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arnold-j/_sent_mail/373.
|
Re: VaR ,
i am free to talk this afternoon if you want
| 3,342 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/374.
|
,
call me when you get this
| 3,343 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/375.
|
New curve generation methodology ,
I am changing the way the curve is generated starting in Jan 2004 to better
replicate seasonal fundamentals. There are convincing arguments as to why
the summer/winter spreads should tighten over time. However, in the previous
methodology they blew out. For instance summer/winter in Cal 3 was .232
while Cal 10 was .256.
I have added a seasonality dampening function that both contracts the
summer/winter spread and applies a premium to the electric load demand months
of July and August over time.
The formula for the curve remains the same except for a premium lookup for
the month as well as for the year. These premiums are as follows:
Jan -.008
Feb -.004
Mar -.001
Apr .002
May .003
Jun .004
Jul .004
Aug .004
Sep .003
Oct .002
Nov -.003
Dec -.006
These premiums start in Jan 2004
On Wednesday Jan 2003 settled 2.959, the 3/4 spread was marked at .0375, the
4/5 spread was marked at .0475.
In the old methodology
Jan 2003 = 2.959
Jan 2004 = 2.959 + .0375 = 2.9965
Jan 2005 = 2.9965 + .0475 = 3.044
In the new methodology
Jan 2003 = 2.959
Jan 2004 = 2.959 + .0375 - .008 =2.9885
Jan 2005 = 2.9885 + .0475 -.008 = 3.028
The only change in the formula is from:
Month x = Month (x- 1 year) + lookup on year on year table
to
Month x = Month (x- 1 year) + lookup on year on year table + lookup on month
premium table
The seasonality premiums will change over time and I will let you know when I
change them
| 3,344 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/376.
|
Re: VaR ,
I am free at 3:30 on Thursday at my desk.
| 3,345 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/377.
|
Re: Insurance Call Spread ,
sounds good
| 3,346 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/378.
|
,
My brother was coming back from London to go so I went out and paid a fortune
from a scalper for two....
I really do appreciate it though..
| 3,347 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/379.
|
Re: ,
club seats extra wide extra leg room extra waitresses
| 3,348 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/38.
|
Re: ENSIDE Newsletter ,
I'm always here so just coordinate with my assistant, Ina Rangle. Thanks,
John
Kathie Grabstald
11/20/2000 02:32 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: ENSIDE Newsletter
Good Afternoon, John!
Thanks for agreeing to be one of the Profile articles in the next issue of
the ENSIDE. Michelle Vitrella assured me that you would be an interesting
topic! Our newsletter is set for publication in February and I am setting my
interview schedule now. I would love to sit down and visit with you for
about 30 minutes in the early part of December. Please let me know a day and
time that is convenient for you.
I look forward to hearing from you!
Kathie Grabstald
ENA Public Relations
x 3-9610
| 3,349 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/380.
|
Re: ,
sec 222 row 2
| 3,350 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/382.
|
Re: ,
7:00 game
can you let me know tomorrow??
| 3,352 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/383.
|
,
lyle lovett national anthem
nolan ryan first pitch
dwight gooden first real pitch
| 3,353 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/384.
|
,
Hello:
I just wanted to arrange to meet for the Astros tickets.
I work and live downtown.
My cell phone number is 713-557-3330.
Thanks,
John
| 3,354 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/385.
|
Re: ,
i just had the whole it staff up here.
I just got two good tickets to Thursday's Astros/Yankees game
| 3,355 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/386.
|
,
hey:
when are you back in town??
| 3,356 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/387.
|
,
Hey :
Just wanted to see if you're doing anything tonight...
Any interest in getting dinner?
John
| 3,357 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/388.
|
Re: Enron Online ,
Please grant Steven Vu execution privileges on EOL
John Arnold
| 3,358 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/389.
|
Re: EnronOnline Approval Access Request ,
Pleas approve Tricia's request to become an authorized EOL trader
| 3,359 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/39.
|
Re: Cal02 ,
isn't market making on electronic systems fun???
[email protected] on 11/20/2000 01:17:35 PM
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: Cal02
I cant go take a pee w/o you sneaking up on me on ICE, ICE BABY.
| 3,360 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/390.
|
Re: AOL Instant Messenger Confirmation (ziEbq0PbJo enronjda) ,
ok
| 3,361 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/391.
|
Re: Defense ,
maine impossible to get to .. next idea?
| 3,362 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/392.
|
RE: waiting ,
maine impossible to get to...next option?
| 3,363 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/393.
|
Re: Natural gas update ,
mark:
what are your thoughts on crude and gasoline?
"Mark Sagel" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 09:23:02 PM
To: "John Arnold" <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: Natural gas update
Latest natural report
- ng051301.doc
| 3,364 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/394.
|
Re: ,
most bullish thing at this point is moving closer to everyone's
psychological $4 price target and that everybody and their dog is still
short. next sellers need to be from producer community. saw a little this
week with williams hedging the barrett transaction but wouldnt say thats
indicative of the rest of the e&p community. short covering rallies will
get more common here. velocity of move down has slowed significantly for
good (except maybe in bid week). my concern is if we go to $4 and people
want to cover some shorts, who's selling it to them? might feel a lot like
it did when we were trying to break $5.
| 3,365 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/395.
|
,
most bullish thing at this point is moving closer to everyone's
psychological $4 price target and that everybody and their dog is still
short. next sellers need to be from producer community. saw a little this
week with williams hedging the barrett transaction but wouldnt say thats
indicative of the rest of the e&p community. short covering rallies will
get more common here. velocity of move down has slowed significantly for
good (except maybe in bid week). my concern is if we go to $4 and people
want to cover some shorts, who's selling it to them? might feel a lot like
it did when we were trying to break $5.
| 3,366 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/396.
|
RE: waiting ,
yea
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:50:42 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: waiting
nevermind. are you at work?
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 5:42 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: waiting
huh?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:32:22 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: waiting
No english? i got the math.
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 5:24 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: waiting
probability *
payout =
1 heads .5 0 = 0
tails 2 heads .25 1
= .25
tails 3 heads .125 2
= .25
tails 4 heads .0625 4
= .25
tails 5 heads .03125 8
= .25
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:23:47 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: waiting
which game is that?
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 5:16 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: waiting
Expected value of game = 1/2 * 0 + 1/4 * 1 + 1/8 *2 + 1/16 *4 +1/32 *
8+....
= 0 +.25 +.25 +.25 +.25 +...
= infinity
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:11:46 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: waiting
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:37 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
rules to a game:
You flip a coin. If you get tails you win 0. if you get heads, i give you
$1. Keep flipping until you get a tails, at which point you walk away with
the money. however, each heads you get after the first you double your
money. So if you flip heads 3 times and then tails, you get $4. What's
you bid/offer on playing this game? (would you pay $.5 to play? $1? $2?
what you charge me play against you?)
| 3,367 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/398.
|
RE: waiting ,
huh?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:32:22 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: waiting
No english? i got the math.
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 5:24 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: waiting
probability *
payout =
1 heads .5 0 = 0
tails 2 heads .25 1
= .25
tails 3 heads .125 2
= .25
tails 4 heads .0625 4
= .25
tails 5 heads .03125 8
= .25
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:23:47 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: waiting
which game is that?
