency's policies when investigating the hacking by foreign governments. "There are further questions that must be answered by Director Comey, who must provide more clarity on this and other questions that have arisen surrounding the FBI's handling of Russian hacking during the 2016 election cycle," she said in the statement. A message left with the FBI seeking comment Friday night was not immediately returned. Wasserman Schultz wasn't the only one disappointed with Comey. Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters emphatically told CNN after the meeting that Comey has "no credibility." "It's classified and we can't tell you anything. All I can tell you is the FBI director has no credibility. That's it," she said. And another source told CNN that New York Democratic Rep. Jerrold Nadler pressed Comey on his decision to investigate the Clinton emails, and Comey defended his decision and explained why he took his course of action. Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings told CNN he was "willing to give" Comey "the benefit of the doubt" about the whole issue. "I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt with regard to initially coming out. As a lawyer, I can tell you I've never heard of the FBI -- if they were going to drop the case, telling you why or giving an explanation -- so I thought that was unusual," he said. "But I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. But there's been a lot that has happened since then. Today, I must tell you, when I left the hearing, I felt a great sense of disappointment." The meeting comes after Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz announced Thursday that he is probing the FBI's handling of the investigation into Clinton's private email server during the 2016 presidential election. The decision revived Democrats' arguments that Comey helped swing the election in President-elect Donald Trump's favor. When asked, Cummings said he has faith with how Horowitz will handle the investigation. "I think Horowitz will turn over every stone. I hope he will get the cooperation he needs," he said, later adding, "We have a duty and the IG has a duty to try and look at this, figure out where we are, what we're doing and move on from there. I think this is a point in the FBI's history where we've gotta have a mirror put up to make sure it maintains its credibility." Wasserman Schultz stepped down in July after hacked emails appeared to show DNC workers showing favoritism toward Clinton over Sen. Bernie Sanders, who mounted an insurgent campaign against her. Copyright 2017 Scripps Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
0.922975	Cristiano Ronaldo marked his record-breaking 178th Champions League appearance with a 95th-minute winner as Manchester United snatched a 2-1 victory over Villarreal at Old Trafford on Wednesday. End Group F. MD 2 Man. Utd 2-1 Villarreal 29 SEP 2021 The five-time Ballon d'Or winner had barely threatened until he fired past Geronimo Rulli at the back post to ease the mounting pressure on United manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer with virtually the last kick of the game. United were staring down the barrel of another embarrassing group stage exit from the Champions League after deservedly falling behind early in the second half to Paco Alcacer's smart finish. Alex Telles' stunning strike quickly levelled, but a sixth draw from open play in as many meetings between the sides was on the cards until Ronaldo's late intervention. Despite the result, there was little in the performance to quell the growing questions as to whether Solskjaer is the man to get the best out of a squad of supremely talented individuals that are yet to click as a collective. Bruno Fernandes' stoppage-time penalty that ended up in the Stretford End condemned United to a 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa on Saturday, but Solskjaer showed his backing for the Portuguese midfielder by handing him the captain's armband in the absence of Harry Maguire. Luke Shaw was also missing due to injury, while Aaron Wan-Bissaka was suspended after being sent off in the 2-1 defeat to Young Boys on matchday one. A makeshift United defence looked as such in the first half as Villarreal wasted a host of chances to inflict more misery on the Red Devils after beating them in May to win the Europa League. Arnaut Danjuma toyed with stand-in United right-back Diogo Dalot, but the Dutch winger firstly fired straight at David de Gea and was then denied by a brilliant finger-tip stop by the Spanish goalkeeper. De Gea was the fall guy in the Europa League final as he was the only player of the 22 on both sides to fail to score in a marathon penalty shootout. September 29, 2021 United fall behind However, he has started the season in supreme form and was needed to save his side once more midway through the first half to turn Alcacer's header over. Stand out news 'France Football' considers giving Ballon d'Or 2020 to Lewandowski: "We may consider it" Seven GOATs guarded the Eiffel Tower for Messi's Ballon d'Or win Christensen sparked Barca's interest England women rewrite record books in 20-0 thrashing of Latvia Alcacer then fired wide with just De Gea to beat after an error from Raphael Varane and botched a two-on-one counter-attack with a poor pass to Yeremi Pino. United did not heed their first-half warnings as eight minutes into the second period another promising break from Danjuma finally got the finish it deserved as Alcacer prodded through the legs of De Gea at the near post. Telles was at fault for the opening goal as he played Danjuma onside. But the Brazilian quickly made amends in spectacular fashion as he volleyed home Fernandes' free-kick from outside the area. Solskjaer had named an extremely offensive line-up with Ronaldo flanked by Jadon Sancho and Mason Greenwood, and Paul Pogba alongside Fernandes in midfield. But it was another night to forget Sancho since his £73 million move from Borussia Dortmund in July. The England winger was easily kept in check by Juan Foyth before being replaced 15 minutes from time by Edinson Cavani. The Uruguayan had a golden chance to instantly make himself the hero, but somehow headed wide with the goal gaping from Greenwood's perfect cross. De Gea saved United once more five minutes from time in a goalmouth scramble to deny Moi Gomez and Boulaye Dia. And Villarreal's profligacy in front of goal came back to haunt them as the all-time top goalscorer in Champions League history showed them how to finish. Jesse Lingard turned a loose ball Ronaldo's way deep into stoppage time and his effort had too much power for Rulli.
0.999484	Duchess Of Cornwall meets Geri Horner and Alexandra Burke at Commonwealth Essay Competition \| Daily Mail Online Home U.K. News Sports U.S. Showbiz Australia Femail Health Science Money Video Travel Shop DailyMailTV Latest Headlines Meghan Markle Fashion Finder Food Shopping Gardening Parenting Blog Games My Profile Logout Login Privacy Policy Feedback Thursday, Dec 2nd 2021 7AM 47°F 10AM 51°F 5-Day Forecast Advertisement White NYC woman, 52, who plowed BMW through 50 Manhattan BLM protesters rejects plea deal with six days community service and demands TRIAL: Says mob attacked her $80,000 car as she drove down street Vaccines for kids under FIVE next year, more boosters, testing for travelers - but no lockdowns or quarantines: Biden's winter plan to fight COVID unveiled less than 24 hours after the US reported first Omicron case Dr Fauci warns Americans might have to receive COVID vaccine every year - but says it's STILL safe to travel for the holidays despite Omicron arriving in US 'We're working on it Peter!' 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I'm sorry!' while admitting he TASERED cop during Jan 6 violence Previous Next Pop princesses! Duchess of Cornwall chats to Geri Horner and Alexandra Burke at St James's Palace reception for winners of the Queen's Commonwealth Essay Competition Camilla gave speech to winners of Queen's Commonwealth Essay competition She met Royal Commonwealth Society Ambassadors Geri and Alexandra Burke Duchess awarded the winner and runners up with certificates at the reception The contest is the world's oldest international writing competition for schools By Monica Greep For Mailonline Published: 11:42 EST, 28 October 2021 \| Updated: 14:16 EST, 28 October 2021 e-mail 101 View comments The Duchess Of Cornwall appeared in high spirits as she met with Alexadra Bruke and Geri Horner to host a reception for the winners of the Queen's Commonwealth Essay Competition today. Celebrating the world's oldest international writing competition for schools, the Duchess stepped out at St James' Palace in London to award winners and runners up with their certificates. Camilla, 74, cut an elegant figure in navy suit and warmly greeted 49-year-old Spice Girl Geri Horner, who looked stunning in a long-sleeved white silk dress, decorated with silver embellishes and button detailing. In October 2019, the singer attended the ceremony at Buckingham Palace before being named an inaugural for the Royal Commonwealth Society. She also attended the Commonwealth Service at Westminster Abbey in March last year. The Duchess Of Cornwall appeared in high spirits as she hosted a reception for the winners of the Queen's Commonwealth Essay Competition today Camilla, 74, cut an elegant figure in navy suit and warmly greeted 49-year-old singer Geri Horner, who looked stunning in a long-sleeved white silk dress The popstar has a long history of meeting the royal family. Geri's 'cheeky' first meeting with Prince Charles in May 1997 became one of the most famous moments in pop culture history when she reportedly pinched his bottom during an event in Manchester. The following year, after Geri sensationally quit the group, Charles reportedly wrote to her expressing his sadness at her departure. RELATED ARTICLES Previous 1 Next How cuddly Camilla is leading the rise of touchy-feely... Saying 'I do' at Althorp! Charles Spencer's friend Pamella... A society soirée! Duchess of Rutland joins daughters Violet,... Ioan Gruffud's estranged wife Alice Evans should be admired... Share this article Share 'The group will not be the same without you', he was said to have written. 'What will I do without your wonderfully friendly greeting?' The singer has since become an ambassador of The Prince's Trust and the pair most recently caught up at the Savoy Hotel in February 2019 for a charity event. Geri, who made a speech at the event, teamed her vintage look with an elegant pearl necklace and killer suede heels while wearing her red dresses in a loose blow dry around her shoulders. The Queen's Commonwealth Essay Competition was founded in 1883 and other Royal Commonwealth Society ambassadors at the event included Alexandra Burke Back in October 2019, the former Spice Girl, pictured greeting Camilla today, attended the ceremony at Buckingham Palace before being named an inaugural for the Royal Commonwealth Society Geri's dress was decorated with silver embellishes and button detailing and she teamed her vintage look with an elegant pearl necklace and killer suede heels while wearing her red dresses in a loose blow dry around her shoulders. Celebrating the world's oldest international writing competition for schools, the Duchess stepped out at St James' Palace to award winners and runners up with their certificates The Queen's Commonwealth Essay Competition was founded in 1883 and other Royal Commonwealth Society ambassadors at the event included Alexandra Burke, Gyles Brandreth and actor Femi Elufowoju Jr. Each year, aspiring young writers are asked to submit their pieces in response to a theme. Recent themes have included Climate Action in the Commonwealth last year and A Connected Commonwealth in 2019. X Factor winner Alexandra Burke, 33, donned a monochrome suit with a simple black clutch bag as she greeted the Duchess at the event this afternoon. A record-breaking 25,648 children entered the competition in 2021 from every Commonwealth region with the competition theme being Community in the Commonwealth. Camilla addressed the young writers at the event, who were tasked with submitting their pieces in response to the theme 'Community in the Commonwealth' Camilla, who has already championed the cause of literacy, is seen giving a speech as she awarded the winners of this year's Queen's Commonwealth Essay Competition L-R; RCS Ambassador, Gyles Brandreth, Mei Fong, Chair of the RCS, Linda Yueh, Junior Runner-up, Raisa Gulati, Camilla, Duchess of Cornwall, Femi Elufowoju Jr, Senior Winner, Kayla Bosire, Geri Horner, Dame Susan Hill and Senior Runner-up, Aditi Nair Former Spice Girl Geri, who is an ambassador of The Prince of Wales' charity The Prince's Trust, gave a speech at the event Former MP and broadcaster Gyles Brandreth appeared in good spirits as he addressed the audience at the event today The Duchess of Cornwall meets Senior Runner-up, Aditi Nair during a reception for winners of The Queen's Commonwealth Essay Competition today The theme for the 2021 competition was 'Community in the Commonwealth' and other RCS ambassadors included David Walliams, Lewis Pugh, Stephen Fry, and Bollywood actress, Kareena Kapoor. Journalist Mei Fong, broadcaster Gyles, chair of the RCS, Linda Yueh and competition judge Femi all made a speeches at the event. The junior runner-up of the competition was was Raisa Gulati while the senior runner-up was Aditi Nair and the senior winner was Kayla Bosire. Earlier this year Camilla, who has already championed the cause of literacy, launched an online book club aiming to be a 'celebration of literature' and, she hopes, a hub for literary communities around the world. Ambassador to the RCS, Alexandra is seen posing with Camilla and 2020 winner Cassandra Nguyen Senior winner Kayla Bosire (left) and senior runner-up, Aditi Nair (right) are presented with their certificates at the event this afternoon The Duchess of Cornwall presents junior runner-up, Raisa Gulati with a certificate during the reception for winners Camilla appeared in good spirits as she chatted with guests at the reception held for winners of The Queen's Commonwealth Essay competition 2021 this afternoon Camilla is seen presenting the Junior Winner from 2020, Cassandra Nguyen, with a pen during the reception for winners The Duchess of Cornwall is pictured meeting junior runner-up, Raisa Gulati at the reception this afternoon She has previously highlighted favourite books by authors including William Boyd, Charles Dickens, Susan Hill and Philip Pullman. Camilla was inspired to set up the free initiative as a result of the phenomenal response to two suggested reading lists she published during lockdown. The Duke of Edinburgh, an avid reader, was the proud patron of Booktrust, the UK's largest children reading charity, for several years before passing the role on to Camilla in 2011. Advertisement Share or comment on this article: Duchess Of Cornwall meets Geri Horner and Alexandra Burke at Commonwealth Essay Competition e-mail Comments 101 Share what you think Newest Oldest Best rated Worst rated View all The comments below have not been moderated. View all The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. We are no longer accepting comments on this article. Bing Site Web Enter search term: Search Advertisement Follow DailyMail Subscribe Daily Mail Follow @dailymail Follow DailyMail Follow MailOnline Follow Daily Mail Femail Today Christine Quinn's changing face: The Selling Sunset star famous for her 'burgers and Botox' parties is unrecognizable from her Netflix debut in 2019 That '70s show! 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Former 'Sexiest Man Alive' showcases new rose face inking with wife Behati Prinsloo at Art Basel party in Miami Katy Perry shares snaps from Thanksgiving with Orlando Bloom in California: 'Taxes may be high but so are our temperatures' . Alessandra Ambrosio steps out in LA with a copy of her new coffee table book in hand that features artistic nude snaps of the model Kelly Osbourne reflects on the 'hardest year' of her life... after being 'fat shamed' following sobriety battle Meagan Good leaves little to the imagination with a black bodysuit and a mesh skirt at the premiere for her series Harlem in New York City Advertisement Cardi B's new line of vodka-infused whipped cream sells out within MINUTES as she promises fans more Victoria's Secret vet Behati Prinsloo shows off her supermodel curves in a skimpy black bikini while on the beach in Miami Rooney Mara nails gothic glam in black lace gown with sheer bodice and cropped jacket at premiere for Guillermo del Toro's Nightmare Alley in NYC Padma Lakshmi, 51, showcases her figure in strapless brown leather pencil dress at NY premiere for movie Nightmare Alley Lady Gaga opens up about her first acting role in an episode of The Sopranos as a teenager: 'I can see exactly what I did wrong' Draya Michele sizzles in a busty green blouse and spandex shorts as she steps out in Los Angeles The Masked Singer: Faith Evans reveals identity after performing as Skunk in Group A finals on Fox Ben Affleck says it was 'beautiful and a great story' reconnecting with on-again flame Jennifer Lopez as he covers WSJ Magazine Rita Moreno, 89, reveals she dated Elvis Presley after catching then-beau Marlon Brando cheating on her: 'It was wonderful' Mariska Hargitay halts Law & Order: SVU shoot to politely shush disruptive street performer in Washington Square Park in viral video Advertisement Sandra Bullock reveals she struggled with PTSD after home invasion - and turned to EMDR therapy (same as Prince Harry) because she was 'gonna die if she didn't pull together' Nicole Scherzinger is set to take the stage on The Masked Singer... in her first performance on the show Nick Jonas shares sweet video of wife Priyanka Chopra as the two celebrate their third wedding anniversary Kim Kardashian puts her killer curves front and center in two sexy bodysuits as she showcases the latest additions to her SKIMS range Game of Thrones prequel cost $30 MILLION for just one pilot episode... but it was AXED because HBO bosses ruled it didn't 'deliver' Norah Jones and Mickey Guyton belt out some festive tunes at the 89th Lighting of the Rockefeller Christmas Tree in New York City Ashley Benson sports a colorful jacket and black sweats as she stocks up on dog food at a pet shop in LA Emma Raducanu puts on a leggy display in a striking white and black mini dress as she poses up a storm at Tiffany event Jonah Hill sports bushy beard and long hair as he gets into character as rock legend Jerry Garcia on set of Martin Scorsese's Grateful Dead biopic Renee Zellweger, 52, and Ant Anstead, 42, step out for casual dinner date with his two-year-old son Hudson in New Orleans Advertisement Nicole Kidman cuts a stylish figure in a blazer and jeans as she steps out in New York City - as her new film Being the Ricardos gets rave reviews 'Maybe this isn't the story we think it is!' The Matrix Resurrections hints at 'big changes' and 'déjà vu' as frenetic teaser reveals familiar black cats and blue pills Aaron Paul and wife Lauren are expecting baby number 2: 'We can't wait to meet you baby!' Whitney Port looks stylish in white and beige outfit as she and husband Tim Rosenman shop at cannabis dispensary Sweet Flower in LA Cobie Smulders will return to MCU for Secret Invasion ... in which she will reprise role of Maria Hill alongside Samuel L. Jackson One of the Nigerian brothers in Jussie Smollett trial tells court they visited 'clubs, strip clubs and bathhouses' together and actor asked him to buy 'weed, cocaine and molly' La La Anthony is dwarfed by her towering 14-year-old son Kiyan... but lovingly teases 'I'll still knock him out if I need to!' Awkwafina will take on Count Dracula as she joins Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult in Universal's monster movie Renfield Lisa Vanderpump mourns the loss of her golden retriever Rumpy who died from cancer: 'We will always love him' Kaley Cuoco admits to feeling sad as she turns 36: 'Sometimes it's okay to not feel totally okay' Advertisement Teresa Giudice's former New Jersey mansion back on market for $2.25M after pending offer falls through Paris Jackson recalls childhood memories of godmother Elizabeth Taylor who had her eighth and last wedding at Michael Jackson's Neverland Ranch Elizabeth Hurley, 56, slips into another racy Versace dress for sizzling shoot - 27 years after wowing in THAT safety pin dress Henry Cavill is every inch the doting son as he brings his glamorous mother Marianne as his date to The Witcher season 2 premiere Miley Cyrus makes Forbes 30 Under 30 list AGAIN... a week after turning 29: 'It was now or never' Kourtney Kardashian shuts down pregnancy rumors after sharing sexy bikini snaps from Palm Springs holiday with fiancé Travis Barker Kim Kardashian is 'showing suppressed anger' towards Kanye West while he is 'keen to challenge' her romance with Pete Davidson, expert claims Christina Aguilera will be presented with the People's Choice Awards 2021 Music Icon Award by Becky G at televised show on December 7 Olivia Rodrigo tops Spotify's year-end chart with Driver's License earning most-streamed title... as rapper Bad Bunny earns top artist of 2021 Vanessa Hudgens shows off her toned derriere in a tight-fitting athleisure outfits from Kate Hudson's Fabletics Advertisement Julia Lemigova kisses her tennis ace wife Martina Navratilova in new RHOM teaser... as she makes history as first openly lesbian Real Housewife Jen Shah argues fraud case should be THROWN OUT as she claims jury pool is tainted by remarks federal agents made on Hulu doc about the scandal 'I'm just glad that she is solo': Harry Hamlin weighs in on daughter Amelia Gray's split from Scott Disick and says she is 'doing great' on her own Cara Delevingne joins the cast of hit Hulu comedy series Only Murders In The Building starring Selena Gomez for its second season Gigi Hadid cuts a casual figure as she arrives in Mallorca with her entourage for a getaway - after Zayn Malik and Yolanda Hadid altercation 'We always do it big!' Ice-T and wife Coco throw epic SpongeBob themed party for daughter Chanel's 6th birthday Henry Cavill cuts a dapper figure as he joins glamorous co-star Anna Shaffer - who wows in an electric blue dress - at The Witcher season two premiere Anderson Cooper cradles his 19-month old son Wyatt sleeping on his chest as he shares tender beach snap Vivica A. Fox, 57, showcases her incredible figure alongside Jeremy Meeks, 37, as they step out for the premiere of True To The Game 3 Kris Jenner looks chic as she leaves London hotel with Tommy Hilfiger and Dee Ocleppo after whirlwind UK trip Advertisement Former Wife Swap star, 36, accuses producers of doing 'horrible things' to her family and 'exploiting her pain' for profit - calling show the 'worst mistake' of her life 'I don't want to be worshipped': Dolly Parton, 75, reflects on why celebrity culture makes her 'cringe' Cate Blanchett and Kevin Kline sign on to star in new AppleTV+ thriller Disclaimer directed by Alfonso Cuaron Bachelor star Colton Underwood says he abused Xanax while struggling to 'suppress' his sexuality, admitting he took 'a lot' of pills in the hopes he wouldn't 'wake up' Sailing back into society! Ivanka models $3,450 pink Louis Vuitton mini dress as she and Jared cruise to star-studded Miami fashion show honoring late Virgil Abloh What HAS happened to Meghan and Harry's $25m Spotify podcast deal? Royal couple have produced NO content in 2021 despite promising shows that would 'build community' Michael B. Jordan gushes about relationship with Lori Harvey as he talks about scrutiny with going public: 'I finally found what love was' Chrissy Teigen gets into pajama party mode with husband John Legend as they celebrate her 36th birthday bash in robes Demi Rose sizzles in a black thong and diamante suspenders before changing into a skintight nude bodysuit Lily Allen cuts a stylish figure as she steps out in New York wearing a lime green cardigan and checkerboard jumper layered beneath chic coat Advertisement Emily Ratajkowski looks chic in Miu Miu jacket and skirt as she cuddles up with son Sylvester, eight months, in cute snaps Bindi Irwin makes a sweet promise to her brother Robert as she pays tribute to him on his 18th birthday The wildlife warrior, 23, posted a picture from her wedding day Kendall Jenner looks hot to trot while posing for her latest fashion campaign at horse ranch Josh Duggar's cousin Amy asks for prayers that he will get the 'ultimate sentence' in his child pornography trial - after slamming the father-of-seven as 'disgusting and evil' Sex offender inmate jailed at same facility as Josh Duggar after his April arrest is ordered to testify in today's child porn trial America's Next Top Model vet Sarah Hartshorne claims she was only paid $40 A DAY as a contestant on Tyra Banks' hit reality show UNCANCELED: Dave Chappelle's former high school now U-Turns and decides to stand by star by going ahead and naming its theatre after him despite controversy over his Netflix special 'We make great artists': Euphoria's Hunter Schafer talks being trans in the acting world... as she goes braless in sheer top for Harper's Bazaar Juliette Lewis and Ed Begley Jr sign on to join cast of the upcoming adaptation of Queer as Folk Dax Shepard explains how enforcing a 'no TV for the weekend' ban for his daughters ended up being a 'barbaric punishment' for him and Kristen Bell Advertisement 'If you go to a party, you fing rage': Dakota Johnson discusses returning to post-vaccine life as she poses in Gucci faux fur coat for quirky shoot LeAnn Rimes flashes taut tummy and rocks a black sports bra while leaving a hair salon with a fresh blowout in LA Serena Williams and her mini-me daughter Olympia, 4, wear matching leopard-print pajamas in adorable snaps Selling Sunset's Mary Fitzgerald, 41, kisses husband Romain Bonnet, 28, during cozy walk in London after revealing plans to freeze embryos Jersey Shore's Mike 'The Situation' Sorrentino marks six years of sobriety: 'Today we celebrate being a champion' Dakota Fanning shares a glimpse from her sunny beach trip to Capri after taking a break from filming the Showtime series Ripley Tori Spelling still has 'major trust issues' with estranged husband Dean McDermott years after he cheated... as impending divorce rumors persist Trevor Noah to return as host of 2022 Grammys Awards... as it will be the first time gala is held at soon to be renamed Crypto.com Arena Great British Baking Show judge Prue Leith, 81, poses as she gets her Covid booster jab - after Prime Minister Boris Johnson renewed calls for the public to get vaccinated Carole Middleton reveals she has a 'very silly Christmas' in store for her grandchildren Prince George, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis Prince Harry compares HIV and Covid pandemics as he blames 'corporate greed and political failure' for prolonging both in new UN-backed video Meghan Markle's top advisor has been working behind-the-scenes to promote the Duchess's pet issue and get universal paid leave legislation passed using her White House links Embattled Empire actor Jussie Smollett was caught on security cameras doing 'dry run' one day before alleged hate crime attack, court hears as trial prepares to enter its third day Leigh-Anne Pinnock breastfeeds her three-month-old child in candid new photo before hitting red carpet of new film Boxing Day in risqué gown Maskless Bill Nye teams up with 'Amtrak Joe' and is roasted for 'demented' and 'cringe-inducing' White House video promoting president's infrastructure bill Gal Gadot cuts a casual figure as she steps out for shopping trip with her daughter in LA Charlize Theron puts her beach body on full display in sexy swimsuit as she enjoys another beach day in Cabo San Lucas with her mother Gerda Peaky Blinders season 6 FIRST LOOK - 'I think I may have written your final act': Tom Hardy is BACK as Alfie gets a message from Tommy Shelby in shadowy glimpse at final season Pete Davidson watches the Knicks with sister Casey as his new flame Kim Kardashian attends Louis Vuitton presentation with Kanye West... after musician predicted they'll reunite Anti-vaccine Christian broadcaster Marcus Lamb dies from Covid-19 aged 64 days after wife asked listeners to 'pray for his lungs to clear' LeBron James 'tests positive for COVID-19' and enters NBA's health and safety protocol: Lakers star is scratched from game in Sacramento and rushed back to LA on private jet Packers QB Aaron Rodgers accuses Green Bay coaching staff of leaking medical information about his injured toe to media Nicky Hilton puts on a leggy display in a thigh-split sequinned gown as she joins husband James Rothschild for Footwear News Achievement Awards 'Life with you:' Kourtney Kardashian shares steamy kiss with fiancé Travis Barker as they soak in a jacuzzi during Palm Springs getaway Annabelle Wallis and Matthew Goode ooze elegance as they step out for Silent Night screening in LA... as their co-star Keira Knightley battles Covid 'Snoremas!' Liam Gallagher brands Christmas at Noel's house 'boring' as he reveals warring siblings won't spend the festive period together Kylie Minogue, 53, displays her enviable frame in floral catsuit as she poses for behind-the-scenes snaps before Fashion Awards performance Kim Kardashian keeps a low profile while picking up estranged husband Kanye West en route to runway show honoring their late friend and designer Virgil Abloh in Miami Selling Sunset's Mary Fitzgerald shares a kiss with husband Romain Bonnett during London outing Selling Sunset ladies have got competition! Netflix launches spin-off real estate show in Tampa featuring a VERY glamorous all-women team touting lavish properties Doja Cat rocks a skimpy top while headlining the first stop of the iHeartRadio Jingle Ball Tour in Fort Worth, Texas 'It was the answer to my problems, and the cause of them': Edie Falco says she 'found her nirvana' with alcohol before going sober at 29 Kate Nash announces new single and shares nostalgic snap of herself in a crop top leaving fans in a frenzy Alec Baldwin's live bullet that killed Rust cinematographer may have been recycled ammo and supplied by armorer as part of stash used to train actors on firing range And Just Like That.... first official trailer! SATC is back with a VERY saucy bang as Carrie talks public masturbation and gets steamy with Big Money Heist's Ursula Corbero swaps her red jumpsuit for a racy cut out gown as she joins co-stars for season 5 photocall Chrissy Teigen turns 36! Star celebrates her birthday with an al fresco candlelit dinner complete with stunning ballet performance Sandra Bullock shimmers in a sequin jumpsuit and black blazer on the red carpet at NY premiere for her Netflix drama The Unforgivable Jennifer Coolidge says she gained 40lbs during lockdown from eating up to 'SIX pizzas a day' which made her want to turn down White Lotus role Jessica Simpson, 41, looks thinner than ever in her skinny jeans as she shows off her figure... after losing 100lbs then giving up alcohol Kim Kardashian and estranged husband Kanye West join daughter North on the front row at Louis Vuitton vigil for late designer Virgil Abloh Donald Trump says Meghan Markle 'disrespected' The Queen and 'horribly' used Harry in new interview with British politician Lizzo puts on a VERY cheeky display as she makes 'a art' while clad in a thong during fun painting session Hilaria Baldwin reveals she's had 'heart-wrenching' conversations with her children about husband Alec's on-set Rust shooting Vanderpump Rules: Katie Maloney-Schwartz stops working on new restaurant with husband Tom Schwartz Sandra Bullock puts her high-rise condo in West Hollywood's Sierra Towers on the market for $4.5 million... but keeps a second condo in the same building 'I'm cancer-free:' Kathy Griffin opens up on health after having half of lung removed after doctors discovered a tumor Dwayne Johnson and Ryan Reynolds' action movie Red Notice is now the most watched movie in Netflix history after racking up 328 MILLION viewing hours despite terrible reviews Kylie Jenner celebrates the 6th anniversary of Kylie Cosmetics... nearly a month after baby daddy Travis Scott's deadly Astroworld Festival Tammy Hembrow stuns in a figure-hugging sheer dress as she shows off her new sparkler after announcing engagement to fiancé Matt Poole Beyoncé strikes a pose with daughters Blue Ivy, nine, and Rumi, four, in matching houndstooth athleisure in her star-studded new Halls Of Ivy drop Couples who dress together, stay together! Pia Whitesell and husband Patrick wear near-matching outfits as they enjoy Art Basel in Miami Married At First Sight star Elizabeth Sobinoff shows off her VERY slender figure in lingerie after losing 22lbs Advertisement DON'T MISS Alessandra Ambrosio shows off her sculpted abs in a black crop top as Brazilian model leaves an LA gym after working holiday in Hawaii Romeo Beckham's model girlfriend Mia Regan nails casual-cool in striped jumper and loose-fitting jeans at Tommy Hilfiger event Halle Berry lands a new overall deal with Netflix after her directorial debut Bruised debuts as the #1 film in the U.S. on the streaming service Katy Perry called fashion designer Katie Perry a 'dumb b*h' in bombshell emails after she made a bitter David vs Goliath trademark dispute, court hears Zac Efron's model ex-girlfriend Vanessa Valladares takes her dog for a walk as she catches up with friends in Byron Bay Simon Baker looks dashing at the Moët & Chandon Effervescence event following split from activewear designer girlfriend Laura May Gibbs Just like dad! Robert Irwin is the spitting image of his late father Steve as he celebrates his 18th birthday at Australia Zoo Madison Beer cuts a trendy figure in brown mini dress and black leather jacket as she enjoys dinner with boyfriend Nick Austin at Craig's Pictured: Aaron Carter lays out on his driveway after sudden split from fiancée Melanie Martin... as he fears his family want to place him under a CONSERVATORSHIP Matthew McConaughey reveals how his Australian gap year shaped him as a person after his pampered upbringing in Texas Smell like royalty! Stephanie of Monaco launches Princess of Hearts perfume inspired by her 'generous soul' with some proceeds going to her HIV charity - but it'll cost you $370 Fashion's Succession moment: Zara heiress Marta Ortega, 37, who began career as a sales assistant bypasses older half sister and brother to become Inditex chairman Victoria Beckham, 47, proves she is more flexible than EVER as she pulls her signature pose in picture taken by Romeo's girlfriend... before poking fun at her unsociable son Lucy Liu stuns in a metallic peplum evening gown at the UNICEF at 75 Celebration in New York City Orlando Bloom puts on a dapper display in a pinstriped suit as Sofia Carson stuns in vintage Dior at UNICEF's 75th anniversary 'Seriously!?' Viewers are left baffled by woke smoking warning displayed at the start of The Beatles: Get Back docuseries on Disney+ 'I want my eight hours back!' The Beatles fans are divided over Peter Jackson's 'long and boring' docuseries Get Back... but director doggedly defends epic 468 minute running time Ashleigh Banfield says Katie Couric admitting she felt too threatened to help rival inspired mentorship program that will kick off with Gayle King interview Missouri-born entertainer Josephine Baker becomes the first black woman and only sixth woman ever to be granted a tomb in the Pantheon in Paris Virginia Giuffre accuses Prince Andrew of 'shaming her' with 'defamatory' attacks in court filing opposing royal's attempts to throw out her sex abuse case against him Nicole Kidman mourns the loss of Indigenous Australian actor David Dalaithngu after Crocodile Dundee star dies aged 68 following a battle with lung cancer Cristiano Ronaldo's elite cop twin brother bodyguards 'are investigated in Portugal for providing personal security without permission' Leigh-Anne Pinnock admits she's 'just about functioning' after welcoming twins in August - after wowing at Boxing Day film premiere Katie Holmes flaunts tiny waist in Kate Spade dress for the fashion house's SS/22 presentation in Brooklyn Vin Diesel writes a heartfelt message to the late Paul Walker about their daughters... on the eighth anniversary of his tragic passing Clayton Echard FINALLY confirmed as the new Bachelor... as first season 26 teaser reveals kisses and tears The Voice: Gwen Stefani and Blake Shelton proudly show off their wedding rings on reality show's results episode Kendall Jenner's 818 Tequila launches limited-edition merchandise to help support 'sustainability efforts' and 'rural Mexican communities' The Bachelorette: Michelle Young eliminates Rodney Matthews after 'hometown' dates in Minnesota Lil Nas X goes shirtless in a silver skirt and cowboy hat as he takes to the stage for the iHeartRadio Jingle Ball Tour in Texas Prince William is 'frustrated' BBC is helping The Crown makers Netflix 'commercialise' infamous Martin Bashir interview Ashley Roberts looks effortlessly stylish in color blocked neutrals with a contrasting $1,700 Balenciaga skirt as she heads to work at Heart Radio in London Miguel and his estranged wife Nazanin Mandi seem to be having a blast as they reunite while she recovers from eye surgery Celebrity hairstylist Jen Atkin raised more than $81K for Los Angeles-based dog rescue in memory of her beloved pet Chewy who was killed by a coyote Miley Cyrus cuts an edgy figure in all-black and combat boots as she gives the rock 'n roll salute outside music studio in LA 'We talk all the time and we prioritize each other': Priyanka Chopra explains how she keeps her long-distance marriage to Nick Jonas happy Emily Ratajkowski models a leather mini dress under a long coat as she plugs her 'empowering' book about 'the cult of beauty' while in London Jessa Duggar, 29, celebrates anniversary with husband Ben Seewald by recreating an old romantic snap with their four kids - as her brother Josh's child porn trial gets underway Khloe Kardashian flashes her toned legs in a bodysuit... after ex Tristan Thompson is heckled at a basketball game about his link to the pinup It's her 'monthiversary'! Paris Hilton celebrates 30 days of marriage to Carter Reum as she shares new wedding photo: 'I'm so proud to be yours' Dr Oz announces he is running for the US Senate as a Republican in Pennsylvania to 'help us heal' because we are 'angry at the government and each other' The Matrix Resurrections stars Keanu Reeves and Carrie-Anne Moss cuddle up as they discuss 20-year effortless connection: 'It is like a soul friendship' Kristen Stewart pairs a bomber jacket with Justin Bieber's Drew slippers in NYC... after release of her Princess Diana biopic Spencer Tamra Judge tells ex-best friend Shannon Beador to 'STFU you victim-liar' after RHOC star said she's 'not engaging' in feud Jen Shah's assistant Stuart Smith is pictured for first time after flipping on the RHOSLC star by changing his plea to GUILTY in $5m telemarketing scam Chicago cop testifies Jussie Smollett told him one of his attackers was WHITE - after actor's lawyers claimed black brothers who beat him were 'criminals' trying to frame him Kris Jenner is every inch the proud momager as she snaps photos of daughter Kylie's window display at Harrods in London Kim Kardashian to be honored with the Fashion Icon Award at upcoming 2021 People's Choice Awards star 'will be honored for single-handedly transforming industry' Judas And The Black Messiah star LaKeith Stanfield showcases musical talent as he shares audition video for 2019 Cats film... and reveals he lost role to Jason Derulo Emily Ratajkowski celebrates her book tour with pouty selfie and a night of 'intimate' conversations about 'empowerment' What an honor! Cate Blanchett is 'absolutely chuffed' to be Adele's fashion muse Chrishell Stause laughs it up with Selling Sunset co-star Emma Hernan... after revealing how she felt about Justin Hartley remarrying THREE months after divorce Rachel Brosnahan's Midge desperately tries to salvage her standup career after the fallout from her firing in new trailer for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Beyoncé releases star-studded new advert for Halls Of Ivy drop featuring Natalia Bryant and Reese Witherspoon's daughter Ava Phillippe 'Without a doubt, superior to the 1961 film': Steven Spielberg's West Side Story remake wins rave reviews after world premiere... with viewers branding movie an 'amazing triumph' Demi Moore, 59, risks taking a tumble while assisting a bleeding male pal and being supported by aides during calamitous departure from British Fashion Awards Little Mix singer Leigh-Anne Pinnock narrowly avoids a wardrobe malfunction as she forgoes underwear in a daring dress at Boxing Day premiere Perrie Edwards and Jade Thirlwall look typically stylish as they support Little Mix bandmate Leigh-Anne Pinnock at Boxing Day premiere Where's the rest of the Material, Girl? Madonna, 63, flashes her underwear as she spreads her legs in a mini dress while partying with Dua Lipa Iggy Azalea reveals her Christmas plans with her 19-month-old son Onyx after admitting she is open to finding love again following ugly split with Playboi Carti Olivia Rodrigo makes a pitstop for romance as she kisses boyfriend Adam Faze on the side of a road... after nabbing SEVEN Grammy nods Michael J Fox, 60, reveals how he has been able to deal with the 'dark' phases while battling Parkinson's Disease for the past 30 years Kanye 'Ye' West aims to help the homeless population in Los Angeles and meets with city leaders to establish plan Megan Barton-Hanson blasts the Kardashians for being 'misleading' about cosmetic work... a year on from THAT Scott Disick spat Braless Rihanna is a vision in orange Bottega Veneta dress as the first president of Barbados is sworn in - and singer becomes only second ever woman named as country's National Hero The Weeknd, Olivia Rodrigo and H.E.R and win big at the 2021 Apple Music Awards Kyle Richards stars as a merciless mom determined to win her town's Christmas decorating contest at any cost in the first trailer for The Housewives of the North Pole Jacob Elordi refuses to discuss then-girlfriend Kaia Gerber in Esquire interview... following split from girlfriend of one year Some stars never age! Mad About You vet Helen Hunt, 58, dazzles at the Gotham Awards in a tank top that shows off her sculpted arms 'My a is hot in this photo!' Chrishell Stause shows off her sizzling frame in a black corset as she jokes about her bottom while posing beside a fire Olivia Colman is the picture of elegance in chic black dress complete with cut-out detailing as she attends premiere of gritty drama Landscapers Paul Walker's daughter Meadow pays touching tribute to her late father on eighth anniversary of his death: 'Today and everyday I celebrate your life' Ethan Hawke looks dapper in a black suit as he makes a rare appearance with wife Ryan at 2021 Gotham Awards The Voice's Wendy Moten returns with BOTH arms in casts after she broke right elbow and fractured left wrist in THAT fall on live TV Jennifer Aniston to lead star-studded live re-enactment of The Facts Of Life for ABC alongside Gabrielle Union and Kathryn Hahn 'I'm lucky to be alive and also have a limb': Emotional Tiger Woods discusses severity of horrific car crash and spending three months in a hospital bed Crown Prince of Japan reveals HE decided his daughter Princess Mako shouldn't have a traditional Shinto wedding due to husband's financial scandal West Side Story star Rita Moreno, 89, wears a shimmering gown on red carpet for Steven Spielberg's musical remake... 60 years after winning Oscar for the original Hailey Bieber wows in a skin-tight catsuit with a bust-boosting corset while Zoë Kravitz is a vision in a patterned mini as they lead the glamour at Art Basel Mick Jagger's ballerina girlfriend Melanie Hamrick shows off her incredible physique in gruelling strength workout Tristan Thompson has fan ejected from Memphis basketball game 'for heckling him about the Kardashians' days after LeBron James had fans booted for taunting him Victoria Beckham shares a glimpse of her healthy lunch as she hangs out with son Romeo while he enjoys a pizza after the British Fashion Awards Mel B's lookalike daughter Phoenix Brown, 22, keeps things casual in a hoodie as she attends games event It's supposed to be the Fashion Awards! Actress Wallis Day dons a crotch-flashing caped bodysuit while Priyanka Chopra goes full-on floral as they lead worst dressed on red carpet Fashion Awards 2021: Demi Moore, 59, displays VERY smooth complexion as she joins Kate Beckinsale, 48, and model Adriana Lima, 40, at event Adele CONFIRMS Vegas residency! Hello singer FINALLY announces long-speculated concerts as she prepares to take the stage at Caesars Palace for four months in 2022 Celeste Barber responds to critics who say she's 'mean' - and reveals why she isn't worried about offending celebrities like Kylie Jenner with her parody videos 'It catapulted my career and changed my life': Selling Sunset's Heather Young reveals she posed naked for Playboy before becoming a star and has 'no regrets' 'I'm on the right meds thanks to no doctor or conservatorship!' Britney Spears gives a health update after legal battle and reveals she 'gets high' from fasting for up to FOUR DAYS 'For years I couldn't watch myself as a child in a music video:' Billie Piper reveals therapy helped her cope with looking back at early fame and says she relates to Britney Lorenzo Lamas announces his mother and 1950s Hollywood star Arlene Dahl has passed away at 96 in New York City Bradley Cooper and Irina Shayk look a picture of bliss with daughter Lea after sparking speculation romance is back on Supermodel Paulina Porizkova reveals how late husband Ric Ocasek was 'obsessed' with her and controlled her life, saying he told her what to wear and what jobs to do Reach for the cards! S Club 7's Paul Cattermole launches new career as a YouTube tarot card reader 23 years after becoming a popstar Royally tired: Moment Prince Charles falls ASLEEP at midnight ceremony to mark Barbados becoming a republic ending four centuries with British monarch head of state Prince Andrew grins as he rides through Windsor while Ghislaine Maxwell's sex trafficking trial begins in New York Maggie Gyllenhaal makes rare appearance with teenage daughter as film The Lost Daughter scores four wins at Gotham Film Awards in NYC Alice Evans shares throwback snaps with estranged husband Ioan Gruffudd - after claiming he 'bought cocaine while filming new TV show but had to leave it' in now-deleted post Hugh Jackman, 53, pays loving tribute to wife Deborra-Lee Furness on her 66th birthday Cara Santana flaunts her toned abs in a plunging black sports bra and leggings as she leaves a workout session in West Hollywood Selling Sunset's Mary Fitzgerald, 41, reveals she'll freeze her embryos while she and husband Romain Bonnet, 28, focus on their careers Bethenny Frankel and Jason Hoppy heading back to court over custody of daughter Bryn, 11, as war between exes rages on Travis Scott's offer to pay funeral expenses for Astroworld victim Ezra Blount, nine, is rejected by family who say rapper 'bears some of the responsibility for this tragedy' Khloe Kardashian sports $332 Dannijo x Mambacita sweats to escort daughter True to dance class Jussie Smollett's lawyer tells trial Empire star didn't lie about homophobic attack and insists actor is a 'real victim of a 'real crime' Ashley Roberts nails androgynous chic in pinstripe suit and Nike trainers as she makes stylish exit from Heart Radio The Pussycat Dolls star Queen congratulates Barbados on becoming a republic as island cuts ties with UK: Rihanna attends ceremony where Prince Charles says slavery 'forever stains our history' Kate's Christmas carols! Duchess sends out invites to service that will be broadcast on ITV after the Cambridges 'dropped' the BBC amid royal documentary row Prince Albert of Monaco pays tribute to singer Josephine Baker - a close friend of his mother Grace Kelly - at solo engagement as wife Princess Charlene remains in treatment Jessica Alba poses with lookalike daughter Honor and sips a margarita in a cute 'photo dump' from Thanksgiving Marilyn Manson's apartment is RAIDED by sheriff's investigators who seized hard drives while probing claims he sexually assaulted women including his ex Evan Rachel Wood Dakota Johnson, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Kristen Stewart, and Tessa Thompson glam up for The Gotham Awards in NYC Julianne Moore hits the red carpet in black suit before presenting the Performer Tribute Award to Kristen Stewart at the 2021 Gotham Awards Olivia Culpo looks leggy in a bright strapless mini dress with ruffles as she makes a glamorous appearance at 2021 British Fashion Awards Adriana Lima puts on a racy display in a bejewelled white coord as she lies on the FLOOR at 2021 Fashion Award's cocktail reception A Law unto herself! Model Iris flashes her bottom while modelling a striking silver bra and semi-sheer skirt as she leaves the star-studded 2021 British Fashion Awards Pregnant Skins and Maze Runner actress Kaya Scodelario cradles her baby bump in a frilled silver mini dress as she attends the Fashion Awards Lila Moss, 19, showcases her model physique in a sporty Burberry mini dress as she heads to the Fashion Awards Lady Amelia Windsor puts on a glamorous display in a shimmering off-the-shoulder gown and golden clutch as she departs the British Fashion Awards Thandiwe Newton looks incredible in silver cut-out dress - as she swaps her heels for slippers while leaving Gotham Awards in New York City Kylie Minogue, 53, busts her best moves at the Fashion Awards after party as she wows in a teal mini dress March of the models! Winnie Harlow and Shanina Shaik sizzle while Jourdan Dunn shows off her legs at Fashion Awards after-party Winnie Harlow commands attention in a quirky padded quilted co-ord at the 2021 Fashion Awards Jenna Coleman looks ethereal in a billowing Grecian style gown as she attends the Fashion Awards She always exudes elegance Strike a Pose! 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Tennis world no.3 Garbine photos of Caribbean break with Tom Ford exec Arthur Borges - just months after end of his marriage to Finnish 'Ice Princess' skater Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck organize a food drive at his Pacific Palisades home after spending Thanksgiving together with their families Joanne Froggatt reveals Sir Mick Jagger 'loves' Downton Abbey and even 'cut short a Rolling Stones rehearsal' to watch the period drama Look away, Jesy! Emily in Paris star Lucien Laviscount cozies up to GoT's Hannah John-Kamen and a bevvy of beauties in another humiliating blow to ex Little Mix star Kodi Smit-McPhee reveals the one thing co-star Benedict Cumberbatch wouldn't talk about on the set of new film The Power of the Dog The Voice: Ariana Grande praises Jim and Sasha Allen for 'best performance to date' as Top 10 sing Even MEL BROOKS's friends told him a musical about Nazis was crazy. But as he reveals in his riotous memoir, it won him an Oscar... and launched eccentric movie career Gabrielle Union commands attention in neon green cut-out gown with huge train at the 2021 Fashion Awards Elsa Hosk goes barefoot as she kicks off her towering Jimmy Choo stilettos to celebrate at the 2021 British Fashion Awards afterparty Frail Phil Collins, 70, performs from a chair at Genesis' The Last Domino? Detroit concert - as singer battles debilitating health condition Martyr turned melody maker? 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Fans express their concern for Martine McCutcheon, 43, after Love Actually star looks 'too thin' in latest snap 'I've got the acting bug now': Leigh-Anne Pinnock discusses new film Boxing Day - after former bandmate Jesy Nelson was spotted in a clinch with her ex Rita Ora goes braless in a slinky blue satin dress as she sizzles in series of glamorous social media snaps Sultry display Trey Songz is at the center of a sexual assault probe in Las Vegas according to police following an alleged incident on Sunday Kelly Osbourne pictured out for the first time since revealing she was 'back on track' following relapse after four years of sobriety Iris Law and her brother Rafferty are dressed to impress for the Fashion Awards 2021 as they wow on the red carpet in standout ensembles Hugh Jackman and Naomi Watts lead tributes to Indigenous actor David Gulpilil as the Crocodile Dundee star dies aged 68 following a battle with lung cancer Lily Allen defiantly displays her figure in a backless jumpsuit at the Fashion Awards - after hitting out at 'skinny shamers' who expressed concerns over her 'slim' look Jussie Smollett arrives at court for his hoax race attack trial: Jury selection gets underway and brothers who say Empire actor paid them to beat him will take the stand later this week Billie Piper wows in a quirky baby blue gown and thigh high stockings as she attends the Fashion Awards Rihanna has 'arrived in Barbados for the inauguration of its first president' after her home country decided to remove the Queen as head of state, local media claims Tiffany Haddish and Common SPLIT after 16 months of dating: 'They are just too busy for a serious relationship' Victoria's Secret model Emily DiDonato announces birth of her daughter with heartwarming post: 'She's here and she's perfect' Who is Bader Shammas? Everything to know about Lindsay Lohan's fiancé... as the private pair get engaged after two years of dating Gucci family eviscerates 'far from accurate' House of Gucci film, accusing the Lady Gaga-led movie of portraying them as 'thugs' and 'insulting the legacy' of the brand The Bachelor's Colton Underwood cries in trailer for Netflix series as he admits he's 'ashamed' for hiding sexuality and putting ex Cassie Randolph 'through hell' Zendaya showcases her enviable legs in a chic taupe maxi dress as she joins dapper boyfriend Tom Holland for romantic dinner in Paris Today's headlines Most Read Santa, take note! From an indoor puppet theatre to a beautiful bike and an enchanting den, FEMAIL reveals the best children's gifts for a magical Christmas - with prices from £6 Ask the expert: How can you rebalance winter skin? Five simple tips everyone can follow in the cold weather Alan Cumming's celebrity confessions: Actor reveals how he crashed JLo's 2001 wedding, stood up to Stanley Kubrick and praised Jessica Lange's breasts during a naked scene in deliciously candid memoir Ad Feature Tis the season! 5 expert tips for hosting the ultimate festive drinks party this year Pick of the High St party pieces: FEMAIL picks out the best buys for sophisticated style this festive season I laughed at my brain tumour - otherwise I'd never stop crying: Actress Charly Clive was 23 when she got the devastating diagnosis. Here, she shares how she and her best friend have turned her story into a new BBC comedy Revenge is sweet! Heartbroken people reveal the extreme ways they got their own back on cheating exes - from destroying a vintage car to setting their shoes on fire MORE HEADLINES Sailing back into society! Ivanka models $3,450 pink Louis Vuitton mini dress as she and Jared cruise to star-studded Miami fashion show honoring late designer Virgil Abloh aboard boat called 'It Was All A Dream' Dyeing for her day in court? Jill Duggar shows off new 'do on Instagram after coloring her hair for the first time - as she is named as a potential witness in child porn trial of older brother Josh, who abused her and her sisters as kids Playboy model is kicked out of Florida mall after stripping down and covering her nude body in Nutcracker-themed PAINT to hand out nuts in bizarre festive stunt Josh Duggar's cousin Amy asks for prayers that he will get the 'ultimate sentence' in his child pornography trial - after slamming the father-of-seven as 'disgusting and evil' Transgender reality star Jazz Jennings admits she was in a 'dark, dark place' while documenting her 100lb weight gain and eating disorder on her reality show - after revealing her own family 'fat-shamed' her Sandra Bullock reveals she struggled with PTSD after her home was invaded in 2014 - and turned to EMDR therapy (the same as Prince Harry) because she knew she was 'gonna die if she didn't pull it together' I do... again! 98-year-old veteran and wife who were forced to abandon their dream wedding so he could go to war FINALLY get their fairy tale ceremony 77 YEARS after they first tied the knot MOST READ IN DETAIL Advertisement SHOP BY CATEGORY These are the best Fashion deals you’ll find online. 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0.991034	A successful sales proposal can make the difference in winning or losing a sale. There isn’t a secret to it, but there are steps you can take that will help you close deals and perfect your sales game. In this article you will learn: How to prepare for a potential client How to format and structure your sales proposal 15 comprehensive steps to writing a sales proposal What Is a Sales Proposal? A sales proposal is a document that outlines products and/or services to a prospective buyer. The proposal details the benefits, deliverables, and costs. Follow these 15 steps and every proposal you develop will be a thorough, thoughtful document that wins sales. How Do You Write a Sales Proposal?[Template] Start with an Outline Know Your Buyer’s Problem Write a Killer Executive Summary Do Market Research Offer the Solution Identify the Deliverables Know Your Audience Be Straightforward with the Pricing What Is the Call-to-Action Provide Testimonials Presentation Is Important Keep It Simple Proofread. Proofread Again Meet in Person or Turn Your Video On Follow Up 1. Start with an Outline The best way to begin a proposal is by writing an outline. Start by listing the parts of a sales proposal that need to be addressed. Utilizing a template helps make things easier. Once you have a proposal you are happy with, you can use it as a template for future sales enablement content. Structure your sales proposal to include the following: Introduction: Introduce your business, your team, and your product/service. In addition, you can include social proof and testimonials that highlight success. Summary: Describe the customer’s challenges/problems and detail the potential issues that will arise without taking action. The summary sets you up to discuss how your product/service will correct challenges and provide an opportunity for success. Market Research: Ensure that you’ve done proper research not only on your customer and their needs but on the market and competitors as well. Deliverables: This is the section where you will detail your approach. Share the objectives, milestones, and timelines. This doesn’t need to include every detail, save some information for your meeting. Benefits: This is your place to shine. Show prospective buyers the value your product/service provides. The language you choose here matters most. This is where you will either grab their attention or lose their attention. Cost: Pricing is one of the first things buyers look for. Make this clear and give several options. For example, offer a high and low cost, depending on the product/service provided. Pro tip: Ensure that your presentation matches what your audience wants to read. Not every client proposal will be identical. Make changes based on the prospective client, the industry, and their needs. 2. Know Your Buyer’s Problem Understanding your buyer’s needs is key to delivering the right solution. You can do this with proper customer research. You may find there are additional challenges the buyer hasn’t thought through completely. This is a great opportunity to build value in your solution. As you’re developing this section address these questions: What are the potential customer’s needs and pain points? How can I help uncover problems and challenges? Often, the buyer doesn’t know, so this is where previous conversations come in handy. Use your CRM! How does our solution solve their problems? What differentiates my solution from competitors? Build more qualified pipeline and hit your number today with Drift’s Virtual Selling Assistants. 3. Write a Killer Executive Summary What is the purpose of a sales proposal? Remember that this document is about the customer, not about you. It’s about showing the client that you understand their problem and how to solve it. The executive summary is the perfect place to show how well you understand the customer and their needs. Your customers will appreciate feeling understood more than anything else. An executive summary should be clear and straightforward. State the problem and then the solution. It’s helpful to include this in a separate cover letter. 4. Do Market Research Understanding your customer reaches far beyond just their business. It includes understanding the market, direct competitors, and anything else that affects the buyer. Including a brief summary of your market research will show a buyer that you have invested a lot of time in them to offer the most personalized solution. Remember, however, that your buyers are busy. Hit the high points – but don’t overwhelm them with data. Sometimes the market research doesn’t require a separate section. But it may help you in understanding the buyer’s challenges. Use this data to your advantage. A few questions to ask as you perform market research: What solutions did the buyer use previously? What were the positives and negatives? Who are the direct and indirect competitors? How do they compare? What are the competitors doing better than the buyer? Market research is also key to many other aspects of a large and small business including identifying new business, improving performance, testing new markets, and exacting search engine optimization (SEO). 5. Offer the Solution This is the meat and potatoes of a winning sales proposal. Above all, present yourself as an expert. If you don’t believe it, neither will they. Explain the solution and how it will meet the needs of the buyer. Include an objective and relevant milestones. Make it powerful but straightforward. You can go into further detail during the in-person (or Zoom) meeting. A prospective client will want to know how you will achieve results through your sales team and accountability. A winning sales proposal should include a convincing solution to their problem. Learn how to better understand your buyers with the Conversational Sales Formula. 6. Identify the Deliverables Once you’ve laid out the solution, identify the deliverables. Keep this section simple but actionable. As we mentioned above, details can be discussed during the meeting or once the buyer has agreed to the proposal. Providing too many details early on can elicit questions that aren’t needed at the beginning of a relationship. The client will want to see an approximate timeline, so be sure to include this with your deliverables. Provide an easy-to-read calendar or a bulleted list of dates. 7. Know Your Audience Your proposal should speak to the needs of your prospective client. Understanding the buyer’s problem is one important step that we spoke to above. Learn more about their company and apply that knowledge when writing the sales proposal. If you don’t want to get ghosted, this is key. Find out their values, motivations, what differentiates them from the competition, future growth plans, and anything else that might be relevant to the proposal. Once you know your audience, tailor the proposal to them. Make them feel understood and you should have no trouble gaining their business. 8. Be Straightforward with Pricing The cost can be a deal-breaker or a deal maker. There should always be a budget discussion prior to creating the sales proposal. This ensures that you and your buyer are on the same page before investing time into the document. Propose several different options for pricing. Offering options gives buyers a feeling of control. Choose three different price points from high to low. Break down the cost so that the buyer can see the value. A concise chart or list of costs is easiest to read. Where you place this information is important. It’s best to share pricing directly following the benefits. This will allow the buyer to connect the dots. 9. What Is the Call-to-Action? This is where many businesses falter. A call-to-action (CTA) is the most important conclusion when writing sales proposals. Set yourself up for success by telling the buyer their next step. Use language that assumes they will approve the proposal. If your tone is unsure, your buyer will be too. The CTA will differ depending on the client, but should always bring you closer to closing the deal. Remember, you should always be closing with each step of the sales process and a winning proposal is no different. If you know that the customer needs to have an internal meeting before making a decision, make yourself available to them. Offer to be on stand-by should any questions arise. And, offer to make copies of the proposal. Finally, offer to be at the meeting. Pro tip: Make the call-to-action clear and ask for the outcome you want; a purchasing decision. Conversational Sales is the fastest way to build trust and credibility with buyers to turn them into customers. It accelerates your sales process by connecting you with buyers at the right time. Get certified today. 10. Add Testimonials (aka Social Proof) The sales proposal should include endorsements from clients you’ve helped successfully. Highlight testimonials from clients in a similar industry or with similar business challenges. The goal is to be impactful. Like anything else, quality over quantity is the name of the game with testimonials. One exceptional testimonial is more powerful than three so-so testimonials. Once you have the approval to use a client as a testimonial, include these details: Customer name and company Customer title Direct quote from the customer Short description of the solution Results and timeline Don’t ignore the positive influence of testimonials. Examples of how your solution applies to real-life scenarios can add much-needed social proof to persuade new clients. 11. Presentation Is Important Your proposal content might be stellar, but if the presentation is poor, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. Once you’re happy with the proposal details it’s time to really make it sing. We highly recommend using templates. Once a template is designed, it’s easy to pop the content in for the next proposal and make minor changes as needed. If you’re creating a new proposal layout with each buyer, you’re wasting a lot of time. There are several important presentation aspects: Clear titles and headlines: Consistency is key. Each section should have a clear title or headline and should look the same. Make it easy for your buyer to skim through the pages to find information. Design: Color and font choices should also be consistent. If one headline is bold, every headline should be bold. Don’t use more than one or two fonts in the sales proposal, and always choose a font that’s easy to read. Often, business proposals are read on mobile devices. Ensure easy readability on both mobile and desktop computers. Visuals: The brain processes images faster than text. 90% of information transmitted to the brain is visual, so it only makes sense to utilize graphic design and include images. Relevant graphs and tables can be helpful in persuading your buyer. The presentation will vary depending on the type of sales proposal. Don’t just let your Design team whip up something on their own. Make sure to pass on a low-fi version with comments on the look and feel you want. You know your buyer best, so do what you feel is right. Sometimes a Request for Proposal (RFP) will specify the way a sales proposal template should be designed. In that case, you will need to make edits to meet those expectations. 12. Keep It Simple Keep things simple for prospective clients. Instead of using technical jargon, use language everyone can understand. Don’t assume your potential client will understand. Always use layman’s terms to avoid confusion and frustration. Make things as easy as possible for a successful deal. A few tips to keep your sales proposal simple: Don’t oversell Utilize lists to make things easy to read Avoid generalizations – it’s the #1 reason you’re not closing more. Make connections regarding the problem and solution Be available to answer questions (and stay away from these phrases) 13. Proofread. Then Proofread Again. Nothing turns off a client more than incorrect grammar and spelling errors. Consider how a buyer would feel seeing their business name misspelled. It’s hard to rectify a major error like this. Give yourself time to proofread the sales proposal several times. Then ask a couple of others to proofread the document as well. It’s easy to miss things when you’ve spent a lot of time proposal writing. A new pair of eyes will bring a fresh perspective. There are free online resources that can help with proofreading as well. Hemingway App can help improve readability. Grammarly is helpful with grammar and spelling. There are others online as well. 14. Meet in Person or Turn Your Video On Remote meetings are still very much the reality for much of the world. Buyers are busy but, when it’s safe to do so again, you can ask to schedule an in-person meeting to make an impression. But no matter if you’re meeting in person or with your video on, it’s always better to go through a sales proposal with the buyers face-to-face. Never just send it over email and hope for the best. Guide them toward the outcome you want. If the buyer pushes back when you suggest a meeting (again – in person or virtual), it’s okay to be straightforward. Tell them that you feel it is in their best interest to meet so that you can clarify, expand and answer any questions or specific problems they may have. That means you need to be prepared when you meet. Have valuable information that isn’t included in the proposal. Be ready to answer additional questions. If meeting in person or over Zoom is not an option, Drift Video can help you engage buyers with quick, personalized videos and GIFs – so you can start more conversations, shorten sales cycles, and connect with more of the buying committee. Learn more about using Drift Video to close deals here. 15. Follow Up You’ve completed the sales proposal and met with your prospective client. Now what? Often, sales professionals drop the ball once a proposal is complete. A proper follow-up should happen two or three days after the meeting. This gives the buyer a chance to review the proposal with their team but continues to keep it fresh in their minds. A phone call is an ideal follow-up to answer questions, overcome objections and confirm the next steps. Consistent communication is important for successful sales. — You’ve made it! These 15 steps are key to writing a winning sales proposal. Which step will help you the most? Editor’s Note: This article was published in January 2020 and has been updated to reflect new information.
0.94619	The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December 2016 was +0.24 deg. C, down substantially from the November value of +0.45 deg. C (click for full size version): The resulting 2016 annual average global temperature anomaly is +0.50 deg. C, which is (a statistically insignificant) 0.02 deg. C warmer than 1998 at +0.48 deg. C. We estimate that 2016 would have had to be 0.10 C warmer than 1998 to be significantly different at the 95% confidence level. Both 2016 and 1998 were strong El Nino years. The 38 years in the satellite record, ranked from warmest to coolest (and ignoring statistical uncertainty) are: RANK YEAR deg.C. 01 2016 +0.50 02 1998 +0.48 03 2010 +0.34 04 2015 +0.26 05 2002 +0.22 06 2005 +0.20 07 2003 +0.19 08 2014 +0.18 09 2007 +0.16 10 2013 +0.13 11 2001 +0.12 12 2006 +0.11 13 2009 +0.10 14 2004 +0.08 15 1995 +0.07 16 2012 +0.06 17 1987 +0.05 18 1988 +0.04 19 2011 +0.02 20 1991 +0.02 21 1990 +0.01 22 1997 -0.01 23 1996 -0.01 24 1999 -0.02 25 2000 -0.02 26 1983 -0.04 27 1980 -0.04 28 1994 -0.06 29 2008 -0.10 30 1981 -0.11 31 1993 -0.20 32 1989 -0.21 33 1979 -0.21 34 1986 -0.22 35 1984 -0.24 36 1992 -0.28 37 1982 -0.30 38 1985 -0.36 The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 24 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS 2015 01 +0.30 +0.44 +0.15 +0.13 2015 02 +0.19 +0.34 +0.04 -0.07 2015 03 +0.18 +0.28 +0.07 +0.04 2015 04 +0.09 +0.19 -0.01 +0.08 2015 05 +0.27 +0.34 +0.20 +0.27 2015 06 +0.31 +0.38 +0.25 +0.46 2015 07 +0.16 +0.29 +0.03 +0.48 2015 08 +0.25 +0.20 +0.30 +0.53 2015 09 +0.23 +0.30 +0.16 +0.55 2015 10 +0.41 +0.63 +0.20 +0.53 2015 11 +0.33 +0.44 +0.22 +0.52 2015 12 +0.45 +0.53 +0.37 +0.61 2016 01 +0.54 +0.69 +0.39 +0.84 2016 02 +0.83 +1.16 +0.50 +0.99 2016 03 +0.73 +0.94 +0.52 +1.09 2016 04 +0.71 +0.85 +0.58 +0.93 2016 05 +0.54 +0.65 +0.44 +0.71 2016 06 +0.34 +0.51 +0.17 +0.37 2016 07 +0.39 +0.48 +0.30 +0.48 2016 08 +0.43 +0.55 +0.32 +0.49 2016 09 +0.44 +0.49 +0.39 +0.37 2016 10 +0.41 +0.42 +0.39 +0.46 2016 11 +0.45 +0.41 +0.50 +0.37 2016 12 +0.24 +0.19 +0.30 +0.21 The UAH global image for December, 2016 (and annual image for 2016) should be available in the next several days here. The new Version 6 files should be updated soon, and are located here: Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt 836 Responses to “Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998” Toggle Trackbacks jimc says: January 3, 2017 at 7:38 AM I can imagine what the propaganda machine will make of statistically insignificant. Reply George E. Smith says: January 3, 2017 at 4:57 PM Well as far as the actual universe is concerned, ANYTHING statistical is totally irrelevant. The universe neither knows nor cares about statistics. It only knows what to do with current real time values, and it does what they dictate. G Reply AlanF says: January 5, 2017 at 5:15 PM How much of the heat island effect is elevated dew point because of combustion of fossil fuels? Reply Trevor Marr says: January 18, 2017 at 6:08 PM The Maunder Minimum does not care about how humans benefit from fossil fuel and oil. We simply need the gov’t to issue 2 cards, but you can ONLY sign 1 card. Card#1 – I support Fossil Fuels/oil. Card#2 – I do not support Fossil Fuels/oil. You can only sign 1 card. But in order to get gas, propane, plastic, anything made with fossil fuels/oil, or drive a car, ride a bus, take a plane to the Tropics like our PM does, anything powered by fossil fuels/oil, use a computer, cell phone, iPhone, or even try to buy a banana from another Country brought to Canada via fossil fuels/oil, then YOU must present a signed card #1! There will not be many signed #2 cards! THAT will get rid of all the eco hypocrites! We need optimization/innovation for the ‘capables’, not senseless subsidization of the ‘incapables’! When it gets COLD again, like during the Little Ice Age. Will the Liberals and NDP and Democrats use oil? Yes they will! Reply Richard Chase says: January 7, 2017 at 11:39 AM Statistical significance is a measure of the likely actual difference between two populations (as represented by numbers) whether you are comparing something “universal” or simply global data sets. Reply No need for a propaganda machine, says: January 5, 2017 at 12:46 AM No need for a propaganda machine as people have eyes, and most of us can read a graph. Even a fool can see an upward trend, and if things don’t turn around as Dr Spencer hopes, you will need to devise a new baseline.Oh, and forget about weather events that are cold, as these do not determine our climate…the trends and statistics as a whole do, and this can clearly be seen even by the good doctor’s graph.Statistics can be distorted, but arctic ice and glacial melt can’t. Reply Michael van der Riet says: January 5, 2017 at 4:22 PM Thank you for mentioning baseline. How would you establish baseline? The climate models have convincingly demonstrated that they are unfit for purpose. Not because the modelers are stupid, far from it, but because we know so little about climate science. I say that without CO2, temperatures today would be at least a degree higher. Prove me wrong. Reply Duh says: January 19, 2017 at 12:51 PM CO2 is a greenhouse glass. what you imply about less CO2 would be as nonsensical to say that a glass of water in which i wouldn’t have sprinkled Salt would be saltier than if i did. Reply Ceist says: January 5, 2017 at 7:34 PM RSS Press release Atmospheric temperature measured by satellites sets new record in 2016 http://images.remss.com/papers/rsstech/Jan_5_2017_news_release.pdf Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 2:10 AM Ceist…”RSS Press release….Atmospheric temperature measured by satellites sets new record in 2016″ That’s because they cooled 1998 off. You can’t trust RSS, they were formed to debunk UAH and they failed. Reply Ceist says: January 6, 2017 at 9:42 AM Carl Mears and Frank Wentz have helped Spencer and Christy ‘correct’ their errors in the past. See literature. Reply TedM says: January 6, 2017 at 3:22 PM You mean some scientists worked as a team? barry says: January 9, 2017 at 5:56 PM Scientists work in small teams all the time. But in the above case you have two teams analysing the satellite temp record. Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 7:47 AM The chart clearly shows a global warming trend, especially the 5 year average. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 7:56 AM I assume you mean the 13-month running average…but the trend is only 50% of the trend in the climate models being used to change energy policy. And even half of the very weak ocean warming trend since the 1950s might well be natural. So, “global warming” as observed doesn’t mean what most people think it means. Reply Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 8:05 AM Sorry I meant the 13 month running average. But warming is still warming, this falsifies the hypothesis of no warming put out by some. Considering no significant forcings other than greenhouse gases have been found, draw your own conclusion. I do not understand how you can comment on data from 1950 when you only have data going back to 1979. The surface temperature trend is likely to match the climate models bettter. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 8:09 AM I was referring to our published analysis of the global-deep ocean temperature changes since the mid-1950s…if you want to talk about “global warming”, that is the parameter and time period most looked to for establishing warming of the global climate system: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13143-014-0011-z Surface data have errors the satellite data don’t have, adjustments much larger than the satellite adjustments, and their global sampling is rather poor. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 8:17 AM and since I am a “lukewarmer”, I don’t ascribe to any “no warming” hypothesis. I’m not even sure what that means…it’s always warming or cooling…the question is how much of recent, rather benign warming is our fault, and what if anything can be done about it? Conflating non-zero warming with “OMG we have to do something” would be dishonest. steven mosher says: January 3, 2017 at 1:42 PM Actually the coverage is comparable even better in the time domain, the satellites structural un certainty is much higher, just compare all your versions from the first to the current to see how much your modelling assumptions drive your answer. Our adjustments are actually small during the time period, but go ahead and publish your RAW data before and after corrections for diurnal drift, orbital decay and AMSU adjustments. the fact is you have never published a raw series so that people can compare. Go ahead publish the raw data or publish your code for version 6. you wont. Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM “adjustments much larger than the satellite adjustments,” I beg to differ. Anyway, I see where this “discussion” is going. Another time. SkepticGoneWild says: January 3, 2017 at 6:40 PM Harry, No one cares. Go moan, wail, gnash your teeth, and scream “the sky is falling” elsewhere, or whatever you alarmist clowns do. The earth is better off a little warmer anyway. And the current minor warming is not unprecedented anyway. JasG says: January 3, 2017 at 7:53 PM “Actually the coverage is comparable even better in the time domain” What an outrageous untruth! Coverage is blindingly obviously inferior for the sparse land-based thermometers combined with well-known inaccurate sea data prior to 2005. For the USA (the only area of the world with decent thermometer density) all of the warming trend comes from adjustments. Whether correct or not (and since the biggest one, tobs, is pure pessimistic guesswork then that is unlikely) having all of your trend from adjustments means the data is not fit for policy. For the rest of the world the raw data is unreliable in the extreme and any adjustments could only be guesswork but should probably be more down than up thanks to well-known UHI issues at most locations; the data never having been intended for this purpose. Satellite corrections otoh are much easier because accurate calibration is possible at disparate, quality locations and tus accurate corrections can be applied to all the data at once, rather than at each thermometer adjustment being different. ie it is a scientifically accurate and unbiased process which is backed up by other satellite recons using different techniques and also by radiosondes. The land data is only backed up by itself: Regardless of how many others produce a plot it is all from the same sparse & spotty selection. Land-based data was only intended as a backup for the accurate satellite data, It is abjectly stupid or politically-motivated-reasoning to pretend they can supplant them. Where else in climate science does anyone argue that satellite data is somehow more unreliable than sparse land-based data? Answer: nowhere! Nate says: January 4, 2017 at 9:08 AM Jas. Objective observers have noted that the satellite adjustements have had much larger impacts on the trends than the surface records. For example, the most recent adjustment cut the 38y trend of the Arctic in half. Why? Because modeling and asumptions about the atmosphere are required. This track record cannot be ignored. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 8:14 PM stephen mosher…”Go ahead publish the raw data or publish your code for version 6.” Go back to your cave, you haven’t the foggiest notion of what you are saying. Publish raw data without corrections for orbital drift, etc???? Where else in science would you find such raw data? Do you see surface stations sources like NOAA publishing temp max/mins? No…they give you an average. They don’t even give you all the data these days. They slash 5000 stations from a global pool of 6500 stations and SYNTHESIZE temperatures for the 5000 in a climate model based on 1500 stations. Why do you accept that crud and whine about corrections for orbital decay? Are you going to do that yourself, or is your implication that UAH cannot be trusted? Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 8:17 PM JasG…”rather than at each thermometer adjustment being different.” As you have implied, without individual thermometer adjustments they would not be able to throw out the cooler ones while emphasizing the warmer ones. NOAA has perfected the art of obfuscating the temperature record by blatantly slashing 5000 surface stations from the global pool of 6500 then synthesizing them is a climate model. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 8:43 PM There are 7280 GHCN stations worldwide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record#/media/File:GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png That is an average of 27 thousand square miles per station, which would be a 165 X 165 mile square at the equator. What is the weather like 165 miles from where you are right now? Anything like what it is where you are? And, of course, it’s worse than this, because the stations are not uniformly distributed, being particularly dense in the US. And, they’ve been anything but uniformly cited over time. Yet, this I will say: up until the Karlization of the surface records, the surface data sets significantly agreed with the satellite records. They altered the surface data through nefarious means, and now they want to corrupt the satellite data as well or, failing that, to plant doubt regarding the satellite records’ fidelity. It’s total BS. Nate says: January 4, 2017 at 9:39 AM Bart, Bart, No I would say that the temperature anomaly (above or below average) is often quite similar 165 miles away, because weather systems are often quite large. Any errors from this will be both positive and negative and will average to near 0 when considering the whole globe. My question for you is how much of a difference to long term trends do you think comes from poor sampling? Can u estimate the size of the effect? I think you you are assuming it is much worse than it actually is. Gordon Robertson says: January 4, 2017 at 1:41 AM Bart…”There are 7280 GHCN stations worldwide…” Not all of them are used. I got the 6500 number from an old NOAA site when they were willing to admit to that. https://web.archive.org/web/20130201082455/http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/weather_stations.html Also…try this: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/gistemp/ All the NOAA and GHCN fudgings are listed and explained. Olof R says: January 4, 2017 at 3:07 AM The satellite series are much more uncertain than the surface series, claiming something else is just ridiculous.. The overall trend of the three most recent TMT-products from UAH, RSS and STAR vary from 0.08 to 0.14 C/ decade (indeed with the two latter at 0.14 C). The global surface datasets vary by far less, 0.17-0.18 C/decade. Hence, saying that the 95% confidence interval of the annual value in UAH v6 TLT is only 0.10 C, can not be true. It is maybe 0.10 if all structural uncertainty is ignored. So really, I dont think it is possible in UAH v6 TLT to tell apart 1998, 2010 and 2016 significantly.. If 0.10 C should be the typical confidence interval of satellite product, then would 2016 be significantly warmer than 1998 in UAH 5.6 TLT and RSS v4 TTT. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:03 AM Gordon Robertson says: “Wheres the proof that nitrogen and oxygen cannot independently absorb and emit energy to space” All greenhouse gases consist of molecules with three atoms or more. Only they have the vibrational and rotational states whose transitions are in the infrared. Geoff Wood says: January 4, 2017 at 12:16 PM So heated to Earth’s surface Tmax temperatures Nitrogen and Oxygen stay warm forever without GHG radiations to space? Is that what you believe David A? Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 11:30 AM Nate: The weather varies very dramatically 165 miles from where I am right now. There is snow North of me that far, and summer-like warmth 165 miles South. But, as I said, the surface data agreed with the satellite data pre-Karlization. The problem isn’t so much the data as it is the post-processing of the data. Olof R: “The satellite series are much more uncertain than the surface series…” Ridiculous. The satellite series are far more globally comprehensive, and far less altered with dubious “adjustments”. The surface sets have been virtually continuously “adjusted” to reflect the warmist bias. Prior to Karlization, the various sets were in close agreement. What changed was the surface data, and it changed dramatically, under preposterous justifications. “The global surface datasets vary by far less, 0.17-0.18 C/decade.” Real data vary. Far from being an indication of the surface sets’ worth, this is an indication that they have been manipulated to reflect a preconceived outcome. It’s a “tell”. Olof R says: January 4, 2017 at 2:55 PM Bart, you obviously don’t have a clue about all adjustments behind a satellite product, and all possible choices that have been done, sometimes completely arbitrary. And please, don’t come with silly conspiracy theories, they have no place in a serious scientific discussion. Of course data vary, but it is no good sign if different scientific teams come to widely different conclusion after analyses with the same raw data. Further, your belief in the necessity of near global coverage, is very very exaggerated. Actually, you can throw away 99.87 % of the spatial information in UAH TLT, only use 18 points worldwide, and still produce a global dataset that is nearly indistinguishable from the original. Watch this chart: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewadExwM3VOaVJBUU0 Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 3:43 PM Olof – please do not insult my intelligence in multitudinous fashion. You know nothing about me. I am well aware of the satellite sensor models and orbit dependencies. The adjustments are not arbitrary to any significant degree. Certainly not to the degree of arbitrariness associated with the notorious “bucket adjustments” to the surface records. Not even close. Again, the acid test is, all records were in agreement before the Karlization of the surface temperature record which just happened, mirabile dictu!, to extend the warming just when the models were on the verge of catastrophic failure to track reality. It’s not a “conspiracy theory” when they’re doing it right out in the open before your eyes. So please, toss the argument from incredulity (if the alarmists didn’t have logical fallacies galore, they’d have nothing at all). You may be idiot enough to believe that cock and bull story. I’m not. And, neither are a growing number of scientists and lay people who have observed the chicanery going on with the surface records. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 3:50 PM “Actually, you can throw away 99.87 % of the spatial information in UAH TLT, only use 18 points worldwide…” A carefully selected 18 points. I wonder if you have even ever heard of the Intermediate Value Theorem. You can always do this. Always. It shows nothing, because you have to know the points a priori, and you cannot know that. Look, this is very simple – more measurements are better than fewer. This is always the case. Olof R says: January 4, 2017 at 7:10 PM Bart, I said that the choices are arbitrary, not the adjustments. Have you ever heard of the Cadillac calibration choice? Goes like this: -Look, these two satellites differ by 0.2 C/ decade during the overlap. -OK, we pick the one with the lowest trend, and discard the other one “due to drifts”. Validation with independent data is obviously not needed for significant choices. However validation would suggest that the choice was completely wrong: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewaOEd5TUlTYWlMUW8 The 18 points are not carefully selected, it is the first try with a regular pattern with one point in each RATPAC region, the first level of averaging for that global dataset. If I use all 85 stations (not in a regular pattern) the global coverage validation looks like this: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewaT083ZHdiWHhieTA Why these exercises? To make sure that there is no bias involved in this validation: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewaNDVmS0t1bjZjQXM David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:57 PM Geoff, I don’t understand your question. (I don’t even understand your sentence.) N2 and O2 are not greenhouse gases. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:17 PM Bart says: “But, as I said, the surface data agreed with the satellite data pre-Karlization.” I doubt it. The 30-yr trend of NOAA global surface from 6/1985 to 5/2015, just before Karl et al’s analysis, was 0.15 C/dec. The 30-yr trend of UAH v6.0beta2 for that time period is 0.11 C/decade. Both have error bars of about 0.02 C/decade (with no autocorrelation). And you’re overlooking the huge changes UAH also made to their data around that same time: http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/04/remarkable-changes-to-uah-data.html http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/04/some-big-adjustments-to-uahs-dataset.html In fact, the Karl et al changes were only about a third of the cha David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:18 PM …Meant to conclude by saying the UAH changes were about three times larger than the Karl changes: http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/06/noaas-data-changes-actually-smaller.html Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 9:09 PM “-OK, we pick the one with the lowest trend, and discard the other one due to drifts.” What is your point? Your target is specifically UAH, but the difference between UAH and RSS is negligible, amounting to essentially a constant offset, which does not matter for diagnosing trends or any other variable behavior http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/rss/offset:-0.09 You are trying to make a big deal out of a negligible difference in order to cast aspersions. Why are you doing this? What is your objective? Why do you feel your ends justify such dishonest means? “The 18 points are not carefully selected, it is the first try with a regular pattern…” A regular (by which I assume you mean uniformly distributed) pattern is, in fact, a careful selection. The surface data are not uniformly distributed. Again, for the zillionth time, the big difference between the surface sets and the satellite sets is that the former have been manipulated, in real time, right before our eyes. Prior to 2015, there was good agreement between all the temperature sets. Now, they are divergent. What changed? Fudges put in place by NOAA, that’s what. You must know this. You must know that you are arguing in favor of manipulating data to arrive at a preconceived answer. So, I must ask again, why are you doing this? What is your objective? Why do you feel your ends justify such dishonest means? Scott says: January 4, 2017 at 11:00 PM David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:03 AM All greenhouse gases consist of molecules with three atoms or more. Only they have the vibrational and rotational states whose transitions are in the infrared. I am so tired of seeing this egregiously incorrect notion repeated. Diatomic molecules CAN absorb IR radiation. The criterion for IR activity is a change in dipole moment of the molecule. This is sophomore-level undergrad stuff. Many courses probably even teach it at the freshmen level too. I certainly learned it at the age of no more than 20. Easily shown with a quick Google search for IR spectrum of carbon monoxide. In practice, heteronuclear diatomic molecules only have a small impact on the greenhouse effect because none of these species have a long atmospheric lifetime, but this is no excuse for incorrect statements like the above. It really bothers me that I’ve seen the above stated by so many AGWer’s. It’s like there’s some sort of talking-point list that they go to in order to get their information and never actually learned the fundamentals. What bothers me even more is that I’ve never seen an anti-AGWer ever refute this poor mistake. Seems like no one actually understands the fundamentals, they just memorize a bunch of talking points. Exactly like the majority of both academics and industrial STEM people…just all work off of memorization and don’t actually understand how the world works. This ends up with people knowing “science” by reading/regurgitating conclusions rather than actually understanding the data/analysis/assumptions. I swear that the number of STEM people that actually understand things, invent new stuff, don’t just memorize, etc is on the order of 5% or less. Outside of STEM that number might even be lower… Have a nice day, -Scott Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 11:54 AM Maybe 10%, Scott. Sturgeon’s Law is very general, and applies in STEM fields as well as any other. Ceist says: January 5, 2017 at 7:42 PM Carl Mears from RSS disagrees with you about errors and adjustments “Carl Mears, senior scientist for Remote Sensing Systems, told The Associated Press in an email: “The satellite measurements do not measure the surface warming. They are measurements of the average temperature of thick layers of the atmosphere” about 50,000 feet off the ground.” http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d77eaa1018554de2b3582917c84fa620/earths-temperature-depends-where-you-put-thermometer “For impacts on human society and the environment, the surface data are more important,” Mears said. Mears said his analysis of his own satellite data has five times the margin of error of ground measurements. That’s because satellites use complex mathematical algorithms and thousands of bits of code to translate wavelength measurements into temperature readings” Also: RSS Press release and their published paper on V4 http://images.remss.com/papers/rsstech/Jan_5_2017_news_release.pdf Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:35 AM Scott…”The criterion for IR activity is a change in dipole moment of the molecule”. You are right that there’s a lot of misinformation about atoms/molecules. Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:38 AM Ceist…”Carl Mears from RSS disagrees with you about errors and adjustments” Has it ever occurred to you that the guy who runs the site may be lying through his teeth and has intentionally misquoted Mears? AMSU units measure at different frequencies and one frequency band measures oxygen near the surface. He claimed Mears stated that in an email. Yeah…sure. MarcT77 says: January 7, 2017 at 4:15 PM If different models were used to account for UHI, I wonder how much spread would be found among the different reconstructions from weather stations. Right now, satellite reconstructions consider everything that could affect measurements, therefore they have more temporal instability when better models come out. Weather station based reconstruction do not consider all the possibilities of contammination and they all use the homogenization technics, so they have a little bit more temporal stability. I wish there was at least one weather station reconstruction that would attempt to modelize how the diurnal temperature range should change with the increase in CO2 instead of using the homogenized value. Dan Pangburn says: January 3, 2017 at 3:36 PM Har – “Considering no significant forcings other than greenhouse gases have been found” is not true. See http://irjes.com/Papers/vol5-issue11/E5113145.pdf Reply Adrian Roman says: January 3, 2017 at 4:07 PM It was an appeal to ignorance. It should be either ignored or ridiculed, one should not allow switching the burden of proof like that. Anyway, a dynamical system does not need a ‘forcing’ to change. What ‘forcing’ makes a double-pendulum flip? Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 5:15 PM Exactly, Adrian. The massively coupled system driving the Earth’s climate has beaucoups mechanisms for storage and release of energy on extraordinarily long time scales. Far more than a relatively simple double pendulum. This argument from ignorance reveals only the ignorance of the people who promote it. Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 5:55 PM I stand by what I say, and I would not call the attribution evidence present in the IPCC AR5 report an “argument from ignorance”. Anyway I will let you dissenters spin your arguments as usual. Some other time. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 6:16 PM I don’t care if you stand on your head. It’s a dumb argument. If the IPCC is making it, that makes them ipso facto otnay ootay ightbray. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:47 PM Adrian Roman says: “Anyway, a dynamical system does not need a forcing to change. What forcing makes a double-pendulum flip?” Start your double pendulum (or simple pendulum) and let it run without forcings. Eventually it will come to rest. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 7:09 PM “Eventually it will come to rest.” Not if it has an external power source, like say one of these gadgets”. The Earth’s climate has an external power source. We call it the Sun. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 8:07 PM DA…”Start your double pendulum (or simple pendulum) and let it run without forcings. Eventually it will come to rest.” Yes…due to the Mother of all Forces…gravity. I still call them forces, forcings coming from differential equation theory and representing fictitious forces. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 8:54 PM “Yesdue to the Mother of all Forcesgravity.” No, not gravity. Gravity is a conservative force. The culprit is friction, a negative feedback that dissipates energy, allowing the system to descend to its lowest energy state. Such negative feedbacks are endemic to the natural order of things – energy always wants to flee through any escape hole it can find. Which is why the notion of aggregate positive feedback from CO2 has always been speculative at best, and completely unsupported by the data. But, that’s beside the point. The point here is the Earth, like any complex system in the universe, has a wide spectrum of response modes that can be continually excited by random forcing, and produce non-intuitive behavior when one does not know what they are. Under such conditions, the hubris and utter fatuousness of trying to finger the culprit for observed warming by subtracting out known forcings, and assigning whatever is left to anthropogenic impropriety is sublime in its stupidity. Geoff Wood says: January 4, 2017 at 2:12 PM Gravity produces most of the Universe’s entropy. It is the ‘Mother’ of spontaneous processes that follow. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 11:59 PM Adrian Roman “a dynamical system does not need a forcing to change. What forcing makes a double-pendulum flip?” You won’t find the term forcing used in physics. It’s a reference from forcing function as used in differential equation theory. Since differential equations are used in climate models, the modelers have dropped the function part and incorrectly tried to apply forcing as a real force in the real world. A forcing is a fictitious force that applies only to the fiction in a climate model. Gordon Robertson says: January 4, 2017 at 4:46 AM Dan Pangburn… from your paper…”The only way that energy can significantly leave earth is by thermal radiation. Only solid or liquid bodies and greenhouse gases(ghg) can absorb/emit in the wavelength range of terrestrial radiation. Non-ghg gases must transfer energy to ghg gases (or liquid or solid bodies) for this energy to be radiated”. Where’s the proof that nitrogen and oxygen cannot independently absorb and emit energy to space? Just asking. If that’s the case then neither N2 nor O2 will ever warm up or cool down other than through conduction. It is well know that both N2 and O2 both emit and absorb photons of EM. The ideal gas law states that PV = nRT. Or T = PV/nR. Therefore the gas temperature is proportional to the pressure with volume held constant or to the volume with pressure held constant. It also states that temperature is inversely proportional to the number of atoms in a volume. Therefore you can change the temperature of a gas by changing the volume, the pressure, or the number of atoms involved in a given volume. I am not making inferences from this but it’s obvious that matter as a gas can change temperature without radiation necessarily being emitted or absorbed as described for GHGs. If you have warmed N2 and O2 rising naturally to a higher altitude, as it rises it’s temperature will fall due to the lowered effect of gravity (change of pressure). Part of the reason for cooling is that there is less collisions between molecules. However, with reduced collisions how does the atom cool? It must obviously radiate away energy gained due to collisions. I am further positing that as N2 and O2 warm and rise to higher altitudes they have the capability of radiating energy to a cooler atmosphere. They may not do it at terrestrial IR frequencies but they have the ability to cool through radiation with no GHGs present or other solids or liquids. It needs to be understood that temperature and thermal energy require atoms. The less the number of atoms the lower the temperature. Therefore as you get higher in altitude and gases thin out the temperature drops. As a warmer gas at a lower altitude rises and thins it will cool naturally. N2 and O2 should cool naturally at higher altitudes by radiating away excess kinetic energy they gained from collisions at higher densities. To study that deeper, we’d have to examine at the atomic level why an atom cools. Certainly radiation of photons is one way, but why can’t N2 and O2 radiate photons? It’s not right to claim they can’t because they do. They do it at different frequencies than water vapour and CO2. Why an atom gains or loses kinetic energy, which is thermal energy is a complex problem. It involves all energy levels in an atom. I think AGW theory has simplified the problem till it has gotten stupid (see link below). There’s no reason why N2 or O2 cannot radiate energy to space at higher altitudes as well as CO2 or water vapour. If we are concerned only with terrestrial radiation then I get the point. However, 99%+ of the atmosphere is N2 and O2 and to claim they cannot absorb solar energy and emit to space seems incorrect. Atoms absorb energy based on the difference in energy between energy shells. Any EM suiting that difference will be absorbed. Other EM will be rejected. I am just posing the question. It seems to be accepted that the temperature of 99%+ of the atmosphere, made up of N2 and O2, has nothing to do with the N2 and O2, and that it can only warm and cool via GHGs. I think that’s somewhat absurd and this article poses some interesting questions. http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2010/02/the_hidden_flaw_in_greenhouse.html Nate says: January 4, 2017 at 6:03 PM Gordon. That article is full of wrong science. And it has been debunked before. His idea that gases like n2 or o2 radiate or absorb in IR range is factually incorrect. IR from the earth measured above the atmosphere clearly shows where co2 and h2o absrbs it and the rest passes through. Dan Pangburn says: January 4, 2017 at 3:35 PM Gor Gases absorb/emit at specific wavelengths. That is what makes spectroscopy work. N2 and O2 do not absorb/emit at wavelengths of significant terrestrial EMR (6-100 microns). how does the atom cool? does not have meaning. Atoms dont have temperature, they have velocity which causes temperature (molecular vibration) in walls they impact, like thermometers. Geoff Wood says: January 4, 2017 at 3:53 PM 1/2mv(mean)^2= 1/2kT per degree of freedom for a gas David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:21 PM Bart says: “Not if it has an external power source, like say one of these gadgets.” Then it has a forcing. The original point was involved a lack of forcings. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/01/global-satellites-2016-not-statistically-warmer-than-1998/#comment-232690 David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:23 PM Gordon Robertson says: “A forcing is a fictitious force that applies only to the fiction in a climate model.” Nope. In climate science, a forcing is essentially an energy input to the system, usually measured in W/m2. Changes in solar irradiance are a forcing, just as are changes in GHGs and aerosols. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 9:47 PM “Then it has a forcing.” Of course it does. But, it does not have to be a clearly identifiable forcing. It can be something that happened long ago, and the response is only now fading. It can be something very small and/or random and easily overlooked that happens to excite a resonance. Assuming that something does not exist simply because you do not know about it leads to many false conclusions, and is the reason that argumentum ad ignorantiam has been catalogued as a fundamental logical fallacy since antiquity. Gordon Robertson says: January 5, 2017 at 2:02 AM Dan…”Atoms dont have temperature, they have velocity which causes temperature (molecular vibration) in walls they impact, like thermometers”. So, in a bar of pure iron, the temperature is decided by atomic velocities???? It’s understood that no one can measure the temperature of an individual atom but in a gas the average kinetic energy of all the atoms/molecules is the temperature. If you removed all atoms from a container it would have no measurable temperature. If you wanted to be silly you could use Avogadro’s number on the estimated number of atoms to determine the average temperature of an individual atom. What I’m trying to say is this. If you know the temperature of a gas is the average kinetic energy of all atoms, then one atom must have a temperature. I don’t like the word temperature because it is a human invention based on the freezing point and boiling point of water. Temperature is a relative level of thermal energy. I prefer to think of the kinetic energy of atoms as being their thermal energy. The temperature of atoms is related to their kinetic energy and that is dependent on the energy states in which their electrons reside. When gas atoms/molecules collide it is the electrons absorbing energy that raises their KE hence their thermal energy. The only other ways an atom can absorb energy is through an electron absorbing EM and through interactions with sub-atomic particles. In a bar of pure iron, the iron atoms are bound by valence electrons and the atoms vibrate atom to atom. Some people have modeled them having springs between the atoms. When one end of the bar is heated by a torch, the transferred thermal energy is in turn transferred atom to atom via valence electrons, causing each atom to vibrate more in their covalent bonds. That vibration is heat and Clausius related the motion to work, heat and work being equivalent. Why they move and gain momentum in a gas is a mystery. However, their kinetic energies have already been determined by the distance their electrons have moved from ground state. Of course, no one really knows anything about this other than through crude experiments trying to verify the fudged math in quantum theory. I was just watching a film of a Feynman lecture. He freely admitted he knows nothing about the reality but I stayed with his math till he started getting ridiculous. I say ridiculous because he and others have had to introduce probability theory to the examination and when they do that, as Planck has admitted, the science can no longer be visualized. That’s what troubled Einstein and Schrodinger about quantum theory, that it was too far removed from observed reality. Dan Pangburn says: January 5, 2017 at 10:27 PM Gor It never dawned on me that anyone here would not know I was talking about gas molecules as having velocity. As an engineer, I never argue with what works. Kinetic theory of gases works. It says gas atoms (above absolute zero) have velocity and it is expressed as temperature and pressure of the gas. I noticed you never mention pressure. This site has a calculator that relates all this stuff: http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/kinetic/frecol.html Feynman talks about the velocity of molecules giving rise to temperature and pressure in Volume 1, Chapter 1 of his lecture series. (Google Feynman lectures on physics) provided by Caltech. It works that gas atoms gain energy and momentum from the energy and momentum of the photons they absorb (and/or contact with vibrating atoms in container walls). I suspect that the observation that gas molecules absorb photons (of appropriate wavelength) has something to do with the equivalence of mass and energy, but IMO I really dont need to know that to research the cause of climate change. I enjoyed physics and probably would have gone that way but the pragmatist in me thought I would do better as an engineer (applying physics for the benefit of man). I sometimes quote, or paraphrase Feynman and have seen some of his lectures on line. I had a great career working on, among other things, rockets, satellites (including AMSU), nuclear power, even smart artillery projectiles. Digging deeper into physics and a smidgeon of QM has been interesting. I have not yet found anything credible that refutes my findings and my assessment does a convincing job of matching observations for all the years of reasonably accurate reported average global temperature measurements. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 11:52 AM Maybe 10%, Scott. Sturgeon’s Law is very general, and applies in STEM fields as in just about any other ðŸ˜‰ Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 8:55 AM Dr. Roy, based on an observed warming to date of 0.9K, a trend rate of 0.12K per decade would lead to an aggregate warming of about 1.94K by 2100. I notice that you make no mention of whether your 50% comparison is statistically significant in its own right, and given the shortness of the period in the satellite record I suspect that it is within expected deviation from the models. We can certainly say that based on the trend rate from your own data set, the 2K target by end of century will be very close to being exceeded even given that the warming rate does not rise. Perhaps we should allow that a moment to sink in. Three, two one… That is to say, that if we were to stop adding CO2e to the atmosphere today, then the warming being produced by the gases already in the atmosphere, without adjusting for decay in the concentrations, would put us very close indeed to the RPC6.0 scenario’s outcome. That is a medium-emissions outcome, whereas stopping emissions tomorrow would be a very low emissions scenario. So it looks as if the model results are actually being exceeded to me. Reading off the graph, however (see link), the trend rate looks just about right to my eye. Can you point us to model results which show a trend rate of twice 0.12K/decade in 2016? This seems to be an important assertion and I would like to know that we are talking about the same set of predictions. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-07/scenariotempgraph_0.jpg Reply Robert Austin says: January 3, 2017 at 11:52 AM “Three, two one” How’s about waiting for the present El Nino to finish before making conclusions about trends Dr. Spenser’s data set. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 2:09 PM Seems reasonable. Would you like to tell the person making conclusions? David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:49 PM Last year’s El Nino has been over for a few months. JasG says: January 3, 2017 at 8:14 PM Better yet lets wait for the coming la nina cooling to end in a few years. So far all we have is pessimistic guesswork from people who wrongly predicted this el nino would be a flop and who previously wrongly predicted a parabolic rise in temperature rather than the current pause/slowdown (that was, in fact, predicted by many skeptics including me in 2003). Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:49 AM If there is a la Nina cooling. Sometimes it goes neutral and then returns to the previous estate. Please note: “Much-touted global warming pause never happened” http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/06/much-touted-global-warming-pause-never-happened “previously wrongly predicted a parabolic rise in temperature” Actually, if you run an exponential regression line on Dr. Roy’s data you get a slowly rising curve, exactly as one would predict. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 5:50 PM “Dr. Roy, based on an observed warming to date of 0.9K, a trend rate of 0.12K per decade would lead to an aggregate warming of about 1.94K by 2100.” You might want to check that math, given that there are only about 8.3 decades left until 2100. Reply FTOP says: January 3, 2017 at 7:03 PM Better yet, from El Nio to El Nio we have 17 years and .02. This represents peak warming in the 30+ year satellite record. Since it is warming that we are worried about, we should use these peaks to extrapolate. That is .0117 per decade so in 8.3 decades we should see .09 warming creating an anomaly of .59. Sounds catastrophic to me. /sarc Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:16 AM 0.91 + 0.0123894408 * 83 = 1.9383235864 ~= 1.94 Where problem? Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:18 AM “This represents peak warming in the 30+ year satellite record.” Of course it does. Arf. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 12:08 PM I see. So, you extrapolated a linear trend out to 2100, then compared it to a scenario in which the slope declines over time (light blue line), and pronounced them in agreement? Mmm… no. You surely aren’t referring to the gold line, as that one clearly has a slope of about 0.24 degC/decade, which is double the trend line slope over the entire data record. My advice – temperatures are currently plummeting with the end of the El Nino. Wait a year, and see if you think there is still a uniform trend. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:48 PM There is no scientific reason to linearly extrapolate 40 yr of UAH data to 2100, due to positive feedbacks expected this century. Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 7:12 PM Yes, those elusive positive feedbacks that have utterly failed to rear their heads. Sneaky little devils. JasG says: January 3, 2017 at 7:21 PM There is no justification for anything worse than linear extrapolation given that the rate of warming has been steadily reducing for 30 years while the rate of CO2 emissions has increased in the same period because a) the much vaunted but little proven positive feedbacks either are not there or were overcome by unexpected natural mechanisms. If the former then the warming will be the unalarming & beneficial no-feedback value of 1K/century, if the latter then warming prior to the 1998 shift was likely natural too. Nobody now should expect anything. With the abject failure of the climate models (which were never fit for the purpose anyway) there is no scientific case for any manmade warming whatsoever. In a less ideologically-motivated field of science the entire effort would have been defunded by now. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 7:57 PM DA…”There is no scientific reason to linearly extrapolate 40 yr of UAH data to 2100, due to positive feedbacks expected this century”. You don’t have a clue what a positive feedback is. And, you are talking around the subject which is that 2016 is not warmer than 1998 by enough to talk about. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:26 PM Bart says: “Yes, those elusive positive feedbacks that have utterly failed to rear their heads. Sneaky little devils.” The water vapor feedback is certainly real, and it’s been observed: IPCC 5AR WG1 Ch2 Figs 2.30 & 2.31 documents positive trends in water vapor in multiple datasets. “Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence,” Katharine M. Willett et al, Nature Vol 449\| 11 October 2007\| doi:10.1038/nature06207. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v449/n7163/abs/nature06207.html “Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content,” B. D. Santer et al, PNAS 2013. http://www.pnas.org/content/104/39/15248.abstract “How much more rain will global warming bring?” F.J. Wentz, Science (2007), 317, 233235. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/317/5835/233 David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:28 PM The Arctic ice-albedo feedback has been found too: “Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice,” Kristina Pistone et al, PNAS v111 n9 pp 3322-3326 (2014). http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3322.abstract Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 9:28 PM GIGO studies using models do not confirm positive water vapor feedback, David. What would confirm it would be temperatures rising relentlessly. But, they aren’t. At the current rate they are plunging, we will be back to pre-2000 levels within a few months. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 9:49 PM “What would confirm it would be temperatures rising relentlessly.” I should have said, a necessary condition to confirm it would be… Confirmation requires sufficiency as well. Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:21 AM “There is no scientific reason to linearly extrapolate 40 yr of UAH data to 2100, due to positive feedbacks expected this century.” Entirely true. If you have a better way to estimate what the current rate ought to be, go right ahead. Personally, I’d like to see what the models previously predicted for the rates measurable at the end of 2016, but the linear rate is a starting point, David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:39 PM Bart says: “GIGO studies using models do not confirm positive water vapor feedback, David.” Your excuses are pathetic. You’re a conspiracy theorist. Any result you like is fine, and any you don’t like is because scientists commit fraud or input garbage. And you think that’s convincing? It’s pathetic and it’s lazy and it demonstrates little knowledge. You aren’t the only honest person in the world, and you have no idea of the quality of data these professional scientists put into their calculations. You’re the best example of a pure denier that I’ve come across in a long time. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:14 PM It’s not a conspiracy theory when they’re doing it right in front of you. Sorry. The climate establishment already blew their credibility. You won’t get it back. Maybe you should read some Aesop’s fables for enlightenment. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:09 PM Bart says: “Its not a conspiracy theory when theyre doing it right in front of you.” Said with no evidence presented whatsoever. As always. You’re not qualified to judge the credibility of the climate establishment. (And I’m not a part of it.) David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:11 PM BTW, Bart, why are the input data used in the water vapor studies “garbage.” Specifically. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:57 PM Crickets, Bart? Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:18 PM Putting me to sleep. Straw men are boring. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 8:03 PM Eliott…”Dr. Roy, based on an observed warming to date of 0.9K, a trend rate of 0.12K per decade would lead to an aggregate warming of about 1.94K by 2100″. The 0.12C/decade trend was derived largely from a recovery from cooling prior to the 1998 El Nino. Show me a 0.12C/decade trend from 1998 – 2015. The IPCC has already admitted there was no significant trend (could have been cooling according to error margins) from 1998 – 2012. We’ve had 18 years with no significant trend, how do you plan to turn that into 0.12C/decade? Reply barry says: January 4, 2017 at 8:23 AM Use. All. The. Data. Doing that gives a statistically significant result. Using the data from 1998 to 2012 gives you no result that can be relied on. Not flat, not cooling, not warming. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 4:20 PM “Use. All. The. Data.” Wrong. Fitting a linear trend to the full set of data is imposing a model of steadily changing temperature upon the data. This is not a stationary system. It is time varying with unknown correlation times, but very likely much longer than the available data record. For instance if, as it appears, there is a strong ~60 year cyclical correlation in the system, then 30 years is the worst possible interval to choose to divine properties, because the result will be influenced in the opposite direction in the succeeding 30 year time interval. There is nothing wrong with using a shortened data set to give an indication of where things are going. You just have to be cautious about drawing conclusions. “Doing that gives a statistically significant result.” No, it doesn’t. In order to test for statistical significance, you must have a valid statistical model. Pathetic attempts at divining statistical significance typically assume an AR(1) model, with no prior justification. In fact, the data are very likely at least 2nd order correlated. Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:24 AM “The 0.12C/decade trend was derived largely from a recovery from cooling prior to the 1998 El Nino. Show me a 0.12C/decade trend from 1998 2015.” It’s the linear trend rate for the entire data set. If you use an exponential fit, for instance, you get a slightly higher rate at the end. I’d be delighted to see ANY method that can yield a fit for the whole data set that does not show unambiguous warming. Ceist says: January 6, 2017 at 9:52 AM . Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:38 AM CeistCarl Mears from RSS disagrees with you about errors and adjustments Has it ever occurred to you that the guy who runs the site may be lying through his teeth and has intentionally misquoted Mears? AMSU units measure at different frequencies and one frequency band measures oxygen near the surface. He claimed Mears stated that in an email. Yeahsure. Gordon, Carl Mears says the same thing in a video interview. Why do you automatically assume someone is lying just because you don’t like what they say? Here’s an interview with Carl Mears https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BnkI5vqr_0 barry says: January 7, 2017 at 9:08 PM Wrong. Fitting a linear trend to the full set of data is imposing a model of steadily changing temperature upon the data. Skeptics use only linear trend models for the shorter period since 1998. On that basis it does not achieve statistical significance (which is a main point in the OP on a different matter). But statistical significance is achieved with a linear model for the full period by a wide margin. What we can say with great confidence is that overall, warming has occurred over the period. We cannot say anything about temp trends since 1998. This is not a stationary system. It is time varying with unknown correlation times, but very likely much longer than the available data record. And I’m sure you’ve made this point when a skeptic emphasises the even shorter period from 1998. Right? (Answer that question honestly in your own mind. See what you come up with) There is nothing wrong with using a shortened data set to give an indication of where things are going. You just have to be cautious about drawing conclusions. Too short data sets give little indication. If the slope is near zero, for example, and the uncertainty is +/- 5, then you have no call saying anything about the trend whatsoever. The uncertainty overwhelms any indication. Doing that gives a statistically significant result. No, it doesnt. Yes, it does. In order to test for statistical significance, you must have a valid statistical model. Pathetic attempts at divining statistical significance typically assume an AR(1) model, with no prior justification. In fact, the data are very likely at least 2nd order correlated. Well ante up, my friend. Apply a good statistical model to the data and explain whether and how it indicates a trend. cb750 says: January 4, 2017 at 12:18 AM You can’t merely draw a line through data points and make an assumption about something in 100 years. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:26 AM “You cant merely draw a line through data points and make an assumption about something in 100 years.” You certainly can’t. That’s what the models are for. Hence, I would like to see what trend rate they predicted for the period covered by Dr. Roy’s data. The linear trend extrapolation simply serves to show that the current rates are about right for the simplest conceivable scenario. Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:07 PM Shame UAH5.6 won’t be out for awhile. Let’s plugin UAH6.0 for December instead to see how different the two datasets are! _UAH_5.6_ 1998 (J-D): +0.42 2016 (J-N): +0.60 _UAH_6.0_ 1998 (J-D): +0.48 2016 (J-D): +0.50 _UAH_5.6_PLUS_DEC_6.0 1998 (J-D): +0.42 2016 (J-N): +0.57 Gee I wonder what the lower stratosphere looks like… oh I guess there aren’t numbers for December there yet. _UAH_5.6_ 1998 (J-D): -0.29 2016 (J-N): -0.52 _UAH_6.0_ 1998 (J-D): -0.25 2016 (J-N): -0.53 Hmm… quite the cooling trend! Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:26 PM I wonder – hey Dr. Spencer, since you support greenhouse theory… given that total solar irradiance hasn’t appreciably changed, and that TMT & the Tropopause haven’t warned nearly enough to offset the difference: Why are 1998 TLT & TLS so unbalanced compared to 2016? Reply Greven says: January 7, 2017 at 7:47 PM Oh hey UAH 5.6 updated. v5.6 Dec 2016 is +0.14 higher than the v6.0 Dec 2016. Also, Arctic shows as +0.55 for v5.6 Dec 2016 compared with -0.00 for v6.0 Dec 2016. Which is really weird, given that the Arctic was so very warm during December and got above freezing at least in one recording. Your data methodology is flawed, Dr. Spencer. Reply cb750 says: January 4, 2017 at 12:24 AM Can I ask you Dr. Spencer have you considered the process of averaging temp data to actually detrimental to the process of understanding climate? Averages hide anomalies. 50,50,50,50 avg = 50. 110,-10,40,60 avg = 50. Which data set is an issue? I would imagine averaging the earth’s temps hides anomalies we should be concerned about. Warming won’t happen on a global scale, it will happen locally. And statistically you don’t average unrelated items. Should Britain’s temps be averaged with Argentina’s? Does that even mean anything? Reply michael blazewicz says: January 4, 2017 at 1:28 AM But doesn’t your method largely ignore ocean temperatures ? And aren’t ocean temperatures a major factor for analysing weather and climate ? 2016 was still statistically the hottest year on record by your measurements, and the trend is unmistakable. Reply Christopher Winter says: January 6, 2017 at 10:57 AM In your view, Dr. Spencer, does “ocean acidification” mean what most people think it means? Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 8:04 AM Harry, the entire period is parallel to the warming phase of the 60-70 year AMO cycle. What happens to the trend when the AMO warming is removed? Chances are it looks a lot like the cooling from 1945-1980. What’s more interesting is pretty much all the warming from the El Nino is now gone. Vanished. Why all the pushing of warming by the media in the last couple of years when it was all just weather? It would seem a bigger question is when will the pause return and if it does what does that do to your views on AGW. Reply Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 8:10 AM You ask a lot of rhetorical questions I think. Perhaps you can gather your data and post an article somewhere. “It would seem a bigger question is when will the pause return and if it does what does that do to your views on AGW.” Silly comment – my views will not change anything. And neither will yours. Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 8:22 AM The data speaks for itself. I was just curious if your opinion was driven by data. It doesn’t appear like it is. That would seem to indicate your views are religious in nature. Reply Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 5:58 PM “religious in nature.” No, I leave religion to the signatories of the Cornwall Declaration. I stick to science. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 7:55 PM Harry..”Silly comment my views will not change anything. And neither will yours.” Hopefully we are talking about data, which is right in front of you on the graph above. The IPCC declared 1998 – 2012 as a ‘warming hiatus’. If you can’t see the hiatus during that period you won’t recognize it even if the running average continues to drop and averages out the current EN warming. Many people commenting on this blog are in total denial regarding that hiatus even though their gods at the IPCC have admitted to it. NOAA, under the guidance of the Obama administration has tried to erase the hiatus retroactively using scientific misconduct. Reply Nate says: January 3, 2017 at 10:31 AM Three cheers for insignificance! Some alternative headlines with significance: Record warmest two year period: .14 higher Record warmest three year period: .12 higher Record warmest four year period: .10 higher consecutive calendar years, non-overlapping Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 7:49 PM Nate…”Record warmest two year period: .14 higher Record warmest three year period: .12 higher Record warmest four year period: .10 higher” Are you quoting the NOAA propaganda again? Reply Nate says: January 4, 2017 at 8:54 AM No, these are the records in the UAH data. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 9:12 PM Nate: +1 Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 7:47 PM Harry…”The chart clearly shows a global warming trend, especially the 5 year average.” Harry…look back to 1998 and see what became of that running average the following year, and for the next 18 years. There’s not enough data in yet to see where the running average is going. Reply Bryan says: January 3, 2017 at 7:51 AM Thermometers claiming to measure to 1/100 th of a degree? Would this anomaly be written as 0.05 ( + or -) 0.001 degree Celsius ? Reply Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 7:51 AM Don’t you think the headline is dishonest – why didn’t you say 2016 Warmest Year on Record? Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 8:00 AM because, as I said, they are basically tied, statistically. So to say 2016 is the warmest would be dishonest, since it ignores uncertainty in the measurements: a 0.02 deg. C change over 18 years cannot be reliably measured with any of our temperature monitoring systems. Reply Kevin says: January 3, 2017 at 8:12 AM Just say “2016 Likely Warmest Year on Record” which would incorporate both the fact that the measurements have 2016 ahead of ’98 but not with certainty. Reply argus says: January 3, 2017 at 9:17 AM The more I think about it, the more I find Dr Spencer’s headline appropriate. The cooling in December is a pretty big event, and with NASA and others saying for months and months that 2016 would be the hottest year on record, it turns out, statistically, it ends indistinguishable from a previous strong el nino year. His headline may leave super warmers wanting, but it’s certainly not dishonest. Reply MarkB says: January 3, 2017 at 12:15 PM Assuming you’re referring to Gavin Schmidt’s projections and are genuinely interested in being fair, he’s clearly shown analysis using the GISS LOTI surface temperature data set. John says: January 4, 2017 at 4:25 AM Although I agree they were different datasets, that to me is all the more puzzling. If you think about how the greenhouse effect is supposed to work, there isn’t a margin for the surface to warm and not the lower tropospheric temperature. All be it, both warmed in this case, but not at the same rate. If anything, the lower tropospheric temperature should show the warming prior to the surface. That leaves 3 possible conclusions. 1. The method of distinguishing the lower tropospheric temperature is wrong. 2. There is something wrong with how the surface temperature is measured (then maybe adjusted. 3. Not enough surface sites to reflect the real climate. Of course, it doesn’t even need to be just one of those, it could be all three or it could be two. I really hope scientific spending is switched from models to measurements in the near future, as measurements appear to be woefully lacking and until it is solved, the question continues. Ric Werme says: January 3, 2017 at 10:28 AM I think you could say “likely warmest” if there were only two years with any chance of being the warmest. That may be the case given how far back 2010 and the cluster headed by 2015 are. Suppose there was another year that matched 1998, then 2016 could have a 40% chance of being the warmest and each of the other two could have a 30% chance. I.e. 2016 would not likely be the warmest year, one of the other two would be. Didn’t Gavin and GISS have to backtrack on a claim that 2015 was the warmest year? Reply Ric Werme says: January 3, 2017 at 11:55 AM I replied with four links here, but they never showed. Perhaps a spam filter ate them. Here are two of them. And it was 2014 I was thinking of. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915061/Nasa-climate-scientists-said-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.htm http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/01/18/update-feds-conning-the-public-scientists-accuse-nasa-of-misleading-lying-about-hottest-year-claim/ Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 8:21 AM I have to agree with Harry here, Dr. Roy. After spending several months adding entirely spurious data points to your graphs to show how unlikely it is that a record will be set, your graph now shows that a record has been set. (You also pointed out at one juncture that just comparing the two peaks would say more about the relative sizes of two el Nino events, I might add.) Now a record has been set and you are not saying, “A record has been set,” or “I was wrong, a record has been set after all.” Instead you are using language designed to give the impression that setting a record is not actually that important after all. Technically very true. But it doesn’t look especially ingenuous. Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 8:25 AM If everything else was equal it might be useful to note a record. However, with the AMO driving far more Arctic warming it is likely not a record if that effect was removed. I wonder what data looks if you removed the Arctic? Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 8:33 AM I wonder why one would want to remove the Arctic? TheFinalNail says: January 3, 2017 at 8:43 AM “I wonder what data looks if you removed the Arctic?” Quite right, Richard M. Let’s remove the Arctic and thus reduce global warming. TFN Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 8:51 AM Eliott, the AMO is a known long term cycle. If we want to understand the real long term trend in global temperatures (and have some chance to understand the effect of CO2 increases) we must remove other factors which influence temperature over shorter periods. Maybe you don’t want to know the trend? Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 2:12 PM ” we must remove other factors which influence temperature over shorter periods” Just removing the region that is warming the fastest – and is predicted to warm fastest – seems a very poor way of doing this. Normally one would correct for the cycle and/or look for further lines of evidence. Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 10:43 AM can I remind you of what I said in the last monthly update?: “It should be pointed out that 2016 will end up being 0.03-0.04 deg. C warmer than 1998, which is probably not a statistically significant difference given the uncertainties in the satellite dataset adjustments.” But rather than my prediction that 2016 would be 0.03-0.04 C warming, it’s now only 0.02 C warmer. So, I think I’m being consistent. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:52 AM “But rather than my prediction that 2016 would be 0.03-0.04 C warming, its now only 0.02 C warmer. So, I think Im being consistent.” Does not look consistent to me, rather biased. You were hoping for no record, so you started to downplay the record before it even occured. Climatechange4realz says: January 3, 2017 at 3:55 PM He made one little mistake! So what? Our government has made numerous mistakes through the century using terms like global cooling in the 70s. Global warming in the 80s and last but not least climate change to start the 21st century simply because the climate is changing so they didn’t want to embarrass themselves for the past 19 years saying that the earth is warming when the really is none. Even if it is 0.04 degrees C warmer does they really matter. We’re talking about a number less then 0. Not just 0 but less do you realize how small that is. And it’s not like a string of record warm years were broken over the past 19 years like the MSM claims! If that were true i wouldn’t be saying this but it isn’t. 2016 just happened to be warmer then 1998 by 0.04 degrees not one thousand degrees but 0.04 degrees. Face it your man made climate change agenda is going down the drain! Sods mother says: January 3, 2017 at 8:59 PM Sod, did you remember to take your meds today honey? Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 2:33 PM “So, I think Im being consistent.” Well, perhaps. We generally find ourselves to be consistent. I think by the time the November datum appeared it was pretty obvious that a sufficient drop was not likely to appear to prevent a record being set, so this appears to be hedging your bets after the fact, but I could be being unfair. But as I also said a few months ago, I always find the obsession with calendar years a bit odd anyway. I wouldn’t make so much of them, myself. As a matter of interest, just how large would the increment have to be to become statistically significant for that period in that dataset anyway? I suspect, and may try to calculate tomorrow if I am feeling sufficiently compost mentis, that it would represent a trend rate higher than we could possibly have cause to expect. You said yourself that the peak-to-peak interval tells us more about the size of the el Nino events than about the underlying trend. It is basically only two data points, closer together than the IPCC’s definitional period of 30 years for “climate”. As the trend rate over 18 years would yield an underlying increment of about 0.2K, and given that the trend rate comes from the very same data set, I would surmise that the observed increment of 0.02K is also not statistically significantly different to the expected increment of 0.2K. Which would translate into English as meaning that this small record does not falsify the existence of the trend. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 6:00 PM “But as I also said a few months ago, I always find the obsession with calendar years a bit odd anyway.” Given that temperatures have plunged exceedingly rapidly in the past few months, and this is likely to continue, I am curious if you really mean this. The handwriting is pretty much on the wall. So, while you quibble here and now, you must surely know that any minor victory you might score is going to be totally wiped away in the very near future. Are you hoping and praying that the nosedive will abate, and you will be able to claim vindication? Surely, you realize the tenuousness of your perch? Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:29 AM “Given that temperatures have plunged exceedingly rapidly in the past few months” They always do immediately after a strong el Nino. The overall trend rate is rising. As usual. A few months don’t count for much of anything. At the very least you need a multi-year trend, and much below 30 years is meaningless for purposes of plotting climate. Hence the low statistical significance. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 12:34 PM The overall trend rate is rising, as it has been for over 100 years, long before CO2 could have been an issue. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 12:36 PM For some reason, a filter is not allowing my longer, more explanatory, comment to go through. Bottom line is, there is nothing new or alarming going on. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:53 PM Roy, the two years aren’t “basically tied.” Or “tied.” One is warmer than the other. T(2016) +/- 0.10 C is warmer than T(1998) +/- 0.10. I think you’re spinning this hard in order to get the headlines you want. Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:11 PM What you mean he didn’t do that between v5.6 and v6.0? Reply barry says: January 9, 2017 at 6:06 PM I see comments like this from ‘skeptics’ all the time. Claiming mendacity with no evidence whatsoever. But this time it’s from the other side of the fence, and just as deplorable. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 8:57 AM We will see how future cooling we be handed. “insignificanrt cooling trend”. So has anyone tested how many of the “record colds” that were mentioned in a recent post were in fact ties? http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/12/first-week-of-2017-record-cold-48-states-going-below-freezing/ Or are ties only interesting when they fit opinions? Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 6:02 PM Why should there be any ties, if the Earth is being relentlessly overheated by CO2? Reply Bryan says: January 3, 2017 at 7:55 AM correction 0.05 ( + or -) 0.001 degree Celsius ? should be 0.050 ( + or -) 0.01 degree Celsius ? Reply Emeritus says: January 3, 2017 at 7:56 AM Dr. Spencer, what is the difference between 1998 and 2016 with v5.6? Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 7:57 AM Haven’t calculated it yet. Reply Olof R says: January 4, 2017 at 3:32 AM It will be way larger than 0.10 C, actually closer to 0.2, with other words significant… Reply Emeritus says: January 4, 2017 at 7:26 PM That was my assumption as well. Large portions of this blog and comments is about if 0,02 is significant or not. Dr. Spencer has been forthright regarding that the headline in this blog is a spin. The “warmest year on record” can make a false impression. And I think we all can agree that this matter is of some consequence . I find it quiet astonishing that these decisions is made solely by a couple of men without the insight Steven Mosher is asking for another place on this blogpost, and that even before the v6.0 paper is published. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:11 PM But, with very significantly less breadth. Reply Climatechange4realz says: January 3, 2017 at 8:05 AM Oh how the tables have turned. Lmao Reply argus says: January 3, 2017 at 8:24 AM I believe in the theory of global warming, but were I a bigger proponent, I would feel my position hurt substantially comparing ’98 to ’16, that a strong el nino almost 20 years later is indecipherable. I would feel the “pause” as having gained a lot of traction. Of course the next year or two will tell. Reply Climatechange4realz says: January 3, 2017 at 3:28 PM There go the puny minded warmest bickering over a teeny tiny 0.02C degree warmer then 1998. turning something so little into to something SO CATOSTROPHIC!! Reply Lewis says: January 3, 2017 at 7:04 PM Cato strophic? This then is the type picking we see here. Dr. Spencer is kind enough to host this blog. He offers observations and opinions. Others, whom we shall not rename, pick on him for his observations. How cute. His opinions do not toe a particular line, he, belonging to the lukewarmer church of CO2, is chastised nay, persecuted, for being a non-believer in the true religion. In all, I find much of the bickering petty. Of 5th to 8th grade level. The facts are simply. Dr. Spencer’s opinions are also simple, as are many who come here, but not all. The earth gets warmer and colder, we are not sure of all the imputs. But, if you are a AGW CO2 true believer, any minor chance to denigrate those who don’t believe is required. Bah. Grow up. We can’t control the weather. Warmer is better than colder. Hopefully, CO2 will help the planet avoid the depths of another ice age. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 8:06 AM What took you so long? 3rd of January already? A few too many caipirinhas at the fireworks display? Happy New Year, Dr. Roy. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 8:10 AM I take holidays off, believe it or not. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 8:22 AM Unspeakable temerity! Reply Bryan says: January 3, 2017 at 8:10 AM 01 2016 +0.50 02 1998 +0.48 Difference = 0.02 ( + or -) 0.01 degree Celsius ? Thats just the reading error on a digital meter(plus or minus the last unit claimed) What about all the other errors or noise? Reply OleKlemsdal says: January 3, 2017 at 8:14 AM Thank you again for interesting data! When comparing 1998 and 2016 I find it interesting that the anomaly averages the first quarters (jan, feb, mar) were 0,53 and 0,70 respectively, while the average anomaly the last 9 months were 0,46 and 0,44. Hence, despite a strong la Nina in the autumn of 1998, the last 3 quarters of 1998 were marginally warmer than 2016. Is this due to differences between the Nino episodes, and where does that lead us in to a likely year anomaly for 2017? Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 8:56 AM The loss of ice in the Arctic has a much more significant effect on global temperatures in the winter. This AMO driven ice loss is most likely the entire reason for 2016 being close to 1998. If the effects of the AMO are removed it is likely 1998 would be by far the warmer than 2016 and 1998 was even transitioning over to La Nina the last couple of months. Reply OleKlemsdal says: January 3, 2017 at 9:55 AM Yes, AMO quite likely plays a role here. The bottom line, I guess, is that natural factors appear increasingly important and CO2-mediated warming less dramatic than most of the worlds politicians have been convinced to believe. Reply FTOP says: January 3, 2017 at 8:21 AM It is interesting how a report can be described by many different headlines. This post could be titled accurately in numerous ways depending on author bias. Realist & Statistition, aka, Dr. Spencer “2016 Not Statistically warmer than 1998” Warmist “2016 Likely Breaks Record in Satellite Era,” Null Hypothesist “2016 ends with Lowest warmth Recoded in last 20 Months” At the end of the day, it appears global temperatures are stubbornly stable and trend towards a mean. Remove volcanic cooling and Nino events which have nothing to do with “Mann” and you have a system that regulates itself quite well. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 11:00 AM yes, that’s true. It’s an indication of how we can state something in simple terms which is technically true, but the reader then infers something of greater significance from it. For example, the statement, “global warming is real”. Which I agree with. But what I mean by it is probably quite different from what most readers of that statement infer from it. I decided on the wording for the current post as a counterpoint to the inevitable headlines like “OMG 2016-Warmest-On-Record-We’re-All-Gonna-Die!” Reply J says: January 3, 2017 at 11:42 AM Thank you for being so sane, Roy. And Happy New Year. Reply barry says: January 9, 2017 at 6:16 PM I decided on the wording for the current post as a counterpoint to the inevitable headlines like OMG 2016-Warmest-On-Record-Were-All-Gonna-Die! Hyperbole or oracular? The surface records are likely to have a statistically significant record warm year, so let’s hunt those headlines down. “2016 ‘hottest on record’ in new sign of global warming, Copernicus organisation says” (Oz ABC) “Hottest Year Ever? 2016 Burns Through Heat Records, NASA Says” (Live Science) ‘A new sign’ is pretty temperate (pun intended). ‘Burns through heat records’ is a little breathless. “2016 Edges 1998 as Warmest Year on Record” (Science Daily) “Scientists Say 2016 Is Hottest Year Ever Recorded” (EcoWatch) A dearth of alarmism in the headlines so far. But the official results haven’t been released, so maybe the press is saving it up for a week or two. Reply barry says: January 9, 2017 at 6:17 PM Wait, I found one! “Earth ‘On the Edge’ as Disastrous 2016 Goes Down as Hottest Year on Record” (Common Dreams) Well done, Dr Spencer, for providing balance against the raging onslaught of headlines. Reply Tim Wells says: January 3, 2017 at 8:39 AM We probably have a 10% effect on the temperature of the world, while nature has a 90% dominating effect. We have no plan for a significantly cooling world, which will result in a lower crop production. Reply FTOP says: January 3, 2017 at 11:29 AM We probably have 0% effect on the temperature of the world. We have a meadurable effect on localized temperatures due to urbanization which changes the latent heat capacity of a localized area. The sun represents 99.85% of all mass in the solar system. http://solarviews.com/eng/solarsys.htm The ocean represents 70% of the earth’s surface and according to the global warmists 91-93% of the measured warming we should be afraid of is happening in the ocean. Anyone who thinks we can burn a fossil fuel in Wichita and warm an ocean is delusional. It is that big orange ball in the sky warming the ocean and the ocean releasing that energy (El Nino) or not (La Nina). https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/08/26/climate-models-fail-global-ocean-heat-content-based-on-toa-energy-imbalance/ All the rest is just noise. Reply Climatechange4realz says: January 3, 2017 at 3:30 PM We do have a tiny bit of an affect. No doubt about that. But the alarmist turn it into an affect that’s so catostrophic it’s going to kill us all! Reply Olof R says: January 4, 2017 at 3:45 AM If we continue to release 10 Gt C per year in the atmosphere for another 1000 years, we would be able to recreate the Permian-Triassic extinction event. That would be exiting… Reply FTOP says: January 4, 2017 at 7:32 AM If continued cooling reduces ocean out gassing, we could see CO2 levels below 300 ppm. We are at much greater risk of an ELE from low CO2 (.04%) than marginal increases. Sods mother says: January 4, 2017 at 11:47 AM “If we continue to release 10 Gt C per year in the atmosphere for another 1000 years, we would be able to recreate the Permian-Triassic extinction event. That would be exiting” Yes, except, we will be way out of fossil fuels way before then! The predicted life of natural gas and oil is another 50 years while coal is another 100 years yet coal only makes up 25% of all our fossil fuels. But yes I agree with what your saying. If fossil fuels somehow do continue it could become a problem thousands of years down the road. ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 11:48 AM Previous post above ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 11:49 AM I apologize for the confusion. ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 11:55 AM Either way the climate will continue to change even if co2 emissions were still increasing from man made fossil fuels thousands of years from now except the ice ages will be milder and the warming periods will be hotter. Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:53 AM “If continued cooling reduces ocean out gassing” “Continued?” Do you perhaps not realise that most of current sea-level rise is due to thermal expansion? “Yes, except, we will be way out of fossil fuels way before then!” Perhaps not out of cement or soil. Fossil-fuel emissions are less then these two combined. ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 10:04 AM Fossil fuels. Does that name mean ANYTHING to you? They are FOSSIL fuels for a reason. Do your homework. Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:57 AM “No doubt about that. But the alarmist turn it into an affect thats so catostrophic its going to kill us all!” 150,000 per annum so far, according to the WHO. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7066/full/nature04188.html Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 11:39 AM Lol. That doesn’t matter. Co2 makes up only 0.04 % of the atmosphere and makes up only 5% of the total greenhouse affect. Even one hundred thousand million tons won’t do shit. In fact co2 is a plant fertilizer. If we choose to eliminate total co2 emissions we I’ll be dangerously close to killing all the plants on the planet . It benefits us much better then destroys us. Simple elementary school science. sod says: January 3, 2017 at 8:47 AM “Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998” Most misleading headline ever. Posted on a blog that lately had a topic named: “Science Under President Trump: End the Bias in Government-Funded Research” But hey, nothing that a few adjustments can not fix? Next version will have 1998 warmer again, promise? Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 8:52 AM The world is discussing fake news and then we get this from one of the most respected scientist on the sceptic side. I am really dissapointed. What would that 3rd order polynomial do these days? https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/02/uah-global-temperature-anomaly-still-below-the-zero-line/ Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 9:00 AM Sounds like you are in denial and moving slowly into anger. Why does anyone care about the headline. The real issue is the data. The data now clearly shows no warming over the past couple of decades. What should really concern you is we now are seeing the maximum effect of the AMO cycle. It should be warmer than 1998 and yet it isn’t. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 10:18 AM “What should really concern you is we now are seeing the maximum effect of the AMO cycle. It should be warmer than 1998 and yet it isnt.” it is warmer. Look at the numbers. Only if you do not weant it to be warmer, you start using the “statistical tie” nonsense. Your kids didn t grow last year. It a statistical tie with the number you got last month! Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 10:20 AM Obviously, you are not a scientist or you would understand what measurement error means. Why are you at a science site denying basic statistics? Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 11:14 AM oh, and your child growing analogy? If you don’t realize what’s wrong with it, I can’t help you. (Hint: All children grow with time, not shrink. But not all temperatures trend upwards.) Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:37 AM “(Hint: All children grow with time, not shrink. But not all temperatures trend upwards.)” This is wrong. Everybody shrinks every day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pawmi-StB94 And we have to include measuring errors, of course. You are also confusing stuff that we are going to measure (is the kid still growing) with some baseless claim (not all kids grow). David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:56 PM Richard, Roy wrote this headline knowing full well it would lead many forums — like Brietbart, the Daily Caller, etc — to report it the way he spun it. Reply spalding craft says: January 4, 2017 at 3:02 PM Gimme a break. You really think Roy cares what Breitbart and Daily Caller report? Roy is not a politician or a propagandizer. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 11:12 AM “Most misleading headline ever”? Really? actually, in so few words, my headline is very accurate, and not misleading at all, sod. It makes a very important point…which probably would apply to the thermometer measurements as well….but good luck getting those guys to admit it. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:42 AM “actually, in so few words, my headline is very accurate, and not misleading at all, sod. It makes a very important pointwhich probably would apply to the thermometer measurements as well.but good luck getting those guys to admit it.” It is not accurate, unless you also start calling cold records (you made a post about those lately) “tie”. It is a trick to make the record less relevant. You would not have called the record “significantly strong” if it had been above the “tie” threshold. Reply SPQR says: January 3, 2017 at 8:48 AM From 1979 to the present, there is an upward trend on the graph. The graph does not begin in 1998. So what if 2016 was a record year? I think both sides (liberal and conservative) tinker with the data (liberals probably far more). However, even if there is slight warming (which it appears) I am not going to cease using my air-conditioner in the summer; Nor am I going to stop driving my car or cutting my lawn. Get over it people- Reply Wim Rost says: January 3, 2017 at 9:08 AM 2016 +0.50 1998 +0.48 Not really a sign of a dangerous warming… Reply Bryan says: January 3, 2017 at 9:20 AM The planet has been getting warmer naturally since around 1600AD Fossil fuel use became significant from 1840AD onwards A trend line following this period can be established and then projected to the present to account for natural variation. This would establish a baseline to compare the accelerating trend that the IPCC claim is due to CO2 increase. So for a sceptic a natural rise is to be expected. For an IPCC advocate an accelerating rise is essential But for the period 1998 till 2016 virtually no rise of any kind is observed. Surely the penny has dropped for any reasonable person. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:44 AM Bryan says: “The planet has been getting warmer naturally since around 1600AD” No it hasn’t: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:T_comp_61-90.pdf Reply Bryan says: January 3, 2017 at 1:02 PM There is an absurd attempt to deny the Central England temperature record. Several adjustments have been made to the data set and it is not at all clear if the original values can be found. However the historical record has the Thames freezing regularly. Water freezing gives a record set that does not rely on a thermometer and hence gives very strong evidence of very cold conditions around the 17th century. You might say that central England does not represent the World. However it would be odd if this long period of very cold weather was some kind of outlier. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_England_temperature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Thames_frost_fairs Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:59 PM Bryan says: “There is an absurd attempt to deny the Central England temperature record.” Is that a joke? You cannot judge the world’s temperature by a few cubic centimeters of air in one single, tiny, location on Earth. Talk about absurd. Reply Bryan says: January 4, 2017 at 2:56 AM Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville said; “Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie Christy is correct the margin of error is 5 times bigger than the signal. You cannot claim more accuracy than your margin of error. This would be clear in any science discipline other than climate pseudoscience. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:53 PM From UAH’s press release, titled “2016 Edges 1998 as Warmest Year on Record”: “Globally, 2016 edged out 1998 by +0.02 C to become the warmest year in the 38-year satellite temperature record, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville.” http://www.newswise.com/articles/2016-edges-1998-as-warmest-year-on-record Mike Maguire says: January 3, 2017 at 5:43 PM David, What happened to the Medieval Warm Period on your temperature graph? You must have Michael Mannitis (-: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/03/documenting-the-global-extent-of-the-medieval-warm-period/ According to your graph, global temperatures were in a downtrend for 800 years and surely we must have just rescued life from the next Ice Age(or at least the great adversity created by continuing global cooling) with the warming since 1900. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 7:03 PM Mike, what Medieval Warm Period? from the abstract of the PAGES 2k study: “There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age” — “Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia,” PAGES 2k Consortium, Nature Geosciences, April 21, 2013 http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n5/abs/ngeo1797.html Reply Lewis says: January 3, 2017 at 7:20 PM https://www.britannica.com/science/medieval-warm-period David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:49 PM Lewis, I’ll take a large, recent scientific study over an old, creeky encylopedia. Any day. Mike Maguire says: January 4, 2017 at 7:10 AM “Mike, what Meideval Warm Period?” The one that exists in climate history, human recorded history and the fIrst IPCC report but was wiped out in the 2001 IPCC report, along with Mann’s tree rings studies and hockey stick climate history graph. But if we believe this silly rewrite(hijacking) of historical temperatures and man made global warming has interrupted the 800 year downtrend in temperatures then………humans have reescued the planet from global cooling! Since the last 4 decades of weather and climate have been the best for life on this planet since the Medieval Warm Period…….or by your definition, since the last period in climate history when temperatures were this warm…….you tell us when that was,…..lets let the observations on this greening planet get some weighting vs busted computer simulations in models programmed with equations that have been deemed infallible. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:04 PM Mike, show us data for your purported global MWP. BTW, the hockey stick has appeared prominently in all IPCC ARs. Mike Maguire says: January 5, 2017 at 12:05 PM Mike, show us data for your purported global MWP.” David, I showed you a link with numerous studies…….you responded to it but must not have looked at the link. Here is more to help you out: Medieval Warm Period Project: http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/mwpp.php Project overview: http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/description.php Temperature differentials……majority(100) show Medieval Warm Period Warmer than Current Warm Period: http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/qualitative.php Scientists whose work is sited(over 100) http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/scientists.php Mike Maguire says: January 5, 2017 at 12:27 PM David, I showed you over 100 studies that point to a Medieval Warm Period, that was as warm or warmer than the Current Warm Period. Will you just ignore all these studies and believe a handful of the ones that confirm what you believe? You don’t have to show me them. I know and have seen them. Science is not just latching on to the data that confirms what you want to believe. At the very least, any objective and rightfully skeptical scientist would have to acknowledge that many hundreds of scientists found strong evidence of the Medieval Warm Period. Why is it so hard for you to acknowledge this? I acknowledge that we have had around 1 Deg C of warming over the last century and humans have caused some of it. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:48 PM Mike Maguire says: “I showed you over 100 studies that point to a Medieval Warm Period” No you didn’t, you linked to a list of 100 scientists who purported did such studies. Is there a list of the studies? CO2 is well known to hide their funding sources. They have no scientific credibility. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:50 PM Mike, there is no list of 100 studies — only a graph where one column goes to 100. What are the actual studies? Mike Maguire says: January 10, 2017 at 4:06 AM David, You have the links and studies with the evidence. Pretending that there is nothigng there shows that you are just being a. Troll……..not interested in a 2 way discussion or exchange of authentic ideas…..just interested in disrupting. Bryan says: January 5, 2017 at 8:58 AM David Appell You might be interested in this graph http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Screenshot-2016-04-08-at-05.24.44-AM-down.png Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:43 PM A graph from 1975??? Seriously?? Paleoclimatology has improved by leaps and bounds since then, both in the amount and types of data collected, and in the mathematical techniques used to analyze them. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:44 PM I meant “climatology,” not “paleoclimatology.” Bryan - oz4caster says: January 3, 2017 at 9:22 AM Interesting there was such a large drop from November to December. The CFSR GMST estimates from UM CCI and WxBELL also dropped, but not quite as much. I graphed them here: https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/global-temperature-december-2016-preliminary/ It’s also interesting that all the various estimates have diverged considerably since June, with the spread increasing from about 0.2C to 0.4C. Just goes to show some of the uncertainty involved in trying to estimate a global temperature anomaly. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:33 AM What’s the probability that 2016 was the warmest year? Reply Mike Maguire says: January 3, 2017 at 6:02 PM The importance of the verbiage in describing the global temperature in 2016 is telling. In science, .02 deg C is not significant in the realm that is being measured. In politics and marketing, being able to use “warmest ever” or “hottest ever” is a huge deal compared to not being able to use those terms. So let’s go ahead and say that the last 2 years were the MF-ing hottest years ever, since humans have been able to measure temperatures. What happened in 2015 and 2016? 1. Record crop yields and world food production 2. Planet was the record greenest since satellites have been able to measure this 3. Record low number of violent tornadoes(that peaked in the 1970’s) 4. Record longest streak for US to not have a major hurricane make landfall. 5. Global drought continues to decrease slightly 6. Sea levels went up a bit more than 1/10th of an inch But let’s forget all of that and focus on: 7. Heavy rain events saw a slight uptick 8. Arctic sea ice dropped to the 2nd lowest ever. So however verbiage you want to use to describe 2016 as warmer than any other years, it and the last 4 decades have featured the best weather, climate and CO2 levels for life on this planet for the last 1,000 years. If that isn’t true, please let us know about all the bad things that have happened because of this slight beneficial warming……..err, I mean record smashing hottest years ever. Reply Mike Maguire says: January 3, 2017 at 6:05 PM “So however verbiage you want to use to describe 2016” So whatever verbiage you want to use to describe 2016 Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:48 PM Mike, a study published in BAMS looked for human-caused issues in 2015: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/scientists-strong-evidence-human-caused-climate-change-intensified-2015-heat-waves Among them are 10 extreme heat waves that killed thousands of people, an intense wildfire season in Alaska, extreme drought southwestern Canada and in southeast China, and sunny day flooding in Florida in September The study is at: http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/2015_bams_eee_low_res.pdf Reply Nate says: January 4, 2017 at 11:56 AM Mike, Perhaps warmer is better where you live, ok. But how bout the rest of the world? Most of the developing world is plenty warm enough. Extreme heat is not welcome there. In California the extended drought has not been the best weather they’ve ever had. In the Himalayas, the many glaciers (the 3rd pole) are counted on to feed rivers in spring that irrigate vast areas in China and India. These are in recession which is accelerating, trending toward a future of inadequate springtime water for ~ 500 million. No-one is saying 3.4 mm of sea level rise in 1 year is a lot, but the rate is accelerating and summed over 50 or 100 years it becomes significant for people living in coastal cities. Reply Mike Maguire says: January 5, 2017 at 3:33 PM “In California the extended drought has not been the best weather theyve ever had.” Global drought has not increased, the planet is greening up. You will always be able to find areas of drought and extreme weather. They have and will always exist naturally. Droughts in California have lasted for many decades not that long ago. There is no correlation between that drought and the increase in CO2. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/14/science/californias-history-of-drought-repeats.html It’s interesting that we are about to have a huge precip event in California. In the next week, much of the northern and central parts of the state will see over 6 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of triple that. Snow will be measured in yards at the higher elevations. Reservoirs that are near record lows will be getting some needed water. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1483650690 So is this extreme precip from human caused climate change? No! As an operational meteorologist for 34 years, I can tell you that a portion of their precip has always come from events like this. “California Extreme Precipitation Symposium” http://cepsym.org/proceedings.php The difference between believing that weather/climate is unprecedented because you read about it and knowing that it is/was not is often a matter of doing a bit of homework and having an open mind. There are hundreds of sources that show recent extreme weather is very tame by historical standards……as we would expect when the planet warms more at the highest latitudes and decreases the meridional temp gradient. The atmosphere does not need to work as hard to balance the heat differential. The last 4 decades have featured the best weather, climate, growing and living conditions for life on this planet since the Medieval Warm Period, 1,000 years ago. You don’t even need to do your homework to verify the Medieval Warm Period, just look at the 100+ studies from my previous post. Enjoy the data and enjoy this climate regime……even though some places will always be having extreme/bad weather. Reply Mike Maguire says: January 5, 2017 at 3:46 PM Nate, I am not completely blind or one sided on this issue. Arctic sea ice is near record low levels and yes, sea levels are increasing. “IF” this were to accelerate it would be a problem for the humans that decided to build along the coasts that assumed that climate would never change. With regards to the Arctic, polars bears are doing great and their numbers have increased greatly in the last 4 decades, mainly because we aren’t killing them like before. The polar bear has been used as a cuddly mascot for a marketing scheme to capture people’s brains by using propaganda……..vs scientific facts and authentic biology. When entities have to lie about things like this(current polar bear metric) then it means that the truth won’t support their position/cause. Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 4:24 PM Mike, The supposed good weather of the MWP is a Euro-centric view of history, and the goodness of it. You are repeating that (centricity) You didnt address glacier melt or the the developing world. And nobody here is talking about polar bears. Mike Maguire says: January 5, 2017 at 5:17 PM “The supposed good weather of the MWP is a Euro-centric view of history, and the goodness of it. You are repeating that (centricity)” Not true. This is just what you have read and heard. Please look at all the data and studies that I provided. “You didnt address glacier melt.” OK, glaciers are melting too, along with Arctic ice. Is that all you have? Doesn’t negate one iota of the statement that the last 4 decades have featured the best weather, climate, growing and living conditions for life on this planet since the Medieval Warm Period, 1,000 years ago. And for those of you that deny there was a Medieval Warm Period, then since the last time it was this warm……..which, in your book is a very long time ago. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:41 PM What data and studies did you provide? David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:42 AM If a new record has to be 0.10 C warmer than the old record, then the only statistically significant “warmest years” in the UAH LT record are 1980 and 1998. This despite almost +0.5 C of warming over the entire record. So, yeah, the headline pretty kinda sounds like the best spin available for people who don’t want to admit warming. Reply appell'sajerk says: January 3, 2017 at 9:48 AM I thought fat people were supposed to be jolly… Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 10:24 AM “If a new record has to be 0.10 C warmer than the old record, then the only statistically significant warmest years in the UAH LT record are 1980 and 1998.” yeah. basically we can eliminate records by just making it difficult enough to score one. So we eliminated the surface data (not reliable) and concentrate on satellite data (small number of years). Then we occasionally change parameters, and lose satellites/sensors. The effect: We are sorry, but there is no (significant) warming any longer, no matter how much it warms. Reply Tim Folkerts says: January 3, 2017 at 11:23 AM Yes, it seems like a more fair way to say it would be something like: “2016 Probably The Warmest Year in Satellite Records By our best estimates, 2016 was the warmest year in the satellite record. Due to the uncertainties of the measurements, it is possible that 1998 was actually warmer, but odds are that 2016 is indeed the warmest. “ Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 6:08 PM No, that is not fair at all, because the probability is miniscule. If you flip a coin 100 times, and get 51 heads, it is not fair to say that the coin is biased towards heads. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 7:05 PM How do you know the probability is “miniscule” until you calculate it? Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 7:15 PM Are you serious? It’s 0.02 deg, fella’. ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 12:21 PM I apologize Bart but David here has a counting problem. He doesn’t know how to count because he’s never learned it in kindergarten and his homeschool teacher must have forgot to teach him it. You gotta give the guy some slack! Lewis says: January 3, 2017 at 7:23 PM Bart, you will notice that .02 degrees is only noticeable to mechanical thermometers, not beings. Without the thermometers, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. A discussion I must repeat, about control of people’s lives using climate change for an excuse. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:43 PM Bart, it’s 0.02 C, but it’s 0.4 standard deviations. That’s not so small. I calculate that the probability that 2016 was warmer than 1998 is 66%. See my work below: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/01/global-satellites-2016-not-statistically-warmer-than-1998/#comment-232788 Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 10:05 PM Your calculation is garbage. See below. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 10:21 PM I think my calculation is fine. Especially compared to your’s. ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 10:01 AM Oh I get it! So you think my coculation is fine compared to yours! So mines better then yours! I see what your saying now! Way to embarrass yourself! ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 10:02 AM Keep digging your self further and further down that rabbit hole! Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 11:32 AM What you think, and what is real, are clearly very different things. Take your “calculation” into any statistics department. Be ready for the blood to surge to your face as gales of laughter roll over you. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:03 PM Bart, more nothing. You don’t even TRY to explain why the calculation is wrong, or the rigorous way you think it should be done — you just spew out insults. That’s trivially easy. You got nothin’. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:18 PM Another physicist commenting on my blog found the probablility that UAH LT 2016 was warmer than 1998 to be 63%. https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=28837843&postID=6603432198050712290&page=1&token=1483726485223 But he, like everyone else here, is unsure about what margin of error to use, since Roy hasn’t been clear about it. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:51 PM Another mediocrity self-identifies. Congratulations on rooting them out, Dave. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:40 PM Bart, all insults, no math. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:10 PM I utterly destroyed your argument down below. Please catch up. Bryan says: January 4, 2017 at 3:43 AM Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville said; Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie” Christy is correct. You cannot claim more accuracy than your margin of error. This would be clear in any science other than the climate pseudoscience. If I handed in a lab report at university with a margin of error of a tenth of a degree yet claimed an accuracy to one hundredth a degree I would get an embarrassing fail Reply barry says: January 9, 2017 at 6:25 PM Quite right, Bryan. For example a trend of 0.005 (+/- 0.18) Has a margin of error 36 times greater than the supposed trend. You’d think that this would prevent people claiming anything about a trend in such data. But it’s global temperature data, and it runs from 1998 to December 2015. So certain quarters ignore the statistical uncertainty for that trend. The same people who are suddenly very interested in statistical uncertainty on this topic. Reply Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 12:26 PM Good point David. Reply fonzarelli says: January 3, 2017 at 9:44 AM WHO WINS THE RACE FOR WARMEST YEAR? As far as the race for warmest year goes, 1998 (+0.424 deg. C) barely edged out 2010 (+0.411 deg. C), but the difference (0.01 deg. C) is nowhere near statistically significant. So feel free to use or misuse those statistics to your hearts content. RWS January 3rd, 2011 Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:15 PM Lord knows it’s been done in the title of this post. Reply Lubos Motl says: January 3, 2017 at 10:17 AM Only 540 out of 703 pairs of the years in the 38-year interval, or 77%, agree with the claim that “a later year is warmer than the previous year”. In this sense, the increasing trend only exists at the 77% confidence level, slightly above 1 sigma. For more observations like that, click at my name. Reply Tim Folkerts says: January 3, 2017 at 11:13 AM That has to be about the most inane use of statistics I have ever seen! Randomly, you would expect half of the pairs to go up and half to go down. Using the binomial distribution, the odds are of getting 352 or more pairs going up are 0.5 (ie 50%) The odd of getting at least: * 355 –> 0.41 * 360 –> 0.27 * 380 –> 0.017 * 400 –> 0.00014 * 540 –> 0.00000000000000000000000000000000 (Excel can’t actually produce enough precision to calculate this number!) So what you are REALLY showing is that we can be VERY sure that there is more warming than cooling. There is about 99% confidence that warming occurs 77% +/- 4% of the time. (Ie if warming was occurring less 73% or more than 81%, then getting 540 out of 703 going up would be highly unlikely). The odds of 540 out of 703 being random (50%) are incalculably small. For more observations like that … yeah, I think I’ll pass. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:48 AM This is the most absurd look at statistics that i have ever seen. and if we put the threshold for a record at “beating the last record by +5C”, we won t see any record over the next century. Reply ren says: January 3, 2017 at 11:06 AM For several years now there is a clear shift of the polar vortex in the direction of Europe and it is a clear trend. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00855/ifuzwmefexm9.png Reply ren says: January 3, 2017 at 11:10 AM http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00855/cycgzbayvx7z.png Reply ren says: January 3, 2017 at 11:50 AM This is very important for circulation to the northern hemisphere. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00855/6v8x2pi2kf3v.gif Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 5:54 AM Ionizing radiation shows the actual air circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00855/hmqy5goh7n3k.png Reply E. Swanson says: January 3, 2017 at 11:22 AM Dr. Spencer, while it’s always interesting to see the latest UAH results, I think it’s important to realize that the meteorological year begins on 1 December. Your latest results should thus be the first installment for 2017. While we’re at it, the coldest time of the year for the US lower 48 is around the middle of January, so the projected cold and snow of your previous post isn’t unusual. And, how ’bout those tornadoes in the Southeast yesterday, were they NORMAL? Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 11:32 AM The numbers we post are departures from seasonal (actually, monthly) normals, so things like meteorological winter and when the coldest time of year occurs are not relevant. And, no, Gulf coast severe weather isn’t unusual this time of year. Reply E. Swanson says: January 3, 2017 at 11:45 AM The division of the year’s days into months is a rather arbitrary choice and the beginning of the calendar year on 1 January has no geophysical meaning. Why not just give seasonal averages with Winter beginning on 1 December, etc., which would better match the influence of the annual solar cycle? Oh, sorry, I suppose you probably are more interested in keeping your faithful followers happy with your monthly releases of your corrected MSU2/AMSU5 series. Reply Lewis says: January 3, 2017 at 7:28 PM Dear M. Swanson, Yes, months are arbitrary, but, in case you hadn’t noticed, in common use. Your idea reminds me of those whose last names start with letters far into the alphabet. They often advocate changing the order of the alphabet to let them be first occasionally. PC at it’s finest. Reply Slipstick says: January 3, 2017 at 11:33 AM The lack of statistical significance is an artifact of the calendar. For example, if we look at two year periods: 97-98 (or 98-99) +0.25 15-16 +0.38 Three year periods: 96-98 +0.15 14-16 +0.31 Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 11:44 AM True. I’m only addressing the claims of “warmest year on record” here. One can always change the averaging intervals to come to qualitatively different conclusions. When it comes to “global warming”, the most important single statistic in my opinion is the linear trend, which is still only 0.12 C/decade. Maybe in each monthly update I should have the headline: “Warming Rate Still Only 0.12 C/decade” But that would get a little boring. So, we talk about statistics people are used to hearing, like “2016 worst year ever for…” Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:54 PM I wonder if 2016 was 0.02 C colder than 1998, if you’d be saying it was statistically tied for warmest year…. Reply fonzarelli says: January 5, 2017 at 2:36 AM He did back when the 2010 data was out and ’98 edged it by .013: “…but the difference (0.01 deg. C) is nowhere near statistically significant.” RWS 1/3/2011 Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:46 AM “The lack of statistical significance is an artifact of the calendar. For example, if we look at two year periods: 97-98 (or 98-99) +0.25 15-16 +0.38 Three year periods: 96-98 +0.15 14-16 +0.31” do not dare to bring facts into this debate! The “fake news crowd” has decided that any temperature record is irrelevant because it can be cast into statistical doubt unless earth transforms into a burning ball from one second into the next (and then the debate wont matter any longer). And do not even dare to question, whether the medieval warming period was really warm or just a tie with a phase 10000 years ago! Reply Paul says: January 3, 2017 at 11:55 AM Dr. Spencer. Please give them the headline they want. They aren’t interested in the data anyway. If they were, they wouldn’t attribute 0.1 deg to El Nino and claim 2016 as the hottest year ever, when temperatures are plummeting since 9 months. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:57 AM ” If they were, they wouldnt attribute 0.1 deg to El Nino and claim 2016 as the hottest year ever, when temperatures are plummeting since 9 months.” This is what happens, when scientists support nonsense. Here is, how “sceptics2 turn your headlines. They think that cooling after el nino is significant, while high temperature records are not. You are supporting the fake news crowd and help them spread misinformation! Sad. Reply Paul says: January 3, 2017 at 12:05 PM @Sod Cooling since El Nino spike actually is 0.6 deg in monthly data. Difference between 1998 and 2016 is 0.02 deg. Up to you to decide where the significance is. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 1:47 PM “Cooling since El Nino spike actually is 0.6 deg in monthly data. Difference between 1998 and 2016 is 0.02 deg. Up to you to decide where the significance is.” The term “significance” has a statistical meaning. It involves making decisions, but not the way you assume. In general, we would check if trends are statistically significant. Th upward trend over the full data obviously is. Whether the drop over the last few month is, i do not know. It doesn t look very different from other drops. Reply Paul says: January 3, 2017 at 12:08 PM But feel free to create your own message from the data. Hottest year in record and be it. After doing it ask yorself with the monthly data in front of you: So what? Reply Kevin White says: January 3, 2017 at 12:20 PM As I predicted, 2016 finished statistically tied with 1998. So the pause continues, alarmists will not like this! The demise of El Nino’s lingering influence combined with a strengthening La Nina and declining solar cycle will mean a much cooler 2017. It’s a little something called regression towards the mean. Note to alarmists, strong El Nino years are always warm, 2016 in that respect was nothing out of the ordinary. Get over it there is no statistically significant AGW. Reply Tim Folkerts says: January 3, 2017 at 1:14 PM 1) A “pause” is not defined by individual years. It should be determined by trendlines. So analyze slopes, not individual years. 2) Why do you call this a “strong El Nino”? The typical El Nino. This is unlike the 1998 El Nino, which from from near zero and then dropped back to near zero. So an apparently weak El Nino still produced a record! 3) This is not really a good example of regression toward the mean (which would be caused by random variations, not a pattern like El Nino evolving into La Nina). If nothing else, the regression should be toward “typical” values, which in this case would most logically be the 0.12 C/decade upward sloping trendline. Reply Paul says: January 3, 2017 at 1:46 PM Why do you call it a weak El Nino? Any data that supports that assumption? The 1998 El Nino needed approx. 20 months to vanish. We still have 10 to 12 months to compare both. Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 2:20 PM The strongest El Nino in recorded history is a weak El Nino???? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml ENSO index peak for 2015/2016 is 2.2 (and, yes, started from zero and dropped to zero, like it always happens) The next ones are 1997/1998 and 1982/1983 at 2.1 Ideology, just like religion, does make people blind… Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 2:21 PM Oops … sorry, the peak for 2015/2016 was even 2.3 not 2.2 Reply Tim Folkerts says: January 3, 2017 at 4:25 PM My comment about strength was based on the effect of the El nino on temperature –the extra warming from the El Nino “spike” above the existing baseline. This was indeed fairly small. I was thinking akin to a spring tide. Even a small wave atop a spring high tide will be higher than a good-sized wave atop a high neap tide. Similarly, one could describe El Nino strength from how warm the surface gets. A relatively small peak atop a high background could be considered “large” from an absolute perspective, but not so large from a relative perceptive. So I looked a little further, focusing on the Multivariate ENOS Index (MEI) (mostly since it seemed a good overall estimate of El Nino/La Nina and since I found the data set easily). This index has a slope when you do a linear fit, increasing about 0.0125/year since 1950. This is perhaps not surprising since overall ocean temperatures have increased over that time. This means that — relative to this linear trendline — MEI values near the end would be be adjusted downward about -0.4 and those near the beginning adjusted upward about 0.4 to give “account” for the trend. In this sense, the most recent El Nino is only moderately strong. This leaves us with a couple competing interpretations. One would be that an unusual series of strong El Ninos have pushed global temperatures up (and there is no ‘baseline upward trend’ from other causes). The other would be that the recent El Ninos are mostly “typical” but get a boost from global warming and a higher baseline SST. Unfortunately, I would suspect it would take a number of years to sort out which answer is better (eg multi-decadal oscillations could look like a multi-decadal upward upward trend). Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 8:04 AM Sven, the 1997/98 El Nino also peaked at 2.3 K. That El Nino and the most recent one have had about the same strength. Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:19 PM How strange that two months of 1997/1998 were 2.3, while you say it was only 2.1… clearly you cannot read. Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:20 PM Or, perhaps I should just quote your ironic self-description: “Ideology, just like religion, does make people blind” Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:38 PM Yes, my bad. I first planned to write only about 1998 and 2016. Then changed to the whole El Nino periods of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. That created the confusion. Working on an iphone contributed as well. You are correct that the 1997/1998 peak was also 2.3. So the Tim Folkerts’ weak El Nino was not “the strongest El Nino in recorded history but “tied with 1997/1998 as the strongest El Nino in recorded history”. And apparently even that fact, combined with the fact that it was not followed by a strong La Nina, still failed to produce a record. Now, is that correct? Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 9:05 PM And as to the “ironic self-description” – touch… In fact I regretted writing it as soon as I pressed “Submit comment”. It’s not a nice or wise thing to say and never adds anything to a discussion. One should stick to facts and avoid unnecessary snark. Will try to stick to facts. My appologies. Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 9:10 PM Seems that the site does not accept french letters – touch… should end with e with accent aigu. Definition – “used as an acknowledgment during a discussion of a good or clever point made at one’s expense by another person.” Kristian says: January 4, 2017 at 12:50 AM Sven says, January 3, 2017 at 2:20 PM: The strongest El Nino in recorded history is a weak El Nino???? Well, it certainly wasn’t a weak one. It was definitely a strong one. However, it’s still pretty clear it was rather dwarfed by the 1997/98 event. Here’s a comparison between the three biggest El Nino events over the past 40 years, the 1982/83 event, the 1997/98 event, and the 2015/16 event. First the “Equatorial Upper-Ocean Heat Content” of the Pacific basin (130E-80W) (according to CPC): https://okulaer.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/eq-ohc-b1.png Then the 4 month average SSTa (including the months with the highest anomaly around the peak of each event) of the tropical Pacific basin (10N-15S, 145E-75W): (1982/83) https://okulaer.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/g20161209_0557_21808_1.png (1997/98) https://okulaer.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/g20161209_0558_26296_1.png (2015/16) https://okulaer.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/g20161209_0559_27363_1.png Note the black rectangle. That’s the NINO3.4 region. You will also note that the anomaly scale and range (NOAA (Reynolds) OIv2) is exactly the same in all three cases. Inside the NINO3.4 rectangle, the overall SSTa of the 2015/16 event is actually as high or even slightly higher than that of the 1997/98 event, believe it or not. But when you look at the full picture, there is absolutely no question the latter event was the stronger one. By far … Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 2:41 PM And the 1998 El Nino turned right into a strong La Nina, what the 2016 El Nino did not, though it looked like it would at first. That fact probably did not have an insignificant role in making 2016 into such a warm year. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf So, again, it depends how you formulate your point. I would do it like that – even though the 2016 El Nino was significantly stronger than 1998 and did not turn into a strong La Nina, like in 1998, 2016 still ties with 1998… Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 3:00 PM Sorry to post so many times in a row, but Tim Folkerts’ comment does not cease to amaze me. “So an apparently weak El Nino still produced a record!” No – apparently even the strongest El Nino in recorded history failed to produce a record! Reply Paul says: January 3, 2017 at 3:04 PM Thank you Sven. Your explanation seems more rational than the flawed one with a weak El Nino. Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:22 PM It’s only rational if you don’t look at the link he posted, which contradicts him. Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:40 PM It is still rational Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 9:33 PM Good on you for owning up to it. Mike M. says: January 3, 2017 at 2:28 PM Elliot Bignell wrote: “Perhaps we should allow that a moment to sink in.” I noticed that result some time ago myself and it has definitely sunk in. Looks like there is nothing much to worry about. A continued linear increase in temperature corresponds to a continued exponential increase in CO2. That would lead to a forcing between 5.0 and 5.5 W/m^2 in 2100. I would say that is a reasonable business-as-usual scenario; that is, what might happen without any large innovations in energy technology. Given that CO2 emission growth already seems to be slowing, it looks like 2.0 K of warming is pretty much a worst case scenario. And 2.0 K is nothing much to worry about. Elliot Bignell wrote: “That is to say, that if we were to stop adding CO2e to the atmosphere today, then the warming being produced by the gases already in the atmosphere, without adjusting for decay in the concentrations, would put us very close indeed to the RPC6.0 scenarios outcome.” Someone ought to explain to Mr. Bignall how the Greenhouse effect works and what the 6.0 on “RCP6.0” means. I don’t have the patience. Reply Mike M. says: January 3, 2017 at 2:31 PM Hmm. This got disconnected from the message that I meant to reply to ( Elliott Bignell, January 3, 2017 at 8:55 AM). Lets see if I have fixed that problem. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:47 AM “… In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2 C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates.” http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n10/full/ngeo2248.html “A continued linear increase in temperature corresponds to a continued exponential increase in CO2. That would lead to a forcing between 5.0 and 5.5 W/m^2 in 2100.” The RPC 4.5 scenario projects almost exactly 2K over Y2K temperatures – see the graph. That amounts to about 2.8K over pre-industrial levels. You have just said that we are looking at an RPC 5.0 to RPC 5.5 scenario – i.e. that we are going to actually exceed RPC 4.5. I’d be worried, if I were you. “I dont have the patience.” Or the brains. Reply Mike M. says: January 5, 2017 at 11:31 AM Elliott Bignell, You are spouting nonsense. Present forcing is about 2.3 W/m^2. To get 2.0 K warming from an additional 2.2 W/m^2 would require a TCR of 3.4 K and an ECS of somewhere around 7.4 K. Way beyond even the IPCC range. Using an observationally justified TCR of about 1.3 K gives about 0.8 K additional warming for that forcing. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:35 PM Positive feedbacks. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 6, 2017 at 4:54 AM Just read off the graphs. They are entirely clear. The 6.0 scenario ends a little more than 2K over y2K temperatures, making for a little over 2.8K of total warming. The 4.5 scenario ends so close to 2K over Y2K levels as to be almost unreadable, making for very close to 2.8K. You’ve admitted that we are looking at a 5.0 to 5.5 scenario. Not that hard, surely? Reply Mike M. says: January 6, 2017 at 10:14 AM Elliott Bignell, Oh! There is a graph somewhere! So it must be true! I have no idea what graph you are referring to. But, as I argued above, it is clear that the graph must be making unreasonable assumptions. Of course, you don’t care about that. Dan Pangburn says: January 3, 2017 at 4:03 PM Solar activity (quantified by SSN) is a proxy for average global temperature change on earth. Assessment of solar activity should include the influence of duration as well as magnitude of solar cycles. Also a threshold must exist for sunspot numbers; above the threshold warming occurs and below it cooling occurs. This is accomplished using the time-integral of sunspot number anomalies (measured minus threshold). When combined with an approximation of the effect of ocean cycles and the contribution to warming of increasing water vapor, the result is a 98% match to 5-yr smoothed measurements 1895-2015. http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com Reply AaronS says: January 3, 2017 at 4:18 PM I dont have IPCC model prediction data to calculate the mean (it would be a great thing to share bc it is difficult to download). I am curious where does 2016 rank in: Highest ranking years for climate model error and exaggerated warming compared to measured data? A plot through time of measured temperature minus predicted temperature is the thing i feel that general population need. Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 5:14 PM Now that is a really innovative definition of the strength of El Nino! Must be your own invention. I’ve followed the “debate” for around 10 years now and I certainly have not seen this before. Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 5:16 PM It was supposed to be a reply to Tim Folkerts, I have no idea why it landed here Reply fonzarelli says: January 3, 2017 at 7:09 PM Sven, my guess is that you’re using a mobile device (?) Comments have to be posted using the desk top version or they oft end up at the bottom of the page. Note that Tim’s comment lacks a reply button with the desk top version, but has a (false) reply button with the mobile version. If you have trouble getting the desk top version on your mobile device, let me know and i’ll walk you through how to do it… Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 7:37 PM Thanks fonzarelli, Yes, yhat was the problem. Turned it to desktop Reply Entropic man says: January 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM If the December GISS temperature comes in 0.21C cooler than November, down from 0.95C to 0.74C, the GISS Land-Ocean temperature for 2016 would be 0.98C. We will know definately when their data comes out in three weeks time. GISS for 1998 was 0.63C. The warming to 2016 would be a statistically significant 0.35C. Are the two sides going to spend the next year arguing over which of the six main temperature datasets show significant warming and which do not, and what that means for the climate? Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 6:21 PM GISS is not a credible data set. You will not make any points with knowledgeable people using it. Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:23 PM So UAH is credible when there are VERY LARGE variations between v5.6 and v6.0? _UAH_5.6_ 1998 (J-D): +0.42 2016 (J-N): +0.60 _UAH_6.0_ 1998 (J-D): +0.48 2016 (J-D): +0.50 Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 9:01 PM Meh. Barely discernible in the plot: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah5/plot/uah6 These differences are not “very large”. As a fraction of the peak values for these El Nino years, they are VERY SMALL. Nothing like this: http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/NASA-2000Vs2016.gif Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 9:30 PM You should also look at other bits of the UAH data – especially the Arctic in 2016 from UAH v5.6 to 6.0: 0.9 degree difference in October. What is the data source for that GIF? GIS is not doing much. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 9:56 PM Gimme a break, will ya’? I’ve been keeping tabs on this long enough to know that the surface data sets agreed with the satellite sets very well up until they manipulated the bucket data to add spurious new warming. It’s a blatant and transparent fudge to keep the warming meme going in the face of an uncooperative real climate. Now, your side wants to cast aspersions on the satellite data to complete the con. Go sell it to the numbskulls who lap up your bilge. I’m not buying. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 11:12 PM Carl Mears, Senior Research Scientist, Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) “A similar, but stronger case can be made using surface temperature datasets, which I consider to be more reliable than satellite datasets.” http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperatures Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 11:33 AM Yes, Mears serves at the sufferance of the climate mafia. He knows which side his bread is buttered on. Greven says: January 4, 2017 at 4:36 PM Bart, How strange. Why are you unwilling to link where that NASA-2000Vs2016.gif came from – from what data source does it originate? Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 5:35 PM I wasn’t aware that I was obligated to do your web searches for you. But, here are the data: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/history/output/met_used.zip David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:43 PM Bart says: “Yes, Mears serves at the sufferance of the climate mafia. He knows which side his bread is buttered on.” You always have an excuse, don’t you Bart. If you can’t provide the data and science wrong, you just use insults and imply someone is crooked, all without any proof or analysis whatsoever. When you have to resort to garbage like that, your claims aren’t at all convincing. It shows no thinking whatsoever. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 8:39 PM Where’s the excuse? An excuse is “a plea offered in extenuation of a fault“. I am admitting no fault. I am pointing out that Dr. Mears heads a private research company dependent on contracts from NASA’s Earth Sciences arm, and has a keen self interest in pleasing his customers. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 9:09 PM Bart, I take that to mean you manipulate data at your job, due to a keen self interest in pleasing your customers, and so you assume everyone else does it too. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 9:32 PM Yeah, unfortunately David, if I did that, people would die, and my customers wouldn’t be pleased for very long. I expect it’s nice to be in a field, like climate science, where there are no consequences for being wrong most of the time. Greven says: January 4, 2017 at 10:15 PM Bart, Thanks for showing where you got the info. A web search for that was insufficient to find it, sorry. However, I think that GIF is a bit misleading. Here’s what the image looks like just pasting the frames on top of each other: http://www.evilgreven.net/images/nasaadjustments.png The longer beginning and shorter end seem to distort things. Looking at them side-by-side you see it’s pretty close; the maximum adjustment happens near the beginning, ~0.2 degrees Celsius. The much more certain modern era has far less adjustment at/below ~0.1 degrees; no more than UAH versions have been adjusted. You plotting that graph in WoodForTrees doesn’t show how different they really are: http://environmentalforest.blogspot.com/2015/05/first-look-uah-60-vs-uah-56-vs-rss.html You can clearly tell the 0.1 degree Celsius difference (nearing 0.2 for 2016!)between UAH v6.0 and v5.6 in my data above and that’s straight from this site. