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The quality of project management has a direct impact on technical documentation, a fact project managers overlook . This article looks at the areas where the relationship between project management and technical documentation intersect.
Put a plan around a project or a project around a plan
Technical documentation will suffer if the project is floundering without a project plan. A document project without a plan is always at risk of failure. There is a tendency by those with no documentation experience to change the goalposts and and add to the project because in many cases they did not listen to the experience and advice of their technical Writer.
While documentation cannot compensate for the lack of a plan, it can help to revive a troubled project. This method of catching up through documentation will extend timelines, but will serve the project better by mitigating risks and strengthening the overall product through documentation analysis.
Frustrated
An experienced technical writers can certainly find their frustration peaking when the project timeline isn’t workable, or the Project Manager fails to listen to advice. THis happens when:
working with staff members who have no experience working with documentation and assume its an easy straightforward task
unworkable deadlines that sacrifice documentation quality and lead to frustration among internal parties
It is worth bearing in mind the following:
when scheduling technical documentation tap into the TAs knowledge to help plan the timeline for documentation.
Writing or migrating content is not an instantaneous process; a failure to work with the writers could led to counter productive problems.
If the timeline is genuinely tight, develop a list of documentation priorities in order for users to adopt the product.
A typical breakdown for a technical writing project includes:
Research time to learn the project and other elements, such as the underlying technology and related issues required for the documentation effort.
Dedicated time for writing.
Dedicated time for editing. copy editing and editing for style, clarity, and other issues.
Dedicated time to review the technical accuracy of the documentation. Never assume that a document is correct. Always create review time for accuracy by SMEs.
Allow sufficient ramp-up time
Technical writers need sufficient ramp-up time to become versed in the product. While ramp-up time is relative depending on the writer, a project manager can support the writer:
Provide ready access to necessary hardware and software so the technical writer doesn’t have to waste time waiting on equipment required for documentation projects.
Provide the necessary system access, usernames, and passwords.
Allow technical writers ramp-up time is more than a learning curve; it’s having the resources in place so they can perform their jobs with minimal downtime, which is billable when they are on-site waiting for corporate bureaucracies to deliver the resources they need.
Review the reviewers
While technical writers must have a stake in the technical accuracy of the documentation they produce, there is often a need for technical reviewers to review the documentation. Take into account this review time in the overall project schedule, including:
Scheduled time for technical staff, project managers, and other reviewers to go over the documentation.
Time for the technical writers to add the revisions to the documentation.
Can project managers and technical writers get along?
The documentation component of a project requires input from technical writers to help ensure quality technical documentation. A working collaboration between project managers and technical writers can help organisations reap the benefits of better design (because it’s documented), and better customer support through documentation. A self-sufficient customer who doesn’t call customer support is like money in the bank for your company.
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Author writer201Posted on February 20, 2019 March 14, 2019 Categories Technical WriterLeave a comment on Project Management and Doucmentation
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Sister Wives star Christine Brown's daughter Ysabel, 17, looks healthy as she she shops at the mall after back surgery
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ON THE MEND
Sister Wives star Christine Brown’s daughter Ysabel, 17, looks healthy as she she shops at the mall after back surgery
Grant Hodgson
14:40 ET, Dec 14 2020
Updated: 14:48 ET, Dec 14 2020
SISTER Wives' Ysabel Brown stepped out in her Christmas-themed pajama pants for some retail therapy just three months after having major back surgery.
The 17 year old, looking well following October's 12-hour operation, drove herself to her local high school to pick up a book before heading to a Target.
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Ysbeal went to her local school before doing some shoppingCredit: PPA /The US Sun
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The teen looked as though she has made a great recovery from her back operationCredit: PPA /The US Sun
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Ysabel did some Christmas shopping at her local TargetCredit: PPA /The US Sun
She was not accompanied by her mom Christine, who stayed behind at their $520,000 home just outside of Flagstaff, AZ.
Christine launched a campaign to raise $50,000 for Ysabel's operation earlier in the year and raised at least half the cash from sales of her LuLaRoe clothes line.
Launching the appeal in a Facebook post, Christine said: "One of my daughters needs a surgery. I need $50,000 for a down payment for the surgery. You guys are helping me make it happen. Thank you. $50,000 for a down was so daunting so I decided to just work hard.”
In October, The Sun reported how Ysabel, her mom and sisters Gwendlyn, 19, and Truely, ten, flew first class to New Jersey ahead of the surgery, despite their money troubles.
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Ysabel pictured with her mom, ChristineCredit: Twitter
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The teen and her family flew first class to New Jersey ahead of October's operationCredit: Instagram
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Ysabel had a 12-hour procedure to correct her curvature of the spineCredit: Facebook
There, the 17 year old had a 12-hour operation to correct her spine which had curved the wrong way because of a condition called scoliosis.
She spent five days in hospital recovering from the operation, while her mom and siblings stayed with Christine's sister.
Dad Kody was slammed by Sister Wives fans for not accompanying his daughter after deciding not to travel because restrictions caused by the Covid pandemic meant he would have been separated from his three other wives and other children for four weeks.
Ysabel was diagnosed with scoliosis in 2017 in an emotional scene that was featured on the show.
Kody and Christine first tried to correct Ysabel’s aggressive curvature of the spine using a brace, but the condition worsened and they eventually decided surgery would be required.
Ysabel, fighting back tears, said in one episode: “Wearing the brace is hard because I look bigger and I can’t do as much, it’s hard emotionally, it’s horrible wearing the daytime brace. It hurts all over and I have bruises. It’s awful.”
Sister Wives scenes featuring the op and Ysabel’s recovery are expected to be screened in a new season of Sister Wives.
Christine, speaking in the show, said scoliosis affects three million young Americans each year, mostly girls aged between ten and 12.
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Ysabel's big sister Gwendlyn also went shopping at TargetCredit: PPA /The US Sun
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Gwendlyn met a friend before heading to the family's local mallCredit: PPA /The US Sun
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The sisters and their mom live in this $520,000 home just outside FlagstaffCredit: PPA /The US Sun
Separately, Ysabel’s big sister Gwendlyn also headed to Target later the same day wearing similar brightly-colored pants.
Gwendlyn, a 2020 high school graduate, met up with a friend before doing their shopping.
Kody is living with wife Robyn, 42, in a $820,000 home just a couple of miles from Christine’s impressive house.
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KEVIN Spacey is set to star in his first film since sexual assault allegations surfaced nearly four years ago.
The Italian movie, called L'uomo Che Disegno Dio or The Man Who Drew God, will feature Spacey playing a detective investigating a blind man accused of pedophilia.
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Kevin Spacey will play a detective investigating a blind man accused of pedophiliaCredit: AP:Associated Press
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Franco Nero, left, will direct the movie with his wife Vanessa Redgrave, right, starring alongside SpaceyCredit: PA:Press Association
The film will be directed by Franco Nero, who is most known for the roles he played in movies such as the spaghetti-western Django in 1966.
The movie will also star Nero's wife, British actress Vanessa Redgrave, and reportedly begin filming in Turin, Italy, in the coming weeks.
"I'm very happy Kevin agreed to participate in my film," Nero told ABC News.
"I consider him a great actor and I can't wait to start the movie."
In a phone interview to CNN on Monday Nero told the outlet: "I cast him because he is a great actor" and when asked whether the accusations made against Spacey, Nero said he believes they are "false".
The 61-year-old actor's career fell apart in 2017 when he faced multiple accusations and lawsuits over alleged sexual misconduct.
Actor Anthony Rapp accused him of sexually assaulting him at the age of 14.
Rapp was the first alleged victim to come forward, claiming that Spacey - who was 26 at the time - had made a sexual advance in 1986.
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Spacey at a pretrial hearing at a Massachusetts court in 2019Credit: AP:Associated Press
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Spacey poses with Hilary Swank in 2000 after winning the Oscar for American BeautyCredit: AP:Associated Press
In total, more than 30 men claimed that they had been victims of Spacey's unwanted advances.
Spacey has stayed relatively silent since the accusations four years ago except for videos posted to his YouTube page.
In December Spacey uploaded his annual Christmas video urging those who "feel guilty or shame" to seek help in an anti-suicide message.
"If you’re standing in a place that you can no longer remain standing, if you’re suffering and need help, if you feel guilt or shame, if you’re struggling with your identity, if your back’s up against the wall or if you feel that there is no path for you," he said.
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Anthony Rapp accused Kevin Spacey of making sexual advances toward him when he was 14-years-old
"Whatever your situation, I promise you there is a path and that at this time, during this holiday and beyond, even if you don’t feel it, there are people out there who understand and who can help."
Spacey has denied all allegations against him and the final US criminal case was dismissed in July 2019, but police in London are probing sex harassment claims during the star's time at the Old Vic theatre.
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London's Old Vic theatre, where Spacey was an artistic director from 2004 to 2015, also apologized as it revealed it had received 20 allegations of inappropriate behavior.
Theatre bosses said a "cult of personality" had contributed to the organisation’s failings.
He was stripped of an International Emmy Award and his acclaimed Netflix series House of Cards killed off his central character as they axed him from the show.
Former House of Cards star Kevin Spacey speaks for the first time since sexual misconduct allegations ended his career
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Discover the most famous people born in 1764. The list includes people like Charles Grey, 2nd Earl Grey, Fletcher Christian, Ann Radcliffe, Benjamin Henry Latrobe, José Gervasio Artigas and many more. This list of celebrities is loosely sorted by popularity. People featured on this list, include political leaders, diplomats, poets and judges born in 1764. This list includes people from England, United States and many more countries.
This ranking is based on an algorithm that combines various factors, including the votes of our users and search trends on the internet.
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How do you say to billions of Asians and Africans that they cannot have it all because the economic model of the West is flawed?
By Chandran Nair, January 31, 2012
Credit: AJP/Shutterstock.com
Takeaways
Asian and African countries willingly adopted the Western economic model in the post-colonial era to "catch up" with the train of globalization.
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Leaders of developing nations went to the best schools in the West and brought back the Western economic model and its political structures.
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Asia has promoted economic growth with complete disregard for the catastrophic outcome of having five billion Asians aspire to consume like Americans.
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The world continues to operate under a fundamentally flawed economic system based on false constructs of promoting relentless consumption. Even worse, it relies on the systematic under-pricing of resources. This, in turn, has resulted in vested interests seeking to hollow out the legitimate and vital role of the state, which is to protect the commons and thereby the rights of the non-business majority.
<!-strCallout1->The “growth is forever” school seeks to maintain its mantra of invincibility via its main beneficiaries and is perpetuated by a whole industry of so-called thought leaders, from business schools to economists and even political leaders. And as long as it did deliver, it remained seductive.
The rest of the world — accustomed to viewing the dominant Western nations, because of their developmental advantage, as the fountain of all economic knowledge and ideas on human progress and governance — timidly accepted this orthodoxy. In many ways, there was no choice. Asian and African countries willingly adopted the Western economic model in the post-colonial era to “catch up” with the train of globalization and the economic performance of developed nations.
Leaders of developing nations, many of whom went to the best schools in the West, by and large came back with only one set of ideas — that of the Western economic model and its political structures. The importation of Western ideas continues to this day. This is especially so with regard to economics and the established Western narrative about the compact between globalization, free markets, capitalism and democracy.
As my own continent, Asia, has grown, businesses, governments and the media there have promoted unfettered economic growth as the ultimate answer to the region’s most pressing issues. They did so, however, with complete disregard for the catastrophic outcome of having five billion Asians aspire to consume like Americans. They have perpetuated the notion that innovation in technology, free markets and finance will solve all global challenges, including sustainability and resources scarcity.
<!-strCallout2->Political and business leaders preach that developing countries can “manufacture their way out of poverty” by tying themselves to the consumption paradigm of the global economy. What goes unmentioned is that this strategy primarily serves the interest of the West. The Washington Consensus, for example, advocates broad trade liberalization through privatization and increasing foreign direct investment (along with other structural adjustment strategies) as a “first stage policy reform” for developing countries to boost growth.
Let me be clear: These ideas were not formulated in the capitals of China, India, Indonesia, Brazil or Nigeria. There is an increasing awareness in these nations of the need for achieving sustainable growth over the long term.
The science on this matter is very clear: The world’s collective consumption rate is pushing our planet to the brink of ruin. Since the 20th century, the world embarked on a three-decade growth spurt, expanding its economy eightfold. The world’s population hit the seven billion mark in 2011 and is expected to reach ten billion before the end of the century (according to UN projections). Various reports suggest that in the next two decades, the resource intensity required to produce one unit of GDP will need to be reduced by 50% to 80% for a global population of 10 billion people to have a sustainable future.
Against this background of resource constraints, the Chinese, Indians, Indonesians and Africans — who together account for just over half of the world’s population — are now seeking to join the world community as economic equals. They are encouraged to aspire to live like those in the West. In my view, that is, at best, a naïve undertaking. The catastrophic consequences of billions of new Western-style consumers is something that economists, politicians and governments of most developed nations are only now starting to come to terms with.
<!-strCallout3->Yet, at the heart of the West’s state of denial is this question: How do you say to these billions that they cannot have it all because the much-vaunted economic model of the West is fundamentally flawed?
We should have a much more honest discussion. Asians and Africans need to stop believing that “their time has come” and that they will now write the new rules of the world economy. Perhaps so, but not without fundamentally changing it. Triumphalism over the West’s current woes must stop and be replaced by a realistic understanding that unless the governments in these nations change course, their own legitimacy will be challenged by growing social unrest.
The ultimate answer will require a redrawing of the entire notion of how we create human progress in an era of resource scarcity — and thereby also a redefinition of rights.
Editor’s note: This essay was adapted from the author’s presentation at the 2011 Salzburg Trilogue. Hosted by the Bertelsmann Stiftung in Germany, the Salzburg Trilogue facilitates international cultural dialogue by bringing together recognized public figures to consider matters of global importance.
More on this topic
How Europe and the U.S. Dropped the Baton
As Africa Multiplies
Should We Trust China?
Tags: Bertelsmann Stiftung Salzburg Trilogue, China, economics, population, Washington consensus
About Chandran Nair
Chandran Nair is the founder of the Global Institute For Tomorrow (GIFT) in Hong Kong, and author of “The Sustainable State: The Future of Government, Economy and Society.”
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Selena Gomez has been producing a lot of projects lately. She seems fully busy with her music career. However, she has done many acting projects in the past. Her role in the fundamentals of caring was widely appreciated and she even got a lot of positive reviews.
Gomez also went for the production of the famous Netflix show “13 Reasons Why”. Selena also appeared at the event related to the show. She also released the tracks for the show. Selena Gomez also faced a lot of backlash for producing such a controversial show. But it did not stop her at all. She is back with another production.
This time Selena Gomez is producing a movie called The Broken Heart Gallery.
Who is the writer of The Broken Heart Gallery?
Natalie Krinsky is the writer a director of the upcoming movie. It is her debut as a director. She is going to direct the upcoming movie and Selena Gomez is all excited to be working with Natalie Krinsky.
A Possible 13 Reasons Why Spinoff Show
Selena Gomez said this about the opportunity to work with Natalie:
“Hearing from more female writers and directors is very much needed. Natalie is a wonderful talent and I am happy to be a part of her debut film.”
What is the plot of the movie?
There is not much about the plot on the internet yet. It is a romantic comedy. It is about a girl who saves items from her previous boyfriends. She decides to create an art show from the collected items.
It is a unique concept and it will grab a lot of attention. Selena is all excited and she even shared her happiness on Instagram. She liked the pictures and started to follow the official page of the upcoming movie.
View this post on Instagram
A post shared by The Broken Hearts Gallery (@brokenheartsgallery)
Release Date of The Broken Heart Gallery
Due to the current situation, pandemic, a lot of movies are delayed. But Selena Gomez shared that the movie is releasing in cinemas. Actually, Christopher Nolan’s Tenet is also going to be released in July. Selena Gomez’s Broken Heart Gallery is going to be one of the first movies in the cinema. The movie is going to release on 10th July.
“I understand people’s concerns regarding returning to activities we all loved prior to COVID-19,” Gomez continued. “I hope everyone will listen to scientists’ recommendations and consider others’ health and safety while enjoying a movie theater experience.”
It is hard to maintain social distancing in theaters but not impossible. There are 5,400 theaters in America and 500 in California. The movies might not earn that much this year or next year.
Cast
Dacre Montgomery is going to play the main lead role. He is famous for appearing in Stranger things. Utkarsh Ambudkar, Molly Gordon, Phillipa Soo, Suki Waterhouse, Arturo Castro, Ego Nwodim, Taylor Hill, and Bernadette Peters.
All the cast members are excited to be part of the project produced by Selena Gomez. However, we have to see how this movie will do at the box office. Will it be a success like 13 Reasons Why?
Aliza Fatyma
Aliza Fatima is a writer/author at The Panther Tech.
Tags: Broken Heart Gallery Selena Gomez
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What safe pennystocks brokers can you guys recommend? (Only the ones where you have actually withdrawn profits count)
Hi guys! :)
I believe this is a good question for anyone who's new, especially coming from Europe, as we can't use WeBull or Robinhood, which I believe work pretty safe under all the regulations and after I've seen so many of you guys using them (though that doesn't guarantee you were able to easily withdraw profits still).
I've been digging in some of the old posts but I am very anxious about starting an account with brokers such as:
TD Ameritrade
Plus500
Interactive Brokersetc.
A quick search gives me results such as:
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/finance/ameritrade.html
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-reviews/5759/www.tdameritrade.com-stock-broker
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-reviews/3696/www.thinkorswim.com
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-reviews/113/interactivebrokers-stock-broker
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-reviews/5374/plus500.com-forex-brokers
https://www.productreview.com.au/listings/plus500
and the list could go on and on when it comes to brokers like those. I know these sites, especially Forex Peace Army, and these are mostly real opinions and reviews from real people who were scammed.
Thing is, in the past I used to work with the Prosecutor's Office and investigators on cases of brokerage scams, and plenty of such companies (even some of these I named) were also involved at times. I am really anxious about it as I can see everywhere people writing about playing against the brokers, so your loss is their gain clearly and I know some of the victims myself, who were simply scammed and robbed off of their hard-earned money, even life savings at times.
I've been trading normal stocks through my brokerage account at my bank in Poland, but I have no idea how can I safely trade pennystocks like you guys and be sure that if I actually become successful I am not going to be denied by the brokerage company that is going to come up with hundreds of excuses, technical problems, delays, questions for documents and verification, not replying etc. in order not to let a withdrawal go through. I know this all too well.
Can you guys recommend any legitimate brokers that are regulated by SEC or other financial authorities in the US for a non-US citizen? I don't trust CySEC, ASIC etc. - these guys are paid to give out licenses to anyone who pays well, so that's not safe at all, especially CySEC. Look how proud they were of IronFX in the past.
I will really appreciate any answers I can get :)
Thanks!
submitted by Cincrator to pennystocks [link] [comments]
My First Year of Trading
So here it is, three more days and October begins, which marks one year of trading for me. I figured I would contribute to the forum and share some of my experience, a little about me, and what I've learned so far. Whoever wants to listen, that's great. This might get long so buckle up..
Three years ago, I was visiting Toronto. I don't get out much, but my roommate at the time travels there occasionally. He asked everyone at our place if we wanted to come along for a weekend. My roommate has an uncle that lives there and we didn't have to worry about a hotel because his uncle owns a small house that's unlived in which we could stay at. I was the only one to go with. Anyways, we walk around the city, seeing the sights and whatnot.
My friend says to me "where next?"
"I don't know, you're the tour guide"
"We can go check out Bay Street"
"what's 'Bay Street?'"
"It's like the Canadian Wall street! If you haven't seen it you gotta see it!"
Walking along Bay, I admire all the nice buildings and architecture, everything seems larger than life to me. I love things like that. The huge granite facades with intricate designs and towering pillars to make you think, How the fuck did they make that? My attention pivots to a man walking on the sidewalk opposite us. His gait stood out among everyone, he walked with such a purpose.. He laughed into the cell phone to his ear. In the elbow-shoving city environment, he moved with a stride that exuded a power which not only commanded respect, but assumed it. I bet HE can get a text back, hell he's probably got girls waiting on him. This dude was dressed to kill, a navy suit that you could just tell from across the street was way out of my budget, it was a nice fucking suit. I want that. His life, across the street, seemed a world a way from my own. I've worn a suit maybe twice in my life. For my first communion, it was too big for me, I was eleven or whatever so who gives a shit, right? I'm positive I looked ridiculous. The other time? I can't remember.
I want that. I want the suit. I want the wealth, the independence. I want the respect and power, and I don't give a shit what anyone thinks about it.
Cue self doubt.