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 5:16 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: waiting
Expected value of game = 1/2 * 0 + 1/4 * 1 + 1/8 *2 + 1/16 *4 +1/32 *
8+....
= 0 +.25 +.25 +.25 +.25 +...
= infinity
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:11:46 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: waiting
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:37 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
rules to a game:
You flip a coin. If you get tails you win 0. if you get heads, i give you
$1. Keep flipping until you get a tails, at which point you walk away with
the money. however, each heads you get after the first you double your
money. So if you flip heads 3 times and then tails, you get $4. What's
you bid/offer on playing this game? (would you pay $.5 to play? $1? $2?
what you charge me play against you?)
| 3,369 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/399.
|
,
most bullish thing at this point is moving closer to everyone's psychological
$4 price target and that everybody and their dog is still short. next
sellers need to be from producer community. saw a little this week with
williams hedging the barrett transaction but wouldnt say thats indicative of
the rest of the e&p community. short covering rallies will get more common
here. velocity of move down has slowed significantly for good (except maybe
in bid week). my concern is if we go to $4 and people want to cover some
shorts, who's selling it to them? might feel a lot like it did when we were
trying to break $5.
| 3,370 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/4.
|
Re: EDF trades switched to ABN ,
come by whenever
Sarah Wesner@ENRON
12/12/2000 01:31 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: EDF trades switched to ABN
John - I need to talk to you about this, are you free today? Sarah
| 3,371 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/40.
|
,
best GUESS P&L tonight is +7
| 3,372 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/400.
|
Re: Defense ,
don't make me type the math on the computer pooks
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:05:12 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: Defense
What's your defense for you bid 0 for the company? Why was the info
assymetry at 100%???
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:54 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: Extra credit
have you taken any finance courses yet? what's good?
| 3,373 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/401.
|
RE: waiting ,
probability * payout =
1 heads .5 0 = 0
tails 2 heads .25 1 = .25
tails 3 heads .125 2 = .25
tails 4 heads .0625 4 = .25
tails 5 heads .03125 8 = .25
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:23:47 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: waiting
which game is that?
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 5:16 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: waiting
Expected value of game = 1/2 * 0 + 1/4 * 1 + 1/8 *2 + 1/16 *4 +1/32 *
8+....
= 0 +.25 +.25 +.25 +.25 +...
= infinity
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:11:46 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: waiting
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:37 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
rules to a game:
You flip a coin. If you get tails you win 0. if you get heads, i give you
$1. Keep flipping until you get a tails, at which point you walk away with
the money. however, each heads you get after the first you double your
money. So if you flip heads 3 times and then tails, you get $4. What's
you bid/offer on playing this game? (would you pay $.5 to play? $1? $2?
what you charge me play against you?)
| 3,374 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/402.
|
RE: Extra credit ,
i think it's 100
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:01:23 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: Extra credit
fill in
$ ____2_ per/share
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:54 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: Extra credit
fill in
$ _____ per/share
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 02:39:23 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: Extra credit
what's my bid for what??
ps
don't no crap me.
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:30 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
no crap, what's your bid?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 12:48:23 AM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: Extra credit
break even on info ass-symetry is 100%, any project above that level is
profitable to Pooks&Co.
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 1:04 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: try this one...
For extra credit....
If the company is worth 150% more under management A rather than 50% more,
does your answer change?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/11/2001 05:13:59 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: try this one...
will you do all of my homework?
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Friday, May 11, 2001 8:41 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: try this one...
i'll pay a grand total of 0
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/10/2001 05:15:59 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: try this one...
Please read the following problem very carefully, and write in a number at
the end. You should be ready to defend your answer. Only a number is
allowed, not an algebraic equation.
Acquiring a Company
In the following exercise you will represent Company A (the acquirer),
which is currently considering acquiring Company T (the target) by means of
a tender offer. You plan to tender in cash for 100% of Company T's shares
but are unsure how high a price to offer. The main complication is this:
the value of Company T depends directly on the outcome of a major oil
exploration project it is currently undertaking. Indeed, the very
viability
of Company T depends on the exploration outcome. If the project fails, the
company under current management will be worth nothing--$0/share. But if
the project succeeds, the value of the company under current management
could be as high as $100/share. All share values between $0 and $100 are
considered equally likely. By all estimates, the company will be worth
considerably more in the hands of Company A than under current management.
In fact, whatever the ultimate value under current management, the company
will be worth fifty percent more under the management of A than under
Company T. If the project fails, the company is worth $0/share under
either
management. If the exploration project generates a $50/share value under
current management, the value under Company A is $75/share. Similarly, a
$100/share value under Company T implies a $150/share value under Company
A,
and so on.
The board of directors of Company A has asked you to determine the
price
they should offer for Company T's shares. This offer must be made now,
before the outcome of the drilling project is known. From all indications,
Company T would be happy to be acquired by Company A, provided it is at a
profitable price. Moreover, Company T wishes to avoid, at all cost, the
potential of a takeover bid by any other firm. You expect Company T to
delay a decision on your bid until the results of the project are in, then
accept or reject your offer before the news of the drilling results reaches
the press.
Thus, you (Company A) will not know the results of the exploration
project
when submitting your price offer, but Company T will know the results when
deciding whether or not to accept your offer. In addition, Company T will
accept any offer by Company A that is greater than the (per share) value of
the company under current management. Thus, if you offer $50/share, for
instance, Company T will accept if the value of the company to Company T is
anything less than $50.
As the representative of Company A, you are deliberating over price
offers
in the range of $0/share (this is tantamount to making no offer at all) to
$150/share. What price offer per share would you tender for Company T's
stock?
$______ per/share
| 3,375 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/403.
|
Re: waiting ,
Expected value of game = 1/2 * 0 + 1/4 * 1 + 1/8 *2 + 1/16 *4 +1/32 * 8+....
= 0 +.25 +.25 +.25 +.25 +...
= infinity
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:11:46 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: waiting
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:37 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
rules to a game:
You flip a coin. If you get tails you win 0. if you get heads, i give you
$1. Keep flipping until you get a tails, at which point you walk away with
the money. however, each heads you get after the first you double your
money. So if you flip heads 3 times and then tails, you get $4. What's
you bid/offer on playing this game? (would you pay $.5 to play? $1? $2?
what you charge me play against you?)
| 3,376 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/404.
|
Re: Constellation ,
i think its a jv with the trading side mostly staffed by goldman folks
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:06:01 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: Constellation
so, its a goldman co, but it also controls Duquesne and BGE?
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:58 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: Extra credit
yes
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:03:17 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: Extra credit
is constellation energy a goldman company?
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:55 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: Extra credit
me thinks you missed a 9
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 02:58:28 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: Extra credit
1.99999999999999999999999999999999999
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:37 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
rules to a game:
You flip a coin. If you get tails you win 0. if you get heads, i give you
$1. Keep flipping until you get a tails, at which point you walk away with
the money. however, each heads you get after the first you double your
money. So if you flip heads 3 times and then tails, you get $4. What's
you bid/offer on playing this game? (would you pay $.5 to play? $1? $2?
what you charge me play against you?)
| 3,377 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/405.
|
Re: am i right??? ,
no
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:02:45 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: am i right???
wait, of course i am. i always am.