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:19 PM So you’re the only honest man in the world, huh Bart? No one else can be honest but you. You can insult the integrity of others, based on no data whatsoever, but you’re above it all, just becausey you say so. That must be a weighty crown to bear. Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 9:01 AM Bart. Thats a nice way to obscure the issues. Both sets have changes of about .1 C. But the satellite data has lots more noise and is not smoothed as nasa data is. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 11:38 AM Greven – All data are uncertain, and within the realm of uncertainty, there is leeway for various interpretations. What I see happening is that adjustments to the satellite record go both ways, while adjustments to the surface record are overwhelmingly in one direction. David – I do not know if it is dishonesty, or incompetence, or both driving the panic mongering. But, I know that there is no emergency, and I know that the proposed cures are worse than the purported disease. Nate – Smoothness of the data is not a general indicator of quality. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:33 PM Bart says: “David I do not know if it is dishonesty, or incompetence, or both driving the panic mongering. But, I know that there is no emergency, and I know that the proposed cures are worse than the purported disease.” You don’t know anything, because you never look at data or do any analysis. Intuition is not science. That’s what makes science so useful. And insults aren’t a counterargument. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:01 PM Way to contradict yourself within the space of a couple of sentences there, Dave. barry says: January 5, 2017 at 4:37 PM Bart, What I see happening is that adjustments to the satellite record go both ways, while adjustments to the surface record are overwhelmingly in one direction. The single biggest adjustment to the surface data sets has been to cool the centennial record, by adjusting upwards sea surface temps in the past – making the slope shallower. http://tinyurl.com/gtrllh4 JasG says: January 3, 2017 at 8:34 PM Until they reconcile the terrestrial recons with the more accurate satellite recons then they are all worthless. The fact that they all use the same data means that 6, 20 or 100,000 recons would still not validate each other. The fact that Giss was quick to adopt the NOAA pause-buster adjustments where accurate sea temperatures were replaced by extrapolations from bucket measurements tell us all we need to know about them. That unscientific politically-motivated bodge will, I expect, be reverted after proper scrutiny under the Trump administration and Noaa will flop back down to match the satellites/radiosondes once again. However even then it will still be running hot because the atmosphere should really be warming more than the surface according to the man-made warming hypothesis….but then the Antarctic should also be warming….and the stratosphere should be cooling…..and the pause should not be happening. Giss will still of course remain the pessimistic outlier due to the fact that it unscientifically extrapolates across the Arctic (otherwise known as just making it up). Meantime most of the (global) warming in Giss (outside the 100% invented Arctic data) seems to be happening in Siberia in Winter; so not of even local concern, never kind global. Giss climate models are just as inaccurate, being the worst performer spatially and temporally compared with all other models. In any privately funded endeavor such resolute incompetence would be rewarded by the sack. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 8:24 AM Results differ very little whether you use GHCN, or a well-spread subset, whether you use or rural or sea surface records, whether you use different records to GHCN, no matter what methods you use, or if you are a skeptic who actually decides that they will construct your own temp record from raw data, and endeavour to use the best methods you can think of (3 different skeptic groups have done this). There are numerous global (and US) surface temp records made by AGW skeptics and others. They are not much different from each other. Critics complain automatically. Useful people crunch the numbers, running their own tests. Those that have done this, stop complaining. Check out their work. For example, https://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/03/24/thermal-hammer/ Reply Greven says: January 5, 2017 at 6:47 PM Satellites are not ‘more accurate.’ They have more coverage, but they do not directly measure temperature. Temperature is inferred based on theory; interpreted and modeled from microwave sounders. Reply Francis says: January 3, 2017 at 7:01 PM I am not a scientist but only a humble lawyer. However, it seems to me from having looked at this subject for many hours online that the likelihood that there is man made global warming going on is incredibly small. I think that I now know enough about the key points in debate to make comment in them. What is being discussed is, at the moment, something much less than 2 C having started with an average which could have itself been +/- a good part of that anyway pending what average you take. I cannot accept that the historic toempritue record, mostly having come from ‘proxy’ measurements, could be accurate by more than +/- something like 10 C. I know that science is very good and is constantly getting better these days but I don’t believe anyone who thinks that they can tell me what the global temperature is today without the use of a satellite, much less someone who can tell me what it was half way through the 18th century. Neither can I believe that accurate adjustments can be made to allow for what kind of buckets were used to measure temperature using who knows how accurate a thermometer on so many different ships all those years ago. In my view the satellite measurements are the only thing that we have which has much chance at all of providing the information that we need to decide this issue. The earth could get quite a lot warmer over the next few years and that would still not ‘prove’ the issue either way. I don’t think that anyone would be wise to try to forecast what the temperature will actually do for any short to medium period of years at any stage (ask the ‘warmers’). However, now that we have been through 2016 it seems to me that the ‘warmers’ have now had their shock headlines, probably, for a long time to come.If 2017 is warmer still I may well go and join the ‘warmers’ but I don’t think that it will be. Dr Spencer, for my part I do think that your headline could have been a little closer to ‘2016 just pips it at the post’ or something like that. In the future you may be glad that the high point was so high, all lower temperatures in years to come will be comparatively lower because of it. I think that the key question for the warmers now is ‘how much cooling over how long would it take to convince you that man has no significant effect?’ and then ‘how much lack of warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has no significant effect?’ Or ‘how many C drop would convince you?’ If those questions were answered we would at least have a target, mind you I don’t expect my life will be long enough to see it! Dr Spencer keep up the good work, the world needs more like you and Illegitimi non carborundum. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 11:10 PM Francis wrote: “I think that the key question for the warmers now is how much cooling over how long would it take to convince you that man has no significant effect?” Francis, how much more warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has a significant effect? Reply Francis says: January 4, 2017 at 5:18 AM David, good question. Looking at the satellite record it seems to me there are a number of points worthy of note. First, the lowest low on the 13 month average (assuming that I am reading off the graph correctly) was October 1984 @ -0.51 and the highest high was May 2016 @ +0.5. That is a difference of 1.1 over the 37 year record. That seems to me to be very little change for that period. Second, the higher temperatures (on the 13 month average) are followed each time by a number of years where the temperatures drop back down. That recovery is then countered by a higher high. Between 1998 and 2016 the temperatures were settling back down before they went up to the 2016 peak. That is 18 years, with a significant peak in 2010, before getting back up to (and slightly over) the 1998 figure. I don’t see that that can in any way show a trend of warming overall. Third, I get that you can’t take a single year in isolation or even a 2 year average but as you step to three years, five years or ten years you are asking for a much bigger step each time to be able to claim a warming trend. If we were to see a significant lack of the cooling in future years between peaks then that would support a warming argument. Or if we saw a peak larger than 1998 and 2016 in much less than 18 years then that would support warming. However, if we saw any lows, as low as 1992 or 1985 or lower, then they would stand against the warming argument. Fourth, if the problem is CO2 then the fact that it has been increasing consistently over the whole period should mean that the temperature should increase consistently, at least, over any period of a decade or more. Therefore I would say that it would need a high on the 13 month average of more than 0.55 within the next 18 years without a low below -0.31 within that period for it to be likely that man’s CO2 is making it happen. What are the warmers’ answers? Reply Entropic man says: January 4, 2017 at 6:37 AM Francis I was asked this on another blog. The most recent GISS 5-year average centred on 2013 is 0.79C+/-0.1C. A stastically significant cooling would be 0.2C. Show me a future GISS 5-year average below 0.59C and I would accept that global warming has stopped. Reply Francis says: January 4, 2017 at 5:52 PM Thank you for your reply, it would be good a few more would respond. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:15 AM Francis says: “First, the lowest low on the 13 month average (assuming that I am reading off the graph correctly) was October 1984 @ -0.51 and the highest high was May 2016 @ +0.5. That is a difference of 1.1 over the 37 year record. That seems to me to be very little change for that period.” Compared to what? When the Earth left its last ice age to when warming peaked, the average rate of warming was only +0.005 C/decade. So today’s rate of LT warming is about 25 times higher. Reply Francis says: January 4, 2017 at 5:57 PM And when the earth left the last ice age what were the rolling 13 month averages and the highest and lowest of them in each 37 year period?. The trouble with historic data is that it simply cannot be accurate, at best it is approximate. There may be some degree of certainty as to the overall averages over long periods but we do not have the satellite record. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:40 PM Francis: Our current rate of warming is about 30 times faster than when the last ice age was ending. From Shakun et al Nature 2012 Figure 2a: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html global temperature anomaly in year -18,000 is -3.4 C global temperature anomaly in year -11,000 is +0.0 C so the average temperature change is 3.4 C in 7000 years, or ~ +0.005 C/decade, compared to NOAA’s current 30-year trend of +0.17 C/decade So that’s a factor of 30 now compared to then. fonzarelli says: January 5, 2017 at 2:47 AM Francis, don’t bother tangling with appell. (he’s the biggest liar in the blogosphere…) He well knows that we had an equvilent amount of warming a century ago, but he’s never going to tell you that. In fact he’ll probably use his sock puppet “John” to refute early twentieth century warming as he has done in the past… David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:22 AM Francis wrote: “That is 18 years, with a significant peak in 2010, before getting back up to (and slightly over) the 1998 figure. I dont see that that can in any way show a trend of warming overall.” Francis, you’re doing numerology, not math. You can’t calculate the change in the data just by looking at two data points, peak-to-peak. Those two peaks just don’t accurately represent the data. “Fourth, if the problem is CO2 then the fact that it has been increasing consistently over the whole period should mean that the temperature should increase consistently, at least, over any period of a decade or more.” No no no no no no no. Natural variations still exist in a warming world. — So again: how much more warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has a significant effect? Reply Francis says: January 4, 2017 at 6:31 PM I was not trying to do math. I accept that to a great degree what the figures provide is statistical and can be looked at in that way. I further accept that I know so close to nothing about statistical analysis as makes no difference. If all of the scientists and mathematicians and statisticians knew how the climate and the numbers worked then they could model it but they don’t even come close. So, it seems, they are as good at it as I am. David wrote: “You cant calculate the change in the data just by looking at two data points, peak-to-peak. Those two peaks just dont accurately represent the data.” We (by which I mean everyone on earth) don’t know what the data tells us, assuming that it could tell us anything if we understood it better. Whatever the important influences are CO2, the sun, the air, the land, the sea, the volcanos or any number of other factors the truth is that ‘we’ don’t know. But, if the planet is warming then the high points and the low points should get higher with time, that is just logic. In the satellite record the low points have been pulled up over the 37 year period but none of them from a standing start. If I boil a kettle and then let it cool it will take just as long to boil again if I leave it to get as cool as it was. But if I start it boiling again very soon after it boiled the first time it will do it so much quicker than the last time. The math is irrelevant. High highs will be followed by higher lows until it cools down again. The question is will we get higher highs before the lows have recovered. David wrote: “No no no no no no no. Natural variations still exist in a warming world.” And we (the same we as above) don’t know what those natural variations are or what their data is over any period. If the warmers knew that ‘the pause’ was caused by some particular variant then they would have measured the data and told us but they have not. Just because you don’t know what causes something it is no good just saying that it must be CO2. You need to be able to demonstrate what it is if you expect people to suffer and die for it. So many times in history what seemed to be very difficult and complicated questions proved in the end to have very simple answers, this could be one of those times. And in answer to your question; it would take higher lows and higher highs in the satellite record. The higher they are the sooner I could be convinced but if a volcano interferes then I would still need higher temperatures. Other than that I stand by my previous answer. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:36 PM Francis, Again, more numerology and hand-waving, when what’s called for is analysis. “And we (the same we as above) dont know what those natural variations are or what their data is over any period.” We do know some, but it doesn’t matter, they exist and they mean temperature isn’t going to increase monotonically with CO2. This is so obvious it’s dumb to even argue about it. “So many times in history what seemed to be very difficult and complicated questions proved in the end to have very simple answers, this could be one of those times.” This is the end — the increase in temperature is due to man’s emissions of greenhouse gases. As is ocean acidification. I recognize you are desperate to have something else — anything else — be causing the warming. But the science clearly shows AGW, and it was known in the 1800s that this would happen. — So again: how much more warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has a significant effect? fonzarelli says: January 5, 2017 at 3:07 AM The ipcc claims that as little as half of recent warming may be caused by agw. If we’re generous and assign 0.3 C as half of recent warming, then 0.5 C (since LIA) would be natural. And that’s if the ipcc’s unproven assertion is actually correct. The science doesn’t “clearly show” anything… Francis says: January 5, 2017 at 3:29 AM David We seem to agree that there are many factors which affect the global temperature. The difference is that you say that CO2 is increasing temperature in a more than minor way, I say that there is no proof of that, there is too much noise. Therefore I say that the temperature has not gone up any more than it would have done if man were not on the planet. If your starting point is that temperature has gone up more than it would have done then you have to look for what caused that. If your starting point is that there has not been such an increase then there is nothing to look for. We know that the planet can go into and out of ice ages but you say that it should now stop going up and down, why? David wrote: “the increase in temperature is due to mans emissions of greenhouse gases. As is ocean acidification.” Prove it! If you can do that then we don’t even need temperature records or increases we would know it to be a fact, but you can’t and we don’t. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:44 AM Francis, the proof is in many papers publishe over the years, summarized in modern textbooks. Have you read any climate science textbooks, Francis? Or, for free, you could read the IPCC 5AR WG1. But a textbook would be clearer. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:46 AM Francis, if not anthropogenic GHGs, what natural factor(s) are causing modern warming? How much more warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has a significant effect? Francis says: January 5, 2017 at 11:22 AM David Maybe you and I differ over the meaning of phrases such as ‘prove it’ and words such as ‘proof’. I would not have set you the challenge if there was any chance that such proof exists, it does not. If it did then this website would not exist and there would be no dispute. Given time I could give you a long list of well qualified scientists who do or have worked in appropriate fields that disagree with what you call ‘proof’ (I don’t however propose to do that) and you could do a list of those that agree with you (I don’t expect you to do so either) but I am sure that my list would constitute more than 3% of the total. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:31 PM Francis, yes, there is a strong preponderance of evidence that CO2 is the leading cause of AGW. But since you won’t read papers or textbooks, you’ll never learn that and will always be arguing from a position of ignorance. — How much more warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has a significant effect? mojomojo says: January 3, 2017 at 7:29 PM An email I sent [email protected] was sent back as not deliverable. Do you have a email current address?If not heres the content. Hi Roy , I started a thread using your post “Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998″as the topic and I would appreciate if you would comment on why version 6 global TLT data is not the data used in your blog. Heres the blog.You will need to create a username. Thanks Im the sole skeptic on this environmental site and have been defending climate skepticism for years without any scientific or engineering background. https://priuschat.com/threads/latest-global-temp-anomaly-dec-16-0-24%C2%B0c-global-satellites-2016-not-statistically-warme.175146/#post-2473564 Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:40 PM I think the probability that 2016 was the warmest year is 66%, and the probability that 1998 was is the complement of that, 34%. Assume the temperatures are normally distributed, with 2sigma = 0.10. So what we have are two normal distributions side-by-side, one (2016) with a peak 0.02 C more than 1998, to the right. The probability that 1998 was the warmest year is the area to the right of the 2016 curve from 0.50 C to infinity. Normalizing the coordinates, this is the area to the right of 0.4 of the normal distribution. 0.4 = (0.50-0.48)/0.05 where the first two numbers are the means, and sigma = 0.05 is the standard deviation. The area of the normal distribution to the right of 0.4 is 0.3446. See: http://www.stat.ncsu.edu/people/osborne/courses/xiamen/normal-table.pdf so P(1998 is warmest) = 34% The probability 2016 was the warmest year is the complement of the probability that 1998 was, so P(2016 is warmest) = 66% Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 10:04 PM “Assume the temperatures are normally distributed, with 2sigma = 0.10.” Why should we assume that? Why should we assume a time invariant distribution at all? Answer: we shouldn’t. These data are autocorrelated, with both long and short term correlations. “So what we have are two normal distributions side-by-side, one (2016) with a peak 0.02 C more than 1998, to the right.” You do not appear to understand probability distributions. The height at any given point does not have physical significance, only area under the curve. “The area of the normal distribution to the right of 0.4 is 0.3446.” No, no, no, no, no. That is nothing like a test of the null hypothesis, Junior. This is terrible. Go back to doing whatever your liberal arts degree qualifies you to do. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 10:12 PM You clearly don’t understand the nature of physical measurements. The annual temperature for any year is (I’m assuming) normally distributed, with a best estimate (0.50 C for 2016, 0.48 C for 1998) and, according to Roy, 2sigma = test of statistical significance = 0.10 C. So sigma = 0.05 C. The rest of my calculation proceeds as above. Reply Bryan says: January 4, 2017 at 3:52 AM Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville said; “Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie Christy is correct. You cannot claim more accuracy than your margin of error. This would be clear in any science other than the climate pseudoscience. If I handed in a lab report at university with a margin of error of a tenth of a degree yet claimed an accuracy to one hundredth a degree I would get an embarrassing fail. Perhaps you have a degree in climate pseudoscience? Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:11 AM Sorry, no. First of all, I’m calculating something different than whether the two numbers are “a statistical tie.” They aren’t — one is definitely larger than the other, and I calculated the probability that it is. Second, all of my figures are to two significant places, just like the data. Third, I suspect this uncertainty number of 0.10 C (2sigma) is just a guess. Unless Roy took the time to take ALL the uncertainties in the input data and ALL the resulting uncertainties in the calculations, which would be quite difficult, the standard deviation of the monthly numbers (0.05 C) probably comes a sense of the spread of the monthly result as calculated by the UAH model. It’d be nice to know for sure. I stand by my 66%. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 11:22 AM Sorry, DA. Your math is appalling. This is not the way you do hypothesis testing. Not even close. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:31 PM When you have nothing but name calling and no analysis of your own, your reply is what’s appalling. Reply Bryan says: January 5, 2017 at 3:55 AM David Appell Perhaps you do not have a science background so I will explain more fully. If I was carrying out a lab report on an experiment I was required to lay out the entire mathematics of determining the final margin of error in the reported results. This is called error analysis. The experiment may involve several components and sensors each with its own margin of error. For example the display might claim an accuracy of 0.01% and a sensor might have an accuracy of 0.1% Usually quoted as plus or minus a percentage. There may be several components to the experiment giving rise to a final calculation of a value or result. In such a case it is perfectly possible to find a value with more digits than can be justified by error analysis. The iron rule is you cannot claim to be more accurate than the final margin of error. So the result would be quoted with the redundant digits stripped out. Spencer and Christy would be bound to report that; Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie” To do otherwise would be professional suicide. Tim Folkerts and Mike M are physicists and broadly support the IPCC case. However I’m sure that now that the margin of error is known,that in this case the report is following standard practice. It would be good to raise the standard of debate instead of shouting at each other. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:41 AM Bryan, I’m well aware of where final margins of error come from. “Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie” No it isn’t. See http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2017/01/the-statistical-tie-fallacy.html I don’t think the MOE of 0.10 C is right, either. I gather this number came from twice (appx 95% confidene limit) with the MOE on each number of 0.05 C. First, I wonder how that MOE was determined — by running all the raw data uncertainities through the UAH data model, or mostly a guess. (I have the same question about GISS’s data model, BTW.) Second, I think it’s too high. We really want to know the MOE of the difference of two numbers, T(2010)-T(1998). Using standard error analysis, that is not sigma2, but sigmasqrt(2) = 0.07 C. So the difference is (0.02 +/- 0.07) C. One can calculate the probability that difference is > 0, and the result will be that the probability that T(2010)>T(1998) is > 50%. Why wouldn’t UAH do that here? Bryan says: January 5, 2017 at 10:46 AM David you still dont get it. Its not a matter of juggling around with statistics to get a most likely outcome. This might be appropriate with social studies as in your example but has nothing to do with physical science. I have given you the names of two physicists (who are broadly IPCC supporters) who when they look at my post will agree with it I’m sure because its very basic. For example, a display unit is capable of displaying accurately to 0.01% resolution is linked to a temperature sensor with 0.1% resolution accuracy. The high resolution display will not improve the accuracy of the temperature reading. Even though the display unit will appear to show more digits than is justified,the superfluous digits will have to be discarded. Please quote any physics,chemistry or engineering textbook that would agree with your method of dealing with the unavoidable error analysis of a physical measurement for the result to be valid. To quote election results is really a joke and you will not be taken seriously Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 11:47 AM David is claiming that a juggle of 0.02 deg in an assumed 0.1 deg 1-sigma normal error distribution makes it 66% likely that the underlying mean has shifted upwards by 0.02 deg. It’s farcical. He hasn’t verified the distribution. He has no inkling of the underlying statistical model. He hasn’t even applied the F-test. His entire methodology is cockeyed. He’s just throwing something at the wall to see if it sticks. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:27 PM Bart says: “David is claiming that a juggle of 0.02 deg in an assumed 0.1 deg 1-sigma normal error distribution makes it 66% likely that the underlying mean has shifted upwards by 0.02 deg.” No, sigma = 0.05 C “Its farcical.” More insults, still no analysis. “He hasnt verified the distribution.” Your gonna have to do better than that. Since I don’t have all the data, I can’t see the distribution. I’d be surprised if it wasn’t Gaussian. I assumed each annual temperture was normally distributed around its best estimate, with sigma=0.05 C “He has no inkling of the underlying statistical model. He hasnt even applied the F-test. His entire methodology is cockeyed. Hes just throwing something at the wall to see if it sticks.” No I’m not. My method agrees with similar results for polling data. Come back when you have your own analysis and can do more than meaningless ranting. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:28 PM Bryan, it’s UAH who says sigma=0.05 C, not me. Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 12:44 PM Bart, How bout this? We have two numbers, a, b, with Gaussian pdfs and sigma =.05, want to know prob that a is greater than b, or that a-b >0. So pdf of a-b is also a Gaussian with sigma (a-b) = sqrt(2) sigma =.07 and peaking at 0.02. Prob of a-b > 0 is area of pdf > 0. Agreed?? If so then prob is 61%. However useful that is.. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 2:47 PM Nate – In the first place, the claimed sigma was 0.1, not 0.05. Next, the pdf is only Gaussian with sqrt(2) times the sigma if the error process is i.i.d, which has not been shown. Next, neutral ground is 50% probability, so even 61% would only be slightly better than even odds. Put in sigma = 0.1, and you get 58% (sigma = 0.05 would actually give 66%). That’s only 8 percentage points beyond a coin toss. There are better than 4 in 10 odds that a is less than b! Then, for the actual system we are arguing about, there is the autocorrelation of El Nino to consider. El Ninos come and go. Some are bigger. Some are smaller. It is essentially random where it peaks. So, you’ve got to take into account the variability of that as well, which pushes your sigma value well beyond 0.1 deg. Then, you have to consider the underlying natural pattern, and take that into account to see if there is any deviation from it. That pattern, which was in place long before CO2 could potentially have been a problem, is a steady rise coming out of the LIA plus an approximately 60 year cyclical component. When you remove that natural pattern, there is actually very little left that could be attributed to CO2 in the atmosphere. When you have done all that, you then can use that model to make a determination of whether there is a systematic change due to CO2. There are sophisticated tools available for doing that, much more involved than I can describe here. But, it is apparent by inspection that there is very little influence once you have accounted for everything as I have outlined above. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:20 PM Bart says: “Nate In the first place, the claimed sigma was 0.1, not 0.05.” No, 0.1 C was the test for significance, presumably the 95% confidence limit, appx 2sigma. Sigma for each annual temperature is 0.05 C, as Roy has written before on this blog. BTW: A calculation for polling data from two academic statisticians agrees nearly exactly with my 66%: http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2017/01/the-statistical-tie-fallacy.html (Roundoff error.) David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:21 PM Yes, Nate, I think that’s right, as I wrote below. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 3:45 PM You’re an idiot and a blackguard, Appell. http://www.steynonline.com/7661/the-craziness-of-the-climate-science-echo-chamber I showed in voluminous detail why you are wrong. You haven’t even chipped a full cube off the iceberg. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:34 AM More ad hominem attacks Bart. That’s all the game you ever have. Tim Folkerts says: January 6, 2017 at 12:28 PM Since my name came up … a couple quick comments. First, if a=0.5 and b=0.48, then a>b. Period. No statistics required. I suspect what Nate meant is something more like “We have two numbers, a=0.5, b=0.48, that we know a priori were drawn from two distributions (call them “A” and “B”) with Gaussian pdfs and sigma =0.05. We want to know prob that the mean of A (“mu_A”) is greater than the mean of B (“mu_B”), or that (mu_A)-(mu_B)>0.” Then the 61% probability quoted above sound about right. But this requires assumed knowledge of the distributions and assumed knowledge that the items were drawn randomly. Beyond the pure statistics, there are then the (to me) more important questions about drift in the sensors and changes in the data sets being used. Presumably these are one major source of the estimated uncertainties of 0.05 that have been quoted. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:48 PM Correct, Tim. I chose not to quibble. But, the more important deal is that there is an implicit assumption that both El Ninos are of equal intensity, and the only variation beyond CO2 induced warming is the instrument error. That alone renders the result wholly disconnected from reality. Moreover, not all the change would be due to CO2 induced warming – there are other influences upon temperature beyond El Nino and CO2. Many more. And, then you get into the problems you identify. If I took the analysis at DA’s word, I would simply counter with, “OK, 0.02 deg in 18 years is 0.011 deg/decade. Congratulations, you just proved AGW is negligible.” But, I didn’t do that, because the analysis is ridiculous on its face. Bryan says: January 9, 2017 at 8:43 AM From https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1C1AVNE_enGB620GB620&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=margin%20of%20error%20definition 1.2.4 State units in the accepted SI format. There are several ways to write most derived units. For example: meters per second can be written as m/s or m s-1. It is important to note that only the latter, m s-1, is accepted as a valid format. Therefor, you should always write meters per second (speed) as m s-1 and meters per second per second (acceleration) as m s-2. Note that this applies to all units, not just the two stated above. 1.2.5 State values in scientific notation and in multiples of units with appropriate prefixes. When expressing large or small quantities we often use prefixes in front of the unit. For example, instead of writing 10000 V we write 10 kV, where k stands for kilo, which is 1000. We do the same for small quantities such as 1 mV which is equal to 0,001 V, m standing for milli meaning one thousandth (1/1000). When expressing the units in words rather than symbols we say 10 kilowatts and 1 milliwatt. A table of prefixes is given on page 2 of the physics data booklet. 1.2.6 Describe and give examples of random and systematic errors. Random errors A random error, is an error which affects a reading at random. Sources of random errors include: The observer being less than perfect The readability of the equipment External effects on the observed item Systematic errors A systematic error, is an error which occurs at each reading. Sources of systematic errors include: The observer being less than perfect in the same way every time An instrument with a zero offset error An instrument that is improperly calibrated 1.2.7 Distinguish between precision and accuracy. Precision A measurement is said to be accurate if it has little systematic errors. Accuracy A measurement is said to be precise if it has little random errors. A measurement can be of great precision but be inaccurate (for example, if the instrument used had a zero offset error). 1.2.8 Explain how the effects of random errors may be reduced. The effect of random errors on a set of data can be reduced by repeating readings. On the other hand, because systematic errors occur at each reading, repeating readings does not reduce their affect on the data. 1.2.9 Calculate quantities and results of calculations to the appropriate number of significant figures. The number of significant figures in a result should mirror the precision of the input data. That is to say, when dividing and multiplying, the number of significant figures must not exceed that of the least precise value. Example: Find the speed of a car that travels 11.21 meters in 1.23 seconds. 11.21 x 1.13 = 13.7883 The answer contains 6 significant figures. However, since the value for time (1.23 s) is only 3 s.f. we write the answer as 13.7 m s-1. The number of significant figures in any answer should reflect the number of significant figures in the given data. Tim S says: January 3, 2017 at 10:43 PM It seems to the me that the real question is the relative strength of the 1998 and 2016 El Nino events in area, intensity, and duration. If the “Godzilla” El Nino of 2016 was stronger than 1998 as advertised, than the global temperature should have been affected in the same way. Reply argus says: January 3, 2017 at 10:53 PM Tim I agree, and to do that, comparing Jan 1 to Dec 31 may not even be the best way. Reply argus says: January 3, 2017 at 10:54 PM Jan 1 – Dec 31 ’98 vs Jan 1 – Dec 31 ’16 Reply MarkB says: January 4, 2017 at 9:23 AM By ONI 1998 and 2016 were pretty close to equivalent. e.g. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Reply Tim S says: January 4, 2017 at 11:26 PM The peak is about the same, but the area under the curve is larger for 2016. Is that important? Reply MarkB says: January 5, 2017 at 7:52 AM Foster and Rahmstorf 2011 suggests that ONI lagged by about 5 months integrated over the calendar year as a first order approximation of the relative magnitude effect of El Nino events. To a second order, it seem plausible that prior warmth matters. If one were so motivated they could extend F&R with a autocorrelation term to investigate this. The more scientifically relevant parameter is the long term trend. Record warm years are more relevant as propaganda tools and it should surprise no one that that contrarians will minimize their significance and warmists will highlight them. Reply ren says: January 3, 2017 at 11:50 PM The decrease in solar activity has a huge impact on ozone and air circulation in the stratosphere. This is particularly important over the poles where there is practically no tropopause and waves in the stratosphere directly affect the troposphere. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_OND_NH_2016.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_OND_NH_2016.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2016.png Reply Entropic man says: January 4, 2017 at 6:59 AM I used woodforthetrees to get the linear trend for UAH6.0. http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/uah6/every/trend That is 0.45C in 37 years, 0.12C per decade. I also calculated how far the annual averages for 1998 and 2016 exceeded the trend. In 1998 the excess was 0.48-0= 0.48C. In 2016 the excess was 0.5C-0.25C = 0.25C This shows two things. Firstly, the 2016 El Nino was considerably weaker than 1998, so we are not comparing like with like. Secondly, the underlying UAH6.0 trend shows 0.25C warming since 1998. With John Christy’s quoted 95% confidence limits of +/-0.1C that is statistically significant warming. Reply Entropic man says: January 4, 2017 at 7:46 AM Just for fun I added the post-1998 trend to my graph. http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/uah6/every/trend/plot/uah6-land/from:1998/to:2017/trend Curiously the trend starts in 1998 at a higher value than the post-1979 trend and then reverts towards it. Conclusion? 1998 is an anomalously warm year, and not a good choice as a starting point for judging long term trends. Reply barry says: January 4, 2017 at 8:29 AM Don’t see the importance in comparing calendar years when using anomalies. The warmest 12 months were from Dec 2015 to Nov 2016 at 0.52C Reply sod says: January 4, 2017 at 10:20 AM sorry, but you are using facts again. People following this topic do not want facts. They prefer fake news. They do not like surface temperature data. it shows too much warming. They do not look at longer periods or other periods in the satellite set, as they also do not show anything that can be compared to 1998. people here prefer the single datapoint (Jan-Dez 2016, which in comparison with 1998 still shows an increase. so the method of their choice is the “tie” intervention. None of them ever uses this bizarre concept. Imagine you had a great dinner. Bets you ever had or just tied with your birthday dinner 2 years ago? Best book list? Absurd, as obviously the top 10 is mostly tied with each other. And let us not get into sports. basically the whole “winner” concept is dead, when we add a +-2 goals error range to soccer results and call 90% of the games a tie… Reply Lewis says: January 4, 2017 at 8:37 PM Sod, What you said is clear as dirt. Happy New Year Reply Steve Richards says: January 4, 2017 at 8:30 AM Gordon Robertson says: January 4, 2017 at 4:46 AM: Nitrogen has little radiative performance when compared to CO2 and H2O See: Thermal Radiative Transfer and Properties By M. Quinn Brewster Previews of this book are available via: https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=z_anVNTmQLUC&lpg=PA250&ots=118JAO5gvp&dq=radiative%20gases%20quantum&pg=PA250#v=onepage&q=radiative%20gases%20quantum&f=false Page 250 starts the explanation with quantum mechanics. Page 252 tells how nitrogen and oxygen do not react much to IR but CO2, H2O and others do and why they react and how the theory matches with physical tests that can be conducted to measure said sensitivity to IR. Page 259 goes into great detail about how CO2 and H2O react to IR photons: stretching, bending, stretching. Page 293 onwards contains some tables that indicate the effectiveness of H2O compared with CO2: Its all in the book, Gordon. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 9:59 AM All gases that are greenhouse gases consist of molecules of 3 atoms or more. Only those hae vibrational and rotational bands in the infrared. Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 12:33 PM Steve, Steve, Steve always relying on a book that displays tiny supporting details when the common sense answer is right in front of your face. humans do not cause catostrophic climate change and there’s nothing we can do to change that! End of story! Bye bye! See you later! Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 12:37 PM Btw Stevie. You can’t always trust everything people say on the internet. the earth is flat do you trust me? But but it’s on the internet so it has to be true. Lol Reply barry says: January 4, 2017 at 4:42 PM Steve seems to have more regard for books than blogs. Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 10:30 AM Air from Scandinavia reaches Greece and Italy. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00855/xynkpjs7qg90.png Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:40 AM OMG, you can’t be serious!? What does that leave for the Scandinavians to breathe? Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 10:44 AM This is only the evening. Wait a until morning. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 11:11 AM ren, I don’t see how the Scandanavians can go all night without breathing…. Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 10:52 AM And how is the temperature in the US? http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.png Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 11:12 AM What do you think this has to do with climate change, the subject of this blog? Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 12:26 PM These are changes in circulation associated with a decrease of solar activity. http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00855/wq4kwee7jx3k.png Ozone at a height of about 45 km. ren says: January 4, 2017 at 12:38 PM It will continue to be. http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/DipallR.gif ren says: January 4, 2017 at 1:15 PM This is not a joke, but a real threat to North America. http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00855/p3i7avs9uoer.gif David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:28 PM It’s just weather. I predict North American will survive. ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 1:34 PM Nothing. They all die. And they live happily ever after. The end. Happy new year. Reply John Parsons says: January 4, 2017 at 10:24 PM Why do you write like a foolish child? Do you think you are humorous? Do you imagine that your sarcastic name calling, belittling and bullying makes you appear knowledgeable? You are an embarrassment to reasonable skeptics. Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 9:58 AM In your dreams Sun Spot says: January 4, 2017 at 2:16 PM 2016 warmest year eve, just more fake news. . . Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 3:21 PM This is not a “trend”, but the weather. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/CustomGraphic/freeze1.gif Reply barry says: January 4, 2017 at 4:35 PM From way above: Fake news NOAA has perfected the art of obfuscating the temperature record by blatantly slashing 5000 surface stations from the global pool of 6500 Fact NOAA researchers spent a few years in the 90s obtaining hand-written climate data from around the world from the bulk of weather stations that do not send their data to the US in the format used by NOAA, and digitised this information. All the while, the 1500 or so stations outside the US that continually report to NOAA in the usable format continued to do so. So NOAA didn’t slash stations. They added a great many that don’t report information to NOAA. That project ended in the mid-90s. http://tinyurl.com/hztu3jj [NOAA research paper detailing the data collection programs] Fake news takes a few seconds to read. Facts take longer. Reply Scott says: January 4, 2017 at 9:26 PM The fact that “global warming” has changed to “climate change” in the realm of media discussion speaks volumes. Its really all anyone needs to know. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:30 PM From Republican pollster Frank Luntz’s memo “Words that Work,” a which he wrote to Republicans urging them to use the term “climate change” instead of “global warming”: “”Climate change” is less frightening than “global warming”. As one focus group participant noted, climate change ‘sounds like you’re going from Pittsburgh to Fort Lauderdale.’ While global warming has catastrophic connotations attached to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challenge.” “Frank Luntz “Straight Talk”: The Environment: A Cleaner, Safer, Healthier America” – memo to Bush Administration on communicating environmental issues, 2002 http://www.politicalstrategy.org/archives/001330.php Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 9:09 AM Now, here we have an “argument” that uses innuendo instead of substance. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:17 PM Well worth reading, Roy: “The Myth Of The Statistical Tie,” David Drumm, jonathanturley.org, 10/6/2012 https://jonathanturley.org/2012/10/06/the-myth-of-the-statistical-tie/ Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:28 PM and: “Margin of Error,” Kevin Drum, Washington Monthly, August 19, 2004. http://washingtonmonthly.com/2004/08/19/margin-of-error-3/ The table he mentions is no longer on that page, but it can be found here: “One Last Encore for the Great “Statistical Tie” Fallacy,” Kevin Drum, Mother Jones, 10/3/12 http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/one-last-encore-great-statistical-tie-fallacy Reply Norman says: January 4, 2017 at 10:40 PM This article calculates climate sensitivity of Carbon Dioxide doubling at 0.43 C. The rest of the warming is from other causes. I have one I am working on at this time but have not calculated it yet. https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/analytical-approach-to-calculate-the-heat-fluxes-in-the-atmosphere-and-to-quantify-the-sensitivity-of-earth-temperature-due-to-co2-2157-7625-S5-012.pdf This work matches what the CERES data shows and makes sense with Hottel’s work. http://fchart.com/ees/gas%20emittance.pdf Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:49 PM Junk. CO2 is only 45% higher, and the temperature has risen more than twice 0.43 C. And that’s with aerosol cooling. Reply Norman says: January 4, 2017 at 11:42 PM David Appell Junk? Or you are an idiot and are unable to follow the logic of the derived equations so you post your typical unthinking reactionary comment “Junk” with no thought or explanation as to why you think the work of these researchers is “Junk”. Looking at their material I would not call it “Junk” and they explain in the article (which of course you did not read or consider before you stupid mindless post). What aerosol cooling? The EPA cleaned up the air removing vast amounts of pollutants (sulfur dioxide) that were reflecting solar radiation before it reached Earth’s surface. Look at Hottel’s equations to see how empty your scientific thought process seems to be. Increasing Carbon Dioxide concentration does very little to the emissivity at the current levels. If you look at Roy’s chart of all the years, the highest non El Nino years were around 0.2 C above the zero line which fits fairly well with the article you call “Junk”. One thing I wish you would realize is you are not as intelligent as you think you are. You post some alarmist points and pat yourself on the back but will not even consider alternate intelligence. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 8:51 AM Norman, did you even read the paper you’re hawking? The model is 1-dimensional. And not very realistic. From the paper: “In the present model, global mean parameters are used as constants, e.g. cloud height, relative humidity and Earth emissivity” “What aerosol cooling?” That around world — and not US-only. Reply Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 9:11 AM David Appell The paper’s primary purpose was not to make a realistic energy budget with all the factors. It was to find the radiation contribution of doubling Carbon Dioxide only. It made assumptions for those things not related to carbon dioxide. For the radiant energy increase caused by carbon dioxide alone it looks like they used Hottels’s work on emissivity of this gas. It does not go up much after a certain amount so it will not increase the downwelling IR (which is the only radiant component that can add extra energy to the surface). CERES data downwelling global average does show this. No increase in downwelling IR (all-sky) in 16 years. I know you somehow have concluded that the CERES graphs are my work so it is pointless to direct you to this link. Anyway thanks for looking at the paper. I don’t mind your views as long as they are based upon actual looking at what is posted. Wish you would do this with the CERES material. I would like to know your explanation of what is presented on this website (no increase in downwelling IR (all-sky) in 16 years and no increase in total flux (all-sky) in 16 years. To produce radiant warming you would have to have an increase in these two radiant fluxes. Good day to you. Hope you are having a Happy New Year working to convince everyone of the dire threat of Global Warming. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:15 PM Norman: But the surface temperature increase is 0.9 C, twice that paper’s purported climate sensitivity to CO2. Yet CO2 has’t even increased by 50% yet, let alone doubled. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:16 PM Norman wrote: “The rest of the warming is from other causes.” What other causes? Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 11:20 PM “The Statistical Tie Fallacy,” davidappell.blogspot.com 1/4/17. http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2017/01/the-statistical-tie-fallacy.html Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 11:35 PM Arctic air moving south in Europe. This is only the weather. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00855/xpc1gu9yozqo.png Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 12:36 AM This is only the weather. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/CustomGraphic/freeze1.gif Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 1:11 AM Is the ocean surface temperature anomalies indicate the global warming? http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.1.2.2017.gif Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:12 PM This shows your global warming: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File:Ocean_Heat_Content_(2012).png Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 12:39 AM Why do not you admit that the temperature determines the air circulation? Does adding CO2 protect against attack arctic air? Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 12:42 AM Sorry! Why do not you admit that with a temperature determines the air circulation? Does adding CO2 protect against attack arctic air? Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 5, 2017 at 2:10 AM DA…”The Statistical Tie Fallacy,” Do you, or do you not accept the IPCC admission of a 15 year warming hiatus between 1998 and 2016? I have posted the link several times with the page number but I’ll do it gain if you like. If you accept the 2012 IPCC review with it multiple peer reviewed sources, I don’t see why you have problems with the UAH data. Between 1998 and 2012 they agree to a flat trend. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:54 AM Ahem: “Much-touted global warming pause never happened” http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/06/much-touted-global-warming-pause-never-happened I take it that you are aware that even the IPCC report indicated that the temperature was still rising during this “pause”? I only ask because a lot of you only seem to understand the word “hiatus” out of the entire text. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 8:52 AM Gordon, you’ve asked me this several times, and I’ve answered it several times. Reply Norman says: January 4, 2017 at 11:43 PM If I did my calculations properly my idea would be off by a factor of 10. The link explained that man building dams and pulling up water for irrigation led to more water evaporated than if man had not done such tasks. I was using the graph to figure how much latent energy would be released into the atmosphere by man’s increased use of water. I used 1000 cubic KM/year as my choice just to see where this figure would lead. latent heat to turn 1 gram of water into vapor is 600 calories so you get this energy in return when the vapor condenses to water. 1000 cubic kilometers of water is equal to 10^18 grams. 1000 km^3 = 600×10^18 calories or 2500 joules x 10^18. 2.5×10^21 joules of additional energy released a year by extra evaporation/condensation cycle. Reply Lewis says: January 5, 2017 at 7:31 AM Norman, Re: Dams Have you taken into consideration the vegetation that was replaced by water? Many, not all, dams, flood areas which had a great amount of plants, whose affects would have to be considered before you can make final conclusions. Lewis Reply Norman says: January 4, 2017 at 11:44 PM Would not take the links, if interested the sight was Aquastat. http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water_use/image/WithTimePop_eng.png Reply Norman says: January 4, 2017 at 11:46 PM It took a link to the graph page I was using. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Ocean_Heat_Content_%282012%29.png But the latent energy release would not be enough by a factor of 10 to explain the ocean gain in energy. 2.5×10^21 joules/year would not explain the energy increase in the oceans. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:52 AM A couple of pieces of news today. The good news is that Judith Curry is apparently hurt at being left out of the death-threat and e-mail-hacking championships and has resigned. One loony fewer! The bad news is: “Much-touted global warming pause never happened” http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/06/much-touted-global-warming-pause-never-happened Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 3:06 AM Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice extent is currently the same as in previous years. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php Reply fonzarelli says: January 5, 2017 at 3:13 AM Don’t worry, Bigmouth, with global cooling on the way we won’t need Dr. Curry anyhow. (why don’t you go back out in the wilderness and take a few pictures)… Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 6, 2017 at 4:58 AM Dream on. We didn’t need her anyway, by the way. Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 3:14 AM Do you think it is warmer in January in North America than a year ago? http://www.intellicast.com/WxImages/TEMPcast/usa_048.jpg?t=213 Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 6, 2017 at 4:57 AM I’m not interested in the provinces. This is about GLOBAl warming. See graph at the top. Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 3:18 AM “What if the missing heat has been there all along?” http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.1.2.2017.gif Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 3:24 AM Dr. Curry explained, the deeper reasons have to do with my growing disenchantment with universities, the academic field of climate science and scientists I no longer know what to say to students and postdocs regarding how to navigate the CRAZINESS in the field of climate science. Research and other professional activities are professionally rewarded only if they are channeled in certain directions approved by a politicized academic establishment funding, ease of getting your papers published, getting hired in prestigious positions, appointments to prestigious committees and boards, professional recognition, etc. How young scientists are to navigate all this is beyond me, and it often becomes a battle of scientific integrity versus career suicide. Reply Lewis says: January 5, 2017 at 7:35 AM I believe Dr. Spencer addressed this in an earlier missive and was roundly chastised for doing so. Which lends much credence to Dr. Curry’s statement. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:10 AM Curry’s excuse is nonsense. Implying that everyone but yourself is corrupt is a pathetic insinuation, trying to save a little bit of face. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 5:10 PM Yeah, you’ve never viciously attacked her in unseemly non-science related terms, have you DA? Oh, wait… http://www.steynonline.com/7661/the-craziness-of-the-climate-science-echo-chamber Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:38 AM Like Curry never attacks anybody. But at least, unlike you, she includes some science. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:07 PM Double ironic, since’s Steyn makes a living by attacking people, and is being sued by one person he libeled. It’s the pot calling the ink stain black. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:59 PM Get a cloth, and wipe the spittle from your chin. ren says: January 5, 2017 at 3:33 AM Dr. Roy Spencer, thank you very much for your scientific honesty. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 7:24 AM Fake news The fact that global warming has changed to climate change in the realm of media discussion speaks volumes. Fact Both terms have been in use for decades and still are. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was inaugurated in 1988. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 8:07 AM Nah, don’t you know that the IPCC was first founded as IPGW? And later all records of this have been forged. ðŸ˜‰ Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 8:08 AM /sarc off Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 7:30 AM 2016 statistically indistinguishable from 1998 in the latest version of the UAH data set. Yep. Trend from 1998 to any year after – statistically indistinguishable from warming fast, warming cool, or no trend. AGW skeptics have renounced statistical analysis (statistical significance) right here on this blog as some kind of fakery. But as soon as it is convenient to their outlook…. Reply Lewis says: January 5, 2017 at 7:34 AM “convenient” is not exclusive to one side of an emotional argument. Pay Attention. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 8:15 AM Tacit agreement is adequate, despite the attempt to play tit for tat. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 7:42 AM IMHO, the headline “Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998” is misleading. This is not what “global satellites” says. The satellites by themselves don’t say anything. Instead, this is what your retrieval algorithm says, for which there hasn’t been published any detailed description of the underlying assumptions and methodology so far. Nor any information about the structural uncertainties inherent in your analysis. The UAH 6 version of your analysis apparently produces results that are an outlier, compared to both surface temperature analyses and other tropospheric temperature analyses based on the retrieval algorithms developed by other groups, e.g. Remote Sensing Systems. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 8:46 AM And, the UAH model code. No one can have a look at it. GISS makes their data model computer code available: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/faq/#q213 Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 5, 2017 at 8:54 AM UAH version 5.6 model code has been publicly available for years at NCDC/NCEI. The V6 code will be available there soon. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:12 AM Ok, I was wrong. Sorry. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:26 AM I got the notion UAH wasn’t sharing all their code from what Henry Waxman said to John Christy in 2006: “Well, I contacted RSS about your testimony and Mr. Frank Wentz sent me a letter last night, and he wrote to say, Dr. Christy has never been willing to share his computer code in a substantial way, and he provides the text of a 2002 e-mail exchange between RSS and yourself. In light of this letter, Dr. Christy, I would be interested if you care to clarify your testimony because Mr. Wentz wrote further, I think the complexity issue was a red herring. My interpretation of Dr. Christys response is he simply didnt want us looking over his shoulder, possibly discovering errors in his work. So we had to take a more tedious trial-and-error approach to uncovering the errors in his methods. What do you say about that? That sounds inconsistent with what you have told us.” https://thinkprogress.org/quoting-john-christy-on-climate-change-is-like-quoting-dick-cheney-on-iraq-414c7bc89cac#.jiq5ev8hs Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 9:15 PM Roy, does your response mean you DIDN’T share your code before v5.6? During all those years where you had a sign error? People say they had to reverse engineer your methodology to finally point out this sign error to you…. ….and that you and Christy were uncooperative all the way. Is that what the Waxman quote above is about? Would appreciate some straightforward answerw, finally. ren says: January 5, 2017 at 8:56 AM I repeat: when the polar vortex is strong is a range of cold air is smaller. The cycle changes in the strength of the polar vortex depends on solar activity. Weak vortex may occur over many years and temperatures fall on mid latitudes. Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 9:04 AM The current temperatures in the northern hemisphere show no growth. http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Current.aspx Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 9:14 AM You are right. I looked at this picture under the link for whole five minutes. Nothing was growing in there. Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 9:25 AM Two factors affect the global temperature: ENSO and the condition of the polar vortex. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:27 AM No growth compared to when — an hour ago, or yesterday? Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 9:30 AM Look at minimum temperatures. http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Minimum.aspx Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 9:40 AM It can can be seen here warming in the northern hemisphere? https://weather.gc.ca/data/saisons/images/[email protected]@sd_000.png Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:54 PM ren: Your charts of specific days demonstrate nothing. Why can’t you understand that? Or are you just desperate to comment here in any way whatsoever? Salvatore Del Prete says: January 5, 2017 at 9:52 AM AGW theory is a hoax there is o global warming and now global cooling will be the rule going forward. End of the story . Reply Tim Folkerts says: January 5, 2017 at 10:23 AM Wasn’t that your “end of story” a decade ago? ðŸ™‚ Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:07 PM Global cooling has started, and it will be here for sometime to come. All the factors that control the climate are now in, or going toward a colder phase. – Salvatore del Prete, December 31, 2010 http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/12/dessler-and-spencer-debate-cloud-feedback/#comment-8257 Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 3:51 PM Has it warmed significantly since a decade ago? Or, are you relying on a transient El Nino to give you just a little more time until the music stops? Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:40 AM Ten years is too short a time period to draw conclusions about global warming. Reply Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:58 PM Then, what is the point of your and Tim’s responses to Salvatore? Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:58 PM My response was to you. BTW, if you’re really silly enough to ask for a 10-yr trend, for UAH v6 LT it’s (+0.33 +/- 0.11) C/decade. 95% CL for MOE. +/- 0.38 C/decade for rank 1 autocorrelation. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:08 PM AR(1) is entirely inappropriate for these data. Any analysis based on that presumption is about as well-rooted as Birnam Wood. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:53 PM I didn’t say AR(1) was “appropriate.” I said what the result was if you assumed rank 1 autocorrelation. Of course, since you are incapable of doing any mathematics at all, grumbling is all you can ever do. David J Sanchez says: January 5, 2017 at 11:25 AM Bottom line is that there is no proof whatsoever that the changes we see are anthropogenic, or caused by humankind. Throughout history in the past, before the advent of the Industrial Revolution with the introduction of factories and the automobiles, there have been periods of even warmer teperatures, than we have experienced in the last 100 years. Studying the climate is a multi disciplinary undertaking, and should never have included those that are utilizing taxpayer money (subsidies) to fill their pockets. This is mostly a plan to take more money It of taxpayer’s to create more regulations to restrict human activity under government control. True free markets with intelligent dialogue and discussion would solve most problems besetting us today. Research and investigation of this subject is most important, not the EMOTION that rules this anomaly presently. Wake up everyone! Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 1:21 PM “Bottom line is that there is no proof whatsoever that the changes we see are anthropogenic, or caused by humankind.” If this is supposed to be a conclusion drawn from above data, it’s a non sequitur. Generally, there is no “proof” in science for anything, in the meaning of mathematical proof or absolute certainty. There is only evidence in science. And the evidence overwhelmingly points to that human activity has been a major cause of global warming observed since pre-industrial times, and the main cause for the warming since the mid-20th century. The evidence that would support any other explanation for the observed global warming (and related other changes in the Earth system) falls systematically short. “Throughout history in the past, before the advent of the Industrial Revolution with the introduction of factories and the automobiles, there have been periods of even warmer teperatures, than we have experienced in the last 100 years.” When were these periods, according to what data? “Studying the climate is a multi disciplinary undertaking, and should never have included those that are utilizing taxpayer money (subsidies) to fill their pockets.” I don’t understand what you are exactly saying here. Are you saying government should not fund science? And when scientists get a salary, they were illegitimate “filling their pockets”? What else should be? How should science be funded? And are scientists supposed to work for free? Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 3:54 PM “The evidence that would support any other explanation for the observed global warming (and related other changes in the Earth system) falls systematically short.” Argumentum ad ignorantiam. “How should science be funded? And are scientists supposed to work for free?” – Testimony by Tobacco Institute scientists, circa 1978 Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 4:37 PM “Argumentum ad ignorantiam” False claim. It would have been true, if I had said that alternative explanations for global warming were false because evidence for them had fallen systematically short. This is not what I said. ” Testimony by Tobacco Institute scientists, circa 1978″ Source? Also, I’m missing what your argument is in reply to my question. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:47 PM You are arguing for a conclusion based on purported lack of evidence for an alternative. Classic logical fallacy. You cannot be blind to the fact that enormous sums of money are being exchanged for scientific testimony favorable to the AGW conjecture. And, we have nothing to show for it. Temperatures are not rising any faster than they have for over 100 years, with only occasional cyclical departures of varying duration. We can go about this point forever, but things should become a lot clearer once the present El Nino has run its course. Until then, I suggest you have an exit strategy planned. Just, you know, to be safe and cover all your bases. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 6:01 PM “You are arguing for a conclusion based on purported lack of evidence for an alternative. Classic logical fallacy.” Stop misrepresenting what I said. This is not what I did. Instead, I argued for one explanation stating that there was overwhelming available evidence for it, and then I compared this to the lack of evidence for alternative explanations. “You cannot be blind to the fact that enormous sums of money are being exchanged for scientific testimony favorable to the AGW conjecture.” And here comes the conspiracy fantasy. “Temperatures are not rising any faster than they have for over 100 years, with only occasional cyclical departures of varying duration.” What is that supposed to prove. This is not in contradiction to global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing has been present for more than 100 years. “We can go about this point forever, but things should become a lot clearer once the present El Nino has run its course.” What exactly will allegedly happen? The recent El Nino had run its course months ago. Instead, La-Nina conditions have been present for multiple months already. “Until then, I suggest you have an exit strategy planned. Just, you know, to be safe and cover all your bases.” What’s with the innuendo? Sounds like a veiled threat. What’s your plan? Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 6:27 PM “I argued for one explanation stating that there was overwhelming available evidence for it…” There isn’t. There is only rationalization and confirmation bias. “…and then I compared this to the lack of evidence for alternative explanations.” If you don’t know the explanation, then lacking evidence for it is rather tautological. “And here comes the conspiracy fantasy.” A fantasy is something for which there is no reliable evidence. We have the Climategate emails. We’ve seen the manipulation of the data. We know the vast sums of money sloshing around. Those are all concrete data points. Perhaps there is no conspiracy, per se. But, there is plainly a lot of groupthink, and a convergence of interests. “Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing has been present for more than 100 years.” On the record, then. You are claiming that early 20th century warming was driven by the same process that drove later 20th century warming? Is that what you are claiming? Because, that is not what your peers are claiming. “What exactly will allegedly happen?” It will either A) resume the interrupted warming trend, B) continue the “pause”, or C) enter a cooling phase. I very much doubt (A). (B) would be bad enough for you. (C) would be extremely awkward, to say the least. “Sounds like a veiled threat.” That’s pretty bizarre. Do you think the AGW hypothesis will survive if the Earth reenters a cooling phase, as it has every ~60 years for at least two cycles now? I would have a backup plan, that’s all. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 7:45 PM “There isnt. There is only rationalization and confirmation bias.” Now, that possibly explains why you are misrepresenting my statements. “If you dont know the explanation, then lacking evidence for it is rather tautological.” What makes you think I didn’t know any alternative explanations that have been proposed? “A fantasy is something for which there is no reliable evidence. We have the Climategate emails. Weve seen the manipulation of the data. We know the vast sums of money sloshing around.” There is no reliable evidence for this. Just assertions, accusations, insinuations, and conjecture. “On the record, then. You are claiming that early 20th century warming was driven by the same process that drove later 20th century warming? Is that what you are claiming? Because, that is not what your peers are claiming.” I’m saying that greenhouse gas forcing also significantly contributed to the warming in the early 20th century. Solar activity also increased. Thus this climate driver contributed too. I’m not aware that this is really different from what my peers says. It’s not different from what is said in the last IPCC report, is it? Greenhouse gas forcing didn’t start in the 1950s or 1970s. “It will either A) resume the interrupted warming trend, B) continue the pause, or C) enter a cooling phase. I very much doubt (A). (B) would be bad enough for you. (C) would be extremely awkward, to say the least.” The claim about the allegedly “interrupted warming trend”, i.e., the so-called “pause” lacks 1.) a proper definition of the “pause”, based on reproducible scientific/statistical criteria and 2.) lack of statistical evidence of an interruption in the warming trend. Thus, the notion that something would have to resume is non-existent for me. Without evidence that global warming has “paused” nothing needs to “resume”. The same for B. Re C: Since radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is continuously increasing the likelyhood for entering a cooling phase is very low, even if the sun indeed went into a phase similar to the Maunder minimum. The negative radiative forcing change would have some counter-effect, but would be smaller in magnitude than the increase in radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. “Thats pretty bizarre. Do you think the AGW hypothesis will survive if the Earth reenters a cooling phase, as it has every ~60 years for at least two cycles now? I would have a backup plan, thats all.” I suppose with “cooling phase” you mean the apparent hiatus periods between about 1880 and 1920 and about 1940 and 1970? The latter is generally recognized to be largely caused by an increase in negative aerosol forcing. However, regardless of these hiatus periods, there has still been an overall warming trend over the whole century, whatever the explanation for these hiatus periods is. If such a cooling phase occurred again without any forcing (like aerosols, e.g. from strong volcanic eruptions) the effect of which we have principally understood to explain it, then maybe we have underestimated unforced variability in the oceans. But how would that empirically or logically contradict warming by anthropogenic greenhouse gases? It just would mean that warming would resume with full force once the ocean variability is in phase again with anthropogenic forcing. Sounds like a veiled threat. Thats pretty bizarre. Do you think the AGW hypothesis will survive if the Earth reenters a cooling phase, as it has every ~60 years for at least two cycles now? I would have a backup plan, thats all. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 7:47 PM The last two paragraphs are from the comment to which I replied. Remove then (in your mind at least). Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 7:49 PM With the one sentence being a quote by me, which had been cited. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 8:49 PM “Im saying that greenhouse gas forcing also significantly contributed to the warming in the early 20th century.” At precisely the same underlying rate, with uniform spacing between local maxima and minima, while CO2 concentration did not take off until mid-century. Okey, dokey. “The latter is generally recognized to be largely caused by an increase in negative aerosol forcing.” Yes, and ulcers are generally recognized to arise from stress, and dietary fat is bad for blood cholesterol, and supplementary vitamins beyond what your body needs will make you healthier, and so on and on. These are all things that were generally believed up until quite recently. They were not so. Yet, very qualified people nevertheless adopted them as truths without any verification. This is rationalization, not science. “Since radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is continuously increasing the likelyhood for entering a cooling phase is very low, even if the sun indeed went into a phase similar to the Maunder minimum.” Radiative forcing is subject to pushback from compensating feedbacks within the climate system. You guys really had no business going out on such a limb before you had seen confirming data of the effect. But, that’s your story and, I assume, you are sticking to it. We shall see… Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 11:09 AM CO2 increased from 280 ppm to about 310 ppm from pre-industrial to the mid-20th century. The CO2 increase translates to a radiative forcing by CO2 of about 0.54 W/m^2. This is already about twice as large as the solar radiative forcing between the Grand solar maximum period and Maunder minimum. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 11:10 AM What am I saying. About 2.5 as large. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:41 AM Bart says: “You cannot be blind to the fact that enormous sums of money are being exchanged for scientific testimony favorable to the AGW conjecture.” Prove it. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:57 PM Jan P Perlwitz @ January 6, 2017 at 11:09 AM More rationalization. You do not appear to comprehend the many implicit assumptions just in what you wrote in that paragraph. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:09 PM I comprehend that you have to offer nothing with any substance. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 4:02 PM If that is the case, then we are even. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:50 PM Bart says: “Do you think the AGW hypothesis will survive if the Earth reenters a cooling phase, as it has every ~60 years for at least two cycles now?” Of course it will survive — it’s already established. Natural variations aren’t going to change that, just as they haven’t changed it so far. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:05 PM “Verdict first, trial after!”, said the Red Queen. And now, you find yourself in a tangled web, grasping at straws to maintain the fiction you determined before the evidence was in. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 9:18 PM I’m starting to understand you, Bart. 1. You think you are a master of mathematics, even though you can’t do any. 2. You knowledge of the science is very weak. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:45 PM Whatever… barry says: January 5, 2017 at 4:41 PM That last quote is clearly a cynical fabrication. This commenter is not trustworthy. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:52 PM “That last quote is clearly a cynical fabrication. This commenter is not trustworthy.” – Senator Larry Craig, circa 2007 What a bunch of maroons. Are you really all so dull? This just in: Jonathan Swift endorses processing Irish babies into food. Film at 11. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 6:07 PM I’m still waiting for an answer what your alleged argument is. Are you seriously saying that scientists should not get paid for doing their work? barry says: January 6, 2017 at 10:32 AM No, not that one. This one How should science be funded? And are scientists supposed to work for free? Tobacco Scientist circa 1978 I call bull. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 2:01 PM LOL. Such intellectual candlepower. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:48 PM More insults from Bart, who never supplies any science whatsoever. Bart is the definition of fake news. barry says: January 7, 2017 at 9:12 PM LOL. Such intellectual candlepower. I’ll take an honest lackwit over a smart deceiver. You fabricated this: How should science be funded? And are scientists supposed to work for free? Tobacco Scientist circa 1978 Not just a lie, but a ‘clever’ lie, the very worst kind. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 4:57 AM Jan P Perlwitz says, January 5, 2017 at 1:21 PM: There is only evidence in science. And the evidence overwhelmingly points to that human activity has been a major cause of global warming observed since pre-industrial times, and the main cause for the warming since the mid-20th century. Strange how you people keep repeating this meme over and over, without ever actually showing us even a single piece from this “overwhelming” heap of evidence. Smacks of pure, unadulterated propaganda tactics and not much else. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 9:32 AM The assertion is a blatant lie. I have repeatedly cited scientific publications or data in various threads here where I participated to back up my statements, if it has been needed. Reply Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 2:09 PM Like what? Name ONE piece of observational evidence from the real Earth system that shows that our emissions of CO2 has caused ‘global warming’. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 6:55 PM You are asking the impossible from science. The request to present observations that show a causality is nonsense. Observations don’t show any causality ever. Causality statements are part of the theory that explains the object of scientific research. Such theory can make statements about what specific behavior observables should show, if a specific causality is present. If the observations show according behavior than they are interpreted to corroborate the theory and the causality statements of the theory. And they are taken as evidence in support of the theory. Kristian says: January 9, 2017 at 5:15 AM Jan P Perlwitz says, January 8, 2017 at 6:55 PM: You are asking the impossible from science. The request to present observations that show a causality is nonsense. It’s not me who claims the following (that’s you, Jan P. Perlwitz): “And the evidence overwhelmingly points to that human activity has been a major cause of global warming observed since pre-industrial times, and the main cause for the warming since the mid-20th century.” What ‘evidence’? And exactly how does this evidence ‘overwhelmingly’ point to our activity as a major cause of ‘global warming’? I assume that when claiming the existence of such evidence, apparently overwhelmingly pointing in a particular causal direction, you can actually produce at least ONE example … Or else I will have to agree with Bart when he calls your claimed “evidence” mere “rationalization and confirmation bias.” In fact, I would go further and call it mere “conjecture.” Observations dont show any causality ever. Of course they do. A tight and consistent lead-lag relationship over time between two related physical variables quite evidently points to a cause and effect connection. I’m not asking for more than this. Do you have such a connection. Like, say, +CO2 -> +T? In the real Earth system? David J Sanchez says: January 5, 2017 at 11:30 AM Also to be honest on this subject the amount of water vapor and solar activity are much more important linchpins in weather and climate. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 1:30 PM The water vapor in the atmosphere is not a climate driver. It doesn’t cause climate change. It is a dependent variable. Water vapor is strongly dependent on the temperature. It is very important for climate feedbacks, though. Solar irradiance is a climate driver, but solar activity has not increased significantly since the mid-20th century. It has decreased over the recent solar cycles, and it has even more decreased since the maximum of solar cycle 23. Some solar physicist say that the sun may go into a state in the near future next, which was similar to the Maunder minimum. Thus, the solar activity changes over recent decades would rather imply a cooling tendency of climate, which has not been observed. On the contrary. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 3:56 PM It’s called thermal inertia, dearee. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 4:44 PM Thermal inertia in the temperature response to what perturbation that occurred when? A response with thermal inertia would show the largest rate of change at the time of the perturbation and then asymptotically approach an equilibrium state with a decreasing rate of change. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:55 PM Not in a multi-reservoir system. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 6:12 PM You haven’t answered my question. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 1:57 PM We were talking about solar forcing. And, for Nate’s benefit, in a multi-reservoir system, past thermal excitation of one of the reservoirs can produce continual change in the others long after the excitation has ceased. It is like going from an RC circuit to an LRC one in electronics. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:13 PM You still haven’t answered my question. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 4:00 PM I think I did. The only question I saw was “Thermal inertia in the temperature response to what perturbation that occurred when?”, and the answer was the same as we have been discussing, variations in solar forcing. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 7, 2017 at 7:23 PM That was not clear. Solar activity increase until about the mid 20th century. After that it hasn’t changed much anymore. And for the recent solar cycles, there has been first a slight decrease; and a somewhat stronger decrease since the maximum of cycle 23. What is the evidence, based on which you claim that the increase in solar forcing caused the global warming trend after the hiatus period of about 1940-1970 as a delayed response of the temperature to the earlier increase in solar forcing? Jan P Perlwitz says: January 7, 2017 at 7:31 PM The last question needs some serious editing: What is the evidence, based on which you claim that the global warming trend after the hiatus period of about 1940-1970 was a delayed response of the temperature to the pre-mid 20th century increase in solar forcing? David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:47 PM And what does a “delayed response” mean? Does the extra energy circulate through some capacitors or something, waiting decades for discharge? Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:42 PM Jan – “What is the evidence, based on which you claim that the global warming trend after the hiatus period of about 1940-1970 was a delayed response of the temperature to the pre-mid 20th century increase in solar forcing?” The first line of evidence is that CO2 is not the driver. The pattern of warming was laid in well before CO2 could have been the major driver. Moreover, CO2 responds to temperature in such a way that, were CO2 in turn to significantly drive temperatures, there would be a positive feedback loop that could not be stabilized even by T^4 emission, and we would have reached a tipping point eons ago. Having eliminated that phenomenon as the driving force, we need to move on to investigate others. As the Sun is the ultimate source of all significant surface heating, it is very likely that the observed, very regular pattern of warming is a long term modal response of the Earth’s climate system to solar forcing, quite probably in conjunction with solar and lunar tidal mixing, IMO. That does not confirm it as the culprit. More investigation is needed. But, we cannot gain further knowledge as long as we are focused on the dead end of CO2 hysteria. DA – “Does the extra energy circulate through some capacitors or something, waiting decades for discharge?” Literally, no. But, analogously, yes. But, more like the distributed capacitance of a very long transmission line, with local propagation speed limited to very much less than the speed of light. We are dealing with a system with very long term modal responses. It is hubris, indeed, to imagine that we have diagnosed the characteristics of this response based on the very brief record of reliable data available to us. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 4:48 PM “The first line of evidence is that CO2 is not the driver. The pattern of warming was laid in well before CO2 could have been the major driver. Moreover, CO2 responds to temperature in such a way that, were CO2 in turn to significantly drive temperatures, there would be a positive feedback loop that could not be stabilized even by T^4 emission, and we would have reached a tipping point eons ago.” These are mere assertions, apparently based on your personal beliefs. Stating your personal beliefs is not evidence in science. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 5:42 PM No, this is what the temp/CO2 records show. There really is no doubt about it. Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 4:50 PM If the inertia is as much as that, to cause few decades delay, then itll apply to AGW too, and we’re really in trouble.. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:56 PM Yeah, maybe the warming will be 100% higher than what it’s been. OMG, 100% of 0 is… still 0. Nate says: January 6, 2017 at 12:27 PM bart ‘Not in a multi-reservoir system.’ Huh? Hows that? ‘OMG, 100% of 0 is still 0.’ ok now I know that you are just blowin smoke.. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:54 PM If you do not know, then you really should not be offering your opinions on the subject. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:46 PM Bart, warming of anything has not been 0. Except for the stratosphere. But then, a cooling stratosphere is one of the fundamental predictions of greenhouse theory. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:02 PM Take out the natural pattern which has been in evidence since well before CO2 could have even potentially been a major player, and there is very little left that could actually be driven by CO2. The hypothesis is a bust. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:45 PM Bart says: “Take out the natural pattern which has been in evidence since well before CO2 could have even potentially been a major player” What natural pattern? What are the natural causes of modern warming? Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:14 PM There are many candidates. But it is beside the point. You are still promoting an argumentum ad ignoratiam. Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 4:52 PM And ditto on what Jan says Reply Sunsettommy says: January 5, 2017 at 11:33 AM Ha ha, all the whining about a .02C difference,when the real issue is the PER DECADE warming rate,which is currently waaaay below the IPCC’s projected rate of .30C per decade. Satellite data show about a .13C per decade warming rate. Since .02-04C difference from 1998,is so very small,the AGW conjecture dies really easily. The IPCC is wrong,NO global warming anyway since it is confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 12:30 PM This is what the IPCC report says: “The global mean surface temperature change for the period 20162035 relative to 19862005 will likely be in the range of 0.3C to 0.7C (medium confidence). This assessment is based on multiple lines of evidence and assumes there will be no major volcanic eruptions or secular changes in total solar irradiance. Relative to natural internal variability, near-term increases in seasonal mean and annual mean temperatures are expected to be larger in the tropics and subtropics than in mid-latitudes (high confidence). {11.3}” (Working Group I Report “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis”, http://ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/, Summary for Police Makers, page 20) Thus, according to the IPCC report, the projected warming rate between the 20 year averages 1986-2005 and 2016-2035 is about 0.1 to 0.23 deg C per decade. What is the source for your wrong assertion that the warming rate projected by the IPCC was 0.3 deg. C per decade? Also, the difference between two individual years, 2016 and 1998, doesn’t say anything about the observed warming rate over a time period. And comparing this difference with the warming rate as specified in the IPCC report and drawing any conclusions from such a comparison is methodologically also totally wrong. Reply Sunsettommy says: January 5, 2017 at 5:53 PM Two examples of the .30C per decade statement from the IPCC,which never later disavow their projections in future reports. “For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1C per decade would be expected.” https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html “under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases,a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2C to 0.5C per decade), this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years” http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_spm.pdf Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 6:42 PM “For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.” How is a projection of a temperature increase of 0.2 deg. C per decade an example for a projection of a 0.3 deg. C. per decade? And the projection of an average temperature increase of 0.2 deg. C per decade has not been falsified so far. As for your second example, the one from the first IPCC report. You selectively cite the projections for Scenario A. There are also a Scenario B and C with a 0.2 deg. C and 0.1 deg. C per decade projected average temperature increase, respectively. Actual forcings after 1990 have not followed Scenario A. They have rather followed Scenario B. A proper evaluation of such projections requires that the projections are compared for the same forcing that has been observed. The observed surface temperature trend since 1990 is near 0.2 deg. C per decade. Also, there is nothing to “disavow”. The demand to “disavow” something sounds more like the desire for political inquisition. Science revises previous statements when new evidence requires this. This is part of the normal scientific process. Reply sod says: January 5, 2017 at 1:51 PM “Ha ha, all the whining about a .02C difference,when the real issue is the PER DECADE warming rate,which is currently waaaay below the IPCCs projected rate of .30C per decade.” You are utterly wrong. For a start, the “projected” rates are all for SURFACE temperature. Thanks Roy for giving fake news to those who understand absolutely nothing! Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 5, 2017 at 1:56 PM Wrong. I’m not that stupid, sod. I’m talking apples-to-apples…same atmospheric layer measured by the satellite versus in the models. But, since you insist on the accusation of “fake news”…buh-bye. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 2:25 PM What paper is that about which you are talking, where this comparison has been published? Reply Sunsettommy says: January 5, 2017 at 5:42 PM NONE of the Surface data does either,Sod. Reply Sunsettommy says: January 5, 2017 at 6:09 PM Sod,consider that the “surface” is not static,but highly variable, The Surface temperature data can be from below sea level (Death Valley) to 6,000 feet (Denver). Satellite temperature data is from the LOWER Troposphere region,quoting Roy: “The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December 2016 was +0.24 deg.” Think about it,Sod. Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 12:29 PM Arctic Temperatures Continue for Much of the Lower 48. http://www.intellicast.com/Video/Player.aspx?id=76b6cace-31a8-4e38-819c-88e487167d17 Reply Ray Blinn says: January 5, 2017 at 1:58 PM Obviously the warmest years in recent history have been right after El Nino years. With 2016 being 0.02 deg C higher than 1998 and the time span between these two events being 18 years the trend line between El Nino peaks is 0.00111 deg C per year. Assuming the trend continues, the earth will be 0.111 deg C warmer 100 years from now. Does that justify the extreme measures some on the left advocate? I personally think asphalt parking lots and masonry buildings have a greater affect on temperature readings than CO2. The heat island effect is well documented. Most of our land based temperature readings are from urban areas. While they claim that these temperatures have been corrected to cancel the heat island effect their correction factor is suspect especially since their readings don’t correlate well with satellite data. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 2:31 PM You forgot to provide the information what the confidence interval is of the trend estimate that you derived using merely two data points. It’s totally unscientific to estimate a trend like this. But whatever, as long as it’s serves as support for some political statement? Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 5:14 PM Please inform your sympathizers upthread. Reply Nate says: January 6, 2017 at 1:22 PM bart You seem to think I would advocate finding the trend this way, with two data points? Hardly. Never made that argument, nor has David A. Reply Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 1:53 PM Actually, you did, even if you did not realize it. Nate says: January 7, 2017 at 11:40 AM Show me where…again blowin smoke.. You tend to paint everyone who disagrees with you as an idiot…whatever supports ur ego.. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:01 PM I merely observe. Objectively speaking, I am a very smart guy. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:44 PM Lots of people are “smart guys.” But you still have to provide data and evidence and analysis, which you never do. Or maybe you’re not as smart as you think you are. mandrewa says: January 5, 2017 at 3:46 PM Zeke Hausfather et al. have published a new paper on measuring sea surface temperatures. See http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601207.full. Based on data from buoys floating in the ocean they report an increase of 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade over the last several decades. That’s the same number the satellites are giving. The correlation between the satellite and the buoy data is very strong. Reply Entropic man says: January 5, 2017 at 4:05 PM The linear trend for UAH6.0 is 0.45C since 1979. That is 0.12C per decade. http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/every/plot/uah6/every/trend As you say, the same as the buoy data. Reply michael hart says: January 5, 2017 at 6:10 PM Then it’s a pity that the alarmists wanted more than 0.2C per decade, isn’t it? G’Day, EM. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:30 AM Who said anyone wanted > 0.2 C/dec warming? Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 4:49 PM The trend of 0.12C/decade in Hausfather’s SST analysis is for the period Jan 1997 to Dec 2015. That’s a higher trend than UAH v6 for the same period, which is 0.014C/decade. The trend for UAH5.6 for the same period is 0.12C/decade. Reply mandrewa says: January 5, 2017 at 5:23 PM In an earlier comment, on Jan. 3rd, Dr. Spencer said, Maybe in each monthly update I should have the headline: “Warming Rate Still Only 0.12 C/decade” But that would get a little boring. So I believe this means he thinks the trend is 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade. If you look at the satellite and buoy data they are strongly correlated. Every move in the satellite data is echoed by a move in the buoy data. One could hypothesize in fact that air temperatures over the ocean, at the level that the satellites measure them, are tightly constrained by the temperature of the ocean surface. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:30 PM Dr Spencer is referring to the UAHv6 trend from 1979 to present. 0.12C/decade The paper you have cited is referring to the trend in SSTs from 1997 to December 2015. 0.12C/decade UAHv6 trend for the same period as in the paper you cited is only 0.014C/decade – 1 tenth the rate of the SSTs per the paper you cited. However, the older version of UAH – v5.6 – matches the SST trend rate for the same period. However, all this is purely circumstantial, or coincidental, for various reasons. I was just pointing out that you had not noticed the periods were different – and what that meant. Reply mandrewa says: January 5, 2017 at 5:56 PM Well, good point. Thank you. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:33 PM To put it another way, Hausfather finds a trend of 0.12C/decade SSTs during the so-called ‘pause’ period. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 6:05 PM Which includes a large El Nino. We will see what happens when the Nino has passed. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 6:50 PM Curiously, I never have seen anyone of the “Hiatus” crowd complaining that the alleged “Hiatus” period had a very strong El Nino at the start of the alleged “Hiatus” (and a dominance of La Ninas at the end of the period). Suddenly, El Nino matters. How times change. fonzarelli says: January 5, 2017 at 8:36 PM Not true, Dr. P., there’s plenty of disagreement among sceptics as to whether the hiatus began in ’98 or ’03. Even Lord M. with his “pause posts” over at Watts’ went there in discussions. At any rate, Bart is right. It could very well be a whole new ball game in a couple years time. Comments like yours may well end up like moss covered tombstones sitting around the archived graveyards of climate blogs… Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:53 AM Jan P. Perlwitz…”I never have seen anyone of the Hiatus crowd complaining that the alleged Hiatus period had a very strong El Nino ” Jan…you need to get with the program. That alleged warming hiatus came straight out of the IPCC 2012 review. That’s what they called it despite Barry’s denial, leading him to find a quote that did not include the word hiatus. All the Ens are matched with following LNs except 2016 and it’s a-comin’. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 9:47 AM What is that supposed to prove that the word “hiatus” appears in the IPCC report? The context and what is actually said about it matters. “Skeptics” claim that global warming had stopped in 1998 or in 2002 or 2003 (or whatever start year is convenient for them at a moment). They also often misrepresent what the IPCC report says about this and suggest that the IPCC report supported such claims. However, this is not what the IPCC report says. According to the IPCC report, there is a robust global warming trend over multiple decades. In the IPCC report, the “hiatus” is taken as evidence that there was “substantial interannual to decadal variability” despite the “robust multi-decadal warming”. The IPCC report also talks about the high uncertainty of short-terms trends such as the one from 1998-2012 and the sensitivity of those trend estimates to the choice of the start and end year (which means that the statistics based on such short term periods aren’t robust): “Despite the robust multi-decadal warming, there exists substantial interannual to decadal variability in the rate of warming, with several periods exhibiting weaker trends (including the warming hiatus since 1998) (Figure TS.1). The rate of warming over the past 15 years (19982012; 0.05 [0.05 to +0.15] C per decade) is smaller than the trend since 1951 (19512012; 0.12[0.08 to 0.14] C per decade). Trends for short periods are uncertain and very sensitive to the start and end years. For example, trends for 15-year periods starting in 1995, 1996, and 1997 are 0.13 [0.02 to 0.24] C per decade, 0.14 [0.03 to 0.24] C per decade and 0.07 [0.02 to 0.18] C per decade, respectively.” (page 37 in The Physical Science Basis) All of this about the “hiatus” in the IPCC report refers solely to the surface temperature trend, but not to any other variables. Certainly not to the warming of the oceans. Further down in the IPCC report, it is then discussed whether climate models were able to reproduce such “hiatus” periods (page 61ff), particularly the one from 1998-2012. Also, whatever the IPCC report says, you seem to confuse it with the bible. The statements in the IPCC report are not canonical “truth”. Instead they may be flawed and they can be criticized like any scientific study or review paper, and they are subject to revision, if new evidence requires this. barry says: January 6, 2017 at 10:09 AM All the Ens are matched with following LNs except 2016 and its a-comin. That’s simply not true. Sometimes its years before a Nina forms – no sooner than average. And sometimes el Nino is followed by another Nino. Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:55 AM barry..”Hausfather finds a trend of 0.12C/decade SSTs during the so-called pause period.” Any idiot could find a trend on woodfortrees if he knew how to manipulate the parameters. The IPCC did not see a trend, only you and Hausfather. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 9:55 AM The IPCC didn’t find anything, since the IPCC doesn’t do the research. Every IPCC report is based on the research studies available at the time of publication of the report (or more precise, at the time of some cut-off date before publication of the report). The next IPCC report will also include the revised temperature analyses by Karl et al. and Hausfather et al. barry says: January 6, 2017 at 10:27 AM Gordon, you are seriously not following the conversation. I skimmed the paper. No idea if it’s sound or shit. I didn’t get any further than pointing out that the 2 trends cited have different time periods (one trend period is 19 years, and the other is exactly twice as long). If you have an issue with any of the quoted trend rates take it up with someone who is wedded to them. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:29 AM Just because the long-term trends are the same doesn’t imply correlation. That’s a separate question. Reply AlanF says: January 5, 2017 at 5:19 PM How much of heat island effect is due to increased dew poibt from water vapor arising from combustion of fuel? I think it should be possible to distinguish this from other uhi processes Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:33 PM What would be the point? To highlight that the urban heat island effect is man-made? Reply Fred says: January 5, 2017 at 5:20 PM Considering that average global temperature is thought to have fallen ~0.2 C from the 1940s to the 1970s, it can be said that there’s been no statistically significant warming for the last 75 years. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:40 PM Except that this is not the case. The linear trend since 1940 to present is statistically significant by a wide margin, regardless of which surface data set is used. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:41 PM Eg, Met office: 0.091 C / decade (+/- 0.018) Reply Fred says: January 7, 2017 at 3:13 AM Put away your hockeystick, boy. Reply barry says: January 7, 2017 at 9:16 PM You’re mixing your talking points up. Hockeysticks are about the millennial record from proxies, not the centennial record from instruments. And you’re wrong about the statistical significance. But you don’t really know what you’re talking about, so leave it alone and talk about something you do know about. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:44 PM Pictures are helpful: http://tinyurl.com/ze5y9dp Reply Ceist says: January 5, 2017 at 7:32 PM RSS Press release Atmospheric temperature measured by satellites sets new record in 2016 http://images.remss.com/papers/rsstech/Jan_5_2017_news_release.pdf Reply Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:11 PM David Appell I would like to respond to your comment way above (easier to find down here). YOU: “Norman wrote: The rest of the warming is from other causes. What other causes?” Your post was in response to an article that calculated CO2 sensitivity at 0.43 C. You also posted: “Norman: But the surface temperature increase is 0.9 C, twice that papers purported climate sensitivity to CO2. Yet CO2 hast even increased by 50% yet, let alone double” Here are other causes of warming or cooling besides CO2 levels. http://www.universetoday.com/28876/aerosols-could-be-responsible-for-artic-warming/ Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 6:06 PM I mentioned black carbon in another reply, as globally the second largest forcing after CO2. Reply Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:15 PM David Appell Also Global Sulfur Dioxide has declined http://www.atmos-chem-phys.org/11/1101/2011/acp-11-1101-2011.pdf Look at Figure 3 page 1107 Top graph, this one is global emission of SO2. It has declined. It has increased in China but decreased over the globe. This is the aerosol that causes a cooling effect and it is down since 1970’s peak. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:26 AM I’m not sure aerosols have declined globally since 2005, when the paper was written. Is China cleaner since then? What about India? The Middle East? China and the US are only small fractions of the globe. We need to see data past 2005. BTW, the (negative) aerosol forcing also depends on the latitude of the aerosols, because that determines how much sunlight they reflect. Unlike the well-mixed gases CO2, CH4 etc, it’s much more involved to calculate the global influence of aerosols than just looking at a graph. Reply Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:18 PM David Appell Have you played with these calculators? http://www.geo.umass.edu/courses/climat/radbal.html Change the global albedo by just 1% and you get all the warming since the beginning of the industrial age. Since we have no good empirical data on albedo variance over time it would not be very scientific to rule its effects out and just magically assume this value does not change over time. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:20 AM So you have no data on albedo changes. I don’t either. But we know that aGHGs cause warming, and it’s warming that we see happening. Two big influences on albedo are: melting Arctic sea ice and NH snow cover –> lowers albedo planetary greening –> lowers albedo What things happening to you see that would increase planetary albedo? Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 1:15 PM David Appell YOU: “What things happening to you see that would increase planetary albedo?” Two things I can think of would. Increase of water on the land surface (more or bigger lakes overall) as water has a very low albedo. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo More forests could do it. Cloud changes are a really big factor, if one of the long term natural variations causes long term cloud cover variations you could easily change the Earth’s albedo 1%. My point with this, is without the information how can one make a scientific claim. Should they not monitor albedo as much as CO2 concentrations since both effect surface temperatures? Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 1:17 PM David Appell Sorry I did not answer your question correctly. You said what could increase albedo not decrease. More deserts could increase it, crops in place of forests would have an increase in albedo, clouds can definitely increase albedo if you get more of them. Just to name a few possibilities. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:56 PM Sure, all these things could* affect climate. But you’re just speculating. Where is the data showing they have changed albedo? David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 6:04 PM BTW, a paper published a few years ago on melting Arctic sea ice: “We find that the Arctic planetary albedo has decreased from 0.52 to 0.48 between 1979 and 2011, corresponding to an additional 6.4 0.9 W/m2 of solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region since 1979.” and “this albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that is 25% as large as that due to the change in CO2 during this period.” K. Pistone, I. Eisenman, and V. Ramanathan (2014). Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 111, 3322-3326. http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/papers/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2014.pdf Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 9:53 PM David Appell Maybe you noticed in the article you linked to that they also are using CERES data. It must be of some value if various Climate Scientists are using the data in their studies. YOUR POST: “Sure, all these things could affect climate. But youre just speculating. Where is the data showing they have changed albedo?” Now you are talking my language. That is the problem, where is the data showing global albedo values over time? Slight changes in the value can cause all the warming or cooling seen in temperature records alone so you would think it would be very well researched and data collected. I have read they try to establish a global albedo with Earthshine data but it has some flaws. Here is a link that talks about it. They use CERES (again) and show the trend has not changed from 2000 to 2005 which is what the global CERES mean graphs show. Not much change in Net Radiant energy striking the Earth’s surface. https://skepticalscience.com/The-albedo-effect.html David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:41 PM Norman, again, it’s not CERES that I object to, it’s using its data without knowing what you’re doing. The satellite is very complicated. Even the experts having trouble getting it right. The Pistone paper says “A detailed discussion of the sources of bias and uncertainty of both CERES and sea ice data may be found in Supporting Information.” Have you corrected for any biases in CERES data? Corrected for instrument drift? Is there any meaningful satellite drift? If you get your results published somewhere decent, I’d definitely take a look. But nothing is going to be resolved via blog comments, and frankly I have stuff of my own I’d rather work on that trying to become an expert in CERES data. Good luck. Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:22 PM David Appell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_energy_budget#/media/File:The-NASA-Earth%27s-Energy-Budget-Poster-Radiant-Energy-System-satellite-infrared-radiation-fluxes.jpg I am sure you are most familiar with the global energy budget images. Note if the radiant energy would remain the same you could still get a warming or cooling Earth based upon any potential change in the surface cooling mechanisms that are not radiative (evaporation and thermals). Changes in these can also lead to warming and cooling and either could be based on natural long term cycles scientist are only now discovering like PDO, ADO, etc. These long term cycles affect wind patterns and ocean heating patterns. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:17 AM Natural variations are from energy in the system moving around, not energy being created. AGW, on the other hand, means that the surface, lower atmo and oceans are gaining heat that would otherwise be radiated to space. Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 1:10 PM David Appell And yet CERES graphs do not show this energy (heat gain), they show NO increase in energy reaching the surface for 16 years (which is supported by the satellite temperature readings). The global Downwelling IR shows no increase in 16 years (all-sky), the one study that showed an increase in downwelling IR was conducted under Clear-sky conditions which the CERES graphs support. If the natural variations do not remove surface energy at the same rate as a previous rate (changes in wind patterns or ocean currents) the globe will warm with no net increase in radiant energy. Not sure you are following my logic on that point. If you have less evaporation going on globally so that rather than the surface losing 78 W/m^2 by this process, it only loses 76 W/m^2 you would have a warmer surface that could then warm the measured air above and show a global warming signal. You do realize that the surface has a Net positive radiant energy of about 107 W/m^2. If this was not removed by the other processes (evaporation or thermals) the surface would get much warmer and the air above would also increase considerably in temperature. Any change to the removal of energy from the surface can give you a global warming signal in the air temperature. The result would be a total energy the same but you would have warmer air near the surface and the air at higher elevations of the Troposphere would be cooler. You would have to monitor several air layers over time to see if this was taking place. As far as I know the only real significant consistent measurements are of the air a couple meters above the surface and some of ocean surface. If you know of other consistent measurements, please share, I want to update my understanding. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:30 PM Norman, when you refer to graphs and studies, I’d appreciate if you cited them. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:54 PM Norman, you mean your CERES graphs. I don’t accept them as definitive. I’ve already explained why. Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 9:32 PM David Appell Once again they are not my CERES graphs. I did not compile raw data and create the graphs based upon such data. The site itself does all the graphing. Have you gone to it? https://ceres-tool.larc.nasa.gov/ord-tool/jsp/EBAFSFCSelection.jsp Click “Visualize Data” It is set on Global Mean. The graphs are done by the CERES program not me. You have not explained “why” not at all. You said I was not qualified to make graphs on raw data since I did not know what I was doing. So I didn’t do this. Your explanation is not a very good one. Just go to the link and look. When you click the “Visualize Data” tab and it brings up a series of graphs for you does that mean that they are your” graphs? Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 9:37 PM David Appell Please take the time to read this article. The authors used CERES data as one of their sources to compile the Global Energy budget. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2634.1 David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:00 PM Norman, yet again, it’s not CERES that I doubt, it’s your ability to get useful information from the raw, unadjusted satellite data. Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 9:42 AM David Appell Maybe again you are completely wrong. I am NOT getting the raw, unadjusted satellite data. Why do you repeat this false statement over and over? The CERES tool itself is generating the graphs. One would hope the team in charge of the data does know what to do with the data before they create it in graphic form. Your idiotic behavior on this point is very strange and unworthy of anyone seeking the Truth. Unscientific illogical thought process goes with your false posts based on absolutely nothing. I still think you post them hoping you can sway anyone who might look at the CERES graphs with a false thought process and influence behavior. I really do not know why you perpetuate your falsehood on this topic. What does it benefit you? It makes you look very dishonest and deceptive. Is that the image you are trying to project on this blog? Ball4 says: January 7, 2017 at 10:48 AM Norman – You ARE using the raw data straight from CERES site without applying the recommended adjustments in the CERES team own publications. The CERES raw data has to be calibrated and some of their oldest data is as they point out (in extreme detail!) uncalibratable to surface observed conditions. Your task is to show that you have properly calibrated CERES raw data & complied with each of their cautionary notes to users. This is no small task to get your CI meaningful as they do. By the way, as a check, in your 9:37pm link: “There is a TOA imbalance of 6.4 W m−2 from CERES data and this is outside of the realm of current estimates of global imbalances (Willis et al. 2004; Hansen et al. 2005; Huang 2006).” Confirming your use of raw data is debatable. There has been additional work and new publications showing better calibrations based on ARGO surface thermometer data directly from the CERES team (see Loeb 2016). Also, you discuss global down welling measured by instrumentation looking up as if it is from CERES which is a TOA instrument looking down. You do not explain how your interpretation of down welling is meaningful within CI. Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 1:15 PM Ball4 I am not using any data. I do not know where the data comes from. I am hoping the CERES team does the proper calibrations on their own data before producing graphs of such data. I am not even looking at their raw data. I am clicking on their own resource “Visualize Data” which produces graphs. If the graphs they provide are not accurate or properly calibrated then it would be up to the CERES team to correct the data to allow visitors to their site to get valid graphs from them. Again on your final point: “Also, you discuss global down welling measured by instrumentation looking up as if it is from CERES which is a TOA instrument looking down. You do not explain how your interpretation of down welling is meaningful within CI.” I again am only going by what data the website provides. I am not making any assumptions on how it was obtained and am hoping the CERES team is doing a good job of getting the information correctly before they create graphs of it. I would like you to provide an answer as to why you think I am the one using “raw data” from CERES? What does my link to their webpage make you think that is what I am doing? Please explain, thanks. Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 1:27 PM Ball4 It appears someone has already done a study of the accuracy of the CERES calculated surface fluxes vs actual measured values. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/21/the-tao-calculated-surface-datasets/ Willis Eschenbach believes they have a achieved a relatively close match for calculated values. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JD008159/full This one also discusses problems with early algorithms and how they have improved. This article is from 2007 I would think that they would continue to improve their product over time to reflect as accurately as possible what is going on with energy fluxes. Even if some errors remain in the calculations it would not really matter as the graphs are time series and would all be using the same algorithms to calculate their values. Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 1:33 PM Ball4 From reading about the surface fluxes provided by the CERES site I can positively state you are incorrect when you say this is “raw data”. The surface fluxes are derived values from the raw satellite data. The surface fluxes are model calculated values that try to get the values as close as possible to empirically measured values on the ground. Really I have zero comprehension on what you or David Appell are claiming when you state I am using CERES “raw data” to build some graphs. Ball4 says: January 7, 2017 at 2:15 PM Norman – Quote your stuff directly from the CERES team, only then you will find the correct user cautions. You will have to do your own study to compute CI determine if your interpretations are meaningful. Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 3:20 PM Ball4 I do not think I would need to do my own study to calculate a confidence interval anymore than you would if you posted a global temperature graph or linked to one. It is up to the party generating the graphs to perform such tasks. They provide the graph and I take it as is. I read material concerning how they obtain the data for the graphs and it does seem rigorous with frequent corrections to make the data even better. So if I link you to a GISS global temperature graph you would require I go to their database, pull up all the data make my own graphs and somehow come up with a confidence interval to satisfy you? I think your demands are not very valid and I am not even sure what they are based upon. If The CERES graphs are invalid and are not reflecting reality then that would be a flaw in the team generating the graphs and not with me. They are the ones who should do correct adjustments on their data before they present it to the Public for consumption. I think you are off on the wrong tangent with your arguments and I still am not sure what valid reasoning they are based upon. Ball4 says: January 7, 2017 at 6:40 PM “It is up to the party generating the graphs to perform such tasks.” It is up to the authors interpreting the data such as you; the reader should not need, can not, will not assume those duties. “So if I link you to a GISS global temperature graph you would require..” Sure, if GISS issued the same cautions to data users as does CERES team and it was well known the GISS data was unbalanced by 6 W/m^2 when there is much more precise data to which balance calibration is available as I found for you researching your own posted link (to TFK09). “I think your demands are not very valid…” Then you haven’t bothered to research the CERES Team cautions to data downloaders, it only takes 20-30 minutes of study Norman but a lot of work thereafter. You as the author needs build credibility not me by doing the work; I am not offering an interpretation of the CERES Team data, you are. DA has made enough suggestions you are already on notice. The CERES data is not invalid, just not completely calibrated to a reasonable balance CI as they caution users. You are generating the graphs and then offering an interpretation which is unfounded shown simply by spending 20-30 minutes reading CERES literature easily found non-paywalled on the web. “I still am not sure what valid reasoning they are based upon.” Pointed out Loeb 2016 is a good starting point to find a ton of the CERES Team own valid reasoning. You do that reasonably well enough then maybe DA will be forced pay more attention to your interpretations. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:36 PM Sure Norman, perhaps you aren’t using raw data. But I still won’t trust you. I’m hardly going to spend my time piecing together the CERES claims you’ve made, or try to replicate all your calculations, or try to replicate your result. Want to begin to be taken seriously? Publish. Let some experts review your findings first. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 4:50 AM Ball4 says, January 7, 2017 at 10:48 AM: Norman You ARE using the raw data straight from CERES site without applying the recommended adjustments in the CERES team own publications. No, he’s not. He’s using officially published CERES EBAF Ed2.8 data. That’s not “raw data”. That is a finished product. Sorry, mate. There’s a very simple way for you to find out whether I’m right or wrong about this, Ball4. Just write Norman Loeb and ask him. I’m sure you’re capable of tracking down his email address. Ball4 says: January 8, 2017 at 8:53 AM Hi Kristian – I’ve read Dr. Loeb’s published paper(s), there is no need to contact him as his team writes clearly on the subject of cautioning CERES data users on their products. Once users follow all the cautions calibrating the satellite data to surface instruments, interpretations of results can be made meaningful within CIs. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 2:07 PM Ball4, I’ve also read them and cannot for the life of me find a quote where it says anything about the EBAF Ed2.8 product somehow not being a final dataset (“raw data” in situ validated, calibrated, corrected and adjusted before officially published), not to be used in climatic studies. And you have yet to provide such a quote, even after having been asked umpteen times. So yes, I fear it’s time for you to write Loeb himself to ask him what he’s actually saying about this matter, Ball4. So stop your incessant trolling on this. Put up or shut up! Ball4 says: January 8, 2017 at 3:24 PM And you have yet to provide such a quote.. Kristian I have. I am not the user of the CERES data, YOU are. The CERES team cautions are directed at the users not the readers. Nice try at getting me to do the work you need to do. Ive spent cocktail hour time, posted exact quotes, ref. cites, links, and clips pointing you in the right directions to fact find. I can just read the CERES Team work instead of you. Dont need your stuff, if you want to contribute, more work is needed by YOU not me. What you can do to show your data download is as you claim final calibration is replicate results in Table 4 in Loeb 2016: Trends in daytime and daytimenighttime LW TOA flux for January 2003December 2014 and over 30S30 for Terra and Aqua, including CIs. Absent that, no critical, informed reader can in any way justify you have meaningful results within CI extending CERES Team work from your CERES raw data downloads to date. Nice looking graphs though. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 4:25 PM Still no quote!? Still your unsupported assertions only … Write Loeb, Ball4. Ask him. Or do you want me to do it for you? Ball4 says: January 8, 2017 at 4:37 PM “Or do you want me to do it for you?” Do it for yourself Kristian, ask him professionally for the help you need to replicate his Team’s 2016 Table 4 including CIs. Then show him your extension (without CIs) to his Team’s work and ask if your results are in any way meaningful. Be sure to let us know what you hear back & show us your completed replication. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 4:43 PM I’ve (…) posted exact quotes (…) Hilarious. You have done no such thing. Never a single quote provided. Even when specifically asked. And that’s your problem. Because now you’re evidently forced to flat out lie about it. Well, you just keep digging. The CERES team cautions are directed at the users not the readers. Don’t worry. As you’ll notice, there are no specific cautions about the published All-Sky ToA OLR anomaly values. I am not the user of the CERES data, YOU are. Yes, and I know it’s good, highly precise, thus both usable and applicable. Loeb himself has confirmed that many times. He’s even used his own data (duh!) on multiple occasions, written several papers based on this particular data. So what is your problem with it? Why is this such a big deal to you? You’re clearly wrong about this. You have fundamentally misunderstood this entire issue, Ball4. You just need to live with it and move on. It’s not the end of the world. BTW, do you want me to ask Loeb – on your behalf – whether the EBAF Ed2.8 data as officially published on the CERES webpage is simply “raw data” as you claim? Like no processing steps whatsoever to get to level 3B? https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/order_data.php You are a clown, Ball4. Ball4 says: January 8, 2017 at 5:22 PM “do you want me to ask Loeb – on your behalf – whether the EBAF Ed2.8 data as officially published on the CERES webpage is simply “raw data” as you claim?” Yes professionally actually, it doesn’t include CIs so raw for instance. Let us know. Show him your nice graph of CERES data and OLR results with no CIs and ask if your work is meaningful. Be especially sure to point out Kristian’s use of the CERES data pre-Jan. 2003. “You have done no such thing. Never a single quote provided.” I found and quoted Loeb 2016 for Kristian last summer and apparently earlier. Extensive multithread discussions Kristian conveniently forgets but the internet remembers. Still to date no Table 4 replicated results with CI from Kristian, just pretzel twisting (Dr. Spencer term) from Kristian. This ought to be easy, almost trivial, for Kristian seeking to meaningfully extend CERES team work on OLR. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/08/observational-evidence-of-the-greenhouse-effect-at-desert-rock-nevada/#comment-221480 Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:28 PM David Appell Weather phenomena can create things like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_(Pacific_Ocean) It seems a persistent high stopped normal wind patterns that would have caused ocean water to mix leaving a warm blob in the Pacific. Ocean water mixing can have a significant effect on global temperatures. If warm ocean water remains on the surface and is not mixed by steady winds it can act to warm the atmosphere. Just letting you know many things can change global temperatures. Other possibilities are that the adjusted temperature charts are not accurate and may be biased by scientists believing by producing them they will save a future world (passion in their objectives). I think there are multiple possiblities to explain warming that do not involve CO2. Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:41 AM 100% Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:15 AM Norman, I’m very well aware that there are other influences on climate than aGHGs. The Blog and ENSOs and such are energy shifting around, not energy being created. You wrote: “I think there are multiple possiblities to explain warming that do not involve CO2.” Such as? Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 12:59 PM David Appell Yes, true “warm blob” and ENSO do not create energy but they do impact the air temperature which is what is being measured. I know you trust the ocean temperature plots with a few buoys taking temperatures that vary by the hundredth of a degree, but I am skeptical of these measurements. But if the energy that would be going down into the deeper ocean (maybe changing its temperature a few hundredths of a degree) is released into the air, it can increase global air temperatures as long as such conditions persist and that is what is being measured, not total energy content of the entire system. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:53 PM Norman wrote: “I know you trust the ocean temperature plots with a few buoys taking temperatures that vary by the hundredth of a degree, but I am skeptical of these measurements.” Actually there are about 3000 ARGO buoys, and when I looked up information about the instruments they carry, the temperature measurements we accurate to 0.005 C, IIRC. Of course ocean heat can warm the air — see, especially ENSOs. Where do you think all the added heat to the ocean is coming from?? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File:Ocean_Heat_Content_(2012).png Just in the last 11.5 years, the top half (0-2000 m) of the ocean has gained heat at a rate of 330 trillion Watts. Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 11:53 PM No responce, Norman? ClimateChange4realz says: January 11, 2017 at 1:38 PM The heating is due to the warming of ocean currents such as the amo and pdo over the last 100 years or so. Just another natural cycle. Nothing new here, even David apells understanding of climate science . Moving on Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:38 PM David Appell Also the Southern Hemisphere receives more solar energy than the Northern (check up CERES to confirm what I am stating) Yet the Southern Hemisphere is cooler than the Northern. http://profhorn.aos.wisc.edu/wxwise/AckermanKnox/chap14/climate_spatial_scales.html Southern Hemisphere just about 2 C cooler than the Northern yet the difference in peak energy received by each hemisphere’s summer is 20 watt/m^2 more in the Southern Hemisphere summer vs Northern Hemisphere summer. This reality between hemispheres and radiation amounts shows that there is a lot more to temperature than radiant energy alone. The greater surface water in the Southern Hemisphere keeps the air temperature from getting as warm. It is 5 C difference between the summers yet the Southern Hemisphere is getting 20 more W/m^2 in its summer. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:11 AM Norman, the SH is warming slower than the NH because it has more ocean on it, which moderates temperature change. The NH is 61% ocean, while the SH is 81% ocean. 57% of total ocean surface area is in the SH. Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 1:02 AM Two storms will meet on the Gulf of Mexico. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/lgb7mvsw8x5k.png Reply Tim Wells says: January 6, 2017 at 2:26 AM The sun is about to hibernate. The thing to watch is the Atlantic ocean going into a negative cycle as it did in 2010 and brought a massively cold winter to the UK. Global warming is a scam, I found while working for a Carbon management company in 2006. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:46 AM Tim Wells…”The sun is about to hibernate. The thing to watch is the Atlantic ocean …” Who cares about the Atlantic, we have been freezing out here on the Pacific coast of Canada where record lows for December were just established. Environment Canada is talking about this entire winter setting records for cold. The record cold for December in Vancouver is now a week into January. Reply Tim Wells says: January 6, 2017 at 5:58 AM Whether the Pacific or the Atlantic, sea temperatures are going to show conclusively the world cooling. They are nothing more than large batteries storing energy, now the sun is cooling. These two large batteries are dropping in temperature. Being in Britain I am more concerned with the Atlantic, as it has kept us warm in winter the last 20 years, with the exception of 2010. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:07 AM The ocean will keep warming, as it has been doing for decades now. The Sun is a minor influence on climate change. Now it’s about the GHGs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File:Ocean_Heat_Content_(2012).png Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 11, 2017 at 1:41 PM David says: “The sun Is a minor influence in climate change” The sun controls climate change of all planets of our solar system and its energy makes up 99.8 % of the volume of our solar system. What do you think caused climate change before man was around? ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:30 AM The solar wind accelerated because the wind in the upper atmosphere also accelerate. http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/latest2day.imagemap?312,111 https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/06/0300Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-84.31,58.11,452 Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:32 AM Sorry. The solar wind accelerated, so the wind in the upper atmosphere also accelerate. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:29 PM Says what? What does this have to do with climate change? Reply Hans Dampf says: January 6, 2017 at 3:36 AM Are the old temperatures the real or the manipulated? I think you know they changed old temperatures…and call it adjustment or something… Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:43 AM Hans Dampf…”Are the old temperatures the real or the manipulated?” NOAA has recently adjusted the recent historical record in an attempt to remove the 15 year warming hiatus from 1998 – 2012 reported by the IPCC. Phil Jones of CRU bragged in the Climategate emails that he used Michael Mann’s hide-the-decline trick on temperatures. He refused to release his data for independent audit. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 1:45 PM Smear and lies by Gordon Robertson. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 2:28 PM Jan…”Smear and lies by Gordon Robertson”. there’s none so blind as those who will not see https://web.archive.org/web/20130201082455/http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/weather_stations.html Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:44 PM There is nothing under the link that proves your smear and lies from your previous comment valid claims. fonzarelli says: January 6, 2017 at 3:40 PM Jan, i’ve got news for you… Gordon is more left leaning than you will ever hope to be. Folks, if you’ve ever wanted to see what a “curcular firing squad” looks like, this is it… (gordon, sorry about that; no real intent to disparage, but haven’t we all had enough of the shallow argumentation of jan p. ?) David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 9:58 PM Jan provides plenty of substantial comments. I don’t think think I’ve ever seen one from you. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:13 PM Jan has only offered misdirection and rationalization. Fonzie has his eyes wide open, while yours are shut tight. Hard to see anything with your eyes closed. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:28 PM Jan has responded with far, far more science than you ever have, Bart. (That’s easy, since your responses contain zero science and rely on insults and name calling.) He’s a welcome contributor to this blog. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:13 PM Hans: The raw temperatures are adjusted to remove biases. How would you prefer to handle those biases? Reply Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 4:51 PM And, when did you stop beating your wife? Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:42 PM No scientific reply, AGAIN. A batting average of 0.000 Reply bernard says: January 6, 2017 at 4:52 AM http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html Reply WizGeek says: January 6, 2017 at 8:47 AM To account for cyclic components, use a polynomial trend line rather than a linear trend line. Reply Phyte_On says: January 6, 2017 at 8:53 AM According to the surface thermometers was is the rate of warming from end of 1998 thru 2016? How much has it warmed in this 18 year period according to the surface thermometers? Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 11:01 AM As for the speculative predictions by some here that we will see “global cooling” because of a “cooling sun”. According to the SORCE reconstruction of the TSI (http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/files/2011/09/TIM_TSI_Reconstruction.png) TSI averaged over recent solar cycles has been about 1.2 W/m^2 above the TSI during the Maunder minimum. This translates to a solar radiative forcing of about 0.21 W/m^2 (1.2/40.7) between recent TSI and Maunder minimum. With a carbon dioxide increase of about 2 ppm a year in the atmosphere, it takes only eight years of CO2 increase to exert about the same magnitude of radiative forcing: 5.35ln(416.0/400.0)=0.21 W/m^2. Thus, based on a comparison of the radiative forcings, if the sun indeed goes into a Maunder minimum like state, the effect on global temperature variability will very likely be relatively small. It will have only a small counteracting effect, if CO2 (and other greenhouse gases such as methane) continues to increase in the atmosphere. The effect on global temperatures of a continuing CO2 increase at similar rates as today over multiple decades will strongly overwhelm any counteracting effect of a decrease in solar activity. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 11:03 AM Oh, this was supposed to go at the end of the thread, not as reply to “Phyte_On”. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 1:42 PM Jan…”With a carbon dioxide increase of about 2 ppm a year in the atmosphere, it takes only eight years of CO2 increase to exert about the same magnitude of radiative forcing:” Forcings apply only to the differential equations in climate models. There is no real proof of CO2 doing anything to create warming. In fact the 18 year warming hiatus proves the opposite to what you claim. If you are going to talk science, please stop passing off unvalidated models as being scientific. None of their ‘projections’ can be verified by the scientific method hence they cannot be validated. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 1:51 PM Every sentence by you is utter rubbish. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 2:23 PM Jan…”Every sentence by you is utter rubbish”. That would be understandable considering you are a layman. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:46 PM Now you are babbling. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 4:56 PM Ze is defintely not a layperson. But, ze has made a logical leap that is left unacknowledged. The mechanisms by which the CO2 and solar input heat the Earth are quite different. Different spectra entirely. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 7, 2017 at 7:39 PM It is correct that different physical processes occur through which the different forcing driving climate variability. However, there are also feedbacks in play that are the same, which amplify a relatively small forcing, such as the water vapor feedback in the long-wave range and the ice-albedo feedback in the short-wave range. And the evidence known to me does not support the claim that the climate sensitivity to solar forcing and the one to forcing by greenhouse gases differ much. Perhaps you know evidence for such a claim, which I don’t know? Gordon Robertson says: January 7, 2017 at 8:37 PM Jan …”there are also feedbacks in play that are the same, which amplify a relatively small forcing…” I don’t care how many degrees you have, if you think a feedback is an amplifier you’re a layman. The notion that a feedback can act as an amplifier is strictly pseudo-science. Positive feedback can be used as part of an amplifier to enhance the input while causing an exponential gain in the output. However, positive feedback is part of the system, not the amplifying agent. If you want first hand evidence, set up a PA system with a microphone and adjust the amplifier level till you the typical feedback squeal. When it begins, turn off the amplifier and the feedback is terminated hence the squeal. There are no true positive feedbacks in the atmosphere since there is no gain mechanism. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 9:20 AM For instance, an increase in solar irradiation will increase temperature at Earth surface, leading to decreased sea ice in the Arctic, reducing Earth’s albedo, leading to a larger value of solar radiation that is absorbed at the surface. The gain in solar radiation at the surface is larger than it would be, if the positive ice-albedo feedback wasn’t present. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:10 PM “And the evidence known to me does not support the claim that the climate sensitivity to solar forcing and the one to forcing by greenhouse gases differ much.” Shortwave solar radiation penetrates deep into the oceans to cause long term heating. Longwave radiation from CO2 back-radiation does not. It is rather unnerving that a person in your position is unaware of this. ClimateChange4realz says: January 11, 2017 at 1:46 PM Bart, everyone with brains knows that more co2 leads more trapped heat thus leading to a warmer planet. The only problem is while co2 makes up 20% of the total ghg affect at most mans contribution makes up less then 3%. Here let a real physicist spell it out for you: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sGZqWMEpyUM Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 2:58 PM What makes you think I was unaware of this? I never said anything to the contrary of the physical fact that solar radiation penetrated relatively deep into the oceans and longwave radiation did not, nor did I say anything that would imply what you claim. It is annoying that you make up assertions about me to smear me, when you don’t know to answer anything with substance. This is a despicable tactic. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 4:07 PM “And the evidence known to me does not support the claim that the climate sensitivity to solar forcing and the one to forcing by greenhouse gases differ much. If you believe you were misunderstood, then perhaps you should strive to make your statements clearer. It looks very much like you are merely making an appeal to outrage. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 4:31 PM Let’s backtrack, shall we? You asserted that “With a carbon dioxide increase of about 2 ppm a year in the atmosphere, it takes only eight years of CO2 increase to exert about the same magnitude of radiative forcing: 5.35ln(416.0/400.0)=0.21 W/m^2.” I essentially countered with the observation that W/m^2 does not tell the whole story, that these two forcings do not operate on the same footing, and there is no reason to presume that their effects are equivalent. You have now countered with, essentially, “I know that! Why wouldn’t I know that? I’m well aware of that!” If it is your claim now that high energy, deep ocean heating does not cause any significantly different response than low energy surface heating, then I’m afraid we are going to have to agree to disagree. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 4:38 PM And again just misrepresentation of what I said and again deflection. You obviously are not capable to address the actual statements of your opponent. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 5:40 PM Could you quit dodging then, and explain what you mean in your own words? David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:38 PM “There is no real proof of CO2 doing anything to create warming.” Wrong. Radiative forcing measured at Earths surface corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect, R. Philipona et al, Geo Res Letters, v31 L03202 (2004) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003GL018765/abstract “Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO2 from 2000 to 2010,” D. R. Feldman et al, Nature 519, 339343 (19 March 2015) http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v519/n7543/full/nature14240.html Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:12 PM Phyte: Using NOAA data, the surface warming from 1/1999 to 11/2016 is (+0.35 +/- 0.06) deg C. Reply Phyte_On says: January 6, 2017 at 12:18 PM Thank you. When will 12/2016 come out? Do you have a site/link where I can check this each month similar to Dr. Spencer’s site. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:38 PM I heard a rumor that NOAA is going to announce the December number on Jan 18th, but a NOAA PIO tells me they haven’t picked a final date yet. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 1:37 PM DA…”Phyte: Using NOAA data, the surface warming from 1/1999 to 11/2016 is (+0.35 +/- 0.06) deg C.” Did you tell Phyte that NOAA corrupted the historical record to get that trend, a trend the IPCC did not see from 1998 – 2012 after they peer reviewed it in their 2012 review? UAH did not see it wither. The IPCC declared that era a ‘warming hiatus’ and NOAA are currently under investigation by a US Senate committee for essentially scientific misconduct. In case Phyte wonders how NOAA did it, they slashed 1500 weather stations from a global pool of 6500 then applied real data from 1500 stations to a climate model to SYNTHESIZE the 5000 they removed. Guess what, they found record warming. I hope the new administration in the US shuts these charlatans down. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 1:58 PM Gordon, for the Nth time, better data came in after the 5AR was published. It shows no hiatus. Is that really so diffiult to understand The Ksrl et al changes were in SSTs. An independent study published Wednesday verified the changes: “Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records,” Zeke Hausfather et al, Science Advances 04 Jan 2017: Vol. 3, no. 1, e1601207, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601207 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601207 Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 2:15 PM DA…”Gordon, for the Nth time, better data came in after the 5AR was published. It shows no hiatus. Is that really so diffiult to understand” It is from you and your propaganda troll machine, especially when you cannot supply proof of the ‘better data’. What better data can you get? The IPCC uses 2500 reviewers to find what researchers are saying via peer review, then NOAA comes along after the fact, slashes 5000 surface stations from a global pool of 6500 stations, subjects data from 1500 stations to a climate model, SYNTHESIZES the missing 5000, then claims…”Oh, oh…the IPCC was wrong”. Come on man, get real. Do you think everyone is so stupid they can’t see through your carefully manipulated propaganda. You put Josef Geobbels to shame. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:36 PM Gordon, your reply and its insinuations are so putrid you don’t deserve a meaningful reply. Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 2:21 PM Phyte_on…”How much has it warmed in this 18 year period according to the surface thermometers?” According to the IPCC there was a warming hiatus from 1998 – 2012. page 6: “Despite the robust multi-decadal timescale warming, there exists substantial multi-annual variability in the rate of warming with several periods exhibiting almost no linear trend including the warming hiatus since 1998. The rate of warming over 19982012 (0.05C [0.05 to +0.15] per decade)…” http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter02.pdf Please note the IPCC has a very strange practice of allowing 50 lead authors in the Summary for Policymakers to sanitize the Final Draft listed above to make it more palatable for politicians. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:59 AM RSS found 2016 to be the warmest year by 0.17 C. 1998 second, 2010 third. http://images.remss.com/papers/rsstech/Jan_5_2017_news_release.pdf Reply Phyte_On says: January 6, 2017 at 12:30 PM See my earlier question. Can you provide me a link to a site where I can look at the monthly surface temperature data in a similar fashion as the UAH satellite data. I would like to follow the surface temps vs. satellite data on an on-going basis. I’m not a scientist just real curious – no agenda. I like the straight forward presentation of Dr. Spencer/UAH monthly data – very easy to follow. Looking for something similar for surface thermometer data. Thank you. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:49 PM Phyte, this site is (mostly) being real picky for me today about posting links, so I’ll only post this RealClimate list of data sources for climate data: http://realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/ Scroll down to “Climate data (processed)” Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 1:20 PM DA…”Phyte, this site is (mostly) being real picky for me today about posting links, so Ill only post this RealClimate list of data sources for climate data:” Phyte…a word of warning. realclimate is an uber-alarmist site run by the head of NASA GISS and his buddy Michael Mann of Climategate fame. If you are wondering why the head of GISS is dabbling in climate propaganda that’s the same question asked by Donald Trump and why he is considering shutting it down. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 1:48 PM Gordon, you should ashamed of yourself, smearing others while providing no evidence whatsoever of what you claim. Pathetic. The RC page I linked to is a LIST OF LINKS. Why don’t you go click on them and download some data for a change. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:03 PM Gavin Schmidt started running realclimate.org together with others when he hadn’t been “head of GISS” yet. ” thats the same question asked by Donald Trump and why he is considering shutting it down.” Now that would be something, if the Trump administration engaged in active censorship against a website run by scientists, or generally in active censorship against the Web. Even though I think it’s possible that it will get really ugly with Trump as president, I haven’t heard anything about that Trump was “considering” such a thing. Please provide the source for your assertion. Or is this just your wet dream that the Trump government is going to move with authoritarian means against science and scientists who say inconvenient things? David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:34 PM Jan: I totally agree about censorship under Trump, but RealClimate is a private site, not a government site. Science Communication Network pays for the domain and site, and scientists volunteer to write there. See http://realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/about/ Jan P Perlwitz says: January 7, 2017 at 6:10 PM David, Yes, I know that. This is why such censorship of a private site run by scientists would be extraordinary. It would be a clear sign that the Trump administration was trying to transform the United States into an authoritarian regime. But I would like to see the source for Gordon’s claim that Trump was “considering” to shut down the site. I very much suspect that this is a figment of Gordon’s imagination. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:18 PM Jan, I’d like to see Gordon’s source too. I highly suspect he doesn’t have one. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:56 PM These aren’t on the RealClimate list, but both NOAA and Hadley have global SSTs: HadSST3 http://www.metoffice.gov[DOT]uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_monthly_globe_ts.txt Replace [DOT] with “.” — I’m trying to fake out this blog, which isn’t letting me post many links. NOAA in next comment. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 1:02 PM Phyte, as sometimes happens here, I’m just not allowed to post anything that contains something other than words…. will try again later. (Frustrating.) Reply Phyte_On says: January 6, 2017 at 2:20 PM Thank you. I will try to find the links. I tried google but got frustrated. Again, no agenda. Just really frustrated that I can’t get a straightforward set of graphs on Surface Temperature measurements by month like I get here. Also, I get super frustrated that I have to weed through the bias on all sides of this issue. I just want to look at the data for myself and come to my own conclusion. I’m very agnostic on this subject. But super curious. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:35 PM You can find many graphs at the NASA GISS website: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Further down are also the tables with the monthly data. And a link to the programs with which the GISTEMP analysis is done. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 4:42 PM Phyte, if you want you can email me and I’ll send you my spreadsheet of links to the data I keep track of. My email address is on my Web site, http://www.davidappell.com gallopingcamel says: January 6, 2017 at 11:49 PM You act as if there is some kind of “Consensus”. Another of your false ideas: https://wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/klimamodelleabweichungenjan2016bisjunil2016-e1469356263447.jpg This image is from a blog that uses UAH publications to make its case: http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.QregI042.dpbs Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 7, 2017 at 3:01 AM Here’s a genuine scientific source confirming the existence of a consensus. But without the scare quotes: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 11:24 AM gallopingcamel says: January 6, 2017 at 11:49 PM “You act as if there is some kind of Consensus. Another of your false ideas: https://wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/klimamodelleabweichungenjan2016bisjunil2016-e1469356263447.jpg” Whenever you see a graph that claims it’s about climate but has endpoints that are specific months and years, your BS detector should go off, because it’s cherry picking. Conclusions about climate don’t depend on specific months, or even specific years. They depend on decades, preferably three or more. (says the WMO) Besides, extrapolating 15 years of data to a per century rate is unscientific and meaningless. It would only be justified if the century was going to like the 15 years. That is simply not the case with climate, with GHG concentrations increasing all the time and feedbacks present. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:35 PM But… RSS’s number is for the TTT — For the LT, they found 2016 to be warmer than 1998 by the same 0.02 C. I don’t know what their margins of error are. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 1:28 PM DA…”RSS found 2016 to be the warmest year by 0.17 C…1998 second, 2010 third”. They did that by down-grading 1998 temperatures retroactively. RSS cannot be trusted. The company was formed to prove UAH wrong and they ended up proving them right. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 1:46 PM More smear and lies. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 1:46 PM Gordon, you’re another one who dismisses all data you don’t like by insinuating corruption. Never any evidence presented though, huh? Are you aware that UAH lowered their trend when going from v5.6 to v6.0? And that some of their changes were huge? And about three times larger than Karl et al? That they then agreed with RSS (at least for the LT)? A UAH global number changed by 0.30 C A UAH NoPol land number changes by -1.41 C. Another by +1.22 C. More here: http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/04/some-big-adjustments-to-uahs-dataset.html Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 7, 2017 at 3:03 AM Ah, unsupported smear tactics. Never seen THAT before. Google “BEST study” if you want to find out what happens when anyone honestly seeks to replicate work on AW. RSS is currently reinforcing the record for 2016, by the way. So it is, indeed, proving it right, just not the way you want to believe. Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 1:51 PM Frost reaches the Gulf of Mexico. http://files.tinypic.pl/i/00856/f73gon04pd08.png Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 1:53 PM How will this affect climate? Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:22 PM You still got other questions? Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:17 PM How will this affect climate? Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:32 PM This is not the climate. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/y8d0a92ml1x0.png Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:43 PM It is the only air circulation. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/yp5p5ohq0lou.gif http://oi64.tinypic.com/29egbva.jpg Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 3:34 PM Please see the temperature jumps in the stratosphere, which broke the polar vortex. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/10mb9065.png Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 3:41 PM Another wave visible in the stratosphere within the polar vortex action. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_JFM_NH_2017.png Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 4:44 PM So why post about current air circulation, when this blog post is about climate? Reply Lewis says: January 6, 2017 at 6:09 PM David, I believe Dr. Spencer is in charge of this site. He seems to allow quite a variety of comments with certain exceptions: see recently ‘Sod’. I’ve never seen ren be rude, certainly not as rude as you or I and his links are usually something someone who visits this site might find interesting, certainly I do. Why you object is beyond me. You, who go on and on and on and on and on with your proselytizing. Lewis Reply gallopingcamel says: January 6, 2017 at 11:45 PM Lewis you are dealing with a zealot. Rational debate is not possible with such people. Their yapping is harmless. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 6:56 PM GC always resorts to personal insults when he has no science. This won’t be the end of it, either. ren says: January 6, 2017 at 11:53 PM Circulation anomalies that may be present for many years, as a low solar activity, are science of climate or not? http://pamola.um.maine.edu/fcst_frames/GFS-025deg/DailySummary/GFS-025deg_WORLD-CED_T2_anom.png Reply ren says: January 7, 2017 at 12:12 AM Is such anomalies in the winter are important to people? http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00856/uahe2xxu59qw.gif http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/dmykpee9w39v.gif Reply ren says: January 7, 2017 at 1:37 AM David Appell You do not too much concentrate on measuring devices? Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 6:55 PM No idea what that’s supposed to mean. jean-luc says: January 6, 2017 at 4:46 PM R. spencer says : “Strong December Cooling Leads to 2016 Being Statistically Indistinguishable from 1998” completely false if you release december you obtain 0,52 for 2016 year mean i don’t understand why you say that ? the only truth is 2016 have the highest temperature higher or equal to 1998 with UAH data (satellite) but the difference between 1998 and 2016 is the year before (1997 vs 2015) 1997 : 0,0 vs 2015 : 0,25 and after 1999 : 0,0 the trend is warming not cooling. december 2016 beat many recent year …. the fourth rank compare to complete year Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 9:11 PM jean-luc…”i dont understand why you say that ? ” If you lived where I do on the Pacific coast of Canada, you’d know why first hand. We just experienced the coldest December on record. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 5:01 PM Salem, Oregon, Pacific Northwest: December 2016 the coldest December since….2013. Reply jean-luc says: January 7, 2017 at 10:18 PM the coldest December on record you said G. Robertson…. Maybe you can cherry pick special fruit like other climato skeptic :)….on pacific coast ! We talk about climat , not about weather ! When (like R. Spencer) a person mix the two subject (climat and weather) we become skeptic about his knowledge of climat change ! he make wrong interpretation Bravo David Appell, good answer Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 6, 2017 at 5:18 PM I see certain people are blaming this cooling on La Nia. Funny because no other La Nia since sattelite records began has dropped as quick as June and July of last year. More warmist drival nonsense. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:30 PM Even the UAH press release says “2016 Edges 1998 as Warmest Year on Record.” http://www.newswise.com/articles/2016-edges-1998-as-warmest-year-on-record It says, “Globally, 2016 edged out 1998 by +0.02 C to become the warmest year in the 38-year satellite temperature record, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie, with a higher probability that 2016 was warmer than 1998.” So why is this blog in disagreement with the press release? Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 9:08 PM DA…”It says, Globally, 2016 edged out 1998 by +0.02 C…So why is this blog in disagreement with the press release?” +0.02C is 2/100ths of a degree C. You can’t even begin to see that on a room mercury thermometer and even on a more expensive digital thermometer the error range would likely allow for that as an error. Roy claimed the 0.02C is insignificant and it is. Why are you trying to make an issue of it? Is it because you were braying for so long about 2016 being a record warming year? The point is that 2016 had a 0.25C head start over 1998 and is technically not nearly as warm. There was an unexpected surge in the global average around 2001 of about 0.025C that has not been explained. Without that surge, which was likely produced by natural causes, 2016 is a lot colder than 1998. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 12:01 AM Gordon: I find many of your comments to be extremely odious, and I’m not interested in replying to anymore of your questions or claims. Reply Lewis says: January 7, 2017 at 4:16 PM David: Odious? Really? Your schizo self loose today? Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 6, 2017 at 5:35 PM Lol. I do not see where it says one era on this page as in the one we are commenting on. Go get your eyes checked Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 6, 2017 at 5:37 PM He said it would have to be 0.1 degree C warmer count as significant dimwit! Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 9:55 PM The press release says something different. Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 6, 2017 at 5:40 PM The error in the comment section was by 0.01C not 0.1C are you blind? Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 7, 2017 at 2:50 AM Finally got some snow here in the Alps. However: “In the Swiss Alps, the last time so little snow fell over the Christmas period was in 1864, according to measurements taken by the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research … The last three years have been a “row of Decembers without snow”, says Mr Marty. While it may be too early to confirm a pattern, even the possibility that snow will not fall until after the festive season is a concern.” http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38516688?post_id=10207120808963323_10211963704352681#_=_gg Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 7, 2017 at 2:59 AM RSS have confirmed that 2016 Tropospheric Temperatures break the 1998 record by 0.31 “degrees Fahrenheit” – whatever the hell they are. Looks like about 0.2C. http://www.remss.com/node/5203 Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 7, 2017 at 10:37 AM Even if it was that much warmer. So what? History shows us again and again that before every grand solar minimum there is a record breaking spike in global temperatures. This one being with the combined affects of elnino and the peak of the past solar cycle which correlated a lag of one year thus peaking in February of 2016. The combined affects of the peak of the previous 11 year solar cycle and the strong El Nio is what caused that record breaking spike not man. There is your answer! Reply Egor the One says: January 7, 2017 at 3:01 AM CAGW = BS ……the only relative equation ! Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 7, 2017 at 10:38 AM You got that right! Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:16 PM What does “catastrophic” mean? It isn’t a scientific term. Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 9:54 AM Lmao. Did you really just ask that? Reply ren says: January 7, 2017 at 4:57 AM The range of Arctic air in North America. http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00856/icfp02kwmi1x.gif And in Europe. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/42nhgwn3d2m5.gif Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:54 PM What about in Madagascar, ren? Reply ren says: January 7, 2017 at 5:03 AM Modeled ice thickness and volume The plots show maps with sea ice thickness, and seasonal cycles of the calculated total arctic sea ice volume. The mean sea ice volume and standard deviation for the period 2004-2013 are shown with gray. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20170106.png Reply ren says: January 7, 2017 at 5:23 AM The forecast ozone indicates that Arctic air will flow now to the eastern US. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/ra43lxc456q6.png Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:58 PM That will be a first. /sarc Reply Mark G says: January 7, 2017 at 7:59 AM Comparing this length in time is like saying the the living room is 1 degree cooler .005 seconds ago. It’s not a question on if we are changing our planet. It is how much. Do we argue about traffic controls at a intersection because there have be multiple accidents there? Or do we wait until someone dies before doing something. Money and business are driving this ridiculous notion we are not changing our world. Nothing bad comes from cleaning our act up now. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 7, 2017 at 8:34 AM Quite. Reply Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 11:59 AM Actually, money and business are driving the ridiculous notion that we are significantly changing our world, and for the worse. There’s lots of money to be made in panic mongering, and AGW is a trillion (with a T) dollar industry worldwide. We don’t need to “clean up our act” vis a vis CO2 because CO2 isn’t dirty. It is a vital compound for life to exist on this planet. If anything, we need more of it, not less. A lot of bad comes from misdirecting resources from fighting actual pollution into this silly crusade against innocent, little CO2. Solar and wind power will never, ever be major contributors to our energy supply, yet we are spending gazillions on poisoning groundwater with silicon tetrachloride, and shredding rare raptors and insect controlling bats while mining heavy metals for wind turbines. Biofuels require more net energy input than they produce, which means MORE, not LESS CO2, even if that were a useful thing to do – burning food for fuel was never very bright. Our environment is cleaner, our forests broader, our air more transparent now than it has been at any time in my life, and I have been around for a fairly significant time, I can tell you. Do not let the panic merchants bamboozle you. There is not there, there. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:57 PM Bart says: “Solar and wind power will never, ever be major contributors to our energy supply” “World Energy Hits a Turning Point: Solar That’s Cheaper Than Wind: Emerging markets are leapfrogging the developed world thanks to cheap panels.” Bloomberg News, 12/14/16 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/world-energy-hits-a-turning-point-solar-that-s-cheaper-than-wind Reply Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:03 PM Then, why does it need subsidies? Reply Ed Millerski says: January 9, 2017 at 9:44 AM I suppose for the same reasons oil and gas required and continue to receive federal subsidies – particularly in the form of tax breaks. Bart says: January 9, 2017 at 12:17 PM Tax “breaks” that are available to every industry, Solar and Wind included. This is propaganda. David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:53 PM Fossil fuels get $5 T/yr subsidies around the globe…. $300-500 B/yr in the USA alone. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 1:18 PM Bart says: “We dont need to clean up our act vis a vis CO2 because CO2 isnt dirty. It is a vital compound for life to exist on this planet. If anything, we need more of it, not less.” IF CO2 is so good for life, why is there no life on Venus, where the atmosphere is 96% carbon dioxide? Reply Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 2:24 PM Good one, Dave. Couldn’t stop laughing. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:54 PM Yet again you have no answer. I’ll add this one to the tally. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 7, 2017 at 7:48 PM “We dont need to clean up our act vis a vis CO2 because CO2 isnt dirty. It is a vital compound for life to exist on this planet. If anything, we need more of it, not less. And potassium in the human body is a “vital compound” for the life of a person. Why don’t you consider applying the same “logic” to the potassium level in your body? Reply Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:03 PM Well, potassium is necessary for hormone secretion and action vascular tone systemic blood pressure control gastrointestinal motility acidbase homeostasis glucose and insulin metabolism mineralocorticoid action renal concentrating ability fluid and electrolyte balance It would be bad to have too little of it as well. Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 2:54 PM David Appell If you are still visiting this thread I would like to respond to a question you posted somewhat above. YOUR POST: “Actually there are about 3000 ARGO buoys, and when I looked up information about the instruments they carry, the temperature measurements we accurate to 0.005 C, IIRC. Of course ocean heat can warm the air see, especially ENSOs. Where do you think all the added heat to the ocean is coming from?? Just in the last 11.5 years, the top half (0-2000 m) of the ocean has gained heat at a rate of 330 trillion Watts” You have a double question mark around your question. It does not have to be added heat. It works just as well to accumulate energy if you reduce one of the primary cooling processes. If the radiant energy remains the same but you reduce a cooling mechanism energy will accumulate. Here is my reply. Please note that I am not making a claim that what I propose it what is actually happening. It is a demonstration only of how complex climate science and heat balance can be. http://www.madsci.org/posts/archives/2006-05/1148725781.Es.r.html Start here. This email gives some data on how much ocean water is evaporated a year. The source is In Koo Kim, Physical Atmospheric Chemistry. The number 425,000 cubic kilometers of ocean water are evaporated a year. I will post in a series since I do not know how many links one post will support. Hope this works for you to follow, if you wish to. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 8:25 PM “The number 425,000 cubic kilometers of ocean water are evaporated a year.” Says who? Where does this water end up? Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:47 PM Norman, where does this water end up? Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 11:32 PM Norman says: “It does not have to be added heat. It works just as well to accumulate energy if you reduce one of the primary cooling processes.” So what cooling processes are giving up 330 terawatts for all of the last 11.5 years? Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:55 PM Norman? You there? Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 3:00 PM David Appell The heat of vaporization of water (how much energy is needed to vaporize 1 kg of water) is given as 2257 KJ/kg. http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/evaporation-water-surface-d_690.html 1 cubic kilometer of water has a mass of 10^12 kg. So some basic math: 425,000 km^3 x 10^12 kg = 4.25×10^17 kg evaporated a year by oceans. 4.25×10^17 kg x 2257 kJ/kg = 9.59×10^20 KJ or 9.59×10^23 Joules. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 3:28 PM What is this 425,000 km3? The volume of the ocean is 1.3 Gkm3. Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 4:33 PM David Appell It was in the first series of posts I have on this topic. “The number 425,000 cubic kilometers of ocean water are evaporated a year.” The source of that information is in the first post of the series. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:50 PM What posts? Sorry, I’m not going to go hunting for all your previous posts. Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 11:59 PM David Appell Here is the link for the 425,000 km^3 http://www.madsci.org/posts/archives/2006-05/1148725781.Es.r.html David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:47 PM Norman, I’m just not interested in trying to parse together several dozen of your comments to try to understand where all the numbers come from. Or guess where those links got their numbers from. Or what you argument is. At this point I have no idea. Write a paper. I’m just not paying attention to you here anymore. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 9:38 PM Norman says: “The source of that information is in the first post of the series.” And what post was that? As I wrote before, these questions can’t be deal with via blog comments. At least get your own blog. Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 3:12 PM David Appell “The linear trends (with 95% confidence intervals) of OHC700 are 0.40 1022 0.05 J yr−1 for 19692008 ” From this article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL037155/full If you take this value and divide it by the total energy removed from oceans by evaporation you get: (0.4×10^22 joules/year) /( 9.59×10^23 joules/year) = 0.00417 Now take this number by the annual amount of water evaporated by oceans a year. 425,000 km^3 x 0.00417 = So it just 1772 less km^3 per year evaporated (so instead of 425,000 it was currently reduced to 423,228 km^3 per year) you would get the amount of warming in the oceans that you describe with no change in energy input. AGW is not needed to explain ocean heating as other things can produce the same results. Evaporation of oceans is very complex. It is not just based upon a slighlty warmer surface temperature. Relative humidity and wind play very powerful roles to rate of evaporation. Like I said I am not making the claim that there is less ocean evaporation. I am only pointing out other mechanisms can produce the warming that scientists are finding and they do not have to be caused by an increase in radiant energy to the system. Does all this make sense to you? Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 3:21 PM Norman, where do you think water that is evaporated ends up going? Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 3:24 PM David Appell It would be the atmosphere and then after condensation it falls back down as rain. Not sure what your point is with that question. You specifically asked about another source of energy accumulation in the ocean and I provided one possible answer. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:51 PM And then where does the rain end up? Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:52 PM Norman says: “You specifically asked about another source of energy accumulation in the ocean and I provided one possible answer.” Where does the energy for evaporation comes from? You don’t honestly think your calculation means energy is being created, right? Reply Norman says: January 8, 2017 at 12:03 AM David Appell YOU: “You dont honestly think your calculation means energy is being created, right?” No I would not think that my calculation would mean such a thing. The oceans are receiving a flux of incoming solar energy. If the rate of evaporation changes less incoming energy can leave the ocean system and you will end up with more energy contained in the oceans relative to a state with higher evaporation rates. Energy is not created but energy can accumulate if one process of energy loss is changed. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 4:42 AM Norman says, January 7, 2017 at 3:12 PM: So it just 1772 less km^3 per year evaporated (so instead of 425,000 it was currently reduced to 423,228 km^3 per year) you would get the amount of warming in the oceans that you describe with no change in energy input. AGW is not needed to explain ocean heating as other things can produce the same results. Evaporation of oceans is very complex. It is not just based upon a slighlty warmer surface temperature. Relative humidity and wind play very powerful roles to rate of evaporation. Like I said I am not making the claim that there is less ocean evaporation. I am only pointing out other mechanisms can produce the warming that scientists are finding and they do not have to be caused by an increase in radiant energy to the system. This is of course a pretty relevant observation you’ve got here, Norman. There’s only one (?) problem with it. It can explain the increase in OHC and SSTs, but it cannot at the same time account for the rising tropospheric temps. When less heat is transferred via evaporation from the surface to the troposphere above, this would, on balance (even as, as you point out, the various interactions going on in the climate system regarding evaporation>condensation are quite complex and hardly linear), lead to a net cooling of the troposphere: https://okulaer.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/rain-vs-heating.png That’s not what we’ve observed since 1979. And so there is really just one process that can explain it all, rising OHC, rising SST, and rising TLT, all at the same time: an increase in the heat INPUT to the Earth system, from the Sun. Which is exactly what the radiation flux data from the ToA is telling us (ERBS+CERES, ISCCP FD): A substantial inrease in the mean level of ASR (TSI minus refl SW (albedo)) from the 80s to the late 90s, created a rather large positive imbalance at the ToA, a gap that the OLR is struggling to close even today. Here’s the causal chain: +ASR -> +T -> +OLR Ball4 says: January 8, 2017 at 9:02 AM Except Loeb 2016 results show that Earth OLR has decreased slightly within meaningful CI for the longest calibratable CERES record studied. CERES data calibrations were performed using ARGO thermometer data. Norman says: January 8, 2017 at 9:12 AM Kristian Thanks for you post. I was not trying to come up with a new idea with my point to David Appell. It was just a demonstration for him of how other effects can change energy accumulation. You can accumulate energy by either adding more energy and the rate of loss is unchanged or you can accumulate energy by keeping the input energy the same and lowering the output energy. I think the evidence is against the evaporation idea anyway. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/state-climate-2011-humidity The Specific Humidity graph on this page shows that the actual water vapor content over the oceans has increased which could not take place with less evaporation. Here is what I wrote to David Appell before starting the excercise: “Here is my reply. Please note that I am not making a claim that what I propose it what is actually happening. It is a demonstration only of how complex climate science and heat balance can be” David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:38 PM Norman, you can keep mentioning me, but (1) I am not going to check or verify your calculations, and (2) I am not going to buy them until they’ve been published in a decent peer reviewed journal. David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:41 PM Norman says: “”It was just a demonstration for him of how other effects can change energy accumulation” But you have yet to demonstrate that any of these ideas comes anywhere CLOSE to explaining modern warming. And even if they did, you’d have to explain why our GHG emissions aren’t a strong warming factor, when every piece of science says they are. David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:42 PM Norman says: “The oceans are receiving a flux of incoming solar energy.” How is this flux changing? Say, since 1960? David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:44 PM Norman says: “It would be the atmosphere and then after condensation it falls back down as rain. Not sure what your point is with that question. You specifically asked about another source of energy accumulation in the ocean and I provided one possible answer.” Why has this energy amount changed since the dawn of the industrial era? Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:43 PM I still don’t know where this “425,000 km3/yr” number comes from. Reply Salvatore Del Prete says: January 8, 2017 at 7:30 AM http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cdas_v2_hemisphere_2017.png where is all of the global warming? Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 9:37 AM Here it is: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ Reply Salvatore Del Prete says: January 8, 2017 at 7:41 AM Now with the sun entering a very quiet phase watch the global temperature trend over the next 6 to 12 months. Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:37 PM “…here is my prediction for climate going forward, this decade will be the decade of cooling.” – Salvatore del Prete, 11/23/2010 http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2010/10/20/andrew-dessler-debating-richard-lindzen/#comment-8875 Reply Norman says: January 8, 2017 at 10:27 PM Kristian and Ball4 I did email Norman Loeb concerning the CERES graphs and their validity. I will have to wait to see if he responds. If Ball4 is correct I will discontinue using the data from CERES. If Kristian is correct I think I should be allowed to post them without the stipulations placed on the graphs by Ball4 or David Appell. He may not respond. I will just have to wait and see. Reply Ball4 says: January 9, 2017 at 1:16 AM Good idea Norman. Though there is no need to discontinue your use of the CERES data calibrated consistent with all CERES team publications and cautions to users. Reply Kristian says: January 9, 2017 at 1:03 PM Thumbs up! Reply Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 6:53 PM test Reply Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:00 PM Kristian and Ball4 Dr. Loeb did respond to my email concerning the CERES website. It seems from his response that Kristian’s view are more valid than Ball4’s. But I will let you evaluate his response on your own to determine the correctness of your views. EMAIL RESPONSE: Dear Norman, As you may already know, EBAF is really two products: EBAF-TOA and EBAF-SFC. The Loeb et al papers primarily discuss EBAF-TOA. The TOA fluxes are closely tied to the actual CERES measurements since they correspond to reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation to space. For some reason the Roy’s webpage does not like something in the copied email so I will try to send it in parts to see what goes through. Reply Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:01 PM Next email segment from Dr. Loeb: In contrast, satellite-derived surface radiative fluxes are determined in a more indirect manner. One has to infer atmospheric and surface properties from imager data and compute surface fluxes using a radiative transfer model. For a reference on EBAF-SFC, you should read the following paper by Kato et al: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00436.1 Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:01 PM As shown in Fig. 1 of Kato et al (2013), EBAF-SFC processing starts with surface radiative flux calculations provided in the SYN1deg-Month data product. For a reference on SYN1deg, please see Rutan et al, 2015: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00165.1 Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:05 PM test Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:12 PM Found the segment that won’t post but not sure what is the offending material. Surface radiative fluxes in S Y N 1 deg -Month consist of radiative transfer model calculations initialized from a number of data sources (e.g., cloud properties retrieved from M O D I S Terra & Aqua imager radiances, 3-hourly cloud property retrievals from geostationary imagers covering 60S-60N, meteorological assimilation data, surface albedo maps, snow/sea-ice maps from N S I D C, aerosol assimilation data constrained using M O D I S aerosol retrievals, etc.) In addition to being able to calculate surface radiative fluxes with a radiative transfer model, one can also calculate T O A fluxes. Due to uncertainties in the input data used in the calculations, the computed T O A fluxes in S Y N 1 deg will not necessarily agree with T O A fluxes in E B A F-T O A. Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:16 PM Putting spaces between the letters of some words allowed it to post so I will do this on this next offending segment. Hope it does not make the email response too hard to follow. CONTINUED EMAIL RESPONSE: In order to provide a data product with self-consistent T O A and surface radiative fluxes, we created the E B A F-S F C product, which uses an objective constrainment algorithm to adjust the inputs used in S Y N 1 deg to ensure consistency between computed T O A fluxes and those provided in E B A F-T O A. Because this requires adjustments to the input data used in the calculations, surface radiative fluxes in E B A F-S F C may differ from those in S Y N 1 deg-Month. To guide adjustment process, we also bring in temperature/humidity data from A I R S and cloud heights from CALIPSO/Cloudsat (see the Kato et al., 2013 paper for more details). Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:17 PM Importantly, we do not adjust the E B A F-S F C fluxes based upon ground surface flux measurements as implied by Ball4s claim: calibrating the satellite data to surface instruments. The surface measurements over land and ocean provide independent validation of the E B A F-S F C surface radiative fluxes. Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:19 PM So, I would not call E B A F-S F C raw uncorrected data. It represents our best attempt at providing the most accurate surface radiative fluxes from satellite. We do our best to publish our validation results for users to interpret. We also provide users with the opportunity to evaluate the products themselves for their particular problem by making the ground measurements available on the ordering tool. For example, you can compare the E B A F surface fluxes directly with hundreds of surface observations with a few commands and have the results displayed for you on the ordering tool. See the following website: https://ceres-tool.larc.nasa.gov/cave/jsp/CAVEEBAFSelection.jsp Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:20 PM It is not my habit to read or interact with blogs so please excuse me if I choose not to dive into what appears to be a heated climate debate. Were very close to releasing a new version of E B A F (E B A F 4.0) hopefully later this month and I am literally swamped with work right now. Hope my comments are helpful. Regards, Norman Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:22 PM Kristian and Ball4 That was the entire contents of the email I received from Dr. Loeb. Hope that clears up questions on the issue of using CERES data. Seems it is a valid resource to use and you can compare the calculated values with ground measurements from his link. I tried it but it was currently unavailable. Ball4 says: January 9, 2017 at 8:18 PM Very well done Norman, thanks for the effort, I’ll dig up & go thru the papers mentioned. barry says: January 9, 2017 at 8:14 PM Well done going to source and asking for advice. Investigate with the caveats at least as recommended by Dr Loeb. I trust ‘skeptics’ will not be overly concerned that the input data has been adjusted and then subjected to modeling to process the results. (/ sarc) Norman says: January 10, 2017 at 9:16 AM barry, I am thinking the “skeptics” may not be against models just for the sake of being against them. The objection is that the models are not matching empirical reality. If you read some the of papers on the Surface Flux models, they find problems and work to correct and change how they calculate the surface fluxes from satellite data. Their goal is to make the most accurate data they are able to generate and they validate their product with empirical measured data. If the globe is not warming at the rate determined by most models (the average of the many models) then they should be evaluated and corrected. The goal of any model should be to match as closely as possible the empirical data and when it deviates, correct the model. Some believe that with the Progressive Governments of most Western Nations, these governments are pushing the CAGW meme in order to gain more power, money and control over people. If they can scare the Public enough, the Public will give up freedom for safety and “Big Brother” will watch and control it all for our safety. Since Governments have trillions of dollars flowing through the treasury they can afford to use some of this money to generate a false sense of panic in order to herd the citizens into compartments of fear and manipulation. Ball4 says: January 10, 2017 at 11:28 AM Norman – OK, I read thru Kato/Loeb 2013. This paper shows the complex process CERES team uses to go from EBAF TOA to EBAF SFC irradiances, i.e. Fig. 1 surface irradiance adjustment process to produce the EBAF-surface product. The process of obtaining CIs from the various satellite (A-train) and surface instruments should be a good source for you (and Kristian) to master if your ambition continues to make your EBAF TOA raw data downloads meaningful within CI (as in Loeb 2016 Table 4). As Dr. Loeb writes, the Loeb et. al. papers are your best source to achieve that ambition helped along mastering the 2013 SFC paper discussion of CI provenance. Once either of you are able to replicate Loeb 2016 Table 4, your processing of the raw data constrained meaningful within confidence intervals (CIs) will gain credibility. I point out Loeb 2016 concludes with: “…it is critical that there be no gaps between successive CERES instruments on different satellite platforms. Bridging a gap would require a reliance on the absolute calibration of CERES sensors, which is inadequate for this purpose (Loeb 2009).” This is why your link to TFK2009 concurs as to EB imbalance from CERES too large, can be meaningfully constrained by using ARGO (Loeb 2016). I do not understand how Dr. Loeb came up with the implication I meant they adjust E B A F-S F C fluxes to surface instruments – I did not imply that since I have been discussing the EBAF TOA product calibration cautions to users (not SFC cautions, if any). Kristian says: January 10, 2017 at 12:44 PM Ball4 says, January 10, 2017 at 11:28 AM: The process of obtaining CIs from the various satellite (A-train) and surface instruments should be a good source for you (and Kristian) to master if your ambition continues to make your EBAF TOA raw data downloads meaningful within CI (as in Loeb 2016 Table 4). (My boldface.) Ball4, Please don’t embarrass yourself even more. EBAF ToA data is BY DEFINITION not “raw data”. It is radiance data processed to level 3B (4) in the CERES flowchart: https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/products.php?product=EBAF-TOA https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/documents/DQ_summaries/CERES_EBAF_Ed2.8_DQS.pdf Ball4 says: January 10, 2017 at 12:57 PM Kristian remains moot on the raw data containing finished instrument calibration confidence intervals thus meaningful. If the data Kristian downloads does contain finished CIs, is not just raw, please show us. Ought to be no problem for Kristian to build credibility as an authority on CERES OLR by replicating Table 4 in Loeb 2016 from the raw data download(s) & showing his work (not just pretty graphs of the raw data). Kristian has had 6+ months of discussion to do this, we are still waiting even though I’ve provided links to pertinent Loeb papers and the CERES team user cautions: crickets. Kristian says: January 10, 2017 at 12:58 PM Norman says, January 9, 2017 at 7:22 PM: Hope that clears up questions on the issue of using CERES data. Seems it is a valid resource to use and you can compare the calculated values with ground measurements from his link. Of course (!!) it’s a valid resource. Ball4 is making up his own reality on this issue. However, one does need to be careful upon choosing which data product to use. This is from the CERES team itself (the FAQ): https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/faq_main.php#which_product “Which CERES Product Should I Use? – CERES best estimate (net-balanced) TOA fluxes, use EBAF especially for evaluation of climate model and energy budget – CERES best estimate surface fluxes, use SYN – CERES TOA fluxes for long term climate trend evaluation, use SSF with associated cloud and aerosol properties” EBAF is based on the SYN1deg and SSF1deg products. SYN1deg and SSF1deg observed LW ToA fluxes are both pretty close to the EBAF end product, while the surface fluxes (as Loeb himself alluded to) can be quite different between SYN1deg (the source) and EBAF (the end product). Kristian says: January 10, 2017 at 1:03 PM Ball4 says, January 10, 2017 at 12:57 PM: If the data Kristian downloads does contain finished CIs, is not just raw, please show us. Sigh It’s called EBAF Ed2.8, Ball4. Loeb wouldn’t publish the data under that name if it were still raw, you clown! The CERES team publishes their various data products for the public to see and use. The public can choose between data products all the way from the raw data (level 1) to the final end product (level 3B (4)). How thick can one get!? I’m sure if you asked Loeb himself about this (you don’t dare to, of course), he wouldn’t even understand what you’re talking about. Er, EBAF Ed2.8 ToA “raw data”? Huh? Ball4 says: January 10, 2017 at 1:15 PM “How thick can one get!?” Not as “thick” as Kristian, the finished work is Table 4 of Loeb 2016. You have not yet replicated the finished work from the raw data. I don’t have any need to contact Dr. Loeb, the finished data is in his Loeb 2016 easy to find, I already found it, I linked it for you. It is trivial to download the EBAF raw data and show a pretty graph which is the extent of your accomplishment after 6+ months of discussion. To finish the work and show your interpretations meaningful within CI means to master all the user data cautions in your own link, Loeb 2016, Kato/Loeb 2013 and calculate CI & replicate Table 4 Loeb 2016. Ball4 says: January 10, 2017 at 2:11 PM Kristian, I’ll be more specific, take your pretty graph download of EBAF Ed2.8, level 3B (4) (or the exact one used in Loeb 2016). In the last 6+ months you ought to have been easily able to truncate it to the dates in Loeb 2016 Table 4 and come up with their CERES/Terra Daytime LW TOA flux of -0.89 W/m^2 per decade, that from CERES/Aqua -0.73. You also ought to be able to explain why the truncation was performed on the raw EBAF Ed2.8, level 3B (4) (or earlier) data (hint: explained in a ref. at the end of the paper). You have to date after 6+ months shown no sign of subject mastery in being able to do so let alone using the data cautions and A-Train constellation for confidence interval development on the raw data. All necessary if you are to credibly extend CERES Team work as was your ambition at the start of these discussions. David Appell says: January 16, 2017 at 4:25 PM Norman says: “Were very close to releasing a new version of E B A F (E B A F 4.0) hopefully later this month and I am literally swamped with work right now.” Who is “we?” David Appell says: January 16, 2017 at 4:26 PM Norman says: “Some believe that with the Progressive Governments of most Western Nations, these governments are pushing the CAGW meme in order to gain more power, money and control over people” Norman, the US has had a cap-and-trade program for 25 years. How exactly has this exerted control over you? David Appell says: January 17, 2017 at 10:53 PM Norman: Again, who is “we?” If you work for a scienific group, you should say so. Ed Millerski says: January 9, 2017 at 9:31 AM 9 of the 10 hottest years in the UAH satellite record occurred this century. 9 of the 10 coldest years occurred last century. Perhaps this too is “statistically insignificant”, but it sure as hell seems to indicate things are indeed heating up. Reply Bindidon says: January 9, 2017 at 11:52 AM Yes, Ed, and especially in the northernmost latitudes. The most known UAH6.0 record shows in its ‘NoPol’ column (60N-82.5N) a trend of 0.24 C / decade, and that’s already twice as much as for the entire Globe. But if you inspect UAH’s 2.5 deg gridded record and compute the linear trends for all 66 available latitude zones, you obtain for the northernmost latitudes (80N-82.5N) a trend of 0.42 C / decade. And if you compute the trends separately for all 9,504 grid cells, you see that – the cell with the highest trend has shown 4.62 C / decade; – 96 of the 100 highest trends were computed for cells located in 80N-82.5N (two are in Kamchatka, two at the South Pole). Reply Bart says: January 9, 2017 at 12:15 PM So what? Things have been warming since the exit of the LIA. The questions are: 1) Do we have anything significant to do with it? 2) Can we do anything to stop it? 3) Would we want to do anything to stop it? The answers are, no, no, and no. Reply Bindidon says: January 10, 2017 at 7:21 AM A little correction due to your egocentrism: Your answers are, no, no, and no. Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:35 PM Bart: Seriously, have you ever taken the time to read about the evidence for man’s role in modern warming? If so, what have you read? Reply David Appell says: January 17, 2017 at 10:52 PM Still no answer, Bart? I’ll take that to mean you haven’t read anything whatsoever. Reply ChuckC says: January 9, 2017 at 9:15 PM It indicates that things HAVE heated up, thru 1998. This is now 2017. Reply Bindidon says: January 10, 2017 at 7:42 AM It indicates that things HAVE heated up, thru 1998. Indeed! And UAH6.0’s trend from 1999 till today is exactly the same as that from 1979: 0.12 C / decade. Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:33 PM The vast gains in ocean heat content leaves no doubt whatsoever that the Earth still has a substantial energy imbalance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File:Ocean_Heat_Content_(2012).png Reply Bindidon says: January 9, 2017 at 11:35 AM JMA is one of the “coldest” pure surface temperature record available: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html December data is not officially available yet, but you see a ranking this last month hardly might manage to change: 1st. 2016(+0.46C), 2nd. 2015(+0.42C), 3rd. 2014(+0.27C), 4th. 1998(+0.22C), 5th. 2013,2010(+0.20C) Reply barry says: January 9, 2017 at 6:49 PM Bindidon, here’s the annual anomalies listed. As of today 2016 is averaged to November, but in about 5 days it will be updated for December. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/list/year_wld.html Reply Bindidon says: January 10, 2017 at 7:16 AM Thanks Barry, I have seen that a few days ago, but yearly data isn’t very interesting for me. I’m waiting for JMA’s 5 deg gridded data, allowing me to compare it in 80-85N with Roy Spencer’s 2.5 deg record. Thanks a propos to him for having published the trend map at WUWT; that was a good idea, as many people have few knowledge about high latitude trends in the Arctic. Reply David Appell says: January 17, 2017 at 10:51 PM JMA’s December number is preliminary, not official. Read more carefully. Reply barry says: January 18, 2017 at 8:12 AM For the record: RSS 1998 : 0.55 RSS 2016 : 0.57 All the global [land/sea] data sets will have 2016 at the top rank. If they’re all non-significant results, we’ll still be left with all 6 showing 2016 as highest rank. 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F » Books Search Pages Global Microwave Sea Surface Temperature Update for Feb. 2013 Hurricane Gonzalo Intensifying North of Puerto Rico Mid-April Blizzard to Clobber the Upper Midwest My Global Warming Skepticism, for Dummies Science and Religion: Do your own damn Google search Will 2016 be a Record Warm Year in the Satellite Data? About Global Warming GW 101 Research Articles & Simple Climate Model Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Satellite and Climate Model Evidence Against Substantial Manmade Climate Change (supercedes “Has the Climate Sensitivity Holy Grail Been Found?”)