Well, He's probably some rich banker's son. That's a world you're born into. I don't know shit about it. \sigh* keep walking..*
A year later, I'm visiting my parents at their house, they live an hour away from my place. My dad is back from Tennessee, his engineering job was laying people off and he got canned... Or he saw the end was near and just left... I don't know, hard to pay attention to the guy honestly because he kind of just drones on and on. ("Wait, so your mom lives in Michigan, but your dad moved to Tennessee... for a job?" Yea man, I don't fucking know, not going to touch on that one.) The whole project was a shit show that was doomed to never get done, the way he tells it. And he's obviously jaded from multiple similar experiences at other life-sucking engineer jobs. My mom is a retired nurse practitioner who no longer works because of her illness. I ask him what he's doing for work now and he tells me he trades stocks from home. I didn't even know you could do that. I didn't know "trading" was a thing. I thought you just invest and hope for the best.
"Oh that's cool, how much money do you need to do that?"
"Ehh, most say you need at least $25,000 as a minimum"
"Oh... guess I can't do that..."
Six months later, I get a call and it's my dad. We talk a little about whatever. Off topic, he starts asking if I'm happy doing what I'm doing (I was a painter, commercial and residential) I tell him yes but it's kind of a pain in the ass and I don't see it as a long term thing. Then he gets around to asking if I'd like to come work with him. He basically pitches it to me. I'm not one to be sold on something, I'm always skeptical. So I ask all the questions that any rational person would ask and he just swats them away with reassuring phrases. He was real confident about it. But basically he says for this to work, I have to quit my job and move back home so he can teach me how to trade and be by my side so I don't do anything stupid. "My Name , you can make so much money." I say that I can't raise the $25,000 because I'm not far above just living paycheck to paycheck. "I can help you out with that." Wow, okay, well... let me think about it.
My "maybe" very soon turned into a "definitely." So over the next six months, I continue to work my day job painting, and I try to save up what I could for the transition (it wasn't a whole lot, I sucked at saving. I was great at spending though!). My dad gives me a book on day trading (which I will mention later) and I teach myself what I can about the stock market using Investopedia. Also in the meantime, my dad sends me encouraging emails. He tells me to think of an annual income I would like to make as a trader, and used "more than $100,000 but less than a million" as a guideline. He tells me about stocks that he traded that day or just ones that moved and describes the basic price action and the prices to buy and sell at. Basically saying "if you bought X amount of shares here and sold it at X price here, you could make a quick 500 bucks!" I then use a trading sim to trade those symbols and try to emulate what he says. Piece of cake. ;)
Wow, that's way more than what I make in a day.
He tells me not to tell anyone about my trading because most people just think it's gambling. "Don't tell your Mom either." He says most people who try this fail because they don't know how to stop out and take a loss. He talks about how every day he was in a popular chatroom, some noob would say something like, "Hey guys, I bought at X price (high of day or thereabout), my account is down 80% .. uhh I'm waiting for it to come back to my entry price.. what do I do??"
Well shit, I'm not that fucking dumb. If that's all it takes to make it is to buy low, sell high, and always respect a stop then I'll be fantastic.
By the end of September, I was very determined. I had been looking forward everyday to quitting my painting job because while it used to be something I loved, it was just sucking the life out of me at this point. Especially working commercial, you just get worked like a dog. I wasn't living up to my potential with that job and I felt awful for it every minute of every day. I knew that I needed a job where I could use my brain instead of slaving my body to fulfill someone else's dream. "Someone's gotta put gas in the boss's boat" That's a line my buddy once said that he probably doesn't know sticks with me to this day.
It ain't me.
So now it was October 2018, and I'm back living with Mom n' Pops. I was so determined that on my last day of work I gave away all of my painting tools to my buddy like, "here, I don't need this shit." Moving out of my rental was easy because I don't own much, 'can't take it with ya.' Excited for the future I now spend my days bundled up in winter wear in the cold air of our hoarder-like basement with a space heater at my feet. My laptop connected to a TV monitor, I'm looking at stocks next to my dad and his screens in his cluttered corner. Our Trading Dungeon. I don't trade any money, (I wasn't aware of any real-time sim programs) I just watch and learn from my dad. Now you've got to keep in mind, and look at a chart of the S&P, this is right at the beginning of Oct '18, I came in right at the market top. Right at the start of the shit-show. For the next three or four weeks, I watch my dad pretty much scratch on every trade, taking small loss after small loss, and cursing under his breath at the screen.
Click.
"dammit."
Click.
"shit."
Click. Click.
"you fuck."
Click.
This gets really fucking annoying as time goes on, for weeks, and I get this attitude like ugh, just let me do it. I'll make us some fucking money. So I convince him to let me start trading live. I didn't know anything about brokers so I set up an account using his broker, which was Fidelity. It was a pain and I had to jump through a lot of hoops to be able to day trade with this broker. I actually had to make a joint account with my dad as I couldn't get approved for margin because my credit score is shit (never owned a credit card) and my net worth, not much. Anyways, they straight up discourage day trading and I get all kinds of warning messages with big red letters that made me shit myself like oooaaahhh what the fuck did I do now. Did I forget to close a position?? Did I fat finger an order? Am I now in debt for thousands of dollars to Fidelity?? They're going to come after me like they came after Madoff. Even after you are approved for PDT you still get these warning messages in your account. Some would say if I didn't comply with "whatever rule" they'd even suspend my account for 60 days. It was ridiculous, hard to describe because it doesn't make sense, and it took the support guy on the phone a good 20 minutes to explain it to me. Basically I got the answer "yea it's all good, you did nothing wrong. As long as you have the cash in your account to cover whatever the trade balance was" So I just kept getting these warnings that I had to ignore everyday. I hate Fidelity.
My fist day trading, I made a few so-so trades and then I got impatient. I saw YECO breaking out and I chased, soon realized I chased, so I got out. -$500. Shit, I have to make that back, I don't want my dad to see this. Got back in. Shit. -$400. So my first day trading, I lost $900. My dumbass was using market orders so that sure didn't help. I reeled the risk back and traded more proper position size for a while, but the commissions for a round trip are $10, so taking six trades per day, I'm losing $60 at a minimum on top of my losing trades. Quickly I realized I didn't know what the hell I was doing. What about my dad? Does HE know? One day, in the trading dungeon, I was frustrated with the experience I'd been having and just feeling lost overall. I asked him.
"So, are you consistently profitable?"
"mmm... I do alright."
"Yea but like, are you consistently profitable over time?"
.........................
"I do alright."
Silence.
"Do you know any consistently profitable traders?"
"Well the one who wrote that book I gave you, Tina Turner.. umm and there's Ross Cameron"
......................
"So you don't know any consistently profitable traders, personally.. People who are not trying to sell you something?"
"no."
...................
Holy fucking shit, what did this idiot get me into. He can't even say it to my face and admit it.
This entire life decision, quitting my job, leaving my rental, moving from my city to back home, giving shit away, it all relied on that. I was supposed to be an apprentice to a consistently profitable day trader who trades for a living. It was so assumed, that I never even thought to ask! Why would you tell your son to quit his job for something that you yourself cannot do? Is this all a scam? Did my dad get sold a DREAM? Did I buy into some kind of ponzi scheme? How many of those winning trades he showed me did he actually take? Are there ANY consistently profitable DAY TRADERS who TRADE FOR A LIVING? Why do 90% fail? Is it because the other 10% are scamming the rest in some way? Completely lost, I just had no clue what was what. If I was going to succeed at this, if it was even possible to succeed at this, it was entirely up to me. I had to figure it out. I still remember the feeling like an overwhelming, crushing weight on me as it all sunk in. This is going to be a big deal.. I'm not the type to give up though. In that moment, I said to myself,
I'm going to fucking win at this. I don't know if this is possible, but I'm going to find out. I cannot say with certainty that I will succeed, but no matter what, I will not give up. I'm going to give all of myself to this. I will find the truth.
It was a deep moment for me. I don't like getting on my soapbox, but when I said those things, I meant it. I really, really meant it. I still do, and I still will.
Now it might seem like I'm being hard on my dad. He has done a lot for me and I am very grateful for that. We're sarcastic as hell to each other, I love the bastard. Hell, I wouldn't have the opportunity to trade at all if not for him. But maybe you can also understand how overwhelmed I felt at that time. Not on purpose, of course he means well. But I am not a trusting person at all and I was willing to put trust into him after all the convincing and was very disappointed when I witnessed the reality of the situation. I would have structured this transition to trading differently, you don't just quit your job and start trading. Nobody was there to tell me that! I was told quite the opposite. I'm glad it happened anyway, so fuck it. I heard Kevin O'Leary once say,
"If I knew in the beginning how difficult starting a business was, I don't know that I ever would've started."
This applies very much to my experience.
So what did I do? Well like everyone I read and read and Googled and Youtube'd my ass off. I sure as hell didn't pay for a course because I didn't have the money and I'm like 99% sure I would be disappointed by whatever they were teaching as pretty much everything can be found online or in books for cheap or free. Also I discovered Thinkorswim and I used that to sim trade in real-time for three months. This is way the hell different than going on a sim at 5x speed and just clicking a few buy and sell buttons. Lol, useless. When you sim trade in real-time you're forced to have a routine, and you're forced to experience missing trades with no chance to rewind or skip the boring parts. That's a step up because you're "in it". I also traded real money too, made some, lost more than I made. went back to sim. Traded live again, made some but lost more, fell back to PDT. Dad fronted me more cash. This has happened a few times. He's dug me out of some holes because he believes in me. I'm fortunate.
Oh yeah, about that book my dad gave me. It's called A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online by Toni Turner. This book... is shit. This was supposed to be my framework for how to trade and I swear it's like literally nothing in this book fucking works lol. I could tell this pretty early on, intuitively, just by looking at charts. It's basically a buy-the-breakout type strategy, if you want to call it a strategy. No real methodology to anything just vague crap and showing you cherry-picked charts with entries that are way too late. With experience in the markets you will eventually come to find that MOST BREAKOUTS FAIL. It talks about support/resistance lines and describes them as, "picture throwing a ball down at the floor, it bounces up and then it bounces down off the ceiling, then back up." So many asinine assumptions. These ideas are a text book way of how to trade like dumb money. Don't get me wrong, these trades can work but you need to be able to identify the setups which are more probable and identify reasons not to take others. So I basically had to un-learn all that shit.
Present day, I have a routine in place. I'm out of the dungeon and trade by myself in my room. I trade with a discount broker that is catered to day traders and doesn't rape me on commissions. My mornings have a framework for analyzing the news and economic events of the particular day, I journal so that I can recognize what I'm doing right and where I need to improve. I record my screens for later review to improve my tape reading skills. I am actually tracking my trades now and doing backtesting in equities as well as forex. I'm not a fast reader but I do read a lot, as much as I can. So far I have read about 17-18 books on trading and psychology. I've definitely got a lot more skilled at trading.
As of yet I am not net profitable. Writing that sounds like selling myself short though, honestly. Because a lot of my trades are very good and are executed well. I have talent. However, lesser quality trades and trades which are inappropriately sized/ attempted too many times bring down that P/L. I'm not the type of trader to ignore a stop, I'm more the trader that just widdles their account down with small losses. I trade live because at this point, sim has lost its value, live trading is the ultimate teacher. So I do trade live but I just don't go big like I did before, I keep it small.
I could show you trades that I did great on and make people think I'm killing it but I really just don't need the validation. I don't care, I'm real about it. I just want to get better. I don't need people to think I'm a genius, I'm just trying to make some money.
Psychologically, to be honest with you, I currently feel beaten down and exhausted. I put a lot of energy into this, and sometimes I work myself physically sick, it's happened multiple times. About once a week, usually Saturday, I get a headache that lasts all day. My body's stress rebound mechanism you might call it. Getting over one of those sick periods now, which is why I barely even traded this week. I know I missed a lot of volatility this week and some A+ setups but I really just don't give a shit lol. I just currently don't have the mental capital, I think anyone who's been day trading every day for a year or more can understand what I mean by that. I'm still being productive though. Again, I'm not here to present an image of some badass trader, just keeping it real. To give something 100% day after day while receiving so much resistance, it takes a toll on you. So a break is necessary to avoid making bad trading decisions. That being said, I'm progressing more and more and eliminating those lesser quality trades and identifying my bad habits. I take steps to control those habits and strengthen my good habits such as having a solid routine, doing review and market research, taking profits at the right times, etc.
So maybe I can give some advice to some that are new to day trading, those who are feeling lost, or just in general thinking "...What the fuck..." I thought that every night for the first 6 months lol.
First of all, manage expectations. If you read my story of how I came to be a trader, you can see I had a false impression of trading in many aspects. Give yourself a realistic time horizon to how progress should be made. Do not set a monetary goal for yourself, or any time-based goal that is measured in your P/L. If you tell yourself, "I want to make X per day, X per week, or X per year" you're setting yourself up to feel like shit every single day when it's clear as the blue sky that you won't reach that goal anytime soon. As a matter of fact, it will appear you are moving further AWAY from that goal if you just focus on your P/L, which brings me to my next point.
You will lose money. In the beginning, most likely, you will lose money. I did it, you'll do it, the greatest Paul Tudor Jones did it. Trading is a skill that needs to be developed, and it is a process. Just look at it as paying your tuition to the market. Sim is fine but don't assume you have acquired this skill until you are adept at trading real money. So when you do make that leap, just trade small.
Just survive. Trade small. get the experience. Protect your capital. To reach break even on your bottom line is a huge accomplishment. In many ways, experience and screen time are the secret sauce.
Have a routine. This is very important. I actually will probably make a more in-depth post in the future about this if people want it. When I first started, I was overwhelmed with the feeling "What the fuck am I supposed to DO?" I felt lost. There's no boss to tell you how to be productive or how to find the right stocks, which is mostly a blessing, but a curse for new traders.
All that shit you see, don't believe all that bullshit. You know what I'm talking about. The bragposting, the clickbait Youtube videos, the ads preying on you. "I made X amount of money in a day and I'm fucking 19 lolz look at my Lamborghini" It's all a gimmick to sell you the dream. It's designed to poke right at your insecurities, that's marketing at it's finest. As for the bragposting on forums honestly, who cares. And I'm not pointing fingers on this forum, just any trading forum in general. They are never adding anything of value to the community in their posts. They never say this is how I did it. No, they just want you to think they're a genius. I can show you my $900 day trading the shit out of TSLA, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Gamblers never show you when they lose, you might never hear from those guys again because behind the scenes, they over-leveraged themselves and blew up. Some may actually be consistently profitable and the trades are 100% legit. That's fantastic. But again, I don't care, and you shouldn't either. You shouldn't compare yourself to others.
"Everyone's a genius in a bull market" Here's the thing.. Markets change. Edges disappear. Trading strategies were made by traders who traded during times when everything they did worked. Buy all the breakouts? Sure! It's the fucking tech bubble! Everything works! I'm sure all those typical setups used to work fantastically at some point in time. But the more people realize them, the less effective they are. SOMEONE has to be losing money on the opposite side of a winning trade, and who's willing to do that when the trade is so obvious? That being said, some things are obvious AND still work. Technical analysis works... sometimes. The caveat to that is, filters. You need to, in some way, filter out certain setups from others. For example, you could say, "I won't take a wedge pattern setup on an intraday chart unless it is in a higher time frame uptrend, without nearby resistance, and trading above average volume with news on that day."
Have a plan. If you can't describe your plan, you don't have one. Think in probabilities. You should think entirely in "if, then" scenarios. If X has happens, then Y will probably happen. "If BABA breaks this premarket support level on the open I will look for a pop up to short into."
Backtest. Most traders lose mainly because they think they have an edge but they don't. You read these books and all this stuff online telling you "this is a high probability setup" but do you know that for a fact? There's different ways to backtest, but I think the best way for a beginner is manual backtesting with a chart and an excel sheet. This builds up that screen time and pattern recognition faster. This video shows how to do that. Once I saw someone do it, it didn't seem so boring and awful as I thought it was.
Intelligence is not enough. You're smarter than most people, that's great, but that alone is not enough to make you money in trading necessarily. Brilliant people try and fail at this all the time, lawyers, doctors, surgeons, engineers.. Why do they fail if they're so smart? It's all a fucking scam. No, a number of reasons, but the biggest is discipline and emotional intelligence.
Journal every day. K no thanks, bro. That's fucking gay. That's how I felt when I heard this advice but really that is pride and laziness talking. This is the process you need to do to learn what works for you and what doesn't. Review the trades you took, what your plan was, what actually happened, how you executed. Identify what you did well and what you can work on. This is how you develop discipline and emotional intelligence, by monitoring yourself. How you feel physically and mentally, and how these states affect your decision-making.
Always be learning. Read as much as you can. Good quality books. Here's the best I've read so far;
Market Wizards -Jack Schwager
One Good Trade -Mike Bellafiore
The Daily Trading Coach -Bret Steenbarger
Psycho-cybernetics -Maxwell Maltz
Why You Win or Lose -Fred Kelly
The Art and Science of Technical Analysis -Adam Grimes
Dark Pools -Scott Patterson
Be nimble. Everyday I do my research on the symbols I'm trading and the fundamental news that's driving them. I might be trading a large cap that's gapping up with a beat on EPS and revenue and positive guidance. But if I see that stock pop up and fail miserably on the open amidst huge selling pressure, and I look and see the broader market tanking, guess what, I'm getting short, and that's just day trading. The movement of the market, on an intraday timeframe, doesn't have to make logical sense.
Adapt. In March I used to be able to buy a breakout on a symbol and swing it for the majority of the day. In the summer I was basically scalping on the open and being done for the day. Volatility changes, and so do my profit targets.
Be accountable. Be humble. Be honest. I take 100% responsibility for every dime I've lost or made in the market. It's not the market makers fault, it wasn't the HFTs, I pressed the button. I know my bad habits and I know my good habits.. my strengths/ my weaknesses.
Protect yourself from toxicity. Stay away from traders and people on forums who just have that negative mindset. That "can't be done" mentality. Day trading is a scam!! It can certainly be done. Prove it, you bastard. I'm posting to this particular forum because I don't see much of that here and apparently the mods to a good job of not tolerating it. As the mod wrote in the rules, they're most likely raging from a loss. Also, the Stocktwits mentality of "AAPL is going to TANK on the open! $180, here we come. $$$" , or the grandiose stories, "I just knew AMZN was going to go up on earnings. I could feel it. I went ALL IN. Options money, baby! ka-ching!$" Lol, that is so toxic to a new trader. Get away from that. How will you be able to remain nimble when this is your thought process?
Be good to yourself. Stop beating yourself up. You're an entrepreneur. You're boldly going where no man has gone before. You've got balls.
Acknowledge your mistakes, don't identify with them. You are not your mistakes and you are not your bad habits. These are only things that you do, and you can take action necessary to do them less.
It doesn't matter what people think. Maybe they think you're a fool, a gambler. You don't need their approval. You don't need to talk to your co-workers and friends about it to satisfy some subconscious plea for guidance; is this a good idea?
You don't need anyone's permission to become the person you want to be.
They don't believe in you? Fuck 'em. I believe in you.
submitted by indridcold91 to Daytrading [link] [comments]
Getting into Stock Options (Canadian)
Hey guys, I am looking into getting into Stock Options as I want to one day make a full time income trading. I have tried daytrading stocks and found that was not enjoyable. Also have tried forex trading but felt like I was constantly losing no matter what strategy I was using. I like being able to formulate a strategy over a number of days. I watched all of tastytrades videos and am going over Option Alpha now for more review.
Going to need to open a TD Direct Investing account here in Canada because I want to use the thinkorswim platform. Any Canadian options traders here?
Do you guys have any tips/recommendations for me as I get started? I know any sort of trading is not easy and takes time and alot of work.
submitted by mattyp93 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Beginners start here
Hey everyone. A while back I made the decision to moderate this subreddit because I was once in your shoes. I honestly did not know where to begin. I would type in “daytrading” in google and come up with so many companies trying to sell me the dream. “Make $$$ while you sleep!” “Look at how much I made today!!” etc. I wanted to make this post to first give new people a place where to start and to even offer some resources that can get you started in the right direction. If I have anything else to add I will add it here.
Open up a papertrading account with Think or Swim. It is free and you can get live data just by requesting it from support. All you have to do is ask them to add live data to your papertrading account. Do not pay monthly for any papertrading account. There are a lot of free videos out there that can help you get started with Think or Swim. The program looks complicated at first but it is very powerful. I spent a few days with the program and at the end of the week I was fairly comfortable with understanding where everything was. I have never had a 60-day limit with my papertrading account by the way. https://www.thinkorswim.com/t/pm-registration.html Start here and start taking trades! It is all fake money and will give you some insight into how the program works as well as how the markets move.