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:55 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: Extra credit
me thinks you missed a 9
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 02:58:28 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: Extra credit
1.99999999999999999999999999999999999
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:37 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
rules to a game:
You flip a coin. If you get tails you win 0. if you get heads, i give you
$1. Keep flipping until you get a tails, at which point you walk away with
the money. however, each heads you get after the first you double your
money. So if you flip heads 3 times and then tails, you get $4. What's
you bid/offer on playing this game? (would you pay $.5 to play? $1? $2?
what you charge me play against you?)
| 3,378 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/406.
|
RE: Extra credit ,
yes
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:03:17 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: Extra credit
is constellation energy a goldman company?
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:55 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: Extra credit
me thinks you missed a 9
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 02:58:28 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: Extra credit
1.99999999999999999999999999999999999
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:37 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
rules to a game:
You flip a coin. If you get tails you win 0. if you get heads, i give you
$1. Keep flipping until you get a tails, at which point you walk away with
the money. however, each heads you get after the first you double your
money. So if you flip heads 3 times and then tails, you get $4. What's
you bid/offer on playing this game? (would you pay $.5 to play? $1? $2?
what you charge me play against you?)
| 3,379 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/407.
|
Re: 2 ,
are you prepared to defend your answer?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 03:01:04 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: 2
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:54 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: Extra credit
and your offer?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 02:58:28 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: Extra credit
1.99999999999999999999999999999999999
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:37 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
rules to a game:
You flip a coin. If you get tails you win 0. if you get heads, i give you
$1. Keep flipping until you get a tails, at which point you walk away with
the money. however, each heads you get after the first you double your
money. So if you flip heads 3 times and then tails, you get $4. What's
you bid/offer on playing this game? (would you pay $.5 to play? $1? $2?
what you charge me play against you?)
| 3,380 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/408.
|
RE: Extra credit ,
me thinks you missed a 9
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 02:58:28 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: Extra credit
1.99999999999999999999999999999999999
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:37 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
rules to a game:
You flip a coin. If you get tails you win 0. if you get heads, i give you
$1. Keep flipping until you get a tails, at which point you walk away with
the money. however, each heads you get after the first you double your
money. So if you flip heads 3 times and then tails, you get $4. What's
you bid/offer on playing this game? (would you pay $.5 to play? $1? $2?
what you charge me play against you?)
| 3,381 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/409.
|
RE: Extra credit ,
have you taken any finance courses yet? what's good?
| 3,382 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/41.
|
Re: ,
get lost
| 3,383 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/410.
|
RE: Extra credit ,
fill in
$ _____ per/share
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 02:39:23 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: Extra credit
what's my bid for what??
ps
don't no crap me.
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:30 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
no crap, what's your bid?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 12:48:23 AM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: Extra credit
break even on info ass-symetry is 100%, any project above that level is
profitable to Pooks&Co.
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 1:04 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: try this one...
For extra credit....
If the company is worth 150% more under management A rather than 50% more,
does your answer change?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/11/2001 05:13:59 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: try this one...
will you do all of my homework?
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Friday, May 11, 2001 8:41 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: try this one...
i'll pay a grand total of 0
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/10/2001 05:15:59 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: try this one...
Please read the following problem very carefully, and write in a number at
the end. You should be ready to defend your answer. Only a number is
allowed, not an algebraic equation.
Acquiring a Company
In the following exercise you will represent Company A (the acquirer),
which is currently considering acquiring Company T (the target) by means of
a tender offer. You plan to tender in cash for 100% of Company T's shares
but are unsure how high a price to offer. The main complication is this:
the value of Company T depends directly on the outcome of a major oil
exploration project it is currently undertaking. Indeed, the very
viability
of Company T depends on the exploration outcome. If the project fails, the
company under current management will be worth nothing--$0/share. But if
the project succeeds, the value of the company under current management
could be as high as $100/share. All share values between $0 and $100 are
considered equally likely. By all estimates, the company will be worth
considerably more in the hands of Company A than under current management.
In fact, whatever the ultimate value under current management, the company
will be worth fifty percent more under the management of A than under
Company T. If the project fails, the company is worth $0/share under
either
management. If the exploration project generates a $50/share value under
current management, the value under Company A is $75/share. Similarly, a
$100/share value under Company T implies a $150/share value under Company
A,
and so on.
The board of directors of Company A has asked you to determine the
price
they should offer for Company T's shares. This offer must be made now,
before the outcome of the drilling project is known. From all indications,
Company T would be happy to be acquired by Company A, provided it is at a
profitable price. Moreover, Company T wishes to avoid, at all cost, the
potential of a takeover bid by any other firm. You expect Company T to
delay a decision on your bid until the results of the project are in, then
accept or reject your offer before the news of the drilling results reaches
the press.
Thus, you (Company A) will not know the results of the exploration
project
when submitting your price offer, but Company T will know the results when
deciding whether or not to accept your offer. In addition, Company T will
accept any offer by Company A that is greater than the (per share) value of
the company under current management. Thus, if you offer $50/share, for
instance, Company T will accept if the value of the company to Company T is
anything less than $50.
As the representative of Company A, you are deliberating over price
offers
in the range of $0/share (this is tantamount to making no offer at all) to
$150/share. What price offer per share would you tender for Company T's
stock?
$______ per/share
| 3,384 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/411.
|
RE: Extra credit ,
and your offer?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 02:58:28 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: Extra credit
1.99999999999999999999999999999999999
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 4:37 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Extra credit
rules to a game:
You flip a coin. If you get tails you win 0. if you get heads, i give you
$1. Keep flipping until you get a tails, at which point you walk away with
the money. however, each heads you get after the first you double your
money. So if you flip heads 3 times and then tails, you get $4. What's
you bid/offer on playing this game? (would you pay $.5 to play? $1? $2?
what you charge me play against you?)
| 3,385 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/412.
|
Re: Extra credit ,
rules to a game:
You flip a coin. If you get tails you win 0. if you get heads, i give you
$1. Keep flipping until you get a tails, at which point you walk away with
the money. however, each heads you get after the first you double your
money. So if you flip heads 3 times and then tails, you get $4. What's you
bid/offer on playing this game? (would you pay $.5 to play? $1? $2? what
you charge me play against you?)
| 3,386 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/413.
|
Re: Extra credit ,
no crap, what's your bid?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/13/2001 12:48:23 AM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: Extra credit
break even on info ass-symetry is 100%, any project above that level is
profitable to Pooks&Co.
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, May 13, 2001 1:04 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: try this one...
For extra credit....
If the company is worth 150% more under management A rather than 50% more,
does your answer change?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/11/2001 05:13:59 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: try this one...
will you do all of my homework?
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Friday, May 11, 2001 8:41 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: try this one...
i'll pay a grand total of 0
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/10/2001 05:15:59 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: try this one...
Please read the following problem very carefully, and write in a number at
the end. You should be ready to defend your answer. Only a number is
allowed, not an algebraic equation.
Acquiring a Company
In the following exercise you will represent Company A (the acquirer),
which is currently considering acquiring Company T (the target) by means of
a tender offer. You plan to tender in cash for 100% of Company T's shares
but are unsure how high a price to offer. The main complication is this:
the value of Company T depends directly on the outcome of a major oil
exploration project it is currently undertaking. Indeed, the very
viability
of Company T depends on the exploration outcome. If the project fails, the
company under current management will be worth nothing--$0/share. But if
the project succeeds, the value of the company under current management
could be as high as $100/share. All share values between $0 and $100 are
considered equally likely. By all estimates, the company will be worth
considerably more in the hands of Company A than under current management.