0.94619	The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December 2016 was +0.24 deg. C, down substantially from the November value of +0.45 deg. C (click for full size version): The resulting 2016 annual average global temperature anomaly is +0.50 deg. C, which is (a statistically insignificant) 0.02 deg. C warmer than 1998 at +0.48 deg. C. We estimate that 2016 would have had to be 0.10 C warmer than 1998 to be significantly different at the 95% confidence level. Both 2016 and 1998 were strong El Nino years. The 38 years in the satellite record, ranked from warmest to coolest (and ignoring statistical uncertainty) are: RANK YEAR deg.C. 01 2016 +0.50 02 1998 +0.48 03 2010 +0.34 04 2015 +0.26 05 2002 +0.22 06 2005 +0.20 07 2003 +0.19 08 2014 +0.18 09 2007 +0.16 10 2013 +0.13 11 2001 +0.12 12 2006 +0.11 13 2009 +0.10 14 2004 +0.08 15 1995 +0.07 16 2012 +0.06 17 1987 +0.05 18 1988 +0.04 19 2011 +0.02 20 1991 +0.02 21 1990 +0.01 22 1997 -0.01 23 1996 -0.01 24 1999 -0.02 25 2000 -0.02 26 1983 -0.04 27 1980 -0.04 28 1994 -0.06 29 2008 -0.10 30 1981 -0.11 31 1993 -0.20 32 1989 -0.21 33 1979 -0.21 34 1986 -0.22 35 1984 -0.24 36 1992 -0.28 37 1982 -0.30 38 1985 -0.36 The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 24 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS 2015 01 +0.30 +0.44 +0.15 +0.13 2015 02 +0.19 +0.34 +0.04 -0.07 2015 03 +0.18 +0.28 +0.07 +0.04 2015 04 +0.09 +0.19 -0.01 +0.08 2015 05 +0.27 +0.34 +0.20 +0.27 2015 06 +0.31 +0.38 +0.25 +0.46 2015 07 +0.16 +0.29 +0.03 +0.48 2015 08 +0.25 +0.20 +0.30 +0.53 2015 09 +0.23 +0.30 +0.16 +0.55 2015 10 +0.41 +0.63 +0.20 +0.53 2015 11 +0.33 +0.44 +0.22 +0.52 2015 12 +0.45 +0.53 +0.37 +0.61 2016 01 +0.54 +0.69 +0.39 +0.84 2016 02 +0.83 +1.16 +0.50 +0.99 2016 03 +0.73 +0.94 +0.52 +1.09 2016 04 +0.71 +0.85 +0.58 +0.93 2016 05 +0.54 +0.65 +0.44 +0.71 2016 06 +0.34 +0.51 +0.17 +0.37 2016 07 +0.39 +0.48 +0.30 +0.48 2016 08 +0.43 +0.55 +0.32 +0.49 2016 09 +0.44 +0.49 +0.39 +0.37 2016 10 +0.41 +0.42 +0.39 +0.46 2016 11 +0.45 +0.41 +0.50 +0.37 2016 12 +0.24 +0.19 +0.30 +0.21 The UAH global image for December, 2016 (and annual image for 2016) should be available in the next several days here. The new Version 6 files should be updated soon, and are located here: Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt 836 Responses to “Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998” Toggle Trackbacks jimc says: January 3, 2017 at 7:38 AM I can imagine what the propaganda machine will make of statistically insignificant. Reply George E. Smith says: January 3, 2017 at 4:57 PM Well as far as the actual universe is concerned, ANYTHING statistical is totally irrelevant. The universe neither knows nor cares about statistics. It only knows what to do with current real time values, and it does what they dictate. G Reply AlanF says: January 5, 2017 at 5:15 PM How much of the heat island effect is elevated dew point because of combustion of fossil fuels? Reply Trevor Marr says: January 18, 2017 at 6:08 PM The Maunder Minimum does not care about how humans benefit from fossil fuel and oil. We simply need the gov’t to issue 2 cards, but you can ONLY sign 1 card. Card#1 – I support Fossil Fuels/oil. Card#2 – I do not support Fossil Fuels/oil. You can only sign 1 card. But in order to get gas, propane, plastic, anything made with fossil fuels/oil, or drive a car, ride a bus, take a plane to the Tropics like our PM does, anything powered by fossil fuels/oil, use a computer, cell phone, iPhone, or even try to buy a banana from another Country brought to Canada via fossil fuels/oil, then YOU must present a signed card #1! There will not be many signed #2 cards! THAT will get rid of all the eco hypocrites! We need optimization/innovation for the ‘capables’, not senseless subsidization of the ‘incapables’! When it gets COLD again, like during the Little Ice Age. Will the Liberals and NDP and Democrats use oil? Yes they will! Reply Richard Chase says: January 7, 2017 at 11:39 AM Statistical significance is a measure of the likely actual difference between two populations (as represented by numbers) whether you are comparing something “universal” or simply global data sets. Reply No need for a propaganda machine, says: January 5, 2017 at 12:46 AM No need for a propaganda machine as people have eyes, and most of us can read a graph. Even a fool can see an upward trend, and if things don’t turn around as Dr Spencer hopes, you will need to devise a new baseline.Oh, and forget about weather events that are cold, as these do not determine our climate…the trends and statistics as a whole do, and this can clearly be seen even by the good doctor’s graph.Statistics can be distorted, but arctic ice and glacial melt can’t. Reply Michael van der Riet says: January 5, 2017 at 4:22 PM Thank you for mentioning baseline. How would you establish baseline? The climate models have convincingly demonstrated that they are unfit for purpose. Not because the modelers are stupid, far from it, but because we know so little about climate science. I say that without CO2, temperatures today would be at least a degree higher. Prove me wrong. Reply Duh says: January 19, 2017 at 12:51 PM CO2 is a greenhouse glass. what you imply about less CO2 would be as nonsensical to say that a glass of water in which i wouldn’t have sprinkled Salt would be saltier than if i did. Reply Ceist says: January 5, 2017 at 7:34 PM RSS Press release Atmospheric temperature measured by satellites sets new record in 2016 http://images.remss.com/papers/rsstech/Jan_5_2017_news_release.pdf Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 2:10 AM Ceist…”RSS Press release….Atmospheric temperature measured by satellites sets new record in 2016″ That’s because they cooled 1998 off. You can’t trust RSS, they were formed to debunk UAH and they failed. Reply Ceist says: January 6, 2017 at 9:42 AM Carl Mears and Frank Wentz have helped Spencer and Christy ‘correct’ their errors in the past. See literature. Reply TedM says: January 6, 2017 at 3:22 PM You mean some scientists worked as a team? barry says: January 9, 2017 at 5:56 PM Scientists work in small teams all the time. But in the above case you have two teams analysing the satellite temp record. Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 7:47 AM The chart clearly shows a global warming trend, especially the 5 year average. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 7:56 AM I assume you mean the 13-month running average…but the trend is only 50% of the trend in the climate models being used to change energy policy. And even half of the very weak ocean warming trend since the 1950s might well be natural. So, “global warming” as observed doesn’t mean what most people think it means. Reply Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 8:05 AM Sorry I meant the 13 month running average. But warming is still warming, this falsifies the hypothesis of no warming put out by some. Considering no significant forcings other than greenhouse gases have been found, draw your own conclusion. I do not understand how you can comment on data from 1950 when you only have data going back to 1979. The surface temperature trend is likely to match the climate models bettter. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 8:09 AM I was referring to our published analysis of the global-deep ocean temperature changes since the mid-1950s…if you want to talk about “global warming”, that is the parameter and time period most looked to for establishing warming of the global climate system: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13143-014-0011-z Surface data have errors the satellite data don’t have, adjustments much larger than the satellite adjustments, and their global sampling is rather poor. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 8:17 AM and since I am a “lukewarmer”, I don’t ascribe to any “no warming” hypothesis. I’m not even sure what that means…it’s always warming or cooling…the question is how much of recent, rather benign warming is our fault, and what if anything can be done about it? Conflating non-zero warming with “OMG we have to do something” would be dishonest. steven mosher says: January 3, 2017 at 1:42 PM Actually the coverage is comparable even better in the time domain, the satellites structural un certainty is much higher, just compare all your versions from the first to the current to see how much your modelling assumptions drive your answer. Our adjustments are actually small during the time period, but go ahead and publish your RAW data before and after corrections for diurnal drift, orbital decay and AMSU adjustments. the fact is you have never published a raw series so that people can compare. Go ahead publish the raw data or publish your code for version 6. you wont. Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM “adjustments much larger than the satellite adjustments,” I beg to differ. Anyway, I see where this “discussion” is going. Another time. SkepticGoneWild says: January 3, 2017 at 6:40 PM Harry, No one cares. Go moan, wail, gnash your teeth, and scream “the sky is falling” elsewhere, or whatever you alarmist clowns do. The earth is better off a little warmer anyway. And the current minor warming is not unprecedented anyway. JasG says: January 3, 2017 at 7:53 PM “Actually the coverage is comparable even better in the time domain” What an outrageous untruth! Coverage is blindingly obviously inferior for the sparse land-based thermometers combined with well-known inaccurate sea data prior to 2005. For the USA (the only area of the world with decent thermometer density) all of the warming trend comes from adjustments. Whether correct or not (and since the biggest one, tobs, is pure pessimistic guesswork then that is unlikely) having all of your trend from adjustments means the data is not fit for policy. For the rest of the world the raw data is unreliable in the extreme and any adjustments could only be guesswork but should probably be more down than up thanks to well-known UHI issues at most locations; the data never having been intended for this purpose. Satellite corrections otoh are much easier because accurate calibration is possible at disparate, quality locations and tus accurate corrections can be applied to all the data at once, rather than at each thermometer adjustment being different. ie it is a scientifically accurate and unbiased process which is backed up by other satellite recons using different techniques and also by radiosondes. The land data is only backed up by itself: Regardless of how many others produce a plot it is all from the same sparse & spotty selection. Land-based data was only intended as a backup for the accurate satellite data, It is abjectly stupid or politically-motivated-reasoning to pretend they can supplant them. Where else in climate science does anyone argue that satellite data is somehow more unreliable than sparse land-based data? Answer: nowhere! Nate says: January 4, 2017 at 9:08 AM Jas. Objective observers have noted that the satellite adjustements have had much larger impacts on the trends than the surface records. For example, the most recent adjustment cut the 38y trend of the Arctic in half. Why? Because modeling and asumptions about the atmosphere are required. This track record cannot be ignored. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 8:14 PM stephen mosher…”Go ahead publish the raw data or publish your code for version 6.” Go back to your cave, you haven’t the foggiest notion of what you are saying. Publish raw data without corrections for orbital drift, etc???? Where else in science would you find such raw data? Do you see surface stations sources like NOAA publishing temp max/mins? No…they give you an average. They don’t even give you all the data these days. They slash 5000 stations from a global pool of 6500 stations and SYNTHESIZE temperatures for the 5000 in a climate model based on 1500 stations. Why do you accept that crud and whine about corrections for orbital decay? Are you going to do that yourself, or is your implication that UAH cannot be trusted? Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 8:17 PM JasG…”rather than at each thermometer adjustment being different.” As you have implied, without individual thermometer adjustments they would not be able to throw out the cooler ones while emphasizing the warmer ones. NOAA has perfected the art of obfuscating the temperature record by blatantly slashing 5000 surface stations from the global pool of 6500 then synthesizing them is a climate model. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 8:43 PM There are 7280 GHCN stations worldwide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record#/media/File:GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png That is an average of 27 thousand square miles per station, which would be a 165 X 165 mile square at the equator. What is the weather like 165 miles from where you are right now? Anything like what it is where you are? And, of course, it’s worse than this, because the stations are not uniformly distributed, being particularly dense in the US. And, they’ve been anything but uniformly cited over time. Yet, this I will say: up until the Karlization of the surface records, the surface data sets significantly agreed with the satellite records. They altered the surface data through nefarious means, and now they want to corrupt the satellite data as well or, failing that, to plant doubt regarding the satellite records’ fidelity. It’s total BS. Nate says: January 4, 2017 at 9:39 AM Bart, Bart, No I would say that the temperature anomaly (above or below average) is often quite similar 165 miles away, because weather systems are often quite large. Any errors from this will be both positive and negative and will average to near 0 when considering the whole globe. My question for you is how much of a difference to long term trends do you think comes from poor sampling? Can u estimate the size of the effect? I think you you are assuming it is much worse than it actually is. Gordon Robertson says: January 4, 2017 at 1:41 AM Bart…”There are 7280 GHCN stations worldwide…” Not all of them are used. I got the 6500 number from an old NOAA site when they were willing to admit to that. https://web.archive.org/web/20130201082455/http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/weather_stations.html Also…try this: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/gistemp/ All the NOAA and GHCN fudgings are listed and explained. Olof R says: January 4, 2017 at 3:07 AM The satellite series are much more uncertain than the surface series, claiming something else is just ridiculous.. The overall trend of the three most recent TMT-products from UAH, RSS and STAR vary from 0.08 to 0.14 C/ decade (indeed with the two latter at 0.14 C). The global surface datasets vary by far less, 0.17-0.18 C/decade. Hence, saying that the 95% confidence interval of the annual value in UAH v6 TLT is only 0.10 C, can not be true. It is maybe 0.10 if all structural uncertainty is ignored. So really, I dont think it is possible in UAH v6 TLT to tell apart 1998, 2010 and 2016 significantly.. If 0.10 C should be the typical confidence interval of satellite product, then would 2016 be significantly warmer than 1998 in UAH 5.6 TLT and RSS v4 TTT. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:03 AM Gordon Robertson says: “Wheres the proof that nitrogen and oxygen cannot independently absorb and emit energy to space” All greenhouse gases consist of molecules with three atoms or more. Only they have the vibrational and rotational states whose transitions are in the infrared. Geoff Wood says: January 4, 2017 at 12:16 PM So heated to Earth’s surface Tmax temperatures Nitrogen and Oxygen stay warm forever without GHG radiations to space? Is that what you believe David A? Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 11:30 AM Nate: The weather varies very dramatically 165 miles from where I am right now. There is snow North of me that far, and summer-like warmth 165 miles South. But, as I said, the surface data agreed with the satellite data pre-Karlization. The problem isn’t so much the data as it is the post-processing of the data. Olof R: “The satellite series are much more uncertain than the surface series…” Ridiculous. The satellite series are far more globally comprehensive, and far less altered with dubious “adjustments”. The surface sets have been virtually continuously “adjusted” to reflect the warmist bias. Prior to Karlization, the various sets were in close agreement. What changed was the surface data, and it changed dramatically, under preposterous justifications. “The global surface datasets vary by far less, 0.17-0.18 C/decade.” Real data vary. Far from being an indication of the surface sets’ worth, this is an indication that they have been manipulated to reflect a preconceived outcome. It’s a “tell”. Olof R says: January 4, 2017 at 2:55 PM Bart, you obviously don’t have a clue about all adjustments behind a satellite product, and all possible choices that have been done, sometimes completely arbitrary. And please, don’t come with silly conspiracy theories, they have no place in a serious scientific discussion. Of course data vary, but it is no good sign if different scientific teams come to widely different conclusion after analyses with the same raw data. Further, your belief in the necessity of near global coverage, is very very exaggerated. Actually, you can throw away 99.87 % of the spatial information in UAH TLT, only use 18 points worldwide, and still produce a global dataset that is nearly indistinguishable from the original. Watch this chart: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewadExwM3VOaVJBUU0 Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 3:43 PM Olof – please do not insult my intelligence in multitudinous fashion. You know nothing about me. I am well aware of the satellite sensor models and orbit dependencies. The adjustments are not arbitrary to any significant degree. Certainly not to the degree of arbitrariness associated with the notorious “bucket adjustments” to the surface records. Not even close. Again, the acid test is, all records were in agreement before the Karlization of the surface temperature record which just happened, mirabile dictu!, to extend the warming just when the models were on the verge of catastrophic failure to track reality. It’s not a “conspiracy theory” when they’re doing it right out in the open before your eyes. So please, toss the argument from incredulity (if the alarmists didn’t have logical fallacies galore, they’d have nothing at all). You may be idiot enough to believe that cock and bull story. I’m not. And, neither are a growing number of scientists and lay people who have observed the chicanery going on with the surface records. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 3:50 PM “Actually, you can throw away 99.87 % of the spatial information in UAH TLT, only use 18 points worldwide…” A carefully selected 18 points. I wonder if you have even ever heard of the Intermediate Value Theorem. You can always do this. Always. It shows nothing, because you have to know the points a priori, and you cannot know that. Look, this is very simple – more measurements are better than fewer. This is always the case. Olof R says: January 4, 2017 at 7:10 PM Bart, I said that the choices are arbitrary, not the adjustments. Have you ever heard of the Cadillac calibration choice? Goes like this: -Look, these two satellites differ by 0.2 C/ decade during the overlap. -OK, we pick the one with the lowest trend, and discard the other one “due to drifts”. Validation with independent data is obviously not needed for significant choices. However validation would suggest that the choice was completely wrong: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewaOEd5TUlTYWlMUW8 The 18 points are not carefully selected, it is the first try with a regular pattern with one point in each RATPAC region, the first level of averaging for that global dataset. If I use all 85 stations (not in a regular pattern) the global coverage validation looks like this: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewaT083ZHdiWHhieTA Why these exercises? To make sure that there is no bias involved in this validation: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_dL1shkWewaNDVmS0t1bjZjQXM David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:57 PM Geoff, I don’t understand your question. (I don’t even understand your sentence.) N2 and O2 are not greenhouse gases. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:17 PM Bart says: “But, as I said, the surface data agreed with the satellite data pre-Karlization.” I doubt it. The 30-yr trend of NOAA global surface from 6/1985 to 5/2015, just before Karl et al’s analysis, was 0.15 C/dec. The 30-yr trend of UAH v6.0beta2 for that time period is 0.11 C/decade. Both have error bars of about 0.02 C/decade (with no autocorrelation). And you’re overlooking the huge changes UAH also made to their data around that same time: http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/04/remarkable-changes-to-uah-data.html http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/04/some-big-adjustments-to-uahs-dataset.html In fact, the Karl et al changes were only about a third of the cha David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:18 PM …Meant to conclude by saying the UAH changes were about three times larger than the Karl changes: http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/06/noaas-data-changes-actually-smaller.html Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 9:09 PM “-OK, we pick the one with the lowest trend, and discard the other one due to drifts.” What is your point? Your target is specifically UAH, but the difference between UAH and RSS is negligible, amounting to essentially a constant offset, which does not matter for diagnosing trends or any other variable behavior http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/rss/offset:-0.09 You are trying to make a big deal out of a negligible difference in order to cast aspersions. Why are you doing this? What is your objective? Why do you feel your ends justify such dishonest means? “The 18 points are not carefully selected, it is the first try with a regular pattern…” A regular (by which I assume you mean uniformly distributed) pattern is, in fact, a careful selection. The surface data are not uniformly distributed. Again, for the zillionth time, the big difference between the surface sets and the satellite sets is that the former have been manipulated, in real time, right before our eyes. Prior to 2015, there was good agreement between all the temperature sets. Now, they are divergent. What changed? Fudges put in place by NOAA, that’s what. You must know this. You must know that you are arguing in favor of manipulating data to arrive at a preconceived answer. So, I must ask again, why are you doing this? What is your objective? Why do you feel your ends justify such dishonest means? Scott says: January 4, 2017 at 11:00 PM David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:03 AM All greenhouse gases consist of molecules with three atoms or more. Only they have the vibrational and rotational states whose transitions are in the infrared. I am so tired of seeing this egregiously incorrect notion repeated. Diatomic molecules CAN absorb IR radiation. The criterion for IR activity is a change in dipole moment of the molecule. This is sophomore-level undergrad stuff. Many courses probably even teach it at the freshmen level too. I certainly learned it at the age of no more than 20. Easily shown with a quick Google search for IR spectrum of carbon monoxide. In practice, heteronuclear diatomic molecules only have a small impact on the greenhouse effect because none of these species have a long atmospheric lifetime, but this is no excuse for incorrect statements like the above. It really bothers me that I’ve seen the above stated by so many AGWer’s. It’s like there’s some sort of talking-point list that they go to in order to get their information and never actually learned the fundamentals. What bothers me even more is that I’ve never seen an anti-AGWer ever refute this poor mistake. Seems like no one actually understands the fundamentals, they just memorize a bunch of talking points. Exactly like the majority of both academics and industrial STEM people…just all work off of memorization and don’t actually understand how the world works. This ends up with people knowing “science” by reading/regurgitating conclusions rather than actually understanding the data/analysis/assumptions. I swear that the number of STEM people that actually understand things, invent new stuff, don’t just memorize, etc is on the order of 5% or less. Outside of STEM that number might even be lower… Have a nice day, -Scott Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 11:54 AM Maybe 10%, Scott. Sturgeon’s Law is very general, and applies in STEM fields as well as any other. Ceist says: January 5, 2017 at 7:42 PM Carl Mears from RSS disagrees with you about errors and adjustments “Carl Mears, senior scientist for Remote Sensing Systems, told The Associated Press in an email: “The satellite measurements do not measure the surface warming. They are measurements of the average temperature of thick layers of the atmosphere” about 50,000 feet off the ground.” http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d77eaa1018554de2b3582917c84fa620/earths-temperature-depends-where-you-put-thermometer “For impacts on human society and the environment, the surface data are more important,” Mears said. Mears said his analysis of his own satellite data has five times the margin of error of ground measurements. That’s because satellites use complex mathematical algorithms and thousands of bits of code to translate wavelength measurements into temperature readings” Also: RSS Press release and their published paper on V4 http://images.remss.com/papers/rsstech/Jan_5_2017_news_release.pdf Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:35 AM Scott…”The criterion for IR activity is a change in dipole moment of the molecule”. You are right that there’s a lot of misinformation about atoms/molecules. Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:38 AM Ceist…”Carl Mears from RSS disagrees with you about errors and adjustments” Has it ever occurred to you that the guy who runs the site may be lying through his teeth and has intentionally misquoted Mears? AMSU units measure at different frequencies and one frequency band measures oxygen near the surface. He claimed Mears stated that in an email. Yeah…sure. MarcT77 says: January 7, 2017 at 4:15 PM If different models were used to account for UHI, I wonder how much spread would be found among the different reconstructions from weather stations. Right now, satellite reconstructions consider everything that could affect measurements, therefore they have more temporal instability when better models come out. Weather station based reconstruction do not consider all the possibilities of contammination and they all use the homogenization technics, so they have a little bit more temporal stability. I wish there was at least one weather station reconstruction that would attempt to modelize how the diurnal temperature range should change with the increase in CO2 instead of using the homogenized value. Dan Pangburn says: January 3, 2017 at 3:36 PM Har – “Considering no significant forcings other than greenhouse gases have been found” is not true. See http://irjes.com/Papers/vol5-issue11/E5113145.pdf Reply Adrian Roman says: January 3, 2017 at 4:07 PM It was an appeal to ignorance. It should be either ignored or ridiculed, one should not allow switching the burden of proof like that. Anyway, a dynamical system does not need a ‘forcing’ to change. What ‘forcing’ makes a double-pendulum flip? Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 5:15 PM Exactly, Adrian. The massively coupled system driving the Earth’s climate has beaucoups mechanisms for storage and release of energy on extraordinarily long time scales. Far more than a relatively simple double pendulum. This argument from ignorance reveals only the ignorance of the people who promote it. Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 5:55 PM I stand by what I say, and I would not call the attribution evidence present in the IPCC AR5 report an “argument from ignorance”. Anyway I will let you dissenters spin your arguments as usual. Some other time. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 6:16 PM I don’t care if you stand on your head. It’s a dumb argument. If the IPCC is making it, that makes them ipso facto otnay ootay ightbray. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:47 PM Adrian Roman says: “Anyway, a dynamical system does not need a forcing to change. What forcing makes a double-pendulum flip?” Start your double pendulum (or simple pendulum) and let it run without forcings. Eventually it will come to rest. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 7:09 PM “Eventually it will come to rest.” Not if it has an external power source, like say one of these gadgets”. The Earth’s climate has an external power source. We call it the Sun. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 8:07 PM DA…”Start your double pendulum (or simple pendulum) and let it run without forcings. Eventually it will come to rest.” Yes…due to the Mother of all Forces…gravity. I still call them forces, forcings coming from differential equation theory and representing fictitious forces. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 8:54 PM “Yesdue to the Mother of all Forcesgravity.” No, not gravity. Gravity is a conservative force. The culprit is friction, a negative feedback that dissipates energy, allowing the system to descend to its lowest energy state. Such negative feedbacks are endemic to the natural order of things – energy always wants to flee through any escape hole it can find. Which is why the notion of aggregate positive feedback from CO2 has always been speculative at best, and completely unsupported by the data. But, that’s beside the point. The point here is the Earth, like any complex system in the universe, has a wide spectrum of response modes that can be continually excited by random forcing, and produce non-intuitive behavior when one does not know what they are. Under such conditions, the hubris and utter fatuousness of trying to finger the culprit for observed warming by subtracting out known forcings, and assigning whatever is left to anthropogenic impropriety is sublime in its stupidity. Geoff Wood says: January 4, 2017 at 2:12 PM Gravity produces most of the Universe’s entropy. It is the ‘Mother’ of spontaneous processes that follow. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 11:59 PM Adrian Roman “a dynamical system does not need a forcing to change. What forcing makes a double-pendulum flip?” You won’t find the term forcing used in physics. It’s a reference from forcing function as used in differential equation theory. Since differential equations are used in climate models, the modelers have dropped the function part and incorrectly tried to apply forcing as a real force in the real world. A forcing is a fictitious force that applies only to the fiction in a climate model. Gordon Robertson says: January 4, 2017 at 4:46 AM Dan Pangburn… from your paper…”The only way that energy can significantly leave earth is by thermal radiation. Only solid or liquid bodies and greenhouse gases(ghg) can absorb/emit in the wavelength range of terrestrial radiation. Non-ghg gases must transfer energy to ghg gases (or liquid or solid bodies) for this energy to be radiated”. Where’s the proof that nitrogen and oxygen cannot independently absorb and emit energy to space? Just asking. If that’s the case then neither N2 nor O2 will ever warm up or cool down other than through conduction. It is well know that both N2 and O2 both emit and absorb photons of EM. The ideal gas law states that PV = nRT. Or T = PV/nR. Therefore the gas temperature is proportional to the pressure with volume held constant or to the volume with pressure held constant. It also states that temperature is inversely proportional to the number of atoms in a volume. Therefore you can change the temperature of a gas by changing the volume, the pressure, or the number of atoms involved in a given volume. I am not making inferences from this but it’s obvious that matter as a gas can change temperature without radiation necessarily being emitted or absorbed as described for GHGs. If you have warmed N2 and O2 rising naturally to a higher altitude, as it rises it’s temperature will fall due to the lowered effect of gravity (change of pressure). Part of the reason for cooling is that there is less collisions between molecules. However, with reduced collisions how does the atom cool? It must obviously radiate away energy gained due to collisions. I am further positing that as N2 and O2 warm and rise to higher altitudes they have the capability of radiating energy to a cooler atmosphere. They may not do it at terrestrial IR frequencies but they have the ability to cool through radiation with no GHGs present or other solids or liquids. It needs to be understood that temperature and thermal energy require atoms. The less the number of atoms the lower the temperature. Therefore as you get higher in altitude and gases thin out the temperature drops. As a warmer gas at a lower altitude rises and thins it will cool naturally. N2 and O2 should cool naturally at higher altitudes by radiating away excess kinetic energy they gained from collisions at higher densities. To study that deeper, we’d have to examine at the atomic level why an atom cools. Certainly radiation of photons is one way, but why can’t N2 and O2 radiate photons? It’s not right to claim they can’t because they do. They do it at different frequencies than water vapour and CO2. Why an atom gains or loses kinetic energy, which is thermal energy is a complex problem. It involves all energy levels in an atom. I think AGW theory has simplified the problem till it has gotten stupid (see link below). There’s no reason why N2 or O2 cannot radiate energy to space at higher altitudes as well as CO2 or water vapour. If we are concerned only with terrestrial radiation then I get the point. However, 99%+ of the atmosphere is N2 and O2 and to claim they cannot absorb solar energy and emit to space seems incorrect. Atoms absorb energy based on the difference in energy between energy shells. Any EM suiting that difference will be absorbed. Other EM will be rejected. I am just posing the question. It seems to be accepted that the temperature of 99%+ of the atmosphere, made up of N2 and O2, has nothing to do with the N2 and O2, and that it can only warm and cool via GHGs. I think that’s somewhat absurd and this article poses some interesting questions. http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2010/02/the_hidden_flaw_in_greenhouse.html Nate says: January 4, 2017 at 6:03 PM Gordon. That article is full of wrong science. And it has been debunked before. His idea that gases like n2 or o2 radiate or absorb in IR range is factually incorrect. IR from the earth measured above the atmosphere clearly shows where co2 and h2o absrbs it and the rest passes through. Dan Pangburn says: January 4, 2017 at 3:35 PM Gor Gases absorb/emit at specific wavelengths. That is what makes spectroscopy work. N2 and O2 do not absorb/emit at wavelengths of significant terrestrial EMR (6-100 microns). how does the atom cool? does not have meaning. Atoms dont have temperature, they have velocity which causes temperature (molecular vibration) in walls they impact, like thermometers. Geoff Wood says: January 4, 2017 at 3:53 PM 1/2mv(mean)^2= 1/2kT per degree of freedom for a gas David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:21 PM Bart says: “Not if it has an external power source, like say one of these gadgets.” Then it has a forcing. The original point was involved a lack of forcings. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/01/global-satellites-2016-not-statistically-warmer-than-1998/#comment-232690 David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:23 PM Gordon Robertson says: “A forcing is a fictitious force that applies only to the fiction in a climate model.” Nope. In climate science, a forcing is essentially an energy input to the system, usually measured in W/m2. Changes in solar irradiance are a forcing, just as are changes in GHGs and aerosols. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 9:47 PM “Then it has a forcing.” Of course it does. But, it does not have to be a clearly identifiable forcing. It can be something that happened long ago, and the response is only now fading. It can be something very small and/or random and easily overlooked that happens to excite a resonance. Assuming that something does not exist simply because you do not know about it leads to many false conclusions, and is the reason that argumentum ad ignorantiam has been catalogued as a fundamental logical fallacy since antiquity. Gordon Robertson says: January 5, 2017 at 2:02 AM Dan…”Atoms dont have temperature, they have velocity which causes temperature (molecular vibration) in walls they impact, like thermometers”. So, in a bar of pure iron, the temperature is decided by atomic velocities???? It’s understood that no one can measure the temperature of an individual atom but in a gas the average kinetic energy of all the atoms/molecules is the temperature. If you removed all atoms from a container it would have no measurable temperature. If you wanted to be silly you could use Avogadro’s number on the estimated number of atoms to determine the average temperature of an individual atom. What I’m trying to say is this. If you know the temperature of a gas is the average kinetic energy of all atoms, then one atom must have a temperature. I don’t like the word temperature because it is a human invention based on the freezing point and boiling point of water. Temperature is a relative level of thermal energy. I prefer to think of the kinetic energy of atoms as being their thermal energy. The temperature of atoms is related to their kinetic energy and that is dependent on the energy states in which their electrons reside. When gas atoms/molecules collide it is the electrons absorbing energy that raises their KE hence their thermal energy. The only other ways an atom can absorb energy is through an electron absorbing EM and through interactions with sub-atomic particles. In a bar of pure iron, the iron atoms are bound by valence electrons and the atoms vibrate atom to atom. Some people have modeled them having springs between the atoms. When one end of the bar is heated by a torch, the transferred thermal energy is in turn transferred atom to atom via valence electrons, causing each atom to vibrate more in their covalent bonds. That vibration is heat and Clausius related the motion to work, heat and work being equivalent. Why they move and gain momentum in a gas is a mystery. However, their kinetic energies have already been determined by the distance their electrons have moved from ground state. Of course, no one really knows anything about this other than through crude experiments trying to verify the fudged math in quantum theory. I was just watching a film of a Feynman lecture. He freely admitted he knows nothing about the reality but I stayed with his math till he started getting ridiculous. I say ridiculous because he and others have had to introduce probability theory to the examination and when they do that, as Planck has admitted, the science can no longer be visualized. That’s what troubled Einstein and Schrodinger about quantum theory, that it was too far removed from observed reality. Dan Pangburn says: January 5, 2017 at 10:27 PM Gor It never dawned on me that anyone here would not know I was talking about gas molecules as having velocity. As an engineer, I never argue with what works. Kinetic theory of gases works. It says gas atoms (above absolute zero) have velocity and it is expressed as temperature and pressure of the gas. I noticed you never mention pressure. This site has a calculator that relates all this stuff: http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/kinetic/frecol.html Feynman talks about the velocity of molecules giving rise to temperature and pressure in Volume 1, Chapter 1 of his lecture series. (Google Feynman lectures on physics) provided by Caltech. It works that gas atoms gain energy and momentum from the energy and momentum of the photons they absorb (and/or contact with vibrating atoms in container walls). I suspect that the observation that gas molecules absorb photons (of appropriate wavelength) has something to do with the equivalence of mass and energy, but IMO I really dont need to know that to research the cause of climate change. I enjoyed physics and probably would have gone that way but the pragmatist in me thought I would do better as an engineer (applying physics for the benefit of man). I sometimes quote, or paraphrase Feynman and have seen some of his lectures on line. I had a great career working on, among other things, rockets, satellites (including AMSU), nuclear power, even smart artillery projectiles. Digging deeper into physics and a smidgeon of QM has been interesting. I have not yet found anything credible that refutes my findings and my assessment does a convincing job of matching observations for all the years of reasonably accurate reported average global temperature measurements. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 11:52 AM Maybe 10%, Scott. Sturgeon’s Law is very general, and applies in STEM fields as in just about any other ðŸ˜‰ Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 8:55 AM Dr. Roy, based on an observed warming to date of 0.9K, a trend rate of 0.12K per decade would lead to an aggregate warming of about 1.94K by 2100. I notice that you make no mention of whether your 50% comparison is statistically significant in its own right, and given the shortness of the period in the satellite record I suspect that it is within expected deviation from the models. We can certainly say that based on the trend rate from your own data set, the 2K target by end of century will be very close to being exceeded even given that the warming rate does not rise. Perhaps we should allow that a moment to sink in. Three, two one… That is to say, that if we were to stop adding CO2e to the atmosphere today, then the warming being produced by the gases already in the atmosphere, without adjusting for decay in the concentrations, would put us very close indeed to the RPC6.0 scenario’s outcome. That is a medium-emissions outcome, whereas stopping emissions tomorrow would be a very low emissions scenario. So it looks as if the model results are actually being exceeded to me. Reading off the graph, however (see link), the trend rate looks just about right to my eye. Can you point us to model results which show a trend rate of twice 0.12K/decade in 2016? This seems to be an important assertion and I would like to know that we are talking about the same set of predictions. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-07/scenariotempgraph_0.jpg Reply Robert Austin says: January 3, 2017 at 11:52 AM “Three, two one” How’s about waiting for the present El Nino to finish before making conclusions about trends Dr. Spenser’s data set. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 2:09 PM Seems reasonable. Would you like to tell the person making conclusions? David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:49 PM Last year’s El Nino has been over for a few months. JasG says: January 3, 2017 at 8:14 PM Better yet lets wait for the coming la nina cooling to end in a few years. So far all we have is pessimistic guesswork from people who wrongly predicted this el nino would be a flop and who previously wrongly predicted a parabolic rise in temperature rather than the current pause/slowdown (that was, in fact, predicted by many skeptics including me in 2003). Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:49 AM If there is a la Nina cooling. Sometimes it goes neutral and then returns to the previous estate. Please note: “Much-touted global warming pause never happened” http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/06/much-touted-global-warming-pause-never-happened “previously wrongly predicted a parabolic rise in temperature” Actually, if you run an exponential regression line on Dr. Roy’s data you get a slowly rising curve, exactly as one would predict. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 5:50 PM “Dr. Roy, based on an observed warming to date of 0.9K, a trend rate of 0.12K per decade would lead to an aggregate warming of about 1.94K by 2100.” You might want to check that math, given that there are only about 8.3 decades left until 2100. Reply FTOP says: January 3, 2017 at 7:03 PM Better yet, from El Nio to El Nio we have 17 years and .02. This represents peak warming in the 30+ year satellite record. Since it is warming that we are worried about, we should use these peaks to extrapolate. That is .0117 per decade so in 8.3 decades we should see .09 warming creating an anomaly of .59. Sounds catastrophic to me. /sarc Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:16 AM 0.91 + 0.0123894408 * 83 = 1.9383235864 ~= 1.94 Where problem? Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:18 AM “This represents peak warming in the 30+ year satellite record.” Of course it does. Arf. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 12:08 PM I see. So, you extrapolated a linear trend out to 2100, then compared it to a scenario in which the slope declines over time (light blue line), and pronounced them in agreement? Mmm… no. You surely aren’t referring to the gold line, as that one clearly has a slope of about 0.24 degC/decade, which is double the trend line slope over the entire data record. My advice – temperatures are currently plummeting with the end of the El Nino. Wait a year, and see if you think there is still a uniform trend. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:48 PM There is no scientific reason to linearly extrapolate 40 yr of UAH data to 2100, due to positive feedbacks expected this century. Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 7:12 PM Yes, those elusive positive feedbacks that have utterly failed to rear their heads. Sneaky little devils. JasG says: January 3, 2017 at 7:21 PM There is no justification for anything worse than linear extrapolation given that the rate of warming has been steadily reducing for 30 years while the rate of CO2 emissions has increased in the same period because a) the much vaunted but little proven positive feedbacks either are not there or were overcome by unexpected natural mechanisms. If the former then the warming will be the unalarming & beneficial no-feedback value of 1K/century, if the latter then warming prior to the 1998 shift was likely natural too. Nobody now should expect anything. With the abject failure of the climate models (which were never fit for the purpose anyway) there is no scientific case for any manmade warming whatsoever. In a less ideologically-motivated field of science the entire effort would have been defunded by now. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 7:57 PM DA…”There is no scientific reason to linearly extrapolate 40 yr of UAH data to 2100, due to positive feedbacks expected this century”. You don’t have a clue what a positive feedback is. And, you are talking around the subject which is that 2016 is not warmer than 1998 by enough to talk about. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:26 PM Bart says: “Yes, those elusive positive feedbacks that have utterly failed to rear their heads. Sneaky little devils.” The water vapor feedback is certainly real, and it’s been observed: IPCC 5AR WG1 Ch2 Figs 2.30 & 2.31 documents positive trends in water vapor in multiple datasets. “Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence,” Katharine M. Willett et al, Nature Vol 449\| 11 October 2007\| doi:10.1038/nature06207. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v449/n7163/abs/nature06207.html “Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content,” B. D. Santer et al, PNAS 2013. http://www.pnas.org/content/104/39/15248.abstract “How much more rain will global warming bring?” F.J. Wentz, Science (2007), 317, 233235. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/317/5835/233 David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 8:28 PM The Arctic ice-albedo feedback has been found too: “Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice,” Kristina Pistone et al, PNAS v111 n9 pp 3322-3326 (2014). http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3322.abstract Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 9:28 PM GIGO studies using models do not confirm positive water vapor feedback, David. What would confirm it would be temperatures rising relentlessly. But, they aren’t. At the current rate they are plunging, we will be back to pre-2000 levels within a few months. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 9:49 PM “What would confirm it would be temperatures rising relentlessly.” I should have said, a necessary condition to confirm it would be… Confirmation requires sufficiency as well. Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:21 AM “There is no scientific reason to linearly extrapolate 40 yr of UAH data to 2100, due to positive feedbacks expected this century.” Entirely true. If you have a better way to estimate what the current rate ought to be, go right ahead. Personally, I’d like to see what the models previously predicted for the rates measurable at the end of 2016, but the linear rate is a starting point, David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:39 PM Bart says: “GIGO studies using models do not confirm positive water vapor feedback, David.” Your excuses are pathetic. You’re a conspiracy theorist. Any result you like is fine, and any you don’t like is because scientists commit fraud or input garbage. And you think that’s convincing? It’s pathetic and it’s lazy and it demonstrates little knowledge. You aren’t the only honest person in the world, and you have no idea of the quality of data these professional scientists put into their calculations. You’re the best example of a pure denier that I’ve come across in a long time. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:14 PM It’s not a conspiracy theory when they’re doing it right in front of you. Sorry. The climate establishment already blew their credibility. You won’t get it back. Maybe you should read some Aesop’s fables for enlightenment. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:09 PM Bart says: “Its not a conspiracy theory when theyre doing it right in front of you.” Said with no evidence presented whatsoever. As always. You’re not qualified to judge the credibility of the climate establishment. (And I’m not a part of it.) David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:11 PM BTW, Bart, why are the input data used in the water vapor studies “garbage.” Specifically. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:57 PM Crickets, Bart? Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:18 PM Putting me to sleep. Straw men are boring. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 8:03 PM Eliott…”Dr. Roy, based on an observed warming to date of 0.9K, a trend rate of 0.12K per decade would lead to an aggregate warming of about 1.94K by 2100″. The 0.12C/decade trend was derived largely from a recovery from cooling prior to the 1998 El Nino. Show me a 0.12C/decade trend from 1998 – 2015. The IPCC has already admitted there was no significant trend (could have been cooling according to error margins) from 1998 – 2012. We’ve had 18 years with no significant trend, how do you plan to turn that into 0.12C/decade? Reply barry says: January 4, 2017 at 8:23 AM Use. All. The. Data. Doing that gives a statistically significant result. Using the data from 1998 to 2012 gives you no result that can be relied on. Not flat, not cooling, not warming. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 4:20 PM “Use. All. The. Data.” Wrong. Fitting a linear trend to the full set of data is imposing a model of steadily changing temperature upon the data. This is not a stationary system. It is time varying with unknown correlation times, but very likely much longer than the available data record. For instance if, as it appears, there is a strong ~60 year cyclical correlation in the system, then 30 years is the worst possible interval to choose to divine properties, because the result will be influenced in the opposite direction in the succeeding 30 year time interval. There is nothing wrong with using a shortened data set to give an indication of where things are going. You just have to be cautious about drawing conclusions. “Doing that gives a statistically significant result.” No, it doesn’t. In order to test for statistical significance, you must have a valid statistical model. Pathetic attempts at divining statistical significance typically assume an AR(1) model, with no prior justification. In fact, the data are very likely at least 2nd order correlated. Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:24 AM “The 0.12C/decade trend was derived largely from a recovery from cooling prior to the 1998 El Nino. Show me a 0.12C/decade trend from 1998 2015.” It’s the linear trend rate for the entire data set. If you use an exponential fit, for instance, you get a slightly higher rate at the end. I’d be delighted to see ANY method that can yield a fit for the whole data set that does not show unambiguous warming. Ceist says: January 6, 2017 at 9:52 AM . Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:38 AM CeistCarl Mears from RSS disagrees with you about errors and adjustments Has it ever occurred to you that the guy who runs the site may be lying through his teeth and has intentionally misquoted Mears? AMSU units measure at different frequencies and one frequency band measures oxygen near the surface. He claimed Mears stated that in an email. Yeahsure. Gordon, Carl Mears says the same thing in a video interview. Why do you automatically assume someone is lying just because you don’t like what they say? Here’s an interview with Carl Mears https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BnkI5vqr_0 barry says: January 7, 2017 at 9:08 PM Wrong. Fitting a linear trend to the full set of data is imposing a model of steadily changing temperature upon the data. Skeptics use only linear trend models for the shorter period since 1998. On that basis it does not achieve statistical significance (which is a main point in the OP on a different matter). But statistical significance is achieved with a linear model for the full period by a wide margin. What we can say with great confidence is that overall, warming has occurred over the period. We cannot say anything about temp trends since 1998. This is not a stationary system. It is time varying with unknown correlation times, but very likely much longer than the available data record. And I’m sure you’ve made this point when a skeptic emphasises the even shorter period from 1998. Right? (Answer that question honestly in your own mind. See what you come up with) There is nothing wrong with using a shortened data set to give an indication of where things are going. You just have to be cautious about drawing conclusions. Too short data sets give little indication. If the slope is near zero, for example, and the uncertainty is +/- 5, then you have no call saying anything about the trend whatsoever. The uncertainty overwhelms any indication. Doing that gives a statistically significant result. No, it doesnt. Yes, it does. In order to test for statistical significance, you must have a valid statistical model. Pathetic attempts at divining statistical significance typically assume an AR(1) model, with no prior justification. In fact, the data are very likely at least 2nd order correlated. Well ante up, my friend. Apply a good statistical model to the data and explain whether and how it indicates a trend. cb750 says: January 4, 2017 at 12:18 AM You can’t merely draw a line through data points and make an assumption about something in 100 years. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:26 AM “You cant merely draw a line through data points and make an assumption about something in 100 years.” You certainly can’t. That’s what the models are for. Hence, I would like to see what trend rate they predicted for the period covered by Dr. Roy’s data. The linear trend extrapolation simply serves to show that the current rates are about right for the simplest conceivable scenario. Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:07 PM Shame UAH5.6 won’t be out for awhile. Let’s plugin UAH6.0 for December instead to see how different the two datasets are! _UAH_5.6_ 1998 (J-D): +0.42 2016 (J-N): +0.60 _UAH_6.0_ 1998 (J-D): +0.48 2016 (J-D): +0.50 _UAH_5.6_PLUS_DEC_6.0 1998 (J-D): +0.42 2016 (J-N): +0.57 Gee I wonder what the lower stratosphere looks like… oh I guess there aren’t numbers for December there yet. _UAH_5.6_ 1998 (J-D): -0.29 2016 (J-N): -0.52 _UAH_6.0_ 1998 (J-D): -0.25 2016 (J-N): -0.53 Hmm… quite the cooling trend! Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:26 PM I wonder – hey Dr. Spencer, since you support greenhouse theory… given that total solar irradiance hasn’t appreciably changed, and that TMT & the Tropopause haven’t warned nearly enough to offset the difference: Why are 1998 TLT & TLS so unbalanced compared to 2016? Reply Greven says: January 7, 2017 at 7:47 PM Oh hey UAH 5.6 updated. v5.6 Dec 2016 is +0.14 higher than the v6.0 Dec 2016. Also, Arctic shows as +0.55 for v5.6 Dec 2016 compared with -0.00 for v6.0 Dec 2016. Which is really weird, given that the Arctic was so very warm during December and got above freezing at least in one recording. Your data methodology is flawed, Dr. Spencer. Reply cb750 says: January 4, 2017 at 12:24 AM Can I ask you Dr. Spencer have you considered the process of averaging temp data to actually detrimental to the process of understanding climate? Averages hide anomalies. 50,50,50,50 avg = 50. 110,-10,40,60 avg = 50. Which data set is an issue? I would imagine averaging the earth’s temps hides anomalies we should be concerned about. Warming won’t happen on a global scale, it will happen locally. And statistically you don’t average unrelated items. Should Britain’s temps be averaged with Argentina’s? Does that even mean anything? Reply michael blazewicz says: January 4, 2017 at 1:28 AM But doesn’t your method largely ignore ocean temperatures ? And aren’t ocean temperatures a major factor for analysing weather and climate ? 2016 was still statistically the hottest year on record by your measurements, and the trend is unmistakable. Reply Christopher Winter says: January 6, 2017 at 10:57 AM In your view, Dr. Spencer, does “ocean acidification” mean what most people think it means? Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 8:04 AM Harry, the entire period is parallel to the warming phase of the 60-70 year AMO cycle. What happens to the trend when the AMO warming is removed? Chances are it looks a lot like the cooling from 1945-1980. What’s more interesting is pretty much all the warming from the El Nino is now gone. Vanished. Why all the pushing of warming by the media in the last couple of years when it was all just weather? It would seem a bigger question is when will the pause return and if it does what does that do to your views on AGW. Reply Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 8:10 AM You ask a lot of rhetorical questions I think. Perhaps you can gather your data and post an article somewhere. “It would seem a bigger question is when will the pause return and if it does what does that do to your views on AGW.” Silly comment – my views will not change anything. And neither will yours. Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 8:22 AM The data speaks for itself. I was just curious if your opinion was driven by data. It doesn’t appear like it is. That would seem to indicate your views are religious in nature. Reply Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 5:58 PM “religious in nature.” No, I leave religion to the signatories of the Cornwall Declaration. I stick to science. Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 7:55 PM Harry..”Silly comment my views will not change anything. And neither will yours.” Hopefully we are talking about data, which is right in front of you on the graph above. The IPCC declared 1998 – 2012 as a ‘warming hiatus’. If you can’t see the hiatus during that period you won’t recognize it even if the running average continues to drop and averages out the current EN warming. Many people commenting on this blog are in total denial regarding that hiatus even though their gods at the IPCC have admitted to it. NOAA, under the guidance of the Obama administration has tried to erase the hiatus retroactively using scientific misconduct. Reply Nate says: January 3, 2017 at 10:31 AM Three cheers for insignificance! Some alternative headlines with significance: Record warmest two year period: .14 higher Record warmest three year period: .12 higher Record warmest four year period: .10 higher consecutive calendar years, non-overlapping Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 7:49 PM Nate…”Record warmest two year period: .14 higher Record warmest three year period: .12 higher Record warmest four year period: .10 higher” Are you quoting the NOAA propaganda again? Reply Nate says: January 4, 2017 at 8:54 AM No, these are the records in the UAH data. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 9:12 PM Nate: +1 Gordon Robertson says: January 3, 2017 at 7:47 PM Harry…”The chart clearly shows a global warming trend, especially the 5 year average.” Harry…look back to 1998 and see what became of that running average the following year, and for the next 18 years. There’s not enough data in yet to see where the running average is going. Reply Bryan says: January 3, 2017 at 7:51 AM Thermometers claiming to measure to 1/100 th of a degree? Would this anomaly be written as 0.05 ( + or -) 0.001 degree Celsius ? Reply Harry Twinotter says: January 3, 2017 at 7:51 AM Don’t you think the headline is dishonest – why didn’t you say 2016 Warmest Year on Record? Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 8:00 AM because, as I said, they are basically tied, statistically. So to say 2016 is the warmest would be dishonest, since it ignores uncertainty in the measurements: a 0.02 deg. C change over 18 years cannot be reliably measured with any of our temperature monitoring systems. Reply Kevin says: January 3, 2017 at 8:12 AM Just say “2016 Likely Warmest Year on Record” which would incorporate both the fact that the measurements have 2016 ahead of ’98 but not with certainty. Reply argus says: January 3, 2017 at 9:17 AM The more I think about it, the more I find Dr Spencer’s headline appropriate. The cooling in December is a pretty big event, and with NASA and others saying for months and months that 2016 would be the hottest year on record, it turns out, statistically, it ends indistinguishable from a previous strong el nino year. His headline may leave super warmers wanting, but it’s certainly not dishonest. Reply MarkB says: January 3, 2017 at 12:15 PM Assuming you’re referring to Gavin Schmidt’s projections and are genuinely interested in being fair, he’s clearly shown analysis using the GISS LOTI surface temperature data set. John says: January 4, 2017 at 4:25 AM Although I agree they were different datasets, that to me is all the more puzzling. If you think about how the greenhouse effect is supposed to work, there isn’t a margin for the surface to warm and not the lower tropospheric temperature. All be it, both warmed in this case, but not at the same rate. If anything, the lower tropospheric temperature should show the warming prior to the surface. That leaves 3 possible conclusions. 1. The method of distinguishing the lower tropospheric temperature is wrong. 2. There is something wrong with how the surface temperature is measured (then maybe adjusted. 3. Not enough surface sites to reflect the real climate. Of course, it doesn’t even need to be just one of those, it could be all three or it could be two. I really hope scientific spending is switched from models to measurements in the near future, as measurements appear to be woefully lacking and until it is solved, the question continues. Ric Werme says: January 3, 2017 at 10:28 AM I think you could say “likely warmest” if there were only two years with any chance of being the warmest. That may be the case given how far back 2010 and the cluster headed by 2015 are. Suppose there was another year that matched 1998, then 2016 could have a 40% chance of being the warmest and each of the other two could have a 30% chance. I.e. 2016 would not likely be the warmest year, one of the other two would be. Didn’t Gavin and GISS have to backtrack on a claim that 2015 was the warmest year? Reply Ric Werme says: January 3, 2017 at 11:55 AM I replied with four links here, but they never showed. Perhaps a spam filter ate them. Here are two of them. And it was 2014 I was thinking of. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915061/Nasa-climate-scientists-said-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.htm http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/01/18/update-feds-conning-the-public-scientists-accuse-nasa-of-misleading-lying-about-hottest-year-claim/ Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 8:21 AM I have to agree with Harry here, Dr. Roy. After spending several months adding entirely spurious data points to your graphs to show how unlikely it is that a record will be set, your graph now shows that a record has been set. (You also pointed out at one juncture that just comparing the two peaks would say more about the relative sizes of two el Nino events, I might add.) Now a record has been set and you are not saying, “A record has been set,” or “I was wrong, a record has been set after all.” Instead you are using language designed to give the impression that setting a record is not actually that important after all. Technically very true. But it doesn’t look especially ingenuous. Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 8:25 AM If everything else was equal it might be useful to note a record. However, with the AMO driving far more Arctic warming it is likely not a record if that effect was removed. I wonder what data looks if you removed the Arctic? Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 8:33 AM I wonder why one would want to remove the Arctic? TheFinalNail says: January 3, 2017 at 8:43 AM “I wonder what data looks if you removed the Arctic?” Quite right, Richard M. Let’s remove the Arctic and thus reduce global warming. TFN Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 8:51 AM Eliott, the AMO is a known long term cycle. If we want to understand the real long term trend in global temperatures (and have some chance to understand the effect of CO2 increases) we must remove other factors which influence temperature over shorter periods. Maybe you don’t want to know the trend? Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 2:12 PM ” we must remove other factors which influence temperature over shorter periods” Just removing the region that is warming the fastest – and is predicted to warm fastest – seems a very poor way of doing this. Normally one would correct for the cycle and/or look for further lines of evidence. Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 10:43 AM can I remind you of what I said in the last monthly update?: “It should be pointed out that 2016 will end up being 0.03-0.04 deg. C warmer than 1998, which is probably not a statistically significant difference given the uncertainties in the satellite dataset adjustments.” But rather than my prediction that 2016 would be 0.03-0.04 C warming, it’s now only 0.02 C warmer. So, I think I’m being consistent. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:52 AM “But rather than my prediction that 2016 would be 0.03-0.04 C warming, its now only 0.02 C warmer. So, I think Im being consistent.” Does not look consistent to me, rather biased. You were hoping for no record, so you started to downplay the record before it even occured. Climatechange4realz says: January 3, 2017 at 3:55 PM He made one little mistake! So what? Our government has made numerous mistakes through the century using terms like global cooling in the 70s. Global warming in the 80s and last but not least climate change to start the 21st century simply because the climate is changing so they didn’t want to embarrass themselves for the past 19 years saying that the earth is warming when the really is none. Even if it is 0.04 degrees C warmer does they really matter. We’re talking about a number less then 0. Not just 0 but less do you realize how small that is. And it’s not like a string of record warm years were broken over the past 19 years like the MSM claims! If that were true i wouldn’t be saying this but it isn’t. 2016 just happened to be warmer then 1998 by 0.04 degrees not one thousand degrees but 0.04 degrees. Face it your man made climate change agenda is going down the drain! Sods mother says: January 3, 2017 at 8:59 PM Sod, did you remember to take your meds today honey? Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 2:33 PM “So, I think Im being consistent.” Well, perhaps. We generally find ourselves to be consistent. I think by the time the November datum appeared it was pretty obvious that a sufficient drop was not likely to appear to prevent a record being set, so this appears to be hedging your bets after the fact, but I could be being unfair. But as I also said a few months ago, I always find the obsession with calendar years a bit odd anyway. I wouldn’t make so much of them, myself. As a matter of interest, just how large would the increment have to be to become statistically significant for that period in that dataset anyway? I suspect, and may try to calculate tomorrow if I am feeling sufficiently compost mentis, that it would represent a trend rate higher than we could possibly have cause to expect. You said yourself that the peak-to-peak interval tells us more about the size of the el Nino events than about the underlying trend. It is basically only two data points, closer together than the IPCC’s definitional period of 30 years for “climate”. As the trend rate over 18 years would yield an underlying increment of about 0.2K, and given that the trend rate comes from the very same data set, I would surmise that the observed increment of 0.02K is also not statistically significantly different to the expected increment of 0.2K. Which would translate into English as meaning that this small record does not falsify the existence of the trend. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 6:00 PM “But as I also said a few months ago, I always find the obsession with calendar years a bit odd anyway.” Given that temperatures have plunged exceedingly rapidly in the past few months, and this is likely to continue, I am curious if you really mean this. The handwriting is pretty much on the wall. So, while you quibble here and now, you must surely know that any minor victory you might score is going to be totally wiped away in the very near future. Are you hoping and praying that the nosedive will abate, and you will be able to claim vindication? Surely, you realize the tenuousness of your perch? Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:29 AM “Given that temperatures have plunged exceedingly rapidly in the past few months” They always do immediately after a strong el Nino. The overall trend rate is rising. As usual. A few months don’t count for much of anything. At the very least you need a multi-year trend, and much below 30 years is meaningless for purposes of plotting climate. Hence the low statistical significance. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 12:34 PM The overall trend rate is rising, as it has been for over 100 years, long before CO2 could have been an issue. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 12:36 PM For some reason, a filter is not allowing my longer, more explanatory, comment to go through. Bottom line is, there is nothing new or alarming going on. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:53 PM Roy, the two years aren’t “basically tied.” Or “tied.” One is warmer than the other. T(2016) +/- 0.10 C is warmer than T(1998) +/- 0.10. I think you’re spinning this hard in order to get the headlines you want. Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:11 PM What you mean he didn’t do that between v5.6 and v6.0? Reply barry says: January 9, 2017 at 6:06 PM I see comments like this from ‘skeptics’ all the time. Claiming mendacity with no evidence whatsoever. But this time it’s from the other side of the fence, and just as deplorable. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 8:57 AM We will see how future cooling we be handed. “insignificanrt cooling trend”. So has anyone tested how many of the “record colds” that were mentioned in a recent post were in fact ties? http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/12/first-week-of-2017-record-cold-48-states-going-below-freezing/ Or are ties only interesting when they fit opinions? Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 6:02 PM Why should there be any ties, if the Earth is being relentlessly overheated by CO2? Reply Bryan says: January 3, 2017 at 7:55 AM correction 0.05 ( + or -) 0.001 degree Celsius ? should be 0.050 ( + or -) 0.01 degree Celsius ? Reply Emeritus says: January 3, 2017 at 7:56 AM Dr. Spencer, what is the difference between 1998 and 2016 with v5.6? Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 7:57 AM Haven’t calculated it yet. Reply Olof R says: January 4, 2017 at 3:32 AM It will be way larger than 0.10 C, actually closer to 0.2, with other words significant… Reply Emeritus says: January 4, 2017 at 7:26 PM That was my assumption as well. Large portions of this blog and comments is about if 0,02 is significant or not. Dr. Spencer has been forthright regarding that the headline in this blog is a spin. The “warmest year on record” can make a false impression. And I think we all can agree that this matter is of some consequence . I find it quiet astonishing that these decisions is made solely by a couple of men without the insight Steven Mosher is asking for another place on this blogpost, and that even before the v6.0 paper is published. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:11 PM But, with very significantly less breadth. Reply Climatechange4realz says: January 3, 2017 at 8:05 AM Oh how the tables have turned. Lmao Reply argus says: January 3, 2017 at 8:24 AM I believe in the theory of global warming, but were I a bigger proponent, I would feel my position hurt substantially comparing ’98 to ’16, that a strong el nino almost 20 years later is indecipherable. I would feel the “pause” as having gained a lot of traction. Of course the next year or two will tell. Reply Climatechange4realz says: January 3, 2017 at 3:28 PM There go the puny minded warmest bickering over a teeny tiny 0.02C degree warmer then 1998. turning something so little into to something SO CATOSTROPHIC!! Reply Lewis says: January 3, 2017 at 7:04 PM Cato strophic? This then is the type picking we see here. Dr. Spencer is kind enough to host this blog. He offers observations and opinions. Others, whom we shall not rename, pick on him for his observations. How cute. His opinions do not toe a particular line, he, belonging to the lukewarmer church of CO2, is chastised nay, persecuted, for being a non-believer in the true religion. In all, I find much of the bickering petty. Of 5th to 8th grade level. The facts are simply. Dr. Spencer’s opinions are also simple, as are many who come here, but not all. The earth gets warmer and colder, we are not sure of all the imputs. But, if you are a AGW CO2 true believer, any minor chance to denigrate those who don’t believe is required. Bah. Grow up. We can’t control the weather. Warmer is better than colder. Hopefully, CO2 will help the planet avoid the depths of another ice age. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 8:06 AM What took you so long? 3rd of January already? A few too many caipirinhas at the fireworks display? Happy New Year, Dr. Roy. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 8:10 AM I take holidays off, believe it or not. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 3, 2017 at 8:22 AM Unspeakable temerity! Reply Bryan says: January 3, 2017 at 8:10 AM 01 2016 +0.50 02 1998 +0.48 Difference = 0.02 ( + or -) 0.01 degree Celsius ? Thats just the reading error on a digital meter(plus or minus the last unit claimed) What about all the other errors or noise? Reply OleKlemsdal says: January 3, 2017 at 8:14 AM Thank you again for interesting data! When comparing 1998 and 2016 I find it interesting that the anomaly averages the first quarters (jan, feb, mar) were 0,53 and 0,70 respectively, while the average anomaly the last 9 months were 0,46 and 0,44. Hence, despite a strong la Nina in the autumn of 1998, the last 3 quarters of 1998 were marginally warmer than 2016. Is this due to differences between the Nino episodes, and where does that lead us in to a likely year anomaly for 2017? Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 8:56 AM The loss of ice in the Arctic has a much more significant effect on global temperatures in the winter. This AMO driven ice loss is most likely the entire reason for 2016 being close to 1998. If the effects of the AMO are removed it is likely 1998 would be by far the warmer than 2016 and 1998 was even transitioning over to La Nina the last couple of months. Reply OleKlemsdal says: January 3, 2017 at 9:55 AM Yes, AMO quite likely plays a role here. The bottom line, I guess, is that natural factors appear increasingly important and CO2-mediated warming less dramatic than most of the worlds politicians have been convinced to believe. Reply FTOP says: January 3, 2017 at 8:21 AM It is interesting how a report can be described by many different headlines. This post could be titled accurately in numerous ways depending on author bias. Realist & Statistition, aka, Dr. Spencer “2016 Not Statistically warmer than 1998” Warmist “2016 Likely Breaks Record in Satellite Era,” Null Hypothesist “2016 ends with Lowest warmth Recoded in last 20 Months” At the end of the day, it appears global temperatures are stubbornly stable and trend towards a mean. Remove volcanic cooling and Nino events which have nothing to do with “Mann” and you have a system that regulates itself quite well. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 11:00 AM yes, that’s true. It’s an indication of how we can state something in simple terms which is technically true, but the reader then infers something of greater significance from it. For example, the statement, “global warming is real”. Which I agree with. But what I mean by it is probably quite different from what most readers of that statement infer from it. I decided on the wording for the current post as a counterpoint to the inevitable headlines like “OMG 2016-Warmest-On-Record-We’re-All-Gonna-Die!” Reply J says: January 3, 2017 at 11:42 AM Thank you for being so sane, Roy. And Happy New Year. Reply barry says: January 9, 2017 at 6:16 PM I decided on the wording for the current post as a counterpoint to the inevitable headlines like OMG 2016-Warmest-On-Record-Were-All-Gonna-Die! Hyperbole or oracular? The surface records are likely to have a statistically significant record warm year, so let’s hunt those headlines down. “2016 ‘hottest on record’ in new sign of global warming, Copernicus organisation says” (Oz ABC) “Hottest Year Ever? 2016 Burns Through Heat Records, NASA Says” (Live Science) ‘A new sign’ is pretty temperate (pun intended). ‘Burns through heat records’ is a little breathless. “2016 Edges 1998 as Warmest Year on Record” (Science Daily) “Scientists Say 2016 Is Hottest Year Ever Recorded” (EcoWatch) A dearth of alarmism in the headlines so far. But the official results haven’t been released, so maybe the press is saving it up for a week or two. Reply barry says: January 9, 2017 at 6:17 PM Wait, I found one! “Earth ‘On the Edge’ as Disastrous 2016 Goes Down as Hottest Year on Record” (Common Dreams) Well done, Dr Spencer, for providing balance against the raging onslaught of headlines. Reply Tim Wells says: January 3, 2017 at 8:39 AM We probably have a 10% effect on the temperature of the world, while nature has a 90% dominating effect. We have no plan for a significantly cooling world, which will result in a lower crop production. Reply FTOP says: January 3, 2017 at 11:29 AM We probably have 0% effect on the temperature of the world. We have a meadurable effect on localized temperatures due to urbanization which changes the latent heat capacity of a localized area. The sun represents 99.85% of all mass in the solar system. http://solarviews.com/eng/solarsys.htm The ocean represents 70% of the earth’s surface and according to the global warmists 91-93% of the measured warming we should be afraid of is happening in the ocean. Anyone who thinks we can burn a fossil fuel in Wichita and warm an ocean is delusional. It is that big orange ball in the sky warming the ocean and the ocean releasing that energy (El Nino) or not (La Nina). https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/08/26/climate-models-fail-global-ocean-heat-content-based-on-toa-energy-imbalance/ All the rest is just noise. Reply Climatechange4realz says: January 3, 2017 at 3:30 PM We do have a tiny bit of an affect. No doubt about that. But the alarmist turn it into an affect that’s so catostrophic it’s going to kill us all! Reply Olof R says: January 4, 2017 at 3:45 AM If we continue to release 10 Gt C per year in the atmosphere for another 1000 years, we would be able to recreate the Permian-Triassic extinction event. That would be exiting… Reply FTOP says: January 4, 2017 at 7:32 AM If continued cooling reduces ocean out gassing, we could see CO2 levels below 300 ppm. We are at much greater risk of an ELE from low CO2 (.04%) than marginal increases. Sods mother says: January 4, 2017 at 11:47 AM “If we continue to release 10 Gt C per year in the atmosphere for another 1000 years, we would be able to recreate the Permian-Triassic extinction event. That would be exiting” Yes, except, we will be way out of fossil fuels way before then! The predicted life of natural gas and oil is another 50 years while coal is another 100 years yet coal only makes up 25% of all our fossil fuels. But yes I agree with what your saying. If fossil fuels somehow do continue it could become a problem thousands of years down the road. ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 11:48 AM Previous post above ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 11:49 AM I apologize for the confusion. ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 11:55 AM Either way the climate will continue to change even if co2 emissions were still increasing from man made fossil fuels thousands of years from now except the ice ages will be milder and the warming periods will be hotter. Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:53 AM “If continued cooling reduces ocean out gassing” “Continued?” Do you perhaps not realise that most of current sea-level rise is due to thermal expansion? “Yes, except, we will be way out of fossil fuels way before then!” Perhaps not out of cement or soil. Fossil-fuel emissions are less then these two combined. ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 10:04 AM Fossil fuels. Does that name mean ANYTHING to you? They are FOSSIL fuels for a reason. Do your homework. Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:57 AM “No doubt about that. But the alarmist turn it into an affect thats so catostrophic its going to kill us all!” 150,000 per annum so far, according to the WHO. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7066/full/nature04188.html Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 11:39 AM Lol. That doesn’t matter. Co2 makes up only 0.04 % of the atmosphere and makes up only 5% of the total greenhouse affect. Even one hundred thousand million tons won’t do shit. In fact co2 is a plant fertilizer. If we choose to eliminate total co2 emissions we I’ll be dangerously close to killing all the plants on the planet . It benefits us much better then destroys us. Simple elementary school science. sod says: January 3, 2017 at 8:47 AM “Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998” Most misleading headline ever. Posted on a blog that lately had a topic named: “Science Under President Trump: End the Bias in Government-Funded Research” But hey, nothing that a few adjustments can not fix? Next version will have 1998 warmer again, promise? Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 8:52 AM The world is discussing fake news and then we get this from one of the most respected scientist on the sceptic side. I am really dissapointed. What would that 3rd order polynomial do these days? https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/02/uah-global-temperature-anomaly-still-below-the-zero-line/ Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 9:00 AM Sounds like you are in denial and moving slowly into anger. Why does anyone care about the headline. The real issue is the data. The data now clearly shows no warming over the past couple of decades. What should really concern you is we now are seeing the maximum effect of the AMO cycle. It should be warmer than 1998 and yet it isn’t. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 10:18 AM “What should really concern you is we now are seeing the maximum effect of the AMO cycle. It should be warmer than 1998 and yet it isnt.” it is warmer. Look at the numbers. Only if you do not weant it to be warmer, you start using the “statistical tie” nonsense. Your kids didn t grow last year. It a statistical tie with the number you got last month! Reply Richard M says: January 3, 2017 at 10:20 AM Obviously, you are not a scientist or you would understand what measurement error means. Why are you at a science site denying basic statistics? Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 11:14 AM oh, and your child growing analogy? If you don’t realize what’s wrong with it, I can’t help you. (Hint: All children grow with time, not shrink. But not all temperatures trend upwards.) Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:37 AM “(Hint: All children grow with time, not shrink. But not all temperatures trend upwards.)” This is wrong. Everybody shrinks every day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pawmi-StB94 And we have to include measuring errors, of course. You are also confusing stuff that we are going to measure (is the kid still growing) with some baseless claim (not all kids grow). David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:56 PM Richard, Roy wrote this headline knowing full well it would lead many forums — like Brietbart, the Daily Caller, etc — to report it the way he spun it. Reply spalding craft says: January 4, 2017 at 3:02 PM Gimme a break. You really think Roy cares what Breitbart and Daily Caller report? Roy is not a politician or a propagandizer. Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 11:12 AM “Most misleading headline ever”? Really? actually, in so few words, my headline is very accurate, and not misleading at all, sod. It makes a very important point…which probably would apply to the thermometer measurements as well….but good luck getting those guys to admit it. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:42 AM “actually, in so few words, my headline is very accurate, and not misleading at all, sod. It makes a very important pointwhich probably would apply to the thermometer measurements as well.but good luck getting those guys to admit it.” It is not accurate, unless you also start calling cold records (you made a post about those lately) “tie”. It is a trick to make the record less relevant. You would not have called the record “significantly strong” if it had been above the “tie” threshold. Reply SPQR says: January 3, 2017 at 8:48 AM From 1979 to the present, there is an upward trend on the graph. The graph does not begin in 1998. So what if 2016 was a record year? I think both sides (liberal and conservative) tinker with the data (liberals probably far more). However, even if there is slight warming (which it appears) I am not going to cease using my air-conditioner in the summer; Nor am I going to stop driving my car or cutting my lawn. Get over it people- Reply Wim Rost says: January 3, 2017 at 9:08 AM 2016 +0.50 1998 +0.48 Not really a sign of a dangerous warming… Reply Bryan says: January 3, 2017 at 9:20 AM The planet has been getting warmer naturally since around 1600AD Fossil fuel use became significant from 1840AD onwards A trend line following this period can be established and then projected to the present to account for natural variation. This would establish a baseline to compare the accelerating trend that the IPCC claim is due to CO2 increase. So for a sceptic a natural rise is to be expected. For an IPCC advocate an accelerating rise is essential But for the period 1998 till 2016 virtually no rise of any kind is observed. Surely the penny has dropped for any reasonable person. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:44 AM Bryan says: “The planet has been getting warmer naturally since around 1600AD” No it hasn’t: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:T_comp_61-90.pdf Reply Bryan says: January 3, 2017 at 1:02 PM There is an absurd attempt to deny the Central England temperature record. Several adjustments have been made to the data set and it is not at all clear if the original values can be found. However the historical record has the Thames freezing regularly. Water freezing gives a record set that does not rely on a thermometer and hence gives very strong evidence of very cold conditions around the 17th century. You might say that central England does not represent the World. However it would be odd if this long period of very cold weather was some kind of outlier. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_England_temperature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Thames_frost_fairs Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 6:59 PM Bryan says: “There is an absurd attempt to deny the Central England temperature record.” Is that a joke? You cannot judge the world’s temperature by a few cubic centimeters of air in one single, tiny, location on Earth. Talk about absurd. Reply Bryan says: January 4, 2017 at 2:56 AM Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville said; “Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie Christy is correct the margin of error is 5 times bigger than the signal. You cannot claim more accuracy than your margin of error. This would be clear in any science discipline other than climate pseudoscience. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:53 PM From UAH’s press release, titled “2016 Edges 1998 as Warmest Year on Record”: “Globally, 2016 edged out 1998 by +0.02 C to become the warmest year in the 38-year satellite temperature record, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville.” http://www.newswise.com/articles/2016-edges-1998-as-warmest-year-on-record Mike Maguire says: January 3, 2017 at 5:43 PM David, What happened to the Medieval Warm Period on your temperature graph? You must have Michael Mannitis (-: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/03/documenting-the-global-extent-of-the-medieval-warm-period/ According to your graph, global temperatures were in a downtrend for 800 years and surely we must have just rescued life from the next Ice Age(or at least the great adversity created by continuing global cooling) with the warming since 1900. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 7:03 PM Mike, what Medieval Warm Period? from the abstract of the PAGES 2k study: “There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age” — “Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia,” PAGES 2k Consortium, Nature Geosciences, April 21, 2013 http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n5/abs/ngeo1797.html Reply Lewis says: January 3, 2017 at 7:20 PM https://www.britannica.com/science/medieval-warm-period David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:49 PM Lewis, I’ll take a large, recent scientific study over an old, creeky encylopedia. Any day. Mike Maguire says: January 4, 2017 at 7:10 AM “Mike, what Meideval Warm Period?” The one that exists in climate history, human recorded history and the fIrst IPCC report but was wiped out in the 2001 IPCC report, along with Mann’s tree rings studies and hockey stick climate history graph. But if we believe this silly rewrite(hijacking) of historical temperatures and man made global warming has interrupted the 800 year downtrend in temperatures then………humans have reescued the planet from global cooling! Since the last 4 decades of weather and climate have been the best for life on this planet since the Medieval Warm Period…….or by your definition, since the last period in climate history when temperatures were this warm…….you tell us when that was,…..lets let the observations on this greening planet get some weighting vs busted computer simulations in models programmed with equations that have been deemed infallible. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:04 PM Mike, show us data for your purported global MWP. BTW, the hockey stick has appeared prominently in all IPCC ARs. Mike Maguire says: January 5, 2017 at 12:05 PM Mike, show us data for your purported global MWP.” David, I showed you a link with numerous studies…….you responded to it but must not have looked at the link. Here is more to help you out: Medieval Warm Period Project: http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/mwpp.php Project overview: http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/description.php Temperature differentials……majority(100) show Medieval Warm Period Warmer than Current Warm Period: http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/qualitative.php Scientists whose work is sited(over 100) http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/scientists.php Mike Maguire says: January 5, 2017 at 12:27 PM David, I showed you over 100 studies that point to a Medieval Warm Period, that was as warm or warmer than the Current Warm Period. Will you just ignore all these studies and believe a handful of the ones that confirm what you believe? You don’t have to show me them. I know and have seen them. Science is not just latching on to the data that confirms what you want to believe. At the very least, any objective and rightfully skeptical scientist would have to acknowledge that many hundreds of scientists found strong evidence of the Medieval Warm Period. Why is it so hard for you to acknowledge this? I acknowledge that we have had around 1 Deg C of warming over the last century and humans have caused some of it. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:48 PM Mike Maguire says: “I showed you over 100 studies that point to a Medieval Warm Period” No you didn’t, you linked to a list of 100 scientists who purported did such studies. Is there a list of the studies? CO2 is well known to hide their funding sources. They have no scientific credibility. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:50 PM Mike, there is no list of 100 studies — only a graph where one column goes to 100. What are the actual studies? Mike Maguire says: January 10, 2017 at 4:06 AM David, You have the links and studies with the evidence. Pretending that there is nothigng there shows that you are just being a. Troll……..not interested in a 2 way discussion or exchange of authentic ideas…..just interested in disrupting. Bryan says: January 5, 2017 at 8:58 AM David Appell You might be interested in this graph http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Screenshot-2016-04-08-at-05.24.44-AM-down.png Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:43 PM A graph from 1975??? Seriously?? Paleoclimatology has improved by leaps and bounds since then, both in the amount and types of data collected, and in the mathematical techniques used to analyze them. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:44 PM I meant “climatology,” not “paleoclimatology.” Bryan - oz4caster says: January 3, 2017 at 9:22 AM Interesting there was such a large drop from November to December. The CFSR GMST estimates from UM CCI and WxBELL also dropped, but not quite as much. I graphed them here: https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/global-temperature-december-2016-preliminary/ It’s also interesting that all the various estimates have diverged considerably since June, with the spread increasing from about 0.2C to 0.4C. Just goes to show some of the uncertainty involved in trying to estimate a global temperature anomaly. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:33 AM What’s the probability that 2016 was the warmest year? Reply Mike Maguire says: January 3, 2017 at 6:02 PM The importance of the verbiage in describing the global temperature in 2016 is telling. In science, .02 deg C is not significant in the realm that is being measured. In politics and marketing, being able to use “warmest ever” or “hottest ever” is a huge deal compared to not being able to use those terms. So let’s go ahead and say that the last 2 years were the MF-ing hottest years ever, since humans have been able to measure temperatures. What happened in 2015 and 2016? 1. Record crop yields and world food production 2. Planet was the record greenest since satellites have been able to measure this 3. Record low number of violent tornadoes(that peaked in the 1970’s) 4. Record longest streak for US to not have a major hurricane make landfall. 5. Global drought continues to decrease slightly 6. Sea levels went up a bit more than 1/10th of an inch But let’s forget all of that and focus on: 7. Heavy rain events saw a slight uptick 8. Arctic sea ice dropped to the 2nd lowest ever. So however verbiage you want to use to describe 2016 as warmer than any other years, it and the last 4 decades have featured the best weather, climate and CO2 levels for life on this planet for the last 1,000 years. If that isn’t true, please let us know about all the bad things that have happened because of this slight beneficial warming……..err, I mean record smashing hottest years ever. Reply Mike Maguire says: January 3, 2017 at 6:05 PM “So however verbiage you want to use to describe 2016” So whatever verbiage you want to use to describe 2016 Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:48 PM Mike, a study published in BAMS looked for human-caused issues in 2015: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/scientists-strong-evidence-human-caused-climate-change-intensified-2015-heat-waves Among them are 10 extreme heat waves that killed thousands of people, an intense wildfire season in Alaska, extreme drought southwestern Canada and in southeast China, and sunny day flooding in Florida in September The study is at: http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/2015_bams_eee_low_res.pdf Reply Nate says: January 4, 2017 at 11:56 AM Mike, Perhaps warmer is better where you live, ok. But how bout the rest of the world? Most of the developing world is plenty warm enough. Extreme heat is not welcome there. In California the extended drought has not been the best weather they’ve ever had. In the Himalayas, the many glaciers (the 3rd pole) are counted on to feed rivers in spring that irrigate vast areas in China and India. These are in recession which is accelerating, trending toward a future of inadequate springtime water for ~ 500 million. No-one is saying 3.4 mm of sea level rise in 1 year is a lot, but the rate is accelerating and summed over 50 or 100 years it becomes significant for people living in coastal cities. Reply Mike Maguire says: January 5, 2017 at 3:33 PM “In California the extended drought has not been the best weather theyve ever had.” Global drought has not increased, the planet is greening up. You will always be able to find areas of drought and extreme weather. They have and will always exist naturally. Droughts in California have lasted for many decades not that long ago. There is no correlation between that drought and the increase in CO2. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/14/science/californias-history-of-drought-repeats.html It’s interesting that we are about to have a huge precip event in California. In the next week, much of the northern and central parts of the state will see over 6 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of triple that. Snow will be measured in yards at the higher elevations. Reservoirs that are near record lows will be getting some needed water. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1483650690 So is this extreme precip from human caused climate change? No! As an operational meteorologist for 34 years, I can tell you that a portion of their precip has always come from events like this. “California Extreme Precipitation Symposium” http://cepsym.org/proceedings.php The difference between believing that weather/climate is unprecedented because you read about it and knowing that it is/was not is often a matter of doing a bit of homework and having an open mind. There are hundreds of sources that show recent extreme weather is very tame by historical standards……as we would expect when the planet warms more at the highest latitudes and decreases the meridional temp gradient. The atmosphere does not need to work as hard to balance the heat differential. The last 4 decades have featured the best weather, climate, growing and living conditions for life on this planet since the Medieval Warm Period, 1,000 years ago. You don’t even need to do your homework to verify the Medieval Warm Period, just look at the 100+ studies from my previous post. Enjoy the data and enjoy this climate regime……even though some places will always be having extreme/bad weather. Reply Mike Maguire says: January 5, 2017 at 3:46 PM Nate, I am not completely blind or one sided on this issue. Arctic sea ice is near record low levels and yes, sea levels are increasing. “IF” this were to accelerate it would be a problem for the humans that decided to build along the coasts that assumed that climate would never change. With regards to the Arctic, polars bears are doing great and their numbers have increased greatly in the last 4 decades, mainly because we aren’t killing them like before. The polar bear has been used as a cuddly mascot for a marketing scheme to capture people’s brains by using propaganda……..vs scientific facts and authentic biology. When entities have to lie about things like this(current polar bear metric) then it means that the truth won’t support their position/cause. Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 4:24 PM Mike, The supposed good weather of the MWP is a Euro-centric view of history, and the goodness of it. You are repeating that (centricity) You didnt address glacier melt or the the developing world. And nobody here is talking about polar bears. Mike Maguire says: January 5, 2017 at 5:17 PM “The supposed good weather of the MWP is a Euro-centric view of history, and the goodness of it. You are repeating that (centricity)” Not true. This is just what you have read and heard. Please look at all the data and studies that I provided. “You didnt address glacier melt.” OK, glaciers are melting too, along with Arctic ice. Is that all you have? Doesn’t negate one iota of the statement that the last 4 decades have featured the best weather, climate, growing and living conditions for life on this planet since the Medieval Warm Period, 1,000 years ago. And for those of you that deny there was a Medieval Warm Period, then since the last time it was this warm……..which, in your book is a very long time ago. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:41 PM What data and studies did you provide? David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:42 AM If a new record has to be 0.10 C warmer than the old record, then the only statistically significant “warmest years” in the UAH LT record are 1980 and 1998. This despite almost +0.5 C of warming over the entire record. So, yeah, the headline pretty kinda sounds like the best spin available for people who don’t want to admit warming. Reply appell'sajerk says: January 3, 2017 at 9:48 AM I thought fat people were supposed to be jolly… Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 10:24 AM “If a new record has to be 0.10 C warmer than the old record, then the only statistically significant warmest years in the UAH LT record are 1980 and 1998.” yeah. basically we can eliminate records by just making it difficult enough to score one. So we eliminated the surface data (not reliable) and concentrate on satellite data (small number of years). Then we occasionally change parameters, and lose satellites/sensors. The effect: We are sorry, but there is no (significant) warming any longer, no matter how much it warms. Reply Tim Folkerts says: January 3, 2017 at 11:23 AM Yes, it seems like a more fair way to say it would be something like: “2016 Probably The Warmest Year in Satellite Records By our best estimates, 2016 was the warmest year in the satellite record. Due to the uncertainties of the measurements, it is possible that 1998 was actually warmer, but odds are that 2016 is indeed the warmest. “ Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 6:08 PM No, that is not fair at all, because the probability is miniscule. If you flip a coin 100 times, and get 51 heads, it is not fair to say that the coin is biased towards heads. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 7:05 PM How do you know the probability is “miniscule” until you calculate it? Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 7:15 PM Are you serious? It’s 0.02 deg, fella’. ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 12:21 PM I apologize Bart but David here has a counting problem. He doesn’t know how to count because he’s never learned it in kindergarten and his homeschool teacher must have forgot to teach him it. You gotta give the guy some slack! Lewis says: January 3, 2017 at 7:23 PM Bart, you will notice that .02 degrees is only noticeable to mechanical thermometers, not beings. Without the thermometers, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. A discussion I must repeat, about control of people’s lives using climate change for an excuse. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:43 PM Bart, it’s 0.02 C, but it’s 0.4 standard deviations. That’s not so small. I calculate that the probability that 2016 was warmer than 1998 is 66%. See my work below: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/01/global-satellites-2016-not-statistically-warmer-than-1998/#comment-232788 Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 10:05 PM Your calculation is garbage. See below. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 10:21 PM I think my calculation is fine. Especially compared to your’s. ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 10:01 AM Oh I get it! So you think my coculation is fine compared to yours! So mines better then yours! I see what your saying now! Way to embarrass yourself! ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 10:02 AM Keep digging your self further and further down that rabbit hole! Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 11:32 AM What you think, and what is real, are clearly very different things. Take your “calculation” into any statistics department. Be ready for the blood to surge to your face as gales of laughter roll over you. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:03 PM Bart, more nothing. You don’t even TRY to explain why the calculation is wrong, or the rigorous way you think it should be done — you just spew out insults. That’s trivially easy. You got nothin’. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:18 PM Another physicist commenting on my blog found the probablility that UAH LT 2016 was warmer than 1998 to be 63%. https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=28837843&postID=6603432198050712290&page=1&token=1483726485223 But he, like everyone else here, is unsure about what margin of error to use, since Roy hasn’t been clear about it. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:51 PM Another mediocrity self-identifies. Congratulations on rooting them out, Dave. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:40 PM Bart, all insults, no math. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:10 PM I utterly destroyed your argument down below. Please catch up. Bryan says: January 4, 2017 at 3:43 AM Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville said; Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie” Christy is correct. You cannot claim more accuracy than your margin of error. This would be clear in any science other than the climate pseudoscience. If I handed in a lab report at university with a margin of error of a tenth of a degree yet claimed an accuracy to one hundredth a degree I would get an embarrassing fail Reply barry says: January 9, 2017 at 6:25 PM Quite right, Bryan. For example a trend of 0.005 (+/- 0.18) Has a margin of error 36 times greater than the supposed trend. You’d think that this would prevent people claiming anything about a trend in such data. But it’s global temperature data, and it runs from 1998 to December 2015. So certain quarters ignore the statistical uncertainty for that trend. The same people who are suddenly very interested in statistical uncertainty on this topic. Reply Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 12:26 PM Good point David. Reply fonzarelli says: January 3, 2017 at 9:44 AM WHO WINS THE RACE FOR WARMEST YEAR? As far as the race for warmest year goes, 1998 (+0.424 deg. C) barely edged out 2010 (+0.411 deg. C), but the difference (0.01 deg. C) is nowhere near statistically significant. So feel free to use or misuse those statistics to your hearts content. RWS January 3rd, 2011 Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:15 PM Lord knows it’s been done in the title of this post. Reply Lubos Motl says: January 3, 2017 at 10:17 AM Only 540 out of 703 pairs of the years in the 38-year interval, or 77%, agree with the claim that “a later year is warmer than the previous year”. In this sense, the increasing trend only exists at the 77% confidence level, slightly above 1 sigma. For more observations like that, click at my name. Reply Tim Folkerts says: January 3, 2017 at 11:13 AM That has to be about the most inane use of statistics I have ever seen! Randomly, you would expect half of the pairs to go up and half to go down. Using the binomial distribution, the odds are of getting 352 or more pairs going up are 0.5 (ie 50%) The odd of getting at least: * 355 –> 0.41 * 360 –> 0.27 * 380 –> 0.017 * 400 –> 0.00014 * 540 –> 0.00000000000000000000000000000000 (Excel can’t actually produce enough precision to calculate this number!) So what you are REALLY showing is that we can be VERY sure that there is more warming than cooling. There is about 99% confidence that warming occurs 77% +/- 4% of the time. (Ie if warming was occurring less 73% or more than 81%, then getting 540 out of 703 going up would be highly unlikely). The odds of 540 out of 703 being random (50%) are incalculably small. For more observations like that … yeah, I think I’ll pass. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:48 AM This is the most absurd look at statistics that i have ever seen. and if we put the threshold for a record at “beating the last record by +5C”, we won t see any record over the next century. Reply ren says: January 3, 2017 at 11:06 AM For several years now there is a clear shift of the polar vortex in the direction of Europe and it is a clear trend. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00855/ifuzwmefexm9.png Reply ren says: January 3, 2017 at 11:10 AM http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00855/cycgzbayvx7z.png Reply ren says: January 3, 2017 at 11:50 AM This is very important for circulation to the northern hemisphere. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00855/6v8x2pi2kf3v.gif Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 5:54 AM Ionizing radiation shows the actual air circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00855/hmqy5goh7n3k.png Reply E. Swanson says: January 3, 2017 at 11:22 AM Dr. Spencer, while it’s always interesting to see the latest UAH results, I think it’s important to realize that the meteorological year begins on 1 December. Your latest results should thus be the first installment for 2017. While we’re at it, the coldest time of the year for the US lower 48 is around the middle of January, so the projected cold and snow of your previous post isn’t unusual. And, how ’bout those tornadoes in the Southeast yesterday, were they NORMAL? Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 11:32 AM The numbers we post are departures from seasonal (actually, monthly) normals, so things like meteorological winter and when the coldest time of year occurs are not relevant. And, no, Gulf coast severe weather isn’t unusual this time of year. Reply E. Swanson says: January 3, 2017 at 11:45 AM The division of the year’s days into months is a rather arbitrary choice and the beginning of the calendar year on 1 January has no geophysical meaning. Why not just give seasonal averages with Winter beginning on 1 December, etc., which would better match the influence of the annual solar cycle? Oh, sorry, I suppose you probably are more interested in keeping your faithful followers happy with your monthly releases of your corrected MSU2/AMSU5 series. Reply Lewis says: January 3, 2017 at 7:28 PM Dear M. Swanson, Yes, months are arbitrary, but, in case you hadn’t noticed, in common use. Your idea reminds me of those whose last names start with letters far into the alphabet. They often advocate changing the order of the alphabet to let them be first occasionally. PC at it’s finest. Reply Slipstick says: January 3, 2017 at 11:33 AM The lack of statistical significance is an artifact of the calendar. For example, if we look at two year periods: 97-98 (or 98-99) +0.25 15-16 +0.38 Three year periods: 96-98 +0.15 14-16 +0.31 Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 3, 2017 at 11:44 AM True. I’m only addressing the claims of “warmest year on record” here. One can always change the averaging intervals to come to qualitatively different conclusions. When it comes to “global warming”, the most important single statistic in my opinion is the linear trend, which is still only 0.12 C/decade. Maybe in each monthly update I should have the headline: “Warming Rate Still Only 0.12 C/decade” But that would get a little boring. So, we talk about statistics people are used to hearing, like “2016 worst year ever for…” Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:54 PM I wonder if 2016 was 0.02 C colder than 1998, if you’d be saying it was statistically tied for warmest year…. Reply fonzarelli says: January 5, 2017 at 2:36 AM He did back when the 2010 data was out and ’98 edged it by .013: “…but the difference (0.01 deg. C) is nowhere near statistically significant.” RWS 1/3/2011 Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:46 AM “The lack of statistical significance is an artifact of the calendar. For example, if we look at two year periods: 97-98 (or 98-99) +0.25 15-16 +0.38 Three year periods: 96-98 +0.15 14-16 +0.31” do not dare to bring facts into this debate! The “fake news crowd” has decided that any temperature record is irrelevant because it can be cast into statistical doubt unless earth transforms into a burning ball from one second into the next (and then the debate wont matter any longer). And do not even dare to question, whether the medieval warming period was really warm or just a tie with a phase 10000 years ago! Reply Paul says: January 3, 2017 at 11:55 AM Dr. Spencer. Please give them the headline they want. They aren’t interested in the data anyway. If they were, they wouldn’t attribute 0.1 deg to El Nino and claim 2016 as the hottest year ever, when temperatures are plummeting since 9 months. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 11:57 AM ” If they were, they wouldnt attribute 0.1 deg to El Nino and claim 2016 as the hottest year ever, when temperatures are plummeting since 9 months.” This is what happens, when scientists support nonsense. Here is, how “sceptics2 turn your headlines. They think that cooling after el nino is significant, while high temperature records are not. You are supporting the fake news crowd and help them spread misinformation! Sad. Reply Paul says: January 3, 2017 at 12:05 PM @Sod Cooling since El Nino spike actually is 0.6 deg in monthly data. Difference between 1998 and 2016 is 0.02 deg. Up to you to decide where the significance is. Reply sod says: January 3, 2017 at 1:47 PM “Cooling since El Nino spike actually is 0.6 deg in monthly data. Difference between 1998 and 2016 is 0.02 deg. Up to you to decide where the significance is.” The term “significance” has a statistical meaning. It involves making decisions, but not the way you assume. In general, we would check if trends are statistically significant. Th upward trend over the full data obviously is. Whether the drop over the last few month is, i do not know. It doesn t look very different from other drops. Reply Paul says: January 3, 2017 at 12:08 PM But feel free to create your own message from the data. Hottest year in record and be it. After doing it ask yorself with the monthly data in front of you: So what? Reply Kevin White says: January 3, 2017 at 12:20 PM As I predicted, 2016 finished statistically tied with 1998. So the pause continues, alarmists will not like this! The demise of El Nino’s lingering influence combined with a strengthening La Nina and declining solar cycle will mean a much cooler 2017. It’s a little something called regression towards the mean. Note to alarmists, strong El Nino years are always warm, 2016 in that respect was nothing out of the ordinary. Get over it there is no statistically significant AGW. Reply Tim Folkerts says: January 3, 2017 at 1:14 PM 1) A “pause” is not defined by individual years. It should be determined by trendlines. So analyze slopes, not individual years. 2) Why do you call this a “strong El Nino”? The typical El Nino. This is unlike the 1998 El Nino, which from from near zero and then dropped back to near zero. So an apparently weak El Nino still produced a record! 3) This is not really a good example of regression toward the mean (which would be caused by random variations, not a pattern like El Nino evolving into La Nina). If nothing else, the regression should be toward “typical” values, which in this case would most logically be the 0.12 C/decade upward sloping trendline. Reply Paul says: January 3, 2017 at 1:46 PM Why do you call it a weak El Nino? Any data that supports that assumption? The 1998 El Nino needed approx. 20 months to vanish. We still have 10 to 12 months to compare both. Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 2:20 PM The strongest El Nino in recorded history is a weak El Nino???? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml ENSO index peak for 2015/2016 is 2.2 (and, yes, started from zero and dropped to zero, like it always happens) The next ones are 1997/1998 and 1982/1983 at 2.1 Ideology, just like religion, does make people blind… Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 2:21 PM Oops … sorry, the peak for 2015/2016 was even 2.3 not 2.2 Reply Tim Folkerts says: January 3, 2017 at 4:25 PM My comment about strength was based on the effect of the El nino on temperature –the extra warming from the El Nino “spike” above the existing baseline. This was indeed fairly small. I was thinking akin to a spring tide. Even a small wave atop a spring high tide will be higher than a good-sized wave atop a high neap tide. Similarly, one could describe El Nino strength from how warm the surface gets. A relatively small peak atop a high background could be considered “large” from an absolute perspective, but not so large from a relative perceptive. So I looked a little further, focusing on the Multivariate ENOS Index (MEI) (mostly since it seemed a good overall estimate of El Nino/La Nina and since I found the data set easily). This index has a slope when you do a linear fit, increasing about 0.0125/year since 1950. This is perhaps not surprising since overall ocean temperatures have increased over that time. This means that — relative to this linear trendline — MEI values near the end would be be adjusted downward about -0.4 and those near the beginning adjusted upward about 0.4 to give “account” for the trend. In this sense, the most recent El Nino is only moderately strong. This leaves us with a couple competing interpretations. One would be that an unusual series of strong El Ninos have pushed global temperatures up (and there is no ‘baseline upward trend’ from other causes). The other would be that the recent El Ninos are mostly “typical” but get a boost from global warming and a higher baseline SST. Unfortunately, I would suspect it would take a number of years to sort out which answer is better (eg multi-decadal oscillations could look like a multi-decadal upward upward trend). Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 8:04 AM Sven, the 1997/98 El Nino also peaked at 2.3 K. That El Nino and the most recent one have had about the same strength. Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:19 PM How strange that two months of 1997/1998 were 2.3, while you say it was only 2.1… clearly you cannot read. Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:20 PM Or, perhaps I should just quote your ironic self-description: “Ideology, just like religion, does make people blind” Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:38 PM Yes, my bad. I first planned to write only about 1998 and 2016. Then changed to the whole El Nino periods of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. That created the confusion. Working on an iphone contributed as well. You are correct that the 1997/1998 peak was also 2.3. So the Tim Folkerts’ weak El Nino was not “the strongest El Nino in recorded history but “tied with 1997/1998 as the strongest El Nino in recorded history”. And apparently even that fact, combined with the fact that it was not followed by a strong La Nina, still failed to produce a record. Now, is that correct? Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 9:05 PM And as to the “ironic self-description” – touch… In fact I regretted writing it as soon as I pressed “Submit comment”. It’s not a nice or wise thing to say and never adds anything to a discussion. One should stick to facts and avoid unnecessary snark. Will try to stick to facts. My appologies. Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 9:10 PM Seems that the site does not accept french letters – touch… should end with e with accent aigu. Definition – “used as an acknowledgment during a discussion of a good or clever point made at one’s expense by another person.” Kristian says: January 4, 2017 at 12:50 AM Sven says, January 3, 2017 at 2:20 PM: The strongest El Nino in recorded history is a weak El Nino???? Well, it certainly wasn’t a weak one. It was definitely a strong one. However, it’s still pretty clear it was rather dwarfed by the 1997/98 event. Here’s a comparison between the three biggest El Nino events over the past 40 years, the 1982/83 event, the 1997/98 event, and the 2015/16 event. First the “Equatorial Upper-Ocean Heat Content” of the Pacific basin (130E-80W) (according to CPC): https://okulaer.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/eq-ohc-b1.png Then the 4 month average SSTa (including the months with the highest anomaly around the peak of each event) of the tropical Pacific basin (10N-15S, 145E-75W): (1982/83) https://okulaer.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/g20161209_0557_21808_1.png (1997/98) https://okulaer.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/g20161209_0558_26296_1.png (2015/16) https://okulaer.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/g20161209_0559_27363_1.png Note the black rectangle. That’s the NINO3.4 region. You will also note that the anomaly scale and range (NOAA (Reynolds) OIv2) is exactly the same in all three cases. Inside the NINO3.4 rectangle, the overall SSTa of the 2015/16 event is actually as high or even slightly higher than that of the 1997/98 event, believe it or not. But when you look at the full picture, there is absolutely no question the latter event was the stronger one. By far … Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 2:41 PM And the 1998 El Nino turned right into a strong La Nina, what the 2016 El Nino did not, though it looked like it would at first. That fact probably did not have an insignificant role in making 2016 into such a warm year. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf So, again, it depends how you formulate your point. I would do it like that – even though the 2016 El Nino was significantly stronger than 1998 and did not turn into a strong La Nina, like in 1998, 2016 still ties with 1998… Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 3:00 PM Sorry to post so many times in a row, but Tim Folkerts’ comment does not cease to amaze me. “So an apparently weak El Nino still produced a record!” No – apparently even the strongest El Nino in recorded history failed to produce a record! Reply Paul says: January 3, 2017 at 3:04 PM Thank you Sven. Your explanation seems more rational than the flawed one with a weak El Nino. Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:22 PM It’s only rational if you don’t look at the link he posted, which contradicts him. Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:40 PM It is still rational Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 9:33 PM Good on you for owning up to it. Mike M. says: January 3, 2017 at 2:28 PM Elliot Bignell wrote: “Perhaps we should allow that a moment to sink in.” I noticed that result some time ago myself and it has definitely sunk in. Looks like there is nothing much to worry about. A continued linear increase in temperature corresponds to a continued exponential increase in CO2. That would lead to a forcing between 5.0 and 5.5 W/m^2 in 2100. I would say that is a reasonable business-as-usual scenario; that is, what might happen without any large innovations in energy technology. Given that CO2 emission growth already seems to be slowing, it looks like 2.0 K of warming is pretty much a worst case scenario. And 2.0 K is nothing much to worry about. Elliot Bignell wrote: “That is to say, that if we were to stop adding CO2e to the atmosphere today, then the warming being produced by the gases already in the atmosphere, without adjusting for decay in the concentrations, would put us very close indeed to the RPC6.0 scenarios outcome.” Someone ought to explain to Mr. Bignall how the Greenhouse effect works and what the 6.0 on “RCP6.0” means. I don’t have the patience. Reply Mike M. says: January 3, 2017 at 2:31 PM Hmm. This got disconnected from the message that I meant to reply to ( Elliott Bignell, January 3, 2017 at 8:55 AM). Lets see if I have fixed that problem. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:47 AM “… In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2 C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates.” http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n10/full/ngeo2248.html “A continued linear increase in temperature corresponds to a continued exponential increase in CO2. That would lead to a forcing between 5.0 and 5.5 W/m^2 in 2100.” The RPC 4.5 scenario projects almost exactly 2K over Y2K temperatures – see the graph. That amounts to about 2.8K over pre-industrial levels. You have just said that we are looking at an RPC 5.0 to RPC 5.5 scenario – i.e. that we are going to actually exceed RPC 4.5. I’d be worried, if I were you. “I dont have the patience.” Or the brains. Reply Mike M. says: January 5, 2017 at 11:31 AM Elliott Bignell, You are spouting nonsense. Present forcing is about 2.3 W/m^2. To get 2.0 K warming from an additional 2.2 W/m^2 would require a TCR of 3.4 K and an ECS of somewhere around 7.4 K. Way beyond even the IPCC range. Using an observationally justified TCR of about 1.3 K gives about 0.8 K additional warming for that forcing. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:35 PM Positive feedbacks. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 6, 2017 at 4:54 AM Just read off the graphs. They are entirely clear. The 6.0 scenario ends a little more than 2K over y2K temperatures, making for a little over 2.8K of total warming. The 4.5 scenario ends so close to 2K over Y2K levels as to be almost unreadable, making for very close to 2.8K. You’ve admitted that we are looking at a 5.0 to 5.5 scenario. Not that hard, surely? Reply Mike M. says: January 6, 2017 at 10:14 AM Elliott Bignell, Oh! There is a graph somewhere! So it must be true! I have no idea what graph you are referring to. But, as I argued above, it is clear that the graph must be making unreasonable assumptions. Of course, you don’t care about that. Dan Pangburn says: January 3, 2017 at 4:03 PM Solar activity (quantified by SSN) is a proxy for average global temperature change on earth. Assessment of solar activity should include the influence of duration as well as magnitude of solar cycles. Also a threshold must exist for sunspot numbers; above the threshold warming occurs and below it cooling occurs. This is accomplished using the time-integral of sunspot number anomalies (measured minus threshold). When combined with an approximation of the effect of ocean cycles and the contribution to warming of increasing water vapor, the result is a 98% match to 5-yr smoothed measurements 1895-2015. http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com Reply AaronS says: January 3, 2017 at 4:18 PM I dont have IPCC model prediction data to calculate the mean (it would be a great thing to share bc it is difficult to download). I am curious where does 2016 rank in: Highest ranking years for climate model error and exaggerated warming compared to measured data? A plot through time of measured temperature minus predicted temperature is the thing i feel that general population need. Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 5:14 PM Now that is a really innovative definition of the strength of El Nino! Must be your own invention. I’ve followed the “debate” for around 10 years now and I certainly have not seen this before. Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 5:16 PM It was supposed to be a reply to Tim Folkerts, I have no idea why it landed here Reply fonzarelli says: January 3, 2017 at 7:09 PM Sven, my guess is that you’re using a mobile device (?) Comments have to be posted using the desk top version or they oft end up at the bottom of the page. Note that Tim’s comment lacks a reply button with the desk top version, but has a (false) reply button with the mobile version. If you have trouble getting the desk top version on your mobile device, let me know and i’ll walk you through how to do it… Reply Sven says: January 3, 2017 at 7:37 PM Thanks fonzarelli, Yes, yhat was the problem. Turned it to desktop Reply Entropic man says: January 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM If the December GISS temperature comes in 0.21C cooler than November, down from 0.95C to 0.74C, the GISS Land-Ocean temperature for 2016 would be 0.98C. We will know definately when their data comes out in three weeks time. GISS for 1998 was 0.63C. The warming to 2016 would be a statistically significant 0.35C. Are the two sides going to spend the next year arguing over which of the six main temperature datasets show significant warming and which do not, and what that means for the climate? Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 6:21 PM GISS is not a credible data set. You will not make any points with knowledgeable people using it. Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 8:23 PM So UAH is credible when there are VERY LARGE variations between v5.6 and v6.0? _UAH_5.6_ 1998 (J-D): +0.42 2016 (J-N): +0.60 _UAH_6.0_ 1998 (J-D): +0.48 2016 (J-D): +0.50 Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 9:01 PM Meh. Barely discernible in the plot: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah5/plot/uah6 These differences are not “very large”. As a fraction of the peak values for these El Nino years, they are VERY SMALL. Nothing like this: http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/NASA-2000Vs2016.gif Reply Greven says: January 3, 2017 at 9:30 PM You should also look at other bits of the UAH data – especially the Arctic in 2016 from UAH v5.6 to 6.0: 0.9 degree difference in October. What is the data source for that GIF? GIS is not doing much. Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 9:56 PM Gimme a break, will ya’? I’ve been keeping tabs on this long enough to know that the surface data sets agreed with the satellite sets very well up until they manipulated the bucket data to add spurious new warming. It’s a blatant and transparent fudge to keep the warming meme going in the face of an uncooperative real climate. Now, your side wants to cast aspersions on the satellite data to complete the con. Go sell it to the numbskulls who lap up your bilge. I’m not buying. David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 11:12 PM Carl Mears, Senior Research Scientist, Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) “A similar, but stronger case can be made using surface temperature datasets, which I consider to be more reliable than satellite datasets.” http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperatures Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 11:33 AM Yes, Mears serves at the sufferance of the climate mafia. He knows which side his bread is buttered on. Greven says: January 4, 2017 at 4:36 PM Bart, How strange. Why are you unwilling to link where that NASA-2000Vs2016.gif came from – from what data source does it originate? Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 5:35 PM I wasn’t aware that I was obligated to do your web searches for you. But, here are the data: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/history/output/met_used.zip David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:43 PM Bart says: “Yes, Mears serves at the sufferance of the climate mafia. He knows which side his bread is buttered on.” You always have an excuse, don’t you Bart. If you can’t provide the data and science wrong, you just use insults and imply someone is crooked, all without any proof or analysis whatsoever. When you have to resort to garbage like that, your claims aren’t at all convincing. It shows no thinking whatsoever. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 8:39 PM Where’s the excuse? An excuse is “a plea offered in extenuation of a fault“. I am admitting no fault. I am pointing out that Dr. Mears heads a private research company dependent on contracts from NASA’s Earth Sciences arm, and has a keen self interest in pleasing his customers. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 9:09 PM Bart, I take that to mean you manipulate data at your job, due to a keen self interest in pleasing your customers, and so you assume everyone else does it too. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 9:32 PM Yeah, unfortunately David, if I did that, people would die, and my customers wouldn’t be pleased for very long. I expect it’s nice to be in a field, like climate science, where there are no consequences for being wrong most of the time. Greven says: January 4, 2017 at 10:15 PM Bart, Thanks for showing where you got the info. A web search for that was insufficient to find it, sorry. However, I think that GIF is a bit misleading. Here’s what the image looks like just pasting the frames on top of each other: http://www.evilgreven.net/images/nasaadjustments.png The longer beginning and shorter end seem to distort things. Looking at them side-by-side you see it’s pretty close; the maximum adjustment happens near the beginning, ~0.2 degrees Celsius. The much more certain modern era has far less adjustment at/below ~0.1 degrees; no more than UAH versions have been adjusted. You plotting that graph in WoodForTrees doesn’t show how different they really are: http://environmentalforest.blogspot.com/2015/05/first-look-uah-60-vs-uah-56-vs-rss.html You can clearly tell the 0.1 degree Celsius difference (nearing 0.2 for 2016!)between UAH v6.0 and v5.6 in my data above and that’s straight from this site. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:19 PM So you’re the only honest man in the world, huh Bart? No one else can be honest but you. You can insult the integrity of others, based on no data whatsoever, but you’re above it all, just becausey you say so. That must be a weighty crown to bear. Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 9:01 AM Bart. Thats a nice way to obscure the issues. Both sets have changes of about .1 C. But the satellite data has lots more noise and is not smoothed as nasa data is. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 11:38 AM Greven – All data are uncertain, and within the realm of uncertainty, there is leeway for various interpretations. What I see happening is that adjustments to the satellite record go both ways, while adjustments to the surface record are overwhelmingly in one direction. David – I do not know if it is dishonesty, or incompetence, or both driving the panic mongering. But, I know that there is no emergency, and I know that the proposed cures are worse than the purported disease. Nate – Smoothness of the data is not a general indicator of quality. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:33 PM Bart says: “David I do not know if it is dishonesty, or incompetence, or both driving the panic mongering. But, I know that there is no emergency, and I know that the proposed cures are worse than the purported disease.” You don’t know anything, because you never look at data or do any analysis. Intuition is not science. That’s what makes science so useful. And insults aren’t a counterargument. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:01 PM Way to contradict yourself within the space of a couple of sentences there, Dave. barry says: January 5, 2017 at 4:37 PM Bart, What I see happening is that adjustments to the satellite record go both ways, while adjustments to the surface record are overwhelmingly in one direction. The single biggest adjustment to the surface data sets has been to cool the centennial record, by adjusting upwards sea surface temps in the past – making the slope shallower. http://tinyurl.com/gtrllh4 JasG says: January 3, 2017 at 8:34 PM Until they reconcile the terrestrial recons with the more accurate satellite recons then they are all worthless. The fact that they all use the same data means that 6, 20 or 100,000 recons would still not validate each other. The fact that Giss was quick to adopt the NOAA pause-buster adjustments where accurate sea temperatures were replaced by extrapolations from bucket measurements tell us all we need to know about them. That unscientific politically-motivated bodge will, I expect, be reverted after proper scrutiny under the Trump administration and Noaa will flop back down to match the satellites/radiosondes once again. However even then it will still be running hot because the atmosphere should really be warming more than the surface according to the man-made warming hypothesis….but then the Antarctic should also be warming….and the stratosphere should be cooling…..and the pause should not be happening. Giss will still of course remain the pessimistic outlier due to the fact that it unscientifically extrapolates across the Arctic (otherwise known as just making it up). Meantime most of the (global) warming in Giss (outside the 100% invented Arctic data) seems to be happening in Siberia in Winter; so not of even local concern, never kind global. Giss climate models are just as inaccurate, being the worst performer spatially and temporally compared with all other models. In any privately funded endeavor such resolute incompetence would be rewarded by the sack. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 8:24 AM Results differ very little whether you use GHCN, or a well-spread subset, whether you use or rural or sea surface records, whether you use different records to GHCN, no matter what methods you use, or if you are a skeptic who actually decides that they will construct your own temp record from raw data, and endeavour to use the best methods you can think of (3 different skeptic groups have done this). There are numerous global (and US) surface temp records made by AGW skeptics and others. They are not much different from each other. Critics complain automatically. Useful people crunch the numbers, running their own tests. Those that have done this, stop complaining. Check out their work. For example, https://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/03/24/thermal-hammer/ Reply Greven says: January 5, 2017 at 6:47 PM Satellites are not ‘more accurate.’ They have more coverage, but they do not directly measure temperature. Temperature is inferred based on theory; interpreted and modeled from microwave sounders. Reply Francis says: January 3, 2017 at 7:01 PM I am not a scientist but only a humble lawyer. However, it seems to me from having looked at this subject for many hours online that the likelihood that there is man made global warming going on is incredibly small. I think that I now know enough about the key points in debate to make comment in them. What is being discussed is, at the moment, something much less than 2 C having started with an average which could have itself been +/- a good part of that anyway pending what average you take. I cannot accept that the historic toempritue record, mostly having come from ‘proxy’ measurements, could be accurate by more than +/- something like 10 C. I know that science is very good and is constantly getting better these days but I don’t believe anyone who thinks that they can tell me what the global temperature is today without the use of a satellite, much less someone who can tell me what it was half way through the 18th century. Neither can I believe that accurate adjustments can be made to allow for what kind of buckets were used to measure temperature using who knows how accurate a thermometer on so many different ships all those years ago. In my view the satellite measurements are the only thing that we have which has much chance at all of providing the information that we need to decide this issue. The earth could get quite a lot warmer over the next few years and that would still not ‘prove’ the issue either way. I don’t think that anyone would be wise to try to forecast what the temperature will actually do for any short to medium period of years at any stage (ask the ‘warmers’). However, now that we have been through 2016 it seems to me that the ‘warmers’ have now had their shock headlines, probably, for a long time to come.If 2017 is warmer still I may well go and join the ‘warmers’ but I don’t think that it will be. Dr Spencer, for my part I do think that your headline could have been a little closer to ‘2016 just pips it at the post’ or something like that. In the future you may be glad that the high point was so high, all lower temperatures in years to come will be comparatively lower because of it. I think that the key question for the warmers now is ‘how much cooling over how long would it take to convince you that man has no significant effect?’ and then ‘how much lack of warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has no significant effect?’ Or ‘how many C drop would convince you?’ If those questions were answered we would at least have a target, mind you I don’t expect my life will be long enough to see it! Dr Spencer keep up the good work, the world needs more like you and Illegitimi non carborundum. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 11:10 PM Francis wrote: “I think that the key question for the warmers now is how much cooling over how long would it take to convince you that man has no significant effect?” Francis, how much more warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has a significant effect? Reply Francis says: January 4, 2017 at 5:18 AM David, good question. Looking at the satellite record it seems to me there are a number of points worthy of note. First, the lowest low on the 13 month average (assuming that I am reading off the graph correctly) was October 1984 @ -0.51 and the highest high was May 2016 @ +0.5. That is a difference of 1.1 over the 37 year record. That seems to me to be very little change for that period. Second, the higher temperatures (on the 13 month average) are followed each time by a number of years where the temperatures drop back down. That recovery is then countered by a higher high. Between 1998 and 2016 the temperatures were settling back down before they went up to the 2016 peak. That is 18 years, with a significant peak in 2010, before getting back up to (and slightly over) the 1998 figure. I don’t see that that can in any way show a trend of warming overall. Third, I get that you can’t take a single year in isolation or even a 2 year average but as you step to three years, five years or ten years you are asking for a much bigger step each time to be able to claim a warming trend. If we were to see a significant lack of the cooling in future years between peaks then that would support a warming argument. Or if we saw a peak larger than 1998 and 2016 in much less than 18 years then that would support warming. However, if we saw any lows, as low as 1992 or 1985 or lower, then they would stand against the warming argument. Fourth, if the problem is CO2 then the fact that it has been increasing consistently over the whole period should mean that the temperature should increase consistently, at least, over any period of a decade or more. Therefore I would say that it would need a high on the 13 month average of more than 0.55 within the next 18 years without a low below -0.31 within that period for it to be likely that man’s CO2 is making it happen. What are the warmers’ answers? Reply Entropic man says: January 4, 2017 at 6:37 AM Francis I was asked this on another blog. The most recent GISS 5-year average centred on 2013 is 0.79C+/-0.1C. A stastically significant cooling would be 0.2C. Show me a future GISS 5-year average below 0.59C and I would accept that global warming has stopped. Reply Francis says: January 4, 2017 at 5:52 PM Thank you for your reply, it would be good a few more would respond. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:15 AM Francis says: “First, the lowest low on the 13 month average (assuming that I am reading off the graph correctly) was October 1984 @ -0.51 and the highest high was May 2016 @ +0.5. That is a difference of 1.1 over the 37 year record. That seems to me to be very little change for that period.” Compared to what? When the Earth left its last ice age to when warming peaked, the average rate of warming was only +0.005 C/decade. So today’s rate of LT warming is about 25 times higher. Reply Francis says: January 4, 2017 at 5:57 PM And when the earth left the last ice age what were the rolling 13 month averages and the highest and lowest of them in each 37 year period?. The trouble with historic data is that it simply cannot be accurate, at best it is approximate. There may be some degree of certainty as to the overall averages over long periods but we do not have the satellite record. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:40 PM Francis: Our current rate of warming is about 30 times faster than when the last ice age was ending. From Shakun et al Nature 2012 Figure 2a: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html global temperature anomaly in year -18,000 is -3.4 C global temperature anomaly in year -11,000 is +0.0 C so the average temperature change is 3.4 C in 7000 years, or ~ +0.005 C/decade, compared to NOAA’s current 30-year trend of +0.17 C/decade So that’s a factor of 30 now compared to then. fonzarelli says: January 5, 2017 at 2:47 AM Francis, don’t bother tangling with appell. (he’s the biggest liar in the blogosphere…) He well knows that we had an equvilent amount of warming a century ago, but he’s never going to tell you that. In fact he’ll probably use his sock puppet “John” to refute early twentieth century warming as he has done in the past… David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:22 AM Francis wrote: “That is 18 years, with a significant peak in 2010, before getting back up to (and slightly over) the 1998 figure. I dont see that that can in any way show a trend of warming overall.” Francis, you’re doing numerology, not math. You can’t calculate the change in the data just by looking at two data points, peak-to-peak. Those two peaks just don’t accurately represent the data. “Fourth, if the problem is CO2 then the fact that it has been increasing consistently over the whole period should mean that the temperature should increase consistently, at least, over any period of a decade or more.” No no no no no no no. Natural variations still exist in a warming world. — So again: how much more warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has a significant effect? Reply Francis says: January 4, 2017 at 6:31 PM I was not trying to do math. I accept that to a great degree what the figures provide is statistical and can be looked at in that way. I further accept that I know so close to nothing about statistical analysis as makes no difference. If all of the scientists and mathematicians and statisticians knew how the climate and the numbers worked then they could model it but they don’t even come close. So, it seems, they are as good at it as I am. David wrote: “You cant calculate the change in the data just by looking at two data points, peak-to-peak. Those two peaks just dont accurately represent the data.” We (by which I mean everyone on earth) don’t know what the data tells us, assuming that it could tell us anything if we understood it better. Whatever the important influences are CO2, the sun, the air, the land, the sea, the volcanos or any number of other factors the truth is that ‘we’ don’t know. But, if the planet is warming then the high points and the low points should get higher with time, that is just logic. In the satellite record the low points have been pulled up over the 37 year period but none of them from a standing start. If I boil a kettle and then let it cool it will take just as long to boil again if I leave it to get as cool as it was. But if I start it boiling again very soon after it boiled the first time it will do it so much quicker than the last time. The math is irrelevant. High highs will be followed by higher lows until it cools down again. The question is will we get higher highs before the lows have recovered. David wrote: “No no no no no no no. Natural variations still exist in a warming world.” And we (the same we as above) don’t know what those natural variations are or what their data is over any period. If the warmers knew that ‘the pause’ was caused by some particular variant then they would have measured the data and told us but they have not. Just because you don’t know what causes something it is no good just saying that it must be CO2. You need to be able to demonstrate what it is if you expect people to suffer and die for it. So many times in history what seemed to be very difficult and complicated questions proved in the end to have very simple answers, this could be one of those times. And in answer to your question; it would take higher lows and higher highs in the satellite record. The higher they are the sooner I could be convinced but if a volcano interferes then I would still need higher temperatures. Other than that I stand by my previous answer. David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:36 PM Francis, Again, more numerology and hand-waving, when what’s called for is analysis. “And we (the same we as above) dont know what those natural variations are or what their data is over any period.” We do know some, but it doesn’t matter, they exist and they mean temperature isn’t going to increase monotonically with CO2. This is so obvious it’s dumb to even argue about it. “So many times in history what seemed to be very difficult and complicated questions proved in the end to have very simple answers, this could be one of those times.” This is the end — the increase in temperature is due to man’s emissions of greenhouse gases. As is ocean acidification. I recognize you are desperate to have something else — anything else — be causing the warming. But the science clearly shows AGW, and it was known in the 1800s that this would happen. — So again: how much more warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has a significant effect? fonzarelli says: January 5, 2017 at 3:07 AM The ipcc claims that as little as half of recent warming may be caused by agw. If we’re generous and assign 0.3 C as half of recent warming, then 0.5 C (since LIA) would be natural. And that’s if the ipcc’s unproven assertion is actually correct. The science doesn’t “clearly show” anything… Francis says: January 5, 2017 at 3:29 AM David We seem to agree that there are many factors which affect the global temperature. The difference is that you say that CO2 is increasing temperature in a more than minor way, I say that there is no proof of that, there is too much noise. Therefore I say that the temperature has not gone up any more than it would have done if man were not on the planet. If your starting point is that temperature has gone up more than it would have done then you have to look for what caused that. If your starting point is that there has not been such an increase then there is nothing to look for. We know that the planet can go into and out of ice ages but you say that it should now stop going up and down, why? David wrote: “the increase in temperature is due to mans emissions of greenhouse gases. As is ocean acidification.” Prove it! If you can do that then we don’t even need temperature records or increases we would know it to be a fact, but you can’t and we don’t. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:44 AM Francis, the proof is in many papers publishe over the years, summarized in modern textbooks. Have you read any climate science textbooks, Francis? Or, for free, you could read the IPCC 5AR WG1. But a textbook would be clearer. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:46 AM Francis, if not anthropogenic GHGs, what natural factor(s) are causing modern warming? How much more warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has a significant effect? Francis says: January 5, 2017 at 11:22 AM David Maybe you and I differ over the meaning of phrases such as ‘prove it’ and words such as ‘proof’. I would not have set you the challenge if there was any chance that such proof exists, it does not. If it did then this website would not exist and there would be no dispute. Given time I could give you a long list of well qualified scientists who do or have worked in appropriate fields that disagree with what you call ‘proof’ (I don’t however propose to do that) and you could do a list of those that agree with you (I don’t expect you to do so either) but I am sure that my list would constitute more than 3% of the total. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:31 PM Francis, yes, there is a strong preponderance of evidence that CO2 is the leading cause of AGW. But since you won’t read papers or textbooks, you’ll never learn that and will always be arguing from a position of ignorance. — How much more warming over how long would it take to convince you that man has a significant effect? mojomojo says: January 3, 2017 at 7:29 PM An email I sent [email protected] was sent back as not deliverable. Do you have a email current address?If not heres the content. Hi Roy , I started a thread using your post “Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998″as the topic and I would appreciate if you would comment on why version 6 global TLT data is not the data used in your blog. Heres the blog.You will need to create a username. Thanks Im the sole skeptic on this environmental site and have been defending climate skepticism for years without any scientific or engineering background. https://priuschat.com/threads/latest-global-temp-anomaly-dec-16-0-24%C2%B0c-global-satellites-2016-not-statistically-warme.175146/#post-2473564 Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 9:40 PM I think the probability that 2016 was the warmest year is 66%, and the probability that 1998 was is the complement of that, 34%. Assume the temperatures are normally distributed, with 2sigma = 0.10. So what we have are two normal distributions side-by-side, one (2016) with a peak 0.02 C more than 1998, to the right. The probability that 1998 was the warmest year is the area to the right of the 2016 curve from 0.50 C to infinity. Normalizing the coordinates, this is the area to the right of 0.4 of the normal distribution. 0.4 = (0.50-0.48)/0.05 where the first two numbers are the means, and sigma = 0.05 is the standard deviation. The area of the normal distribution to the right of 0.4 is 0.3446. See: http://www.stat.ncsu.edu/people/osborne/courses/xiamen/normal-table.pdf so P(1998 is warmest) = 34% The probability 2016 was the warmest year is the complement of the probability that 1998 was, so P(2016 is warmest) = 66% Reply Bart says: January 3, 2017 at 10:04 PM “Assume the temperatures are normally distributed, with 2sigma = 0.10.” Why should we assume that? Why should we assume a time invariant distribution at all? Answer: we shouldn’t. These data are autocorrelated, with both long and short term correlations. “So what we have are two normal distributions side-by-side, one (2016) with a peak 0.02 C more than 1998, to the right.” You do not appear to understand probability distributions. The height at any given point does not have physical significance, only area under the curve. “The area of the normal distribution to the right of 0.4 is 0.3446.” No, no, no, no, no. That is nothing like a test of the null hypothesis, Junior. This is terrible. Go back to doing whatever your liberal arts degree qualifies you to do. Reply David Appell says: January 3, 2017 at 10:12 PM You clearly don’t understand the nature of physical measurements. The annual temperature for any year is (I’m assuming) normally distributed, with a best estimate (0.50 C for 2016, 0.48 C for 1998) and, according to Roy, 2sigma = test of statistical significance = 0.10 C. So sigma = 0.05 C. The rest of my calculation proceeds as above. Reply Bryan says: January 4, 2017 at 3:52 AM Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville said; “Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie Christy is correct. You cannot claim more accuracy than your margin of error. This would be clear in any science other than the climate pseudoscience. If I handed in a lab report at university with a margin of error of a tenth of a degree yet claimed an accuracy to one hundredth a degree I would get an embarrassing fail. Perhaps you have a degree in climate pseudoscience? Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:11 AM Sorry, no. First of all, I’m calculating something different than whether the two numbers are “a statistical tie.” They aren’t — one is definitely larger than the other, and I calculated the probability that it is. Second, all of my figures are to two significant places, just like the data. Third, I suspect this uncertainty number of 0.10 C (2sigma) is just a guess. Unless Roy took the time to take ALL the uncertainties in the input data and ALL the resulting uncertainties in the calculations, which would be quite difficult, the standard deviation of the monthly numbers (0.05 C) probably comes a sense of the spread of the monthly result as calculated by the UAH model. It’d be nice to know for sure. I stand by my 66%. Bart says: January 4, 2017 at 11:22 AM Sorry, DA. Your math is appalling. This is not the way you do hypothesis testing. Not even close. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:31 PM When you have nothing but name calling and no analysis of your own, your reply is what’s appalling. Reply Bryan says: January 5, 2017 at 3:55 AM David Appell Perhaps you do not have a science background so I will explain more fully. If I was carrying out a lab report on an experiment I was required to lay out the entire mathematics of determining the final margin of error in the reported results. This is called error analysis. The experiment may involve several components and sensors each with its own margin of error. For example the display might claim an accuracy of 0.01% and a sensor might have an accuracy of 0.1% Usually quoted as plus or minus a percentage. There may be several components to the experiment giving rise to a final calculation of a value or result. In such a case it is perfectly possible to find a value with more digits than can be justified by error analysis. The iron rule is you cannot claim to be more accurate than the final margin of error. So the result would be quoted with the redundant digits stripped out. Spencer and Christy would be bound to report that; Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie” To do otherwise would be professional suicide. Tim Folkerts and Mike M are physicists and broadly support the IPCC case. However I’m sure that now that the margin of error is known,that in this case the report is following standard practice. It would be good to raise the standard of debate instead of shouting at each other. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:41 AM Bryan, I’m well aware of where final margins of error come from. “Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie” No it isn’t. See http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2017/01/the-statistical-tie-fallacy.html I don’t think the MOE of 0.10 C is right, either. I gather this number came from twice (appx 95% confidene limit) with the MOE on each number of 0.05 C. First, I wonder how that MOE was determined — by running all the raw data uncertainities through the UAH data model, or mostly a guess. (I have the same question about GISS’s data model, BTW.) Second, I think it’s too high. We really want to know the MOE of the difference of two numbers, T(2010)-T(1998). Using standard error analysis, that is not sigma2, but sigmasqrt(2) = 0.07 C. So the difference is (0.02 +/- 0.07) C. One can calculate the probability that difference is > 0, and the result will be that the probability that T(2010)>T(1998) is > 50%. Why wouldn’t UAH do that here? Bryan says: January 5, 2017 at 10:46 AM David you still dont get it. Its not a matter of juggling around with statistics to get a most likely outcome. This might be appropriate with social studies as in your example but has nothing to do with physical science. I have given you the names of two physicists (who are broadly IPCC supporters) who when they look at my post will agree with it I’m sure because its very basic. For example, a display unit is capable of displaying accurately to 0.01% resolution is linked to a temperature sensor with 0.1% resolution accuracy. The high resolution display will not improve the accuracy of the temperature reading. Even though the display unit will appear to show more digits than is justified,the superfluous digits will have to be discarded. Please quote any physics,chemistry or engineering textbook that would agree with your method of dealing with the unavoidable error analysis of a physical measurement for the result to be valid. To quote election results is really a joke and you will not be taken seriously Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 11:47 AM David is claiming that a juggle of 0.02 deg in an assumed 0.1 deg 1-sigma normal error distribution makes it 66% likely that the underlying mean has shifted upwards by 0.02 deg. It’s farcical. He hasn’t verified the distribution. He has no inkling of the underlying statistical model. He hasn’t even applied the F-test. His entire methodology is cockeyed. He’s just throwing something at the wall to see if it sticks. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:27 PM Bart says: “David is claiming that a juggle of 0.02 deg in an assumed 0.1 deg 1-sigma normal error distribution makes it 66% likely that the underlying mean has shifted upwards by 0.02 deg.” No, sigma = 0.05 C “Its farcical.” More insults, still no analysis. “He hasnt verified the distribution.” Your gonna have to do better than that. Since I don’t have all the data, I can’t see the distribution. I’d be surprised if it wasn’t Gaussian. I assumed each annual temperture was normally distributed around its best estimate, with sigma=0.05 C “He has no inkling of the underlying statistical model. He hasnt even applied the F-test. His entire methodology is cockeyed. Hes just throwing something at the wall to see if it sticks.” No I’m not. My method agrees with similar results for polling data. Come back when you have your own analysis and can do more than meaningless ranting. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:28 PM Bryan, it’s UAH who says sigma=0.05 C, not me. Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 12:44 PM Bart, How bout this? We have two numbers, a, b, with Gaussian pdfs and sigma =.05, want to know prob that a is greater than b, or that a-b >0. So pdf of a-b is also a Gaussian with sigma (a-b) = sqrt(2) sigma =.07 and peaking at 0.02. Prob of a-b > 0 is area of pdf > 0. Agreed?? If so then prob is 61%. However useful that is.. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 2:47 PM Nate – In the first place, the claimed sigma was 0.1, not 0.05. Next, the pdf is only Gaussian with sqrt(2) times the sigma if the error process is i.i.d, which has not been shown. Next, neutral ground is 50% probability, so even 61% would only be slightly better than even odds. Put in sigma = 0.1, and you get 58% (sigma = 0.05 would actually give 66%). That’s only 8 percentage points beyond a coin toss. There are better than 4 in 10 odds that a is less than b! Then, for the actual system we are arguing about, there is the autocorrelation of El Nino to consider. El Ninos come and go. Some are bigger. Some are smaller. It is essentially random where it peaks. So, you’ve got to take into account the variability of that as well, which pushes your sigma value well beyond 0.1 deg. Then, you have to consider the underlying natural pattern, and take that into account to see if there is any deviation from it. That pattern, which was in place long before CO2 could potentially have been a problem, is a steady rise coming out of the LIA plus an approximately 60 year cyclical component. When you remove that natural pattern, there is actually very little left that could be attributed to CO2 in the atmosphere. When you have done all that, you then can use that model to make a determination of whether there is a systematic change due to CO2. There are sophisticated tools available for doing that, much more involved than I can describe here. But, it is apparent by inspection that there is very little influence once you have accounted for everything as I have outlined above. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:20 PM Bart says: “Nate In the first place, the claimed sigma was 0.1, not 0.05.” No, 0.1 C was the test for significance, presumably the 95% confidence limit, appx 2sigma. Sigma for each annual temperature is 0.05 C, as Roy has written before on this blog. BTW: A calculation for polling data from two academic statisticians agrees nearly exactly with my 66%: http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2017/01/the-statistical-tie-fallacy.html (Roundoff error.) David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:21 PM Yes, Nate, I think that’s right, as I wrote below. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 3:45 PM You’re an idiot and a blackguard, Appell. http://www.steynonline.com/7661/the-craziness-of-the-climate-science-echo-chamber I showed in voluminous detail why you are wrong. You haven’t even chipped a full cube off the iceberg. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:34 AM More ad hominem attacks Bart. That’s all the game you ever have. Tim Folkerts says: January 6, 2017 at 12:28 PM Since my name came up … a couple quick comments. First, if a=0.5 and b=0.48, then a>b. Period. No statistics required. I suspect what Nate meant is something more like “We have two numbers, a=0.5, b=0.48, that we know a priori were drawn from two distributions (call them “A” and “B”) with Gaussian pdfs and sigma =0.05. We want to know prob that the mean of A (“mu_A”) is greater than the mean of B (“mu_B”), or that (mu_A)-(mu_B)>0.” Then the 61% probability quoted above sound about right. But this requires assumed knowledge of the distributions and assumed knowledge that the items were drawn randomly. Beyond the pure statistics, there are then the (to me) more important questions about drift in the sensors and changes in the data sets being used. Presumably these are one major source of the estimated uncertainties of 0.05 that have been quoted. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:48 PM Correct, Tim. I chose not to quibble. But, the more important deal is that there is an implicit assumption that both El Ninos are of equal intensity, and the only variation beyond CO2 induced warming is the instrument error. That alone renders the result wholly disconnected from reality. Moreover, not all the change would be due to CO2 induced warming – there are other influences upon temperature beyond El Nino and CO2. Many more. And, then you get into the problems you identify. If I took the analysis at DA’s word, I would simply counter with, “OK, 0.02 deg in 18 years is 0.011 deg/decade. Congratulations, you just proved AGW is negligible.” But, I didn’t do that, because the analysis is ridiculous on its face. Bryan says: January 9, 2017 at 8:43 AM From https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1C1AVNE_enGB620GB620&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=margin%20of%20error%20definition 1.2.4 State units in the accepted SI format. There are several ways to write most derived units. For example: meters per second can be written as m/s or m s-1. It is important to note that only the latter, m s-1, is accepted as a valid format. Therefor, you should always write meters per second (speed) as m s-1 and meters per second per second (acceleration) as m s-2. Note that this applies to all units, not just the two stated above. 1.2.5 State values in scientific notation and in multiples of units with appropriate prefixes. When expressing large or small quantities we often use prefixes in front of the unit. For example, instead of writing 10000 V we write 10 kV, where k stands for kilo, which is 1000. We do the same for small quantities such as 1 mV which is equal to 0,001 V, m standing for milli meaning one thousandth (1/1000). When expressing the units in words rather than symbols we say 10 kilowatts and 1 milliwatt. A table of prefixes is given on page 2 of the physics data booklet. 1.2.6 Describe and give examples of random and systematic errors. Random errors A random error, is an error which affects a reading at random. Sources of random errors include: The observer being less than perfect The readability of the equipment External effects on the observed item Systematic errors A systematic error, is an error which occurs at each reading. Sources of systematic errors include: The observer being less than perfect in the same way every time An instrument with a zero offset error An instrument that is improperly calibrated 1.2.7 Distinguish between precision and accuracy. Precision A measurement is said to be accurate if it has little systematic errors. Accuracy A measurement is said to be precise if it has little random errors. A measurement can be of great precision but be inaccurate (for example, if the instrument used had a zero offset error). 1.2.8 Explain how the effects of random errors may be reduced. The effect of random errors on a set of data can be reduced by repeating readings. On the other hand, because systematic errors occur at each reading, repeating readings does not reduce their affect on the data. 1.2.9 Calculate quantities and results of calculations to the appropriate number of significant figures. The number of significant figures in a result should mirror the precision of the input data. That is to say, when dividing and multiplying, the number of significant figures must not exceed that of the least precise value. Example: Find the speed of a car that travels 11.21 meters in 1.23 seconds. 11.21 x 1.13 = 13.7883 The answer contains 6 significant figures. However, since the value for time (1.23 s) is only 3 s.f. we write the answer as 13.7 m s-1. The number of significant figures in any answer should reflect the number of significant figures in the given data. Tim S says: January 3, 2017 at 10:43 PM It seems to the me that the real question is the relative strength of the 1998 and 2016 El Nino events in area, intensity, and duration. If the “Godzilla” El Nino of 2016 was stronger than 1998 as advertised, than the global temperature should have been affected in the same way. Reply argus says: January 3, 2017 at 10:53 PM Tim I agree, and to do that, comparing Jan 1 to Dec 31 may not even be the best way. Reply argus says: January 3, 2017 at 10:54 PM Jan 1 – Dec 31 ’98 vs Jan 1 – Dec 31 ’16 Reply MarkB says: January 4, 2017 at 9:23 AM By ONI 1998 and 2016 were pretty close to equivalent. e.g. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Reply Tim S says: January 4, 2017 at 11:26 PM The peak is about the same, but the area under the curve is larger for 2016. Is that important? Reply MarkB says: January 5, 2017 at 7:52 AM Foster and Rahmstorf 2011 suggests that ONI lagged by about 5 months integrated over the calendar year as a first order approximation of the relative magnitude effect of El Nino events. To a second order, it seem plausible that prior warmth matters. If one were so motivated they could extend F&R with a autocorrelation term to investigate this. The more scientifically relevant parameter is the long term trend. Record warm years are more relevant as propaganda tools and it should surprise no one that that contrarians will minimize their significance and warmists will highlight them. Reply ren says: January 3, 2017 at 11:50 PM The decrease in solar activity has a huge impact on ozone and air circulation in the stratosphere. This is particularly important over the poles where there is practically no tropopause and waves in the stratosphere directly affect the troposphere. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_OND_NH_2016.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_OND_NH_2016.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2016.png Reply Entropic man says: January 4, 2017 at 6:59 AM I used woodforthetrees to get the linear trend for UAH6.0. http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/uah6/every/trend That is 0.45C in 37 years, 0.12C per decade. I also calculated how far the annual averages for 1998 and 2016 exceeded the trend. In 1998 the excess was 0.48-0= 0.48C. In 2016 the excess was 0.5C-0.25C = 0.25C This shows two things. Firstly, the 2016 El Nino was considerably weaker than 1998, so we are not comparing like with like. Secondly, the underlying UAH6.0 trend shows 0.25C warming since 1998. With John Christy’s quoted 95% confidence limits of +/-0.1C that is statistically significant warming. Reply Entropic man says: January 4, 2017 at 7:46 AM Just for fun I added the post-1998 trend to my graph. http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/uah6/every/trend/plot/uah6-land/from:1998/to:2017/trend Curiously the trend starts in 1998 at a higher value than the post-1979 trend and then reverts towards it. Conclusion? 1998 is an anomalously warm year, and not a good choice as a starting point for judging long term trends. Reply barry says: January 4, 2017 at 8:29 AM Don’t see the importance in comparing calendar years when using anomalies. The warmest 12 months were from Dec 2015 to Nov 2016 at 0.52C Reply sod says: January 4, 2017 at 10:20 AM sorry, but you are using facts again. People following this topic do not want facts. They prefer fake news. They do not like surface temperature data. it shows too much warming. They do not look at longer periods or other periods in the satellite set, as they also do not show anything that can be compared to 1998. people here prefer the single datapoint (Jan-Dez 2016, which in comparison with 1998 still shows an increase. so the method of their choice is the “tie” intervention. None of them ever uses this bizarre concept. Imagine you had a great dinner. Bets you ever had or just tied with your birthday dinner 2 years ago? Best book list? Absurd, as obviously the top 10 is mostly tied with each other. And let us not get into sports. basically the whole “winner” concept is dead, when we add a +-2 goals error range to soccer results and call 90% of the games a tie… Reply Lewis says: January 4, 2017 at 8:37 PM Sod, What you said is clear as dirt. Happy New Year Reply Steve Richards says: January 4, 2017 at 8:30 AM Gordon Robertson says: January 4, 2017 at 4:46 AM: Nitrogen has little radiative performance when compared to CO2 and H2O See: Thermal Radiative Transfer and Properties By M. Quinn Brewster Previews of this book are available via: https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=z_anVNTmQLUC&lpg=PA250&ots=118JAO5gvp&dq=radiative%20gases%20quantum&pg=PA250#v=onepage&q=radiative%20gases%20quantum&f=false Page 250 starts the explanation with quantum mechanics. Page 252 tells how nitrogen and oxygen do not react much to IR but CO2, H2O and others do and why they react and how the theory matches with physical tests that can be conducted to measure said sensitivity to IR. Page 259 goes into great detail about how CO2 and H2O react to IR photons: stretching, bending, stretching. Page 293 onwards contains some tables that indicate the effectiveness of H2O compared with CO2: Its all in the book, Gordon. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 9:59 AM All gases that are greenhouse gases consist of molecules of 3 atoms or more. Only those hae vibrational and rotational bands in the infrared. Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 12:33 PM Steve, Steve, Steve always relying on a book that displays tiny supporting details when the common sense answer is right in front of your face. humans do not cause catostrophic climate change and there’s nothing we can do to change that! End of story! Bye bye! See you later! Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 12:37 PM Btw Stevie. You can’t always trust everything people say on the internet. the earth is flat do you trust me? But but it’s on the internet so it has to be true. Lol Reply barry says: January 4, 2017 at 4:42 PM Steve seems to have more regard for books than blogs. Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 10:30 AM Air from Scandinavia reaches Greece and Italy. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00855/xynkpjs7qg90.png Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:40 AM OMG, you can’t be serious!? What does that leave for the Scandinavians to breathe? Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 10:44 AM This is only the evening. Wait a until morning. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 11:11 AM ren, I don’t see how the Scandanavians can go all night without breathing…. Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 10:52 AM And how is the temperature in the US? http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_europe/ANOM2m_mean_europe.png Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 11:12 AM What do you think this has to do with climate change, the subject of this blog? Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 12:26 PM These are changes in circulation associated with a decrease of solar activity. http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00855/wq4kwee7jx3k.png Ozone at a height of about 45 km. ren says: January 4, 2017 at 12:38 PM It will continue to be. http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/DipallR.gif ren says: January 4, 2017 at 1:15 PM This is not a joke, but a real threat to North America. http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00855/p3i7avs9uoer.gif David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 7:28 PM It’s just weather. I predict North American will survive. ClimateChange4realz says: January 4, 2017 at 1:34 PM Nothing. They all die. And they live happily ever after. The end. Happy new year. Reply John Parsons says: January 4, 2017 at 10:24 PM Why do you write like a foolish child? Do you think you are humorous? Do you imagine that your sarcastic name calling, belittling and bullying makes you appear knowledgeable? You are an embarrassment to reasonable skeptics. Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 9:58 AM In your dreams Sun Spot says: January 4, 2017 at 2:16 PM 2016 warmest year eve, just more fake news. . . Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 3:21 PM This is not a “trend”, but the weather. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/CustomGraphic/freeze1.gif Reply barry says: January 4, 2017 at 4:35 PM From way above: Fake news NOAA has perfected the art of obfuscating the temperature record by blatantly slashing 5000 surface stations from the global pool of 6500 Fact NOAA researchers spent a few years in the 90s obtaining hand-written climate data from around the world from the bulk of weather stations that do not send their data to the US in the format used by NOAA, and digitised this information. All the while, the 1500 or so stations outside the US that continually report to NOAA in the usable format continued to do so. So NOAA didn’t slash stations. They added a great many that don’t report information to NOAA. That project ended in the mid-90s. http://tinyurl.com/hztu3jj [NOAA research paper detailing the data collection programs] Fake news takes a few seconds to read. Facts take longer. Reply Scott says: January 4, 2017 at 9:26 PM The fact that “global warming” has changed to “climate change” in the realm of media discussion speaks volumes. Its really all anyone needs to know. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:30 PM From Republican pollster Frank Luntz’s memo “Words that Work,” a which he wrote to Republicans urging them to use the term “climate change” instead of “global warming”: “”Climate change” is less frightening than “global warming”. As one focus group participant noted, climate change ‘sounds like you’re going from Pittsburgh to Fort Lauderdale.’ While global warming has catastrophic connotations attached to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challenge.” “Frank Luntz “Straight Talk”: The Environment: A Cleaner, Safer, Healthier America” – memo to Bush Administration on communicating environmental issues, 2002 http://www.politicalstrategy.org/archives/001330.php Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 9:09 AM Now, here we have an “argument” that uses innuendo instead of substance. Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:17 PM Well worth reading, Roy: “The Myth Of The Statistical Tie,” David Drumm, jonathanturley.org, 10/6/2012 https://jonathanturley.org/2012/10/06/the-myth-of-the-statistical-tie/ Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:28 PM and: “Margin of Error,” Kevin Drum, Washington Monthly, August 19, 2004. http://washingtonmonthly.com/2004/08/19/margin-of-error-3/ The table he mentions is no longer on that page, but it can be found here: “One Last Encore for the Great “Statistical Tie” Fallacy,” Kevin Drum, Mother Jones, 10/3/12 http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/one-last-encore-great-statistical-tie-fallacy Reply Norman says: January 4, 2017 at 10:40 PM This article calculates climate sensitivity of Carbon Dioxide doubling at 0.43 C. The rest of the warming is from other causes. I have one I am working on at this time but have not calculated it yet. https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/analytical-approach-to-calculate-the-heat-fluxes-in-the-atmosphere-and-to-quantify-the-sensitivity-of-earth-temperature-due-to-co2-2157-7625-S5-012.pdf This work matches what the CERES data shows and makes sense with Hottel’s work. http://fchart.com/ees/gas%20emittance.pdf Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 10:49 PM Junk. CO2 is only 45% higher, and the temperature has risen more than twice 0.43 C. And that’s with aerosol cooling. Reply Norman says: January 4, 2017 at 11:42 PM David Appell Junk? Or you are an idiot and are unable to follow the logic of the derived equations so you post your typical unthinking reactionary comment “Junk” with no thought or explanation as to why you think the work of these researchers is “Junk”. Looking at their material I would not call it “Junk” and they explain in the article (which of course you did not read or consider before you stupid mindless post). What aerosol cooling? The EPA cleaned up the air removing vast amounts of pollutants (sulfur dioxide) that were reflecting solar radiation before it reached Earth’s surface. Look at Hottel’s equations to see how empty your scientific thought process seems to be. Increasing Carbon Dioxide concentration does very little to the emissivity at the current levels. If you look at Roy’s chart of all the years, the highest non El Nino years were around 0.2 C above the zero line which fits fairly well with the article you call “Junk”. One thing I wish you would realize is you are not as intelligent as you think you are. You post some alarmist points and pat yourself on the back but will not even consider alternate intelligence. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 8:51 AM Norman, did you even read the paper you’re hawking? The model is 1-dimensional. And not very realistic. From the paper: “In the present model, global mean parameters are used as constants, e.g. cloud height, relative humidity and Earth emissivity” “What aerosol cooling?” That around world — and not US-only. Reply Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 9:11 AM David Appell The paper’s primary purpose was not to make a realistic energy budget with all the factors. It was to find the radiation contribution of doubling Carbon Dioxide only. It made assumptions for those things not related to carbon dioxide. For the radiant energy increase caused by carbon dioxide alone it looks like they used Hottels’s work on emissivity of this gas. It does not go up much after a certain amount so it will not increase the downwelling IR (which is the only radiant component that can add extra energy to the surface). CERES data downwelling global average does show this. No increase in downwelling IR (all-sky) in 16 years. I know you somehow have concluded that the CERES graphs are my work so it is pointless to direct you to this link. Anyway thanks for looking at the paper. I don’t mind your views as long as they are based upon actual looking at what is posted. Wish you would do this with the CERES material. I would like to know your explanation of what is presented on this website (no increase in downwelling IR (all-sky) in 16 years and no increase in total flux (all-sky) in 16 years. To produce radiant warming you would have to have an increase in these two radiant fluxes. Good day to you. Hope you are having a Happy New Year working to convince everyone of the dire threat of Global Warming. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:15 PM Norman: But the surface temperature increase is 0.9 C, twice that paper’s purported climate sensitivity to CO2. Yet CO2 has’t even increased by 50% yet, let alone doubled. David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:16 PM Norman wrote: “The rest of the warming is from other causes.” What other causes? Reply David Appell says: January 4, 2017 at 11:20 PM “The Statistical Tie Fallacy,” davidappell.blogspot.com 1/4/17. http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2017/01/the-statistical-tie-fallacy.html Reply ren says: January 4, 2017 at 11:35 PM Arctic air moving south in Europe. This is only the weather. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00855/xpc1gu9yozqo.png Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 12:36 AM This is only the weather. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/CustomGraphic/freeze1.gif Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 1:11 AM Is the ocean surface temperature anomalies indicate the global warming? http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.1.2.2017.gif Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:12 PM This shows your global warming: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File:Ocean_Heat_Content_(2012).png Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 12:39 AM Why do not you admit that the temperature determines the air circulation? Does adding CO2 protect against attack arctic air? Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 12:42 AM Sorry! Why do not you admit that with a temperature determines the air circulation? Does adding CO2 protect against attack arctic air? Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 5, 2017 at 2:10 AM DA…”The Statistical Tie Fallacy,” Do you, or do you not accept the IPCC admission of a 15 year warming hiatus between 1998 and 2016? I have posted the link several times with the page number but I’ll do it gain if you like. If you accept the 2012 IPCC review with it multiple peer reviewed sources, I don’t see why you have problems with the UAH data. Between 1998 and 2012 they agree to a flat trend. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:54 AM Ahem: “Much-touted global warming pause never happened” http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/06/much-touted-global-warming-pause-never-happened I take it that you are aware that even the IPCC report indicated that the temperature was still rising during this “pause”? I only ask because a lot of you only seem to understand the word “hiatus” out of the entire text. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 8:52 AM Gordon, you’ve asked me this several times, and I’ve answered it several times. Reply Norman says: January 4, 2017 at 11:43 PM If I did my calculations properly my idea would be off by a factor of 10. The link explained that man building dams and pulling up water for irrigation led to more water evaporated than if man had not done such tasks. I was using the graph to figure how much latent energy would be released into the atmosphere by man’s increased use of water. I used 1000 cubic KM/year as my choice just to see where this figure would lead. latent heat to turn 1 gram of water into vapor is 600 calories so you get this energy in return when the vapor condenses to water. 1000 cubic kilometers of water is equal to 10^18 grams. 1000 km^3 = 600×10^18 calories or 2500 joules x 10^18. 2.5×10^21 joules of additional energy released a year by extra evaporation/condensation cycle. Reply Lewis says: January 5, 2017 at 7:31 AM Norman, Re: Dams Have you taken into consideration the vegetation that was replaced by water? Many, not all, dams, flood areas which had a great amount of plants, whose affects would have to be considered before you can make final conclusions. Lewis Reply Norman says: January 4, 2017 at 11:44 PM Would not take the links, if interested the sight was Aquastat. http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water_use/image/WithTimePop_eng.png Reply Norman says: January 4, 2017 at 11:46 PM It took a link to the graph page I was using. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Ocean_Heat_Content_%282012%29.png But the latent energy release would not be enough by a factor of 10 to explain the ocean gain in energy. 2.5×10^21 joules/year would not explain the energy increase in the oceans. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 5, 2017 at 2:52 AM A couple of pieces of news today. The good news is that Judith Curry is apparently hurt at being left out of the death-threat and e-mail-hacking championships and has resigned. One loony fewer! The bad news is: “Much-touted global warming pause never happened” http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/06/much-touted-global-warming-pause-never-happened Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 3:06 AM Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice extent is currently the same as in previous years. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php Reply fonzarelli says: January 5, 2017 at 3:13 AM Don’t worry, Bigmouth, with global cooling on the way we won’t need Dr. Curry anyhow. (why don’t you go back out in the wilderness and take a few pictures)… Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 6, 2017 at 4:58 AM Dream on. We didn’t need her anyway, by the way. Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 3:14 AM Do you think it is warmer in January in North America than a year ago? http://www.intellicast.com/WxImages/TEMPcast/usa_048.jpg?t=213 Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 6, 2017 at 4:57 AM I’m not interested in the provinces. This is about GLOBAl warming. See graph at the top. Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 3:18 AM “What if the missing heat has been there all along?” http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.1.2.2017.gif Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 3:24 AM Dr. Curry explained, the deeper reasons have to do with my growing disenchantment with universities, the academic field of climate science and scientists I no longer know what to say to students and postdocs regarding how to navigate the CRAZINESS in the field of climate science. Research and other professional activities are professionally rewarded only if they are channeled in certain directions approved by a politicized academic establishment funding, ease of getting your papers published, getting hired in prestigious positions, appointments to prestigious committees and boards, professional recognition, etc. How young scientists are to navigate all this is beyond me, and it often becomes a battle of scientific integrity versus career suicide. Reply Lewis says: January 5, 2017 at 7:35 AM I believe Dr. Spencer addressed this in an earlier missive and was roundly chastised for doing so. Which lends much credence to Dr. Curry’s statement. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:10 AM Curry’s excuse is nonsense. Implying that everyone but yourself is corrupt is a pathetic insinuation, trying to save a little bit of face. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 5:10 PM Yeah, you’ve never viciously attacked her in unseemly non-science related terms, have you DA? Oh, wait… http://www.steynonline.com/7661/the-craziness-of-the-climate-science-echo-chamber Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:38 AM Like Curry never attacks anybody. But at least, unlike you, she includes some science. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:07 PM Double ironic, since’s Steyn makes a living by attacking people, and is being sued by one person he libeled. It’s the pot calling the ink stain black. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:59 PM Get a cloth, and wipe the spittle from your chin. ren says: January 5, 2017 at 3:33 AM Dr. Roy Spencer, thank you very much for your scientific honesty. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 7:24 AM Fake news The fact that global warming has changed to climate change in the realm of media discussion speaks volumes. Fact Both terms have been in use for decades and still are. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was inaugurated in 1988. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 8:07 AM Nah, don’t you know that the IPCC was first founded as IPGW? And later all records of this have been forged. ðŸ˜‰ Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 8:08 AM /sarc off Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 7:30 AM 2016 statistically indistinguishable from 1998 in the latest version of the UAH data set. Yep. Trend from 1998 to any year after – statistically indistinguishable from warming fast, warming cool, or no trend. AGW skeptics have renounced statistical analysis (statistical significance) right here on this blog as some kind of fakery. But as soon as it is convenient to their outlook…. Reply Lewis says: January 5, 2017 at 7:34 AM “convenient” is not exclusive to one side of an emotional argument. Pay Attention. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 8:15 AM Tacit agreement is adequate, despite the attempt to play tit for tat. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 7:42 AM IMHO, the headline “Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998” is misleading. This is not what “global satellites” says. The satellites by themselves don’t say anything. Instead, this is what your retrieval algorithm says, for which there hasn’t been published any detailed description of the underlying assumptions and methodology so far. Nor any information about the structural uncertainties inherent in your analysis. The UAH 6 version of your analysis apparently produces results that are an outlier, compared to both surface temperature analyses and other tropospheric temperature analyses based on the retrieval algorithms developed by other groups, e.g. Remote Sensing Systems. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 8:46 AM And, the UAH model code. No one can have a look at it. GISS makes their data model computer code available: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/faq/#q213 Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 5, 2017 at 8:54 AM UAH version 5.6 model code has been publicly available for years at NCDC/NCEI. The V6 code will be available there soon. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:12 AM Ok, I was wrong. Sorry. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:26 AM I got the notion UAH wasn’t sharing all their code from what Henry Waxman said to John Christy in 2006: “Well, I contacted RSS about your testimony and Mr. Frank Wentz sent me a letter last night, and he wrote to say, Dr. Christy has never been willing to share his computer code in a substantial way, and he provides the text of a 2002 e-mail exchange between RSS and yourself. In light of this letter, Dr. Christy, I would be interested if you care to clarify your testimony because Mr. Wentz wrote further, I think the complexity issue was a red herring. My interpretation of Dr. Christys response is he simply didnt want us looking over his shoulder, possibly discovering errors in his work. So we had to take a more tedious trial-and-error approach to uncovering the errors in his methods. What do you say about that? That sounds inconsistent with what you have told us.” https://thinkprogress.org/quoting-john-christy-on-climate-change-is-like-quoting-dick-cheney-on-iraq-414c7bc89cac#.jiq5ev8hs Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 9:15 PM Roy, does your response mean you DIDN’T share your code before v5.6? During all those years where you had a sign error? People say they had to reverse engineer your methodology to finally point out this sign error to you…. ….and that you and Christy were uncooperative all the way. Is that what the Waxman quote above is about? Would appreciate some straightforward answerw, finally. ren says: January 5, 2017 at 8:56 AM I repeat: when the polar vortex is strong is a range of cold air is smaller. The cycle changes in the strength of the polar vortex depends on solar activity. Weak vortex may occur over many years and temperatures fall on mid latitudes. Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 9:04 AM The current temperatures in the northern hemisphere show no growth. http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Current.aspx Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 9:14 AM You are right. I looked at this picture under the link for whole five minutes. Nothing was growing in there. Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 9:25 AM Two factors affect the global temperature: ENSO and the condition of the polar vortex. Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 9:27 AM No growth compared to when — an hour ago, or yesterday? Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 9:30 AM Look at minimum temperatures. http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Minimum.aspx Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 9:40 AM It can can be seen here warming in the northern hemisphere? https://weather.gc.ca/data/saisons/images/[email protected]@sd_000.png Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:54 PM ren: Your charts of specific days demonstrate nothing. Why can’t you understand that? Or are you just desperate to comment here in any way whatsoever? Salvatore Del Prete says: January 5, 2017 at 9:52 AM AGW theory is a hoax there is o global warming and now global cooling will be the rule going forward. End of the story . Reply Tim Folkerts says: January 5, 2017 at 10:23 AM Wasn’t that your “end of story” a decade ago? ðŸ™‚ Reply David Appell says: January 5, 2017 at 3:07 PM Global cooling has started, and it will be here for sometime to come. All the factors that control the climate are now in, or going toward a colder phase. – Salvatore del Prete, December 31, 2010 http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/12/dessler-and-spencer-debate-cloud-feedback/#comment-8257 Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 3:51 PM Has it warmed significantly since a decade ago? Or, are you relying on a transient El Nino to give you just a little more time until the music stops? Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:40 AM Ten years is too short a time period to draw conclusions about global warming. Reply Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:58 PM Then, what is the point of your and Tim’s responses to Salvatore? Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:58 PM My response was to you. BTW, if you’re really silly enough to ask for a 10-yr trend, for UAH v6 LT it’s (+0.33 +/- 0.11) C/decade. 95% CL for MOE. +/- 0.38 C/decade for rank 1 autocorrelation. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:08 PM AR(1) is entirely inappropriate for these data. Any analysis based on that presumption is about as well-rooted as Birnam Wood. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:53 PM I didn’t say AR(1) was “appropriate.” I said what the result was if you assumed rank 1 autocorrelation. Of course, since you are incapable of doing any mathematics at all, grumbling is all you can ever do. David J Sanchez says: January 5, 2017 at 11:25 AM Bottom line is that there is no proof whatsoever that the changes we see are anthropogenic, or caused by humankind. Throughout history in the past, before the advent of the Industrial Revolution with the introduction of factories and the automobiles, there have been periods of even warmer teperatures, than we have experienced in the last 100 years. Studying the climate is a multi disciplinary undertaking, and should never have included those that are utilizing taxpayer money (subsidies) to fill their pockets. This is mostly a plan to take more money It of taxpayer’s to create more regulations to restrict human activity under government control. True free markets with intelligent dialogue and discussion would solve most problems besetting us today. Research and investigation of this subject is most important, not the EMOTION that rules this anomaly presently. Wake up everyone! Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 1:21 PM “Bottom line is that there is no proof whatsoever that the changes we see are anthropogenic, or caused by humankind.” If this is supposed to be a conclusion drawn from above data, it’s a non sequitur. Generally, there is no “proof” in science for anything, in the meaning of mathematical proof or absolute certainty. There is only evidence in science. And the evidence overwhelmingly points to that human activity has been a major cause of global warming observed since pre-industrial times, and the main cause for the warming since the mid-20th century. The evidence that would support any other explanation for the observed global warming (and related other changes in the Earth system) falls systematically short. “Throughout history in the past, before the advent of the Industrial Revolution with the introduction of factories and the automobiles, there have been periods of even warmer teperatures, than we have experienced in the last 100 years.” When were these periods, according to what data? “Studying the climate is a multi disciplinary undertaking, and should never have included those that are utilizing taxpayer money (subsidies) to fill their pockets.” I don’t understand what you are exactly saying here. Are you saying government should not fund science? And when scientists get a salary, they were illegitimate “filling their pockets”? What else should be? How should science be funded? And are scientists supposed to work for free? Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 3:54 PM “The evidence that would support any other explanation for the observed global warming (and related other changes in the Earth system) falls systematically short.” Argumentum ad ignorantiam. “How should science be funded? And are scientists supposed to work for free?” – Testimony by Tobacco Institute scientists, circa 1978 Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 4:37 PM “Argumentum ad ignorantiam” False claim. It would have been true, if I had said that alternative explanations for global warming were false because evidence for them had fallen systematically short. This is not what I said. ” Testimony by Tobacco Institute scientists, circa 1978″ Source? Also, I’m missing what your argument is in reply to my question. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:47 PM You are arguing for a conclusion based on purported lack of evidence for an alternative. Classic logical fallacy. You cannot be blind to the fact that enormous sums of money are being exchanged for scientific testimony favorable to the AGW conjecture. And, we have nothing to show for it. Temperatures are not rising any faster than they have for over 100 years, with only occasional cyclical departures of varying duration. We can go about this point forever, but things should become a lot clearer once the present El Nino has run its course. Until then, I suggest you have an exit strategy planned. Just, you know, to be safe and cover all your bases. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 6:01 PM “You are arguing for a conclusion based on purported lack of evidence for an alternative. Classic logical fallacy.” Stop misrepresenting what I said. This is not what I did. Instead, I argued for one explanation stating that there was overwhelming available evidence for it, and then I compared this to the lack of evidence for alternative explanations. “You cannot be blind to the fact that enormous sums of money are being exchanged for scientific testimony favorable to the AGW conjecture.” And here comes the conspiracy fantasy. “Temperatures are not rising any faster than they have for over 100 years, with only occasional cyclical departures of varying duration.” What is that supposed to prove. This is not in contradiction to global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing has been present for more than 100 years. “We can go about this point forever, but things should become a lot clearer once the present El Nino has run its course.” What exactly will allegedly happen? The recent El Nino had run its course months ago. Instead, La-Nina conditions have been present for multiple months already. “Until then, I suggest you have an exit strategy planned. Just, you know, to be safe and cover all your bases.” What’s with the innuendo? Sounds like a veiled threat. What’s your plan? Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 6:27 PM “I argued for one explanation stating that there was overwhelming available evidence for it…” There isn’t. There is only rationalization and confirmation bias. “…and then I compared this to the lack of evidence for alternative explanations.” If you don’t know the explanation, then lacking evidence for it is rather tautological. “And here comes the conspiracy fantasy.” A fantasy is something for which there is no reliable evidence. We have the Climategate emails. We’ve seen the manipulation of the data. We know the vast sums of money sloshing around. Those are all concrete data points. Perhaps there is no conspiracy, per se. But, there is plainly a lot of groupthink, and a convergence of interests. “Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing has been present for more than 100 years.” On the record, then. You are claiming that early 20th century warming was driven by the same process that drove later 20th century warming? Is that what you are claiming? Because, that is not what your peers are claiming. “What exactly will allegedly happen?” It will either A) resume the interrupted warming trend, B) continue the “pause”, or C) enter a cooling phase. I very much doubt (A). (B) would be bad enough for you. (C) would be extremely awkward, to say the least. “Sounds like a veiled threat.” That’s pretty bizarre. Do you think the AGW hypothesis will survive if the Earth reenters a cooling phase, as it has every ~60 years for at least two cycles now? I would have a backup plan, that’s all. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 7:45 PM “There isnt. There is only rationalization and confirmation bias.” Now, that possibly explains why you are misrepresenting my statements. “If you dont know the explanation, then lacking evidence for it is rather tautological.” What makes you think I didn’t know any alternative explanations that have been proposed? “A fantasy is something for which there is no reliable evidence. We have the Climategate emails. Weve seen the manipulation of the data. We know the vast sums of money sloshing around.” There is no reliable evidence for this. Just assertions, accusations, insinuations, and conjecture. “On the record, then. You are claiming that early 20th century warming was driven by the same process that drove later 20th century warming? Is that what you are claiming? Because, that is not what your peers are claiming.” I’m saying that greenhouse gas forcing also significantly contributed to the warming in the early 20th century. Solar activity also increased. Thus this climate driver contributed too. I’m not aware that this is really different from what my peers says. It’s not different from what is said in the last IPCC report, is it? Greenhouse gas forcing didn’t start in the 1950s or 1970s. “It will either A) resume the interrupted warming trend, B) continue the pause, or C) enter a cooling phase. I very much doubt (A). (B) would be bad enough for you. (C) would be extremely awkward, to say the least.” The claim about the allegedly “interrupted warming trend”, i.e., the so-called “pause” lacks 1.) a proper definition of the “pause”, based on reproducible scientific/statistical criteria and 2.) lack of statistical evidence of an interruption in the warming trend. Thus, the notion that something would have to resume is non-existent for me. Without evidence that global warming has “paused” nothing needs to “resume”. The same for B. Re C: Since radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is continuously increasing the likelyhood for entering a cooling phase is very low, even if the sun indeed went into a phase similar to the Maunder minimum. The negative radiative forcing change would have some counter-effect, but would be smaller in magnitude than the increase in radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. “Thats pretty bizarre. Do you think the AGW hypothesis will survive if the Earth reenters a cooling phase, as it has every ~60 years for at least two cycles now? I would have a backup plan, thats all.” I suppose with “cooling phase” you mean the apparent hiatus periods between about 1880 and 1920 and about 1940 and 1970? The latter is generally recognized to be largely caused by an increase in negative aerosol forcing. However, regardless of these hiatus periods, there has still been an overall warming trend over the whole century, whatever the explanation for these hiatus periods is. If such a cooling phase occurred again without any forcing (like aerosols, e.g. from strong volcanic eruptions) the effect of which we have principally understood to explain it, then maybe we have underestimated unforced variability in the oceans. But how would that empirically or logically contradict warming by anthropogenic greenhouse gases? It just would mean that warming would resume with full force once the ocean variability is in phase again with anthropogenic forcing. Sounds like a veiled threat. Thats pretty bizarre. Do you think the AGW hypothesis will survive if the Earth reenters a cooling phase, as it has every ~60 years for at least two cycles now? I would have a backup plan, thats all. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 7:47 PM The last two paragraphs are from the comment to which I replied. Remove then (in your mind at least). Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 7:49 PM With the one sentence being a quote by me, which had been cited. Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 8:49 PM “Im saying that greenhouse gas forcing also significantly contributed to the warming in the early 20th century.” At precisely the same underlying rate, with uniform spacing between local maxima and minima, while CO2 concentration did not take off until mid-century. Okey, dokey. “The latter is generally recognized to be largely caused by an increase in negative aerosol forcing.” Yes, and ulcers are generally recognized to arise from stress, and dietary fat is bad for blood cholesterol, and supplementary vitamins beyond what your body needs will make you healthier, and so on and on. These are all things that were generally believed up until quite recently. They were not so. Yet, very qualified people nevertheless adopted them as truths without any verification. This is rationalization, not science. “Since radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is continuously increasing the likelyhood for entering a cooling phase is very low, even if the sun indeed went into a phase similar to the Maunder minimum.” Radiative forcing is subject to pushback from compensating feedbacks within the climate system. You guys really had no business going out on such a limb before you had seen confirming data of the effect. But, that’s your story and, I assume, you are sticking to it. We shall see… Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 11:09 AM CO2 increased from 280 ppm to about 310 ppm from pre-industrial to the mid-20th century. The CO2 increase translates to a radiative forcing by CO2 of about 0.54 W/m^2. This is already about twice as large as the solar radiative forcing between the Grand solar maximum period and Maunder minimum. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 11:10 AM What am I saying. About 2.5 as large. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:41 AM Bart says: “You cannot be blind to the fact that enormous sums of money are being exchanged for scientific testimony favorable to the AGW conjecture.” Prove it. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:57 PM Jan P Perlwitz @ January 6, 2017 at 11:09 AM More rationalization. You do not appear to comprehend the many implicit assumptions just in what you wrote in that paragraph. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:09 PM I comprehend that you have to offer nothing with any substance. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 4:02 PM If that is the case, then we are even. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:50 PM Bart says: “Do you think the AGW hypothesis will survive if the Earth reenters a cooling phase, as it has every ~60 years for at least two cycles now?” Of course it will survive — it’s already established. Natural variations aren’t going to change that, just as they haven’t changed it so far. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:05 PM “Verdict first, trial after!”, said the Red Queen. And now, you find yourself in a tangled web, grasping at straws to maintain the fiction you determined before the evidence was in. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 9:18 PM I’m starting to understand you, Bart. 1. You think you are a master of mathematics, even though you can’t do any. 2. You knowledge of the science is very weak. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:45 PM Whatever… barry says: January 5, 2017 at 4:41 PM That last quote is clearly a cynical fabrication. This commenter is not trustworthy. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:52 PM “That last quote is clearly a cynical fabrication. This commenter is not trustworthy.” – Senator Larry Craig, circa 2007 What a bunch of maroons. Are you really all so dull? This just in: Jonathan Swift endorses processing Irish babies into food. Film at 11. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 6:07 PM I’m still waiting for an answer what your alleged argument is. Are you seriously saying that scientists should not get paid for doing their work? barry says: January 6, 2017 at 10:32 AM No, not that one. This one How should science be funded? And are scientists supposed to work for free? Tobacco Scientist circa 1978 I call bull. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 2:01 PM LOL. Such intellectual candlepower. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:48 PM More insults from Bart, who never supplies any science whatsoever. Bart is the definition of fake news. barry says: January 7, 2017 at 9:12 PM LOL. Such intellectual candlepower. I’ll take an honest lackwit over a smart deceiver. You fabricated this: How should science be funded? And are scientists supposed to work for free? Tobacco Scientist circa 1978 Not just a lie, but a ‘clever’ lie, the very worst kind. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 4:57 AM Jan P Perlwitz says, January 5, 2017 at 1:21 PM: There is only evidence in science. And the evidence overwhelmingly points to that human activity has been a major cause of global warming observed since pre-industrial times, and the main cause for the warming since the mid-20th century. Strange how you people keep repeating this meme over and over, without ever actually showing us even a single piece from this “overwhelming” heap of evidence. Smacks of pure, unadulterated propaganda tactics and not much else. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 9:32 AM The assertion is a blatant lie. I have repeatedly cited scientific publications or data in various threads here where I participated to back up my statements, if it has been needed. Reply Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 2:09 PM Like what? Name ONE piece of observational evidence from the real Earth system that shows that our emissions of CO2 has caused ‘global warming’. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 6:55 PM You are asking the impossible from science. The request to present observations that show a causality is nonsense. Observations don’t show any causality ever. Causality statements are part of the theory that explains the object of scientific research. Such theory can make statements about what specific behavior observables should show, if a specific causality is present. If the observations show according behavior than they are interpreted to corroborate the theory and the causality statements of the theory. And they are taken as evidence in support of the theory. Kristian says: January 9, 2017 at 5:15 AM Jan P Perlwitz says, January 8, 2017 at 6:55 PM: You are asking the impossible from science. The request to present observations that show a causality is nonsense. It’s not me who claims the following (that’s you, Jan P. Perlwitz): “And the evidence overwhelmingly points to that human activity has been a major cause of global warming observed since pre-industrial times, and the main cause for the warming since the mid-20th century.” What ‘evidence’? And exactly how does this evidence ‘overwhelmingly’ point to our activity as a major cause of ‘global warming’? I assume that when claiming the existence of such evidence, apparently overwhelmingly pointing in a particular causal direction, you can actually produce at least ONE example … Or else I will have to agree with Bart when he calls your claimed “evidence” mere “rationalization and confirmation bias.” In fact, I would go further and call it mere “conjecture.” Observations dont show any causality ever. Of course they do. A tight and consistent lead-lag relationship over time between two related physical variables quite evidently points to a cause and effect connection. I’m not asking for more than this. Do you have such a connection. Like, say, +CO2 -> +T? In the real Earth system? David J Sanchez says: January 5, 2017 at 11:30 AM Also to be honest on this subject the amount of water vapor and solar activity are much more important linchpins in weather and climate. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 1:30 PM The water vapor in the atmosphere is not a climate driver. It doesn’t cause climate change. It is a dependent variable. Water vapor is strongly dependent on the temperature. It is very important for climate feedbacks, though. Solar irradiance is a climate driver, but solar activity has not increased significantly since the mid-20th century. It has decreased over the recent solar cycles, and it has even more decreased since the maximum of solar cycle 23. Some solar physicist say that the sun may go into a state in the near future next, which was similar to the Maunder minimum. Thus, the solar activity changes over recent decades would rather imply a cooling tendency of climate, which has not been observed. On the contrary. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 3:56 PM It’s called thermal inertia, dearee. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 4:44 PM Thermal inertia in the temperature response to what perturbation that occurred when? A response with thermal inertia would show the largest rate of change at the time of the perturbation and then asymptotically approach an equilibrium state with a decreasing rate of change. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:55 PM Not in a multi-reservoir system. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 6:12 PM You haven’t answered my question. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 1:57 PM We were talking about solar forcing. And, for Nate’s benefit, in a multi-reservoir system, past thermal excitation of one of the reservoirs can produce continual change in the others long after the excitation has ceased. It is like going from an RC circuit to an LRC one in electronics. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:13 PM You still haven’t answered my question. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 4:00 PM I think I did. The only question I saw was “Thermal inertia in the temperature response to what perturbation that occurred when?”, and the answer was the same as we have been discussing, variations in solar forcing. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 7, 2017 at 7:23 PM That was not clear. Solar activity increase until about the mid 20th century. After that it hasn’t changed much anymore. And for the recent solar cycles, there has been first a slight decrease; and a somewhat stronger decrease since the maximum of cycle 23. What is the evidence, based on which you claim that the increase in solar forcing caused the global warming trend after the hiatus period of about 1940-1970 as a delayed response of the temperature to the earlier increase in solar forcing? Jan P Perlwitz says: January 7, 2017 at 7:31 PM The last question needs some serious editing: What is the evidence, based on which you claim that the global warming trend after the hiatus period of about 1940-1970 was a delayed response of the temperature to the pre-mid 20th century increase in solar forcing? David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:47 PM And what does a “delayed response” mean? Does the extra energy circulate through some capacitors or something, waiting decades for discharge? Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:42 PM Jan – “What is the evidence, based on which you claim that the global warming trend after the hiatus period of about 1940-1970 was a delayed response of the temperature to the pre-mid 20th century increase in solar forcing?” The first line of evidence is that CO2 is not the driver. The pattern of warming was laid in well before CO2 could have been the major driver. Moreover, CO2 responds to temperature in such a way that, were CO2 in turn to significantly drive temperatures, there would be a positive feedback loop that could not be stabilized even by T^4 emission, and we would have reached a tipping point eons ago. Having eliminated that phenomenon as the driving force, we need to move on to investigate others. As the Sun is the ultimate source of all significant surface heating, it is very likely that the observed, very regular pattern of warming is a long term modal response of the Earth’s climate system to solar forcing, quite probably in conjunction with solar and lunar tidal mixing, IMO. That does not confirm it as the culprit. More investigation is needed. But, we cannot gain further knowledge as long as we are focused on the dead end of CO2 hysteria. DA – “Does the extra energy circulate through some capacitors or something, waiting decades for discharge?” Literally, no. But, analogously, yes. But, more like the distributed capacitance of a very long transmission line, with local propagation speed limited to very much less than the speed of light. We are dealing with a system with very long term modal responses. It is hubris, indeed, to imagine that we have diagnosed the characteristics of this response based on the very brief record of reliable data available to us. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 4:48 PM “The first line of evidence is that CO2 is not the driver. The pattern of warming was laid in well before CO2 could have been the major driver. Moreover, CO2 responds to temperature in such a way that, were CO2 in turn to significantly drive temperatures, there would be a positive feedback loop that could not be stabilized even by T^4 emission, and we would have reached a tipping point eons ago.” These are mere assertions, apparently based on your personal beliefs. Stating your personal beliefs is not evidence in science. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 5:42 PM No, this is what the temp/CO2 records show. There really is no doubt about it. Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 4:50 PM If the inertia is as much as that, to cause few decades delay, then itll apply to AGW too, and we’re really in trouble.. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 4:56 PM Yeah, maybe the warming will be 100% higher than what it’s been. OMG, 100% of 0 is… still 0. Nate says: January 6, 2017 at 12:27 PM bart ‘Not in a multi-reservoir system.’ Huh? Hows that? ‘OMG, 100% of 0 is still 0.’ ok now I know that you are just blowin smoke.. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 12:54 PM If you do not know, then you really should not be offering your opinions on the subject. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:46 PM Bart, warming of anything has not been 0. Except for the stratosphere. But then, a cooling stratosphere is one of the fundamental predictions of greenhouse theory. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:02 PM Take out the natural pattern which has been in evidence since well before CO2 could have even potentially been a major player, and there is very little left that could actually be driven by CO2. The hypothesis is a bust. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:45 PM Bart says: “Take out the natural pattern which has been in evidence since well before CO2 could have even potentially been a major player” What natural pattern? What are the natural causes of modern warming? Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:14 PM There are many candidates. But it is beside the point. You are still promoting an argumentum ad ignoratiam. Nate says: January 5, 2017 at 4:52 PM And ditto on what Jan says Reply Sunsettommy says: January 5, 2017 at 11:33 AM Ha ha, all the whining about a .02C difference,when the real issue is the PER DECADE warming rate,which is currently waaaay below the IPCC’s projected rate of .30C per decade. Satellite data show about a .13C per decade warming rate. Since .02-04C difference from 1998,is so very small,the AGW conjecture dies really easily. The IPCC is wrong,NO global warming anyway since it is confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 12:30 PM This is what the IPCC report says: “The global mean surface temperature change for the period 20162035 relative to 19862005 will likely be in the range of 0.3C to 0.7C (medium confidence). This assessment is based on multiple lines of evidence and assumes there will be no major volcanic eruptions or secular changes in total solar irradiance. Relative to natural internal variability, near-term increases in seasonal mean and annual mean temperatures are expected to be larger in the tropics and subtropics than in mid-latitudes (high confidence). {11.3}” (Working Group I Report “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis”, http://ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/, Summary for Police Makers, page 20) Thus, according to the IPCC report, the projected warming rate between the 20 year averages 1986-2005 and 2016-2035 is about 0.1 to 0.23 deg C per decade. What is the source for your wrong assertion that the warming rate projected by the IPCC was 0.3 deg. C per decade? Also, the difference between two individual years, 2016 and 1998, doesn’t say anything about the observed warming rate over a time period. And comparing this difference with the warming rate as specified in the IPCC report and drawing any conclusions from such a comparison is methodologically also totally wrong. Reply Sunsettommy says: January 5, 2017 at 5:53 PM Two examples of the .30C per decade statement from the IPCC,which never later disavow their projections in future reports. “For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1C per decade would be expected.” https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html “under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases,a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2C to 0.5C per decade), this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years” http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_spm.pdf Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 6:42 PM “For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.” How is a projection of a temperature increase of 0.2 deg. C per decade an example for a projection of a 0.3 deg. C. per decade? And the projection of an average temperature increase of 0.2 deg. C per decade has not been falsified so far. As for your second example, the one from the first IPCC report. You selectively cite the projections for Scenario A. There are also a Scenario B and C with a 0.2 deg. C and 0.1 deg. C per decade projected average temperature increase, respectively. Actual forcings after 1990 have not followed Scenario A. They have rather followed Scenario B. A proper evaluation of such projections requires that the projections are compared for the same forcing that has been observed. The observed surface temperature trend since 1990 is near 0.2 deg. C per decade. Also, there is nothing to “disavow”. The demand to “disavow” something sounds more like the desire for political inquisition. Science revises previous statements when new evidence requires this. This is part of the normal scientific process. Reply sod says: January 5, 2017 at 1:51 PM “Ha ha, all the whining about a .02C difference,when the real issue is the PER DECADE warming rate,which is currently waaaay below the IPCCs projected rate of .30C per decade.” You are utterly wrong. For a start, the “projected” rates are all for SURFACE temperature. Thanks Roy for giving fake news to those who understand absolutely nothing! Reply Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says: January 5, 2017 at 1:56 PM Wrong. I’m not that stupid, sod. I’m talking apples-to-apples…same atmospheric layer measured by the satellite versus in the models. But, since you insist on the accusation of “fake news”…buh-bye. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 2:25 PM What paper is that about which you are talking, where this comparison has been published? Reply Sunsettommy says: January 5, 2017 at 5:42 PM NONE of the Surface data does either,Sod. Reply Sunsettommy says: January 5, 2017 at 6:09 PM Sod,consider that the “surface” is not static,but highly variable, The Surface temperature data can be from below sea level (Death Valley) to 6,000 feet (Denver). Satellite temperature data is from the LOWER Troposphere region,quoting Roy: “The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December 2016 was +0.24 deg.” Think about it,Sod. Reply ren says: January 5, 2017 at 12:29 PM Arctic Temperatures Continue for Much of the Lower 48. http://www.intellicast.com/Video/Player.aspx?id=76b6cace-31a8-4e38-819c-88e487167d17 Reply Ray Blinn says: January 5, 2017 at 1:58 PM Obviously the warmest years in recent history have been right after El Nino years. With 2016 being 0.02 deg C higher than 1998 and the time span between these two events being 18 years the trend line between El Nino peaks is 0.00111 deg C per year. Assuming the trend continues, the earth will be 0.111 deg C warmer 100 years from now. Does that justify the extreme measures some on the left advocate? I personally think asphalt parking lots and masonry buildings have a greater affect on temperature readings than CO2. The heat island effect is well documented. Most of our land based temperature readings are from urban areas. While they claim that these temperatures have been corrected to cancel the heat island effect their correction factor is suspect especially since their readings don’t correlate well with satellite data. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 2:31 PM You forgot to provide the information what the confidence interval is of the trend estimate that you derived using merely two data points. It’s totally unscientific to estimate a trend like this. But whatever, as long as it’s serves as support for some political statement? Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 5:14 PM Please inform your sympathizers upthread. Reply Nate says: January 6, 2017 at 1:22 PM bart You seem to think I would advocate finding the trend this way, with two data points? Hardly. Never made that argument, nor has David A. Reply Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 1:53 PM Actually, you did, even if you did not realize it. Nate says: January 7, 2017 at 11:40 AM Show me where…again blowin smoke.. You tend to paint everyone who disagrees with you as an idiot…whatever supports ur ego.. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:01 PM I merely observe. Objectively speaking, I am a very smart guy. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:44 PM Lots of people are “smart guys.” But you still have to provide data and evidence and analysis, which you never do. Or maybe you’re not as smart as you think you are. mandrewa says: January 5, 2017 at 3:46 PM Zeke Hausfather et al. have published a new paper on measuring sea surface temperatures. See http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601207.full. Based on data from buoys floating in the ocean they report an increase of 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade over the last several decades. That’s the same number the satellites are giving. The correlation between the satellite and the buoy data is very strong. Reply Entropic man says: January 5, 2017 at 4:05 PM The linear trend for UAH6.0 is 0.45C since 1979. That is 0.12C per decade. http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/every/plot/uah6/every/trend As you say, the same as the buoy data. Reply michael hart says: January 5, 2017 at 6:10 PM Then it’s a pity that the alarmists wanted more than 0.2C per decade, isn’t it? G’Day, EM. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:30 AM Who said anyone wanted > 0.2 C/dec warming? Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 4:49 PM The trend of 0.12C/decade in Hausfather’s SST analysis is for the period Jan 1997 to Dec 2015. That’s a higher trend than UAH v6 for the same period, which is 0.014C/decade. The trend for UAH5.6 for the same period is 0.12C/decade. Reply mandrewa says: January 5, 2017 at 5:23 PM In an earlier comment, on Jan. 3rd, Dr. Spencer said, Maybe in each monthly update I should have the headline: “Warming Rate Still Only 0.12 C/decade” But that would get a little boring. So I believe this means he thinks the trend is 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade. If you look at the satellite and buoy data they are strongly correlated. Every move in the satellite data is echoed by a move in the buoy data. One could hypothesize in fact that air temperatures over the ocean, at the level that the satellites measure them, are tightly constrained by the temperature of the ocean surface. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:30 PM Dr Spencer is referring to the UAHv6 trend from 1979 to present. 0.12C/decade The paper you have cited is referring to the trend in SSTs from 1997 to December 2015. 0.12C/decade UAHv6 trend for the same period as in the paper you cited is only 0.014C/decade – 1 tenth the rate of the SSTs per the paper you cited. However, the older version of UAH – v5.6 – matches the SST trend rate for the same period. However, all this is purely circumstantial, or coincidental, for various reasons. I was just pointing out that you had not noticed the periods were different – and what that meant. Reply mandrewa says: January 5, 2017 at 5:56 PM Well, good point. Thank you. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:33 PM To put it another way, Hausfather finds a trend of 0.12C/decade SSTs during the so-called ‘pause’ period. Reply Bart says: January 5, 2017 at 6:05 PM Which includes a large El Nino. We will see what happens when the Nino has passed. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 5, 2017 at 6:50 PM Curiously, I never have seen anyone of the “Hiatus” crowd complaining that the alleged “Hiatus” period had a very strong El Nino at the start of the alleged “Hiatus” (and a dominance of La Ninas at the end of the period). Suddenly, El Nino matters. How times change. fonzarelli says: January 5, 2017 at 8:36 PM Not true, Dr. P., there’s plenty of disagreement among sceptics as to whether the hiatus began in ’98 or ’03. Even Lord M. with his “pause posts” over at Watts’ went there in discussions. At any rate, Bart is right. It could very well be a whole new ball game in a couple years time. Comments like yours may well end up like moss covered tombstones sitting around the archived graveyards of climate blogs… Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:53 AM Jan P. Perlwitz…”I never have seen anyone of the Hiatus crowd complaining that the alleged Hiatus period had a very strong El Nino ” Jan…you need to get with the program. That alleged warming hiatus came straight out of the IPCC 2012 review. That’s what they called it despite Barry’s denial, leading him to find a quote that did not include the word hiatus. All the Ens are matched with following LNs except 2016 and it’s a-comin’. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 9:47 AM What is that supposed to prove that the word “hiatus” appears in the IPCC report? The context and what is actually said about it matters. “Skeptics” claim that global warming had stopped in 1998 or in 2002 or 2003 (or whatever start year is convenient for them at a moment). They also often misrepresent what the IPCC report says about this and suggest that the IPCC report supported such claims. However, this is not what the IPCC report says. According to the IPCC report, there is a robust global warming trend over multiple decades. In the IPCC report, the “hiatus” is taken as evidence that there was “substantial interannual to decadal variability” despite the “robust multi-decadal warming”. The IPCC report also talks about the high uncertainty of short-terms trends such as the one from 1998-2012 and the sensitivity of those trend estimates to the choice of the start and end year (which means that the statistics based on such short term periods aren’t robust): “Despite the robust multi-decadal warming, there exists substantial interannual to decadal variability in the rate of warming, with several periods exhibiting weaker trends (including the warming hiatus since 1998) (Figure TS.1). The rate of warming over the past 15 years (19982012; 0.05 [0.05 to +0.15] C per decade) is smaller than the trend since 1951 (19512012; 0.12[0.08 to 0.14] C per decade). Trends for short periods are uncertain and very sensitive to the start and end years. For example, trends for 15-year periods starting in 1995, 1996, and 1997 are 0.13 [0.02 to 0.24] C per decade, 0.14 [0.03 to 0.24] C per decade and 0.07 [0.02 to 0.18] C per decade, respectively.” (page 37 in The Physical Science Basis) All of this about the “hiatus” in the IPCC report refers solely to the surface temperature trend, but not to any other variables. Certainly not to the warming of the oceans. Further down in the IPCC report, it is then discussed whether climate models were able to reproduce such “hiatus” periods (page 61ff), particularly the one from 1998-2012. Also, whatever the IPCC report says, you seem to confuse it with the bible. The statements in the IPCC report are not canonical “truth”. Instead they may be flawed and they can be criticized like any scientific study or review paper, and they are subject to revision, if new evidence requires this. barry says: January 6, 2017 at 10:09 AM All the Ens are matched with following LNs except 2016 and its a-comin. That’s simply not true. Sometimes its years before a Nina forms – no sooner than average. And sometimes el Nino is followed by another Nino. Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:55 AM barry..”Hausfather finds a trend of 0.12C/decade SSTs during the so-called pause period.” Any idiot could find a trend on woodfortrees if he knew how to manipulate the parameters. The IPCC did not see a trend, only you and Hausfather. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 9:55 AM The IPCC didn’t find anything, since the IPCC doesn’t do the research. Every IPCC report is based on the research studies available at the time of publication of the report (or more precise, at the time of some cut-off date before publication of the report). The next IPCC report will also include the revised temperature analyses by Karl et al. and Hausfather et al. barry says: January 6, 2017 at 10:27 AM Gordon, you are seriously not following the conversation. I skimmed the paper. No idea if it’s sound or shit. I didn’t get any further than pointing out that the 2 trends cited have different time periods (one trend period is 19 years, and the other is exactly twice as long). If you have an issue with any of the quoted trend rates take it up with someone who is wedded to them. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:29 AM Just because the long-term trends are the same doesn’t imply correlation. That’s a separate question. Reply AlanF says: January 5, 2017 at 5:19 PM How much of heat island effect is due to increased dew poibt from water vapor arising from combustion of fuel? I think it should be possible to distinguish this from other uhi processes Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:33 PM What would be the point? To highlight that the urban heat island effect is man-made? Reply Fred says: January 5, 2017 at 5:20 PM Considering that average global temperature is thought to have fallen ~0.2 C from the 1940s to the 1970s, it can be said that there’s been no statistically significant warming for the last 75 years. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:40 PM Except that this is not the case. The linear trend since 1940 to present is statistically significant by a wide margin, regardless of which surface data set is used. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:41 PM Eg, Met office: 0.091 C / decade (+/- 0.018) Reply Fred says: January 7, 2017 at 3:13 AM Put away your hockeystick, boy. Reply barry says: January 7, 2017 at 9:16 PM You’re mixing your talking points up. Hockeysticks are about the millennial record from proxies, not the centennial record from instruments. And you’re wrong about the statistical significance. But you don’t really know what you’re talking about, so leave it alone and talk about something you do know about. Reply barry says: January 5, 2017 at 5:44 PM Pictures are helpful: http://tinyurl.com/ze5y9dp Reply Ceist says: January 5, 2017 at 7:32 PM RSS Press release Atmospheric temperature measured by satellites sets new record in 2016 http://images.remss.com/papers/rsstech/Jan_5_2017_news_release.pdf Reply Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:11 PM David Appell I would like to respond to your comment way above (easier to find down here). YOU: “Norman wrote: The rest of the warming is from other causes. What other causes?” Your post was in response to an article that calculated CO2 sensitivity at 0.43 C. You also posted: “Norman: But the surface temperature increase is 0.9 C, twice that papers purported climate sensitivity to CO2. Yet CO2 hast even increased by 50% yet, let alone double” Here are other causes of warming or cooling besides CO2 levels. http://www.universetoday.com/28876/aerosols-could-be-responsible-for-artic-warming/ Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 6:06 PM I mentioned black carbon in another reply, as globally the second largest forcing after CO2. Reply Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:15 PM David Appell Also Global Sulfur Dioxide has declined http://www.atmos-chem-phys.org/11/1101/2011/acp-11-1101-2011.pdf Look at Figure 3 page 1107 Top graph, this one is global emission of SO2. It has declined. It has increased in China but decreased over the globe. This is the aerosol that causes a cooling effect and it is down since 1970’s peak. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:26 AM I’m not sure aerosols have declined globally since 2005, when the paper was written. Is China cleaner since then? What about India? The Middle East? China and the US are only small fractions of the globe. We need to see data past 2005. BTW, the (negative) aerosol forcing also depends on the latitude of the aerosols, because that determines how much sunlight they reflect. Unlike the well-mixed gases CO2, CH4 etc, it’s much more involved to calculate the global influence of aerosols than just looking at a graph. Reply Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:18 PM David Appell Have you played with these calculators? http://www.geo.umass.edu/courses/climat/radbal.html Change the global albedo by just 1% and you get all the warming since the beginning of the industrial age. Since we have no good empirical data on albedo variance over time it would not be very scientific to rule its effects out and just magically assume this value does not change over time. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:20 AM So you have no data on albedo changes. I don’t either. But we know that aGHGs cause warming, and it’s warming that we see happening. Two big influences on albedo are: melting Arctic sea ice and NH snow cover –> lowers albedo planetary greening –> lowers albedo What things happening to you see that would increase planetary albedo? Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 1:15 PM David Appell YOU: “What things happening to you see that would increase planetary albedo?” Two things I can think of would. Increase of water on the land surface (more or bigger lakes overall) as water has a very low albedo. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo More forests could do it. Cloud changes are a really big factor, if one of the long term natural variations causes long term cloud cover variations you could easily change the Earth’s albedo 1%. My point with this, is without the information how can one make a scientific claim. Should they not monitor albedo as much as CO2 concentrations since both effect surface temperatures? Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 1:17 PM David Appell Sorry I did not answer your question correctly. You said what could increase albedo not decrease. More deserts could increase it, crops in place of forests would have an increase in albedo, clouds can definitely increase albedo if you get more of them. Just to name a few possibilities. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:56 PM Sure, all these things could* affect climate. But you’re just speculating. Where is the data showing they have changed albedo? David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 6:04 PM BTW, a paper published a few years ago on melting Arctic sea ice: “We find that the Arctic planetary albedo has decreased from 0.52 to 0.48 between 1979 and 2011, corresponding to an additional 6.4 0.9 W/m2 of solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region since 1979.” and “this albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that is 25% as large as that due to the change in CO2 during this period.” K. Pistone, I. Eisenman, and V. Ramanathan (2014). Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 111, 3322-3326. http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/papers/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2014.pdf Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 9:53 PM David Appell Maybe you noticed in the article you linked to that they also are using CERES data. It must be of some value if various Climate Scientists are using the data in their studies. YOUR POST: “Sure, all these things could affect climate. But youre just speculating. Where is the data showing they have changed albedo?” Now you are talking my language. That is the problem, where is the data showing global albedo values over time? Slight changes in the value can cause all the warming or cooling seen in temperature records alone so you would think it would be very well researched and data collected. I have read they try to establish a global albedo with Earthshine data but it has some flaws. Here is a link that talks about it. They use CERES (again) and show the trend has not changed from 2000 to 2005 which is what the global CERES mean graphs show. Not much change in Net Radiant energy striking the Earth’s surface. https://skepticalscience.com/The-albedo-effect.html David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:41 PM Norman, again, it’s not CERES that I object to, it’s using its data without knowing what you’re doing. The satellite is very complicated. Even the experts having trouble getting it right. The Pistone paper says “A detailed discussion of the sources of bias and uncertainty of both CERES and sea ice data may be found in Supporting Information.” Have you corrected for any biases in CERES data? Corrected for instrument drift? Is there any meaningful satellite drift? If you get your results published somewhere decent, I’d definitely take a look. But nothing is going to be resolved via blog comments, and frankly I have stuff of my own I’d rather work on that trying to become an expert in CERES data. Good luck. Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:22 PM David Appell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_energy_budget#/media/File:The-NASA-Earth%27s-Energy-Budget-Poster-Radiant-Energy-System-satellite-infrared-radiation-fluxes.jpg I am sure you are most familiar with the global energy budget images. Note if the radiant energy would remain the same you could still get a warming or cooling Earth based upon any potential change in the surface cooling mechanisms that are not radiative (evaporation and thermals). Changes in these can also lead to warming and cooling and either could be based on natural long term cycles scientist are only now discovering like PDO, ADO, etc. These long term cycles affect wind patterns and ocean heating patterns. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:17 AM Natural variations are from energy in the system moving around, not energy being created. AGW, on the other hand, means that the surface, lower atmo and oceans are gaining heat that would otherwise be radiated to space. Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 1:10 PM David Appell And yet CERES graphs do not show this energy (heat gain), they show NO increase in energy reaching the surface for 16 years (which is supported by the satellite temperature readings). The global Downwelling IR shows no increase in 16 years (all-sky), the one study that showed an increase in downwelling IR was conducted under Clear-sky conditions which the CERES graphs support. If the natural variations do not remove surface energy at the same rate as a previous rate (changes in wind patterns or ocean currents) the globe will warm with no net increase in radiant energy. Not sure you are following my logic on that point. If you have less evaporation going on globally so that rather than the surface losing 78 W/m^2 by this process, it only loses 76 W/m^2 you would have a warmer surface that could then warm the measured air above and show a global warming signal. You do realize that the surface has a Net positive radiant energy of about 107 W/m^2. If this was not removed by the other processes (evaporation or thermals) the surface would get much warmer and the air above would also increase considerably in temperature. Any change to the removal of energy from the surface can give you a global warming signal in the air temperature. The result would be a total energy the same but you would have warmer air near the surface and the air at higher elevations of the Troposphere would be cooler. You would have to monitor several air layers over time to see if this was taking place. As far as I know the only real significant consistent measurements are of the air a couple meters above the surface and some of ocean surface. If you know of other consistent measurements, please share, I want to update my understanding. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:30 PM Norman, when you refer to graphs and studies, I’d appreciate if you cited them. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:54 PM Norman, you mean your CERES graphs. I don’t accept them as definitive. I’ve already explained why. Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 9:32 PM David Appell Once again they are not my CERES graphs. I did not compile raw data and create the graphs based upon such data. The site itself does all the graphing. Have you gone to it? https://ceres-tool.larc.nasa.gov/ord-tool/jsp/EBAFSFCSelection.jsp Click “Visualize Data” It is set on Global Mean. The graphs are done by the CERES program not me. You have not explained “why” not at all. You said I was not qualified to make graphs on raw data since I did not know what I was doing. So I didn’t do this. Your explanation is not a very good one. Just go to the link and look. When you click the “Visualize Data” tab and it brings up a series of graphs for you does that mean that they are your” graphs? Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 9:37 PM David Appell Please take the time to read this article. The authors used CERES data as one of their sources to compile the Global Energy budget. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2634.1 David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:00 PM Norman, yet again, it’s not CERES that I doubt, it’s your ability to get useful information from the raw, unadjusted satellite data. Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 9:42 AM David Appell Maybe again you are completely wrong. I am NOT getting the raw, unadjusted satellite data. Why do you repeat this false statement over and over? The CERES tool itself is generating the graphs. One would hope the team in charge of the data does know what to do with the data before they create it in graphic form. Your idiotic behavior on this point is very strange and unworthy of anyone seeking the Truth. Unscientific illogical thought process goes with your false posts based on absolutely nothing. I still think you post them hoping you can sway anyone who might look at the CERES graphs with a false thought process and influence behavior. I really do not know why you perpetuate your falsehood on this topic. What does it benefit you? It makes you look very dishonest and deceptive. Is that the image you are trying to project on this blog? Ball4 says: January 7, 2017 at 10:48 AM Norman – You ARE using the raw data straight from CERES site without applying the recommended adjustments in the CERES team own publications. The CERES raw data has to be calibrated and some of their oldest data is as they point out (in extreme detail!) uncalibratable to surface observed conditions. Your task is to show that you have properly calibrated CERES raw data & complied with each of their cautionary notes to users. This is no small task to get your CI meaningful as they do. By the way, as a check, in your 9:37pm link: “There is a TOA imbalance of 6.4 W m−2 from CERES data and this is outside of the realm of current estimates of global imbalances (Willis et al. 2004; Hansen et al. 2005; Huang 2006).” Confirming your use of raw data is debatable. There has been additional work and new publications showing better calibrations based on ARGO surface thermometer data directly from the CERES team (see Loeb 2016). Also, you discuss global down welling measured by instrumentation looking up as if it is from CERES which is a TOA instrument looking down. You do not explain how your interpretation of down welling is meaningful within CI. Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 1:15 PM Ball4 I am not using any data. I do not know where the data comes from. I am hoping the CERES team does the proper calibrations on their own data before producing graphs of such data. I am not even looking at their raw data. I am clicking on their own resource “Visualize Data” which produces graphs. If the graphs they provide are not accurate or properly calibrated then it would be up to the CERES team to correct the data to allow visitors to their site to get valid graphs from them. Again on your final point: “Also, you discuss global down welling measured by instrumentation looking up as if it is from CERES which is a TOA instrument looking down. You do not explain how your interpretation of down welling is meaningful within CI.” I again am only going by what data the website provides. I am not making any assumptions on how it was obtained and am hoping the CERES team is doing a good job of getting the information correctly before they create graphs of it. I would like you to provide an answer as to why you think I am the one using “raw data” from CERES? What does my link to their webpage make you think that is what I am doing? Please explain, thanks. Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 1:27 PM Ball4 It appears someone has already done a study of the accuracy of the CERES calculated surface fluxes vs actual measured values. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/21/the-tao-calculated-surface-datasets/ Willis Eschenbach believes they have a achieved a relatively close match for calculated values. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JD008159/full This one also discusses problems with early algorithms and how they have improved. This article is from 2007 I would think that they would continue to improve their product over time to reflect as accurately as possible what is going on with energy fluxes. Even if some errors remain in the calculations it would not really matter as the graphs are time series and would all be using the same algorithms to calculate their values. Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 1:33 PM Ball4 From reading about the surface fluxes provided by the CERES site I can positively state you are incorrect when you say this is “raw data”. The surface fluxes are derived values from the raw satellite data. The surface fluxes are model calculated values that try to get the values as close as possible to empirically measured values on the ground. Really I have zero comprehension on what you or David Appell are claiming when you state I am using CERES “raw data” to build some graphs. Ball4 says: January 7, 2017 at 2:15 PM Norman – Quote your stuff directly from the CERES team, only then you will find the correct user cautions. You will have to do your own study to compute CI determine if your interpretations are meaningful. Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 3:20 PM Ball4 I do not think I would need to do my own study to calculate a confidence interval anymore than you would if you posted a global temperature graph or linked to one. It is up to the party generating the graphs to perform such tasks. They provide the graph and I take it as is. I read material concerning how they obtain the data for the graphs and it does seem rigorous with frequent corrections to make the data even better. So if I link you to a GISS global temperature graph you would require I go to their database, pull up all the data make my own graphs and somehow come up with a confidence interval to satisfy you? I think your demands are not very valid and I am not even sure what they are based upon. If The CERES graphs are invalid and are not reflecting reality then that would be a flaw in the team generating the graphs and not with me. They are the ones who should do correct adjustments on their data before they present it to the Public for consumption. I think you are off on the wrong tangent with your arguments and I still am not sure what valid reasoning they are based upon. Ball4 says: January 7, 2017 at 6:40 PM “It is up to the party generating the graphs to perform such tasks.” It is up to the authors interpreting the data such as you; the reader should not need, can not, will not assume those duties. “So if I link you to a GISS global temperature graph you would require..” Sure, if GISS issued the same cautions to data users as does CERES team and it was well known the GISS data was unbalanced by 6 W/m^2 when there is much more precise data to which balance calibration is available as I found for you researching your own posted link (to TFK09). “I think your demands are not very valid…” Then you haven’t bothered to research the CERES Team cautions to data downloaders, it only takes 20-30 minutes of study Norman but a lot of work thereafter. You as the author needs build credibility not me by doing the work; I am not offering an interpretation of the CERES Team data, you are. DA has made enough suggestions you are already on notice. The CERES data is not invalid, just not completely calibrated to a reasonable balance CI as they caution users. You are generating the graphs and then offering an interpretation which is unfounded shown simply by spending 20-30 minutes reading CERES literature easily found non-paywalled on the web. “I still am not sure what valid reasoning they are based upon.” Pointed out Loeb 2016 is a good starting point to find a ton of the CERES Team own valid reasoning. You do that reasonably well enough then maybe DA will be forced pay more attention to your interpretations. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:36 PM Sure Norman, perhaps you aren’t using raw data. But I still won’t trust you. I’m hardly going to spend my time piecing together the CERES claims you’ve made, or try to replicate all your calculations, or try to replicate your result. Want to begin to be taken seriously? Publish. Let some experts review your findings first. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 4:50 AM Ball4 says, January 7, 2017 at 10:48 AM: Norman You ARE using the raw data straight from CERES site without applying the recommended adjustments in the CERES team own publications. No, he’s not. He’s using officially published CERES EBAF Ed2.8 data. That’s not “raw data”. That is a finished product. Sorry, mate. There’s a very simple way for you to find out whether I’m right or wrong about this, Ball4. Just write Norman Loeb and ask him. I’m sure you’re capable of tracking down his email address. Ball4 says: January 8, 2017 at 8:53 AM Hi Kristian – I’ve read Dr. Loeb’s published paper(s), there is no need to contact him as his team writes clearly on the subject of cautioning CERES data users on their products. Once users follow all the cautions calibrating the satellite data to surface instruments, interpretations of results can be made meaningful within CIs. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 2:07 PM Ball4, I’ve also read them and cannot for the life of me find a quote where it says anything about the EBAF Ed2.8 product somehow not being a final dataset (“raw data” in situ validated, calibrated, corrected and adjusted before officially published), not to be used in climatic studies. And you have yet to provide such a quote, even after having been asked umpteen times. So yes, I fear it’s time for you to write Loeb himself to ask him what he’s actually saying about this matter, Ball4. So stop your incessant trolling on this. Put up or shut up! Ball4 says: January 8, 2017 at 3:24 PM And you have yet to provide such a quote.. Kristian I have. I am not the user of the CERES data, YOU are. The CERES team cautions are directed at the users not the readers. Nice try at getting me to do the work you need to do. Ive spent cocktail hour time, posted exact quotes, ref. cites, links, and clips pointing you in the right directions to fact find. I can just read the CERES Team work instead of you. Dont need your stuff, if you want to contribute, more work is needed by YOU not me. What you can do to show your data download is as you claim final calibration is replicate results in Table 4 in Loeb 2016: Trends in daytime and daytimenighttime LW TOA flux for January 2003December 2014 and over 30S30 for Terra and Aqua, including CIs. Absent that, no critical, informed reader can in any way justify you have meaningful results within CI extending CERES Team work from your CERES raw data downloads to date. Nice looking graphs though. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 4:25 PM Still no quote!? Still your unsupported assertions only … Write Loeb, Ball4. Ask him. Or do you want me to do it for you? Ball4 says: January 8, 2017 at 4:37 PM “Or do you want me to do it for you?” Do it for yourself Kristian, ask him professionally for the help you need to replicate his Team’s 2016 Table 4 including CIs. Then show him your extension (without CIs) to his Team’s work and ask if your results are in any way meaningful. Be sure to let us know what you hear back & show us your completed replication. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 4:43 PM I’ve (…) posted exact quotes (…) Hilarious. You have done no such thing. Never a single quote provided. Even when specifically asked. And that’s your problem. Because now you’re evidently forced to flat out lie about it. Well, you just keep digging. The CERES team cautions are directed at the users not the readers. Don’t worry. As you’ll notice, there are no specific cautions about the published All-Sky ToA OLR anomaly values. I am not the user of the CERES data, YOU are. Yes, and I know it’s good, highly precise, thus both usable and applicable. Loeb himself has confirmed that many times. He’s even used his own data (duh!) on multiple occasions, written several papers based on this particular data. So what is your problem with it? Why is this such a big deal to you? You’re clearly wrong about this. You have fundamentally misunderstood this entire issue, Ball4. You just need to live with it and move on. It’s not the end of the world. BTW, do you want me to ask Loeb – on your behalf – whether the EBAF Ed2.8 data as officially published on the CERES webpage is simply “raw data” as you claim? Like no processing steps whatsoever to get to level 3B? https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/order_data.php You are a clown, Ball4. Ball4 says: January 8, 2017 at 5:22 PM “do you want me to ask Loeb – on your behalf – whether the EBAF Ed2.8 data as officially published on the CERES webpage is simply “raw data” as you claim?” Yes professionally actually, it doesn’t include CIs so raw for instance. Let us know. Show him your nice graph of CERES data and OLR results with no CIs and ask if your work is meaningful. Be especially sure to point out Kristian’s use of the CERES data pre-Jan. 2003. “You have done no such thing. Never a single quote provided.” I found and quoted Loeb 2016 for Kristian last summer and apparently earlier. Extensive multithread discussions Kristian conveniently forgets but the internet remembers. Still to date no Table 4 replicated results with CI from Kristian, just pretzel twisting (Dr. Spencer term) from Kristian. This ought to be easy, almost trivial, for Kristian seeking to meaningfully extend CERES team work on OLR. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/08/observational-evidence-of-the-greenhouse-effect-at-desert-rock-nevada/#comment-221480 Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:28 PM David Appell Weather phenomena can create things like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_(Pacific_Ocean) It seems a persistent high stopped normal wind patterns that would have caused ocean water to mix leaving a warm blob in the Pacific. Ocean water mixing can have a significant effect on global temperatures. If warm ocean water remains on the surface and is not mixed by steady winds it can act to warm the atmosphere. Just letting you know many things can change global temperatures. Other possibilities are that the adjusted temperature charts are not accurate and may be biased by scientists believing by producing them they will save a future world (passion in their objectives). I think there are multiple possiblities to explain warming that do not involve CO2. Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:41 AM 100% Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:15 AM Norman, I’m very well aware that there are other influences on climate than aGHGs. The Blog and ENSOs and such are energy shifting around, not energy being created. You wrote: “I think there are multiple possiblities to explain warming that do not involve CO2.” Such as? Reply Norman says: January 6, 2017 at 12:59 PM David Appell Yes, true “warm blob” and ENSO do not create energy but they do impact the air temperature which is what is being measured. I know you trust the ocean temperature plots with a few buoys taking temperatures that vary by the hundredth of a degree, but I am skeptical of these measurements. But if the energy that would be going down into the deeper ocean (maybe changing its temperature a few hundredths of a degree) is released into the air, it can increase global air temperatures as long as such conditions persist and that is what is being measured, not total energy content of the entire system. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:53 PM Norman wrote: “I know you trust the ocean temperature plots with a few buoys taking temperatures that vary by the hundredth of a degree, but I am skeptical of these measurements.” Actually there are about 3000 ARGO buoys, and when I looked up information about the instruments they carry, the temperature measurements we accurate to 0.005 C, IIRC. Of course ocean heat can warm the air — see, especially ENSOs. Where do you think all the added heat to the ocean is coming from?? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File:Ocean_Heat_Content_(2012).png Just in the last 11.5 years, the top half (0-2000 m) of the ocean has gained heat at a rate of 330 trillion Watts. Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 11:53 PM No responce, Norman? ClimateChange4realz says: January 11, 2017 at 1:38 PM The heating is due to the warming of ocean currents such as the amo and pdo over the last 100 years or so. Just another natural cycle. Nothing new here, even David apells understanding of climate science . Moving on Norman says: January 5, 2017 at 10:38 PM David Appell Also the Southern Hemisphere receives more solar energy than the Northern (check up CERES to confirm what I am stating) Yet the Southern Hemisphere is cooler than the Northern. http://profhorn.aos.wisc.edu/wxwise/AckermanKnox/chap14/climate_spatial_scales.html Southern Hemisphere just about 2 C cooler than the Northern yet the difference in peak energy received by each hemisphere’s summer is 20 watt/m^2 more in the Southern Hemisphere summer vs Northern Hemisphere summer. This reality between hemispheres and radiation amounts shows that there is a lot more to temperature than radiant energy alone. The greater surface water in the Southern Hemisphere keeps the air temperature from getting as warm. It is 5 C difference between the summers yet the Southern Hemisphere is getting 20 more W/m^2 in its summer. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:11 AM Norman, the SH is warming slower than the NH because it has more ocean on it, which moderates temperature change. The NH is 61% ocean, while the SH is 81% ocean. 57% of total ocean surface area is in the SH. Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 1:02 AM Two storms will meet on the Gulf of Mexico. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/lgb7mvsw8x5k.png Reply Tim Wells says: January 6, 2017 at 2:26 AM The sun is about to hibernate. The thing to watch is the Atlantic ocean going into a negative cycle as it did in 2010 and brought a massively cold winter to the UK. Global warming is a scam, I found while working for a Carbon management company in 2006. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:46 AM Tim Wells…”The sun is about to hibernate. The thing to watch is the Atlantic ocean …” Who cares about the Atlantic, we have been freezing out here on the Pacific coast of Canada where record lows for December were just established. Environment Canada is talking about this entire winter setting records for cold. The record cold for December in Vancouver is now a week into January. Reply Tim Wells says: January 6, 2017 at 5:58 AM Whether the Pacific or the Atlantic, sea temperatures are going to show conclusively the world cooling. They are nothing more than large batteries storing energy, now the sun is cooling. These two large batteries are dropping in temperature. Being in Britain I am more concerned with the Atlantic, as it has kept us warm in winter the last 20 years, with the exception of 2010. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 11:07 AM The ocean will keep warming, as it has been doing for decades now. The Sun is a minor influence on climate change. Now it’s about the GHGs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File:Ocean_Heat_Content_(2012).png Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 11, 2017 at 1:41 PM David says: “The sun Is a minor influence in climate change” The sun controls climate change of all planets of our solar system and its energy makes up 99.8 % of the volume of our solar system. What do you think caused climate change before man was around? ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:30 AM The solar wind accelerated because the wind in the upper atmosphere also accelerate. http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/latest2day.imagemap?312,111 https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/01/06/0300Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-84.31,58.11,452 Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:32 AM Sorry. The solar wind accelerated, so the wind in the upper atmosphere also accelerate. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:29 PM Says what? What does this have to do with climate change? Reply Hans Dampf says: January 6, 2017 at 3:36 AM Are the old temperatures the real or the manipulated? I think you know they changed old temperatures…and call it adjustment or something… Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 4:43 AM Hans Dampf…”Are the old temperatures the real or the manipulated?” NOAA has recently adjusted the recent historical record in an attempt to remove the 15 year warming hiatus from 1998 – 2012 reported by the IPCC. Phil Jones of CRU bragged in the Climategate emails that he used Michael Mann’s hide-the-decline trick on temperatures. He refused to release his data for independent audit. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 1:45 PM Smear and lies by Gordon Robertson. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 2:28 PM Jan…”Smear and lies by Gordon Robertson”. there’s none so blind as those who will not see https://web.archive.org/web/20130201082455/http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/weather_stations.html Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:44 PM There is nothing under the link that proves your smear and lies from your previous comment valid claims. fonzarelli says: January 6, 2017 at 3:40 PM Jan, i’ve got news for you… Gordon is more left leaning than you will ever hope to be. Folks, if you’ve ever wanted to see what a “curcular firing squad” looks like, this is it… (gordon, sorry about that; no real intent to disparage, but haven’t we all had enough of the shallow argumentation of jan p. ?) David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 9:58 PM Jan provides plenty of substantial comments. I don’t think think I’ve ever seen one from you. Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 12:13 PM Jan has only offered misdirection and rationalization. Fonzie has his eyes wide open, while yours are shut tight. Hard to see anything with your eyes closed. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:28 PM Jan has responded with far, far more science than you ever have, Bart. (That’s easy, since your responses contain zero science and rely on insults and name calling.) He’s a welcome contributor to this blog. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:13 PM Hans: The raw temperatures are adjusted to remove biases. How would you prefer to handle those biases? Reply Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 4:51 PM And, when did you stop beating your wife? Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:42 PM No scientific reply, AGAIN. A batting average of 0.000 Reply bernard says: January 6, 2017 at 4:52 AM http://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html Reply WizGeek says: January 6, 2017 at 8:47 AM To account for cyclic components, use a polynomial trend line rather than a linear trend line. Reply Phyte_On says: January 6, 2017 at 8:53 AM According to the surface thermometers was is the rate of warming from end of 1998 thru 2016? How much has it warmed in this 18 year period according to the surface thermometers? Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 11:01 AM As for the speculative predictions by some here that we will see “global cooling” because of a “cooling sun”. According to the SORCE reconstruction of the TSI (http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/files/2011/09/TIM_TSI_Reconstruction.png) TSI averaged over recent solar cycles has been about 1.2 W/m^2 above the TSI during the Maunder minimum. This translates to a solar radiative forcing of about 0.21 W/m^2 (1.2/40.7) between recent TSI and Maunder minimum. With a carbon dioxide increase of about 2 ppm a year in the atmosphere, it takes only eight years of CO2 increase to exert about the same magnitude of radiative forcing: 5.35ln(416.0/400.0)=0.21 W/m^2. Thus, based on a comparison of the radiative forcings, if the sun indeed goes into a Maunder minimum like state, the effect on global temperature variability will very likely be relatively small. It will have only a small counteracting effect, if CO2 (and other greenhouse gases such as methane) continues to increase in the atmosphere. The effect on global temperatures of a continuing CO2 increase at similar rates as today over multiple decades will strongly overwhelm any counteracting effect of a decrease in solar activity. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 11:03 AM Oh, this was supposed to go at the end of the thread, not as reply to “Phyte_On”. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 1:42 PM Jan…”With a carbon dioxide increase of about 2 ppm a year in the atmosphere, it takes only eight years of CO2 increase to exert about the same magnitude of radiative forcing:” Forcings apply only to the differential equations in climate models. There is no real proof of CO2 doing anything to create warming. In fact the 18 year warming hiatus proves the opposite to what you claim. If you are going to talk science, please stop passing off unvalidated models as being scientific. None of their ‘projections’ can be verified by the scientific method hence they cannot be validated. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 1:51 PM Every sentence by you is utter rubbish. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 2:23 PM Jan…”Every sentence by you is utter rubbish”. That would be understandable considering you are a layman. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:46 PM Now you are babbling. Bart says: January 6, 2017 at 4:56 PM Ze is defintely not a layperson. But, ze has made a logical leap that is left unacknowledged. The mechanisms by which the CO2 and solar input heat the Earth are quite different. Different spectra entirely. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 7, 2017 at 7:39 PM It is correct that different physical processes occur through which the different forcing driving climate variability. However, there are also feedbacks in play that are the same, which amplify a relatively small forcing, such as the water vapor feedback in the long-wave range and the ice-albedo feedback in the short-wave range. And the evidence known to me does not support the claim that the climate sensitivity to solar forcing and the one to forcing by greenhouse gases differ much. Perhaps you know evidence for such a claim, which I don’t know? Gordon Robertson says: January 7, 2017 at 8:37 PM Jan …”there are also feedbacks in play that are the same, which amplify a relatively small forcing…” I don’t care how many degrees you have, if you think a feedback is an amplifier you’re a layman. The notion that a feedback can act as an amplifier is strictly pseudo-science. Positive feedback can be used as part of an amplifier to enhance the input while causing an exponential gain in the output. However, positive feedback is part of the system, not the amplifying agent. If you want first hand evidence, set up a PA system with a microphone and adjust the amplifier level till you the typical feedback squeal. When it begins, turn off the amplifier and the feedback is terminated hence the squeal. There are no true positive feedbacks in the atmosphere since there is no gain mechanism. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 9:20 AM For instance, an increase in solar irradiation will increase temperature at Earth surface, leading to decreased sea ice in the Arctic, reducing Earth’s albedo, leading to a larger value of solar radiation that is absorbed at the surface. The gain in solar radiation at the surface is larger than it would be, if the positive ice-albedo feedback wasn’t present. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:10 PM “And the evidence known to me does not support the claim that the climate sensitivity to solar forcing and the one to forcing by greenhouse gases differ much.” Shortwave solar radiation penetrates deep into the oceans to cause long term heating. Longwave radiation from CO2 back-radiation does not. It is rather unnerving that a person in your position is unaware of this. ClimateChange4realz says: January 11, 2017 at 1:46 PM Bart, everyone with brains knows that more co2 leads more trapped heat thus leading to a warmer planet. The only problem is while co2 makes up 20% of the total ghg affect at most mans contribution makes up less then 3%. Here let a real physicist spell it out for you: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sGZqWMEpyUM Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 2:58 PM What makes you think I was unaware of this? I never said anything to the contrary of the physical fact that solar radiation penetrated relatively deep into the oceans and longwave radiation did not, nor did I say anything that would imply what you claim. It is annoying that you make up assertions about me to smear me, when you don’t know to answer anything with substance. This is a despicable tactic. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 4:07 PM “And the evidence known to me does not support the claim that the climate sensitivity to solar forcing and the one to forcing by greenhouse gases differ much. If you believe you were misunderstood, then perhaps you should strive to make your statements clearer. It looks very much like you are merely making an appeal to outrage. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 4:31 PM Let’s backtrack, shall we? You asserted that “With a carbon dioxide increase of about 2 ppm a year in the atmosphere, it takes only eight years of CO2 increase to exert about the same magnitude of radiative forcing: 5.35ln(416.0/400.0)=0.21 W/m^2.” I essentially countered with the observation that W/m^2 does not tell the whole story, that these two forcings do not operate on the same footing, and there is no reason to presume that their effects are equivalent. You have now countered with, essentially, “I know that! Why wouldn’t I know that? I’m well aware of that!” If it is your claim now that high energy, deep ocean heating does not cause any significantly different response than low energy surface heating, then I’m afraid we are going to have to agree to disagree. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 4:38 PM And again just misrepresentation of what I said and again deflection. You obviously are not capable to address the actual statements of your opponent. Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 5:40 PM Could you quit dodging then, and explain what you mean in your own words? David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:38 PM “There is no real proof of CO2 doing anything to create warming.” Wrong. Radiative forcing measured at Earths surface corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect, R. Philipona et al, Geo Res Letters, v31 L03202 (2004) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003GL018765/abstract “Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO2 from 2000 to 2010,” D. R. Feldman et al, Nature 519, 339343 (19 March 2015) http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v519/n7543/full/nature14240.html Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:12 PM Phyte: Using NOAA data, the surface warming from 1/1999 to 11/2016 is (+0.35 +/- 0.06) deg C. Reply Phyte_On says: January 6, 2017 at 12:18 PM Thank you. When will 12/2016 come out? Do you have a site/link where I can check this each month similar to Dr. Spencer’s site. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:38 PM I heard a rumor that NOAA is going to announce the December number on Jan 18th, but a NOAA PIO tells me they haven’t picked a final date yet. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 1:37 PM DA…”Phyte: Using NOAA data, the surface warming from 1/1999 to 11/2016 is (+0.35 +/- 0.06) deg C.” Did you tell Phyte that NOAA corrupted the historical record to get that trend, a trend the IPCC did not see from 1998 – 2012 after they peer reviewed it in their 2012 review? UAH did not see it wither. The IPCC declared that era a ‘warming hiatus’ and NOAA are currently under investigation by a US Senate committee for essentially scientific misconduct. In case Phyte wonders how NOAA did it, they slashed 1500 weather stations from a global pool of 6500 then applied real data from 1500 stations to a climate model to SYNTHESIZE the 5000 they removed. Guess what, they found record warming. I hope the new administration in the US shuts these charlatans down. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 1:58 PM Gordon, for the Nth time, better data came in after the 5AR was published. It shows no hiatus. Is that really so diffiult to understand The Ksrl et al changes were in SSTs. An independent study published Wednesday verified the changes: “Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records,” Zeke Hausfather et al, Science Advances 04 Jan 2017: Vol. 3, no. 1, e1601207, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601207 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601207 Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 2:15 PM DA…”Gordon, for the Nth time, better data came in after the 5AR was published. It shows no hiatus. Is that really so diffiult to understand” It is from you and your propaganda troll machine, especially when you cannot supply proof of the ‘better data’. What better data can you get? The IPCC uses 2500 reviewers to find what researchers are saying via peer review, then NOAA comes along after the fact, slashes 5000 surface stations from a global pool of 6500 stations, subjects data from 1500 stations to a climate model, SYNTHESIZES the missing 5000, then claims…”Oh, oh…the IPCC was wrong”. Come on man, get real. Do you think everyone is so stupid they can’t see through your carefully manipulated propaganda. You put Josef Geobbels to shame. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:36 PM Gordon, your reply and its insinuations are so putrid you don’t deserve a meaningful reply. Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 2:21 PM Phyte_on…”How much has it warmed in this 18 year period according to the surface thermometers?” According to the IPCC there was a warming hiatus from 1998 – 2012. page 6: “Despite the robust multi-decadal timescale warming, there exists substantial multi-annual variability in the rate of warming with several periods exhibiting almost no linear trend including the warming hiatus since 1998. The rate of warming over 19982012 (0.05C [0.05 to +0.15] per decade)…” http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter02.pdf Please note the IPCC has a very strange practice of allowing 50 lead authors in the Summary for Policymakers to sanitize the Final Draft listed above to make it more palatable for politicians. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 10:59 AM RSS found 2016 to be the warmest year by 0.17 C. 1998 second, 2010 third. http://images.remss.com/papers/rsstech/Jan_5_2017_news_release.pdf Reply Phyte_On says: January 6, 2017 at 12:30 PM See my earlier question. Can you provide me a link to a site where I can look at the monthly surface temperature data in a similar fashion as the UAH satellite data. I would like to follow the surface temps vs. satellite data on an on-going basis. I’m not a scientist just real curious – no agenda. I like the straight forward presentation of Dr. Spencer/UAH monthly data – very easy to follow. Looking for something similar for surface thermometer data. Thank you. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:49 PM Phyte, this site is (mostly) being real picky for me today about posting links, so I’ll only post this RealClimate list of data sources for climate data: http://realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/ Scroll down to “Climate data (processed)” Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 1:20 PM DA…”Phyte, this site is (mostly) being real picky for me today about posting links, so Ill only post this RealClimate list of data sources for climate data:” Phyte…a word of warning. realclimate is an uber-alarmist site run by the head of NASA GISS and his buddy Michael Mann of Climategate fame. If you are wondering why the head of GISS is dabbling in climate propaganda that’s the same question asked by Donald Trump and why he is considering shutting it down. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 1:48 PM Gordon, you should ashamed of yourself, smearing others while providing no evidence whatsoever of what you claim. Pathetic. The RC page I linked to is a LIST OF LINKS. Why don’t you go click on them and download some data for a change. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:03 PM Gavin Schmidt started running realclimate.org together with others when he hadn’t been “head of GISS” yet. ” thats the same question asked by Donald Trump and why he is considering shutting it down.” Now that would be something, if the Trump administration engaged in active censorship against a website run by scientists, or generally in active censorship against the Web. Even though I think it’s possible that it will get really ugly with Trump as president, I haven’t heard anything about that Trump was “considering” such a thing. Please provide the source for your assertion. Or is this just your wet dream that the Trump government is going to move with authoritarian means against science and scientists who say inconvenient things? David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:34 PM Jan: I totally agree about censorship under Trump, but RealClimate is a private site, not a government site. Science Communication Network pays for the domain and site, and scientists volunteer to write there. See http://realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/about/ Jan P Perlwitz says: January 7, 2017 at 6:10 PM David, Yes, I know that. This is why such censorship of a private site run by scientists would be extraordinary. It would be a clear sign that the Trump administration was trying to transform the United States into an authoritarian regime. But I would like to see the source for Gordon’s claim that Trump was “considering” to shut down the site. I very much suspect that this is a figment of Gordon’s imagination. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:18 PM Jan, I’d like to see Gordon’s source too. I highly suspect he doesn’t have one. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:56 PM These aren’t on the RealClimate list, but both NOAA and Hadley have global SSTs: HadSST3 http://www.metoffice.gov[DOT]uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_monthly_globe_ts.txt Replace [DOT] with “.” — I’m trying to fake out this blog, which isn’t letting me post many links. NOAA in next comment. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 1:02 PM Phyte, as sometimes happens here, I’m just not allowed to post anything that contains something other than words…. will try again later. (Frustrating.) Reply Phyte_On says: January 6, 2017 at 2:20 PM Thank you. I will try to find the links. I tried google but got frustrated. Again, no agenda. Just really frustrated that I can’t get a straightforward set of graphs on Surface Temperature measurements by month like I get here. Also, I get super frustrated that I have to weed through the bias on all sides of this issue. I just want to look at the data for myself and come to my own conclusion. I’m very agnostic on this subject. But super curious. Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 2:35 PM You can find many graphs at the NASA GISS website: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Further down are also the tables with the monthly data. And a link to the programs with which the GISTEMP analysis is done. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 4:42 PM Phyte, if you want you can email me and I’ll send you my spreadsheet of links to the data I keep track of. My email address is on my Web site, http://www.davidappell.com gallopingcamel says: January 6, 2017 at 11:49 PM You act as if there is some kind of “Consensus”. Another of your false ideas: https://wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/klimamodelleabweichungenjan2016bisjunil2016-e1469356263447.jpg This image is from a blog that uses UAH publications to make its case: http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.QregI042.dpbs Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 7, 2017 at 3:01 AM Here’s a genuine scientific source confirming the existence of a consensus. But without the scare quotes: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002 David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 11:24 AM gallopingcamel says: January 6, 2017 at 11:49 PM “You act as if there is some kind of Consensus. Another of your false ideas: https://wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/klimamodelleabweichungenjan2016bisjunil2016-e1469356263447.jpg” Whenever you see a graph that claims it’s about climate but has endpoints that are specific months and years, your BS detector should go off, because it’s cherry picking. Conclusions about climate don’t depend on specific months, or even specific years. They depend on decades, preferably three or more. (says the WMO) Besides, extrapolating 15 years of data to a per century rate is unscientific and meaningless. It would only be justified if the century was going to like the 15 years. That is simply not the case with climate, with GHG concentrations increasing all the time and feedbacks present. David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 12:35 PM But… RSS’s number is for the TTT — For the LT, they found 2016 to be warmer than 1998 by the same 0.02 C. I don’t know what their margins of error are. Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 1:28 PM DA…”RSS found 2016 to be the warmest year by 0.17 C…1998 second, 2010 third”. They did that by down-grading 1998 temperatures retroactively. RSS cannot be trusted. The company was formed to prove UAH wrong and they ended up proving them right. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 6, 2017 at 1:46 PM More smear and lies. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 1:46 PM Gordon, you’re another one who dismisses all data you don’t like by insinuating corruption. Never any evidence presented though, huh? Are you aware that UAH lowered their trend when going from v5.6 to v6.0? And that some of their changes were huge? And about three times larger than Karl et al? That they then agreed with RSS (at least for the LT)? A UAH global number changed by 0.30 C A UAH NoPol land number changes by -1.41 C. Another by +1.22 C. More here: http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2015/04/some-big-adjustments-to-uahs-dataset.html Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 7, 2017 at 3:03 AM Ah, unsupported smear tactics. Never seen THAT before. Google “BEST study” if you want to find out what happens when anyone honestly seeks to replicate work on AW. RSS is currently reinforcing the record for 2016, by the way. So it is, indeed, proving it right, just not the way you want to believe. Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 1:51 PM Frost reaches the Gulf of Mexico. http://files.tinypic.pl/i/00856/f73gon04pd08.png Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 1:53 PM How will this affect climate? Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:22 PM You still got other questions? Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:17 PM How will this affect climate? Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:32 PM This is not the climate. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/y8d0a92ml1x0.png Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 2:43 PM It is the only air circulation. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/yp5p5ohq0lou.gif http://oi64.tinypic.com/29egbva.jpg Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 3:34 PM Please see the temperature jumps in the stratosphere, which broke the polar vortex. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/10mb9065.png Reply ren says: January 6, 2017 at 3:41 PM Another wave visible in the stratosphere within the polar vortex action. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_JFM_NH_2017.png Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 4:44 PM So why post about current air circulation, when this blog post is about climate? Reply Lewis says: January 6, 2017 at 6:09 PM David, I believe Dr. Spencer is in charge of this site. He seems to allow quite a variety of comments with certain exceptions: see recently ‘Sod’. I’ve never seen ren be rude, certainly not as rude as you or I and his links are usually something someone who visits this site might find interesting, certainly I do. Why you object is beyond me. You, who go on and on and on and on and on with your proselytizing. Lewis Reply gallopingcamel says: January 6, 2017 at 11:45 PM Lewis you are dealing with a zealot. Rational debate is not possible with such people. Their yapping is harmless. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 6:56 PM GC always resorts to personal insults when he has no science. This won’t be the end of it, either. ren says: January 6, 2017 at 11:53 PM Circulation anomalies that may be present for many years, as a low solar activity, are science of climate or not? http://pamola.um.maine.edu/fcst_frames/GFS-025deg/DailySummary/GFS-025deg_WORLD-CED_T2_anom.png Reply ren says: January 7, 2017 at 12:12 AM Is such anomalies in the winter are important to people? http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00856/uahe2xxu59qw.gif http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/dmykpee9w39v.gif Reply ren says: January 7, 2017 at 1:37 AM David Appell You do not too much concentrate on measuring devices? Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 6:55 PM No idea what that’s supposed to mean. jean-luc says: January 6, 2017 at 4:46 PM R. spencer says : “Strong December Cooling Leads to 2016 Being Statistically Indistinguishable from 1998” completely false if you release december you obtain 0,52 for 2016 year mean i don’t understand why you say that ? the only truth is 2016 have the highest temperature higher or equal to 1998 with UAH data (satellite) but the difference between 1998 and 2016 is the year before (1997 vs 2015) 1997 : 0,0 vs 2015 : 0,25 and after 1999 : 0,0 the trend is warming not cooling. december 2016 beat many recent year …. the fourth rank compare to complete year Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 9:11 PM jean-luc…”i dont understand why you say that ? ” If you lived where I do on the Pacific coast of Canada, you’d know why first hand. We just experienced the coldest December on record. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 5:01 PM Salem, Oregon, Pacific Northwest: December 2016 the coldest December since….2013. Reply jean-luc says: January 7, 2017 at 10:18 PM the coldest December on record you said G. Robertson…. Maybe you can cherry pick special fruit like other climato skeptic :)….on pacific coast ! We talk about climat , not about weather ! When (like R. Spencer) a person mix the two subject (climat and weather) we become skeptic about his knowledge of climat change ! he make wrong interpretation Bravo David Appell, good answer Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 6, 2017 at 5:18 PM I see certain people are blaming this cooling on La Nia. Funny because no other La Nia since sattelite records began has dropped as quick as June and July of last year. More warmist drival nonsense. Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 5:30 PM Even the UAH press release says “2016 Edges 1998 as Warmest Year on Record.” http://www.newswise.com/articles/2016-edges-1998-as-warmest-year-on-record It says, “Globally, 2016 edged out 1998 by +0.02 C to become the warmest year in the 38-year satellite temperature record, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Because the margin of error is about 0.10 C, this would technically be a statistical tie, with a higher probability that 2016 was warmer than 1998.” So why is this blog in disagreement with the press release? Reply Gordon Robertson says: January 6, 2017 at 9:08 PM DA…”It says, Globally, 2016 edged out 1998 by +0.02 C…So why is this blog in disagreement with the press release?” +0.02C is 2/100ths of a degree C. You can’t even begin to see that on a room mercury thermometer and even on a more expensive digital thermometer the error range would likely allow for that as an error. Roy claimed the 0.02C is insignificant and it is. Why are you trying to make an issue of it? Is it because you were braying for so long about 2016 being a record warming year? The point is that 2016 had a 0.25C head start over 1998 and is technically not nearly as warm. There was an unexpected surge in the global average around 2001 of about 0.025C that has not been explained. Without that surge, which was likely produced by natural causes, 2016 is a lot colder than 1998. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 12:01 AM Gordon: I find many of your comments to be extremely odious, and I’m not interested in replying to anymore of your questions or claims. Reply Lewis says: January 7, 2017 at 4:16 PM David: Odious? Really? Your schizo self loose today? Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 6, 2017 at 5:35 PM Lol. I do not see where it says one era on this page as in the one we are commenting on. Go get your eyes checked Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 6, 2017 at 5:37 PM He said it would have to be 0.1 degree C warmer count as significant dimwit! Reply David Appell says: January 6, 2017 at 9:55 PM The press release says something different. Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 6, 2017 at 5:40 PM The error in the comment section was by 0.01C not 0.1C are you blind? Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 7, 2017 at 2:50 AM Finally got some snow here in the Alps. However: “In the Swiss Alps, the last time so little snow fell over the Christmas period was in 1864, according to measurements taken by the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research … The last three years have been a “row of Decembers without snow”, says Mr Marty. While it may be too early to confirm a pattern, even the possibility that snow will not fall until after the festive season is a concern.” http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38516688?post_id=10207120808963323_10211963704352681#_=_gg Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 7, 2017 at 2:59 AM RSS have confirmed that 2016 Tropospheric Temperatures break the 1998 record by 0.31 “degrees Fahrenheit” – whatever the hell they are. Looks like about 0.2C. http://www.remss.com/node/5203 Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 7, 2017 at 10:37 AM Even if it was that much warmer. So what? History shows us again and again that before every grand solar minimum there is a record breaking spike in global temperatures. This one being with the combined affects of elnino and the peak of the past solar cycle which correlated a lag of one year thus peaking in February of 2016. The combined affects of the peak of the previous 11 year solar cycle and the strong El Nio is what caused that record breaking spike not man. There is your answer! Reply Egor the One says: January 7, 2017 at 3:01 AM CAGW = BS ……the only relative equation ! Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 7, 2017 at 10:38 AM You got that right! Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 7:16 PM What does “catastrophic” mean? It isn’t a scientific term. Reply ClimateChange4realz says: January 8, 2017 at 9:54 AM Lmao. Did you really just ask that? Reply ren says: January 7, 2017 at 4:57 AM The range of Arctic air in North America. http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00856/icfp02kwmi1x.gif And in Europe. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/42nhgwn3d2m5.gif Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:54 PM What about in Madagascar, ren? Reply ren says: January 7, 2017 at 5:03 AM Modeled ice thickness and volume The plots show maps with sea ice thickness, and seasonal cycles of the calculated total arctic sea ice volume. The mean sea ice volume and standard deviation for the period 2004-2013 are shown with gray. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20170106.png Reply ren says: January 7, 2017 at 5:23 AM The forecast ozone indicates that Arctic air will flow now to the eastern US. http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00856/ra43lxc456q6.png Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:58 PM That will be a first. /sarc Reply Mark G says: January 7, 2017 at 7:59 AM Comparing this length in time is like saying the the living room is 1 degree cooler .005 seconds ago. It’s not a question on if we are changing our planet. It is how much. Do we argue about traffic controls at a intersection because there have be multiple accidents there? Or do we wait until someone dies before doing something. Money and business are driving this ridiculous notion we are not changing our world. Nothing bad comes from cleaning our act up now. Reply Elliott Bignell says: January 7, 2017 at 8:34 AM Quite. Reply Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 11:59 AM Actually, money and business are driving the ridiculous notion that we are significantly changing our world, and for the worse. There’s lots of money to be made in panic mongering, and AGW is a trillion (with a T) dollar industry worldwide. We don’t need to “clean up our act” vis a vis CO2 because CO2 isn’t dirty. It is a vital compound for life to exist on this planet. If anything, we need more of it, not less. A lot of bad comes from misdirecting resources from fighting actual pollution into this silly crusade against innocent, little CO2. Solar and wind power will never, ever be major contributors to our energy supply, yet we are spending gazillions on poisoning groundwater with silicon tetrachloride, and shredding rare raptors and insect controlling bats while mining heavy metals for wind turbines. Biofuels require more net energy input than they produce, which means MORE, not LESS CO2, even if that were a useful thing to do – burning food for fuel was never very bright. Our environment is cleaner, our forests broader, our air more transparent now than it has been at any time in my life, and I have been around for a fairly significant time, I can tell you. Do not let the panic merchants bamboozle you. There is not there, there. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:57 PM Bart says: “Solar and wind power will never, ever be major contributors to our energy supply” “World Energy Hits a Turning Point: Solar That’s Cheaper Than Wind: Emerging markets are leapfrogging the developed world thanks to cheap panels.” Bloomberg News, 12/14/16 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/world-energy-hits-a-turning-point-solar-that-s-cheaper-than-wind Reply Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:03 PM Then, why does it need subsidies? Reply Ed Millerski says: January 9, 2017 at 9:44 AM I suppose for the same reasons oil and gas required and continue to receive federal subsidies – particularly in the form of tax breaks. Bart says: January 9, 2017 at 12:17 PM Tax “breaks” that are available to every industry, Solar and Wind included. This is propaganda. David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:53 PM Fossil fuels get $5 T/yr subsidies around the globe…. $300-500 B/yr in the USA alone. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 1:18 PM Bart says: “We dont need to clean up our act vis a vis CO2 because CO2 isnt dirty. It is a vital compound for life to exist on this planet. If anything, we need more of it, not less.” IF CO2 is so good for life, why is there no life on Venus, where the atmosphere is 96% carbon dioxide? Reply Bart says: January 7, 2017 at 2:24 PM Good one, Dave. Couldn’t stop laughing. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:54 PM Yet again you have no answer. I’ll add this one to the tally. Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 7, 2017 at 7:48 PM “We dont need to clean up our act vis a vis CO2 because CO2 isnt dirty. It is a vital compound for life to exist on this planet. If anything, we need more of it, not less. And potassium in the human body is a “vital compound” for the life of a person. Why don’t you consider applying the same “logic” to the potassium level in your body? Reply Bart says: January 8, 2017 at 1:03 PM Well, potassium is necessary for hormone secretion and action vascular tone systemic blood pressure control gastrointestinal motility acidbase homeostasis glucose and insulin metabolism mineralocorticoid action renal concentrating ability fluid and electrolyte balance It would be bad to have too little of it as well. Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 2:54 PM David Appell If you are still visiting this thread I would like to respond to a question you posted somewhat above. YOUR POST: “Actually there are about 3000 ARGO buoys, and when I looked up information about the instruments they carry, the temperature measurements we accurate to 0.005 C, IIRC. Of course ocean heat can warm the air see, especially ENSOs. Where do you think all the added heat to the ocean is coming from?? Just in the last 11.5 years, the top half (0-2000 m) of the ocean has gained heat at a rate of 330 trillion Watts” You have a double question mark around your question. It does not have to be added heat. It works just as well to accumulate energy if you reduce one of the primary cooling processes. If the radiant energy remains the same but you reduce a cooling mechanism energy will accumulate. Here is my reply. Please note that I am not making a claim that what I propose it what is actually happening. It is a demonstration only of how complex climate science and heat balance can be. http://www.madsci.org/posts/archives/2006-05/1148725781.Es.r.html Start here. This email gives some data on how much ocean water is evaporated a year. The source is In Koo Kim, Physical Atmospheric Chemistry. The number 425,000 cubic kilometers of ocean water are evaporated a year. I will post in a series since I do not know how many links one post will support. Hope this works for you to follow, if you wish to. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 8:25 PM “The number 425,000 cubic kilometers of ocean water are evaporated a year.” Says who? Where does this water end up? Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:47 PM Norman, where does this water end up? Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 11:32 PM Norman says: “It does not have to be added heat. It works just as well to accumulate energy if you reduce one of the primary cooling processes.” So what cooling processes are giving up 330 terawatts for all of the last 11.5 years? Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:55 PM Norman? You there? Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 3:00 PM David Appell The heat of vaporization of water (how much energy is needed to vaporize 1 kg of water) is given as 2257 KJ/kg. http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/evaporation-water-surface-d_690.html 1 cubic kilometer of water has a mass of 10^12 kg. So some basic math: 425,000 km^3 x 10^12 kg = 4.25×10^17 kg evaporated a year by oceans. 4.25×10^17 kg x 2257 kJ/kg = 9.59×10^20 KJ or 9.59×10^23 Joules. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 3:28 PM What is this 425,000 km3? The volume of the ocean is 1.3 Gkm3. Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 4:33 PM David Appell It was in the first series of posts I have on this topic. “The number 425,000 cubic kilometers of ocean water are evaporated a year.” The source of that information is in the first post of the series. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:50 PM What posts? Sorry, I’m not going to go hunting for all your previous posts. Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 11:59 PM David Appell Here is the link for the 425,000 km^3 http://www.madsci.org/posts/archives/2006-05/1148725781.Es.r.html David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:47 PM Norman, I’m just not interested in trying to parse together several dozen of your comments to try to understand where all the numbers come from. Or guess where those links got their numbers from. Or what you argument is. At this point I have no idea. Write a paper. I’m just not paying attention to you here anymore. David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 9:38 PM Norman says: “The source of that information is in the first post of the series.” And what post was that? As I wrote before, these questions can’t be deal with via blog comments. At least get your own blog. Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 3:12 PM David Appell “The linear trends (with 95% confidence intervals) of OHC700 are 0.40 1022 0.05 J yr−1 for 19692008 ” From this article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL037155/full If you take this value and divide it by the total energy removed from oceans by evaporation you get: (0.4×10^22 joules/year) /( 9.59×10^23 joules/year) = 0.00417 Now take this number by the annual amount of water evaporated by oceans a year. 425,000 km^3 x 0.00417 = So it just 1772 less km^3 per year evaporated (so instead of 425,000 it was currently reduced to 423,228 km^3 per year) you would get the amount of warming in the oceans that you describe with no change in energy input. AGW is not needed to explain ocean heating as other things can produce the same results. Evaporation of oceans is very complex. It is not just based upon a slighlty warmer surface temperature. Relative humidity and wind play very powerful roles to rate of evaporation. Like I said I am not making the claim that there is less ocean evaporation. I am only pointing out other mechanisms can produce the warming that scientists are finding and they do not have to be caused by an increase in radiant energy to the system. Does all this make sense to you? Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 3:21 PM Norman, where do you think water that is evaporated ends up going? Reply Norman says: January 7, 2017 at 3:24 PM David Appell It would be the atmosphere and then after condensation it falls back down as rain. Not sure what your point is with that question. You specifically asked about another source of energy accumulation in the ocean and I provided one possible answer. Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:51 PM And then where does the rain end up? Reply David Appell says: January 7, 2017 at 4:52 PM Norman says: “You specifically asked about another source of energy accumulation in the ocean and I provided one possible answer.” Where does the energy for evaporation comes from? You don’t honestly think your calculation means energy is being created, right? Reply Norman says: January 8, 2017 at 12:03 AM David Appell YOU: “You dont honestly think your calculation means energy is being created, right?” No I would not think that my calculation would mean such a thing. The oceans are receiving a flux of incoming solar energy. If the rate of evaporation changes less incoming energy can leave the ocean system and you will end up with more energy contained in the oceans relative to a state with higher evaporation rates. Energy is not created but energy can accumulate if one process of energy loss is changed. Kristian says: January 8, 2017 at 4:42 AM Norman says, January 7, 2017 at 3:12 PM: So it just 1772 less km^3 per year evaporated (so instead of 425,000 it was currently reduced to 423,228 km^3 per year) you would get the amount of warming in the oceans that you describe with no change in energy input. AGW is not needed to explain ocean heating as other things can produce the same results. Evaporation of oceans is very complex. It is not just based upon a slighlty warmer surface temperature. Relative humidity and wind play very powerful roles to rate of evaporation. Like I said I am not making the claim that there is less ocean evaporation. I am only pointing out other mechanisms can produce the warming that scientists are finding and they do not have to be caused by an increase in radiant energy to the system. This is of course a pretty relevant observation you’ve got here, Norman. There’s only one (?) problem with it. It can explain the increase in OHC and SSTs, but it cannot at the same time account for the rising tropospheric temps. When less heat is transferred via evaporation from the surface to the troposphere above, this would, on balance (even as, as you point out, the various interactions going on in the climate system regarding evaporation>condensation are quite complex and hardly linear), lead to a net cooling of the troposphere: https://okulaer.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/rain-vs-heating.png That’s not what we’ve observed since 1979. And so there is really just one process that can explain it all, rising OHC, rising SST, and rising TLT, all at the same time: an increase in the heat INPUT to the Earth system, from the Sun. Which is exactly what the radiation flux data from the ToA is telling us (ERBS+CERES, ISCCP FD): A substantial inrease in the mean level of ASR (TSI minus refl SW (albedo)) from the 80s to the late 90s, created a rather large positive imbalance at the ToA, a gap that the OLR is struggling to close even today. Here’s the causal chain: +ASR -> +T -> +OLR Ball4 says: January 8, 2017 at 9:02 AM Except Loeb 2016 results show that Earth OLR has decreased slightly within meaningful CI for the longest calibratable CERES record studied. CERES data calibrations were performed using ARGO thermometer data. Norman says: January 8, 2017 at 9:12 AM Kristian Thanks for you post. I was not trying to come up with a new idea with my point to David Appell. It was just a demonstration for him of how other effects can change energy accumulation. You can accumulate energy by either adding more energy and the rate of loss is unchanged or you can accumulate energy by keeping the input energy the same and lowering the output energy. I think the evidence is against the evaporation idea anyway. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/state-climate-2011-humidity The Specific Humidity graph on this page shows that the actual water vapor content over the oceans has increased which could not take place with less evaporation. Here is what I wrote to David Appell before starting the excercise: “Here is my reply. Please note that I am not making a claim that what I propose it what is actually happening. It is a demonstration only of how complex climate science and heat balance can be” David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:38 PM Norman, you can keep mentioning me, but (1) I am not going to check or verify your calculations, and (2) I am not going to buy them until they’ve been published in a decent peer reviewed journal. David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:41 PM Norman says: “”It was just a demonstration for him of how other effects can change energy accumulation” But you have yet to demonstrate that any of these ideas comes anywhere CLOSE to explaining modern warming. And even if they did, you’d have to explain why our GHG emissions aren’t a strong warming factor, when every piece of science says they are. David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:42 PM Norman says: “The oceans are receiving a flux of incoming solar energy.” How is this flux changing? Say, since 1960? David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:44 PM Norman says: “It would be the atmosphere and then after condensation it falls back down as rain. Not sure what your point is with that question. You specifically asked about another source of energy accumulation in the ocean and I provided one possible answer.” Why has this energy amount changed since the dawn of the industrial era? Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:43 PM I still don’t know where this “425,000 km3/yr” number comes from. Reply Salvatore Del Prete says: January 8, 2017 at 7:30 AM http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cdas_v2_hemisphere_2017.png where is all of the global warming? Reply Jan P Perlwitz says: January 8, 2017 at 9:37 AM Here it is: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ Reply Salvatore Del Prete says: January 8, 2017 at 7:41 AM Now with the sun entering a very quiet phase watch the global temperature trend over the next 6 to 12 months. Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:37 PM “…here is my prediction for climate going forward, this decade will be the decade of cooling.” – Salvatore del Prete, 11/23/2010 http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2010/10/20/andrew-dessler-debating-richard-lindzen/#comment-8875 Reply Norman says: January 8, 2017 at 10:27 PM Kristian and Ball4 I did email Norman Loeb concerning the CERES graphs and their validity. I will have to wait to see if he responds. If Ball4 is correct I will discontinue using the data from CERES. If Kristian is correct I think I should be allowed to post them without the stipulations placed on the graphs by Ball4 or David Appell. He may not respond. I will just have to wait and see. Reply Ball4 says: January 9, 2017 at 1:16 AM Good idea Norman. Though there is no need to discontinue your use of the CERES data calibrated consistent with all CERES team publications and cautions to users. Reply Kristian says: January 9, 2017 at 1:03 PM Thumbs up! Reply Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 6:53 PM test Reply Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:00 PM Kristian and Ball4 Dr. Loeb did respond to my email concerning the CERES website. It seems from his response that Kristian’s view are more valid than Ball4’s. But I will let you evaluate his response on your own to determine the correctness of your views. EMAIL RESPONSE: Dear Norman, As you may already know, EBAF is really two products: EBAF-TOA and EBAF-SFC. The Loeb et al papers primarily discuss EBAF-TOA. The TOA fluxes are closely tied to the actual CERES measurements since they correspond to reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation to space. For some reason the Roy’s webpage does not like something in the copied email so I will try to send it in parts to see what goes through. Reply Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:01 PM Next email segment from Dr. Loeb: In contrast, satellite-derived surface radiative fluxes are determined in a more indirect manner. One has to infer atmospheric and surface properties from imager data and compute surface fluxes using a radiative transfer model. For a reference on EBAF-SFC, you should read the following paper by Kato et al: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00436.1 Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:01 PM As shown in Fig. 1 of Kato et al (2013), EBAF-SFC processing starts with surface radiative flux calculations provided in the SYN1deg-Month data product. For a reference on SYN1deg, please see Rutan et al, 2015: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00165.1 Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:05 PM test Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:12 PM Found the segment that won’t post but not sure what is the offending material. Surface radiative fluxes in S Y N 1 deg -Month consist of radiative transfer model calculations initialized from a number of data sources (e.g., cloud properties retrieved from M O D I S Terra & Aqua imager radiances, 3-hourly cloud property retrievals from geostationary imagers covering 60S-60N, meteorological assimilation data, surface albedo maps, snow/sea-ice maps from N S I D C, aerosol assimilation data constrained using M O D I S aerosol retrievals, etc.) In addition to being able to calculate surface radiative fluxes with a radiative transfer model, one can also calculate T O A fluxes. Due to uncertainties in the input data used in the calculations, the computed T O A fluxes in S Y N 1 deg will not necessarily agree with T O A fluxes in E B A F-T O A. Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:16 PM Putting spaces between the letters of some words allowed it to post so I will do this on this next offending segment. Hope it does not make the email response too hard to follow. CONTINUED EMAIL RESPONSE: In order to provide a data product with self-consistent T O A and surface radiative fluxes, we created the E B A F-S F C product, which uses an objective constrainment algorithm to adjust the inputs used in S Y N 1 deg to ensure consistency between computed T O A fluxes and those provided in E B A F-T O A. Because this requires adjustments to the input data used in the calculations, surface radiative fluxes in E B A F-S F C may differ from those in S Y N 1 deg-Month. To guide adjustment process, we also bring in temperature/humidity data from A I R S and cloud heights from CALIPSO/Cloudsat (see the Kato et al., 2013 paper for more details). Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:17 PM Importantly, we do not adjust the E B A F-S F C fluxes based upon ground surface flux measurements as implied by Ball4s claim: calibrating the satellite data to surface instruments. The surface measurements over land and ocean provide independent validation of the E B A F-S F C surface radiative fluxes. Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:19 PM So, I would not call E B A F-S F C raw uncorrected data. It represents our best attempt at providing the most accurate surface radiative fluxes from satellite. We do our best to publish our validation results for users to interpret. We also provide users with the opportunity to evaluate the products themselves for their particular problem by making the ground measurements available on the ordering tool. For example, you can compare the E B A F surface fluxes directly with hundreds of surface observations with a few commands and have the results displayed for you on the ordering tool. See the following website: https://ceres-tool.larc.nasa.gov/cave/jsp/CAVEEBAFSelection.jsp Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:20 PM It is not my habit to read or interact with blogs so please excuse me if I choose not to dive into what appears to be a heated climate debate. Were very close to releasing a new version of E B A F (E B A F 4.0) hopefully later this month and I am literally swamped with work right now. Hope my comments are helpful. Regards, Norman Norman says: January 9, 2017 at 7:22 PM Kristian and Ball4 That was the entire contents of the email I received from Dr. Loeb. Hope that clears up questions on the issue of using CERES data. Seems it is a valid resource to use and you can compare the calculated values with ground measurements from his link. I tried it but it was currently unavailable. Ball4 says: January 9, 2017 at 8:18 PM Very well done Norman, thanks for the effort, I’ll dig up & go thru the papers mentioned. barry says: January 9, 2017 at 8:14 PM Well done going to source and asking for advice. Investigate with the caveats at least as recommended by Dr Loeb. I trust ‘skeptics’ will not be overly concerned that the input data has been adjusted and then subjected to modeling to process the results. (/ sarc) Norman says: January 10, 2017 at 9:16 AM barry, I am thinking the “skeptics” may not be against models just for the sake of being against them. The objection is that the models are not matching empirical reality. If you read some the of papers on the Surface Flux models, they find problems and work to correct and change how they calculate the surface fluxes from satellite data. Their goal is to make the most accurate data they are able to generate and they validate their product with empirical measured data. If the globe is not warming at the rate determined by most models (the average of the many models) then they should be evaluated and corrected. The goal of any model should be to match as closely as possible the empirical data and when it deviates, correct the model. Some believe that with the Progressive Governments of most Western Nations, these governments are pushing the CAGW meme in order to gain more power, money and control over people. If they can scare the Public enough, the Public will give up freedom for safety and “Big Brother” will watch and control it all for our safety. Since Governments have trillions of dollars flowing through the treasury they can afford to use some of this money to generate a false sense of panic in order to herd the citizens into compartments of fear and manipulation. Ball4 says: January 10, 2017 at 11:28 AM Norman – OK, I read thru Kato/Loeb 2013. This paper shows the complex process CERES team uses to go from EBAF TOA to EBAF SFC irradiances, i.e. Fig. 1 surface irradiance adjustment process to produce the EBAF-surface product. The process of obtaining CIs from the various satellite (A-train) and surface instruments should be a good source for you (and Kristian) to master if your ambition continues to make your EBAF TOA raw data downloads meaningful within CI (as in Loeb 2016 Table 4). As Dr. Loeb writes, the Loeb et. al. papers are your best source to achieve that ambition helped along mastering the 2013 SFC paper discussion of CI provenance. Once either of you are able to replicate Loeb 2016 Table 4, your processing of the raw data constrained meaningful within confidence intervals (CIs) will gain credibility. I point out Loeb 2016 concludes with: “…it is critical that there be no gaps between successive CERES instruments on different satellite platforms. Bridging a gap would require a reliance on the absolute calibration of CERES sensors, which is inadequate for this purpose (Loeb 2009).” This is why your link to TFK2009 concurs as to EB imbalance from CERES too large, can be meaningfully constrained by using ARGO (Loeb 2016). I do not understand how Dr. Loeb came up with the implication I meant they adjust E B A F-S F C fluxes to surface instruments – I did not imply that since I have been discussing the EBAF TOA product calibration cautions to users (not SFC cautions, if any). Kristian says: January 10, 2017 at 12:44 PM Ball4 says, January 10, 2017 at 11:28 AM: The process of obtaining CIs from the various satellite (A-train) and surface instruments should be a good source for you (and Kristian) to master if your ambition continues to make your EBAF TOA raw data downloads meaningful within CI (as in Loeb 2016 Table 4). (My boldface.) Ball4, Please don’t embarrass yourself even more. EBAF ToA data is BY DEFINITION not “raw data”. It is radiance data processed to level 3B (4) in the CERES flowchart: https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/products.php?product=EBAF-TOA https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/documents/DQ_summaries/CERES_EBAF_Ed2.8_DQS.pdf Ball4 says: January 10, 2017 at 12:57 PM Kristian remains moot on the raw data containing finished instrument calibration confidence intervals thus meaningful. If the data Kristian downloads does contain finished CIs, is not just raw, please show us. Ought to be no problem for Kristian to build credibility as an authority on CERES OLR by replicating Table 4 in Loeb 2016 from the raw data download(s) & showing his work (not just pretty graphs of the raw data). Kristian has had 6+ months of discussion to do this, we are still waiting even though I’ve provided links to pertinent Loeb papers and the CERES team user cautions: crickets. Kristian says: January 10, 2017 at 12:58 PM Norman says, January 9, 2017 at 7:22 PM: Hope that clears up questions on the issue of using CERES data. Seems it is a valid resource to use and you can compare the calculated values with ground measurements from his link. Of course (!!) it’s a valid resource. Ball4 is making up his own reality on this issue. However, one does need to be careful upon choosing which data product to use. This is from the CERES team itself (the FAQ): https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/faq_main.php#which_product “Which CERES Product Should I Use? – CERES best estimate (net-balanced) TOA fluxes, use EBAF especially for evaluation of climate model and energy budget – CERES best estimate surface fluxes, use SYN – CERES TOA fluxes for long term climate trend evaluation, use SSF with associated cloud and aerosol properties” EBAF is based on the SYN1deg and SSF1deg products. SYN1deg and SSF1deg observed LW ToA fluxes are both pretty close to the EBAF end product, while the surface fluxes (as Loeb himself alluded to) can be quite different between SYN1deg (the source) and EBAF (the end product). Kristian says: January 10, 2017 at 1:03 PM Ball4 says, January 10, 2017 at 12:57 PM: If the data Kristian downloads does contain finished CIs, is not just raw, please show us. Sigh It’s called EBAF Ed2.8, Ball4. Loeb wouldn’t publish the data under that name if it were still raw, you clown! The CERES team publishes their various data products for the public to see and use. The public can choose between data products all the way from the raw data (level 1) to the final end product (level 3B (4)). How thick can one get!? I’m sure if you asked Loeb himself about this (you don’t dare to, of course), he wouldn’t even understand what you’re talking about. Er, EBAF Ed2.8 ToA “raw data”? Huh? Ball4 says: January 10, 2017 at 1:15 PM “How thick can one get!?” Not as “thick” as Kristian, the finished work is Table 4 of Loeb 2016. You have not yet replicated the finished work from the raw data. I don’t have any need to contact Dr. Loeb, the finished data is in his Loeb 2016 easy to find, I already found it, I linked it for you. It is trivial to download the EBAF raw data and show a pretty graph which is the extent of your accomplishment after 6+ months of discussion. To finish the work and show your interpretations meaningful within CI means to master all the user data cautions in your own link, Loeb 2016, Kato/Loeb 2013 and calculate CI & replicate Table 4 Loeb 2016. Ball4 says: January 10, 2017 at 2:11 PM Kristian, I’ll be more specific, take your pretty graph download of EBAF Ed2.8, level 3B (4) (or the exact one used in Loeb 2016). In the last 6+ months you ought to have been easily able to truncate it to the dates in Loeb 2016 Table 4 and come up with their CERES/Terra Daytime LW TOA flux of -0.89 W/m^2 per decade, that from CERES/Aqua -0.73. You also ought to be able to explain why the truncation was performed on the raw EBAF Ed2.8, level 3B (4) (or earlier) data (hint: explained in a ref. at the end of the paper). You have to date after 6+ months shown no sign of subject mastery in being able to do so let alone using the data cautions and A-Train constellation for confidence interval development on the raw data. All necessary if you are to credibly extend CERES Team work as was your ambition at the start of these discussions. David Appell says: January 16, 2017 at 4:25 PM Norman says: “Were very close to releasing a new version of E B A F (E B A F 4.0) hopefully later this month and I am literally swamped with work right now.” Who is “we?” David Appell says: January 16, 2017 at 4:26 PM Norman says: “Some believe that with the Progressive Governments of most Western Nations, these governments are pushing the CAGW meme in order to gain more power, money and control over people” Norman, the US has had a cap-and-trade program for 25 years. How exactly has this exerted control over you? David Appell says: January 17, 2017 at 10:53 PM Norman: Again, who is “we?” If you work for a scienific group, you should say so. Ed Millerski says: January 9, 2017 at 9:31 AM 9 of the 10 hottest years in the UAH satellite record occurred this century. 9 of the 10 coldest years occurred last century. Perhaps this too is “statistically insignificant”, but it sure as hell seems to indicate things are indeed heating up. Reply Bindidon says: January 9, 2017 at 11:52 AM Yes, Ed, and especially in the northernmost latitudes. The most known UAH6.0 record shows in its ‘NoPol’ column (60N-82.5N) a trend of 0.24 C / decade, and that’s already twice as much as for the entire Globe. But if you inspect UAH’s 2.5 deg gridded record and compute the linear trends for all 66 available latitude zones, you obtain for the northernmost latitudes (80N-82.5N) a trend of 0.42 C / decade. And if you compute the trends separately for all 9,504 grid cells, you see that – the cell with the highest trend has shown 4.62 C / decade; – 96 of the 100 highest trends were computed for cells located in 80N-82.5N (two are in Kamchatka, two at the South Pole). Reply Bart says: January 9, 2017 at 12:15 PM So what? Things have been warming since the exit of the LIA. The questions are: 1) Do we have anything significant to do with it? 2) Can we do anything to stop it? 3) Would we want to do anything to stop it? The answers are, no, no, and no. Reply Bindidon says: January 10, 2017 at 7:21 AM A little correction due to your egocentrism: Your answers are, no, no, and no. Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:35 PM Bart: Seriously, have you ever taken the time to read about the evidence for man’s role in modern warming? If so, what have you read? Reply David Appell says: January 17, 2017 at 10:52 PM Still no answer, Bart? I’ll take that to mean you haven’t read anything whatsoever. Reply ChuckC says: January 9, 2017 at 9:15 PM It indicates that things HAVE heated up, thru 1998. This is now 2017. Reply Bindidon says: January 10, 2017 at 7:42 AM It indicates that things HAVE heated up, thru 1998. Indeed! And UAH6.0’s trend from 1999 till today is exactly the same as that from 1979: 0.12 C / decade. Reply David Appell says: January 10, 2017 at 10:33 PM The vast gains in ocean heat content leaves no doubt whatsoever that the Earth still has a substantial energy imbalance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_heat_content#/media/File:Ocean_Heat_Content_(2012).png Reply Bindidon says: January 9, 2017 at 11:35 AM JMA is one of the “coldest” pure surface temperature record available: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html December data is not officially available yet, but you see a ranking this last month hardly might manage to change: 1st. 2016(+0.46C), 2nd. 2015(+0.42C), 3rd. 2014(+0.27C), 4th. 1998(+0.22C), 5th. 2013,2010(+0.20C) Reply barry says: January 9, 2017 at 6:49 PM Bindidon, here’s the annual anomalies listed. As of today 2016 is averaged to November, but in about 5 days it will be updated for December. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/list/year_wld.html Reply Bindidon says: January 10, 2017 at 7:16 AM Thanks Barry, I have seen that a few days ago, but yearly data isn’t very interesting for me. I’m waiting for JMA’s 5 deg gridded data, allowing me to compare it in 80-85N with Roy Spencer’s 2.5 deg record. Thanks a propos to him for having published the trend map at WUWT; that was a good idea, as many people have few knowledge about high latitude trends in the Arctic. Reply David Appell says: January 17, 2017 at 10:51 PM JMA’s December number is preliminary, not official. Read more carefully. Reply barry says: January 18, 2017 at 8:12 AM For the record: RSS 1998 : 0.55 RSS 2016 : 0.57 All the global [land/sea] data sets will have 2016 at the top rank. If they’re all non-significant results, we’ll still be left with all 6 showing 2016 as highest rank. 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0.986679	The Android system has a logging facility that allows systemwide logging of information, from applications and system components. This is separate from the Linux kernel's own logging system, which is accessed using 'dmesg' or '/proc/kmsg'. However, the logging system does store messages in kernel buffers. image by Tetsuyuki Kobabayshi, of Kyoto Microcomputer Co. The logging system consists of: a kernel driver and kernel buffers for storing log messages C, C++ and Java classes for making log entries and for accessing the log messages a standalone program for viewing log messages (logcat) ability to view and filter the log messages from the host machine (via eclipse or ddms) There are four different log buffers in the Linux kernel, which provide logging for different parts of the system. Access to the different buffers is via device nodes in the file system, in /dev/log. The four log buffers are: main - the main application log events - for system event information radio - for radio and phone-related informatio system - a log for low-level system messages and debugging Up until 2010, only the first three logs existed. The system log was created to keep system messages in a separate buffer (outside of '/dev/log/main') so that a single verbose application couldn't overrun system messages and cause them to be lost. Each message in the log consists of a tag indicating the part of the system or application that the message came from, a timestamp, the message log level (or priority of the event represented by the message) and the log message itself. All of the log buffers except for 'event' use free-form text messages. The 'event' buffer is a 'binary' buffer, where the event messages (and event parameters) are stored in binary form. This form is more compact, but requires extra processing when the event is read from the buffer, as well as a message lookup database, to decode the event strings. The logging system automatically routes messages with specific tags into the radio buffer. Other messages are placed into their respective buffers when the the log class or library for that buffer is used. Kernel driver The kernel driver for logging is called the 'logger'. See Android logger System and Application logging Application log An Android application includes the android.util.Log class, and uses methods of this class to write messages of different priority into the log. Java classes declare their tag statically as a string, which they pass to the log method. The log method used indicates the message "severity" (or log level). Messages can be filtered by tag or priority when the logs are processed by retrieval tools (logcat). Event log Event logs messages are created using android.util.EventLog class, which create binary-formatted log messages. Log entries consist of binary tag codes, followed by binary parameters. The message tag codes are stored on the system at: /system/etc/event-log-tags. Each message has the string for the log message, as well as codes indicating the values associated with (stored with) that entry. System log Many classes in the Android framework utilize the system log to keep their messages separate from (possibly noisy) application log messages. These programs use the android.util.Slog class, with its associated messages. In all cases, eventually a formatted message is delivered through the C/C++ library down to the kernel driver, which stores the message in the appropriate buffer. logwrapper It is sometimes useful to capture stdout from native applications into the log. There is a utility called logwrapper which can be used to run a program, and redirect it's stdout into log messages. Logcat command You can use the 'logcat' command to read the log. This command is located in /system/bin in the local filesystem, or you can access the functionality using the 'adb logcat' command. Documentation on the use of this command is at: http://developer.android.com/guide/developing/tools/adb.html Some quick notes: Log messages each have a tag and priority. You can filter the messages by tag and log level, with a different level per tag. You can specify (using a system property) that various programs emit their stdout or stderr to the log. Resources Android Debug Bridge reference page - has 'adb logcat' usage information Logging System Of Android Presentation by Tetsuyuki Kobayashi, September, 2010 at CELF's Japan Technical Jamboree 34 Retrieved from "https://elinux.org/index.php?title=Android_Logging_System&oldid=30391" Navigation menu Personal tools Log in Request account Namespaces Page Discussion Variants Views Read View source View history More Search Navigation Main Page Community portal Current events Recent changes Help Volunteering Where else to find us Twitter (@elinux) #elinux on Libera.Chat Facebook (@elinux.org) Mailing Lists Matrix Tools What links here Related changes Special pages Printable version Permanent link Page information Content is available under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License unless otherwise noted.
0.999856	NEW YORK -- Forced from the field by COVID-19, the Miami Marlins returned with enough force to reach the playoffs for the first time since their 2003 championship. A National League-worst 57-105 a year ago, they sealed the improbable berth on the field of the team that Miami CEO Derek Jeter and manager Don Mattingly once captained. "I think this is a good lesson for everyone. It really goes back to the players believing," Mattingly said after a 4-3, 10-inning victory over the New York Yankees on Friday night. Miami will start the playoffs on the road Wednesday, its first postseason game since winning the 2003 World Series as the Florida Marlins, capped by a Game 6 victory in the Bronx over Jeter and his New York teammates at the previous version of Yankee Stadium. Marvelous Marlins The 2019 Marlins were the worst team ever by record to clinch a playoff berth the following season. Season* Team W-L** 2020 Marlins 57-105 2017 Twins 59-103 2011 Diamondbacks 65-97 1999 Diamondbacks 65-97 1991 Braves 65-97 * Season of playoff appearance ** Previous year's record "I can't contain the tears, because it's a lot of grind, a lot of passion," shortstop Miguel Rojas said. "It wasn't just the virus. Last year we lost 100 games. But we came out this year with the hope everything was going to be better. When we had the outbreak, the guys who got an opportunity to help the organization, thank you for everything you did." The Marlins (30-28) became just the second team in MLB history to reach the postseason the season after losing at least 100 games, joining the 2017 Minnesota Twins. Their 16-season playoff drought was the second-longest active streak in the majors, behind the Seattle Mariners (18). The Marlins have been to the playoffs only twice before in franchise history -- they won the World Series both times. The playoff clincher Friday also came on the anniversary of Jose Fernandez's death. The former Marlins ace died in a boating accident four years ago, something not lost on Mattingly postgame. "What we've been through, and then to do this on his day, what a feeling," Mattingly said. After Jesus Aguilar hit a sacrifice fly in the top of the 10th, Marlins reliever Brandon Kintzler got major league batting leader DJ LeMahieu to ground into a game-ending double play with the bases loaded. Miami players ran onto the field, formed a line and exchanged hugs that did not follow social distancing guidelines. The Marlins were one of baseball's great doubts at the start of the most shortened season since 1878, forced off the field when 18 players tested positive for COVID-19 following the opening series in Philadelphia. Miami returned to the field on Aug. 4 following an eight-day layoff with reinforcements from its alternate training site, the trade market and the waiver wire to replace the players on the injured list and won its first five games. The Marlins celebrated their first playoff berth in 16 seasons after beating the Yankees 4-3 in 10 innings on Friday night. Sarah Stier/Getty Images The Marlins survived a pair of four-game losing streaks to reach the expanded 16-team postseason. With games bunched, the Marlins are 14-12 heading into the final stretch of playing 28 games in 24 days. "We're just starting. We've got to keep doing what we're doing," said Sandy Alcantara, who handed a 3-2 lead to his bullpen in the eighth. The Yankees had already wrapped up a playoff spot. Mattingly captained the Yankees in 1991-95 and is in his fifth season managing the Marlins. Jeter captained the Yankees in 2003-14 as part of a career that included five World Series titles in 20 seasons and is part of the group headed by Bruce Sherman that bought the Marlins in October 2017. Miami is second in the NL East at 30-28 and improved to 19-13 on the road. The Marlins will play 34 road games due to the schedule disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic. They arrived at their hotel at 5:30 a.m. ET on Friday following a rain-delayed win in Atlanta.
0.999757	We've all felt stressed at some point, whether in our personal or professional lives or in response to exceptional circumstances like the COVID-19 pandemic. But until now there has been no way to quantify stress levels in an objective manner. That could soon change thanks to a small wearable sensor developed by engineers at EPFL's Nanoelectronic Devices Laboratory (Nanolab) and Xsensio. The device can be placed directly on a patient's skin and can continually measure the concentration of cortisol, the main stress biomarker, in the patient's sweat. Cortisol: A double-edged sword Cortisol is a steroid hormone made by our adrenal glands out of cholesterol. Its secretion is controlled by the adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), which is produced by the pituitary gland. Cortisol carries out essential functions in our bodies, such as regulating metabolism, blood sugar levels and blood pressure; it also affects the immune system and cardiovascular functions. When we're in a stressful situation, whether life-threatening or mundane, cortisol is the hormone that takes over. It instructs our bodies to direct the required energy to our brain, muscles and heart. "Cortisol can be secreted on impulse - you feel fine and suddenly something happens that puts you under stress, and your body starts producing more of the hormone," says Adrian Ionescu, head of Nanolab. While cortisol helps our bodies respond to stressful situations, it's actually a double-edged sword. It's usually secreted throughout the day according to a circadian rhythm, peaking between 6am and 8am and then gradually decreasing into the afternoon and evening. "But in people who suffer from stress-related diseases, this circadian rhythm is completely thrown off," says Ionescu. "And if the body makes too much or not enough cortisol, that can seriously damage an individual's health, potentially leading to obesity, cardiovascular disease, depression or burnout." Capturing the hormone to measure it Blood tests can be used to take snapshot measurements of patients' cortisol levels. However, detectable amounts of cortisol can also be found in saliva, urine and sweat. Ionescu's team at Nanolab decided to focus on sweat as the detection fluid and developed a wearable smart patch with a miniaturized sensor. The patch contains a transistor and an electrode made from graphene which, due to its unique proprieties, offers high sensitivity and very low detection limits. The graphene is functionalized through aptamers, which are short fragments of single-stranded DNA or RNA that can bind to specific compounds. The aptamer in the EPFL patch carries a negative charge; when it comes into contact with cortisol, it immediately captures the hormone, causing the strands to fold onto themselves and bringing the charge closer to the electrode surface. The device then detects the charge, and is consequently able to measure the cortisol concentration in the wearer's sweat. So far, no other system has been developed for monitoring cortisol concentrations continuously throughout the circadian cycle. "That's the key advantage and innovative feature of our device. Because it can be worn, scientists can collect quantitative, objective data on certain stress-related diseases. And they can do so in a non-invasive, precise and instantaneous manner over the full range of cortisol concentrations in human sweat," says Ionescu. Engineering improved healthcare The engineers tested their device on Xsensio's proprietary Lab-on-SkinTM platform; the next step will be to place it in the hands of healthcare workers. Esmeralda Megally, CEO of Xsensio, says: "The joint R&D team at EPFL and Xsensio reached an important R&D milestone in the detection of the cortisol hormone. We look forward to testing this new sensor in a hospital setting and unlocking new insight into how our body works." The team has set up a bridge project with Prof. Nelly Pitteloud, chief of endocrinology, diabetes and metabolism at the Lausanne University Hospital (CHUV), for her staff to try out the continuous cortisol-monitoring system on human patients. These trials will involve healthy individuals as well as people suffering from Cushing's syndrome (when the body produces too much cortisol), Addison's disease (when the body doesn't produce enough) and stress-related obesity. The engineers believe their sensor can make a major contribution to the study of the physiological and pathological rhythms of cortisol secretion. So what about psychological diseases caused by too much stress? "For now, they are assessed based only on patients' perceptions and states of mind, which are often subjective," says Ionescu. "So having a reliable, wearable system can help doctors objectively quantify whether a patient is suffering from depression or burnout, for example, and whether their treatment is effective. What's more, doctors would have that information in real time. That would mark a major step forward in the understanding of these diseases." And who knows, maybe one day this technology will be incorporated into smart bracelets. "The next phase will focus on product development to turn this exciting invention into a key part of our Lab-on-SkinTM sensing platform, and bring stress monitoring to next-generation wearables," says Megally. ### Journal Communications Materials DOI 10.1038/s43246-020-00114-x Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.
0.998344	Compliance is the act of complying with a command, desire, or rule. Alternately, some give the definition of compliance as adhering to requirements, standards, or regulations. Both of these compliance definitions are important for your organization. To be successful, your organization must take steps to make sure every staff member is complying with internal policies and rules you put in place. You also must ensure that your company as a whole is in compliance with any external laws, regulations, or standards relating to your industry. What dose Compliance mean for your Organization: In general, compliance in the workplace involves two important areas: Regulatory Compliance: the steps an organization takes to comply with relevant external laws, regulations, and guidelines. Corporate Compliance: the actions and programs an organization sets in place to ensure compliance with internal policies, procedures, and accepted behavior, as well as external regulations. These types of compliance go hand in hand, and both are essential. An organization that neglects regulatory compliance may face federal fines or legal action, and could even be shut down. An organization without a corporate compliance program may have chaotic, wasteful, or unethical practices. Usually, companies ensure compliance by creating policies and procedures and then establishing a compliance department to make sure everyone adheres to policy. What Is a Compliance Department? Many organizations create a compliance department or committee to help enforce compliance. Some companies may have one primary compliance officer. In any case, a compliance officer or department makes sure everyone does what they’re supposed to do. This may include educating employees about regulations and policies, monitoring behavior, and following through on any necessary corrective or disciplinary actions. Compliance department members Of course, the structure and makeup of a compliance department will look different for every organization. Some companies may choose to create a compliance committee made up of supervisors from different areas of the organization. Others may hire a specific compliance officer who has training and experience in compliance enforcement. The structure of the compliance department depends on the size and reach of the organization. For example, companies that do business internationally may need several compliance officers or committee members in each region. Compliance officers will make sure that the organization complies with the local laws and standards in every area where they operate. What does a compliance officer do? There are five main functions of a compliance officer: 1. Identify the risks an organization faces Compliance officers will regularly run risk assessments and advise corporate leadership on which areas pose the biggest potential risks. This may include looking over documentation that covers things such as: audit results, recent litigation, compliance complaints, employee claims, industry enforcement trends, and policies in each risk area. 2. Create and implement processes to protect against those risks Once a compliance officer has identified a risk, he or she will work with organizational leaders to design controls to prevent that risk. The method of prevention will differ depending on the issue. For some risks, it may be as simple as revising policies and procedures. Others may require an organization to conduct additional training on a topic or revamp safety and security measures. Some measure of risk is unavoidable. But having compliance controls in place can help if your organization does end up facing a lawsuit. Contact us Address House# 4/2-A, Road # 11, South Bishil, Mirpur-1, Dhaka-1216, Bangladesh Email [email protected] Phone +880 1739587263 +880 1915135500 About Us Evergreen Environmental Service is one of the foremost competitive and the most productive third party environmental testing laboratory in Bangladesh, offering a full range of environmental inspection, testing, assessment and consultancy services for attaining beautiful eco-friendly world. Read More….
0.999982	From a quick buffet bite to an à la carte delight, here's what awaits for first class passengers and Platinum frequent flyers. By Chris C., November 15 2019 Share this article: While Emirates offers many speedy transits through Dubai Airport, having access to the airline's first class lounges here can be reason enough to plan a longer stopover: or, to arrive early for your flight when beginning the day's travels in Dubai. Beyond other perks like complimentary shoe shine and day spa treatments, Emirates' three first class lounges provide both buffet and à la carte dining: here's what awaits on your next Emirates journey. Who can visit Emirates' first class dining rooms? Nestled inside the Emirates first class lounges at Dubai Airport's Concourse A, Concourse B and Concourse C, these first class dining rooms open their doors to all passengers who can access those same first class lounges. That list naturally includes Emirates' first class travellers, along with Platinum and iO members of the Emirates Skywards frequent flyer program when travelling onwards with Emirates or with Flydubai from Terminal 3, where these lounges are located. Qantas Platinum, Platinum One and Chairman's Lounge members can also visit these lounges prior to Emirates flights, when travelling on a QF or EK flight number. All travellers above can bring at least one complimentary adult guest into the lounge, and in most cases, two children aged 17 or under are also accepted. Emirates passengers who don't have access to the first class lounges can also pay their way inside, and dine during their stay. For those who'd already have business class lounge access, the upcharge is US$136.50, reduced to US$105 for Skywards members of any tier including entry-level Blue members who've joined for free. Travellers who have no lounge entitlement – such as when booked on a business class 'Special' fare or in economy, without eligible frequent flyer status – can instead pay US$262.50, or US$210 for Skywards members of any tier. All amounts include UAE VAT. Regardless of how your access to the first class lounge is provided, once inside, visiting the dining room isn't a chargeable extra: as long as you're physically in the lounge, you can take a seat. Emirates first class lounge dining: buffet For passengers making a speedy transit or arriving shortly before their flight commences boarding, Emirates offers a variety of buffet options in its first class lounges for a quick and easy bite. In the Concourse A first class lounge – which is so large that it literally runs from one end of the terminal to the other – there's a helpful list of what's available just past the entrance, joined by a map of where you'll find each item: But regardless of which Concourse you're travelling through, here's a taste of what you might find. At breakfast time, expect a variety of yoghurts, fresh fruits, muesli, juices, bakery items and cereals to get the day started: On the coffee front, there are plenty of self-serve espresso machines to make your own brews, although if you'd like a fresh barista-made coffee such as a latte, just ask the staff. Arabic coffee is on-hand too, with the obligatory dates to match. Knowing that many travellers flying through Dubai are running on different time zones, there's usually a lunch spread available at the same time as breakfast is served for those who'd prefer it, with fresh ingredients at-hand to create a custom salad. Depending on when and where you're visiting, you'll also find many antipasto choices, as well as a selection of cheese. Head to the Mediterranean counter for a broader range of appetisers and smaller bites, or look to the dessert fridge nearby for something sweet. Alternatively, handmade Arabic sweets are often served at a separate counter – sometimes, later in the day in place of sushi – for those wanting to sample something more local. A variety of hot buffet dishes are also available and change throughout the day, but if you have the time, a visit to the dining room for a freshly-made plate trumps any bain-marie. Emirates first class lounge dining rooms When it comes to table service, Emirates offers this in the dedicated dining areas of all three first class lounges at Dubai Airport. The tables here can accommodate solo travellers, pairs and larger groups, although in the Concourse C first class lounge – which is noticeably smaller than the other two – passengers have the option of dining at a communal bench. It's not the only place you can dine, of course, with an array of tables just behind: but when those tables are occupied, it's a good option to have when time is limited, to avoid missing out. One other tip: although service is usually limited to the pre-arranged dining sections in each lounge, asking the staff nicely – particularly on a quiet day – can allow you to enjoy your meal somewhere else more convenient. For example, a recent visit to the Concourse A first class lounge found the 'normal' dining area too hot for comfort in the middle of a 44°C Dubai day, even in the air conditioning. However, asking the staff what else might be available saw a table open up in a much cooler section of the lounge, outside the normal restaurant area. Being away from the windows – the source of much of that heat, despite the tinted glass – made for a much more comfortable meal. Emirates first class lounge dining: à la carte breakfast When jetting through Dubai Airport in the mornings, particularly before those pre-lunchtime flights to Australia and Europe, sitting down to breakfast is a pleasant way to begin the journey. On the menu, you'll find just about everything you'd expect of a local cafe, with Eggs Benedict a common favourite served with your choice of sides, beverages, and a bread basket with condiments, seen here in the Concourse B first class lounge. As in first class on board, meals here can be customised to suit your taste – so if you like the look of an omelette in one section, and the Marmite soldiers from another dish, ordering them together is easy (and tasty): Again, as the body clocks of many visitors won't be on 'Dubai time' when zipping through, a selection of dishes more appropriate for lunch and dinner are also available during the breakfast service. For example, a recent morning visit to the Concourse C first class lounge – at the midpoint of a journey from South America to Asia, crossing numerous time zones in between – called for the Black Angus tenderloin as an early lunch, at what was 8am local time. Just me mindful that orders from the lunch menu can take much longer to arrive at breakfast: over half an hour for the dish above, versus typically five minutes or less for breakfast egg dishes. Emirates first class lounge dining: à la carte lunch, dinner After breakfast concludes, the small selection of 'all day' dishes expands to the full lunch and dinner menu, offering a variety of appetisers, soups, sandwiches, main courses and desserts. For guests travelling in first class, this provides the opportunity to enjoy a full meal on the ground and either get to work or sleep in the sky, as Emirates offers 'dine on demand' on all first class flights, so you can order what you like, when you like. As an example, with a mid-afternoon first class flight from Dubai to Geneva, visiting the lounge a few hours prior to departure gave ample time for a leisurely lunch, and then with dine on demand, no need to eat straight after take-off: instead, several hours later prior to the flight's evening arrival. ET review: Emirates Boeing 777 first class, Dubai-Geneva In any case, lunch or dinner provides a bread basket with a choice of French butter: The day's selection of local appetisers are available too, such as hummus, olives and tabbouleh to get things started, which is where that bread basket also comes in handy. What comes next is entirely up to you. For something familiarly Western, the char-grilled wagyu burger is a solid choice, served on a potato brioche bun with caramelised onions, Emirates' signature sauce, aged cheddar cheese, steak fries and dipping sauces. But you need only look at the menu to find something more refined, like the beautifully fresh foie gras terrine served with mache lettuce, poached peaches and lightly toasted brioche. It's a similar dish as onboard in first class on some Emirates flights, and having tried both, the 'lounge' version is one not to be missed. As a main course, the beautifully-presented kibbeh bi laban blends minced meat into crushed and stuffed wheat balls, which is then cooked in yoghurt and served with a side of rice. The trick is to find your preferred ratio of yoghurt and rice to meat. Personally, a little less yoghurt with a sprinkle more rice hits the spot. After a good stretch of the legs – the lounge so large that a complete, leisurely circuit takes around 45 minutes – it's time for dessert, where the chocolate delight is a top pick. This plated dessert combines white chocolate mousse, milk chocolate ganache, dark chocolate genoise and salted caramel ice cream as a beautiful and artfully-presented finish to a great meal. It's at this point you'll be glad you're flying Emirates first class, so that you have the flexibility to hit 'pause' on the inflight food until you're ready to eat again! Also read: Emirates Boeing 777 first class private suite review Chris Chamberlin travelled to Dubai as a guest of Emirates. More on dining from Executive Traveller: Dining in Japan Airlines' new Tokyo Narita first class lounge Behind the frosted door at Hong Kong's most exclusive restaurant, reserved for AMEX Centurion Card holders Dining at Heston Blumenthal's three-Michelin-starred The Fat Duck, once recognised as the best restaurant in the world Tasted: Qantas' first class lounge menu for Spring 2019 The best dining rooms in business class airport lounges Chris C. A Brisbane-based contributor to Executive Traveller, Chris Chamberlin lives by the motto that a journey of a thousand miles begins not just with a single step, but also a strong latte, a theatre ticket, and later in the day, a good gin and tonic. More stories on: emirates first class Dubai food dining airport lounges First Class Lounge Share this article: Subscribe to our newsletter Sign up 3 Comments Sort by : Oldest Newest Oldest Top Rated 34manu34 View posts Message 34manu34 Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer 02 Mar 2018 Total posts 11 Foie Gras was my favourite last October (on the way to CDG)...but haven t enjoyed their Burger. (overcooked) on my way back, after few days stop-over in DXB, Benedicts were proposed with sauce aside...(a first for me so I accepted) and find that option very interesting as most of the time, QFF Lounge serve them with far to much hollandaise. Hopefully, Champagne bar will be available soon. (like in J) Friday, 29 Nov 2019, 03:21:11 pm 0 0 0 CP View posts Message CP SilkAir - KrisFlyer 28 Mar 2017 Total posts 17 I find the Arabic dining options in the First Class Lounge to be particularly fine - usually light, fresh and tasty. The recent breakfast option of foul mesdames was a standout! Friday, 29 Nov 2019, 03:26:11 pm 0 0 0 lafleche View posts Message lafleche Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer 08 Jun 2016 Total posts 44 When I was in F lounge Concourse A last week I tried the white onion veloute with mushrooms. Absolutely delicious and I recommend it if you're looking for a lighter option. Saturday, 30 Nov 2019, 01:36:11 am 0 0 0 Hi Guest, join in the discussion on Dining in Emirates' Dubai first class lounges Post Leave this empty: Executive Traveller Live TM9 replied to Phone contact a disgrace Grannular liked Phone contact a disgrace PERflyer liked AUSTRALIA CLOSED AGAIN... jrfsp liked AUSTRALIA CLOSED AGAIN... Worldflyer90 liked Phone contact a disgrace mspcooper liked AUSTRALIA CLOSED AGAIN... Ryan K replied to Phone contact a disgrace cowa001 thanked Virgin Australia resumes Sydney-Canberra flights plad liked AUSTRALIA CLOSED AGAIN... 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0.96815	Patients with Pseudodysphagia complaint about the inability to swallow but they do not have any physical symptoms to account for their condition. The word Pseudodysphagia comes from Greek Phagophobia where “phagein” means eating and “phobos” means deep dread, aversion or fear. Other names for this phobia include sitophobia where sito is Greek for food. Pseudodysphagia is an unnatural and irrational fear of choking or swallowing that causes a person to believe s/he will become ill or die if one tries to eat solid foods. The nature of difficulty these patients face when it comes to swallowing varies depending on the level of their fear: some people can only eat very small pieces of well lubricated foods, while others are afraid of drinking liquids or swallowing pills or tablets. Naturally, there is substantial loss of weight in this phobia and it is a debilitating condition that can interfere with one’s day-to-day life. What are the causes of fear of choking phobia? As with most specific phobias, Pseudodysphagia also begins with a negative experience related to swallowing food. As a child, the phobic might have choked, vomited or had an “embarrassing response” after swallowing certain types of foods. The brain then creates the same response as a defensive mechanism each time one is confronted with the thought of eating. For example, a patient recalls choking (as a child) on a quarter after it got lodged in his throat. He lost consciousness and turned blue and recalls fearing eating solid foods like steaks, meats, capsules, pills (anything hard or chewy) after the incident. Psychiatrists also believe that most people with the extreme fear of choking are usually anxious or suffering from other psychiatric disorders like depression, Hypochondriasis, Agoraphobia or have a general predisposition to panic attacks. The fear of choking is also often listed in conjunction with Globus sensation-(a condition that comes and goes wherein the patient feels there is a lump in his throat that prevents him from eating). However, the two conditions are different; Globus sensation is more common and occurs when patients are typically suffering from ear-nose-throat infections that cause them to fear they might choke or vomit after eating. Symptoms of Pseudodysphagia Psychogenic Dysphagia leads to many psychological symptoms, the most important one being inefficient or disorganized swallowing. Other symptoms of the fear of choking include: Quiz: Do You Have an Anxiety Disorder? Take the Test Now Avoidance of food, especially swallowing pills, tablets, hard and chewy foods Abnormal oral behavior is also seen including deviant tongue movements, feeling the throat pressure, and complaint of globus sensation. Malnutrition and weight loss are common side effects of this phobia General difficulties in breathing, swallowing and other issues like elevated heart rate, feeling dizzy, having fearful thoughts of dying, passing out or embarrassing oneself in front of others are common symptoms of Pseudodysphagia. Nightmares about choking on candy, peanuts or indelible objects also tend to keep these patients awake at night. Some refuse to eat in front of others thinking that swallowing makes “unpleasant noises”. Needless to say, this phobia is a debilitating condition that affects the normal life of the patients. Overcoming the fear Experts recommend taking a multi-disciplinary approach for overcoming the fear of swallowing. This includes professionals from fields of psychiatry, Otolaryngology, radiology as well as Gastroenterology. Aversion relief therapy has been proven to be quite effective in treating the fear of choking. In this extreme measure, the patient is given a slight shock to his fingers until he swallows. To get relief, the patient has no option but to swallow the food, since the shock is ceased only after swallowing action takes place. This has shown good results since many patients have progressed to swallowing at normal rate after 8-10 sessions of aversion therapy. Desensitization therapy is another proven and effective treatment for patients having the extreme fear of choking which leads to recurrent nightmares. This therapy is often used along with tongue depressors at the back of the throat to help patients overcome their anxiety about swallowing. Relaxation sessions may also be conducted before eating meals. These include breathing deeply, positive visualization and/or guided meditation. These self-help methods along with behavior therapy and Gradual desensitization are very useful in overcoming Pseudodysphagia or the fear of choking. Comments Jackie says June 3, 2021 at 5:59 pm Can this be inherited? I was told a grandparent suffered with the same. Reply BrighterDayz says January 26, 2021 at 9:37 pm 46 year old female from Baltimore MD. It’s nice to know I’m not alone. I just try to eat slow and take deep breaths and not turn my head side to side, stay looking forward. I do have GAD and before my situation that created the GAD, I had no problems eating. It gets bad sometimes when it feels as if something is caught right at the back of my throat. I take my finger and try to dig back there. It’s scary and it causes me to get more anxious of course. I couldn’t eat for months because of my anxiety trigger and then the actual diagnosis of anxiety I lost 25 pounds. A dr. recommended protein drinks, which I drank for about 5 months then began to get painful pins and needles sensations. My anxiety lead me to believe it could have been from the protein drinks, so I stopped drinking them. I am in therapy but in the middle of starting with a new therapist. I still have the sensations. I’ve been told it could be from my anxiety. SMH. Everything is from anxiety they say. My chest bones are sore, guess what, it’s your anxiety they say. But anyway it’s a daily struggle just having GAD but then having this horrible fear of choking makes it worse. You’re not alone. It may feel like it, but you’re not. Reply Suzanne says February 15, 2021 at 10:17 pm Hello. How did you overcome your fear of choking? Did you ever use ERP therapy? What about meds.? Reply Frida Ramirez says March 10, 2021 at 7:39 pm Reading these comments help me so much to understand and stay calm while I eat and feel less alone. Reply Amanda says March 28, 2021 at 12:19 am I have finally found someone who has the same issues as me. Mine is so severe that I am now afraid of drinking water. Please help me with this. I don’t know how I got here, and I need help getting out. Reply Hadleigh says August 28, 2021 at 12:57 am I am going through the same thing right now. It started off with solids, then softer foods, and I’ve gotten so scared I panic from drinking water. We will get through this. Reply Hadleigh says August 28, 2021 at 12:55 am I have gone through phases of this three times in my lifetime. I’m only 18 now. No one has ever been able to help me. It’s been really hard, and it is nice to see someone who understands. I hope you’re doing okay now. Reply Brit says January 1, 2021 at 3:29 pm Also I want to add that I avoid eating out most times because of my fear of choking. If I do, I’ll get something like ice cream that goes down easy. Reply Brit says January 1, 2021 at 3:27 pm Wow! I went through most of the comments and I have to say, I go through this as well. Sometimes I just have my days when my anxiety starts randomly and I just feel tension in my throat. I tend to get anxious sometimes while eating that I think when I swallow I’ll choke on my food, but it’s all in my head, or sometimes I’ll feel like something is stuck. Sometimes after eating chips, I avoid foods like steak and Mozzarella sticks as I feel like they’re choking hazards. I now chew my food really thoroughly (as everyone should). I feel better when I drink liquid after every bite. I just take a bit longer to eat just to make sure my food is in tiny, tiny pieces so that I can swallow it. Glad to know I’m not the only one who goes through this! Reply Kat says March 1, 2021 at 11:56 am Omg I’m glad to know I’m not the only one. Right now I’m seeing a psychiatrist (for other reasons and then my fear of choking suddenly triggered.) I’m still on my 4th week and I hope I get better soon. I hate this feeling. I lost weight already for the past weeks. Reply Yvonne Brady says October 16, 2020 at 12:54 pm Hi folks. While it is a huge relief knowing that I’m not the only one who’s fear is really real, I’m wondering if there’s varying types of it. I grew up watching my father (R.I.P) nearly choke on a daily basis. My mother said it was because he had a “small swallow”. I’m the youngest of 6 kids, so I had to watch this longer than my siblings. And it’s affected me since, and has affected my mother too. I’m 43, a single parent to a 22 yr old, and a granny to a 9 month old girl. And I’m terrified. Absolutely terrified that my granddaughter will choke. My fear now has somehow gone from ME choking to HER, and I just cant control it. I used to be worse – tablets were a huge issue, and sometimes halfway through a meal, I would feel like I couldn’t breathe and would have to throw away the rest of the food. I got to a point where I just got sick of being like this, then I gave myself a good talking to and it seemed to have worked. I still have some bad days, but I only eat small portions of food at a time, so that’s better. However, things now are coming to a head – my daughter is going back to work next week from 6am, so I’ll have to feed the baby for 2 meals, and I’m so frightened that I’ll choke her. Up to now, I’ve tried to feed her and been successful up to a point. The amounts I give her on a spoon are minuscule, and she’s looking for more so she makes faces, but I think she’s choking. Thankfully my daughter is not the same and has no fear in giving her proper spoonfuls. Any time I’ve been left to feed her on my own, I’ve ended up in tears while doing it, and I don’t want the baby growing up with this complex around food. I wouldn’t wish it on anyone. Reply Christina McCallum says August 5, 2019 at 5:46 am I suffer terribly with this fear. I’ve had this debilitating intense fear off and on since I was around 10 years old. One day during a weekend family drive I choked on piece of gum. I recall the incident vividly. My girlfriend, who enjoyed coming along for the drives, was leaning back in one of the vans captain chairs, giggling and being a goof. To join along in the fun, I leaned my seat back and began laughing without considering the danger of the piece of gum in my mouth. Once the gum lodged I immediately could not breath. Frantically I got up and headed to the front of the van to alert my grandparents. I remember my grandmas face of panic. We were in the middle of nowhere taking in country views, not a house or business within miles, so of course she didn’t know how to save me, I was a goner. But she still just stared at me and thats when I knew she couldn’t help. All of a sudden with a huge breath the gum dislodged. I’m assuming it went into my lungs if it was stuck in my windpipe. I didn’t feel as if I swallowed it. Anyhow, I could breathe! After that day, I have never been the same. It’s so strange because I’ll go through periods were I can eat just fine. Something will happen, not sure what, and I feel as if I choke on my food, or I can feel it in my throat, or I forgot how to chew and swallow. It’s ridiculous. I’ve been married 15 years. My husband loves food and we have never gone out on a dinner date because of me and my fear. He’s so good to me and does everything to help me stay healthy. He blends my foods on my very bad days. I wish this would just go away. Have had 2 very bad weeks. Lost about 8 pounds and consistently suffer with the feeling of something in my throat. Reply Jennifer Curry says September 19, 2019 at 5:09 am I too suffer from a fear of choking. I have trouble with food coming back up or getting stuck in my throat to where I have to force it up. I am curious, when you do eat food, do you ever feel as though the food is stuck in your throat and you have to force yourself to get it out? Or suffer from regurgitating food? Thanks in advance. Reply Kendall Anfield says September 26, 2019 at 4:05 am Hi Jennifer, I am 18 years old and currently in college. I relapsed last Summer and have struggled with eating my first few weeks. I’ve been losing a lot of weight because of this. I understand this feeling and experience is almost every time I eat. When I gain the courage to eat, I feel like there is food lodged in my throat. Because of this I will clear my throat often, force myself to throw up, and try and push it up with my throat. I’ve gone through the barium swallows and the eating specialist but it always seems to follow me. I try and tell myself I’m fine and that there is nothing there, but this lump feeling lasts for days on end sometimes. Reply jay says May 29, 2019 at 12:54 pm I choked on fried brown sugar ham when I was 15. Now 31 I still don’t eat meats etc unless it’s potted meat, tomato soup, pudding, ice cream, instant mashed potatoes and that’s about it for me and I have been told I’m gonna die young, my life sucks! Reply Christina McCallum says August 5, 2019 at 5:53 am Hi Jay, I’m so sorry to hear that. I suffer along with you. Mine comes in waves. I just began an episode 2 weeks ago. I feel like im choking on everything. It’s so absurd. I know people eat everyday and many times a day with no issues, yet I panic when simply drinking juice. Have you tried looking up nutritional recipes that can be put into a blender or food processor? How about seeking a medical professional? I haven’t yet but want to. Reply Seth Needham says July 10, 2020 at 9:27 pm Hello I’m Seth. I just went to a pediatrician about this. Overall I think we all agree it’s just a fear, however, I’ve been going through this for the past three days and I’m happy to report that nothing is blocking my airways and I hate to say it but the only way you can get over it alone is to just say “screw fear” and just eat and trust me, knowing what it’s like I know it’s hard, but it’s the only way that you will get through this. It isn’t new to me, I experienced it in the 5th grade and I got over it by just eating. If you want to talk to a medical professional about it that’s fine and you should feel no shame in asking about it. Reply Yasmeen says February 8, 2019 at 12:54 pm So, you’ve all got pretty much the same problem, fear of swallowing. I do. But has anyone got any answers what type of help or support works to overcome it? Reply Layla says July 22, 2019 at 2:26 pm When you’re at a restaurant, try to talk to who you’re with and it will take your mind off the fear. It works very well for me. Reply kay says May 10, 2018 at 5:16 pm Hi, 3 months ago I ate and choked on food that was very dry and I panicked. Very rapidly, as in the same day, I avoided food and for the next 7 days had only liquids. I got myself to the doctor the quickest appointment I could get as I know things like this can snowball. He placed me on diazapem for 7 days only and they did make me more relaxed but did not help with my issue. I then started CBT and for the past 3 months this has helped me realise the following: 1. I kept saying I want to be normal again in therapy. GUESS WHAT ? I am normal I am just experiencing some anxiety which I am getting help for. It might take some time. There is no cut off time to get ‘better’ . It will take as long as it takes and thats ok. It’s tough to accept help, for me it was. I wanted to FIX it on my own, I wanted to get back to normal, I wanted to stop being silly and just eat. I was putting so much pressure on myself. Why can’t I do it, whats wrong with me… all negative little digs at myself. I even stupidly said, I want this fixed in 2 weeks as I am going on holiday. It did not happen and of course not so much pressure to FIX to get Normal. Now I see how hard I was on myself how critical. I would never have been so hard on a friend . ever. 2. Go easy on yourself: Be KIND to yourself: stop, breathe and start from the beginning. Step one, just forget about food for a minute, have you got your vitamins and minerals, are you drinking enough water. Get juices, soups, water, shakes. if you need to go on liquid for a little bit, that’s fine, relax. Get your vits and mins first. If your body starts to flag because you are missing vitamins and minerals then your body will feel tired, down and you will feel upset, ill. Now that does not help this situation does it ?!! 3. DO not let it overtake your life. It’s ok so say, I have a problem right now. It affects my eating. It’s ok. It will not stop me doing other things in life, I can still go out, still see friends, still work. When it first happened I felt like I could not do or go anywhere which is silly…. of course you can. When I could eat freely I did not walk around stuffing my face with food 24/7. So stop focusing the whole day on your fear. You should eat XXX calories, you should eat XXX times a day. You can still do this maybe in liquid form for a few days / weeks. Do not let your fear overtake your whole life its just one aspect that is unpleasant but its not your whole life. Your eating issue is not YOU, you are a full and complex person, you like to read XX books and listen to XX music, you like going to the cinema, you like seeing friends, you like watching tv you like looking at birds in the garden. This issue is not YOU. This is a food anxiety issue that’s happening right now and you will deal with it and get it sorted but do not let it rule you. 4. Think about your issue for a maximum of 10 minutes in the hour and build down to 5 mins and so on. These issues have a tendency to overtake the whole hours thinking. If you can limit your worry, fear, anxiety about this issue to 10 mins in each hour. Write down your fear and then after 10 mins, get up and say, ENOUGH NOW. I will come back to this but for now, enough. Then do something watch tv, sing a song, see a friend, call someone. make the bed, clean the shower.. whatever it is. Re route your mind to another aspect of life. 5. Lincoln said I move slowly but I never go backwards – or something like this… small, tiny steps in the right direction. Whats a tiny step ? how about the first step making sure you have your calories and vitamins. Think about how you can achieve this. 6. Get your mind off the issue you are experiencing, as said before YOU ARE NOT YOUR ANXIETY. You need to start to get your life back , write a list of the things you wish to do, like see a friend and any issues you might have with this, what if she offers me a drink or something to eat. Work out what these situations might bring up and how you can go about sorting them. For example you meet a friend she suggests coffee, you say instead, how about a little walk I can do with moving a bit more. its not about avoidance, these are steps to start re focusing your mind on other aspects of your life. CBT or other therapy can help with your swallowing issues but you can drive your own life too. Get your vitamins, get your minerals, get your water, don’t put your life on hold. 3 months on, things are getting better I can write a whole list of food I can swallow – yes I have a whole list I cannot but it’s ok. I dont have a time limit. It might take me a year who knows.. longer. I am getting my vitamins and living my life. I have made adjustments and I am at times sad I am not eating a big pepperoni pizza, but its ok…. I might one day or I might not…. but I am not just pepperoni pizza, I am so much more than that ! Reply Louis Salera says March 30, 2020 at 4:18 pm Well put Kay. I choked on a pill last week and now I’m afraid to eat solids. It’s tough. Reply Amber says June 20, 2020 at 4:34 am I have this same issue. I’ve been dealing with it for five long years. This is absolutely the very best post I’ve seen. Thank you for your insight, your words of encouragement. Reply S says August 6, 2021 at 2:39 pm Thank you for this, I’m currently going through the fear of swallowing but this really helped to read – especially the first point of just wanting to be “normal”, my OCD and anxiety make it very hard for me to accept that I am just that at times. Hope you are doing much better these days. Reply david says March 24, 2018 at 7:14 pm i am 63 now have had this problem since i was 26. got choked at a dinner and had to have the the heimlich maneuver performed, was fine afterward, i went about a year and a half and kind of got choked on a glass of milk and the fear of choking started from that point on. will not eat steak, afraid of swallowing pills, The food i eat has to be chewed very well. eventually got better with some depression medicines. still eat very slow, can eat hamburgers and chicken is best for me, I can chew it to the consistency i like before swallowing. i was coping in my own way the past few years. i have battled poor teeth for years, i was always afraid dentures would be a problem. just had what was left of my upper teeth pulled and have a new upper denture, the choking fear is back in full force in just two days, the denture covers the top of your mouth and the sensation throws off my swallowing routine, feels like i am gulping and that triggers my choking fear. will go to MD and get some medication hopefully that will help. Sorry you all are going through this, i know how it makes you feel about yourself. Reply Thomas gammell says October 24, 2017 at 10:54 pm I have read all your comments and I am amazed that other people have this situation as well as I have had and it has given me anxiety around food. I am looking into alternative medications to use. I am just about to start a probiotic drink called kefire. I will let everyone know how I get on it affects the good bacteria in the stomach which means more quality serotonin and good flora works from the large amount of serotonin on the brain up the vagus nerve from the stomach to the brain. Reply peggy says September 26, 2017 at 3:05 am wow this is amazing i thought i was the only one with this problem! was looking up on swallowing phobias kept scrolling down and then people came up with the same problem! i choked on my supper of crackers and cheese when i was 15 couldn’t eat the rest and that was the start i eat one meal a day, i know this sounds disgusting but sometimes i find it a problem to swallow my salavia losts so much weight! fed up with it all! i wish all on here well Reply Sadaf says November 27, 2018 at 9:32 pm I have this problem too. It’s been 9 years that i have had this damn sickness and i just realized that i can’t handle it myself. So i went to see a doctor today. He wrote me some pills and 10 sessions of TMS. Please tell me if anyone has had such therapy and was it useful or not? I really need help i’m so afraid of TMS and what’s going to happen to me after that. Reply John says September 25, 2017 at 12:22 pm A month ago while I was eating my dinner I choked on it and again same happened while I was eating breakfast next dinner that makes me anxious as hell ..I went to a doctor and he said I have bacterial infection ..though infection subsided after 10 days but my fear of choking still persist ..I could not eat outside my home or without water beside me as i fear I will choke on it .. Reply JustinK says September 6, 2017 at 6:21 am The fear of choking, I believe I’ve had since about late 2015. I really thought I was the only one with this problem. Growing up, I’ve got addicted to energy drinks, middle school days at the age of 13; drinking at least 1–4 a day. Red Bull, rockstar, full throttle, and the high sugar/caffeinated Mountain Dew and any sweet drink I can get to. I started my morning with an 8oz red bull before anything. Speeding up my point. I “ruined” my heart for a short duration leading me with anxiety because of the drugs of: Caffiene, Gaurana, Taurine— inside of the energy drinks. My heart recovered, I testify that in Jesus’ name, amen. The fear of death caused me to go to a higher power, who/what and such can deliever me from death— Jesus Christ. Don’t worry, I’m not going all out on that stage, yet I am a firm strong believer and follower… For years I’ve denied I’ve had anxiety, anxiety of… not making it to Heaven, having a fear of death (overcomed), I deny anxiety because I personally know it’s not for me, it should’ve be with and for me ??? It’s confusing to me because my denial— only piled up to show me what I should’ve felt with in the meantime. Denial caught up to me. I’ve grown up, and guess what anxiety grew with me… let’s put it as, I chose not to check what was wrong with my truck. I chose not to change my oil, I didn’t want to check what was wrong because I had to deal with it at such an age. And the damage eventually caught up to me ? I have a fear of choking. It’s something I’ve kept to myself. My family doesn’t know about it. My close friends do not know about it. Even if I still had a girlfriend, I’m not sure if I’d talk to her about this. I haven’t told anybody until I have seen, I’m not the only one dealing with this. Anybody who’s confessed before me, I believed I was the only one dealing with such destruction. As I know I’m not alone. Anybody isn’t alone with this, and anybody to read these testimonies and confessions and cry for help with [anxiety]. I’m 20 years old, and since it’s time to grow up. And be a man. I chose to face these problems. I chose to go for help. And testify that it will not overcome me, my relationship with my family and friends and future loved ones. I will enjoy eating tough foods, I will enjoy having a (careful) mouth–full of Taco Bell, delicious pizza, homemade steaks. I will enjoy dinner out eating, birthdays, and morning breakfast. You will too! Thank you to anyone before me, showing me I’m not alone. And I can and I will overcome anxiety. And fears. God Almighty richly bless you all. Reply Sarah says March 23, 2017 at 3:20 am My mother has always had a very bad fear of choking, and now that i have a son, she has become worse. There has never been one day that I didn’t go to her house and hear her say the piece of food i put in his mouth was too big, or stringy or tough. She only trusts herself to feed him. I give him normal sized bites for a child his age and would never put my child in danger of choking. Her anxiety is now ruining our relationship, and I feel its better off i dont go see her anymore, until she realizes she has a problem. She has anxiety in general, but this just happens to be the worst one because she involves everyone. Reply Michael says July 24, 2017 at 10:27 pm It is appropriate not to let your mother be around when feeding your child as children often feels what the adults are feeling. she has a problem as noted above and needs professional help. If there is no physical problem with swallowing then it is due to anxiety etc. Hope this helps.. Reply Tonya says February 17, 2017 at 4:10 am About 6 weeks ago, I was driving and eating a burger on the go. I went to swallow and choked. I nearly wrecked my car and by the time I got pulled over and beat on my tummy to get it up, I was seeing stars. It was terrifying and I’m crying even now as I write this. About a week ago, I was eating dinner and all of this came rushing back. I couldn’t swallow my food because it kept replaying over and over in my head. Now I’m stuck on liquid and very soft foods. I can’t seem to swallow more solid foods because I’m scared of choking again. How can I get through this? Will it eventually go away? Reply firingamygdala says August 1, 2017 at 5:06 am hey tonya? how are you feeling today? don’t worry it will return to normal soon as your anxiety improves. I’ve been there for years, I’ve been struggling with this phobia for several years and I could not find help from the experts because there is nothing wrong with me. no organic problems are present and everything is perfect but what I have learned is how powerful phobia and our mind could be. you are perfectly capable of swallowing, but the problem is your amygdala where stress and fear generates. what helps me so much is the mindfulness meditation, relaxation, exercise and desensitization therapy, slowly I was able to regain the control of my swallowing again and returned to normal life. it requires patience, discipline, focus and determination and it takes several days or weeks to notice improvements to what you’ve been doing. God is in sovereign control. God bless Reply Ellie says September 13, 2017 at 2:44 am Hello, I feel so encouraged of your response to Tonya. I choked about a month ago and now have eaten nothing but liquids too. Would you mind emailing me so we can email each other. I too am Christian. Reply Louise Glazer says September 5, 2018 at 8:51 pm Could you email me too. Reply Jenny D says August 27, 2018 at 11:09 pm This sounds just like me. I have been on a soft food diet and liquids only for about 8 months I choked so bad on fried rice at the top of my throat felt like there was a golf ball and nothing would come up when I tried to vomit to force it up and nothing would go down. I now have an intense fear of choking so I don’t even try solid foods. Are you still working on overcoming your fears or what has helped you so far? Reply angie says January 2, 2017 at 10:30 pm It’s crazy how many people actually have this fear I had it for a while and it’s getting really really bad right now and I only put baby pieces in my mouth so it takes me like an hour to eat my dinner. And sometimes I still have to spit it out thinking that it’s too big thinking I’m going to choke People thought I was crazy for having this fear makes me not want to eat or not eat around other people . It started a year and 1/2 ago and I don’t know why . Good thing about it I lost a lot of weight bad thing I have no energy cant even get out of bed sometimes maybe because lack of vitamins are nutrients I dont know if anybody has some tips or anything that can please help let me know thanks.. Reply Kate says January 28, 2017 at 6:17 am A couple of weeks ago I swallowed a piece of semi UN-chewed steak and thought it was stuck in my throat and felt I was going to die choking. I thought I could still feel the steak lodged in my throat 30 minutes later and panicked. Following this incident I fear choking on solid foods. I resorted to mainly soft foods such as baby foods and ice cream. I eat very similar to Angie. Tips for Angie: get a vitamin drink mix. I drink the Trader Joe’s green drink mix. Drink coconut water and various juices. I looked up foods for people who can’t chew and found a lot of resources and ideas. I personally like yogurt, applesauce, soups, cottage cheese and ice cream. Do you remember why this started? Reply Grisel Vega says April 2, 2016 at 7:53 pm Hi my name is Grisel Vega and I have a fear of choking and I want to know how do I get rid of this phobia the only thing I eat is mash potatoes and oatmeal all day and I really want to eat food but I’m afraid, how do I start getting rid of this phobia? Reply Allison says September 11, 2016 at 3:01 am I have suffered the same thing all of my life and have times when it gets really bad. The thing that helps me is to have someone talk me through objectively how you swallow. I then do a mental checklist to make sure that everything is okay. It is a slow process to recovery but slowly start to add things back into to your diet. For me tomato soup, yogurt and smoothies were the way I got nutrients back in. Reply Patrick says August 27, 2019 at 6:42 am I have suffered with this fear since I was 11 years old. I saw my mom choke on a piece of steak when I was 9, and two years later I choked on an ice cube at a friends house. The problem didn’t occur until after that, though. I remember eating popcorn in the movie theater and feeling like a piece was stuck in my throat. I didn’t choke but it scared the crap out of me. As soon as I got home that night, I realized I was having a very difficult time swallowing anything. I’m now 34 years old and have lived with it ever since. I have to say that it fluctuates. I have a very good appetite and most of the time will be able to eat big meals to completion. There is never a moment though, when I am not completely aware of the fact that I have food in my mouth that will need to eventually be swallowed. It never leaves my mind. Today, for example, it’s been acting up. I was able to eat two chicken cutlets for dinner but it was a struggle. I chewed and chewed and chewed and even resorted to swishing water around in my mouth to help me swallow. Most of the time it’s not that bad, but I have my triggers for sure. I very rarely eat steak, if ever. Seeing someone choking on tv terrifies me and even seeing pictures of people choking scares the living crap out of me. It’s a terrible, terrible fear. The one thing that I can say is that my “swallowing problem” as I like to call it does not define who I am. This past weekend I ate a huge breakfast with bacon, sausage, eggs, toast, the whole nine yards. Yes, I was aware that I was chewing and needed to swallow, but when I get the food to be sufficiently wet and liquid-y, I swallow. I’m always the last person at the table to finish, but, man… it feels good to finish. I want to tell all of you how much I love that I am not alone in this. From the bottom of my heart I know exactly what all of you are going through. I sincerely hope that all of you are able to cope and live with this in a way where you can still enjoy the amazing food out there in your own way. I don’t think this will ever go away for any of us, but believe me when I say that it can get better. God bless all of you. Reply Graham says August 19, 2015 at 8:58 pm I’ve suffered with various anxieties since my late teens over 20 years ago. A fear of choking started about 7 years ago, and became very bad after a wisdom tooth extraction. It eventually went, though I don’t quite know why. I’ve had reoccurrences of the problem, and it has been very bad recently again following a dental procedure (though the problem I think has come from trying to swallow pills for pain relief and not the dental process itself). But today I appear to have turned a corner. I’ve done much research on this issue, and what seems to be working for me is to ensure my mouth is closed when I’m trying to swallow, and to press my tongue against the roof of my mouth just above my teeth. My problem is sometimes taking a breath when swallowing, particularly when drinking, so closing my mouth is obviously helping and the tongue pressing appears to help the swallowing process. In fact I think I have a problem with mouth breathing in general (i.e. my mouth is always slightly open and I’m often breathing through it rather than through my nose). So I’m trying to make a conscious effort to breathe nasally all the time (i.e. just breathing through my nose) which is also having a calming effect on me overall. Interesting I have mild sleep apnea, and GERD, which I’ve read can also be caused by mouth breathing. Anyway, if you’re suffering from a fear of choking, liquids were my worst thing, do try the above technique. Reply Bobbi says July 23, 2015 at 5:41 am Ever since I was little, I have battled common anxieties. When I was younger, around 6 or 7, I had to choke down huge horse pills, and it gave me anxiety of choking. I couldn’t hardly eat for months. It eventually went away and I didn’t have any problems until about 6 years later. For an entire year, from the time I woke up and even sometimes in my sleep I was short of breath. My throat was always tight. This eventually lead to social anxiety for fear that people could tell I was having a panic attack and wouldn’t understand. Again, this too subsided and I went on living a normal life. Here within the past month I had my first attack in 4 years. While driving home in a storm. This caused me to associate my attacks with driving. Obviously I have to drive to get back to school and work, so I had to drive and easily learned to manage. Here sitting at a restaurant last week, I had a panic attack out of the blue while eating dinner out with my family. I took a bite, my mouth got dry, and numb. It felt like my tongue was swelling, and I couldn’t swallow so I had to spit it out. My heart was racing and my extremities were shaking and tingling. Once we left the restaurant, the attack went away. Later that night I went to the kitchen to get a snack, but once again, I was hit with another attack while eating. Ever since then I have gotten an attack every time I try to eat. It’s embarrassing and I worry I will still have this problem next week when I have to go out of town for a conference. Does anyone have any pointers on how to deal with this or someone who is going through what I’m going through? Reply Gracie says December 25, 2015 at 3:56 am Hey, I am going through something similar, where I have a fear of swallowing and it usually gets worse around other people because I am afraid they will be able to tell that I’m struggling to swallow. I have had this for a couple of years now ,and I find that I have labeled certain foods as “safe” in my head ( soups, ice cream, yogurt, pureed foods etc). Whenever I go out, I order things that are very mushy or drenched in gravy, so it’s a bit easier to swallow. I also tried meditation techniques and eft tapping, and I have had several weeks where I had this phobia almost completely under control. It’s definitely anxiety-based, so the weeks where I am under the most stress tend to be the ones where it’s most difficult to swallow. So, I always keep things like nutrition shakes around to keep my weight up. Hope things get better! Reply Cheryl says April 25, 2017 at 1:56 am I am going through the same thing. Reply Cheryl says May 6, 2017 at 7:39 pm I am also dealing with this. It’s been two years and I’ve come a long way. Reply marjorie prusiecki says June 25, 2015 at 8:14 pm A friend of mine can’t swallow liquids for fear of chocking, she has been to every place possible over the years and was told it’s all in her head. It’s getting worse, she did almost choke when she was little but never had problems until about 8 yrs ago. She is now in her mid 60s, what is this problem called? Reply Nina says June 16, 2015 at 10:23 pm I have choked earlier in my life and it did not scare me. Just about a week or 2 ago I slightly choked on a piece of steak. Ever since, I have had this fear of choking. My mouth gets dry when I eat and I freak out and tense up which makes swallowing even harder. Even taking small pieces doesn’t help. I don’t know how to get over this. Please help with any suggestions as possible. Reply Rochelle says June 14, 2015 at 2:28 pm My problem started with an absessed tooth that basically turned into blood poisoning. To make a long story short, I went to the ER and they put me on antibiotics and that seemed to help so they sent me home. Well shortly after, while sleeping, I was awakened by a horrific cough and was gagging and spitting up clear stuff. The doctor said my airway was clear. A few days later I got Laryngitis and the feeling that something is always in the throat. I have also been to the ENT and he prescribed me a cough medicine and said my airways was fine and I should feel better in a few days. I am also on an antibiotic for the tooth. I cannot get the tooth worked on until I can feel like I don’t have something in my throat. I have lost a good deal of weight. I drink a lot of water and about the only thing I can seem to get down is chicken broth. This is very unnerving. I want to feel normal again. Pls help. Any suggestions.
0.986069	We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you've consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. You can unsubscribe at any time. More info Thank you for subscribingWe have more newslettersShow meSee ourprivacy notice A driver was injured after their car careered into a house and two cars last night in Wokingham. The Peugeot being driven down Budge's Road, Norreys Estate in Wokingham hit two parked cars before going off road and crashing into a house. The incident happened at around 10.30pm last night, Tuesday, November 10 and all three emergency services were called to the scene. The driver suffered minor injuries which she was treated on the scene for by the ambulance service, while fire and police officers managed the scene and made the area safe. Fortunately, the damage to the house was minor only slight damage to the drainpipe. The homeowner was assessed by the ambulance services at the scene but did not require any further treatment. The two cars involved were reported to have been written off by the crash. More updates to follow. Follow BerkshireLive FacebookTwitter Comment More On Wokingham News all Most Read Most Recent Wokingham Borough Council'Garden village' south of Reading could see 4,500 homes built Land between the motorway, Shinfield, Arborfield and Sindlesham has been allocated for a huge development in Wokingham Borough Council's latest local plan Newbury's St Bartholemew's School celebrates 'outstanding' Ofsted report EducationThe school was deemed 'outstanding in all areas' and is one of the only schools in the country to achieve the accolade this year Berkshire's Covid hotspots as Omicron variant is found in neighbouring county CoronavirusThe variant has been found in an area of Buckinghamshire, but has yet to reach Berkshire. However, the rates some parts of Berkshire are very high Controversial new Lidl in Lower Earley plans set to go before Wokingham Borough Council Lower EarleyHundreds of people have objected to the Meldreth Way plans - with planning officers now recommending the scheme be thrown out The criminals locked up in Berkshire in November 2021 CrimeA man who shook his baby to death, drug dealers, paedophiles and dangerous drivers have all been put behind bars at Reading Crown court this month CoronavirusBerkshire's Covid hotspots as Omicron variant is found in neighbouring countyThe variant has been found in an area of Buckinghamshire, but has yet to reach Berkshire. However, the rates some parts of Berkshire are very high Controversial new Lidl in Lower Earley plans set to go before Wokingham Borough Council Lower EarleyHundreds of people have objected to the Meldreth Way plans - with planning officers now recommending the scheme be thrown out 'Garden village' south of Reading could see 4,500 homes built Wokingham Borough CouncilLand between the motorway, Shinfield, Arborfield and Sindlesham has been allocated for a huge development in Wokingham Borough Council's latest local plan Newbury's St Bartholemew's School celebrates 'outstanding' Ofsted report EducationThe school was deemed 'outstanding in all areas' and is one of the only schools in the country to achieve the accolade this year Red List: Heathrow Airport reopens Terminal 4 for arrivals from countries on UK Government travel list Traffic and Travel10 countries have been placed on the resurrected Red List following the rise of the Omicron coronavirus - with passengers arriving from those countries required to quarantine Most Read Most Recent Wokingham Borough Council'Garden village' south of Reading could see 4,500 homes built Land between the motorway, Shinfield, Arborfield and Sindlesham has been allocated for a huge development in Wokingham Borough Council's latest local plan Heathrow Airport: Countries with Omicron cases and travel rules for visiting them explained Heathrow AirportAs of Wednesday, December 1, the Omicron variant has been identified in 24 countries around the world and some countries have returned to a national lockdown Heathrow Airport: Philippines red list islands you can't travel to Traffic and TravelThe UK is currently on the Philippines' yellow list Heathrow Airport travellers to see cancellations as countries tighten restrictions amid Omicron variant Traffic and TravelSpain, Switzerland, Morocco, Israel and Portugal are all tightening their borders due to the new variant found in South Africa Newbury's St Bartholemew's School celebrates 'outstanding' Ofsted report EducationThe school was deemed 'outstanding in all areas' and is one of the only schools in the country to achieve the accolade this year CoronavirusBerkshire's Covid hotspots as Omicron variant is found in neighbouring countyThe variant has been found in an area of Buckinghamshire, but has yet to reach Berkshire. However, the rates some parts of Berkshire are very high Heathrow Airport PCR tests: ExpressTest company behind day-2 testing at Heathrow Traffic and TravelFollowing detection of the Omicron variant in the UK, the government announced that mandatory PCR testing is back for anyone entering England Reading FC's Chelsea loanee among Championship team of the month plus Fulham and West Brom stars Danny DrinkwaterReading FC's loan midfielder from Chelsea Danny Drinkwater has been rewarded for some fine performances by being named in the Championship Team of the Month for November Hoilett, Yiadom and Moore - Latest Reading FC injury news ahead of Hull City clash Reading FCReading FC injury news in full as Royals gear up for the visit of Hull City to the Select Car Leasing Stadium on Saturday afternoon in the Championship (3pm kick-off) Heathrow Airport: Countries with Omicron cases and travel rules for visiting them explained Heathrow AirportAs of Wednesday, December 1, the Omicron variant has been identified in 24 countries around the world and some countries have returned to a national lockdown Top Stories The faces of the criminals locked up in Berkshire in November CrimeA man who shook his baby to death, drug dealers, paedophiles and dangerous drivers have all been put behind bars at Reading Crown court this month Reading FC's Chelsea loanee among Championship team of the month plus Fulham and West Brom stars Danny DrinkwaterReading FC's loan midfielder from Chelsea Danny Drinkwater has been rewarded for some fine performances by being named in the Championship Team of the Month for November First look inside Reading's new cocktail bar ReadingThe new bar has opened in Gun Street with the goal of being a 'bartenders' paradise' I went to Slough to see if people were wearing face masks in shops CoronavirusIt is now mandatory to wear face coverings in shops and on public transport Met Office warning as freezing temperatures on the way WeatherThe Met Office has warned of slippy roads, and potentially snow, across the west of the UK, including Newbury, Hungerford and Thatcham Hoilett, Yiadom and Moore - Latest Reading FC injury news ahead of Hull City clash Reading FCReading FC injury news in full as Royals gear up for the visit of Hull City to the Select Car Leasing Stadium on Saturday afternoon in the Championship (3pm kick-off) ExpressTest: The company providing PCR tests at Heathrow Traffic and TravelFollowing detection of the Omicron variant in the UK, the government announced that mandatory PCR testing is back for anyone entering England Three day Victorian Christmas market coming to Berkshire ChristmasExpect a town crier, penny-farthing, gin bar alley and even Victorian pick pocketers at this three day event Dedicated red list terminal reopens at Heathrow Airport Traffic and Travel10 countries have been placed on the resurrected Red List following the rise of the Omicron coronavirus - with passengers arriving from those countries required to quarantine Huge housing scheme prompts further protests RBWMMore than 2,000 new homes could be built at Maidenhead Golf Course Booster shortage sees people forced to travel to Oxford for jabs CoronavirusPeople in parts of Berkshire are keen to get their latest vaccines, but are struggling to find convenient appointments Free parking in four Berkshire towns and villages for Christmas Traffic and TravelFind out which council-owned car parks are involved and when they will be free of charge
0.999988	Global Communities’ Lana Abu-Hijleh Named a McNulty Prize Laureate for the Second Time for Her Work on Youth Local Councils \| Global Communities About Us Careers Translate English French Spanish Arabic COVID-19 Our Impact Overview Annual Reports Awards Interactive Content Whitepapers Financials 990s Where We Work Africa Ghana Kenya Liberia Malawi Rwanda Tanzania DRC Zambia Europe & Asia Romania Ukraine Sri Lanka Kosovo Middle East Egypt Iraq Jordan Lebanon Syria Turkey West Bank/Gaza Yemen The Americas Brazil Colombia Haiti Honduras Nicaragua United States Argentina Our Expertise Meet Our Experts Economic Development Governance & Urban Management Financial Inclusion Humanitarian Assistance Food Security & Agriculture Global Health Civil Society & Capacity Development Infrastructure & Construction Working With Women & Youth Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) News & Resources Global Voices Donate Global Communities’ Lana Abu-Hijleh Named a McNulty Prize Laureate for the Second Time for Her Work on Youth Local Councils August 8th, 2017 Global Communities’ Lana Abu-Hijleh Named a McNulty Prize Laureate for the Second Time for Her Work on Youth Local Councils Across the Globe Silver Spring, MD, August 8, 2017 Global Communities Palestine Country Director, Lana Abu-Hijleh, has been announced as a Laureate for the 10th annual John P. McNulty Prize for her work helping youth in Palestine and Honduras on youth local councils. Abu-Hijleh is one of the four 2017 Laureates who were named on July 29th at the Resnick Aspen Action Forum. Laureates will receive $25,000 toward their project, and the winner, to be announced in November, will receive $100,000. This is Abu-Hijleh’s second time as a McNulty Prize Laureate; she previously received this recognition in 2014. Lana Abu-Hijleh is being honored for her work creating and spreading the idea of youth local councils (YLCs). YLCs, originally developed as part of a USAID-funded local governance program in the West Bank, are a democratically elected body of youth who can voice their needs and help bridge the gap between local government and this important demographic. Abu-Hijleh saw firsthand the success of these councils, with 20 established since 2008, not only giving youth a voice in matters that concern them, but also helping foster democratic norms in a region where elections are few and far between. Even after the local governance program ended, these YLCs still operate to this day, with a further 20 independently establishing themselves, a testament to the model’s sustainability. With Abu-Hijleh as a champion, after winning a Global Communities-hosted competition for the most innovative, impactful idea, the YLC program was expanded into Honduras, taking the lessons learned about and applying them in a new environment. While the countries have different challenges, with Honduras facing high rates of gang violence and human trafficking, and not the risk of radicalization like in the West Bank, both programs have the same goals of strengthening democratic norms and ultimately helping to address some of the challenges faced by youth. Lana Abu-Hijleh says: “I thank the McNulty Foundation again for this recognition. But while I am humbled and honored, it is the young people participating in these councils across the world that deserve most to be honored. This is recognition for the youth out there for their resilience, for their willingness to act to make this world a better one. To the youth of Palestine and the youth of Honduras – our hope is in you; lead us to a better world.” David A. Weiss, President and CEO of Global Communities says: “From Baghdad to Bangalore, Nairobi to Sao Paulo, the world is going to be shaped by a demographic shift as more and more young people come into their own and enter into the workforce and political life. Ensuring that youth have a voice and learn the importance of good governance is vital to ensuring stability and creating lasting solutions to some of the problems that challenge countries around the world. Youth Local Councils can help give young people voice and agency, as we have seen in both the West Bank and Honduras and hope to see soon in more countries. We could not be more proud of Lana for this recognition, and we recognize the teams of dedicated professionals in both countries who support this program, the partners who make it possible and, of course, every single young person who has taken part in helping build a better future for their countries in the Youth Local Councils.” To learn more about Youth Local Councils visit: https://www.globalcommunities.org/yslc To learn more about the McNulty Prize and the Laureates visit: https://www.aspeninstitute.org/blog-posts/2017-mcnulty-prize-laureates-announced/ To watch the announcement ceremony visit: https://youtu.be/41oecURE9Dk About Lana Abu-Hijleh: Lana Abu-Hijleh is a longtime expert in Palestinian development. She has been working for the past 28 years with international development and humanitarian agencies in Palestine and the region. Since 2003, Lana has been the Country Director of Global Communities (formerly CHF International) for Palestine. She recently led a team of 200 Palestinian and international professionals designing and implementing assistance programs focusing on economic revitalization, community and social infrastructure, democracy/governance, job creation, and food security in the West Bank and Gaza. Prior to her work with Global Communities, Lana served as the Deputy Resident Representative of the UNDP Program of Assistance to the Palestinian People for over 17 years. About Global Communities: Global Communities is a global non-profit organization founded in 1952 that works closely with communities worldwide to bring about sustainable changes that improve the lives and livelihoods of the vulnerable. Global Communities believes that the people who understand their needs best are the people of the community itself. Global Communities has worked in the West Bank and Gaza since 1995. Learn more at www.globalcommunities.org and @G_Communities. About The John P. McNulty Prize: Founded by Anne Welsh McNulty in honor of her late husband John, the McNulty Prize celebrates the boldness and impact of individuals who are using their exceptional leadership abilities, entrepreneurial spirit and private sector talents to address the world's toughest challenges. Each year, the winner is selected by a jury that has previously included Mary Robinson, Bill Gates, Sr. and Sir Richard Branson. The winner receives $100,000 and each Laureate receives $25,000 to further his or her venture. The Prize is given in partnership with the Aspen Institute, and recognizes exceptional leadership ventures undertaken by Fellows of the Aspen Global Leadership Network. For more information, visit www.mcnultyprize.org. Follow @McNultyPrize on Twitter and join the conversation using #McNultyPrize. Region: Ukraine, Honduras, West Bank/Gaza Area of expertise: Civil Society & Capacity Development Related Articles Bank of Palestine launches “Palestine in the Heart” campaign in support of Humanitarian Relief efforts in Gaza & West Bank
0.987952	Afghan doctors accuse World Bank contractor of fleeing the country with their salaries - IBTimes India Home News Business J&K Technology Science Sports Entertainment Auto Photos Video Search Search Home Society Afghan doctors left without salaries, accuse World Bank contractor of fleeing the country with booty The protestors said that not only were their wages unpaid but that clinics in their areas lacked medications. By IANS October 11, 2021 12:48 IST Close Taliban brazenly parades car bombs, suicide vests that killed thousands of Afghans Hundreds of male and female doctors from the Afghan provinces of Samangan and Nuristan provinces gathered at the gate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) in Kabul and asked the World Bank to pay their salaries for the past 14 months, Khaama Press reported. The protestors said that not only their salaries have been paid but the clinics in their respective provinces are confronting a dire shortage of medicines. world bank Protestors accused an Afghan contractor of World Bank - Asad Fayaz - who has fled Afghanistan and has taken money from World Bank but doctors have not been paid. They said that Fayaz had a two-year health contract in the provinces and was providing health services, medicines, and salaries of doctors. "Asad Fayaz has fled Afghanistan and stole our money. He was leading a corrupt firm and that caused an increase in the mortality of children and mothers in Samangan and Nuristan provinces," said a protestor, the report said. The doctors, in a statement, said that since the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has no relations with the World Bank and cannot ask for money, the bank should directly pay their money through Afghanistan's Health Ministry or other NGOs. In the meantime, the doctors warned of continuation of protests in case their salaries are not paid. Also Read UN representative talks women and peace at Taliban's all-male foreign ambassadors meet "Stop following American styles"; Taliban bans hairdressers from shaving, trimming beards [details] Why has Pakistan replaced its ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed? Afghanistan Trending now K'taka Cong leader, 9 others served notice for conspiring to kill BJP MLA [details] London woman wins millions suing doctor for her birth 20 years ago [details] Illegal adoption of Covid orphans: NGO sealed, 2 arrested in J&K [details] Advertisement MOST POPULAR 6 travellers from "At Risk" countries test positive for Covid-19; Airports on high alert Schools in Delhi shut down due to pollution after 24-hr SC ultimatum Two cases of Omicron detected in India, both in K'taka; Health Ministry says 'no reason to panic' [details] Bengaluru police deny permission to stand-up comedian Kunal Kamra shows Dhanbad town comes together, raises fund of Rs 25L to save seven-month-old baby Security guard tips friends who rob customer returning from Bengaluru gold shop; Swift police response helps
0.988815	Britney Spears' mother, Lynne Spears, has claimed her daughter is doing just "fine" as she fights for her father, Jamie Spears, to be removed as her co-conservator. The 39-year-old star is currently in court trying to get certified public accountant (CPA), Jason Rubin, to replace Jamie Spears in the role of controlling her estate and more. And as new court documents obtained by TMZ revealed the singer's mother - who previously "vehemently" objected to the substantial attorney fees Jamie requested in her conservatorship case - supports the removal of her father as co-conservator, Lynne told the news outlet the “Gimme More” hitmaker is doing OK. Documents filed by Britney’s legal team read: “Ms. Spears respectfully submits that the Court should appoint her nominee; in that, it is an objectively intelligent preference to nominate a highly qualified, professional fiduciary in this circumstance. Related video: MORE ON THIS Lance Bass was 'kept away' from Britney Spears Britney Spears 'hopeful' her lawyer will get her out of conservatorship Britney Spears: I'm not even close to finishing criticism of conservatorship “Moreover, Ms. Spears respectfully submits that, given the Court’s recognition at the July 14, 2021, hearing that Ms. Spears has sufficient capacity to choose her own legal counsel, she likewise has sufficient capacity to make this nomination.” According to the paperwork, Britney’s cash assets are listed as $2,730,454.15 and her non-cash assets are valued at $54,666,398.21. And the documents also request that Jason be given authority to manage Britney’s estate and real estate, as well as make health care decisions. The ‘Toxic’ singer’s father is currently in charge of her estate and real estate after he stepped down as her full-time conservator following health problems. Jodi Montgomery handles Britney’s personal affairs including her health care choices, but under the proposed new plan, those decisions would be made by Jason. Britney has been under conservatorship since 2008, and has been in court trying to regain her freedoms since June. This month, she was granted permission to hire her own lawyer after her previous court-appointed attorney quit, and she was also recently given the ability to drive alone for the first time in years. Last month, the “Slumber Party” singer said her conservatorship had left her "traumatised" and "depressed", as she called for her father to be jailed. She said: "They have me going to therapy three times a week and to a psychiatrist. "I truly believe this conservatorship is abusive. I don’t feel like I can live a full life. In the meantime, I want this therapist to come to my home, I’m not willing to go to Westlake ... They set me up by sending me to the most exposed places. I need your help. "My dad and anyone involved in this conservatorship, including my management … they should be in jail."