One other tip for setting up your papertrading account is to only set it up with a reasonable amount of money. I know a lot of papertrading accounts give you 100k right off the bat but realistically, how many of us are going to have that much money to start out with? Set it to something more reasonable like 10-20k if you are trading forex (or even less if all you have is 1-5k to trade with) or 25k+ if you are going to daytrade stocks only because the regulations require you to have at least 25k in your account at all times to daytrade (In this case, I would probably give yourself 30k just to be safe).
If you are looking for a stock screener, ThinkorSwim has a pretty good one. A personal favorite of mine is www.FINVIZ.com which has an awesome screener for finding different chart patterns and conditions (such as prices crossing above 20 bar EMA, trending up, etc)
Think or Swim has stocks, forex, futures, and options. Options are an entirely different beast all together but stocks, forex, and futures are all "yes-no" type of trading while options give you a little more leeway with your mistakes. If you are interested in learning about options, message me and I can help guide you with the right direction and best resources I used to learn options.
EDIT: Due to the amount of PM's I was getting, I have decided to post the options course I started with here https://www.udemy.com/learn-options-trading-courses/ You shouldn't pay more than 10 bucks for it as Udemy does a ton of sales throughout the year. You can also just do a "Udemy coupon" search on google and see what you pull up. Its about 10 hours worth of content and in my opinion it is worth every penny if you are wanting to learn more about options. There are a ton of other great classes on Udemy as well for learning just about anything. Just make sure to read the reviews!
Stocks is kind of the well known market for new comers but I would argue that Forex can also just as easily be traded by a newcomer. Also the benefit of trading Forex is that there is no commission off the bat. Most brokers will charge what is called a spread of some number of pips that you are essentially paying back.
Futures trade in ticks and each tick nets you a gain of some amount or a loss of some amount so I do not suggest any new person to jump into futures until you understand the way markets work. Futures charge commission on each contract you buy or sell. It can be sort of related to Forex since a tick and a pip are essentially the same.
The huge benefit to trading Futures and Forex is that there is NO pattern day trading rule. This means you can buy and sell as many times as you want without being flagged for not having 25k in your account.
Tradimo is a great resource for getting your feet wet with technical analysis. It is free and shows you the ropes with how you can start looking at prices and charts: https://learn.tradimo.com/courses
If there is ever a company you want to pay to help you learn, please do your research first. Type in the company’s name along with “review” at the end of your search and make your educated decision off of that. A lot of these companies have amazing advertising but will never teach you the right way to trade. A lot of them are scams too. I read that there was one trading system which the guy had the secrets of the “code of trading” and only he knew the code but would sell it to you for hundreds of dollars. So many people come into trading with high expectations that if I just pay this company to teach me, I can be like them when in reality that may never happen. Always look at their testimonials with a grain of salt. Read the reviews just like you would on amazon for buying a product. I also like to type in the company's name and add "scam" at the end to see if I get any hits on that. Read the good reviews but also the bad to understand the bigger picture here. Very few will actually teach you how to trade. Also, Reddit is a great place to read up on things like this too. Just add "Reddit" at the end of your search and read up on other users reviews.
Investimonials is also a good place to use as well (but do not use it as your only review source!!! Fake reviews are everywhere) http://www.investimonials.com So before you drop that 1-2k on a course, make sure you do your homework. Don't be fooled by smooth advertising.
A high probability indicator or a holy grail strategy is not out there. If it was, everyone would be using it and making money. And if there does happen to be one, do you really think anyone will want to share it? The only way to get good at trading is to be able to read the charts and read where prices are going. This is through support and resistance and understanding channels. I cannot recommend Mack’s price action YouTube channel enough. https://www.youtube.com/usePATsTrading I am a firm believer that price action is the basis for understanding price movement. Reading an indicator may help but you should not rely on solely indicators to guide you with trading as they may give you a signal to buy when you are at a major resistance level or sell when you are at a major support, both of which could burn you.
My only other advice is to look into markets that let you maximize profits. For some, it is not possible to buy 1000 shares of Apple. While trading low priced stocks lets you buy hundreds and maybe even thousands of shares at once, those stocks are too unpredictable because they can be influenced by individuals who do what is called a "pump and dump" schemes. Plus they can be difficult to read as far as what they are going to be doing next (going up or going down). My recommendation (and it is only my recommendation so only use this as guidance to make your own decision) would be to look into trading forex if you do not have a lot to start out with as some brokers (like FXCM) allow you to buy "micro" lots which let you invest as little as 100 dollars in some cases and have a much better chance of working in your favor due to the amount of people trading the same instrument. Note: There are some discussions about forex market makers adjusting the markets so you get stopped out prematurely. While I have not experienced this, it could theoretically happen? So if you do decide to trade Forex make sure you pick your broker carefully and again read the reviews!
EDIT: I have read that what I mentioned above about Forex is outdated and the brokers are under stricter regulations. Do your own investigation and do not let what I said steer you away from trading forex if you really want to. The big Forex brokers you are able to open an account with in the US are FXCM, Oanda, and Forex.com. You have a lot more options if you are in another country.
EDIT 2: Well it looks like FXCM may get banned from having clients in the US. Apparently they took some trades against their clients to profit on their end and have been using clients accounts to fund their extra expenses. Tread on your own risk.
Above all, do not invest money that you are not willing to lose. I cannot emphasize this enough. Work on a simulator until you feel that your strategy works. This means putting in the time to sit down and analyze every trade you took which worked as well as the ones that didn't work. You need to go back over your mistakes and review why your trade did not work the way you thought it would. Was it because you bought at a high and sold at a low? Was it because you bought at a major resistance level thinking the stock would still go up? Was it because you were impulsive and entered in too early? Was it because you were too slow and entered in too late? This is the most important part about learning how to trade. Putting in the time and work to analyze what you did right and what you did wrong. You will never get better if you do not do this.
Consider subscribing to a free daily financial newsletter such as The Morning Brew. It’s a free subscription that is delivered Monday through Friday to your email before the markets open around 5-6 am central time. It summarizes the big financial topics of the morning in short easy to read sections that you can read over a cup of brew.
I wouldn’t say this is essential for daytrading but it’s nice to read if you are wanting to stay up to date on the financial markets as they will write about companies and stocks to look out for. It’s also not spammy or filled with ads though there are one or two that are listed as “sponsored”. They don’t typically put out a weekend read but instead send it M-F.
https://www.morningbrew.com/?kid=08944ba0
I want to make this subreddit not only as a resource for newcomers but also for those who wish to improve their skills with learning how to day trade. I do not want this subreddit to become spam and companies trying to sell dreams. We all need to keep a realistic vision on what learning the market entails because this is a journey. No one becomes a doctor in a day or even a week and you should expect the same becoming a trader. Making consistent money in the markets can be very challenging and most wont ever make it, but it can be very satisfying once things start to click and you can live a very different life if this ever happens.
submitted by KingPrudien to Daytrading [link] [comments]
[FREE] Learn to Day Trade [FOR BEGINNERS]
Hello everyone,
I am new to Reddit. I am a successful part-time trader. I trade based off of both technicals and fundamentals. I have maintained a weekly return of just below 20% every week in my trading portfolio on my day trades and swing trades. In addition, on occasion, I do FOREX and options.
I started out using a small sum of money and gradually grew it into a large portfolio over the years. I am looking to help the people who are often told "you don't have enough money to begin trading," "you need at least $1,000 to begin trading," etc. In reality, in today's day in age, you can begin trading with less than $100, you just have to be realistic about how fast you can grow that sum of money into huge returns. If people say you need more than $100 to begin trading, they probably are unsuccessful traders.
I want to pass on the knowledge I learned over the years in the market to help make new traders successful. I am willing to teach a handful of people a comprehensive overview of everything you need to know to be a successful day trader. I am doing this for FREE, I will NOT monetize any part of this program. I will NOT cover anything related to FOREX or options because these are for advanced traders.
I will teach via live stream in groups and record these live streams for your review (live stream dates not planned as of yet). The reason I want to do live streams is so you can have your questions answered in real-time, increasing your comprehension and overall success. In addition, I plan on creating a group chat and voice chat group so I can communicate with the group on a regular basis. Email will also be another way of contacting me with questions. Eventually I will create a website if the program is a success.
The platform I will use to each everyone will principally be TD Ameritrade's ThinkorSwim Platform. This software is FREE and you can download it from TD Ameritrade's website. This platform is 100% FREE to use. TD Ameritrade does NOT have to be your broker, I just teach using their software. I personally DON'T use TD Ameritrade as my broker, but I use their ThinkorSwim platform usually. For your actual broker, feel free to use any broker you want. If you don't have a broker, you can contact me and I can provide a comparison of all the popular brokers.
If you want to me to teach you how to trade you must do the following:
-Follow my lectures and ask questions. My goal is to pass on my knowledge and create other successful traders, this is not possible if you take shortcuts. If you do not put in 100% you will be wasting your time and my time and I will kick you out of the group. -Not expect me to tell you which companies to invest in, at what price, and what time to exit the trade. I will teach you everything you need to know, but I won't help people who are just looking for a successful trader's positions. I will live stream some of my positions after you demonstrate you are making an effort to learn. -Never invest in anything you don't know. Always do your own due diligence! -Post on this thread saying, "I have read your entire post." (so I know you read everything) -Lastly, PM me why you want to learn to trade and what you will do to ensure you are successful. Feel free to include any other information, but please limit your message to under 500 characters.
I am only accepting a select amount of beginners in this program because I want it to be different than other programs. I will decide who gets in the program based on your reason for why you want to trade and why you think you will be successful at trading. I do not have an exact limit of the number of beginners I will accept to start with but it will be under 30.
submitted by EBITDAoverNI to DayTradng [link] [comments]
Musings about the stock market
Just my thoughts about the market.... https://youtu.be/0yJ93TcpXiM Inspired by the late David Elliot aka FirstWave.
A video of 20 minutes of me rambling about the stock market.
I'm considering doing more of these videos, but really don't know if there are many people that would be interested in them. This video is a broad overview of the market in a longer term sense, but I can do intraday analysis as well and look at shorter term trade opportunities. In this video I only talk about the S&P 500. If anybody has any interest in more specific content, let me know. I can look at pretty much any index, stock, futures contract, or forex contract. Please like and subscribe to my youtube channel if you're interested so I know to post more stuff. If nobody is interested, then I'm not going to pollute the internet with more of my blabbering.
About myself... I studied David Elliot's trading method meticulously before he passed away. He used to have a chat room on the thinkorswim platform, and also had a private live trade room during the day where he mentored students. David was passionate about the market and provided tons of free mentoring to the world in regards to technical analysis. I had the privilege of being in his trade room and following his trades in real time for a couple months and learned quite a bit from him. I want to carry on his tradition of sharing knowledge about the market and cultivating a group of like minded technical traders. He used proprietary indicators, some of which are available for free through thinkorswim. I use some of those as well as his "Hinge" indicator which isn't widely available. My goal is to post daily market reviews for a broad subscriber base and - optimistically - I would like to host a live trade room where we trade futures and / or options.
submitted by dausly to StockMarket [link] [comments]
Adding to a prospective traders training plan
To the Stock sub, yes I read the wiki, I have been increasingly more interested in the financial markets and learning how to trade. I've been reading a ton on a ton, sometimes it feels like there is so much information it can start to become overwhelming. Sometimes I don't know where to start, and sometimes I don't know where to stop. This is an immense project for anyone to start, and to the people who have 'made it'(everyone has their own definition of success' I have a tremendous amount of respect for you. It seems that, day trading, intraday trading etc. are minimized to, it's basically gambling and if you dump money in the stock market you're an idiot. I once did also subscribe to that ideology and now I realize I probably should have focused on that instead of partying with friends and making some bad decisions, but the wisest of men were once the greatest of fools said a smart guy one time, I think. Anyway just some background, I am in my early 20's and am assigned as an air traffic controller in a branch of the american military. I just developed a rough 'training plan' to get myself on the right track to being fiscally adept. The reason why I am posting is to search for some wisdom from the elders, someone that will take some time to just sift through a couple of my talking points to add or subtract some of my basic ideas, and basically just guide me in the right direction. It doesn't make much sense to go into these things blindly, especially with an area of study a whole career field is designed around. I want to develop a rough map / curriculum to follow for myself, and to try to measure any indicators (no pun intended) of progress. But I am just a beginner, so why not post this on reddit? If anyone has any tips, something to add, something to subtract, that's why this is here. I'll be around to answer any questions for the next hour or so, then I can pickup tomorrow. I'm hoping we as a community can come together with something to give to a beginner like me, with this being the beginning
LINK TO GOOGLE DOCS -- HAS MORE CORRECT FORMATTING https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTf0MMvFWdrvFlz_k-ruDuMABjaJEeZ5Aed07xEnEMI/edit?usp=sharing
My motivation – 1. So I can give family, friends and myself a life without worry. So, we have more time to focus on building meaningful experiences and forming a strong relationship with each other. 2. If profitable enough, to donate to cancer research to hopefully one-day cure cancer, more specifically, malignant brain cancers. 3. To have financial freedom. 4. To build wealth for myself and future generations of my family, regardless if it is my own kin. 5. To challenge myself. How I am doing this? Adopting a mix of education, research and simulated training I hope that by the end of CY18 I can have a small account funded 1500-3000 for trading while also focusing on paying down debt.
Education and Research: Reading List 1. Security Analysis – a. To gain a fundamental basis to judge a stocks worth, it has great reviews and has been recommended on multiple different platforms as a must read, so I am must reading it b. This book will not relate to the trading strategy that will be adopted in the beginning to build greater wealth. However, I think this will become a staple of future trading strategies. This book is basically the polar opposite to speculative trading/investment which will comprise the trading the trading strategy used to develop the wealth needed to reach the 25k minimum needed to day trade. 2. Japanese candlestick charting techniques (JCCT)-- a. This book is allegedly a great source on learning candlestick patterns and learning technical analysis. b. The focus will be learning how to read charts quick and effectively, allowing me to draw reasonable and insightful conclusions on the potential movement on stock based on its price-action 3. Will add more to the list after I finish these, but as of now I have determined learning a mix between fundamental & technical analysis will keep me well rounded so I don’t tunnel vision one way of trading. The aim is to remain well rounded and not to rely on one skill too much.
Online resources – 1. Youtube a. Ricky Gutierrez – stocks b. Timothy Sykes – stocks c. The Duomo initiative – Forex d. Numerous other youtube sources 2. Babypips – Forex 3. Lehman Brothers “Foreign Exchange Training Manual” (Dekstop) 4. Reddit? 5. Will add more as they come Simulation— 1. Tradingview.com a. Good charts, great indicators, free ‘real-time’ data and awesome charting features available as well as an easy to use papertrading, seems like a good resource for FOREX/STOCKS b. 2. TD Ameritrades ThinkOrSwim (TOS) a. 60 day Demo account that I called and got real-time data, the closest thing to a real deal trading platform I can get my hands. Will probably keep trying to learn this and use it as my basis for learning how to execute trades in the FOREX and Equity Markets. b. When the demo account runs out, make a new one, call and get live data set to the account again 3. The criteria used for the trading software a. Don’t make a lot of trades, I want to focus on only taking trades based on as much calculated risk as I can possibly calculate b. Trade around the pattern day trader rule, as when it’s time to go live I want to be used to it. What this means for me, is only take 1 or 2 trades a week, and making them meaningful. c. Try to learn something from every trade I make, failure or success I want to know if it’s pure luck or calculated risk. i. IF it’s a failure, I want to analyze why it happened to the best of my ability. ii. If it’s a success, I want to analyze how it happened and try to really solidify the knowledge. d. Try to imagine the money in the paper trading account is as real as the money in my pocket. e. Don’t rush or force trades, wait for a good “set-up” or situation. Stick to my technical analysis tools/skills and adapt to changing situations based on news releases.
Training— 1. Read at least 30 minutes each day of either Security Analysis or JCCT 2. Use youtube, babypips, reddit or some other online resource to learn SOMETHING that day. I don’t care if I am rereading the Relative Strength Indicator equation, I will do some form of online research and make it meaningful or impactful in some way. 3. Using a simulation platform, most likely TOS, develop a strategy for taking trades during the week. Live by the criteria I set for myself. a. Use each blown up paper account as lesson. b. Stay focused and don’t get emotional c. Rome wasn’t built in a day. d. Go live when I win more than I lose, and am green for 4 months. 4. Don’t forget who I’m doing this for and why. To-Do list – 1. Compile a list of terms, phrases, vocabulary and indicators to define/research and call it homework 2. Find or develop a good trading journal that is designed around a specific strategy, and before I enter into any trade I can fill it in this journal and if it meets criteria it’s time to buy. 3. Make myself some form of “homework” at-least once a week and learn from it. 4. If everything works out remain humble and try to help others succeed also. Summary – The goal is through a mix of, foundational reading (Security Analysis, JCCT and others), online resources, and simulated trading I can go from someone with very low to almost no knowledge of financial markets to a profitable and successful trader in the next 6-24 months. Using realistic and measurable goals to gauge progress (how many books have I read since I set the curriculum? How am I doing papertrading? Am I staying focused? Am I too focused?) as well as always constantly reforming and changing the training plan to grow with me I think this is possible.
submitted by DrDewclaw to stocks [link] [comments]
Leading Review Websites About Thinkorswim Trading Platform "thinkorswim is a fun trading platform to use, with great mobile options. The fee schedule can get a bit confusing. But once you figure it out, you can choose the option that is best for you. We like the variety of mobile apps and that there is live chat support for accounts, trading ... Our detailed forex broker reviews include live testing commentary, trade platform analysis, spread and trading commission breakdowns, user account features, mobile trading apps, category rankings, high def screenshot galleries, and more FX related data. The TD Ameritrade thinkorswim® platform supports trading in stocks, futures, forex, mutual funds, ETFs, fixed-income, and ETFs at reasonable cost, and provides the most extensive range of tools, screeners, chart studies and scanners of any trading platform that we have reviewed. Overall, forex traders will find powerful charting capabilities alongside forex news headlines, and a platform rich with features when using thinkorswim at TD Ameritrade. Note: this review focuses on TD Ameritrade’s forex offering. I'm looking at two feeds for the currency pair AUD/USD, one from Thinkorswim, and the other from a dedicated Forex broker. Thinkorswim is missing the high low open data on my candles for the past 20 days, plus the data before that doesn't match. Turns out most of the pairs are presenting like this on TOS right now.
[index] [4075] [2885] [1331] [3797] [1503] [424] [3629] [3509] [2202] [4373]
Forex com Review 2020 - Pros and Cons Uncovered - YouTube
I've been trading Forex with TD Ameritrade since the beginning of the year. My experience so far has been good and bad with the good outweighing the bad by a... Options are not suitable for all investors as the special risks inherent to options trading may expose investors to potentially rapid and substantial losses.... In today's video I discuss the pros and cons of the platform thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade. I really like this platform for day trading and their advanced technology software. Let me know if you ... How to Use TD Ameritrade ThinkorSwim: Basic Overview Tutorial for Beginners In this tutorial, we are going to cover the basics of the ThinkOrSwim Platform to... 💰Learn from Jay💰 📊Jay's Beginner FX Course: https://www.jaypelle.net/forex-beginner 🤵Jay's Market Profile Course: https://jaypelle.net/advanced 🔐Jay's ...
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A place for redditors to discuss quantitative trading, statistical methods, econometrics, programming, implementation, automated strategies, and bounce ideas off each other for constructive criticism. Feel free to submit papers/links of things you find interesting.
[link]
I am currently happy with my Forex trading (examples in comments). I'm wanting to expand to stocks but I feel lost.
TL;DR I feel brand new to day trading anything other than currencies and I'm having trouble finding the right resources to get started. Help? Will trade answers regarding trend trading.
Hey folks,
I've been involved in Forex for about 6-7 years now. Light bulb moment happened right around 2 years ago and I'm content with the growth rate of my account since then. I trade very, very simply. I look for established trends on higher timeframes (8h, 12h, daily, weekly), wait for a pullback, and then enter with fib retracements and supp/resistance on what I perceive as momentum. The moving average serves no technical purpose. It's simply a different type of visual representation of price movement. There's nothing revolutionary here.
eurjpy example
https://preview.redd.it/hmko1b2t3id51.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=56ecf58261f211f7e7f6468507ce7a0edce779b3
audusd examples:
https://preview.redd.it/rkifv53v3id51.png?width=774&format=png&auto=webp&s=315f2b381c7240cbcc23f49944f356faa8d4c5ef
nzdcad
https://preview.redd.it/uuzcshs4aid51.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbf806a28f5fe2bddf5e630da7f7d3f744ee9084
I want to expand into day trading but again, I feel lost. Small cap? Large cap? Reading tape? Scrapers? Volume aggregation? stock scanning scripts? Runners? Bag holding? Apparently shorting is a big deal? Penny stocks compared to "normal" stocks? which brokers offer what? ALSO, some of these charts feel chaotic at best. The choppiness just appears unreal. Price action in Forex can be choppy, but at least it's "smooth" in the sense that price opens at the same price the previous candle closed at 99% of the time.
