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arnold-j/_sent_mail/265.
|
Re: ,
Thanks...anxiously awaiting
Andy Zipper@ENRON
08/16/2000 09:28 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re:
Yeah yeah I know....
The roll out for phase II EOL is (for now) 8/28/00. Options are qeued next
after that. Unfortu ately I wish I could give you a hard date, but it is out
of my hands and in Jay Webb's shop. I am pushing as hard as I can but Louise
has set phase II as the priority. I know this sounds like a lame excuse, but
I don't know what else to say. The application is built, it just needs to be
tested. Please don't get too frustrated and keep the pressure up on us.
Andy
| 3,222 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/266.
|
,
Andy:
Just checking on the options. Any idea on rollout date?
John
| 3,223 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/267.
|
,
Congrats on your new job..
| 3,224 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/268.
|
Re: daily charts 8/10 ,
Scott:
Congrats on some great tech analysis of late. You've called it near
perfectly over the past month.
John
[email protected] on 08/10/2000 07:04:53 AM
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: daily charts 8/10
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing
contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy any financial instruments discussed herein. Any
opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they
may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by
on behalf of Carr Futures or its officers, directors, employees or
affiliates. , 2000 Carr Futures
The charts are now in the most recent version of Adobe Acrobat 4.0 and they
should print clearly from Adobe Acrobat Reader 3.0 or higher. Adobe Acrobat
Reader 4.0 may be downloaded for FREE from www.adobe.com.
(See attached file: ngas.pdf)(See attached file: crude.pdf)
- ngas.pdf
- crude.pdf
| 3,225 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/27.
|
Re: not good for the under ,
good seats sill available
Matthew Arnold
11/27/2000 12:33:48 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: not good for the under
guess who is a sponsor of the galleryfurniture.com bowl? tickets available
in the energizer for $8.
| 3,227 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/270.
|
Re: Carr Futures Presentation ,
I will not be able attend but Errol will be there in my place.
Thanks,
John
PAMELA
SONNIER
08/09/2000 10:27 AM
To: David P Dupre/HOU/ECT@ECT, Larry Joe Hunter/HOU/ECT@ECT, Dutch
Quigley/HOU/ECT@ECT, Errol McLaughlin/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Dart
Arnaez/HOU/ECT@ECT, DeMarco Carter/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Aneela
Charania/HOU/ECT@ECT, Theresa T Brogan/HOU/ECT@ECT, Shifali
Sharma/NA/Enron@Enron, Bob Bowen/HOU/ECT@ECT, John Weakly/Corp/Enron@ENRON,
Curtis Smith/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeremy Wong/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jennifer K
Longoria/HOU/ECT@ECT, Patricia Bloom/HOU/ECT@ECT, Bob Klein/HOU/ECT@ECT,
Gerri Gosnell/HOU/ECT@ECT, Spencer Vosko/HOU/ECT@ECT, John
Wilson/NA/Enron@ENRON, John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc: Jefferson D Sorenson/HOU/ECT@ECT, Maria Sandoval/HOU/ECT@ECT
Subject: Carr Futures Presentation
Your attendance is requested for this Carr presentation Friday, August 11th
in 32C2 at 11:30a.
Jeff Koehler, Senior VP of Global Client Services along with Scott Oblander,
Assistant VP, Energy Division and Hamilton Fonseca, VP, Customer Support
will be in our office on Friday.
These gentlemen will be here to demonstrate Carr's electronic clearing
capabilities.
This presentation is for Enron's mid/back office and IT personnel that are
involved in exchange traded futures and options. The presentation is real
time via the internet and takes approximately 1 1/2 to 2 hours depending on
the number of questions that are raised.
Lunch will be served and we look forward to seeing each of you present. If
for any reason you are unable to attend please inform me that I might order
lunch accordingly.
Thank You.
Pamela Sonnier
(x3 7531)
| 3,228 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/271.
|
Re: ,
thx
Liz M Taylor
08/09/2000 08:54 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re:
Hi Johnny,
I was out yesterday and did not receive your message until now. However, I
did not have any tickets. I'll make it up to you. Let me know when you
would like to attend a game.
Liz
John Arnold
08/08/2000 01:45 PM
To: Liz M Taylor/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
Hey:
Do you have any extras for tonight's game?
John
PS. How's you bowl
| 3,229 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/272.
|
Re: Forward-forward Vol Implementation Plan ,
Hello,
Just checking to see if things are progressing as scheduled.
Thanks,
John
From: Vladimir Gorny 07/31/2000 06:35 PM
To: John J Lavorato/Corp/Enron@Enron, Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT, John
Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT, Debbie R Brackett/HOU/ECT@ECT, Frank
Hayden/Corp/Enron@Enron, Stephen Stock/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Forward-forward Vol Implementation Plan
Plan of action for implementation of the VaR methodology change related to
forward-forward volatilities:
1. Finalize the methodology proposed (Research/Market Risk) - Done
2. Testing of the new methodology for the Natural Gas Desk in Excel (Market
Risk) - Done
3. Get approval for the methodology change from Rick Buy (see draft of the
memo attached) - John Lavorato and John Sherriff - by 8/7/00
- John Lavorato, any comments on the memo?
- Would you like to run this by John Sherriff or should I do it?
4. Develop and implement the new methodology in a stage environment
(Research/IT) - by 8/14/00
5. Test the new methodology (Market Risk, Traders) - by 8/27/00
6. Migrate into production (Research/IT) - 8/28/00
Please let me know if this is reasonable and meets everyone's expectations.
Vlady.
| 3,230 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/274.
|
Re: BNP PARIBAS Weekly AGA Survey ,
67
[email protected] on 08/08/2000 09:32:47 AM
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: BNP PARIBAS Weekly AGA Survey
Good Morning,
Here are this week's stats:
AGA Last Year +45
5 yr AVG +67
Lifetime High +80 1996
Lifetime Low +45 1999
Gas in STGE 1920
5yr AVG 2132
+/- to 1999 -386
+/- to 5yr AVG -212
Please have your estimates in by Noon (11:00 CST) tomorrow. Thanks.
(Embedded image moved to file: pic24924.pcx)
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diffusion ou toute publication, totale ou partielle, est interdite, sauf
autorisation expresse.
L'internet ne permettant pas d'assurer l'integrite de ce message, BNP PARIBAS
(et ses filiales) decline(nt) toute responsabilite au titre de ce message,
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Any use not in accord with its purpose, any dissemination or disclosure,
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The internet can not guarantee the integrity of this message. BNP PARIBAS
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- pic24924.pcx
| 3,232 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/275.
|
,
Hey:
Do you have any extras for tonight's game?
John
PS. How's you bowl
| 3,233 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/277.
|
,
JP:
Hope things are going well.
I'm trying to get the email address of your new partner, Tracy.
If you have, can you forward?
Thx,
John
| 3,235 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/278.
|
Re: Houston Street ,
Although I would prefer to see the counterparty name for failed transactions,
it is not of great importance and I certainly understand a third party system
not supplying us with that info.
Andy Zipper@ENRON
07/31/2000 01:51 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Houston Street
John,
As you are probably aware we did a click through deal with Houston Street,
whereby EOL prices would be posted on their platform. The initial thought was
that this would be transparent to the trading desks; they wouldn't care
whether the trade came from Houston Street, True Quote or EOL (although we
could make the platform name available to you if you so desired.) This still
will be the case except for one problem: Houston Street does not want us to
reveal the counterparty name to the trader in the event of a failed
transaction. I don't know whether this is an issue for you or not, but I
would like to know. We will probably run into this issue with any platform we
deal with for obvious anonymity reasons. I would really appreciate your
thoughts/concerns.
-Andy
| 3,236 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/279.
|
Re: west africa ,
thx
Phil Clifford
08/02/2000 04:25 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: west africa
thought you might find this interesting. looks like heavy tropical wave
moving off the coast.
http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/AtlanticLoop/
| 3,237 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/28.
|
Re: Service Agreement ,
The agreement is fine. I'll mail it out.
"Mark Sagel" <[email protected]> on 11/27/2000 03:16:15 PM
To: "John Arnold" <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: Service Agreement
John:
?