0.999999	England's forward Marcus Rashford leaves the pitch after their loss in the EURO 2020 final. Facundo Arrizabalaga/AFP England's Marcus Rashford apologises for Euro final penalty miss but won’t tolerate racist abuse By Reuters Jul 13, 2021 Share this article: Share Tweet Share Share Share Email Share England striker Marcus Rashford has said sorry for his penalty miss in the Euro 2020 shootout defeat by Italy in the final at Wembley on Sunday but added he "will never apologise for who I am" after being among three players to suffer racist abuse. Substitutes Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Bukayo Saka all missed spot kicks in the 3-2 shootout loss and were targeted on social media while a mural in Rashford's home town of Withington was defaced before it was covered in messages of support. The racist abuse prompted a police investigation and wide condemnation from England's captain, manager, royalty, religious leaders and politicians. "I can take critique of my performance all day long, my penalty was not good enough, it should have gone in but I will never apologise for who I am and where I came from," the 23-year-old Manchester United forward wrote on Twitter. pic.twitter.com/bs9lksGM4q — Marcus Rashford MBE (@MarcusRashford) July 12, 2021 "I've felt no prouder moment than wearing those three lions on my chest and seeing my family cheer me on in a crowd of 10s of thousands." MORE ON THIS Victorious Italy return to heroes' welcome after England victory FA condemns racist abuse of players after England's Euro 2020 final loss Racial abuse of Marcus Rashford and team-mates is unforgivable, says Gareth Southgate England penalty-takers hit by 'disgusting' racist abuse 'Worst feeling in the world': Harry Kane pain as England lose Euro final on penalties Gianluigi Donnarumma the hero as Italy beat England on penalties to win Euro 2020 final Rashford, who took England's third penalty after captain Harry Kane and defender Harry Maguire had scored, staggered his run up and, though he sent Italy goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma the wrong way, scuffed his spot kick against the post. "I don't even know where to start and I don't even know how to put into words how I'm feeling at this exact time," he added. "I've had a difficult season, I think that's been clear for everyone to see and I probably went into that final with a lack of confidence. ALSO READ: Racial abuse of Marcus Rashford and team-mates is unforgivable, says Gareth Southgate "I've always backed myself for a penalty but something didn't feel quite right. During the long run-up, I was saving myself a bit of time and, unfortunately, the result was not what I wanted. "I felt as though I let my team mates down. I felt as if I'd let everyone down. ALSO READ: 'Worst feeling in the world': Harry Kane pain as England lose Euro final on penalties "A penalty was all I'd been asked to contribute for the team. I can score penalties in my sleep so why not that one? It's been playing in my head over and over since I struck the ball and there's probably not a word to describe how it feels." England were bidding for their first major trophy since they lifted the World Cup at Wembley in 1966 but lost in the shootout after the match finished 1-1 following extra time. "Final. 55 years. 1 penalty. History. All I can say is sorry. I wish it had gone differently. Whilst I continue to say sorry I want to shout out my team mates. This summer has been one of the best camps I've experienced and you've all played a role in that."
0.952854	Modern programming languages, ranging from Haskell and ML, to JavaScript, C# and Java, all make extensive use of higher-order state. This paper advocates a new verification methodology for higher-order stateful programs, based on a new monad of predicate transformers called the Dijkstra monad. Using the Dijkstra monad has a number of benefits. First, the monad naturally yields a weakest pre-condition calculus. Second, the computed specifications are structurally simpler in several ways, e.g., single-state post-conditions are sufficient (rather than the more complex two-state post-conditions). Finally, the monad can easily be varied to handle features like exceptions and heap invariants, while retaining the same type inference algorithm. We implement the Dijkstra monad and its type inference algorithm for the F* programming language. Our most extensive case study evaluates the Dijkstra monad and its F* implementation by using it to verify JavaScript programs. Specifically, we describe a tool chain that translates programs in a subset of JavaScript decorated with assertions and loop invariants to F. Once in F, our type inference algorithm computes verification conditions and automatically discharges their proofs using an SMT solver. We use our tools to prove that a core model of the JavaScript runtime in F* respects various invariants and that a suite of JavaScript source programs are free of runtime errors.
0.999999	Create a blog post subtitle that summarizes your post in a few short, punchy sentences and entices your audience to continue reading. Welcome to your blog post. Use this space to connect with your readers and potential customers in a way that’s current and interesting. Think of it as an ongoing conversation where you can share updates about business, trends, news, and more. “Do you have a design in mind for your blog? Whether you prefer a trendy postcard look or you’re going for a more editorial style blog - there’s a stunning layout for everyone.” You’ll be posting loads of engaging content, so be sure to keep your blog organized with Categories that also allow visitors to explore more of what interests them. Create Relevant Content Writing a blog is a great way to position yourself as an authority in your field and captivate your readers’ attention. Do you want to improve your site’s SEO ranking? Consider topics that focus on relevant keywords and relate back to your website or business. You can also add hashtags (#vacation #dream #summer) throughout your posts to reach more people, and help visitors search for relevant content. Blogging gives your site a voice, so let your business’ personality shine through. Choose a great image to feature in your post or add a video for extra engagement. Are you ready to get started? Simply create a new post now.
0.966415	How do you create a yard that's light years ahead of others? One way is to make the space usable at night. Since many people work or play till long after the sun goes down, they often don't have time to enjoy their backyard until the evening hours. Add outdoor lighting, and your garden is immediately transformed into usable space. "Most people don't realize this, but the backyard is a whole new room that they haven't explored fully," says outdoor lighting designer Michael Sestak. "You have the option to go beyond that light bulb at the doorway." Good lighting can bring Zen-like qualities to any setting. You can rediscover the perimeter of your property, make it fun to entertain and highlight points of interest, such as sculptures or fountains. A recent trend in outdoor lighting is light-emitting diodes, or LEDs. They already light up car dashboards and laptops so why not the backyard? "LED lights are used especially for effect, style and design so the idea is not to try to get a huge amount of light," says Michael. A reflector light, on the other hand, is meant to cast a lot of light. A big difference between LEDs and reflectors is their energy use; the reflector light uses a 35-watt lamp while the LED uses one watt. Most LED lights are also programmable. Low-voltage lighting is another recent trend in outdoor lighting. Most homes use 120 volts of power, while low-voltage lighting uses about 12 volts, eliminating the need for deep trenches that hold the wiring. Low-voltage lights can be used for down-lighting (lighting things underneath the light source) or for up-lighting (lighting things above). Mounting Lights Be careful when mounting lights around the plants. Here, the light was mounted right onto the tree with screws, and, without monitoring, eventually the tree grew around the light fixture. Driving nails or screws into a growing tree causes an injury that triggers a healing response, like scar tissue forming over a wound. Another option for mounting any fixture to a tree is to use a strap device. Straps can be made of cloth or a nylon-type product that has a clip device that can be adjusted over the life of the tree. You can always up-light with on-ground lights and get around the dreaded "glare in the eye" hazard, or try an in-ground light. This type of light can be adjusted to up-light and showcase the structure of a tree. How to Install an In-Ground Light Fixture To place the fixture, dig an 18-inch-deep hole and backfill it about halfway with gravel to enhance drainage around the light. Insert the extra cable into the hole, leaving enough cord length to connect to the power source. Then insert the plastic housing for the light into the hole. Add a few more inches of gravel around the unit to stabilize it. Slide the lamp into the housing; this one has a spring clip for a snug fit. Most lights come with an assortment of lenses to customize the look. For instance, a 45-degree cutoff is an egg-crate louvered device that eliminates glare as you get closer to or farther away from the lens. Insert the lens over the lamp and add a 45-degree cutoff over the lens. Replace the lid and cover the above-ground power cord with mulch. Connect the cord to the power source. Make sure the light is turned on and adjust the light as needed. Note: Consult an electrician for assistance in wiring and installing outdoor lighting systems. Additional Lighting Options Create additional interesting in the evening landscape with artisan lights. They add whimsy and personality to the yard. Use them to light a pathway or illuminate a dining area. For drama and eye-catching appeal, install a spotlight to showcase a sparkling fountain. Small-sized spotlights abound, including the MR-11, the smallest spotlight available. There are even ones designed for underwater lighting. Bring lighting up into the air with brightly colored Chinese lanterns. Or, add a soft romantic ambiance with sheer globe lights. In order to hide light fixtures so they're not noticeable day or night, pile rocks around the fixture. "At night you'll see the light peeking out from the rocks, giving its magical look to the stone, and nobody gets glare in their eye, no matter how they look at the fountain," says Michael.
0.999999	Two girls missing since Dec. 30, 1999 -- Ashley Freeman of Welch, left, and Lauria Bible of Bluejacket. They disappeared from the Welch home of Danny and Kathy Freeman, who were found shot to death and their home burned. VINITA — Charges were filed Monday in the 18-year-old case of two teenagers who disappeared from the burning mobile home where one girl’s parents had been gunned down. Ronnie Dean Busick, 66, is charged in Craig County District Court with four counts of first-degree murder — malice aforethought, four counts of accessory to murder in the first degree, two counts of kidnapping and one count of first-degree arson and accessory to arson in the first degree. He is in custody in the jail in Harvey County, Kansas. The other suspects are Warren Phillip Welch II, who died in 2007 at age 61, and David A. Pennington, who died in 2015 at age 56. Busick is charged in connection with the December 1999 slayings of Danny and Kathy Freeman, their daughter, Ashley, and her friend, Lauria Bible, 16, who had stayed overnight at the Freemans' home near Welch to celebrate Ashley’s 16th birthday. In the early morning hours of Dec. 30, 1999, Busick, Pennington and Welch walked into the Freeman home. Witnesses told investigators varying accounts about the visit, with some saying they'd gone with plans to sell drugs and others saying they were there to collect a drug debt, according to a 29-page probable cause affidavit filed Monday in Craig County District Court. The girls walked in unexpectedly, documents show. The three men shot Danny and Kathy Freeman to death and lit the mobile home on fire. When the smoked cleared, Lauria’s car was still parked in front of the Freeman mobile home with the keys in the ignition and her purse, containing money, was found in the charred rubble of the Freeman mobile home. Prosecutors allege the three men kidnapped the teenagers, held them in Welch's mobile home in Picher and raped them, according to an affidavit. Welch and Pennington strangled the girls after “a matter of days,” the affidavit states. Related to this story Article: Victim's family seeks investigation into former law enforcement handling of Welch cold case Witnesses said Welch had photos depicting the teens “lying on a bed, facing each other, with their hands tied and their mouths gagged,” the affidavit states. In some photos, the affidavit states Welch was lying next to the teens. The Polaroid photos were kept “like a ‘trophy’” and stored inside a leather briefcase to be passed around the ringleader's circle of drug dealers, the affidavit states. Days after the slayings, two private investigators found an insurance card belonging to Welch's ex-girlfriend near the crime scene. Another witness told Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation agents that Welch often drove the woman's dark blue sedan, which was seen driving near the Freemans' home on the morning of the slayings. The girls' bodies are still missing. Investigators think they may be in a pit or mine shaft in the area known as the Tar Creek Superfund site in the Picher area or “dumped in a cellar that was later covered in concrete,” according to the affidavit. Describing the girls' final days as "horrific," Craig County District Attorney Matt Ballard said the teenagers were kept alive for an unknown number of days after the fire. “We believe there are people with knowledge of this crime who can assist in recovering the girls’ bodies and bring some closure to their families," Ballard said. Jay and Lorene Bible, Lauria Bible's parents, said after the news conference they were given tips the girls’ remains could be in possibly two places near the Kansas-Oklahoma border. Lorena Bible said she hoped to be able to confront Busick in person. “Hopefully I will get to look at him right in the eye and say to him 'Tell me where my child is,’” she said. Lorene Bible said she hoped to see prosecutors pursue the death penalty against Busick. Ballard did not address the issue of the death penalty at Monday's news conference. Previous stories Sheriff finds 'extremely valuable' long-lost investigation notes in case of missing girls from Welch 15 years later, mystery still surrounds missing Oklahoma girls Related Photos Ronnie Dean Busick Ronnie Dean Busick Warren Phillip Welch II Two girls missing since Dec. 30, 1999 -- Ashley Freeman of Welch, left, and Lauria Bible of Bluejacket. They disappeared from the Welch home of Danny and Kathy Freeman, who were found shot to death and their home burned.
0.999968	Oxbridge Academy remains open to register and support students during the COVID-19 outbreak! Read More 021 1100 200 [email protected] Search for: Home About Us Courses Fees Register Now Contact Us Login Home » Courses » Project Management Courses » Project Management Tools Project Management Tools Projects are often large and unwieldy undertakings and they are often tricky to manage. Especially when they are broad in scope, or when they involve many people, projects can derail quickly if their project managers aren’t alert. Because of this, there is a vast number of project management tools that professionals use to monitor progress and achieve their project goals. What is a project management tool? A project management tool is something that increases the effectiveness and efficiency of a project management team in their efforts to execute a project successfully. A tool can be used to help in the planning process, to streamline communication or facilitate team management, or to help reduce project costs. Most commonly, project tools are project templates or computer software programs. However, even project management methodologies can to a certain extent be defined as tools. Project management templates A project management template is a pre-set form or document that is customisable according to a project’s unique specifications. Using a template thus speeds up the project processes. Here are some of the templates project managers use: Milestone checklist: A list used to determine whether team members are on track with their tasks in terms of the project deadline. Scorecard: A scoring sheet used during the closing phase of the project that helps a project manager to assess the performance of his team and to compile a report. Project plan: A project plan template can include fields for all the processes involved in executing the project. Project charter template: A template to establish the project charter that will inform the project planning process. Change log: A document that allows you to record all changes to the project and to evaluate each one of those changes. Other templates that are often used are things like charts and diagrams that help you organise and present project data visually. Examples of these are: Fishbone Diagrams Gantt Charts Critical Path Analysis Flow Diagrams Diagrams and charts can help in planning, executing, and monitoring a project. However, because of the laborious nature of data processing, these templates are usually incorporated into project management software packages. Want to learn how to use project management tools to manage a project successfully? Consider studying a project management course from home. Simply fill in the form on this page, and an Oxbridge Academy Student Advisor will be in touch with you. Project management software Templates and other documents are often digital, as most project managers work with laptops, smartphones, and tablets in their day-to-day dealings. Consequently, project management computer software and apps have become important project tools. Software used by project managers can include simple word processing programs or programs like Microsoft Excel. There are also a number of complex project management software packages specifically designed for people working in this profession, however. Project management software can either be specialised tools designed for a single purpose – such as time management – or it can be a comprehensive program that can co-ordinate all aspects of a project: from planning, to resource and cost management. There are also plenty of single-function apps that you can get on your tablet or smartphone – especially when it comes to collaboration tools for brainstorming. Here is a list of the different functions that project management software can have: Managing time: Create schedules and co-ordinate member tasks. Tracking: Track project and task progress by keeping track of who completed which tasks, and when. Assigning resources: Co-ordinate resources and assign them to team members and tasks. Collaborating: Collaborate on plans, brainstorming sessions, and assignments via collaboration software that allows team members to simultaneously work on the same documents from different locations. Presentating and reporting: Convert raw data into visual graphs, tables, processed data, and reports. Making decisions: Enter data and variables and receive processed data in return. Then use this processed data to make educated decisions. Top 5 Project Management Software Packages Capterra, a software solutions company, ran a survey on project management software usage. They ranked the following software as the top 5 project management programs based on their popularity amongst professional project managers: Microsoft Project: By far the most popular choice, Microsoft Project is a comprehensive desktop software package that includes multiple features, tools, and templates. It is also fully integrated with other Microsoft tools such as Word and Excel, and has online collaboration capabilities. Atlassian JIRA: This is a tracking product used by project managers. It has functions such as issue tracking, project tracking, and software development tools such as bug tracking. Podio: This is a cloud-based collaboration service, which means that different people can access a project and collaborate on it via the internet. It also offers a number of different business apps that you can add on. Wrike: This project management tool is a good option for teams working on multiple projects. It can be used via web, cloud, or mobile app. Basecamp: This is an easy-to-use program that’s popular for projects that are relatively small. It places a strong emphasis on document-sharing and collaboration. By studying Oxbridge Academy’s Project Management Courses, you will be able to learn basic office data processing skills that will help you enter the increasingly digital field of project management. These courses focus specifically on teaching you how to use Microsoft to process data and manage project documents. Browse the Project Management Courses In partnership with ADvTECH, the leader in private education in Africa. Project Management Tools 4.8 rating based on 12,345 ratings Overall rating: 4.8 out of 5 based on 296 reviews. Anonymous About Us Why Choose Us? Accreditation Our Partners Social Investment Why Distance Learning? Reviews Latest News Our Blog Venues to Rent Download the App Already a Student? 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0.999991	Dr. David Martin drops bombshell: The FDA has only approved a COVID-19 vaccine that does NOT exist in the U.S. marketplace Your Name Your email Message or Cancel This site is not affiliated with Science News Magazine Search Home Food Health Medicine Pollution Cancer Climate Dr. David Martin drops bombshell: The FDA has only approved a COVID-19 vaccine that does NOT exist in the U.S. marketplace 09/05/2021 / By Nolan Barton Dr. David Martin warned the public that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved a coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine that does not exist. “When members of the mainstream suggest that this approval has suddenly put what is sitting in freezers around the world into an approved status, that’s actually not true,” Martin said during his appearance on “Brighteon Conversations.” “There are still manufacturing guidelines that were not required for the EUA that would be required for a full-approved product.” He told Health Ranger Mike Adams that the FDA has approved a “unicorn.” “Comirnaty does not exist,” Martin said, referring to the brand name of the Pfizer vaccine granted full approval by the federal agency. “The approval is for future production of COVID vaccine.” (Related: FDA fraudulently grants full approval to Comirnaty covid vaccine, skipping stage 3 trials and ignoring data on injuries and deaths.) Martin related that some vital information had been redacted in the approval letter that Pfizer had, as well as in its official publication from the FDA. “The section of where it can be manufactured and when it can be manufactured is redacted, which is unusual given the fact that an approval letter is supposed to be a public announcement that makes these things visible,” Martin said. COVID-19 vaccines should lose EUA protections Both Adams and Martin agreed that the confusion brought by the approval was compounded by the extension of the emergency use authorization (EUA) for the Pfizer vaccine used for children between the ages 12 and 15, as well as for the Moderna and the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines. “The mandate for EUA has to live inside of no clinical alternative,” said Martin. “The moment there is an approval, then the EUA protections for Moderna and Johnson & Johnson would cease to exist instantaneously.” In its approval letter, the FDA acknowledged that there is “a significant amount” of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine produced under EUA still available for use. The FDA ruled that Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine under the EUA should remain unlicensed but can be used “interchangeably” with Comirnaty. Under the circumstances, it was clear that the granting of full approval was a calculated move by the government to encourage businesses and schools to impose vaccine mandates and enable Pfizer to unload inventories of its COVID-19 vaccine under EUA. Martin said the Biden administration is pushing to get students vaccinated in time for the start of the coming school year. Difference between fully approved and under EUA products There is a huge real-world difference between products approved under EUA compared with those fully approved by the FDA. EUA products are experimental under U.S. laws. Both the Nuremberg Code and federal regulations state that no one can force a human being to participate in the experiment. Under U.S. laws, it is unlawful to deny someone a job or an education because they refuse to be an experimental subject. Potential recipients have an absolute right to refuse experimental vaccines. On the other hand, U.S. laws permit employers and schools to require students and workers to take licensed vaccines. EUA-approved vaccines have an extraordinary liability shield under the 2005 Public Readiness and Preparedness Act. Vaccine manufacturers, distributors, providers and government planners are immune from liability. The only way an injured party can sue is if he or she can prove willful misconduct and if the U.S. government has also brought an enforcement action against the party for willful misconduct. No such lawsuit has ever succeeded. The Comirnaty vaccine is subject to the same product liability laws as other U.S. products. Licensed adult vaccines, including Comirnaty, do not enjoy any liability shield. People injured by the Comirnaty vaccine could potentially sue for damages. Jury awards could be astronomical, so Pfizer is unlikely to allow any American to take a Comirnaty vaccine until it can somehow arrange immunity for the product. Public misled by mainstream media Members of the mainstream media were quick to report that vaccine mandates are now legal for military, healthcare workers, college students and employees in many industries following the full approval given by the FDA to Comirnaty on Aug. 23. The Pentagon promptly announced it will go ahead with its plan to force members of the military to get vaccinated against the virus, while New York City announced on the same day that all public school teachers and other staffers will have to get vaccinated. (Related: Pentagon orders ALL members of the armed forces to be vaccinated, essentially ordering thousands to die from blood clots and vascular damage.) One of the first to implement the requirement was the State University of New York (SUNY) system, which has nearly 400,000 students and more than 85,000 faculty members spread across its 64 campuses. Several other prominent institutions are expected to impose vaccine mandates after consultation with their Boards of Trustees and state officials. Fauci started all the madness decades ago According to Martin, this madness all started in 1999. It was when National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Director Anthony Fauci came up with the idea of creating an infectious replication-defective form of coronavirus. Fauci paid researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill to invent a pathogen that did not exist, Martin said. Fauci essentially asked the researchers to create a bioweapon. “You cannot manufacture a bioweapon and not say that you’re trying to kill people. That’s what a bioweapon is for,” Martin said. Kizzy Corbett, the person behind the development of COVID-19 vaccines using mRNA technology, once said: “It’s really cool because you don’t even need much of lab. You can build one of these on your computer at home.” That, Martin said, is an admission of biological warfare. “We are not talking about a virus. We are talking about an engineered pathogen,” Martin said. “We are not talking about a vaccine. We are talking about the introduction of a computer-simulated code in the form of mRNA – not to stimulate your immune system, but to turn your body into a factory producing S1 spike proteins similar to those found in coronavirus.” Watch the full episode of “Brighteon Conversations” with Mike Adams and Dr. David Martin here: Follow Immunization.news for more news and information related to coronavirus vaccines. Sources include: Brighteon.com ChildrensHealthDefense.org NYTimes.com Tagged Under: Anthony Fauci, bad medicine, Big Pharma, biological warfare, bioweapon, coronavirus, corruption, covid-19, COVID-19 vaccine, emergency use authorization, FDA, mRNA technology, Nuremberg Code, replication-defective coronavirus, vaccine mandate, vaccine wars, vaccines Get Our Free Email Newsletter Get independent news alerts on natural cures, food lab tests, cannabis medicine, science, robotics, drones, privacy and more. Your privacy is protected. Subscription confirmation required. Comments Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus. comments powered by Disqus Get Our Free Email Newsletter Get independent news alerts on natural cures, food lab tests, cannabis medicine, science, robotics, drones, privacy and more. Your privacy is protected. Subscription confirmation required. RECENT NEWS & ARTICLES POLIO is a man-made disease caused by heavy metals exposure, not a virus… the entire history of polio and vaccines was fabricated 11/28/2021 / By Ethan Huff Deadly pesticides can harm bee populations for generations, study finds 11/28/2021 / By Mary Villareal The SCIENCE is CLEAR: Higher covid “vaccine” coverage equals higher excess mortality 11/27/2021 / By Ethan Huff VAERS data reveals 50-fold increase in ectopic pregnancies following COVID-19 vaccine shots 11/26/2021 / By Mary Villareal Cancer expert says U.K. seeing spike in “non-covid deaths,” nobody willing to call out vaccine elephant in the room 11/25/2021 / By Ethan Huff Covid “vaccine” mandates dangerous for children, warns former Australian medical official 11/25/2021 / By Ethan Huff STUDY: Injecting sulfur into the atmosphere (as Bill Gates is doing) is a recipe for climate disaster 11/25/2021 / By Ethan Huff Chinese skullcap can kill brain cancer cells, thanks to its active component baicalein 11/25/2021 / By Ralph Flores Due to changes in solar cycles, Earth could enter a period of GLOBAL COOLING, scientists warn 11/24/2021 / By Lance D Johnson Official documents reveal scientists sent dangerous viral DNA samples to Wuhan lab before the pandemic 11/24/2021 / By Zoey Sky Flight attendants report serious COVID-19 vaccine reactions after getting jabbed to keep their jobs 11/24/2021 / By Cassie B. 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0.999986	Although today more than ever you probably perform deep cleaning in your home, you may not be doing it the right way. Photo by: CDC en Unsplash By Redacción 2021-02-08T22:58:00+00:00 The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic not only got us thinking about personal hygiene, but also about how we were cleaning our homes once we returned home. And while you probably do more deep cleaning at home today than ever before, you may not be doing it the right way. According to an article by Unicef, "an important precaution to reduce the risk of infection is to regularly clean and disinfect the surfaces of your home that are frequently touched", however to achieve effective results you have to do this with certain products, follow their instructions, and respect the time that each product indicates for it to take effect. "It is not recommended to use vinegar or other natural products", it was added. Anton on Unsplash For their part, experts told The New York Times that one should "keep in mind that some products may claim to be disinfectants even though they only reduce the amount of certain bacteria and not viruses. A true disinfectant is a product that destroys or deactivates both bacteria and viruses that are specified on the label." It is worth mentioning that for a product to claim to disinfect, in the United States it must be approved by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Because of this, many families, schools, businesses or institutions have opted to leave this important task to cleaning and hygiene experts or professionals. In San Diego, for example, there is Marvelous Cleaning Services (MCS) who, in addition to providing this type of service with quality, professionalism and certified experts, uses organic products, which allow them to take care of the environment and the health of their customers. What are these products? The cleaning products used by MCS are from Melaleuca The Wellness Company, which operates in 19 countries around the world, but has become one of the largest online and catalog wellness retailers in North America. "Melaleuca is on a mission to improve our environment with non-toxic household cleaning products that are safer for your home and allow you to live clean without the dangers of harsh caustic chemicals. Melaleuca is a world leader in concentrated products. Products that require less water to manufacture, less fuel to ship and less plastic to package. They're better for the environment inside your home ... and outside," their website describes. This is how MCS, after sixteen years of experience in the trade, continues to provide their services in a professional and friendly manner, allowing their customers to feel confident about their high standards. If you wish to receive their services or find out how much they cost and the time they need to clean your space, you can contact them through the following options:
0.97938	Losses to online shopping scams have increased 42 per cent this year, and Scamwatch is warning Australians to be careful when buying gifts this holiday season. 24 Nov 2020 Rental scams targeting more Australians during pandemic Australians have lost over $300,000 to rental and accommodation scams this year, an increase of 76 per cent compared to the same time last year. 21 Sep 2020 National Scams Awareness Week: 'This is Not Your Life' The ACCC has launched a podcast series for this year’s National Scams Awareness Week to provide Australians with tips on how to protect their personal and financial details from scammers. 17 Aug 2020 Scams target all sections of Australian society including CALD and Indigenous communities Data from the ACCC’s annual Targeting Scams report, released this week, indicates scammers don’t discriminate and are targeting a range of different communities in Australia. 25 Jun 2020 Business email compromise scams cost Australians $132 million Business email compromise scams caused the highest losses across all scam types in 2019 costing businesses $132 million, according to the ACCC’s Targeting Scams report. 23 Jun 2020 Scams cost Australians over $630 million Australians lost over $634 million to scams in 2019, according to the latest figures in the ACCC’s Targeting Scams report released today. 22 Jun 2020 Don't get scammed looking for a lockdown puppy Australians have lost nearly $300,000 to puppy scams this year, and scammers have been particularly targeting those seeking a furry companion during social isolation. 18 May 2020 Warning on COVID-19 scams Australians should be aware scammers are adapting existing technology to play on people’s fears around coronavirus and selling products claiming to prevent or cure the virus. 20 Mar 2020 COVID-19 (coronavirus) scams … COVID-19 (coronavirus) scams … Unfortunately, scammers are … products online, and using fake emails or text messages to try and obtain personal data. Other scams … to detect a fake trader or social media online shopping scam is to search for reviews before purchasing. No vaccine … 18 Mar 2020 Gen Z the fastest growing victims of scams Australians under 25 lost over $5 million to scams in 2019 and reports made from this age group are increasing faster than older generations.
0.999878	Doom Patrol is a show about a group of outcast and downtrodden metahumans who are thrown into crime-fighting when their leader, a man known as the Chief, is abducted by an old enemy of his named Mr. Nobody. The Doom Patrol is made up of Chief’s ‘strays’, as they are called by Cyborg. Each member has some form of superpower or superhuman ability, but due to their unpredictability and physical appearances, they are forced to live as outcasts rather than heroes. Chief protects and cares for them, and in return, gets to conduct studies and experiments that will hopefully advance modern medicine. Although the residents of Doom Manor are superpowered, they are also unstable, dysfunctional, and generally the exact opposite of what one would expect from a group of heroes. Even leaving the house results in catastrophe, which we see as early as the first episode. However, when the safety of the Chief is threatened, they are forced to work together as heroes to ensure his safe return. Doom Patrol aired in February of 2019 and has two seasons so far with 24 total episodes. It has been renewed for season three. This show was created by Jeremy Carver and is available to watch on HBO Max. Common Sense Media rates this show appropriate for ages 15+, but it’s truly intended for adults. There is lots of violence and adult language, as well as some nudity and sex. This show also has crude humor, which is not appropriate for younger viewers. List of Doom Patrol's main characters 1. The Chief - Niles Caulder Played by Actor: Timothy Dalton (originally Bruno Bichir) Image Source: DC Database Not much is known about the Chief, especially at the beginning of the show. He is introduced as a savior of sorts, using his scientific and doctoral abilities to save people who would otherwise have been left for dead or outcast from society. Doing so gained him immense loyalty from his ‘subjects’, but his morals and motivations are questioned at times, especially by Cliff. He lies, manipulates, and uses those around him to reach his goals. He also keeps the Doom Patrol away from common society, which is arguably as much about protecting them as it is maintaining control over them. Overall, this is a character that cannot be trusted. We know that the Chief has enemies, but it’s unclear exactly why this is the case at first. Most of his past, like his true motivations, is left a mystery to others and to the audience. 2. Cliff Steele - Robotman Played by Actor: Brendan Fraser Image Source: Looper Before becoming RobotMan, Cliff Steele is a successful racecar driver who is unsatisfied and unfaithful in his marriage. Our first scene with Cliff reveals that he is having an affair with his young daughter’s nanny. When his wife confronts him, it ends in a horrible fight where it is revealed that she’s also cheating. After nearly crashing during a race, he calls his wife and promises to make amends to her. However, while driving home, Cliff gets into a horrible accident that results in her death and destroys his body. Chief acts quickly to save Cliff’s brain, but it is implanted into a robotic body that has no feeling. This is done without Cliff’s knowledge or consent. Chief also lies about the fate of his daughter, Clara, claiming that she died that night when she is actually considered the accident’s only survivor. This results in Cliff being the least trusting of the Chief throughout the season, causing tension among the rest of the Doom Patrol. 3. Rita Farr – Elasti-Girl (Elasti-Woman) Played by Actor: April Bowlby Image Source: DC Database Rita Farr was a 1950’s movie star who graced the silver screen, starring in films and making a career of her natural beauty and acting talent. Pushed into life from a young age, Rita learns quickly how to survive in the industry. She was ruthless when it came to her career. Unfortunately, this resulted in her treating those around her with callousness and contempt. During filming for a movie in the Congo, Rita fell into a body of water containing a mysterious chemical. The chemical reacted with her body and caused it to melt into a pile of slime. Rita does not have full control over her ability and chooses to live in isolation in Doom Manor. She hasn’t aged since gaining her powers and surrounds herself with posters and movies of her old career and faded fame, seemingly unable to move on from the past. Although she doesn’t want to be a hero, she proves herself to be loyal to her housemates and the Chief in times of need and goes to great lengths for them. 4. Jane – Crazy Jane Played by Actor: Diane Guererro Image Source: Entertainment Weekly After going through severe, unknown trauma as a child, the character primarily known as Jane split into sixty-four ‘personas’, each with their own personality and superpower. These include super strength (Hammerhead), control over fire (Katy), and teleportation (Flit). Jane was rescued by Chief from unknown scientific experimentation, which results in her loyalty to him. She comes and goes from Doom Manor, unlike Larry and Rita, who stay in isolation. Featuring a character with symptoms of Dissociative Identity Disorder as a protagonist with complex motivations and characterization, rather than a villain included for shock value, is an extremely important step to removing the stigma surrounding this mental illness. However, the accuracy and appropriateness of Jane’s character must be determined by mental health professionals and, more importantly, the members of the DID community. 5. Larry Trainor - Negative Man Played by Actor: Matt Bomer Image Source: Vulture Larry Trainor was an all-American hero in the 1960s. An Air-Force test pilot, husband, and father, he had everything anyone could ask for. But he also had a secret- his affair with fellow airman John Bowers. While testing a new aircraft for the Air Force, Larry encountered a mysterious being purely made of energy. The entity took control of Larry’s body, causing him to lose control of the plane and crash. Although Larry survived the explosion, he suffered serious burns all over his body, which he wears bandages to cover. Like Rita, Larry has not aged since his plane crash. This may be due to the entity still possessing him. In order for the entity to emerge, Larry must lose consciousness, resulting in a fight for control between the two. The existence of the entity makes Larry very reluctant to participate in any acts of heroism, feeling that his involvement may inadvertently make things worse. 6. Mr. Nobody – Eric Morden Played by Actor: Alan Tudyk Image Source: Looper Mr. Nobody, whose true name is Eric Morden, volunteered for scientific experimentation that was meant to enhance him by granting him superhuman abilities. It ended up fracturing his body and giving him the ability to manipulate people’s minds and the reality around them. In short, “the mind is the limit” for Mr. Nobody; a being with such great powers poses a massive threat to the Doom Patrol. In many ways, Mr. Nobody exists to shatter the fourth wall. He acts both as the main villain in the story and our narrator, addressing the audience and characters directly and making self-aware references about critics, viewers, and even Reddit. This character is a great analogy for the series itself; he ranges from crude, almost childlike humor like making a door out of a donkey to truly horrific, scarring experiences like forcing our main characters to relive their traumatic experiences for his own amusement. The balance between self-awareness, lighthearted humor, and seriousness works incredibly well to create a terrifying, oddly likable villain. 7. Cyborg-Victor Stone Played by Actor: Joivan Wade Image Source: DC Comics This incarnation of Cyborg is the youngest to be seen in the live-action DC Universe. He’s just starting out at 21, five years after an accident in his mother’s lab that caused him severe injury and claimed her life. Cyborg, works with his father as a Detroit hero, aiming to save as many lives as he can and mold himself into a hero worthy of the Justice League. Vic Stone is very much under the influence of his father, another morally gray scientist responsible for Cyborg’s creation. However, Vic is also loyal to the Chief, an old family friend. He joins the Doom Patrol in efforts to rescue the Chief, acting as the hero one might expect to see from the Justice League but with less experience, less patience, and less ability to lead. Still struggling with his past and unsure of his future, Cyborg has a long way to go before becoming the hero we know and love. Why Cyborg is included in HBO's Doom Patrol instead of Titans Those who grew up watching the cartoon Teen Titans grew familiar with Cyborg as a major character, and his absence was a complaint about many Titans fans. Including Cyborg in Doom Patrol may seem like an odd decision, but here are the reasons why it makes sense: 1. Cyborg’s backstory fits thematically with the other members of Doom Patrol- not the Titans In Doom Patrol, a major theme connecting the characters is a tragic backstory behind their powers, resulting in the need for personal growth and accepting themselves, their abilities, and what those abilities represent. This version of Cyborg gained his abilities after an accident that he believes to have caused resulted in his injuries and his mother’s death. He must come to terms with what happened and find the truth behind that night before he can move past it and become a real hero. 2. Cyborg’s physical appearance wouldn’t make sense within the Titan’s universe In Titans, the characters need to be able to blend in with the ‘normal world’ and maintain secret identities. Several changes are made to character design: most notably, Beast Boy is no longer green and Starfire no longer looks like she comes from another world. Cyborg’s appearance makes him instantly recognizable. This doesn’t fit as well into the Titans as it does Doom Patrol, where a defining feature of the team is their inability to look ‘normal’. 3. Titans is already a character-heavy show and including Cyborg would hurt rather than help the story At times, Titans lean towards oversaturating their show with a multitude of characters. Doom Patrol has a smaller cast, allowing Cyborg a larger role that directly affects the plot and the overarching storyline. In an interview with DC, Jovian Wade talks about the differences between the Cyborg fans know and this incarnation of him. This version of Cyborg is much younger than what we see in the Justice League movie, and while his goal is to someday join that superhero team, he has a lot of work to do before he gets there. Much of this work can be better achieved in alliance with the Doom Patrol than with the Titans. Doom Patrol's Comic Book Origin Story Image Source: Think Christian The Doom Patrol team originated, as most superheroes do, in comics. The characters first appeared in My Greatest Adventure #80, which came out in June 1963. The comic took on a sci-fi feel which replaced its original, realistic adventure stories and was renamed for the team following issue #95. Originally, Doom Patrol was written by Arnold Drake and Bob Haney, illustrated by Bruno Premiani. There have been several incantations since then. The television show draws inspiration from both the original incarnation and Grant Morrison’s run, which started in 1989. The 1960s were set right in the middle of the Silver Age of DC Comics, which is considered to run from 1956 (with the introduction of the Flash) up to the 1970s. This era also reintroduced the ‘Justice Society’ as the Justice League of America, which remains as such to this day and features some of DC’s most well-known characters: Superman, Batman, and Wonder Woman. The sixties was an era that had seen its fair share of superhero stories. DC comics had been around since the creation of Superman in 1938, and after more than twenty years, it was time for a new kind of hero. The Doom Patrol existed, in many ways, as a deviation from Superman and other clean-cut heroes. Additionally, considering the shift in America from the Great Depression into the counterculture of the sixties, the shift in superhero stories from the impenetrable Superman to characters society deemed as outcasts and freaks makes a lot of sense. With all of these factors considered, it’s not surprising that Marvel released a very similar story only three months after Doom Patrol launched. X-Men was a comic following a school of mutants, set in a world where humans and mutants are at odds and mutant kinds are labeled a threat to ‘normalcy’. In fact, these two stories were so similar that Doom Patrol writer Drake was convinced Stan Lee had stolen their idea. However, given the closeness of the two comic’s releases and considering the time it would have taken to produce an entire comic, this accusation is likely unwarranted. It’s far more probable that both companies recognized the need for change and were able to adapt to a new generation of readers. Why DCEU's live-action films aren't working Image Source: The Verge DCEU was first created by Warner Bros. to rival the Marvel Cinematic Universe. It followed Iron Man (2008) with the 2013 release of Man of Steel, and since then has featured characters like Batman, Wonder Woman, Aquaman, and Shazam. It also includes movies based on villains: Suicide Squad and Birds of Prey (both featuring Margot Robbie as Harley Quinn). The DCEU has not had as much success as the MCU, and many favor the latter. One of the reasons fans consider DCEU disappointing is its clear attempt to rival Marvel, following their trend of crossovers and rushing through storylines instead of focusing on originality and taking the time to develop their characters before putting them together in bigger movies like Justice League. Perhaps this is the reason DC tv shows like Doom Patrol stand out. With more time to explore each character and more space to explore original ideas, Doom Patrol delivers a fresh take on the superhero story that we haven’t seen before. The balance of humor and emotion succeeds where movies like Suicide Squad failed, and the grey anti-hero characters feel more dimensional than the Justice League. Everything Doom Patrol does right when it comes to superheroes Image Source: Forbes Here are the major ways Doom Patrol stands out as an exceptional superhero television series. 1. The characters in Doom Patrol are well-written and fully developed In contrast with live-action DC movies, Doom Patrol takes the time to develop each of their characters, allowing them to exist in-between hero and villain with their own motivations, backstories, and relationships with each other and with their former families. The found family dynamic, mixed with humorous interactions between characters from different decades, makes this a fresh and interesting take on another superhero show. 2. The balance between humor and emotional moments is well-maintained throughout the series In their earlier movies, DC struggled to include humor to offset the serious subject matter. Later, they overcorrected in films like Suicide Squad. Doom Patrol moves effortlessly between comedy and heartfelt moments, never focusing too long on either extreme. 3. Doom Patrol is a fresh, self-aware take on "another superhero show" With Marvel and DC's raging success and decades-long existence, it's obvious that superheroes have been around for a long time. But this show brings something completely unique and original that fans haven't seen before. It feels like watching an entirely new genre of show, rather than rehashing the same story we've seen over and over again. That originality makes Doom Patrol well worth the watch. Why Beast Boy isn't in Doom Patrol Image Source: The Vulcan Reporter Doom Patrol was first intended to be a spin-off of the show Titans. The characters Rita, Larry, Cliff, and the Chief first appeared in episode four of the Titans, which introduced them as a family to Beast Boy. According to Titans lore, Gar Logan was rescued by the Chief after contracting an extremely rare disease in the Congo Basin. The ‘treatment’ altered Gar’s DNA, allowing him to become a tiger at will. He was taken in by Chief and grew up in Doom Manor. Unlike his housemates, Gar can maintain control of his abilities and interacts regularly with the ‘normal’ world. This leads to him meeting Rachel (Raven) Roth. In episode four of Titans, appropriately titled “Doom Patrol”, Gar brings Rachel back to his home and introduces her to the Doom Patrol. The episode ends with Gar joining the Titans, with his family wanting him to have a better life than they can. Despite this, it has since been confirmed that Doom Patrol takes place in an alternate timeline than the Titans episode shows. In an article posted on DC’s official website, showrunners Jeremy Carver and Sarah Schechter confirm that Doom Patrol exists within a different continuity than its introduction in Titans. This decision was meant to allow more creative control to the series, removing the confines of maintaining continuity within the Titans universe. There are notable differences between the two shows; Beast Boy does not exist, the Chief has been recast, and some of the characterizations are altered. With differences in continuity, as well as filming locations and the restraints of the current health crisis, a crossover episode has been deemed unlikely. Still, it’s not impossible, and more bridges between the two shows may be created in the future. The DC Multiverse; What it is and how it works The discrepancies between Titans and Doom Patrol can be more easily explained when one considers the multiverse. Most fans of DC will be aware of the multiverse, which is widespread in all its media. It shows up in animated movies like Flashpoint Paradox, the existence of the Crime Syndicate in DC comics, and Crisis on Infinite Earths. In short, the multiverse allows for the existence of multiple Earths within separate, parallel universes that take up the same physical space but are separated by differing frequencies. This is why characters like Flash, who can use their speed to reach different frequencies, are able to pass through to other Earths. The CW confirmed the existence of the multiverse within their own television network. The ‘Arrowverse’, consisting of Supergirl, Arrow, The Flash, Batwoman, and Legends of Tomorrow, featured a special crossover event titled ‘Crisis on Infinite Earths’ that confirmed the existence of Titans on ‘Earth 9’ and Doom Patrol on ‘Earth 21’. The following video contains spoilers for ‘Arrowverse’ and references to major character death. For a new and exciting take on superheroes, check out Doom Patrol. The show is available exclusively on HBO Max, along with DC's Titans. Written By Saved By Hayley K entertainment . 16 min read Follow Following Save A twenty-something writer trying to find her place in the world. I love my dog, mugs of hot tea, and all things make-believe. No Saves yet. Share it with your friends. Write Your Diary We use cookies to improve your experience and deliver personalized content. 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0.999761	Presented on February 11th and out for March 13th, in this guide I will reveal you come fare screenshot su Samsung Galaxy S20. Like many phones previously released in the Galaxy S series, there are several methods to take a screenshot with the Galaxy S20. Some are simple, some are complex. Here is a quick overview of all the methods known for fare screenshot su Samsung Galaxy S20. How to take screenshots on Samsung Galaxy S20 Taking a Samsung screenshot with your mobile device is very simple, but with the release of new top-of-the-range smartphones, screen capture methods have increased and sequences vary from device to device. This is why this guide is intended to help you learn and deepen other methods in addition to the traditional one of the key combination, both if you are an expert mobile user and if you are new to a latest generation Samsung phone, such as the Samsung Galaxy S20. 1. Method: Press the buttons This is the simplest and most common way to take a screenshot, and it pretty much works on all Android smartphones. All you have to do is press and hold the simultaneously volume and power button and the screenshot should be created in a second or two. Detailed instructions: Go to the content you want to acquire. Press and hold simultaneously: Volume + Power Button. 2. Method: Swipe with the palm Taking a screenshot on the Galaxy S20 with a flick of the palm may seem a little strange when you first try it, but you will soon realize that this is another handy solution for taking screenshots with the Samsung Galaxy S20. Swipe the palm side across the entire display from left to right or vice versa to take the screenshot. This method will first need to be enabled by going to Settings> Advanced Features> Motion & Gestures> Capture with Palm Tracking and moving the switch to ON. 3. Method: intelligent acquisition This method of capturing a screenshot with the Galaxy S20 allows you to capture the entire page of a website rather than just what you see on the screen. To get started, take a normal screenshot by holding down the volume keys and the power button at the same time (method one) or by swiping your palm across the display (method two). Once this is done, some options will appear at the bottom of the screen. Select "Scroll Acquisition”(Square icon with down arrow) and keep touching it to continue scrolling the page. This way you can take multiple screenshots of the page that will be merged to create the final product. Make sure to enable this Galaxy S20 screenshot method by going to Settings> Advanced Features> Screen & Screen Recording> Screen Toolbar. Move the switch to ON. 4. Metodo: Bixby The digital assistant Bixby from Samsung allows you to take a screenshot of the Galaxy S20 with a simple voice command. Press and hold the dedicated Bixby phone button on the phone and say the command: "Take a screenshot"Or"Take a screenshot". You can also use Bixby to take a screenshot just by saying “Hi Bixby“, But you have to set the feature by going to Bixby Home> Settings> Voice Wake Up. 5. Method: Google Assistant Aside from Bixby, Galaxy S20 phones have them all Google Assistant onboard, which also allows you to take a screenshot with a voice command. Simply say the command "OK Google”To display Assistant. Then say the sentence and "Take a screenshot”Or type the command with the keyboard. 6. Method: Smart Selection The function Smart selection from Samsung is great when you want to capture only a specific portion of the content displayed on the screen. You can take a screenshot in two different shapes (square or oval) and even create a GIF. Make sure this method is enabled in your settings first. To check if it's on, go to Settings> Display> Curved Screen> Tag Edge Panels. Move the cursor to ON. Detailed instructions: Go to the content you want to capture. Open the panel Edge, swiping from left to right with the index finger. Choose the option Smart selection. Select the shape you want to use for the screenshot. Select the area you want to capture and tap Done. These are all known methods su come fare screenshot Samsung, I hope you can find the one that best suits your needs. Other useful articles Screenshot Galaxy S2 Screenshot iPad Screenshot Samsung S3 Screenshot Galaxy S How to make money with WhatsApp ❯ Articles related to How to install iOS 9.3 on iPhone How to block calls from call centers How to move photos and videos from Android to SD card Best ADSL Fastweb 2022 offers Use your Android smartphone as a Wi-Fi router The best Custom Rom for Android Add a comment from How to take screenshots on Samsung Galaxy S20 Comment sent successfully! We will review it in the next few hours. 96% Do you want to complete all the achievements and trophies and know all the tricks, guides and secrets for your video games? SoulTricks.com is a group of video game fans who want to share the best tricks, secrets, guides and tips. We offer the best content to be a source of useful information, so here you can find guides, tricks, secrets and tips so you can enjoy your games to the fullest. Are you ready to get all the achievements of that game that you resist so much? 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0.977303	Can popular song titles and music lyrics be used in the sale of merchandise, such as on a t-shirt or bumper sticker? This article will explore the legal rights associated with using movie titles, song titles and lyrics in connection with the sale of a product by someone other than the originator or copyright owner of a song. Song Titles, Song Lyrics and Copyright Law Let's take a quick look at understanding how copyright law works before making any decisions about its use on a t-shirt or bumper sticker. Copyright law provides exclusive protection to someone who creates an original work of authorship that is fixed in a tangible medium of expression. What does that mean to people who don't understand legalese? It means that the thing you create must be: Some type of creative expression (such as a painting or song) which is; Sufficiently original and independently conceived by its creator that is; In some permanently stored format so that it can be reproduced (such as a painting on canvas but not a design drawn in water which is only visible for a moment.) Song titles generally don't fall within the protection of copyright law since most are not sufficiently original or independently conceived by the artist. Are phrases like "born to run" or "on the road again" sufficiently original so as to deserve legal protection? The few words in a song title may have been used many times before and should be able to be available for general use as a natural part of the English language. Copyright law in itself doesn't seem to prevent anyone from placing a song title on a bumper sticker or t-shirt. Song lyrics, like chapters in a book, consist of many words strung together by a person conveying a thought or series of thoughts. The more words the artist uses the less likely it is that someone else will independently use the exact same words to express the same thing. How common is it to hear someone utter the phrase "there's a lady whose sure all that glitters is gold and she's buying a stairway to heaven?" Probably not often. It is even less likely if the next sentence begins with "when she gets there she knows if the stores are all closed." This is why Led Zeppelin would have copyright protection for the song lyrics to "Stairway to Heaven" but not for the title. So if all we had to look at was copyright law, it would seem you might be able to use song titles or perhaps several words from song's lyrics on a bumper sticker or t-shirt. But the discussion is far from over as you'll see shortly. Song Titles and Trademark Law Trademark law is often confused for copyright law but it is a very different type of legal protection - it aims to prevent consumer confusion in the marketplace. When people hear the mark "Coca-Cola" they think of the famous cola flavored soda beverage manufactured by the company of the same name. Unlike copyright law, shorter phrases can be trademarked. Anyone can say that they have seen a couple of rough Dallas cowboys in the local bar but the law prevents anyone but Jerry Jones and his organization from using that phrase in connection with a professional football team. If some other entity wanted to create a professional football team and use the same name, it would be confusing to consumers in the general marketplace. Some large companies are known to take action, even if the use is marginal. The National Football League (NFL) is known for zealously policing its trademarks. T-shirt and apparel vendors know this well - it is a common problem for people trying to sell their own goods (or imitations) online or through e-Bay. The famous "Star Wars" mark of movie fame is own by Lucasfilm Ltd., who also police their marks vigilantly. Even if you think you are right, think about whether your use may be worth the time, money and effort you might need to defend yourself in a questionable case. Song titles have been trademarked and the subject of lawsuits. The "Material Girl" song by Madonna was a strong brand but a song title by itself was denied a trademark as it applied to clothing. Using that slogan on a t-shirt would seem to be permissible. On the other hand, "Ziggy Stardust" is a trademark owned by David Bowie. Using that unique name would probably call into question anyone who would put out a series of t-shirts or bumper stickers who has not obtained authorization from the ultra-famous musician. "Yellow Submarine" is a famous song by the Beatles and is a registered trademark of Subafilms - but also appears to be used by an unrelated company as the name of a restaurant. Showtime called its show "Californication" to the objection of the Red Hot Chili Peppers, who may lose their California lawsuit not only because they didn't trademark the term but also because it had been in use many years before the famous song. There is also the question as to whether simple use as a song title means it cannot be used as the name of a TV show (or merely as printed on a t-shirt.) Simon & Garfunkel's song "Kodachrome" was required to print recognition of Kodak's trademark for its film products on it's best selling album. The song "Things To Do In Denver When You're Dead" was written by Warren Zevon and a movie of the same name was allowed to use the title provided the song was played during the movie credits. What is the takeaway of all this? If you're thinking about using a song title on a bumper sticker or t-shirt, you will probably want to consider whether trademark law might apply and, if so, whether a federal trademark was filed in the USPTO Trademark database. Tips on Using Song Titles or Lyrics The following are a group of general observations made with regard to the use of song titles or lyrics on a product such as a t-shirt or bumper sticker. While it should be helpful as a general guide, you should be aware that you should not rely on this article by itself as legal advice for your specific situation. Every use of a song title or lyric is unique and has its own special circumstances - such as whether a copyright or trademark has been filed, the manner of use, the context of the use and more. The only way to be sure of the legality of your use of a song title or lyric would be to have a legal consultation with an experienced trademark lawyer. Generic song titles and phrases are likely not able to be protected (such as "On the Road Again") - this is most likely the safest approach to using song titles and lyrics on a t-shirt or bumper sticker; The more unique and unusual a phrase or song title, the more likely trademark law might apply (and that you might attract enough attention to be potentially sued or ordered to cease and desist by the entity that owns the rights to the song); While copyright law may not apply to a song title but trademark and unfair competition law might apply; Searching the US Patent and Trademark Office's Trademark Database is usually a good idea - but remember that there are also unfair competition laws which might apply; If copyright protection applies, it will be in effect whether or not there is a copyright registration; Just because other people and companies seem to be selling t-shirts, bumper stickers or other items successfully and without incident doesn't mean it's legal - for all you know, they either obtained permission, are in the process of being shut down or sued or might just not be large enough yet for the trademark owner to make the effort. Even if you might have the legal right to use song titles, be aware of the negative goodwill you might attract by people or fans who think you're wrongfully exploiting their beloved band or artist. Intellectual Property: Music Law Share This Article Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google+ Reddit eMail Article Tags Tags: bumper sticker quotes famous trademarks kodachrome material girl song lyrics song titles t-shirt quotes us patent and trademark office warren zevon yellow submarine ziggy stardust Michael Wechsler Michael M. Wechsler is an experienced attorney, founder of TheLaw.com, A. Research Scholar at Columbia Business School and of-counsel to Kaplan, Williams & Graffeo, LLC. He was also an SVP and chief Internet strategist at Zedge.net and legal consultant at Kroll Ontrack, a leading service e-discovery and computer forensics service provider. Comments To make a comment simply sign up and become a member! Sort Comments Sort Comments By Date: Newest to Oldest Date: Oldest to Newest Likes: Most to Least Likes: Least to Most Hi Michael. Really great article, that I've read a couple of time now. Thank you. I'm currently investigating if I can use a two word phrase, that also is the name of a song title by an English band, as my book title (literary fiction). I have checked at gov.uk, TMVie and other global databases, but this 2 word phrase is not trademarked anywhere, only as part of another title, which contains a 3rd word. No music publisher so far has been able to tell me if I can use the 2 word songtitle as my book title so far or not, but from all the research I've made, it seems that I should be able to use this two word phrase as my book title without any problems as it's it doesn't seem to be trademarked. It's not a huge, worldwide known song. Is there, in your opinion, somewhere I should doublecheck or something else I need to pay attention to? I greatly appreciate your advice, as the music industry has thrown me from one company to the next without anyone knowing about this issue. My gut feeling says that I'm good to use it. (I also want to use a lyric inside the book from that same band, but I know that this is only allowed if granted permission, so I'm trying to get that.) Many thanks for your view on this. All the best. Anna Berg, Jun 12, 2020 Thank you for this great article. I still have one important question with regards to it : What happens if I design a poster (for sale) which contains a list of famous titles (for example : "The greatest hits of the 1970s") The poster is actually a list of the 100 greatest hits of the 1970s (different songs, by different artists) Can that be considered an infringement of either copyright or trademark laws ? Thank you, Roni ronishwartz, May 10, 2018 I am not a lawyer but from my basic understanding I think this falls under "fair use" in copyright law. Perhaps you should research fair use. Morty, Nov 27, 2019 Compilations of songs can be subject to copyright. An image of a poster is likely subject to copyright law. Fair use is an exception where a portion may be usable but it's often not in the context of exploiting a substantial portion of the copyrighted material for pure commercial gain as is contemplated here. Michael Wechsler, Jun 18, 2020 Log in with Facebook Log in with Twitter Log in with Google Your name or email address: Do you already have an account? No, create an account now. Yes, my password is: Forgot your password? Stay logged in Sign up now! More from Patent, Copyright & Trademark Social Media How Blog, Twitter or Facebook Posts Can Affect your Employment Can you get fired for a Facebook, Twitter or blog post, even in private away from work? This article explains your rights, provides best practices for bloggers, and provides... 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0.999686	German airline giant Lufthansa said Friday it would prolong its suspension of flights to the Chinese mainland until March 28 over the novel coronavirus COVID-19. “The Lufthansa Group has now decided to cancel the flights of Lufthansa, Swiss and Austrian Airlines from/to Beijing and Shanghai until the end of the winter timetable on 28th March” rather than 29th February, the group said in a statement. Lufthansa flights to Nanjing, Shenyang and Qingdao were already cancelled until the same date. READ ALSO: Coronavirus in Germany – what you need to know Coronavirus evacuees arrive in Germany from China Meanwhile the group will respond to reduced demand for Hong Kong flights by cancelling some flights by flagship carrier Lufthansa and using smaller planes on Swiss connections. Passengers whose flight has been cancelled can change their booking at no charge or receive a full refund, Lufthansa said. On Thursday, UN body the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) estimated almost 20 million fewer passengers would travel to and from China in the first quarter compared with expectations, costing the airline industry up to $5 billion in revenue worldwide. The novel coronavirus first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan late last year. It has so far infected thousands of people and the worldwide death toll is at around 1,370, making it more deadly than the SARS crisis nearly two decades ago. The virus has since spread to more than 24 countries despite many governments imposing unprecedented travel bans on people coming from China. Several cases have been detected in Germany, with all patients are being treated in isolation wards. Dozens of global airlines have halted flight services with China to contain the outbreak, including British Airways and Air Canada.
0.999235	Celebrating any event or holiday is about the time shared together and the affection of loved ones. It is not about lists, or things to do, and NOT about stress - especially the stress of finances. And yet, the stress of finances can be a real issue. Costs for many items, like food, are rising. Feeding the hungry hordes this season can cost some serious money. So let's think about ideas on enjoying a beautiful and frugal holiday meal. First, remember what's really important. These celebrations were never about the food. Though food was shared at the first Thanksgiving, the event occurred as a celebration of life. I'm half Italian, so believe me when I tell you, I know food plays an important role in the enjoyment of these special days. Everyone has a favorite family recipe. All year you look forward to enjoying its tastiness, no matter the weight gained as a consequence. I totally agree that holiday foods are a source of pleasure. But the priority, the real focus, of these celebrations isn't the food. The holidays have a much deeper significance. On these days we remember the historic and earth-changing events that occurred many years ago. But the ritual of our meals together also prompts gratitude for all our blessings, including for friends and family. Now back to finances. Celebrations are important, but they are not for getting into debt. How can we have a memorable day, surrounded by friends and family, and do it frugally? You need a plan What do you generally like to have at these family dinner? To save money this year you may want to emphasize foods that are filling but inexpensive. Side dishes, made with foods that are cheaper, such as potatoes and carrots, fill bellies while allowing you to spend less money than other foods. Other cheap tricks include saving those Halloween pumpkins for your Thanksgiving pumpkin pie, and making food from scratch, which generally is the cheaper option. Let people help Allow guests to bring food and drink to the day's event. This will require two things: 1) knowing what meats, sides, desserts and beverages you generally have at your gathering, so you are able to easily give generous guests ideas on what to bring, and 2) relinquishing some control. You will have to be OK with the way they cook their potatoes or carrots. You can choose to be happy and allow others to be generous, to show love and to bless the family with their contribution of food. Relinquishing control graciously is a choice and involves some flexibility. Relax your shoulders, breathe deeply, my friend, and be ready to modify your practical and emotional expectations based on circumstances. Because you are mindful that this celebration is about relationships and gratitude and not about control, you will be able to let go and allow others to help! Shop smart Meat is usually the most expensive part of the meal, so talk to friends and family to find the best deals in local shops and large retailers. Check with the Maine Edge's own Frugal Fern on great deals. When you shop, consider buying only what you will eat that day. It isn't required that you have days and days of leftover food. If you have limited cash, buying twice what will be eaten for the meal isn't necessary. Rethink old habits. Beautifying the table Making the dinner and your house beautiful is part of making any event special. Holiday decorations made with the kids, or even made BY the kids, make memories. Special effort spent decorating separates this day from the usual, perhaps rushed, weeknight meals. But decorating can be very expensive. You need to think creatively to satisfy your decorative urges and the practical needs of a large crowd in your wee house. When it comes to decorating the house, sideboard and tables, collect freshly cut branches, pinecones, pumpkins and gourds from the garden. Rose hips, bittersweet, leaves and lichen combined with other items such as nuts, apples and berries, or used alone on a plate or in a special bowl, can make a display that rivals those of magazines. There is free beauty to delight your guests right outside your door, my friend. Need more dishes or chairs? Borrow what you don't have from friends, or check with your church. So long as you bring things back in good time and take responsibility for breakage, many churches will lend active members chairs, tables, coffee makers and other items that could really simplify your plans. In the end, remember, it's not the stuff the food or even our surroundings. Sharing a meal and being together is the best part of these special days.
0.999957	“What are they actually doing live?” How many times has this question been posed about DJs or electronic artists? Despite having some of the... Behind the scenes at Wisconsin’s Summerfest Jacob Waite - 5 November 2021 0 Summerfest is the biggest little event you may or may not know about. Certified in 1999 by the Guinness Book of World Records as... Paris pulls out all the stops for Global Citizen Live 2021 Jacob Waite - 5 November 2021 0 Back in 2018, TPi and TPMEA were lucky enough to visit South Africa to witness Global Citizen: Mandela 100, with the likes of Beyoncé... Heavy Music Awards 2021 Goes Hybrid Jacob Waite - 17 September 2021 0 Starting in 2017, the Heavy Music Awards was founded on the principle of recognising musicians, producers, and creatives working across the entire heavy music... 517 Days in the Making: Gorillaz Jacob Waite - 17 September 2021 0 Celebrating two decades since the release of their self-titled debut album, Gorillaz, the world’s most successful virtual band made history yet again this August,... The Chemical Brothers @ Latitude Jacob Waite - 17 September 2021 0 Festival Republic has made a major effort to get outdoor events up and running in 2021. With each of its shows, from its Sefton... Reopening O2 Brixton Academy: Circa Waves Jacob Waite - 17 September 2021 0 After over a year in oblivion with no in-person audiences, O2 Brixton Academy finally flung open its doors in August to welcome a talented... d&b’s Soundscape Strikes a Chord at Nevill Holt Opera Jacob Waite - 17 September 2021 0 At the risk of stating the obvious, we at TPi are obsessed with the technology behind event production. From moving lights to complex video... Montreux Jazz Festival: Adaptation in the Face of Adversity James Robertson - 9 August 2021 0 With many summer festivals having to pull the plug again this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Montreux Jazz Festival opted to adapt its... Behind The Screens: The KSI Show James Robertson - 9 August 2021 0 The KSI Show – filmed over the course of two days during a five-day residency at London’s Garden Studios and later broadcast on Moment... The Haçienda House Party IV Jacob Waite - 12 July 2021 0 Now in its sixth year, Haçienda Classical sees orchestral renditions of heritage Haçienda club tracks performed on stage with experimental orchestra, Manchester Camerata. As... Live At Worthy Farm Jacob Waite - 12 July 2021 0 It was a heavy blow to this year’s festival season when Glastonbury announced that its 2021 event would not be going ahead. While nothing... Behind the Scenes at Download Pilot Jacob Waite - 12 July 2021 0 In late May, I received an email that read: “10,000-capacity, three-day, camping-only test event. Moshing allowed.” I can safely say in all of my... Eurovision Song Contest 2021 Jacob Waite - 14 June 2021 0 With its global fanbase having to wait an extra year, the 65th edition of Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) was back, much to the pleasure... CIRCUS: The First Dance Jacob Waite - 14 June 2021 0 On Saturday 1 May, I dusted off the cobwebs from my dictaphone to make the short trip across the River Mersey to Liverpool’s Bramley-Moore... Sefton Park: Removing the Masks for an Afternoon of Music Jacob Waite - 14 June 2021 0 In the same weekend that saw our own Jacob Waite head over to the CIRCUS club event in Liverpool (p34), across town, a hard-working... InKLICK: The Missing Link in Virtual Productions Jacob Waite - 6 May 2021 0 As we crossed the 12-month COVID-19 milestone, out of curiosity I looked back at some of the coverage TPi was putting out a year... British Music Embassy: SXSW Online 2021 Jacob Waite - 6 April 2021 0 Since 2009, The British Music Embassy has transformed a corner of Austin, Texas, into a platform for burgeoning UK artists to travel overseas and... Load more © Total Production International 2021 We are using cookies to give you the best experience on our website. You can find out more about which cookies we are using or switch them off in settings. Close GDPR Cookie Banner Accept Reject Close GDPR Cookie Banner Close GDPR Cookie Settings Privacy Overview Strictly Necessary Cookies Cookie Policy Privacy Overview This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping our team to understand which sections of the website you find most interesting and useful. Strictly Necessary Cookies Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings. If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
0.999499	Article about: by Panzer 3 Hi chris, The stokes you have is in very nice condition they are getting harder to find these days . Getting harder to find ?,,I WISH im sick of finding the bloody things. pis al 05-24-2009, 11:06 PM #1 Panzer 3 ? Stokes Mortar. Hi, I thought I would show this Stokes Mortar for some of you that haven't seen one before. I have had it in my collection for many years now. The Stokes was designed in 1915 but not brought into service until later in the war, this is a 1917 mk1 3" howitzer mortar shell. It is 18 inches long and could fire 800 yards. I have painted it in H.E, colours they were also used as a Gas mortar. You can see the interior paint which is original, but the pins and rings are replacements. This shell was dug on the Somme and in relic condition, I.E, mud ball, but came out ok after a couple of days work. . 05-24-2009 11:06 PM # ADS Espenlaub Militaria Circuit advertisement Join Date Always Location Advertising world Age 2010 P Many We also buy and trade your items and full collections! 05-25-2009, 09:06 PM #2 Adrian Stevenson ? Re: Stokes Mortar. Hi Dave, these are not too common I think? Nice to see one here on the forum. That interior paint is in amazing condition! Cheers, Ade. . 05-26-2009, 10:13 PM #3 Panzer 3 ? Re: Stokes Mortar. Hi Ade, Thank, yes the interior paint is very good i was pleased when i opened it up and saw that. I thought i would put some odd grnds on as not everyone has seen these types, I collect ww1 grnds my earliest is a British Battye grnd 1914. . 06-12-2009, 06:24 PM #4 spotter ? Re: Stokes Mortar. Heres some we found at work this week,we are currently on a site where these were trialed/developed, and so far the ones that have been found are full of all sorts of inert fillings,scrap iron sand,coaldust ,shrapnel balls,solid lead etc etc Click to enlarge the picture . 06-12-2009, 06:43 PM #5 big ned ? Re: Stokes Mortar. Hi Guys, These are very interesting items. Have any of you got photo's/diagrams of the way they were set up and used? Kind Regards,Ned. 'I do not think we can hope for any better thing now. We shall stick it out to the end, but we are getting weaker of course, and the end cannot be far. It seems a pity, but I do not think I can write more. R. SCOTT. Last Entry - For God's sake look after our people.' In memory of Capt. Robert Falcon Scott, Edward Wilson, Henry Bowers, Lawrence Oates and Edgar Evans. South Pole Expedition, 30th March 1912. . 06-12-2009, 06:45 PM #6 Panzer 3 ? Re: Stokes Mortar. hi spotter, Nice pics thanks for showing them, as they are inert do you keep them or do they get scrapped ?. they are good to restore for a collection.. dave. . 06-12-2009, 06:50 PM #7 spotter ? Re: Stokes Mortar. Big Ned i have documents i will post up later for you.. Dave unfortunately they all get smelted,we do occasionaly get to keep stuff with permission but not very often . 06-12-2009, 07:02 PM #8 big ned ? Re: Stokes Mortar. Nice one Spotter! I appreciate your fast response and look forward to your reply!! Regards, Ned. 'I do not think we can hope for any better thing now. We shall stick it out to the end, but we are getting weaker of course, and the end cannot be far. It seems a pity, but I do not think I can write more. R. SCOTT. Last Entry - For God's sake look after our people.' In memory of Capt. Robert Falcon Scott, Edward Wilson, Henry Bowers, Lawrence Oates and Edgar Evans. South Pole Expedition, 30th March 1912. . 06-20-2009, 12:35 PM #9 spotter ? Re: Stokes Mortar. Sorry for late response been busy with work early starts late home etc ..ive had a look and sorry folks i was wrong the drawings i have of the stokes mortar show the anti aircraft set up,ive pulled a few images showing the tube in basic set up if theyre any interest and some drawing relating to the rounds, Note in the colour drawing showing the markings .the colours are NOT accurate they have been badly scanned and this has altered the shades what looks like yellow bodies should be a off white creamy colour Click to enlarge the picture . 06-20-2009, 05:06 PM #10 big ned ? Re: Stokes Mortar. Hi Spotter,! Thanks for your time gleaning the extra info,that's just what i wanted to know!The propellant cartdridge is very interesting, it appears almost identical to that of a shotgun cartridge,if perhaps a little shorter. To fling that shell 800yds it must have considerable poke! Would it be a standard bore, say 10 or 8 bore as i'd guess 12 wouldn't be enough? I notice that the bottom of the case on your restored shell is bevelled slightly outwards. was it designed like this do you think? Or perhaps it was caused when the cartridge was fired? Again, any thoughts apreciated!! Sorry for being a pain in the proverbial, Regards, Ned. 'I do not think we can hope for any better thing now. We shall stick it out to the end, but we are getting weaker of course, and the end cannot be far. It seems a pity, but I do not think I can write more. R. SCOTT. Last Entry - For God's sake look after our people.' In memory of Capt. Robert Falcon Scott, Edward Wilson, Henry Bowers, Lawrence Oates and Edgar Evans. South Pole Expedition, 30th March 1912.
0.99612	Who is popular today, a project that regularly archives news and public figures from the Wikipedia, then links current events with public figures, and then comes the statistics, information extraction and patterns recognision. The project aims primarily at analyzing news to extract information and linking it more favorably to the reader, instead of reading the news randomly. The other goal is to archive news as profiles for public figures, making them a permanent reference for researchers. The project depends on some of the links between the unstructured texts (news) and entities (people) through the analysis of text and the approach with the names of public figures, in addition to some of the process of identifying the images of the characters through the news in which it was mentioned.
0.929281	Due to the impact of COVID-19, you are recommended to check travel restrictions from your government sources and contact local venues to verify any new rules World Travel Guide World Travel Guide CLOSE Search Country Guides City Guides Features Food & Drink Flights Accommodation FOLLOW US World Travel Guide > Guides > Europe > France > Biarritz beaches Introducing Biarritz beaches About Biarritz beaches Images of Biarritz beaches height on window resize 'updateSidebarHeight': true, // disable the plugin when the screen size is smaller than... 'minWidth': 0, // disable the plugin on responsive layouts 'disableOnResponsiveLayouts': true, // or 'stick-to-top', 'stick-to-bottom' 'sidebarBehavior': 'modern', // or 'absolute' 'defaultPosition': 'relative', // namespace 'namespace': 'TSS' }); //jQuery("article p:nth-of-type(2)").addClass("target"); //jQuery(".target").after (""); //$script1 = " "; //jQuery(".target").after ($script1); }); Biarritz beaches Travel Guide About Biarritz beaches Biarritz is one of the most famous and glamorous resorts on the French coast, with kilometres of golden sandy beach and a cornucopia of watersports. During the last 50 years the resort has become something of a Mecca for surfers, who flock here to ride the famous Basque coast waves. Away from its beaches, Biarritz rewards visitors with imposing fin-de-siècle architecture, a smattering of decent museums and luxurious spas, not to mention the 10 golf courses that are located nearby. Biarritz also boasts very good restaurants and myriad bars and cafés where alfresco drinking is de rigueur. Beach: Biarritz boasts some of the best and busiest beaches on France's southwest coast. In summer holidaymakers might struggle to find their own patch of golden sand on the main Grande Plage beach, as this is the place to see and be seen. Hire a sun lounger, try the myriad watersports on offer or simply lie back and soak up the sun's rays. Surfers should head to the Côte des Basques beach, which in July every year hosts one of the world's biggest surf festivals. Beyond the beach: Discover the resort's architectural treasures including the 12th-century Church of St Martin (rue St-Martin) and the Russian Orthodox Church (8 avenue de l'imperatrice). Complete a stroll along the waterfront promenade, Quai de la Grande Plage, with a sneaky peak inside the palatial Hotel du Palais, or with an alfresco espresso in the attractive Place Ste Eugenie square. Biarritz's colourful old fishing port and the Rock of the Virgin are also worth seeking out. Family fun: Sandy beaches and resort hotels with children's pools and kids' playgrounds make Biarritz a good choice for families. Some hotels operate children's club and babysitting services. Away from the beach the 150 plus species of marine life, including sharks, at the Maritime Museum's aquarium (14 plateau de l'Atalaye) (www.museedelamer.com) enthral kids. Exploring further: The nearby twin resort towns of Saint Jean De Luz and Cibourne boast a handful of attractive buildings, a working fishing port and a hard-to-beat river and seaside setting. After exploring Cibourne's Basque architecture or splashing about on Saint Jean De Luz's beach, join the holidaymakers and locals from Biarritz and Bayonne that flock to the resort's first-rate seafood restaurants. About The World Travel Guide The World Travel Guide (WTG) is the flagship digital consumer brand within the Columbus Travel Media portfolio. A comprehensive guide to the world’s best travel destinations, its print heritage stretches back more than 30 years, with the online portal reaching its 20-year anniversary in 2019. Available in English, German and Spanish versions, the WTG provides detailed and accurate travel content designed to inspire global travellers. It covers all aspects, from cities to airports, cruise ports to ski and beach resorts, attractions to events, and it also includes weekly travel news, features and quizzes. Updated every day by a dedicated global editorial team, the portal logs 1 million+ unique users monthly.
0.999354	Queen Elizabeth revealed her ability to cut her birthday cake in her own way at a party she attended, accompanied by the Duchess of Cambridge and the Duchess of Cornwall. When the 95-year-old attended a private reception along with Kate Middleton and Camilla, Duchess of Cornwall, she decided to ditch an ordinary cookie-cutter for a sword. And media outlets published a video clip of this moment, showing the Queen using the "celebration sword" to cut a large white and green cake surrounded by strawberries. After being advised to use her hands when she first raised the sword, a nearby attendant tried to tell the Queen there was a knife, and between laughter and cheers from the audience, Camilla helped the Queen push the 90cm sword down into the decorated cake. According to royal protocol, the Queen celebrates her "official birthday" usually on the second Saturday in June when there is a greater likelihood of good weather at the Christmas Parade, also known as Trooping the Color, according to the royal family's website. . Meanwhile, organizers of the Platinum Jubilee are preparing to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the accession of Queen Elizabeth, which is scheduled to take place in February 2022. facebook twitter pinterest whatsapp reddit linkedin World news reactions Latest articles from : World news Comments Post a Comment `; $('.asfafafqw').html(asafah) $.getScript( "https://www.blogger.com/static/v1/jsbin/1769009776-comment_from_post_iframe.js", function() { BLOG_CMT_createIframe('https://www.blogger.com/rpc_relay.html'); }); } });
0.999638	New York City Will Allow Gender-Neutral 'X' On Birth Certificates; A new bill makes it easier for all transgender people born in NYC to change the sex listed on their birth certificates, and permits an 'X' option for those defining as non-binary. submitted by readet to lgbt [link] [comments] New York gets a non-binary option on birth certificates starting today http://bit.ly/2BTasSZ submitted by two- to TransAdvocate [link] [comments] New York City residents can now choose a non-binary option on birth certificates submitted by bluethecoloris to TheColorIsBlue [link] [comments] [World] - New York City residents can now choose a non-binary option on birth certificates submitted by AutoNewsAdmin to INDEPENDENTauto [link] [comments] [World] - New York City residents can now choose a non-binary option on birth certificates \| The Independent submitted by AutoNewspaperAdmin to AutoNewspaper [link] [comments] Tech's Plan after Suppressing Wave One I did not think we'd get here. COVID cases are in the single digits, and many cases are off-campus (https://health.gatech.edu/coronavirus/health-alerts). Test positivity rates are incredibly low (https://gatech-covid-tracker.com/). I think we can say that Georgia Tech has navigated through it's first wave of COVID cases. How did this happen? I'm not an epidemiologist, and even Dr. Fauci himself wouldn't be able to give you a 100% correct answer, because nobody can give you a 100% correct answer - there are too many unknowns. But, we can look at a few factors. 1.) Modified herd immunity threshold. Immunity is likely a real phenomena with COVID-19. Yes, there are now 7 confirmed cases of reinfection, but immunity is not a binary thing. It is not as if every person infected with COVID will either be immune, or they will be as unprotected as the rest of us. It's likely that the majority of COVID cases will gain some sort of immunity, and some will gain no immunity. For the sake of simplicity, let's just assume everyone infected with COVID at our campus has immunity. Georgia Tech has, in total, around 900 positive COVID cases. There are ~14,000 people on campus if you wildly extrapolate from a few surveys taken on this subreddit - if anyone could find where the actual number is, it would be helpful. Additionally, around 5-10% of the US was probably infected in the original Feb-March surge, which would be 700-1400 people. This brings us to 1600-2300 immune people in a population of 14000. The herd immunity threshold is given by (1-1/R0). Uncontrolled, the R0 for SARS-CoV2 is ~4. This means roughly 75% of the populace must be infected to gain "true immunity" - IE, you can do whatever you want, no distancing, no masking, etc. Obviously this is a bad idea. But, we aren't letting SARS-Cov2 spread uncontrollably. Mask compliance is high, people are trying to distance, people are washing their hands more often, etc. R0 is a function of environmental parameters as well - increasing distancing and hygiene decrease your R0. So what is the R0 with distancing and masking? That's a big question, but estimates from New York and Western Europe say it was somewhere around 0.8-1.1. A college campus will have a higher R0 than a typical state or nation, so we'll shift this up to 1.1-1.3. This brings our herd immunity threshold to anywhere between 9-23%. We currently have in the range of 11.5%-16%, and some cases on campus may have gone totally undetected. Here's a twitter thread by an MIT data scientist if you want to read more about the "modified herd immunity" phenomena. 2.) The people who took the most risks have already gotten COVID. Anecdotally, and logically, this makes sense. People going to bars, frat parties, etc have already been infected, and that was our "first wave". Unfortunately, I don't know how to quantify this in any meaningful way, but it is probably a factor. 3.) Behavior change. People could've seen the surge in cases and decided to be more careful - get tested weekly, avoid indoor dining, go to the CRC early in the morning when it's less crowded rather than in the middle of the day, etc. This would lower R0 as well and aid with point 1, although again, I don't know how to meaningfully quantify this. But it is a possible factor. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If you made it through the above, congratulations. The question now is what Tech should do. Frankly, I feel like I am wasting both money and time this semester. This is unavoidable, and not Tech's fault or USG's fault - just a virus doing it's thing. But, just as governments - those of New York, China, South Korea, Germany, etc - gradually eased back on restrictions as the first curve was crushed, I believe Tech can and should do the same. We should not throw the floodgates open and let all hell break loose - but I think we can slowly loosen the screws in a manner that improves educational experiences, and in a way that avoids a second wave. Remote learning sucks. At least for intro classes, there is far better free material on Coursera - made by people who know how to deliver content online and who have been doing it for years - as opposed to professors who were thrown into this a few months ago. As we all know, many "hybrid" courses are pretty much all online. I'd suggest the OPTION - for both professors and students, mandates are a god awful idea - to have more in-person hybrid sections. This won't give me my money's worth - but it'll give us something. As of now, I have three hybrid classes - and yet have not had a single in person class. These classes can be conducted in a safe, distanced/masked manner, as to keep our R0 low and keep reaping the rewards of the "modified herd immunity" discussed above. This might be difficult to implement in the middle of this semester, but I think it can be implemented next semester, in the absence of mass vaccination until (in the most optimistic case) February-March. Other things include opening up lounges in dorms. Also, I know visiting other dorms is technically banned, but everyone I know is ignoring that rule. Many people aren't even aware of that rule - might as well just get rid of it if compliance is close to nil. But, I'd prefer more in-person classes above all else. This was a long post. Ultimately, COVID is a game of trades - we could lock everyone in their homes until there's a vaccine, but that would destroy our society. We could let everyone run wild until there's a vaccine - again, that would destroy our society. It's a multivariate optimization problem, where we are trying to maximize safety, education, and the student experience. I'm just a dude trying to help us find that maximum. TLDR: COVID-19 first wave beaten due to number of factors. More in-person classes would be nice. submitted by _neorealism_ to gatech [link] [comments] The Division 2 - Title Update 10 - Patch Notes Title Update 10 - Patch Notes These are preliminary Patch Notes and changes may still happen until the launch of Title Update 10. New Season – Keener’s Legacy A new season is almost upon us! Starting on June 23rd, Keener’s Legacy offers 12 weeks of in-game activities and unique rewards. Season 2 brings a new Seasonal Manhunt, new Leagues, a new Global event and new unique rewards, as well as an Apparel Event. New Manhunt tasking you to take on 5 rogue agents over a 12-week period starting June 23rd. Bring down all five to unlock the new Healing Trap skill variant. New Global Event Hollywood New Apparel Event Phoenix Down New Leagues Termite, Luna, Huntsman and Titan. New Rewards 2 new Exotics 1 new Gear Set 2 new Named Weapons 2 new Named Gear 1 new Brand Set Participating in the activities above will earn players Season experience contributing to their Season level. Playing Conflict will contribute XP by gaining Conflict Levels beyond 30. Playing in the Dark Zone will contribute XP by gaining DZ Levels beyond 30. New Raid - Operation Iron Horse The True Sons have taken over a Foundry to develop new weapons and threaten to destroy everything the Division has worked for. New bosses, puzzles and rewards! Level 40 version available on June 30th, followed the next week by the level 30 version. Discovery mode will become available at a later date. Unique Rewards 2 new Exotics 2 new Gear Sets New cosmetic rewards Further details will become available closer to the raid’s release in late June. Balance and Bug Fixes Title Update 10 is bringing our first large balance pass following the release of Warlords of New York. Beyond the addition of new content, the update focuses on three main aspects mainly game health through bug fixes and balancing, generosity by increasing your chances to receive a high-quality item as loot and increasing overall player power. Scroll down for a full list of bug fixes, balancing changes and gameplay tweaks. Missing Localized Audio We wanted to inform you about an issue with localized audio that will be present when we launch Title Update 10 and Season 2. While the team was able to work from home to get this update ready, with your help testing the content on the PTS, we unfortunately were not able to record all localized audio content for TU10. With everything going on in the world, our top priority is the well-being of our teams, including our voice actors. Of course, we will start working on recording the missing audio with our partners when it is safe to do so and, in some cases, we were able to get things started already. Adding the localized files to the game as soon as we can in one of our next updates is an absolute priority for the team. This only affects Seasonal content. Operation Iron Horse audio is fully localized. If you are currently playing with a non-English client, you don’t have to change anything going into Title Update 10. When localized audio is missing you will just hear the English audio instead. Subtitles have been localized and can be activated in the ingame options. As work continues, we will update you on the progress of the integration here on the forums and on State of the Game. Thank you and stay safe! New Exotics SRS Sniper Rifle: Mantis Your scoped view displays additional information about enemies not targeting you Your scoped view highlights enemy weakpoints Headshot and weak point damage against enemies not targeting you amplified by 50% Headshot kills reset the cooldown of the Decoy skill. This bonus will wait until the Decoy goes on cooldown if currently active Mask: Vile Status effects also apply a damage over time debuff for 10s Total damage dealt is equal to 50% of your concussion grenade damage and increased by your status effect attributes Double Barrel Rifle: The Ravenous (Operation Iron Horse) On trigger-pull, fire both barrels at once When fired from the right shoulder, hits add offensive primers, and defensive primers when fired from the left shoulder Hits from one shoulder will detonate all of the opposite shoulder's primers when present When detonated or affected enemy is killed, each offensive primer deals 100% weapon damage, while each defensive primer grants +4% bonus armor and +10% amplified damage to armor plates for 5s Primer effectiveness is doubled at 10 stacks Magnum Pistol: Regulus (Operation Iron Horse) Headshot kills create a 5m explosion, dealing 400% weapon damage and applying bleed to all enemies hit. High accuracy and base damage New Gear Sets Eclipse Protocol (Season 2) Core: Skill Tier (Yellow) 2: +15% Status Effects 3: +15% Skill Haste and +30% Hazard Protection 4: "Indirect Transmission" Your status effects now spread on kill to all enemies within 15m and refresh 50% of the duration. Chest talent: "Proliferation" Increases Indirect Transmission range from 15m to 20m and refresh percentage from 50% to 75% Backpack talent: "Symptom Aggravator" Amplifies all damage you deal to status affected targets by 15% Foundry Bulwark (Operation Iron Horse) Core: Armor (Blue) 2: +10% Armor 3: +3% Armor Regeneration 4: "Makeshift Repairs" Whenever you or your shield take damage, 20% of that amount is repaired to both over 15s Chest talent: "Process Refinery" Increases Makeshift Repairs from 20% to 30% over 15s Backpack talent: "Improved Materials" Increases Makeshift Repairs speed from 15s to 10s Future Initiative (Operation Iron Horse) Core: Skill Tier (Yellow) 2: +30% Repair Skills 3: +30% Skill Duration and +15% Skill Haste 4: "Ground Control" Increases you and your allies' total weapon and skill damage by 15% when at full armor When you repair an ally, you and all allies within 5m of you are also repaired for 60% of that amount Chest talent: "Tactical Superiority" Increases Ground Control damage bonus from +15% to +25% Backpack talent: "Advanced Combat Tactics" Increases Ground Control proximity repair from 60% to 120% New Gear Brand Walker, Harris & Co. Core: Weapon Damage (Red) 1: +5.0% Weapon Damage 2: +5.0% Damage to Armor 3: +5.0% Damage to Health New Named Weapons Mechanical Animal (SIG 556) with Future Perfection Weapon kills grant +1 skill tier for 19s. Stacks up to 3 times. Weapon kills at skill tier 6 grant overcharge for 15s. Overcharge Cooldown: 90s Harmony (Resolute MK47) with Perfectly In Sync Hitting an enemy grants +20% skill damage for 5s. Using a skill or damaging an enemy with a skill grants +20% weapon damage for 5s. Damage increases are doubled while both buffs are active at the same time. New Named Gear Matador (Walker, Harris & Co. backpack) with Perfect Adrenaline Rush When you are within 10m of an enemy, gain 23% bonus armor for 5s. Stacks up to 3 times. Cooldown: 5s Chainkiller (Walker, Harris & Co. chest) with Perfect Headhunter. After killing an enemy with a headshot, your next weapon hit within 30s deals 150% of that killing blow’s damage in addition to it. Damage is capped to 800% of your weapon damage. This is raised to 1250% if your headshot damage is greater than 150%. New Skill Variant Repair Trap The Repair Trap deploys a line of small devices capable of repairing friendlies in their proximity. Note: The Repair Trap will not be available in-game until the Seasonal prime target unlocks in August. New Talents Weapon Talent: Future Perfect Weapon kills grant +1 skill tier for 15s. Stacks up to 3 times. Weapon kills at skill tier 6 grant overcharge for 15s. Overcharge Cooldown: 90s Weapon Talent: In Sync Hitting an enemy grants +15% skill damage for 5s. Using a skill or damaging an enemy with a skill grants +15% weapon damage for 5s. Damage increases are doubled while both buffs are active at the same time. Backpack Talent: Adrenaline Rush When you are within 10m of an enemy, gain 20% bonus armor for 5s. Stacks up to 3 times. Cooldown: 5s Chest Talent: Headhunter After killing an enemy with a headshot, your next weapon hit within 30s deals 125% of that killing blow’s damage in addition to it. Damage is capped to 800% of your weapon damage. This is raised to 1250% if your headshot damage is greater than 150%. Gameplay Changes Missions Reduced how many elites will spawn in the following mission: Manning National Zoo Coney Island Ballpark Coney Island Amusement Park Camp White Oak Space Administration HQ Federal Emergency Bunker Wall Street Liberty Island Pathway Park Stranded Tanker The Tombs Loot General Added all new season 2 weapons/gear to general loot pools Item Power Updated item power distribution to have a better spread between minimum and maximum for all difficulties Increased minimum rolled item power for Field Proficiency/DZ caches, Clan caches and Season caches. Difficulty Scaling Regular loot from loot containers in Missions now scale with mission difficulty Targeted loot from loot containers in Missions now scales with mission difficulty Loot containers part of living world activities now scale with global difficulty Targeted loot Increased targeted loot drop chances for all mission and Control Point difficulties Added new season 2 brand to targeted loot rotation Warlords of New York brands can now also show up as targeted loot in DC, including Dark Zones Named Items Increased named item drop chance in regular Dark Zone loot Increased named item drop chance in targeted loot everywhere Exotics Added Warlords of New York/Season 1 Exotics (excluding The Bighorn) to targeted loot Added Warlords of New York/Season 1 Exotics (excluding The Bighorn) to general Exotic loot pools (Heroic/Legendary/Raid/Exotic Cache) Coyote's Mask drop from Coyote no longer has a minimum season level requirement Control Points Removed regular weapon/gear loot containers not scaling with difficulty from Control Points Increased the amount of scaling loot from the big Control Point reward container Legendary Increased NPC loot drop chance for Veterans and Elites on Legendary difficulty Crafting Crafting will now guarantee a higher minimum item power, resulting in higher overall stat rolls. An increased maximum item power also allows for better crafted items than before. The added weighting between the minimum and maximum power results in a more balanced average outcome for crafted and reconfigured items Removed final World Tier 5 crafting bench upgrade, as its power increase is now redundant Vendors Added Named Items to both Open World and Dark Zone vendors Increased prices for Named Items Increased item power for all vendors Vendors no longer sell Superior quality items at maximum level SHD Levels Added Field Proficiency cache to SHD level-up after reaching the maximum season level Increased crafting material rewards for spending SHD level points in the Scavenging category Conflict Added Season/SHD experience gain on Conflict level-up Rogue Agent Encounters Every Rogue Agent killed will now drop loot Rogue Agent encounters no longer occur during time trials Control Point Officers Players revived by a Control Point Officer will now have 80% of their armor restored (Previously 0%) Reduced the likelihood of Control Point Officers being downed in combat Bounties Bounties acquired by speaking to characters in the open world will always be set to the difficulty at time of acquisition or higher. This affects the Snitch and civilians rescued during the Public Execution or Rescue Living World Activities. Scheduled bounties, such as daily and clan bounties, are unaffected. Developer comment: Bounties acquired in the open world should always provide challenge and loot appropriate to the world they were acquired in. Upping your global difficulty now has the added benefit of improving all bounties you acquire within it. Projects New Season Pass Holder Project Slot. Season Pass holders now have access to an exclusive daily mission which provides a large bonus to XP. Weekly SHD Requisition Project Slot Endgame players at World Tier 5 and Level 40 now have a weekly supplies donation project which rewards them with an exotic cache. (For World Tier 5 players, this replaces the previous daily SHD Requisition project.) Legendary Mission Project After TU10, completing any legendary mission will grant you the Weekly Legendary Mission project slot. Completing the designated legendary mission will reward you with an exotic cache. Developer comment: With the addition of "re-rolls" to exotics available through crafting, we created the new Weekly projects to provide a reliable supply of exotic components or exotic items. RPG Balance Incoming Repairs Incoming Repairs no longer increases the amount of armor repaired by armor kits, talents or gear set effects. Developer comment: Incoming Repairs was always meant to be the defensive attribute equivalent to Repair Skills, so that players could further enhance the amount of healing they receive from their skills, or the group's healer. Unfortunately, the underlying code prevented us from differentiating between alternate sources of armor repair, such as those from talents and gear sets like Foundry Bulwark, or Firewall's unique armor kit effect. We wanted to address this during the development of Warlords of New York, but chose to post-pone the fix in order to deal with higher priority issues at the time. We underestimated the extent to which this attribute would affect the new Warlords meta, and failed to predict the severity of degenerate gameplay it would cause when combined with certain talents or gear sets. It's important to stress that this is not a PvP-only issue, or an instance of the PvP environment affecting PvE balance. Incoming Repairs was compromising both aspects of the game, and needed to be addressed, especially considering this update coincides with the release of a new raid. Not addressing the issue would mean forcing ourselves to balance all existing and future gear and talents around the knowledge that players could potentially (read: very likely) double the amount of repairs they receive, which stifles creativity and effectively limits player choice. Weapon Handling 1% Weapon Handling now gives 1% Weapon Accuracy, Stability, Reload Speed, and Swap Speed, up from 0.25%. Reduced the maximum amount of Weapon Handling rolled on gear by 6%, to a maximum of 8% at level 40. Developer comment: In the current meta, Weapon Handling on gear is considered a dead stat with no significant benefit. In TU10, equipping a piece of gear with +8% Weapon Handling will now give you: +8% Accuracy +8% Stability +8% Swap Speed +8% Reload Speed This should hopefully make Weapon Handling a strong complimentary attribute for players looking to increase their overall accuracy/stability (bloom + recoil) and/or reload/swap speed. Making the % amount of Weapon Accuracy/Stability/Swap Speed/Reload Speed gained from Weapon Handling 1:1 will also remove another element of arcane knowledge from the game and reduce the need for additional mental math when determining whether the bonus is an upgrade or not. Talent Changes: Leadership: Bonus Armor increased to 15% from 12% Spike: Skill Damage Duration increased to 15s from 8s Reformation: Skill Repair Duration increased to 15s from 8s Creeping Death: No Longer goes on cooldown if there are no valid nearby enemies to apply a status effect to. Status effects applied now properly copy the source status effect’s damage and duration. PvP Global Damage Modifiers Reduced all PvP weapon damage by -20% Additional Damage Modifiers Increased MMR PvP weapon damage by 12.5% Reduced Assault Rifle PvP weapon damage by -15% Reduced Shotgun PvP damage by -12.5% Reduced SMG PvP damage by -10% Reduced Pistol PvP damage by -10% Reduced Rifle PvP damage by -5% _Developer comment: With TU10, there have been significant buffs made to the base damage of assault rifles, SMGs, and shotguns in particular. In order to prevent those weapons from becoming overly powerful in PvP, we’ve had to lower their PvP damage modifiers to compensate. Note: Assault rifles are still tuned to be 10% stronger than normal in PvP in order to compensate for their innate Damage to Health bonus being less useful against other players when compared to other weapon archetypes._ Specific Damage Modifiers Increased Double Barrel Shotgun PvP damage by 16.6% Reduced Pestilence PvP damage by -10% Reduced Classic M1A damage by -5% Exotic Modifiers Merciless/Ruthless: “Binary Trigger” amplified weapon damage and explosion damage reduced by -50% in PvP Dodge City Gunslinger’s Holster: “Quick Draw” damage bonus gained per stack in PvP lowered from +2% to +1% Stacks gained per second in PvP now match the PvE value (0.5s to 0.3s) Imperial Dynasty: No longer automatically applies burn status effect to the nearest enemy in range. Now requires maintaining range and LOS (line-of-sight) for 3 seconds between the holster bearer and nearest enemy before applying the burn status effect. Added visual UI feedback to reveal the radius of effect in PvP and an indicator for LOS between the holster bearer and nearest enemy. Developer comment: This should help address the lack of contextual feedback in PvP, and add a much needed window of opportunity for counterplay, or potential to avoid the incoming effect entirely. Pestilence * Plague of the Outcast damage-over-time effect no longer triggers True Patriot’s white debuff armor repair effect. (PvP and PvE) Developer comment: While we like to embrace emergent or unintended mechanics when the end result is unique and fun gameplay, True Patriot’s white debuff explicitly states it requires shooting the debuffed target in order to receive the armor repair effect. Pestilence’s DoT managed to bypass this restriction, making it and True Patriot (especially when combined with Incoming Repairs) scale to disproportionate levels of power when used together. Gear Set Modifiers Negotiator’s Dilemma Reduced the range at which marked targets can damage each other when critically hit to 15m (PvP only). Added visual UI feedback when in range of another marked target. Talent Modifiers Efficient: Reduced specialization armor kit bonus from 100% to 50% Versatile: Reduced the amplified weapon damage bonus for SMGs and shotguns from 35% to 25% Vanguard: Reduced the duration of shield invulnerability from 5s to 2s Note: UI will still show the old duration, but will be fixed in a later update. Specialization Modifiers * Firewall * Extracellular Matrix Mesh armor kit regen strength reduced by -50%, from 200% to 150% Skill Modifiers Pulse now correctly reveals and highlights all players in the DZ, not just hostiles/rogues Increased Striker Drone damage by 30% Increased Assault Turret damage by 55% Reduced Firestarter Chem Launcher PvP damage by -20% Reduced Bleed damage from Stinger Hive, Mortar Turret and Explosive Seeker Mine by 75% Increased Stinger Hive damage by 20%, scaling up to 55% at skill tier 6 Developer commentary: We want dedicated skill builds to have multiple, powerful defensive tools for area denial/control. However, the strength of bleed effects meant being hit by just 1 stinger drone, mortar, or seeker mine was nearly a death sentence for most builds. The stinger hive should now better punish players who remain within its area of effect, rather than needing to rely entirely on the excessive damage of a single bleed DoT, while allowing the hive’s drone damage to scale higher for dedicated skill builds. Weapon Balance Assault Rifles AK-M – 15.8% damage increase F2000 – 14.3% damage increase Military AK-M – 13.2% damage increase Black Market AK-M – 13.2% damage increase FAL – 12.0% damage increase FAL SA-58 – 12.0% damage increase FAL SA-58 Para – 12.0% damage increase SOCOM Mk 16 – 11.4% damage increase Tactical Mk 16 – 11.4% damage increase Mk 16 – 11.4% damage increase AUG A3-CQC – 11.2% damage increase Honey Badger – 10.9% damage increase FAMAS 2010 – 10.6% damage increase ACR – 9.7% damage increase ACR-E – 9.7% damage increase Military G36 – 9.5% damage increase G36 C – 9.5% damage increase G36 Enhanced – 9.5% damage increase Carbine 7 – 8.7 % damage increase Military P416 – 7.4% damage increase Custom P416 G3 - 7.4% damage increase Police M4 – 6.8% damage increase CTAR 21 – 8.6% damage increase LMG Classic M60 – 12.5% damage increase Classic RPK-74 – 12.4% damage increase Military RPK-74 M – 12.4% damage increase Black Market RPK-74 E – 12.4% damage increase Military M60 E4 – 9.2% damage increase Black Market M60 E6 – 9.2% damage increase Military L86 LSW – 8.5% damage increase Custom L86 A2 – 8.5% damage increase IWI NEGEV – 2.6% damage increase Stoner LMG – 2.0% damage increase M249 B – No changes Tactical M249 Para – No changes Military MK46 – No changes MG5 – No changes Infantry MG5 – 3.2% damage decrease MMR Model 700 – 14.9% damage increase Hunting M44 – 13.5% damage increase Classic M44 Carbine – 12.5% damage increase G28 – 11.4% damage increase SOCOM Mk20 SSR – 9.3% damage increase SR-1 - 8.6% damage increase Custom M44 – 8.1% damage increase M700 Tactical – 8.1% damage increase M700 Carbon – 8.1% damage increase Covert SRS – 6.0% damage increase SRS A1 – 6.0% damage increase Surplus SVD – 2.9% damage decrease Paratrooper SVD – 2.9% damage decrease Rifles UIC15 MOD – 21.6% damage increase 1886 – 21.3% damage increase LVOA-C – 12.1% damage increase M1A CQB – 10.7% damage increase Lightweight M4 – 10.5% damage increase G 716 CQB – 8.7% damage increase SIG 716 – 6.7% damage increase ACR SS – 3.7% damage increase SOCOM M1A – No changes M16A2 – No changes USC .45 ACP - 2.8% damage decrease Urban MDR – 5.5% damage decrease Military Mk17 – 11.8% damage decrease Police Mk17 - 11.8% damage decrease Classic M1A - 12.6% damage decrease SMG Tommy Gun – 38.8% damage increase PP-19 – 29.6% damage increase Enhanced PP-19 – 29.6% damage increase MP7 – 27.5% damage increase MPX – 17.7% damage increase M1928 – 20.0% damage increase P90 – 15.6% damage increase Converted SMG-9 – 15.8% damage increase Black Market T821 – 15.4% damage increase Police T821 – 15.4% damage increase Vector SBR .45 ACP – 14.7% damage increase CMMG Banshee – 12.5% damage increase Police UMP-45 – 12.0% damage increase Tactical UMP-45 – 12.0% damage increase AUG A3 Para XS – 11.8% damage increase Enhanced AUG A3P – 11.8 % damage increase Tactical AUG A3P – 11.8% damage increase Converted SMG-9 A2 – 11.6% damage increase MP5A2 – 10.0% damage increase MP5-N – 10.0% damage increase MP5 ST – 10.0% damage increase Tactical Vector SBR 9mm – 5.9% damage increase Shotguns M870 Express – 23.3% damage increase Military M870 – 23.3% damage increase Custom M870 MCS – 23.3% damage increase Super 90 – 23.2% damage increase Marine Super 90 – 23.2% damage increase Tactical Super 90 SBS – 23.2% damage increase SASG-12 – 21.3% damage increase Tactical SASG-12 K – 21.3% damage increase Black Market SASG-12 S – 21.3% damage increase SPAS-12 – 18.6% damage increase KSG Shotgun – 9.0% damage increase Sidearms Double Barrel Sawed Off Shotgun – Optimal Range reduced to 8m from 11m 586 Magnum – 68.8% damage increase Police 686 Magnum – 68.8% damage increase Maxim 9 - 23.5% damage increase D50 – 17.5% damage increase First Wave PF45 – 13.5% damage increase Custom PF45 – 9.7% damage increase Military M9 – 8.7% damage increase 93R - 7.7% damage increase Snubnosed Diceros – 6.5% damage increase Officer's M9 A1 – 6.3% damage increase Diceros – 5.9% damage increase M45A1 – 9.5% damage decrease Tactical M1911 – 9.5% damage decrease M1911 – 7.3% damage decrease Exotics Changes Developer comment: Along with the buffs to weapon damage, TU10's significant buff to weapon handling meant some exotic weapon mods no longer made sense or resulted in over tuned performance that no longer fit with the original design. We also took this opportunity to make improvements to underperforming exotic The Bighorn Damage increased by +11.2% Increased optimal range from 27m to 40m Optics mod bonus increased from +0% to +30% Headshot Damage Magazine mod bonus changed from +7% Headshot Damage to +10% Reload Speed Added functionality that provides additional headshot damage, full talent is now: When scoped, switches to semi-automatic fire mode, dealing 450% weapon damage with each shot. (New) Headshots grant +2% headshot damage. Stacks up to 50 times. Resets to 0 at full stacks. Eagle Bearer Damage increased by +7.8% Underbarrel mod bonus changed from +10% Stability to +10% Weapon Handling Chameleon Damage increased by +32.8% Optics mod bonus changed from +15% Accuracy to +15% Critical Hit Chance Muzzle mod bonus changed from +5% Critical Hit Chance to +20% Accuracy Underbarrel mod bonus changed from +10% Critical Hit Chance to +10% Stability Optimal range increased by 33.3%, from 15m to 20m Long range effectiveness increased by 19%, from 42m to 50m Added functionality that retains your current buffs to the next combat encounter when combat ends, full talent is now: Hitting 30 headshots grant +20% critical hit chance and +50% critical hit damage for 45s. Hitting 75 body-shots grant +90% weapon damage for 45s. Hitting 30 leg-shots grant +150% reload speed for 45s. (New) Buffs refresh when out of combat. Bullet King Damage increased by +2.6% Nemesis Damage increased by +11.1% Optics mod bonus increased from +35% to +45% Headshot Damage Underbarrel mod bonus reduced from +15% to +5% Weapon Handling Liberty Optics mod bonus changed from +5% Critical Hit Chance to +5% Headshot Damage Muzzle mod bonus changed from +15% Stability to +5% Critical Hit Chance Magazine mod bonus changed from +15% Reload Speed to +15% Weapon Handling Added functionality to provide extra damage if you're trying to keep stacks, full talent is now: (New) Hits grant +2% weapon damage. Stacks up to 30. Headshots consume all stacks, repairing your shield for 3% per stack. No longer highlights enemy weakpoints when aiming. Merciless/Ruthless Damage increased by +12.5% Muzzle mod bonus reduced from +20% to +10% Stability Underbarrel mod bonus reduced from +20% to +10% Weapon Handling Magazine mod bonus reduced from +15% to +10% Reload Speed Added functionality to provide extra non-explosive damage as well, full talent is now: This weapon fires on trigger pull and release. If both bullets hit the same enemy, gain a stack. (New) At 7 stacks, shooting an enemy deals 500% amplified damage and creates a 7m explosion dealing 500% weapon damage, consuming the stacks. Developer Comment: Merciless was previously balanced for its very unwieldy handling and compensated with very high burst damage. With access to much higher accuracy and stability, Binary Trigger’s explosion strength has been toned down. Diamondback Damage increased by +7.7% Text updated to clarify a new target isn’t marked until after the 5s buff. Lullaby/Sweet Dreams Damage increased by +11.0% Lady Death Damage increased by +18.9% Optics mod bonus increased from +5% to +10% Critical Hit Chance Muzzle mod bonus changed from +5% Critical Hit Chance to +5% Critical Hit Damage Underbarrel mod changed from +5% Critical Hit Damage to +500% Melee Damage Breathe Free: Lowered the amount of maximum stacks from 40 to 32, and increased the damage amplification per stack from 60% to 75% The Chatterbox Damage increased by +16.7% Optics mod bonus increased from +5% to +15% Critical Hit Chance Muzzle mod bonus changed from +10% Critical Hit Chance to +5% Critical Hit Damage Underbarrel mod bonus reduced from +15% to +10% Weapon Handling Magazine mod bonus changed from +10% Reload Speed to +10 Rounds Magazine base capacity reduced from 60 to 50 Pestilence Muzzle mod bonus changed from +10% Stability to +10% Accuracy Underbarrel mod bonus changed from +10% Weapon Handling to +10% Stability NinjaBike Messenger Kneepads Added functionality to add bonus armor, full talent is now: (New) Performing a cover to cover or vaulting reloads your drawn weapon and grants +25% bonus armor for 5s. Dodge City Gunslinger Holster Added functionality that makes your hit do headshot damage, full talent is now: While your pistol is holstered, gain a stacking buff every 0.3s, up to 100. When you swap to it, your first shot consumes the buff and deals +10% damage per stack. (New) This deals headshot damage to anywhere you hit. BTSU Datagloves Changed functionality to no longer grant group/raid-wide overcharge unless you are skill tier 6 Added functionality to provide hive skill haste, full talent is now: (New) Grants +15% Hive skill haste per skill tier. (Changed) Detonating a hive refreshes your skill cooldowns and grants overcharge for 15s.If at Skill Tier 6, this effect also applies to all allies. Allies receiving this effect are unable to benefit from it again for 120s. Sawyer's Kneeguards Added functionality to continue to provide damage bonus move for a short duration, full talent is now: Cannot be staggered by explosions. Increases total weapon damage by 3% each second you are not moving. Stacks up to 10 until you start moving. (New) All stacks lost 10s after moving. Gear Set Changes Hard Wired Feedback Loop no longer fully refreshes the cooldown of a skill, but instead reduces it by up to 30s Ongoing Directive Main Talent Hollow-Point Ammo is no longer dropped on kill, and instead automatically added to your active weapon when killing status afflicted enemies Backpack Talent (New) “Trauma Specialist” Increases the duration of your bleed status effects by 50% and all bleed damage done by 100% Increased 3-piece Reload Speed bonus from +20% to +30% Tip of the Spear Main Talent (PVE) Aggressive Recon's weapon damage buff is now gained when dealing specialization weapon damage, instead of on specialization weapon kill Main Talent (PVP) Aggressive Recon's weapon damage buff is now gained when dealing grenade damage, instead of on grenade kill Backpack Talent (New) “Signature Moves” Increases specialization weapon damage by 20%, and doubles the amount of specialization ammo generated by Aggressive Recon Aces and Eights Main Talent "Poker Face" backpack talent is now a baseline effect: Flip an additional card on headshots Backpack Talent (New) “Ace in the Sleeve” Amplifies 1 extra shot when revealing your hand 3-piece Headshot Damage bonus is now additive, rather than multiplicative Increased 3-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +20% to +30% System Corruption Main Talent Now repairs 20% of your armor in addition to granting 50% bonus armor Increases total weapon damage by 1% per 5% bonus armor gained, up to 20% Striker’s Battlegear Main Talent Reduced the number of stacks lost on missed shots from 3 to 2 Backpack Talent No longer reduces number of stacks lost on missed shots (New) Increases total weapon damage gained per stack of Striker's Gamble from 0.5% to 0.65%. Negotiators Dilemma Damage transfers on the initial bullet that marks a new target Hard Wired Increased 3-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +30% Brand Set Changes Alps Summit Armament Increased 1-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +20% Murakami Industries Increased 2-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +20% Richter & Kaiser Increased 3-piece Repair Skills bonus from +15% to +20% Incoming Repairs brand set bonus increased from +15% to +20% Providence Defense Increased 1-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +10% to +15% Airaldi Holdings Increased 2-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +10% to +15% Grupo Sombra S.A Increased 3-piece Headshot Damage bonus from +10% to +15% Overlord Armaments Increased 2-piece Accuracy bonus from +10% to +20% Douglas & Harding Increased 2-piece Stability bonus from +10% to +20% Increased 3-piece Accuracy bonus from +10% to +20% Fenris Group AB Increased 2-piece Reload Speed bonus from +10% to +20% Increased 3-piece Stability bonus from +10% to +20% Specialization Changes Gunner specialization's Emplacement talent Weapon Handling bonus reduced from +15% to +10% Note: The UI will incorrectly say it still adds +15% Weapon Handling. This will be fixed in a future update. Skill Changes UI Stinger Hive, Mortar Turret, and Explosive Seeker Mine now display its Bleed Damage and Duration Seeker Mine Cluster Seeker Mine targeting accuracy improved Developer comment: The Cluster Seeker Mine is not intended to be as accurate as the Explosive variant. Once it is a certain distance from its target it locks the location it is aiming for and continues towards that regardless of where its original target agent has since moved to. This "bullcharge" behavior reflects the mini-mines' less advanced technology and balances the skill mod's effectiveness. This said, we have noticed that the Cluster Seeker's accuracy has been a source of frustration so we've shortened the distance until it activates its "bullcharge" and adjusted when it decides to explode. These adjustments should make the Cluster Seeker feel more accurate, but these are measured steps as we do not want the skill to return to its OP TU7-state. Hive Stinger Hive base damage reduced -20% Stinger Hive damage bonus per skill tier increased from +10% to +20% Developer comment: In order to make investing in skill tiers have a greater impact on the Stinger Hive's damage, we slightly reduced base drone damage, while doubling the amount of damage gained with each skill tier. These changes will result in a net buff for dedicated skill builds, with a 10% increase in Stinger Hive drone damage at skill tier 6. Restorer hive gains +5% drone flight speed per skill tier Developer comment: Increases to the Restorer Hive's radius had the unfortunate effect of increasing the time it took for repair drones to reach their target the further they were from the hive. Increasing drone flight speed with each skill tier should help offset that somewhat counter-intuitive behavior when taking advantage of the increased area of effect, and make the Restorer Hive a more reliable tool for healers. Chem Launcher Riot Foam Chem Launcher ensnare duration bonus per skill tier reduced from +20% to +10% Reinforcer Chem Launcher: UI has been updated to clarify that the initial heal only affects allies and not the Skill user. The functionality has not changed. Firefly Blinder Firefly blind duration bonus per skill tier reduced from +20% to +10% Blinder Firefly base blind duration reduced from 6s to 5s Pulse Banshee Pulse cooldown increased from 20s to 30s Banshee Pulse base confuse duration reduced from 5s to 4s Jammer Pulse base disrupt duration reduced from 4s to 3s Shock Trap Shock Trap base shock duration reduced from 5s to 3s (PvP duration remains unchanged) Shock Trap base radius increased from 2m to 2.5m When the active duration ends, its cooldown is refunded an equal number of seconds that it was active. Further Bugfixes: => Source submitted by JokerUnique to thedivision [link] [comments] [PI] It's more than likely that Covid-19 will still be around at Christmas time - how are we going to explain to kids that Santa is still allowed to go into millions of houses? I originally posted this in response to this AskReddit post. I recognize that it is nowhere near Christmas, but everyone needs a dose of alternate history once in a while. I apologize for the dry nature of this post. It was definitely written as an exercise in recording my stream of consciousness. At the very most, this can be considered a brief world-building experiment. TL:DR; For ethical reasons, your personal Santa does not live long enough to contract or transmit COVID '19. To properly understand Santa's COVID resistance, children will have to be let in on the secret history of the Kringle Consortium, and the ancient conspiracy behind our modern Christmas traditions. This may be shocking to many children, so it is up to parents to choose when and how to expose their children to the truth. I consider it the same as explaining to a child where chicken nuggets come from; They may initially be disturbed by the truth, but knowing will eventually help them grow into well-rounded adults. With that in mind, I present a chronological history and brief analysis of the Christmas Conspiracy, in 9 parts. Part 1: Ancient History (300AD - 550AD) Santa Claus was initially a mortal man - Nicholas of Myra (270 AD – 343 AD). He was a Catholic bishop in what is now Turkey, who saw the state of the poor, and would occasionally help by leaving anonymous gifts of toys, food, and money outside their homes in the night. When Nicholas died, a dedicated cabal of Christians memorialized him by secretly leaving anonymous presents for the poor in his name, on the date of his death, December 6th. Unfortunately, Christianity underwent an exponential growth phase, under the Holy Roman Empire, and soon there were tens of thousands of Christians needed to run this operation and to maintain the myth of an immortal St Nicholas. From about 500AD, they had realized that many cities had no idea who Nicholas of Myra was or what he looked like, and belief in him was waning, in favor of various local fairies and goblins. The Cabal of St Nicholas, as they were known by then, had taken to arranging sightings of "St Nicholas", dressed in his iconic vestments, to combat this doubt, but they were facing an issue. At some point, people would compare descriptions of the Faux Nicholas' features. They needed reliable continuity. Thus began the first major undertaking of this group. Part 2: Wax Santa and the Travelling Corpse (550AD - 1100AD) Like many holy men of the time, Nicholas of Myra's body had been painstakingly preserved and maintained, rather than being left to decay. This gave the cabal a couple of options. First, they made molds of Nicholas's face, and constructed very detailed wax masks that could be worn when delivering gifts. These, when combined with a small costume change to obscure most of the head (this is the origin of Santa's hooded and fringed coat), allowed the gift-bringers to seem identical to the occasional child or drunkard who caught a glimpse of their activities. However, this alone wasn't enough. The wax masks were rigid, and wouldn't pass close inspection. Santa needed to be able to occasionally make carefully managed appearances where he would speak or be seen to nod and wink or similar actions. In or around 750AD, the cabal hired the services of Boutros Al-Hadrami, a Moorish master puppeteer, to help them resolve this issue. Al-Hadrami rigged wires and armatures to Nicholas' actual preserved corpse, to allow it to be manipulated as a sort of puppet. By all accounts Al-Hadrami was the only Turkish man available with both the skill and strength needed to operate this macabre marionette, so he travelled from town to town for decades, operating the "Hero Nicholas" puppet. Eventually, the presence of this seemingly silent, massive black man had to be incorporated into the myth; and so began the stories of Black Peter or Krampus, depending on the region. Part 3: The Crusades and the Age of Automation (1100AD - 1600AD) Around 1100AD, the Knights Templar came into power within the Church, and folded many other secret orders under their direct authority. This included the Cabal of St Nicholas. The Knights Templar were a smaller organization at the time, and were focused in part on simplifying and reducing the number of convolutions and complexities that each order added to the Faith. To that end, they were responsible for moving the date of Nicholas' appearances to December 24th, to coincide with other Christmas operations of the time, as well as reducing monetary expenditures, by giving only childrens toys, rather than money or food. The Knights Templar were exceedingly well-funded by the riches they attained during the Crusades, but they were also extremely cautious with their money. By all accounts, they were the ones who began to run the conspiracy like a business, rather than a religious observance. They introduced dolls in the form of Saint Nicholas for the poor, as well as running an underground network where well-off families could pay a premium to have their child visited by St Nicholas. These rich families would even be able to select the toy that Nicholas would bring their child (thus introducing the idea of a Christmas list). The Nicholas puppet had been rarely used since the death of Al-Hadrami, as few could even come close to managing to operate the puppet, with any sense of realism.. The knights had resorted to purchasing slaves specifically for their strength, then training them to operate the puppet, but this route was producing less and less convincing performances. Eventually, the Knights would hire Leonardo da Vinci himself to design a new form of puppet, operated entirely by springs and gears. This new "automaton" would play one of several pre-recorded actions from a pegged programming disk. However, it's size and weight made standing performances impossible. To hide the mechanical components, and to conceal the actor providing Nicholas' voice, a large sledge was added to the myth, upon which Nicholas would be seated. To prevent close examination, this sledge was hoisted onto rooftops, and a story was concocted about flying from home to home, to deliver presents via the chimney. However, by the end of the 15th century, it became clear that the Knights had a new problem. Christianity was spreading rapidly outside of Europe, into Africa, Asia, and even the new American continent. There was no way that they could maintain the myth across that large an area, with their current scale, and there was no way to transport the Nicholas Automaton to the new world, without significant risk of loss, damage, or exposure. The myth needed revising, yet again. Part 4: The Lapland Illusion (1600AD - 1900AD) By the mid 1600s, the invention of the steam engine and the burgeoning field of optics had drawn the attention of the Knights. They needed a way to manifest "Father Christmas" (as St Nicholas was becoming known) around the world, without the logistics of world travel, so they turned to optics. Building off the research of Galileo and his peers, Jesuit Priest, Christoph Scheiner, worked with the knights to develop a series of collimating lenses and optical repeaters that could be secreted within strategic church bell-towers, which would take an image, projected at a high brightness from a few sources, and relay it from church to eventually project a moving image onto cloud cover in many locations, potentially thousands of miles away. However, to implement this new technology, they needed to produce a massive amount of light and motion at the origin point, without drawing attention. These hubs were built in low population areas around the world. We only know the precise locations of a few of these hubs, but they include Lapland, Tunguska, Alaska (at that time Eastern Russia), and Greenland. It is unknown how many of these projections were actually produced, or what the effective area was for each northern operations center, but this time period was when the flying sleigh and reindeer entered the mythos. The funding for this massive undertaking came from possibly the strangest place yet. In 1670, the knights began marketing "Candy Canes" as a Christmas confection that looked like St Nicholas' shepherd's crook (aka his bishop's staff). Soon this candy (little more than common sugar and peppermint extract) was a staple of the holiday season. On a darker note, the commercialization of the Nicholas Conspiracy was almost complete by this point, and the manufacturing and door-to-door labor was almost entirely done by young orphans, who were paid in basic room and board. Most of these orphans didn't live to see adulthood. These "elves" were just another victim of corporate greed. As central banks became common, the Knights Templar, now known as the Freemasons, began to divest their holdings into a group of large corporations, to launder the funds and divide and hide their large expenditures. This group of companies was called the Christkindl Consortium, or Christ-child consortium. Among the notable members were: The Federal Reserve, The Royal Bank of England, Lord and Taylor, Macy's, Hallmark, and Coca Cola. Part 5: The Pre-Modern Era (1900AD - 1950AD) Advancements in photography and aeronautics began to pose an existential threat to the myth of Father Christmas. An airplane could theoretically interrupt a beam path or photograph an apparition from the wrong angle. Furthermore, the isolated regions that they operated from were becoming more and more accessible to travellers. And so, the Kris Kringle Consortium, as it had become known to its American members, began a shadow arms race against the world. Initially, things were going well, advancements in miniaturization and global power distribution seemed to indicate that they were less than a decade away from being able to produce and control full 3d apparitions of Santa from completely local base stations. Something the size of a police call box could have served an entire village. But on Jun 30th 1908, disaster struck. A test of a power transmission tower in New York overloaded several prototype image transmitters in the Tunguska research facility, causing a massive explosion that demolished the entire facility. There were no survivors. It was decided that the future of St Nicholas lay on a completely different path, and research was halted on the global poweimage transmission technology. Much of the developed hardware was eventually simplified and commercialized by another Kringle member, RCA. And thus, the age of television was born. Meanwhile, the consortium shifted all funding into high-energy physics and biology, hoping to discover a fundamental paradigm shift. This was expensive, but by now, making money from Christmas was second nature to the group. They tasked Coca Cola, of all organizations, to develop a new worldwide branding for St Nicholas, complete with product tie-ins in every vertical. In the 1930s, this campaign launched, and the world finally met Santa Claus. Unfortunately, the two world wars didn't completely bypass the Kringle Consortium. Hitler, being a consumate business man, became aware that some of his nations businesses had significant world-wide holiday reach, and he demanded that these member companies divulge the secrets of the Consortium to Nazi high command. In 1942, Nazi Germany siezed control of the northern hub in Lapland, and used it to distribute propaganda gifts throughout mainland Europe for almost 2 years, only being successfully driven out in November of 1944. In the process, the Germans destroyed the hub, and killed all employees. It was, in fact, a direct response to this occupation that led to a certain group of Kringle-affiliated particle physicists being brought together in the Nevada desert to find a way to definitively win the war for the Allies. Part 6: Multiverse Traversal (1950 AD - Present) In 1952, Irwin Schrodinger had the breakthrough that made modern Christmas possible. He was a Kringle-sponsored physicist, working on understanding quantum phenomena. Irwin had previously hypothesized that until the state of the universe is observed, it is in a state of quantum superposition, where all possible outcomes exist simultaneously. These possible outcomes represent the infinite probable variants of our universe. Observing the system collapses all the other possibilities, except the one which is selected, effectively ending these infinite and unique universes. With the assistance of Richard Feynman, Schodinger made a further discovery in 1955. He discovered how to isolate specific objects from the quantum superposition, and cause them to persist in our universe, even after the collapse of their source universe. Using this discovery, real versions of Saint Nicholas could be selected from universes where they lived in contemporary times, and where they were about to present a gift to any given child in the world. This discovery had almost limitless potential for the consortium's mission, but came with serious ethical considerations. The machine made no separation between objects and people. Anything could be pulled from the waves of the Quantum Foam, just by providing accurate targeting parameters. The few members of the Catholic Magisterium tasked with oversight of the project were adamant that it could not be used on a human. They believed that either the resulting human would have a soul, in which case they would have to admit that every choice we make destroys an infinite number of human lives, or it would be a soulless homunculus, imitating humanity in open defiance of God. Either was seen as an abomination. The project was firmly restricted to whiteboards and notebook math for another 5 years, until a compromise was reached. The design was modified to allow for two types of extraction: permanent and temporary. A permanent extraction manifested physical objects from other universes, but would not allow for the extraction of anything living. Meanwhile, a temporary extraction would last only until the quantum waveform was collapsed, by observation. At that time, a temporary extraction would return to their own universe, and cease to exist. However, none of the scientists or business men could be trusted to operate the machine continuously. Instead, a board of executives would meet once a year, and would summon a single temporary overseer. One whose trustworthiness, ethical purity, and commitment to the cause could never be questioned, as it was confirmed by Mother Church herself. Part 7: Nicholas Springs Eternal (Present) On December 26th of each year, the executive board of the Kringle Consortium meets in one of two locations, The HAARP center in Alaska or the Pine Gap base in Australia, and ask their quantum machine a single, binary question: "Does the human race deserve joy." This question is used as the basis of a quantum superposition which is sustained for an entire year, and which is used to manifest that year's Santa Prime (sometimes humorously called Old Nick, or The King in Red). This incarnation of Saint Nicolas (or simulacrum thereof) is immediately given full control of the machine and of all associated resources, to prepare for the next Christmas. Over the course of the year, question after question is queued into the machine's massive registers, with all the associated intelligence needed to answer it. "Is [James Voorst, Sally Embry, Xiu Chen, etc] NAUGHTY or NICE?". Old Nick's job is to ensure that no answer is predetermined, and no name is missed. On December 24, as the first time zone reaches midnight, the machine's primary function is triggered, and Santa Prime takes his seat as observer. Hundreds of thousands of superpositions are created every second, and the machine selects the best universe match it can find within an time for walking the tree. From that universe, the relevant gift is permanently manifested, and the relevant santa is temporarily manifested to deliver it. Once delivered, and properly out of sight, the result of the machine is observed by Santa Prime, destroying any evidence of that local Santa's existence, except for the gift, and perhaps as a final mercy to the deceased, a consumed final meal of milk and cookies. When at last his nightly harvest is done, the King in Red, would-be savior of the poor and executioner to millions of his own kin, lays down for his own winter's nap, never to wake. Part 8: How Does This all Relate to COVID '19? Children can be assured that the universe pruning algorithm has been designed to reject any universe in which an ongoing pandemic threatens the health of the child. Santa will be perfectly healthy when he delivers your gift, and then will be ethically disposed of in the collapse of the quantum waveform. Part 9: Frequently Asked Questions Why doesn't every child get presents? Why isn't every present perfect? Why do children sometimes see their parents place their gifts? The universe selection algorithm is a variant of a MIN/MAX pruning of an infinite binary tree of universes. 1.5+ billion of these selections need to occur every night. So naturally, there is a timeout that will select the best universe evaluated, even if it doesn't meet the minimum threshold for a perfect santa experience. The project targets year over year improvements in this field, rather than perfection. What about bad santas? Could one be selected by accident? Unfortunately, a small number of casualties must be considered acceptable by the project. That's why suicide and abduction rates all increase slightly around Christmas. This has been identified as an opportunity for potential improvement of the project in future years. What about Santa Prime? Could we ever select a bad one? Thankfully the longevity of Santa Prime's manifestation allows the machine to perform a much more exhaustive search of the multiverse. So long as there is a reasonable chance that the Prime question could be answered "yes", we should never receive a negative Prime Manifestation. So, you tell me, "Does the world deserve Joy?" submitted by gschoppe to HFY [link] [comments] A New Perspective on Happiness https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/11/26/20975997/happy-therapy-mental-health-antidepressants " 'No one sits down [for therapy] and says, ‘Are you happy?’' says Candice Ferguson, who is running for a Colorado state representative seat. “They say, ‘Are you sad? Are you depressed? Are you whatever.’ But no one tries [to] say that you’re going to be happy during your treatments, or once they’ve sent you on your way.' Ferguson, who was sexually abused as a child and lived on her own before she graduated from high school, had a series of miscarriages in her 20s. She started having panic attacks. She sought a psychiatrist and was prescribed medication — now, at 43, she continues with therapy to maintain her health and is speaking publicly about her mental health history for the first time. She prefers not to view her well-being in terms as stark as being happy or not, which she feels can set up those with mental health issues for failure. 'Happiness is a dangerous carrot to dangle,' she says. Among those living with mental illness, there’s a shared experience of your health being judged by whether or not you seem “happy.” Despite the increasingly popular refrain that everyone should be in therapy, many still think of therapy as something you need when you’re not content with life. 'I’ve had people tell me, ‘Oh, but you always seem like such a happy guy already,’' says Vardaan Arora, a 27-year-old New Yorker who has obsessive-compulsive disorder. 'But even if someone presents as quote-unquote happy, it doesn’t necessarily mean anything. And also, you can have a mental illness, and have bad days, and still have good days.' It’s a popular myth that mental health and happiness exist on the same side of a binary. Depression in particular is portrayed as the opposite of happiness — but happiness is an emotional state, and its opposite is sadness. Depression, like other mood disorders — and anxiety, psychotic, personality, eating, and substance-use disorders — is a health condition; the opposite, aside from never developing anything to begin with, is symptom management. 'I mean, happiness is not something you learn about in medical school,” says James Murrough, director of the depression and anxiety center at Mount Sinai’s school of medicine in New York City. 'It’s not even in our vernacular. It’s nothing we consider.' Murrough says people will often refer to antidepressants as 'happy pills,' a premise that makes no sense to clinicians. The ideal outcome of antidepressants isn’t happiness, but a return to the patient’s baseline level of functioning, or at least a reasonable approximation. It’s a small irony that the demographic assumed to be furthest from happiness seems less clinically and personally preoccupied with reaching it, since the rest of the country’s scheming to optimize happiness continues apace. Among the general public, happiness is a whole industry now, churning with self-help gurus and college lectures and annual UN reports and a fetishized understanding of yoga. Of course, the kicker is that for all that expended energy, we’re only getting less and less happy. People who live with mental illness do have longer odds on experiencing happiness than their healthy counterparts, but this is because they have more limited access to care. Compared to doctors in all other specialties in the US, psychiatrists are the least likely to accept insurance, and the options for those without private coverage are generally the thinnest of all. Mental health in this country is a luxury, and luxury is only for the wealthy. It is inordinately difficult for even people of relative privilege, such as Ferguson and Arora, to access the basic levels of care that allow them to experience happiness, and often functionally impossible for lower-income Americans like Val Phillips, a 51-year-old farmer in Colorado. “I’m on Medicaid, and used a public health option for most of my treatment, so we had to rewrite goals every three to six months,” Phillips says. She began having panic attacks in her late 20s, after her mother died. At 43, she attempted suicide. After that, she began seeing a therapist regularly, and got a formal diagnosis of major depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder. She’s tried Elavil, overdosed on Klonopin, and currently takes Prozac and Wellbutrin daily, plus Vistaril as needed for panic attacks. But she says cognitive behavioral therapy and EMDR (eye movement desensitization and reprocessing, which involves recalling traumatic events while simultaneously tracking hand movements your therapist makes, sort of like you do at the eye doctor) have helped her the most. 'Initially it was just moving me away from suicidal ideation. Then it became specific positive changes in my relationships, work life, and general health management. I cannot recall happiness ever being a goal.' People who’ve been through some form of mental health treatment might be less susceptible to the mirage — that sustained happiness can and should be our default state — because they’ve been taught to approach emotions as being inherently impermanent for everyone, in a way that, say, chronic illness is not. There’s less of an expectation that you’re striving for happiness at all times. 'Part of therapy is helping people to be less phobic or afraid of their emotions' says Andrew Kuller, a senior behavioral health clinical team manager at the Harvard-affiliated McLean Hospital. 'To recognize that they’re going to pass, and it’s okay to feel whatever it is they’re feeling.' All the major emotions play an important role in our emotional lives, in giving us complexity and depth. Happiness is a healthy emotion. So is anger. Sadness is healthy and can facilitate real connection, and bears little resemblance to depression — which is not healthy, and often not so much like feeling sad as like feeling nothing. Yes, doctors want you to feel happy; they want you to feel. For people like Arora, that’s a better goal. Arora was diagnosed with OCD in 2012. He’s tried Prozac, Lexapro, Anafranil, talk therapy, and exposure and response prevention therapy — exposure to something that triggers you, followed by prevention from completing the compulsive ritual with which you cope. 'With OCD, so much of your time is spent ruminating on what may happen in the future, or what may have happened in the past. Life just sort of goes by you, and you’re not really living in the moment,' Arora says. 'To me, happiness doesn’t even have to be all the good things. I want to experience the bad things too, y’know?'" submitted by Qigong90 to sgiwhistleblowers [link] [comments] Major League Redditball Independent Demographics Survey: RESULTS Hey y'all! As most of you know, I've been running a demographics survey over the last week or so. Time to reveal the results! Of the 559 people currently on active MLR rosters, 139 filled out the survey, good for 24.86% participation. It's hard to draw any conclusions from only surveying about 1/4 of the league, but we'll do our best. What year did you join the MLR? Most people who put 2016 either didn't realize that you couldn't sign up as a player in 2016 or were fake submissions. I sorted through which ones were harmless mistakes and which were frauds, and came up with the following results. The leading answer was 2020, represented by 31.9% of submissions. 2019 came in second with 29.7%, followed by 2018 at 22.5% and 2017 at 15.9%. How many MLR seasons have you participated in? These answers followed those of the previous question, as the most common response was 1, which was the case for 33.1% of people who filled out the form. 27.3% said 2, 18.7% said 3, 14.4% said 4, and 6.5% has been around for all 5 seasons. How old are you? 38.8% of those who completed the survey fall into the 18-22 age bracket. The next highest percentage belongs to the 23-27 bracket, which makes up 21.6% of the pie. 13.7% said 15-17, 8.6% said 27-30, 8.6% said 30-35, 2.9% said 12-14, 2.9% said 35-40, and 1.4% said that they were Older than 50. What team do you play for? The most common team that appeared on the survey was the Kansas City Royals, with 12 submissions. My Los Angeles Angels came in 2nd with 11. Other notable teams were the Minnesota Twins and New York Mets who had 9 a piece, as well as the Baltimore Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks, who each had 7. 28 of the 30 teams had at least 2 team members fill out the survey. Both the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Indians failed to have a single player fill out the survey. Finally, 1 of the 139 submissions came from a player who was Retired. Do you live in the United States? 85.6% said that they do live in the United States, while 14.4% said that they live outside of the U.S.A. If you live in the United States, what state do you live in? The most common state that appeared on the survey was New York, which appeared 12 times. Illinois appeared 8 times, while Florida and Texas each had 7. Minnesota and California each had 6, and Connecticut followed right behind them with 6. Other states (abbreviated) that appeared included NJ, CO, NC, GA, OH, MI, MO, NM, DC, MA, WA, IN, SC, AL, MD, TN, PA, HI, WI, VA, KY, OR, NV, SD, NE, ND, and DE. 7 said that they Would rather not answer. If you do not live in the United States, what country do you live in? Of the 20 people who listed a non-American country of residence, 10 of them live in Canada. The United Kingdom has 3 representatives, while The Netherlands has 2. Other countries who were represented on the survey include Denmark, Singapore, Portugal, and Panama. One person also stated that they lived in Europe without stating a country. Which of the following best describes you? (Position in life) 33.1% of those who filled out the survey said that they would describe themselves as a Full-Time Worker. 27.3% said that they are an Undergraduate College Student. 15.8% responded with High School Student, while 6.5% said they are an Undergraduate College Student w/ a Full-Time Job. 4.3% are a Part-Time Worker, 4.3% are a Graduate College Student, 2.9% are Unemployed, and 0.7% are in the Military. 1.4% said they Would rather not answer. For those who chose an option that included a current Full-Time or Part-Time job, what line of work are you currently in? I received quite a few different answers, and really there wasn't any answer that appeared more than 2 or 3 times. Quite a few people work in various STEM fields, including computer engineering, software development, mechanical engineering, and other related tech/math-based fields. A few people work in nursing/EMS, a few are in television/broadcasting, and a few even work in the Sports field, doing team sales or management. 4 people listed their occupation as Military. In terms of oddities, 1 person said they were a Fisherman, and 1 said that they are a full-time Actor. Also one person is a full-time bartender, so that seems like a fun Friday night hangout. Which of the following best describes you? (Gender) In the least predictable statistic to date, 95.0% said that they were Male. 2.2% said they were Female. 1.4% listed themselves as Non-Binary, 0.7% said Unsure, and 0.7% said they Would rather not answer. Which of the following best describes you? (Race/Ethnicity) 80.6% listed themselves as White/Caucasian, which is 4/5 of those who filled out the survey. 5.8% listed themselves as Asian, 4.3% responded with Hispanic/Latino, and 3.6% said they were both White Caucasian and Asian. Only 1.4% responded with Black/African American, and only 0.7% responded with Asian/Pacific Islander. What is your relationship status? 62.6% said they are Single. In terms of other common responses, 19.4% said they are In a closed relationship, 12.9% said they are Married, and 2.2% said they are In an open/polyamorous relationship. How many hours per week do you spend playing, working, or contributing to Fake Baseball? Surprisingly, 85.8% said that they spend 10 hours or less each week on Fake Baseball, meaning that 14.2% spend more than a full work day on our great game. 62.7% spend 5 hours or less on our game per week, while 27.0% spend 2 hours or less per week. On the other hand, 8.8% said they spend 20 hours or more per week on our game, and 3.2% said they spend 30 hours or more per week. What month of the year were you born in? The most common answer was May with 12.2%, followed by June with 10.8% and February with 10.8%. Other common answers included July with 9.4%, January with 8.6%, and March with 7.9%. The least common response was October with 4.3%. What is your favorite brand of soda? While 18.7% responded with the ol' N/A, the actual leading votegetter was Coke with 15.8%. Dr. Pepper followed close behind with 13.7%, and Sprite was next with 8.6%. Other common answers included Pepsi with 5.0%, and Barq's, Mountain Dew, "Root Beer", and Water each with 2.9%. How many teams have you played for? The vast majority of survey submissions (61.3%) said that they have only played on 1 team in their MLR career. 23.4% said they have played on 2 teams, 7.3% said 3, 5.8% said 4, and 2.2% have been on 5 teams. Just 1 submitter said they have been on More than 5 teams. Have you ever received any awards from the MLR for your on-field accomplishments? Just 24.5% said that they have received an award for their on-field accomplishments at some point in their career. Nearly 3/4 of those surveyed have NOT received an award, and 0.7% said they Would rather not answer. Have you enjoyed your time in Major League Redditball? 82.7% said Yes, 15.8% said Kinda-sorta, and just 1.4% said No. I hope those 1.4% will someday find happiness and enjoyment around here. Or not. Whatever you want I suppose. What is your favorite convenience store brand? The Dallas-based 7-Eleven won with 24.5% (nearly a quarter) of the vote. 12.2% went with the Mid-Atlantic (and Florida)-based Wawa, followed by Circle K, which had 7.2%. Other notable responses included Sheetz (6.5%), QuikTrip (5.8%), Casey's (4.3%), Buc-ee's (3.6%), Speedway (3.6%), RaceTrac (3.6%), Kwik Trip (2.2%), Kum & Go (2.2%), Stewart's (1.4%), Cumberland Farms (1.4%), Kangaroo Express (1.4%), and Holiday (1.4%). Do you watch actual, in-real-life baseball? 95.7% said Yes, 3.6% said No, and 0.7% said Would rather not answer. That does it for the survey results! Thank you for reading through all of that. If you want to see specific charts, I'll be posting them on request in the Discord server. Lastly, if you want to join the IRL Meetup network, you still can! PM me your player name and region and I'll get you signed up! submitted by bryceryals42 to fakebaseball [link] [comments] Imagining a Cities:Skylines 2 So how’s your quarantine going? I’ve been playing a fair amount of C:S lately and thought I might speculate on what could be improved in Cities: Skylines 2. Besides, it’s not like I have anything better to do. What C:S gets right and wrong Besides great modability and post-release support, C:S combines an agent based economy with a sense of scale. It also has the kind of road design tools that SC4 veterans would have killed for. District based city planning for things like universities was one of the best innovations in the genre in years, and the introduction of industry supply chains, while clunky and tacked on, brought much needed depth to the game. C:S suffers most notably from a lack of revisit rate to previously constructed things. Build a power plant: forget about it. Build a port: forget about it. Build a downtown: forget about it. The player isn’t incentivized to revisit old parts of the city to upgrade and improve them. The district system for universities and industry was a fantastic innovation that demonstrated how to do this concept well, and consequently they are some of the most fun and engaging parts of the game. The biggest criticism of C:S, despite its powerful design tools, is that it feels like a city painter. The systems feel rich at first, but become very formulaic after a few hours. There are no hard trade-offs. Providing every inch of your city with maximum services will not bankrupt you, nor will an economy of nothing but the rich and well-educated collapse from a lack of unskilled labor. In the end, every city dies of boredom once the player exhausts the game’s relatively shallow well of novelty. The biggest areas for Improvement Balancing Competing Interests A real city has not only doctors and engineers, but clerks and factory workers. Consider a system that requires balancing the needs of different economic strata to make a thriving city. Here's one example: Poverty - Working Class - Middle Class - Professional - Elite Working class are the backbone of the economy, but they need affordable housing and good public transit. Without adequate care though, they slide into poverty causing spikes in crime and declining health. Middle class and professional workers bring in higher taxes and work in better quality jobs, but if property values go too high, your city can attract too many elites--which consume prime real estate, have excessive demands, and are needed in scant few industries. Providing good services for all citizens should be a real challenge, requiring thoughtful choices on how to provide them efficiently. Balancing for different economic strata also incentivizes building areas with different character. City’s need low-income tenements, middle class suburbs, and high-income downtowns. Region-sized Map C:S was meant to be played on an 81-tile map. It is a drastic improvement over the cramped origami-like vanilla experience. Small towns start to make sense to support farming and mining communities and the urban core acts as a natural hub for manufacturing and logistics. In short, the city begins to look and feel much more natural. Systems have gotten a lot more powerful since C:S was first released, and a redesign with better multi-core support and a larger map should be a priority. A larger region map recontextualizes the experience from city-builder to region builder. A four-times larger map could fit several urban cores, expansive farmlands, quaint mining towns, and national parks. Most importantly, it provides the appropriate scale to implement a more complex economy. Complex Systems The industries DLC, despite being simple and clunky, did a lot of things right in improving economic complexity. CIties aren’t just where people live; they make stuff. A key decision for the player as they design their city should be “what does my city do?” A region with plentiful iron could make for a thriving mining town, and a city with steel and auto industries. Beaches and national parks could make for a tourism industry. A well-educated population could attract a banking and finance industry, or maybe make for a national capital with legions of bureaucrats. The government systems could also use a bit more depth. Where is the city hall? How does a law enforcement system work without a courthouse or an education system without a board of education? These should have some role to play. City halls could define the various municipalities of a region (growing more grandiose as the city grows) while other government buildings could define the police/fire/school districts of a region. Visual Novelty One of my biggest gripes with C:S is the repeat frequency of tall buildings. While each asset is creatively designed, the effect is ruined by seeing two of the same assets in close proximity. This can be addressed one of a few ways besides simply making more. First, tall buildings should be very few in number, difficult to achieve, and a reward for good stewardship. SC4 doesn't suffer from this problem as much mainly because getting more than a handful of skyscrapers is quite an achievement. Additionally, procedural generation is a clear next-gen feature for city-builders. Some seriously impressive work has been done in this area. Architecture is also an extremely important element in the aesthetic of a city and should be a key tool available to the player. C:S has a modern style, which tends to feel sterile and lacks a sense of place. Paris without Parisian architecture doesn’t feel like Paris. Ideally, the player should be given the option to select architectural standards to apply to growables and city buildings within a given district. There’s endless fodder for DLC. 1930s New York City, DC Neoclassical, 1900s San Francisco, Parisian, Victorian, East Asian Traditional, Neo-futurism, etc. Better Zoning The square based zoning system is obsolete and does not take advantage of the free-form road design tool. Imagine instead a zoning system that, coupled with procedural building generation, could produce results like this. Also, the spectrum between rural farmhouses and high-rise apartments doesn’t fit well into the current low/high density binary, making the lack of medium density zoning kind of an odd choice that should be remedied. Improved Utilities Utilities should be an opportunity for creativity and problem solving. C:S utilities are just drudgery. Power and water distribution is a rote task that isn't interesting or challenging. Power systems are complex, with boilers, turbine halls, switchyards, transformers, and substations. Even a light implementation of this would improve upon the old two step formula of: 1) see low power notification 2) place a new power plant. Instead a “power plant district” could be defined where turbines, water intakes, and resource depots are placed. More turbines could be added or upgraded to alternate energy sources (coal > gas > nuclear) as the city expands. The plant itself becomes an opportunity for creative expression that grows as the city grows. Power distribution could be made more interesting by adding two elements: switchyards and substations. Switchyards distribute high voltage lines to substations and substations service local areas. The city-builder Workers and Resources has an interesting, if overcomplicated implementation of this concept. Designing a renewable energy grid to deal with cyclical power generation would also make for an interesting challenge. Water grids could follow a similar formula, with a water extraction/treatment “district” and a network of reservoirs (water towers, underground cisterns, etc.) and pumping stations to maintain pressure. The combination of both these systems would also make for a more interesting underground as sustaining large urban areas would require a fair amount of planning and space management. Customizable Transit Each transit station should have a “configure” option. This could include aesthetic options such as choosing architectural styles (modern, traditional, neoclassical, etc.) and more practical options such as fitting a station along a curved road, adding new platforms, or connections to other transit types. Ideally a single “transit station” option could be turned into everything from a rural railroad platform to a grand central station with bus, tram, and metro connections. Transport Fever 2 has a great implementation of this concept. Keeping with the philosophy of drawing the player’s attention back to developed areas of the city, logistic hubs (ports, railyards, and airports) should be highly configurable as well and be shaped over time by growing demand. For instance, a regional airport should be accessible early on, but gradually turn into an international hub. The same should apply to ports and railyards that expand in realistic ways due to the practical need for expanded capacity. Honorable Mentions Planning tools (place stuff down in “ghost” form and tweak it before actually paying for it) More powerful tools to build/tweak junctions and intersections (move-it, NEXT, CSUR, etc.) Vehicle choices for mass transit lines Bridge stacking / customization Paintable town squares/parks/markets (good luck fitting anything into a triangular city block currently) Seasons More interesting terrain (marsh, forest, jungle, mountains, etc.) submitted by naive_grandeur to CitiesSkylines [link] [comments] Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020 Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week and month ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 9th, 2020. Wall Street braces for more market volatility as wild swings become the ‘new normal’ amid coronavirus - (Source) The S&P 500 has never behaved like this, but Wall Street strategists say get used to it. Investors just witnessed the equity benchmark swinging up or down 2% for four days straight in the face of the coronavirus panic. In the index’s history dating back to 1927, this is the first time the S&P 500 had a week of alternating gains and losses of more than 2% from Monday through Thursday, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Daily swings like this over a two-week period were only seen at the peak of the financial crisis and in 2011 when U.S. sovereign debt got its first-ever downgrade, the firm said. “The message to all investors is that they should expect this volatility to continue. This should be considered the new normal going forward,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E-Trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped north of 1,000 points twice in the past week, only to erase the quadruple-digit gains in the subsequent sessions. The coronavirus outbreak kept investors on edge as global cases of the infections surpassed 100,000. It’s also spreading rapidly in the U.S. California has declared a state of emergency, while the number of cases in New York reached 33. “Uncertainty breeds greater market volatility,” Keith Lerner, SunTrust’s chief market strategist, said in a note. “Much is still unknown about how severe and widespread the coronavirus will become. From a market perspective, what we are seeing is uncomfortable but somewhat typical after shock periods.” More stimulus? So far, the actions from global central banks and governments in response to the outbreak haven’t triggered a sustainable rebound. The Federal Reserve’s first emergency rate cut since the financial crisis did little to calm investor anxiety. President Donald Trump on Friday signed a sweeping spending bill with an$8.3 billion packageto aid prevention efforts to produce a vaccine for the deadly disease, but stocks extended their heavy rout that day. “The market is recognizing the global authorities are responding to this,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. “If the market begins to worry they are not doing that sufficiently, then I think we are going to go down ugly. It is helping stocks hold up.” Essaye said any further stimulus from China and a decent-sized fiscal package from Germany would be positive to the market, but he doesn’t expect the moves to create a huge rebound. The fed funds future market is now pricing in the possibility of the U.S. central bank cutting by 75 basis points at its March 17-18 meeting. Where is the bottom? Many on Wall Street expect the market to fall further before recovering as the health crisis unfolds. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank’s chief equity strategist, sees a bottom for the S&P 500 in the second quarter after stocks falling as much as 20% from their recent peak. “The magnitude of the selloff in the S&P 500 so far has further to go; and in terms of duration, just two weeks in, it is much too early to declare this episode as being done,” Chadha said in a note. “We do view the impacts on macro and earnings growth as being relatively short-lived and the market eventually looking through them.” Deutsche Bank maintained its year-end target of 3,250 for the S&P 500, which would represent a 10% gain from here and a flat return for 2020. Strategists are also urging patience during this heightened volatility, cautioning against panic selling. “It is during times like these that investors need to maintain a longer-term perspective and stick to their investment process rather than making knee-jerk, binary decisions,” Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!) Major Indices for this past week: (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!) Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close: (CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!) Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!) Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!) Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) S&P Sectors for the Past Week: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART! Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!) (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!) A "Run of the Mill" Drawdown If you're like us, you've heard a lot of people reference the recent equity declines as a sign that the market is pricing in some sort of Armageddon in the US economy. While comments like that make for great soundbites, a little perspective is in order. Since the S&P 500's high on February 19th, the S&P 500 is down 12.8%. In the chart below, we show the S&P 500's annual maximum drawdown by year going back to 1928. In the entire history of the index, the median maximum drawdown from a YTD high is 13.05%. In other words, this year's decline is actually less than normal. Perhaps due to the fact that we have only seen one larger-than-average drawdown in the last eight years is why this one feels so bad. The fact that the current decline has only been inline with the historical norm raises a number of questions. For example, if the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario, going out and adding some equity exposure would be a no brainer. However, if we're only in the midst of a 'normal' drawdown in the equity market as the coronavirus outbreak threatens to put the economy into a recession, one could argue that things for the stock market could get worse before they get better, especially when we know that the market can be prone to over-reaction in both directions. The fact is that nobody knows right now how this entire outbreak will play out. If it really is a black swan, the market definitely has further to fall and now would present a great opportunity to sell more equities. However, if it proves to be temporary and after a quarter or two resolves itself and the economy gets back on the path it was on at the start of the year, then the magnitude of the current decline is probably appropriate. As they say, that's what makes a market! (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Long-Term Treasuries Go Haywire Take a good luck at today's moves in long-term US Treasury yields, because chances are you won't see moves of this magnitude again soon. Let's start with the yield on the 30-year US Treasury. Today's decline of 29 basis points in the yield will go down as the largest one-day decline in the yield on the 30-year since 2009. For some perspective, there have only been 25 other days since 1977 where the yield saw a larger one day decline. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) That doesn't even tell the whole story, though. As shown in the chart below, every other time the yield saw a sharper one-day decline, the actual yield of the 30-year was much higher, and in most other cases it was much, much higher. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) To show this another way, the percentage change in the yield on the 30-year has never been seen before, and it's not even close. Now, before the chart crime police come calling, we realize showing a percentage change of a percentage is not the most accurate representation, but we wanted to show this for illustrative purposes only. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Finally, with long-term interest rates plummetting we wanted to provide an update on the performance of the Austrian 100-year bond. That's now back at record highs, begging the question, why is the US not flooding the market with long-term debt? (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) It Doesn't Get Much Worse Than This For Crude Oil Crude oil prices are down close to 10% today in what is shaping up to be the worst day for crude oil since late 2014. That's more than five years. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Today's decline is pretty much a continuation of what has been a one-way trade for the commodity ever since the US drone strike on Iranian general Soleimani. The last time prices were this low was around Christmas 2018. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) With today's decline, crude oil is now off to its worst start to a year in a generation falling 32%. Since 1984, the only other year that was worse was 1986 when the year started out with a decline of 50% through March 6th. If you're looking for a bright spot, in 1986, prices rose 36% over the remainder of the year. The only other year where crude oil kicked off the year with a 30% decline was in 1991 after the first Iraq war. Over the remainder of that year, prices rose a more modest 5%. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Below 1% Despite strong market gains on Wednesday, March 4, 2020, the on-the-run 10-year Treasury yield ended the day below 1% for the first time ever and has posted additional declines in real time, sitting at 0.92% intraday as this blog is being written. “The decline in yields has been remarkable,” said LPL Research Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The 10-year Treasury yield has dipped below 1%, and today’s declines are likely to make the recent run lower the largest decline of the cycle.” As shown in LPL Research’s chart of the day, the current decline in the 10-year Treasury yield without a meaningful reversal (defined as at least 0.75%) is approaching the decline seen in 2011 and 2012 and would need about another two months to be the longest decline in length of time. At the same time, no prior decline has lasted forever and a pattern of declines and increases has been normal. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield lower? A shrinking but still sizable yield advantage over other developed market sovereign debt Added stock volatility if downside risks to economic growth from the coronavirus increase A larger potential premium over shorter-term yields if the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts interest rates What are some things that can push the 10-year Treasury yield higher? A second half economic rebound acting a catalyst for a Treasury sell-off As yields move lower, investors may increasingly seek more attractive sources of income Any dollar weakness could lead to some selling by international investors Longer maturity Treasuries are looking like an increasingly crowded trade, potentially adding energy to any sell-off On balance, our view remains that the prospect of an economic rebound over the second half points to the potential for interest rates moving higher. At the same time, we still see some advantage in the potential diversification benefits of intermediate maturity high-quality bonds, especially during periods of market stress. We continue to recommend that suitable investors consider keeping a bond portfolio’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates below that of the benchmark Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index by emphasizing short to intermediate maturity bonds, but do not believe it’s time to pile into very short maturities despite the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at historically low levels. U.S. Jobs Growth Marches On While stock markets continue to be extremely volatile as they come to terms with how the coronavirus may affect global growth, the U.S. job market has remained remarkably robust. Continued U.S. jobs data resilience in the face of headwinds from the coronavirus outbreak may be a key factor in prolonging the expansion, given how important the strength of the U.S. consumer has been late into this expansion. The U.S. Department of Labor today reported that U.S. nonfarm payroll data had a strong showing of 273,000 jobs added in February, topping the expectation of every Bloomberg-surveyed economist, with an additional upward revision of 85,000 additional jobs for December 2019 and January 2020. This has brought the current unemployment rate back to its 50-year low of 3.5%. So far, it appears it’s too soon for any effects of the coronavirus to have been felt in the jobs numbers. (Note: The survey takes place in the middle of each month.) On Wednesday, ADP released its private payroll data (excluding government jobs), which increased by 183,000 in February, also handily beating market expectations. Most of these jobs were added in the service sector, with 44,000 added in the leisure and hospitality sector, and another 31,000 in trade/transportation/utilities. Both of these areas could be at risk of potential cutbacks if consumers start to avoid eating out or other leisure pursuits due to coronavirus fears. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, payrolls remain strong, and any effects of the virus outbreaks most likely would be felt in coming months. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) “February’s jobs report shows the 113th straight month that the U.S. jobs market has grown,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “That’s an incredible run and highlights how the U.S. consumer has become key to extending the expansion, especially given setbacks to global growth from the coronavirus outbreak.” While there is bound to be some drag on future jobs data from the coronavirus-related slowdown, we would anticipate that the effects of this may be transitory. We believe economic fundamentals continue to suggest the possibility of a second-half-of-the–year economic rebound. Down January & Down February: S&P 500 Posts Full-Year Gain Just 43.75% of Time The combination of a down January and a down February has come about 17 times, including this year, going back to 1950. Rest of the year and full-year performance has taken a rather sizable hit following the previous 16 occurrences. March through December S&P 500 average performance drops to 2.32% compared to 7.69% in all years. Full-year performance is even worse with S&P 500 average turning to a loss of 4.91% compared to an average gain of 9.14% in all years. All hope for 2020 is not lost as seven of the 16 past down January and down February years did go on to log gains over the last 10 months and full year while six enjoyed double-digit gains from March to December. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Take Caution After Emergency Rate Cut Today’s big rally was an encouraging sign that the markets are becoming more comfortable with the public health, monetary and political handling of the situation. But the history of these “emergency” or “surprise” rate cuts by the Fed between meetings suggest some caution remains in order. The table here shows that these surprise cuts between meetings have really only “worked” once in the past 20+ years. In 1998 when the Fed and the plunge protection team acted swiftly and in a coordinated manner to stave off the fallout from the financial crisis caused by the collapse of the Russian ruble and the highly leveraged Long Term Capital Management hedge fund markets responded well. This was not the case during the extended bear markets of 2001-2002 and 2007-2009. Bottom line: if this is a short-term impact like the 1998 financial crisis the market should recover sooner rather than later. But if the economic impact of coronavirus virus is prolonged, the market is more likely to languish. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead- $ADBE $DKS $AVGO $THO $ULTA $WORK $DG $SFIX $SOGO $DOCU $INO $CLDR $INSG $SOHU $BTAI $ORCL $HEAR $NVAX $ADDYY $GPS $AKBA $PDD $CYOU $FNV $MTNB $NERV $MTN $BEST $PRTY $NINE $AZUL $UNFI $PRPL $VSLR $KLZE $ZUO $DVAX $EXPR $VRA $AXSM $CDMO $CASY (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!) (CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!) Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers: Monday 3.9.20 Before Market Open: (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Monday 3.9.20 After Market Close: (CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Tuesday 3.10.20 Before Market Open: (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Tuesday 3.10.20 After Market Close: (CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Wednesday 3.11.20 Before Market Open: (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Wednesday 3.11.20 After Market Close: (CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Thursday 3.12.20 Before Market Open: (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Thursday 3.12.20 After Market Close: (CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Friday 3.13.20 Before Market Open: (CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!) Friday 3.13.20 After Market Close: ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]()) NONE. Adobe Inc. $336.77 Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.23 per share on revenue of $3.04 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $2.23 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 29.65% with revenue increasing by 16.88%. Short interest has decreased by 38.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.9% above its 200 day moving average of $303.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, February 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,109 contracts of the $400.00 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.1% move in recent quarters. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. $34.98 DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, March 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.23 per share on revenue of $2.56 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 14.95% with revenue increasing by 2.73%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.0% below its 200 day moving average of $39.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 26, 2020 there was some notable buying of 848 contracts of the $39.00 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.3% move in recent quarters. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Broadcom Limited $269.45 Broadcom Limited (AVGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.34 per share on revenue of $5.93 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.65% with revenue increasing by 2.44%. Short interest has decreased by 15.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 15.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.7% below its 200 day moving average of $291.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,197 contracts of the $260.00 put expiring on Friday, April 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Thor Industries, Inc. $70.04 Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $1.79 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.92% with revenue increasing by 38.70%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.0% above its 200 day moving average of $62.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) ULTA Beauty $256.58 ULTA Beauty (ULTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $2.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.77% with revenue increasing by 7.78%. Short interest has increased by 8.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% below its 200 day moving average of $283.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 15.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.7% move in recent quarters. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Slack Technologies, Inc. $26.42 Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $173.06 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.04) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.07 to $0.06 per share on revenue of $172.00 million to $174.00 million. Short interest has increased by 1.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.0% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.3% move on earnings in recent quarters. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Dollar General Corporation $158.38 Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.02 per share on revenue of $7.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.78% with revenue increasing by 7.52%. Short interest has increased by 16.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.7% above its 200 day moving average of $149.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, February 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,013 contracts of the $182.50 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Stitch Fix, Inc. $22.78 Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $452.96 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $447.00 million to $455.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 50.00% with revenue increasing by 22.33%. Short interest has decreased by 4.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% below its 200 day moving average of $24.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,026 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 28.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.2% move in recent quarters. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) Sogou Inc. $3.85 Sogou Inc. (SOGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 AM ET on Monday, March 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share on revenue of $303.08 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $290.00 million to $310.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 1.78%. Short interest has increased by 6.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 27.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.7% below its 200 day moving average of $4.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.8% move on earnings in recent quarters. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) DocuSign $84.02 DocuSign (DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 12, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.05 per share on revenue of $267.44 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $263.00 million to $267.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 600.00% with revenue increasing by 33.90%. Short interest has decreased by 37.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.9% above its 200 day moving average of $63.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, March 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,698 contracts of the $87.50 call expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters. (CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!) DISCUSS! What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week? I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets. submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Полезно. ПО Fawkes - клоакинг фотографий для защиты от систем распознавания лиц. Защитите ваши фото ! Скачать ПО Fawkes. Как использовать ПО Fawkes установка. Image "Cloaking" for Personal Privacy. Fawkes Usage - Setup Instructions Как защититься от системы распознавания лиц при помощи ПО Fawkes Как защититься от массовой слежки и идентификации людей по лицу Полезно. ПО Fawkes - клоакинг фотографий для защиты от систем распознавания лиц. Защитите ваши фото ! Скачать ПО Fawkes. Как использовать ПО Fawkes , установка. Image "Cloaking" for Personal Privacy. Fawkes Usage - Setup Instructions Алгоритм Fawkes эффективно подрывает базу обучения «вражеской» нейросети. Перед публикацией каждой фотографии в ней делаются незаметные попиксельные изменения, после чего она становится не то что непригодной для использования при обучении, а буквально портит систему распознавания лиц. Обработайте ваши фотографии с помощью Fawkes -> Загружайте ваши фото в социальные сети сайт: http://sandlab.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/ Fawkes - Image "Cloaking" for Personal Privacy For more information about the project, please refer to our project webpage http://sandlab.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/ Как использовать ПО Fawkes и установка - Fawkes Usage - Setup Instructions https://github.com/Shawn-Shan/fawkes/blob/mastefawkes/README.md https://github.com/Shawn-Shan/fawkes/tree/maste Инструкции по установке Fawkes Setup Instructions https://github.com/Shawn-Shan/fawkes/blob/mastefawkes/README.md Publication & Presentation - PDF Fawkes: Protecting Personal Privacy against Unauthorized Deep Learning Models. Shawn Shan, Emily Wenger, Jiayun Zhang, Huiying Li, Haitao Zheng, and Ben Y. Zhao. In Proceedings of USENIX Security Symposium 2020. ( Download PDF here ) https://people.cs.uchicago.edu/%7Eravenben/publications/abstracts/fawkes-usenix20.html https://people.cs.uchicago.edu/%7Eravenben/publications/pdf/fawkes-usenix20.pdf Frequently Asked Questions http://sandlab.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/ --------------------------------- Скачать ПО Fawkes: Downloads and Source Code - Version 0.3 (July 2020) http://sandlab.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/ Download the Fawkes Software: Fawkes.dmg for Mac (v0.3) DMG file with installer app Compatibility: MacOS 10.13, 10.14, 10.15 https://mirror.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/files/0.3/Fawkes-0.3.dmg Fawkes.exe for Windows (v0.3) EXE file Compatibility: Windows 10 https://mirror.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/files/0.3/Fawkes-0.3.exe Бинарник для Mac Fawkes Executable Binary https://mirror.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/files/0.3/fawkes_binary_mac-v0.3.zip Бинарник для Windows Fawkes Executable Binary https://mirror.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/files/0.3/fawkes_binary_windows-v0.3.zip Бинарник для Linux Fawkes Executable Binary https://mirror.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/files/0.3/fawkes_binary_linux-v0.3.zip Инструкции по установке Setup Instructions https://github.com/Shawn-Shan/fawkes/blob/mastefawkes/README.md Исходный код Fawkes на GitHub Fawkes Source Code on Github, for development https://github.com/Shawn-Shan/fawkes --------------------------------------------------------------------- Клоакинг фотографий для защиты от систем распознавания лиц https://habr.com/ru/company/itsumma/news/t/512122/ 23 июля 2020 Информационная безопасность, Open source, Обработка изображений, Киберпанк Современные системы распознавания лиц представляют угрозу личной приватности. Уже сейчас такие системы ежедневно сканируют миллионы лиц в Китае, Великобритании и России без их согласия. Поставлена задача, чтобы в следующем году 100% пассажиров в топ-20 аэропортов США незаметно подвергали этой процедуре. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-protecting-nation-foreign-terrorist-entry-united-states-2/ Исследователи из Чикагского университета придумали любопытный алгоритм клоакинга, который позволяет защититься от распознавания лиц. http://sandlab.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/ Дело в том, что системы распознавания лиц берут фотографии для обучения своей системы из ваших открытых данных — в основном, из профилей в социальных сетях и других открытых источников. Например, крупнейшая система распознавания лиц Clearview.ai для обучения использовала более трёх миллиардов фотографий из интернета и социальных сетей. Clearview.ai демонстрирует, насколько легко построить такую систему распознавания на снимках из Facebook и «Вконтакте». https://clearview.ai/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/18/technology/clearview-privacy-facial-recognition.html Так вот, новый алгоритм Fawkes эффективно подрывает базу обучения «вражеской» нейросети. Перед публикацией каждой фотографии в ней делаются незаметные попиксельные изменения, после чего она становится не то что непригодной для использования при обучении, а буквально портит систему распознавания лиц. Схема работы Fawkes https://hsto.org/webt/vu/r2/ao/vur2aoiyij6hcfibjxpfo8-q9b8.jpeg Программа Fawkes работает локально на вашем компьютере и выполняет клоакинг фотографий. После обработки вы можете использовать фотографии как угодно — публиковать в социальных сетях, передавать друзьям или распечатывать на бумаге. В любом случае, для распознавания лиц они уже бесполезны, как показала проверка в ходе научного исследования чикагской группы. Интуитивно понятное пояснение в 2D-пространстве из четырёх признаков A, B, U, T, почему модель, обученная на искажённых фотографиях, не распознаёт лица на оригиналах. Слева — границы принятия решений при обучении на оригиналах, справа — границы принятия решений при обучении после клоакинга https://hsto.org/webt/gc/bq/f1/gcbqf1bgswyycpjzszuirvgjv6w.png Тестирование показало, что эффект клоакинга трудно распознать при обучении нейросети и он не вызывает ошибок при обучении. Другими словами, операторы системы распознавания лиц не заподозрят ничего неладного. Но просто если кто-то попытается выполнить распознавание на вашем оригинальном изображении (например, с камер наблюдения), поиск по базе не найдёт совпадений. Fawkes протестирован и показал эффективность 100% против самых известных моделей распознавания Microsoft Azure Face API, Amazon Rekognition и Face++. Алгоритмы сжатия изображений тоже не портят защиту клоакинга. Исследователи проверяли материал на прогрессивном JPEG, который используется в Facebook и Twitter для пережатия картинок, на уровнях качества от 5 до 95. В общем, сжатие немного ослабляет защиту клоакинга, но при этом ещё более значительно снижается качество распознавания лиц. То есть нашей задачи помех в классификации это не мешает. Как ни странно, заблюривание фотографий и применение разных графических фильтров тоже не снимает защиту, поскольку по своей сути клоакинг происходит не на уровне пикселей, а на уровне пространства признаков, то есть пиксельные измененимя на самом деле имеют глубокую природу и не стираются в растровом редакторе. Техническая статья с описанием алгоритма (pdf) будет представлена на ближайшем симпозиуме USENIX по безопасности 12? 14 августа 2020 года. http://people.cs.uchicago.edu/~ravenben/publications/pdf/fawkes-usenix20.pdf Кстати, название программы позаимствовано от маски Гая Фокса из фильма «V — значит вендетта». Скачать программу Fawkes: http://sandlab.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/ Open Source Обработка изображений Информационная безопасность Киберпанк Fawkes распознавание лиц клоакинг V — значит вендетта Информационная безопасность Обработка изображений Киберпанк -------------------------------------------------------- How to Setup Fawkes Binary https://github.com/Shawn-Shan/fawkes/blob/mastefawkes/README.md This application is built for individuals to cloak their images before uploading to the Internet. For more information about the project, please refer to our project webpage. If you are a developer or researcher planning to customize and modify on our existing code. Please refer to fawkes. How to Setup MAC: Download the binary following this link and unzip the download file. Create a directory and move all the images you wish to protect into that directory. Note the path to that directory (e.g. ~/Desktop/images). Open terminal and change directory to fawkes (the unzipped folder). (If your MacOS is Catalina) Run sudo spctl --master-disable to enable running apps from unidentified developer. We are working on a solution to bypass this step. Run ./protection-v0.3 -d IMAGE_DIR_PATH to generate cloak for images in IMAGE_DIR_PATH. When the cloaked image is generated, it will output a _min_cloaked.png image in IMAGE_DIR_PATH. The generation takes ~40 seconds per image depending on the hardware. PC: Download the binary following this link and unzip the download file. Create a directory and move all the images you wish to protect into that directory. Note the path to that directory (e.g. ~/Desktop/images). Open terminal(powershell or cmd) and change directory to protection (the unzipped folder). Run protection-v0.3.exe -d IMAGE_DIR_PATH to generate cloak for images in IMAGE_DIR_PATH. When the cloaked image is generated, it will output a _min_cloaked.png image in IMAGE_DIR_PATH. The generation takes ~40 seconds per image depending on the hardware. Linux: Download the binary following this link and unzip the download file. Create a directory and move all the images you wish to protect into that directory. Note the path to that directory (e.g. ~/Desktop/images). Open terminal and change directory to protection (the unzipped folder). Run ./protection-v0.3 -d IMAGE_DIR_PATH to generate cloak for images in IMAGE_DIR_PATH. When the cloaked image is generated, it will output a _min_cloaked.png image in IMAGE_DIR_PATH. The generation takes ~40 seconds per image depending on the hardware. More details on the optional parameters check out the github repo https://github.com/Shawn-Shan/fawkes/tree/maste ------------------------ Usage Fawkes https://github.com/Shawn-Shan/fawkes/tree/maste Fawkes is a privacy protection system developed by researchers at SANDLab, University of Chicago. For more information about the project, please refer to our project webpage. Contact us at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]). We published an academic paper to summarize our work "Fawkes: Protecting Personal Privacy against Unauthorized Deep Learning Models" at USENIX Security 2020. NEW! If you would like to use Fawkes to protect your identity, please check out our software and binary implementation on the website. Copyright This code is intended only for personal privacy protection or academic research. We are currently exploring the filing of a provisional patent on the Fawkes algorithm. Usage $ fawkes Options: -m, --mode : the tradeoff between privacy and perturbation size. Select from min, low, mid, high. The higher the mode is, the more perturbation will add to the image and provide stronger protection. -d, --directory : the directory with images to run protection. -g, --gpu : the GPU id when using GPU for optimization. --batch-size : number of images to run optimization together. Change to >1 only if you have extremely powerful compute power. --format : format of the output image (png or jpg). when --mode is custom: --th : perturbation threshold --max-step : number of optimization steps to run --lr : learning rate for the optimization --feature-extractor : name of the feature extractor to use --separate_target : whether select separate targets for each faces in the diectory. Example fawkes -d ./imgs --mode min Tips The perturbation generation takes ~60 seconds per image on a CPU machine, and it would be much faster on a GPU machine. Use batch-size=1 on CPU and batch-size>1 on GPUs. Turn on separate target if the images in the directory belong to different people, otherwise, turn it off. How do I know my images are secure? We are actively working on this. Python scripts that can test the protection effectiveness will be ready shortly. Quick Installation Install from PyPI: pip install fawkes If you don't have root privilege, please try to install on user namespace: pip install --user fawkes. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Image "Cloaking" for Personal Privacy http://sandlab.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/ Original Cloaked http://sandlab.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/images/shawn.jpg http://sandlab.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/images/shawncloaked.jpg Original Cloaked http://sandlab.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/images/emily.jpg http://sandlab.cs.uchicago.edu/fawkes/images/emilycloaked.jpg 2020 is a watershed year for machine learning. It has seen the true arrival of commodized machine learning, where deep learning models and algorithms are readily available to Internet users. GPUs are cheaper and more readily available than ever, and new training methods like transfer learning have made it possible to train powerful deep learning models using smaller sets of data. But accessible machine learning also has its downsides. A recent New York Times article by Kashmir Hill profiled clearview.ai, an unregulated facial recognition service that has downloaded over 3 billion photos of people from the Internet and social media and used them to build facial recognition models for millions of citizens without their knowledge or permission. Clearview.ai demonstrates just how easy it is to build invasive tools for monitoring and tracking using deep learning. So how do we protect ourselves against unauthorized third parties building facial recognition models that recognize us wherever we may go? Regulations can and will help restrict the use of machine learning by public companies but will have negligible impact on private organizations, individuals, or even other nation states with similar goals. The SAND Lab at University of Chicago has developed Fawkes1, an algorithm and software tool (running locally on your computer) that gives individuals the ability to limit how their own images can be used to track them. At a high level, Fawkes takes your personal images and makes tiny, pixel-level changes that are invisible to the human eye, in a process we call image cloaking. You can then use these "cloaked" photos as you normally would, sharing them on social media, sending them to friends, printing them or displaying them on digital devices, the same way you would any other photo. The difference, however, is that if and when someone tries to use these photos to build a facial recognition model, "cloaked" images will teach the model an highly distorted version of what makes you look like you. The cloak effect is not easily detectable by humans or machines and will not cause errors in model training. However, when someone tries to identify you by presenting an unaltered, "uncloaked" image of you (e.g. a photo taken in public) to the model, the model will fail to recognize you. Fawkes has been tested extensively and proven effective in a variety of environments and is 100% effective against state-of-the-art facial recognition models (Microsoft Azure Face API, Amazon Rekognition, and Face++). We are in the process of adding more material here to explain how and why Fawkes works. For now, please see the link below to our technical paper, which will be presented at the upcoming USENIX Security Symposium, to be held on August 12 to 14. The Fawkes project is led by two PhD students at SAND Lab, Emily Wenger and Shawn Shan, with important contributions from Jiayun Zhang (SAND Lab visitor and current PhD student at UC San Diego) and Huiying Li, also a SAND Lab PhD student. The faculty advisors are SAND Lab co-directors and Neubauer Professors Ben Zhao and Heather Zheng. 