It doesn't really help that most of the youtube resources I've come across focus on getting rich quick, or aspects of trading that I do believe are important (psychology, money management, FOMO, indicators, etc.) but I do not need help with. I'm still improving, but I've got a solid grip on these aspects and they are not what I'm looking for. I guess what I'm looking for specifically is information on the nuances, technicals, vernacular, and details that are inherent in day trading stocks that don't exist in forex. Most of the stuff I listed in the above paragraph are accurate examples.
I have zero interest in scalping Forex. I'm active duty with a full time day job which is part of the reason I strictly trade higher time frames. I've also found that the manner in which I prefer to trade is more reliable at higher time frames. That being said I am interested in getting into stocks as well as Forex and will have the option to move to second shift and trade the morning bell and all the liquidity that comes with it in the next couple months. I'm looking to get educated in the interim. It's likely that I'll eventually move into long-term trading with stocks as well, but who knows.
Does anyone have any resources or suggestions for materials that touch on topics similar to what's listed above that they found helpful when first jumping in? I'm looking for the option to trade stocks, commodities, penny stocks, etc.
Oh, I currently trade with Oanda through Tradingview and I'm considering TDAmeritrade. I can get around the PDT rule but I'm not in a hurry and would probably like to start with penny stocks with something like $5-10k I think? The problem is I'm just unsure. My personal philosophy is that demo trading is useless after buttonology. Instead I have found that trading small amounts of real money provides much better results in the long term.
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Explosive Forex Trading with Live Forex Trading Examples
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[100% OFF] Explosive Forex Trading with Live Forex Trading Examples
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[Get] Winning Forex Trading with Live Forex Trading Examples
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[100% Off]| The complete forex trading course from scratch to professional (Step by step with live trading example) + Free Template✅ 3.90 (61 reviews)
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[100% Off]| Forex Trading With LIVE Account Examples of Forex Trading
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[100% Off]| Forex Trading With LIVE Account Examples of Forex Trading
submitted by sabsab99 to u/sabsab99 [link] [comments]
How People Are Making Money in 'Forex' These Days (Sadly)
I see this allllll the time on Instagram now, these snake oil salesmen running some sort of scam. Let me know what you think about this kind of thing, I could be off the mark and they might actually be amazing. But to me, it looks like complete BS. Here is an example: instagram(dot)com/milllsy?utm_source=ig_profile_share&igshid=13jhe1gtnfcfe
This started out as a jokey guide I wrote when bored, but it actually pisses me off how much I see this.
Step One: Pick a Niche and Set Up An Insta
Pick a niche first. Some examples are forex trading, dropshipping and binary options. Then create an Instagram account. Something like @dave_does_fx will do.
Be sure to include cool emojis in the bio such as dollar bills or the globe to show you have money and travel the world!
Step Two: Create That Lifestyle
You need to create an image of yourself that will attract people who want to make money fast and never actually do any work in their lives.
To do this:
Step 2.1 - Rent stuff.
First off, you need a car. A Lamborghini is an optimum choice, with a GTR and an R8 a close 2nd. Costs around $800 for the day, probably even less if you are a good boy on the road.
Next, you need a crib. Airbnb will do the trick. https://www.airbnb.co.uk/rooms/15740766?location=Los%20Angeles%2C%20CA&adults=2&children=0&infants=0&check_in=2018-11-13&check_out=2018-11-14&s=SdtPtVkq - This one will do, £400 per night.
Step 2.2 - Optional Step
This isn't a must but definitely helps make you more money from home. Buy some fake money. Get a big fat stack of it, the best picture is to hold it in front of your Lamborghini steering wheel with the caption "withdrawing this week's profit".
Again this is an optional step, but a good one. Rent some hot models. These babies cost about $20 per hour and really add that I'm the Wolf of Wall Street vibe to your page. Fill your car and your fancy apartment with them, I think you can get 2 or 3 in a Lambo.
Step 3 - Photography
This is my personal favorite step. You need to take as many pictures as possible, enough for a couple months of daily posts. Pose by the car, get different girls to pose by the car. Chill by the pool with a cocktail (post the caption "I Love Monday Mornings" for bonus points). Take pics of your fresh crib. Do whatever you need to do in order to look rich for the day, make people believe you are living the lifestyle, even though you aren't... yet.
Step 4 - The Offer
Now you have the content, you need the offer. I'll stick with the forex trading example for this as well because I like consistency.
There are a few offers you can choose from. The first and most popular is creating a course. You need about 1-2 hours worth of content for this, and you just have to act like you know what you are on about and post some cough fake cough results to show you are 100% legit and 100% real. Watch a few youtube videos and just put that into a powerpoint, you might actually have to do some work here, it could take a few hours even; but once done you can sell it for $199.99 (reduced from $499.99) and they won't even realise it was stuff they can find online for free.
Another offer is a sign-up bonus. You partner with a broker and offer your client an incentive for using your link (like they can copy your trades or something like that). The broker will either pay you a lump sum for every referral, or sometimes even pay commissions for every loss your client makes. When the client asks why they keep losing, you just ensure that you have to lose before you win, or something like that.
I have also seen methods like hiring a trader to recommend you trades and then passing these on to the client and taking 25% (or however much you want to ask for) of their profits. Of course, you aren't putting on the trades yourself so it doesn't matter if they lose. Great leverage!
Step Five
This is probably the hardest step. You will actually have to get some clients results in the first few days. Why? So you can post them on your insta account and showoff your happy clients of course. Usually, the numbers I see are around £50 profit in a week (definitely enough to pay for your lavish lifestyle!). Never post the losers, and be sure to delete negative comments as soon as possible.
Step Six - ADVERTISE
Use FB ads to promote your instagram account. Use pics of your fancy crib and car with CTA's like "Make Money Online Fast Today" - target people with interests in entrepreneurship, or better yet, hire someone on Fiverr to do it for you! People will start following you because you seem to have such a rich lifestyle and they want to emulate that. You convince them it is easy if you follow their advice and voila, make that money.
submitted by LetsGoRollins to Forex [link] [comments]
06-20 06:54 - 'I trade on behalf of clients on the Forex market. My clients earn a 14% weekly profit on ROI ( returns on investment) for 12 months. For example you invest $10,000 , i would use your capital to trade for the next 12 month...' by /u/nellysmart1 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 359-369min
'''
I trade on behalf of clients on the Forex market. My clients earn a 14% weekly profit on ROI ( returns on investment) for 12 months. For example you invest $10,000 , i would use your capital to trade for the next 12 months, and you would be earning nothing less than $1,400 weekly.
'''
Context Link
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: nellysmart1
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]
[100%] FOREX TRADING WITH LIVE ACCOUNT EXAMPLES OF FOREX TRADING COUPON
submitted by Trendycz to udemyfreebies [link] [comments]
Simple example of "data mining" implementation for stocks/ forex or any forms of trading
Would the kind folks on algotrading share with me a simple example of "data mining" applications on any forms of trading?
I understand that "data mining" is more or less "extracting" or "uncovering" meaningful but hidden information from existing data, but I'd like to hear some practical examples from the algortraders themselves.
(I'm a newbie in both data mining and trading - go easy on me folks!)
Many thanks algortraders!
submitted by runnersgo to algotrading [link] [comments]
Forex Trading Like Banks – Step by Step with Live Examples
submitted by saadmerie to udemyfreebies [link] [comments]
Hi, good morning! You know martscrypto.com? Forex Binary Options Trading Cryptomes - Earn 8.5% per week, directly to your Bitcoins portfolio. - Earn 7 x the Value of your Initial Investment. Example: Invests 1000 that generates 7000 -Gain 10% of all registrations you make - qualifi /r/Bitcoin
submitted by SimilarAdvantage to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]
[Download] Forex Trading Like Banks - Step by Step with Live Examples
Download from : http://scenep2p.com/e-books/video-training/3840-forex-trading-like-banks-step-by-step-with-live-examples.html
submitted by scenep2p to scenep2p [link] [comments]
knowledge base section you will find easy-to-understand information on the history of the currency markets, what is the Forex market, how trading works, fundamental and technical analysis, simple explanations on some example technical indicators and key components you will need to get started.
submitted by sgtmarkets to forex_trades [link] [comments]
The comedy how I lost all my money in two hours
I'm trading for 11 months with pretty good success.
I never traded metals and forex before, just stocks. Today when gold started to consolidate at the last hour, I decided to scalp short it with a large amount, so I opened 100 lots. I haven't realised, in forex 100 (lots) doesn't mean "100 pcs", because I used to stocks and I went full retard without knowledge.
Seconds later, I realised it means 10 million dollars (1 lot = 100.000, and I had 500x leverage).
It moved up a bit and immediately I was down £4000. I scared as fuck and rather than closing the position quickly I hoped maybe I could close break even.
The market closed, and I waited for the Asian session. The gold popped like never before, and I lost all my life savings (£55000) in less than two hours. (including the 1-hour break between sessions).
If I count that I lost all my earnings as well, I lost around £85000.
Here is the margin call
https://imgur.com/a/XY5m4ZA
https://imgur.com/a/VSgmCSs
https://imgur.com/pRWl5g9
IC Markets closed my position partially in every 1-2 minutes until I shut it myself at £35.
You know the rest of the story. I'm depressed, crying and shouting with myself.
Yes, I know I was stupid, thanks. I just wanted to share this with you.
Edit: WOW THANK YOU, GUYS! I haven't expected this, but you help me.
Many of you asked the same questions, I answer it here:
- I live in Europe, and we usually trade CFD's, not futures.
- Currency in GBP.
- As you can see, this account made on IC Markets. They not just allowing you a 500x leverage, it's the default.
- You can ask me why I went against the market. Because gold is way oversold? Because I expected institutions would sell their shares before gold is hitting £2000, leaving retails hanging there. Also, as I said, I wanted to scalp, not riding the gold all the way down. If I had a loss of £100, I would close the position immediately. But when I saw the £4000, my heart is stopped, and my brain just freezes.
- I went for a revenge trade with my last £2k, and I don't have to say what happened. I uninstalled the app, and I give up trading for a while.
- Again, in the past months, I was cautious, I lost a significant sum in March, but I managed to recover. Made consistent gains, always with SL. This is just an example of how easy is to fuck up everything you did.
- I didn't come here for some shiny digital medals. I can't tell about my losses to anyone who I know in real life. I would make a fool of myself.
- Anyone who attacking me that it is a scam. Well, think what you want. I feel terrible and the last thing is to answer all the messages saying "You fucking karma whore". I don't give a shit about karma.
submitted by fail0verflowf9 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020.
Investors will look to the Fed to soothe the market next week, but that may be a tall order - (Source)
Markets are looking to the Federal Reserve to be a soothing force when it meets in the week ahead, but stocks could remain choppy if the central bank disappoints and as investors focus on the election and the economic recovery.
The Fed’s two-day meeting is expected to end Wednesday with minor tweaks to its statement and some clarity on how it plans to use forward guidance. The Fed also updates its economic and interest rate outlook, including forecasts for 2023 for the first time.
But Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial, said the stock market could easily be disappointed because the Fed is unlikely to offer more clarity on monetary policy, such as plans for bond buying.
“The market is concerned the Fed is not going to give us explicit readings on their plans for monetary policy,″ she said. The Fed’s extraordinary policies have been an important factor behind the stock market’s 50% surge from the March 23 low, and it’s also seen as a major factor limiting the depth of the market’s sell-off.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the Fed is not likely to tweak much and it continues to buy $80 billion a month in Treasurys. “I don’t think they’ll do anything to the markets either way,” he said.
Stocks were volatile in the past week, falling hard, rallying, falling and rallying again. That left the S&P 500 with a weekly decline of about 2.5%, its worst week since June. The harder hit Nasdaq was down about 4.1% for the week, its worst weekly decline since March. The quadruple expiration of options and futures at the end of the coming week could add to the volatility.
Bank of America strategists said the bond market is watching the Fed for any balance sheet adjustments and the changes to its forward guidance, which includes the Fed’s recent tweak in its inflation policy. The Fed changed its policy of focusing on a target inflation rate to an average rate, meaning it may not tighten policy if inflation overshoots its 2% target.
“We see risk the rates market is underwhelmed by the guidance provided by the Fed, which would support higher back-end rates and a steeper curve,” the Bank of America strategists noted. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid in the past week, touching 0.67% Friday, and it could move higher, meaning bonds may sell-off, if the Fed does not clarify policy around its bond buying program.
Krosby said the stock market is hoping for a dovish Fed. “The market needs that now because fiscal policy is going nowhere,” she said.
BTIG strategist Julian Emanuel said the market could focus on the fact that Congress failed to make headway on fiscal stimulus, if the economic data begins to disappoint.
Retail sales for August are expected Wednesday morning, as the Fed meets. They are expected to rise by 1%, and that should be an important look at whether the lack of enhanced unemployment benefits, which expired July 31, impacted consumer spending. Among other things, Republicans and Democrats could not agree how to replace the $600 weekly payment to the unemployed.
“Depending on the polls and the economic data, the probability of stimulus rises and falls,” said Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy.
“Our view is that next week is just going to be lots of back and forth with the potential for a further extension of the range for the downside, if the political narrative gets more inflamed,” said Emanuel. Emanuel expects the market to remain choppy and fall further into the month of October, as investors worry about the uncertainty around the presidential election.
The Fed’s meeting this week is its last before the election, and analysts expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to sound reassuring that the Fed will do whatever it takes to support the economy. Powell holds a briefing after the meeting Wednesday, and he is expected to also be asked about the potential for higher inflation. The Fed has said it is more concerned about disinflation, but recent inflation data has been hotter than expected, though still well below 2%.
“There is a tug of war between those who say buy chips now because inflation is moving higher, versus those why are saying deflationary forces are still weaving their way into the economy,” said Krosby.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said he expects the Fed to sound reassuring but it’s not likely to discuss a target for bond purchases or the yield curve controls some investors were hoping for. Yield curve control would mean the Fed would try to manage interest rates by targeting its purchases of specific Treasurys. For instance, it may focus on trying to keep longer duration yields lower, and buy the 10-year.
Chandler also noted the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet has recently declined by about $100 billion from its peak, and its bond purchases are falling behind the European Central Bank.
“My sense is the Fed is going to keep saying it’s not worried about inflation. Its bigger worry is downside risks. They’ll repeat their call for fiscal stimulus which after this week seems less likely,” he said.
Chandler said the stock market could remain choppy in the coming week, but he does not expect a sharp selloff. The dollar could decline, if the Fed sounds dovish, and that is a positive for stocks.
“I don’t think a 10% pullback [in Nasdaq] has caused enough pain to have people capitulate. This is just an ordinary correction, and we’re going to make new highs,” he said.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
Election Charts You Need To See: Part 1
First off, our thoughts go out to everyone who was impacted by the tragic events of September 11, 2001—19 years ago today. It is a day to reflect and remember those who were lost.
One of the top requests we’ve had here at LPL Research is for more charts on the election. Over the next week, we will share some of our favorite charts on this very important subject.
Here’s how the S&P 500 Index performs under various presidents and congressional makeups. The best scenario has historically been a Democratic president and Republican Congress, while a Republican president and Democratic Congress has been the weakest.
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Building on this, a split Congress historically has been one of the best scenarios for investors.
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The best scenario under a Republican president is a split Congress, a potential positive for 2020 that has played out after the massive reversal in the stock market since March.
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Looking at the four-year presidential cycle shows that stocks haven’t been down during a year the president was up for a re-election since FDR in the 1940s, another bullish tailwind for 2020.
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Here’s another look at this, as stocks historically have done much better when there isn’t a lame duck president.
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Active Managers Do an About Face
The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has an index which tracks the exposure of its members to US equity markets. Each week, members are asked to provide a number that represents their exposure to markets. A reading of -200 means they are leveraged short, -100 indicates fully short, 0 is neutral, 100% is fully invested, and 200% indicates leveraged long. Two weeks ago, in our Bespoke Report, we highlighted the fact that the exposure index had moved to one of the highest levels in its 15-year history. Now, just two weeks later, these same active managers have reigned in their exposure considerably as this week's reading dropped from just under 100 to 53.1.
This week's drop was the second-largest one week decline in the index's history and just the 10th time that the index lost more than a third (33 points) in a single week. The most recent occurrence was back in early March in the middle of the Covid crash, and every other prior period where the index saw a similar drop, the S&P 500 was also down every time by an average of 2.3%. Therefore, it's not much of a surprise to see the big drop this week given the big declines in the market. But what about going forward? Do big drops in the NAAIM Index mean a bounce back for markets or further declines?
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The Most and Least Heavily Shorted Stocks in the Russell 1,000
Below is an updated look at the most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000. Each of these 30 stocks has at least 15% of its equity float sold short.
At the top of the list is Nordstrom (JWN) with 38.66% of its float sold short. With a YTD decline of 61.86%, the shorts have crushed it with JWN this year.
With its huge portfolio of office and retail real estate, Brookfield Property REIT(BPYU) has the second highest short interest in the Russell 1,000 at 33.7%. BPYU is down 35.7% YTD.
There are plenty of other well-known companies on the list of the most heavily shorted stocks. Examples include American Airlines (AAL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), LendingTree (TREE), Wayfair (W), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), ADT, TripAdvisor (TRIP), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Kohl's (KSS).
One name that is no longer on the list of most shorted stocks is Tesla (TSLA). When we provided an update on short interest back in February (a pre-COVID world), Tesla (TSLA) had more than 17% of its float sold short, but that number is all the way down to 8.3% as of the most recent filing.
These 30 stocks with the highest short interest are down an average of 3.01% since last Wednesday (9/2) when the S&P 500 made its last closing high. That's actually a little bit better than the 3.55% average decline for the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000. And year-to-date, these 30 stocks are up an average of 0.60% versus an average gain of 0.81% for the rest of the index. That's not much of a difference!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a list of the 30 least shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 as a percentage of equity float. None of these stocks have more than 0.71% of their float sold short, and they're mostly made up of more conservative names in the Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has the lowest short interest as a percentage of float in the Russell 1,000 at just 0.36%. Microsoft (MSFT) -- one of the key mega-cap Tech names -- has the second lowest short interest, followed by Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Medtronic (MDT).
Somewhat surprisingly, Amazon (AMZN) is the sixth least shorted stock in the entire Russell 1,000. While AMZN is still thought of as a high-flying momentum name by many investors, its short interest levels tell a much different story, painting it as more of a non-cyclical stock like Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), or Coca- Cola (KO).
While the 30 most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up 0.60% YTD, the 30 least shorted stocks in the index are up much more at +8%. This group has MSFT, AMZN, HD, and AAPL to thank for that strong performance!
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5 Lessons Learned About Rising Rates
While the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield over the last cycle was decidedly lower, as shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, there were still six extended periods where it rose at least 0.75%, and in two of those it rose almost 2%. Looking ahead, economic growth below potential, slack in the labor market, and an extremely supportive Federal Reserve (Fed) may limit rate pressure in the near term, but with interest rates already low and massive stimulus in place, we believe the overall direction is likely to be higher.
“Even in a falling rate period there are lessons from the last cycle about rising rates,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “Among them: Careful when the Fed stops buying and sometimes the best defense is a good offense.”
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While every economic cycle is unique, the last cycle highlighted these key takeaways about periods of rising rates:
Careful when the Fed stops buying. The two drivers of rising rates last cycle were economic growth and Fed bond purchases, also known as quantitative easing (QE). The Fed buys bonds to keep rates down, but the start of Fed buying has actually been the time when rates rise—likely on expectations that the purchases would help strengthen the economy. These periods also often followed large rate declines either because markets anticipated the start of Fed buying or the economy was faltering. The takeaway: unless the economy is really taking off, any rising-rate period may pause for an extended period, or even reverse, when the Fed backs off bond purchases.
Sometime the best defense is a good offense. Lower-quality, more economically sensitive bond sectors actually performed well during periods of rising rates during the last cycle. Rate gains were largely driven by economic improvement rather than a large pick-up in inflation, and that’s typically a good environment for sectors like high-yield bonds and bank loans. The downside is that these are much riskier bond sectors and don’t provide the potential diversification benefits of higher-quality bonds during periods of stock declines.