In fact, whatever the ultimate value under current management, the company
will be worth fifty percent more under the management of A than under
Company T. If the project fails, the company is worth $0/share under
either
management. If the exploration project generates a $50/share value under
current management, the value under Company A is $75/share. Similarly, a
$100/share value under Company T implies a $150/share value under Company
A,
and so on.
The board of directors of Company A has asked you to determine the
price
they should offer for Company T's shares. This offer must be made now,
before the outcome of the drilling project is known. From all indications,
Company T would be happy to be acquired by Company A, provided it is at a
profitable price. Moreover, Company T wishes to avoid, at all cost, the
potential of a takeover bid by any other firm. You expect Company T to
delay a decision on your bid until the results of the project are in, then
accept or reject your offer before the news of the drilling results reaches
the press.
Thus, you (Company A) will not know the results of the exploration
project
when submitting your price offer, but Company T will know the results when
deciding whether or not to accept your offer. In addition, Company T will
accept any offer by Company A that is greater than the (per share) value of
the company under current management. Thus, if you offer $50/share, for
instance, Company T will accept if the value of the company to Company T is
anything less than $50.
As the representative of Company A, you are deliberating over price
offers
in the range of $0/share (this is tantamount to making no offer at all) to
$150/share. What price offer per share would you tender for Company T's
stock?
$______ per/share
| 3,387 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/414.
|
Re: ,
i need significant lead time to prepare for boots day. please advise earlier
next time.
From: Margaret Allen@ENRON on 05/11/2001 06:09 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re:
I'll be here until tomorrow afternoon, then off to Waco to see my mom. I
just got back to my desk after being in meetings all day. Who knows how long
I'll be here tonight and I have a shit load of work to do tomorrow. Why do I
work here again?
What's up with you? I bought some guest to your floor today but you weren't
around. And I have on boots with curly hair.
Take care, MSA
Oh, let's chat about Guggenheim next week. Are you going on the 17th too?
John Arnold@ECT
05/11/2001 11:58 AM
To: Margaret Allen/Corp/Enron@ENRON
cc:
Subject:
you in town this weekend?
| 3,388 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/415.
|
,
Kim:
I will not be at the may 18 management mtg as I will be in NY on business.
| 3,389 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/416.
|
Re: myrtle beach ,
Appreciate the offer but I won't be able to get out of work,
"Piasio, Stephen [FI]" <[email protected]> on 05/10/2001 11:23:18 AM
To: "'[email protected]'" <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: myrtle beach
do you or any one of your colleagues at the mighty Enron want to join us at
our annual golf outing in Myrtle Beach. You pay the air, we've got the
rest.
Only 4 rules:
no cologne
no top button buttoned on the golf shirt
not permitted to break 100
no cameras
reminder:
Friday June 1 2 rounds
Saturday, June 2 1 round/poolside
Sunday, June 3 1 round
Enron has an open invite. Please let me know.
| 3,390 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/417.
|
RE: try this one... ,
For extra credit....
If the company is worth 150% more under management A rather than 50% more,
does your answer change?
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/11/2001 05:13:59 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: try this one...
will you do all of my homework?
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Friday, May 11, 2001 8:41 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: try this one...
i'll pay a grand total of 0
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/10/2001 05:15:59 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: try this one...
Please read the following problem very carefully, and write in a number at
the end. You should be ready to defend your answer. Only a number is
allowed, not an algebraic equation.
Acquiring a Company
In the following exercise you will represent Company A (the acquirer),
which is currently considering acquiring Company T (the target) by means of
a tender offer. You plan to tender in cash for 100% of Company T's shares
but are unsure how high a price to offer. The main complication is this:
the value of Company T depends directly on the outcome of a major oil
exploration project it is currently undertaking. Indeed, the very
viability
of Company T depends on the exploration outcome. If the project fails, the
company under current management will be worth nothing--$0/share. But if
the project succeeds, the value of the company under current management
could be as high as $100/share. All share values between $0 and $100 are
considered equally likely. By all estimates, the company will be worth
considerably more in the hands of Company A than under current management.
In fact, whatever the ultimate value under current management, the company
will be worth fifty percent more under the management of A than under
Company T. If the project fails, the company is worth $0/share under
either
management. If the exploration project generates a $50/share value under
current management, the value under Company A is $75/share. Similarly, a
$100/share value under Company T implies a $150/share value under Company
A,
and so on.
The board of directors of Company A has asked you to determine the
price
they should offer for Company T's shares. This offer must be made now,
before the outcome of the drilling project is known. From all indications,
Company T would be happy to be acquired by Company A, provided it is at a
profitable price. Moreover, Company T wishes to avoid, at all cost, the
potential of a takeover bid by any other firm. You expect Company T to
delay a decision on your bid until the results of the project are in, then
accept or reject your offer before the news of the drilling results reaches
the press.
Thus, you (Company A) will not know the results of the exploration
project
when submitting your price offer, but Company T will know the results when
deciding whether or not to accept your offer. In addition, Company T will
accept any offer by Company A that is greater than the (per share) value of
the company under current management. Thus, if you offer $50/share, for
instance, Company T will accept if the value of the company to Company T is
anything less than $50.
As the representative of Company A, you are deliberating over price
offers
in the range of $0/share (this is tantamount to making no offer at all) to
$150/share. What price offer per share would you tender for Company T's
stock?
$______ per/share
| 3,391 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/418.
|
RE: in ,
you dont like my ideas
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/09/2001 05:06:50 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: in
i'll call
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, April 29, 2001 8:15 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject:
pookie:
check this out:
www.sailmainecoast.com/index.html
| 3,392 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/419.
|
,
you in town this weekend?
| 3,393 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/421.
|
Re: Question? ,
yes
Ina Rangel
05/10/2001 05:47 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Question?
John,
Do you think we need to see about sending an IT Tech for you and Maggi on
Friday to make sure everything is working okay? If we do, we would have to
pay for their travel expenses.
It would be beneficial to you instead of having to be on the phone with IT
for any problems.
Let me know.
-Ina
| 3,396 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/422.
|
Re: try this one... ,
i'll pay a grand total of 0
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/10/2001 05:15:59 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: try this one...
Please read the following problem very carefully, and write in a number at
the end. You should be ready to defend your answer. Only a number is
allowed, not an algebraic equation.
Acquiring a Company
In the following exercise you will represent Company A (the acquirer),
which is currently considering acquiring Company T (the target) by means of
a tender offer. You plan to tender in cash for 100% of Company T's shares
but are unsure how high a price to offer. The main complication is this:
the value of Company T depends directly on the outcome of a major oil
exploration project it is currently undertaking. Indeed, the very viability
of Company T depends on the exploration outcome. If the project fails, the
company under current management will be worth nothing--$0/share. But if
the project succeeds, the value of the company under current management
could be as high as $100/share. All share values between $0 and $100 are
considered equally likely. By all estimates, the company will be worth
considerably more in the hands of Company A than under current management.