Thanks again for the opportunity to provide my technical service.? Attached
is an agreement that covers our arrangement.? Let me know if you have any
questions.? If it's ok, please sign and fax back to me at (410)308-0441.? I
look forward to working with you.?
?
Mark Sagel
Psytech Analytics
(410)308-0245
- Agree-Enron.doc
| 3,238 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/281.
|
Re: Sydney Olympics & IDRC ,
Please take me off email list.
mailreply <[email protected]> on 08/03/2000 09:15:53 AM
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: Sydney Olympics & IDRC
Planning to attend the Olympics in Sydney, Australia?
Here is a networking opportunity for our international IDRC visitors to
experience some warm Aussie hospitality.
The Sydney Chapter would love to offer our international IDRC members an
opportunity to combine the Olympics with a real Aussie Bush Barbeque in one
of our National Parks close to Sydney.
The Chapter has set aside Thursday, 14 September 2000 for an IDRC
International "Wine & Wisdom" event in the form of a Bush BBQ. The time is
4:00 - 6:00 pm for a BBQ, a little informal information sharing, and some
warm Aussie hospitality.
Just let us know who you are, how we can contact you, your particular social
or business interest, and we will be in touch with more detail. It's then up
to you!
Contact John Fox, IDRC Australia Regional Director, tel (612) 9977 0732,
email: [email protected]
Regards,
Bruce Richards
Australia Regional Council Chair
John Fox
Australia Regional Director
Visit our website for news and information www.idrc.org
| 3,240 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/282.
|
,
The following is a summary of the trades EES did today:
# buys # sells
Sep 5 / day 5 / day
Oct 4 / day
Nov-Mar 3 / day 2 / day
Apr-Oct 1.5 / day 2.5 / day
Total contracts traded = 2045
Thought you should know...
John
| 3,241 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/283.
|
,
Hello:
There is one feature that has not been transferred to the new stack manager.
When I sort by both counterparty and product at the bottom of the screen, the
position summary does not sort by both product and counterparty, just by
product. It would be very useful if you can replace this.
Thanks,
John
| 3,242 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/284.
|
,
z/f 10/12
| 3,243 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/285.
|
,
Hey:
Do you have JP's email address?
John
| 3,244 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/29.
|
Re: ,
who were you trying to bet on??
John J Lavorato@ENRON
11/26/2000 08:55 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re:
That's cheap
| 3,249 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/290.
|
Re: Guest ,
That is fine...Just make sure you ensure the confidentiality of the floor is
not compromised. Do not let him see any EOL entry screens.
Thanks,
John
David P Dupre
08/02/2000 02:09 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Guest
I have a friend at Prudential Securities who is interested in visiting the
trading floors this week.
He is in my capacity (back office) at Pru.
Please let me know,
Thanks
David
3-3528
Steno: 275
| 3,250 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/294.
|
,
fyi
jan red jan 32/33 with sep @392
| 3,254 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/295.
|
,
Vlade:
I have not heard back from you. What is the schedule for changing the VAR
process?
Please reply,
John
| 3,255 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/296.
|
,
fyi:
Jan Red Jan trading 28.5 with Sep @ 381
| 3,256 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/297.
|
,
Hey:
What's the update on Larry May's VAR issues. Again, this is a priority as
we will lose Lavorato's VAR soon.
Thanks,
John
| 3,257 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/298.
|
Re: ALS Charity - It's Time to Collect ,
Liz:
Come by anytime...
Thanks,
John
Liz M Taylor
07/25/2000 05:22 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: ALS Charity - It's Time to Collect
John,
Thank you for sponsoring me for ALS (Lou Gehrig's disease). I need to turn
all funds in by Wednesday, July 26. Please make your check payable to
"MDA." (Cash is also accepted.) Call me when ready and I'll come collect or
send to EB2801e.
Many Thanks,
Liz Taylor x31935
EB2801e
John Arnold $100.00
| 3,258 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/3.
|
,
remember when you said there is a reason they call them bear spreads?
bring up a chart of f/g or g/h.
f/g is tighter now than anytime since march 99 when ff1 was worth 2.50
amazing
| 3,260 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/30.
|
Re: ,
Oak -11 or Atl +11 ????
Bet voided
John J Lavorato@ENRON
11/23/2000 09:42 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
250 per
New England +6
Over 37 1/2 NE/DET
Minn -7 1/2
Buff +3 1/2
Miami +5 1/2
Phil +6 1/2
Clev +16
Chic +7
Oak +11
Jack +3 1/2
Den -3
KC -2
Giants/Ariz over 38
Current 3730
| 3,261 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/301.
|
Re: Stress Testing ,
Frank:
One of the most likely scenarios for a VAR blowout would be a severe cold
front hitting the country in the middle to latter part of the winter. In
such a circumstance, cash may separate from prompt futures similar to how
Midwest power traded $5000+ on specific days last year while prompt futures
were $200. The correlation between prompt and cash is normally very strong,
and is indicated by the small VAR associated with a spread position
currently. But in the winter that may change.
Another thing to keep in mind while developing this scenario is the
assymetric risk presented by having a spread position on. Assuming we enter
the winter with normal to below normal storage levels, a position of long
cash, short prompt futures has a long tail only on the positive p&l side.
While such a trade in an efficient market has expected payout of 0, the
payout probabilities may look like the following:
20% $ -.05
40% $ -.02
20% $ 0
19% $ .03
1% $ 1
Enron North America Corp.
From: Frank Hayden @ ENRON 07/20/2000 02:12 PM
To: Fletcher J Sturm/HOU/ECT@ECT, John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Stress Testing
RAC is working on developing some "canned" stress tests regarding VaR. For
example, one test could be called "hurricane", were the prompt month is
"stressed" on both price and vols, holding all other inputs constant.
Anyway, I would like to know of any likely/realistic stress scenarios you can
think of....
Let me know,
Frank
| 3,263 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/302.
|
Re: VaR Methodology Change ,
Vlady:
The plan looks good. Can you please attach a time schedule to the different
steps and send it back.
Thanks,
John
From: Vladimir Gorny 07/17/2000 07:30 PM
To: John J Lavorato/Corp/Enron@Enron, Ted Murphy/HOU/ECT@ECT, Vince J
Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT, John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: VaR Methodology Change
Gentlemen,
Below is a plan of action for moving along with the VaR methodology change
related to forward-forward volatility:
1. Finalize the methodology proposed (Research/Market Risk)
- determine the time period used to calculated forward-forward vols vs.
correlations (20 days vs. 60 days)
- stabilize the calculation for curves and time periods where the curve does
not change based on historical prices, implying volatility of 0%
2. Get approval for the methodology change from Rick Buy (see draft of the
memo attached) - John Lavorato and John Sherriff
3. Develop and implement the new methodology in a stage environment
(Research/IT)
4. Test the new methodology (Market Risk, Traders)
5. Migrate into production (Research/IT)
Please let me know if this is reasonable and meets everyone's expectations.
Vlady.
| 3,264 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/303.
|
Re: FALL RECRUITING TEAM LISTINGS ,
VP
ENA
Nat Gas Trading
3-3230
Debbie Flores
07/18/2000 09:01 AM
To: James Armstrong/HOU/ECT@ECT, John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: FALL RECRUITING TEAM LISTINGS
I am needing to update the following information for Beth Miertschin's Fall
Recruiting team listings.
Please forward me the following:
Title
Company
Business Unit/Function
Extension
Location
Your response is greatly appreciated.
Debbie Flores
Recruiting Coordinator
Analyst Program
| 3,265 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/304.
|
Re: Give Up Agreements: Banc One ,
Mary:
These agreements are acceptable. Please sign the give up agreements with
Banc One.
John
MARY COOK
07/19/2000 02:30 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT, Sarah Wesner/Corp/Enron@Enron
cc:
Subject: Give Up Agreements: Banc One
I have received the executed counterparts of the Give Up Agreements from Banc
One for our signature contemplating several executing brokers. It is my
understanding that trades were recently pulled from Banc One and therefore,
these agreements may not now be warranted. John, please advise me regarding
whether you will want to sign these agreements with Banc One or not. Thank
you. Mary Cook ENA Legal
| 3,266 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/305.
|
,
Jeff:
In regards to the antitrust training, can you please schedule that at least
one of the sessions starts at 3:00 or later to ensure participation by all.