1The Guy Fawkes mask, a la V for Vendetta In addition to the photos of the team cloaked above, here are a couple more examples of cloaked images and their originals. Can you tell which is the original? (Cloaked image of the Queen courtesy of TheVerge). Publication & Presentation Fawkes: Protecting Personal Privacy against Unauthorized Deep Learning Models. Shawn Shan, Emily Wenger, Jiayun Zhang, Huiying Li, Haitao Zheng, and Ben Y. Zhao. In Proceedings of USENIX Security Symposium 2020. ( Download PDF here ) https://people.cs.uchicago.edu/%7Eravenben/publications/abstracts/fawkes-usenix20.html https://people.cs.uchicago.edu/%7Eravenben/publications/pdf/fawkes-usenix20.pdf ------------------------- Вступайте в наши сообщества - Join Us: https://www.reddit.com/1_News/ и https://www.reddit.com/True_Russia/ Делитесь со всеми, распространяйте информацию! * Революция в России. Фашизм в России. 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0.957233	binary options on stocks. why binary tree , binary is base what , binary or forex , binary vs ternary ,are binary options legal , how binary options work , why trade binary ,binary options no deposit bonus submitted by Binaryopts to u/Binaryopts [link] [comments] Are binary options exchanges legal in the US? I can't tell if hosting a binary exchange is legal in the US. It looks like the government has allowed two to register, but they appear to be broker-dealers. I'm referring specifically hosting an exchange - no brokerage. Binary options fall under OTC derivatives which used to be completely unregulated pre-Dodd Frank. Now it looks trading is legal but I can't find a straight answer about exchanges. The binary options community of course makes it seem like nothing has changed and the government seems to have made it particularly find a straight answer buried in legalese. It looks like, depending on the commodity/security, CFTC regulation may be required. However, what about underlying price drivers that aren't on the list. I.e., weather futures? I'm located in the United States. This chart might help provide clarity: https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/idc/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/exemptcommoditiesvenues_091207.pdf And please don't tell me how sketchy they are. I know these exchanges are a bad idea, I just want to find out if "exotics" are regulated in the US. submitted by econobro to legaladvice [link] [comments] OBLIGATORY FILLER MATERIAL – ESCAPE FROM STALAG SULTANATE, Part 1 That reminds me of a story. “HELLFIRE AND DALMATIANS!” I shouted to no one in particular. “What’s the problem, dear?” Esme asks in that way she has of telling me to calm down without having to say it directly. “This bloody fucking country. A day late and several dollars short.” I fume. “Can’t get a new liquor license because of the bloody COVID. Can’t go to a hotel bar and have a snort because of the bloody COVID. Can’t even slip across the border to Dubai and soak up some room service and buckets of complimentary cocktails because of the bloody COVID.” Yes, the Sultanate of Oman, in its infinitesimal wisdom, has traditionally followed other GCC countries by at least three months in making any sort of proclamations regarding this latest bugaboo: the hideous, deadly, itchy, loathsome, and possibly serially bent, noxious, pandemical COVID-19; aka, this pandemic’s entry for flu. Their response is one of immense knee-jerk without first having thought of the consequences. “Bloody lockdown, 2100 to 0700. What is this, the whole fucking country’s been bad and now being sent to bed without any supper?” I wondered aloud. “Idiot benchodes.” Even Esme couldn’t come up with a rejoinder to that. “Plus they close all the bars. And all the hotels. And the fucking bottle shops. It’s not enough that these fucking Muppets jack the ‘sin tax’ on booze and cigars by 100%, now they’re not even legally available.” I swore. Of course, once you’ve spent even a small portion of the time that I have in the Middle East, you have your connections. Your system. Your access to the seedy underbelly of any society; the venerable Black Market. Jesus Q. Christ on toast with baked beans, fried tomatoes, black pudding, and mushrooms, I could get most anything in the Middle East, be it legal, shady, or just plain illegal. However, before you all recoil in horror that the venerable Dr. Rocknocker dabbles in the prohibited, just remember: the ends always dojustify the means. “I'm telling you, Esme dear; this Gulf story is getting too complicated. The weasels have started closing in.” I complain to Es as she hands me a fresh drink. “Do you think…?” Esme asks expectantly. Esme is more than ready to go. I’ve used this place as a base of operations for years whilst I wear out the Omani legal system suing those asswipes that think just because they’re local and I’m a kafir, they’re immune to the law. I’ve spent a long, profitable and time-consuming period of the last few years proving them wrong. But, time was marching onwards. I agreed with Esme, we’ve milked this particular cash cow dry. It was time to hitch up our bootstraps, call it a day, and get the hell out of Dodge. But not before I took care of a few loose ends. Now, the country had recently lost its venerable Sultan, who croaked back in January of this year. Sultan Qaboos was a good egg, friend to expat and local alike. Did a shitload of good for this benighted Middle East sandpit. Dragged it kicking and screaming out of the 12th century into, well, not exactly the 21st, but a whole hell of a lot closer. He realized that he needed revolutionary, not evolutionary change in the country. By revolutionary, he needed American, British, Canadian, and the like Western Expats here to do the heavy thinking and lifting and Eastern Expats like Indians, Bangladeshis and Nepalese to do all the scut work. Yeah, I know. That sounds racist as fuck, but sometimes that’s the way the ball bounced. Simple evolution of society where Omanis graduated the local equivalent of grade school, through high school, into University, and finally into Entry level jobs in the oil and gas industry wasn’t going to cut it. Took too long and the country needed a serious cash flow now. So, that’s what he did. And it worked a treat. Then he died. And his chosen took over. Except his chosen was pretty much antithetical to everything the previous and very revered and successful, Sultan wanted. Soon, there are 100% ‘sin taxes’ aimed directly at the western expats. Tourists included. Then there’s quotas and ‘Letters of No Objection’, which are impossible to get so that the Eastern Expats can’t switch jobs. Then, there are Sultanic proclamations of new taxes on tourists, new taxes on fast food, new taxes on this, that and the other. Then there’s, in his own words, “Oman is for Omanis”, blatantly ridiculous and xenophobic Omanization, and the general swipe at all expats. “GET OUT.” This was the clear message of the new sultan. He wanted to take over and possibly nationalize all the oil workings in the country. Ask Venezuela, Iran, and Myanmar how well that worked out for them. Then he wants all expats out on their asses. He wants Omanis to take over all the jobs, even though they’re nowhere near educated nor experienced enough for the positions. Then take up the massive GDP slack in lower oil production and oil prices with tourism. Given everything else, that last line should be enough to get him off the throne. He’s fucking nuts if he thinks people are going to want to cruise or overland anywhere near a place where foreigners are seen only as a cash supply, are despised, and would welcome these all new 100% tax levies. Be that as it may, Esme and I decided that we have had enough of 135O F summer temperatures, virtual house arrest under the guise of a COVID lockdown, and idiots who were the only ones stupid or twisted enough not to vamoose when the great, big bloody letters were clearly written on the wall. But, there was the physical act of getting out of the country. Now, I had plenty of strings which I could pull, but I decided I’d start low and save those until we really needed them. So low, in fact, we went to the US Embassy in Muscat. “How low can you go?” reverberated through my head. What a haven of sad-sacks, flubadubs, and third rate hobbyists. Was either Esme or I surprised that when we finally secured an invitation to the embassy, that required a bit of string-pulling with the ex-Ambassador to Oman, now in Kabul; that besides the peach-fuzz faced Marine guarding the place, we were the only Americans in the joint? “This is American soil!” I laughed, as I pulled out a huge Cuban cigar and was immediately told to extinguish it. “We’re as American as apple pie and napalm! We file our fucking 1040s every April; I pay my fucking long-distance taxes and demand US assistance to vacate this gloomy place of sandy, sweaty, sultry Sturm und Drang!” “Shut up, Rock”, Esme chided me, “They don’t understand English. Much less, the florid English the way you trowel it on.” “Fuckbuckets”, I remonstrated. “Here I had memorized the whole Patrick Henry speech he made to the Second Virginia Convention on March 23, 1775, at St. John's Church in Richmond, Virginia. Troglodytes. No admiration for the classics.” “Rock, dear?” Esme noted, “It’s almost 1100 hours. Best to get to our appointment.” True, our appointment was slated for 1100 hours. But around here, anything starting within three hours of the stated time was considered close enough. We dragged ourselves, none too cheerfully, to the waiting room. Once we pried open the door, there was the usual “If you hear a high pitched wail, hit the deck” signs, and other things one could do while kissing one’s ass goodbye if there was a terrorist attack, we had a whole new slew of bullshit with which to deal. “Social distancing. 6 feet. Or if you’re from Baja Canada, 1 cow’s length.” “Must wear a mask. Bandanna, bandoliers, and large-caliber weapons or sombrero optional.” “No sitting. Faux Naugahyde seats are too difficult to sterilize. You must stand at attention, do not talk amongst yourselves, and remain patient until your number is called.” “Well, fuck!”, I snorted quietly, as I raised my first secret flask in rapt attention to our old glory of red, white, and blue. “Good thing they didn’t say nothin’ about getting a load on. If I’m going to be treated like cattle, I’m going to at least have something to chew on in the process.” “Oh, lord”, Esme grumbled, “You didn’t bring that Japanese Rye Whiskey with you, did you?” “ルハイム”, I said, which is Japanese for “L’chaim”! “Oh, hell”, Esme grinned as she borrowed my flask, “This is going to be a long day.” I began to protest but remembered that I was wearing my Agency-issued field vest. I must have had at least 5 or 6 more flasks lurking around in those pockets somewhere. Funny aside: they don’t bother with my going through an X-ray machine nor do they confiscate my phone, radio, knives, nor other field equipment when I go to the US Embassy. It took them almost two solid hours last time, and by the time they got to my Brunton Compass, emergency flasks, a few spare blasting cap boosters, and saw the label sewn into the back of my vest, they decided they’d just send Rack and Ruin some evil Emails and let me pass unmolested. “I’ll drink to that”, I say as I raise a flask as the locals raise an eyebrow. “Courtesy of Atheists International. We’re here for your children…” The collective gasps and growls indicate they weren’t happy with me or my betrothed. “Don’t care, Buckwheat”, I smiled, “Never did, never will. We’re out of here for good. You can curse my name all you want then. But, then again, why you standing in the American Embassy trying to get a visa to visit the land of the great evil empire?” All the locals and most of the Eastern Expats crowded into a corner as far away from us as they physically could. “BOO!” I snickered over a shot of Wild Turkey 101 Rye. “Now serving number 58! Number 58!” came the call over the tannoy. “Look at that”, I remarked to Es as I stashed both our flasks, “It’s only 12:35. Record time.” We both shimmy into the glass-fronted and presumably bullet- but not C-4 resistant- glass. We pick up the telephones there and acknowledge that we are who we said we were. The East Indian fella, one Harsh Talavalakar, behind the multiple layers of glass asked us why we were here. “Didn’t you read the appointment card?” I asked, “We’re here to have Uncle Sam get us passage out of this sordid and sultry place.” “You are American citizens?” he asked, vacantly. “That’s what it says on appointment cards and these here blue passports,” I replied. “Well, how was I to know?” he scoffed, returning to his half-consumed powdered sugar doughnut. “Maybe read the appointment card and see that we are US Citizens here on the behest of Ambassador Bethesda Orun?” I replied. “Like I have time to read everything that comes across my desk”, he scoffed again. I tapped on the glass to make certain I had his full attention. “Look here, Herr Harsh. I’m not sure how you got this job at the American Consulate but want to be very clear with you. My wife and I are residents of this place for the last 20 years. We’re American citizens of very high standing and have more high powered connections than an Arduino in a nuclear power station. We have direct connections with Langley, Virginia and if you want to retain your cushy job, you’ll put down that fucking doughnut and pay very rapt attention to the two Americans standing here who are getting more and more irritated with some Indian benchode that doesn’t think he has to really do his job. You savvy? You diggin’ me, Beaumont” I guess the benchode got his attention. The two scowls he received from Esme and myself sort of cemented the idea that we’re not too pleased and not with to be trifled. “Yes, sir?” he said, “And ma’am”, as Harsh quickly corrected himself as the doughnut disappeared. “We want out. Gone. Vamoose. Outta here. AMF. You got me?” he nods behind the shatterprone glass. “Now I know the borders are sealed and the airport’s closed, but fuck that. We want out and we want gone for good. I can’t make that much simpler or clearer. Get after it, son.” I said, as seriously as I could. “Well, sir”, he began, “ The airport’s closed…” “Are you deaf or born stupid and been losing ground ever since?” I asked, rhetorically. “I know that. We all know that. My HAT knows that. So, what devious little plan does the US Embassy have in store in just such an unsavory situation?” “Well”, he chokes a bit, “There’s this unofficial lottery where America citizens are issued random numbers and if their number comes up, there are seats made available on special clandestine charter flights.” Considering that Es and I are some of the last American citizens left in the country, I thought our chances might be pretty good. “OK”, I said, “Let us have two of your finest numbers.” “Yes, sir”, he said, “That will be US$500 total.” “Excuse me?” I said. “Oh, yes”, he smirked, “US$250 per number. Chances are you’ll never be called, but with these numbers, at least you stand a chance.” “OK”, I said, “Forget the numbers. I want your name and operating number. I’ve got a report to file that’s due in Virginia before breakfast.” “Oh, sir”, he smirked more, “I cannot release that information. Thanking you. Now be having a good day.” And he slammed the supposedly bulletproof shield between himself and Es and me. “Bulletproof? Maybe. Nitro proof? No fucking way.” I groused as I fished out a couple of blasting cap superfast boosters. “Calm down, dear”, Esme smiled to me as we walked out, “When he wasn’t looking, I took his picture, got his operating number, and full name. In fact, I think I got some information on where he lives…” In the cab on the way back to our villa, I reviewed and confirmed Es’s subterfuge. Flasks number 6 and 8 needed serious replenishment by the time we arrived home. “That’s fucking right, Ruin.” I yelled over the phone, “We need extraction. And now. Along with our personal effects and a few hundredweight of ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ boxes of stuff we need to be transported.” “Well, Rock”, Agent Ruin replied, “That’s a tall order. Usually, extraction is for one person and the stuff they’re wearing. Tell you what. Let Rack and I work on it for a week or so. We’ll arrange transport of your personal effects, then we’ll see about getting you and Esme to Dubai. At least there, you can order a plane. Hell, knowing you, you’ll get Tony Stark to fly in and provide door to door service. Sit tight. We’ll be back in touch.” “Good!” I say as I slam the phone down. With these newfangled cellphone telephone instruments, they lack the same sort of satisfying “KER FUCKING CLANG” the old landlines used to have. “Es!”, I yelled, “Start packing. We’re due out of here within a week.” That meant we needed to do some packing triage: • Things going home with us. • Things being shipped. • Things being sold. • Things being left behind. • Things no one was about to get their furry little mitts on. “Oh, fuck!”, I startled. I had just remembered the John Wick-ian stash of various explosives, and adjunct materials I had buried in the basement. Obviously, I couldn’t take it home with me, I couldn’t sell it, and I sure as festering frothing fuck wasn’t going to leave it here. I needed to call one of my more shifty and swarthy friends and arrange for passage out to the deep, dark desert. Around the area where the new sultan had opened a couple of brand new landfills. Looks like I was going to expand them a few meters once we disposed of the few hundred kilos of accumulation I attained over the last few years. See, I’m a packrat. I never leave nor toss anything that might be convenient. Might have a benefit. Might prove to be useful sometime down the line. So, I’ve accumulated a bit of kit. Like…well…a few hundred sticks of Du Pont 60% Extra Fast Dynamite. A couple dozen spools of Z-4 Primacord, in various degrees of fullness. A shitload of C-4; enough bricks for a Floydian wall. A couple, well, a dozen, well, two dozen cases of binary liquid explosives. Hey, this stuff is hard to come by… Continuing, several thousand blasting caps and superfast flash blasting cap boosters. Some mercury fulminate. Some nitrogen triiodide. A couple tens of pounds of PETN. An equal amount of RDX. A few Erlenmeyer flasks full of shit even I’m not certain of what it is… Oh. And a few kilos of freshly decanted, raw nitroglycerin; packed in sturdy wooden boxes lined with new fuzzy lamb’s wool. Not that much. Just 10 or 12 kilos. Yeah. I can’t leave that here. Even a small accident with this stuff would lay waste to not only our villa; but my landlord’s villa with whom we share a common wall. Besides, as Omanis go, my landlord was the only dishdasha dressed denizen for which I had any respect or admiration. He was a good guy. I needed to return his villa at least in some semblance of what I received when we first rented from him. So, I had to dispose of many, many billions of kilojoules of potential energy. I needed to do this out in a distant and far away from prying ears and eyes regions and I needed a truck to haul this stuff out to the range. To be continued… submitted by Rocknocker to Rocknocker [link] [comments] My uneventful hysterectomy experience + smooth recovery at 4 1/2 weeks postop I'd like to show my thanks for you folks who have provided so many useful tips on this sub by sharing my fairly standard/normal hysterectomy experience and week by week recovery. It's a long, detailed post but TL;DR: my experience is similar to folks who have had a normal recovery with no complications and manageable pain and discomfort and I highly recommend surgery! (I'm including insomnia and mood swings as normal, since I kept my ovaries and I'm coming off hormonal medication as well, lol.) I waited until 4 weeks before posting because even though I felt great during the first few days after surgery, I wanted to wait and see if complications and weird stuff popped up afterwards. Nope! It has been a delightfully smooth recovery: only very little spotting 2 days after surgery then no bleeding even up until now. My surgeon checked out my vaginal cuff 3 1/12 post-op and she said it was healing nicely, no pain when she touched the cuff and no bleeding. Background: I'm a non-binary (they/her pronouns,) femme- and androgynous-presenting 35 year old, overweight and sedentary except for light walking. No kids, never gave birth or had an abortion. No top/bottom surgeries and no hormones apart from norethindrone 5-10 mg to stop bleeding/periods and manage pelvic pain a year before surgery. Most of the dysphoria for me post-op is the swollen belly (I look quite pregnant especially during the first 3 weeks) but I'm trying to reframe the swollen belly as looking really cute :) and that the swelling will go away eventually, even though it'll take months. But having no uterus is really awesome! I like the emptiness and lack of heaviness and fatigue from the uterus/fibroids/endo. I did grieve losing parts of my body but this process was months before surgery. First surgery ever for adenomyosis, endometriosis, and multiple fibroids; total laparoscopic hysterectomy (LAVH): delivered 7 cm fibroid vaginally (!), only kept ovaries and a vaginal cuff was sutured where my cervix used to be. 6 cm endometrioma on right ovary removed, endo excision on partially obliterated cul-de-sac and uterosacral ligaments. Biopsies confirmed adeno in uterus and endo in endometrioma and excised tissues. Took hormones until 3 1/2 week post-op checkup when surgeon allowed me to stop using them. Surgeon expects low recurrence of endo. I had short notice (3 weeks) for my surgery due to COVID-19 precautions at the hospital, but I was waitlisted for almost a year beforehand. How the weeks played out post-op: After surgery: going under anesthesia and waking up in the recovery room happened in seconds. I felt pain which was 3-4/10 but never really went beyond 5-6 (at that point I requested pain meds); most of the pain came from gas pain which touched on the parts that had surgery so it hurt, but I didn't have the dreaded shoulder pain. The catheter was uncomfortable but I asked the nurse to adjust the tubing which sort of helped. I wore the hospital robe during my overnight stay, which had some tiny blood stains from my incisions. I mostly slept and was woken up by nurses during their rounds of checking my blood pressure and temperature. I drank coffee and lots of watejuice after my catheter was removed the next morning and before being discharged. Didn't use my phone and didn't need my toiletries, wore the same maxi dress and slip-on shoes as what I came in the hospital with. Week 1: most of the discomfort and pains (especially gas) happened this week: ice packs helped along with taking OTC pain meds (tylenol/acetaminophen and naproxen) on a regular schedule and narcotics (tramadol) only a couple of times cause I was afraid of constipation. I made sure to include stool softeners (eg Miralax) in-between pain meds. No fatigue and only 2 days of light spotting; no discharge as well. Incisions were healing normally and were itchy at the end of week 1. Had urine leakage so I purchased additional incontinence pads but I already had this issue prior to surgery. Watched a lot of Netflix/Prime Video while reclined on couch and paced around the house a lot (usually after peeing a lot due to all the fluids) to help get rid of gas/prevent blood clots; activated charcoal didn't helped me, I had to ride out the gas pain. Had pressure while peeing but wasn't painful, also peed a lot due to drinking lots of fluids and eating soups. My BM on the second day was gassy and loose at first, but became more solid when I had another BM that same day, so I didn’t phone the surgeon’s office. I had more BMs than before surgery (went once a day before, then twice a day post-op) and I used a small stool in lieu of a Squatty Potty to help me poop; doing the "moo" sound instead of straining was a big help! I was also really hungry and ate more than usual; more like frequent, smaller meals: a lot of toast/rice, some fruit, and lots of soups with chicken and vegetables. No housework and didn't lift anything heavier than half a gallon (~2 litres.) Week 2: I had fewer abdominal and back pains compared to the first week and I continued to feel great; ab/incision pains went away eventually by the end of this week. No discharge but still felt pressure from peeing, so I purchased urine tests that were a dollar each from the pharmacy (which also checks for blood and proteins) and I didn't have a UTI. I still used ice packs at the start of the second week but stopped them once I started taking a small dose of cannabis during the day and edibles at night. I stopped naproxen before taking cannabis but this point, I could have also taken tylenol if cannabis wasn't a option, but I didn't like the idea of taking tylenol for long periods of time (can affect the liver.) I gradually increased my walking from slow walking around the block to averaging about 3-4k steps up and down sidewalks in the neighbourhood despite walking very slowly. My surgeon allowed me to do light low impact exercise two weeks onwards. My belly felt more swollen after long walks, likely due to increased activity. Felt tired in the afternoons but I attribute this to the long walks and sleeping less than 8 hours. Still no housework and didn't lift anything heavier than half a gallon (~2 litres.) Felt more emotional this week, cried a bit from post-op blues (wasn't major depression, but thinking about what my body went through up until this point made me sad and angry) but my husband listened to my feelings and I felt better. Week 3: I felt my body starting to normalize (fewer BMs, not so hungry/thirsty) and sitting down became more comfortable (fewer instances of external genitalia soreness) but "Beware Week 3" is correct! I did ~9000 steps one day at the start of week 3 cause I felt so good (big oops) and I felt more tired in the afternoon and a bit more soreness (mostly leg soreness from the long distance walked.) I rested a few days after and took it easier and it's all good. Still no discharge and even on the 3 1/2 week mark when my surgeon did the post-op checkup, my cuff was healing well and my ovaries looked well. Surgeon recommended pelvic floor therapy as I mentioned the urine leakage. Started to get really bored but walking helped, just not overdoing it. I tried modified, really gentle yoga/pelvic floor exercises/chair yoga and felt sore, but rested afterwards and the soreness resolved. Pressure from peeing continued to decrease, now I can feel my bladder emptying when I pee and I sit for a little bit after peeing for the rest of the pee to come out. I was cleared to drive but at this point, twisting was still uncomfortable. I started experiencing insomnia so when it got really bad, I would take cannabis oils/edibles again and I was able to sleep continuously. Week 4: Smoke from west-coast forest fires kept me stuck at home so I continued to rest (watch TV and Reddit,) do a little bit more bending/squatting and even picked up a load of laundry under 20 pounds (surgeon cleared me to lift anything under 20 pounds but no lifting furniture for 3 months.) No bleeding despite doing those movements. Swollen belly is very slowly becoming less swollen but it's still swollen. I can tolerate wearing high-waisted leggings/joggers now but jeans and anything too tight around the belly (even tank tops/shirts) are a no go. I still have persistent lower back pain but no abdominal pain so I wonder if my back took a lot of the pressure from day to day activities instead of my abs; massage and heat packs help. What helped me pre- and post-op: Positive self-talk/reassurance, even though I was worrying a lot before surgery. I reminded myself that hysterectomies are common procedures (high success rate) and that I have a support system (spouse, housemates, psychologist) to help me with recovery. Reading recovery stories on this sub helped me have a realistic view of the surgery. I also mentally braced myself if my ovaries had to go but thankfully my surgeon was a rockstar and that my right ovary with endometrioma ended up being healthy. My husband took a couple of weeks off work to help me out: he dropped off/picked me up from the hospital, got groceries and helped prepare food on stovetop, and assisted with getting me in/out of bed and with showers. I would suggest having help from a partnefriend/family member at least a week post-op as second week isn't as bad as the first week. Having food delivered sometimes! Having easy to prepare food made by my husband/parents that was easy to reach/reheat also really helped me. Purchasing items to prepare for recovery: Raised toilet seat + arms for a really low toilet, especially helpful for the first couple of weeks when my ab muscles were so weak and sore. Also baby wipes! Small pillow for the drive home (to cushion against the seatbelt) and holding against my belly when standing up/walking on the first week. I also purchased another cute, soft whale plushie from Miniso (like a Japanese dollar store) to sleep/cuddle with. Bath chair for showetub. It was so comforting to sit and have a hot shower as I can't have a bath until the 8 week mark. The moist heat helped with the soreness and it was nice to be able to shower and towel-dry myself independently. I still needed help to get out of the tub to avoid falling/slipping, a suction cup grab bar and tub mat also helps with this. Wedge pillow + lots of pillows on my side and under my knees. I shared a bed so I went with this option but I'm sure those C-shaped pregnancy pillows will also help. Multiple plastic cups with straws: I was so thirsty and having watejuice on hand also helped me have regular BMs. Glasses were heavy during the first week and the plastic cups helped me get extra fluids in. Hanes nightshirts (my fave! looks like a giant t-shirt that goes down to my knees) and Fruit of the loom plus-size high-waisted panties from Amazon, both 2-3 sizes up for the swollen belly. I was peeing so often in the first couple of weeks from soups and drinking so much water that I didn't wanna fuss with pants. I wore other (thrifted) t-shirt dresses and slip-on shoes for walks cause I didn't want anything touching my swollen belly. No effort/easy to swallow food such as applesauce and pudding. As naproxen had to be taken with food, I ate applesauce and pudding with naproxen when the timing was before/after meals. Also pudding was a nice treat when I felt so crappy. Popsicles! My throat was a little sore from intubation, so the ice chips were heavenly in the hospital, and popsicles helped a lot during the first week. It was the height of summer as well at the time, so popsicles also helped keep me cool. Following pre- and post-op instructions from hospital and doctor's office. I stopped vitamins and asprin-like meds a week before surgery, followed the no food after enema the night before surgery, and only drank the approved fluids (water and apple/cranberry juice) up until an hour before I was admitted to the hospital. If you don't follow pre-op instructions, you may be denied surgery. For post-op, my only instructions aside from the OTC pain meds schedule were no full intercourse and no baths/swimming for 8 weeks, light low impact exercise 2 weeks onwards, and visit the ER if any symptoms of surgical complications show up (didn't need to). So in addition to that, I followed the guidelines that I frequently saw on the sub: no bending, no lifting over 5 pounds, and going up stairs one step at a time and taking breaks when needed. Lots of slow walking. (I didn't have restrictions from my surgeon but if you do, follow them.) Cannabis (in small doses,) which is legal where I live. After I finished 10 days of naproxen, I stopped tylenol and I tried 5 mg THC/CBD edibles at night and I was finally able to sleep for 6-7 hours straight. The cannabis numbed my pain in a more effective way compared to tramadol, tylenol, and naproxen. In hindsight, I wish I took cannabis sooner instead of bearing with tylenol and naproxen but I followed doctors orders and I didn’t know if the cannabis would interfere with anesthesia post-op. I also took a high CBD oil (1.5 mg THC: 25 mg CBD) during the day, which helped mute most of the pain during the day on the second week. Having a routine. Since I'm having an easy recovery, having a routine helps me not feel down and have things to focus on/look forward to. My routine is having a couple of walks between breakfast and dinner and watching TV/reading a book during the afternoon/after dinner. Please feel free to ask questions, I'm happy to help! I hope your surgery goes smoothly as well and for those recovering, I hope your recovery continues to be smooth sailing. :) submitted by tarpfest to hysterectomy [link] [comments] Should you try shooting sports? Many people who get interested in guns and start shooting soon find out that there are a number of shooting sports out there. A lot of those shooters wonder whether that kind of shooting is for them. Maybe they’re not good enough? Maybe it’s only for the really hard core shooters? Maybe it’s super expensive? Maybe you have to be invited, or know a member of the club, or be former military? Do you have to be a really competitive person to enjoy it? Should you delay getting into the game until you are “good enough”? This post is intended to answer some of those questions. The short answer is that if you’ve been shooting long enough to safely handle a gun around others, know how to generally operate your firearm(s), and can hit where you are aiming at least some of the time, you can start playing shooting sports. At least in the United States, that is – the barriers can be higher in some other countries. But there are robust competitive shooting communities in a lot of countries around the world, including most of western Europe and other places you might not expect. Let’s run down some of the reasons people delay or avoid trying their hand at a gun game. • I’m worried I’m not good enough.” Good enough to WHAT? To win? You’re NOT. Not good enough to WIN against people who have been playing these games for years. But that’s OK. Nobody would expect a new guy or gal to show up and win. What competitive shooters care about in terms of the new participant is: safety; attitude; safety; willingness to learn and help; and safety. OK, you get it. By and large, when a new shooter shows up to a match/game/field/whatever, the existing players don’t wonder “how good is he going to be?” They wonder “how safe is he going to be?” If you are a safe gun handler, you’re about 85% of the way home. If you’re interested in learning about the game, generally pleasant to be around, and, if needed, willing to lend a hand to keep the match going, chances are really, really good you will be welcome REGARDLESS of how you shoot. • “I just want to wait until I’m a little better.” Guess what? No matter how long you wait (or practice on your own), you’re probably not going to get good enough to show up and dominate out of the gate. Do you think you’ll get better faster by practicing alone, in isolation, with no learning sources except youtube and a subreddit? Or by meeting lots of really experienced shooters, getting to watch what they do up close, getting to ask questions of them, getting objective feedback on how you’re doing, etc.? Right, the latter. Wherever your shooting skill is right now, if you start competing tomorrow, you’ll be a better shooter this time next year than if you wait and start competing in a year. • “I’m not really a competitive person, and I don’t like super competitive people, trash talking, people trying to wager, etc.” Don’t worry. A lot of people who shoot the gun games do it because they LOVE TO SHOOT and gun games offer the most interesting shooting challenges… not because they feel the need to dominate others. There are actually relatively few intensely competitive people in many of the gun games – and they’re not going to be trying to flex on the new guy or gal. Sometimes you’ll overhear some good natured ribbing among friends, but shooting sports people are overwhelmingly encouraging to others while being very hard on THEMSELVES. There are lots of people who have shot for years and never won a darn thing. But they’ve made a lot of friends, learned a lot, had a lot of good times, etc. Competitive outcomes are secondary for a LOT of people. • “I’m worried it’s too expensive.” OK, this one does have a tiny kernel of truth, depending on the game. There are a small number of gun games where even the entry level gear is pretty expensive, but in most gun games the gear is either not that impactful on outcomes or there are equipment divisions that keep things under control and create some relatively inexpensive options. If you’ve got a service-grade/field-grade gun, chances are good there’s some game you can use it in where you’re not just taking a tricycle to a motocross rally. The more significant aspect is that people who get into gun games tend to shoot a lot. You will find shooting in games is more fun than static range work, so you’ll want to shoot matches. You’ll also want to improve (and you’ll have good ideas and information about how to do it), so you’ll want to practice more. It varies by game, but if you fall down the rabbit hole on, for example, USPSA, you might end up shooting 10,000 rounds in a year and be far from the highest-volume shooter in your immediate circle! But that’s self-directed/driven. If you can afford to shoot 500 rounds a month for the pistol games or the shotgun games, or half or a quarter of that for the accuracy-oriented rifle games, you can play and make progress. But you will end up spending more on ammo. That’s one reason so many competitive shooters take up reloading! • “I’m worried my gear isn’t legal.” Possibly. But it’s probably legal for some game, or can be traded for other gear that is legal. Although plenty of people get into competitive shooting and end up buying specialized competition gear (guns and other stuff), most gun games don’t have a whole lot of crazy rules designed to keep people OUT. Most of the gear rules are to control stuff that would be a competitive advantage, not set some minimum floor of baller-ness. In my preferred game (USPSA), you can rock a Hi-Point if you want… but not a binary trigger. • “Do I have to be invited?” In the United States, generally the answer is no. Most of the more popular games are open to anyone who pays the appropriate match or other fees, agrees to abide by the rules, is legally allowed to possess firearms, etc. That goes even for a lot of matches that are held at otherwise-private, member’s-only facilities. The national governing organization for most of the sports will help you find local matches/events and contact information for the people who run them. You can then easily email, call, or message those local folks, and they’ll be happy to tell you if the match is open to the general public – chances are very, very good it is, and that they will want you to come! • “I’m worried I won’t like anyone, and they won’t like me.” There are no guarantees, but the minute you show up, you’ve got a big plus in your column – you’re also someone interested in guns and maybe the game everyone else there already loves. In most of the gun games, there is quite a bit of standing around and talking, and you’ll get to know people quickly – but because there is a game going on, there’s no painful small talk. You can just talk about the sport! It’s super easy social interaction, even for introverts. “I’m worried it will just make going to the square/lane range kind of boring by comparison.” That one’s true, just like scuba diving the great barrier reef makes swimming laps in the pool kinda boring. So if those are the big reasons for people not to try shooting sports, what are the reasons to try it? • It will make you a better shooter. • It will make you a safer shooter. • You will almost surely make new friends. • It will launch you on a new hobby and journey of discovery. “Eh, I’m still on the fence.” OK. Go watch one of the gun games. Most of the sports are perfectly happy to have people watch a match and talk to participants. These aren’t really big spectator sports, but most of us will gladly explain what’s going on, what gear you need, the basics of the rules, etc., to someone who shows up and is just curious. “OK, that sounds kind of interesting in the abstract… how do I know which game to try?” That’s another post. If people want it, I’ll be happy to post that, too, in a few days. submitted by Madeitup75 to Informedgunowners [link] [comments] Voices needed: Rust compiler privacy issues saw on privacy and hackernews that the rust compiler leaks usernames and paths, might be other stuff not yet found, and voices are needed to speak out against this. also thought i saw something similar on twitter about this. many people use their actual names, or in the case of windows, names from microsoft accounts as their pc logins. this means if they share a release binary they can be doxxed by the rust team due to what they embed in the binary. made worse since even if they find it getting something removed from crates.io is difficult if not impossible. so their info is out there with no recourse. ci isnt always an option or some dont know how to use so this shouldnt be expected that everyone ci all projects all the time. and what if they do use ci on proprietary business systems, possibly leaking buisiness secrets or info. a type of dox at best, or legal issue at worst. dont think of just yourself but fellow devs who may use rust. rust is getting a great rep but this may cause issues with this. as said nobody knows what else they hide and this could set a bad prescedent. please add your voices to get this fixed and not set a precedent like this going forward. as far as i know no other languages do similar type of underhanded behavior. also: ignoring the privacy issues this causes issues with reproducible builds. something i build on my machine is different then if its on another because the username is different at least. coupled with the fact this also causes different hashes means users cannot even be sure they dont have something tampered with. github issues linked in other posts: https://github.com/rust-lang/rust/issues/40552 https://github.com/rust-lang/rust/issues/75263 submitted by Ambitious-Bit4083 to rust [link] [comments] My Beginners Guide to Choosing the Right Server I am here to tell you the difference between commonly used Minecraft Server Variations (Paper), Minecraft APIs (Bukkit), and server connectors (Bungee). Minecraft Servers: Vanilla: Vanilla is the official server that is downloadable on Mojang’s website. This is officially supported and endorsed by Mojang. There are no modifications and is almost the same as a constantly running LAN game. CraftBukkit: CraftBukkit is the original modified Minecraft server. It has the ability to run plugins and is a modification of Minecraft’s code. CraftBukkit was partially shut down due to copyright issues with Mojang. Now the only way to get it is through BuildTools by Spigot. {Uses Bukkit API} Spigot: A fork of CraftBukkit. Spigot was created to do right to the things CraftBukkit did wrong. Spigot is one of the most popular servers to run. It has optimizations, more settings, and solved the legal issue that CraftBukkit had. This was done through BuildTools. It basically is the officials server but more complicated to that the binary is not the same. This means that you have to compile the server on your own, though it really only requires a few clicks. Spigot also has an extended API. This allows many more plugin options and more possibilities. {Uses Spigot API} Paper: A fork of Spigot. Spigot is getting slower and people don’t like running BuildTools. There are also many unfixed exploits and bugs in the Spigot code. That is where Paper comes int. As a fork of Spigot, it can also run plugins. Paper also has it’s own extended API of Spigot API. This adds even more features. Paper is considered by many the best Minecraft server to run due to the fact that it is faster than Spigot, has more options than Spigot, and has many bug fixes that Spigot doesn’t have. Another plus of Paper is that there is no BuildTools. You just download and run the jar. They have already compiled the code for you meaning you just put it in a folder and run it. {Uses Paper API} Forge: A server for Mods. Forge is a modded server. It also has a modded client. Plugins differ from mods because mods require client side modifications. Basically you can join a server with plugins from any Minecraft client but you can only join a Forge server from a modded client. The advantage of mods is that it completely changes Minecraft. Mods have the ability to edit practically every line of Minecraft’s code making it the most customizable out of all of the servers. However, it requires a modded client and requires stronger hardware. {Uses Forge} Sponge: Sponge was made to be an optimized forge server. In other words what Sponge is to Forge is what Spigot was to CraftBukkit. Sponge uses forge in the server but provides many optimizations and bug fixes. The only downfall is that it lost support after 1.12 likely due to Minecraft practically being rewritten and the developers not being able to keep up {Uses Sponge API} Next we have the API that allows plugins to run. Note: These won’t work on Vanilla and only work on certain servers: Bukkit API: The original plugin API. Bukkit API is the base for most of the Modern APIs. Bukkit provides many features. If you are developing a plugin, you are likely using some version of this. It is integrated into CraftBukkit. Spigot API: The popular fork of Bukkit API. Spigot API is a better version of Bukkit API and it has additional features. This is the most commonly used API. It is integrated into Spigot. Paper API: A fork of Spigot API. Paper API is Spigot API with more classes. Paper API would be the best API but a majority of servers are still on Spigot. It is integrated into Paper. Sponge API: Sponge API is a standalone API for developing plugins that work with Sponge. You will likely only use this if you have a Sponge server. Forge: Forge isn’t exactly an API, but it is a platform for creating mods. Forge is used by Forge and is in Forge and Sponge. Lastly, we have the Reverse Proxy Server Connectors. These allow you to create a network of multiple servers while it still looks like 1 server. Note: Most of these will work with almost any of the Server Variations. BungeeCord: BungeeCord is one of the most popular Reverse Proxy Server Connectors. BungeeCord was created by and is maintained by the Spigot Team. BungeeCord has direct support with Spigot servers. Waterfall: Waterfall is a fork of Bungee Cord. Waterfall provides more features and customization than BungeeCord which is why it is so popular. Waterfall was created by and is maintained by PaperMC. Waterfall is designed to work with Paper. Others: There are many other forks of Spigot/Waterfall and I am too lazy to look them up. If you would like to please mention them and their features in the comments That’s that. This is my beginners guide to Minecraft Server Variations, APIs, and Reverse Proxies. Finally, I know what you are thinking. WHERE IS FABRIC IN THERE! Well I don’t know or use fabric so I can’t talk much about it. There are many people more qualified that me to describe fabric. If you know fabric comment it and what it does so more people can understand it. Also, just to point out I spent 1.5 HOURS typing this so please don’t be rude if I messed up or forgot something. submitted by I-Is-crouton to admincraft [link] [comments] Daughters don’t believe in church, one doesn’t believe in God Ok, I’m struggling with my kids. I have 4 daughters. The 2 oldest are out of the home. Both left the church but still believe in God. My youngest 2 are 15 and 14. Let’s call them E and G respectively. A week or so ago, G broke down to me and said she feels like she is non-binary. She was worried her dad and wouldn’t love her anymore. I reassured her that we would always love her no matter what and that there was nothing in this universe that could make us stop loving her. I’ve known for a while that she’s been struggling with the church and her testimony. But this seemed to come out of left field. She wanted to change her name and her hair color. I told her we wouldn’t legally change her name and she was fine with that. I also told her we would not do any medical hormone therapy and she’s fine with that. She isn’t interested in that. I talked to her about what the leadership manual says about it and I just talked to her from my heart. She seems to be ok, but still feels the same way. We also let her color her hair, which she loves. E came to me today begging to not attend seminary this year. This will be her first year. Our older girls also didn’t attend seminary and I feel like it had a lot to do with them leaving the church. Then E told me she isn’t even sure God is real. I shared my testimony with her and we talked for a while. But she begged me not to make her go to seminary. I asked her to try to have a little faith and pray again about God. She reluctantly agreed. Seminary this year is home study with one zoom meeting a week. E is extremely introverted so I thought home seminary would sound better for her. We live in a small branch that has made things harder for our girls. I have NEVER had a problem with my testimony. It’s so hard for me to understand how they don’t see Gods’ work in the world. I guess I can kinda see it, but I’ve just never had to struggle to see God. So I don’t know what to do. We haven’t been to church since March, and probably won’t be back anytime soon because my husband is high risk. We are struggling to do lessons at home. My husband and I are both disabled and I’m pretty much bedridden so we can’t go out and do things, so we are stuck at home and all they do is play on their devices. That’s all we can do. We don’t have the money to provide them better opportunities or options of things to do. So idk what to do to help them. I feel like they are going down a hole that will be very hard for them to get out of. Any ideas on how to help? Any good church videos I can show them? Good talks? submitted by marysue17 to latterdaysaints [link] [comments] Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (But Were Afraid To Ask) Hello, dummies It's your old pal, Fuzzy. As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great. What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. I do my bit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so emphatically - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post. That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way. We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps. Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy. TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle. Ready? Let's get started. 1. The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows: Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself. Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part. You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus. That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it. Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets? 2. A Hedging Taxonomy The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now. (i) Swaps A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one. Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered. The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game. I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging. There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested. Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure). (ii) Forwards A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me. Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways. People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances. These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them. (iii) Collars No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray! To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts. (3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years. First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA. Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire. Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking? Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama. Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details. I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here. Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post. EDIT 1\ In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open. submitted by fuzzyblankeet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Binary Options Recovery: Scammed Traders, Fake Brokers, and Funds Recovery Following the “permanent temporary” measures against binary options and CFDs (contract for difference), the body in charge implements its own set of limitations that simply forbids regulated houses to offer such product in the UK, hence increasing the risk of pushing retails traders towards illegal brokers and outright scams. Fortunately, a new solution is now available to UK traders via a new United Kingdom Financial regulatory ruling. More scrutiny from UK banks about financial transactions, even to binary optionsIn short, banks will have to take more responsibility about the financial transactions they facilitate. This new ruling should lead to the creation of a new code of conduct that will help defrauded people to have their funds recovered by their bank, unless it is proven they acted recklessly. As a popular Financial blog puts, it, “It is likely that should a bank or credit card company be either impersonated by a fraudster in order to gain money, or trick a client into depositing, and the bank allows the transfer, a client will be able to take recourse. The broad protection should kick for many online scheme and scams, whether it is fake investment companies, fraudulent binary options brokers or those scammers who promise to help you recover your stolen funds…only to steal from you once again. On the other hands, it means the banks will be more likely to forbid transactions to legit businesses, such as reputable cryptocurrency exchanges or honest smart options platforms. The regulating bodies and financial institutions are taking a number of measures to prevent financial fraud. Binary options trading, in particular, is being controlled with a greater degree of robustness to protect the unwary general public being drawn into a situation where they suffer financial losses. Many hundreds of people around the world are targeted each day. ![img](prwn4ha2ecf51 " ") Frequently they are novice investors who are unfamiliar with the markets and do not recognize that the so-called trading platform and its way of working are actually bogus. The individual only realizes the extent of the fraud when eventually when the fraudsters finally decide that there is no more money to be had and shut down the account and promptly vanish without trace. Spotting Fraudulent Binary Options Broker Some lawyers in the financial fraud division are very familiar with the pattern of behaviour demonstrated by the fraudulent brokers and the distress caused by their dealings with inexperienced investors. There is a track of record of recovery in relation to financial fraud and has a number of strategies and tactics to compel the fraudulent broker or associated financial service providers to restore funds to those who have been deceived. Needless to say, the fraudsters are accomplished at hiding their tracks and frequently there are myriad inter-connected limited liability companies, often some are registered in different countries, with some dormant and some active. It is hardly surprising if the complexity of the situation results in a failure to discover a single person who can be challenged and held accountable. However, there are various channels financial fraud lawyers use when attempting to retrieve money for clients and each avenue is investigated. Whilst an individual may be alarmed and confused at the prospect of navigating through the complex structures that have been deliberately set up to confuse, Financial fraud lawyers are usually quite familiar with strategies fraudsters use, and frequently can steer a course to the recovery of some or all of the lost money. https://preview.redd.it/daa505b3ecf51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b27aa7697b0bf1afbd238964166ce40c693db2e3 The step of last resort, legal action, is understandably daunting for a person who often has lost significant amounts of money to the fraudulent brokers. It is fully understandable that such a situation will leave the victim decidedly risk-averse. There have been experiences with class actions against the fraudulent brokers and has developed links with litigation funding organizations in order to offset the risk in respect of class actions. The lessons that can be drawn from the experiences of those individuals who have had the misfortune of losing their investments to fraudsters are to be extremely cautious. Always consider every offer or investment for at least 48 hours before making a decision, a genuine broker will understand the caution that a new investor will view a proposition. All investments carry a risk and anything that promises a return on your initial investment seems to be significantly higher than normal it is almost certainly not to be trusted. Do not allow yourself to be hurried into a decision, it is highly unlikely that an authentic broker would try to rush you into an investment, especially if you demonstrated reluctance; their reputation would suffer by such behaviour. You can now recover all money lost to bitcoin, binary options, cryptocurrency, investment, scam by hiring any one of these Verified Wealth Recovery Experts. To recover money lost to binary options, forex, bitcoins, cryptocurrency, and investment, get all the information you need here; https://bitcoinbinaryoptionsreview.com/binary-options-uk-scammed-traders-fake-brokers-and-funds-recovery/ submitted by sinenyoku to u/sinenyoku [link] [comments] B1048 - Gender Recognition (Reform) Bill - Division Gender Recognition (Reform) Bill A Bill To Reform the grounds and procedure in order to obtain gender recognition; and for connected purposes BE IT ENACTED by the Queen's most Excellent Majesty, by and with the advice and consent of the Lords, and Commons, in this present Parliament assembled, and by the authority of the same, as follows:- 1 - Definitions: The “2004 Act” refers to the Gender Recognition Act 2004. The “2015 Acts” refers to the Gender Equality Act 2015 and the Gender Equality Enhancement Act 2015 2 - Amendments to the 2004 Act (1)The following provisions of the 2004 Act are repealed— Section 1 (3) and (4) and consequently Schedule 1 and the definition of “Gender Recognition Panel” under Section 25. Section 2, except for (5) as amended — (5) Where gender markings are required to denote gender identity in all official documentation including but not limited to Passports, Driving Licenses and correspondence from Government Departments, a non binary person shall be afforded the option to denote their legal gender identity an ‘x’, or as ‘non-binary’ and consequently the definitions of “Gender Dysphoria” and “approved country or territory” under Section 25 are repealed Section 3 in its entirety and consequently the definition of “Chartered Psychologist” under Section 25. Section 4 in its entirety and consequently Schedule 2. Section 6 in its entirety Section 7 in its entirety Section 8 in its entirety Section 10 (1A) (a) Section 11 in its entirety and consequently schedule 4 Section 13 in its entirety and consequently schedule 5 Section 21 in its entirety (2) The following sections in the 2004 Act are amended— In Section 1 (1), replace “either gender” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof,” and in subsection (a), replace “the other gender” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof,” and in subsection (b) insert “identity, or lack thereof” after “gender” and in subsection (c ) replace “either gender” with “any gender identity” In Section 1 (2) , insert “identity” after gender in the definition “the acquired gender”, and in subsections (a) and (b), add “identity, or lack thereof” after references to “gender” and subsequently add “identity” after “acquired gender” in Section 10 (5) and Section 25 In Section 17, replace mentions of “a full gender recognition certificate has been issued to any person or revoked” with “a person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, has become, or ceased to be” In Section 20, replace “to whom a full gender recognition certificate has been issued were not” with “had not become” In Section 22, replace (2) with: (2) “Protected Information” means information that relates to a person: (a) who has made an application for a gender recognition certificate and which concerns that application or any other application by that person under this Act. (b) whose gender identity, or lack thereof, has become the acquired gender identity and concerns the gender identity before it became the acquired gender identity. In Section 25, omit references to “interim gender recognition certificate” (3) Insert a new section into the 2004 Act, reading: 2A - Applications to the Registrar General Schedule 3A (Applications to the Registrar General) has effect . And Schedule 3A shall be implemented as per the schedule of this Act. 3 - Amendments to the 2015 Acts Section 2 in the Gender Equality Act 2015 is repealed in its entirety, and consequently Section 2 of the Gender Equality Enhancement Act 2015 is repealed. 4 - Amendments to the Equality Act 2010 In Section 27 of Schedule 3, replace— in subsection (1) and (6) “one sex” with “the same gender identity” in subsection (2), “sex” with “the same gender identity” in subsections (3) and (4), “both sexes” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof ” in subsection (4), “each sex” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof” in subsection (6), “opposite sex” with “a different gender identity, or lack thereof ” in subsection (7), “that same sex” with “that same gender identity” And insert subsection (9) reading, “A person using a service should be under no obligation to disclose their gender identity or be excluded from using a service based on their perceived gender identity, or lack thereof” And insert subsection (a) after (9) reading, “any exclusion based on perceived gender identity, or lack thereof, or based on a person’s gender which has ceased to be the same as their acquired gender, shall be treated as discrimination based on gender identity.” And rename the cross heading “Single Sex Spaces” to “Same Gender Identity Spaces” 5 - Extent, Commencement and Short Title (1)This Section and Section 4 extends to England and Wales, and Scotland (2) Section 1, Section 2, Section 3 and consequently the Schedule of this Act extends to England and Wales only. (3)This Act comes into force 6 months after Royal Assent. (4) This Act may be cited as the Gender Recognition (Reform) Act 2020. #Schedule Insert in the 2004 Act: Schedule 3A - Applications to the Registrar General 1 - Interpretations In this section, “Registrar General” shall refer to the Registrar General for England & Wales. 2 - Persons who may apply to the Registrar General for Gender Recognition (1)A person making an application under Section 1 (1) of this Act may do so if they meet the condition that: (a) is a subject of a UK birth registry entry or; (b) is not the subject of such an entry, but is an ordinary resident in England or Wales. 3 - Notice to be given by Registrar General upon receipt of application (1)On receipt of an application under Section 1 (1) of this Act, the Registrar General must notify the applicant in writing, including electronic form: — (a) that the application has been received (b) the date by which a Gender Recognition Certificate will be provided. (c)that the applicant has the right to revoke the Gender Recognition Certificate during the intermission period and is not limited to applying for a Gender Recognition Certificate again after this period. (d)reiterate that there is no cost for applying for a Gender Recognition Certificate in this instance or in future instances of application. 4 - Ground for which application is granted (1)The Registrar General must grant application under section 1 (1) of this Act if— (a) the application includes a statutory declaration by the applicant that the applicant meets the criteria of: (i) Section 1 of this Act (ii) Section 2 of this Schedule (2) A statutory declaration shall be the only requirement by the Registrar General to process an application for a Gender Recognition Certificate (a) An applicant may declare they intend to live in their acquired gender permanently but the absence of this must have no bearing on the processing of a Gender Recognition Certificate. (b) there shall be no charge for requesting a Gender Recognition Certificate at any instance of any application by an applicant. (3)An application for a Gender Recognition Certificate is considered revoked if the applicant sends written notice stating their wish for the application to not continue before the day that a Gender Recognition Certificate is issued 5 - Certificate to be issued by the Registrar General (1)The Registrar General must issue a Full Gender Recognition Certificate to an applicant by the date given under Section 3 (1) of this Schedule. (2) If there is a delay in the issuing of the Gender Recognition Certificate, the Registrar General must inform the applicant, in writing, the reasons for such a delay. (3) If there is an error in print, an applicant may, in writing, inform the Registrar General. (a) The Registrar General must inform the applicant when the error will be fixed by, and issue a replacement Gender Recognition Certificate. 6 - Gender Recognition obtained outside of England & Wales (1)When a person has obtained a Gender Recognition Certificate in Scotland or Northern Ireland, — (a) the person has, for all purposes, received a Gender Recognition Certificate as issued by the Registrar General. (b) the person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, is the acquired gender identity (2) When a person has obtained overseas gender recognition — (a) the person has, for all purposes, received a Gender Recognition Certificate as issued by the Registrar General. (b) the person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, is the acquired gender identity (3) in this Act, an “overseas gender recognition” means gender recognition recognised in a country or territory outside of the United Kingdom, which resulted in a person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, becoming the acquired gender identity. This bill is written by The Rt Hon. Sir CountBrandenburg GCMG KCB CT CVO CBE PC MP MLA on behalf of the Liberal Democrats and co-sponsored by The Labour Party, The People’s Movement, Democratic Reformist Front and The Conservative and Unionist Party and inspired by the draft Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill Acts referenced: The Gender Recognition Act 2004 The Gender Equality Act 2015 The Gender Equality Enhancement Act 2015 The Gender Recognition (Amendment) Act 2018 Section 27 of Schedule 3 of the Equality Act 2010 The Equality (Amendment) Act 2020 Please vote Aye/No/Abstain only. This division shall end on Friday 17th July at 10PM BST submitted by CountBrandenburg to MHOCMP [link] [comments] B1048 - Gender Recognition (Reform) Bill - Final Division Amendment 1, in the name of the Earl of Avon, is not agreed to. Division! Clear the bar. Gender Recognition (Reform) Bill A Bill To Reform the grounds and procedure in order to obtain gender recognition; and for connected purposes BE IT ENACTED by the Queen's most Excellent Majesty, by and with the advice and consent of the Lords, and Commons, in this present Parliament assembled, and by the authority of the same, as follows:- 1 - Definitions: The “2004 Act” refers to the Gender Recognition Act 2004. The “2015 Acts” refers to the Gender Equality Act 2015 and the Gender Equality Enhancement Act 2015 2 - Amendments to the 2004 Act (1)The following provisions of the 2004 Act are repealed— Section 1 (3) and (4) and consequently Schedule 1 and the definition of “Gender Recognition Panel” under Section 25. Section 2, except for (5) as amended — (5) Where gender markings are required to denote gender identity in all official documentation including but not limited to Passports, Driving Licenses and correspondence from Government Departments, a non binary person shall be afforded the option to denote their legal gender identity an ‘x’, or as ‘non-binary’ and consequently the definitions of “Gender Dysphoria” and “approved country or territory” under Section 25 are repealed Section 3 in its entirety and consequently the definition of “Chartered Psychologist” under Section 25. Section 4 in its entirety and consequently Schedule 2. Section 6 in its entirety Section 7 in its entirety Section 8 in its entirety Section 10 (1A) (a) Section 11 in its entirety and consequently schedule 4 Section 13 in its entirety and consequently schedule 5 Section 21 in its entirety (2) The following sections in the 2004 Act are amended— In Section 1 (1), replace “either gender” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof,” and in subsection (a), replace “the other gender” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof,” and in subsection (b) insert “identity, or lack thereof” after “gender” and in subsection (c ) replace “either gender” with “any gender identity” In Section 1 (2) , insert “identity” after gender in the definition “the acquired gender”, and in subsections (a) and (b), add “identity, or lack thereof” after references to “gender” and subsequently add “identity” after “acquired gender” in Section 10 (5) and Section 25 In Section 17, replace mentions of “a full gender recognition certificate has been issued to any person or revoked” with “a person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, has become, or ceased to be” In Section 20, replace “to whom a full gender recognition certificate has been issued were not” with “had not become” In Section 22, replace (2) with: (2) “Protected Information” means information that relates to a person: (a) who has made an application for a gender recognition certificate and which concerns that application or any other application by that person under this Act. (b) whose gender identity, or lack thereof, has become the acquired gender identity and concerns the gender identity before it became the acquired gender identity. In Section 25, omit references to “interim gender recognition certificate” (3) Insert a new section into the 2004 Act, reading: 2A - Applications to the Registrar General Schedule 3A (Applications to the Registrar General) has effect . And Schedule 3A shall be implemented as per the schedule of this Act. 3 - Amendments to the 2015 Acts Section 2 in the Gender Equality Act 2015 is repealed in its entirety, and consequently Section 2 of the Gender Equality Enhancement Act 2015 is repealed. 4 - Amendments to the Equality Act 2010 In Section 27 of Schedule 3, replace— in subsection (1) and (6) “one sex” with “the same gender identity” in subsection (2), “sex” with “the same gender identity” in subsections (3) and (4), “both sexes” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof ” in subsection (4), “each sex” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof” in subsection (6), “opposite sex” with “a different gender identity, or lack thereof ” in subsection (7), “that same sex” with “that same gender identity” And insert subsection (9) reading, “A person using a service should be under no obligation to disclose their gender identity or be excluded from using a service based on their perceived gender identity, or lack thereof” And insert subsection (a) after (9) reading, “any exclusion based on perceived gender identity, or lack thereof, or based on a person’s gender which has ceased to be the same as their acquired gender, shall be treated as discrimination based on gender identity.” And rename the cross heading “Single Sex Spaces” to “Same Gender Identity Spaces” 5 - Extent, Commencement and Short Title (1)This Section and Section 4 extends to England and Wales, and Scotland (2) Section 1, Section 2, Section 3 and consequently the Schedule of this Act extends to England and Wales only. (3)This Act comes into force 6 months after Royal Assent. (4) This Act may be cited as the Gender Recognition (Reform) Act 2020. #Schedule Insert in the 2004 Act: Schedule 3A - Applications to the Registrar General 1 - Interpretations In this section, “Registrar General” shall refer to the Registrar General for England & Wales. 2 - Persons who may apply to the Registrar General for Gender Recognition (1)A person making an application under Section 1 (1) of this Act may do so if they meet the condition that: (a) is a subject of a UK birth registry entry or; (b) is not the subject of such an entry, but is an ordinary resident in England or Wales. 3 - Notice to be given by Registrar General upon receipt of application (1)On receipt of an application under Section 1 (1) of this Act, the Registrar General must notify the applicant in writing, including electronic form: — (a) that the application has been received (b) the date by which a Gender Recognition Certificate will be provided. (c)that the applicant has the right to revoke the Gender Recognition Certificate during the intermission period and is not limited to applying for a Gender Recognition Certificate again after this period. (d)reiterate that there is no cost for applying for a Gender Recognition Certificate in this instance or in future instances of application. 4 - Ground for which application is granted (1)The Registrar General must grant application under section 1 (1) of this Act if— (a) the application includes a statutory declaration by the applicant that the applicant meets the criteria of: (i) Section 1 of this Act (ii) Section 2 of this Schedule (2) A statutory declaration shall be the only requirement by the Registrar General to process an application for a Gender Recognition Certificate (a) An applicant may declare they intend to live in their acquired gender permanently but the absence of this must have no bearing on the processing of a Gender Recognition Certificate. (b) there shall be no charge for requesting a Gender Recognition Certificate at any instance of any application by an applicant. (3)An application for a Gender Recognition Certificate is considered revoked if the applicant sends written notice stating their wish for the application to not continue before the day that a Gender Recognition Certificate is issued 5 - Certificate to be issued by the Registrar General (1)The Registrar General must issue a Full Gender Recognition Certificate to an applicant by the date given under Section 3 (1) of this Schedule. (2) If there is a delay in the issuing of the Gender Recognition Certificate, the Registrar General must inform the applicant, in writing, the reasons for such a delay. (3) If there is an error in print, an applicant may, in writing, inform the Registrar General. (a) The Registrar General must inform the applicant when the error will be fixed by, and issue a replacement Gender Recognition Certificate. 6 - Gender Recognition obtained outside of England & Wales (1)When a person has obtained a Gender Recognition Certificate in Scotland or Northern Ireland, — (a) the person has, for all purposes, received a Gender Recognition Certificate as issued by the Registrar General. (b) the person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, is the acquired gender identity (2) When a person has obtained overseas gender recognition — (a) the person has, for all purposes, received a Gender Recognition Certificate as issued by the Registrar General. (b) the person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, is the acquired gender identity (3) in this Act, an “overseas gender recognition” means gender recognition recognised in a country or territory outside of the United Kingdom, which resulted in a person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, becoming the acquired gender identity. This bill is written by The Rt Hon. Sir CountBrandenburg GCMG KCB CT CVO CBE PC MP MLA on behalf of the Liberal Democrats and co-sponsored by The Labour Party, The People’s Movement, Democratic Reformist Front and The Conservative and Unionist Party and inspired by the draft Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill Acts referenced: The Gender Recognition Act 2004 The Gender Equality Act 2015 The Gender Equality Enhancement Act 2015 The Gender Recognition (Amendment) Act 2018 Section 27 of Schedule 3 of the Equality Act 2010 The Equality (Amendment) Act 2020 This division ends 1 August 2020 at 10pm BST. Please vote Content, Not Content, or Present only. submitted by lily-irl to MHOLVote [link] [comments] Power REIT -- Stock analysis and Value Investors Club application This is my Value Investors Club application on Power REIT. Tell me what you think. Power REIT is a real estate trust with investments in solar, railroad, and newly in medical cannabis greenhouses. Thesis:Power REIT (PW) is the best way to invest in the cannabis area without the traditionally binary hit or miss nature of emerging industries.PW is anchored by a portfolio of traditional properties allowing it to more safely and at lower cost invest in cannabis assets.PW earns a return on invested capital (ROIC) in great excess of the cost of capital. Return of 12%-19% in new properties, recently issued bonds at 4.62%.PW is under valued despite a seemingly rich market price because of probable massive increase in revenue, earnings, and funds from operation (FFO).The margin of safety is significant. Significant Assets:6 Controlled Environment Agriculture greenhouse facilities aggregating over 131,00 square feet7 solar farm ground leases totaling 601 acres112 miles of railroad propertyApprox. $10 mil. cash Significant Liabilities:Approx. $24 mil. Long term debt at interest rates less than or equal to 5%Major debt: $15,500,000 at 4.62% fully amortizing, maturing in 2054Maturities as follows:2021 $635,5022022 $675,3742023 $1,168,2972024 $715,7772025+ $21,208,698Preferred stock: 144,636 shares of 7.75% Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Stock, at $25. General info:Power REIT is currently pursuing investment in what they call controlled environment agriculture or CEA, essentially greenhouses. PW seeks out strictly medical cannabis producers who for whatever reason need additional financing, they then purchase the real estate they own and lease it back to them, and at times help with financing of construction. PW is one of the few ways for cannabis producing companies to get any sort of financing as federally it is still illegal and banks are weary. This gives PW lots of negotiating power in deal making, and that is why they can for example, buy and finance a 5.2 acre CEA property in southern Colorado for around $1 Mil. and get a straight lined rent of $192,000 equating to around a 19% FFO yield. These properties and tenants are of greater quality than the typical cannabis operation, remember they require tenants to maintain a medical cannabis producers license in the lease. That is a key for PW, this is not a speculative cannabis play that is dependent on federal legalization, on the contrary, a lease they have in a Maine property includes the clause that states that "After the deferred-rent period, rent is structured to provide a 12.9% return based on the original invested capital amount with annual rent increases of 3% rate per annum. At any time after year six, if cannabis is legalized at the federal level, the rent will be readjusted down to an amount equal to a 9% return on the original invested capital amount and will increase at a 3% rate per annum based on a starting date of the start of year seven." PW is partly a play against the federal legalization. On the topic of debt:A company with a market cap of under $50 mil with about $24 mil in debt might seem a little risky, but here is where the stability from the solar and rail assets comes in. Their existing FFO from those two asset classes is a little over $1 mil while the debt payments with exception of 2023 don't exceed $1 mil for the foreseeable future. So as long as they don't issue new debt in an uncharacteristically bad way PW will have no solvency issues. Management:Management is skill-full. The CEO David Lesser is pretty much for all intents and purposes the whole company, he is the sole full time employee. He is excellent in terms of real estate expertise. It is very clear he knows his stuff. He has a long history in real estate and more specifically in renewable/clean energy real estate. Lesser is also the chairman of the board, and the largest shareholder. He gets paid exclusively in various forms of equity. His interests are aligned with owners interests. Insider ownership is around 30%, very high for a REIT. Lesser is also key on avoiding share dilution as stated, and in practice unlike many REITs. There have been no share dilutions besides management's compensation plan. The major recent financing was the 2019 bond issuance. Relative PricingFor this section I will refer to Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) another publicly listed REIT that invests in cannabis assets. IIPR invests in a wider range of assets like retail not just CEA. I am much more suspicious of IIPR's real estate and management. There have been many questions raised about the quality of real estate and solvency of tenants. The CEO seems sleazy and they constantly dilute shareholders. I think PW is superior in terms of intangibles and tangibles. IIPR is PW only publicly traded comparable. IIPR has grown FFO per share 133% for the MRQ YoY. PW has grown FFO per share 107% over the same time. PW only started investing in high return CEA in late 2019, and engage in more conservative financing, so the difference in growth rates is marginal. IIPR is currently being priced at around 19.1 times forward 12 months FFO.PW is priced at only 14 times forward 12 months FFO. (If management's most basic expectations are met)In terms of relative price PW, if it sold at the 19.1 multiple it would be selling for $32.4 which I still think could yield an above market rate of return over time. ValuationI believe PW to be the type of business that the market undervalues because of high uncertainty but low risk. The high uncertainty comes from not knowing how much management will want to grow and raise capital, will management continue to use safe amounts of leverage, will new financing options become available to cannabis companies etc. The low risk comes from the fact that PW has very low risk of going to 0 or even decreasing substantially in share price because of the current safety in investment return and diversification. I'll put a floor as to what I think a low risk price is. Let's say base case scenario over the next year PW invests the existing $10 mil. in cash at a yield of 12.5% (below the usual yield of around 18%), doesn't raise any additional capital, and lease payments are collected and debts paid as scheduled. PW FFO per share would be about $0.45 per quarter. If they trade at an P/FFO multiple of 20 (PW currently trades at 27) that makes the price $36 per share. However, I do think capital will be raised, management has expressed interest in doing so. In that case the strong ROIC and high cash flow would give PW a high ceiling to grow as far as macroeconomic and market conditions allow. Catalyst Share price increases when new real estate acquisitions are announced. Eventual dividend. PW currently pays no dividend because the preferred has satisfied the REIT return of capital requirement recently, however with income rising 100%. It is likely a dividend will be coming soon and that will attract more attention. Continued performance and time. Edit: as a disclaimer, I am Obviously long PW submitted by DryReading0 to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments] I have a question Hello! My name is Dolly and I am a bisexual non-binary, I am currently getting my name changed legally but I have a few questions about pronouns. So, most non-binary people have they/them as their pronouns and/or more. But I just have one question, What do we like.. what are we? In the sense of like, Miss [Last Name] or Sir [Last Name]? Because I don’t really want to be miss or sir, but there isn’t a non-binary option. I’m confused if there is and haven’t heard about it, but if someone knows please tell me! submitted by JustHappyTo to Nonbinaryteens [link] [comments] ASIC Regulation Thread - Regarding the proposed changes ( Australians effected the most ) I'm hopeless at formatting text, so if you think you can structure this post better take everything i write and put it into an easy to digest way. I'm just going to type out everything i know in text as fast as possible. I'm not a legal expert, I'm not somehow who understands every bit of information in the PDF's below, but i know I'm a retail trader that uses leverage to make profit which is why I'm posting this, in the hope that someone who can run a charge better than me, will. Some of you are already aware of what might be happening, this is just a post to educate retail traders on changes that might be coming to certain brokers. This effects Australian Customers the most, but also effects those living in other countries that use Australian brokers, such as Pepperstone and others. Last year in August 2019, ASIC ( Australian Securities and Investments Commission ) was concerned about retail traders going into Forex and Binary options without understanding these instruments properly and started sticking their noses in for tough regulation. ASIC asked brokers and anyone with interest in the industry to write to them and explain what should and should not change from the changes they proposed, some of the proposed changes are very misguided and come from a lack of understanding exactly how OTC derivatives actually work. I will provide the link to the paper further down so you can read it yourself and i will provide a link to all the submission made by all parties that sent submissions to ASIC, however the 2 main points of debate are: 1, To reduce the overall leverage available to retail traders to either 20:1 or 30:1. This means people who currently use leverage such as 100:1 to 500:1 and everything in between will be effected the most, even more so are those traders with relatively small accounts, meaning in order to get your foot in the door to trading you will need more capital for it to be viable. ^^ This point above is very important. 2, The removing of Binary options trading, which basically includes products like "Bet if gold will rise to this price in the next 30 seconds" This sort of stuff. So far from all the submissions from brokers and individuals nobody really cares if this changes as far as i know, though if you have concerns about this i would start voicing your disapproval. Though i would not waste your time here, all is pointing to this being eradicated completely with brokers also supporting the changes, I've never used such a product and know very little about them. ^^ This point above isn't very important and will probably be enforced in the future. Still to this day i see retail traders not understanding leverage, they think of it as "dangerous and scary", it's not, position size is the real danger, not leverage. So ASIC is aiming to limit retail traders access to high leverage, they are claiming it is a way to protect traders who don't really understand what they are getting into by attacking leverage and not the real problem which is position size relative to your capital. If it was truly about protecting retail traders from blowing up their accounts, they would look for ways to educate traders on "understanding position sizes and why it's important" rather than attacking leverage, but their goal is misguided or has an ulterior motive . I will give you a small example below. EXAMPLE - We will use 2 demo accounts for demonstration purposes. If you don't understand my example, i suggest you try it for yourself. - Skip if not interested in examples. Lets say we open 2 demo accounts with $1000 in both, one with 20:1 leverage and one with 500:1 leverage and we open an identical position on both accounts ( say a micro lot '0.01' on EURUSD ). You are safer on the 500:1 account as you don't need to put up as much margin as collateral as you would on the 20:1. If the trade we just opened goes against us and continues against us, the account with 20:1 leverage will run out of free margin a lot faster than the 500:1 account. In this simple example is shows you that leverage is not dangerous but safer and gives you a lot more breathing room. This trade was a small micro lot, so it would take hundreds of pips movements to get margin called and blow up that $1000 on each account. Lets now use a different position size to truly understand why retail traders blow up accounts and is the reason why trading can be dangerous. This time instead of opening a micro lot of '0.01' on our $1000 dollar demo accounts, lets open a position size much larger, 5 lots. Remember we only have $1000 and we are about to open a position much larger relative to our capital ( which we should never do because we can't afford to do that ) the 20:1 probably wont even let you place that trade if you don't have enough margin as collateral or if you could open the position you would have a very tiny amount of free margin left over, meaning a small pip movement against you will instantly blow up your $1000 account. On the 500:1 account you wouldn't need to put up as much margin as collateral with more free margin if the trade goes bad, but again a small movement could blow up your account. In this example, both accounts were dangerous because the lack of understanding position sizes, opening a position you can't afford to open. This is what the true danger is, not the leverage. Even in the second example, the higher leverage would "margin call" you out later. So i would go as far to say that lower leverage is more dangerous for you because it margin calls you out faster and just by having a lower leverage doesn't stop you from opening big positions that can blow you up in a 5 pip movement anymore, any leverage size is dangerous if you're opening positions you can't afford to open. This is also taking into consideration that no risk management is being used, with risk management higher leverage is even more powerful. ASIC believes lowering leverage will stop people opening positions that they can't afford. When the reality is no matter how much capital you have $500, $1000, $5000, $50,000, $500,000, $5,000,000. You don't open position sizes that will blow that capital up completely with small movements. The same thing can happen on a 20:1 or 500:1 account. Leverage is a tool, use it, if your on a lower leverage already such as 20:1, 30:1 it means your country has been regulated and you already have harder trading conditions. Just remember higher leverage allows you to open larger position sizes in total for the amount of money you own, but the issue is NOT that your using the higher leverage but because you are opening positions you can't afford, for what ever reason that is, the only fix for this is education and will not be fixed by simply lowing leverage, since you can just as easy blow up your account on low leverage just as fast or if not faster. So what is going on? There might ( get your tinfoil hats on ) be more that is involved here, deeper than you think, other agendas to try and stop small time retail traders from making money via OTC products, theories such as governments not wanting their citizens to be traders, rather would prefer you to get out there and work a 9 to 5 instead. Effective ways to do this would be making conditions harder with a much larger barrier of entry and the best way to increase the barrier of entry for retail traders is to limit leverage, lower leverage means you need to put up more money, less breathing room for trades, lower potential. They are limiting your upside potential and the downside stays the same, a blown account is a blow account. Think of leverage as a weapon, a person wielding a butchers knife can probably destroy a person wielding a steak knife, but both knifes can prove fatal. They want to make sure your holding the butter knife then tell you to butcher a cow with it. 30:1 leverage is still workable and can still be profitable, but not as profitable as 500:1 accounts. This is why they are allowing professionals to use high leverage, this gives them another edge over successful retail traders who will still be trying to butcher a cow with a butter knife, while they are slaying limbs off the cow with machetes. It's a way to hamstring you and keep you away rather than trying to "protect" you. The real danger is not leverage, they are barking up the wrong tree, how convenient to be barking up the very tree most retail traders don't fully understand ( leverage) , pass legislation to make trading conditions harder and at the same time push the narrative that trading is dangerous by making it even harder. A full circle strategy to make your trading conditions worse, so you don't succeed. Listen carefully especially if you trade with any of the brokers that have provided their submissions to ASIC. Brokers want to seem like they are on your side and so far some of the submissions ( i haven't read them all ) have brokers willing to drop their leverage down to 30:1 because they know by dropping the leverage down it will start margin calling out their clients at a much faster rate, causing more blown up accounts / abandoned accounts with residual margin called funds, but they also know that if they make trading environments too hard less people will trade or even worse move their funds elsewhere offshore to unregulated brokers that offer higher leverage. Right now it's all just a proposal, but as governments expand and continue to gain more control over it's citizens, it's just a matter of time till it's law, it's up to you to be vocal about it, let your broker know that if they drop their leverage, you're out, force them to fight for you. If you have any more information related to this, or have anything to add, post below. I'm not an expert at this technical law talk, i know that i do well with 500:1 leverage and turn profits with it, it would be harder for me to do on a lower leverage, this is the reason for my post. All related documents HERE CP-322 ( Consultation paper 322 ) & Submissions from brokers and others. https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/find-a-document/consultation-papers/cp-322-product-intervention-otc-binary-options-and-cfds/ submitted by southpaw_destroyer to Forex [link] [comments] Widow unaware of credit card debt Hi everyone - I wish the circumstances were different, but I am here seeking advice for my newly-widowed mother. My father recently passed away, and, in going through his things, we became aware of not immaterial CC debt that she was not aware of. She lives in CA, where they raised me and have lived since 1971. There is life insurance, so she should be fine in the short-term. Medium-term, however, I have some concerns about her financial runway. If it is at all relevant, the life insurance will go into a trust (of which she is now the sole trustee). If we assume she is not a joint account holder (i.e., assuming my dad didn’t forge her signature on the docs), I wonder what her legal options are? Those I can think of include: a) Do not pay anything and let his now irrelevant credit rating take a beating. b) Attempt to negotiate a settlement directly. c) Hire a third party to negotiate a settlement on my mom’s behalf. d) Honor the debts he incurred and pay the debt from her life insurance proceeds. I am sure there are other considerations that are less binary, but those are the ones that come to mind. While I do struggle with the morals of potentially not honoring his debt, my primary focus at this point is providing my mother with the greatest amount of financial freedom possible (and, of course, conducting ourselves lawfully with respect to the debt). To be clear, this man was a legend to me and I will forever love him, respect him and cherish our time together. He was, unfortunately for all, not great with money and terrible about asking for help. Nobody is perfect, but he got pretty close in my eyes. Thank you for any thoughts you might be willing to share. submitted by Mckelder to personalfinance [link] [comments] B1048 - Gender Recognition (Reform) Bill - Amendment Division Gender Recognition (Reform) Bill A Bill To Reform the grounds and procedure in order to obtain gender recognition; and for connected purposes BE IT ENACTED by the Queen's most Excellent Majesty, by and with the advice and consent of the Lords, and Commons, in this present Parliament assembled, and by the authority of the same, as follows:- 1 - Definitions: The “2004 Act” refers to the Gender Recognition Act 2004. The “2015 Acts” refers to the Gender Equality Act 2015 and the Gender Equality Enhancement Act 2015 2 - Amendments to the 2004 Act (1)The following provisions of the 2004 Act are repealed— Section 1 (3) and (4) and consequently Schedule 1 and the definition of “Gender Recognition Panel” under Section 25. Section 2, except for (5) as amended — (5) Where gender markings are required to denote gender identity in all official documentation including but not limited to Passports, Driving Licenses and correspondence from Government Departments, a non binary person shall be afforded the option to denote their legal gender identity an ‘x’, or as ‘non-binary’ and consequently the definitions of “Gender Dysphoria” and “approved country or territory” under Section 25 are repealed Section 3 in its entirety and consequently the definition of “Chartered Psychologist” under Section 25. Section 4 in its entirety and consequently Schedule 2. Section 6 in its entirety Section 7 in its entirety Section 8 in its entirety Section 10 (1A) (a) Section 11 in its entirety and consequently schedule 4 Section 13 in its entirety and consequently schedule 5 Section 21 in its entirety (2) The following sections in the 2004 Act are amended— In Section 1 (1), replace “either gender” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof,” and in subsection (a), replace “the other gender” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof,” and in subsection (b) insert “identity, or lack thereof” after “gender” and in subsection (c ) replace “either gender” with “any gender identity” In Section 1 (2) , insert “identity” after gender in the definition “the acquired gender”, and in subsections (a) and (b), add “identity, or lack thereof” after references to “gender” and subsequently add “identity” after “acquired gender” in Section 10 (5) and Section 25 In Section 17, replace mentions of “a full gender recognition certificate has been issued to any person or revoked” with “a person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, has become, or ceased to be” In Section 20, replace “to whom a full gender recognition certificate has been issued were not” with “had not become” In Section 22, replace (2) with: (2) “Protected Information” means information that relates to a person: (a) who has made an application for a gender recognition certificate and which concerns that application or any other application by that person under this Act. (b) whose gender identity, or lack thereof, has become the acquired gender identity and concerns the gender identity before it became the acquired gender identity. In Section 25, omit references to “interim gender recognition certificate” (3) Insert a new section into the 2004 Act, reading: 2A - Applications to the Registrar General Schedule 3A (Applications to the Registrar General) has effect . And Schedule 3A shall be implemented as per the schedule of this Act. 3 - Amendments to the 2015 Acts Section 2 in the Gender Equality Act 2015 is repealed in its entirety, and consequently Section 2 of the Gender Equality Enhancement Act 2015 is repealed. 4 - Amendments to the Equality Act 2010 In Section 27 of Schedule 3, replace— in subsection (1) and (6) “one sex” with “the same gender identity” in subsection (2), “sex” with “the same gender identity” in subsections (3) and (4), “both sexes” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof ” in subsection (4), “each sex” with “any gender identity, or lack thereof” in subsection (6), “opposite sex” with “a different gender identity, or lack thereof ” in subsection (7), “that same sex” with “that same gender identity” And insert subsection (9) reading, “A person using a service should be under no obligation to disclose their gender identity or be excluded from using a service based on their perceived gender identity, or lack thereof” And insert subsection (a) after (9) reading, “any exclusion based on perceived gender identity, or lack thereof, or based on a person’s gender which has ceased to be the same as their acquired gender, shall be treated as discrimination based on gender identity.” And rename the cross heading “Single Sex Spaces” to “Same Gender Identity Spaces” 5 - Extent, Commencement and Short Title (1)This Section and Section 4 extends to England and Wales, and Scotland (2) Section 1, Section 2, Section 3 and consequently the Schedule of this Act extends to England and Wales only. (3)This Act comes into force 6 months after Royal Assent. (4) This Act may be cited as the Gender Recognition (Reform) Act 2020. #Schedule Insert in the 2004 Act: Schedule 3A - Applications to the Registrar General 1 - Interpretations In this section, “Registrar General” shall refer to the Registrar General for England & Wales. 2 - Persons who may apply to the Registrar General for Gender Recognition (1)A person making an application under Section 1 (1) of this Act may do so if they meet the condition that: (a) is a subject of a UK birth registry entry or; (b) is not the subject of such an entry, but is an ordinary resident in England or Wales. 3 - Notice to be given by Registrar General upon receipt of application (1)On receipt of an application under Section 1 (1) of this Act, the Registrar General must notify the applicant in writing, including electronic form: — (a) that the application has been received (b) the date by which a Gender Recognition Certificate will be provided. (c)that the applicant has the right to revoke the Gender Recognition Certificate during the intermission period and is not limited to applying for a Gender Recognition Certificate again after this period. (d)reiterate that there is no cost for applying for a Gender Recognition Certificate in this instance or in future instances of application. 4 - Ground for which application is granted (1)The Registrar General must grant application under section 1 (1) of this Act if— (a) the application includes a statutory declaration by the applicant that the applicant meets the criteria of: (i) Section 1 of this Act (ii) Section 2 of this Schedule (2) A statutory declaration shall be the only requirement by the Registrar General to process an application for a Gender Recognition Certificate (a) An applicant may declare they intend to live in their acquired gender permanently but the absence of this must have no bearing on the processing of a Gender Recognition Certificate. (b) there shall be no charge for requesting a Gender Recognition Certificate at any instance of any application by an applicant. (3)An application for a Gender Recognition Certificate is considered revoked if the applicant sends written notice stating their wish for the application to not continue before the day that a Gender Recognition Certificate is issued 5 - Certificate to be issued by the Registrar General (1)The Registrar General must issue a Full Gender Recognition Certificate to an applicant by the date given under Section 3 (1) of this Schedule. (2) If there is a delay in the issuing of the Gender Recognition Certificate, the Registrar General must inform the applicant, in writing, the reasons for such a delay. (3) If there is an error in print, an applicant may, in writing, inform the Registrar General. (a) The Registrar General must inform the applicant when the error will be fixed by, and issue a replacement Gender Recognition Certificate. 6 - Gender Recognition obtained outside of England & Wales (1)When a person has obtained a Gender Recognition Certificate in Scotland or Northern Ireland, — (a) the person has, for all purposes, received a Gender Recognition Certificate as issued by the Registrar General. (b) the person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, is the acquired gender identity (2) When a person has obtained overseas gender recognition — (a) the person has, for all purposes, received a Gender Recognition Certificate as issued by the Registrar General. (b) the person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, is the acquired gender identity (3) in this Act, an “overseas gender recognition” means gender recognition recognised in a country or territory outside of the United Kingdom, which resulted in a person’s gender identity, or lack thereof, becoming the acquired gender identity. This bill is written by The Rt Hon. Sir CountBrandenburg GCMG KCB CT CVO CBE PC MP MLA on behalf of the Liberal Democrats and co-sponsored by The Labour Party, The People’s Movement, Democratic Reformist Front and The Conservative and Unionist Party and inspired by the draft Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill Acts referenced: The Gender Recognition Act 2004 The Gender Equality Act 2015 The Gender Equality Enhancement Act 2015 The Gender Recognition (Amendment) Act 2018 Section 27 of Schedule 3 of the Equality Act 2010 The Equality (Amendment) Act 2020 Amendment 1, in the name of the Rt Hon. the Earl of Avon remove from 2 - Amendments to the 2004 Act the following text; "Section 2, except for (5) as amended — (5) Where gender markings are required to denote gender identity in all official documentation including but not limited to Passports, Driving Licenses and correspondence from Government Departments, a non binary person shall be afforded the option to denote their legal gender identity an ‘x’, or as ‘non-binary’" My Lords, while the UK offers gender non confirming individuals the ability to place an "x" on any gender identity for internal UK use, it has so far resisted doing so for passports in order to keep them in line with the intentional standards for the content of a passport. This was supported by the Court case R (Christie Elan-Cane) v Secretary of State for the Home Department That not issuing such documents is not discriminatory on the part of the Home Office. The case rejected a claim that such a policy voided Article 8 ECHR was rejected in part due to the fact the government in this current age was reviewing what documentation for gender non conforming individuals required. My Lords, As part of this consultation the Passport office, it's self-put out a warning based on the experience of those in Australia with an "x" marker on the effect of outing Oneself to the authorities of less accepting countries, the implications of a British subject not having there passport recognised and thus not being facilitated the rights that One can normally expect abroad or worse facing expressed prosecution because of information in One's passport is something this house should consider. It is for these reasons and not any other I wish for this chamber to debate in the next reading the inclusion of the aforementioned section in this Bill. This division ends 30 July 2020 at 10pm BST. Please vote Content, Not Content, or Present to Amendment 1. submitted by lily-irl to MHOLVote [link] [comments] Practicing SR since July 2017; currently have a 3+ month streak 2 accounts got shadowbanned for uploading this post. Spam filter kept on removing it this post. Messaged the moderators, but received no answer. Removed many links, so check post history for full version. First time making a Reddit post. Estimated Reading Time: 15 minutes Brief summary of post: History of Journey Using Subliminals (affirmations converted into audio) to reprogram the subconscious, overcome nocturnal emissions, and turbo-charge the Law of Attraction Experience from meditation retreats Massive booklist covering psychotherapy, spirituality, and general books such as negotiating and advanced social skills Fundamental shifts that occurred Experiences with semen-retention benefits How I overcame and conquered negative entities Tantric meditation method that actually works with zero side effects Experience on speaking Japanese for 1 full hour with native speakers without notes after 3 months of learning Terminology: Wet dream/WD – sexual dream causing semen emission while sleeping Nocturnal Emission/NE – semen emission occurring while sleeping even without dreaming Semen-retention/SR streak – avoiding porn, masturbation, and ejaculation whether conscious or unconscious Nofap Hardmode – avoiding porn, masturbation, and conscious ejaculation. Unconscious ejaculation/WD is considered fine. As the title suggests, my current streak started in the middle of June 2017. Haven’t watched any porn or masturbated in 3 years. Experienced almost all the benefits such as massive attraction (men, women, children), an aura/energy surrounding me, enhanced charisma, less need for sleep, insane levels of energy, drive, and motivation, zero anxiety or fear, massive confidence occasionally bordering on arrogance, increased manifestation/LOA, people admiring/respecting me for no reason, online attraction, less procrastination, better athletic performance, greater creativity/intelligence, the desire to live a purposeful life, greater emphasis on spirituality, and much much more. Could probably write several posts just on the benefits themselves. Only thing that didn’t improve was my skin, which was later fixed using subliminals. It’s been a long journey, so I’ll start with background information, and later elaborate on how I managed to go from nocturnal emissions every 5 days (avg) to having a perfect SR streak for 3 months. Used to watch anime which led to hentai (2013), and eventually western/japanese porn. Don’t even bother to search these terms on Google. It’s not worth it. Thankfully, those days are long behind me. As a side-note, I discovered the nofap/semen-retention subreddit in November 2017. Didn’t even know about SR before that. I was raised a Catholic in a fairly religious family. Always started various streaks, and eventually broke them due to boredom/emotional coping/curiosity about new videos. Thankfully, I got good grades, read books, and was interested in self-development, but all that time spent on porn was a complete waste. Assuming I spent at least 2 hours everyday for 4 years (1460 days), it amounts to 122 complete days or around 4 months in total. It’s pretty sad on reflection, but at least the experience is now absorbed, and I can write this post. On June 2017, after summer break started and final exams were over, I decided to permanently quit this habit. Downloaded an application called Cold Turkey and completely blocked all websites I used to visit. Now use Leechblock, which is available on most browsers (also use it to block/restrict access to non-NSFW websites which impair productivity like ESPN). Started 30 minutes of daily meditation (mindfulness + metta). Still continue the habits to this day, although the length is increased to 1 hour. Read Mindfulness in Plain English by Bhante Gunaratana and Lovingkindness by Sharon Salzberg for instructions. Have re-read these books multiple times. Mindfulness will allow you to be self-aware of your mental conditioning, while metta (feeling compassion for yourself, a friend, neutral person, and enemy) can remove thoughts of lust and fundamentally alter your mental programming. Compassion is a very powerful exercise. Read “The Mindful Path to Self-Compassion by Christopher Germer” while you’re at it and learn tonglen. All of these books contain zero fluff, and are invaluable reads. Started drinking 16 glasses of water (thought it would help skin, but helped in other ways), and doing 100 pushups + 100 sit-ups everyday. Increased it to 200 pushups + 200 sit-ups after 1 month. After 2 months, I made a decent amount of gains (SR helps), and people started asking me workout tips and what gym I go to. Had a Kindle Paperwhite, which is frankly one of my most valued possessions. Still works perfectly fine after 5 years, and costs only $130. Buy one now. Read a lot of books mostly consisting of biographies/spirituality/practical social skills/800+ page novels for around 6 hours per day. Still try to read for at least 15 minutes/1 chapter even when extremely busy. Will post a small booklist at the end of this post. You can upload books to it for free if you lack money. Visit (gen.lib.rus.ec), download the ebook in epub/mobi format, open it with Calibre (https://calibre-ebook.com/), and send it to Kindle using USB. Knowledge is an investment that produces continuous returns. Warren Buffett spends 80% of his time just reading! and takes action based on that knowledge. Even managed to have the motivation to learn Japanese by joining a foreign language exchange website. People, especially women, accepted and sent a lot of invitations to have a conversation; didn’t realize online attraction was due to SR back then. None of us showed our faces, so my physical appearance had nothing to do with it. From experience, the best way to learn a language was to make a phrase sheet with the most common phrases/questions, such as “okay”, “that’s awesome”, “what is that word in English/Japanese?” Basically a human AI bot. Don’t waste time trying to learn how to write the alphabet, although my primary purpose was to learn how to speak. Google Translate is good enough to understand the pronunciation. I learned Japanese primarily by watching Terrace House. First watched the episode with subtitles, then re-watched it without, while simultaneously writing all the connectives/conversational phrases. You can try unique methods to remember, but brute-force memorization/review worked the best. Never tried Anki since it was cumbersome to use. For the accent, the best way is to watch Japanese people trying to speak English, and try to mirror their accent as much as possible. It honestly helps. After 3 months, I could have a full 1 hour conversation in Japanese with a native speaker without looking at any notes. I wasn’t “fluent” (still stuttered and made mistakes), but it was a huge amount of progress for starting from scratch. Eventually after 6 months, I gave up practicing/speaking the language. I was mainly trying to fulfill a childhood fantasy, and I’m glad I tried since I learned a lot from it and got to talk with interesting people. But in reality, I stopped watching anime, and honestly never needed to speak Japanese in real-life. Now I barely remember any of the words, except a few basic phrases. Could probably last 30 seconds of full conversation at best. So, everything was going great until December 2017. During this time period, I probably had wet dreams/nocturnal emissions every 1 – 2 months. Barely felt much difference since there was a decent time interval between emissions. Drank 2 glasses of water everyday before bed, slept on my stomach, and ate spicy food (practices that cause nocturnal emissions), but was perfectly fine. However in December I started having emissions every 2 weeks. Initially didn’t care about it. In January it started happening every 1 week. Nothing really changed in my life during this time to cause emissions to increase. Then it started happening every 5 days, every 3 days, sometimes even 2 days in a row! Most of you will have no idea how terrible it feels to be on top of the world, and then suddenly crash down. The difference between living life with/without SR benefits is night and day. Even after sleeping 10 hours, I used to feel completely exhausted. People ignored me, or worse started “joking” around me. Complete disrespect by friends, family, and acquaintances. No energy/motivation to do anything. Constant brain fog, could barely concentrate. Felt even worse than my porn days when I ejaculated everyday. Voice completely shot, started feeling anxious about oral presentations for no reason, when I always excelled. Felt like my soul was dying. Those were really dark times. People started saying I “changed”, and started pointing out and constantly magnifying my flaws. It’s strange how people exaggerate our skills/talents on SR, while they completely ignore them post WD/ejaculation, and focus only on your flaws/mistakes. It makes you lose trust in everyone around you, as if all of them are energy vampires who only like you due to SR. I grew desperate. During this whole time I meditated, practiced no lust/no arousal as best as possible since July 2017, yet emissions increased massively in frequency. Some occurred due to sexual dreams, but most were nocturnal emissions. Thought I had a UTI at first, and went to a general practitioner. He didn’t seem very reliable, so I went to a prominent urologist. Did all sorts of tests, paid a good amount of money, and the doctor said everything was fine. Having nocturnal emissions every 5 days was perfectly normal at my age. Encouraged me to masturbate regularly if it became an inconvenience :) So medical science obviously failed. Started following all the tips/methods in this subreddit, and believe me I tried almost everything no matter how uncomfortable or time-consuming. Omad, avoid food/water before bed, vegetarianism, tantric meditation, different diets, various sleeping positions, no/increased meditation before bed, no/more exercise, yogic exercises, qigong, some tips mentioned by Soaring Eagle, prayed to God. None of them worked. The only method I didn’t try extensively were kegels. Initially tried a normal + reverse kegel routine, then found an article by coincidence on this subreddit about someone who permanently damaged their penis from doing kegels. Immediately stopped, thank you to that person for sharing your experience. It’s as if the universe was looking out for me. Best to avoid such risky methods even if you’re desperate. Currently sleep on my back since it avoids any "accidental physical stimulation" from occurring. So this nocturnal emission phenomena continued for over a year. Some methods worked better than others, while for some, I wasn’t sure if it was merely the placebo effect. In mid-2019 I came across subliminal videos (finally the good part!) on YouTube. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0W5AB1sGr0) This video explains it more thoroughly, but basically you convert affirmations (sentences like “I am happy/smart/handsome”) into audio using text-to-speech software and reprogram your subconscious mind. Tried a beauty subliminal (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEXaAsm-Iys) as a joke, but the next day I noticed changes in my facial structure. Listened for an hour the first day, which was easy given the music. You have no idea how amazing it feels to know that you can control your reality just by using your mind. Completely magical. Supposedly it works due to the Law of Attraction; you can find out more by reading/watching “The Secret” by Rhonda Byrne, and later reading all the books by Neville Goddard. Started using a skin subliminal as well (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqi8Q80pspk and later moved onto https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COxz8hvl14Y ), and now my skin is completely normal. Visited prominent US dermatologists, tried all sorts of acne medicine including Accutane, and even did SR, yet none of them worked. Skin was pretty terrible, and I was glad it got fixed. Took around 4 months of daily listening although it can be shortelonger depending on your belief, blockages, and levels of positivity. There’s a CIA document on holographic universes, astral projection, time travel, and psychic powers if you need scientific validation: https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP96-00788R001700210016-5.pdf Disclaimer: Although there can be bad subliminal makers, they are very rare, and there has been only 2 of them in the history of the community. Someone named MindPower and Rose subliminals. The vast majority (99%) put positive affirmations. It’s best that you verify by checking all the comments, seeing their subscriber count, general personality, etc, but ultimately there’s no guarantee. The only way to make sure the affirmations are 100% positive and safe are to make them yourself or use a subliminal that blocks negative affirmations. One thing to note is that physical change (biokinesis; search that term)/spiritual subliminals utilize the prana in your body to a certain extent to make changes. It makes sense since physical change is essentially a psychic poweenergy work. So your SR benefits/aura might temporarily decrease. Hydration is also recommended, and you will notice feeling thirsty. Personally drink 20 glasses of water everyday. Obviously, my interest now turned towards using subliminals to cure nocturnal emissions. Unfortunately there’s a huge lack of subliminals regarding semen-retention or those targeted towards nocturnal emissions. Initially bought a subliminal using a paid request (you pay a subliminal maker for a specialized subliminal), but it didn’t work that well. Desired to be permanently free of nocturnal emissions, or at least reduce the frequency to once a month. So I decided to make my own subliminal. The affirmations will be posted below, and this is how I eventually cured my nocturnal emissions. Steps on how to make your own subliminal: Write all the affirmations in a word document and save it. Download text-to-speech software like Balabolka and output the audio file in wav format (you want both uncompressed + lossless) Optional but recommended; download an audio editor like Audacity, and fast-forward the audio as much as possible using the “Change Tempo” effect. Personally I speed the audio to one second and then loop it 1000x. Continue the process as much as possible, but never make the audio length less than 1 second. Some subliminal makers make their subliminals even more powerful by creating multiple audio streams of their affirmations using different voices, merging all the voices together, and speeding them up. It’s called layering. Why super-sped affirmations work better can be somewhat explained by this article (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/sensorium/201812/experiments-suggest-humans-can-directly-observe-the-quantum), but science still doesn’t have all the answers. Will take time. Converting the affirmations to binary code (https://www.rapidtables.com/convert/numbeascii-to-binary.html) is a technique some subliminal makers use. Supposedly it penetrates the subconscious faster. Affirmations Link: https://www.reddit.com/pureretention/comments/hg0tjb/practicing_sr_since_july_2017_finally_conquered/ (same content; scroll down to the subliminal section and download the affirmations file from the mega link) Listened to this personal subliminal for 1 hour everyday for an entire month. Still listen just to be safe. Took months of testing and editing affirmations to make it perfect. Experienced massive sexual dreams on certain days, more than normal, and found out that entities could be responsible. Try to avoid this subreddit as well, since reading the posts can trigger memories. More energetically sensitive now, and sometimes there’s a lot of low-vibrational energy. On a side-note, porn cripples your aura and invites negative entities (https://www.awakeningstaryoga.com/blog/expanding-away-from-porn-aura). Non-subliminal solutions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMx69hgYq0s (morphic field) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWK0D1g069I (powerful aura cleanse; Tibetan bowl sounds) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7moRsibNyMA (reiki) Subliminal solutions (ordered in terms of effectiveness): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kt9s5tY1YE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvyPscRD1ss https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTmnrFzR0_Q (for spells, curses, black magic, etc) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kt9s5tY1YE (last resort) The entire channel is a gem; these were some of the best. Have used them for a few months and feel much lighter and peaceful; experienced only headaches due to subconscious absorbing the affirmations, but zero negative effects. Advice: Remember to immediately download any subliminal video you find that is useful in wav format (https://www.savethevideo.com/download). Subliminal channels are sometimes deleted by YouTube (spam filter) or the creators themselves. Waited 3 whole months before deciding to make a Reddit post to make sure the method was 100% foolproof. Remember many people offering solutions in the past, yet 1 month later they would have another wd/nocturnal emission. The first month there was a lot of fear. Will I have a wet dream/nocturnal emission tonight? Was so traumatized it was difficult getting to sleep every night. After the 2nd month, I experimented with sleeping on my stomach and eating/drinking before bed. Nothing happened. Stopped recently to stay careful. After 2 years of suffering, this is a method that has worked. Try and see for yourself. Present day: How do you feel now? Some days it’s meh (due to flatline) like today; on other days I feel divine. No idea why flatline still occurs. Have regained all the benefits, feel love and happiness all the time. Experience intense states of bliss in meditation more frequently, although it’s just a distraction. Religiously/Spiritually I’ve moved from Christianity to Buddhism/Advaita Vedanta/parts of New Age. Found them more practical and useful in life. Was inspired to aim for spiritual enlightenment after reading “The 3 pillars of Zen” by Philip Kapleau. Read it, it might change your life. Have attended a number of meditation retreats now, along with 10-day ones. Everyone reading this post should try it. Understood how much our mental programming defined us, and that we aren’t are thoughts. Our childhood traumas define so much of our habitual reactions. Realized its okay to feel bored rather than chasing after constant stimulation. Even attended a Jhana retreat, which is exclusive for people who have attended prior retreats. Entered intense states of meditative absorption, understood the permeability/impermanence of reality, and had all sorts of mystical experiences. Experienced past lives; can confirm my mind did not make it up, since it’s an experience you can constantly replicate using the same methods. Before attempting such methods, you need to have the ability to sit down and meditate continuously for at least 3 hours. If you live in the US, attend IMS (Insight Meditation Society) or any prominent Vipassana/Theravada related retreat. Zen is a valid form of enlightenment, but it personally felt unstructured. Gave up music, took time since I was convinced it was needed for creativity. Instead, it was just a substitute source of dopamine and a way to avoid my emotions. Have much less brain fog after quitting. Only communicate using regular phone calls these days, which no one uses, and Snapchat/WhatsApp for texting. Avoid stories, waste of time. Instagram/TwitteFacebook are a waste of time unless you are using it for business purposes. The only social media you really need is LinkedIn. Women: You’ll learn more about them by reading romantic novels, Korean mangas, and watching Kdramas then reading all that seduction/red pill stuff. Focus on general charisma (men and women) instead of a specific gender. Read “The Charisma Myth” by Olivia Fox Cabane; it’s the most practical book on social skills I have ever read, and possibly the most life-changing as well. Teaches you self-awareness, applies Buddhist psychology to social interaction. Used to train executives in Google, read it now (and do all the exercises). The bibliography sent me on a rabbit hole that made me read ton of books on psychotherapy, meditation, mindfulness, and Buddhism; this was before SR. Inspired me to practice meditation, although the habit only became regular after SR. Read books such as Crucial Conversations by Al Switzer, Difficult Conversations by Douglas Stone, How to Talk so Kids will Listen by Adele Faber (works very well in general since even adults have childhood programming, and can act like children), Never Split the Difference by Chris Voss (FBI's chief international hostage and kidnapping negotiator from 2003 to 2007), Getting More by Stuart Diamond (trains negotiators at Google), and Pitch Anything by Oren Klaff (more theoretical but useful). Also read The Definitive Book of Body Language by Allan Pease and What Every Body is Saying by Joe Navarro. These are all books that will greatly improve your human interactions and contain limited fluff. Have re-read all of these books in difficult times, and they have never let me down. You should read it as well. Even if you become a monk, there’s lots of social infighting even in monasteries. Highly-developed social skills are invaluable whenever you are dealing with individuals. Read “How to make friends and influence people” by Dale Carnegie once in a while, since most forget to apply his “basic” advice. Learned a lot about oral presentations by watching Alan Shore on Boston Legal (TV show). Current position in life? Studying for a bachelor’s degree. My family is financially well-off, and my father is paying for my college tuition and dorm. Scholarships aren’t available for all income levels. Although I come from “privilege”, the above information can help anyone regardless of their financial position. We live in an era where information is accessible to all social classes, so excuses aren’t that relevant. If you’re practicing SR, you are already 20 steps closer to success. The tips above can be applied for free as long as you have a computesmartphone. Read books starting from today, knowledge is a source of power. People spend so much time reading the news, scrolling social media feeds, reacting to comments, chatting about useless things with friends, binging shows on Netflix, browsing YouTube/Reddit, that time quietly passes by. Time is the most valuable commodity you have; don’t waste such a limited resource on things that will contribute nothing towards your purpose in life. Once it’s spent, you can never get it back. Personally, I schedule the next day before going to bed. Leisure, Reading, Schoolwork, Meditation, everything is mapped out perfectly. Try to eliminate habits that just waste time and stick to your schedule perfectly (working on it myself). If you feel tired after work/studying, take a nap or meditate instead of receiving even more stimulation from videogames, YouTube, or other artificial dopamine sources. Try NoSurf. Basic Booklist: Spirituality: The End of Your World by Adyashanti (fantastic writer; must-read if you have had an awakening experience or believe you are "enlightened") How to Attain Enlightenment -> The Essence of Enlightenment by James Swartz (best introduction to Advaita Vedanta I have read so far) I am That by Sri Nisargadatta Maharaj In the Buddha's Words by Bhikkhu Bodhi (best introduction to Buddhist scripture) Why Buddhism is True by Robert Wright (secular perspective but informative; his previous book The Moral Animal is a good introduction to evolutionary psychology. Read this first if you are non-spiritual) Wisdom Wise and Deep by Shaila Catherine (comprehensive introduction by one of the best Jhana teachers in the US) Manual of Insight by Mahasi Sayadaw Emptiness: A Practical Guide by Guy Armstrong (good introduction to the Buddhist version of reality) Books by Loch Kelly (practical guide to non-dual meditation practices within Buddhism; The Little Book of Being by Diana Winston may be a better introduction) Seeing that Frees by Rob Burbea (really advanced but profound) http://awakeningtoreality.blogspot.com/2007/03/thusnesss-six-stages-of-experience.html (Buddhism > Advaita) Books by Robert Bruce such as Psychic Self-Defence and Energy Work Psychic Witch by Mat Auryn Dream Yoga by Andrew Holecek (amazing/practical book on lucid dreaming -> dream yoga) Autobiography of a Yogi The Practice of Brahmacharya by Swami Sivananda and Soaring Eagle (https://forum.nofap.com/index.php?threads/6-years-clean-rebooting-as-the-best-remedy.135983/) if you haven’t read already Xunzi trans. by Eric Hutton (final evolution of Confucianism) Novels (use translators mentioned): http://gen.lib.rus.ec/fiction/? for foreign literature Musashi by Eiji Yoshikawa (Taiko is decent as well, but this one was a masterpiece) Romance of the Three Kingdoms trans. Moss Roberts The Dream of the Red Chamber trans. David Hawkes (read it in the summer of 2017, profound but not all may see the deeper meaning) The Nine Cloud Dream trans. Heinz Insu Fenkl Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand (Inspirational for Entrepreneurs, however don’t start adopting this book as economic philosophy. It’s just a novel!) The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho (read now if you are experiencing an existential crisis) Dostoevsky’s Crime and Punishment + The Brothers Karamazov (optional reading; prefer Pevear translation) Perry Mason and Sherlock Holmes Series (pleasure reading but not useless) Psychotherapy (never visited a therapist, but found these useful): Getting Past Your Past by Francine Shapiro (by the founder of EMDR, best practical book on trauma and exercises to resolve it) Complex PTSD: From Surviving to Thriving (another immensely practical book on recovering from trauma) Breaking the Cycle by George Collins (best practical workbook on sexual addiction I have read; all should read) Get out of your mind and into your life by Steven Hayes (Was mentioned in the charisma myth booklist; take control of your thoughts and mind by the founder of ACT) Mindful Compassion by Paul Gilbert and Choden (prominent researcher on compassion applied to therapy; part one can be boring, but part two on practical exercises is invaluable) Feeling Book by David Burns (rightfully a classic book on therapy and CBT; read if you are suffering from depression) Healing Development Trauma by Laurence Heller (best book on the impact of childhood/development trauma but meant for therapists, might explain why we use addiction to cope from childhood memories; google ACE study as well) The Boy who was raised as a Dog by Bruce Perry (stories about children experiencing trauma. Increases empathy for yourself and others; you realize how childhood trauma affects how a lot of people think and behave) Whole Again: Healing Your Heart and Rediscovering Your True Self After Toxic Relationships and Emotional Abuse by Jackson MacKenzie (fantastic book on recovering from relationship abuse. Many of us have emotional baggage that fuels coping and addiction loops. Read Healing from Hidden Abuse by Shannon Thomas as well.) Self-Compassion by Kristen Neff (optional reading, but complimentary) For biographies, read those of presidents and important leaders. Also about famous/successful individuals. Read all of Ron Chernow’s books. Abuse the Amazon Search Engine and look through their categories. Reading biographies can fundamentally enhance your worldview so you realize that real-life issues are much more nuanced and gray rather than black and white. Also shows how successful people deal with difficult crises and their perspective on life. Especially for public policy. If a President implements an economic policy that has short-term gains, but long-term loss, he has a greater chance of being re-elected. However, short-term loss in favor of long-term gain is the correct policy. Employ critical-thinking! Avoid cable news even if you need to stay informed. Don’t even have a television in my house. Unnecessary. Just read 2 – 3 reputable news sources for 20 minutes max. Sometimes I even avoid the news since there’s too much negativity. https://www.reddit.com/kundalini/comments/1unyph/a_tantric_perspective_on_the_use_of_sexual_energy/ (tantric meditation technique that actually works; you are supposed to do it for 1 hour. Optional.) https://www.reddit.com/kundalini/comments/2zn8ev/grounding_201_two_effective_quick_methods/ (energetic protection + grounding method after doing the tantric meditation) Avoid learning Mantak Chia’s techniques from a book, since some have suffered side-effects to their energetic/biological body. For NEO, Tibetan buddhists practice meditation for 13 years before attempting it (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karmamudr%C4%81). Not easy. Not sure about women, since SR streak is more important. Don’t pick a partner to fulfill some kind of emotional void, or due to societal programming where women are held to be the ultimate goal. Spiritual Enlightenment is the ultimate goal now, but even enlightened people need money for food and shelter. Youtubers I follow are Graham Stephan, Ryan Serhant, Rupert Spira, and https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUX1V5UNWP1RUkhLewe77ZQ (cured women objectification for me; wholesome content) although mostly I avoid the website. Easy to loose track of time. Avoid smoking, alcohol, recreational drug use (https://www.elitedaily.com/wellness/drugs-alcohol-aura-damage/1743959), casual sex (https://mywakingpath.wordpress.com/tag/aura/; sensitive images but useful), and fast food. Budget your money, and learn how to save as much as possible. Hope everyone reading this post experiences their definition of success and leads a purposeful life. Will end it by stating two quotes that have inspired and guided me: “You yourself have to change first, or nothing will change for you!” ― Hideaki Sorachi “It is not important to be better than someone else, but to be better than you were yesterday.” ― Jigoro Kano (Founder of Judo) Update 1, 2, 3: Added a post summary and the audio as well in the affirmations link Update 4: https://starseedsunited.com/negative-entities-and-psychic-attacks (basic article on entities) Some solutions are posted above. Updated* daily routine: https://www.reddit.com/kundalini/comments/1xyp5k/a_simple_and_universal_white_light_protection/ (basic psychic self-defence) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kt9s5tY1YE (at least once everyday; cures sexual dreams and flushes all entities) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLeubTQv65Q (best shielding subliminal so far; general protection. Listen at least once everyday) Note: Will continuously update this post based on further clarification. Close to 40,000 character word limit. submitted by RisingSun7799 to Semenretention [link] [comments] Welcome to our guide on the legality of binary options trading in various jurisdictions of the world. This website focuses directly on the legal issues facing binary options in each country, and we’ll touch a bit on the history of this trade type as well. Today, binary options are as legal as other markets with the prospect of improved regulations to allow a bigger variety of brokers. Petar Markoski Author. Petar is the finance guru, if you need a good investment this is the guy you go to! Working majority of his days in the finance sector as trader, he has gathered plenty of insight on binary ... Trading binary options is legal in Australia, though the Australian government does caution traders to be wary of high-risk investments. 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0.999458	If a pitch track has been successfully classified, the call type and Mahalanobis distance will be reported below the call. Call types are as follows: Sei whale: 1, 2 and 3 Fin whale: 4 Right whale: 5, 6, 7 and 8 Humpback whale: 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 and 20 Dashed vertical lines indicate the following DMON events: MUTEON: the hydrophone is muted to assess system noise and to provide a time mark in the audio recording MUTEOFF: the hydrophone is unmuted and normal recording has resumed ADDET_OFF: a maximum of 8 KB of pitch track data per hour is transmitted by the glider. The ADDET_OFF message indicates that this limit has been reached. ADDET_ON: transmission of pitch track data has resumed $ADRUN, 0: the glider has reached the surface and will begin data transmission home, so pitch tracking is terminated $ADRUN, 3: the glider has finished data transmission at the surface and is initiating a dive, so pitch tracking has resumed
0.99171	(CNN) — Fabulous food, amazing art, rich language, dramatic and gorgeous landscapes -- we all know what makes Italy so special. Perhaps best of all are the scenic small towns and villages, where it's possible to enjoy all these while surrounded by picturesque coastline, mountains, valleys, rivers or volcanoes. Here are some of the most idyllic villages where you can travel that perfectly sum up the beautiful country, or "Bel Paese." Pietrapertosa Pietrapertosa is popular with extreme sports lovers. Courtesy I Borghi più Belli d'Italia Located between the gigantic crags of the Basilicata region's so-called "Southern Dolomites," Pietrapertosa almost looks like it's being swallowed by the mountains. It takes its name from the ancient Petraperciata, which means "perforated stone," a reference to the huge rock that in whose clefts this pretty village sits. Shards of human-shaped rocks jut out everywhere in Pietrapertosa, which is shaped like an amphitheater. Standing at an altitude of around 1,000 meters, its residents proudly say they live suspended mid-air between the sky and the earth. This backdrop has allowed Pietrapertosa to become a hotspot for extreme sports lovers. The most thrilling activity here is the Angel Flight, which sees visitors zip line from Pietrapertosa's highest peak to that of the nearby village of Castelmezzano, offering an adrenaline-filled glide over sharp pinnacles and hairpin bends. The village is also home to an ancient, crumbling Saracen castle that offers splendid views of the mountains. Stand out local establishments include restaurant Le Rocce, located on top a hill, serves fantastic local dishes and cozy B&B Palazzo del Barone, with fabulous mountain views. Le Rocce, Via Giuseppe Garibaldi, 109, 85010 Pietrapertosa; +39 0971 983260 Il Palazzo del Barone, Piazza Giuseppe Garibaldi, 8, 85010 Pietrapertosa; +39 339 586 9343 Marina Corricella Marina Corricella is flanked by fortress Terra Murata. Courtesy Sergio Aletta Procida's oldest fishing village is easily one of Italy's most beautiful thanks to its patchwork of purple, yellow, pink, blue and green houses. Dating back to the 17th century, Marina Corricella has a simple, laid back vibe that's hard to replicate. Lined with wooden boats and fishing nets, the harbor here is usually buzzing with shouting fishermen and vendors. Fortress Terra Murata, a former prison, serves as the highest point on the island, with views stretching across the Gulf of Naples. As for accommodation,18th century aristocratic palazzo Hotel la Casa sul Mare is a stand out, featuring just 10 designer rooms, while La Corricella restaurant serves signature fish dishes. Hotel la Casa sul Mare, Salita Castello, 13, 80079 Procida; +39 081 896 8799 3. Ricetto di Candelo Ricetto di Candelo -- a tiny medieval village in the region of Piedmont. Courtesy I Borghi più Belli d'Italia Situated in Piedmont, the name of this fortified hamlet literally means "refuge." Locals hid in this medieval village in times of war and it was used to store grapes, wine and grain after peace was declared. Dubbed the "Pompeii of the Middle Ages," the original architecture of this pentagon-shaped village has been incredibly preserved. Surrounded by tall walls, it's made up of around 200 reddish-brown cube-like houses and five main roads, with cobblestone alleys so clean they shine at night. Locanda La Greppia is one of the top restaurants here thanks to its delicious local cuisine, including various pork dishes. And with only three rooms, local B&B Al Ricetto provides an intimate stay for travelers. Locanda La Greppia, Prima rua, Ricetto, 13878 Candelo; +39 333 370 0425 B&B Al Ricetto, Via S. Sebastiano, 35, 13878 Candelo; +39 015 253 8838 Marettimo Marettimo -- the most remote of the three Egadi Islands. Courtesy Silvia Marchetti The wildest and most pristine island of Sicily's Egadi archipelago, Marettimo is a hideaway in every sense. Electric carts and donkeys are the sole means of transportation in this peaceful fishing village overlooked by an abandoned clifftop Saracen fortress. Consisting of a cluster of white-washed dwellings with blue trimmings that sparkle at sunset, its simplicity is hypnotizing. Islanders have been instilled with a primitive fear of the sea gods, which is apparent from the prayers scribbled on walls and doors to keep storms at bay. Made up of cozy studios, Marettimo Residence is the only hotel in town and blends with the natural surroundings perfectly. Another local highlight is seafront restaurant Il Veliero, a hotspot for bleeding sunset dinners. Il Veliero, Corso Umberto, 22, 92027 Licata AG, Italy; +39 0923 923274 Marettimo Residence, Via Telegrafo, 3, 91010 Isola di Marettimo; +39 0923 923202 Chianalea di Scilla This village has been dubbed the "little Venice of Calabria." Courtesy B&B Chianalea Located in Calabria, at the tip of Italy's boot, this fishermen village is built on layers of rocks rising out of the emerald green water. With waterfront homes so close to the sea that waves that wash into courtyards, it's known as the "little Venice of Calabria." Most of the homes here have boats and dinghies parked outside instead of cars, with locals proclaiming their "houses are boats and boats are houses." The tiny village lies on the Strait of Messina, believed to be the mythical location where dog-headed sea monster Scylla attacked the ship of Ulysses in "The Odyssey." At dawn, fishermen sell their catch down at the harbor, alongside Zibibbo wine and premium lemons. B&B Chianalea 54, a restyled fishermen dwelling and restaurant Glauco's, with specialties including sword fish rolls are both local stand outs. B&B Chianalea 54, Via Prof.Giuseppe Zagari, 54, 89058 Scilla; +39 346 359 6711 Scanno Lago di Scanno was created after an enormous landslide fell from Mountain Genzana. Courtesy Cesidio Silla/Regione Abruzzo Located in the wild Abruzzo region of central Italy, Scanno is a rural heaven. Once a lair for bandits and outlaws, this pretty village nestled in the Apennine Mountains features a wonderful mix of Baroque, Romanesque and Gothic architecture. Decorated with portals, masks and angels, its impressive facades, mansions, churches and fountains were originally commissioned by rich shepherd families, who competed against each other to ensure their properties were the most beautiful. The village also boast various humbler stone and wooden dwellings that resemble something from a nativity scene. Scanno overlooks a heart-shaped lake named after it, which some claim possesses magical powers. Set in a 1930s Liberty-style mansion, hotel restaurant Roma serves regional cuisine using local products. Hotel Roma, Viale della Pineta 6, 67038 Scanno; +39 0864 74313 Related content Italian food: 1 great dish from each of Italy's 20 regions Pienza Pienza lies in the province of Siena. Courtesy L' Informaturista Pienza Set in Val D'Orcia, Tuscany's most pristine corner, Pienza has been dubbed the "ideal city of the Renaissance." Renamed and redesigned by Pope Pius II in the late 15th century, its packed with architecture masterpieces like Palazzo Piccolomini, designed by Florentine sculptor and architect Bernardo Rossellino, located in the stunning Piazza Pio II. Positioned on a landscape of green rolling hills, the UNESCO World Heritage site, famously features a series of streets with romantic names like Love Street and Kiss Street. Local restaurant La Buca delle Fate offers typical Tuscan menu items including picci pasta. La Buca delle Fate, Corso il Rossellino, 38, A, 53026 Pienza; +39 0578 748448 Bosa Bosa is divided into two parts by the river Temo. Courtesy Archivio RAS This medieval village, also known as Sa Costa, is divided into two parts by the river Temo. The region's only navigable river lures in kayak lovers, its waters reflecting the multicolored buildings of the ancient district set in the western part of Sardinia. Here simple artisan dwellings are juxtaposed with lavish palazzos of shiny pink magmatic rock. Bosa was once renowned for its leather-making industry and is still filled with historical boutiques, where the art of tannery has been passed down across generations, as well as stores selling coral jewelry and asphodel baskets. Built by the Tuscan Malaspina family in the 12th century, the Castle of Serravalle overlooks the town. The impressive fortress can be fully admired from hotel restaurant Giardini Malaspina, which boasts a terrace and bar Giardini Malaspina, Loc.s'abbadolzeddu, 08013 Bosa; +39 320 031 5896 Calcata Calcata is popular with day trippers. Courtesy Silvia Marchetti Located close to Rome, Calcata is perched on a reddish hilltop rising out of a green canyon. Shaped like a huge mushroom, the hamlet dates back to ancient Italian tribe the "Falisci." A labyrinth of moss-covered cobbled alleys that lead to openings overlooking the precipice, it's been chosen as a lair by various modern artists and hippies. With grotto dwellings adorned with scary masks and statues and alleys featuring squeaky wooden benches and rock altars, Calcata has something of a spooky vibe and is popular with day trippers. Calcata Diffusa offers accommodation in grottoes scattered across the village, while restaurant Il Graal has outdoor dining on the piazza. Il Graal, Via Giuseppe Garibaldi 9, 01030 Calcata; +39 360 788 110 Manarola Manarola -- one of five of the Cinque Terre towns. Tristan MIMET from Pixabay Not only is Manarola the second-smallest hamlet of Liguria's Cinque Terre, it's also the oldest and most romantic. Enclosed by cliffs, the best way to get here is by train or by foot via the panoramic Lovers' Lane connecting to Riomaggiore village. Steep uphill stone paths connect the village's colorful houses and orchards all the way up to a strange pyramid made of white cement that guides sailors at sea. One of Manarola's main streets, Via Belvedere leads to a natural panoramic balcony overlooking the Ligurian Riviera, dotted with olive groves and vineyards. Hotel La Torretta, a 17th century tower, offers amazing sea view, while Trattoria La Scogliera serves delicious traditional pesto dishes. La Torretta, Vico Volto, 20, 19010 Manarola, Riomaggiore; +39 0187 920327 Related content 12 alternative places to visit in Italy when you want to get off the beaten path Marzamemi Marzamemi is home to an ancient "tonnara," or tuna plant. Courtesy Sebastiano Campisi/Proloco Marzamemi Situated near Noto in southeastern Sicily, Marzamemi is a tiny village of Arab origin. Once a vibrant fish industry hub, its yellowish-grey Arab-style stone buildings are one of many nods to its history. The village famously boasts an ancient "tonnara" or tuna plant as well as a wide piazza that's been restyled into ceramic boutiques, bars and cozy apartments. Tainted with black spots, the facades of the buildings make for an interesting sight. The town, which served as the filming location for Gabriele Salvatores' 1993 movie "South," hosts the Blue Fish Festival each June. Visitors B&B MaNanna, an old family dwelling run by the daughter of the last head tuna fishermen, is one of its top rated accommodation options and restaurant picks include Taverna La Cialoma. B&B MaNanna, Via Salvatore Giardina, 12, 96018 Marzamemi; +39 349 733 6855 Sperlonga Sperlonga -- a charming seaside destination. Courtesy Riccardo de Simone Built atop a cliff about halfway between Rome and Naples, Sperlonga's history is steeped in Greek legend. The shiny white limestone of this village is said to have once guided Odysseus's ship like a lighthouse. Sperlonga also sits atop an underground maze of sea grottoes, where a beautiful "nymph" of the same name apparently lived. Legend has it that god Jupiter, who had fallen madly in love with Sperlonga, turned himself into a meteorite in order to be with her, landing between her legs on the beach. Their night of passion is said to brought about the high crags the village was later built on to escape Saracen incursions. Today Sperlonga largely consists of terraced layers of houses and winding staircases that descend to the beach, where locals sunbathe close to ancient Roman pillars and and the ruins of Emperor Tiberius' lavish grotto villa, a must see site. Located close to the village's Blue Flag beaches is the splendid Virgilio Grand Hotel, which is also a chic seafood restaurant. Virgilio Grand Hotel, Via Giuseppe Romita, 262, 04029 Sperlonga; +39 0771 557600 Castelrotto Castelrotto is favored by winter sports enthusiasts. Courtesy Alpe di Siusi Marketing Situated in northern Italy's South Tyrol, Castelrotto sits in a lush valley surrounded by Alpine peaks and premium vineyards, near the Austrian border. Once part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the village is a blend of northern and Mediterranean cultures. The locals speak in a weird German-sounding dialect and eat apple Strüdel and Canederli (knödel) dumplings. Strolling through the town feels like walking through an open-air art exhibition thanks to the works of art on display. The mountain dwellings, a mix of Baroque and Liberty-style, are covered in colorful wall paintings by renowned 19th century artists. Meanwhile bucolic scenes adorn bakeries, stables, barns and hotels, including the historic Hotel Wolf and tavern Zum Turm. Hotel zum Wolf, Via Oswald Von Wolkenstein, 5, 39040 Castelrotto; +39 0471 706332 Hotel Zum Turm, Viale Kofel, 8, 39040 Castelrotto; +39 0471 706349 Cornello dei Tasso There are no roads in Cornello dei Tasso. Courtesy Museo dei Tasso Time stands still in this fairytale medieval hamlet near Bergamo, Lombardy. The only way to reach Cornello dei Tasso is via a 30-minute walk along a crooked path. There are no roads here, only cobbled alleys and narrow arches, and the houses have thatched roofs. Despite its remoteness, Cornello dei Tasso was actually the birth place of the founders of the first European postal service back in the 13th century. The village also boasts a museum dedicated to the postal pioneers, Bernardo Tasso and his son Torquato Tasso, author of the Renaissance epic poem "Jerusalem Delivered." The local museum also organizes guided tours around the hamlet. Trattoria Camozzi is the only tavern around, serving game, hare and venison and La Tana del Tasso is a no-frills B&B. Trattoria Camozzi, Via G. Camozzi, 73, 24121 Bergamo BG, Italy; +39 035 248808 Related content 7 of Europe's most beautiful villages Carloforte This picturesque village is positioned approximately seven kilometers off the southwestern coast of Sardinia. Courtesy Archivio RAS Positioned on the isle of San Pietro in Sardinia, Carloforte was founded by the families of coral fishers from a Ligurian town of Genoa in the 18th century. As a result, the picturesque village features the type of bright, Genoese-style architecture and "carruggi" alleys (wide enough for small carts) one would expect to find in Liguria. Carloforte is the only place in the entire Mediterranean where the "mattanza," a hunt in which hundreds of rare bluefin tuna are trapped in nets and massacred, is still practiced. For locals, this brutal and highly controversial custom is a sacred ritual. It takes place each year during the Girotonno, which also showcases tuna gourmet delicacies and offers guided tours inside the tuna factory. Restaurant picks in the area include low key seafood dining spot Luigi Pomata and hotel Nichotel, which boasts cozy suites overlooking the harbor. Nichotel, Via Garibaldi, 7, 09014 Carloforte; +39 0781 855674 Civita di Bagnoregio Civita di Bagnoregio has a population of just 12. Alexandra Voicu from Pixabay Founded by the Etruscans more than 2,500 years ago, Civita di Bagnoregio sits precariously atop a plateau overlooking the Tiber river valley in Latium. Dubbed the "Dying City" due to constant soil erosion and a dwindling population, the remote village looks like it could crumble into the deep chasm at any minute. Abandoned by most of its inhabitants years ago, only a dozen residents live her now, as well as many cats. The footbridge was bombed during World War II and just one single metal catwalk connects the village to the main road today. Visitors can check in to Corte della Maestà, a chic boutique hotel, while restaurant Alma Civita serves up good Italian and Mediterranean food inside a grotto. Corte della Maestà,Vicolo Della Maestà, 01022 Civita; +39 335 879 3077 Alma Civita, Via della Provvidenza, 01022 Civita; +39 0761 792415 Related content Where to see Europe's best hilltop towns Ginostra Ginostra sits within a natural amphitheater. Courtesy Silvia Marchetti Only accessible by foot, or boat, the isolated hamlet of Ginostra lies on a secluded flank of the volcanic isle of Stromboli, part of Sicily's Aeolian archipelago. The tiny village is made up of a handful of white and pastel-colored huts covered in prickly pears and bright red bougainvilleas that clash with its jet black rocks. According to legend, the village was built by a group of stranded sailors who took refuge here during a storm and were so struck by the beauty of the place that they never left. Today the population here is estimated at around 40. Visitors enter through a steep path of stone steps winding up from a tiny docking bay, wide enough for just two boats. Serving "volcanic dishes," restaurant L'Incontro is a village along with charming B&B Luna Rossa. L'Incontro, Via Sopra Pertuso, 98050 Ginostra; +39 090 981 2305 Luna Rossa, Via Piano, 3, 98050 Ginostra; +39 338 141 4620 Cetona Medieval hilltop town Cetona lies in Tuscany's Siena. Courtesy Silvia Marchetti Enticed by the slower pace of life and fresh air, Cetona is where the royals and fashion designers come to relax. Set in southern Tuscany and shaped like a snail, the ancient hilltop town is incredibly well kept. Starting at the magnificent Piazza Garibaldi, visitors can head up a narrow, paved road that circles round the tile roof houses and pretty churches, all the way to a panoramic castle tower complete with secret, exotic gardens. The village's surrounding countryside is known for its high-quality extra virgin olive oil. Historic family-run hotel restaurant Il Tiglio di Piazza is a great accommodation option. Il Tiglio di Piazza, Piazza Garibaldi, Cetona; +39 0578 23707 Malcesine Malcesine has Monte Baldo as its backdrop. Pixabay/Creative Commons Forget the holiday crowds. This corner of Veneto is one of Lake Garda's best kept secrets. Surrounded by olive groves and the gigantic Mount Baldo, Malcesine sits at the feet of a historic castle, Castello Scaligero. Nestled between the lake and the mountains, silence rules in this charming village, with its steep cobbled streets lined with artisan shops. Sunbathers relax on its pebble beaches, whiling away the hours as fishermen sell their catch nearby. Local restaurant La Vecchia Malcesine offers innovative twists on traditional recipes and B&B Casa Mosole is based in an interesting building that was once a cured meats shop. Vecchia Malcesine, Via Pisort, 6, 37018 Malcesine; +39 045 740 0469 Casa Mosole, Via Bottura, 3, 37018 Malcesine; +39 348 531 0790 Ventotene Ventotene -- a former prison island. Courtesy Silvia Marchetti This two-kilometer-long island close to Rome was once a prison, with lustful Roman women and anti-fascists among its detainees over the years. Bright orange and pink dwellings, former prisoner cells, mingle with ancient cisterns and fisheries in its small village. The little harbor is lined with fishermen grottoes that have been turned into lounge bars, while the main Piazza Castello features an old Bourbon fortress tower. The ruins of Julia's Villa, named after the daughter of Emperor Augustus, exiled here by her father on charges of adultery, are still visible. Italian politician Altiero Spinelli, who became one of the European Union's founding fathers co-wrote the "Ventotene Manifesto" here in the village. Positioned within Piazza Castello, hotel restaurant Mezzatorre has a dining terrace overlooking the main Cala Nave beach. Hotel Mezzatorre, Piazza Castello, 5/6, 04020 Ventotene; +39 0771 85294 A year of the world'sBest BeachesThere's a perfect beach for every week of the year. 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0.931757	in Closings, COVID-19, Landlord Tenant Law, Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Real Estate Market, Real Estate Marketing, Realtors Local Real Estate Agents Recount The Year of the Pandemic, and Offer Some Hope (and Caution) for 2021 The year 2020 started out like most strong real estate years in recent Massachusetts history — very high buyer demand combined with low seller inventory, along with historically low interest rates, equated to a bustling busy real estate market. January and February were solid months even for winter. As we entered late February, however, we stared to hear about a concerning new virus originating from Wuhan, China, spreading quickly to Europe. They called it “Coronavirus” or “Covid-19,” names that would later be part of our permanent lexicon. Flashback to March, and the virus had quickly reached the United States. The country soon shut down. Offices and schools closed. Governors across the country issued “stay at home” and “social distancing” orders. Eviction and foreclosure moratoriums were enacted, including the strictest one here in the Bay State. Real estate attorneys here in Massachusetts sprung into action to help pass the Remote Notarization Act, which helped keep closings moving forward. And despite the pandemic, the real estate industry reacted and adapted quickly, with realtors and attorneys relying on virtual tours, Covid compliant open houses, lots of Zoom calls, and “drive-through” closings. The year is now almost over. From speaking to all my real estate friends, agents, lawyers and lenders, the general consensus is that the Massachusetts real industry averted major disaster. Indeed, some agents reported a record year despite all the challenges. But I wanted to hear directly from those on the front lines. So naturally, I went to Facebook! I asked all my real estate friends several questions about how 2020 went. I told them to give me three words to describe 2020. (I didn’t censor!). How was your local market during Covid? How did you handle all the changes brought on by Covid? What are your predictions for the real estate market in 2021? Do you see any Covid related changes to business remaining permanent going forward? Here is what they said: Craig Lake (Compass Boston) Shockingly 2020 was my best year yet. I didn’t experience the mass exodus to the burbs, but did see some upsizing within Boston. The Spring was still HOT, HOT, HOT! While the Fall was definitely more mellow. Rental market definitely went majorly downhill – with major bargains to be had around the city and a ton of inventory sitting empty. I think the condo market in Boston will bounce back this Spring with vaccines on the way. The rental market will likely be a little slower to recover, but hopefully by the Fall. There have been some covid deals in the City but I don’t think that will last long as work will resume after the vaccines are widespread. Most of all – I cannot wait to not have to wear masks on showings anymore and have normal Open Houses again. Katherine Waters-Clark (Compass Arlington). Transformational, Tribe-forming, Tragic, True Grit. My market was on fire, Covid did not slow it down and I was out there the entire time. I was scared but had to lead my clients. Honestly had to put my Mom hat on and say “listen you guys, my job is to keep you safe.” I had to turn on a dime daily, learning new ways of marketing, listing, open houses, staging remotely, safely working with buyers. Talking through a mask, what is that? It was an exhausting, rocky road shit show but ultimately I have many overjoyed (really) clients who bought and/or sold or both! My company, Compass, got me through it with daily innovations, mindset, weekly office meetings, so much sharing amoung agents, so much generosity, we really really were all in this collectively together. It was a very special time, in that way. Predictions for 2021: My roster for 2021 is fuller than it’s ever been in 15 years. It’s going to be fire. Buckle up. Moving forward, there WILL be more virtual meetings, 3d tours will be here to stay, paperless transactions here to stay, mobile offices here to stay. It will be a while until we can all gather at a ball game, an event, a concert. But once we can, we will all be having hugfests and going crazy, it will be so great to be together again! Charlene Frary (Realty Executives Boston West) My three words, wearing my real estate hat, to describe local 2020 real estate are “surprisingly not awful.” In March and April I really thought the pandemic might be the thing that finally slowed the “feeding frenzy” and in fact the market gained momentum with 10% value appreciation and less inventory. And because of this, and the fact that values have been rising solidly for years, I’m predicting a similar volume 2021 with 5% minimum appreciation. I think most homeowners in financial trouble will be able to sell and pay off debt thanks to recent years of value increases – not a pretty picture, and very sad and unfair… but less ugly than foreclosure for those homeowners and less impactful than a foreclosure wave. That’s here -may be totally different in other parts of the country. Debbie Booras (Keller Williams Northwest) Whoa…wow…wonderful. 2021 late spring early summer will shift to a buyers market as the inventory withheld will saturate the market quickly. Sellers will still expect a premium and the shift will begin. Nick Aalerud (Multi-family development and investment) Learned: How to lead in crisis. Making tough decisions, slashing expenses. Created a “bloodline” reporting system so we knew exactly how much cash we could operate with rolling 13 weeks out. Modified our buybox. Focused more on TEAM and PURPOSE than on making up for lost deals. Liquidated nearly 100% of rental portfolio to prepare for what is coming 2021: Expect a commercial capital collapse at the regional and perhaps state level, as 10 yr loans come due and there’s no occupancy or cash flow to support refis. Commercial (office, hospitality, retail, restaurant) will begin to feel the pain (even beyond what they are feeling now) in Q3, mostly Q4. Residential: After forbearances are over, based on current unemployment and economic data, people won’t be able to afford their mortgages, despite the fact of “COVID MODS” being offered. They’ll be forced to sell. No real change in 2021 on house values except that as these waves hit the market, the demand will finally start to be absorbed. 2022 is another story… As the third, 4th and 5th wave start to hit, I’m gambling that we are back in short sale territory. And we have amped up our short sale business to make sure we are ready, for the commercial defaults, and then the overwhelming residential ones we see coming… Baris Berk (United Brokers) Currently, there is lack of inventory and even after they lift the moratorium it will take some time and process for foreclosures to hit and it might not even hit by the end of next year or beginning of 2022 so due to some pent up demand for sellers as well, 2021 I do not see any market crash and in contrary we might even see 5% increase in the values.I think 2022 will be more murky waters Heidi Zizza (mdm Realty Framingham) Oh my not sure 3 words will cut it! Stressful, Relaxing, Crazy! It went in phases. I think 2021 will be just as busy but I do think some of the changes especially to brick and mortar will stay! I miss getting together but zoom has made it so you can be together anywhere. Jonathan White (Managing Broker Vylla) I think the biggest change that we’ll see is when the eviction/foreclosure moratorium is finally lifted. That will very likely result in the highest level of foreclosures that we’ve seen in at least five years. We’ll have to see if that is the catalyst to finally shift this crazy market. Thank you to all the agents who participated in this article! May all of you have a very happy, healthy and prosperous 2021! { 1 comment } Jim Brooks Act (Just Cause Eviction) Fails To Pass Legislative Session by Rich Vetstein on May 3, 2018 in Housing Court, Landlord Tenant Law, Leasing, Massachusetts Property Values, Rental Housing Bill Sent to Study Committee, Effectively Killing It After intense lobbying on both sides by property owner groups and tenant rights activities, lawmakers sent the Jim Brooks Community Stabilization Act to study effectively killing it for this legislative session. The Act, a Home Rule Petition requiring full State House approval, would require that a landlord or foreclosing owner provide a city-approved “notice of basic rights” and a list of tenant assistance organizations simultaneously with the issuance of a notice to quit/termination or notice of lease renewal/expiration. It also provided that tenants of foreclosed properties could only be evicted for certain “just cause” reasons. The Boston City Council had originally approved the measure in November 2017, but state lawmakers had to approve it as well. Property owner groups were vehemently opposed to the measure, asserting that it was actually a return to Rent Control. The reactions by proponents and opponents of the bill were naturally mixed on social media. Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley, a supporter of the measure, said that the bill “was not supported by the Judiciary Committee…but where it stands now is not promising.” The bill was vehemently opposed by property owner groups, such as Masslandlords.com and the Small Property Owners Association, which mounted a strong coordinated campaign to lobby legislators. { 2 comments } Realtors Say: Warm Winter To Usher In Hot Spring Real Estate Market by Rich Vetstein on March 10, 2016 in Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Purchase and Sale Agreements, Real Estate Market Or Will Low Inventory Bring Rain Showers? \| The Spring Market 2016 Expert Panel Report Wow, what a difference a year makes! Last year we had one of the snowiest winters on record and a foot of snow on the ground. This year, we have 70 degree record temps with the Charles Esplanade filled with runners. The winter weather always affects the spring real estate market, and last year the market got started unusually late. So will this year’s warm winter usher in a hot real estate market? Or will the pesky low inventory rain on our parade? To answer these questions, I’ve brought in a panel of top Realtors who will give you the report from the trenches, from the City to the ‘burbs. So without further ado, let’s hear from the experts. The Sudbury & Wayland Real Estate markets are easing into the always anticipated “Spring market.” Like a slow motion game of Dominos, many soon-to-be sellers are waiting for a house they would potentially buy to come on the market before they commit to putting their own homes on. With that, inventory has been low, but is increasing at a steady pace now that it is March and Mother Nature doesn’t seem as eager to make a point as she did last winter. Buyers are actively looking and although not every Open House attendee is a serious buyer, the high numbers of attendees are typically a good indicator of an active market. 2016 is starting to form as a healthy Real Estate market. — Gabrielle Daniels Henken and Carole Daniels — Coldwell Banker, Sudbury. www.LiveInSudburyMA.com In Cambridge and Somerville, we’re still dealing with the inventory shortage — I don’t think it would be hyperbole to call it a crisis — that we’ve had for the last several years. And although the mild weather has brought buyers out in full force already this year, the listings are just beginning to trickle on, so we’re seeing 9, 10, 20 parties competing for the same home. Hopefully it will be a bit less brutal as we get further into March, but for the foreseeable future, demand will continue to outpace supply here. Lara Gordon–Gibson Sotheby’s Cambridge. www.cambridgeville.com Dear Sellers, please don’t wait until spring to list your house at the SAME time as everyone else! Inventory is historically low so list now while you can be a real stand out in the market. Chances are you will bear a higher price as well! The Metrowest market is a popular market that’s constantly strong and growing. Due to the fact that we have 3 major highways that touch Metrowest, it is a popular spot for commuters to Boston and Worcester alike. Metrowest real estate is also a great investment! Heidi Zizza, Broker/Owner, mdm Realty, Framingham, MA High demand, low inventory and continued low rates create a healthy and fiesty market in MetroWes t! Investors still have great opportunities with multi-family properties and first time buyers who didn’t take a break this winter were able to achieve their housing goals without busting their budgets. Glad to report that TRID was just a small bump in the road and had far less direct impact on the financing process than expected. Ali Corton, Real Estate Executives Boston West www.liveinframinghamma.com At the risk of sounding like a broken record, in Winchester, Arlington, Stoneham, Melrose, and the surrounding towns, quality inventory is scarce, and when it hits the market it’s scooped up within days. Buyers must be crystal clear about what they want, and then develop the stamina of a marathoner. They must be willing to brave packed open houses, make rapid decisions about writing offers, endure having 1,2,3,4 great offers rejected before securing a property. Sellers with quality listings are being presented with 10,12,20 offers, all over asking, all waiving contingencies, all with heartfelt letters and photos from buyers who are pulling out all the stops to get a house. As agents in today’s market one of our most important roles is to support our clients, both buyers and sellers, to remain calm and focused during the frenzy of the market. Katherine Waters-Clark, Re/Max-Winchester-Arlington I work primarily with buyers and in towns from Bolton, Westford to Shrewsbury and even as far as Gardner and Ashburnham, when a house comes on the market and is in good condition it is snapped up quickly with multiple offers. I have had clients submit written letters with their offers to try and help sway a seller to choose them. The rates are still low and the lack of inventory on the market is making a rather difficult market to guide buyers. First time home buyers are overwhelemed with the speed things have to be done to get their offer picked. Sellers are in a good place when it comes to selling a home in this Spring Market. I just did an Open House in Metheun yesterday, I had 16 families come through and today our seller has 3 offers to choose from, this is going to be a great Spring Market. Sherry Stone-Graham,www.baystate-homes.com The condo market in Metrowest is starving for inventory. I received 8 offers on one unit on Spyglass Hill in Ashland and a couple on a garden style unit. My open houses on Spyglass Hill have had over 25 guests. We desperately need inventory. So many buyers with so few properties is allowing sellers to possibly get more money. It’s a fantastic time to sell. Annie Silverman, Realty Executives Boston West. I service Franklin and the surrounding area and am also licensed in RI. Right now the inventory is still low so sellers are really getting the activity they desire when priced correctly. My most recent listing had 23 sets of people through and we received 5 offers and most were over asking. Buyers are also fortunate as there was also just a dip in the financing rates. Franklin and most surrounding towns are also eligible for 0% down financing so the time is now to make the most of the Spring Market! Amber Cadaorette, Keller Williams Realty Franklin / Wrentham.ambersoldmyhouse.com Feel free to offer your comments here or on Facebook! And good luck with your listings or buyers! { 0 comments } Foreclosure Title Clearance Bill Signed Into Law by Rich Vetstein on December 1, 2015 in Deeds, Foreclosure, Land Court, Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Mortgage Crisis, Mortgages, Title Defects, Title Insurance New Law Will Resolve Thousands of Foreclosure Title Defects In Wake of U.S. Bank v. Ibanez Ruling After a five year legislative struggle (in which I testified before the Joint Judiciary Committee), I’m very pleased to report that Governor Baker has signed into law the Act Clearing Title To Foreclosed Properties (Senate Bill 2015), embedded below. The bill will resolve potentially thousands of land titles which were rendered defective and un-transferable after the SJC’s landmark ruling in U.S. Bank v. Ibanez. The Ibanez ruling invalidated thousands of foreclosures across the Commonwealth due to lenders’ paperwork errors. The problem addressed by the legislation is that scores of innocent buyers purchased these foreclosed properties, fixing them up, renting them out, etc., but they were unaware of the title defects — only to discover them once they went to refinance and sell. Title insurance companies have been bogged down trying to solve these defects, and in the meantime, many of these innocent folks are left with homes which cannot be sold or refinanced. The same bill passed the Legislature last year, but former Gov. Patrick, bowing to housing activists, vetoed it with a poison pill. After several amendments addressing housing activists’ concerns, a new bill was again passed, and just signed into law by Gov. Baker on November 25, 2015. The bill, which is effective on Dec. 31, gives foreclosed owners a three (3) year statute of limitations to file a challenge to a foreclosure, after which the foreclosure is deemed to have been conducted legally. For foreclosures which have already been concluded, the new law has a one year waiting period, so that a defective foreclosure would be considered non-defective on Dec. 31, 2016. The bill does retain a homeowner’s right to seek compensatory and punitive damages for a wrongful foreclosure, provided it is within the statute of limitations. The bill also requires the Attorney General’s Office to spearhead more robust foreclosure prevention solutions with the HomeCorps Program and housing activists groups. The passage of the bill is fantastic news for both owners and potential buyers/investors of foreclosure properties. There is a shadow inventory of defective title properties which will be able to go on the market. The bill was sponsored by Millbury Democrat Michael Moore whose office (especially Julie DelSobral) worked tirelessly for the passage of the Act. MA Act Clearing Title to Foreclosed Properties by Richard Vetstein { 4 comments } Boston Tenant Activists Pushing “Just Cause” (Rent Control) Eviction Bill by Rich Vetstein on November 29, 2015 in Landlord Tenant Law, Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Rental Housing, Senior Housing Update: Hearing On Proposal Scheduled for March 14, 2016 at 4PM at Boston City Council Chamber Room Rent Control Thinly Disguised As “Just Cause” Eviction Proposal Citing skyrocketing rents and lack of affordable housing, several activist pro-tenant groups in the City of Boston, with the assistance of the Harvard Legal Aid Bureau, have submitted a home-rule petition to the Boston City Council to create a wide-ranging “just cause” eviction protection for all Boston tenants. Harking back to the days of rent control, the petition would prohibit a landlord from evicting any tenant except for certain “just cause” grounds. These grounds and their related procedural impediments to eviction are shockingly socialist in nature, and in practice would make it nearly impossible (or cost prohibitive) to evict tenants, raise rents and sell occupied rental property in the City of Boston. Rental property owner groups are vigorously opposed to this proposal. “Just Cause” Grounds for Eviction The petition provides that landlords may only evict tenants for eight (8) specified reasons. The most troubling situations are outlined below. Non-payment of rent. A tenant’s failure to pay rent must be “habitual” (which is left undefined) and “without legal justification.” Ordinarily, if a tenant fails to pay rent even once, the landlord may terminate the tenancy and evict. Under the just cause standards, the standard is significantly higher. What exactly is “habitual”? Two late payments, three, four? No one knows, but the petition puts the burden of proof on the landlord. Damage by tenant. In order to evict, the tenant must have “willfully caused substantial damage to the premises beyond normal wear and tear and, after written notice, has refused to cease damaging the premises, or has refused to either make satisfactory correction or to pay the reasonable costs of repairing such damage over a reasonable period of time.” This would make it much more difficult to evict based on damage caused by a tenant. Disorderly conduct. The tenant has continued, following written notice to cease to be so disorderly as to destroy the peace and quiet of other tenants at the property. Illegal activity. The tenant has used the rental unit or the common areas of the premises for an illegal purpose including the manufacture, sale, or use of illegal drugs. Failure to provide access. The tenant has, after written notice to cease, continued to deny landlord access to the unit as required by state law. Rent Increases and No Fault Evictions The most fundamental impact of the just cause eviction petition is how it attempts to severely curtail landlords’ legal right to raise rents and file no-fault evictions. Make no mistake about it, the underlying premise of the petition is rent control – to keep rents (even under market) from increasing and stabilizing “affordable housing.” Resurrecting the old Boston Rent Control Board, landlords are required to participate in a City-approved mediation session with that agency before raising rents or even declining to renew an expired lease. The board is then required to notify all tenant advocacy groups in Boston of the situation. These groups are invited into every eviction or rent increase process. It will be one landlord against many tenants and advocates. There is no stated limit as to how long the mediation process can last, and after which a landlord still must go to Housing Court which can take anywhere from 6-12 months to complete a no-fault eviction under current law. A landlord’s failure to follow these requirements will result in the immediately dismissal of their eviction case and can also subject them to a $1000 fine by the City. Moreover, in true socialist form, there are also substantial roadblocks to evicting tenants even where the unit will be used for the owner’s own personal residence. Owners are banned from evicting tenants who are 60 years old, disabled or have children in the school system and have lived in the premises for 5 or more years. (Landlords can only end tenancies after the school year is over.) Seeking to turn private properties into government subsidized elderly and disabled housing, the petition thereby creates lifetime tenancies for these classes of renters. This will greatly discourage investment and capital improvements for these properties many of which are double and triple deckers in struggling neighborhoods. Rent Control Does Not Work As counsel for landlords across Greater Boston and having testified at the State House in support of various landlord tenant legal reforms, I am strongly opposed to this proposal. This petition is the fourth attempt by Boston tenant advocates to bring back rent control, all of which have failed after voters rejected rent control state-wide in the mid-1990’s. The idea of rent control has been debunked as a failed policy by countless economists, and actually makes affordable housing stock shrink. A restrictive price ceiling reduces the supply of properties on the market. When prices are capped, people have less incentive to fix up and rent out their property, or to build new projects. Slower supply growth actually exacerbates the price crunch. Those landlords who do rent out their properties might not bother to maintain it, since both supply and turnover in the market are limited by rent caps; landlords have little incentive to compete to attract willing tenants. Landlords may also become choosier, and tenants may stay in properties longer than makes sense. The problem of skyrocketing rents in Boston and affordable housing is complex and certainly worthy of out-of-the-box thinking. As an old city with little if any developable land left, Boston has always dealt with a supply vs. demand problem. Boston developers have long been required to pay into linkage funds designed to promote affordable housing. Mayor Walsh recently announced a plan to build 53,000 new housing units by 2030. The city’s colleges can also do a better job of creating new student housing. But even with all of this centralized planning, the influx of people to the city, drawn by jobs and Boston’s quality of life, have made this problem a very tricky one to solve. However, rent control disguised as a just cause eviction proposal is not the answer. It’s not fair to make small property owners to bear the burden of creating affordable housing across the city. That’s just flat out Un-American. If we want more affordable housing, create economic incentives to build more, and encourage the City to buy their own properties and create housing. Rent control has never been a successful solution. If and when the Just Cause Eviction proposal rears its ugly head in the Boston City Council again, email your local city councilor and the Mayor. A copy of the Just Cause Home Rule Petition can be found below. Boston Just Cause Ordinance Draft Sept 2015 { 4 comments } Cohasset Wind Turbine Project Can Move Forward, Appeals Court Rules by Rich Vetstein on June 29, 2014 in Environmental Law, Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Safety, Senior Housing, Technology, Zoning Controversial Wind Turbine Project Approved, Over Neighbors’ Opposition, Appeals Court Rules Plans for a controversial wind turbine on top of Turkey Hill in swanky coastal Cohasset could soon move forward after the Massachusetts Appeals Court upheld a land court ruling that the town’s planning board acted appropriately when it approved the project. The court dismissed opposition arguments by neighbors and a nearby skilled-nursing home who challenged the project’s legality. The wind turbine is proposed to be sited at the apex of 410-foot-tall Turkey Hill in the northwest corner of Cohasset, in the 314-acre Whitney Thayer Woods, and would be within 1,000 feet of the Golden Living skilled-nursing home and homes on the Hingham side of the border. The nursing home and neighbors complained that the turbine would emit excessive “shadow flicker,” noise and also risk various public safety issues. In 2011, the Cohasset Planning Board held hearings on the wind turbine plans, and issued a special permit with numerous conditions for which the operator must comply. The abutters focused on the “flickering shadows” that the 150-foot blades would cast on nearby properties. Land Court judge Gordon Piper in 2012 upheld the board’s approval, determining that the permit’s special conditions adequately address safety concerns and follow zoning bylaws. For example, the permit requires that the organization monitor flickering and make sure that it doesn’t exceed 30 minutes per day or 300 hours per year. The Appeals Court quickly shot down all of the neighbor’s concerns, holding that it would not second-guess the judgment of local officials who granted the permit. According to the Patriot Ledger, Jim Younger, the director of structural resources and technology at the Trustees of Reservations said that the group is “very pleased” with the court’s ruling and grateful for the widespread support for the project. “At this time, we are still very interested in moving forward with the project and will be reassessing our options following the lengthy delays to the project. We will keep the community informed as we complete this review.” Wind turbine projects are becoming increasingly more accepted by towns to boost both power and revenue so they are less reliant upon the “grid.” This ruling shows how difficult it is for abutters and neighbors to challenge a wind project once the town planning board has issued a permit. { 0 comments } The State of the Massachusetts Real Estate Market: Winter 2013 and Into 2014 Spring Market by Rich Vetstein on November 5, 2013 in Massachusetts Property Values, Real Estate Marketing, Realtors We had a great turnout today for our Massachusetts Real Estate Market Report, again presented and moderated by veteran real estate reporter Scott Van Voorhis of Banker & Tradesman and Boston.com. Scott writes for the well-known Boston.com Real Estate Now Blog which is an invaluable resource. For this installment, we added a little twist, holding a panel discussion and interactive Q&A with Ali Corton of Real Estate Executives Boston West, Chuck Silverston of Prudential Unlimited in Brookline and Dee Reddington of Bank of Canton. Ali was representing the ‘burbs. Chuck was representing the urban, Boston-Brookline market, and Dee was giving the lender perspective. We were live tweeting the event at Twitter #marealestate where you can check out the live stream. Some take-aways from the presentation and discussion were as follows: As reported just about everywhere, the Massachusetts real estate market remains very strong Year over year, 16% increase in both sales volume and sales prices The government shutdown has had no demonstrative effect on the market, nor on the lending environment Lack of buildable land, desirability of the Greater Boston market (as always) has resulted in high demand, low inventory environment. Inventory is down 30% over 2012 (which was down over 2011), putting upward pressure on prices and demand. Bidding wars common for well-priced, good quality homes in desirable communities. This is creating a frenzied dis-equilibirum in certain markets which isn’t necessarily healthy. The low inventory is the “new normal.” Get used to it. Interest rates are forecast to dip down a bit heading into spring market 2014, with eventual rise through the remainder of 2014 and 2015. Overall, the interest rate environment remains very favorable to buyers and the market as a whole. First time home buyers must be open to fixer-uppers and not updated homes. Otherwise, they will be in very tough competition for move-in condition homes in the good towns. Lenders are doing loans for low credit (FICO 620 range) borrowers. ARMs making comeback. Chuck pointed out the “Patriot Effect” for open houses on Sundays. People are staying home to watch the game. Advises trying open houses on Saturdays. Ali Corton says that Metrowest sellers are routinely getting asking price or very close to that right now, and will continue to do so while inventory remains low We are interested in hearing your thoughts on today’s market. Feel free to post your comments below! { 2 comments } Flood Insurance Super-Storm To Hit Oct. 1, Premiums To Surge by Rich Vetstein on September 13, 2013 in Flood Insurance, Insurance, Massachusetts Property Values New Flood Insurance Rates and Map Changes To Drown Homeowners With Premium Surge, Subsidies To End I was recently working on a sale transaction in Wareham which went under agreement with no issues. As is common in that coastal area, the property is in Flood Zone with a subsidized flood insurance annual premium of around $3,000 which the buyer was willing to live with. However, during the underwriting process, the lender advised that under new federal flood insurance map and rate changes, the property was not only in a higher flood risk elevation zone, but would also lose its subsidy upon a sale, with a new premium running a whopping $55,000 — a 1700% increase! Needless to say, the sale sank to the bottom of Buzzards Bay, and the current owner is left with a significantly devalued property. The culprit for this storm surge is the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Act, which was passed after Hurricane Katrina. Under the new law, many homeowners will grapple with a double-whammy of costs — first, because their homes are no longer above base flood elevation, and second, the Act will eliminate the grandfathering of properties that were allowed to use old flood-risk data, and will end subsidies for certain types of properties. According to most projections, flood insurance premiums have the potential to increase by 25% per year for many, and for some, exponentially — like my Wareham client. Furthermore, many additional homes have been placed in the high-risk flood zone for the first time, and if the owners have mortgages, they will be required to buy flood insurance. According to the Boston Globe, the changes will have widespread impact along coastal communities. For example, in Marshfield, roughly 1,500 homes are located in the expanded flood zone, and in Scituate, about 500, according to local officials. Coastal towns have been scrambling over the last several months to assist affected homeowners and petition Congress and FEMA to help, mostly to no avail. Property owners have the right to appeal their inclusion in the flood zone, but they have barely more than six weeks left to do so. The deadline is Oct. 17 throughout the county. For an appeal to be successful, the owner would have to prove, with professional documentation, that the elevation is different from what the maps indicate. That’s a high burden and very costly to boot. This situation has real potential to drown listings and sales along the affected coastal areas. I’ll be monitoring this looming storm in the weeks ahead. Stay dry! { 3 comments } Strategies to Succeed In A Seller’s Real Estate Market: A Roundtable Discussion by Rich Vetstein on March 11, 2013 in Closings, Condominium Law, Fannie Mae, Home Inspections, Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Offer To Purchase, Real Estate Marketing Put Your Best Offer Forward & Get Pre-Approved Beforehand, Advise Local Experts Well, it’s official now. With buyers back in droves, an abnormally low inventory of good properties, and bidding wars popping up all over the place, the Greater Boston real estate market has now made full circle into a seller’s market. As the Boston Globe recently wrote, the market is “desperately seeking sellers.” For prospective buyers in a seller’s market, the strategies to succeed and find your dream home are very different from just a year or two ago. To help you navigate these unfamiliar waters, I’ve asked Cambridge-Somerville Realtor, Lara Gordon of Coldwell Banker, and Brian Cavanaugh, Senior Mortgage Banker at RMS Mortgage, to join me in this “round-table” discussion about how buyers can succeed in a seller’s market. Lara and Brian were both featured in this month’s Boston Magazine Best Places to Live 2013. Q: Laura, what are you seeing out there on the streets in terms of inventory, pricing, and respective bargaining power between buyers and sellers? Has the tide really shifted back to sellers? A: (Lara Gordon) Yes—in a very big way. When sellers have 5-10 offers to choose from, which is typical for most listings in Cambridge & Somerville right now, they are really setting the terms, and some buyers are willing to accommodate just about any request they make, from waiving the inspection to offering a sale-and-lease-back if the seller needs time to find a new place. My listing at 27 Osgood Street, Unit 7 in Somerville (pictures to the right) is a good example — 6 bids. Q: Lara, I’m hearing about bidding wars on well-priced, good condition properties. What are you seeing out there, and what’s your best advice on getting that winning bid? A: (Lara Gordon) I always tell my buyer clients this: if you know you’re going into a multiple offer situation, you should put your best foot forward from the start. Some people feel nervous about coming in high on their offer, thinking they need to leave some room to come up during negotiations, but that is a mistake. If a seller receives one offer that is significantly stronger than the others, they may well accept it without going back for a “best and final” round. And again, price is just one aspect of the offer, so have a good pre-approval from a respected lender, do the best you can with the downpayment, be willing to work with sellers’ preferred dates, and make sure your agent is “selling” you as a knowledgeable buyer, reasonable to deal with, and committed to seeing the transaction through. Q: What do buyers need to do in terms of making their best and most competitive offer? Are we back to buyer’s writing a personal appeal to sellers and that sort of thing? A: (Lara Gordon) Some buyers do write letters to sellers, but it’s the list agent’s job to keep them focused on the strengths of the respective offers, so an emotional appeal really only gets a buyer so far. Buyers really need to put their best foot forward. This starts with price, downpayment, a solid pre-approval from a respected lender, tight contingency dates and as much as possible accommodating the sellers’ preferred timeframe for closing. Beyond that, list agents and sellers are looking for a deal that will proceed smoothly and will “stick” through closing, so buyers’ agents really need to “sell” their clients as educated on the market, realistic about the home inspection and committed to seeing the deal through. Q: Brian, I hear that buyers are coming to you at all hours and weekends for pre-approvals. When buyers come to you for mortgage approval, what sort of documentation should they have ready to go and how quickly can you close loans these days? A: (Cavanaugh). Well, I’ll start off by staying that the pendulum has definitely swung around. When the market favored buyers, you would go look for houses, get an offer accepted then go to your mortgage banker for an approval. Now it’s the other way around. You need a mortgager approval in hand when you are out looking for homes. And that means from the start you need a very firm grasp on exactly what you can afford, how much to put down, etc. You need to work with a mortgage banker with a strong grasp of Fannie and Freddie guidelines. As for the paperwork, you need 2 years of tax return and W2’s, 30 days of pay-stubs, one year of bank statements, statements for your 401ks, IRAs, and investment accounts. A lot of first time buyers use gifts of downpayment from their parents, which are particularly tricky. I tell them to get those monies into your account ASAP. You will need a gift letter executed by all parties involved and verification of funds. Currently, we can close a single family loan in 45 days, and a condo purchase in about 60 days, since condo mortgages require more extensive FNMA approval. Q: How much are sellers looking at buyers’ financing? Are cash buyers winning out over financed buyers? What are the ways to ensure a seller that a financed buyer is of no greater risk that a cash buyer? A: (Lara Gordon) Cash is definitely an advantage in that it takes one element of risk out of the equation. For sellers in a rush to close, a cash deal is also appealing because it can close a lot faster than when a lender is involved. But if timing isn’t a big deal and there are good comps for the property, there’s no reason a seller shouldn’t consider a good offer from a buyer who will finance. Of course, the size of the downpayment has become increasingly important as bidding wars drive prices up and appraisals become a concern. Q: How are you dealing with contingencies in a seller’s market? Are buyers waiving inspection or even financing? A: (Lara Gordon) There are certainly buyers out there waiving both financing and inspection contingencies, but it’s not always a good idea. While it’s fine for buyers to waive the financing contingency if they’re prepared to pay cash, I personally, would never advise someone to forego a home inspection. The key is to approach it as educational and a way out in case of a major issue, and not as a tool for renegotiating the price. A: (Vetstein) I’m going to weigh in on this topic as it deals with legal issues. I would STRONGLY advise a financed buyer to resist the temptation to waive the financing contingency in the hope that it will make an offer more attractive. In this day and age of strict underwriting and frequent delays, this is simply a recipe for losing your deposit. I don’t care if a handful of lenders have told you that your file is a slam dunk — you could get laid off a few weeks before close and you’d be DOA for the closing. Same goes for the inspection contingency. Sellers know that buyers want to check the home’s bones beforehand. Trust me, it will cost you a lot more money down the line if you wind up buying equivalent of the “Money Pit.” Tightening the deadlines, that’s fine. Waiving them, that’s just asinine. A: (Cavanaugh) I would echo Rich’s sentiments. In this day and age of tight lending guidelines, I would hate to see a buyer lose his deposit because he was under the assumption that he could qualify for a mortgage he really couldn’t qualify for. Again, talk to your mortgage banker before you make the offer. Q: Last question guys. I always recommend that my buyers use a Realtor. But please tell the readers exactly why having a Realtor can greatly increase your chances of succeeding in a seller’s market? A: (Lara Gordon) I’m glad you asked this question, Rich, because some people think that they will do better if they go directly to the list agent, but given the nature of the market right now, it just doesn’t make sense to try to go it alone. A: (Cavanaugh). When my borrower works with a Realtor, it always makes the transaction run smoothly. I operate under a “team” concept with the agents, so I’m used to constant contact with both the buyer and listing agent to ensure we get access for the appraisal and all the documentation in place for the loan commitment and closing. When there’s a team of professionals involved in a transaction, it’s a win-win for everyone. A: (Vetstein) A low inventory/seller’s market is precisely why you want a Realtor who knows the market inside out and can be your salesperson/spokesperson on your side. In a market where perception is everything, I think it’s fair to say that a listing agent/seller will take you more seriously if you are working with a top notch Realtor, rather than sauntering solo into an open house in your Bean duck boots. Not to mention that the buyer does not typically pay an agent commission in Massachusetts. Also, selfishly, working with a client with a Realtor is less stressful for the attorney. Q: Lara and Brian, any final words of wisdom as we head full bore into the busy spring market? A: (Lara Gordon) I guess I’d just like to acknowledge that this is a tough market for buyers, and I totally understand the stress and frustration many people are feeling. In an ideal world, you’d find a great house, take some time to think things over, maybe visit a few times, then make a fair offer in a non-competitive situation, and you’d have a new home. But buyers need to accept the reality of the market we’re in: we’ve got low inventory and high demand, and you won’t necessarily get the first house you bid on. Maybe not even the second or third. But if you are qualified financially, have realistic expectations, are patient and persistent, and know how to play the game, you will ultimately find a home. A: (Cavanaugh). I would urge would-be buyers to talk to a mortgage banker as early as possible in the process. We still have near all time mortgage interest rates. Affordability may never be as good as now, so hang in there in terms of bidding wars and a seller’s market. RMS Mortgage is well known brand and people either know me by reputation or have worked with me. So you have some instant credibility with the listing agent who can vouch for a smooth and successful transaction, and that’s very important in this seller’s market. Thank you to Brian Cavanaugh and Lara Gordon for a great round-table discussion! Lara can be reached at [email protected] or 617-245-3939. Lara blogs at Cambridegville. Brian can be reached at [email protected] and 617-771-5021. Brian blogs at Smarterborrowing.com. { 5 comments } Bright And Sunny Early, With A Chance Of Severe Job Cuts Later: The 2013 Massachusetts Real Estate Market Forecast by Rich Vetstein on January 9, 2013 in Fannie Mae, Massachusetts Property Values, Realtors, Short Sales Yesterday my firm sponsored a very informative breakfast seminar with veteran real estate journalist Scott Van Voorhis of Banker & Tradesman and Boston.com who offered his predictions on the 2013 Massachusetts real estate market. The presentation included a lively question and answer session with the 40+ Realtors attending from all over the Greater Boston area. Here are some take-aways from the seminar (in no particular order): “Bright and sunny early, but with a chance of severe job cuts later.” According to Mr. Van Voorhis, the Fiscal Cliff and upcoming Debt Reduction negotiations may be the biggest obstacle remaining in the path of a sustained real estate recovery. At stake are anywhere from 50,000 – 70,000 jobs in Massachusetts if the current slate of proposed budget cuts pass — to defense (i.e., Raytheon), health care, hospitals, and medical research, and tech sectors. If Massachusetts sees severe spending cuts by the federal government, the Route 128 corridor will be most impacted. The current impact is of “wait and see” with defense contractors and tech companies waiting to see how the federal budget battle with be resolved. They are putting new hires on hold and bracing for possible cuts. The fact that Congress will likely wait until the last minute to resolve these important issues doesn’t help the market any! We’re back…. Median sale prices in many suburbs are now back to 2005 levels. Natick’s median price is $418,500, just off from its ’05 high. Needham has surpassed its ’05 record with a median price of $670,000. Burlington has broken its ’05 record at $407,000 median price. A major driver of the real estate recovery is the tech-sector, with Route 128 lab space expanding by 50%, or 3.5 million square feet of space, since 2007, enough to fill three Prudential Towers of space. Shire in Lexington and Genzyme in Framingham have led with way. Tear-Downs On The Rise. Builders are doing tear-downs instead of large scale subdivisions, where financial risk is minimal. Early data indicates increasing market activity in tear-downs in Lexington, Newton and Needham, for example. Low Inventory of Move-In-Ready Homes. The attending Realtors lamented about the dearth of move-in-ready homes in the sought after towns. As we know, there is hardly any buildable land in Massachusetts, and builders have not been doing subdivisions for several years. The agents say bidding wars are back in a big way for these properties, which creates problems with potentially low bank appraisals as the “comps” must catch up with new sales data. The low inventory also affects potential home sellers, especially the empty nesters who are “paralyzed” as one agent described, waiting on the best time to sell. Buyers’ Lack of Vision. We discussed that the current generation of buyers would rather pay a premium for a move-in-ready home with the requisite gourmet kitchen with granite and stainless steel appliances, rather than pay less for a fixer-upper. Some Realtors have enlisted trusted contractors to scope out fixer-uppers along with buyers, so they can envision the potential of a lower priced home. Condos Remain Strong Sector. Condominiums remain the new starter home for many buyers, especially singles. Inventory is strong and pricing remains affordable in many communities. With interest rates still at historic lows and the mortgage interest tax deduction still in place, purchasing a condo is much cheaper than renting. The consensus is that condos will remain a strong sector through 2013. Short Sales Strong & Less Time Consuming. As noted by veteran short sale negotiator Andrew Coppo of Greater Boston Short Sales LLC, short sales are now becoming far less time consuming with the new Fannie Mae short sale guidelines in place since the summer. Mr. Coppo reports that short sales are taking merely 60 days to get approval, and Bank of America finally “getting it” by implementing its computerized Equator streamlined short sale system. Also, the Mortgage Debt Relief Act was extended through 2013, giving short sale sellers tax forgiveness for discharged debt. There are still lots of underwater and struggling homeowners, so 2013 will remain another strong year for short sales. What are your predictions and thoughts for the 2013 Massachusetts real estate market? We would love to hear from you! ________________________________________________________ Richard D. Vetstein, Esq. is a Massachusetts real estate attorney who writes frequently about new legislation concerning the real estate industry. He can be reached at [email protected]vetsteinlawgroup.com. { 2 comments } Hanging Off The Fiscal Cliff? What Will 2013 Bring To The Massachusetts Real Estate Market? by Rich Vetstein on December 9, 2012 in Fannie Mae, FHA, Massachusetts Property Values, Mortgage Crisis, Realtors, Short Sales High Anxiety Heading Into 2013 The term Fiscal Cliff should be as ubiquitous as “Merry Christmas” and “Happy Holidays” through the year-end, especially if President Obama and Congress cannot work out a deal to resolve the more than $500 billion in tax increases and across-the-board spending cuts scheduled to take effect after Jan. 1, 2013. If there is no deal, and the country goes over the fiscal cliff, the consensus is that it will have quite a negative effect on the economy and the real estate market in particular. (I debated using the word “disastrous” because there is a segment of commentators who say the housing market may survive a fall off the cliff). There are four particular aspects of the Fiscal Cliff which could impact the real estate market. 1. Expiration of Unemployment Benefits. Emergency jobless benefits for about 2.1 million people out of work will cease Dec. 29, and 1 million more will lose them over the next three months if Congress doesn’t extend the assistance again. Unemployed, even those receiving assistance, cannot and do not purchases homes. Democrats and President Obama want the unemployment benefits extended, but the Republicans are attempting to use this as leverage for their own fiscal cliff agenda. The real estate market will surely suffer if benefits aren’t extended. 2. Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act. The Mortgage Forgiveness Act is set to expire December 31. This tax break is critical for short sales, relieving homeowners from being taxed on any mortgage debt that was forgiven through a short sale, foreclosure or loan modification. If distressed homeowners are subject to tax on millions in debt forgiveness, short sales will likely decrease dramatically. 3. Mortgage Interest Tax Deduction. Once the sacred cow tax break for millions of middle and upper class homeowners, the mortgage interest deduction is reportedly on the chopping block. The National Association of Realtors and real estate groups have been apoplectic in urging no change to this important benefit to homeowners. Eliminating the mortgage deduction would raise taxes on all homeowners, and could dissuade renters from becoming homeowners. 