In fact, whatever the ultimate value under current management, the company
will be worth fifty percent more under the management of A than under
Company T. If the project fails, the company is worth $0/share under either
management. If the exploration project generates a $50/share value under
current management, the value under Company A is $75/share. Similarly, a
$100/share value under Company T implies a $150/share value under Company A,
and so on.
The board of directors of Company A has asked you to determine the price
they should offer for Company T's shares. This offer must be made now,
before the outcome of the drilling project is known. From all indications,
Company T would be happy to be acquired by Company A, provided it is at a
profitable price. Moreover, Company T wishes to avoid, at all cost, the
potential of a takeover bid by any other firm. You expect Company T to
delay a decision on your bid until the results of the project are in, then
accept or reject your offer before the news of the drilling results reaches
the press.
Thus, you (Company A) will not know the results of the exploration project
when submitting your price offer, but Company T will know the results when
deciding whether or not to accept your offer. In addition, Company T will
accept any offer by Company A that is greater than the (per share) value of
the company under current management. Thus, if you offer $50/share, for
instance, Company T will accept if the value of the company to Company T is
anything less than $50.
As the representative of Company A, you are deliberating over price offers
in the range of $0/share (this is tantamount to making no offer at all) to
$150/share. What price offer per share would you tender for Company T's
stock?
$______ per/share
| 3,397 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/423.
|
RE: in ,
newport??
"Eva Pao" <[email protected]> on 05/09/2001 05:06:50 PM
Please respond to <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: RE: in
i'll call
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, April 29, 2001 8:15 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject:
pookie:
check this out:
www.sailmainecoast.com/index.html
| 3,398 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/424.
|
Re: eBay End of Auction - Item # 1236142249 (DAVE MATTHEWS TICKETS ,
199.99+ $18 o/n shipping = 217.99
Visa 4128 0033 2341 1978 exp 8/02
shipping and billing address :
John Arnold
909 Texas Ave #1812
Houston, TX 77002
713-557-3330
[email protected] on 05/10/2001 01:20:57 AM
To: <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: Re: eBay End of Auction - Item # 1236142249 (DAVE MATTHEWS TICKETS
HOUSTON 4TH ROW 5/12)
Pay Patrick Kenne, [email protected], at paypal.com or bidpay.com, bid
plus $12 for Fed-Ex Saver, or $18 for Fed-Ex overnight shipping. Put shipping
info in note section. If you want Fed-Ex c.o.d., get a money order for bid
plus $25 to Paula Fowler ready to give to fed-ex and e-mail me your shipping
address. If you want to use paypal, add 1% to total, they charge me 2.3%
now!! If you are sending a money order, send to Patrick Kenne 2879 Timber
Range Court Columbus, Ohio 43231. Please include auction # and all shipping
info. Thanks, Pat 614-891-9707
| 3,399 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/428.
|
Re: reminder -pira dinner sund may 13 th 7.45 pm st regis ,
i think the velocity of the down move will be much less severe from here.
still dont think this is equilibrium. need to see aga coming in lower than
expectations for a couple weeks signaling that we've moved down the demand
curve. think a lot of spec shorts are looking to take profits as we get
close to the psychological 400 target. market needs producer selling to get
us through there. have seen some as williams is starting to hedge barrett :
hence the weakness in the back of the curve recently. still going lower but
it will be a tougher move from here.
From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/09/2001 02:12 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: reminder -pira dinner sund may 13 th 7.45 pm st regis
what do you think now?
see you sunday
| 3,403 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/429.
|
RE: ,
maybe they're for more sophisticated palates
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/09/2001 02:27 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
I pawned them off on my unsuspecting coworker - Phil. He liked them!!
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Wednesday, May 09, 2001 2:27 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: Re:
it's an aquired taste
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/09/2001 02:25 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
those things are TERRIBLE!!!!
| 3,404 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/43.
|
Re: Resume ,
Alan:
I received your email. I'll make sure it goes through the proper channels.
It may help if you give specific positions that interest you most as Enron is
such a big place, it will help focus the resume to the right people.
John
| 3,405 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/430.
|
Re: ,
Hot like wasabi when I bust rhymes
Big like Leann Rimes
Because I'm all about value
| 3,406 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/431.
|
Re: ,
it's an aquired taste
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/09/2001 02:25 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
those things are TERRIBLE!!!!
| 3,407 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/432.
|
,
i couldnt do it. it took 13 minutes for my alarm to wake me up.
| 3,408 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/434.
|
RE: ,
i'm just kidding. i'm getting a haircut from 530-600. i'll call you when i
get out.
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 04:49 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
I guess that's fair - considering the deal you worked out with Dean.
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 4:48 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: RE:
you i guess.
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 04:23 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
so who are the drinks on until I do ? . . . . .
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 2:25 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: RE:
drinks on tickleknees if you do
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 02:03 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
you're killing me!!! I WILL close two of the three!!! and I predict that I
will make $500,000 - on two tiny little gas deals.
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 2:04 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: RE:
maybe we need a closer in that seat
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 01:56 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
he's a cheapskate - I am just sitting here on the edge of my seat with three
customers that won't pull the trigger!
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 1:53 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: RE:
how about we celebrate the near completion of your deal and have tickleless
pay for it.
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 01:26 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
push the summer down about $.03-.04 so I can get one of my deals done and we
could celebrate!
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 1:07 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject:
wanna get sauced after work?
| 3,410 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/435.
|
RE: ,
you i guess.
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 04:23 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
so who are the drinks on until I do ? . . . . .
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 2:25 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: RE:
drinks on tickleknees if you do
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 02:03 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
you're killing me!!! I WILL close two of the three!!! and I predict that I
will make $500,000 - on two tiny little gas deals.
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 2:04 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: RE:
maybe we need a closer in that seat
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 01:56 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
he's a cheapskate - I am just sitting here on the edge of my seat with three
customers that won't pull the trigger!
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 1:53 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: RE:
how about we celebrate the near completion of your deal and have tickleless
pay for it.
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 01:26 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
push the summer down about $.03-.04 so I can get one of my deals done and we
could celebrate!
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 1:07 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject:
wanna get sauced after work?
| 3,411 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/436.
|
RE: ,
drinks on tickleknees if you do
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 02:03 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
you're killing me!!! I WILL close two of the three!!! and I predict that I
will make $500,000 - on two tiny little gas deals.
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 2:04 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: RE:
maybe we need a closer in that seat
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 01:56 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
he's a cheapskate - I am just sitting here on the edge of my seat with three
customers that won't pull the trigger!
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 1:53 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: RE:
how about we celebrate the near completion of your deal and have tickleless
pay for it.
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 01:26 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
push the summer down about $.03-.04 so I can get one of my deals done and we
could celebrate!
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 1:07 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject:
wanna get sauced after work?
| 3,412 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/437.
|
RE: ,
maybe we need a closer in that seat
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 01:56 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
he's a cheapskate - I am just sitting here on the edge of my seat with three
customers that won't pull the trigger!
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 1:53 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: RE:
how about we celebrate the near completion of your deal and have tickleless
pay for it.
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 01:26 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
push the summer down about $.03-.04 so I can get one of my deals done and we
could celebrate!
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 1:07 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject:
wanna get sauced after work?
| 3,413 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/438.
|
RE: ,
how about we celebrate the near completion of your deal and have tickleless
pay for it.