Thanks,
John
| 3,267 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/306.
|
Re: New Counterparty Transaction ,
Russell:
My risk group frequently uses the New Counterparty label for internal
counterparties that do not have a trading book. This transaction was a hedge
for the acquisition of the paper plant we announced recently. I'm not sure
who the internal group is that did the transaction. Dutch Quigley should be
able to help.
John.
From: Russell Diamond
07/19/2000 05:22 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: New Counterparty Transaction
John
A trade came across our morning report listed as a 'New Counterparty'. It
was about 17BCF Swap from Sep "00 - Aug '07. Can you give me some details
on the counterparty.
Thank you,
Russell
Credit
| 3,268 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/307.
|
Re: ,
Thanks.
Andy Zipper@ENRON
07/19/2000 08:27 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re:
By the version of EOL do you mean the new version of stack manager ? If you
do, we should have finished testing by today. That means we will roll out
today or tomorrow, but Louise wants a more developed roll out plan, so that
might slow things down a bit. Not to make excuses, but we have had some
serious technical problems with the new release and have had to redesign
whole parts of the back end of the system. The problem is around how many
things can be linked to a single product and stack manager performance,
obviously a serious issue. It has taken us, obviously, a lot longer than we
thought to fix it. I think there are still some minor issues that we should
discuss, but they should not get in the way of release.
If you mean by new version, the phase II website version with sexy content,
we are scheduled (cum grano salis) to roll that out in mid august.
any questions please feel free to call.
-andy
| 3,269 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/308.
|
,
Andy:
Is the new version of EOL coming out soon. I'm waiting to put new products
on until it comes...
John
| 3,270 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/309.
|
Re: "Strike Out" ALS ,
I think you're cheating trying to get a fixed amount.... I'll give $1 per
pin.
Good luck,
John
Liz M Taylor
07/17/2000 03:57 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re: "Strike Out" ALS
John,
Please a flat amount. Don't hold me to pins. Everyone is giving a flat
amount. I'm NOT a bowler.
Liz
John Arnold
07/17/2000 03:56 PM
To: Liz M Taylor/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re: "Strike Out" ALS
Is it per game or point or what?
Liz M Taylor
07/17/2000 02:33 PM
To: John J Lavorato/Corp/Enron@Enron, Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT, Kevin M
Presto/HOU/ECT@ECT, Scott Neal/HOU/ECT@ECT, Gary Hickerson/HOU/ECT@ECT, John
Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT, Stephen R Horn/HOU/ECT@ECT, Wes Colwell/HOU/ECT@ECT, Mark
E Haedicke/HOU/ECT@ECT, Paul Racicot/Enron Communications@Enron
Communications, Jean Mrha/NA/Enron@Enron
cc:
Subject: "Strike Out" ALS
Enron/MDA
Beach Bowl 2000
To Benefit ALS Research
I'm bowling to help "strike out" ALS (Lou Gehrig's disease). If you have not
sponsored someone else, I would very much like for you to sponsor me. The
event takes place on July 29. I will need all donations by July 26.
Any donation is greatly appreciated and matched by Enron.
Many Thanks,
Liz
| 3,271 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/31.
|
,
adams 30 631
| 3,272 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/310.
|
Re: "Strike Out" ALS ,
Is it per game or point or what?
Liz M Taylor
07/17/2000 02:33 PM
To: John J Lavorato/Corp/Enron@Enron, Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT, Kevin M
Presto/HOU/ECT@ECT, Scott Neal/HOU/ECT@ECT, Gary Hickerson/HOU/ECT@ECT, John
Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT, Stephen R Horn/HOU/ECT@ECT, Wes Colwell/HOU/ECT@ECT, Mark
E Haedicke/HOU/ECT@ECT, Paul Racicot/Enron Communications@Enron
Communications, Jean Mrha/NA/Enron@Enron
cc:
Subject: "Strike Out" ALS
Enron/MDA
Beach Bowl 2000
To Benefit ALS Research
I'm bowling to help "strike out" ALS (Lou Gehrig's disease). If you have not
sponsored someone else, I would very much like for you to sponsor me. The
event takes place on July 29. I will need all donations by July 26.
Any donation is greatly appreciated and matched by Enron.
Many Thanks,
Liz
| 3,273 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/311.
|
,
Jim:
The list I gave you is a list of brokers that can clear through you, NOT
brokers that you clear exclusively. You do not clear any of my brokers
exclusively. All trades that clear through you will be done on discretionary
trade-by trade basis. You MUST have your floor personnel reverse everything
they they told my brokers this morning.
I am not happy.
John
| 3,274 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/312.
|
,
Jim:
The following are the authorized floor brokers to accept trades from:
Man
Paribas
SDI
Refco
Carr
the old Fimat group (don't know what their name is now)
Flatt Futures
ABN
Thanks,
John
| 3,275 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/313.
|
,
Frank:
The $5,000,000 extra VAR disappears in about a week. There MUST be a
band-aid to the term VAR curve before this expires. Again, the back of the
board is realizing 35-60% vol and it's being credited with 15% vol.
Thanks,
John
| 3,276 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/314.
|
,
Hello:
A recent posting on the Enron bulletin board indicated that you are looking
for academic tutors. I may be available to help at nights in math. Can you
please respond with details about the program, how old the kids are, the
commitment required, etc.
Thanks,
John Arnold
| 3,277 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/315.
|
Re: Market Opinion about AGA's ,
Interesting observation...but I'm not sure I agree. I think consensus
opinion is that anything under 2.7 TCF is very dangerous entering the
winter. A month ago, analysts were predicting we would end the injection
season with around 2.6 - 2.7 in the ground. With the most recent AGA, those
projections seem to be closer to 2.7. With supply of gas very inelastic to
price in the short and medium term, you must look at the demand side of the
equation. The market is trying to price out the right amount of demand
(mostly through lost industrial load and fuel switching) such that supplies
will be stored rather than burned. Each AGA number is another data point as
to whether nat gas is high enough to price out enough demand to reach a
comfortable level in storage entering the winter. A low AGA number
indicates we haven't priced out enough demand and the market must go up.
Certainly, the 97 throws a curve in the bull argument, but the number may be
a function of very mild weather, a four day holiday weekend, and reporting
noise rather than indicative of a structural shift in the supply/demand
equilibrium. We'll know a lot more as the next two weeks' numbers come out.
If we get two low injections, watch out.
Enron North America Corp.
From: Frank Hayden @ ENRON 07/12/2000 04:39 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Market Opinion about AGA's
John,
I think the AGA's are not as important to bulls as to bears. In the
beginning of the season, AGA's were very important in framing the bull
case. The current expectation is that we will go into the winter under
stored. I don't believe any additional AGA news can significantly change
that expectation.
However, I believe Bears, as evidenced today, will feed more heavily off of
bearish AGA news, than bulls will off bullish AGA news.
At this juncture, I believe that the most potent bullish news has to come
from the physical market and weather.
I hope you don't mind me expressing my view point on this issue.
Thanks,
Frank
| 3,278 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/316.
|
,
Frank:
Just following up on two topics.
One: Larry May's book continues to run at a VAR of 2,500,00 despite the fact
his P&L is never close to that. Can you check that his exotics book
positions are being picked up in his VAR calcs.
Second: Have you looked into applying a band-aid to the understating longer
term Vol problem until we change formulas?
John
| 3,279 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/318.
|
Re: El Paso Energy Corporation Reports Record Second Quarter ,
Good job....I've got 10% of my portfolio in CGP. Keep up the good work.