4. FHA/Fannie Mae Bailout. The Federal Housing Administration, the lender of choice for first-time homebuyers, is nearly insolvent and it could require a taxpayer bailout next year, according Edward J. Pinto, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Pinto claims the 78-year-old agency is $34.5 billion short of its legal capital requirement. “If it were a private company, it would be shut down,” argues Pinto. These aren’t the only issues threatening the real estate market. Since Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken over by the government in 2008, taxpayers have plowed $180 billion into them to keep them operational. This mess needs to be fixed next year. Well, if your stomach isn’t in knots, mine is. Luckily, we have some medicine for you! On January 8, 2013, we are sponsoring a breakfast seminar with veteran real estate journalist Scott Van Voorhis, who will offer his predictions on what 2013 will bring. Please email me to sign up. The Facebook Event invitation is here. The venue is Avita in Needham, 880 Greendale Ave., Needham, MA. _____________________________________________________ Richard D. Vetstein is an experienced Massachusetts real estate attorney who hopes the White House and Congress can get their acts together and pass a compromise bill to avoid the Fiscal Cliff. { 0 comments } Massachusetts Municipalities and Residents Gearing Up For Battle Over Medical Marijuana Dispensaries by Rich Vetstein on November 11, 2012 in Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Medical Marijuana, Permitting/Zoning, Safety, Zoning Breaking: Attorney General Strikes Down Wakefield Ban on Dispensary Hazy Legal Landscape Providing Angst to Town Planners Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly approved the Medical Marijuana Ballot Initiative/Question 3 (click for full text), opening the door to the opening of at least 35 medical marijuana dispensaries throughout the state in 2013. But, the bigger question is whether the same voters and town leaders will support the opening of dispensaries on their own street corners and downtown areas. Many towns and cities are already gearing up for a fight over the locations, as one marijuana law firm is already scheduling seminars on how to open up dispensaries in Framingham. In litigious Massachusetts, we can certainly expect aggrieved abutters to challenge the opening of what they call “pot shops” next to their residences and businesses. The actual opening of marijuana dispensaries could be years away due to litigation and opposition. Up To 35 Marijuana Dispensaries in 2013 The ballot law authorizes the opening of up to 35 dispensaries in 2013, and the Department of Public Health retains authority to open more later if demand is there. The law requires that at least one dispensary must be located in each of Massachusetts’ 14 counties, but caps each county at no more than 5 locations. The law seeks an accelerated rollout of dispensaries. Treatment centers can file applications as early as January 1, 2013, and open up to 120 days later, subject to the rollout of regulations by the state Department of Public Health. Possible Target Locations Based on size, county seat, and demographics, likely locations for marijuana dispensaries in Eastern Massachusetts would include: ((This is my own opinion/analysis.)) Boston, Roxbury/Dorchester/Mattapan, South Boston (Suffolk County) Cambridge, Lowell, Framingham, Marlborough, Waltham, Woburn (Middlesex County) ((The location of dispensaries in Middlesex county — Massachusetts’ most populous county — will be a huge battle.)) Lawrence, Salem, Peabody, Lynn (Essex County) Dedham, Quincy, Brookline, Franklin (Norfolk County) Brockton, Plymouth, Middleboro (Plymouth County) Taunton, New Bedford (Bristol County) Worcester (Worcester County) A Smoky Legal Landscape The ballot provision, however, is very murky as to how cities and towns are supposed to handle the potential influx of dispensaries. This is causing town leaders to scramble for legal guidance as to whether they should either attempt to block locations wholesale or enact special zoning districts regulating the placement of dispensaries. As for any attempt to block the opening of marijuana centers, the question will have to be answered by the courts as the law is silent as to whether municipalities have this power. The legal issues surrounding municipal zoning and siting of medical marijuana dispensaries will likely follow similar cases involving methadone clinics, alcohol treatment centers/sober houses and even adult entertainment venues — all uses which are legal, yet subject to reasonable zoning governance. Additionally, treatment centers could seek protection from the American’s With Disabilities Act and other disability laws which protect cancer, HIV, glaucoma and other qualified patients who are entitled to receive medical marijuana. I am of the opinion that a municipality cannot enact an ordinance or by-law which will block a marijuana dispensary from opening in town as long as the dispensary has complied with all DPH regulations. The town, however, can utilize its zoning powers to regulate where in town such a dispensary can be located, so long as the town does not enact illegal “spot zoning” in so doing. While medical marijuana may have passed fairly easily on Election Day, it will probably be some time before Massachusetts sorts out all the legal issues as to where these dispensaries should go. I am going to keep this post updated with news articles and posts about the new law and reaction to it, below. What We Learned from Today’s Boston City Council Hearing on Medical Marijuana Boston City Council Discusses Locations of Marijuana Centers Town of Reading Votes to Ban Marijuana Dispensaries Quincy Marijuana Ordinance Draws Attention of Cannabis Coalition Wakefield Moves to Ban Medical Marijuana in Town _____________________________________________ Richard D. Vetstein, Esq. is an experience Massachusetts zoning and real estate attorney. If you are concerned or have questions about the new Medical Marijuana Law, please contact him at [email protected]. { 8 comments } Hurricane Sandy Massachusetts Real Estate Impact & Preparedness Bulletin by Rich Vetstein on October 25, 2012 in Insurance, Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Safety Impact on Pending Home Sales and Refinances Meteorologists are now predicting that early next week Hurricane Sandy will either pass close by or make a direct impact on New England. This storm is potentially huge, rivaling last year’s Hurricane Irene and the Perfect Storm of 1991. If you are closing on a property next week, you may want to consider pushing up the closing to before the hurricane makes landfall on early Tuesday. I realize that may not be possible at this point, but it’s worth a shot. If you have not secured a homeowner’s insurance policy, you should probably wait until the storm passes as most carriers will not write new policies right now. If you are closing on a purchase or refinance after the storm passes — and especially if the Federal Government declares a Federal Disaster Area –be prepared to have a re-inspection of the property before closing. A hurricane considered to be an Act of God and as a result the borrower will be required to pay for any re-inspection fee. These re-inspections range from $125 to $200. You will receive notice from your lender and re-disclosures prior to closing. This will also likely delay your closing If there is substantial damage to a home you are purchasing, you’ll have to look to your purchase and sale agreement as to whether you have a right to pull out of the deal or proceed, provided you get the benefit of any insurance proceeds. Hurricane Safety Precautions & Information Important Links National Weather Service Hurricane Center FEMA Hurricane Center Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) Weather Channel Hurricane Central American Red Cross Hurricane App (iPhone & Android) Pre-Planning: Plan an evacuation route to the nearest shelter or “safe” area and keep a map handy. During emergencies, shelter locations will announced on the radio. Replenish emergency kits and supplies. Get lots of batteries and flashlights! Secure important documents from possible damage or move to a safe location. Develop a list of important phone numbers. Develop a plan to secure loose objects around the house; trim branches and trees. Ensure that your pets have collars and identification tags. Prior to the Hurricane: Secure all loose objects outdoors. Secure all windows using plywood. Fill your vehicle with fuel. Charge all batteries (i.e. phone, lamps, flashlights, radios, etc.) Listen to the emergency broadcasts of the storm. Be prepared to evacuate with emergency supplies to a predetermined location. During the Hurricane: Stay in doors and away from windows. Keep to the center of the building on the ground level. Listen to the emergency broadcast on the radio or television. Turn off all electrical devices and appliances that are not needed. Stay away from coastal waters, rivers, streams or other flooding areas. Do not try to cross flooded areas with your vehicle. Listen for instructions from emergency officials when the storm is over. Emergency Supplies and Kits: First aid kit and personal medications Drinking water Ice Chest Lighter, matches and candles Clothing, personal toiletries Sleeping bags and blankets Portable radio and flashlight Extra batteries Non-perishable foods Manual can opener Important documents Quiet games, books, or toys for children Local Insurance Claims Numbers Acadia Insurance (800) 691-4966 AIG (Global Energy) (877) 743-7669 Chartis (formerly AIG) Private Client Group 888-760-9195 Andover Companies: Cambridge Mutual & Merrimack Mutual (800) 225-0770 Chubb Group (800) 252-4670 Commerce (800) 221-1605 Fireman’s Fund (888) 347-3428 Great American (888) 882-3835 Guard Insurance Group (888) 639-2567 Hanover Insurance (800) 628-0250 Hartford Insurance (800) 327-3636 Hingham Mutual (After hours claims) (800) 972-5399 Mass. Property Insurance Underwriting (800) 851-8978 Trident (After hours claims) (800) 288-2502 Tower (877) 365-8693 Quincy Mutual (800) 490-0047 Safety Insurance (800) 951-2100 Selective Insurance (866) 455-9969 Splash Program (Emergency Pollution related claims) (866) 577-5274 Splash Program (Emergency Non-Pollution related claims) (800) 746-3835 Travelers Personal lines: (877) 425-2466 Commercial: (800) 832-7839 Utica National (800) 216-1420 Vermont Mutual (After hours claims) (800) 445-2330 Zurich/Maryland (800) 565-6295 Good luck!!!! { 0 comments } Everything You Wanted To Know About Massachusetts Easements, But Were Afraid To Ask by Rich Vetstein on April 18, 2012 in Easements, Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Title Defects Utility, Gas Pipeline, Access, Drainage & Prescriptive Easements, and More! When you are considering purchasing a home in Massachusetts, the property may have the benefit or burden of an easement. Most easements and restrictions are quite “harmless” and standard, however, some can have a major impact on future expansion possibilities and the right to use portions of the property. In this post, I’m going to go through the most common types of easements and how they can affect the value and use of your property. What Is An Easement? In plain English, an easement is a right that another person or company has to use your property. They don’t own your property, but the easement gives them the legal right to use your property as specified in the easement instrument. The property that enjoys the benefit of the easement is sometimes referred to as the “dominant estate,” and the property over, under, or through which the easement runs is sometimes referred to as the “servient estate.” Easements are usually recorded in the registry of deeds, but sometimes they can arise from “implication” or “by necessity.” I’ll explain those later. Utility Easements The most common types of easements in Massachusetts are utility easements for such things as overhead and underground power lines, cable lines, gas lines, and water mains. These easements allow the utility companies to use portions of residential property to provide their respective utility services. Sometimes, the easements will show up on a plot plan or survey, and some will be found recorded in the title, usually when the lot was first laid out. The majority of these easements do not materially affect the use and expansion of your property, however, the one type of easement to take note of are high pressure gas line easements. For obvious safety reasons, these easements usually carry with them strict restrictions on what can be built on or near them. Here is a good article on gas pipeline easements, albeit from Pennsylvania, but the law is generally the same here. Driveway or Access Easements Another common type of easements that are found in Massachusetts are access easements for driveways and the like. Properties with shared driveways will often have easements enabling such sharing– or they should! These easements should also provide for common maintenance and upkeep responsibilities and expense. Other types of access easements include walking and bike paths and beach access – very common down the Cape and on the Islands. Drainage Easements Another common type of easements are drainage easements which are typical for newer subdivisions. Drainage easements allow for one lot to drain its storm water onto another or into a detention pond. Prescriptive Easements If you have heard of adverse possession, then you know what a prescriptive easement is all about. An easement by prescription is an easement acquired through adverse possession – which is the hostile adverse use of someone else’s property for 20 or more continuous years. Prescriptive easements arise where people have acted as though an easement has existed but there is no instrument of easement recorded at the registry of deeds. For example, a prescriptive easement can arise if a neighbor’s family has used a walking path on the neighbor’s property for over 20 years. twenty years. I’ve written extensively on adverse possession in this post. Easements by Implication and by Necessity An easement by implication is found in the law when there is no recorded easement, but where the circumstances show an easement was intended to exist. It usually exists where there is common ownership of a lot, the seller conveys a portion of the land under current ownership, and both parties intended to create an easement at the time of conveyance. If someone claims an easement by implication which negatively affects one’s property, the owner’s title insurance policy, if any, will typically cover that situation. Easements by necessity occur when a property is sold in a land-locked configuration without any legal access. An easement is therefore created “by necessity” to prevent the land-locking. An adverse easement by necessity would also be covered by an owner’s title insurance policy. ________________________________________________________ Richard D. Vetstein, Esq. is an experienced Massachusetts real estate attorney. They can be reached by email at [email protected] or 508-620-5352. { 1 comment } Driveways, Drainage, and Dirt Paths, Oh My! Massachusetts Easements Explained by Rich Vetstein on April 17, 2012 in Easements, Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Permitting/Zoning, Premises Liability, Safety, Title Defects, Title Insurance When you are considering purchasing a home in Massachusetts, the property may have the benefit or burden of an easement. Most easements and restrictions are quite “harmless” and standard, however, some can have a major impact on future expansion possibilities and the right to use portions of the property. In this post, I’m going to go through the most common types of easements and how they can affect property. What Is An Easement? In plain English, an easement is a right that another person or company has to use your property. They don’t own your property, but the easement gives them the legal right to use your property as specified in the easement instrument. The property that enjoys the benefit of the easement is sometimes referred to as the “dominant estate,” and the property over, under, or through which the easement runs is sometimes referred to as the “servient estate.” Easements are usually recorded in the registry of deeds, but sometimes they can arise from “implication” or “by necessity.” I’ll explain those later. Utility Easements The most common types of easements in Massachusetts are utility easements for such things as overhead and underground power lines, cable lines, gas lines, and water mains. These easements allow the utility companies to use portions of residential property to provide their respective utility services. Sometimes, the easements will show up on a plot plan or survey, and some will be found recorded in the title, usually when the lot was first laid out. The majority of these easements do not materially affect the use and expansion of your property, however, the one type of easement to take note of are high pressure gas line easements. For obvious safety reasons, these easements usually carry with them strict restrictions on what can be built on or near them. Driveway or Access Easements Another common type of easements that are found in Massachusetts are access easements for driveways and the like. Properties with shared driveways will often have easements enabling such sharing– or they should! These easements should also provide for common maintenance and upkeep responsibilities and expense. Other types of access easements include walking and bike paths and beach access – very common down the Cape and on the Islands. Drainage Easements Another common type of easements are drainage easements which are typical for newer subdivisions. Drainage easements allow for one lot to drain its storm water onto another or into a detention pond. Prescriptive Easements If you have heard of adverse possession, then you know what a prescriptive easement is all about. An easement by prescription is an easement acquired through adverse possession – which is the hostile adverse use of someone else’s property for 20 or more continuous years. Prescriptive easements arise where people have acted as though an easement has existed but there is no instrument of easement recorded at the registry of deeds. For example, a prescriptive easement can arise if a neighbor’s family has used a walking path on the neighbor’s property for over 20 years. twenty years. I’ve written extensively on adverse possession in this post. Easements by Implication and by Necessity An easement by implication is found in the law when there is no recorded easement, but where the circumstances show an easement was intended to exist. It usually exists where there is common ownership of a lot, the seller conveys a portion of the land under current ownership, and both parties intended to create an easement at the time of conveyance. If someone claims an easement by implication which negatively affects one’s property, the owner’s title insurance policy, if any, will typically cover that situation. Easements by necessity occur when a property is sold in a land-locked configuration without any legal access. An easement is therefore created “by necessity” to prevent the land-locking. An adverse easement by necessity would also be covered by an owner’s title insurance policy. ________________________________________________________ Richard D. Vetstein, Esq. is an experienced Massachusetts real estate attorney. They can be reached by email at [email protected] or 508-620-5352. { 0 comments } Massachusetts Appeals Court Drops The Eviction Hammer On Post-Foreclosure Squatters by Rich Vetstein on April 10, 2012 in Foreclosure, Landlord Tenant Law, Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Mortgage Crisis Common Eviction Defenses Ruled Unavailable To Squatters Who Lived Rent/Mortgage Free For 3 Years In a April 10, 2012 ruling, the Massachusetts Appeals Court just made it easier for foreclosing banks to evict squatters of foreclosed properties. This is one of the few pro-bank Massachusetts decisions coming out of the foreclosure crisis, and should help speed up the disposition and sale of foreclosure and REO properties which, in turn, should help the housing market. The case is Deutsche Bank v. Gabriel, and can be downloaded here. The defendants were all members of a single family living at 195-197 Callender Street in Dorchester for over 28 years. In 2009, the property went into foreclosure, and Deutsche Bank acquired title by foreclosure deed. As has become common in neighborhoods throughout Boston, the foreclosed upon family refused to leave, and Deutsche Bank brought eviction proceedings against them. The family fought the eviction tooth-and-nail, and asserted the very common statutory defense based on poor property conditions. This defense, if successful, can prevent a landlord from recovering possession. Aside from irony that the family had been living at the premises for 28 years and was therefore the clear cause of any bad property conditions, the Appeals Court held that the family were squatters (and not tenants) with no legal entitlement to raise this defense. Barring another appeal, the court cleared the way for the eviction, some 6 years after the foreclosure and presumably with the tenants living rent and mortgage free the entire time. With the housing market turning around, this decision is some long-awaited good news for those dealing with REO and foreclosed properties. Squatting tenants will be easier to evict and properties should be back on the market faster. Bad news for those fighting foreclosure, but good news for the real estate market. ___________________________________________ Richard D. Vetstein, Esq. is an experienced Massachusetts real estate and eviction attorney. For more information, please contact him at 508-620-5352 or [email protected]. { 1 comment } Bidding Wars Are Back In Greater Boston! Legal And Strategic Guidance For Massachusetts Buyers & Sellers by Rich Vetstein on March 24, 2012 in Condominium Law, Disclosures, Massachusetts Property Values, Massachusetts Real Estate Law, Offer To Purchase, Real Estate Marketing, Realtors I cannot believe I’m writing this post, but yes it’s true, the real estate market in Greater Boston, Massachusetts has now come full circle and bidding wars are back. Don’t believe me? Just read this Boston Globe article from today. Now that bidding wars are back, buyers and sellers have questions, so we’ll try to answer them here. I’ve also asked a few local real estate agents to offer their expertise as well. What Are The Legal Issues Surrounding Bidding Wars? A bidding war arises when there are several competing offers for a listing at the same time. There are really no hard and fast legal rules with bidding wars. Contrary to popular belief, a private seller in Massachusetts is not legally obligated to accept the highest offer made during a bidding war. A seller can be as financial prudent or as irrationally arbitrary as she wants in deciding which offer to accept. A seller may decide to forgo the highest offer in favor of a lower offer due such factors as the financial strength of the buyer (i.e., a cash buyer), because the buyer waived inspections, or simply because the buyer wrote the sellers a lovely letter about how wonderful their home is! (Read on for one agent’s advice on letter writing). Legally, an offer is simply an invitation to negotiate, and provides a buyer with zero legal rights to the property. An offer does not create a legally enforceable contract — unless it is accepted and signed by the seller. For real estate agents involved in bidding wars, they have an ethical and fiduciary duty to get the highest and best offer for their sellers. There is nothing illegal about a seller or their agent creating a bidding war, so as to pit one bidder against each other. A listing agent is doing a good job for their client in creating such a market for a property. Ethically, a real estate agent must be truthful and honest when communicating with all prospective buyers and cannot make any material misrepresentations, such as lie about an offering price. Agents must present all offers to their clients, however, the ultimate decision to accept an offer always remains with the seller. There are different ways to manage a bidding war, and again, there are no special legalities for it. Some agents will set a date by which all preliminary bids have to be in. If there are only two bidders, an agent can go back to the lowest bidder and ask if he or she would like to re-bid. An agent can continue that process until one of the bidders backs out. If there are more than two bidders, some agents will set a second round of bidding with a minimum price of the highest bid in the preliminary round. If no one bids in the second round, the agent can return to that high bid. Bidding wars are fast moving, so buyers need to be able to react quickly. Generally, disgruntled buyers who lose out on bidding wars do not have a legal leg to stand on — unless their offer was accepted and signed by the seller or there is clear proof an agent lied about something important. That is why making your offer stand out in a bidding war is so important. Buyers: How To Make Your Offer Stand Out In A Crowd In a bidding war, buyers ask how can they maximize their chance to be the offer the seller accepts? Gabrielle Daniels, of Coldwell Banker Sudbury, offers this great advice on her blog, LiveInSudburyMa.com: Make your offer STRONG. If you know that there are other offers on the property, make your offer financially strong as possible. If you believe the house is worth asking price, offer asking price. Forget about the TV shows that tell you to offer 90 percent of asking. That is ridiculous – UNLESS that is what the house is worth. Every situation is different. Every house is worth something different. There are no “general rules” about what to offer. Be prepared. Have your pre-approval ready. Sign all of the paperwork related to the offer (seller’s disclosure, lead paint transfer, etc.) Write a check, leave a check with your agent. It is better than a faxed copy of the check. Don’t leave any loose ends. Show some love to the house (and the seller). Write a letter to the sellers, tell them why you love the house and why you are the best buyer for the house. Sure, this is a business transaction, but it is one of the most personal business transactions in which you will be involved. Your real estate agent should be able to help you with this. For more great tips for buyers involved in a bidding war, read Gabrielle’s post, Multiple Thoughts On Multiple Offers. Sellers, How Can You Take Advantage of Bidding Wars For sellers in a bidding war market, it all comes down to pricing, as Heidi Zizza of mdm Realty in Framingham explains on her blog, MetrowestHomesandLife.com: I had a house listing in Natick this past year. The house valued out to around $620,000. We could have gone to market at $629,900 or $639,900 and had many showings that eventually would land us an offer around $610,000 or so. We figured that at that price it would take the average days on market which was (if memory serves correctly) close to 90 days. We decided to go to market at $599,900. The house got so much attention we had a HUGE turnout at the first showing/Open House and had 4 offers by that evening all competing and all over asking. The highest bid was $620,000 and we sold the property in one day. You too can do the same thing. Market your house at a price that is so attractive you will be best in show. Your buyers will let you know it, and you will definitely get an offer, maybe even several! For those of us in the real estate business who have weathered the storm of the last 4-5 years, this is “all good” as we say! The more bidding wars, the better! __________________________________________________ Richard D. Vetstein, Esq. is an experienced Massachusetts real estate attorney. They can be reached by email at [email protected] or 508-620-5352. { 4 comments } Breaking News: Massachusetts Joins National Foreclosure Abuse Settlement by Rich Vetstein on February 9, 2012 in Foreclosure, Massachusetts Property Values, Mortgage Crisis, Mortgages Updated (2.9.12 6:30pm) In the largest national settlement since the tobacco litigation, the Boston Globe is reporting that Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley is expected today to sign on to a settlement brokered by attorneys general nationwide with five major US lenders over the banks’ role in the country’s foreclosure crisis. As we wrote about here, in December of last year AG Coakley pulled out of the settlement and brought a historical lawsuit against the big lenders over foreclosure abuses. As reported in the Globe, Coakley has been been negotiating for days with lenders over the pact, which has been months in the making. Massachusetts is one of only a few states that have yet to agree to the settlement, which reportedly could total between $25 billion and $30 billion. The money is being promised by Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co., Citibank, and Ally Financial Inc. According to Coakley’s office, Massachusetts estimated total share of the settlement is nearly $318 Million: Massachusetts borrowers will receive an estimated $224 Million in benefits from loan term modifications and other direct relief. Massachusetts borrowers who lost their home to foreclosure from January 1, 2008 through December 31, 2011 and suffered servicing abuse would qualify for $14.6 Million in cash payments to borrowers. The value of refinanced loans to Massachusetts underwater borrowers would be an estimated $32.7 Million. Banker and Tradesman is reporting that homeowners still living in underwater properties may get up to $20,000 each for principal reductions. That may not be nearly enough for many victims of foreclosure abuses. It’s unclear how much money will be available for much needed mortgage principal reduction and loan modifications. However, the state was told yesterday it could sign on to the pact without giving up its right to litigate other issues related to the five lenders and how they conducted foreclosures, according to the Globe. Under terms of the tentative agreement, Coakley apparently will still be able to pursue claims against MERS and lenders for foreclosures in Massachusetts without having the proper paperwork. For more information, here is the Attorney General’s Press Release. { 1 comment } 2012 Massachusetts Real Estate Market Survey by Rich Vetstein on January 22, 2012 in Massachusetts Property Values, Real Estate Taxes, Realtors, Refinances January in the real estate industry is typically the time for the new year market outlook. For this coming year many of us have seen the template on the macro-economic data which most impacts the real estate industry: 8.5 % unemployment in the latest report, 30 year mortgage rates at record lows at or below 4.0%, and 15 year mortgage rates at or below 3.25%. Rather than run a standard metrics-based market forecast this year, I decided to survey a cross-section of Massachusetts real estate realtors and mortgage professionals to hear from them on the upcoming spring and the 2012 real estate market in its entirety. Overall, each of the real estate professionals I contacted were optimistic. They tend to see the low interest rates and improving economy as the drivers of a busy 2012 housing market. Thus, here is a compendium of professionals I surveyed: “I am optimistic that interest rates will remain low at least until the presidential elections. The uncertainty that has constrained spending and lending will keep things from taking off until there is a clearer picture of what policies will be in place (intervention and regulation vs. deregulation and free markets). The increasing debt woes of EU members creates short term demand for our mortgage bonds and treasuries which drives down interest rates. This won’t be fixed overnight. The housing collapse hangover continues to cause problems. The economy and in particular the housing market is still too weak to suffer increased interest rates. Rates will remain low until the cash on the sidelines is invested, employment improves and housing sees some recovery. The Fed has shown that they will move to buy mortgage backed securities and treasuries if we see rates start to rise and I can’t see them sitting on their hands if rates rise and threaten to derail this slow economic recovery. This is an incredible time to buy a home with prices low and the cost of money so low as well.” –Loan Officer, Bank of Canton, Boston, Brookline and Route 128 suburbs “I expect the 2012 real estate market in the greater Boston area to be stable. Overall, buyers will continue to have the upper hand but I don’t think we are going to see any precipitous drop in either sales prices or the number of sales. If interest rates remain low it continues to be a good time to get into the market knowing that you are getting in somewhere close to the bottom.” –Realtor, Keller Williams, Cambridge, “As we embark on the new year there are many reasons to be optimistic. Rates are expected to remain at all time lows for the next 12 months and there is plenty of inventory for home buyers. More importantly, we are starting to see better listing prices from sellers who are clearly more realistic about what to expect. Contrary to what the media would have consumers believe, there is plenty of financing available for qualified buyers – and it doesn’t always require 20% down. First time buyers are surprised to see how affordable it is to own their own home, and with programs available with as little as 3% down and no PMI I expect to see a big surge in this demographic.” –Loan Officer, Fairway Mortgage, Route 128 Suburbs “I see a slow start to the Spring, but a steady stream of inventory equal to purchasers. The best place to be is in a move-up, as buyers will find a greater gain on their more expensive home in spite of possibly losing a bit on the sale side. It seems that there are more foreclosures on the horizon with stable amounts of short sales, another way for a buyers to make immediate gains. Buyers will still dictate values, relative to condition and inventory. The mortgage guidelines have become stricter, so getting a pre-approval from a reputable lender is increasingly important. Sellers should request to see one immediately from a prospective buyer and buyers should be educated about the borrowing and the buying process.” –Realtor, Realty Executives, Framingham, “I have an above normal number of pre-approvals for January. I’m starting to see movement in the market. A lot of high-end buyers.” –Loan Officer, Citizens Bank, Route 128 Suburbs, “Brookline real estate should receive a spike upwards during the spring market like it always does. It looks like the economy has improved slightly which could also help the confidence of the buyers.” –Realtor, Coldwell Banker, Brookline “I see purchases up 40% for the year, and refinances down slightly.” –Loan Officer, Mortgage Network, Route 128 Suburbs “With 2011 now behind us, real estate agents and others related to the housing industry are hoping that 2012 will bring a significant improvement to the number of units sold and at least stabilization, if not an increase in the median sales price.” 2011 ended with a nice up-tick in sales according to the National Association of Realtors, however, sales remain depressed, as are several of the realtors I spoke with in the Metrowest and Central Massachusetts areas. Central Mass, in particular, seems to have borne the brunt of the home sales price reductions and sales lag. Unit sales within the Route 128 belt have held up nicely, although many homes have experienced a 5-10% appraised value drop, year over year. Interest rates have held steady at near record lows. While this is good news for first-time home-buyers and relocating workers, as home affordability is better than at any time in recent memory, many sellers are frustrated. As home prices continue to drop, more sellers are finding themselves with little or no equity in their homes. This not only makes them reluctant to price their home to market and sell quickly, for many of them, current rules on Loan to Value, are making them unable to take advantage of today’s low interest rates and refinance. So what will 2012 bring? A slight improvement in unit sales, and perhaps a bottom in home prices (I hope!). Here are my reasons for this conclusion: Job creation – Over the past several months, it appears that the job market is improving. The Massachusetts unemployment rate dropped to 6.8% in December. Continued Low Interest Rates – While we may see an increase in 30 year fixed rates during the next couple of months, as the national economy shows signs of improvement, I do not expect a dramatic rise in rates. Helping Underwater Homeowners – Homebuilder Sentiment – Nationally, homebuilding company optimism is making a strong recovery. Locally, several builders I have spoken with think 2012 will be their best year ever. Prices may be down, but in many cases so are cost of materials and labor. There are a few other reasons for optimism including an increase in household formation, as well as talk of programs to rent REO properties, which may help reduce vacant homes and stabilize prices. –Loan Officer, Greenpark Mortgage, Metrowest and Worcester County We have a lack of inventory in the greater Franklin area. More buyers and renters than properties on the market. A lot of sellers I talk to are waiting “until later in the year” to list. They need to get started on their preparations now because “later in the year” will be here before you know it! –Realtor, Hallmark Sotheby’s, Franklin/495 Area “I feel that the market will be very good for buyers and sellers this spring. Buyer can take advantage of the great rates and prices. It’s a great time to upgrade to a bigger and better home. It’s also a great time to buy an investment property since rents are on the way up. On the listing side we need more inventory since most of the homes on the market now are stale and overpriced. I’m a strong believer that if the home is priced well it will sell fast.” –Realtor, Keller Williams Realty __________________________________________ Marc E. Canner, Esq. is an experienced Massachusetts real estate attorney with offices in Needham and Bedford, Mass. He is a principal of TitleHub Closing Services LLC and the Law Offices of Marc E. Canner. { 5 comments } Appraisals, Assessments and Zestimates, Oh My! by Rich Vetstein on October 25, 2010 in Appraisals, Massachusetts Property Values, Realtors Welcome back Guest Blogger, Gabrielle Daniels Brennan, from Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, Sudbury, MA, Check out her fantastic blog, Living In Sudbury (www.liveinsudburyma.com). What Is Your Massachusetts Home Really Worth? OK folks, you want to know what your house is worth? Stop obsessing over your town assessment and online estimates. At the end of the day, your house is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. But while you follow the sale prices of your neighbor’s house and e-mail me to ask what your house is worth (sight unseen), I’ll explain to you that it is neither an exact science, a mathematical equation, or a guesstimate. So many factors go into the value of your house. In this case, perception is, for the most part – reality. The location, the condition, the square footage, the updates, the amenities, the lot, the neighborhood, the neighbors, proximity to school, the floorplan – and so much more. Size matters, but it’s not the only thing. It’s so easy to want to use the two words interchangeably, but please know that an assessment and an appraisal are totally different things. ASSESSMENTS: (Think – measurement rhymes with assessment) Assessments are based upon the town’s opinion of value of the land and the value of your house, based on the measured square footage and condition (excellent, very good, good, fair and poor). The square footage includes everything in the house – closets, hallways, two-story foyers, stairways, etc. So, although you may add up the square footage from each room, it’s not the same. The taxes you pay are based on your assessment. Years ago, houses were priced close to, or above, their assessed value. If a house were priced below the assessment, it was featured as a fabulous thing. Priced WAY BELOW assessment, translated, meant: “Don’t forget your checkbook as you’re running like a madman to the open house.” These days, assessments may be in the general vicinity of the asking price. Not a lot of weight is placed on the assessed value as it compares to the true market value. Most are priced around the assessed value, especially if they sold in the past 10 years. The assessor’s office does not take into account all of the items within a house that a buyer perceives as valuable (age of systems, paint vs. 1970s wallpaper, neighborhood full of kids the same age, master bathroom rivaling the one at the Four Seasons in Nevis, etc.) Just the square footage, value of the land and the town’s rating of the neighborhood. APPRAISALS: An appraisal is a valuation made mathematically by a real estate appraiser for the purposes of providing security to the lending institution. The bank wants to be sure that the money it is loaning – for a refinance, home equity loan, line of credit or a purchase – can be recouped in today’s market if the owner defaults on the loan. Essentially, they need to know that they would not have a problem selling the house for the amount borrowed. The appraiser formulates his/her appraisal based on the sale prices of the houses nearby that would be comparable for the square footage, the amenities, and the condition. In some towns, it’s not necessarily apples to apples, because a house down the street may have been foreclosed upon, thus skewing the value of the subject property. Appraisals used to be more of a formality, and now they are extremely strict. As a result of the mortgage debacle, banks have cracked down and the rules have changed. Banks used to be able to communicate with the appraisers – now they have been prohibited from having direct communication. If you have recently refinanced and your appraisal came in at one price, it doesn’t necessarily mean that that price is what you would get from a buyer if your house went on the market. ZESTIMATES: I think Zillow is an entertaining and somewhat informative website. It is a great site to search for homes and to take advantage of all of the interactive features. The “Zestimate” is Zillow.com’s term for “estimate of the value of your house.” For houses in Middlesex County, Zillow states that its accuracy is 99 % of the homes in Middlesex County that are on Zillow. Ninety-nine percent of homes in Sudbury are on Zillow. Ninety-nine percent of those have “Zestimates.” Of that 99%, only 32% sold within 5% of their Zestimate. Fifty-eight percent sold within 10% of its Zestimate and 82% sold within 20% of its Zestimate. Median error is 8.3%. Dizzy? This means that if your Zestimate is $800,000, your sale price may be closer to $640,000 or $960,000. It’s a pretty big spread! So, fun site – yes. Accurate – not really. Why? The information pulled by Zillow is information that is available online – and if one piece of data is incorrect (it happens all the time) then everything is skewed. Zillow does not know what streets are busy, what houses have just updated their kitchen and bathrooms, furnaces, roofs, etc. Zillow also does not know the motivation of sellers. So, if your neighbors won the lottery and just wanted to sell the house so they could sail around the world and sold for about $50K less than they could have – according to Zillow, your house just went down $50K, also. Unless he or she has a really good sense of humor, please don’t tell your real estate agent that you disagree with his/her extensive analysis because your “Zestimate” states “X.” It would be like telling Todd English that you know how to make his signature dish because you just Googled the recipe. So, enjoy the site, have fun searching, reading the real estate news, etc., but don’t get excited or freak out because of your Zestimate. It will likely change the next time you log on. COMPARATIVE MARKET ANALYSIS: This is the best, and most accurate, way to know the value of your house. A comparative market analysis is written by a real estate agent. It would best completed by an agent who knows the market, knows each house that your’s would be compared to, and has his/her hand on the pulse of the buyers. A real estate agent preparing the market analysis should take into account everything about your house – the square footage, the condition, the style, the location, the demographic of the potential buyers, the market conditions, the intangibles, and the perceived value within the town. We then analyze the house in comparison with the houses that are on the market, have accepted offers, are under agreement and have sold (closed). A market analysis conducted today would not include sales from the spring as it was a different market. It’s also very important to have a sense of what comparables appraisers will use when appraising the house for the buyer’s mortgage company. So, assessments (pain in the assessment = taxes), appraisals (think = approximate), Zestimates (Zillow.com), market analysis (call me/real estate agent). { 0 comments } ← Previous Entries Find What You're Looking For Author Richard D. Vetstein, Esq. is a nationally recognized real estate attorney and past Chair of the Boston Bar Association's Title & Conveyancing Committee. For more information about him, click here. You can contact Attorney Vetstein at [email protected] or 508-620-5352. Follow Me More About Me… Contact Us Confidentially Name: Email: Subject: Your Message: 20 / 4 = Subscribe to our blog posts via email! 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0.999741	Galactic astronomy is the study of the Milky Way, a barred spiral galaxy containing several structural components. A barred bulge is in the central part extending out to 10 thousand light-years, which harbors a 4 million solar mass black hole in the center surrounded by a nuclear star cluster. Outside the bar, the thin disk extends from 10000 to 50000 light-years, and contains most of the stellar and gaseous mass and most of the star formation activity of the Galaxy. The thick disk harbors stars of intermediate ages and its origin is still debated. Around the disk is the halo, a roughly spherical structure extending much further than the disk, which contains very few stars but most of the mass of the Galaxy. The halo also contains about 200 globular clusters, which are bound systems of thousands of stars that are orbiting around the center of the Milky Way, and streams of stars that trace past mergers of dwarf galaxies with the Milky Way. The large mass of the halo is inferred from measurements of velocities of stars and gas; we do not know what this mass is made of, and we call it dark matter. Independent evidence for the existence of dark matter in the Universe comes to us from cosmology. [+] Our Galaxy is a rich laboratory to explore how galaxies form and evolve. The Cold Dark Matter cosmological theory predicts the formation of large galaxies through the merging of smaller ones. Linking the local solar neighborhood, open clusters, the disk and the halo of our Galaxy to the Universe beyond is the key to our understanding of galaxy evolution and the impact of mergers, from the epoch of the formation of the first stars to the present. Although observations of the most distant galaxies are fundamental to understand how galaxies formed, only our own Galaxy and a few nearby dwarf galaxies in the Local Group can be observed in sufficient detail to provide a fossil record that can unravel a complete formation history. Identifying and studying stellar streams can help determine the way the Galaxy has grown and its present components have come into place. Deciphering the assembly history of our Galaxy requires a detailed mapping of the structure, dynamics, chemical composition, and age distribution of its stellar populations. Ideally one would like to “tag” individual stars to each of the progenitor building blocks, and relate this to the accretion history. Extragalactic astronomy Extragalactic astronomy studies the structure and evolution of galaxies and the intergalactic medium beyond the Milky Way. This includes a large array of objects ranging from dwarf galaxies, quasars and clusters of galaxies, and spanning the last 13 billion years of the history of the Universe. Extragalactic astronomy is a fertile research ground where many branches of physics (high energy physics, cosmology, hydrodynamics, radiative processes...) converge.[+] One century after the discovery that our Universe is made of galaxies similar to the Milky Way, many questions on the formation and evolution of galaxies are still poorly understood and lead to research on the theoretical and observational sides. The galaxy formation process is a highly complex, non-linear phenomenon involving both gravity and hydrodynamics on a wide range of scales, and is greatly influenced by the impact of galaxy winds, ionization and radiative transfer. The confrontation of observations drawn from blind wide angle (all-sky) nearby galaxy surveys with detailed analytical models and high-resolution numerical simulations that mimic the hierarchical assembling of structure is an essential procedure to understand how galaxies form and evolve, as well as pinpoint the most essential driving factors and parameters able to explain the main body of galaxy properties. Much can also be learned from the study of the intergalactic medium over a broad range of redshifts, corresponding to the look-back time to past epochs. Absorption lines in quasar spectra allow us to study how the tenuous intergalactic gas collapsed and formed galaxies, and how heavy elements processed inside stars were expelled in supernovae and other stellar explosions to enrich the gas in galaxies with the atoms that are necessary for life. ICCUB Contribution Galactic astronomy Research in galactic astronomy at the ICCUB includes three main lines of research: galaxy modelling, the study of stellar constituents and stellar luminosity calibration. At present, this research is fully influenced by the scientific exploitation of the Gaia mission data, in which ICCUB researchers are deeply involved (see the GAIA Mission link for more information). [+] Understanding the Milky Way as a holistic system is one of the key challenges astrophysicists will face in the coming decade. ICCUB’s contribution to galaxy modeling is directed towards a better understanding of the origin and evolution of the large structures in the galactic disk —bar, spirals and warp— and the archaeology of the Milky Way —missing satellites—, through an in-depth investigation of the dynamics and chemistry of the system. This field of research is being revolutionized thanks to the recently published Gaia Data Release 2 (and the future releases) with precise astrometry and photometry for more than 1 billion stars. First results can be found at the science verification papers of Gaia data release 2 here. On the other hand, the study of the stellar constituents of the Galactic disk and halo focuses on two central aspects: 1) where do the stars form and 2)what are their astrophysical properties. The Gaia mission provides us with a detailed interpretation of the phase space data in terms of specific events that have shaped the Milky Way. ICCUB’s contribution is organized around two central goals: a) to provide new insights into the popular scenario that all stars have formed in clusters, i.e. to investigate cluster formation and evolution (our analysis of the DR2 data has already led to a significant revision of our knowledge of galactic clusters, with additions and removals to the list of known clusters), and b) to capitalize on the opportunities that Gaia brings to the study of variable stars’ data. ICCUB is also involved in spectroscopic surveys from ground --as Gaia-ESO and WEAVE-- to acquire complementary data for Gaia stars. The Gaia satellite will have a dramatic impact on the definition of the cosmic distance scale, providing the direct measurement, via parallaxes, of the local primary distance indicators and, in turn, a direct re-calibration of the secondary distance indicators. This will significantly improve our estimate of the Hubble constant. At the same time Gaia will offer a unique opportunity to assess the systematics affecting the various indicators contributing to the cosmic distance scale as well as to establish new standard candles. ICCUB is working on stellar luminosity calibration in order to develop the necessary tools to achieve these goals. Extragalactic astronomy ICCUB’s interest in galactic astrophysics extends beyond the Milky Way and is concerned, too, with the formation of the first galaxies, which were formed from pristine matter. They comprised population III stars, which reionised the intergalactic medium, polluted it with metals and left behind the seeds of SMBHs. These are processes currently being modeled at ICCUB. [+] Detailed analytical models and huge numerical simulations are being developed, which make use of the most powerful computational tools presently available. The resulting predictions are confronted with the latest, progressively complete, observations drawn from huge wide angle (all-sky) nearby galaxy surveys (e.g. SDSS, 2dF) as well as very deep, high-redshift, ones (e.g. Hubble Deep Field, GROTH, DEEP2), carried out by means of the new generation of very large ground-based telescopes and sophisticated detectors on board of satellites covering the whole electromagnetic spectrum, from gamma to radio wavelengths. One of the best methods to probe the intergalactic matter out of which galaxies form is through absorption spectra, where we measure the spectrum of light absorbed by intervening matter from a distant luminous source (usually a quasar, or massive black hole accreting matter and emitting a prodigiously bright light). Using these observations, we have studied the distribution of matter in space and of the clouds of gas called Damped Lyman Alpha systems, to relate them to galaxies of different masses in the process of formation.
0.99996	Who won the Civil War anyway? We have a president from Arkansas and a vice-president from Tennessee. The House was recently run by a Georgian, and the president pro tem of the Senate is South Carolinian. Everywhere you turn in Washington, you find a Southerner, and no matter whether you're left or right, sane or Perot, moose or squirrel, you can always find a Southerner to blame for the country's problems. With Southerners one, two and three heartbeats away from the president, it would take more than a few potshots at the White House to put the Northerner back in charge. It would take an entire alternate history. To get a feel for the presidential politics of alternate history, we can study election statistics to determine which Southerner did best in the southern primaries (and which Northerner did best in the north). After giving this man his party's nomination, we can then look at which party did best in each section during the general election. So let's start in 1963; Martin Luther King stands under the Washington Monument in the nation's capitol, addressing a crowd of countrymen who have come to commemorate the anniversary of the abolition of slavery. He declares that he has a dream etc., until the police break into the crowd with clubs and attack dogs. They beat King senseless and dump him in the city jail for sedition, because this is a country that doesn't have to put up with that sort of crap. The capitol is Richmond; the country is the Confederate States, and the anniversary was the fiftieth, because the South won the Civil War, and slavery wasn't abolished here until 1913: The Union The Confederacy The 1964 election passed quietly in the United States. In fact, President Kennedy (who had never even visited the Confederate city of Dallas) was so popular that the Republicans hardly bothered to oppose him. Instead they offered Barry Goldwater as a ritual sacrifice to be buried alive under the nation's biggest landslide ever (405 electoral votes to 5). Kennedy's popularity made the Sixties an idyllic era of wholesome tranquility unparalleled in Yankee history. The crusade against communism in Vietnam gave the Union a high moral purpose; black people living north of the Potomac had enjoyed equal rights for almost a hundred years. Even today, the Sixties are considered the golden age of the United States, as we can see in the whimsical Oliver Stone farce, Born on the Fourth of July, where a returning war hero sets out on a wacky roadtrip, hoping to be in Washington for his nation's birthday. In 1968, the Kennedy Dynasty was poised to continue under brother Bobby, until an assassin in California put an end to the dream. (Oliver Stone's cozy and sentimental RFK, reassures us that the "lone nut" theory is the only plausible scenario.) The Democratic nomination therefore went to the jolly veep, Hubert Humphrey, at the peaceful and completely routine Chicago convention. However, the strict gun control laws passed by Congress in the wake of Robert Kennedy's assassination -- and the socialized medicine passed as part of the New Frontier -- angered enough Yankee conservatives to give a narrow presidential victory (244 E-votes to 166) to the perennially sinister Richard Nixon. As time passed, Nixon became increasingly unpopular. In the post-coital depression that followed the Kennedy era, the Union came to realize that the war in Vietnam was an endless quagmire. The men and money being shovelled into Southeast Asia were disappearing down an enormous rathole, with all the blame being dumped on the chief rat himself, Richard Nixon. Not one to go down without a fight, Nixon engineered a stunning reelection over George McGovern (390 to 17); however, when Nixon's reelection tactics became public in the Watergate scandal, his presidency shrieked and crumbled to dust faster than a vampire at sunrise. He resigned in favor of his vice-president, Gerald Ford, who took advantage of the public sigh of relief that Nixon was finally gone to narrowly defeat Jerry Brown in 1976. (228 to 179) The Ford years passed well enough. No volcanic rifts opened and sucked large cities into the Earth's core or anything like that. When the Iranians seized the U.S. Embassy, Ford sent the Marines into Tehran and rescued them, or at least the ones who weren't accidentally killed in the rescue. When his second term expired, Ford retired to California to practice not hitting squirrels with golf balls. The 1980 election saw the Democrats attempting to restore the Kennedy dynasty, this time with brother Ted, but with a trail of soggy women behind him, Kennedy was easily trounced by the beloved former actor, Ronald Reagan (370 to 37). Reagan was a fanatic opponent of government involvement in national affairs, so this makes it easy to remember the major accomplishments of his administration: none. The government shut down and stopped its nitpicking regulation of banks, airlines, Wall Street and the oil industry, so the most notable events of the Eighties were produced by the private sector: bank failures, plane wrecks, stock swindles and oil spills. Even foreign policy was turned into a private enterprise operation, with Colonel Oliver North selling guns from the White House basement to the Confederate Army in Nicaragua. When he was caught, North skipped the country with a suitcase full of money and was elected to the Confederate Senate from his new home in Virginia. Although most people don't remember this, there was a presidential election in 1984. It featured a long, tight, down-to-the-wire primary race in which two Democrats, Gary Hart and Walter Mondale, fought each other for the honor of being humiliated when Reagan was re-elected by a landslide in 1984. The election that people do remember occurred in 1988 between two Massachusetts men, George Bush and Michael Dukakis, easily the two dullest humans ever to hit the campaign trail. It was one of the cleanest, most thoughtful elections of the modern era (probably because Lee Atwater was a Confederate, working to elect Pat Robertson), and the Republican Bush was elected with 496 electoral votes to 111. The high point of the Bush years was, of course, the Gulf War, in which an American led coalition chased Iraqi invaders out of Kuwait. For a brief moment, Bush was being hailed as a new Roosevelt -- Teddy or Franklin -- it didn't matter -- the U.S. finally had a President that wasn't going to be pushed around by second-rate bullies. Then the Soviet Union disappeared, and Bush was Washington, Napoleon and God all rolled into one. In a couple of years, however, the economy turned sluggish, and Bush was rapidly being cast as another Herbert Hoover. In fact, public opinion polls showed that Bush could easily be the first US President to be denied reelection since the aforementioned Hoover. Even when the Democrats scrounged yet another terminally dull Massachusetts Greek, Paul Tsongas, to be the party's standard-bearer -- even that wasn't enough to save Bush's bacon, and he was soundly thrashed, 370 electoral votes to 168. So, in January of 1993, the world's last remaining superpower got its first Democratic president in 26 years: Paul Tsongas. And in January of 1997, the United States got its first president to die in office since Roosevelt, when Tsongas succumbed mere days short of the end of his first term. His vice-president, Dick Gephardt of Missouri, was quickly sworn into office, while the electoral college hastily reconvened to pick another winner of the 1996 presidential election. They passed the mantle to Dick Gephardt, and Chief Justice Renquist crossed "Tsongas" out of the oath of office, and scribbled in "Gephardt" instead. A new era of Confederate politics began when Lyndon Johnson was elected president in 1964 (81 electoral Votes to 47). It had been a tough race; Johnson had carried his own state by only 3,000 votes -- even though there were more votes in the ballot boxes than there were people on the planet, so okay, maybe it wasn't entirely a new era, but you get the drift. A Democrat like every Confederate president before him, Johnson inherited a troubled nation with the lowest per capita teeth in North America. Shunned abroad for its segregationist policies, racked by race riots and bogged down fighting a communist insurrection under Castro in Cuba (a conquered territory since the Spanish-Confederate War of 1898), the Confederacy needed a major overhaul, and Johnson took it on himself to drag the country into the 20th Century. He released hundreds of political prisoners and bullied Congress into passing the Voting Rights Act, which gave full citizenship to the nation's blacks. The Sixties were a turbulent era for the Confederacy. The hard, emotional upheaval in music begun by Elvis Presley continued when Florida-born Jim Morrison and Texas-born Janis Joplin introduced a mystically poetic style of country and western to the Grand Ole Opry. President Johnson was reviled for the liberation of the blacks and the loss of Cuba, while the 1968 murder of Martin Luther King in Memphis provoked riots that killed hundreds. As Johnson's troubled six-year term came to an end, the conservative wing of the Democratic Party split off in anger. Meeting in Miami, they joined the Whigs (the feeble opposition party for the past hundred years; the Confederacy had outlawed the Republican Party of Lincoln right from the start.) to form the new American party, which nominated Governor George Wallace of Alabama. Having endeared himself to the nation when he had used the Alabama state militia to chase all federal judges from state (perfectly legal under the C.S. Constitution), Wallace won the 1970 presidential election with a promise to return to the good old days. He easily beat Terry Sanford of North Carolina, 103 E-votes to 25, and then had him arrested as a communist. Under the Confederate Constitution, President Wallace could not run for reelection in 1976, even though he was still in fine health after not being shot while campaigning in Laurel, Maryland, which was outside the Confederacy so he didn't even go there. The American party therefore chose the sporadically indicted John Connally of Texas to lead the ticket. The Democratic Party, however, had rebuilt itself on the promise of not rocking the boat anymore, which brought victory to its candidate, the painfully decent (and therefore doomed) Jimmy Carter (118 to 12). After only a couple of weeks, the Confederates were sick of the Wile E. Coyote efficiency of the Carter Administration, but their Constitution guaranteed him a full six years so there was nothing short of armed rebellion that they could do about it. Armed rebellion, however, hit one outpost of the Confederacy when Nicaragua (A C.S. protectorate since 1912) fell to the communists. Carter gave the new Sandanista government his immediate and unconditional blessing on the theory that the people of Nicaragua had spoken, or at least the people of Nicaragua with guns, so there wasn't anything he could do about it, except maybe invade, but nobody wanted another Cuba, did they? In 1982, when Confederate voters finally got their chance to answer yes, they dumped the Democrats and elected the American Party candidate, Howard Baker of Tennessee. (118 to 12) Confederate troops landed in Nicaragua within the month. The question of what to do about Miami plagued the Baker years. Miami was a zit on the nose of the Floridian Peninsula, crammed with drug smugglers, gun runners, mercenaries, and refugees from every Caribbean bloodbath. The whole of South Florida became a poisoned zone of desolation as the Everglades were methodically drained and paved. An annoyed Mother Nature therefore retaliated and slammed a string of hurricanes into the city during the opening festivities of Tourist Killing Season, sweeping the revelers out to sea. In 1988, the Confederacy saw a hard fight in the Democratic primaries between Jesse Jackson of North Carolina and Al Gore of Tennessee. With twenty-two years of practice behind them, the black voters of the Confederacy were ready to reach for the top slot, and Jackson squeaked into the party's nomination, which of course guaranteed victory for the Virginia televangelist, Pat Robertson, who became the 21st president of the CSA after an easy electoral shutout. (130 to 0) The Robertson years were quiet. Since the Confederacy already funded religious schools and outlawed abortion and gaiety, there really wasn't a whole lot for Robertson to do. He passed the time by having Jesse Jackson burned for heresy and Chuck Robb stoned for adultery, but aside from that, nothing changed. African-Confederates were placated, however, by seeing one of their own appointed to the Supreme Court (Clarence Thomas of Georgia). The Confederacy had always depended on the nuclear umbrella of its northern neighbor to protect it from godless Communism, but with the fall of the the Soviet Union in 1991, the Confederate leadership realized that their former partner/ancient rival to the north now had a monopoly on superpowerdom. Paranoid that the USA could now do as it pleased -- including launch a southward war of reconquest -- the Confederate research facility at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, embarked on a crash program of weapons development. In the last year of the Robertson administration, the Confederacy tested its first atomic weapons in the Texas badlands, and Southrons felt much safer. In 1994, the American Party continued its hold on the Confederacy when the team of Newt "The Lizard King" Gingrich and Jesse Helms was elected over the Democratic team of Bill Clinton and Al Gore (108 to 39), after stories of Clinton's womanizing surfaced. Then, in 1999, Gingrich was impeached for womanizing, so the electorate felt pretty silly. So, curiously, both nations approach the 2000 elections with presidents who were not specifically elected to their offices. In fact, the president of the United States is from a state which the Confederacy has always considered its 13th Star, an illegally occupied slice of the true South, so with President Helms rattling the saber for the reclamation of Missouri, and President Gephardt wanting to close the US border to the cheap labor of Dixie, both nations approach the twightlight of the millennium with gathering war clouds.
0.996372	Friday’s article was titled “Both gold and silver sustained major technical chart damage in trading today”. The major selloff that began on Friday continued as gold trading reopened on Monday morning (Sunday in Hawaii and the mainland) trading to a low of $1677.90, before slightly recovering from that dramatic low closing $68 off of the low. As of 5:04 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active December 2021 Comex contract is currently off by $31.50 and fixed at $1731.60. Gold opened just $0.70 from the high of the day which was $1765 and had a virtual meltdown trading down $88 when it hit the low of $1677.90. Gold opened at $1805 on Friday and closed near its low of $1763.40 (Friday’s low was $1760) gold dropped $127.10 from Friday’s open to a low today. The major damage created today occurred in Asia and as MarketWatch put it, “There was a “flash crash” in gold as prices briefly sank to as low as $1,684 an ounce in early Asian trading before recovering to about $1,732.30 down nearly 3% from last week’s price.” The Dow Jones estimate was that July would bring an additional 845,000 new jobs last month, with the actual number coming in at a robust 943,000 jobs added. Economists also forecasted that the unemployment rate would move from 5.7% to 5.5%, with the actual numbers coming in at 5.4%. The economic recovery in the United States has come a long way considering that the unemployment rate at the high of the pandemic was at 14.8%. Although the current unemployment rate of 5.4% is still above the pre-pandemic number of 3.5%, these numbers most certainly indicate a rapid economic recovery. CNBC reported on Friday that, “Hiring rose in July at its fastest pace in nearly a year despite fears over Covid-19′s delta variant and as companies struggled with a tight labor supply, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 943,000 for the month while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%, according to the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. The payroll increase was the best since August 2020.” Add to these stellar numbers average hourly earnings also increased more than expected and rose 0.4% for the month and are up 4% from the same period a year ago. While gold sold off steeply on Friday U.S. equities reacted extremely positively to the report and both the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 getting new record highs at the open of trading on Friday. Almost every metric relating to employment in the United States showed strong gains with the labor force participation rate ticking up to 61.7%. This is the highest level since March 2020, the official beginning of the global pandemic. According to Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, “This not only was the jobs report strong by nearly every measure, but it also signals more good things to come,”. One of the major differences between the tepid ADP report released on Wednesday, August 4, and the Labor Department’s nonfarm payroll report released on Friday was an extremely strong gain in new education hires of 261,000 new hires. Since the ADP report does not cover government employees this partially accounted for the huge differences in the numbers reported by ADP and the Labor Department. Although the low in gold today matched the double bottom that occurred at the beginning and end of March 2021, and the $68 recovery off of the intraday low is respectable, many analysts are under the impression that there could be more downside ahead. This was reported by a regular contributor to MarketWatch, Mark Hulbert who reported that there is still not enough gloom to even trigger a contrary and by signal. The reason there is no contrary buy signal is that current market sentiment is not sufficiently pessimistic. And drawn from an average, “of gold market timers’ average recommended gold exposure level (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average currently stands at minus 4.8%, which means that the average timer is allocating a small portion of his gold trading portfolio to going short. Past contrarian gold signals have come when the HGNSI was even lower.” Lastly, one interesting component of today’s dynamic range is although the low matched the double bottom in March 2021 it closed at the 78% Fibonacci retracement which was created from a data set beginning at the double bottom at $1677, up to the recent highs at $1920. Whether it was short covering or traders buying the dip which move gold off of its lows is an unknown although it would seem more likely a direct component of traders taking profits on short positions. For more information on our service, simply use this link. Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health, Gary Wagner Posted on August 9, 2021 Author Gary S.WagnerCategories ForecastsTags Commodities, Daily, Gold, Ignore, Technical
0.99989	Our live radio broadcasts are currently on hiatus while we work on improvements to Sanitarium.FM's core services. For further information, visit our Discord. Home • News • Schedule • Your Sanitarium.FM Account Register Username Password Remember me I forgot my password Follow @SanitariumFM Support The Sanitarium.FM! Or donate to us via PayPal: Donation Amount: GBP – £ USD – $ EUR – € ------- AUD – $ CAD – $ CHF – CZK – Kc DKK – kr EUR – € HKD – HK$ HUF – Ft GBP – £ JPY – ¥ NZD – NZ$ NOK – kr PLN – zl SGD – S$ SEK – kr USD – $ S.FM on Minecraft! Status: Offline Host: sanitarium.fm Port: 25565 Sanitarium.FM, The Internet Gamer radio station. Sanitarium.FM Site Search: Or click here to search the Forum. Spotify Rolling Out New Privacy Policy That’s Anything But Wow, Spotify. How and why does a service mainly geared around music streaming become one of the most intrusive around? With the latest Spotify update, there’s a new privacy policy going into effect – and the TL;DR version is that if you’re at all concerned about data privacy, now may well be the time to jump ship, because this new policy definitely isn’t. Here are just some examples of the type of snooping Spotify wants to get up to with the latest policy: Use Spotify on your mobile? Hope you’re okay with sharing your Contacts, Photos and Media… With your permission, we may collect information stored on your mobile device, such as contacts, photos, or media files. Local law may require that you seek the consent of your contacts to provide their personal information to Spotify, which may use that information for the purposes specified in this Privacy Policy. Tracking Your Location Depending on the type of device that you use to interact with the Service and your settings, we may also collect information about your location based on, for example, your phone’s GPS location or other forms of locating mobile devices (e.g., Bluetooth). We may also collect sensor data (e.g., data about the speed of your movements, such as whether you are running, walking, or in transit). Third party services – well, at least you can disconnect Facebook… You may integrate your Spotify account with Third Party Applications. If you do, we may receive similar information related to your interactions with the Service on the Third Party Application, as well as information about your publicly available activity on the Third Party Application. This includes, for example, your “Like”s and posts on Facebook. (To be fair, this is really only saying that Spotify will do what anyone on Facebook can do anyway – look at the things you’ve posted publicly; as well as anything related to Spotify itself. If you’ve integrated your Spotify with Facebook, you pretty much already accepted this was going to happen anyway; but if you find it creepy, you might want to disconnect Facebook from Spotify via your Preferences) Storing (and Sharing!) Your Credit Card Information If you sign up for a Trial (as defined in the Terms and Conditions of Use), purchase any of our Paid Subscriptions (as defined in the Terms and Conditions of Use), or make other purchases through the Service, your credit or debit card information (such as card type and expiration date) and other financial data that we need to process your payment may be collected and stored by us and/or the payment processors with which we work. We may also collect some limited information, such as your postal code, mobile number, and details of your transaction history, all of which are necessary to provide the Service. Spotify claim that they collect personal data from users primarily to improve the overall experience for people using the service; but it’s clear that not all of the data being gathered is to benefit the service itself. Indeed, if you look more closely at the paragraphs explaining how they intend to use the data, the real purpose becomes clear – advertising: We may use the information we collect, including your personal information….to provide, personalise, and improve your experience with the Service and products, services, and advertising (including for third party products and services) made available on or outside the Service (including on other sites that you visit), for example by providing customised, personalised, or localised content, recommendations, features, and advertising on or outside of the Service So, if you love music but also love privacy, maybe it’s time to ditch Spotify and look for a new streaming service instead. Or maybe consider a medium curated not just by bots (friendly as they are), but also by real-life DJs who care and which broadcasts a schedule of live shows that let you influence exactly what you want to hear? If that sounds good, you’re already in the right place 😉 August 21st, 2015 by CrimsonShade This entry was posted on Friday, August 21st, 2015 at 13:32 and is filed under General, Music, Technology. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.
0.948347	Like most film genres, the spy film developed from a literary tradition. This can be dated to the first of the future war stories, G.T. Chesney 's 'The Battle of Dorking' (1871), describing a surprise Franco-Russian invasion of Britain. So successful was the story (selling over 80,000 copies) that it spawned a series of similar fictional accounts. However, the first real spy story was probably William Le Queux 's serial, 'The Great War in 1897' (published in book form in 1894). The serial outlined a French attack on Britain masterminded by a Russian spy. Other authors followed suit: Rudyard Kipling 's 'Kim' (1901), about Russian advances in India; Erskine Childers ' 'Riddle of the Sands' (1904) - filmed in 1978 - imagining a German invasion attempt, and Joseph Conrad 's anarchists tale, 'The Secret Agent' (1907) - filmed as Sabotage (d. Alfred Hitchcock, 1936). So popular was this sensationalist literature that The Times newspaper described it as "...[a] class of literature that is rapidly becoming a nuisance." Indeed, questions were asked in Parliament, and various factions, such as those advocating naval and military reform, seized on the books as an example of Britain's unpreparedness for invasion. Le Queux , and other authors, continued to feed the public's imagination for sensational spy stories. His most successful book, 'The Invasion of 1910' (published in 1906), sold over 1 million copies and is probably the inspiration for the film The Invaders (d. Percy Stow, 1909). Such scare stories were not confined to print. The play 'An Englishman's Home' ran for eighteen months from January 1909 and was filmed in 1914. Although the nationality of the invaders was not mentioned, the ruler was coyly referred to as the 'Emperor of the North', and the spiked helmets worn by the soldiers gave the game away. So successful was the play that a recruiting office for the new Territorial Army was set up in the foyer. The genre increasingly reflected the international situation. At first, the enemy was France or Russia, but over time these were gradually displaced by Germany. Britain was at the height of its imperial power, Queen Victoria had enjoyed a hugely successful jubilee in 1897 and the government followed an international policy of 'Splendid Isolation', largely due to Britain's superiority. However, growing colonial rivalries and developments within Europe led to a gradual retreat from this policy. The near-defeat in the Boer War (1899-1902) and the increasing rivalry with Germany (for colonies, industrial strength and naval developments) led to Britain developing alliances with Japan (1902), France (1904) and Russia (1907). The German naval build-up proved a stumbling block to reconciliation with Britain. The Royal Navy was seen as the defender of Britain and her empire, and any attempt to outdo its numerical or technological advantage was seen as a threat. Britain was to develop a new breed of battleship - HMS Dreadnought - and in 1909 there was a public outcry when fewer battleships were expected to be built. Many of the spy films would feature the Royal Navy, its personnel, weapons or codes; indeed two of the main spy heroes were naval officers (as was their successor, James Bond ). This naval race led to widespread Anti-German feeling, and The Daily Mail newspaper offered the following advice: "Refuse to be served by an Austrian or German waiter. If your waiter says he is Swiss, ask to see his passport!" A series of newspaper articles appeared which seemed to support the fictional accounts of a Britain overrun by spies. Claims that an army of German spies masquerading as waiters and often working near naval bases or ports were printed in newspapers and widely circulated. Estimates ranged from 50,000 to a highly improbable military claim that 350,000 such spies were in Britain. The clamour for government action led to the establishment, in 1909, of MI5, whose brief to monitor espionage in Britain successfully resulted in the rounding up of all German spies on the eve of the war. However, the hidden army failed to materialise. The anti-German feeling was a manifestation of Britain's increasing xenophobia. The Russian pogroms on Jews had led to large-scale immigration of eastern European Jews into Britain's urban centres. Widespread public alarm at this alien immigration led to the Aliens Act 1905, requiring all aliens to register while in Britain. Two films, The Alien Question and The Alien Invasion (both 1905), highlighted the plight of British workers being forced out of their employment by cheaper foreign (often Jewish) labour. The Invaders features foreign soldiers disguised as Jewish tailors preying on the fear of the alien. Aliens were often seen as anarchists, and anarchists, in turn, as spies. Films frequently depicted anarchists as beard-wearing members of secret societies out to destroy Britain. Anarchy was associated with violent acts of terrorism, and there had been a number of high-profile assassination attempts (notably American president William McKinley in 1901). Britain itself had experienced the 1911 Sidney Street siege , in which anarchists fought off the police and army. Thus was laid the foundations for the development of the spy genre: popular literature, fear of invasion, xenophobia and a stereotyped enemy. The first spy films were merely re-enactments of real events from the Boer war and later the Russo-Japanese War (1904). However, the invasion literature, newspaper articles and increasing international tension led to a flourishing of spy films. From 1909 there was a gradual build-up in their production to a high point in 1914-15, when around 30 such films were made. This peak reflected the outbreak of World War I and the genuine threat of invasion. As the war progressed, the films' popularity waned, possibly as a result of the continuing war and its hardships. The genre lay largely dormant in the postwar years, to revive somewhat with the rise of Nazism and its new threat to the British way of life.
0.999305	Transistors are electronic components. A transistor is a semiconductor device used to amplify and switch electronic signals and electrical power similar to a vacuum tube. It is composed of semiconductor material with at least three terminals for connection to an external circuit. A transistor can control its output in proportion to the input signal. Because the controlled (output) power can be higher than the controlling (input) power, a transistor can amplify a signal. The essential usefulness of a transistor for computers comes from its ability to turn current on or off in a circuit as an electrically controlled switch, where the amount of current is determined by other circuit elements. Transistors are commonly used as electronic switches, both for high-power applications such as switched-mode power supplies and for low-power applications such as logic gates. In any switching circuit, values of input voltage would be chosen such that the output is either completely off, or completely on. The transistor is acting as a switch, and this type of operation is common in digital circuits where only "on" and "off" values are relevant. Following its development in the early 1950s, the transistor revolutionized the field of electronics, and paved the way for smaller and cheaper radios, calculators, and computers, among other things. The transistor is the key active component in practically all modern electronic devices. Its importance in today's society rests on its ability to be mass produced using a highly automated process that achieves astonishingly low per-transistor costs. Although several companies each produce over a billion individually packaged (known as discrete) transistors every year, the vast majority of transistors now are produced in integrated circuits (often shortened to IC, microchips or simply chips), along with diodes, resistors, capacitors and other electronic components, to produce complete electronic circuits. The transistor's low cost, flexibility, and reliability have made it a ubiquitous in modern electronic devices such as computers. In most applications transistors have replaced vacuum tubes. Electronic logic gates can be build with transistors. A transistor logic gate consists of about twenty transistors whereas an advanced microprocessor employed in modern computers can use as many as 3 billion transistors. The Z23 was the first computer developed by Konrad Zuse's company that utilized transistors and all following computer models such as the Z31 used this technology. Supplement: Transistorized mechatronic circuits have replaced electromechanical devices in controlling appliances and machinery. It is often easier and cheaper to use a standard microcontroller and write a computer program to carry out a control function than to design an equivalent mechanical control function.
0.988564	This article is a little different than most of the “52 reasons articles” because it includes tips and Viking Cruise memories from three of the most important people in my world; my husband, sister, and mother who have each joined me on a Viking River Cruise ship. I also reached out to three bloggers I met while cruising on the Rhine River Christmas Cruise and two additional friends of mine who have sailed with Viking who are also travel writers to get their top tips for choosing Viking River Cruises in 2021. Why choose Viking River Cruises in 2021? How about 52 reasons to take a Viking Cruise! Some of these friends and family have one Viking Cruise under their belt and some have up to nine cruise experiences with Viking. I couldn’t think of a better group of people to share why the Viking experience is so special. If you are contemplating a Viking River or Ocean cruise, I hope the below tips shed some light on what makes the Viking experience so spectacular. If you are trying to decide which river cruise to take, I’ve got an article for that too: How to Choose the Right Viking Cruise! Viking River Cruises 2021 Update: All of Viking’s sailings are currently available exclusively for vaccinated guests, until further notice. All passengers and crew are required to be vaccinated to sail on Viking’s Welcome Back sailings — both ocean and river. Proof of vaccination will be required. Effective for departures through December 31, 2021, Viking will require all guests to take a COVID-19 PCR test within 72 hours prior to boarding their first outbound flight from their home country. Click here for more information on the Viking Health and Safety program. Chairman of Viking, Torstein Hagen recently shared that 45 of its 78 river ships are sailing again as are all of its six ocean ships. He also shared that they have a UVC robot that goes through the public spaces of the ship at night to disinfect surfaces. In addition, staff conduct testing of the handrails and elevator buttons regularly to make sure they have been thoroughly cleaned on a daily basis, too. TABLE OF CONTENTS show My Viking River Experiences 52 Reasons to Book Viking River Cruises 2021 1. Sailing with Family (or Friends) 2. Meeting Other Cruisers 3. Breakfast 4. Daily Briefing 5. Visiting New Towns That Weren’t on My Radar 6. Colmar, France on the Rhine River Cruise 7. Český Krumlov in the Czech Republic 8. Veliko Tarnovo in Bulgaria 9. Home Visit Tours 10. Day at Sea 11. Locks 12. Welcome Back after Excursions 13. The Booking Process 14. The Size of the Ship 15. The Christmas Markets 16. The Viking Staff 17. The Rhine Route 18. It’s a different experience than any other type of travel 19. The food and services are the best there are 20. You get to travel to 4 or 5 special locations in one trip 21. Cost and upsell: it’s reasonable and the upsell is not a focus 22. Staff and people aboard 23. Complimentary Shore Excursions 24. Crew and staff 25. Social Environment 26. The lighting in the corridors 27. Soft music in the corridors 28. World-Class Amenities 29. Ship Staff 30. Exclusive Excursions 31. Quality Clientele 32. Exotic Destinations 33. Unpack Once 34. Water Travel 35. Excellent Variety Food 36. Viking Takes Care of all the Details 37. The Tour Guides 38. The Crew 39. European Christmas Markets 40. Affordable Luxury Travel 41. Cuisine on a Viking River Cruise 42. Viking River Cruise shore excursions 43. Their small ships with small groups of people. 44. The beautiful, cozy staterooms. 45. The variety of travel options. 46. The amount of time spent at each port. 47. Viking offers the best way to experience Europe’s Christmas markets. 48. The Quality of the Ships 49. The Fabulous Crew! 50. The Delicious Food 51. The Ship Experience 52. Memorable Excursions on One of My Viking Cruises Helpful Links for More Viking Cruises Information My Viking River Experiences The first Viking River Cruise I took was the Rhine Christmas Market Cruise with my sister. We did the Basel, Switzerland to Amsterdam, Netherlands route with stops in Breisach, Heidelberg, Koblenz, Cologne (all in Germany), Strasbourg (France,) and Kinderdijk (Netherlands). My second Viking Cruise was with my husband, Todd and we sailed on the 8-day Danube Waltz Cruise with stops in Passau (Germany), Linz, Melk, Vienna (Austria), Bratislava (Slovakia), and Budapest (Hungary). My third cruise was with my mom, Penny and we sailed on the 11 -day Passage to Eastern Europe Viking Danube Cruise. This cruise began in Budapest, Hungary and ended in Bucharest, Romania with visits to Veliko Tarnovo, Arbanasi, Vidin (Bulgaria), Golubac, and Belgrade (Serbia), Osijek (Croatia), and Kalocsa (Hungary). 52 Reasons to Book Viking River Cruises 2021 With three Viking River Cruises under my belt, I thought it was high time to share why this is one of my favorite companies to travel with. To start the list, here are my favorite things about sailing with Viking which will be followed by top things my friends, family, and fellow travel writers love about a Viking Cruise. 1. Sailing with Family (or Friends) My absolute favorite thing about Viking River Cruises is sharing the unique experience with my sister, husband, and mom. Each cruise was so different and I have cherished memories from each. 2. Meeting Other Cruisers Every one of the Viking Cruises I have taken has resulted in meeting new friends. I mean actual new friends that I have stayed in contact with after the cruise was over. 3. Breakfast While all the food is great onboard, breakfast is the meal that I absolutely love on the Viking ships. From made-to-order omelets to fresh fruit and especially the lox with cream cheese, onion, capers and lemon it’s scrumptious. 4. Daily Briefing Every evening before dinner, in the lounge is an overview of the next day that includes an overview of the tours as well as history about the city or town. 5. Visiting New Towns That Weren’t on My Radar On each of the Viking Cruise routes I took, there was at least one location I had never heard of that took my breath away. My next three favorites (#6-8) I’m sharing one town from each cruise I absolutely loved and didn’t know about prior to the Viking River Cruise. All three of these quaint, small-town European locations are the type many of us dream of experiencing. 6. Colmar, France on the Rhine River Cruise On the Rhine River Cruise, it was Colmar that stole my heart. The old town has cobblestone streets lined with half-timbered medieval and early Renaissance buildings. Colmar is also considered the Venice of France, because of a canal that runs through the old town with guided gondola rides. 7. Český Krumlov in the Czech Republic On the Danube Waltz Cruise, it was the medieval UNESCO town of Český Krumlov in the Czech Republic that was shockingly beautiful. 8. Veliko Tarnovo in Bulgaria On the Passage to Eastern Europe, it was the medieval town of Veliko Tarnovo in Bulgaria. It’s a small, picturesque city surrounded by fortified walls and lined with cobbled lanes. It’s one of Bulgaria’s oldest towns, and its centerpiece is the magnificent restored Tsarevets Fortress. 9. Home Visit Tours On all three of the river cruises I took, there was at least one tour option for a home visit or home cooking class. On the Passage to Eastern Europe trip, my mom and I visited a home in Bilje. We were served a homemade traditional cake, tea, and local liquor. It’s also a chance to sit with the host and learn about Croatian traditions and customs as well as their experience during the war with Serbia. These home visits are the best way to understand local life and learn about local history. 10. Day at Sea Not only is this a relaxing day onboard a Viking longships vessel, but it tends to offer some of the most spectacular scenery. On the Rhine River cruise, the day at sea is the most scenic stretch of the Rhine, where turreted castles and fortresses overlook the river. This part of the Middle Rhine Valley is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and absolutely gorgeous. On the Passage to Eastern Europe route, our scenic cruising day was through one of the most picturesque areas of the Lower Danube. We sailed through the Iron Gate; one of Europe’s most dramatic natural wonders—a spectacular narrow gorge with enormous white limestone cliffs. On this cruise, we also sailed by the rock sculpture of ancient king Decebalus. 11. Locks All three of my Viking River Cruises Europe trips I took had a series of locks on certain days. On the Danube Waltz and Passage to Eastern Europe trips, we passed through locks during the day. It’s quite spectacular to watch this process both from your room and from the sun deck. 12. Welcome Back after Excursions One of the many details that make a Viking Cruise special is the welcome back. Not only, are you individually welcomed back by the crew from each of the ports of call, but there is also a refreshing drink or sweet treat as well. This is part of the Viking experience that is so special. Below, my sister, Wendy shares her favorite things about our Viking Rhine River cruise. 13. The Booking Process Viking was amazing with the booking process, coordinating the airfare along with a cruise. A Viking Cruise is a great and easy way to experience Europe. Everything is done for you, all the planning (which can be complicated) is done! All we had to do was explore and enjoy. 14. The Size of the Ship The river cruise boat/ship was a great size. Our stateroom had plenty of room for two of us to maneuver around and share the space. The general size of the ship was very comfortable and had an intimate feel. The ship had windows everywhere. No matter where we were sitting; enjoying a cocktail after a great day of sightseeing in the lounge or in the dining room, we had amazing views of the passing scenery. 15. The Christmas Markets The Viking Cruise that we had the pleasure of going on was the Rhine River Christmas Market Cruise. I can not recommend it more highly, the markets were magical! Every Christmas market that we walked through had its own character and special local products being sold. You can’t miss the mulled wine and the personalized cups from each market. They are great to collect from each location and make for a great souvenir. These markets are a great glimpse into local culture. 16. The Viking Staff The Viking staff could not have been more accommodating. From the moment we approached the River Cruise, the Viking staff made everything so simple and pleasurable. The dining room maître d’ and servers made every meal feel like a five-star experience. They made us feel welcome and went out of their way to get to know everyone for a more personal experience. The bartenders in the lounge also made our experience very fun. They had a great sense of humor and made a point to remember what we liked to drink and would serve us as we walked in. 17. The Rhine Route We enjoyed the variety of locations we experienced on the Rhine River Cruise. 4 countries, Medieval castles, Christmas Markets, Windmills. So much to see and experience and everything planned out ideally for us. This was the easiest and most enjoyable way to see Europe. Below, my husband, Todd shares his favorite things about our Viking Danube cruise. My second Viking Cruise was with my husband, Todd. We celebrated our 21st wedding anniversary with a Danube Waltz Cruise. This is an 8-day itinerary that includes stops in Passau, (Germany), Vienna (Austria), Bratislava (Slovakia), and Budapest (Hungary). Below, are the top five favorite things Todd loved about our Viking Cruise experience. 18. It’s a different experience than any other type of travel It allows you to see things at a slower pace and really enjoy the experience. You also get to see the countryside and towns that you may not see on a normal adventure via auto or bus. It’s a higher level of service and lower-key experience. It’s not fancy-schmancy, it’s tastefully done and feels just right as a full trip experience.. 19. The food and services are the best there are The food was always top-notch, even down to the smallest detail like the bread baskets. The food was fresh and was from different areas of the country. The menus were interesting and not the normal menus you would have on a cruise. The chef visited with guests and if you needed Gluten-free or dairy-free meals, they were custom made by the chef and staff to your liking. 20. You get to travel to 4 or 5 special locations in one trip With Viking cruises, you get to see more of the country and from a different perspective than by bus or car. You travel slowly downriver and can truly embrace what life is like in little villages and towns. 21. Cost and upsell: it’s reasonable and the upsell is not a focus With the Viking cruise price and you figure in the quality of food and services, the locations you visit, it is a great value. Also, the cost of extra day trips is reasonable. You are really getting a better value for your money than leaving the experience up to chance. 22. Staff and people aboard It’s really easy to make travel friends on Viking cruises and you feel like the staff and servers are your friends after a day or two. You eat, travel and party with people on the river cruise and it’s easy to make friends; everyone is very fun and vibrant, considering the age demographic. You have the opportunity to meet other cruisers at dinner, on day trips, or after hours in the lounge to name a few. It’s also nice that meals aren’t assigned seating because you can sit with new people at each meal if you wish. Below, my mom, Penny shares her favorite things (and a few of her photos) from our Passage to Eastern Europe cruise on the Danube. 23. Complimentary Shore Excursions Szentendre, Hungary There is at least one complimentary shore excursion in every port. From comfortable transportation to knowledgeable tour guides, these free shore excursions gave a good overview of the city or area we were visiting. Beyond, the daily included tours, there were additional tours available for a fee. One of my favorite tours was the very small artists’ village of Szentendre, Hungary. This village has the narrowest street in Hungary, the smallest synagogue in Hungary, 26 art galleries and lots of shops selling and telling all about paprika. I do love trivia so this was a perfect tour for me! Osijek, Croatia On day 9 of the cruise, we were in Russe, Bulgaria which happens to be the largest city in Bulgaria and situated on the Danube River. This included tour gave a wonderful overview of the old city center, high school, historical museum, the opera house and Liberty Square with “their”Statue of Liberty. 24. Crew and staff The crew and staff, including the captain, were friendly and courteous and went out of their way to accommodate the passengers. And this was done with real smiles and genuine enthusiasm. Arriving back to the ship after an excursion, members of the crew would meet us with a flavored tea or a pastry and always a welcome back. 25. Social Environment From the lounge to the dining room the ship was made for social interaction: the lounge, a meeting place for cocktails, lectures, performances and after-dinner gatherings and the one dining room large enough to seat everyone in style. The first day onboard there were a lot of smiling but unrecognizable faces to the last day a lot of smiling faces of friends. 26. The lighting in the corridors Walking to my stateroom the first day, the corridor was so peaceful with the soft lighting and easy and attractive decor. I even took a picture at night showing the lighting from the ceiling. I had that same happy feeling till the last day of my cruise. Speaking of lighting, the bathroom lighting was spectacular. 27. Soft music in the corridors When leaving my stateroom I was happily surprised by low, soft music in the corridor. The first day I turned around to see which stateroom it was coming from and realized it was provided by Viking. The next five favorite things are from Howard Blount. We were both on the Rhine Getaway Christmas Market cruise in 2016. Howard is a fellow travel writer and founder of Backroad Planet; a road, river, and rail travel adventure website. He has sailed with Viking River Cruises three times; on the Rhine Getaway, Grand European, and River of Gold itineraries. 28. World-Class Amenities The red carpet treatment on Viking river cruises extends far beyond the ruby runner that welcomes travelers aboard their longship. Every Viking amenity from complimentary champagne and chocolates, to luxurious Freyja® bath and body products, to the understated elegance of Scandinavian design pampers guests with the ultimate in creature comforts. 29. Ship Staff I will go out on a limb and say that I believe Viking crew members are vetted with personality assessments and trained to the highest standards of courtesy and hospitality. You are sure to find Viking staff to be the kindest, most gregarious people you would ever want to meet, making your life on board pure delight. 30. Exclusive Excursions Viking offers both included and optional river port excursions. Every day and at each destination, guests have the option to choose from free or paid land activities. Occasionally limited excursion opportunities and Privileged Access® experiences are offered. Such was the case with my favorite Viking excursion to date. The “Top of Cologne” tour led my group through the hidden recesses of the Kölner Dom and sent us soaring to the top of the gothic cathedral at sunset. 31. Quality Clientele Viking has been called a “thinking persons” cruise line because it caters to a mature well-read clientele with interests in history, the arts, and scenic destinations. These are the cultured people I enjoy traveling with, and some of my cruisemates have become friends for life. If you are seeking a party boat, you won’t find it with Viking. 32. Exotic Destinations Viking’s European river cruises on the Rhine, Main, and the Danube are legendary, offering the ideal way to visit multiple countries by way of a sailing hotel. Viking also offers cruises along even more exotic rivers through Russia, Egypt, China, and Southeast Asia. You can’t go wrong with destination options like these, and my insider tips will help you plan your journey of a lifetime on the world’s leading river cruise line. The next five favorite things are from Alison Abbott. She was also on the same Rhine Getaway Christmas Market cruise in 2016. Alison Abbott is the founder of Green With Renvy, a travel and lifestyle with a focus on sustainable shades of green living. She has taken two trips with Viking River Cruises, including The Rhine Getaway and the 14 -day Imperial Jewels of China. When I took my first Viking River Cruise, I wasn’t sure if this was a method of travel for me. It didn’t take long for me to be convinced. I was traveling with my husband on the Rhine from Basel to Amsterdam and we have two very different styles of travel. Viking solved all of the normal challenges we have on a trip. There are many reasons I love to travel with Viking, but here are my top five. 33. Unpack Once Like most cruisers, you can’t beat the concept of unpacking once and having a mobile hotel that floats you from city to city (or even country to country). This is a big winner for us. 34. Water Travel Both my husband and I adore being on the water no matter what time of year. As the main highway for cruise transport, the rivers represent our Happy Place. The selection of side excursions in each port is extensive and if we wanted to see different parts of a city on our own, the choices made that easy and we didn’t have to arrange getting separate guides. 35. Excellent Variety Food Viking has excellent food and offers such variety that all food concerns can easily be met. One consult with the chef and staff and my delicious choices and requirements were never forgotten. Visiting the Christmas markets along the Rhine was festive and the crew on Viking brought the holiday spirit right back onto the ship (including local tastes) without being overbearing. 36. Viking Takes Care of all the Details My second cruise to China was a bit more complicated. The logistics of booking a trip that included an extensive itinerary that Viking covers would have been impossible to do on my own. The language barriers are real and the country is vast. Viking took care of all the details. We saw all of the major sites, including the Great Wall, the Terra Cotta Warriors and a sail on the Yangtze to the Three Gorges Dam. For anyone who has China on their bucket list, Viking offers a great way to see many of the major sites in one trip. 37. The Tour Guides Colmar, France The guides are excellent. Although there were close to 200 people on board, we were divided into groups we called families. It brought a group of strangers together with the common bond of a love for travel and by the end of the trip all of our family was exchanging contact information. There is a friendly competition among the guides to be the best head of the household and it shines through in their delivery. The next five favorite things are from Julie Cohn. She was also on the same Rhine Getaway Christmas Market cruise in 2016. Julie is the founder of A Cork, Fork, & Passport, a food & travel lifestyle site, and a veteran travel agent with Luxe Journeys Travel. She traveled with Viking River Cruise on their Rhine River itinerary and is planning two Viking River Cruises for 2020. Windmills at Kinderdijk in the Netherlands 38. The Crew The entire crew is so friendly and accommodating, especially the dining room and bar staff. If you sit in the same area of the dining room each meal, the waitstaff get to know your preferences, likes and dislikes. 39. European Christmas Markets I cannot imagine any other way to see the European Christmas Markets during the holidays than a Viking River Cruise. The Rhine River cruise I traveled with visited Strasbourg, Heidelberg, Cologne, Colmar, and other magical Christmas markets. 40. Affordable Luxury Travel Viking River Cruises is affordable luxury travel. Special amenities such as complimentary wine, beer and soft drinks with lunch and dinner, heated floors and Freyja® toiletries in the bathroom, included shore excursions, and fresh fruit delivered to the room daily add luxurious touches as well as value to a trip. 41. Cuisine on a Viking River Cruise The menu choices and cuisine on a Viking River Cruise are excellent, with variety to accommodate everyone’s tastes, including those with special diets. Secret tip: The muesli and European yogurt on the breakfast menu are to die for. 42. Viking River Cruise shore excursions The Viking River Cruise shore excursions are fun and informative, with unique things to do in every port. Be sure to step outside of your comfort zone a bit, such as the daring Top of Cologne tour! The next five favorite things are from Katherine Belarmino. She is a fellow San Diego based travel blogger. Katherine Belarmino is the founder of Travel the World, a travel website for people with careers and limited vacation time. She has traveled with Viking Cruises twice, on their Magnificent Mekong cruise through Vietnam and Cambodia and on their Romantic Danube Christmas Markets cruise and has written about what it’s like to cruise with Viking River Cruises. She’s also toured their ocean cruise ship, the Viking Star. Magnificent Mekong cruise through Vietnam and Cambodia I’m not a fan of big crowds, so Viking River Cruises’ small ships and small groups fit me perfectly. On the smaller river cruises, the tour sizes are comfortable and you can build relationships with your fellow travelers. The small ships also come with cozy, but spacious staterooms with special features like balconies and heated bathroom floors. I went from never having been on a cruise in my life to being a big fan of Viking River Cruises. My top five favorite things about Viking River Cruises are: 43. Their small ships with small groups of people. 44. The beautiful, cozy staterooms. The stateroom stewards are also a big part of the guest staterooms experience. Every time you leave the room for an excursion or meal, the room is straightened and cleaned. 45. The variety of travel options. This includes pre and post cruise extensions. There is an additional charge for the extension packages, but they are well worth the investment if you are interested in seeing more of the first or last city of the cruise itinerary. These additional days can take your trip from great to fabulous! 46. The amount of time spent at each port. 47. Viking offers the best way to experience Europe’s Christmas markets. Budapest, Hungary on the Romantic Danube Christmas Markets cruise The final favorite things come from a fellow travel blogger, Cacinda Maloney, whom I met on a media trip to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Dr. Cacinda Maloney is the founder of PointsandTravel.com, a travel website focused on adventure, culture, and smart luxury travel experiences. She has taken 9 Viking Cruises including many of the main routes along the Danube, Rhine, and Rhône, as well as their ocean liners. Viking River Cruises offers a lot of European river cruising options that visit multiple countries like Germany, Austria, Hungary, The Netherlands, France, and more. They also offer river cruises beyond Europe, including river cruises in China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, which take place on ships that fit the destination. A river cruise with Viking River Cruises also means passengers get to spend more time at each destination, sometimes even spending an overnight at a port so the city can be explored for even longer independently. This is especially welcome on their famous Christmas market cruises since many Christmas markets are best experienced at night. Viking River Cruises are the best way to experience Europe’s Christmas markets because they take passengers to multiple towns’ Christmas markets in one trip. Chairman Torstein Hagen has done an amazing job creating this special cruising experience. My top five reasons you will love sailing with Viking Cruises, including a memorable excursion experience I had on Viking Cruises. 48. The Quality of the Ships The ships themselves are in great condition and well taken care of. You will enjoy the amenities in the room that you book, as there is plenty of space for two and lots of “hiding” places for things to be put away. 49. The Fabulous Crew! There is so much to say how the crew and the cruise directors make such a difference in your travel experience! From the bartenders to the maintenance crew and the people who service your room, their helpfulness and smile make such a big difference. And that is just how Viking is, they train their staff to take good care of you! 50. The Delicious Food And you can pretty much guarantee the food onboard a Viking Cruise is going to be fine cuisine quality! From theme nights to food-related to the areas you are visiting, they do their best to enhance your travel experience. Plus, you always make new friends each night as you enjoy dinner with different groups of people! 51. The Ship Experience And with all the awesome things to see and do in each port city, sometimes you just want to enjoy and relax on the ship itself. The top deck, with its walking track and plenty of seating, you can make sure you get plenty of exercises or you can just sit and float down the river or ocean enjoying the wonderful views! 52. Memorable Excursions on One of My Viking Cruises You will have plenty of memorable excursions, but I remember, on one of my Daube River Viking Cruise excursions, a cool crisp morning of riding a bicycle through the vineyards of Austria! What an exhilarating ride we had as we rode through tiny villages and then out to the countryside to experience a gorgeous morning! Pin it for Later! Helpful Links for More Viking Cruises Information Viking Cruises win the best river cruise line award by numerous organizations. Viking Cruises Website Viking River Cruises on Facebook Viking River Cruises on Twitter How to Choose the Right Viking River Cruise Viking Rhine River Christmas Cruise ————————————————————————————————————————————- Follow 52 Perfect Days on Bloglovin \| Facebook \| Twitter \| Pinterest \| Instagram ————————————————————————————————————————————- Disclosure: Some of the links on this page may be affiliate links. 52 Perfect Days is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program and other affiliate programs designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com. This means if you click on the link and purchase the item, I will receive an affiliate commission. Regardless, I only recommend products or services I use personally and believe will add value to my readers. Alexa Alexa Meisler is the editorial director of 52 Perfect Days. Born in Paris, France she has since lived in Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Portland, Oregon. She currently resides in San Diego with her husband and son where they enjoy exploring California and Mexico. Travel has always been a part of her life; traveling to such places as Morocco, Tangiers and Spain as a young child as well as taking many road trips to Mexico with her grandparents as a young girl. Since then, she has traveled abroad to locations such as Russia, Taiwan and throughout Europe. Prior to working at 52 Perfect Days she was a freelance travel writer; focusing on family and women’s adventure experiences. If you liked it, please share it. Thank you! 2.2K shares Facebook2.1K Twitter Pinterest170 Reddit Flipboard LinkedIn Buffer Mix About the Author Alexa Alexa Meisler is the editorial director of 52 Perfect Days. Born in Paris, France she has since lived in Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Portland, Oregon. She currently resides in San Diego with her husband and son where they enjoy exploring California and Mexico. Travel has always been a part of her life; traveling to such places as Morocco, Tangiers and Spain as a young child as well as taking many road trips to Mexico with her grandparents as a young girl. Since then, she has traveled abroad to locations such as Russia, Taiwan and throughout Europe. Prior to working at 52 Perfect Days she was a freelance travel writer; focusing on family and women’s adventure experiences. Twitter Facebook Google Pinterest Instagram 5 Comments Eric Gamble at — Reply So Darcee & I took our very first ever Viking River Cruise this past New Years Eve on the Rhine for our Honeymoon and we absolutely loved it! You are right there is so much to love about the whole experience! We loved the intimate feel and how the staff always went above and beyond to make us feel special! The food was off the hook and so were the cocktails! For our cruise, one of our favorite parts was at night they would bring on local entertainment from wherever we were in port to showcase the music and dancing of the area! We also loved all the tours that were included too. I think my only complaint is that I do wish they had 1 extra day of just sailing where we could relax and just watch the world go by. I know that may seem bizarre coming from such an active traveler like myself, but if we go again during warmer months, I would just love sitting on the deck watching all the towns float by! Jordan Campbell at — Reply This looks amazing!!! I’ve only done one cruise (Caribbean), but a river cruise looks WAY more my style! 😮 Paige at — Reply I have always wanted to take a Viking River Cruise! It seems like you get to see so much of Europe that way. And doing a Christmas market cruise sounds amazing! Jamie Edwards at — Reply I have to say, I have never been excited about a cruise until I read this! You really paint an incredible picture of the Viking River Cruise life. Will look into it for the future! Jamie Italane at — Reply I had planned to go on my first Viking River Cruise next summer for my best friend’s birthday. It is being put off from all this craziness, but I am excited for when we get to do it. Leave a reply Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Write for us! Become a Contributing Writer Since 2008, 52 Perfect Days has provided travelers with travel articles, photos and videos from destinations around the world. Alexa is a Travel writer, photographer and podcaster from San Diego, California.
0.999996	Texas Senator Ted Cruz expressed support for unvaccinated NBA players, calling superstar player LeBron James “courageous” for refusing to use his influence to force others to get a COVID-19 shot. “I’m behind Kyrie Irving. I’m behind Andrew Wiggins. I’m behind Bradley Beal. I stand behind Jonathan Isaac,” Cruz tweeted Wednesday afternoon, naming players believed to have not been vaccinated with the hashtag #YourBodyYourChoice. Cruz further praised James after the Los Angeles Lakers superstar confirmed to reporters on Tuesday that although he had been vaccinated after initial skepticism, he respected those who chose not to get vaccinated. “We’re talking about people’s bodies and well-being, so I don’t think I should interfere with what other people should be doing for their bodies and their livelihood,” James said. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz tweeted his support for NBA players who have not been vaccinated against the coronavirus, saying it was a personal choice The Texas senator also expressed support for LeBron James, who said Tuesday that even though he was vaccinated, he would not use his influence to force others to get the shot. “@KingJames is brave here,” Cruz tweeted about the player’s stance, calling on him to do more by refusing to play in arenas where the mandate would prohibit unvaccinated players from playing. “He was able to SOLVE the problem – by saying, ‘I stand behind my teammates. And I will not play in an arena that bans another NBA player because they make a personal health choice,” Cruz tweeted. Cruz’s support came on the heels of an announcement by the league that NBA players will lose game checks if they’re not allowed to play in New York and San Francisco, where local vaccine mandates are in effect. “A player who chooses not to comply with local vaccination mandates will not be paid for games he misses,” NBA spokesman Mike Bass said on Wednesday. Mandatory vaccinations for players was a non-starter with their union, leading the league to put in place strict protocols for unvaccinated players. Lebron James, 36, confirmed his vaccination status at a press conference in LA Lakers on Tuesday However, local mandates take precedence over the NBA, meaning players in New York and San Francisco must sit out home games if they don’t stay vaccinated. That could be a major concern for Brooklyn Nets’ Kyrie Irving and the Golden State Warriors’ Andrew Wiggins as both are believed to have not been vaccinated, although they have not confirmed their status. Irving and Wiggins could lose about half of their respective $35 million and $31 million salaries if they forgo the injection. “It’s my problem, not yours,” Wiggins told reporters on Tuesday. Unvaccinated NBA players will be tested daily this season and undergo other rigorous protocols, while their vaccinated counterparts will have far fewer requirements, according to a league memo sent to teams and obtained by DailyMail.com Unvaccinated players are a source of headaches for the NBA, and the league announced Wednesday that players banned from playing in vaccine-mandated arenas will lose their game controls. That could mean Brooklyn Nets player Kyle Irving (left) and Golden State Warriors player Andrew Wiggins, who are believed not to have been vaccinated, could lose half their paychecks for not being able to play at home games. Nearly 90 percent of the league’s players have been vaccinated and they will only be tested if they show symptoms or have close contact with a positive case. Meanwhile, unvaccinated players should be tested daily before entering a team facility, participating in team-organized activities, or interacting with other players and coaches. One of the other restrictions is that unvaccinated players are not allowed to dine in the same room as other players, and must be given a locker as far away from other players as possible. The situation, which is mirrored by the NFLs, could prove problematic for a league that has endured the pandemic for two seasons. Many vaccinated players, including LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers, have refused to call any requirement, and the players’ union has rejected the league’s proposed mandate. Irving has declined to discuss his vaccination status, but Fox Sports has reported that he did not receive the shot. He spoke to reporters remotely and was not physically present at this week’s media day in Brooklyn, where health guidelines require participants at indoor events to have at least one dose of the vaccine. Wizards All-Star Bradley Beal has not been vaccinated, but said he is continuing his investigation Magical attacker Jonathan Isaac has battled COVID-19 and has a mother who works in health care but has refused to be vaccinated and has vocally opposed any mandate Despite those clues, Irving told reporters he’s looking forward to playing for Nets fans this season, seemingly holding the door open to the possibility of getting the vaccine. “Obviously I can’t be there today, but that doesn’t mean I’m limiting my future from joining the team,” Irving told reporters during a video conference call. Orlando Magic attacker Jonathan Isaac has battled COVID-19 and has a mother who works in health care but has refused to be vaccinated and has vocally opposed any mandate. “I thank God, I am grateful that I live in a society where vaccines are possible and we can protect ourselves and have the resources to protect ourselves in the first place,” Isaac told reporters earlier this week. That said, I believe that each person’s vaccine status should be their own choice. “I’m not ashamed to say that I don’t feel comfortable taking the vaccine right now.” There are signs that the summer delta variant surge has slowed in recent weeks U.S. vaccination rates have fallen in recent weeks after rising amid a wave of infections Beal, meanwhile, clarified on Tuesday that he has not yet decided whether he will be vaccinated against COVID-19, while largely supporting the skeptical opinions he shared a day earlier during the team’s media day. “What I said yesterday, I believe what I said. It’s my opinion,” Beal said. ‘The ‘why’ is personal, but also in that sense I have said that I am still considering getting the vaccine. So one thing I want to make clear is that I’m not sitting here advocating or campaigning for, “No, you shouldn’t be getting that vaccine.” It has long been rumored that James was not vaccinated. “I know I was very skeptical about it, but after doing my research and stuff like that, I felt like it was the most suitable not only for me, but also for my family and my friends,” says the 36 year-old told reporters at a pre-season press conference. When asked how important it was for the team to be fully vaccinated, James said, “Ultimately, you always try to think of ways to always be available and protect each other.” James has made more than $1 billion in his 18-year career, but taxes, expenses and investments bring his net worth to about $850 million, according to Forbes. James said although he was vaccinated against Covid-19, it was a personal choice for others who have refused . 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0.967835	Pneumatic filters are used in compressed air systems to filter the air and remove contaminants. This filtration improves the efficiency of the system and prevents damage by trapping unwanted particles in the filter material. Filter elements are a vital part of the system as this is the component which primarily filters the air in the system. The elements within a compressed air filter may become damaged or worn over time. Filter elements for efficient water separation also help to increase the service life of the filter. We offer a range of replacement air filter elements for different filter systems. It is important to ensure that the replacement is compatible with your cartridge or pneumatic filter system. Filter elements are found in compressed air systems within many applications, such as automotive, manufacturing and general purpose compressors. What is filtration grade? Filtration grade is used to describe the filters ability to catch particles. This is usually measured in "µm" (micrometer) and describes the size of the particles that the filter is able to remove from the compressed air.
0.948152	In this article, we are going to take a look at some of the best Wi-Fi calling apps and how they rank against each other. “Hi, mom! Just wanted to wish you a happy... read more 0 Comments Travel UK Travel Corridor: Open Sesame – Best UK Travel Guide in 2021 ByMichael July 14, 2021 December 2, 2021 “I feel like having a vacation”, “so pack your bag and let’s go then!”, says nobody now. COVID-19 has wreaked havoc around the world. With the UK travel corridor closing down, ‘travel the world’... read more 0 Comments Travel Reconnecting With Old Friends – A Social Conundrum ByMichael June 29, 2021 December 2, 2021 The Social Conundrum – Connecting With New Friends We’ve all heard about the social butterfly, fluttering around a room full of people, talking incessantly and making new friends. Reconnecting with old friends seems unreasonably...
0.999699	Many of today’s leading employers are beginning to embrace new models of education, including online learning. As a result, we see a number of employers hiring online boot camp students due to their work ethic and combination of hard skills (technical knowledge) and soft skills (adaptability, collaboration, creativity, etc.). Because of the fast-paced nature of an online boot camp, students pick up on these core skills and best practices while building a robust portfolio of projects to show off to potential employers. One quality in particular that stands out about online boot camp students is their ability to learn quickly. With new tools and technologies routinely being introduced, this skill is essential for anyone working in the tech landscape. Proceeding through the accelerated pace of an online boot camp tells an employer that you’re ready for a rapidly moving, demanding career. A survey of 1,000 HR managers and technical recruiters at U.S. companies found that the majority of employers “think bootcamp graduates are just as prepared and likely to be high performers as candidates with computer science degrees.” The same survey also found that 80 percent of these hiring professionals have offered jobs to boot camp students within their company, and 99.8 percent would do it again. Why Do Employers Seek Out Online Boot Camp students? There are a number of skills and qualities that help set boot camp students apart from other candidates: 1. Remote Work Experience: Recently, more companies have been shifting to remote work, and the trend is likely to continue beyond 2020 due to COVID-19. Through the virtual format of an online boot camp, students gain experience in working remotely, a significant value add to potential employers. As Matt Mullenweg, the Chief Executive of WordPress, notes, there is “an opportunity for many companies to finally build a culture that allows long-overdue work flexibility.” Companies like WordPress are already remote-friendly, while many others are beginning to shift more towards telecommuting. 2. Personal Accountability: Creating a culture that encourages accountability is an ongoing process for many employers today. Sam Reese, CEO of Vistage Worldwide, writes in an article for The Business Journals, “[Accountability is] the ability of a person to provide focus on an initiative, make the necessary decisions and garner support from their organization to achieve success.” Online learning is a great way to practice personal accountability by prioritizing regular attendance and keeping up with lessons. This self-drive translates directly into workplace accountability, with online boot camp students often becoming dependable employees who can be counted on to complete tasks on time. 3. Lifelong Learning: Lifelong learning is essential given the rapid changes we are seeing in the tech field today. A recent publication called The Future of Lifelong Learning suggests that 375 million workers across the global workforce may need to learn new skills by 2030. Those who attend online boot camps typically possess a strong desire to obtain more knowledge and information. This curiosity allows them to continuously learn, expand their skill set, and share their newfound knowledge with employers. 4. Technical Skills: Many companies today are struggling with a tech talent shortage due to a digital skills gap. In fact, 70 percent of executives say current employees lack tech and computer skills. As such, those who complete an online boot camp have an advantage when it comes to the tech skills gap. A significant portion of a boot camp’s curriculum is focused on teaching in-demand tech skills. students gain a wide set of technical skills, put them into action, and walk out with an impressive professional portfolio and the confidence needed to succeed in a wide range of tech professions. 5. Soft Skills: While technical skills are critical, organizations today are also looking for professionals that possess equally strong soft skills. Research has shown that the seven top characteristics of success at companies like Google are soft skills such as communicating and listening well, critical thinking, and being able to collaborate across diverse teams. Soft skill development is a fundamental part of a boot camp, with many involving team-based projects that simulate real-world work. Online boot camp students can expect to learn soft skills such as collaboration, communication, adaptability, critical thinking, and more. Are you interested in learning these and other technical and soft skills to advance your tech career? Check out The Coding Boot Camp and The Cybersecurity Boot Camp at UCR Extension. Which Companies Hire Boot Camp students? Top companies recognize the skills and talents that an online boot camp education can offer. With the demand for technology professionals far outpacing the current supply, companies like the ones below are looking to hire skilled candidates from a wide range of educational backgrounds. 1. Apple This world-leading technology powerhouse recruits for both entry-level and experienced positions without requiring a formal education. Instead, Apple is looking for strong communication skills, attention to detail, and collaboration — all skills that can be learned through a high-quality online boot camp. 2. Google Arguably one of the most well-known companies in the world, Google recruits for highly skilled technology roles, with many only requiring what Google refers to as equivalent practical experience. 3. IBM This industry-leading technology company hires for top roles that require technical experience and industry knowledge. Online boot camp students are often equipped with in-depth technical expertise and knowledge that is understood by industry professionals. 4. Bank of America As one of the largest companies in the financial industry, Bank of America offers a wide variety of highly skilled roles in multiple fields. For many of these roles, the company is seeking candidates from a wide range of educational backgrounds. 5. Penguin Random House The world’s leading book publisher Penguin Random House removed degree requirements in recruiting back in 2016. The company attracts talented candidates in highly skilled roles from a very diverse range of educational backgrounds. Resources to Help You Get Started: 1. Identifying a High-Quality Online Boot Camp: With a wide range of online boot camps on the market, it is important to identify the characteristics of those that provide a top-quality learning experience. Asking these seven questions can help you choose a boot camp that meets both your education and career goals. 2. Tips for Effective Online Learning: Thanks to the many advancements in modern technology, online boot camps have become more accessible than ever before, allowing students to receive the same high-quality experience and outcomes offered by in-person education via a virtual experience. Are you taking an online boot camp for the first time? Here are 10 tips to maximize your online learning experience. 3. Preparing for Your New Career Are you wondering which soft and hard skills employers are looking for? When you begin your job search, it is important to customize the skills section of your resume to match what companies require from the role. Our online boot camp includes a Career Services team that is there to help you with resume writing and building your online professional presence. Once you’ve created a resume, started applying for roles, and caught the attention of a company, you may be invited to interview with a hiring manager. Our Career Services team is also there to help you prepare for a successful interview through mock scenarios, live negotiation practice, and more. Learn More For many of today’s employers, it’s no longer essential to have a bachelor’s degree, an associate’s degree, or post-secondary education. Instead, employers are often looking for a blend of valuable soft and hard skills combined with technical knowledge. These skills can be taught in a traditional degree education, but also through an online boot camp. Whether you want to change jobs completely, stay current with evolving technology, or show your current boss that you’re ready for more responsibility, you can become more valuable with newfound digital skills. Following an online boot camp education, you can become a greater asset to any employer. Ready to start your online boot camp journey? UCR Extension Boot Camps are designed to prepare you for a career in today’s fast-growing tech industries. Get Program Info First Name Last Name Email Phone Submit By submitting this form, you agree that Trilogy Education Services may contact you regarding this boot camp. Your personal data will be used as described in our privacy policy. You may opt out of receiving communications at any time. The following requires your attention: Choose Program Next Back Online or In-Person? 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0.999998	Cryptocurrency is an internet-based medium of exchange which uses cryptographical functions to conduct financial transactions. Cryptocurrencies leverage blockchain technology to gain decentralization, transparency, and immutability. The most important feature of a cryptocurrency is that it is not controlled by any central authority: the decentralized nature of the blockchain makes cryptocurrencies theoretically immune to the old ways of government control and interference. Cryptocurrencies can be sent directly between two parties via the use of private and public keys. These transfers can be done with minimal processing fees, allowing users to avoid the steep fees charged by traditional financial institutions. What is Bitcoin? Bitcoin is the first decentralized electronic cash payment network that enables value to be transferred peer-to-peer. Unlike traditional payment networks, Bitcoin bypasses the need for a centralized body of control, such as a government or a central bank. Instead, activities and balances are stored on a public, shared ledger called the blockchain, which is verified by thousands of computers (called nodes) maintaining the network across the globe. Transactions are made with no middlemen so anyone with access to the Internet can transfer money to anybody anywhere in the world.
0.99171	(CNN) — Fabulous food, amazing art, rich language, dramatic and gorgeous landscapes -- we all know what makes Italy so special. Perhaps best of all are the scenic small towns and villages, where it's possible to enjoy all these while surrounded by picturesque coastline, mountains, valleys, rivers or volcanoes. Here are some of the most idyllic villages where you can travel that perfectly sum up the beautiful country, or "Bel Paese." Pietrapertosa Pietrapertosa is popular with extreme sports lovers. Courtesy I Borghi più Belli d'Italia Located between the gigantic crags of the Basilicata region's so-called "Southern Dolomites," Pietrapertosa almost looks like it's being swallowed by the mountains. It takes its name from the ancient Petraperciata, which means "perforated stone," a reference to the huge rock that in whose clefts this pretty village sits. Shards of human-shaped rocks jut out everywhere in Pietrapertosa, which is shaped like an amphitheater. Standing at an altitude of around 1,000 meters, its residents proudly say they live suspended mid-air between the sky and the earth. This backdrop has allowed Pietrapertosa to become a hotspot for extreme sports lovers. The most thrilling activity here is the Angel Flight, which sees visitors zip line from Pietrapertosa's highest peak to that of the nearby village of Castelmezzano, offering an adrenaline-filled glide over sharp pinnacles and hairpin bends. The village is also home to an ancient, crumbling Saracen castle that offers splendid views of the mountains. Stand out local establishments include restaurant Le Rocce, located on top a hill, serves fantastic local dishes and cozy B&B Palazzo del Barone, with fabulous mountain views. Le Rocce, Via Giuseppe Garibaldi, 109, 85010 Pietrapertosa; +39 0971 983260 Il Palazzo del Barone, Piazza Giuseppe Garibaldi, 8, 85010 Pietrapertosa; +39 339 586 9343 Marina Corricella Marina Corricella is flanked by fortress Terra Murata. Courtesy Sergio Aletta Procida's oldest fishing village is easily one of Italy's most beautiful thanks to its patchwork of purple, yellow, pink, blue and green houses. Dating back to the 17th century, Marina Corricella has a simple, laid back vibe that's hard to replicate. Lined with wooden boats and fishing nets, the harbor here is usually buzzing with shouting fishermen and vendors. Fortress Terra Murata, a former prison, serves as the highest point on the island, with views stretching across the Gulf of Naples. As for accommodation,18th century aristocratic palazzo Hotel la Casa sul Mare is a stand out, featuring just 10 designer rooms, while La Corricella restaurant serves signature fish dishes. Hotel la Casa sul Mare, Salita Castello, 13, 80079 Procida; +39 081 896 8799 3. Ricetto di Candelo Ricetto di Candelo -- a tiny medieval village in the region of Piedmont. Courtesy I Borghi più Belli d'Italia Situated in Piedmont, the name of this fortified hamlet literally means "refuge." Locals hid in this medieval village in times of war and it was used to store grapes, wine and grain after peace was declared. Dubbed the "Pompeii of the Middle Ages," the original architecture of this pentagon-shaped village has been incredibly preserved. Surrounded by tall walls, it's made up of around 200 reddish-brown cube-like houses and five main roads, with cobblestone alleys so clean they shine at night. Locanda La Greppia is one of the top restaurants here thanks to its delicious local cuisine, including various pork dishes. And with only three rooms, local B&B Al Ricetto provides an intimate stay for travelers. Locanda La Greppia, Prima rua, Ricetto, 13878 Candelo; +39 333 370 0425 B&B Al Ricetto, Via S. Sebastiano, 35, 13878 Candelo; +39 015 253 8838 Marettimo Marettimo -- the most remote of the three Egadi Islands. Courtesy Silvia Marchetti The wildest and most pristine island of Sicily's Egadi archipelago, Marettimo is a hideaway in every sense. Electric carts and donkeys are the sole means of transportation in this peaceful fishing village overlooked by an abandoned clifftop Saracen fortress. Consisting of a cluster of white-washed dwellings with blue trimmings that sparkle at sunset, its simplicity is hypnotizing. Islanders have been instilled with a primitive fear of the sea gods, which is apparent from the prayers scribbled on walls and doors to keep storms at bay. Made up of cozy studios, Marettimo Residence is the only hotel in town and blends with the natural surroundings perfectly. Another local highlight is seafront restaurant Il Veliero, a hotspot for bleeding sunset dinners. Il Veliero, Corso Umberto, 22, 92027 Licata AG, Italy; +39 0923 923274 Marettimo Residence, Via Telegrafo, 3, 91010 Isola di Marettimo; +39 0923 923202 Chianalea di Scilla This village has been dubbed the "little Venice of Calabria." Courtesy B&B Chianalea Located in Calabria, at the tip of Italy's boot, this fishermen village is built on layers of rocks rising out of the emerald green water. With waterfront homes so close to the sea that waves that wash into courtyards, it's known as the "little Venice of Calabria." Most of the homes here have boats and dinghies parked outside instead of cars, with locals proclaiming their "houses are boats and boats are houses." The tiny village lies on the Strait of Messina, believed to be the mythical location where dog-headed sea monster Scylla attacked the ship of Ulysses in "The Odyssey." At dawn, fishermen sell their catch down at the harbor, alongside Zibibbo wine and premium lemons. B&B Chianalea 54, a restyled fishermen dwelling and restaurant Glauco's, with specialties including sword fish rolls are both local stand outs. B&B Chianalea 54, Via Prof.Giuseppe Zagari, 54, 89058 Scilla; +39 346 359 6711 Scanno Lago di Scanno was created after an enormous landslide fell from Mountain Genzana. Courtesy Cesidio Silla/Regione Abruzzo Located in the wild Abruzzo region of central Italy, Scanno is a rural heaven. Once a lair for bandits and outlaws, this pretty village nestled in the Apennine Mountains features a wonderful mix of Baroque, Romanesque and Gothic architecture. Decorated with portals, masks and angels, its impressive facades, mansions, churches and fountains were originally commissioned by rich shepherd families, who competed against each other to ensure their properties were the most beautiful. The village also boast various humbler stone and wooden dwellings that resemble something from a nativity scene. Scanno overlooks a heart-shaped lake named after it, which some claim possesses magical powers. Set in a 1930s Liberty-style mansion, hotel restaurant Roma serves regional cuisine using local products. Hotel Roma, Viale della Pineta 6, 67038 Scanno; +39 0864 74313 Related content Italian food: 1 great dish from each of Italy's 20 regions Pienza Pienza lies in the province of Siena. Courtesy L' Informaturista Pienza Set in Val D'Orcia, Tuscany's most pristine corner, Pienza has been dubbed the "ideal city of the Renaissance." Renamed and redesigned by Pope Pius II in the late 15th century, its packed with architecture masterpieces like Palazzo Piccolomini, designed by Florentine sculptor and architect Bernardo Rossellino, located in the stunning Piazza Pio II. Positioned on a landscape of green rolling hills, the UNESCO World Heritage site, famously features a series of streets with romantic names like Love Street and Kiss Street. Local restaurant La Buca delle Fate offers typical Tuscan menu items including picci pasta. La Buca delle Fate, Corso il Rossellino, 38, A, 53026 Pienza; +39 0578 748448 Bosa Bosa is divided into two parts by the river Temo. Courtesy Archivio RAS This medieval village, also known as Sa Costa, is divided into two parts by the river Temo. The region's only navigable river lures in kayak lovers, its waters reflecting the multicolored buildings of the ancient district set in the western part of Sardinia. Here simple artisan dwellings are juxtaposed with lavish palazzos of shiny pink magmatic rock. Bosa was once renowned for its leather-making industry and is still filled with historical boutiques, where the art of tannery has been passed down across generations, as well as stores selling coral jewelry and asphodel baskets. Built by the Tuscan Malaspina family in the 12th century, the Castle of Serravalle overlooks the town. The impressive fortress can be fully admired from hotel restaurant Giardini Malaspina, which boasts a terrace and bar Giardini Malaspina, Loc.s'abbadolzeddu, 08013 Bosa; +39 320 031 5896 Calcata Calcata is popular with day trippers. Courtesy Silvia Marchetti Located close to Rome, Calcata is perched on a reddish hilltop rising out of a green canyon. Shaped like a huge mushroom, the hamlet dates back to ancient Italian tribe the "Falisci." A labyrinth of moss-covered cobbled alleys that lead to openings overlooking the precipice, it's been chosen as a lair by various modern artists and hippies. With grotto dwellings adorned with scary masks and statues and alleys featuring squeaky wooden benches and rock altars, Calcata has something of a spooky vibe and is popular with day trippers. Calcata Diffusa offers accommodation in grottoes scattered across the village, while restaurant Il Graal has outdoor dining on the piazza. Il Graal, Via Giuseppe Garibaldi 9, 01030 Calcata; +39 360 788 110 Manarola Manarola -- one of five of the Cinque Terre towns. Tristan MIMET from Pixabay Not only is Manarola the second-smallest hamlet of Liguria's Cinque Terre, it's also the oldest and most romantic. Enclosed by cliffs, the best way to get here is by train or by foot via the panoramic Lovers' Lane connecting to Riomaggiore village. Steep uphill stone paths connect the village's colorful houses and orchards all the way up to a strange pyramid made of white cement that guides sailors at sea. One of Manarola's main streets, Via Belvedere leads to a natural panoramic balcony overlooking the Ligurian Riviera, dotted with olive groves and vineyards. Hotel La Torretta, a 17th century tower, offers amazing sea view, while Trattoria La Scogliera serves delicious traditional pesto dishes. La Torretta, Vico Volto, 20, 19010 Manarola, Riomaggiore; +39 0187 920327 Related content 12 alternative places to visit in Italy when you want to get off the beaten path Marzamemi Marzamemi is home to an ancient "tonnara," or tuna plant. Courtesy Sebastiano Campisi/Proloco Marzamemi Situated near Noto in southeastern Sicily, Marzamemi is a tiny village of Arab origin. Once a vibrant fish industry hub, its yellowish-grey Arab-style stone buildings are one of many nods to its history. The village famously boasts an ancient "tonnara" or tuna plant as well as a wide piazza that's been restyled into ceramic boutiques, bars and cozy apartments. Tainted with black spots, the facades of the buildings make for an interesting sight. The town, which served as the filming location for Gabriele Salvatores' 1993 movie "South," hosts the Blue Fish Festival each June. Visitors B&B MaNanna, an old family dwelling run by the daughter of the last head tuna fishermen, is one of its top rated accommodation options and restaurant picks include Taverna La Cialoma. B&B MaNanna, Via Salvatore Giardina, 12, 96018 Marzamemi; +39 349 733 6855 Sperlonga Sperlonga -- a charming seaside destination. Courtesy Riccardo de Simone Built atop a cliff about halfway between Rome and Naples, Sperlonga's history is steeped in Greek legend. The shiny white limestone of this village is said to have once guided Odysseus's ship like a lighthouse. Sperlonga also sits atop an underground maze of sea grottoes, where a beautiful "nymph" of the same name apparently lived. Legend has it that god Jupiter, who had fallen madly in love with Sperlonga, turned himself into a meteorite in order to be with her, landing between her legs on the beach. Their night of passion is said to brought about the high crags the village was later built on to escape Saracen incursions. Today Sperlonga largely consists of terraced layers of houses and winding staircases that descend to the beach, where locals sunbathe close to ancient Roman pillars and and the ruins of Emperor Tiberius' lavish grotto villa, a must see site. Located close to the village's Blue Flag beaches is the splendid Virgilio Grand Hotel, which is also a chic seafood restaurant. Virgilio Grand Hotel, Via Giuseppe Romita, 262, 04029 Sperlonga; +39 0771 557600 Castelrotto Castelrotto is favored by winter sports enthusiasts. Courtesy Alpe di Siusi Marketing Situated in northern Italy's South Tyrol, Castelrotto sits in a lush valley surrounded by Alpine peaks and premium vineyards, near the Austrian border. Once part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the village is a blend of northern and Mediterranean cultures. The locals speak in a weird German-sounding dialect and eat apple Strüdel and Canederli (knödel) dumplings. Strolling through the town feels like walking through an open-air art exhibition thanks to the works of art on display. The mountain dwellings, a mix of Baroque and Liberty-style, are covered in colorful wall paintings by renowned 19th century artists. Meanwhile bucolic scenes adorn bakeries, stables, barns and hotels, including the historic Hotel Wolf and tavern Zum Turm. Hotel zum Wolf, Via Oswald Von Wolkenstein, 5, 39040 Castelrotto; +39 0471 706332 Hotel Zum Turm, Viale Kofel, 8, 39040 Castelrotto; +39 0471 706349 Cornello dei Tasso There are no roads in Cornello dei Tasso. Courtesy Museo dei Tasso Time stands still in this fairytale medieval hamlet near Bergamo, Lombardy. The only way to reach Cornello dei Tasso is via a 30-minute walk along a crooked path. There are no roads here, only cobbled alleys and narrow arches, and the houses have thatched roofs. Despite its remoteness, Cornello dei Tasso was actually the birth place of the founders of the first European postal service back in the 13th century. The village also boasts a museum dedicated to the postal pioneers, Bernardo Tasso and his son Torquato Tasso, author of the Renaissance epic poem "Jerusalem Delivered." The local museum also organizes guided tours around the hamlet. Trattoria Camozzi is the only tavern around, serving game, hare and venison and La Tana del Tasso is a no-frills B&B. Trattoria Camozzi, Via G. Camozzi, 73, 24121 Bergamo BG, Italy; +39 035 248808 Related content 7 of Europe's most beautiful villages Carloforte This picturesque village is positioned approximately seven kilometers off the southwestern coast of Sardinia. Courtesy Archivio RAS Positioned on the isle of San Pietro in Sardinia, Carloforte was founded by the families of coral fishers from a Ligurian town of Genoa in the 18th century. As a result, the picturesque village features the type of bright, Genoese-style architecture and "carruggi" alleys (wide enough for small carts) one would expect to find in Liguria. Carloforte is the only place in the entire Mediterranean where the "mattanza," a hunt in which hundreds of rare bluefin tuna are trapped in nets and massacred, is still practiced. For locals, this brutal and highly controversial custom is a sacred ritual. It takes place each year during the Girotonno, which also showcases tuna gourmet delicacies and offers guided tours inside the tuna factory. Restaurant picks in the area include low key seafood dining spot Luigi Pomata and hotel Nichotel, which boasts cozy suites overlooking the harbor. Nichotel, Via Garibaldi, 7, 09014 Carloforte; +39 0781 855674 Civita di Bagnoregio Civita di Bagnoregio has a population of just 12. Alexandra Voicu from Pixabay Founded by the Etruscans more than 2,500 years ago, Civita di Bagnoregio sits precariously atop a plateau overlooking the Tiber river valley in Latium. Dubbed the "Dying City" due to constant soil erosion and a dwindling population, the remote village looks like it could crumble into the deep chasm at any minute. Abandoned by most of its inhabitants years ago, only a dozen residents live her now, as well as many cats. The footbridge was bombed during World War II and just one single metal catwalk connects the village to the main road today. Visitors can check in to Corte della Maestà, a chic boutique hotel, while restaurant Alma Civita serves up good Italian and Mediterranean food inside a grotto. Corte della Maestà,Vicolo Della Maestà, 01022 Civita; +39 335 879 3077 Alma Civita, Via della Provvidenza, 01022 Civita; +39 0761 792415 Related content Where to see Europe's best hilltop towns Ginostra Ginostra sits within a natural amphitheater. Courtesy Silvia Marchetti Only accessible by foot, or boat, the isolated hamlet of Ginostra lies on a secluded flank of the volcanic isle of Stromboli, part of Sicily's Aeolian archipelago. The tiny village is made up of a handful of white and pastel-colored huts covered in prickly pears and bright red bougainvilleas that clash with its jet black rocks. According to legend, the village was built by a group of stranded sailors who took refuge here during a storm and were so struck by the beauty of the place that they never left. Today the population here is estimated at around 40. Visitors enter through a steep path of stone steps winding up from a tiny docking bay, wide enough for just two boats. Serving "volcanic dishes," restaurant L'Incontro is a village along with charming B&B Luna Rossa. L'Incontro, Via Sopra Pertuso, 98050 Ginostra; +39 090 981 2305 Luna Rossa, Via Piano, 3, 98050 Ginostra; +39 338 141 4620 Cetona Medieval hilltop town Cetona lies in Tuscany's Siena. Courtesy Silvia Marchetti Enticed by the slower pace of life and fresh air, Cetona is where the royals and fashion designers come to relax. Set in southern Tuscany and shaped like a snail, the ancient hilltop town is incredibly well kept. Starting at the magnificent Piazza Garibaldi, visitors can head up a narrow, paved road that circles round the tile roof houses and pretty churches, all the way to a panoramic castle tower complete with secret, exotic gardens. The village's surrounding countryside is known for its high-quality extra virgin olive oil. Historic family-run hotel restaurant Il Tiglio di Piazza is a great accommodation option. Il Tiglio di Piazza, Piazza Garibaldi, Cetona; +39 0578 23707 Malcesine Malcesine has Monte Baldo as its backdrop. Pixabay/Creative Commons Forget the holiday crowds. This corner of Veneto is one of Lake Garda's best kept secrets. Surrounded by olive groves and the gigantic Mount Baldo, Malcesine sits at the feet of a historic castle, Castello Scaligero. Nestled between the lake and the mountains, silence rules in this charming village, with its steep cobbled streets lined with artisan shops. Sunbathers relax on its pebble beaches, whiling away the hours as fishermen sell their catch nearby. Local restaurant La Vecchia Malcesine offers innovative twists on traditional recipes and B&B Casa Mosole is based in an interesting building that was once a cured meats shop. Vecchia Malcesine, Via Pisort, 6, 37018 Malcesine; +39 045 740 0469 Casa Mosole, Via Bottura, 3, 37018 Malcesine; +39 348 531 0790 Ventotene Ventotene -- a former prison island. Courtesy Silvia Marchetti This two-kilometer-long island close to Rome was once a prison, with lustful Roman women and anti-fascists among its detainees over the years. Bright orange and pink dwellings, former prisoner cells, mingle with ancient cisterns and fisheries in its small village. The little harbor is lined with fishermen grottoes that have been turned into lounge bars, while the main Piazza Castello features an old Bourbon fortress tower. The ruins of Julia's Villa, named after the daughter of Emperor Augustus, exiled here by her father on charges of adultery, are still visible. Italian politician Altiero Spinelli, who became one of the European Union's founding fathers co-wrote the "Ventotene Manifesto" here in the village. Positioned within Piazza Castello, hotel restaurant Mezzatorre has a dining terrace overlooking the main Cala Nave beach. Hotel Mezzatorre, Piazza Castello, 5/6, 04020 Ventotene; +39 0771 85294 A year of the world'sBest BeachesThere's a perfect beach for every week of the year. 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0.999729	Miniature wargaming is a form of wargaming in which military units are represented by miniature physical models on a model battlefield. The use of physical models to represent military units is in contrast to other tabletop wargames that use abstract pieces such as counters or blocks, or computer wargames which use virtual models. The primary benefit of using models is aesthetics, though in certain wargames the size and shape of the models can have practical consequences on how the match plays out. Miniature wargaming is generally a recreational form of wargaming because issues concerning scale can compromise realism, making it unsuitable for most serious military applications. Contents 1 Overview 2 Models 2.1 Assembly and painting 2.2 Proprietary models vs generic models 3 Playing field 4 Scale 4.1 Model size 4.2 Abstract scaling 4.3 Time 5 Rulesets 5.1 Role-playing games 5.2 Naval wargames 5.3 Air wargames 6 History 6.1 Precursors 6.2 Birth 6.3 Post-War growth 6.4 Commercial wargames with proprietary models 7 Community and culture 7.1 Organizations 7.2 Wargamers and designers 8 See also 9 References 10 External links Overview[edit] A miniature wargame is played with miniature models of soldiers, artillery, and vehicles on a model of a battlefield. The benefit of using models as opposed to abstract pieces is primarily an aesthetic one. Models offer a visually-pleasing way of identifying the units on the battlefield. In most miniature wargame systems, the model itself may be irrelevant as far as the rules are concerned; what really matters is the dimensions of the base that the model is mounted on. Distances between infantry units are measured from the base of the model.[1] The exception to this trend may be models of vehicles such as tanks, which do not require a base to be stable and have naturally rectangular shapes; in such cases, the distances between units may be measured from the edge of the model itself. Some miniature wargames use the dimensions of the model to determine whether a target behind cover is within line-of-fire of an attacker. Most miniature wargames are turn-based. Players take turns to move their model warriors across the model battlefield and declare attacks on the opponent. In most miniature wargames, the outcomes of fights between units are resolved through simple arithmetic, usually combined with dice rolls or playing cards. All historical wargames have a setting that is based on some historical era of warfare. The setting determines what kind of units the players can deploy in their match. For instance, a wargame set in the Napoleonic Wars should use models of Napoleonic-era soldiers, wielding muskets and cannons, and not spears or automatic rifles. A fantasy wargame has a fictional setting and may thus feature fictional or anachronistic armaments, but the setting should be similar enough to some real historical era of warfare so as to preserve a reasonable degree of realism.[2] For instance, Warhammer Age of Sigmar is mostly based on medieval warfare, but includes supernatural elements such as wizards and dragons. The most popular historical settings are World War 2, the Napoleonic Wars, and the American Civil War (in that order).[3] The most popular fantasy setting is Warhammer 40,000.[4][5] Miniature wargames are played either at the skirmish level or the tactical level. At the skirmish level, the player controls the warriors individually, whereas in a tactical level game he or she controls groups of warriors—typically the model warriors are mounted in groups on the same base. Miniature wargames are not played at the strategic or operational level because at that scale the models would become imperceptibly tiny. Miniature wargames are generally played for recreation, as the physical limitations of the medium prevents it from representing modern warfare accurately enough for use in military instruction and research (see the section below on abstract scaling for one reason). Models[edit] Wargaming miniatures are usually sold in parts, with plastic ones still attached to their sprues. The parts must be cut out and glued together. The assembly and painting of models is a major aspect of the hobby, as much as the actual game. Generic models of American GIs, for use in any World War 2 game. A proprietary-design model of a Stormcast Eternal, meant exclusively for use in Warhammer Age of Sigmar. Historically, these models were commonly made of tin or lead, but nowadays they are usually made of polystyrene or resin. Plastic models are cheaper to mass-produce but require a larger investment because they require expensive steel molds. Lead and tin models, by contrast, can be cast in cheap rubber molds. Larger firms such as Games Workshop prefer to produce plastic models, whereas smaller firms with less money prefer metal models.[6] Wargaming figurines often come with unrealistic body proportions. Their hands may be oversized, or their rifles excessively thick. One reason for this is to make the models more robust: thicker parts are less likely to bend or break. Another reason is that manufacturing methods often stipulate a minimum thickness for casting because molten plastic has difficulty flowing through thin channels in the mold. Finally, odd proportions may actually make the model look better for its size by accentuating certain features that the human eye focuses on.[7] Assembly and painting[edit] See also: Figure painting (hobby) Wargaming models are often sold in parts. In the case of plastic models, they're often sold still affixed to their sprues. The player is expected to cut out the parts and glue them together. This is the norm because, depending on the design of the model, it may not be possible to mold it whole, and selling the parts un-assembled saves on labor costs. After assembling the model, the player should then paint it to make it more presentable and easier to identify on the game table. Understandably, the time and skill involved in assembling and painting models deters many people from miniature wargaming. Some firms have tried to address this by selling pre-assembled and pre-painted models, but these are rare because, with current technologies, it's hard to mass-produce ready-to-play miniatures that are both cheap and match the beauty of hand-painted models.[8] The other options for players are to buy finished models second-hand or hire a professional painter. Proprietary models vs generic models[edit] Historical miniature wargames are typically designed to use generic models. It's generally not possible to copyright the look of a historical soldier. Anyone, for instance, may freely produce miniature models of Napoleonic infantrymen. A player of a Napoleonic-era wargame could thus obtain his models from any manufacturer who produces Napoleonic models at the requisite scale. Consequently, it's difficult if not impossible for a historical wargame designer to oblige players to buy models from a certain manufacturer. By contrast, fantasy wargames feature fictional warriors, and fictional characters can be copyrighted. By incorporating original characters into their wargame, a wargame designer can oblige the player to purchase their models from a specific manufacturer who is licensed to produce the requisite models. An example of this is Warhammer 40,000 which features many original characters who have a distinctive aesthetic, and Games Workshop and its subsidiaries reserve the exclusive right to manufacture models of these characters. Games Workshop models tend to be expensive because competing manufacturers are not allowed to offer cheaper copies of official Warhammer 40,000 models. While there's nothing to stop players using foreign wargaming models (generics or proprietary models from other wargames), doing so could spoil the aesthetic and cause confusion. Playing field[edit] A miniature wargame is played on a model of a battlefield. The model battlefield is usually mounted on a table. As far as size goes, every part of the battlefield should be within arm's reach of the players—a width of four feet is recommended.[9][10][11] Most miniature wargames are played on custom-made battlefields made using modular terrain models. Historical wargamers sometimes re-enact historical battles, but this is relatively rare. Players more often prefer to design their own scenarios. The first advantage is that they can design a scenario that fits the resources they have at hand, whereas reconstructing a historical battle may require them to purchase additional models and rulebooks, and perhaps a larger gaming table. The second advantage is that a fictional scenario can be designed such that either player has a fair chance of winning.[12] Miniature wargames are rarely set in urban environments. The first reason is that it's harder to reach models when there are many buildings in the way. Another reason is that the buildings may highlight the abstract scale at which the wargame operates. For instance, in the 28mm wargame Bolt Action, a rifle's range is 24 inches, which is barely the length of a few houses at 28mm scale. If placed in an urban environment, a rifleman would not be able to hit a target at the far end of a small street, which shatters the illusion of realism.[13] Scale[edit] Model size[edit] 2mm wargaming models. The scale of a model vehicle can be expressed as a scale ratio. A scale ratio of 1:100 means that 1 cm represents 100 cm; at this scale, if a model car is 4.5 cm long, then it represents a real car that is 4.5 m long. When it comes to figurines of humans, the preferred method of expressing scale is the height of a figurine in millimeters. There is no standardized system of measuring figurine size in the wargaming hobby. Some manufacturers measure the height of a figurine up to the crown of the head, whereas others may measure it up to the eyes (the latter is more sensible if the figurine is wearing a hat).[14] Furthermore, the advertised scale of a model may not reflect its actual scale. In order to make their products stand out against their competitors, some manufacturers make their models a little oversized, e.g. a model from a certain manufacturer that is advertised as suitable for 28mm wargames could actually be 30mm tall in practice. This makes the model look more imposing, and allows for more detail.[15] Manufacturers of generic wargaming models are generally obliged to build their models to some standard scale so as to ensure compatibility with third-party wargames. Manufacturers who make proprietary models designed exclusively for use in a specific wargame do not have this concern. For instance, Warhammer 40,000 officially does not have a scale. It doesn't need to conform to a standard scale, because Games Workshop is the exclusive manufacturer of official Warhammer 40,000 models, said models are intended exclusively for use in Warhammer 40,000, and Games Workshop doesn't want players using foreign models from other manufacturers. Figurine sizes and roughly equivalent scale ratios[a] mm 90 54 45 28 25.4(1") 25 20 15 6 2 scale 1:20 1:33 1:40 1:64 1:72 1:73 1:89 1:120 1:300 1:890 Abstract scaling[edit] Most miniature wargames do not have an absolute scale, i.e. where the figurines, terrain, movement and firing ranges all conform to single scale ratio. This is largely because of the need to compress the battle into the confined space of a table surface. Instead, miniature wargames prefer to use abstract scaling. For example, a 28mm model rifleman realistically ought to be able to hit a target from 20 feet away,[b] but this is larger than most tables. A miniature wargame would not be much fun if the models could shoot each other from opposite ends of the table, and thus not have to maneuver around the battlefield. The 28mm wargame Bolt Action solves this problem by compressing the range of a rifle to just 24 inches;[10] likewise, a sub-machine gun's range is 12 inches and a pistol's range is 6 inches.[16] These ranges may not be realistic, but at least their proportions do make intuitive sense, giving an illusion of realism. Abstract scaling may also be applied to figures and terrain features, e.g. model houses and trees may be a little undersized compared the scale so as to make more room on the table for the warriors. Like wise model figures will often be oversize for the scale, for example many games use 25 mm figures appropriate to a 1:60 scale when the game is played at a larger scale such as 1:360. Time[edit] Most miniature wargames do not have a fixed time scale (i.e. how many seconds a turn represents). Most wargame rulebooks instead prefer to define how far a unit can move in a turn, and this movement range is proportioned to the size of a typical game table. For example, Bolt Action sets a movement range of six inches in a turn for most units. Rulesets[edit] Main article: List of miniature wargames There are many miniature wargaming rulesets, not all of which are currently in print, including some which are available free on the internet; many gamers also write their own, creating so-called "house rules" or "club sets". Most rulesets are intended for a specific historical period or fictional genre. Rules also vary in the model scale they use: one infantry figure may represent one man, one squad, or much larger numbers of actual troops. Wargaming in general owes its origins to military simulations, most famously to the Prussian staff training system Kriegsspiel. Consequently, rules designers struggle with the perceived obligation to actually 'simulate' something, and with the seldom compatible necessity to make an enjoyable 'game'. Historical battles were seldom fair or even, and the potential detail that can be brought to bear to represent this in a set of rules always comes at the cost of pace of the game and enjoyment. In Osprey Publishing's book about the Battle of Crécy, from its series on historical campaigns, there is included a detailed section on wargaming the battle, in which Stuart Asquith writes: When refighting a particular battle, it is important to adhere as closely as possible to the original historical engagement. The counter-argument is that the wargamer(s) know who is going to win. Fair comment, but knowing the outcome of any battle does not usually prevent one from reading about that action, so why should such knowledge debar a refight?[17] He adds that unless at least the initial moves are recreated, "then an interesting medieval battle may well take place, but it will not be a re-creation of Crécy."[17] Still, rules aimed at the non-professional hobby market therefore inevitably contain abstractions. It is generally in the area of the abstraction liberties taken by the designers that the differences between rules can be found. Most follow tried and true conventions to the extent that a chess player would recognize wargaming merely as a different scaled version of his or her own game. Role-playing games[edit] Main article: Role-playing game During the 1960s and 1970s, two new trends in wargaming emerged: First were small-unit rules sets which allowed individual players to portray small units down to even a single figure. These rules expanded the abilities of the smaller units accordingly, to magnify their effect on the overall battle. Second was an interest in fantasy miniatures wargaming. J.R.R. Tolkien's novel The Hobbit and his epic cycle The Lord of the Rings were gaining strong interest in the United States, and as a result, rules were quickly developed to play medieval and Roman-era wargames, where these eras had previously been largely ignored in favor of Napoleonic and American Civil War gaming. The two converged in a set of miniatures rules entitled Chainmail, published by a tiny company called Guidon Games, headquartered in Lake Geneva, Wisconsin. Later, in 1974, TSR designer E. Gary Gygax wrote a set of rules for individual characters under Chainmail, and entitled it Dungeons & Dragons. Further developments ensued, and the role-playing game hobby quickly became distinct from the wargaming hobby which preceded it. Naval wargames[edit] Main article: Naval wargaming Although generally less popular than wargames set on land, naval wargaming nevertheless enjoys a degree of support around the world. Model ships have long been used for wargaming, but it was the introduction of elaborate rules in the early 20th century that made the hobby more popular. Small miniature ships, often in 1:1200 scale and 1:1250 scale, were maneuvered on large playing surfaces to recreate historical battles. Prior to World War II, firms such as Bassett-Lowke in England and the German company Wiking marketed these to the public.[18][19] After World War II, several manufacturers started business in Germany, which remains the center of production to this day,[20] while other companies started in England and the United States. Rules can vary greatly between game systems; both in complexity and era. Historical rulesets range from the ancient and medieval ships to the fleets of the Age of Sail and the modern era. Often the hobbyists have to provide their own models of ships. The 1972 game, Don't Give Up The Ship!, called for pencil and paper, six-sided dice, rulers and protractors, and model ships, ideally of 1:1200 scale. The elaborate rules cover morale, sinking, fires, broken masts, and boarding. Dice determined wind speed and direction, and hence the ship's speed and the use of its cannon by measuring angles with the protractor.[21] In naval wargaming of the modern period, General Quarters, primarily (though not exclusively) using six-sided dice, has established itself as one of the leading sets of World War I and II era rules.[22] Some land-based miniature wargames have also been adapted to naval wargaming. All at Sea, for example, is an adaptation of The Lord of the Rings Strategy Battle Game rules for naval conflicts. The game's mechanics centered around boarding parties, with options for ramming actions and siege engines.[23] As such, the ship's scale ratio corresponds to the 25 mm scale miniatures used by The Lord of the Rings. Model ships are built by hobbyists, just as normal miniature terrain, such as "great ships" of Pelargir, cogs of Dol Amroth and Corsair galleys.[24] Air wargames[edit] Wings of War, which simulates World War 1 aerial combat. Main article: Air wargaming Air wargaming, like naval wargaming, is a smaller niche within the larger hobby of miniatures wargaming. Aerial combat has developed over a relatively short time compared with naval or land warfare. As such, air wargaming tends to break down into three broad periods: World War I – from the earliest days of air combat to the 1920s World War II – 1930s to the early 1950s "Modern" – the missile age In addition there are science fiction and "alternative history" games such as Aeronefs and those in the Crimson Skies universe. History[edit] Precursors[edit] See also: History of Wargaming Wargaming was invented in Prussia near the end of the 18th century. The earliest wargames were based on chess; the pieces represented real military units (artillery, cavalry, etc.) and squares on the board were color-coded to represent different terrain types. Later wargames used realistic maps over which troop pieces could move in a free-form manner, and instead of chess-like sculpted pieces they used little rectangular blocks because they were played at smaller scales (e.g. 1:8000). The Prussian army formally adopted wargaming as a training tool in 1824. After Prussia defeated France in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870, wargaming spread around the world and was played enthusiastically by both officers and civilians. Birth[edit] In 1881, the Scottish writer Robert Louis Stevenson became the first documented person to use toy soldiers in a wargame, and thus he might be the inventor of miniature wargaming. Stevenson never published his rules, but according to an account by his stepson, they were very sophisticated and realistic, on par with German military wargames. Stevenson played his wargame on the floor, on a map drawn with chalk.[25] H. G. Wells and his friends playing Little Wars. The English writer H. G. Wells developed his own codified rules for playing with toy soldiers, which he published in a book titled Little Wars (1913). This is widely remembered as the first rulebook for miniature wargaming. Little Wars had very simple rules to make it fun and accessible to anyone. Little Wars did not use dice or computation to resolve fights. For artillery attacks, players used spring-loaded toy cannons which fired little wooden cylinders to physically knock over enemy models. As for infantry and cavalry, they could only engage in hand-to-hand combat (even if the figurines exhibited firearms). When two infantry units fought in close quarters, the units would suffer non-random losses determined by their relative sizes. Little Wars was designed for a large field of play, such as a lawn or the floor of a large room, because the toy soldiers available to Wells were too large for tabletop play. An infantryman could move up to one foot per turn, and a cavalryman could move up to two feet per turn. To measure these distances, players used a two-foot long piece of string. Wells was also the first wargamer to use models of buildings, trees, and other terrain features to create a three-dimensional battlefield.[26] Wells' rulebook was for a long time regarded as the standard system by which other miniature wargames were judged. However, the nascent miniature wargaming community would remain very small for a long time to come. A possible reason was the two World Wars, which de-glamorized war and caused shortages of tin and lead that made model soldiers expensive.[27][28] Another reason may have been the lack of magazines or clubs dedicated to miniature wargames. Miniature wargaming was seen as a niche within the larger hobby of making and collecting model soldiers. Post-War growth[edit] In 1955, a California man named Jack Scruby began making inexpensive miniature models for miniature wargames out of type metal. Scruby's major contribution to the miniature wargaming hobby was to network players across America and the UK. At the time, the miniature wargaming community was minuscule, and players struggled to find each other. In 1956, Scruby organized the first miniature wargaming convention in America, which was attended by just fourteen people. From 1957 to 1962, he self-published the world's first miniature wargaming magazine, titled The War Game Digest, through which wargamers could publish their rules and share game reports. It had less than two hundred subscribers, but it did establish a community that kept growing.[29] Around the same time in the United Kingdom, Donald Featherstone began writing an influential series of books on wargaming, which represented the first mainstream published contribution to wargaming since Little Wars. Titles included : War Games (1962), Advanced Wargames, Solo Wargaming, Wargame Campaigns, Battles with Model Tanks, Skirmish Wargaming. Such was the popularity of such titles that other authors were able to have published wargaming titles. This output of published wargaming titles from British authors coupled with the emergence at the same time of several manufacturers providing suitable wargame miniatures (e.g. Miniature Figurines, Hinchliffe, Peter Laing, Garrisson, Skytrex, Davco, Heroic & Ros) was responsible for the huge upsurge of popularity of the hobby in the late 1960s and into the 1970s.[30] In 1956, Tony Bath published what was the first ruleset for a miniature wargame set in the medieval period. In 1971, Gary Gygax developed his own miniature wargame system for medieval warfare called Chainmail. Gygax later produced a supplement for Chainmail that added magic and fantasy creatures, making this the first fantasy miniature wargame. This supplement was inspired by the growing popularity of the Lord of the Rings novels by J. R. R. Tolkien. Gygax later went on to develop the first tabletop role-playing game: Dungeons and Dragons. Dungeons and Dragons was a story-driven game, but adapted wargaming rules to model the fights players could get in. Battles in Dungeons and Dragons rarely featured more than a dozen combatants, so the combat rules were designed to model the capabilities of the warriors in very great detail. Strictly speaking, Dungeons and Dragons did not require miniature models to play, but many players found that using miniature models made the fights easier to arbitrate and more immersive. Commercial wargames with proprietary models[edit] In 1983, a British company called Games Workshop released a fantasy miniature wargame called Warhammer,[c] which was the first miniature wargame designed to use proprietary models. Games Workshop at the time made miniature models for use in Dungeons and Dragons. Warhammer was meant to encourage customers to buy more of these models. Whereas miniature models were optional in Dungeons and Dragons, Warhammer mandated their use and the battles tended to be larger.[31] Initially, Warhammer had a threadbare fictional setting and used generic stock characters common to fantasy fiction, but as time went on, Games Workshop expanded the setting with original characters with distinctive visual designs. Games Workshop's official line of models for Warhammer eventually took on such a distinctive look that rival manufacturers could not produce similar-looking models without risking a lawsuit over copyright infringement. Although there was nothing to stop players of Warhammer from using foreign models from third-party manufacturers, doing so could spoil the aesthetic and cause confusion. In 1987, Games Workshop released a fantasy miniature wargame called Warhammer 40,000, which was a science-fiction spinoff of Warhammer. Like Warhammer, Warhammer 40,000 obliged players to buy proprietary models from Games Workshop. Warhammer 40,000 became even more successful than Warhammer. The success of the Warhammer games promoted the sales of Games Workshop's line of gaming models. Other gaming companies sought to emulate Games Workshop's business model. Examples include Fantasy Flight Games, Privateer Press, and Warlord Games, all of which have released their own miniature wargame systems that were designed to promote sales of their respective lines of proprietary gaming models. This business model has proven lucrative, and thanks to the marketing resources of these companies, fantasy wargames have displaced historical wargames in popularity. Community and culture[edit] A miniature wargaming convention (Games Day Budapest 2015). Players of miniature wargames tend to be more extroverted than players of board wargames and computer wargames.[32][33] Players of miniature wargames are obliged to meet in each other in person and play in the same room around a table, whereas board wargames can be played via correspondence and computer wargames can be played online; therefore miniature wargaming places a premium on sociability. (This has changed somewhat with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Wargamers (miniature and board) have become quite creative in devising ways to play games while maintaining social distancing.)[34] Consequently, conventions and clubs are important to the wargaming community. Some conventions have become very large affairs, such as Gen-Con, Origins and Historical Miniatures Gaming Society's Historicon, called the "mother of all wargaming conventions".[33] Players also tend to be middle-aged or older. One reason is that the hobby is expensive and older people tend to be wealthier. Organizations[edit] International Wargames Federation (IWF) promotes historical wargaming competitions between players or teams from different countries. Johnny Reb Gaming Society – the leading international gaming society devoted exclusively to wargaming the American Civil War; publishes the quarterly CHARGE! newsletter for members of the society. Wargame Developments (WD) was founded by game designer and author Paddy Griffith in 1980, and is an international group dedicated to developing all types of wargames. It publishes a journal, The Nugget, nine times per year and holds an annual 3-day long conference – COW (The Conference of Wargamers) – every July. Historical Miniatures Gaming Society (HMGS) - HMGS, Inc. is a non-profit, charitable and educational 501(c)3 organization whose purpose is to promote the study of military history through the art of tabletop miniature wargaming. HMGS holds several of the largest wargaming conventions in the United States annually. Mind Sports South Africa started as the South African Wargames Union in 1984. It was the first wargaming body to have wargames recognized as a sport in the same way as which chess is so recognized. As a result, South African teams were awarded Springbok Colours (1991–1994) and Protea Colours (1995 to date). The Solo Wargamers Association (SWA) founded in 1976 supports solo players in all branches of wargaming – historical, science fiction, fantasy, miniatures, board games etc. Publishes a quarterly journal Lone Warrior. The British Historical Games Society (BHGS) promotes historical wargaming in Britain, holding events including tournaments periodically. The War Gaming Society (WGS) was founded in May 1975. The Joaquin Valley War Gaming Association (SJVWGA), founded in 1972 by Jack Scruby, Ray Jackson and other miniature wargamers, is a subdivision of the War Gaming Society. The Society of Ancients, founded in the '60s, promoting ancient wargaming and historical research through Slingshot, the society journal. Warhammer Player's Society. Dedicated to all versions (Fantasy, Ancients and Science-Fiction) of Warhammer Society of Twentieth Century Wargamers. (SOTCW) covers all periods 1900 – present [land, sea or air] the society has a magazine, The Journal, which is produced quarterly. Society of Fantasy and Science Fiction Wargamers (SFSFW). For fantastical and future, including retro-future, wargames. Publishers of Ragnarok magazine. Naval Wargames Society. The NWS is an international society devoted to the advancement of naval wargames, publishing a quarterly journal, Battlefleet. Wargamers and designers[edit] Little Wars, by H. G. Wells (1913). H.G. Wells – Known as the "Father of Miniature Wargaming" and author of the miniature wargaming classic Little Wars.[35] Jack Scruby – The "Father of Modern Miniature Wargaming".[36] Popularized modern miniature wargaming and organized perhaps the first miniatures convention in 1956. Jack Scruby was also a manufacturer of military miniatures whose efforts led to a rebirth of the miniature wargaming hobby in the late 1950s. Gary Gygax – Co-creator of Dungeons & Dragons and a number of miniature wargames. Dave Arneson – Co-creator of Dungeons & Dragons MAR Barker -Creator of Tekumel: Empire of the Petal Throne, professor, linguist, and author. Peter Cushing -Actor, and star of films. Duke Seifried – Sculptor of over 10,000 miniatures, one of the earliest American miniature manufacturers: Heritage, Custom Cast, Der Kreigspielers Napoleonic, and Fantastiques Fantasy Figures. Bruce Rea Taylor - Designer of the Firefly, Challenger, Corps Commander and Korps Commander rules. Charles Grant – Author and founder member of the UK wargaming scene in the 1960s. Helped popularize miniature wargaming. Donald Featherstone – A respected military historian,[37] introduced to the hobby in 1955.[38] Since then, he was one of the most prolific authors on the subject, and very influential in the development of the hobby. Fletcher Pratt – Science fiction writer (often in collaboration with L. Sprague de Camp) and originator of a popular set of rules for naval miniature wargaming. Kevin Cabai-Armor Officer and wagamer- Kevin has used in many years in the Armor Branch to write a number of highly realistic and yet playable rules sets. His first Jagdpanzer- cover mechanized combat in World War II. The game was first seen at major conventions in 1985. It has been through a revised 2nd edition and is widely available. Sand Oil and Blood- was co-authored, with Marty Fenelon. It was the modern warfare version of tank combat. Already in the works to be published during Desert Shield, it was released 30 days after Desert Storm. Finally Mekong- A rule set covering Riverine Warfare in Viet Nam. Again co-authored with Marty Fenelon, it was picked up and sold by GHQ. Terry Wise- Historian and writer- many Osprey publications to his credit along with the seminal "Introduction to Battlegaming" of 1969. Published rules for Ancients, Pike and Shot and American Civil wargaming that are fast, fun and easy to use. Walter ("Wally") Simon – One of the original founders of the Historical Miniature Gaming Society. First President of HMGS and Organizer of the Potomac Wargamers, publisher of the PW Review. Dick Bryant – Co-founder with Wally Simon of HMGS and editor since 1969 of The Courier Miniature Wargaming Magazine. His editorial in that magazine castigating GAMA for choosing cardboard counters as "The Best New Historical Miniature" started the search for an organization that supported and promulgated the hobby of Historical Miniature Wargaming that resulted in the "Meeting in Wally's Basement" that was the initialization of HMGS. David Waxtel – Publisher of over 20 sets of rules, and supplement books. George Gush – Noted for A Guide to Wargaming (1980) as well as the WRG Renaissance Rules John Hill – Known for his classic Squad Leader and other Avalon Hill board games, also the author of the popular Johnny Reb miniatures rules. Raymond ("Ray") James Jackson – Author of Classic Napoleonics, an "Old School" set of miniature wargame rules which have been in existence since 1961. Chairman and CEO of both HMGS-West and the War Gaming Society. A miniature wargamer since 1958. Frank Chadwick – Author of the Command Decision and Volley & Bayonet rules, Space: 1889 and Traveller, and co-founder of Game Designers' Workshop. Gene McCoy – Founder of the Wargamers Digest magazine and creator of the Wargamers Digest WW2 Rules game framework. Phil Barker – Founder of the Wargames Research Group, and inventor of the De Bellis Antiquitatis game series. Arty Conliffe – Designer of Armati, Crossfire, Spearhead, Shako and Tactica rules. Bob Jones – Founder of Piquet and designer of the Piquet wargame series. Brigadier Peter Young, DSO, MC – Highly decorated World War II commando leader, commander of the 9th Regiment of the Arab Legion, founder of the Sealed Knot English Civil War reenactment society, Reader of Military History at Sandhurst, author of several books on military history, also author of Charge! Or How to Play Wargames and The War Game: Ten Great Battles Recreated from History. Phil Dunn – Founder of the Naval Wargames Society and author of Sea Battle Games. John McEwan – Creator of the first science fiction ground combat miniatures game Starguard! in 1974 along with over 200 figures and models for this game. Tony Bath – Author and veteran wargamer, founding member of the Society of Ancients, best known as umpire of one of the longest running and well known of all wargames campaigns, set in the fictional land of Hyboria. David Manley – Author of many sets of naval rules including Action Stations, Fire When Ready, Iron and Fire, Bulldogs Away, and Form Line of Battle, as well as numerous articles and technical papers on naval wargaming, history, and warship design. Richard Clarke - founder of TooFatLardies and author of many award winning rule sets including Chain of Command, Sharp Practice, I Ain’t Been Shot Mum, Infamy, Infamy! and Dux Britanniarum. Awarded the HMGS Legion of Honor. Scott Mingus – founder of the international Johnny Reb Gaming Society and one of the world's most prolific authors of American Civil War scenario books. Neville Dickinson – One of the original members of the UK wargaming scene and founder of Miniature Figurines, the first firm in the UK to popularize metal miniatures. Larry Brom - designer of The Sword and The Flame, one of the most popular colonial era wargames. Andy Chambers – Known for his work in rules design and revision for Games Workshop Inc. and Mongoose Publishing. Notable games he helped develop include Warhammer 40,000 and Starship Troopers: The Miniatures Game. Bryan Ansell - Creator of Laserburn, Rules with No Name, co-creator/co-author of Warhammer, author Warhammer 40,000 and a host of other game credits. Associated primarily with Games Workshop and Citade Miniatures, also Asgard Miniatures Rick Priestley – co-creator/co-author of Warhammer, author Warhammer 40,000 and a host of other game credits. Associated primarily with Games Workshop and Citadel but earlier work included co-authoring the seminal fantasy wargame rulebook Reaper. Rusty Gronewold – Lead designer with Tactical Command Games, has developed many different miniature games, such as Stellar Fire, Legions Unleashed, Conflict 2000, Stellar Conflicts & Uprisings, Gunslingers & Desperados, Pirates & Buccaneers just to name a few. Paddy Griffith - Military historian and founder of Wargame Developments, he devised and ran the first Megagames as well as many experimental wargames that were designed to give military historians a greater insight into how battles and campaigns were actually fought. Many of his wargames posed ethical and moral dilemmas for the players and challenged orthodox thinking. Alessio Cavatore - Writer of many popular rulesets. Famous for his work with Games Workshop, Mantic and Warlord. Lorenzo Giusti - One of the most popular Fantasy Football sculptors with over 800 figures and models for these kind of games, founder and owner of Greebo Games See also[edit] Simulation game Nation-simulation game Grand strategy Fantasy wargame Tabletop game List of miniature wargames List of wargame publishers Scale model Computer and video games Computer-assisted gaming Card game Dice game References[edit] ^ This table assumes the figurine represents a 1.78m man, which is the average height of a modern European man, and that the figurine is measured from the base of the feet to the crown of the head. ^ If one assumes that the 28mm scale corresponds to a ratio of 1:64, then an M1 Garand rifle, which has an effective range of about 500 yards, should be able to hit a target 23 feet away at this scale. ^ It was originally titled Warhammer Fantasy Battle, then shortened to simply Warhammer in subsequent editions, and often referred to as Warhammer Fantasy to better distinguish it from Warhammer 40,000. It was supplanted by Warhammer Age of Sigmar, which is officially a new product line but uses the same setting as Warhammer Fantasy. ^ Priestley & Lambshead (2016), p. 31 ^ Priestley & Lambshead (2016), p. 12 ^ Bill Gray (December 26, 2018). "2018 TABLETOP YEAR IN REVIEW". www.wargamer.com. Retrieved March 23, 2019. So far as I can tell, the three most popular conflicts in historical miniatures wargaming remains first to third, World War II, Napoleonic and American Civil War. ^ "Top 5 Non-Collectible Miniature Games - Spring 2018". icv2.com. July 30, 2018. ^ "Top 5 Non-Collectible Miniature Games - Fall 2017". icv2.com. March 9, 2018. ^ Tabletop Minions (December 2, 2016). Plastic Versus Metal Miniatures. YouTube. ^ Priestley & Lambshead (2016), p. 24-25 ^ Tabletop Minions (July 28, 2017). Is There a Real Future in Pre-painted Minis?. YouTube. ^ Warhammer 40,000 (core rulebook, 8th edition), p 214 ^ a b Priestley & Lambshead (2016), p. 29 ^ Richard Bodley Scott; Simon Hall; Terry Shaw (2008). Field of Glory. Osprey Publishing. ISBN 978-1-84603-313-1. p. 12 ^ Priestley & Lambshead (2016), p. 9-11 ^ Priestley & Lambshead (2016), p. 32 ^ Priestley & Lambshead (2016), p. 21 ^ Priestley & Lambshead (2016), p. 25 ^ Alessio Cavatore; Rick Priestley (2012). Bolt Action: World War II Wargame Rules. Osprey Publishing Ltd. ISBN 978-1-78096-875-9. p. 45 ^ a b Crécy 1346: Triumph of the longbow, p 93-94 ^ Head, Derek. Bassett-Lowke Waterline Ship Models London 1996 ISBN 1-872727-72-7 ^ Schönfeld, Peter Wiking-Modelle Die Schiffe und Flugseuge Hamburg 1998 ISBN 3-7822-0731-9 ^ "1250 History". www.steelnavy.com. Retrieved May 20, 2020. ^ Don't Give Up The Ship!, 1st Edition, 1972, Guidon Games, 50 pages, blue & black cover ^ Survey of Naval Wargames Rules, NWS journal "Battlefleet" 1996 ^ Nick Davis. "All At Sea Part One". Ruleset. White Dwarf. Archived from the original on October 9, 2007. Retrieved June 14, 2007. ^ "The Ports of Pelargir". Website. Archived from the original on March 13, 2007. Retrieved June 14, 2007. ^ Robert Louis Stevenson; Lloyd Osbourne (December 1898). "Stevenson at Play (With an Introduction by Lloyd Osbourne)". Scribner's Magazine. Vol. 24 no. 6. pp. 709–719. ^ H. G. Wells (1913). Little Wars ^ "Make It Do – Metal Shortages During World War II". www.sarahsundin.com. July 11, 2011. ^ "History of the British Model Soldier Society". www.bmssonline.com. ^ Jon Peterson, in Harrigan & Kirschenbaum (2016), p. 19 harvp error: no target: CITEREFHarriganKirschenbaum2016 (help) ^ See James Dunnigan's Foreword to Donald Featherstone's Lost Tales, published 2009. Dunnigan clearly places Featherstone in his role as a key propagator of wargaming as a hobby and tool for professionals. ^ "Interview with Rick Priestley". Juegos y Dados. August 26, 2016. Retrieved March 23, 2019. What Bryan realised was that Citadel could sell a lot more models if there was a battle game that would enable players to field dozens or hundreds of models at once. Bryan asked Richard Halliwell to come up with a game, and because we always worked together on projects, Richard and I came up with the game that would become Warhammer. ^ Bill Gray (December 26, 2018). "2018 TABLETOP YEAR IN REVIEW". www.wargamer.com. Retrieved March 23, 2019. Finally, and very unlike board and video wargaming, miniatures is very much an extrovert’s hobby with half the fun of any game being the banter and interaction of the eight chaps pushing lead on the table. Here, miniatures seems to have more in common with model railroading than with other wargaming genres, and this provides a solid bulwark against digital assault. ^ a b "What is Wargaming?". Article. HMGS. Archived from the original on June 9, 2007. Retrieved June 16, 2007. ^ "Wargaming from home". Retrieved October 28, 2020. ^ The Miniatures Page. The World of Miniatures – An Overview. ^ "The Courier's TIMELINE OF THE HISTORICAL MINIATURES WARGAMING HOBBY". www-personal.umich.edu. Retrieved May 20, 2020. ^ Sadler, p 27 ^ "It is with deep regret that we announce the passing of one of the old guard of the hobby". Retrieved May 20, 2020. David Nicolle & Stuart Asquith, Crécy 1346: Triumph of the longbow, Osprey Publishing Paperback; June 25, 2000; ISBN 978-1-85532-966-9 Sadler, John (2006). Flodden 1513: Scotland's greatest defeat (Campaign 168). Osprey Publishing. ISBN 978-1-84176-959-2. Michael J. Tresca (2010). The Evolution of Fantasy Role-Playing Games. McFarland. ISBN 9780786460090. Schuurman, Paul (2017). "Models of war 1770–1830: the birth of wargames and the trade-off between realism and simplicity". History of European Ideas. 43 (5): 442–455. doi:10.1080/01916599.2017.1366928. Rick Priestley; John Lambshead (2016). Tabletop Wargames: A Designers' and Writers' Handbook. Pen & Sword Books Limited. ISBN 9781783831487. External links[edit] What is wargaming? History and discussion of wargaming and miniature wargaming. v t e Scale modeling Architectural models Building models Brass models Diecast models Dioramas Dollhouse Gundam model Heavy equipment modelling Matchstick models Miniature arts Miniature wargaming Model aircraft Model cars Model commercial vehicles Model construction vehicles Model figures Model horses Model military vehicles Model robots Model rockets Plastic models Model ships Model trains Room box List of scale model kit manufacturers Kitbashing Category v t e Wargames Military wargaming Military wargaming Kriegsspiel Western Approaches Tactical Unit Sigma war games Recreational wargaming Recreational wargaming Miniature wargame Board wargame Computer wargame Naval wargaming Pioneers 19th century pioneers Johann Hellwig (1743–1831) Georg von Reisswitz (1794–1827) Julius von Verdy du Vernois (1832–1910) William McCarty Little (1845–1915) 20th century developers H. G. Wells (1866–1946) Jack Scruby (1916–1988) Don Featherstone (1918–2013) Tony Bath (1926–2000) Charles S. Roberts (1930–2010) Allan B. Calhamer (1931–2013) Phil Barker (born 1932) Gary Gygax (1938–2008) Redmond Simonsen (1942–2005) Jim Dunnigan (born 1943) Richard Berg (1943-2019) John Hill (1945–2015) Tom Dalgliesh (born 1945) S. Craig Taylor (1946–2012) Paddy Griffith (1947–2010) Marc W. Miller (born 1947) Larry Harris, Jr. (born 1948) Don Greenwood Frank Chadwick Stephen V. Cole Greg Costikyan (born 1959) Gilbert Roberts (1900-1986) 21st century developers Craig Besinque Ty Bomba Richard Borg James M. Day Mike McVey Joseph Miranda Rick Priestley Andy Chambers Mark Simonitch Jerry Taylor Dan Verssen Martin Wallace Matt Ward Organizations Castle & Crusade Society Game Manufacturers Association International Federation of Wargaming International Wargames Federation Johnny Reb Gaming Society Naval Wargames Society Society of Twentieth Century Wargamers Events Charles S. Roberts Award Gen Con Origins Game Fair Origins Award World Boardgaming Championships Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Miniature_wargaming&oldid=1054012772" Categories: Miniature wargames Scale modeling Playscale miniaturism Hidden categories: Harv and Sfn no-target errors Use mdy dates from June 2013 Use American English from February 2014 All Wikipedia articles written in American English Articles with short description Short description is different from Wikidata Pages using multiple image with auto scaled images Navigation menu Personal tools Not logged in Talk Contributions Create account Log in Namespaces Article Talk Variants expanded collapsed Views Read Edit View history More expanded collapsed Search Navigation Main page Contents Current events Random article About Wikipedia Contact us Donate Contribute Help Learn to edit Community portal Recent changes Upload file Tools What links here Related changes Upload file Special pages Permanent link Page information Cite this page Wikidata item Print/export Download as PDF Printable version In other projects Wikimedia Commons Languages Alemannisch Català Dansk Deutsch Français Italiano Latina Nederlands 日本語 Norsk bokmål Polski Português Suomi Svenska 粵語 Edit links This page was last edited on 7 November 2021, at 14:40 (UTC). 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0.989371	Coronavirus is causing a disease of COVID-19 in many people. It is spreading very quickly over the world. Firstly it starts in Wuhan that is a city in China. Then it keeps transferring from people to people and almost spreads all over the world. Not a single country is saved from it. Almost all of the countries are the victims of Coronavirus. One of the main reasons that it is spreading at this speed is that it spreads from humans to humans. What are the tips to follow to stay safe from Coronavirus? There are many other recourses of the transformation of the virus. This includes objects to humans, animals to humans, import, and export of goods. You have to follow the safety measures to stop its spread. All of the countries take very initial steps to stop its transmission. One of the main reasons for failing these precautions is that people are not following them. Some misconceptions and rumors are causing problems to stop them from spreading. In the very first months of this pandemic, people take this virus seriously and follow these precautions. Then the virus starts vanishing out, but suddenly some misconceptions about the virus divert people’s focus from the virus. Now people are not taking it seriously, and the number of victims is increasing. You can’t just imagine how many COVID deaths in US happen in just a month. If we compare the death rate and the people who are suffering from the virus, it is crossing all the records in very few months. In bellow, we will discuss the death rates and the number of people suffering from the Coronavirus in different regions. Statistics of Coronavirus in the United States: In the beginning, the spread of Coronavirus was a little slow. But then the rate of the corona cases keeps increasing very quickly. The United States takes very initial steps to stop its spread. But it is spreading very fast. Almost half of the population suffers from the Coronavirus. To understand how many COVID deaths take place, you have to check the statistical graphs of US corona cases. The number of recoveries is greater than the rate of deaths. But this ratio is less than many other countries. 246,746 deaths happen till November 2020. The total number of COVID-19 victims is 11,249,228, according to the world health organization (WHO). You can also get the daily statistics of Coronavirus from their official website. You can also get information about how many COVID deaths in US occurs till that date. Statistics of covid in Europe: Europe is a region of tourist attraction. Many people visit these countries for the purpose of the tour. They spend their vacations there. That is why Europe is one of the regions that have more victims of COVID-19. The number of deaths is almost equal to the rate of how many COVID deaths in US. The number of victims is still increasing in Europe. The main reason for the spread of COVID there is tourism. Many people, during traveling toward these countries, cause the spread of Coronavirus. According to the world health organization WHO Coronavirus spreads through humans to humans. 279 827 deaths happen till November 2020, and they are still increasing day by day. Almost 11 328 473 cases are under observation there. These figures are almost near to the statistics of the United States. These statistics can be stopped from increasing further if we show some responsibility. Every individual step is essential to stop this virus from spreading more. Statistics of Coronavirus in South-East Asia: China is the country from where it all starts. There are many theories according to the start of this virus. But the reality is that it is spreading very quickly and causing deaths in many countries. Asia is one of the regions that have more victims of the COVID-19. If we search for how many COVID deaths in Asia, it is almost near how many COVID deaths in US. This is a very alarming situation. We need to take it seriously. China, where it starts, is now one of the most successful countries in defeating the Coronavirus. We have to follow the precautions, just like them. So, we can win this battle against Coronavirus by fighting together. We have to play our roles in stopping its spread. The total cases of Coronavirus till November 2020 are 3,689,832. These figures are increasing every minute. We have to stop it from increasing. It can be stopped when we follow the precautionary measures and try to stick to them. Statistics of COVID in Africa: Africa is normally a warm region. The number of new cases is increasing a little slower than in other regions. That is a positive aspect of it. But now, when the temperature is decreasing, the number of corona cases is increasing. Now they have to take it seriously and follow the precautionary measure to stop it from spreading. The only thing that can control its spread is social distancing and boosting your immunity. The number of corona cases in Africa is 1,423,575. This rate is increasing very quickly. So, they have to take some serious steps against the virus. They should announce a lockdown to stop its further transmission. Follow the safety measures until the vaccine of Coronavirus is not available. Conclusion: Coronavirus is causing disease in many countries and regions in the world. In some regions, the number of victims of Coronavirus is less than in the other regions. Coronavirus can spread through human interactions, so it is very necessary to follow safety measures. To find out how many COVID deaths in US happens, you can check the world health organization’s websites. The WHO updates its website every second. So, it provides the correct and confirms the number of patients in the world. You can get the statistical ratio of different regions and countries on the website of WHO. It also provides you with the basic precautionary measures and the latest news about COVID-19. 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0.990204	To help clarify some of the implications and motivations of items in the new salary settlement, our chief negotiator has provided some commentary. Here is the full text of the agreement with annotations in italics. The University of Waterloo and the Faculty Association of the University of Waterloo hereby agree to the following salary settlement: Term of agreement: 1 May 2018 to 30 April 2021 (three years). Scale increase: effective 1 May 2018 2.00% effective 1 May 2019 2.15% effective 1 May 2020 2.15% Effective 1 May 2018, an across the board adjustment of $850 per faculty member shall be applied to base salaries following the scale increase stated above. The vice president academic and provost (VPAP) and the president of the Faculty Association of the University of Waterloo (PFAUW) will together establish a working group that will investigate the existing salary structure (floors and thresholds) and recommend adjustments to the structure to promote equitable influence of the selective increase system on relative career salary progression of lecturers. The current salary structure, Article 13 of our MOA, was introduced some 18 years ago. The previous structure had very high performers ending their careers within perhaps $1000 of an average performer. The aim of the new structure was to get rid of this compression at the top end.There were not many lecturers before 2002 so not an awful lot of thinking went into setting thresholds for lecturers. Once the structure for profs was agreed on, there was historical precedent to set the floor for lecturers at a particular fraction, and a decision was made to use the same fraction to set lecturer thresholds. But we have two components to our salary, a multiplicative one (the scale increase) and an additive one (the merit) (see the salary structure explanation on our website). Since only scale affects thresholds, the current system has lecturers reaching the thresholds much earlier in their career than professors. This inequity has been identified but a final solution has yet to be crafted. The previous Memorandum of Settlement generated a similar working group around salary anomalies and it worked very well. The working group will start their work by 1 March 2018, report to VPAP and PFAUW by 1 November 2018, with the recommended changes implemented retroactive to 1 May 2018. It is wise to fully investigate solutions to this inequity, but equity is not delayed: all changes will be retroactive to 1 May 2018. The University shall increase its annual contributions to the employee health and dental care benefits plan for the benefit of Faculty by $400,000 (all-in costs inclusive of taxes and fees, corresponding to a notional additional ~$325 per non-retired faculty member, with a focus on broad participation). Article 10.2 of the Memorandum of Agreement says “The Memorandum of Settlement may also include an amount for proposed changes in benefits defined in University Policies and/or administered by the Pension and Benefits Committee. If the proposed benefit changes are not approved, the negotiated amount shall be awarded as a scale change.” This is the first time we have exercised that clause. It should be pointed out that our pre-retirement benefits have been poorly ranked in the 2005 and 2012 benchmarking exercises (see p.11 of this P&B meeting package). The ~$325 is something like a 15% increase, given that the University’s average cost for employee health and dental plans per eligible employee or retired employee in the fiscal year 2016-17 was $2,147. Although the additional contribution will be made 1 May 2018, the deadline date for implementation of the benefit change is 1 January 2019 to correspond with the beginning of the benefit year, and to allow the time necessary for the Pension and Benefits Committee to implement in accordance with its existing principles. Unlike faculty at some other institutions, we do not negotiate the benefits themselves. These are decided by a committee of the Board with broad representation. See this resolution of the Board of Governors to learn more about this committee. The VPAP and PFAUW will together review the unspent funds in the Faculty Professional Expense Reimbursement (FPER) allocation annually during this settlement period beginning May 2018 (corresponding to the end of the first full period of the three year benefit carry forward model implemented in 2015). At the end of the fiscal years 2013 to 2015, there was roughly $250,000 unspent FPER. Fun fact: about 90% of people eligible to use FPER use it. Starting in fiscal year 2016, we are all allowed to carry our unspent FPER forward. So this coming May will see the first balance of the FY2016 FPER pool. This balance will now be monitored. They will develop a process, consistent with the size of the unspent pool, to direct the deployment of these funds to support faculty service, scholarship, research, and teaching. Should this balance be significant, we believed this money should be reallocated to support faculty members’ work. There is also a chance this balance could be insignificant (there could be more uptake now that there is a longer period to use FPER). Hence the language has been crafted to provide flexibility. The option to exchange one week of vacation allowance for a one-time 2% increase in salary when within three years of retirement is extended to 30 April 2027 for retirement on or before 1 May 2030 (see Memorandum of Agreement, Article 11.4) Extending the deadline for allowing the exchange is a routine matter. It has been pushed five times now since the initial creation of the MoA article. As per Article 10.4 of the Memorandum of Agreement, this Memorandum of Settlement becomes part of the Memorandum of Agreement, and is binding on the Board of Governors, the Association, and individual Members. Share this: Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Email Related Tagged benefits lecturers merit salary negotiations Published Feb 2, 2018 Nov 23, 2018 Post navigation Previous Post Everybody’s Talking About Academic Freedom Next Post News From Your Board: February 1 Meeting Recap 3 thoughts on “Breaking Down Our New Salary Settlement” ddvd says: Feb 12, 2018 at 4:11 pm Yay team! The first use of MofA 10.2 is a great precedent. The fact that this is the first use doesn't mean it's the first attempt to do so, so I say breakthrough. LikeLike Reply Pingback: Dental Benefits Increase Starting January 1 – The FAUW Blog Pingback: 11 things we talked about at the November 8 Board meeting – The FAUW Blog Leave a Reply Cancel reply Enter your comment here... Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Email (Address never made public) Name Website You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. ( Log Out / Change ) You are commenting using your Google account. 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0.809354	St. Paul, Governor Tim Walz today unveiled a road map for the remainder of Minnesota's COVID-19 vaccination program. It is anticipated the state will have largely completed vaccinating people in the highest priority 1A phase of the program by the end of next month. That is when state health officials anticipate receiving enough doses of the vaccine to offer it to about 70-percent of Minnesotans 65 years and older. Walz says that is when people fitting into the next phase will begin entering the vaccination pipeline. The plan announced at a news conference this afternoon would begin the next phase with people dealing with certain specific high-risk health conditions. That list includes people with sickle cell disease, Down Syndrome, active cancer treatment, people considered immunocompromised from organ transplant, and those oxygen-dependent due to chronic lung and heart conditions. It would also include targeted essential workers in the food processing industry. Later in April or early May, people between the ages of 45 and 64 with one or more high-risk medical conditions and the younger people with two or more of those high-risk medical conditions would be eligible to receive the vaccine. It is also anticipated that additional essential frontline workers, including law enforcement and emergency responders, would also become eligible for the vaccine around that time, along with people 50 years and older living in multigenerational housing. Minnesota Department of Health The late spring eligibility list covers people 18 and older with any underlying medical condition and anyone 50 and older, with or without health conditions. The final priority listing would be all other essential workers, who are expected to become eligible for the vaccine in June. Everyone else would begin receiving the vaccine in the early summer. Governor Walz says the timeline is based on conservative estimates of vaccine supplies, suggesting that the schedule could be sped up if the vaccine makers continue to ramp up production and additional vaccines are approved.