Don’t expect TIPS to provide much resilience because of their inflation adjustment. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are high-quality bonds that have provided a little extra insulation against rising rates compared to similarly dated Treasuries when inflation expectations increased. TIPS prices are adjusted for inflation, but even with the adjustment, they are still very sensitive to rates.
Investment-grade corporates can both hurt and help. If credit spreads narrow when rates are rising, investment-grade corporates can post some solid gains in a rising-rate environment, but if spreads are holding steady or even widening, they can be very sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, potentially (although not often) even more sensitive than Treasuries.
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have not provided as much insulation as corporates, but they also have had less downside. While MBS have certainly outperformed Treasuries during periods of rising rates, they have not performed as well as investment-grade corporates. But they also have come with less downside, losing only 1.4% in their worst performing period compared to a 4% loss during the worst period for corporates. With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.
With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.
Best and Worst Performing Stocks Since the 9/2 High
Since the S&P 500 and Nasdaq peaked on September 2nd, we've seen rotation out of the post-COVID winners and rotation into laggards in the value space. Below we take a look at the best and worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 since the 9/2 high for the S&P. For each stock, we also include its YTD total return and its percentage change from the 3/23 COVID Crash low through 9/2.
Capri Holdings (CPRI) is up more than any other stock in the Russell 1,000 since 9/2 with a gain of 17.43%. Even after the recent gains, however, Capri -- the holding company for brands like Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, and Versace -- is still down 52.9% year-to-date.
Only four other stocks are up more than 10% since 9/2 -- Beyond Meat (BYND), PVH, Virtu Financial (VIRT), and Reinsurance Group (RGA). Interestingly, BYND and VIRT are also up big (~80%) year-to-date, while PVH and RGA are both down more than 35% year-to-date.
What stands out the most about the list of winners is that only one Technology stock made the cut -- Sabre (SABR). Most names come from the two consumer sectors including cruise-liners like Carnival (CCL), Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise (NCLH), Kohl's (KSS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Six Flags (SIX), Foot Locker (FL), and Ralph Lauren (RL). Both UBER and LYFT also made the cut with gains of 6% since 9/2. The 30 biggest winners since 9/2 are still down an average of 20% year-to-date, while the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up an average of 1.46% YTD.
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While only one Technology stock made the list of biggest winners since 9/2, the sector accounts for two-thirds of the 30 biggest losers over the same time frame. As shown below, since 9/2, the six worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 and ten of the worst twelve all come from Tech. Notably, though, these 30 stocks that have all fallen more than 12% since 9/2 are still up an average of 5.6% YTD. Were it not for the horrid YTD performance of the Energy stocks that made the list, the average YTD gain would be even higher.
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Typical Early September Weakness Recovers Mid-Month Sells Off Month-End
As of yesterday’s close the market was down more than the historical average performance in September. DJIA was down nearly -3.3%, S&P 500 was down -4.8%, NASDAQ was off 7.9%, Russell 1000 was down -5.2% and Russell 2000 lost 3.7%. Today’s rally looks like the beginning of a textbook mid-month recovery rally However, the second half of September has historically been weaker than the first half. The week after options expiration week can be treacherous with S&P 500 logging 23 weekly losses in 30 years since 1990. End-of-quarter portfolio restructuring, and window dressing can amplify the impacts of any negative headlines.
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(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 9.14.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 9.14.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 9.15.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 9.15.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 9.16.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 9.16.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Thursday 9.17.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 9.17.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 9.18.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 9.18.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
FedEx Corp. $232.79
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.54 per share on revenue of $17.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.72% with revenue increasing by 2.42%. Short interest has decreased by 15.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.3% above its 200 day moving average of $150.90. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,504 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Adobe Inc. $471.35
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.41 per share on revenue of $3.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $2.40 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.62% with revenue increasing by 11.15%. Short interest has decreased by 14.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.2% above its 200 day moving average of $376.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 18,006 contracts of the $455.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. $136.79
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $483.68 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.49) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 120.37% with revenue decreasing by 38.55%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 30.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $121.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $190.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
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Aspen Group, Inc. $11.54
Aspen Group, Inc. (ASPU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $14.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 63.64% with revenue increasing by 37.67%. Short interest has increased by 56.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.3% above its 200 day moving average of $8.72. The stock has averaged a 11.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Lennar Corp. $77.48
Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:35 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $5.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.03% with revenue decreasing by 9.00%. Short interest has decreased by 16.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.6% above its 200 day moving average of $59.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Endava $53.03
Endava (DAVA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:20 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $107.96 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.18 to $0.20 per share on revenue of $105.00 million to $106.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 26.92% with revenue increasing by 9.61%. Short interest has increased by 56.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.7% above its 200 day moving average of $47.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Brady Corp. $45.34
Brady Corp. (BRC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $260.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 19.12% with revenue decreasing by 11.95%. Short interest has decreased by 37.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% below its 200 day moving average of $49.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Cantel Medical Corp. $49.12
Cantel Medical Corp. (CMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $232.80 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 87.30% with revenue decreasing by 2.79%. Short interest has decreased by 19.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.7% below its 200 day moving average of $51.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 17.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
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IsoRay Inc $0.63
IsoRay Inc (ISR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $2.77 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 43.97%. Short interest has decreased by 26.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 33.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% below its 200 day moving average of $0.68. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Apogee Enterprises, Inc. $19.49
Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 19% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.78% with revenue increasing by 179.79%. Short interest has decreased by 4.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% below its 200 day moving average of $25.63. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
Why it matters
Position sizing
Kelly
Using stops sensibly
Picking a clear level
Why it matters
The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.
Capital and position sizing
The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".
https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:
https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.
Kelly Criterion
If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.
How to use stop losses sensibly
Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.
Picking a clear level
Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.
If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.
https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.
https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.
Coming up in part II
EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns
Coming up in part III
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020.
Investors will look to the Fed to soothe the market next week, but that may be a tall order - (Source)
Markets are looking to the Federal Reserve to be a soothing force when it meets in the week ahead, but stocks could remain choppy if the central bank disappoints and as investors focus on the election and the economic recovery.
The Fed’s two-day meeting is expected to end Wednesday with minor tweaks to its statement and some clarity on how it plans to use forward guidance. The Fed also updates its economic and interest rate outlook, including forecasts for 2023 for the first time.
But Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial, said the stock market could easily be disappointed because the Fed is unlikely to offer more clarity on monetary policy, such as plans for bond buying.
“The market is concerned the Fed is not going to give us explicit readings on their plans for monetary policy,″ she said. The Fed’s extraordinary policies have been an important factor behind the stock market’s 50% surge from the March 23 low, and it’s also seen as a major factor limiting the depth of the market’s sell-off.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the Fed is not likely to tweak much and it continues to buy $80 billion a month in Treasurys. “I don’t think they’ll do anything to the markets either way,” he said.
Stocks were volatile in the past week, falling hard, rallying, falling and rallying again. That left the S&P 500 with a weekly decline of about 2.5%, its worst week since June. The harder hit Nasdaq was down about 4.1% for the week, its worst weekly decline since March. The quadruple expiration of options and futures at the end of the coming week could add to the volatility.
Bank of America strategists said the bond market is watching the Fed for any balance sheet adjustments and the changes to its forward guidance, which includes the Fed’s recent tweak in its inflation policy. The Fed changed its policy of focusing on a target inflation rate to an average rate, meaning it may not tighten policy if inflation overshoots its 2% target.
“We see risk the rates market is underwhelmed by the guidance provided by the Fed, which would support higher back-end rates and a steeper curve,” the Bank of America strategists noted. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid in the past week, touching 0.67% Friday, and it could move higher, meaning bonds may sell-off, if the Fed does not clarify policy around its bond buying program.
Krosby said the stock market is hoping for a dovish Fed. “The market needs that now because fiscal policy is going nowhere,” she said.
BTIG strategist Julian Emanuel said the market could focus on the fact that Congress failed to make headway on fiscal stimulus, if the economic data begins to disappoint.
Retail sales for August are expected Wednesday morning, as the Fed meets. They are expected to rise by 1%, and that should be an important look at whether the lack of enhanced unemployment benefits, which expired July 31, impacted consumer spending. Among other things, Republicans and Democrats could not agree how to replace the $600 weekly payment to the unemployed.
“Depending on the polls and the economic data, the probability of stimulus rises and falls,” said Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy.
“Our view is that next week is just going to be lots of back and forth with the potential for a further extension of the range for the downside, if the political narrative gets more inflamed,” said Emanuel. Emanuel expects the market to remain choppy and fall further into the month of October, as investors worry about the uncertainty around the presidential election.
The Fed’s meeting this week is its last before the election, and analysts expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to sound reassuring that the Fed will do whatever it takes to support the economy. Powell holds a briefing after the meeting Wednesday, and he is expected to also be asked about the potential for higher inflation. The Fed has said it is more concerned about disinflation, but recent inflation data has been hotter than expected, though still well below 2%.
“There is a tug of war between those who say buy chips now because inflation is moving higher, versus those why are saying deflationary forces are still weaving their way into the economy,” said Krosby.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said he expects the Fed to sound reassuring but it’s not likely to discuss a target for bond purchases or the yield curve controls some investors were hoping for. Yield curve control would mean the Fed would try to manage interest rates by targeting its purchases of specific Treasurys. For instance, it may focus on trying to keep longer duration yields lower, and buy the 10-year.
Chandler also noted the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet has recently declined by about $100 billion from its peak, and its bond purchases are falling behind the European Central Bank.
“My sense is the Fed is going to keep saying it’s not worried about inflation. Its bigger worry is downside risks. They’ll repeat their call for fiscal stimulus which after this week seems less likely,” he said.
Chandler said the stock market could remain choppy in the coming week, but he does not expect a sharp selloff. The dollar could decline, if the Fed sounds dovish, and that is a positive for stocks.
“I don’t think a 10% pullback [in Nasdaq] has caused enough pain to have people capitulate. This is just an ordinary correction, and we’re going to make new highs,” he said.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
Election Charts You Need To See: Part 1
First off, our thoughts go out to everyone who was impacted by the tragic events of September 11, 2001—19 years ago today. It is a day to reflect and remember those who were lost.
One of the top requests we’ve had here at LPL Research is for more charts on the election. Over the next week, we will share some of our favorite charts on this very important subject.
Here’s how the S&P 500 Index performs under various presidents and congressional makeups. The best scenario has historically been a Democratic president and Republican Congress, while a Republican president and Democratic Congress has been the weakest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, a split Congress historically has been one of the best scenarios for investors.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The best scenario under a Republican president is a split Congress, a potential positive for 2020 that has played out after the massive reversal in the stock market since March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Looking at the four-year presidential cycle shows that stocks haven’t been down during a year the president was up for a re-election since FDR in the 1940s, another bullish tailwind for 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another look at this, as stocks historically have done much better when there isn’t a lame duck president.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Active Managers Do an About Face
The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has an index which tracks the exposure of its members to US equity markets. Each week, members are asked to provide a number that represents their exposure to markets. A reading of -200 means they are leveraged short, -100 indicates fully short, 0 is neutral, 100% is fully invested, and 200% indicates leveraged long. Two weeks ago, in our Bespoke Report, we highlighted the fact that the exposure index had moved to one of the highest levels in its 15-year history. Now, just two weeks later, these same active managers have reigned in their exposure considerably as this week's reading dropped from just under 100 to 53.1.
This week's drop was the second-largest one week decline in the index's history and just the 10th time that the index lost more than a third (33 points) in a single week. The most recent occurrence was back in early March in the middle of the Covid crash, and every other prior period where the index saw a similar drop, the S&P 500 was also down every time by an average of 2.3%. Therefore, it's not much of a surprise to see the big drop this week given the big declines in the market. But what about going forward? Do big drops in the NAAIM Index mean a bounce back for markets or further declines?
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Most and Least Heavily Shorted Stocks in the Russell 1,000
Below is an updated look at the most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000. Each of these 30 stocks has at least 15% of its equity float sold short.
At the top of the list is Nordstrom (JWN) with 38.66% of its float sold short. With a YTD decline of 61.86%, the shorts have crushed it with JWN this year.
With its huge portfolio of office and retail real estate, Brookfield Property REIT(BPYU) has the second highest short interest in the Russell 1,000 at 33.7%. BPYU is down 35.7% YTD.
There are plenty of other well-known companies on the list of the most heavily shorted stocks. Examples include American Airlines (AAL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), LendingTree (TREE), Wayfair (W), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), ADT, TripAdvisor (TRIP), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Kohl's (KSS).
One name that is no longer on the list of most shorted stocks is Tesla (TSLA). When we provided an update on short interest back in February (a pre-COVID world), Tesla (TSLA) had more than 17% of its float sold short, but that number is all the way down to 8.3% as of the most recent filing.
These 30 stocks with the highest short interest are down an average of 3.01% since last Wednesday (9/2) when the S&P 500 made its last closing high. That's actually a little bit better than the 3.55% average decline for the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000. And year-to-date, these 30 stocks are up an average of 0.60% versus an average gain of 0.81% for the rest of the index. That's not much of a difference!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a list of the 30 least shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 as a percentage of equity float. None of these stocks have more than 0.71% of their float sold short, and they're mostly made up of more conservative names in the Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has the lowest short interest as a percentage of float in the Russell 1,000 at just 0.36%. Microsoft (MSFT) -- one of the key mega-cap Tech names -- has the second lowest short interest, followed by Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Medtronic (MDT).
Somewhat surprisingly, Amazon (AMZN) is the sixth least shorted stock in the entire Russell 1,000. While AMZN is still thought of as a high-flying momentum name by many investors, its short interest levels tell a much different story, painting it as more of a non-cyclical stock like Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), or Coca- Cola (KO).
While the 30 most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up 0.60% YTD, the 30 least shorted stocks in the index are up much more at +8%. This group has MSFT, AMZN, HD, and AAPL to thank for that strong performance!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
5 Lessons Learned About Rising Rates
While the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield over the last cycle was decidedly lower, as shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, there were still six extended periods where it rose at least 0.75%, and in two of those it rose almost 2%. Looking ahead, economic growth below potential, slack in the labor market, and an extremely supportive Federal Reserve (Fed) may limit rate pressure in the near term, but with interest rates already low and massive stimulus in place, we believe the overall direction is likely to be higher.
“Even in a falling rate period there are lessons from the last cycle about rising rates,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “Among them: Careful when the Fed stops buying and sometimes the best defense is a good offense.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While every economic cycle is unique, the last cycle highlighted these key takeaways about periods of rising rates:
Careful when the Fed stops buying. The two drivers of rising rates last cycle were economic growth and Fed bond purchases, also known as quantitative easing (QE). The Fed buys bonds to keep rates down, but the start of Fed buying has actually been the time when rates rise—likely on expectations that the purchases would help strengthen the economy. These periods also often followed large rate declines either because markets anticipated the start of Fed buying or the economy was faltering. The takeaway: unless the economy is really taking off, any rising-rate period may pause for an extended period, or even reverse, when the Fed backs off bond purchases.
Sometime the best defense is a good offense. Lower-quality, more economically sensitive bond sectors actually performed well during periods of rising rates during the last cycle. Rate gains were largely driven by economic improvement rather than a large pick-up in inflation, and that’s typically a good environment for sectors like high-yield bonds and bank loans. The downside is that these are much riskier bond sectors and don’t provide the potential diversification benefits of higher-quality bonds during periods of stock declines.
Don’t expect TIPS to provide much resilience because of their inflation adjustment. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are high-quality bonds that have provided a little extra insulation against rising rates compared to similarly dated Treasuries when inflation expectations increased. TIPS prices are adjusted for inflation, but even with the adjustment, they are still very sensitive to rates.
Investment-grade corporates can both hurt and help. If credit spreads narrow when rates are rising, investment-grade corporates can post some solid gains in a rising-rate environment, but if spreads are holding steady or even widening, they can be very sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, potentially (although not often) even more sensitive than Treasuries.
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have not provided as much insulation as corporates, but they also have had less downside. While MBS have certainly outperformed Treasuries during periods of rising rates, they have not performed as well as investment-grade corporates. But they also have come with less downside, losing only 1.4% in their worst performing period compared to a 4% loss during the worst period for corporates. With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.
With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.
Best and Worst Performing Stocks Since the 9/2 High
Since the S&P 500 and Nasdaq peaked on September 2nd, we've seen rotation out of the post-COVID winners and rotation into laggards in the value space. Below we take a look at the best and worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 since the 9/2 high for the S&P. For each stock, we also include its YTD total return and its percentage change from the 3/23 COVID Crash low through 9/2.
Capri Holdings (CPRI) is up more than any other stock in the Russell 1,000 since 9/2 with a gain of 17.43%. Even after the recent gains, however, Capri -- the holding company for brands like Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, and Versace -- is still down 52.9% year-to-date.
Only four other stocks are up more than 10% since 9/2 -- Beyond Meat (BYND), PVH, Virtu Financial (VIRT), and Reinsurance Group (RGA). Interestingly, BYND and VIRT are also up big (~80%) year-to-date, while PVH and RGA are both down more than 35% year-to-date.
What stands out the most about the list of winners is that only one Technology stock made the cut -- Sabre (SABR). Most names come from the two consumer sectors including cruise-liners like Carnival (CCL), Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise (NCLH), Kohl's (KSS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Six Flags (SIX), Foot Locker (FL), and Ralph Lauren (RL). Both UBER and LYFT also made the cut with gains of 6% since 9/2. The 30 biggest winners since 9/2 are still down an average of 20% year-to-date, while the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up an average of 1.46% YTD.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While only one Technology stock made the list of biggest winners since 9/2, the sector accounts for two-thirds of the 30 biggest losers over the same time frame. As shown below, since 9/2, the six worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 and ten of the worst twelve all come from Tech. Notably, though, these 30 stocks that have all fallen more than 12% since 9/2 are still up an average of 5.6% YTD. Were it not for the horrid YTD performance of the Energy stocks that made the list, the average YTD gain would be even higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical Early September Weakness Recovers Mid-Month Sells Off Month-End
As of yesterday’s close the market was down more than the historical average performance in September. DJIA was down nearly -3.3%, S&P 500 was down -4.8%, NASDAQ was off 7.9%, Russell 1000 was down -5.2% and Russell 2000 lost 3.7%. Today’s rally looks like the beginning of a textbook mid-month recovery rally However, the second half of September has historically been weaker than the first half. The week after options expiration week can be treacherous with S&P 500 logging 23 weekly losses in 30 years since 1990. End-of-quarter portfolio restructuring, and window dressing can amplify the impacts of any negative headlines.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 11th, 2020
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.13.20
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
$FDX
$ADBE
$CBRL
$ASPU
$LEN
$DAVA
$BRC
$CMD
$ISR
$APOG
$ICMB
$HMY
$VNCE
$CSBR
$EARS
$AFIB
$OSH
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 9.14.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 9.14.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 9.15.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 9.15.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 9.16.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 9.16.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Thursday 9.17.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 9.17.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 9.18.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 9.18.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
FedEx Corp. $232.79
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.54 per share on revenue of $17.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.72% with revenue increasing by 2.42%. Short interest has decreased by 15.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.3% above its 200 day moving average of $150.90. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,504 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Adobe Inc. $471.35
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.41 per share on revenue of $3.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $2.40 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.62% with revenue increasing by 11.15%. Short interest has decreased by 14.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.2% above its 200 day moving average of $376.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 18,006 contracts of the $455.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. $136.79
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $483.68 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.49) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 120.37% with revenue decreasing by 38.55%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 30.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $121.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $190.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Aspen Group, Inc. $11.54
Aspen Group, Inc. (ASPU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $14.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 63.64% with revenue increasing by 37.67%. Short interest has increased by 56.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.3% above its 200 day moving average of $8.72. The stock has averaged a 11.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lennar Corp. $77.48
Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:35 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $5.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.03% with revenue decreasing by 9.00%. Short interest has decreased by 16.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.6% above its 200 day moving average of $59.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Endava $53.03
Endava (DAVA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:20 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $107.96 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.18 to $0.20 per share on revenue of $105.00 million to $106.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 26.92% with revenue increasing by 9.61%. Short interest has increased by 56.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.7% above its 200 day moving average of $47.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Brady Corp. $45.34
Brady Corp. (BRC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $260.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 19.12% with revenue decreasing by 11.95%. Short interest has decreased by 37.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% below its 200 day moving average of $49.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Cantel Medical Corp. $49.12
Cantel Medical Corp. (CMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $232.80 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 87.30% with revenue decreasing by 2.79%. Short interest has decreased by 19.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.7% below its 200 day moving average of $51.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 17.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
IsoRay Inc $0.63
IsoRay Inc (ISR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $2.77 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 43.97%. Short interest has decreased by 26.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 33.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% below its 200 day moving average of $0.68. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Apogee Enterprises, Inc. $19.49
Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 19% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.78% with revenue increasing by 179.79%. Short interest has decreased by 4.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% below its 200 day moving average of $25.63. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]
Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns
Letting stops breathe
We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.
Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.
ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.
Reasons to change a stop
As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.
The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?
Entering and exiting winning positions
Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.
Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.
Entering positions with limit orders
That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.
Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.
Risk:reward and win ratios
Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.
A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.
Risk-adjusted returns
Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.
Sharpe ratio
The Sharpe ratio works like this:
It takes the average returns of your strategy;
It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.
VAR
VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.
A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.
Coming up in part III
Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 14th, 2020.
Investors will look to the Fed to soothe the market next week, but that may be a tall order - (Source)
Markets are looking to the Federal Reserve to be a soothing force when it meets in the week ahead, but stocks could remain choppy if the central bank disappoints and as investors focus on the election and the economic recovery.
The Fed’s two-day meeting is expected to end Wednesday with minor tweaks to its statement and some clarity on how it plans to use forward guidance. The Fed also updates its economic and interest rate outlook, including forecasts for 2023 for the first time.
But Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial, said the stock market could easily be disappointed because the Fed is unlikely to offer more clarity on monetary policy, such as plans for bond buying.
“The market is concerned the Fed is not going to give us explicit readings on their plans for monetary policy,″ she said. The Fed’s extraordinary policies have been an important factor behind the stock market’s 50% surge from the March 23 low, and it’s also seen as a major factor limiting the depth of the market’s sell-off.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the Fed is not likely to tweak much and it continues to buy $80 billion a month in Treasurys. “I don’t think they’ll do anything to the markets either way,” he said.
Stocks were volatile in the past week, falling hard, rallying, falling and rallying again. That left the S&P 500 with a weekly decline of about 2.5%, its worst week since June. The harder hit Nasdaq was down about 4.1% for the week, its worst weekly decline since March. The quadruple expiration of options and futures at the end of the coming week could add to the volatility.
Bank of America strategists said the bond market is watching the Fed for any balance sheet adjustments and the changes to its forward guidance, which includes the Fed’s recent tweak in its inflation policy. The Fed changed its policy of focusing on a target inflation rate to an average rate, meaning it may not tighten policy if inflation overshoots its 2% target.
“We see risk the rates market is underwhelmed by the guidance provided by the Fed, which would support higher back-end rates and a steeper curve,” the Bank of America strategists noted. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid in the past week, touching 0.67% Friday, and it could move higher, meaning bonds may sell-off, if the Fed does not clarify policy around its bond buying program.
Krosby said the stock market is hoping for a dovish Fed. “The market needs that now because fiscal policy is going nowhere,” she said.
BTIG strategist Julian Emanuel said the market could focus on the fact that Congress failed to make headway on fiscal stimulus, if the economic data begins to disappoint.
Retail sales for August are expected Wednesday morning, as the Fed meets. They are expected to rise by 1%, and that should be an important look at whether the lack of enhanced unemployment benefits, which expired July 31, impacted consumer spending. Among other things, Republicans and Democrats could not agree how to replace the $600 weekly payment to the unemployed.
“Depending on the polls and the economic data, the probability of stimulus rises and falls,” said Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy.
“Our view is that next week is just going to be lots of back and forth with the potential for a further extension of the range for the downside, if the political narrative gets more inflamed,” said Emanuel. Emanuel expects the market to remain choppy and fall further into the month of October, as investors worry about the uncertainty around the presidential election.
The Fed’s meeting this week is its last before the election, and analysts expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to sound reassuring that the Fed will do whatever it takes to support the economy. Powell holds a briefing after the meeting Wednesday, and he is expected to also be asked about the potential for higher inflation. The Fed has said it is more concerned about disinflation, but recent inflation data has been hotter than expected, though still well below 2%.
“There is a tug of war between those who say buy chips now because inflation is moving higher, versus those why are saying deflationary forces are still weaving their way into the economy,” said Krosby.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said he expects the Fed to sound reassuring but it’s not likely to discuss a target for bond purchases or the yield curve controls some investors were hoping for. Yield curve control would mean the Fed would try to manage interest rates by targeting its purchases of specific Treasurys. For instance, it may focus on trying to keep longer duration yields lower, and buy the 10-year.
Chandler also noted the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet has recently declined by about $100 billion from its peak, and its bond purchases are falling behind the European Central Bank.
“My sense is the Fed is going to keep saying it’s not worried about inflation. Its bigger worry is downside risks. They’ll repeat their call for fiscal stimulus which after this week seems less likely,” he said.
Chandler said the stock market could remain choppy in the coming week, but he does not expect a sharp selloff. The dollar could decline, if the Fed sounds dovish, and that is a positive for stocks.
“I don’t think a 10% pullback [in Nasdaq] has caused enough pain to have people capitulate. This is just an ordinary correction, and we’re going to make new highs,” he said.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
Election Charts You Need To See: Part 1
First off, our thoughts go out to everyone who was impacted by the tragic events of September 11, 2001—19 years ago today. It is a day to reflect and remember those who were lost.
One of the top requests we’ve had here at LPL Research is for more charts on the election. Over the next week, we will share some of our favorite charts on this very important subject.
Here’s how the S&P 500 Index performs under various presidents and congressional makeups. The best scenario has historically been a Democratic president and Republican Congress, while a Republican president and Democratic Congress has been the weakest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Building on this, a split Congress historically has been one of the best scenarios for investors.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The best scenario under a Republican president is a split Congress, a potential positive for 2020 that has played out after the massive reversal in the stock market since March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Looking at the four-year presidential cycle shows that stocks haven’t been down during a year the president was up for a re-election since FDR in the 1940s, another bullish tailwind for 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another look at this, as stocks historically have done much better when there isn’t a lame duck president.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Active Managers Do an About Face
The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has an index which tracks the exposure of its members to US equity markets. Each week, members are asked to provide a number that represents their exposure to markets. A reading of -200 means they are leveraged short, -100 indicates fully short, 0 is neutral, 100% is fully invested, and 200% indicates leveraged long. Two weeks ago, in our Bespoke Report, we highlighted the fact that the exposure index had moved to one of the highest levels in its 15-year history. Now, just two weeks later, these same active managers have reigned in their exposure considerably as this week's reading dropped from just under 100 to 53.1.
This week's drop was the second-largest one week decline in the index's history and just the 10th time that the index lost more than a third (33 points) in a single week. The most recent occurrence was back in early March in the middle of the Covid crash, and every other prior period where the index saw a similar drop, the S&P 500 was also down every time by an average of 2.3%. Therefore, it's not much of a surprise to see the big drop this week given the big declines in the market. But what about going forward? Do big drops in the NAAIM Index mean a bounce back for markets or further declines?
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Most and Least Heavily Shorted Stocks in the Russell 1,000
Below is an updated look at the most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000. Each of these 30 stocks has at least 15% of its equity float sold short.
At the top of the list is Nordstrom (JWN) with 38.66% of its float sold short. With a YTD decline of 61.86%, the shorts have crushed it with JWN this year.
With its huge portfolio of office and retail real estate, Brookfield Property REIT(BPYU) has the second highest short interest in the Russell 1,000 at 33.7%. BPYU is down 35.7% YTD.
There are plenty of other well-known companies on the list of the most heavily shorted stocks. Examples include American Airlines (AAL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), LendingTree (TREE), Wayfair (W), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), ADT, TripAdvisor (TRIP), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Kohl's (KSS).
One name that is no longer on the list of most shorted stocks is Tesla (TSLA). When we provided an update on short interest back in February (a pre-COVID world), Tesla (TSLA) had more than 17% of its float sold short, but that number is all the way down to 8.3% as of the most recent filing.
These 30 stocks with the highest short interest are down an average of 3.01% since last Wednesday (9/2) when the S&P 500 made its last closing high. That's actually a little bit better than the 3.55% average decline for the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000. And year-to-date, these 30 stocks are up an average of 0.60% versus an average gain of 0.81% for the rest of the index. That's not much of a difference!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a list of the 30 least shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 as a percentage of equity float. None of these stocks have more than 0.71% of their float sold short, and they're mostly made up of more conservative names in the Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has the lowest short interest as a percentage of float in the Russell 1,000 at just 0.36%. Microsoft (MSFT) -- one of the key mega-cap Tech names -- has the second lowest short interest, followed by Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Medtronic (MDT).
Somewhat surprisingly, Amazon (AMZN) is the sixth least shorted stock in the entire Russell 1,000. While AMZN is still thought of as a high-flying momentum name by many investors, its short interest levels tell a much different story, painting it as more of a non-cyclical stock like Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), or Coca- Cola (KO).
While the 30 most heavily shorted stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up 0.60% YTD, the 30 least shorted stocks in the index are up much more at +8%. This group has MSFT, AMZN, HD, and AAPL to thank for that strong performance!
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5 Lessons Learned About Rising Rates
While the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield over the last cycle was decidedly lower, as shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, there were still six extended periods where it rose at least 0.75%, and in two of those it rose almost 2%. Looking ahead, economic growth below potential, slack in the labor market, and an extremely supportive Federal Reserve (Fed) may limit rate pressure in the near term, but with interest rates already low and massive stimulus in place, we believe the overall direction is likely to be higher.
“Even in a falling rate period there are lessons from the last cycle about rising rates,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “Among them: Careful when the Fed stops buying and sometimes the best defense is a good offense.”
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While every economic cycle is unique, the last cycle highlighted these key takeaways about periods of rising rates:
Careful when the Fed stops buying. The two drivers of rising rates last cycle were economic growth and Fed bond purchases, also known as quantitative easing (QE). The Fed buys bonds to keep rates down, but the start of Fed buying has actually been the time when rates rise—likely on expectations that the purchases would help strengthen the economy. These periods also often followed large rate declines either because markets anticipated the start of Fed buying or the economy was faltering. The takeaway: unless the economy is really taking off, any rising-rate period may pause for an extended period, or even reverse, when the Fed backs off bond purchases.
Sometime the best defense is a good offense. Lower-quality, more economically sensitive bond sectors actually performed well during periods of rising rates during the last cycle. Rate gains were largely driven by economic improvement rather than a large pick-up in inflation, and that’s typically a good environment for sectors like high-yield bonds and bank loans. The downside is that these are much riskier bond sectors and don’t provide the potential diversification benefits of higher-quality bonds during periods of stock declines.
Don’t expect TIPS to provide much resilience because of their inflation adjustment. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are high-quality bonds that have provided a little extra insulation against rising rates compared to similarly dated Treasuries when inflation expectations increased. TIPS prices are adjusted for inflation, but even with the adjustment, they are still very sensitive to rates.
Investment-grade corporates can both hurt and help. If credit spreads narrow when rates are rising, investment-grade corporates can post some solid gains in a rising-rate environment, but if spreads are holding steady or even widening, they can be very sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, potentially (although not often) even more sensitive than Treasuries.
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have not provided as much insulation as corporates, but they also have had less downside. While MBS have certainly outperformed Treasuries during periods of rising rates, they have not performed as well as investment-grade corporates. But they also have come with less downside, losing only 1.4% in their worst performing period compared to a 4% loss during the worst period for corporates. With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.
With the Fed still providing strong stimulus and economic growth potentially poised to accelerate, we currently see an increased risk of rates moving higher. We are playing some offense with our equity exposure, which allows us to emphasize a focus on higher-quality bonds. Among bond sectors, we are emphasizing MBS and still prefer investment-grade corporates over Treasuries. History may not repeat, but if it rhymes, this positioning may help add resilience to a fixed income portfolio if rates extend their move off recent lows.
Best and Worst Performing Stocks Since the 9/2 High
Since the S&P 500 and Nasdaq peaked on September 2nd, we've seen rotation out of the post-COVID winners and rotation into laggards in the value space. Below we take a look at the best and worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 since the 9/2 high for the S&P. For each stock, we also include its YTD total return and its percentage change from the 3/23 COVID Crash low through 9/2.
Capri Holdings (CPRI) is up more than any other stock in the Russell 1,000 since 9/2 with a gain of 17.43%. Even after the recent gains, however, Capri -- the holding company for brands like Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, and Versace -- is still down 52.9% year-to-date.
Only four other stocks are up more than 10% since 9/2 -- Beyond Meat (BYND), PVH, Virtu Financial (VIRT), and Reinsurance Group (RGA). Interestingly, BYND and VIRT are also up big (~80%) year-to-date, while PVH and RGA are both down more than 35% year-to-date.
What stands out the most about the list of winners is that only one Technology stock made the cut -- Sabre (SABR). Most names come from the two consumer sectors including cruise-liners like Carnival (CCL), Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise (NCLH), Kohl's (KSS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Six Flags (SIX), Foot Locker (FL), and Ralph Lauren (RL). Both UBER and LYFT also made the cut with gains of 6% since 9/2. The 30 biggest winners since 9/2 are still down an average of 20% year-to-date, while the rest of the stocks in the Russell 1,000 are up an average of 1.46% YTD.
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While only one Technology stock made the list of biggest winners since 9/2, the sector accounts for two-thirds of the 30 biggest losers over the same time frame. As shown below, since 9/2, the six worst performing stocks in the Russell 1,000 and ten of the worst twelve all come from Tech. Notably, though, these 30 stocks that have all fallen more than 12% since 9/2 are still up an average of 5.6% YTD. Were it not for the horrid YTD performance of the Energy stocks that made the list, the average YTD gain would be even higher.
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Typical Early September Weakness Recovers Mid-Month Sells Off Month-End
As of yesterday’s close the market was down more than the historical average performance in September. DJIA was down nearly -3.3%, S&P 500 was down -4.8%, NASDAQ was off 7.9%, Russell 1000 was down -5.2% and Russell 2000 lost 3.7%. Today’s rally looks like the beginning of a textbook mid-month recovery rally However, the second half of September has historically been weaker than the first half. The week after options expiration week can be treacherous with S&P 500 logging 23 weekly losses in 30 years since 1990. End-of-quarter portfolio restructuring, and window dressing can amplify the impacts of any negative headlines.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 11th, 2020
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.13.20
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
$FDX
$ADBE
$CBRL
$ASPU
$LEN
$DAVA
$BRC
$CMD
$ISR
$APOG
$ICMB
$HMY
$VNCE
$CSBR
$EARS
$AFIB
$OSH
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Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 9.14.20 Before Market Open:
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(NONE.)
Monday 9.14.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 9.15.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 9.15.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 9.16.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 9.16.20 After Market Close:
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(NONE.)
Thursday 9.17.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 9.17.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 9.18.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 9.18.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
FedEx Corp. $232.79
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.54 per share on revenue of $17.46 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.78 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 16.72% with revenue increasing by 2.42%. Short interest has decreased by 15.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 46.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.3% above its 200 day moving average of $150.90. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,504 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.6% move in recent quarters.
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Adobe Inc. $471.35
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.41 per share on revenue of $3.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $2.40 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.62% with revenue increasing by 11.15%. Short interest has decreased by 14.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.2% above its 200 day moving average of $376.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 18,006 contracts of the $455.00 put expiring on Friday, September 25, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.
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Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. $136.79
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $483.68 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.49) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 120.37% with revenue decreasing by 38.55%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 30.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.5% above its 200 day moving average of $121.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,012 contracts of the $190.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
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Aspen Group, Inc. $11.54
Aspen Group, Inc. (ASPU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $14.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 63.64% with revenue increasing by 37.67%. Short interest has increased by 56.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.3% above its 200 day moving average of $8.72. The stock has averaged a 11.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Lennar Corp. $77.48
Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:35 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $5.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.03% with revenue decreasing by 9.00%. Short interest has decreased by 16.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.6% above its 200 day moving average of $59.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
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Endava $53.03
Endava (DAVA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:20 AM ET on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $107.96 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.18 to $0.20 per share on revenue of $105.00 million to $106.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 26.92% with revenue increasing by 9.61%. Short interest has increased by 56.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.7% above its 200 day moving average of $47.06. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Brady Corp. $45.34
Brady Corp. (BRC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 16, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $260.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 19.12% with revenue decreasing by 11.95%. Short interest has decreased by 37.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% below its 200 day moving average of $49.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
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Cantel Medical Corp. $49.12
Cantel Medical Corp. (CMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $232.80 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 87.30% with revenue decreasing by 2.79%. Short interest has decreased by 19.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.7% below its 200 day moving average of $51.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 17.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
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IsoRay Inc $0.63
IsoRay Inc (ISR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $2.77 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 43.97%. Short interest has decreased by 26.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 33.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.7% below its 200 day moving average of $0.68. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Apogee Enterprises, Inc. $19.49
Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 19% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.78% with revenue increasing by 179.79%. Short interest has decreased by 4.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% below its 200 day moving average of $25.63. Option traders are pricing in a 10.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.4% move in recent quarters.
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]
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The Li-ion battery modules also have a lot of stored energy. The life support systems rely upon the power they provide and therefore make them highly important when considering the laser coverage.
The Li-ion battery modules also have a lot of stored energy. The life support systems rely upon the power they provide and therefore make them highly important when considering the laser coverage.
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When considering the placement of the laser, one has to consider the directions the debris originates from, the placement of the critical components and the placement of units with high amounts of stored energy [33]. The protection of the solar arrays does not have to be taken into account, as mentioned above. It is almost impossible to precisely compare the importance for laser coverage for every individual ISS module. This is therefore not preferable. A better idea might be to categorize the different modules based on their importance to ISS’ missions and crew. Because one cannot compare the modules all individually, the ISS’ structures are divided in three categories (sorted to increasing importance for laser coverage):
+
When considering the placement of the laser, one has to consider the directions the debris originates from, the placement of the critical components and the placement of units with high amounts of stored energy [32]. The protection of the solar arrays does not have to be taken into account, as mentioned above. It is almost impossible to precisely compare the importance for laser coverage for every individual ISS module. This is therefore not preferable. A better idea might be to categorize the different modules based on their importance to ISS’ missions and crew. Because one cannot compare the modules all individually, the ISS’ structures are divided in three categories (sorted to increasing importance for laser coverage):
-
*The first category includes the components/modules that are only of importance when considering financial damage and the indirect damage it could cause to the rest of the space station. The modules and parts of this category are marked blue [34].
+
*The first category includes the components/modules that are only of importance when considering financial damage and the indirect damage it could cause to the rest of the space station. The modules and parts of this category are marked blue.
-
*The second category includes the components/modules that have a low risk of debris impact and also have critical components and functionality or are inhabited by the astronauts. The modules and parts of this category are marked yellow [34].
+
*The second category includes the components/modules that have a low risk of debris impact and also have critical components and functionality or are inhabited by the astronauts. The modules and parts of this category are marked yellow.
-
*The third category includes firstly, the components/modules that have a high risk of debris impact and also have critical components/functionality or are inhabited by the astronauts and secondly, the components/modules that have lots of stored energy which after an impact, could become a bigger indirect threat to the rest of the space station. The modules and parts of this category are marked red [34].
+
*The third category includes firstly, the components/modules that have a high risk of debris impact and also have critical components/functionality or are inhabited by the astronauts and secondly, the components/modules that have lots of stored energy which after an impact, could become a bigger indirect threat to the rest of the space station. The modules and parts of this category are marked red.
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+
===Debris orientation===
===Debris orientation===
Revision as of 21:35, 24 June 2019
Contents
1 Group members
2 Problem statement
3 Objectives
4 Approach
5 USE Stakeholders
5.1 User
5.2 Society
5.3 Enterprise
6 Requirements
7 Active defense method
8 Legal issues for laser placement on ISS
8.1 ISS Legal Framework
8.2 Space treaties
8.3 Influence on system proposal
9 Cost of Implementation
9.1 Development
9.2 Transportation
10 Laser system
10.1 Energy available on the ISS
10.2 Laser specifications
10.3 Laser ablation
10.4 Critical parts of the ISS
10.5 Debris orientation
10.6 Laser(s) placement
11 Model
12 Results
12.1 Discussion
13 USE Scenario
13.1 Development
13.2 Ownership, control and management
13.3 System usage and feedback
13.4 User scenario
14 Conclusion
15 Milestones and Deliverables
16 Planning
17 References
18 State of the art references
Group members
Member
ID number
Program
E-mail
Rob de Mooij 1017797 Biomedical Engineering [email protected]
Ilja van Oort 1001232 Biomedical Engineering [email protected]
Sara Tjon 1247050 Applied Physics [email protected]
Thomas Pilaet 0999458 Industrial Design [email protected]
Joris Zandbergen 1231962 Industrial Design [email protected]
Problem statement
The problem of space debris is becoming bigger and bigger. This debris is the consequence of decades of objects being launched into space and a lot of this debris causes a danger to other functional satellites. This debris consists of used rocket-stages, non-operational satellites and parts that were created through collisions and anti-satellite tests. Since the 70s this problem has been getting increased attention and big space associations like NASA and the ESA are constantly tracking this debris and preventing the creation of more. That is why most newly built satellites have built-in procedures that make sure the satellites de-orbit when they become out of order [1]. However, there has already been put a lot of material into orbit and since these objects can reach speeds of 8 km/s they can cause serious damage [2].