"Cooper, Sean" <[email protected]> on 07/11/2000 08:03:41 PM
To:
cc:
Subject: El Paso Energy Corporation Reports Record Second Quarter Earnings
Per Share
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/000711/tx_el_paso_2.html
Tuesday July 11, 5:42 pm Eastern Time
Company Press Release
SOURCE: El Paso Energy Corporation
El Paso Energy Corporation Reports Record Second Quarter Earnings Per Share
HOUSTON, July 11 /PRNewswire/ -- El Paso Energy Corporation (NYSE: EPG
<http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=epg&d=t> - news </n/e/epg.html>) today
announced second quarter 2000 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.69,
an increase of 73 percent over second quarter 1999 adjusted diluted earnings
per share of $0.40. The second quarter 2000 results exclude $0.13 per share
of one-time merger-related items. Diluted average common shares outstanding
for the second quarter 2000 totaled 242 million. Consolidated adjusted
earnings before interest expense and income taxes (EBIT) for the second
quarter increased by 55 percent to $408 million, compared with $263 million
in the year-ago period.
EBIT from the company's non-regulated businesses more than tripled in the
quarter to $246 million, and represented 60 percent of consolidated EBIT.
``Outstanding growth in Merchant Energy and continued strong performance in
our other non-regulated segments produced these record results,'' said
William A. Wise, president and chief executive officer of El Paso Energy
Corporation. ``Reflecting our long-standing strategy of building a portfolio
of flexible gas and power assets, Merchant Energy's earnings continued to
accelerate in the second quarter.''
For the first six months of 2000, adjusted diluted earnings per share
increased 84 percent to $1.40 per share, compared with $0.76 for the first
six months of 1999. Consolidated EBIT for the six months, excluding
non-recurring items, increased 55 percent to $798 million compared with $515
million in the year-ago period.
Second Quarter Business Segment Results
The Merchant Energy segment reported record EBIT of $152 million in the
second quarter 2000, compared with $6 million in the same period last year
and $50 million in the first quarter 2000. The physical and financial gas
and power portfolio developed over the past several years is creating
significant value in the current volatile energy environment. Enhanced
trading opportunities around our asset positions, continued strong wholesale
customer business, and management fees from Project Electron (the company's
off-balance sheet vehicle for power generation investments) all contributed
to the record second-quarter performance.
The Production segment reported a 30-percent increase in second quarter EBIT
to $52 million compared with $40 million a year ago, reflecting higher
realized gas and oil prices and lower operating costs following the
reorganization of its business in 1999. Weighted average realized prices for
the quarter were $2.26 per million cubic feet (MMcf) of natural gas and
$19.21 per barrel of oil, up 12 percent and 29 percent, respectively, from
the year-ago levels. Average natural gas production totaled 512 MMcf per day
and oil production averaged 14,275 barrels per day.
The Field Services segment reported second quarter EBIT of $30 million,
nearly double an adjusted $16 million in 1999. The increase was due
primarily to higher realized gathering and processing margins, together with
the acquisition of an interest in the Indian Basin processing plant in March
2000. Second quarter gathering and treating volumes averaged 4.1 trillion
Btu per day (TBtu/d), while processing volumes averaged 1.1 TBtu/d.
Coming out of one of the warmest winters on record, the Natural Gas
Transmission segment reported second quarter EBIT of $190 million compared
with an adjusted $187 million a year ago, reflecting the realization of cost
savings from the Sonat merger. Overall system throughput averaged 11.3
TBtu/d. During the quarter, Southern Natural Gas received Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission approval of its comprehensive rate case settlement
filed in March.
The International segment reported second quarter EBIT of $12 million
compared with $16 million in 1999. Higher equity income from projects in
Brazil and Argentina largely offset lower equity earnings from the company's
investment in the Philippines.
Telecom Update
``We have made substantial progress in the development of our
telecommunications business, El Paso Global Networks,'' said William A.
Wise. ``Reflecting our market-centric approach to developing new businesses,
we have named Greg G. Jenkins, the current president of El Paso Merchant
Energy, to head our telecommunications business. Our expertise in building
businesses in rapidly commoditizing markets, as demonstrated by our Merchant
Energy success, provides us with a key competitive entry point in the
telecommunications marketplace.''
Quarterly Dividend
The Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.206 per share on
the company's outstanding common stock. The dividend will be payable October
2, 2000 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on September
1, 2000. There were 237,786,853 outstanding shares of common stock entitled
to receive dividends as of June 30, 2000.
With over $19 billion in assets, El Paso Energy Corporation provides
comprehensive energy solutions through its strategic business units:
Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company, El Paso Natural Gas Company, Southern
Natural Gas Company, El Paso Merchant Energy Company, El Paso Energy
International Company, El Paso Field Services Company, and El Paso
Production Company. The company owns North America's largest natural gas
pipeline system, both in terms of throughput and miles of pipeline, and has
operations in natural gas transmission, merchant energy services, power
generation, international project development, gas gathering and processing,
and gas and oil production. On May 5, the stockholders of both El Paso
Energy and The Coastal Corporation overwhelmingly voted in favor of merging
the two organizations. The combined company will have assets of $35 billion
and be one of the world's leading integrated energy companies. The merger is
expected to close in the fourth quarter of this year, concurrent with the
completion of regulatory reviews. Visit El Paso Energy's web site at
www.epenergy.com <http://www.epenergy.com>.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This release includes forward-looking statements and projections, made in
reliance on the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. The company has made every reasonable effort to ensure
that the information and assumptions on which these statements and
projections are based are current, reasonable, and complete. However, a
variety of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the
projections, anticipated results or other expectations expressed in this
release. While the company makes these statements and projections in good
faith, neither the company nor its management can guarantee that the
anticipated future results will be achieved. Reference should be made to the
company's (and its affiliates') Securities and Exchange Commission filings
for additional important factors that may affect actual results.
EL PASO ENERGY CORPORATION
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF INCOME
(In Millions, Except per Share Amounts)
(UNAUDITED)
Second Quarter Ended Six Months Ended
June 30, June 30,
2000 1999 2000 1999
Operating revenues $4,227 $2,597 $7,333 $4,875
Operating expenses
Cost of gas and other products 3,451 1,949 5,829 3,590
Operation and maintenance 226 223 436 469
Merger related costs
and asset impairment charges 46 131 46 135
Ceiling test charges --- --- --- 352
Depreciation, depletion,
and amortization 148 141 293 289
Taxes, other than income taxes 36 36 77 76
3,907 2,480 6,681 4,911
Operating income (loss) 320 117 652 (36)
Equity earnings and other income 42 64 100 113
Earnings before interest expense,
income taxes, and other charges 362 181 752 77
Interest and debt expense 127 110 250 212
Minority interest 27 4 49 8
Income (loss) before income
taxes and other charges 208 67 453 (143)
Income tax expense (benefit) 68 23 142 (52)
Preferred stock dividends
of subsidiary 6 6 12 12
Income (loss) before extraordinary
items and cumulative effect
of accounting change 134 38 299 (103)
Extraordinary Items, net
of income taxes --- --- 89 ---
Cumulative effect of accounting
change, net of income taxes --- --- --- (13)
Net income (loss) $134 $38 $388 $(116)
Diluted earnings (loss)
per common share:
Adjusted diluted earnings
per common share (a) $0.69 $0.40 $1.40 $0.76
Extraordinary items --- --- 0.37 ---
Cumulative effect
of accounting change --- --- --- (0.06)
Merger related costs,
asset impairment, and other
non-recurring charges (0.13) (0.36) (0.13) (0.36)
Ceiling test charges --- --- --- (0.94)
Gain on sale of assets --- 0.05 --- 0.05
Resolution of regulatory issues --- 0.08 --- 0.08
Proforma diluted earnings (loss)
per common share $0.56 $0.17 $1.64
$(0.47)(b)
Reported diluted earnings (loss)
per common share $0.56 $0.17 $1.64
$(0.51)(b)
Basic average common shares
outstanding (000's) 229,539 226,877 229,064 226,471
Diluted average common shares
outstanding (000's) 241,710 237,955 240,117 237,161
(a) Adjusted diluted earnings per common share represents diluted
earnings
per share before the impact of certain non-recurring charges.