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 01:26 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
push the summer down about $.03-.04 so I can get one of my deals done and we
could celebrate!
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 1:07 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject:
wanna get sauced after work?
| 3,414 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/439.
|
RE: ,
is that with or without two snoozes?
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/08/2001 01:24 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
and get up at 5:07 a.m.?
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Tuesday, May 08, 2001 1:07 PM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject:
wanna get sauced after work?
| 3,415 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/44.
|
Re: ,
I almost forget about your debt, but then your BMW 315ia reminded me of it.
| 3,416 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/440.
|
,
wanna get sauced after work?
| 3,417 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/441.
|
Re: RISK Magazine Interview ,
Jennifer:
I don't think we have much interest in doing this interview since it
primarily pertains to our views of the market. I would speak in such
generalities that it probably wouldn't be a good interview.
John
Jennifer Walker@ENRON
05/07/2001 08:57 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RISK Magazine Interview
John:
Kevin Foster with Risk Magazine is working on an article for the June issue
regarding Gas Markets in the U.S. Basically, he is interested in Enron's
opinion of:
1. Physical Supply/Demand of gas and how this is affecting financial trades
2. Where do we anticipate gas prices going over the summer?
3. The state of the industry--any major issues that may affect the market?
If this sounds like a story we would be interested in doing, please let me
know and I will coordinate a short phone interview with Kevin Foster. I know
it usually works best for your schedule to do this after 4pm, so please let
me know if Tuesday after 4 would be good for you.
Thanks for your help and please call me with any questions.
Jennifer Walker
Public Relations
x3-9964
| 3,418 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/442.
|
RE: you shudda been in vegas ,
that night i had so much brain damage i couldnt function.
as opposed to ????
"Lafontaine, Steve" <[email protected]> on 05/07/2001
06:29:44 AM
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: RE: you shudda been in vegas
was a great time-sat at bo collins dinner table spoke briefly. by that nite
i had so much brain damage i couldnt function.
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Friday, May 04, 2001 11:31 AM
To: LaFontaine, Steve
Subject: Re: its never gonna break
your guys are probably seeing this as well, but, 50 cents higher our
customer biz was 95/5 from buy side. now it's 50/50. can almost smell
blood among the producers. only problem is trade is sooooo short they cant
see straight. were the market still not so fundamentally overvalued right
now i'd be looking for a 25 cent move up. just can't see that happening at
this level though.
********************Legal Disclaimer**************************
This email may contain confidential information and is
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has been prepared solely for informational purposes
from sources believed to be reliable, and is not a
solicitation, commitment or offer. All information is
subject to change without notice, and is provided
without warranty as to its completeness or accuracy. If
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immediately delete this email and all copies of it from
your system (including any attachments), destroy any
hard copies of it, and notify the sender. Thank you.
| 3,419 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/443.
|
Re: ng ,
i guess i have to keep my 395 price target. just nothing bullish in the near
term except crude. and that's not enough now. need to get to a new price
regime to pick up more demand quickly.
From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/06/2001 05:47 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: ng
what do you think this week and next 3 weeks-----june expiry 4.20?
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Wednesday, April 25, 2001 7:00 PM
To: Fraser, Jennifer
Subject: Re: please fill in--i lost the scrap of paper
my numbers from mar 15. would raise jun-augy by 10 cents because of the
supportive weather we had from mar 15-apr 15
From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 04/19/2001 01:17 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: please fill in--i lost the scrap of paper
arnold
May-01 455
Jun-01 395
Jul-01 370
Aug-01 350
Sep-01 350
Oct-01 360
Nov-01 360
Dec-01 325
Jan-02 280
Jen Fraser
Enron Global Markets Fundamentals
713-853-4759
| 3,420 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/444.
|
Re: ,
none
From: John J Lavorato/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/07/2001 07:46 AM
To: Phillip K Allen/HOU/ECT@ECT, John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT, Harry
Arora/ENRON@enronXgate, Berney C Aucoin/HOU/ECT@ECT, Edward D
Baughman/ENRON@enronXgate, Tim Belden/ENRON@enronXgate, Christopher F
Calger/ENRON@enronXgate, Derek Davies/CAL/ECT@ECT, Mark Dana
Davis/HOU/ECT@ECT, Joseph Deffner/ENRON@enronXgate, Paul Devries/TOR/ECT@ECT,
W David Duran/HOU/ECT@ECT, Chris H Foster/ENRON@enronXgate, Chris
Gaskill/ENRON@enronXgate, Doug Gilbert-Smith/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Rogers
Herndon/HOU/ECT@ect, Ben Jacoby/HOU/ECT@ECT, Scott Josey/ENRON@enronXgate,
Kyle Kitagawa/CAL/ECT@ECT, Fred Lagrasta/ENRON@enronXgate, John J
Lavorato/ENRON@enronXgate, Eric LeDain/CAL/ECT@ECT, Laura
Luce/Corp/Enron@Enron, Thomas A Martin/ENRON@enronXgate, Jonathan
McKay/CAL/ECT@ECT, Ed McMichael/HOU/ECT@ECT, Don Miller/ENRON@enronXgate,
Michael L Miller/ENRON@enronXgate, Rob Milnthorp/CAL/ECT@ECT, Jean
Mrha/ENRON@enronXgate, Scott Neal/HOU/ECT@ECT, David Parquet/SF/ECT@ECT,
Kevin M Presto/HOU/ECT@ECT, Brian Redmond/ENRON@enronXgate, Hunter S
Shively/ENRON@enronXgate, Fletcher J Sturm/HOU/ECT@ECT, "Swerzbin, Mike"
<[email protected]>@SMTP@enronXgate, C John Thompson/ENRON@enronXgate,
Carl Tricoli/Corp/Enron@Enron, Barry Tycholiz/NA/Enron@ENRON, Frank W
Vickers/NA/Enron@Enron, Lloyd Will/HOU/ECT@ECT, Greg Wolfe/ENRON@enronXgate,
Max Yzaguirre/NA/Enron@ENRON, John Zufferli/CAL/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
I asked everyone for their A/A needs and received very little feedback.
Please respond promptly.
Thanks
John
| 3,421 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/445.
|
Re: its never gonna break ,
your guys are probably seeing this as well, but, 50 cents higher our customer
biz was 95/5 from buy side. now it's 50/50. can almost smell blood among
the producers. only problem is trade is sooooo short they cant see
straight. were the market still not so fundamentally overvalued right now
i'd be looking for a 25 cent move up. just can't see that happening at this
level though.
| 3,422 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/446.
|
Re: ,
only if you promise to post regular updates on the trucking market.
call chris gaskill to get the password.
From: Matthew Arnold/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/04/2001 10:22 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
sign me up for the gas message board
| 3,423 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/447.
|
RE: ,
will see you there (most probably)
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/04/2001 10:18 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE:
My floor looks good - now i just have to paint. Have fun in San Antonio.
Monday morning?
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Friday, May 04, 2001 9:38 AM
To: Ward, Kim S.