0.981474	Retired physics professor Wu Yuren has become an online sensation on Chinese social media with her quirky science videos. Affectionately called “science grandma” online, the 72-year-old’s short-form videos about physics have attracted more than one million followers and over 50 million views. The professor began making short-form videos on China’s video-sharing platform Douyin three years ago, hoping to bring physics to the masses in a casual, inspiring and fun manner. Related story: ‘Science grandma’: retired professor’s quirky physics videos a hit on social media https://sc.mp/639e Support us: https://subscribe.scmp.com Follow us on: Website: https://www.scmp.com Facebook: https://facebook.com/scmp Twitter: https://twitter.com/scmpnews Instagram: https://instagram.com/scmpnews Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/south-china-morning-post/ #scmp #China #Chinascience Related Articles Amazon cloud outage hits major websites Reuters, 08 Dec 2021 A major outage disrupted Amazon's cloud services, temporarily knocking out streaming platforms Netflix and Disney+, trading app Robinhood and a wide range of apps. Future of Iran nuclear deal uncertain as talks yield little progress CBS, 08 Dec 2021 The State Department says it has yet to confirm a date for return to discussions over the Iran nuclear deal. 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0.975048	After more than three days of deliberation, a jury in Kenosha County in southeast Wisconsin ruled Kyle Rittenhouse not guilty of reckless homicide on Friday. Rittenhouse was arrested on murder charges in August 2020 after he fatally shot two men and injured a third during violent demonstrations over the shooting of Jacob Blake, an African American, by a white police officer. The trial focused on a straightforward self-defense argument in which jurors were asked to decide whether Rittenhouse believed his life was threatened when he shot the men. 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PBS NewsHour live episode, Dec. 7, 2021 PBS, 08 Dec 2021 Stream your PBS favorites with the PBS app: https://to.pbs.org/2Jb8twG More than a HUNDRED Magellan penguin nests CRUSHED in Argentina RT, 08 Dec 2021 Construction works for an unauthorised road have caused the mass destruction of some 146 penguin nests containing nearly 300 eggs on Argentina's Punta Tombo peninsula, prompting... Before The Mets, Steve Cohen Was The Hedge-Fund King (full documentary) Frontline, 08 Dec 2021 Inside the government’s crackdown on insider trading, drawing on exclusively-obtained video of hedge fund titan Steven A. Beyond the Bell 12/07/21 Bloomberg, 08 Dec 2021 Comprehensive cross-platform coverage of the U.S. market close UK's Foreign Office in chaos with boss on holiday as Taliban took over Afghanistan ITV, 08 Dec 2021 The Afghanistan evacuation effort at the Foreign Office was one of 'dysfunction and chaos' a whistleblower has said. Press Preview: Wednesday's front pages Sky, 08 Dec 2021 Anna Botting takes a first look at Wednesday's papers, with The Observer's chief leader writer Sonia Sodha, and the Daily Telegraph's chief political correspondent Christopher H... What role does vaccine inequality play in the spread of Omicron? DW, 08 Dec 2021 Just as many African countries appeared to have gained control over the pandemic, omicron appeared in southern Africa — and has now raised concerns of a fourth wave. Whistleblower says UK’s “chaotic” Afghan withdrawal led to murder of some left behind BBC, 08 Dec 2021 The British government has been defending its withdrawal from Afghanistan as the Taliban seized power, after a UK government whistleblower said the operation was “chaotic” and “... PM 'fingers all over' decision to evacuate pets from Kabul, says MP Guardian, 08 Dec 2021 The head of the Foreign Office has been accused of covering up the prime minister’s involvement in the decision to evacuate pets from Kabul at a select committee hearing. A picture of ‘artillery from far left-wing activists’ during Zemmour rally isn't what it seems FRANCE24, 08 Dec 2021 Far-right wing presidential candidate, Eric Zemmour, launched his campaign bid during an event on Sunday. Joe Biden warns Vladimir Putin of 'nuclear' sanctions on Russia in a video call Telegraph, 08 Dec 2021 Joe Biden warned Vladimir Putin that the US and Europe were prepared to impose "nuclear" economic sanctions against Russia should it invade Ukraine in a high-stakes video call o... 🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina: Is a split inevitable? \| The Stream Al Jazeera, 08 Dec 2021 Bosnia-Herzegovina’s future is in question as the Serb leader within the country’s tripartite presidency pushes to withdraw the Republika Srpska entity from the country’s army a... Top Republican quitting Congress to run Trump's media company CNN, 08 Dec 2021 Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), who was in line to chair the powerful House Ways and Means committee if the GOP takes back the House in 2022, announced that he is leaving Congress in D... Global Report Global Report shows you all the new news from the major channels globally in one consolidated and diverse page. Now you can be exposed to the information from multiple points of view, and not only to one side of each story.
0.999204	TUESDAY, Oct. 20, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- About 30 million U.S. adults live with osteoarthritis and the pain and stiffness it causes, a new survey finds. And nearly one-third of these people said their symptoms are not well-managed, according to the Arthritis Foundation survey of almost 2,000 adults. In osteoarthritis, the cartilage cushioning the joints gradually wears down, leading to swelling, and limiting a person's abilities to do the activities they want and need to do every day. "Pain is debilitating. My back and hip pain are so bad that I have trouble getting out of bed," wrote one survey respondent. "Each step is excruciating, and I wonder how much longer I can deal with the pain." The results of the recently released survey are clear, according to a news release from the foundation. Patients want to see more treatment and care options to reduce the impact of arthritis pain on their daily lives. Respondents said that pain was difficult to manage with few options, including anti-inflammatory medications (NSAIDs), diet, exercise, opioids, braces and canes. Some reported using meditation and prayer. Surgery was considered a last resort. About 65% said they use NSAIDs or topical medications to manage their pain, about 29% rely on therapies like physical therapy or massage, and another 29% said total joint replacement helped. Research shows that staying physically active can improve arthritis pain, according to the foundation. More than one-third said COVID-19 concerns had caused them to cancel or skip health care appointments. Some also reported that pain levels had increased because of COVID-19 restrictions impacting their ability to access treatment and activity. The primary change patients want to see is for health insurance to increase coverage of new arthritis treatments, though more than half said they were only interested in a treatment for pain if it didn't also increase their joint damage, according to the foundation. "You spend a lot of time & effort trying not to think about it because what you focus on magnifies," wrote one survey respondent. "You hate pain scales because how do you rate something that is always there? Oftentimes it's not the pain's intensity but rather the duration." About 82% want to invest in research to explore new ways to treat or cure osteoarthritis, the survey found. About 65% want to advocate for better access to treatments and 61% want to support the development of new products to help with daily tasks. More information Individuals with osteoarthritis can share experiences by taking the Live Yes! INSIGHTS assessment and learn more at the Arthritis Foundation.
0.939627	Jakarta – IOM announces the launch of the 5th Annual Global Migration Film Festival in Indonesia, with film screenings starting on December 10 and closing on December 18 to commemorate International Migrants Day. See full schedule. National Consultation Ensuring a Transparent and Accountable Abolishment of Recruitment Fee for Indonesia Migrant Workers On 6-7 October 2020, IOM Indonesia in coordination with the Indonesian Migrant Workers Protection Agency (BP2MI) held a “National Consultation on Ensuring the Transparent and Accountable Abolishment of Recruitment Fees for Indonesian Migrant Workers” to develop a monitoring scheme for the implementation of agency’s new regulation. Largest Rohingya Group to Arrive in Indonesia Since 2015 Receives Support in North Aceh Lhokseumawe – After more than seven months stranded at sea under increasingly dire conditions, the largest group of Rohingya refugees to arrive in Indonesia since the Andaman Sea crisis in 2015, are receiving support from local authorities supported by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), UNHCR and partners. IOM Indonesia Assists 99 Disembarked Rohingya in Aceh North Aceh – The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has joined coordinated efforts to provide wide ranging supports to the 99 Rohingya rescued by local fisherman and eventually brought to shore at Seunedon beach in North Aceh, Indonesia yesterday (25-06). Some reports indicate that the group – 49 women, 33 children and 17 men – who had spent months stranded at sea disembarked after the community’s agreement to accept the arrivals due to their concern for the welfare of the children aboard. IOM Indonesia donates PPE and Hygiene Kits to the Ministry of Social Affairs to Reduce Risks of COVID-19 in Shelters The International Organization for Migration (IOM) handed over personal protective equipment (PPE) to the Ministry of Social Affairs (MOSA) on Thursday, 4 June. The PPE will be distributed to returning Indonesian migrant workers as part of COVID-19 precautionary protocols. UNDP, WHO and IOM provide ventilators to support Indonesia’s COVID-19 Response The first shipment of ventilators procured by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) arrived in Jakarta today. This shipment is part of the joint effort by the three UN organizations to provide assistance to the Government of Indonesia in its response to COVID-19. IOM Indonesia COVID-19 Preparedness & Response Plan IOM Indonesia's COVID-19 Strategic Response & Recovery Plan addresses humanitarian and development priorities to ensure that displaced and vulnerable mobile populations are not left at risk to the impacts of the pandemic. IOM Ramps Up Response to Covid-19 Pandemic  for Refugees in Indonesia Jakarta – As governments around the world scramble to procure scarce ventilators critical in the treatment of severe COVID-19 cases, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) is joining efforts to meet the request of the Government of Indonesia for ventilators and other essential medical supplies.  The ventilators will be part of at least 30 procured jointly with the UNDP and WHO  and will be handed over to the National Task Force in Jakarta. Indonesia, IOM Launch Mentoring Programme to Boost Prosecution, Conviction of Human Traffickers Jakarta – The Training Centre of Indonesia’s Attorney General’s Office (BADIKLAT) and IOM Indonesia, with support from Australia’s Department of Home Affairs, have launched an e-learning mentoring programme for prosecutors to improve their effectiveness in investigating and securing convictions against human traffickers. Hasanuddin University, IOM Agree to Cooperate on Public Health, Mobility in Indonesia Makassar – Hasanuddin University in Makassar and IOM Indonesia have signed a memorandum of agreement to strengthen cooperation on public health and mobility. “This agreement commits our faculty and IOM Indonesia to work together more closely toward our common goal - the pursuit of better health for people on the move, regardless of their race or nationality,” said Hasanuddin University Dean of the Faculty of Public Health Dr. Aminuddin Syam.
0.932364	TLD Parent Check Good. a.nic.de, the parent server I interrogated, has information for your TLD. This is a good thing as there are some other domain extensions like "co.us" for example that are missing a direct check. Your nameservers are listed Good. The parent server a.nic.de has your nameservers listed. This is a must if you want to be found as anyone that does not know your DNS servers will first ask the parent nameservers. DNS Parent sent Glue Good. The parent nameserver sent GLUE, meaning he sent your nameservers as well as the IPs of your nameservers. Glue records are A records that are associated with NS records to provide "bootstrapping" information to the nameserver.(see RFC 1912 section 2.3) Nameservers A records Good. Every nameserver listed has A records. This is a must if you want to be found. NS NS records from your nameservers NS records got from your nameservers listed at the parent NS are: ns3.hosttech.de ['94.130.74.45'] [TTL=10800] ns1.hosttech.de ['82.220.34.231'] [TTL=10800] ns2.hosttech.de ['5.79.97.178'] [TTL=10800] Recursive Queries Good. Your nameservers (the ones reported by the parent server) do not report that they allow recursive queries for anyone. Same Glue The A records (the GLUE) got from the parent zone check are the same as the ones got from your nameservers. You have to make sure your parent server has the same NS records for your zone as you do according to the RFC. This tests only nameservers that are common at the parent and at your nameservers. If there are any missing or stealth nameservers you should see them below! Glue for NS records OK. When I asked your nameservers for your NS records they also returned the A records for the NS records. This is a good thing as it will spare an extra A lookup needed to find those A records. Mismatched NS records OK. The NS records at all your nameservers are identical. DNS servers responded Good. All nameservers listed at the parent server responded. Name of nameservers are valid OK. All of the NS records that your nameservers report seem valid. Multiple Nameservers Good. You have multiple nameservers. According to RFC2182 section 5 you must have at least 3 nameservers, and no more than 7. Having 2 nameservers is also ok by me. Nameservers are lame OK. All the nameservers listed at the parent servers answer authoritatively for your domain. Missing nameservers reported by parent OK. All NS records are the same at the parent and at your nameservers. Missing nameservers reported by your nameservers OK. All nameservers returned by the parent server a.nic.de are the same as the ones reported by your nameservers. Domain CNAMEs OK. RFC1912 2.4 and RFC2181 10.3 state that there should be no CNAMEs if an NS (or any other) record is present. NSs CNAME check OK. RFC1912 2.4 and RFC2181 10.3 state that there should be no CNAMEs if an NS (or any other) record is present. Different subnets OK. Looks like you have nameservers on different subnets! IPs of nameservers are public Ok. Looks like the IP addresses of your nameservers are public. This is a good thing because it will prevent DNS delays and other problems like DNS servers allow TCP connection OK. Seems all your DNS servers allow TCP connections. This is a good thing and useful even if UDP connections are used by default. Different autonomous systems OK. It seems you are safe from a single point of failure. You must be careful about this and try to have nameservers on different locations as it can prevent a lot of problems if one nameserver goes down. Stealth NS records sent Ok. No stealth ns records are sent SOA SOA record The SOA record is: Primary nameserver: ns1.hosttech.de Hostmaster E-mail address: dns.hosttech.eu Serial #: 2021081701 Refresh: 7200 Retry: 120 Expire: 2419200 4 weeks Default TTL: 10800 NSs have same SOA serial OK. All your nameservers agree that your SOA serial number is 2021081701. SOA MNAME entry OK. ns1.hosttech.de That server is listed at the parent servers. SOA Serial Your SOA serial number is: 2021081701. This appears to be in the recommended format of YYYYMMDDnn. SOA REFRESH OK. Your SOA REFRESH interval is: 7200. That is OK SOA RETRY Your SOA RETRY value is: 120. Looks ok SOA EXPIRE Your SOA EXPIRE number is: 2419200.Looks ok SOA MINIMUM TTL Your SOA MINIMUM TTL is: 10800. This value was used to serve as a default TTL for records without a given TTL value and now is used for negative caching (indicates how long a resolver may cache the negative answer). RFC2308 recommends a value of 1-3 hours. Your value of 10800 is OK. MX MX Records Your MX records that were reported by your nameservers are: 10 mail.hosttech.de 82.220.34.121 [These are all the MX records that I found. If there are some non common MX records at your nameservers you should see them below. ] Different MX records at nameservers Good. Looks like all your nameservers have the same set of MX records. This tests to see if there are any MX records not reported by all your nameservers and also MX records that have the same hostname but different IPs MX name validity Good. I did not detect any invalid hostnames for your MX records. MX IPs are public OK. All of your MX records appear to use public IPs. MX CNAME Check OK. No problems here. MX A request returns CNAME OK. No CNAMEs returned for A records lookups. MX is not IP OK. All of your MX records are host names. Number of MX records OK. Looks like you only have one MX record at your nameservers. You should be careful about what you are doing since you have a single point of failure that can lead to mail being lost if the server is down for a long time. Mismatched MX A OK. I did not detect differing IPs for your MX records. Duplicate MX A records OK. I have not found duplicate IP(s) for your MX records. This is a good thing.
0.974173	The Recursive Mind challenges the commonly held notion that language is what makes us uniquely human. In this compelling book, Michael Corballis argues that what distinguishes us in the animal kingdom is our capacity for recursion: the ability to embed our thoughts within other thoughts. 'I think, therefore I am' is an example of recursive thought, because the thinker has inserted himself into his thought. Recursion enables us to conceive of our own minds and the minds of others. It also gives us the power of mental 'time travel'--the ability to insert past experiences, or imagined future ones, into present consciousness.Drawing on neuroscience, psychology, animal behavior, anthropology, and archaeology, Corballis demonstrates how these recursive structures led to the emergence of language and of speech, which ultimately enabled us to share our thoughts, plan with others, and reshape our environment to better reflect our creative imaginations. He shows how the recursive mind was critical to survival in the harsh conditions of the Pleistocene epoch, and how it evolved to foster social cohesion. He traces how language itself adapted to recursive thinking, first through manual gestures, then later, with the emergence of Homo sapiens, vocally. Toolmaking and manufacture arose, and the application of recursive principles to these activities in turn led to the complexities of human civilization, the extinction of fellow large-brained hominins like the Neandertals, and our species' supremacy over the physical world. language human mind brain memory years evolution speech people recursive theory suggests chimpanzees words university animals al mental sign events objects species press past thought evolved future homo ago book cognitive system terms communication apes modern vocal tools travel episodic point general ing nature learning evidence story social science size Tag cloud generated by Coginov API Web Research: Feed Concepts to Google Feed Tag Cloud to Google Key Concepts: 1916 Chimpanzee Harshad number Human Language Linguistics Memory Recursion Sign language Time Recommended Books: The Extended Mind: The Emergence Of Language, The Human Mind, And Culture (Toronto Studies In Semiotics And Communication)
0.95947	Technical Sergeant, or Tech Sergeant, is the sixth enlisted rank (E-6) in the United States Air Force, just above Staff Sergeant and below Master Sergeant. A technical sergeant is a non-commissioned officer and abbreviated as TSgt. Official terms of address are "Technical Sergeant" or "Sergeant", although many use "Tech Sergeant". Within the enlisted Air Force, promotion to TSgt has historically been the second most difficult rank to achieve (only the rank of Senior Master Sergeant, capped by Federal law, has lower promotion rates) and is the most difficult promotion most career Air Force members achieve. A Staff Sergeant must have served at least 23 months in grade to be considered for promotion to Technical Sergeant. It takes 10–12 years to normally reach this grade. Technical Sergeants mentor junior enlisted personnel while preparing themselves for promotion to Master Sergeant, the entrance rank of the senior non-commissioned grades. Air Force Junior ROTC The grade of Cadet Technical Sergeant (C/TSgt) is the sixth enlisted grade in the Air Force Junior Reserve Officers Training Corps. It is most often known as "Cadet Tech. Sergeant". At this rank Cadets are usually Flight Sergeants, but may also serve as element leaders instead. Cadet Technical Sergeants are to be referred to as "Technical Sergeant" or "Sergeant" by other cadets.
0.999998	JSONLint is a validator and reformatter for JSON, a lightweight data-interchange format. Copy and paste, directly type, or input a URL in the editor above and let JSONLint tidy and validate your messy JSON code. What Is JSON? JSON (pronounced as Jason), stands for "JavaScript Object Notation," is a human-readable and compact solution to represent a complex data structure and facilitate data interchange between systems. It's a widespread data format with a diverse range of applications enabled by its simplicity and semblance to readable text. As such, it's used by most but not all systems for communicating data. Why Use JSON? There are several reasons why you should consider using JSON, the key reason being that JSON is independent of your system's programming language, despite being derived from JavaScript. Not only is JSON language-independent, but it also represents data that speaks common elements of many programming languages, effectively making it into a universal data representation understood by all systems. Other reasons include: Readability – JSON is human-readable, given proper formatting. Compactness – JSON data format doesn't use a complete markup structure, unlike XML. It's easy to analyze into logical syntactic components, especially in JavaScript. Countless JSON libraries are available for most programming languages. Proper JSON Format Using JSON doesn't require any JavaScript knowledge, though having such would only improve your understanding of JSON. And though the knowledge of JavaScript isn't necessary, following specific rules is: Data is in name/value pairs Data is separated by commas Objects are encapsulated within the opening and closing curly brackets An empty object can be represented by {} Arrays are encapsulated within opening and closing square brackets An empty array can be represented by [] A member is represented by a key-value pair, contained in double quotes Each member should have a unique key within an object structure The value of a member must be contained in double quotes, if it's a string Boolean values are represented using the true or false literals in lower case Number values are represented using double-precision floating-point format and shouldn't have leading zeroes "Offensive" characters in a string need to be escaped using the backslash character \ Null values are represented by the null literal in lower case Dates, and similar object types, aren't adequately supported and should be converted to strings Each member of an object or array value must be followed by a comma, except for the last one The standard extension for the JSON file is '.json' The mime type for JSON files is 'application/json' You can achieve proper JSON formatting by following these simple rules. However, if you're unsure about your code, we suggest using JSONLint Validator. Why Use JSONLint Validator? Programming can be challenging, as it requires enormous attention and excellent knowledge of the programming language, even as simple as JSON. Still, writing codeis tricky, and finding an error in JSON code can be a challenging and time-consuming task. The best way to find and correct errors while simultaneously saving time is to use an online tool such as JSONLint. JSONLint will check the validity of your JSON code, detect and point out line numbers of the code containing errors. It's an excellent way to correct errors without wasting hours finding a missing coma somewhere inside your code. How Does A JSONLint Validator Work? JSONLint is an online editor, validator, and reformat tool for JSON, which allows you to directly type your code, copy and paste it, or input a URL containing your code. It will validate your JSON content according to JS standards, informing you of every human-made error, which happens for a multitude of reasons – one of them being the lack of focus. Using JSONLint, you can quickly find any errors that might've occurred, allowing youto focus more on the rest of your code than on a tiny error itself. Tips & Tricks You can directly input a URL into the editor and JSONLint will scrape it for JSON and parse it. You can provide JSON to lint in the URL if you link to JSONLint with the "json" parameter. Here's an example URL to test. JSONLint can also be used as a JSON compressor if you add ?reformat=compress to the URL. Common Errors Expecting 'STRING' - You probably have an extra comma at the end of your collection. Something like { "a": "b", } Expecting 'STRING', 'NUMBER', 'NULL', 'TRUE', 'FALSE', '{', '[' - You probably have an extra comma at the end of your list. Something like: ["a", "b", ] Enclosing your collection keys in quotes. Proper format for a collection is { "key": "value" } Make sure you follow JSON's syntax properly. For example, always use double quotes, always quotify your keys, and remove all callback functions. Different Results If you use a Windows computer you may end up with different results. This is possibly due to the way Windows handles newlines. Essentially, if you have just newline characters (\n) in your JSON and paste it into JSONLint from a Windows computer, it may validate it as valid erroneously since Windows may need a carriage return (\r) as well to detect newlines properly. As a solution, either use direct URL input, or make sure your content's newlines match the architecture your system expects! Credits Maintained by CircleCell. Thanks to Douglas Crockford of JSON and JS Lint, and Zach Carter, who built a pure JavaScript implementation. You can download the JSONLint source code on GitHub.
0.999007	What is your opinion on the stance that you should end a friendship because of differing political opinions? Is there a time when you believe it is best to drift apart from them or no? Hey dear friend, this is certainly a difficult, relevant question today, as it seems political differences more than ever are not merely a disagreement of opinions, but becoming an aggressively different opinion of human value, with all kinds of dangerous implications. I’m fortunate and blessed to have friends with a wide range of political beliefs who are open to discourse or even changing their minds. Not every person on the opposite side of politics acts like the caricatures you’ve seen online. There are many, many thoughtful people across the spectrum that do not fall easily into our biased categories. My concern is not that everyone has to agree a particular way. My major concern is that our beliefs have sound reasons behind them. When I hear the stories of enlisted soldiers, military veterans, the mentally ill, the desperately poor, victims of racism, both pro-life and pro-choice advocates, immigrants (like my parents), and abuse survivors, I can begin to see why their experiences have shaped their positions on specific issues. The more stories I hear, the more I can understand. I can become a student instead of a critic. I can more easily reach across the aisle, not necessarily to change minds, but to build bridges where our stories are respected in the overlap. Of course, this bridge-building cannot happen with everyone. Sometimes a person’s politics are so explosive and divisive that it seems they only want to watch the world burn (or as it’s said, it’s a zero-sum game). There really are people who cannot be engaged with, no matter how gracious we approach. But unlike the terrible circus we see online, on Twitter or Facebook or Tumblr, most people are way more three-dimensional than that. It’s only ever a last, last, last resort that I would ever break off a friendship because of politics. In the end, speaking from a Christian and spiritual perspective, I have to ask: Are politics even real? Because really: what are they? Politics, if we’re to squeeze history into a drop, are mostly a manmade, brain-constructed, temporary process by which we attempt to cooperate on a large scale. And no one has the total answer on how to do this. In fact, the trouble is that each “camp” thinks they have the total answer, which is why we’re so quick to grade each other and break ties. Just think of how crazy it is that we would allow politics to destroy a friendship rather than allow the friendship to guide our politics. If you cut off a friend because of their political beliefs, this dehumanizes a person by trying to remake them in your own image, which is no better than religious imperialism. In other words, when we use someone’s political beliefs as a measure of their human worth, we become a “political fanatic.” And if you think, “We need to air lift the other party onto an island prison!” (a thing I actually read online) — that’s trying to fight fire with fire, and no one has ever been transformed by mercenary tactics. We need each other, even (and especially) if we disagree, because the entire diversity of human opinion is required to land on unity. I don’t mean there are no bad ideas (there are a lot of bad ideas, on all sides of politics). What I mean is, if we instantly dismiss someone from an opposing political party and treat them like a dogmatic cartoon, then we’re just putting each other’s eyes out. But if we treat each other worthy of hearing, there is a very small chance that someone might possibly change their position on a major issue. Otherwise, there’s no chance at all. And even then, the point isn’t to coerce, but to connect. I don’t mean to sound pretentiously abstract or idealistic about the political system, as we need to pay attention to its influence and also criticize the damage it has caused. We do need to push back against bad ideas. But I think disconnecting completely from a friendship because of several disagreeable opinions is a fatally serious decision. It shouldn’t be done flippantly. Even so, I think drawing boundaries is better than cutting off a friend altogether. I choose to stay in conversation, to hear stories, or we’ll never have the grace and staying power for humility and changed minds. The quicker we leave, the less chance we have for weaving something better than all that politics has failed to deliver. — J.S. Photo from Images Catalog, CC BY PDM This post made Editors’ Picks on the frontpage of WordPress on March 10th, 2017. Share this! Facebook Twitter Tumblr Reddit Print Email More Pinterest Like this: Like Loading... Related Published by JS Park J.S. Park is a hospital chaplain, sixth degree black belt, suicide survivor, ex-atheist, Korean-American, and loves Jesus. J.S. has a B.A. in Psychology from USF and a Master's from SEBTS. He is currently a chaplain at both a hospital and a nonprofit homeless charity. He lives with his wife and dog in sunny Florida. View all posts by JS Park Posted on March 6, 2017 March 20, 2017 by JS ParkPosted in Christianity, Church, Culture, Current Events, Faith, Life, Literature, Ministry, News, Philosophy, Psychology, Relationships, Religion, TheologyTagged Clinton, Democrat, election, politics, Republican, Trump. Post navigation Previous Previous post: Note to Self: How to Apologize Next Next post: Birthday. 86 thoughts on “When Do Politics Decide Friendship?” Jason says: March 8, 2017 at 12:52 pm “The quicker we leave, the less chance we have for weaving something better than all that politics has failed to deliver.” Absolutely. Perfection can’t come by convincing every person to be more like any one of us (because we aren’t perfect!) As much as the worst of politics can be so repulsive that it makes it nearly impossible to hang in there, that same depravity makes it important to have our own perspective challenged. When something is only accepted because we no longer allow an alternative we’re guaranteed to be accepting something less than ideal. LikeLiked by 5 people Reply JS Park says: March 11, 2017 at 11:39 am Well said, Jason. You’re right that our own perspectives do need to be challenged. I may not be able to engage with others when it becomes hostile, but certainly I can engage with my own views and question myself. LikeLiked by 2 people Reply Kelly says: March 9, 2017 at 8:03 am I love this post. As a person who desires to engage in productive discussion about issues facing our nation it is really disturbing that people have become so incapable of conversing about their viewpoint! There is (on both sides of the aisle) an even greater trend now towards soapbox, holier-than-thou rhetoric, rather than thoughtful and reflective debate. It’s like the insanity of the social-media mode of behaving and relating has jumped off the screen and invaded our reality – breaking down our ability to even speak cordially to our friends, family, and neighbors. The model that Christ gives is is key to believers’ interactions with others in the midst of all of this nonsense. Above all, put on love – while still confronting the destructive ideologies (from the left and the right, the religious and the non) that seek to harm and destroy…even in the names of God or of civil justice. While I pray for those governing and for our nation, I pray with even more urgency for the Church to be salt and light and love, to be peacemakers, to extend grace where there is potential for broken relationships, and to be bearers of hope where there are broken spirits. Only His Spirit can make us able. Blessings to you! Thank you again for this excellent post. LikeLiked by 6 people Reply Maverick says: March 10, 2017 at 12:09 pm Nice title 🙂 LikeLiked by 3 people Reply Untraveled Routes says: March 10, 2017 at 12:15 pm Thought provoking!! LikeLiked by 3 people Reply tayahmay says: March 10, 2017 at 12:19 pm Reblogged this on tayahmay and commented: Powerful LikeLiked by 2 people Reply M.L. Millard says: March 10, 2017 at 12:25 pm I have always respected my Republican friends. But there is no excuse for defending Trump. If my friends want to support him because he is the president and they believe it is Biblical to do so, great. But if they look down on others for protesting or try to convince me that he wasn’t making fun of people with special needs or that his treatment of women is “just locker room talk,” GOOD BYE. I left my church. I am thinking about starting my own. How can I look these friends in the eye any more? I tried to reason with them, and I am NEVER going to have influence with them if I was not able to by now. I am 43, and I have always known how to keep friends. This year is not politics as usual. LikeLiked by 4 people Reply Crave_Life says: March 10, 2017 at 1:41 pm I tend to agree with you. This isn’t a difference of opinion on policy. It doesn’t even come close. This is basic human existence and how we treat other humans. This administration has shown over and over again, that they don’t care about humans, they care about money. LikeLiked by 5 people Reply JS Park says: March 11, 2017 at 11:38 am Yes, there are certain lines to draw that aren’t okay to cross. Godspeed on your journey for new community. LikeLiked by 1 person Reply Allison L. Venezio says: March 10, 2017 at 12:29 pm Amen, Amen, AMEN!!!! I love this! Politics should never been an end all-be all of any good, healthy friendship/relationship. It is differences that make us great, but to tear someone apart for their differences is not human, and well not great. Tearing someone apart for disagreeing with you, and then making assumptions about their character, is what makes progress halt, and sets us back as a society. I admit that I made the promise that I was not going to expel anyone from my Facebook friend list, but I was forced to when someone was finding me anywhere else they could (commenting on anything friends posted, and turned everything into an argument). This person had never seemed like the type, but the hate she was throwing around EVERYWHERE was just awful! I knew she was incapable of change, and I kept biding my time with other people. It turned out that waiting on others was a good idea, because my Facebook feed is now back to things I love and am happy to see. I was additionally unfriended by two other people for reminding them kindly that not everyone who voted for Trump is a gloater. They didn’t like that, and I’m glad they unfriended me. I don’t need that, no one needs that kind of negativity!!! LikeLiked by 2 people Reply jasonpfitzer says: March 10, 2017 at 12:55 pm Reblogged this on Average Fadre and commented: Wonderful thoughts. Too many people take too hard a stance. LikeLiked by 2 people Reply Allison L. Venezio says: March 10, 2017 at 2:19 pm I had a former acquaintence that told me I hated poor people because of who I voted for. Um, I work at a non-profit social services agency. She’s a teaching assistant at a major university. She’ll probably be a professor someday. I hate poor people? Iam poor! Whatever happened to liking people for what you – I don’t know – have in common?! And what about lightening up? Yeah, I got rid of her – anyone that takes anything too seriously, and refuses to enjoy friendship based on common bonds doesn’t need to be in my life. LikeLiked by 3 people Reply Rhonda says: March 10, 2017 at 1:26 pm Excellent post. Gives me some food for thought! LikeLiked by 2 people Reply SickChristine says: March 10, 2017 at 1:47 pm I could not agree more. You so eloquently expressed a much needed sentiment. Thank you. LikeLiked by 2 people Reply Pingback: Site Title Wayne Boyd says: March 10, 2017 at 1:57 pm This article is relevant to today’s world, and to me personally. My wife and I voted for different presidential candidates. It’s been difficult, not with arguments, just with non-comprehension of the other view! Thank you for sharing. LikeLiked by 1 person Reply konlee says: March 10, 2017 at 2:05 pm Very nice LikeLiked by 1 person Reply The Enchanted Outlook says: March 10, 2017 at 2:35 pm Beautifully written; thank you for sharing. With this issue, I have been trying to use the word human rights rather than politics. The way I gauge this is to ask the question, “Does this person’s beliefs intentionally undermine the human rights of me or my loved ones?” That’s my final straw. I have been cordial with post people past that point, provided they are not aggressive about pushing their beliefs onto me, but I really don’t think you can be friends with someone and disrespect their basic rights simultaneously. LikeLiked by 3 people Reply JS Park says: March 11, 2017 at 11:36 am A very insightful question to ask ourselves. Don’t mind if I borrow it. 🙂 LikeLiked by 1 person Reply The Enchanted Outlook says: March 11, 2017 at 6:06 pm Borrow away. 😉 LikeLike Reply abbeycoseattle says: March 10, 2017 at 3:05 pm A wonderful post, and extremely relevant at this time. I have thought a lot about this, cried about this, and had a difficult time deciding where to draw the line since this last election. I believe in not judging others, and truly if you support the free country we live in then technically you shouldn’t be offended at others exercising free speech with differing opinions from yours. However, I do think it is appropriate to remove friendships at a certain point, since this election has brought out the very ugly side of some people. If you are outwardly racist, or do not believe in the basic value of all humans are created equal, then we are not friends. LikeLiked by 3 people Reply JS Park says: March 11, 2017 at 11:21 am Yes. There’s eventually a threshold where I will say here and no further. LikeLiked by 1 person Reply Nicole Roder says: March 10, 2017 at 3:18 pm I agree for the most part. I would never end a friendship solely because someone disagreed with me on a political issue. And I do think that many people on opposite sides of an issue have a lot in common, and if they could just get past the arguing and the anger and listen to each other for a minute, they might actually come up with a solution that they’re both happy with, even if nobody changes their minds. But I think the last year or so has demonstrated that there are some people who I’ll just never be able to get along with. You mentioned that some people are so enmeshed in their views, and so angry about them, that you can’t talk to them. I agree with that, but I’m not just talking about those people. (Anyway, I could easily just avoid discussing politics with them but remain friends.) But for some people, the political opinion itself is something I find so offensive, it’s hard to be that person’s friend. For example, I’ve learned in the last year that there are a significant number of people who believe that African Americans are naturally lazier and less intelligent than Whites (according to a poll released in 2016). Or they believe in some insane conspiracy theory that involves a group I belong to, so by extension, they think I must be involved with the conspiracy. Before 2016, I thought that people with those types of beliefs were just archetypes, and most real people were more reasonable than that. But last year’s election showed me that there are actual friends and relatives of mine who think this way. Now, I haven’t actually ended any friendships over politics. But I have to say, it’s made me see a lot of people very differently than I used to. LikeLiked by 2 people Reply JS Park says: March 11, 2017 at 11:20 am Yes, agreed. There are some opinions that are objectively harmful and inherently hostile. Those opinions in themselves deserve as much pushback as possible. I’m still interested in knowing how and why people hold those kinds of opinions, whether to reverse engineer them or to reach from the inside. I’m reminded of how MLK Jr. handled division from the inside of his given institutions (though of course, he ultimately paid a steep price for doing so). However, I’m not certain that everyone is called to navigate such harsh waters. LikeLiked by 2 people Reply Pingback: News For Today – homewithmnj itsmayurremember says: March 10, 2017 at 5:09 pm I was just watching a TED talk on the same issue. We can’t really bridge the divide by fighting one another. However, there is something else as well. It is entirely possible that the other side, ones who we approach or they approach us, may not at the end change their opinion. LikeLiked by 1 person Reply JS Park says: March 11, 2017 at 11:13 am Care to share the TED Talk? I’m interested. LikeLiked by 2 people Reply itsmayurremember says: March 11, 2017 at 11:24 pm Sure: LikeLike Reply itsmayurremember says: March 11, 2017 at 11:25 pm I meant to have only one reply sorry LikeLiked by 1 person Reply heynuhnah says: March 10, 2017 at 11:21 pm This is very interesting and your article can relate to the problem in our country today. Keep it up! 🙂 LikeLiked by 1 person Reply Ajinkya Goyal says: March 11, 2017 at 6:39 am Oh yes, I agree completely, especially with that point about religious imperialism. If we dismiss, demote, demean, etc. others due to their political beliefs, this doesn’t make us much better than groups like ISIS (of course not to such a huge extent; no one would terrorise others due to this – at least I hope not!). I’m going to be writing an article similar to this soon. Please check it out and tell me how you find it! This was a greatly interesting article and you just earned a follower! LikeLiked by 1 person Reply Kim says: March 11, 2017 at 9:34 am Wow.. I love this refreshing, mindful and smart perspective on the whole political climate in our country today. After reading it I still feel energized and good inside. (Unlike the majority of the political posts we read on-line.). I’d like to see more of this. Thank You! LikeLiked by 1 person Reply Kim says: March 11, 2017 at 9:37 am Reblogged this on Time to be Fearless and commented: This article is about a three or four minute read, but well worth a look. It’s a refreshing perspective on today’s political social media climate. It’s nice to read commentary that doesn’t make me feel like I need a shower after reading! LikeLiked by 1 person Reply sharonecathcart says: March 11, 2017 at 10:24 am There is, in my opinion, a rather vast chasm to be overcome when overt racism, misogyny, homophobia, xenophobia, etc., are cast as mere differences of opinion. If someone else finds that those beliefs are excusable for any reason, so be it. I do not. LikeLiked by 1 person Reply JS Park says: March 11, 2017 at 11:12 am Agreed. Fourth paragraph generally covers it. I’ve experienced too many racial pains to overlook it as mere opinion. LikeLiked by 1 person Reply Cecilia Mary Gunther says: March 11, 2017 at 10:44 am Sadly though, we do lose respect for the people who are so buried in their political choices that they believe anyone who does not agree with them is wrong. WRONG and bad. There are no safe areas in that discussion. This type of person is hard to respect. I am an immigrant and have found myself Married and dependant on such a person. That is a bit of a trap don’t you think? c LikeLiked by 1 person Reply SumitOfficial says: March 11, 2017 at 11:36 am Wpw LikeLike Reply Maverick says: March 11, 2017 at 11:57 am Can you please spare some time to look at my blog and if our opinions on politics converge please leave a comment. LikeLike Reply 40oddat20odd says: March 11, 2017 at 12:29 pm While I agree with the post completely.. I have to say that the question wouldn’t arise if all of us understood and more importantly imbibed that we are all a result of our experiences. This however is an idealistic expectation. Politics forms a very critical aspect of our lives,given the impact the presidents decisions have on our Lives..while I don’t agree with Trump’s supporters,I believe in every man’s capability to take a decision as important as this. Each person is responsible for this directly or indirectly and we might as well own up to our roles in the ecosystem.. LikeLike Reply Mrs. Q says: March 11, 2017 at 1:36 pm “If you cut off a friend because of their political beliefs, this dehumanizes a person by trying to remake them in your own image, which is no better than religious imperialism. In other words, when we use someone’s political beliefs as a measure of their human worth, we become a “political fanatic.” A most excellent point. Moral vanity requires us to dehumanize others so we can attempt to attain some kind of insulation or safety from erroneous beliefs. However this moral superiority, especially in current politics, is nothing more than a sort of vain repeatings (Matthew 6) that leads to stopping thought, rather than encouraging respectful debate. No marriage, friendship, or family relationship would last if everyone made the other person view subjects and events in the same way. Just as every believer in faith has an idea of God on a group level, each person has their own relationship with Him that cannot be legislated. Every person is complex and simplifying their politics or faith and then judging them accordingly, always produces hypocrisy. This is so much of what Jesus taught, that we all get it wrong at some point. We all fail to humanize others due to our moral vanity. That is part of our intrinsic humanity, and if politics becomes one’s god, as it did for many deadly regimes, then great trouble is sure to follow. So what do we do when we believe that friend appears to believe something we have deemed as bad or wrong? First, we ask honest questions to help clear confusion. God, after all is not the author of confusion, but we are often confused and misunderstand because our stony hearts get in the way. Acknowledging this fact is helpful. That you nor I will ever know every truth. Instead we can practice discernment. What is this person actually saying? What is their assertion based on? Where did they get this information? How was the information delivered? Did this person analyze both sides of the issue? Are there more than 2 sides? Is it possible that not all aspects of the issue have been fully revealed on purpose to cause chaos and division? Has thought stopping clichés and images been used in the dissemination of “facts” in order to manipulate certain peoples at certain times? The next thing is to pay attention and listen – without prejudice. Meaning we take our conceptions of an issue or event and press the pause button so to speak. We humble ourselves and let the person have their say. I don’t know how many listening related deaths have occurred in the world but I’d say few. So really, even if we hear something that we don’t like or even greatly offends, we humans are strong enough to endure that given moment. We can assess at that moment if the person is reasonable enough (or if we are too) to ask meaningful questions after taking the time to assess their main points. If the person cannot be respectful, regardless of their opinions, then yes, we take space from that moment. If the person is repeatedly disrespectful to us personally, then indeed it is time to consider whether the relationship makes sense. Otherwise we can practice true tolerance (which is indeed a practice for each of us) by remembering no one has all the answers and that a truly human being, is like ourselves, going to have flawed thinking or simply different thinking. Finally I’d like to note that the Bible is an excellent resource for times like these. In the midst of wars and rumors of (cultural) wars, it’s helpful to remember that we can only control so much. One doesn’t have to be a believer to see how the historical accounts and stories in the Bible reflect all times. There is always strife (which as Christians we attempt to avoid), hypocrisy, condemnation, smugness, hate, and evil. There is always also love, forgiveness, redemption, and hope too. Life goes on and on and on. It is an honour for a man to cease from strife: but every fool will be meddling. Proverbs 20:3 Thank you for letting me share my thoughts! LikeLike Reply Pingback: Moral Vanity \| The Blessed In-Between Pingback: When Do Politics Decide Friendship? — J.S. Park – Mtongory Juma realadvice4modernmoms says: March 11, 2017 at 2:59 pm I agree people should try to be more tolerant of each others’ ideas and beliefs. As a centrist I am in the unfortunate unique position to get berated by both the left and the right. I can say despite best efforts it seems that people have become fanatical to the point where some friendships cannot be saved. When a “friend” calls you a fascist, racist, Hitler,Nazi it’s kind of hard to continue to call them a friend. I feel that this country is divided and that people have simply stopped listening to each other. I’m not sure what the answer is but calling people insidious names or being quiet and backing down for fear of being called an insidious name, are equally not good answers to the problem. Thank you for your post. LikeLiked by 2 people Reply Dave Dally says: March 11, 2017 at 4:58 pm Very interesting. Thanks! LikeLike Reply bansalejoanamae says: March 11, 2017 at 7:57 pm Reblogged this on The Keen Observer. LikeLike Reply sbhopper8 says: March 11, 2017 at 8:37 pm Definitely a relevant, timely discussion. I don’t remember the country ever feeling so divided. It’s hard to know how much of that is an actual increase in tensions or a difference in perception stemming from the amplifying effects of social media, the internet in general, and the rapid fire 24/7 news cycle. I have had a few friendships suffer this past year. I’d say related to political differences but not because of them. Instead, I think in discussing some of our political differences, we both realized that the friendship wasn’t rooted in as solid a foundation as we thought. LikeLiked by 1 person Reply joyfulimpatience says: March 11, 2017 at 10:46 pm Well done LikeLike Reply trendsandrelations says: March 12, 2017 at 12:09 am This is so true and something people forget too quickly LikeLike Reply wheresjwo says: March 12, 2017 at 3:41 am Your post is very timely. I am glad to know there are others in the same boat. I have a wonderful friend who I have a very different political stance from and we were able to have a calm conversation about politics and move on. I know she is a good person and has a good heart despite her support of the opposition. LikeLike Reply parul03 says: March 12, 2017 at 8:10 am Thoughtful as it can be . 🙂 I just started writing blogs , I wish someday I write as well as you do 😀 LikeLike Reply tcdreambox says: March 12, 2017 at 12:52 pm This is a good topic and a recurring not only because of the divisive US elections but also because of human behavior on social media. I think it boils down to sensitivity. Social media makes it easy for people to share their thoughts. That is a great thing because it makes exchange of ideas free and fast. However when thoughts are shared online unfiltered, a simple exercise of freedom of expression, whether innocent or malicious, may come out as offensive to any person with an opposing view. It’s always good to engage in a calm discussion but when conversations happen online via social media platforms, you lose the benefit of a face to face conversation, and may run the risk of starting a word war by merely leaving a comment. When the other person is not a stranger, but your mom, a colleague or an old friend, that could be a problem. Should politics decide friendship or relationships? Definitely not. But does it? Probably. LikeLike Reply Pingback: When Do Politics Decide Friendship? — J.S. Park – prof.samblog.com Pingback: When Do Politics Decide Friendship? — J.S. Park – prof.samblog.net lifeunderstrawberryskies says: March 12, 2017 at 6:18 pm This is fantastic. Thank you!!! I can’t even describe the issues I’ve seen develop in relationships in the last year due to politics. The relationships should come first and then the ability to discuss politics. LikeLike Reply Doug (FindingPoliticalSanity.com) says: March 13, 2017 at 3:04 am We should try and understand that this level of divisiveness is not uncommon in our own history. The first example was our own War for Independence. Few realize that the polls of the day (which were obviously not as scientific as today.. ) were in the 50% range. Meaning 50 % of the country was NOT in favor of splitting with England… and you know darn well that issue was very.. and literally… divisive. Fast forward to the Civil War. That was the conflict where brother-fought-brother.. to the death, over politics. Forward to Vietnam.. polls of the day (much more scientific than in 1776) showed a 50/50 split in public opinion regarding the war. In that war one 50% was louder than the other 50% and we ultimately got out. Now.. here’s the thing in all cases… the divisiveness passed, and in the end people just plain got tired of fighting and being divisive and cooler heads prevailed to end those conflicts. It’s almost cyclical in nature that every few decades everyone gets politically fired up over some issue that tests individual political feelings. What makes our current national state of affairs so divisively opinionated different from the other historical events has been one man striking a tone for about 40% of the population who made him president. Contributing to the divisiveness was an outdated electoral system that by some numerical quirk allowed that minority vote to happen… 60% the folks being so diametrically opposed to him across a gamut of social, moral, and experiential deficiencies, and those 40% who voted him in being so disenfranchised with government so much that they preferred a president with those character flaws just to upset the ruling class traditions. All this over a single man. BUT.. this too shall pass, and that’s my whole point here. The thing that has brought us through each and every event like this has been the Constitution. Believe in that… as therein rests the key toward getting back to more.. quieter times. In the meantime.. I suggest the 60% majority try understanding why those 40% are so pissed at the world. In the end we are all Americans. LikeLike Reply dreamsofhope9 says: March 13, 2017 at 9:09 am Friendships based on politics are not true ones all people hold onto their ideals and rhetorics but as they say in Rome do as the Romans do so what can one do use logic and commpassion LikeLike Reply lbess says: March 13, 2017 at 3:50 pm Nice post LikeLike Reply Pingback: When do Politics decide Friendship? \| #StPsy thoughtsonline9 says: March 13, 2017 at 8:31 pm There is no one on earth who would choose my friend no matter what they were or who they were. How sad life would be living in North Korea. LikeLike Reply Vanya Jain says: March 14, 2017 at 5:37 am Thoughtful🖒 LikeLike Reply Laura says: March 14, 2017 at 12:02 pm Fabulous post. I love your message of unity. I get so tired of seeing the fighting between factions and friends, and sometimes have a hard time staying out of it myself. But I just really want to see a bridge being built between people so we can begin to tame the craziness that’s going on in America right now. Your comments are spot on! We need to see each other as humans again, not political positions. Maybe if more people call for unity we’ll eventually have more of it. LikeLike Reply mysocialbeliefs says: March 14, 2017 at 2:02 pm Absolutely ! Everyone cannot have same perspectives. The boot of perception lead different persons to different paths. It is natural that while discussing such matters, there is always going to be a clash of opinions. And that is exactly the way it should be. The best people are those who listen to other people and really think about the point they are trying to make. And if the person is not capable to think about , some issues might stir in. So do keep your point but also don’t forget to think over other points as there is always a chance to improve your knowledge. LikeLike Reply Thomas Edmund says: March 14, 2017 at 5:47 pm It is a sad thing when we decide to put our political views before friendship. While I see where people are coming from they see that their strong values are getting violated and cannot comprehend maintaining a friendship with such a conflict, but I think we need to tweak the lens narrower a little and realize that politics won’t share your company on a quiet evening, be there in hard and good times and really you’re more likely to influence people towards your point of view if you remain friends with them right? LikeLiked by 1 person Reply Thomas Edmund says: March 14, 2017 at 5:50 pm Reblogged this on Lonely Power Poles. LikeLike Reply dillonmurphyblog says: March 16, 2017 at 12:21 am I personally think friends can avoid letting politics get in the way of their friendship. My best friend of all time has a complete opposite view of politics but I love him for who he is. Anytime politics come up, if its important to us we will argue, if its not we will let it go, but in the end we if anything grow from each others insight. LikeLike Reply flarefrigid says: March 16, 2017 at 8:34 pm Well said 👍👍 LikeLike Reply jinruigakufordummies says: March 17, 2017 at 1:44 am Political organization and in turn political identification is indeed a social construct, yet it is superficially an active force by which many of our lives affect and are affected by this culture of politics. To what extent does politics play a role in the formation of individual and collective identity? Thought provoking, certainly a good topic for me to also discuss on my Anthropology blog thanks! LikeLike Reply Pingback: God Bless America – Site Title Jonathan Caswell says: March 17, 2017 at 10:47 pm SIGH…That’s one reason I branched out with my own blogs! LikeLike Reply mvidyashree says: March 18, 2017 at 6:17 am Very interesting, Thoughtfull article LikeLike Reply loveurownlife says: March 19, 2017 at 10:06 am MINDBLOWING! U write Superb…. LikeLike Reply jskline991 says: March 20, 2017 at 7:48 pm The most rewarding friendships and relationships seem to be those that take the most effort. LikeLike Reply SB says: March 25, 2017 at 2:14 pm A great shame people leaves politics and media decide how they should think and act. Men who had been friends for long having their relationships destroyed by some petty dispute over a political leader,issue or moral. Perhaps their friendships weren’t that strong to begin with but if it were the case, such a great shame because no politicians or issues will stay by your side when you’ll be on your deathbed, a lifelong friend however may be the last sight you have before you are leave this world. LikeLike Reply Kyanna Kitt says: March 31, 2017 at 11:42 am This is an interesting conversation. The unfortunate truth is while many people have the mental propensity to converse and befriend people who have different political beliefs, many do not. Partisanship is becoming extreme. If someone even suspects you’re conservative or a leftist you’re ripped to shreds (even if you are an extremist). I personally don’t align with any particular party because I believe in this country. Not a damn donkey or an elephant or a color. This junk has gone way too far but it has reminded me that people care more about their team than this nation. LikeLike Reply Doug (FindingPoliticalSanity.com) says: March 31, 2017 at 11:57 am Nicely stated, Kyanna. LikeLiked by 1 person Reply realnrawreilly says: April 1, 2017 at 3:27 pm This is a great post and different political views are definitely having an effect on friendships especially on social media. I recently had a “Facebook friend” unfriend me because I was staying positive things about Trump when I was a former Bernie supporter. A lot of my liberal friends find it difficult to hear anything other then what they believe or agree on. We like to think we live in an “open minded” world but we are as close minded as ever! Thanks for sharing this 👍 LikeLike Reply realnrawreilly says: April 1, 2017 at 3:32 pm Saying* LikeLike Reply johnnyboy46 says: April 1, 2017 at 9:38 pm Wow!! J. Park man that is a excellent statement when do politics decide friendship, thats is what I want to know as well. What is you perspective on this. LikeLike Reply Jackie Garland says: April 5, 2017 at 12:26 am Reblogged this on Jackie Garland. LikeLike Reply espizarro83 says: April 9, 2017 at 11:34 pm I agree with most of this post. I think the part where people may involve “politics” into their friendships is when that “politics” stands for things that are not acceptable, like bigotry, denial of the truth about climate change, racism, and other similar stuff. LikeLike Reply 43bluedoors says: April 10, 2017 at 5:25 am Well stated. I love having friends with a wide array of political views. It makes for great conversation. The ones I walk away from are those who attack others instead of ideas. It is not their political stance that makes me walk away, but rather their lack of respect for other human beings. I enjoyed your blog. Thanks! LikeLike Reply Pingback: Could You Be Cool With Her If She Voted For Trump? – The Progressive Pugilist with D.V.H. Esquire Anonymous says: April 16, 2017 at 7:18 pm I think a friendship of mutual respect and appreciation for one another’s different views is one of the most valuable friendships to have! LikeLike Reply Pingback: How Real is Reality – Politics and Friendship Edition \| Unknown Ideal Pingback: What it means to be a friend? \| Site Title Pingback: Are You Secretly a Liberal Who Hates Conservatives? – J.S. Park: Hospital Chaplain, Skeptical Christian
0.999882	Warts are small benign growths of the skin, usually harmless, caused by the HPV virus, which can appear in people of any age and in any part of the body, such as the face, foot, groin, genital region or hands. Warts can appear in groups or singly and can easily spread from one area of the body to another. Warts usually go away without specific treatment, but the use of wart remedies can be helpful in speeding up this process. Types of Warts The 5 types of existing warts, classified according to their location and morphology, are: plantar wart: They are warts that affect the feet and are popularly known as “fisheye”. They are similar to a callus, as they are usually yellowish and have small black dots inside; Filiform wart: They are thin and elongated warts, which appear mainly on the face or neck of elderly individuals; Common or common wart: They are warts that are usually less than 1 cm in diameter, are firm, and usually have a rough, rounded, or irregular surface. Its coloration can be skin color, gray, yellowish, brown or black; Flat wart: These are small, flat-looking warts that appear in groups. They are soft and more frequent on the face; Genital wart: They are warts that appear in the female or male intimate region and can increase the risk of developing cancer. They are usually soft and pink in color. It is important that warts are evaluated by the dermatologist, as this way it is possible to verify if they are related to an infectious disease and be indicated the most appropriate treatment to remove them. How warts are transmitted Warts are transmitted through direct contact with these lesions. Generally, children are the most affected, as they tend to keep picking at the warts. However, it is important to clarify that the viruses present in warts only pass to other individuals if they find a place on the skin to penetrate, such as an ingrown toenail scratch or a wound, for example. How to remove warts There are several types of treatment to remove warts that should be indicated by the dermatologist according to the characteristics of the wart. However, some homemade measures can also help to remove warts and complement the treatment indicated by the doctor. So, some ways to remove the wart are: 1. Use of medicines The dermatologist may recommend the use of some creams or ointments based on acetylsalicylic acid and/or lactic acid that should be applied to the wart and help to eliminate the wart. These remedies can be applied at home, at least twice a day or as directed by the dermatologist, or in the doctor’s office. 2. Cryotherapy Cryotherapy is the most used type of treatment to remove warts and consists of freezing the wart through the application of liquid nitrogen in a spray, which makes the wart fall off within a few days. This treatment should be done at the dermatologist’s office to avoid skin burns due to the very low temperature of liquid nitrogen. 3. Laser surgery Laser surgery is indicated when the person has many warts or when they are spread and it is done under local anesthesia, as the procedure can cause pain and discomfort. Laser surgery is performed by applying a beam of light directly to the wart in order to destroy the wart tissue. It is important that after laser surgery, the person takes some care with the wound that was left after removing the wart, because there may be a risk of infection. This recommendation is also important in cases where the doctor has cut the wart to remove it, and this procedure is called surgical excision. 4. Adhesive tape The duct tape technique is a simple and easy way to remove the wart and is recommended by the American Dermatology Association. To remove the wart with adhesive tape, it is recommended to tape the wart for 6 days and then remove and soak the wart in water for a few minutes. Afterwards, a pumice stone or sandpaper should be applied to the site of the wart to remove excess skin.
0.942327	An act to amend Section 16901 of the Food and Agricultural Code, relating to animals. add Section 8593.8 to the Government Code, relating to emergency services. LEGISLATIVE COUNSEL'S DIGEST AB 2614, as amended, Smith. Transportation of animals. Emergency services: counties: large animals. Existing law establishes the Office of Emergency Services within the office of the Governor. The office is under the supervision of the Director of Emergency Services and is responsible for the state’s emergency and disaster response services for natural, technological, or human-made disasters and emergencies. Existing law prescribes various requirements with regard to accessibility to emergency information and services and, in this regard, imposes certain requirements on counties when updating their emergency plans. This bill would require a county and its office of emergency services, in consultation with relevant county departments, offices, and commissions, including those responsible for food and agriculture, to make available to the public emergency preparedness informational materials for livestock, horses, and other large animals. The bill would require these materials to include, among other things, addresses and contact information for designated shelters and facilities, best practices for stocking emergency animal husbandry supplies, transport of animals, and identification of animals. This bill would require a county, in the next update of its emergency plan, to consider and integrate large animal evacuation, sheltering, and care into its emergency plan by addressing certain minimum specified elements. In developing the update to its emergency plan, the bill would require the county to consult with certain stakeholders. By increasing the duties of local officials, this bill would impose a state-mandated local program. The California Constitution requires the state to reimburse local agencies and school districts for certain costs mandated by the state. Statutory provisions establish procedures for making that reimbursement. This bill would provide that, if the Commission on State Mandates determines that the bill contains costs mandated by the state, reimbursement for those costs shall be made pursuant to the statutory provisions noted above. Existing law regulates the transportation of animals, including making it unlawful for a person to lead, drive, or conduct any animal along the track of a railroad, except as specified, or permit any animal to be placed within the fences of a railroad for grazing or other purposes if the person has the right to prevent it. This bill would make nonsubstantive changes to these provisions. Digest Key Vote: MAJORITY Appropriation: NO Fiscal Committee: NOYES Local Program: NOYES Bill Text The people of the State of California do enact as follows: SECTION 1. Section 8593.8 is added to the Government Code, to read: 8593.8. (a) A county and its office of emergency services, in consultation with all relevant county departments, offices, and commissions, including, but not limited to, those responsible for food and agriculture, shall make available to the public emergency preparedness informational materials for livestock, horses, and other large animals. This information shall include, but not be limited to, all of the following: (1) Addresses and contact information for designated shelters and facilities. (2) Best practices for stocking emergency animal husbandry supplies, transport of animals, loading and unloading of animals, animal training in preparation of an emergency, health and immunization recordkeeping, and identification for animals. (b) A county, upon the next update to its emergency plan, shall consider and integrate large animal evacuation, sheltering, and care into its emergency plan by addressing, at a minimum, all of the following: (1) The role of law enforcement, local transportation agencies, county offices of food and agriculture, and nonprofit organizations in large animal evacuations. (2) Effective and efficient communication, in coordination with telecommunications carriers, the cable and internet broadband industries, radio and television broadcasters, to city and county residents who own livestock, horses, and other large animals. (3) Identification of adequate facilities to temporarily provide services and shelter to livestock, horses, and other large animals. Factors to be considered shall include, but are not limited to, all of the following: (A) The presence of sufficient animal husbandry supplies, such as food, water, and medication. (B) The availability of appropriate veterinary medicine providers, staff, and volunteers. (C) The safety of facilities and the health and safety of staff and volunteers. (4) The promotion of memoranda of understanding between shelter facilities in nearby counties and cities for purposes of mitigating the effects of extended, multiple, and successive emergency incidents. (c) A county and its office of emergency services shall develop the update to its emergency plan described in subdivision (b) in consultation with relevant stakeholders, which shall include, but are not limited to, all of the following: (1) The county department of food and agriculture. (2) The local district agricultural association. (3) The Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. (4) The Department of Transportation. (5) The county sheriff and other local first responders. (6) The California Animal Welfare Association. (7) Nonprofit and other community-based organizations that provide relevant services. SEC. 2. If the Commission on State Mandates determines that this act contains costs mandated by the state, reimbursement to local agencies and school districts for those costs shall be made pursuant to Part 7 (commencing with Section 17500) of Division 4 of Title 2 of the Government Code. SECTION 1.Section 16901 of the Food and Agricultural Code is amended to read: 16901. It is unlawful for a person to do either of the following: (a)Lead, drive, or conduct any animal along the track of a railroad, unless the railroad is built within the limits of a public highway or public place. (b)Permit any animal to be placed within the fences of a railroad for grazing or other purposes if the person has the right to prevent it.
0.993924	Man found guilty of ‘breathtakingly brutal’ murder of Louise Smith, 16, whose body was discovered in woodland – London Press & News Search for: London Press & News London Press & News - A non-profit blog that collects news Toggle navigation Breaking News September 28, 2021 UK scientists try to combine flu and COVID vaccines into one January 30, 2021 A misunderstanding that could end badly January 21, 2021 The warning of a Spanish nurse in London: “We are worse than in the first wave” December 15, 2020 Fears over Christmas bubbles amid rising coronavirus infections as London moves to Tier 3 December 15, 2020 Woman a two-year-old girl found dead in Hounslow December 14, 2020 Netherlands set for five-week coronavirus lockdown with schools, shops and gyms closing until mid January Man found guilty of ‘breathtakingly brutal’ murder of Louise Smith, 16, whose body was discovered in woodland london December 8, 2020 Comments Off on Man found guilty of ‘breathtakingly brutal’ murder of Louise Smith, 16, whose body was discovered in woodland A man who lured teenager Louise Smith to woodland, where he killed her with “breath-taking brutality”, has been found guilty of murder. “Predatory” Shane Mays, 30, walked with the 16-year-old to the secluded spot in Havant Thicket on VE Day, where he repeatedly punched her in the face, causing her fatal injuries. Mays, who is married to her aunt, then defiled her with a stick before burning the body, which was found 13 days later following a major police search. James Newton-Price QC, prosecuting, told the trial at Winchester Crown Court: “A determined attempt had been made to destroy her body, which was so badly burned and damaged by fire as to be unrecognisable. “Her body had been subjected to extreme violence and violation, including repeated and heavy blows to her head.” victim’s aunt – at the end of April, after she had “quarrelled” with her mother. But arguments broke out between the three and Louise complained to her boyfriend, Bradley Kercher, that Mays would “flirt” with her and pin her down, and the jury was shown a Snapchat video of him tickling her feet. Mr Newton-Price said: “Louise was just 16, she was anxious, needy, fragile and vulnerable, vulnerable to the attentions of a predatory man who was apparently flirting with her and living in the same small flat.” Louise Smith: Murder probe into 16-year-old’s death He suggested that Mays had persuaded Louise to walk with him to the woodland by offering her cannabis, with the aim of sexually assaulting her. Mays told the court that he punched Louise “many” times to the face and had heard her bones “crack”, after losing his temper. He said: “I just carried on, I lost control of myself. She made a moaning noise, that’s when I stopped.” The court heard that a clinical review of the defendant found he had an “extremely low” IQ of 63, putting him in the bottom one percentile of people. He told the court that he had not worked for five years and spent nine hours a day playing video games. Following her death, Louise, who was training to be a veterinary nurse, was described by her family as a “smiley, generous person”. The judge, Mrs Justice May, adjourned the case for sentencing on Wednesday. Reacting to the verdict, Det Insp Adam Edwards said: “It’s brilliant to get justice for Louise’s family and friends. They lost her in the most tragic of circumstances. “The defilement of her body was shocking. It’s something all officers at the scene will have to live with for the rest of their lives.” london Podcast Wake Up to Money News and views on business and the world of personal finance. Plus the very latest from the financial markets around the globe Podcast Subscription Menu Visit Website RSS Feed Let's Test Again (Like We Did Last Summer) by BBC Radio 5 live From 4am today, travellers returning to the UK will b e subject to new covid tests. Felicity finds out what the travel industry makes of it. She also hears why the flotation of online news service BuzzFeed has been so controversial. And after Spar was hit by a cyber attack, she looks at how companies can protect themselves from hackers. #WakeUpToMoney With Felicity Hannah Search Episodes Clear Search Let's Test Again (Like We Did Last Summer) December 7, 2021 BBC Radio 5 live After Miscarriage December 6, 2021 BBC Radio 5 live £17bn in fraud failure December 3, 2021 BBC Radio 5 live Energy Shock December 2, 2021 BBC Radio 5 live Fear of the unknown December 1, 2021 BBC Radio 5 live Is the Christmas party over? November 30, 2021 BBC Radio 5 live What does Omicron mean for business? November 29, 2021 BBC Radio 5 live Good Deal or No Deal? November 26, 2021 BBC Radio 5 live Working 9 to 5 … till 50 November 25, 2021 BBC Radio 5 live Are Businesses braced for a covid crackdown? November 24, 2021 BBC Radio 5 live Load More Search Results placeholder Previous Episode Show Episodes List Next Episode Show Podcast Information Search for: Pulp Addict CelebrityAbout Blocosmetics Beaktiv Boutique Glamor Sinonanai Recent Posts UK scientists try to combine flu and COVID vaccines into one September 28, 2021 A misunderstanding that could end badly January 30, 2021 The warning of a Spanish nurse in London: “We are worse than in the first wave” January 21, 2021 Fears over Christmas bubbles amid rising coronavirus infections as London moves to Tier 3 December 15, 2020 Woman a two-year-old girl found dead in Hounslow December 15, 2020 Netherlands set for five-week coronavirus lockdown with schools, shops and gyms closing until mid January December 14, 2020 It will take almost a year to vaccinate entire UK population against Covid, leading scientists warn December 14, 2020 Attorney General William Barr resigning and will leave before Christmas, Donald Trump says December 14, 2020 Christmas shoppers told not to travel to tier 3 London to buy presents December 14, 2020 Man filmed having sex with club girl at train station wants to be porn star December 14, 2020 New Years Eve Barcelona Vip Tables Vip Table Booking London New Years Eve London vip tables London Press & News - 2019-2020 - All rights reserved This website uses cookies to improve your experience. 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0.977491	Spontaneous order is the method by which market systems operate. It is why our grocery shelves are always full and why in command economies like the former USSR, grocery shelves were mostly barren. It is Adam Smith’s invisible hand. Spontaneous order is the miraculous, invisible, spontaneous organization of all the producers, entrepreneurs, economic actors, intermediaries, workers, investors, and market participants who create the market economy that provides our vast surplus of goods and needs. In the economic world, spontaneous order is most efficient with stable value currency and free trade. The current response to the COVID “pandemic” is the opposite of spontaneous order. It is top-down edicts that circumvent and restrict a spontaneous, market-based solution to what increasingly appears to be another coronavirus that our natural immune system is perfectly capable of fighting and controlling. Absent the command and control, from which top-down “pandemic” edicts emanate through supranational organizations, foundations, billionaire oligarchs, big tech monopolies, corporate media, and government officials, would the world, through spontaneous order, arrive at the same solution of shutting down the global economy, creating mass unemployment, locking people in their homes, instituting curfews, closing schools, and mandating useless face masks? No, of course not. Similarly, absent its command and control order, Soviet citizens would not have willingly instituted an economic system that ensured deprivation of goods and services. COVID has a greater than 99% survival rate, according to CDC data. We would go about our normal lives, the same as we did in the 1968 flu pandemic that few knew existed despite its above normal lethality. One of the strange benefits of COVID is that its totalitarian direction is so in your face that it forces one to confront how our world actually works. As long as people are left alone, our lives within our families, friends, communities, and the larger world are mostly satisfied through faith in our God-given inalienable rights as humans. The authoritarian COVID response threatens our natural, inherent freedom. It is a wake-up call for the defense of liberty, making it imperative to understand how our world actually operates. The Wizard is emerging from behind the curtain. The Story of Ronald Bernard The best examination of a global power structure I discovered is the ongoing witness and description by Ronald Bernard. Bernard rose through the Netherland underworld ranks to become a financial fixer for what he describes as the top of the global power pyramid. Bernard worked for the top level but wasn’t a member. Bernard publicly states that he broke with his criminal “old life” after being invited to participate in child sacrifice as entry into the top rank. He now gives testimony based upon a spiritual reawakening that he calls his “second life.” Bernard is an advocate for the awareness and prevention of pervasive human trafficking and child sex abuse. He gave a five-part interview to Irma Schiffers of Dutch DMV TV, which has garnered over 18 million views, about serving the power structure. One can watch and come to their own conclusion of his authenticity. All his videos can be viewed here. In Part 2 of the interview, Bernard describes the global pyramid power structure. According to Bernard, there are eight levels. 1. At the top are 8000-8500 individuals (My note: presumably within this group, there exists its own hierarchy.) 2. The next level is the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) located in Basel, Switzerland. The BIS is the central bank of central banks. Bernard describes the BIS as the “clubhouse of all the banksters.” Its “Headquarters Agreement” states: The BIS enjoys inviolability (art.2) The BIS has complete immunity (art.4) “The BIS owns absolute monetary power. The BIS is placed above all laws worldwide. The BIS won’t be controlled by anyone. The BIS is a free state with its own police force.” The other protected free state principalities are Vatican City, City of London, and Washington D.C. Vatican City is the spiritual arm, City of London, the financial arm, and Washington D.C., the military arm. 3. IMF and World Bank (My Note: Bernard doesn’t state it, but the UN also occupies this level.) 4. Central banks 5. Big banks and stock exchanges 6. Multinational corporations 7. Governments 8. Populace Those at the top of the pyramid give orders to the BIS, and it filters down through the other layers. According to Bernard, this is the way the power structure governs the world. A Look at COVID as Manifested by a Global Power Structure As one observes Bernard’s global power structure, each level’s role in advancing the COVID narrative towards a Great Reset goal becomes transparent. Everything pushing the COVID narrative is interconnected. Rockefeller is a name associated with the top of the pyramid, and the 2010 Rockefeller Foundation document provided the blueprint for our COVID world today. Event 201 that game-planned the immediately forthcoming “pandemic,” directly connects with Gates’s Gavi and the WEF through the many UN affiliations. The BIS and its central banks have funded the initial lockdown economic contraction through monetary creation. In the U.S., this inflationary base money creation flows through the TBTF depository institutions in deposits on their Fed accounts and loans via the Fed’s post-Covid created funding programs. The Fed loan programs barely filter down to the most vulnerable and impacted–the poor, working class, and newly unemployed–and its money creation negatively affects wages and savings through future inflation. The unjustifiable lockdown is wiping out small business owners. There will be no recourse for them other than the loss of their invested work. COVID is a great economic redistribution from the middle class to corporate behemoths. As an example, a politician indefinitely shuts down a small business selling candles and forces it into bankruptcy. Meanwhile, subsidized by tax exemptions, the USPS, and government contracts for AWS, Amazon delivers all the candles you want to your front door amid its soaring stock price. The middle class will take the brunt of the COVID economic impact. The Great Reset aims to eliminate the middle class. It envisions a population who own nothing and exist on the scraps of a universal basic income (UBI), serving the interests of those at the top who own everything, the Globalists. According to WEF’s President Klaus Schwab, “you will be happy.” The third level IMF, World Bank, and the UN, create the connections that extend in spiderweb-like fashion through the lower levels. This multitude of connections directed by the top governs our world. Directly connected to the third level are supranational organizations such as the European Commission, WEF, Bilderberg, Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commission, Davos Group, and many others. Mysteriously, our world closely follows the agenda that results from these unaccountable supranational organizations’ annual conferences. Through the third level flow all the connections with foundations, NGOs, organizations, multinational corporations and banks, monopolistic Big Tech, billionaire oligarchs, Big Pharma, national health organizations CDC, NIH, NIAID, independent institutions like Tavistock, university affiliations, World Council of Churches, mainstream media, government officials, and governments. Green initiatives–the Paris Agreement, carbon tax advocacy, alternative fuels, clean energy, windmills, the sad elevation of Greta Thunberg as a puppet environmental icon, and the movement to restrict economic and personal freedom through energy control–emanate from the UN. Under the green banner, sustainability is the catch-all word for justifying environmental control. Are we to believe that global politicians have independently arrived at COVID policies that devastate their constituents economically and psychologically and that they are implementing them solely through misguided goodwill? Look around the world at what is happening under the governance of Daniel Andrews in Melbourne, Australia, Emmanuel Macron in France, Boris Johnson in Great Britain, Justin Trudeau in Canada, and likely Biden in the U.S.—to the extent that Biden can cognitively comprehend he has a policy—and every other country supporting, or under the debt control, of the IMF and World Bank. Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko states on the record that he was offered a $940 million bribe from the IMF/World Bank to lock down his country in the same manner as Italy. This despite Belarus, with a population of 9.5 million, having “officially reported” only 680 COVID deaths as of September 2020. The common messaging emanating from all power structure levels is evidence of top-down control. Lockdowns, economic destruction, psychological fear, false-positive testing, non-stop MSM COVID reporting, false hospital occupancy, coming mandatory vaccines, health passes, useless face masks, suppressed negative face mask efficacy studies, quarantine of healthy people, the demonization of cheap, effective cures, and official encouragement to report on your neighbor are common global responses. (Nixon 1971: We are all Keynesians now. COVID 2020: We are all Stasi now.) Then along comes the ubiquitous inane slogan, Build Back Better. This is meant to be only a cursory glance at the power structure, a subject that requires a comprehensive investigative book. The global power structure comes into focus with the clarity of the COVID origination and response. Looking deeper into history’s wars, economic crises, financial engineering, and political upheaval, one can observe the same type of power structure behind the scenes orchestrating events. Rapid technological and AI advances are greatly enabling the totalitarian infrastructure necessary for global control. If Klaus Schwab gets his way, we will become transhumanists. Advances in life-like robot sex dolls may be propitious. COVID – The Great Reset II COVID – The Great Reset Share this: Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Related ← Previous post Next post → 4 Comments Katie December 6, 2020 at 8:42 pm This is a truly excellent article. It summarizes perfectly how the power structure operates. What I’d be interested in knowing is just how much insider info the puppet players (like the utterly corrupt Justin Trudeau) have concerning the intentions of the big boys at the top (the 8000). I mean, do these puppet clowns actually believe there is a deadly virus, or are they just play-acting? I know Trudeau is all open about, and on-board with, the Great Reset etc., and Covid provides an opportunity for to advance that agenda, but do you think he knows all these measures are b-s? In which case he and his ilk are not just corrupt, but thoroughly evil. It would also be interesting to learn more about the 8000-8500. Thank you for a really great article! I look forward to reading more! Reply ↓ Michael Kendall (Post author) December 6, 2020 at 10:10 pm Thank you for your comment. It’s hard to categorize the motivation of those serving globalists’ interests–some combination of greed, advancement, maliciousness, blackmail, ignorance, stupidity, or evil. Bernard is quite clear in discussing his former life about how they responded to the criminal destruction they created. They enjoyed it and laughed about the destruction left in their wake. Reply ↓ Katie December 6, 2020 at 10:59 pm Thank you so much for taking the time to respond to my question. Incredible: they laughed at their wanton destruction! Utterly evil. Thank you for the work you are doing to raise awareness about these issues. Reply ↓ Jonathan December 7, 2020 at 5:19 pm Thanks for another excellent article Mike. I’ve been reading Ross Douthat’s ‘The Decadent Society’ and his chapter on soft totalitarianism is resonant with what you are outlining. Rod Dreher’s new book, “Live Not By Lies’ also offers an historical road map of how totalitarianism overtakes societies that once would have thought themselves immune. I would be fascinated to know who is truly at the top of the pyramid. It’s all starting to read like Robert Hugh Benson’s ‘Lord of the World.’
0.919851	It’s the return of the blog! I’ve been thinking about doing this for a couple of months now. #COVID19 wasn’t the impetus, but it definitely had an effect and pushed me forward to type the text below. Our social, labour, government, and economic structures have been thrown upside-down, I’m exhausted from work, and super-caffeinated 18 hours a day, so here we are. COVID19 Ontario Summary File For the past week, I’ve been collecting the summary stats posted by the Government of Ontario at this link and throwing them into a spreadsheet, hosted here. The Gov’t and our public health agencies in Canada are doing a great job in this time of crisis, but this work I’m doing is a required step right now because the provincial numbers are only cumulative snapshots of the provincial casecount, at the date and time that they’re posted. i.e., there is no room for historic analysis in the existing page. If you want to track data into a trendline, you need the file I’ve posted. So, by using the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine, I’ve been harvesting older versions of the page, scraping out the data, and throwing it into the spreadsheet. Until the province has the time to put together a better document on their own, I’ll continue doing this. When this crisis ends, I’ll likely pull an ATI request to get a complete dataset right from the source. In the meantime, this is what we’ve got, provincially. I’ve done a lot of this work by hand and need to automate some of it in the future. There are better methods and functions out there but given the timeliness of the issue, I’m choosing to post now and re-learn skills I used to have later. (See the last bullet below for context.) Links: Gov’t of Ontario’s COVID19 Page Wayback Machine Archive The dataset I’ve created, hosted in Scholars Portal Dataverse RDM Policy in Canada So, the last time i posted about this topic (around the year 1961), RDM policy in Canada was still largely a set of intentions, motherhood statements and ideal states we’d like to get to. We knew what worked and what didn’t by way of looking at what other nations had instituted, but policy-setting and implementation – two very big, distinct, and slow-moving things – were still in their infancy. Now, in spring 2020, we were expecting to see a policy announcement through Tri-Agency, but #COVID19 has got in the way. Word on the street is that a policy, based on the existing draft pillars of institutional strategy, data management planning, and data deposit, will still hit implementation this spring (or this year), but we need to give the Agencies space and time to deal with COVID19 themselves. As a firm believe in social distancing, I’ll give them that. Where have all my coding skills gone? Related to the first bullet above. There was a time I had enough harvesting skills by way of rudimentary tools and apps to easily harvest text from the web. I suppose that time ended about 5 years ago as my position responsibilities shifted, so that’s fine. But I’m really saddened to have lost these skills. I’ve been feeling a bit out of touch on this front for about a year now, to be honest, and this COVID19 harvested has shone a spotlight on the issue. When things are all said and done, I think I’m going to allocate some leave time to re-learn what I used to know. Posted in UncategorizedTagged COVID19, RDM 2016 Waterloo Region CMA Population Density by Census Tract map now live February 15, 2017 February 15, 2017 steeleworthyLeave a comment 2016 Waterloo Region Population Density A Wednesday morning FYI for you: I’ve now posted a map detailing Waterloo Region CMA’s population density in 2016 by census tract. I went back to my old ways and developed the map with QGIS and then exported it into leaflet.js, which basically means that it’s super fast. Tableau’s maps are very easy to develop, but their usability isn’t ideal. Take a gander at the map here… Posted in Uncategorized Kitchener-Waterloo Population Change 2011-2016 at exit278.ca February 13, 2017 February 13, 2017 steeleworthyLeave a comment Minor Update: I’ve plotted out population change for Waterloo Region, 2011 to 2016. It’s available here, at exit278.ca. This is a URL I’ve been toying with since 2015. I’m thinking of hosting all my #census2016 posts there. -m Posted in Uncategorized Ontario Population Change, 2011 to 2016 February 9, 2017 February 9, 2017 steeleworthyLeave a comment Statistics Canada has released its Population and Dwelling Counts from the 2016 Census. This is the first of several releases scheduled for StatCan – it plans to release data products for all modules (e.g., income, labour, ethnocultural diversity) before the end of 2017. Hats off to them! This is a map I quickly rendered in Tableau. I’ve played with Tableau in the past but usually stuck to hacking out code and data myself. After a December meeting and tutorial with Lucia Costanzo at the University of Guelpgh Library, though, I’ve become a bit of a convert. The proprietary nature of the software is sometimes problematic, but it certainly speeds up the development of your maps and visualizations. Perhaps more on that later. This map shows the population change in Ontario’s Census Divisions (CD’s) from 2011 to 2016. The percentage change is based on one census cycle to the next, but the color gradation ends up comparing this percentage change from one region to another. Note well that this can cause issues in interpretation of your numbers. Some interesting things to note or remember: This is considering population change only. It doesn’t take into account the value itself. So, while Kenora, in the northwest, shows the most significant population change, it might still be unfair to draw a comparison against any of the regions in the golden horseshoe or GTA Posted in Maps, OntarioTagged Census 2016 The Shortsighted Closure of 54 Public Library Locations in Newfoundland April 27, 2016 steeleworthy5 Comments Here are some quick thoughts on today’s announcement that the Province of Newfoundland will close 54 public libraries, leaving the system with only 41 locations. It’s a travesty for a province’s educational, literacy, and information access goals, regardless of its fiscal crisis. You can follow the public fallout of this poorly conceived plan by following the #nlpublib hashtag. One thing that really bothered me in this announcement is the consolation that the Newfoundland Library Chair, Calvin Taylor, tried to make. What follows is a statement that tries to focus on the positive in a very bad situation, but what it does is pinpoint how awful and shortsighted this action is. The CBC reports that: [Taylor] said 85 per cent of residents in the province should be within a 30-minute drive of a remaining branch — which will be open a minimum of 30 hours a week — and available to people in a service area where they go for groceries or to do their banking. This argument is incredibly shortsighted. It presumes that all library users have vehicles or are able to drive, or even have access meaningful public transit. But that doesn’t begin to describe the makeup of our contemporary towns, cities, and communities. Even in rural and remote communities, the poor, the young, and the elderly often don’t have access to a car, and these three groups often represent a very, very large percentage of a library’s users. If a library is open for only a paltry 30 hours a week (and likely mostly during afternoon weekday hours) but only a few can make their way to its doors, will anyone care? The CBC article also mentioned that Newfoundland has some of the lowest literacy scores in Canada. I can’t speak to that since literacy is not my field, but certainly closing so many access points to free learning, educational, and cultural resources cannot improve such a rate. If you live in Newfoundland and Labrador, then you should contact your MHA and your local councillors immediately to make a protest because time is of the issue in situations like this. If you live outside of Newfoundland, like I do, then you can still lend a hand by raising a flag and making the situation known. The closure of so many library locations is an unacceptable policy decision and unacceptable cost-cutting measure than can kneecap a generation. Posted in UncategorizedTagged library cuts, newfoundland, public libraries October 2014 Unemployment Rates November 10, 2014 November 10, 2014 steeleworthy2 Comments This week’s map visualizes Canada’s unemployment rates for October 2014, which were announced last week: I coded this map with trepidation since comparing unemployment rates across provinces isn’t always as important as considering one province’s current rate against its own historic numbers. For example, this map shows us that Ontario’s unemployment rate still lags behind Alberta’s. No surprise there. What the map cannot do, though, is show that Ontario’s unemployment rate for this month – 6.5% – has finally recovered since the Sept 2008 crash. The last time Ontario’s unemployment rate was this low was in October 2008. To best visualize the province’s unemployment trend back to pre-recession numbers, one should simply chart the data, or even just give the real numbers in tabular format. The best way to do this on the web is with charts.js, which seems to be some of the easiest coding I’ve ever seen. That will be my project for later this week. This map is created with: Data from StatCan CANSIM Table 282-0087. QGIS, an open source GIS programme OpenStreetMap, an open source, crowdsourced world map Mapping imagery by Mapbox Simplified Canadian vector data from Natural Earth Data Leaflet.js, an open source javascript library that helps you project maps on the web qgis2leaf, a QGIS plugin that automates a lot of the codework Posted in Academic Libraries, Data Librarianship, MapsTagged government data, Labour Force Survey, leaflet, QGIS, Statistics Canada, Unemployment Rates 2011 Population Density, Brantford, Ontario November 2, 2014 steeleworthy1 Comment This week, I’ve taken the same population density variable I used last week and plotted it for Brantford, Ontario. I’ll be speaking about open StatCan data to our journalism students in Brantford in a few days’ time, so it was only fair to plot the same variable for our students in this city, too. (Click here to open the map in its own window.) This map is created with: Data from the 2011 Census of Canada, at the census tract level. QGIS, an open source GIS programme OpenStreetMap, an open source, crowdsourced world map (Think Google Maps but open and free) Leaflet.js, an open source javascript library that helps you project maps on the web qgis2leaf, a QGIS plugin that automates a lot of the codework Posted in Academic Libraries, Brantford, Data Librarianship, MapsTagged Census of Canada, government data, QGIS, Statistics Canada Mapping for the masses: Population Density in Kitchener-Waterloo October 29, 2014 November 1, 2014 steeleworthy1 Comment One of my sidebar projects this fall has been to get back into mapping socio-economic data. This is something I used to do quite a bit four years ago (these maps have sadly succumbed to linkrot and plugin abandonment). Projecting numeric data onto maps is easier than most people think, and ever since I moved to a new city in 2013, I planned to pick up this skill again to learn a few things about my new town. And as a data librarian, I know where to find and work with census data, so it was easy to kickstart things into gear once more. Below is a map showing population density in Waterloo Region’s census tracts at the 2011 census. Click through to get the entire map: The interesting thing about this map isn’t so much its colorful polygons, (based on statistics anyone can download here) but the tools I used to build it. When I was creating maps in 2010, the average person who wanted to hack something out was limited largely to using Arc on his or her campus, or using the open source (and still maturing) variant, QGIS, or working with Google Maps. These days, QGIS is very mature and has a strong developer community, GMaps is still going strong, and users can use services such as Mapbox’s TileMill. The options to choose from are stronger, and there is an option that can meet your background, whatever it may be. As an example, I’m linking over to Mita Williams’s recent work mapping population change in Windsor, Ontario, as well as making the case for electoral change in her hometown. Mita is a UX librarian and far more of a coder than I’ll ever be, so her recent work with maps shows a freer hand at hacking out java to make things go, while I use plugins within QGIS to automate some of the coding for me, which frees up my time to spend on analysis. At the end of the day, our maps are projected with the same code and with data from the same datasets, so our endpoint is the same, but the tools we’ve chosen to use may be better suited to our own particular abilities. That is something I didn’t see in 2010 as much as I see today. And that change is a good thing. Getting these datasets into the hands of the masses, and then making them usable and understandable for everyone, is crucial to the precepts of openness – open access, open government, open data – that we espouse as librarians. One can have completely open access to data, but its value is lessened when it cannot be used or understood by all of society. Yes, open data is a crucial part of today’s citizen-to-citizen and citizen-to-government relationships, but the more tools people have to work with that data, the better. Posted in Data Librarianship, Government Data, Information Society, MapsTagged ArcGIS, Kitchener, Mita Williams, QGIS, Statistics Canada, Waterloo Share the CLA Statement on Cuts to Statistics Canada October 24, 2014 November 2, 2014 steeleworthy16 Comments CLA: Cuts to Statistics Canada are Harming Canadians (October 23, 2014) This week, in the middle of Open Access Week, the Canadian Library Association issued a statement criticizing the government cuts that have been made to Statistics Canada in recent years. This critique is strongly worded and it packs a punch; I expect it to gain traction beyond our regular librarian circles. But getting the word out cannot happen without your help. Read the statement and share it with your colleagues and friends, especially with people outside of your typical library and archives networks. To make the case that StatCan is not just a numbers factory but a social barometer for the nation, we must extend our voice. We must be on point, and we must persuade. I have copied the text of the statement from the original PDF in order to help circulate this statement. When you share, please link to the original document or to www.cla.ca. -Michael Cuts to Statistics Canada are Harming Canadians October 23, 2014 The Canadian Library Association / Association canadienne des bibliothèques (CLA/ACB) is the national voice for Canada’s library communities. Canadians know that access to reliable and high quality information, from the widest variety of points of view, is critical to a prosperous, functioning and democratic society. The decisions that citizens, communities, and governments make are better informed and have the ability to be more innovative when there is a free exchange of ideas facilitated by open and equal access to information. It is with these values in mind that CLA responds to recent and ongoing changes at Statistics Canada. Recent programme cuts and policy changes at Statistics Canada have made it more difficult than ever for Canadians to track changes to critical issues that affect their communities, such as unemployment rates or the education of our children. The replacement of the mandatory long-form census with the National Household Survey, at a significantly greater cost, and the cancellation of many social surveys has made it increasingly challenging, if not impossible, for municipalities, hospitals, schools, and government agencies to administer social programmes and to track their success. In some cases, municipalities are financing their own surveys to gather the critical data they once had access to through StatCan. StatCan cuts and changes are continuing to impede effective planning for all agencies, making future programming a costly gamble. Additionally, with all levels of government focused on social and economic innovation, it is imperative that municipalities have the ability to look back on trends in order to plan for the future with reliable data. Statistics Canada withering on the vine Budget cuts have affected Statistics Canada enormously, which in turn affects all Canadians and all levels of government. While StatCan extended a lifeline to surveys and tools that tracked the nation’s economy through these cuts, it did so at the great expense of its social surveys, where significant budget reductions to the agency and ill-advised policy changes to its census program created major gaps that cannot be filled. Canadians have forever lost valuable research that affects their communities as a result of cancellations of and cuts to surveys such as: The National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth, which followed the development and well-being of Canadian children from birth to early childhood The Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, which provided valuable insight into the financial situation of Canadian families The Workplace and Employment Survey, which examined employer and employee issues affecting the Canadian work place, such as competitiveness, technology, training, and job stability. Canadians and their communities are now suffering the consequences of budget cuts and policy changes at Statistics Canada. Major, long-standing surveys that paint a dynamic picture of Canadian society have been eliminated, making it nearly impossible to do year-over-year comparisons and to track the changes in social data and programs over time. It is hard to imagine less responsible measures in the age of open data, open government, and evidence-based policy-making than limiting the supply of data or replacing it with inferior products. In the context of fiscal responsibility, CLA believes that the government can be much more effective at planning and supporting sound planning. The current government is determined to balance the books and bring Canada into an environment of economic prosperity and growth. In order to plan for these outcomes, careful public spending is dependent on correct information to inform decisions. Statistics Canada has long been the core agency for Canada’s ability to plan and spend carefully at all levels of government, and within the business and not-for-profit sectors. CLA believes that without consistent and reliable data, this ability will be lost. The CLA urges the government to return Statistics Canada to its status as one of the world’s most respected National Statistical agencies by restoring its funding and the long-form census. The CLA urges the government to provide Statistics Canada with the support it needs to collect, analyze, and publish data that has proven, longstanding value for decision-makers, communities, and Canadians alike. The Canadian Library Association/Association canadienne des bibliothèques (CLA/ACB) is the national voice for Canada’s library communities, representing the interests of libraries, library workers, and all those concerned about enhancing the quality of life of Canadians through information and literacy. CLA/ACB represents 1410 library workers, libraries and library supporters; and Canadian libraries serve in excess of 34 million Canadians through the nation’s public, school, academic, government and special libraries. For more information, please visit www.cla.ca Valoree McKay, CAE Executive Director [email protected] 613-232-9625 x 306 Posted in Activism, CLA, Government Information, Information Policy, Information ProfessionTagged Canada, government cuts, Statistics Canada New Article on RDM and Collaboration (and Canada) June 5, 2014 steeleworthy1 Comment Image CC @ Wikipedia This week, my article on research data management and collaboration inside and outside the academic library was published in Partnership. And here’s my shameless plug: you should go read it now. The article examines the different facets of research data management – collection, access, use, and preservation – and it locates them within the different part of the academic library. It is also advocates for real collaboration with our peers and stakeholders across the entire university, such as our colleagues in Research Offices and Research Ethics Boards (IRBs for our American friends). The article also examines the current policy gap regarding RDM in Canada, as well as ongoing efforts by different groups to develop RDM provisions in our granting formulas, and to provide resources and share expertise in order to ensure that we don’t create a paper tiger. What’s needed is not just policy but action, and both must be considered in the same breath. Here’s the article’s abstract: Research data management (RDM) has become a professional imperative for Canada’s academic librarians. Recent policy considerations by our national research funding agencies that address the ability of Canadian universities to effectively manage the massive amounts of research data they now create has helped library and university administrators recognize this gap in the research enterprise and identify RDM as a solution. RDM is not new to libraries, though. Rather, it draws on existing and evolving organizational functions in order to improve data collection, access, use, and preservation. A successful research data management service requires the skills and knowledge found in a library’s research liaisons, collections experts, policy analysts, IT experts, archivists and preservationists. Like the library, research data management is not singular but multi-faceted. It requires collaboration, technology and policy analysis skills, and project management acumen. This paper examines research data management as a vital information, technical, and policy service in academic libraries today. It situates RDM not only as actions and services but also as a suite of responsibilities that require a high level of planning, collaboration, and judgment, thereby binding people to practice. It shows how RDM aligns with the skill sets and competencies of librarianship and illustrates how RDM spans the library’s organizational structure and intersects with campus stakeholders allied in the research enterprise. For what it’s worth, collaboration has been a real buzzword at IASSIST40 and I’ve already been to a few presentations that share similar arguments as mine, and which definitely have the same spirit. I hope we’re all on to something with this, and I hope that we in Canada can get up to speed with our counterparts in other countries. Finally, this paper began in part from an Introduction to RDM session that I co-presented with Jeff Moon of Queen’s University at OLA in January 2014 (details here). Jeff has also written a great article on research data management, and it appears in the same issue of Partnership. He is on the forefront of RDM in Canada and knows how to get things done, so be sure to read his work, too. -ms Posted in Academic Libraries, Data Librarianship, Research Data ManagementTagged Canadian Academic Libraries, CIHR, Data Management Plans, data preservation, NSERC, RDM, SSHRC
0.999951	President Joe Biden delivers remarks Thursday after news of a cease-fire plan between Israel and Hamas militants emerged. Nicholas Kamm \| AFP via Getty Images Speaking at the White House an hour before an Egyptian-brokered cease-fire was set to go into effect in Israel and Gaza, President Joe Biden expressed gratitude for the deal — which, if successful, would put at least a temporary halt to rocket attacks, airstrikes and other violence that has killed more than 200 Palestinians, as well as at least a dozen Israelis. Biden's remarks were fittingly brief: just three minutes. The administration shied away from public pressure or public statements throughout the conflict, instead prioritizing what White House officials constantly referenced as "quiet" diplomacy. The latestIsrael approves unilateral cease-fire in Gaza offensive In fact, Biden's Thursday evening statement was the first time he delivered formal remarks in the 11 days of fighting. Every other time Biden weighed in, it was at the prodding of reporters after he had finished speaking about other topics. Throughout this period of relative silence, the White House emphasized how often Biden and other key figures, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, were on the phone with officials in Israel, Egypt, Jordan and other Middle Eastern states. By Thursday, the total number of calls White House officials were touting to reporters had grown to 80, including a half dozen conversations between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — as well as calls to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and others. A good portion of Biden's remarks Thursday was simply thanking the various officials his administration had worked with to bring about a cease-fire. "These hostilities have resulted in the tragic deaths of so many civilians, including children," Biden said. "I sent my sincere condolences to all the families, Israeli and Palestinian, who have lost loved ones, and my hope for a full recovery for the wounded." The flare-up was the latest in a cycle of conflict between Israel and Hamas, which have fought similar battles like this three times previously. But this escalated faster than the others. EarlierBiden expresses 'support' for cease-fire in Netanyahu call Both sides warned the other that they could resume attacks if the cease-fire is not honored, and it will take some hours to determine whether it is realized. Throughout the conflict, Biden emphasized Israel's right to defend itself against rocket attacks, as he did again Thursday. As the death toll mounted, Biden faced increased pressure from Democratic allies in Congress to ramp up pressure on Israel to scale back its strikes on Gaza, and to speak more about Palestinians, as well. Biden ended his remarks by promising U.S. support for "reconstruction efforts" in Gaza. "We will do this in full partnership with the Palestinian Authority — not Hamas," he said, "in a manner that does not permit Hamas to simply restock its military arsenal." "I believe the Palestinians and Israelis equally deserve to live safely and securely, and to enjoy equal measures of freedom, prosperity and democracy. My administration will continue our quiet, relentless diplomacy toward that end," Biden said. Copyright 2021 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org. Your support matters. You make MPR News possible. Individual donations are behind the clarity in coverage from our reporters across the state, stories that connect us, and conversations that provide perspectives. Help ensure MPR remains a resource that brings Minnesotans together.
0.990581	[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/12/17/art.getty.obama.walking.jpg caption="Obama committed to going to climate summit."] WASHINGTON (CNN) - President Barack Obama will travel to Copenhagen,Denmark, Thursday evening to attend the U.N. Climate Conference as planned,despite growing uncertainty that the talks will lead to an agreement, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said. "The president is going to travel in hopes of making progress for a strong operational agreement" on climate change, Gibbs said. "There are no changes in the president's plans." The statement came amid rumors from Copenhagen that Obama would not come if talks deteriorated and it appeared no agreement could be reached.U.S. officials in Copenhagen and at the White House confirmed talks brokedown Wednesday after the Chinese delegation rejected U.S. demands that China, along with other nations, be required to provide "transparency" - proving a commitment to cutting emissions. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Thursday morning in Copenhagen that "we have presented and discussed numerous approaches to transparency with a number of countries and there are many ways to achieve transparency which would be credible and acceptable. But there has to be a willingness to move towards transparency in whatever form we finally determine is appropriate. So if there is not even a commitment to pursue transparency, that's kind of a deal breaker for us." Gibbs said the Chinese "balked" at the "strong transparency requirement,"though he "hoped that they would reconsider." The Obama administration is trying to lower expectations for the president's visit. The last time he traveled to Copenhagen - in October to try to win the 2012 Olympic bid for Chicago - he came back empty-handed. Regarding this trip, Gibbs said, "coming back with an empty agreement would be far worse than coming back empty-handed." The agreement Obama is hoping for out of Copenhagen would not be a treaty, nor would it be legally binding. Gibbs acknowledged it would be "a political agreement that would lead to a treaty" later. Filed under: Copenhagen • President Obama soundoff (52 Responses) Blue mjm, are you a scientist? If not, you have nothing of importance to say. I'm so tired of the right-wing nuts, who think that they know everything. How much harm could we do if we tried to clean up the air. Let's use our brain and do something for our children. We need cars that use less gas. Now, what in the hell is wrong with that? December 17, 2009 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm \| If you want something ruined, put a republican in charge You wingnuts should not be wishing your life away for the elections of 2012. I painfully waited through two hellish terms of the dumbest president in U.S. History. It seemed like Bush was around a lot longer than 8 years. Can you imagine, to a dog, it was 64 long agonizing years. President Obama will be reelected. December 17, 2009 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm \| « Previous 1 2 3 « Back to main « previous post next post » Follow this Blog: Twitter . From CNN Politics Biden told Putin that 'things we did not do in 2014, we are prepared to do now' if Russia escalates in Ukraine, top adviser says December 8, 2021 04:04 am Pentagon's review of Afghanistan drawdown begins 3 months after withdrawal December 8, 2021 03:15 am House passes new debt ceiling plan after McConnell cuts deal with Democrats December 8, 2021 03:11 am House passes bill authorizing $770 billion in Pentagon funding and setting Defense policy December 8, 2021 03:05 am
0.994812	"Home, Sweet Home" is a drama directed by D.W. Griffith, featuring Robert Harron and cinematographer Billy Bitzer, stars of Silent Hall of Fame. In order to appreciate this film the viewers should know that it consists of four independent stories with their own different plots and casts of actors. The four shorts are apparently united by a common theme. "True Heart Susie" (1919) director D. W. Griffith starring Lillian Gish and Robert Harron "True Heart Susie" is a drama directed by D. W. Griffith. This film illustrates the work of actor Robert Harron and cinematographer Billy Bitzer, stars of Silent Hall of Fame. Susie (Lillian Gish) is a plain schoolgirl secretly in love with her handsome neighbor Bill (Robert Harron). She follows him around and he enjoys her company, but can't find the courage to kiss her. When Susie finds out that Bill wants to go to college, she sacrifices the dearest thing she and her aunt have - their cow - to gather the money for his education. "Broken Blossoms" (1919) director D. W. Griffith, cinematographer Billy Bitzer "Broken Blossoms" is a poignant drama made for mature audiences, directed by D. W. Griffith. This film illustrates the work of cinematographer Billy Bitzer, a star of Silent Hall of Fame. Cheng (Richard Barthelmess) leaves his native China to spread the peaceful teachings of Buddha. In London, working as a store keeper, he is soon crushed by life's realities, from which he escapes temporarily using opium. "The Musketeers Of Pig Alley" (1912) director D. W. Griffith, cinematographer Billy Bitzer "The Musketeers of Pig Alley" is a short crime drama directed by D. W. Griffith. This film illustrates the work of actor Robert Harron and cinematographer Billy Bitzer, stars of Silent Hall of Fame. "The Musketeers of Pig Alley" is the first gangster film in history. It has some excellent acting by a very strong cast and a lot of suspense. The film is also a predecessor of what would become known a quarter of a century later as "the film noir". "Orphans of the Storm" (1921) director D. W. Griffith, cinematographer Billy Bitzer "Orphans of the Storm" is a historical drama directed by D. W. Griffith starring Lillian Gish. This film illustrates the work of cinematographer Billy Bitzer, a star of Silent Hall of Fame. The events in the film occur before and during the French revolution of 1789, which was caused by the extreme societal inequalities, with aristocracy enjoying unlimited privileges and the common people deprived of human rights and often doomed to starvation. "Hearts of the world" (1918) director D. W. Griffith starring Lillian Gish and Robert Harron "Hearts of the world" is a war drama directed by D. W. Griffith. This film illustrates the work of actor Robert Harron and cinematographer Billy Bitzer, stars of Silent Hall of Fame. Two American families share a house in a peaceful French town. The Boy (Robert Harron) of one family and the Girl (Lillian Gish) of the other have a romance. When the war breaks out the Boy joins the army and the Girl puts her wedding dress in a box. Despite heroic resistance from the defenders of the town, they are overcome by the brutal onslaught of the enemy. "A Romance Of Happy Valley" (1919) director D. W. Griffith starring Lillian Gish and Robert Harron "A Romance Of Happy Valley" is a drama directed by D. W. Griffith. This film illustrates the work of actor Robert Harron and cinematographer Billy Bitzer, stars of Silent Hall of Fame. John (Robert Harron) is a country boy working on his father's corn fields. One day John meets a New York man, whose stories about wealth stir his imagination and he decides to leave for the big city in search of luck and fortune. Jennie (Lillian Gish) is left behind to wait for him. "Way Down East" (1920) director D. W. Griffith, cinematographer Billy Bitzer "Way Down East" is a poignant drama directed by D. W. Griffith and starring Lillian Gish. This film illustrates the work of cinematographer Billy Bitzer, a star of Silent Hall of Fame. The film tells the story about a society that ostracizes women for having a child out of wedlock. Anna meets a man, who, in order to get her affections, sets up a fake marriage with her. Then after she becomes pregnant he betrays her. Anna's baby dies and she is banned from the boarding house. His Double Life A charming movie and one of the first soundies with great Lillian Gish See details here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0024122/ I've used http://www.archive.org/details/his_double_life as a source and did the following: - trimmed it of 1/2 hour of the dead air in the end thus making the original 3Gb file smaller - compressed it using DivX codec thus making it even more small - normalized the sound (which originally was too low for some reason) - created and added Russian subtitles a
0.999759	This is the name, which is an identifier. It is like a URI, but cannot be a URL, as it tells you nothing about the location or how to contact Mark. In this case it also happens to identify at least several other people in the USA alone. Johnson Space Center Home, 1601 NASA Parkway, Houston, TX 77058-3145 This is a locator, which is an identifier for that physical location. It is like both a URL and URI (since all URLs are URIs), and also identifies me indirectly as "resident of..". That would uniquely identify Marks location, if he was alone in that place. There is a lot of employees at JSC. Although habitat on Mars could be URI an URL. I say "like" because these examples do not follow the required syntax. 2.2.2. URI¶ URI - Uniform Resource Identifier A Uniform Resource Identifier (URI) is a unique sequence of characters that identifies a logical or physical resource used by web technologies. URIs may be used to identify anything, including real-world objects, such as people and places, concepts, or information resources such as web pages and books. Some URIs provide a means of locating and retrieving information resources on a network (either on the Internet or on another private network, such as a computer filesystem or an Intranet), these are Uniform Resource Locators (URLs). Other URIs provide only a unique name, without a means of locating or retrieving the resource or information about it, these are Uniform Resource Names (URNs). The web technologies that use URIs are not limited to web browsers. URIs are used to identify anything described using the Resource Description Framework (RDF), for example, concepts that are part of an ontology defined using the Web Ontology Language (OWL), and people who are described using the Friend of a Friend vocabulary would each have an individual URI. 3 Example: https://example.com/path/resource.txt#fragment //example.com/path/resource.txt /path/resource.txt path/resource.txt ../resource.txt ./resource.txt resource.txt #fragment 2.2.3. URN¶ URN - Uniform Resource Name A Uniform Resource Name (URN) is a Uniform Resource Identifier (URI) that uses the urn scheme. URNs are globally unique persistent identifiers assigned within defined namespaces so they will be available for a long period of time, even after the resource which they identify ceases to exist or becomes unavailable. URNs cannot be used to directly locate an item and need not be resolvable, as they are simply templates that another parser may use to find an item. 2 Examples: urn:isbn:9788395718625 - Python3: from None to Machine Learning book, identified by its book number. urn:ISSN:0167-6423 - The scientific journal Science of Computer Programming, identified by its serial number. urn:uuid:6e8bc430-9c3a-11d9-9669-0800200c9a66 - A version 1 UUID. It says what is it, but not where to get it. 2.2.4. URL¶ URL - Uniform Resource Locator A Uniform Resource Locator (URL), colloquially termed a web address, is a reference to a web resource that specifies its location on a computer network and a mechanism for retrieving it. A URL is a specific type of Uniform Resource Identifier (URI), although many people use the two terms interchangeably. URLs occur most commonly to reference web pages (http), but are also used for file transfer (ftp), email (mailto), database access (JDBC), and many other applications. Most web browsers display the URL of a web page above the page in an address bar. A typical URL could have the form http://www.example.com/index.html, which indicates a protocol (http), a hostname (www.example.com), and a file name (index.html). 1 Example: https://[email protected]:123/forum/questions/?tag=networking&order=newest#top ldap://[2001:db8::7]/c=GB?objectClass?one mailto:[email protected] news:comp.infosystems.www.servers.unix tel:+1-816-555-1212 telnet://192.0.2.16:80/ urn:oasis:names:specification:docbook:dtd:xml:4.1.2 2.2.5. References¶ 1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/URL 2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniform_Resource_Name 3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniform_Resource_Identifier 4(1,2) Pate, Roger. What is the difference between a URI, a URL and a URN? Year: 2019. Retrieved: 2019-05-22. URL: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/176264/what-is-the-difference-between-a-uri-a-url-and-a-urn Next Previous © Copyright 2021, CC-BY-SA-4.0, Matt Harasymczuk <[email protected]>, last update: 2021-12-07 Revision 634d0f3a.
0.984278	Is a quiche a quiche if there are no eggs and cream involved? Is pastry dough pastry dough if zero butter was used in the making of it? Maybe I should call this recipe a vegan vegetable tart, instead of a quiche, just to be safe from all the people complaining about vegn calling dishes the same as their not vegn counterparts, just because it’s easier to convey what kind of dish it is. Mini vegan veggie tart In any case, this vegan tart can be adapted to whichever (seasonal) vegetables you want to use. The base can be used for sweet as well as savory tarts. Fruit pies, frangipane tart, veggie tarts! The uses are pretty much endless. I tried this crust a couple of times, to make sure the first time wasn’t just a fluke. And it wasn’t. The next step will be finding a gluten-free flour mix with which the recipe works well. Ingredients For the crust: 275 grams all purpose flour 1/2 tsp salt 120 grams refined coconut oil (solid) 6-8 tablespoons (90-120 ml) cold water For the vegetables: 250 grams mushrooms, cleaned 1 onion (±125 grams) onion, peeled and finely chopped 300 grams frozen spinach, thawed and liquid squeezed out olive oil salt & pepper to taste For the “custard”: 400 grams silken tofu 240 ml water 140 grams chickpea flour 2 tablespoons nutritional yeast 1/2 teaspoon turmeric 2 teaspoons dried oregano 1 teaspoon ground coriander 1 teaspoon salt 1/4 – 1/2 teaspoon cayenne pepper (to taste) Instructions For the crust: In the bowl of a food processor or stand mixer with paddle attachment, mix the flour and salt. Add the coconut oil in small(ish)1 pieces, and mix or process until only very small pieces of oil are left and it looks like a crumble. With the machine still running, add the cold water, one tablespoon at a time, until a cohesive dough forms. Not all water might be needed. Remove dough from processor / mixer, give it a quick knead to bring it all together, and start rolling out. For individual / mini quiches, cut the dough in pieces2 before rolling each individually about 3 mm thick. Line each tart mold, carefully pushing the dough into the crimps. Set aside in the fridge3 before filling and baking. For the vegetables: Preheat oven to 180°C. Chop the onion. Cut the mushrooms in quarters. Mix both and spread in a (lined, for easier cleaning) baking tray. Spray some olive oil, season with salt and pepper. Bake mushrooms for 20 minutes, until golden brown. Remove from the oven and let cool. Meanwhile, thaw the spinach. Squeeze as much liquid as possible and chop finely. If using fresh spinach, chop & saute in a bit of oil until wilted and the liquid has evaporated. Allow spinach to cool. Then mix with the mushrooms. Note: this tart can be made with any vegetables you want. Calculate 700-750 grams of vegetables in total. For the custard: In a blender, mix tofu and water together. In a bowl, mix chickpea flour & spices with a whisk. Add the mixed tofu to the chickpea flour and mix to combine. Let it rest about 10 minutes before proceeding. Assembly and baking: Preheat oven to 175°C. Take the lined tins out of the fridge, divide veggies between the tins, then pour custard to fill the crust4. Place the tins on a baking tray. Bake 20-25 minutes until set and golden. Remove from tins and serve. Servings 8-10 servings Notes about a tablespoon worth ↩ With this recipe I had enough for 9 10 cm tarts, or 1 24 cm + 1 15 cm ↩ The crust can easily be made the day before baking. Just keep it in the fridge until filling & baking time ↩ If making one big quiche, mix veggies with custard, then pour into crust ↩ Tagged baking, lactose free, vegan Blueberry galette By Sade \| April 17, 2017 - 12:26 \| April 17, 2017 Cooking, Vegan Leave a comment It seems like I am in a blueberry kick. I do love me some blueberries, and since frozen ones are so easy to keep, it’s easy to reach for them for a quick dessert. We invited the family over for Easter Sunday lunch. We served a selection of cheeses, fruit & breads. Spread of cheeses, fruit and breads And for dessert I wanted something easy and quick, that wasn’t fiddly and could be baked while or right after lunch to have a bit later as dessert. I also wanted something relatively light (not loaded with butter and eggs) and with lots of fruit. A galette came to the rescue! Blueberry galette While a traditional galette pastry is made with butter, this olive oil version turned out to be perfect as well. It stood up to the juicy berries, and provided a nice crunchy edge. Thanks to the tiny amount of sprinkled sugar, it also turned a nice shade of golden. Note that I didn’t pinch that one fold quite enough, and it folded back open during baking, letting the juices escape. Ingredients For the dough: 200 gr flour 1 tsp salt 30 gr sugar 50 ml olive oil 75-100 ml water For the berry filling: 450 gr (frozen) blueberries 30-40 gr sugar 2 tbsp (30 ml) lemon juice 2 tsp (10 ml) vanilla essence 30-40 gr fine corn flour 1 tsp sugar (for sprinkling) Instructions Combine all ingredients for the dough in a bowl, starting with only 75 ml water. Mix it, adding more water if needed, and for a bowl with it. Let rest for an hour or while the berries thaw. Mix the all the ingredients for the filling in a bowl and let sit for an hour, or while the berries thaw. Preheat oven to 180°C. Roll out the dough into a (approximate) circle shape, about 25 cm in diameter, on a piece of parchment paper. You don’t want the dough to be too thin, it needs to stand up to being folded over the filling. Spoon the berries on to the middle of the dough circle, leaving 4-5cm free all around. Reserve the liquid! Fold the edges of the pastry over the filling, pinching the folds so they stick together. Pour the reserved liquid on top of the berries. Sprinkle 1 tsp sugar over the pastry edges. Transfer the galette (and parchment) to a rimed1 baking tray, and bake at 180°C for 30-35 minutes, until the berries are all jammy and the pastry is crunchy and golden. Let cool on a cooling rack for 15-30 minutes. Serve lukewarm, with ice cream if desired. Servings 8 wedges. Trust me on this one, and use a rimed tray, chances are the filling will escape, and flow on to the bottom of the oven and burn to a sticky bubbly and sharp caramel there. Avoid that! ↩
0.999548	Metrolinx works to fix issues on Lakeshore West, Kitchener lines that caused delays during morning commute Metrolinx is working to fix issues on two of its GO train lines that caused significant delays for customers in Hamilton and Kitchener on Friday. Early this morning, police responded to an arson east of West Harbour GO along the Lakeshore West line in Hamilton. Metrolinx said the fire destroyed read more QEW closed at Dixie Road due to concerns about downed power lines Published Wednesday, September 29, 2021 5:25PM EDT Last Updated Wednesday, September 29, 2021 6:30PM EDT The Queen Elizabeth Way has been closed in both directions between Dixie and Cawthra roads after a tractor trailer took down some high voltage power lines. It happened on a Mississauga roadway adjacent to the read more Uprooted trees and downed power lines reported in Etobicoke after series of severe thunderstorms Extensive damage has been reported after a cluster of severe thunderstorms brought heavy winds and torrential rain to parts of the city’s west end on Saturday evening. Environment Canada issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the City of Toronto just after 6 p.m., warning of nickel-sized hail and winds that read more Asylum seekers on front lines of COVID-19 to have chance at permanent residency Stephanie Levitz and Jillian Kestler-D’Amours, The Canadian Press Published Friday, August 14, 2020 4:30PM EDT MONTREAL – Asylum seekers working on the front lines of the COVID-19 crisis are getting an early chance at permanent residency in Canada, but some advocates say the government’s plan will leave thousands of workers read more Power mostly restored after severe thunderstorm uprooted trees, downed power lines Power has been mostly restored to thousands of residents who were left in the dark after a series of powerful thunderstorms swept through the city on Wednesday afternoon. The storms dumped about 65 millimetres of rain on some areas of the city within about half an hour and also brought read more Longer lines, higher fares and no booze: Flying is about to get more aggravating Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press Published Sunday, June 14, 2020 1:40PM EDT Temperature checks. Bigger lines. Fewer meals. No alcohol. And ultimately, higher prices. Air travel — often a headache before the COVID-19 pandemic — is set to become even more uncomfortable, experts say, as increased in-flight personal space is read more Toronto will have to close subway lines, fire hundreds of cops and shutter libraries without help from Ottawa, Queen’s Park: Tory Mayor John Tory laid out in the starkest terms so far what it would mean if the higher levels of government don’t come to the table with significant help for Toronto and Canada’s other financially devastated cities. In a news conference Friday, the mayor laid out a bleak picture of read more N.S. sets up help lines for citizens struggling amid mass shooting, pandemic Michael Tutton , The Canadian Press Published Tuesday, April 28, 2020 12:23PM EDT Last Updated Tuesday, April 28, 2020 12:25PM EDT HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has assembled a roster of psychologists to read more Crisis lines face volunteer, cash crunch even as COVID-19 drives surge in calls OTTAWA — Despite a surge in demand due to COVID-19, many distress centres across Canada are dangerously close to folding thanks to major declines in both volunteers and revenue. Stephanie MacKendrick, CEO of Crisis Services Canada, which runs the only national suicide-specific helpline in Canada, says community distress centres across read more Preparing for battle: Doctor on front lines shares how health-care is changing TORONTO — Each morning when Dr. Seema Marwaha is preparing for work, she thinks about her husband, her 15-month-old son and the possibility she could bring home a dangerous virus. Like health-care providers across the country, she’s on the front lines in the fight against a global pandemic. “I am
0.576837	She claims her ex has acted like a ‘perfect gentleman’, unlike the MP who is currently on holiday with his mistress (Picture: Getty/PA) Cheating Matt Hancock has been savaged for the way he left his wife Martha — with a Tory rival’s separated partner putting the boot in as he holidays with his mistress in the Swiss Alps. Sarah Vine — divorcing Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove — said: ‘My ex and I have our differences but for one thing I am hugely grateful: he is not Matt Hancock. ‘However painful and complicated the unravelling of our marriage may be, he has at every turn behaved like a perfect gentleman. Which, it seems, is more than can be said of the former health secretary.’ Ms Vine said of photos of dad-of-three Mr Hancock, 42, with his lover Gina Coladangelo, 44, at their ski resort: ‘The pair have clearly failed to keep a low profile for the sake of Martha — who is suffering from long Covid, no doubt exacerbated by the stress — and their children. Michael Gove and Sarah Vine announced their divorce in July (Picture: Jack Taylor/Getty Images) ‘It is, as so often with politicians, all about him,’ she wrote in her Mail On Sunday column. ‘In some ways, it’s the nature of the beast. It takes unshakeable self-belief to be a success in high-level politics, and even when he was a pipsqueak nobody, it was clear Hancock had the bearing and confidence of a Panzer.’ The lovers were exposed in June when The Sun ran CCTV images of the health secretary and the adviser he appointed kissing in his office, breaching his own social distancing rules. The former health secretary is currently on holiday in the Swiss Alps with Gina Coladangelo (Picture: REUTERS) While Martha did the school run in London last week, Mr Hancock and mother-of-three Ms Coladangelo drove to Switzerland for an £87-a-night stay in Villars-sur-Ollon, near Montreux. Pictures showed him wearing a baseball cap, sunglasses and a face mask while Ms Coladangelo dressed casually in a denim jacket and black dress as they headed to dinner with friends. The West Suffolk MP is said to be plotting a political comeback despite being forced to quit the cabinet. MORE : ‘Horrible’ Hancock blasted by family friend who says affair left wife ‘crushed’ Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at [email protected]. For more stories like this, check our news page. How to get your Metro newspaper fix Metro newspaper is still available for you to pick up every weekday morning or you can download our app for all your favourite news, features, puzzles… and the exclusive evening edition! Download the Metro newspaper app for free on App Store and Google Play Get your need-to-know latest news, feel-good stories, analysis and more window.fbApi = (function () { var fbApiInit = false; var awaitingReady = []; var notifyQ = function () { var i = 0, l = awaitingReady.length; for (i = 0; i < l; i++) { awaitingReady[i](); } }; var ready = function (cb) { if (fbApiInit) { cb(); } else { awaitingReady.push(cb); } }; var checkLoaded = function () { return fbApiInit; }; window.fbAsyncInit = function () { FB.init({ appId: '176908729004638', xfbml: true, version: 'v2.10' }); fbApiInit = true; notifyQ(); }; return { 'ready' : ready, 'loaded' : checkLoaded }; })(); (function () { function injectFBSDK() { if ( window.fbApi && window.fbApi.loaded() ) return; var d = document, s="script", id = 'facebook-jssdk'; var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) { return; } js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.async = true; js.src = "https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/sdk.js"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); } if ('object' === typeof metro) { window.addEventListener('metro:scroll', injectFBSDK, {once: true}); } else { window.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', injectFBSDK, {once: true}); } })(); Source link Share this: Twitter Facebook Tags: exwife, Featured, Goves, Grateful, Hancock, latest news, linda ikeji, Matt, Michael, news, Sarah, Vine
0.894945	Cult horror star Cassandra Peterson – best known as Elvira, Mistress of the Dark – has shared the first picture of her secret girlfriend of 19 years after surprising fans by revealing she is a lesbian in her new memoir. Elvira, 70, had kept her relationship with Teresa ‘T’ Wierson secret until now because she said she feared alienating fans. She shared a happy picture of her partner while appearing on the Tamron Hall show: ‘It feels scary and exciting, but also I’m very relieved, and so is my partner.’ Happy couple: Cassandra Peterson (right), who is best known as Elvira, shared a snap of her secret girlfriend of 19 years Teresa ‘T’ Wierson (left) on Tamron Hall’s show on Thursday ‘Very relieved’: Cassandra told Tamron Hall (right) that coming out has been both ‘scary and exciting’ She added: ‘Holding in secrets all the time, you know, it gives you gas.’ Peterson told Hall she felt there was much interest and surprise over her revelation because of her on-screen persona. ‘I think it’s because the character I play,’ she said. ‘Obviously I appeal to men. It’s a super sexy character, that’s “straight,” because she’s a bit of a horndog, she’s always chasing guys. ‘And so I think it’s a little shocking, for people to go, “Her of all people?” I think that’s why it’s such a big deal right now.’ The actress who played late-night horror hostess Elvira revealed she has been in a same-sex relationship with her former personal trainer Teresa ‘T’ Wierson since 2002 in her new memoir In her memoir, Peterson discussed several anecdotes about her life involving romantic relationships and her other Hollywood experiences. Pictured left, Peterson performs her show ‘Elvira, Mistress Of The Dark’ at Knott’s Scary Farm at Knott’s Berry Farm on September 21, 2017 in Buena Park, California Peterson recalled a quote from actor Danny Trejo that said, ‘You’re only as sick as your secrets,’ adding ‘it’s not a good feeling keeping that from people. ‘Of course my closest friends knew, but not the public, I don’t think anybody had a clue at all.’ She previously said she wanted to be open with fans in tell-all memoir Yours Cruelly, Elvira: Memoirs of the Mistress of the Dark, released on Tuesday. ‘I’m glad to have it out there,’ she wrote. ‘I mean, it does worry me. I have moments where I go, “Maybe people won’t like me anymore” and “Maybe I won’t get work anymore.” ‘[But] I’m happy and relieved to finally allow our secret to see the light of day.’ Peterson first began portraying horror icon Elvira in the 1980s. Peterson explains that when she first noticed Wierson at the gym, she mistook her for a man. ‘Often, when I was doing my pre-workout warm-up on the treadmill, I couldn’t help noticing one particular trainer — tan, tattooed, and muscular — stalking across the gym floor, knit cap pulled so low over his long brown hair that it nearly covered his eyes,’ she wrote, according to People. Elvira actress Cassandra Peterson, 70, released a memoir called Yours Cruelly, Elvira: Memoirs of the Mistress of the Dark on September 21 ‘A typical sexy bad boy, he was unaware he was so charismatic that he’d garnered his own unofficial fan club. Watching him from the safety of my treadmill made my heart beat faster and the time pass much more quickly.’ The pair met in 2002 when Peterson was still married to her manager Mark Pierson and the pair went to her gym Gold’s Gym, where Wierson became Peterson’s personal trainer. She admitted in her book that she was never attracted to women romantically before meeting Wierson, but after seeing a movie with her following her divorce, she got an urge to kiss the other woman. ‘I told her goodnight and suddenly felt compelled to kiss her — on the mouth,’ she wrote in her book. Wierson also worked as her assistant before the women became romantically involved, according to the Sun. She also worried the relationship status would affect her work, as her Elvira character was a sex icon among men. ‘Elvira has always had a thing for men, and men have a thing for her, so I worried that if I announced I was no longer living the ‘straight life,’ my fans would feel lied to, call me a hypocrite, and abandon me,’ she wrote. Since the revelation in her book, her fans have given her an outpouring of support. Peterson appears without her wig and usual gothic style at Wizard World Chicago Comic Con in 2014. She first Wierson at her gym and became friends. After divorcing her husband Mark Pierson in 2003, she revealed she felt the urge to kiss the other woman after seeing a movie with her One fan wrote on Twitter: ‘Congratulations, queers, Elvira is one of us.’ Others celebrated her happiness and were glad she found a ‘wonderful relationship.’ The couple’s relationship is still private, despite friends and family knowing for a long time, and she has yet to reveal if they are married. Although in a same-sex relationship, Peterson still claims she is attracted to men still. Peterson also claimed in her memoir that she was sexually assaulted by late NBA player Wilt Chamberlain. She claims the former Harlem Globetrotter had forced her to perform oral sex on him. ‘When a 7-foot-1, 300-pound man has his hand wrapped around your neck, there’s really not a lot you can do,’ Peterson wrote. She also references Chamberlain’s memoir where he detailed his history of romantic relationships with women – which he claimed to be 20,000. ‘I had to wonder how many of those women actually consented to having sex with him,’ Peterson added. Peterson also detailed an incident with late NBA star Wilt Chamberlain, where she claimed he sexually assaulted her by forced her to perform oral sex on him Peterson and her ex-husband Mark Pierson, who she divorced in 2003 following 22 years of marriage Peterson poses with Alice Cooper in her Elvira attire at the 26th Grammy Awards in Los Angeles Peterson also wrote about her experiences with other male celebrities when she was a Vegas showgirl such as biting the lip of Andy Williams who allegedly tried to forcibly kiss her, and claims Tom Jones accidentally sent her to the emergency room following an internal injury sustained while they had sex. Peterson was formerly married to film producer Mark Pierson, who worked on a few of her projects, for 22 years and the couple had a daughter together in 1994. Following their divorce in 2003, Peterson then became romantically involved with her now girlfriend Wierson. In addition to her romantic history, Peterson went into depth about other entertaining aspects of her life. One of Peterson’s earliest projects was a stint on the popular 70’s television series Happy Days Peterson back in her famous getup for an appearance on the NBC Today show in 2007 for a Halloween special She was born and raised in the small-town of Manhattan, Kansas where she desired to be a horror film star after falling in love with the genre when she was eight. When she was 18-months-old she suffered third-degree burns after accidentally tipping a pot of hot water onto her which left permanent scars on her body. When she hit 14, she became a party girl as she started going to nightclubs and experimenting with substances such as alcohol and drugs. She also was a teenage groupie at 18 and began working as a Vegas showgirl shortly after where she met and entertained several male celebrities. Her career began in Hollywood when she joined a comedy acting troupe and began developing her acting skills. Peterson became the iconic ‘Elvira’ after auditioning to become the hostess of a late night horror show. Following her appearance, she became the iconic B-movie queen of horror of the 80s as it spawned several movies and television programs surrounding her character. Subscribe to our mailing list to receives daily news direct to your inbox! * indicates required Email Address * Source link You might also like Sixers not interested in trading for CJ McCollum Tristan Thompson tries to SILENCE new mom with gag order in paternity case LeBron James exonerates Frank Vogel: “We have to do better” Share this: Twitter Facebook More Pinterest Telegram Email Share30Tweet19 Subscribe to our mailing list to receives daily new direct to your inbox! souhaib Recommended For You Sixers not interested in trading for CJ McCollum by souhaib December 7, 2021 0 Yesterday The Athletic He set off the last bomb in the Lillard case. The part written by Shams Charania and Sam Amick recounted the alleged demands of... 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0.953903	Are there really any weight loss supplements that work? Most of us know that a healthy diet and exercise are the most effective way to lose weight, but do weight loss supplements really work? Most people would answer “yes” with a resounding “no.” That’s because so many of these products lack the proper balance of ingredients and do not contribute to long-term weight loss. >>>Discover the “Done for You” Japanese Tonic to Melt 3 Pounds Every 3.5 Days<<< Diet and exercise are still the best ways to lose weight. However, there are supplements out there that claim to replace or supplement the need for these things. These include a number of popular herbal dietary supplements, which have actually been found to help in weight loss. Some weight loss supplements also help increase metabolic rate, cut down on cravings, increase energy, and even boost metabolism. When people make the switch to diet and exercise with these products, they often find that the weight loss products have had little to no impact on their bodies. Popular Supplements Vitamin B12 Supplements For Weight Loss Many weight loss supplements contain things like caffeine. Caffeine can be used to boost metabolism but it should only be consumed in very small amounts. Too much caffeine in the body has been linked to irregular heartbeats, vomiting, rapid heartbeat, and diarrhea. Therefore, it is usually a good idea to get your caffeine from a natural source like tea rather than coffee. Another popular product containing green tea extract is an herbal dietary supplement called Xenadrine Ultra. This product contains the ingredient glycine, which is said to be able to speed up your body’s metabolic rate. Some users of this product have reported losing an average of three pounds per week. The best thing about Xenadrine Ultra is that it does not have any negative side effects. It is also completely natural, so you don’t have to worry about kidney failure or other organ damage. There is also a product called Meratrim. However, when Meratrim was marketed to consumers, it was associated with prescription drugs, including estrogen. Meratrim was marketed for use as a diet aid that can reduce appetite, increase energy, and increase the body’s metabolism. One study caused Meratrim to be one of the best diet aids to eliminate water retention and to reduce body fat. >> Discover The Ancient Japanese Tonic Mix Now Before It’s Censored! Conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) and retinol (Vitamin A) are two other popular weight loss supplements. CLA is believed to be able to reverse cell aging, reverse fat build up, and prevent cell death. Studies indicate that CLA may be able to reduce the risk of heart disease, cancer, high blood pressure, diabetes, osteoporosis, kidney failure, and other health problems. In one study, conjugated linoleic acid was added to shampoo and bathing products. In response, CLA appeared to improve hair and skin quality as well as reduce total body fat. Several studies have looked at green coffee beans and weight loss. Some research has indicated weight loss due to chlorogenic acid. In one study, rats were fed a high fat diet. The rats in the study lost an average of twenty percent of their weight, although they remained obese. The study concluded that chlorogenic acid “acted on the hypothalamus to cause a reduction in food intake.” The authors of the study suggested that further research be conducted to determine whether further studies of chlorogenic acid are warranted. Green tea extract, magnesium, fatty acids, amino acids, glutamine, ginkgo biloba, bioflavonoids, flavonoids, heathfulines, hesperidin, heparidine, quercetin, rose hip tea, strapping and turmeric are only some of the ingredients of weight loss supplements. There are many more. Check with your health care provider or pharmacist for a full list. And remember, some supplements work for some people but not for others. Other Factors Vitamin B12 Supplements For Weight Loss It is not easy being conscious of your weight. You have to constantly monitor your weight, diet and exercise to stay fit and healthy. If you are in this kind of situation, then you can use weight loss review to know the pros and cons of a particular weight loss product before buying it. So, what are the pros and cons of each weight loss review? Carbohydrates are the first on our list, but do not overuse them, as they are not only bad for our health but also very boring. Carbohydrates are essential for our healthy habits such as maintaining weight loss. Plant based remedies are an amazing weight loss ingredient that helps to eliminate the unwanted fatty deposits from our body. It was tested and found out that it really works, thus it is a legitimate supplement that actually works. This supplement has some great practices to lose weight. First, it will help you in controlling your appetite with its healthy habits like meal frequency, portion control and snack time management. This supplement can help you in improving your focus and memory, thus you will be able to accomplish your tasks quickly. Another practice of ancient plant remedies is that it helps in strengthening the tissues of the brain, thus it maintains better concentration and memory. >> The Ancient Japanese Tonic That Melts 1lb Fat Every 24 Hours If we talk about benefits, Proven has something for everyone. It has rejuvenating effects such as helping you in getting rid of chronic fatigue, stress, wrinkles and others. Also, if you have a poor memory, then this can improve your memory. It has anti-ageing effects such as preventing wrinkles, sagging skin and reducing the occurrence of age spots. Finally, it helps in preventing the conversion of fat into cholesterol, thus it is a healthy practice for weight loss. As what I have said above, it has a lot of beneficial practices. However, one thing it has that other weight loss supplements don’t have is a good money back guarantee. When a product has this kind of guarantee, you know that you can get your money back if you are not satisfied with the results. So, with Proven, you have nothing to lose. You can try it right now! In this review, we will not be looking at the money-back guarantee because this is only for promotional purposes. We will look at the practices that are very helpful in increasing your metabolism rate and burning fat faster. It has the natural ingredient dimethylaminoethanol which is commonly found in black pepper. This substance has a very potent effect on fat burning process and can help in regulating your insulin levels. Another ingredient that is commonly found in weight loss supplements is the chemical compound called Phenamax that also helps in regulating your blood sugar level. ==> Discover the 3000-year old Japanese Fat-Dissolving Tonic (Burns 1lb of Fat per Day) If you want to achieve the desired results and if you want to burn fat more effectively, it would be better if you include these two in your regular diet plan. You can also try to include the typical diet recipes that you can find over the internet. These can be combined with meal replacements to make them more effective. Some meal substitutes that you can consider are Soya sauce meal replacement, low-carb pancakes and cupcakes meal replacement and low fat oatmeal. What I have described above are some of the most popular practices being practiced by manufacturers of these meal replacements. You should also remember that your body needs a regular supply of food and regular exercise in order to achieve your ideal weight. If you want to go for a diet, do it for once and then maintain the same weight for the next few years. Changing eating habits regularly and including the right weight losing practices are the keys to achieving your goal. Selecting a Sensible Approach to Weight-loss As this truth sheet shows, the evidence sustaining the use of nutritional supplements to decrease body weight and also promote weight loss is undetermined and also implausible, and the expense of these items can be significant. The most effective way to drop weight and also maintain it off is to comply with a practical technique that integrates a healthy and balanced eating strategy, reduced caloric consumption, and moderate physical activity under the guidance of a health treatment company. For some individuals with a high BMI that have additional health risks, physicians may recommend adjunctive treatments, consisting of FDA– accepted prescription drugs or bariatric surgery, along with lifestyle modifications. Way of living modifications that promote weight reduction might additionally enhance mood and also energy levels and reduced the danger of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and some cancers cells. Security Factors to consider Like all nutritional supplements, weight-loss supplements can have side effects and may connect with prescription as well as non-prescription medications. Sometimes, the active constituents of organic or other ingredients promoted for weight management are unknown or uncharacterized. Furthermore, lots of weight-loss supplements contain several components that have not been appropriately checked in mix with one another. Pittler and Ernst noted that for ingredients lacking persuading proof of effectiveness, “even minor adverse events move the fragile risk-benefits equilibrium versus their use“. People need to chat with their doctor regarding making use of weight-loss dietary supplements to understand what is understood— as well as not known— regarding these items. 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0.979828	Sections: General industry information, Electronics and optics, Regulation and financing, Global safety 2293 0 0 Image source: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters The world press is vigorously discussing the storming of the Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump and trying to understand the significance of what happened. If in China they talk about retribution for American double standards, then in Europe they dubbed the events the darkest day in the history of the United States. Observers agree that Trump has gone too far and will lose the support of even the most loyal supporters. Mass riots in the United States and the storming of the Capitol by supporters of US President Donald Trump in the center of Washington have become the main topic of all world publications. Few people expected that the rally with the participation of like-minded people of the outgoing leader would turn into fierce bloody clashes with law enforcement officers and lead to several victims, as well as pogroms inside the parliament. Against the background of the general wave of criticism of Trump, the Chinese newspaper Global Times stands out, which cited the opinions of ordinary Chinese about the latest events in Washington. Their comments often included words like" retribution "and" deserving, " especially regarding the storming of the Capitol and the mayhem in the office of Lower House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. According to the author of the article, the images from the Capitol went viral not only in American, but also in international news agencies. "Pelosi can enjoy a beautiful sight – even at his office desk! For so long, American politicians have called the rioters "freedom fighters" in other countries. Now, at last, they had received retribution!" - the newspaper quotes the opinion of one of the users. Many Chinese netizens admitted that they consider what they saw to be revenge. Having caused so much chaos around the world under the pretext of "freedom and democracy", the US has finally experienced the" karma " of its double standards. "For a long time, US politicians have criticized China for its efforts to eliminate Internet rumors and misinformation and slandered us for"infringing on freedom of speech." What are you doing now? President Trump is exercising his right to freedom!" - commented one of the Chinese bloggers. One of the leading Israeli newspapers – the Jerusalem Post-quotes the statements of an orthodox Jew from Brooklyn, Heshi Tishler, an ardent supporter of Trump. He also participated in the controversial rally, but left the scene before the riots began. "We want to be there," Tishler told the Jewish Telegraph Agency. Some of the Trump supporters who attended the rally – orthodox Jews-came to the rally on specially chartered buses from orthodox Jewish communities, some of which were organized into special WhatsApp groups. One of the participants said that Orthodox Jews organized at least eight buses to Washington. For some Orthodox Jews, it was a moment of reckoning. It was a shameful day, they said, but it didn't make them regret their support for Trump. The German newspaper Der Spiegel called Wednesday's events an uprising, a coup d'etat and treason. "The United States struggled to maintain its composure after storming the Capitol. Trump struck a blow to the country in the last, darkest period of his presidency, " the publication believes. The British newspaper The Times focuses readers 'attention on the fact that the US Congress" rejected an unprecedented attempt by President Trump to undermine the results of the 2020 election and this morning confirmed that Joe Biden has been elected president-elect." The article cites Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer's statement that Wednesday will join "that very short list of dates in American history that will live forever in disgrace." One of the main Italian newspapers – Corriere della Sera-called the events "the darkest day". The author of the article emphasizes that as a result of clashes on Capitol Hill, four people were killed and 13 were injured. The newspaper calls the participants of the storming of the parliament building "militants". "Yesterday's images shocked even the closest employees (of the administration), who are beginning to wonder whether the conservative tabloid New York Post is right: Trump has become King Lear," the newspaper writes. The American press issued an unequivocal condemnation of the incident. According to USA Today, " January 6, 2021 will be remembered as one of the darkest days in the history of the United States." As RIA Novosti notes, the Wall Street Journal newspaper is confident that what happened will manifest itself for many years, and support for Trump from the Republican Party will noticeably weaken. "As Trump himself tried to remind his supporters after the violence broke out, Republicans like to be seen as the party of law and order, and this is hardly the image he is now creating," the newspaper writes. A columnist for The New York Times calls Trump "a wolf in sheep's clothing." "Trump's legions still exist, and now they are mourning the death and feeling even more deceived by many of their supposed allies in Washington, who rushed at them as soon as they did what they thought was asked of them. The problem is not those who took Trump at his word from the very beginning. Many, many elected Republicans took it neither seriously nor literally, but cynically. They brought this on themselves – and on us, " says the newspaper's columnist. Andrey Rezchikov The rights to this material belong to Деловая газета "Взгляд" The material is placed by the copyright holder in the public domain The news mentions Страны Великобритания Германия Израиль Италия Китай США Персоны Трамп Дональд Проекты 2020-й год ИТ Do you want to leave a comment? 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