Second
quarter 2000 results exclude merger related charges of $(46) million
pretax, or $(31) million aftertax. Second quarter 1999 results
exclude merger related charges of $(131) million pretax, or
$(86) million aftertax, a gain on sale of assets of $19 million
pretax, or $12 million aftertax, and the resolution of regulatory
issues of $30 million pretax, or $20 million aftertax. Year-to-date
2000 results exclude the extraordinary gain on the sale of the East
Tennessee and Sea Robin systems of $89 million aftertax and merger
related charges of $(46) million pretax, or $(31) million aftertax.
Year-to-date 1999 results exclude the cumulative effect of an
accounting change of $(13) million aftertax, merger related charges
of
$(135) million pretax, or $(86) million aftertax, ceiling test
charges
of $(352) million pretax, or $(222) million aftertax, a gain on sale
of assets of $19 million pretax, or $12 million aftertax, and the
resolution of regulatory issues of $30 million pretax, or $19
million
aftertax.
(b) Proforma diluted loss per common share reflects reported diluted
earnings per share but assumes dilution. Reported diluted loss per
common share does not assume dilution because dilution would reduce
the amount of loss per share.
SOURCE: El Paso Energy Corporation
******************************************************************
This email and any files transmitted with it from El Paso
Energy Corporation are confidential and intended solely
for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are
addressed. If you have received this email in error
please notify the sender.
******************************************************************
| 3,281 |
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arnold-j/_sent_mail/319.
|
,
Per:
Can you give the Campbell fund read-only access to EOL. It may speed up the
process if they see they can trade pre-market.
John
| 3,282 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/32.
|
,
adams bot 1/2 6365
| 3,283 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/320.
|
,
I spoke to Vlady this afternoon regarding the alternative VAR methodologies.
I think changing to a Riskmetrics historical VAR system is more defendable
and objective, will provide more consistent results, and will create more
realistic results. I understand Vince has a similar opinion.
John.
| 3,284 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/321.
|
Re: ,
8 pm to 2 am
Gregory Carraway@ENRON
07/10/2000 04:32 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re:
What time do the festivities begin?
| 3,285 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/322.
|
Re: ,
Greg's always on vacation. You need to teach him some work habits. Next
Tuesday will work.
John
Liz M Taylor
07/10/2000 02:57 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re:
Hi John!
Greg and Mary are on vacation this week in Germany. May I put you on the
calendar for Tuesday of next week? Greg will travel to Philly on Monday.
Liz
John Arnold
07/10/2000 12:36 PM
To: Liz M Taylor/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
Hey,
Can Greg fit me in for about 30 minutes tomorrow afternoon?
--- Your secret admirer
| 3,286 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/323.
|
Re: ,
I'll send 2 invites up. What's your location?
Gregory Carraway@ENRON
07/10/2000 02:36 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re:
Thank you for the invitation. I would love to attend. I would like to invite
my wife, if that would be ok. Also, could you tell me where the Mercantile
bar is located? Thank you!!!
| 3,287 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/324.
|
Re: Forward-forward Vol ,
I'm free from 4:00-5:00 today
From: Vladimir Gorny 07/10/2000 02:14 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc: Tanya Tamarchenko/HOU/ECT@ECT, Frank Hayden/Corp/Enron@Enron
Subject: Forward-forward Vol
John,
Per your and Jeff's request, Research and Market Risk Groups have conducted
an extensive analysis of the forward-forward vol methodology used in the
Value-at-Risk calculation.
We analyzed and compared two methodologies:
the existing methodology - based on forward (implied) vols
an alternative methodology - based on historical vols
I would like to schedule about 30 minutes to walk you through the pros and
cons of each methodology and get your input.
Vlady.
| 3,288 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/325.
|
,
Hello,
Bill Perkins of Small Ventures USA is having a party this Saturday at the
Mercantile bar downtown. He has rented out the place, has a band, open
bar... usually pretty fun. He asked me to give both of you an invite in
appreciation of the work you've done for him. If you have interest, ccmail
me with whether you need one or two invites each.
John
| 3,289 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/326.
|
,
Hey,
Can Greg fit me in for about 30 minutes tomorrow afternoon?
--- Your secret admirer
| 3,290 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/328.
|
,
world cup 2006 -- Germany
BOO!
| 3,292 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/329.
|
,
Dinner tonite....birthday boy???
| 3,293 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/33.
|
Re: Not nice ,
Hey:
Hope you're enjoying the Holidays. I don't have your cell phone #, so call
me if you get bored this week. Sorry I didn't return your call Monday. I'll
be in the Big D. You can reach me on my cell or, better yet, at 972 934 3440.
Adios amigos:
John
| 3,294 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/330.
|
,
Please top level the following P&L out of my book because the market settled
limit down.
End of day position Amount settle was off in my estimation Total amount
V0 -1700 -.035 595,000
X0 6400 -.025 -1,6000,000
Z0 -1450 -.020 290,000
F1 4750 -.015 -712,500
---------------
-1,427,500
| 3,295 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/331.
|
Re: options and other stuff ,
How about 4:00 ??
Andy Zipper@ENRON
06/30/2000 05:02 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re: options and other stuff
Pick a time on Wednesday to come by and take a look at the Options manager.
Have a good 4th.
-andy
| 3,296 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/332.
|
Re: options and other stuff ,
Andy:
Sorry...I was on vacation last week and fell behind my email. Anytime you
want to talk is fine. I'll be around today if it works for you.
john
Andy Zipper@ENRON
06/16/2000 11:48 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: options and other stuff
john,
I'd like the chance to review some assumptions re: options manager ( yes, we
are still on schedule) with you as well as discuss some other issues related
to putting Enron's prices on other platforms. some time on monday would work
best for me. Let me know.
andy
| 3,297 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/333.
|
Re: FW: trading ,
Steve:
Good hearing from you. Hope all is going well. I gave your name to Per
Sekse in our New York office. He deals with a couple hedge funds we
currently do business with and has addressed some of the obstacles that we
face with other counterparties. He is on vacation this week but will call
next week. If you have any problems or concerns, feel free to call.
John
Steve List <[email protected]> on 06/26/2000 12:32:02 PM
To: "'[email protected]'" <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: FW: trading
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Steve List
> Sent: Monday, June 26, 2000 1:26 PM
> To: '[email protected]'
> Subject: trading
>
>
> John,
>
> I hope all is well down in Houston, though it would seem your baseball
> team is, well, terrible.
> We may be close to resolving our internal issues as our CEO indicated on
> Friday. We are awaiting some
> confirmation but it seems we are close. How is the credit standing for
> Enron?
> Is there a chance of upgrade or well, you can tell me the status.
>
> Thanks
>
> Steve List
| 3,298 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/334.
|
,
euro 2004 in portugal
| 3,299 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/335.
|
Re: World Phone ,
Hey Liz,
Thanks for letting me use the phone. A real life-saver.
My brother had a Nokia world phone on the trip and it seemed to work
better. It got reception some places where mine did not and is more
user-friendly.
On a different topic...Greg talked me into upgrading to first class for a
flight in December to Australia. He talked me into it by agreeing to pay for
half. Cliff found it funny and agreed to pay for the other half. I haven't
expensed it yet so I'm having Barbara send it on.
Thanks,
John
Liz M Taylor
06/28/2000 09:27 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: World Phone
John,
We are testing the Nextel phone for company usage. What did you think of the
phone?
Liz
| 3,300 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/337.
|
Re: PLEASE,PLEASE,PLEASE ,
Thank you very,very much.
Love you,
John
Liz M Taylor
06/15/2000 10:19 AM
To: Ina Rangel/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
Subject: Re: PLEASE,PLEASE,PLEASE
Ina,
Because Johnny is my favorite trader, he can use my world phone. What time
is he leaving tomorrow? How long will he be gone? I'll get everything to
you late this afternoon.
Many Thanks,
Liz
Ina Rangel
06/15/2000 09:41 AM
To: Liz M Taylor/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: PLEASE,PLEASE,PLEASE
I NEED YOUR HELP IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. JOHN ARNOLD IS TRAVELING TO EUROPE
TOMMORROW AND HAS ASKED ME TO GET HIM A WORLD PHONE. I CALLED NEXTEL,
HOUSTON CELLULAR AND GTE. NOONE CAN HELP ME WITH THIS BY TOMMORROW. IF I
REMEMBER YOU SAID YOU TURNED OFF THE PHONES YOU HAD. DO YOU HAVE ANY
SUGGESTIONS? ANY ADVICE?