One would say that this would not be a big issue considering the vastness of space, however the opposite is true. The chance of a collision between a satellite and a piece of debris larger than 10 centimeters in low earth orbit was about twenty percent a year in 2007. This percentage rose to fifty percent just in 2009 [2]. This chance of impact creates a great risk for operational satellites and even more importantly for the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS is constantly assessing the risks of space debris hitting it and safety measures are already applied in order to decrease the chance of critical damage. Using radar and telescopes, debris down to 10 centimeters in diameter can be tracked and therefore also avoided by the ISS [1]. The ISS’s crucial parts are protected by a dual layer wall, called a Whipple shield, which shields them from debris with a diameter of smaller than 1 centimeter [3]. The biggest danger for the ISS is therefore space debris with a diameter approximately between 1 and 10 centimeter, for which the ISS currently cannot defend itself against. For simplicity, we will mainly refer to this type of debris as ‘small debris’. Although the risk of such a fatal collision is small, a single collision with this type of space debris could be catastrophic to the ISS and the crew inhabiting it. The astronauts on board the space station already have a stressful and high-risk function. Finding a solution for this problem is therefore of great importance. As long as space debris maintains its undeniable presence in LEO, no spacecraft is safe from the dangers it presents, especially considering the continuation of the International Space Station program until 2030 [4]. Therefore, action in the form of research and pilot-tests should be taken as soon as possible to ensure the safety of the ISS in relation to the particularly dangerous centimeter sized space debris.
Objectives
Determine the problems’ stakeholders and their requirements
Research and compare methods of active defense of the ISS from small debris.
Analyze the available detection, tracking and remediation systems in their ability to actively protect ISS from small space debris objects.
Implement a model which simulates the active protection of the ISS.
Test and analyze the systems feasibility on the basis of the models’ results together with the stakeholders’ requirements.
Approach
In this report, different methodologies will be analyzed as to assess whether they are fit for the defense of the ISS. Next, the feasibility of the methodology that satisfies the requirements best will also be assessed. The legal and financial aspects of the proposed solution will be discussed. The technical feasibility of the defense system will be tested using a model in MATLAB. Firstly, the debris environment will be modelled by simplifying debris dynamics and considering a variety of conditions. The geometry of the ISS will be simplified and its structures will be categorized according to the magnitude of the threat posed by orbital debris in case of collision. The chosen defense system and its influence on the orbit of the debris will be characterized and implemented in the model. Incoming debris will be simulated both when the system is and is not implemented. The effectivity of the system can then be compared by analyzing these results. Parameters related to the defense system (that could also be varied in a realistic context) will be varied to determine the most effective way to employ the solution. Finally, a user scenario will be described, in which the proposed methodology is placed in a practical context.
USE Stakeholders
Below the stakeholders which are involved in (protecting) the ISS will be discussed. This will be done in the USE-format (User-Society-Enterprise). First of all, a summary of the corresponding stakeholders will be given. Then, they will be discussed in more detail.
User
Passengers aboard the ISS: Normally there are six people aboard the ISS. Their main responsibility is to perform experiments and repair malfunctioning parts of the ISS [5].
ISS Mission Control Centers: Responsible for the proper functioning of their own modules and have continuous communication with other control centers and the ISS itself [6].
Society
Research institutions: Many research institutions from the federal and private sector have research located on the ISS. This research is focused on many different types of sectors [6].
Enterprise
Partnered space associations: The five partnered space agencies closely work together in maintaining and building the ISS. All five also provide astronauts for the ISS crew [6].
User
There are two groups of users for this proposal. These are the astronauts and the ISS control centers. Currently, these two groups already work together in protecting the ISS. This specific collaboration is mostly focussed on protecting the ISS (and the astronauts) from space debris bigger than 10 centimeters. Debris of this size can be tracked with radars from the Earth’s surface. When a piece of debris is observed and it appears that its orbit will bring it close to the ISS, the astronauts will receive a warning from the control center (in Houston). Depending on the chance of collision the astronauts either receive a yellow or red alert from the ground. Whether the control center then performs avoidance maneuvers depends on the chance of collision and on the consequences of such maneuvers on mission objectives [7] [8].
As said all these avoidance maneuvers are performed by mission control and the astronauts do not have to perform or activate any of these maneuvers themselves from within the ISS. They are however aware of when these maneuvers are happening. This would be different in the scenario for our proposal. It is very likely that in our proposal a piece of debris from 1 to 10 centimeters could only be detected 10 seconds before it would (potentially) hit the ISS. In this timeframe nor the control center nor the astronauts would be able to react in time. Therefore our system would be made autonomous.
Society
The main advantage of the ISS is the platform it provides for research. Its size and passengers give research institutions the ability to perform research in zero gravity for a long-term period. The research conducted on the ISS is in fields such as astrobiology, astronomy and materials science. The experiments in the ISS can be accessed and modified by the astronauts on the station on request of scientists on Earth [9]. In conclusion, many research institutions on Earth have a stake in the experiments conducted on the ISS. The advances are not only important for institutions in the field of astronomy, but in many more as well [9]. This means the whole of humanity gets benefit from the results of the experiments on the ISS.
The research on the ISS is located in different areas of the ISS, mainly in allocated modules [10]. If one of these modules would get damaged, the (repair) costs would be large. The module would have to be replaced or repaired. Plus, the research inside the module could be lost or unusable. For this reason, among other things, research institutions (and the whole of humanity) benefit from (at least) the research modules being protected from space debris. Since the research modules are used by institutions from different countries it would only be fair if each module is equally protected, because one cannot objectively state that for example American research is more important than Japanese research.
Enterprise
Five different space agencies are part of the ISS program, namely NASA (United States), Roscosmos (Russia), JAXA (Japan), ESA (Europe), and CSA (Canada). The ownership and use of the space station is established by intergovernmental treaties and agreements. The station is divided into two sections, a Russian and an American section [6] [11]. All these space associations have put a lot of money in building the station [12]. Seeing it get damaged by space debris is thus very undesirable for them. Therefore it would be in their interest to protect the station through for example our system. As said in the 'Society' section above it would be desirable if the whole of the ISS, or at least the most vital parts, is equally protected and none of the space agencies is favoured by our system. Next to this it would also be desirable (if not required) if the system cannot be used maliciously. It should operate independently from interests from space agencies. The main goal should be to protect the ISS as a whole. However, the use and ownership of the modules/systems on the ISS is set out in already existing agreements, which will be further elaborated later on.
Requirements
The method must be able to detect and track space debris of 1 to 10 centimeters autonomously.
The method must be operable until at least 2030 [4].
The method's costs must fit reasonably within the space associations budget.
The method must be able to operate on the available energy stored in the ISS or the system’s own stored energy.
The method must not increase the amount of space debris in orbit and therefore increase the chance of collision with satellites (and other pieces of debris) in orbit.
The method's legislations must make sure the system cannot be misused for military purposes.
The method must be operable at all times.
The method must communicate its current status at all times to mission control centers to make sure malfunctions can be detected.
Active defense method
Debris Remediation
So far, concepts and developments concerning orbital debris have mainly considered suitable methods for the active removal of (large) debris, instead of the defense of spacecraft against small, immediately threatening debris. Therefore, in choosing an appropriate methodology of defending the ISS against this type of debris, we will consider methods originally conceived for active debris removal and determine how well these could adapt into a potential defense mechanism for the ISS.
A common way to classify techniques for the active removal of debris is whether or not it requires some form of contact between the device and debris [13]. In particular, techniques that make use of rigid contact (such as a robotic arm) do not seem to be well suited for defending against small debris. This type of remediation involves a stable connection between the device and debris, which is particularly problematic in the case of small, tumbling debris of varying shapes and sizes. Clearly, these techniques are way more fit to remove large space debris from orbit [14]. An exception to this is the employment of a capturing net. A useful property of this technique is its compatibility for different sizes of debris. Furthermore, targets can be captured from a larger distance (as, in contrast to other techniques requiring rigid contact, the device does not have to dock to the debris) and capture does not need to be as precisely controlled.
Alternatively, techniques that do not require such a stable connection between the device and debris may generally be more applicable to our case. An interesting example is drag augmentation: debris can effectively be removed from orbit by increasing the drag it experiences in its trajectory. Similar to the net capture method, debris of varying sizes can be remediated with this technique from a relatively large distance. One way to accomplish this (currently under development by the ESA [15]), uses foam that sticks to the debris surface, causing a significant increase in the area-to-mass ratio of the object (which, in turn, results in an increased drag).
In contrast to these techniques, some methods do not require any form of contact between the device and debris. These contactless techniques avoid many of the issues related to achieving a stable connection between a device and an orbital debris object. Moreover, these techniques can remediate debris from a much larger distance than any of the contact-based alternatives discussed. Important examples are a laser system, as well as ion beam technology.
Another important distinction to be made in deciding how the ISS can best be protected is the localization of the remediation system. The system can operate either on the ground or in space. In case of ground-based systems, contactless techniques are the only methods available. In particular, the employment of laser systems on ground for the active removal of debris has already been researched extensively [16]. An obvious advantage of ground-based laser is that they do not have to be sent into space, which makes it both economically and technically more attractive. Furthermore, reparations can be made much more easily to constructions on ground. However, the system must be able to track and alter the trajectory of the debris within a matter of seconds. In order to accomplish this, a precision and tracking velocity beyond our current capabilities is required. Therefore, these systems are simply not suitable for rapid remediation of threatening debris.
In conclusion, the system must be situated somewhere in space. This system could either be mounted on one or more satellites or on the ISS itself. In case the system is mounted on one or more satellites, these satellites must orbit close to the ISS to allow them to remediate incoming debris. In order to properly defend the station, a number of these satellites must be employed which can take care of debris coming from different directions. This would most likely be very expensive. Furthermore, changing the trajectory of the incredibly fast orbital debris objects requires a large amount of energy. If mounted on the ISS itself, the system can benefit from the energy supplied by the solar panels on the space station. Additionally, reparations could be performed by the crew aboard the ISS if the system would reside here.
Another reason why the best option would be to attach the remediation system to the ISS are the legal issues that arise when not attaching the system to the ISS. Currently, the legal framework of the ISS says that the agency that provides and develops a new ISS module is the agency that retains ownership of this module. In this legal framework there are more rules set out for agreements about malicious use, cooperation and so forth. Not attaching the system to the ISS will put the system outside of the ISS’ legal framework. This could lead to possible legal issues, because the system is not actually part of the ISS. To avoid such issues the system has to become an actual part of the ISS. Looking at the above factors, we conclude that the system should be mounted on the ISS itself.
It seems intuitive that such a system must make use of a contactless remediation technique. Any method based on contact would require a significantly smaller distance between the ISS and the debris, which simply would not leave enough time to deorbit the threatening debris. Now, there are two main types of space-based contactless debris removal: laser systems and ion beam systems. However, an ion beam system such as the Ion Beam Shepherd must retain a (constant) short distance between itself and the target, which would be highly impractical when mounted on the ISS [17].
In recent years, research has been done about the development of space-based laser systems [18][19]. These were mostly aimed at the active removal of space debris, without directly considering the immediate protection of the ISS. These laser systems are capable of ablating small debris in the Low Earth Orbit and can have a range greatly exceeding contact-dependent removal systems. Therefore, such space-based removal systems may also have the potential to actively defend the ISS. In conclusion, the inclusion of one or more laser systems on the ISS is the best way to actively defend it against small debris.
Concluding, the most viable solution for remediation system is attached to the ISS, but does not have rigid contact with the oncoming debris. A laser system could be a good option for this since it is easy to repair and easy to automate. The former can be done through EVAs (extravehicular activities) by the ISS crew. The latter is necessary since the response time for ablating the debris will most likely be just a few seconds. This is the case, because the current detection systems for localizing debris between one and ten centimeters only has a range of about one hundred kilometers. Elaboration on this detection system will follow below.
Detection
Detection of small threatening debris was proposed by Ebisuzaki et al. to be carried out by the EUSO-telescope, which was originally developed for the JEM-EUSO program and devoted to the detection of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. It has a field of view of about 30° and was calculated to be capable of detecting debris with a minimum size of 7.4 mm from 100 km distance. Therefore, it is particularly suitable for the detection of centimeter-sized debris. Detection can occur optimally in astronomical twilight, when the earth is in local night and the ISS and debris are still illuminated by the sun. In this way, orbital debris can be easily recognized against a dark background. This occurs during a time period of approximately 5 minutes during every orbit of 90 minutes. The system can also operate in daytime, although the increased amount of background photons may result in a larger amount of false positives. Therefore, it might be beneficial to pass the detection data to a list of the relative positions of operating satellites with respect to the ISS in order to prevent unintended targeting. In order to distinguish the unique pattern of the debris from the background, Ebisuzaki et al. suggest the employment of a linear track trigger algorithm to track the trajectory of orbital debris over a predefined time window. In daytime, this time window might have to be extended in order to ensure proper recognition of this debris. However, as the operation of the telescope depends on the detection of reflected sunlight, the system cannot function during nighttime. This is a significant limitation of the ablation system and should be addressed in future investigations on the subject. However, we will primarily consider the ability of the ablation system to track and deorbit threatening debris.
Legal issues for laser placement on ISS
ISS Legal Framework
The ISS is a joint project between several space associations of different countries and regions. These countries and regions are: Europe, the United States, Russia, Canada and Japan [6]. Each of these regions has their own laws and judicial rules. As to find a compromise between these different laws a legal framework especially for the ISS was set up. It defines “the rights and obligations of each of the countries and their jurisdiction and control with respect to their Space Station elements” [20].
Since this framework is quite a vast set of legal rules a selection was made on the rules that apply to this project. A summary of these rules can be found below:
The International Space Station Intergovernmental Agreement (abbreviated to IGA): 'a long term international co-operative frame-work on the basis of genuine partnership, for the detailed design, development, operation, and utilisation of a permanently inhabited civil Space Station for peaceful purposes, in accordance with international law'
National jurisdiction in outer space: The Intergovernmental Agreement allows the Space Station Partners States to extend their national jurisdiction in outer space, so the elements they provide (e.g. laboratories) are assimilated to the territories of the Partners States.
The Space Station International Partners can barter or sell their unused utilisation rights among themselves and to other non-participants to the Station’s programme. The common philosophy of this approach is that goods and services are exchanged by space agencies without exchange of funds. The bartering system has enabled a significant reduction of technical and financial risks and has supported the process of standardisation and commonality in the Space Station Programme.
‘Cross-waiver of liability': prohibits any of the five Partners or their related entities to claim against another Partner for damage sustained as a result of ISS activities. Exceptions are, for instance, claims arising between a Partner and its own related entities. For example claims between the European Space Agency and one of its users, will be covered by contracts or subcontracts that will not implicate the other international Partners. Other exceptions to the cross-waiver of liability include claims for damages caused by wilful misconduct, claims made by a person for bodily injury or death, and intellectual property claims.
United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space
The mission of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) is "to review the scope of international cooperation in peaceful uses of outer space, to devise programmes in this field to be undertaken under United Nations auspices, to encourage continued research and to disseminate information on outer space matters and to study legal problems arising from the exploration of outer space." [21]
Space treaties
During and after the Cold War several treaties were set up as to limit the chances of an arms race in space. As mutually assured destruction became the deterrent strategy between the two superpowers (USSR and USA) during that time, many countries worked together to avoid extending the threat of mass destruction weapons to space and space based launchers.
The first of these treaties was the ‘Outer Space Treaty’ [22] by the U.N., which was first signed by many of the world’s countries in 1967. The treaty banned the placing of weapons of mass destruction in space (including the orbit of Earth). Besides, it emphasized that the use of outer space should be carried out for the benefit and interest of all of mankind. Therefore the exploration and use of space should always be in a peaceful manner. One should note that this treaty does not ban the placement of weapons in space in general, only nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.
Following the Outer Space Treaty another treaty was set up in 2006: the Space Preservation Treaty [23]. This treaty was a proposed UN General Assembly resolution against all space weapons. Only the US voted against. Again in 2008 a new draft was submitted by China and Russia. Again, the US opposed it, because they saw security concerns over its space assets even though the treaty explicitly affirmed the inherent right of self-defence for all states. Eventually in 2014 the General Assembly of the UN passed two resolutions on preventing an arms race in outer space. The first of these resolutions was called ‘Prevention of an arms race in outer space’. It “call[s] on all States, in particular those with major space capabilities, to contribute actively to the peaceful use of outer space, prevent an arms race there, and refrain from actions contrary to that objective.” 178 countries voted in favour to none against. Israel and the US abstained. The second of the resolutions was called ‘No first placement of weapons in outer space’. This emphasises the prevention of an arms race in space and states that "other measures could contribute to ensuring that weapons were not placed in outer space." 126 countries voted in favour to 4 against (the U.S. among others), with 46 abstentions (EU member states abstained on the resolution).
Influence on system proposal
The above named legal framework and U.N. space treaties have influence on the system proposed in this project. The ISS Partners (the five collaborating space agencies) will again have to reaffirm their promise to not make malicious use of the modules on the ISS, which the laser system will become a part of. If this promise is broken legal measures will and can be taken. Since all Partners have made this promise (and it is included in the ISS legal framework), there is no need to equally divide the costs of the system to all Partners. Instead, it is possible that one Partner (e.g. NASA) pays for the system and thus gains ownership of the system. Through the barter system that space agency gains favours from other agencies, since they now provided a system that also protects the modules and research that the other agencies provided. The size of these favours will depend on the amount of modules and research that each agency has provided in the ISS. The control of the system can also be in the hands of the agency that funded the system. Doing this would most likely increase the effectiveness of the system, since all of the control center operates smoothly, because the work culture is the same. It is necessary however that the space agency that is in control of the system gives updates of what the system is doing. The system remains a weapon and therefore it is likely that the other agencies will desire insight on what the system is doing. That the system could be seen as a weapon is and most likely will not become a problem. Currently, weapons such as this laser are allowed in space. The Space Preservation Treaty does call for the complete ban of weapons in space, but this treaty also says that the use of weapons in self-defense is still allowed. Since, this laser system would be created for the sole purpose of defending the ISS this system would also still be in accordance with this treaty.
Cost of Implementation
Development
To give an impression on how much this project is going to cost we will have to look at other projects with a similar motive. Since there has never been a fully developed laser for space, we cannot compare our case to those. There has been military project which purpose was to develop a 100W laser [24]. The costs of these projects cost will be used to give an impression of which parts of the whole project cost what. Firstly, the laser module itself. Since the laser module we propose has not been physically developed this still has to be done. In a similar project, funded by the U.S. army two companies both received 10 million dollars to develop a High Power 100kW class laser. 10 million dollars is therefore, since no similar projects have been announced, the closest estimated cost for the development of the development costs.
For the funding, since the for our laser specification a CAN-laser is proposed (which is a method developed in EU funded research), there is a high chance that this project also would be further developed using funding of the EU. ESA would therefore be the biggest financial stakeholder in the development phase [25].
Transportation
The costs for transporting 1 kg of material to the I.S.S. has dropped to $2720 with the introduction of space-x’s falcon-9 rocket [26]. However, since there is still no indication of how large and heavy the complete laser system will be, there can also be made no concrete claims on the costs of the transportation. What can be done is making an estimated guess of this cost. For this estimated guess we can look at other similar sized ISS modules or laser systems and their masses. One of which is the RemoveDebris minisat module. With a mass of Approx. 100 kilograms [27], it would result into the transportation costs of about $272.000. However, considering the mass of existing industrial grade lasers with a similar output energy, these costs would be a lot higher. Such a fiber laser system would weigh between 650 kg and 3600 kg [28], which results in transportation costs of $1.768.000 till $9.792.000.
In conclusion it can be stated that the overall costs for the implementation of such a solution would be between Approx. $10.272.000 and $19.792.000. However, this is a very rough estimation can therefore not be an argument to asses the financial feasibility.
Laser system
Energy available on the ISS
Figure 1: ISS electrical system
Photovoltaic panels acquire most of the energy needed on the ISS. Only for the periodic propulsion, the ISS uses fuel in the form of rocket propellant which is being refilled every now and then. The solar wings can generate up to 80 - 120 kW of electrical energy when the ISS is illuminated by the sun. At this point, 60% of that energy is being used to charge ISS’ batteries. These batteries are used for the “eclipse” part of the orbit of the ISS, because then the solar wings produce almost no energy. The output voltage of the solar arrays is about 138V DC. Firstly, the voltage from the solar array is roughly regulated by the SSU (see Figure 1), which makes sure the output voltage of the solar array does not have too much peaks or drops. Then the DCSU is used to switch between the input or output stages of the battery unit and the solar arrays. Subsequently, the MBSU does the switch regulating for the individual DDCU’s, which convert the 173V DC to 120V DC which then will be used as power through the whole of the ISS [29].