Subject: Re:
i like that feeling...as long as someone doesnt punch you in the gut. i'm
going to san antonio at lunch today to play soccer so i just took the day
off. catching up on 2 weeks of email. i know how to relax don't i
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/04/2001 09:34 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
Every single muscle in my stomach is sore.
| 3,424 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/448.
|
Re: Hi ,
Hey Adam:
sorry for the delay. just been very busy. congrats on joining enron. think
you made the right chioce. i would recommend structuring. it's a good way
to understand how enron works, how we look at and manage risk, and you get
close to the trading component. a friend of mine, ed mcmichael runs the gas
structuring group. try emiling him probably at [email protected]. keep in
touch,
john
"Bayer, Adam Ryan" <[email protected]> on 04/10/2001 03:06:34 PM
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: Hi
Hi John,
I hope your gas markets are moving nicely this week. Its
been a long time since we talked, but a lot has happened.
But the most important thing has been my decision to join
Enron. At this point, I am looking around for a rotation,
and I have received a lot of advice pointing me towards
Gas/Power Structuring and RAC rotations. I am wondering if
you know some people in these areas who might be looking
for analysts. I have heard that traders work closely with
the structured finance and RAC guys, true? If you have
time please let me know if you know of anything.
Thanks,
Adam Bayer
| 3,425 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/449.
|
Re: <<Concur Expense Document>> - Quigley050401 ,
this is my idea of vacation...
| 3,426 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/45.
|
,
Hello:
I am not able to pull up the link for the short term outlook for natural
gas. Can you please make sure the link is updates.
Thanks,
John
| 3,427 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/450.
|
Re: Fimat (Soc Gen Line) ,
yes i will
From: Sarah Wesner/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/04/2001 09:50 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc: Joseph Deffner/ENRON@enronXgate
Subject: Fimat (Soc Gen Line)
John - I got a call from Warren Tashnek today. He is concerned about the
usage of the Fimat line because the trading volume is not covering its
costs. He wanted to know how to increase business with Enron. I referred
him to you. As you know, he is so nice and not trying to start a fight with
us but needs more trades to justify the cost of the line. Will you please
address this with him?
Thanks, Sarah
| 3,428 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/453.
|
Re: ,
i like that feeling...as long as someone doesnt punch you in the gut. i'm
going to san antonio at lunch today to play soccer so i just took the day
off. catching up on 2 weeks of email. i know how to relax don't i
From: Kim Ward/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/04/2001 09:34 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
Every single muscle in my stomach is sore.
| 3,431 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/454.
|
Re: ,
absolutely...though i'm not sure how you do it. call chris gaskill and he
should be abl to help.
From: Kevin McGowan/ENRON@enronXgate on 05/04/2001 09:33 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
John,
Could I get access to the gas message board?
KJM
| 3,432 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/455.
|
,
Jeff:
To explain the P&L of -349,000 :
We executed the trade when you gave the order (the delta anyway), first thing
in the morning. The market rallied 8 cents from the morning, with the back
rallying about 2.5 cents. On 904 PV contracts, curve shift was -226,000.
The balance, $123,000, is almost exactly $.01 bid/mid, which I think is
pretty fair considering the tenor of the deal and that it included price and
vol. Cal 3 straddles, for instance, are $1.39 / $1.45.
Looking out for you bubbeh:
John
| 3,433 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/456.
|
Re: No Cracks ,
almost forgot about you....
will take care of . we'll keep you guys together close to the traders.
From: Mike A Roberts 05/01/2001 09:48 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: No Cracks
Johnny,
Please don't let my group fall through the cracks!
We'd like to be as close to your desk in the new building as possible (8
seats)
unless you think we should focus on one of the geographical desks
- Mike
| 3,434 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/457.
|
Re: Please respond ,
no
[email protected] on 05/01/2001 11:44:40 AM
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: Please respond
Carr is hosting an enymex presentation at our office in New York this
Monday, May 7th from 2-4 PM. We are double checking our head count to make
sure that we will be ready for the people attending the presentation.
If you would, please reply to this email with a yes or a no to indicate
your intentions of attending this enymex presentation.
Thank you.
Carr Futures
150 S. Wacker Dr., Suite 1500
Chicago, IL 60606 USA
Tel: 312-368-6149
Fax: 312-368-2281
[email protected]
http://www.carrfut.com
| 3,435 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/459.
|
,
Stranger:
Any interest in getting a drink or dinner Tuesday? havent seen you in
forever.
| 3,437 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/46.
|
,
Stephanie:
Please set up Mike Maggi for trding on Intercontinental Exch.
Thanks,
John
| 3,438 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/460.
|
RE: Your note ,
my email as far as i know is [email protected]. not on msn though.
i made space for your 8 people as well as ferries, roberts, and the other
person (??) you requested. Come down tomorrow and i'll show you the layout
again.
john
From: Jean Mrha/ENRON@enronXgate on 04/30/2001 08:34 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: RE: Your note
Arnold,
I am trying to talk via MSN messenger service and it will not accept
[email protected] or any other reasonable email path. What is your official
email path? I am assuming that you are using Outlook. I am here at work
trying to close a deal.
I will forward your message to Grass, but I want to visually see the layout
of the floor. I will end up having spots on five and six. Also, Nelson
Ferries' and Linda Roberts' location are very important to the
Wellhead/Ecommerce effort. And yes, John will need room to grow.
What did you think of the article?
Mrha
-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 8:23 PM
To: Mrha, Jean
Subject:
Jean:
I think the location i talked about before is actually better for you. The
area towards the edge of the building borders the northeast gas group,
long-term originators, and mid-market orig group. not exactly who you need
to be around. the location in the center is much closer to the east gulf
group, specifically sandra, and the same distance to the central and texas
trading groups. most importantly, it provides room for both your group and
the trading group to expand. call me if you want to talk further....
thanks for the article.
john
| 3,439 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/462.
|
,
Jean:
I think the location i talked about before is actually better for you. The
area towards the edge of the building borders the northeast gas group,
long-term originators, and mid-market orig group. not exactly who you need
to be around. the location in the center is much closer to the east gulf
group, specifically sandra, and the same distance to the central and texas
trading groups. most importantly, it provides room for both your group and
the trading group to expand. call me if you want to talk further....
thanks for the article.
john
| 3,441 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/463.
|
Re: March 2001/1Q 2001 Reporting Package ,
would like to meet to review to make sure i understand. may only take a
couple minutes. are you free at 330 on tuesday?
From: Edie Leschber/ENRON@enronXgate on 04/30/2001 10:28 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: March 2001/1Q 2001 Reporting Package
John,
I have the reporting package for March 2001 and 1Q 2001 for the Financial
Team for you.
Would you like to meet to review or would you prefer that I just deliver it
to you for your review?
Thank you,
Edie Leschber
X30669
| 3,442 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/466.
|
,
can you get me the number of our contact at the Delano. I have a personal
favor to ask them.
john
| 3,445 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/467.
|
,
pookie:
check this out:
www.sailmainecoast.com/index.html
| 3,446 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/468.
|
,
212 836 5030
| 3,447 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/469.
|
,
kimberly:
any interest in accompanying me to maggi's bd party sat nite?
| 3,448 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/47.
|
Re: ,
welcome to the world of electronic market making. .. it's fun ,huh?
"Smith, Foster" <[email protected]> on 11/08/2000 08:44:36 AM
To: "'[email protected]'" <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject:
Hey dickhead....quit arbing me on ice. When are we going to another
Rocket's game so I can when my fucking money back?