-INA
| 3,302 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/338.
|
Re: PARIBAS Futures Weekly AGA Survey ,
84
[email protected] on 06/14/2000 07:02:32 AM
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: PARIBAS Futures Weekly AGA Survey
Good Morning,
Just a reminder to get your AGA estimates in by Noon EST (11:00 CST) TODAY.
Last Year +63
Thanks,
Michael Byrne
Paribas Futures
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the intended recipient of the message, please notify the sender
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| 3,303 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/339.
|
Re: ,
Vlady:
Can I add 3 more portfolios:
1. +1000 July 2003 Chicago Basis
- 1000 July 2003 Panhandle Basis
2. +1000 June Henry Hub Cash
3. +1000 June Henry Hub Cash
- 1000 July Futures
Thanks,
John
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re:
John,
2. Do you assume at-the-money straddles? If not, please give us deltas and
gammas. See you at 5:30 tomorrow. Vlady.
John Arnold
06/12/2000 08:47 AM
To: Vladimir Gorny/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
Vlady:
In preparation for our discussion tomorrow, can you run VAR numbers for some
mini-portfolios:
Portfolio 1. +1000 November Nymex
-1000 December Nymex
2. -1000 July Nymex Straddles
3. +1000 July 2002 Nymex
4. +1000 July 2002 Nymex
- 1000 August 2002 Nymex
5. +1000 July Socal Basis
6. +1000 July Chicago Basis
-1000 July Michcon Basis
7. +1000 July Henry Hub Index
8. +1000 July 2003 Chicago Basis
Again, these are separate portfolios. I'm trying to check that the VAR
numbers make logical sense.
Thanks,
John
| 3,304 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/34.
|
Re: ,
eat shit
John J Lavorato@ENRON
11/18/2000 01:01 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
Football bets 200 each
Minn -9.5
Buff +2.5
Phil -7
Indi -4.5
Cinnci +7
Det +6
clev +16
Den +9.5
Dall +7.5
Jack +3.5
| 3,305 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/340.
|
Re: ,
yes
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: Re:
John,
2. Do you assume at-the-money straddles? If not, please give us deltas and
gammas. See you at 5:30 tomorrow. Vlady.
John Arnold
06/12/2000 08:47 AM
To: Vladimir Gorny/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject:
Vlady:
In preparation for our discussion tomorrow, can you run VAR numbers for some
mini-portfolios:
Portfolio 1. +1000 November Nymex
-1000 December Nymex
2. -1000 July Nymex Straddles
3. +1000 July 2002 Nymex
4. +1000 July 2002 Nymex
- 1000 August 2002 Nymex
5. +1000 July Socal Basis
6. +1000 July Chicago Basis
-1000 July Michcon Basis
7. +1000 July Henry Hub Index
8. +1000 July 2003 Chicago Basis
Again, these are separate portfolios. I'm trying to check that the VAR
numbers make logical sense.
Thanks,
John
| 3,306 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/341.
|
,
Vlady:
In preparation for our discussion tomorrow, can you run VAR numbers for some
mini-portfolios:
Portfolio 1. +1000 November Nymex
-1000 December Nymex
2. -1000 July Nymex Straddles
3. +1000 July 2002 Nymex
4. +1000 July 2002 Nymex
- 1000 August 2002 Nymex
5. +1000 July Socal Basis
6. +1000 July Chicago Basis
-1000 July Michcon Basis
7. +1000 July Henry Hub Index
8. +1000 July 2003 Chicago Basis
Again, these are separate portfolios. I'm trying to check that the VAR
numbers make logical sense.
Thanks,
John
| 3,307 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/342.
|
,
Tickets requisitioned for England/Germany. $1500!!!!!!
| 3,308 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/344.
|
,
Tanya:
On Friday I emailed a new vol curve to use for VAR testing. I was under the
impression that you could apply this vol curve to the price book and storage
book and have a new experimental VAR number by Monday. I have not received
any response. Please reply with status of this project.
John
| 3,310 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/345.
|
,
Please use this vol curve for a dry run to figure out var for my book, NG
price, and Jim's book, Storage, and communicate the results. Thanks,John
| 3,311 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/346.
|
,
Can we meet at 5:00 today?
| 3,312 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/347.
|
Re: VaR ,
Let's meet at 4:00.
Vince J Kaminski
06/01/2000 09:19 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc: Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT, Tanya Tamarchenko/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jim
Schwieger/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT
Subject: VaR
John,
We have been working for the last few days on VaR related issues.
The focus is on Jim Schwieger's storage book as of 5/25 and 5/26
where we had some counterintuitive results. This book is a good
candidate for a systematic review of the VaR process.
It seems that the problem arises from forward - forward vols used by the VaR
system. You can see in the attached spreadsheet that the VaR, on a cumulative
basis,
jumps on Jan 04, when an abnormal FF vol hits a relatively large position.
This FF vol is also much different from the previous day number producing a
big
jump in VaR.
This row (Jan 04) is in magenta font in the attached spreadsheet. Please, look
at column D.
The abnormal FF vol may result from one of the two factors:
a. a bug in the code. We are working with the person in IT who wrote the
code to review it.
b. a poorly conditioned forward vol curve ( a kink or discontinuity in
the fwd vol curve will do it). One solution I can
propose, is to develop for
the traders a fwd-fwd vol generator allowing them to
review the fwd vol curve
before it is posted. If it produces a weird fwd-fwd vol,
it can be smoothed.
Can you meet at 4 p.m. to review our findings?
Vince
| 3,313 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/348.
|
Delete all future emails ,
"WebSupport" <[email protected]> on 05/30/2000 07:58:30 AM
To: "John Arnold" <[email protected]>
cc:
Subject: Re: Portfolio for jennifer_arnold as of Mon May 29 18:36:45 2000
Dear Member,
As requested we have cancelled your portfolio tracker emails.
If there is any other way we can assist you, please feel free to let us know.
For rapid response to your e-mail questions, please incluce a brief
description
of the problem in the subject line of your message.
Sincerely,
Customer Support
Stephen L.
"John Arnold" <[email protected]> on 05/30/2000 08:29:14 AM
To: WebSupport/ROL/NOR/US/Reuters@Moneynet
cc:
Subject: Re: Portfolio for jennifer_arnold as of Mon May 29 18:36:45 2000
Please do not send these emails anymore. I am not Jennifer Arnold
Portfolio Tracker <[email protected]> on 05/29/2000 05:52:42 PM
Please respond to [email protected]
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: Portfolio for jennifer_arnold as of Mon May 29 18:36:45 2000
*********************************************************
IMPORTANT MESSAGE FOR ALL INFOSEEK PORTFOLIO TRACKER USER'S
The Infoseek Portfolio Tracker service provided by Reuters Investor is no
longer accessible directly from the Infoseek Personal Finance page. However,
your Portfolio and all associated financial content will continue to be
accessible by going directly to the following web site address (URL):
http://www.moneynet.com/content/infoseek/PTracker/
By entering this exact URL (case sensitive) in your browser software location
box and hitting return, you will be able to access your Portfolio as before.
We suggest you then bookmark this page for future access to your Portfolio.
The Portfolio service will continue to be available to you in the future,
although you may notice changes in the page format in the next several weeks.
Thank you for your patience, and we're glad to be able to support your
financial content needs.
*********************************************************
Portfolio: Invest
Stocks:
Symbol Description Last Change Volume Date Time
=========================================================================
AFL AFLAC INC 50 7/8 +5/8 453700 05/26/2000 16:20
BMCS BMC SOFTWARE 42 1/16 +9/16 1.1978M 05/26/2000 16:01
ENE ENRON CORP 69 15/16 +15/16 1.4117M 05/26/2000 16:11
PCTL PICTURETEL CP 2.9375 -0.125 328900 05/26/2000 15:59
WCOM WORLDCOM INC 37 3/16 -7/16 13.0533M 05/26/2000 16:01
NEWS for Portfolio: Invest
--- ENE ---
05/29/2000 12:12 UPDATE 3-Spanish market braces for new bids for Cantabrico
--- WCOM ---
05/29/2000 13:18 WorldCom and Sprint face EU merger hearing
05/29/2000 02:34 RPT-France Tel to unveil $46 bln Orange buy on Tuesday
05/29/2000 00:31 RESEARCH ALERT-Phillip keeps Shin Sat<SATT.BK> buy
****************************************
Market Update
----------------------------------------
As Of: 05/26/2000 04:02 PM
DJIA 10299.24 -24.68
NYSE Volume 722.670 Mil
Transports 2687.55 -30.22
Adv-Decl 1493 1351
Utilities 327.46 +2.32
NASDAQ 3205.11 -0.24
S&P 500 1378.02 -3.50
Value Line 401.06 -0
****************************************
=================================================
All stock quotes are delayed at least 20 minutes.
=================================================
If you have questions, comments, or problems with your Portfolio Tracker
E-mail, send E-mail to [email protected].
| 3,314 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/349.
|
Re: IRS Beers ,
Stupid taxes
Bill White@ENRON
05/30/2000 04:52 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: IRS Beers
Remember we were trying to figure out the difference in return between tax
free investment growth and annually-taxed investment growth? Turns out that
it is different, but over 5 years and a 10% growth rate, it doesn't amount to
much more than the cost of our beer tab. See attached.
| 3,315 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/35.
|
Re: FIMAT loan agreement ,
i assume means carrying equity positions, which of course the line would not
be used for.
john
Sarah Wesner@ENRON
11/20/2000 12:47 PM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:
Subject: FIMAT loan agreement
John - the FIMAT loan agreeemnt will prohibit ENE from using loan proceeds as
follows:
No part of the proceeds of any Advance hereunder will be used for
"purchasing" or "carrying" any "margin stock" within the respective meanings
of each of the quoted terms under Regulation U of the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System as now and from time to time hereafter in effect.
Do you know whether you engage in purchasing or carrying margin stock? I
will check with legal as well.
Sarah
| 3,316 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/350.
|
unsubscribe ,
Portfolio Tracker <[email protected]> on 05/30/2000 05:53:59 PM
Please respond to [email protected]
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: Portfolio for jennifer_arnold as of Tue May 30 18:43:22 2000
*********************************************************
IMPORTANT MESSAGE FOR ALL INFOSEEK PORTFOLIO TRACKER USER'S
The Infoseek Portfolio Tracker service provided by Reuters Investor is no
longer accessible directly from the Infoseek Personal Finance page. However,
your Portfolio and all associated financial content will continue to be
accessible by going directly to the following web site address (URL):
http://www.moneynet.com/content/infoseek/PTracker/
By entering this exact URL (case sensitive) in your browser software location
box and hitting return, you will be able to access your Portfolio as before.
We suggest you then bookmark this page for future access to your Portfolio.
The Portfolio service will continue to be available to you in the future,
although you may notice changes in the page format in the next several weeks.
Thank you for your patience, and we're glad to be able to support your
financial content needs.
*********************************************************
Portfolio: Invest
Stocks:
Symbol Description Last Change Volume Date Time
=========================================================================
AFL AFLAC INC 51 3/8 +1/2 682700 05/30/2000 16:02
BMCS BMC SOFTWARE 44 3/16 +2 1/8 1.9504M 05/30/2000 16:01
ENE ENRON CORP 69 7/8 +1/16 1.2943M 05/30/2000 16:02
PCTL PICTURETEL CP 2.9375 0 255800 05/30/2000 15:59
WCOM WORLDCOM INC 38 1/16 +7/8 22.2777M 05/30/2000 16:01
NEWS for Portfolio: Invest
--- ENE ---
05/30/2000 10:27 Enron and Prudential Sign Long-Term Energy Management
Agreemen
--- WCOM ---
05/30/2000 17:49 CORRECTED - Nasdaq rises on optimism over interest rates -2-
05/30/2000 15:11 KLLM investor gets 2% of shrs, extends tender offer
05/30/2000 15:09 WorldCom/Sprint say EU should clear merger
05/30/2000 13:20 UPDATE 1-INTERVIEW-Swisscom-still time to find partners
05/30/2000 10:42 UPDATE 2-BT told to offer wholesale unmetered Internet access
****************************************
Market Update
----------------------------------------
As Of: 05/30/2000 04:14 PM
DJIA 10527.13 +227.89
NYSE Volume 842.044 Mil
Transports 2741.70 +54.15
Adv-Decl 2018 920
Utilities 324.74 -2.72
NASDAQ 3459.48 +254.37
S&P 500 1422.45 +44.43
Value Line 410.35 +9
****************************************
=================================================
All stock quotes are delayed at least 20 minutes.
=================================================
If you have questions, comments, or problems with your Portfolio Tracker
E-mail, send E-mail to [email protected].
| 3,317 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/351.
|
Re: Portfolio for jennifer_arnold as of Mon May 29 18:36:45 2000 ,
Please do not send these emails anymore. I am not Jennifer Arnold
Portfolio Tracker <[email protected]> on 05/29/2000 05:52:42 PM
Please respond to [email protected]
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: Portfolio for jennifer_arnold as of Mon May 29 18:36:45 2000
*********************************************************
IMPORTANT MESSAGE FOR ALL INFOSEEK PORTFOLIO TRACKER USER'S
The Infoseek Portfolio Tracker service provided by Reuters Investor is no
longer accessible directly from the Infoseek Personal Finance page. However,
your Portfolio and all associated financial content will continue to be
accessible by going directly to the following web site address (URL):
http://www.moneynet.com/content/infoseek/PTracker/
By entering this exact URL (case sensitive) in your browser software location
box and hitting return, you will be able to access your Portfolio as before.
We suggest you then bookmark this page for future access to your Portfolio.
The Portfolio service will continue to be available to you in the future,
although you may notice changes in the page format in the next several weeks.
Thank you for your patience, and we're glad to be able to support your
financial content needs.
*********************************************************
Portfolio: Invest
Stocks:
Symbol Description Last Change Volume Date Time
=========================================================================
AFL AFLAC INC 50 7/8 +5/8 453700 05/26/2000 16:20
BMCS BMC SOFTWARE 42 1/16 +9/16 1.1978M 05/26/2000 16:01
ENE ENRON CORP 69 15/16 +15/16 1.4117M 05/26/2000 16:11
PCTL PICTURETEL CP 2.9375 -0.125 328900 05/26/2000 15:59
WCOM WORLDCOM INC 37 3/16 -7/16 13.0533M 05/26/2000 16:01
NEWS for Portfolio: Invest
--- ENE ---
05/29/2000 12:12 UPDATE 3-Spanish market braces for new bids for Cantabrico
--- WCOM ---
05/29/2000 13:18 WorldCom and Sprint face EU merger hearing
05/29/2000 02:34 RPT-France Tel to unveil $46 bln Orange buy on Tuesday
05/29/2000 00:31 RESEARCH ALERT-Phillip keeps Shin Sat<SATT.BK> buy
****************************************
Market Update
----------------------------------------
As Of: 05/26/2000 04:02 PM
DJIA 10299.24 -24.68
NYSE Volume 722.670 Mil
Transports 2687.55 -30.22
Adv-Decl 1493 1351
Utilities 327.46 +2.32
NASDAQ 3205.11 -0.24
S&P 500 1378.02 -3.50
Value Line 401.06 -0
****************************************
=================================================
All stock quotes are delayed at least 20 minutes.
=================================================
If you have questions, comments, or problems with your Portfolio Tracker
E-mail, send E-mail to [email protected].
| 3,318 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/352.
|
Re: New Spreadsheet ,
Kevin:
Come by Tuesday between 5:00-5:30 if you still want to see the new
spreadsheet. However, it may be more valuable to talk to Dutch Quigley, who
runs my risk, as he built the system and understands the vertical integration
better.