******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from El Paso
Energy Corporation are confidential and intended solely
for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are
addressed. If you have received this email in error
please notify the sender.
******************************************************************
| 3,449 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/470.
|
Re: PIRA ,
sure
From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 04/26/2001 10:37 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: PIRA
They are coming in Sunday night obviously ( the 13th of May)
We may do a dinner around 8pm -- if this is a yes --are you in you? wanna
pick their brains with a one on one?
Jen Fraser
Enron Global Markets Fundamentals
713-853-4759
| 3,450 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/471.
|
RE: Receipt of Hedge Fund Information ,
may be looking to sell some naked calls soon. can you check that i would be
approved to sell 200 of either 65 or 70's expiring somewhere between jul-jan.
also, if i sell naked calls with a tenor of more than one year that expire
worthless, do the gains get counted as LT cap gains?
| 3,451 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/472.
|
Re: LNG ,
sure, how about thursday at 3:30? would like to get update on ENE's lng
projects as well.
Jonathan Whitehead @ ENRON 04/24/2001 07:28 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: LNG
John, I have just arrived in Houston, and will be running the LNG Trading &
Shipping business. I worked for Louise for many years, and took over the
European Gas business from her when she came over here a few years ago. I'd
like to meet you and discuss a few issues. Do you have any time over the next
few days?
Thanks,
Jonathan
| 3,452 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/473.
|
Re: please fill in--i lost the scrap of paper ,
my numbers from mar 15. would raise jun-augy by 10 cents because of the
supportive weather we had from mar 15-apr 15
From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 04/19/2001 01:17 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: please fill in--i lost the scrap of paper
arnold
May-01 455
Jun-01 395
Jul-01 370
Aug-01 350
Sep-01 350
Oct-01 360
Nov-01 360
Dec-01 325
Jan-02 280
Jen Fraser
Enron Global Markets Fundamentals
713-853-4759
| 3,453 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/474.
|
Re: PIRA Global Oil and Natural Outlooks- Save these dates. ,
are we first? if not, when does the road show start and/or when does the
basic theme get distributed around the industry?
From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 04/20/2001 09:10 AM
To: Cathy Phillips/HOU/ECT@ECT, Mark Frevert/ENRON@enronXgate, Mike
McConnell/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeffrey A Shankman/ENRON@enronXgate, Doug
Arnell/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT, Alan Aronowitz/HOU/ECT@ECT,
Pierre Aury/LON/ECT@ECT, Sally Beck/HOU/ECT@ECT, Rick
Bergsieker/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT, Stephen H
Douglas/ENRON@enronXgate, Shanna Funkhouser/ENRON@enronXgate, Eric
Gonzales/LON/ECT@ECT, Gary Hickerson/HOU/ECT@ECT, Vince J
Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT, Larry Lawyer/ENRON@enronXgate, Chris
Mahoney/LON/ECT@ECT, George Mcclellan/ENRON@enronXgate, Thomas
Myers/ENRON@enronXgate, John L Nowlan/HOU/ECT@ECT, Beth
Perlman/ENRON@enronXgate, Brent A Price/ENRON@enronXgate, Daniel
Reck/ENRON@enronXgate, Cindy Skinner/ENRON@enronXgate, Stuart
Staley/LON/ECT@ECT, Mark Tawney/ENRON@enronXgate, Scott
Tholan/ENRON@enronXgate, Lisa Yoho/NA/Enron@Enron, Neil
Davies/ENRON@enronXgate, Per Sekse/NY/ECT@ECT, Stephen H
Douglas/ENRON@enronXgate, Scott Vonderheide/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Jonathan
Whitehead/AP/Enron@Enron, Michael K Patrick/ENRON@enronXgate, Chris
Gaskill/ENRON@enronXgate, John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc: Nicki Daw/ENRON@enronXgate, Jennifer Burns/ENRON@enronXgate, DeMonica
Lipscomb/ENRON@enronXgate, Yvonne Francois/ENRON@enronXgate, Angie
Collins/ENRON@enronXgate, Donna Baker/ENRON@enronXgate, Helen Marie
Taylor/HOU/ECT@ECT, Chantelle Villanueva/ENRON@enronXgate, Betty J
Coneway/ENRON@enronXgate, Patti Thompson/HOU/ECT@ECT, Cherylene
Westbrook/ENRON@enronXgate, Candace Parker/LON/ECT@ECT, Sharon
Purswell/ENRON@enronXgate, Gloria Solis/ENRON@enronXgate, Brenda J
Johnston/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT, Susan McCarthy/LON/ECT@ECT,
Paula Forsyth/ENRON@enronXgate, Shirley Crenshaw/HOU/ECT@ECT, Kathleen D
Hardeman/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT, Stuart
Cichosz/ENRON@enronXgate, Judy Zoch/NA/Enron@ENRON, Sunita
Katyal/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT, Cherry Mont/NY/ECT@ECT, Lydia
Reeves/HOU/ECT@ECT, Kristy Armstrong/ENRON@enronXgate, Nita
Garcia/NA/Enron@Enron, Christina Brandli/ENRON@enronXgate, Yolanda
Martinez/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Michele Beffer/ENRON@enronXgate, Shimira
Jackson/ENRON@enronXgate
Subject: PIRA Global Oil and Natural Outlooks- Save these dates.
PIRA is coming in May to do their semi-annual energy outlook.
Greg Shuttlesworth- North American Natural Gas --- May 14th 3-5 pm (30 C1)
? New Production Outlook
? Price Direction
? Demand Fundamentals
Dr. Gary Ross - World Oil Outlook --- May 16th 7-8:30 am --32C2
? OIl/ Demand/ supply Outlook
? Regional balances
? OPEC Rhetoric
Jen Fraser
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arnold-j/_sent_mail/475.
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Re: Understanding the natural view ,
1. don't know. some industrial shutdown is not gas price dependent. some
will not come back at the same prices it went off. residential conservation
i think is underestimated and has a severe lag effect that will not come back
as prices fall. as far as switching i dont think #2 is the floor some people
think it is. maybe #6 is the floor.
2. you know my outlook for xh, with slightly above normal weather jan goes
out at 2.75 and that is not constrained by a #6 floor. next jv, too far away
to really run the numbers but think natty reestablishes itself as a
$2.50-3.50 commodity.
3. the obvious
4. yes. believe if we end at 2.6 in the ground, the current nymex forward
curve may be fairly priced. my belief is that at the current prices we will
end up with much more than 2.6 and that $5 is not value if we have 2.8 in the
ground and gaining y on y. circular argument that leads to my belief that
prices must fall.
5. not necessarily. will loss of demand with normal weather cancel the fact
that there will be much less demand destruction. probably.
From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 04/22/2001 05:54 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Understanding the natural view
1- The above spreadsheet looks at HO-NG seasonally. It gives perspective on
'normal relationships'.
Things I need to clarify about your ng view
1- As gas plummets are you assuming that it regains all demand (industrial
shutdowns and fuel switchers)?
2-What is your outlook for Nov-Mar 01 and Ap-oct 02
3- How does your view change with a normal, cold or warm winter ?
4- Is your view predicated on getting to 2.6 is easy and that world did not
end this past winter a storage level of 2.6?
5- Do you believe that we will need to price some demand out again this
winter?
Thanks
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