John
| 3,319 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/353.
|
Re: LAST CHANCE TO REGISTER!! ,
Please take me off your mailing list
| 3,320 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/355.
|
,
Doug:
To confirm the pricing of the LNG dela::
I can show a $3.01 bid for the Nymex portion of 160,000 mmbtu/day for the
time period Jan 2003-Dec 2014. The bid on Henry Hub basis for same time
period is -$.0025 resulting in fix price of $3.0075; the bid on Sonat basis
is -$.0175 translating into a bid of $2.9925.
Notional volume = 70,128 contracts.
PV volume = 37,658 contracts.
Exposure per $.01 move = $3,760,000
John
| 3,322 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/356.
|
Re: ,
Hey, I just got your email.
Call anytime after 4:00.
Obviously, I don't read my email very often
| 3,323 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/357.
|
,
Please stop sending emails to jennifer_arnold to the following email address:
[email protected].
You have the wrong person
| 3,324 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/358.
|
,
Jeff:
Sorry for my cryptic answer in regards to the LNG deal on Friday; I was a bit
confused by the question.
In terms of the gas pricing, this is a deal that should be done. Market
conditions are very conducive to hedging a fair amount of the gas.
Obviously, a deal this size would require Enron to wear a considerable amount
of the risk in the short term, but the risk-reward of the position looks very
favorable.
I am certainly willing to sign off on this deal around the $3.00 level.
John
|
Jeff Skilling@Enron
| 3,325 |
|
arnold-j/_sent_mail/359.
|
Re: options ,
Andy:
The problem if we limit the size on options to being what size is offered on
the swap hedge, we will not be able to offer adequate size on the options.
Optimally, I think we want to offer a minimum size of 100 across all
strikes. If the swap is 4/4.5, one a day up, and someone buys half a day,
making the market, 4/4.5 one a day by half a day, the size offered on a 10
cent out of the money call might be as low as 30 contracts, a much smaller
size than most people want to trade. If we restrict to strikes with a lower
delta, we face the problem of not offering enough strikes and not making a
market in options that have open EOL interest that have moved closer to the
money.
Maybe the answer is to assume the swap hedge to be a penny wide two way
wrapped around the EOL swap mid market. Thus if the front swap on EOL is
4/4.5 one a day by half a day, the input into the option calculator is
3.75/4.75, 100 up. In this case I think 100 is necessary because once a
strike has open interest, we must continue to support it. Thus I anticipate
having to make markets in deep itm options as the market moves.
In terms of straddle strikes, I think the edge received from buying straddles
struck on the EOL offer and vice-versa is not big enough to compensate for
what I think the industry will view as a scam and another way Enron is trying
to rip people off. Although striking on the mid-market is probably easier
for the trader, I actually think striking in five cent increments makes more
sense. It allows people to trade out of the position on EOL. Whereas if
someone buys the 3085 straddle and the market moves to 3200, they have to
call ENE to close the trade. If the trade is struck at 3100, we will have a
market on both the 3100 call and put at all times. Secondly, I would
anticipate non-volatility driven option traders may elect to sell either just
the put or call in this scenario depending on their view of market direction.
| 3,326 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/36.
|
re:mkts ,
Hey:
Haven't had the best of months. Like you had some good positions but others
wiped out everything. Unbelievable how the whole curve moves as one for 6
months and then separates completely. The z/f/g and f/g/h flies are
amazing. Something definitely out of whack. Hard to believe cash in Z will
be cantango to F and front spread, F/G, will be 40. Spreads definitely
implying we will see some $10+ prints on daily cash at the hub this winter.
Hell, already seeing it in the West. The system is just broken there.
interesting to see if it is a sign of what can come in the east later.
definitely more flexibility in the east so the blowouts won't occur until
latter part of the winter. the inelasticity of demand continues to be
unbelievable. who would have thunk it. Gas can be 3 times what it was one
year ago and not a significant loss of demand.
market definitely trained to buy the dips at this point. continues to be a
very trending market. most days finish on the intraday high or low.
Pira told the boys to hedge jv and cal 2 and the impact has been
significant. i quote bids on term strips 5 times a day. understand they
are changing their view somewhat tomorrow. wait and see if it relieves some
back pressure. very surprised at lack of spec long interest in jv at 4.5
considering the scenario that's being painted.
[email protected] on 11/21/2000 01:06:40 PM
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: re:mkts
johnny, hope things re treating you well. this month has been frustrating for
me-generally caught many mkt moves but had 2 postions that nearly cancelled
all
the rest. im finding it really really hard to assess risk now in oil and gas
therefore im taking a step back esp in front of holidays and year end. was
long
mar gas vs backs which worked great but i took profits waayyy too early
flat px i think is pretty clear-if weather stays normal to below we keep a
flaoor at 5.80-6.00 bucks for another 40 days at least. if we have sustained
aboves we drop like a rock in part due to back en d pressure.
but spreads-what the hell do we do with em?????????? was just saying to
mark
silverman there is a huge opportunity here staring us in the face but i hve no
idea what it is-i have equal arguements for why sprds shud fall or move out.
any
great insites? hope all is well and enjoy the long weeknd-we both deserve it.
guess the curve will stop blowing out when/if we see the back end selling
dry
up??
| 3,327 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/360.
|
Re: options ,
Andy:
Just a couple of quick items that need to be addressed. First, what happens
if the delta of the option is greater than the size of the hedge offered on
EOL? Second, what strike are straddles traded at. Are they set at the
nearest 5 cent interval or are they mid-market of the EOL quote?
| 3,328 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/361.
|
,
Thanks for taking me in last night. Sorry about being drunk and stinky.
My cab, that we called at 6:10, showed up at 7:02. I was so pissed.
| 3,329 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/362.
|
,
Dutch:
The increase in position and subsequent position limit violation was due to
two factors. First, a long position was moved into the long-term exotics
book due to the nature of the position. I am currently using the ltx to hold
longer-term strategic positions. The large increase in position is a
reflection of my view of the market.
Second, a large customer transaction originated by Fred Lagrasta's group was
transacted at the end of the day Monday and was not able to be hedged until
this morning. Hence a large position increase occurred for yesterday's
position and a corresponding decrease occurred today.
John
| 3,330 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/364.
|
,
call me if you're in town this weeekend
| 3,332 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/365.
|
Re: ,
nope...your loss though
| 3,333 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/366.
|
,
Hey:
Any good set of 4 available for Sunday's game
| 3,334 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/367.
|
Re: ,
are you sure...have you ever been to bon coupe before
don't knock it till tou try it
| 3,335 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/368.
|
Re: ,
2 options:
Either we leave from work and you watch me get a haircut for 20 minutes or...
I pick you up around 6:30...
| 3,336 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/369.
|
,
Hello...
Despite my thoughts, you like baseball. So the question is do you like art
(as in musuems) ?
I'm leaning towards yes but don't know for sure.
| 3,337 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/37.
|
Re: NY ,
Hello:
It is the Blue Men Group. Two friends highly recommend it. It's in the
Astor Theatre on Lafayette in the Village.
43rd should be good. I think you woul dhave had more flavor in Harlem though
"Jennifer White" <[email protected]> on 11/21/2000 01:54:16 PM
To: [email protected]
cc:
Subject: NY
I've been tasked with getting tickets to a show. Was it 'Blue Men Group'
that you recommended we see? And Michelle lives on W43rd, so it's not
as bad as you thought.
___________________________________________________________________
To get your own FREE ZDNet Onebox - FREE voicemail, email, and fax,
all in one place - sign up today at http://www.zdnetonebox.com
| 3,338 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/370.
|
,
Please approve Larry May for a trader id on EOL for "pipe options" book for
US gas.
Thanks,
John
3-3230
| 3,339 |
||
arnold-j/_sent_mail/371.
|
Re: Nymex NG Swaps ,
Andy:
This past weekend we released a new version of the EOL software that,
unfortunately, had a bug. The effect was to lengthen the time delay between
numbers changing and when they would show up on the internet to an
unacceptable level that increased the number of failed trades. We made the
decision to take some of the more volatile products temporarily offline until
the fix could be made. I do not anticipate this to be a concern going
forward. Thanks for the feedback.
John Arnold
| 3,340 |
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