As previously mentioned, the battery is used to cover the ISS’ power usage when the solar array is not producing enough. The ISS has 24 Li-ion batteries together with 24 BCDU’s, which have a maximum output of 158.4 kW [30]. Since the laser system would need to be operable at any time, even when the PV panels do not produce any electricity, it can only rely on the batteries maximum output of 158.4 kW. The laser would not have to draw, when firing the laser, power for a longer period of time than approximately 10 seconds. This means that the capacity of the batteries would not be the bottleneck [29]. One option to increase the total amount of power the lasers can use is to add extra li-ion batteries to the laser modules.
Laser specifications
We will consider the specifications of the Coherent Amplification Network (CAN) laser, which is a novel fibre-based concept and was considered to be the laser system best fit for remediation of debris within the size range of 1 to 10 centimeters by Ebisuzaki et al. An intense beam can be produced by sending out a large sequence of laser pulses. For this specific purpose, one of the primary reasons for choosing this laser is its high electrical efficiency. In order to fend off the debris heading towards the ISS with high relative velocities (of more than 10 km/s), a fast response and high average power is essential for successful defense. The most important specifications of the CAN laser concept are described as follows [14]:
The laser system is capable of ablating debris at a distance of approximately 100 km from the ISS. Therefore, if we consider the relative velocity of space debris, the system generally has less than 10 seconds to fend off incoming debris.
The proposed laser system consists of 10.000 fibers. Since each fiber can provide 1 mJ of laser energy, the total energy in a pulse is 10 J.
In case the laser operates at a high repetition rate (of 104 kHz), the laser can deliver average powers of about 100 kW.
The laser can be aimed with a maximum angular velocity of approximately 0.1 rad/s.
Using trains of pulses, the laser system can evaluate the surface condition of the debris, allowing for optimal interaction between the beam and the debris.
However, it should be noted that many of these specifications are conceptual in nature and have not yet been properly tested in practice. Since the system is still in development, further improvements could also be made in case the system proves to be insufficient for the defense of the ISS against small debris.
Figure 2: CAN Laser concept
Laser ablation
Laser ablation is the process of removing material from a solid surface by irradiating it with a laser. Through laser pulses with low intensity, the material is heated and evaporates or sublimates. Through laser pulses with high intensity, the material turns into plasma [31]. The latter is the case for the CAN laser we use.
Figure 3: Laser ablation [14]
When the laser, with a higher intensity than a specified ablation threshold, is focused on the debris surface, the material of the debris is ejected as ablation plasma. Because of the ablation plasma, the debris is decelerated, reducing its velocity by ∆v. This is a consequence of the conservation of momentum. This phenomenon is illustrated in Figure 3. When ∆v is large enough, debris will re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere. When the laser operates over large distances, the pulse energy is limited, as a result of diffraction. Namely, the light from a laser beam is always somewhat divergent.This means that the laser’s energy can no longer be focussed on the debris in case the debris is far away. The spinning effects or the orientation with respect to the laser pulse are not taken into account. Using high repetition laser pulses, the orientation and angular velocity of the debris can be determined. Once these characteristics are known, ablation can be executed for optimised laser ablation. [19]
Critical parts of the ISS
Figure 4: Mapping of the three importance of protection level for the laser coverage.
To consider the placement and number of lasers needed to protect the ISS the importance of the modules and components of the ISS must be considered. Too many lasers would be needed to cover the ISS and all its modules. This would make the financial and energy costs too high and therefore unfeasible. This is why priority has to be given to certain modules and components to make distinctions in the amount of protection they need, when considering the placement of the laser(s). This is done by taking into account multiple aspects which will be explained in the following paragraphs.
The ISS Partners have already applied and developed protection for small sized space debris and meteorites. Wipple shields protect critical parts of the ISS to prevent the loss of the critical functionality. These critical parts are not only essential life support components but also components with a lot of stored energy in them, like the pressurized storage tanks, located at the US’s quest airlock, for the liquid oxygen and nitrogen. If they leak, possible chemical reactions or explosions could even cause more harm than the original impact itself. The space station's gyroscopes, located at the Z1 truss, also have a lot of energy stored within the components. The spinning disks could cause damage to the space station if penetrated by a debris impact [32]. The ISS Partners are constantly assessing and mapping where on the space station impacts most frequently occur. Within this render you see that most of the impacts are coming from the front and impact the JEM, Node 1 and Columbus modules. These are also the parts of the ISS which are most protected by Stuffed Whipple shields. Most of the essential life-support systems are also not located in those modules [32]. The oxygen generation systems and water filtration components are located in Node 3 and in the Russian service module. It can also be observed that the solar arrays are not taken into account for the impact frequency render [33]. This might be because these modules are not as critical for life support and therefore are not considered in the threat assessment. As shown in Figure 4, the Soyuz and progress modules also have a considerable amount of impact threat.
The Li-ion battery modules also have a lot of stored energy. The life support systems rely upon the power they provide and therefore make them highly important when considering the laser coverage.
When considering the placement of the laser, one has to consider the directions the debris originates from, the placement of the critical components and the placement of units with high amounts of stored energy [32]. The protection of the solar arrays does not have to be taken into account, as mentioned above. It is almost impossible to precisely compare the importance for laser coverage for every individual ISS module. This is therefore not preferable. A better idea might be to categorize the different modules based on their importance to ISS’ missions and crew. Because one cannot compare the modules all individually, the ISS’ structures are divided in three categories (sorted to increasing importance for laser coverage):
The first category includes the components/modules that are only of importance when considering financial damage and the indirect damage it could cause to the rest of the space station. The modules and parts of this category are marked blue.
The second category includes the components/modules that have a low risk of debris impact and also have critical components and functionality or are inhabited by the astronauts. The modules and parts of this category are marked yellow.
The third category includes firstly, the components/modules that have a high risk of debris impact and also have critical components/functionality or are inhabited by the astronauts and secondly, the components/modules that have lots of stored energy which after an impact, could become a bigger indirect threat to the rest of the space station. The modules and parts of this category are marked red.
Debris orientation
Figure 5: ISS Orientation
The mean altitude at which the ISS orbits earth varies at around 400 km, depending on the density of the atmosphere and operational circumstances. This means that the space station operates on a fairly low orbit within the low earth orbit (LEO). At this low altitude, drag makes space debris fall to the earth more, clearing the space of most space debris. However, due to the size of the ISS, it is still at risk of collisions. [35]
The velocity needed for a stable orbit at the altitude of the ISS is about 7.7 km/s, which is also roughly the velocity of the space debris that could hit the ISS. When debris travels in the same direction and orbit as the ISS, it will probably never do damage. They would almost never collide and even if they did, the relative velocities of the collisions would be too low to cause any major damage. However, most debris that could hit the ISS does not travel in the same direction as the ISS. Since the debris in an orbit around Earth are not all at the exact same altitude and do not all have the same direction. The approach of the debris to the ISS can come from any direction. However, not all debris that can hit the ISS originates from a stable orbit. When the velocity of something in orbit is too low, it will fall down to Earth. This could lead to a collision with the ISS on their path down to Earth. The chance of collision from debris or another object from below the ISS is nihil. Therefore this will not be taken into consideration in the model.
The debris going in the same direction as the ISS will not have a high relative velocity to the ISS, so it is likely that this will result in no to very little damage. In a head on collision, the impact velocity can be up to 16 km/s, which is roughly twice the stable orbit velocity at the height of the ISS. Figure 5 shows the different directions relative to the ISS. In conclusion. the directions dangerous debris can come from are the forward, overhead, starboard and port directions or combinations of these.
Laser(s) placement
It is crucial to determine where exactly on the ISS the lasers should be placed. Many aspects must be taken into account. Firstly, the laser must have a clear view of space, so that no part of the ISS itself gets in the way. Secondly, the laser must be attached firmly to the space station. Lastly, the laser system should be placed where it can be reached by the astronauts, so that potential maintenance can be performed, such as reparations.
The critical parts of the ISS were mentioned previously (see Critical Parts). In this chapter the different modules of the space station were distributed into different categories of importance. The modules which are marked red, are the most vulnerable to space debris. Therefore, the protection of these modules should have the highest priority. Such modules are mainly located at the frontside, the backside and some are in-between the solar panels. When determining the placement of the lasers, the focus is therefore on these red marked modules.
The model in Matlab is used to see how much debris is ablated when one or more lasers are located at different places. The best location for the lasers would be on the frontside of the ISS, because most debris is coming from the forward direction as mentioned before and the relative velocity of the debris heading towards the frontside is higher than debris coming from other directions. Furthermore, the modules at the frontside are all marked red. Also, at this spot the laser system has a free view of space and there is no imbalance because the laser is not very heavy compared to the ISS.
The azimuth angle of the laser is limited to a range of -162° to 162°. Since debris coming from higher orbits are rarer the higher the vertical angle and since they never come from a lower orbit, the vertical angle is limited to a range of 0 to 45°. As for the initial position of a laser, an angle of 0° and 22.5° with respect to the horizontal plane are considered. The value of 22.5° is chosen since this is in the middle of the vertical range of the debris. The laser can freely move in the horizontal and vertical direction from -90° to 90°, which is the largest possible range for the laser. Even though we have limited the range of the debris from 0 to 45°, the vertical range is chosen as large as possible, since debris may still come from an unexpected direction.
The different cases, which are illustrated in Figure 6, are:
Case 1: One laser placed completely horizontally as initial position.
Case 2: One laser inclined at an angle of 22.5° with respect to the horizontal plane as initial position.
Case 3: Two lasers, both placed completely horizontally as initial position.
Case 4: Two lasers, both inclined at an angle of 22.5° with respect to the horizontal plane as initial position.
Case 5: Three lasers, which are all inclined with an angle of 22.5° with respect to the horizontal plane as initial position.
Case 6: Three lasers, which are all inclined at an angle of 22.5° with respect to the horizontal plane, and the outer lasers are also inclined at an angle of 30° outward as initial position.
Case 7: Three lasers, where the laser in the middle is placed horizontally, and the outer lasers are inclined at an angle of 22.5° with respect to the horizontal plane and with an angle of 30° outward as initial position.
Figure 6: Laser(s) positions
Model
Figure 7: 3D Model of the ISS.
A very rough estimation of the plausibility of using lasers for the active protection of the ISS could be made, using some calculations. This could lead to results for a maximum diameter or velocity that can be stopped with a laser. While these can be very advanced and useful, they still fail to describe the full problem. With a model different situations can be simulated easily. This can help to determine whether or not the system works and when it does, different parameters of the ISS can be optimized. To make this model workable, assumptions and simplifications are needed.
To register where debris hits, a 3D model of the ISS is needed. There are 3D models of the ISS available on the NASA website [36], which vary in detail and recency. The model from 2016 was chosen to replicate, since this is the most recent model. Blender was used to make a simplified triangle mesh version of the model, which can be seen in Figure 7. A python script exports this model to a separate file that can be imported into Matlab, where the rest of the simulation is built. To evaluate the need for batteries for the lasers, two different situations for available power are evaluated. In the first situation, the ISS has 158.4 kW available to distribute between the lasers that can shoot at their target. In the second situation, each laser is always capable to operate at its maximum power.
In the model, lasers are perfectly accurate, but have a rotation speed and a given initial orientation. Two different angles (horizontal and vertical) change with the given rotation speed to the angle needed to face the target debris. Each laser shoots a number of pulses per second, depending on the available energy for the laser. Each pulse has an energy of 10 J. The maximum number of pulses per second equals 10^4, for a maximum power of 100 kW per laser. If the laser has less power available than this maximum, the number of pulses per second is adjusted. These adjusted values and the coupling coefficients are used to determine the extra force on the debris due to the laser.
Movement of a debris particle is simulated using Newton’s laws of motion and kinematic equations for a uniform acceleration. A small time interval is used to describe the orbit of a debris particle accurately enough for the purposes used in this project. Additional forces, caused by the laser ablating the debris, can be added to determine the new path when one or more lasers fire at the debris. The movement of the ISS is subtracted from this movement, because this is easier to model. Since the motion of the debris is described in a collection of straight lines, a ray-triangle intersection algorithm can be used to determine where the debris hits the ISS. In this model, the Möller–Trumbore intersection algorithm [37] is used, where the movement of the ISS is also included in the direction of the debris.
The debris is defined by giving it an initial direction and an approximate position where it will hit the ISS. This origin direction is given by a horizontal angle and a vertical angle and represents the movement direction of the debris relative to the earth when it hits the ISS. The debris is placed at the given position and the simulation determines what the path of the debris would be if it would hit at the given end position with the given origin direction and a velocity of 7.7 km/s. It then places it on that path at a distance of 100 kilometers from the ISS, which is the range of the detection and laser here. The simulation with reactions to the lasers can now run. The mass of the debris is calculated using the mass model used by Shuangyan et al. [27], where a debris particle with a diameter of 10 centimeters has a mass of 70 gram and the mass is proportional to d^2.26.
To evaluate the different laser configurations (see Laser(s) placement), the model tests different combinations of debris diameter, origin directions and end positions. Since debris with a movement direction close to that of the ISS will pose no threat and debris rarely comes from very high angles, the origin direction is limited. The horizontal angle of origin equals 0 when the debris and the ISS have the opposite movement directions. An angle from 180° would have the same movement direction. This horizontal direction is limited to a range of -175 to 175°, since anything outside that range does not pose a danger. The vertical angle equals 0 when debris is in a stable orbit around the earth at the same height as the ISS. A higher angle represents the debris coming from a higher orbit. As previously mentioned, this can vary from 0 to 90°. In the simulations, this angle is varied between 0 and 45°, since debris from higher angles is rare. The diameter is varied between 1 and 10 centimeters. The approximate end position of the debris is varied to hit different parts on the ISS.
The code can be found on GitHub: https://github.com/RobdeMooij/0LAUK0_USE_group_9
Figure 8: Visualisation of the model: piece of debris hits the ISS. (Click for animation)
Figure 9: Visualisation of the model: laser does not provide sufficient protection, piece of debris hits the ISS. (Click for animation)
Figure 10: Visualisation of the model: laser succesfully deorbits piece of debris. (Click for animation)
Results
The total percentages of impact positions from the total amount of debris that would collide with the ISS when no laser is used, is shown in the bar graph below. In case debris is not predicted to hit the ISS but comes closer to it than 1 km, it is classified as a ‘near miss’.
It can be derived from the figure that the addition of a laser system can significantly reduce the number of predicted collisions. Upon addition of the first laser, approximately 60% of predicted collisions can be prevented successfully. However, about half of these prevented collisions will still be classified as a near miss. Additional laser placement further improves protection, mostly resulting in increased ‘far misses’ and decreased low-risk collisions. For both the configurations with one and two lasers, the standard and tilted configuration perform (approximately) equally well.
In the tilted configuration, lasers are capable of reaching debris from varying directions more easily. Since the elevation ranges from 0 to 45°, the angle of these lasers is exactly centered to the directions in which threatening debris can approach. However, debris heading for a frontal collision move towards the ISS with a higher velocity with respect to the ISS then debris approaching from an elevation angle larger than 0. Therefore, the laser(s) must be aimed at debris in the orbit of the ISS much quicker to allow for remediation. It appears that these advantages of the considered configurations cancel out one another, resulting in equal performance.
Adding a third laser system in the tilted configuration does not seem to provide any added defense. This makes sense, as the limiting factor for laser ablation is the total available energy for the laser systems. When all lasers are initially aimed in the same direction, they rotate towards incoming debris more or less as a single unit. Since only a total of 158.4 kW is available for all lasers combined, using more than two lasers with the same initial angle will not provide further protection. In fact, employing two laser in the same directions at their maximum power is already quite inefficient. Therefore, the lasers should be aimed at different directions in order to prevent more collisions, as can be observed in the figure. This once again results in an increased number of ‘far misses’ and decreased low-risk collisions (around 10% of all collisions that would occur without using lasers).
Allowing all lasers to operate on their maximum power (without setting a limit imposed by the current total energy available on the ISS) further contributes to the defensive capabilities of the system, although this effect seems to be quite small. Especially for employing three laser systems, one might have expected a significant decrease in collisions. However, it seems that many of the debris particles one or two lasers fail to protect against, can also not be remediated using three lasers. It can also be observed from the figure that the defensive capabilities of laser systems are approximately equal within all configurations for each number of lasers. In this case, the lasers moving ‘as a single unit’ is not necessarily inefficient, as all lasers can function at their maximum power.
Figure 11: Bar graph of the collision percentages from all debris that would collide when no laser is used. In this case, the laser energy is limited by the total energy available on the ISS.
Figure 12: Bar graph of the collision percentages from all debris that would collide when no laser is used. In this case, the laser energy is not limited and the lasers can function at their maximum power.
In the figure below, the impact velocities of debris heading for collision are categorized in ‘low’ (< 10 km/s), ‘medium’ (10-15 km/s) and ‘high’ (>15 km/s) velocity. It can be observed that all high-speed collisions can be prevented using one or more laser systems. Medium-speed collision are decreased more than 50% by adding a single laser system and can be decreased further (to a much smaller degree) by adding more lasers. Therefore, even though the laser systems cannot protect the ISS from all debris, it can at least result in considerably less dangerous collisions.
Figure 13: Impact velocities of orbital debris in percentages of the total debris that would collide with the ISS in case no lasers are used.
In the figure below, the percentages are plotted to the diameter of the debris. It can be derived that the performance of various laser configurations with the same number of laser show equal dependence on debris diameter, which is not strange. Small debris can be remediated easily, even by only a single laser. Addition of lasers proves to mostly be useful for defending against debris of a diameter of at least 4 centimeters. However, large debris continues to pose a large threat. Debris of a 10 centimeters diameter can still only be remediated in 40% of all cases by three lasers. This percentage can be increased to approximately 50% when removing the constraint imposed by the current total laser energy available on the ISS.
Figure 14: Percentages with respect to the diameter of the debris when the power of the laser is limited by the available energy on the ISS.
Figure 15: Percentages with respect to the diameter of the debris when the power of the laser is not limited by the available energy on the ISS.
In the figure below, the ‘blind spots’ of the laser configurations can be observed in more detail. Clearly, addition of one laser already significantly decreases the density of incoming orbital debris. In particular, a significant drop in kinetic velocity of particles heading for (nearly) frontal collision can be observed. This makes sense, as the laser is also initially aimed in this direction. When looking only at an elevation angle of 0°, the tilted configuration performs worse than the default configuration. This becomes especially apparent when using two lasers: most debris headed straight for the ISS can be remediated completely by lasers initially aimed in the orbit of the ISS. This is clearly not the case when these are initially tilted upwards. Once again, due to the energy constraint imposed by the ISS, adding a third laser doesn’t immediately improve the effectivity of the defense system. However, when two lasers are aimed outwards, it can be clearly observed that the system has a much better chance of deorbiting debris coming from larger azimuth angles.
Figure 16: Incoming debris that will collide with the ISS are shown as lines described by their azimuth angle and offset in x- and y-direction, at an elevation angle of 0°. A constant diameter of 5 centimeters and offset in z-direction of 0 m was chosen. Note that the offsets were scaled for visualization purposes. The lines are colored according to the risk categories of the structure the debris will collide with and the length of the lines represents the kinetic velocity of the debris. The ISS is at the origin of the figure.
In contrast, it can be observed that the laser in tilted configuration generally perform somewhat better when considering higher elevation angles. For example, employing two tilted laser results in more effective reduction of frontal collision than two lasers directed in the orbit of the ISS (as can be seen by comparing case 3 and 4).
Figure 17: Incoming debris that will collide with the ISS are shown as lines described by their azimuth angle and offset in x- and y-direction, at an elevation angle of 27°. A constant diameter of 5 centimeters and offset in z-direction of 0 m was chosen. Note that the offsets were scaled for visualization purposes. The lines are colored according to the risk categories of the structure the debris will collide with and the length of the lines represents the kinetic velocity of the debris. The ISS is at the origin of the figure.
Discussion
As mentioned before, the 3D model of the ISS in Matlab is simplified, which means the actual ISS is way more detailed. Thus, it is important to realize that some details were overlooked when determining the placement of the lasers. Furthermore, many assumptions were made when making the model. The described path of the space debris may not be completely realistic, because the exact direction, velocity, size and mass of the debris moving towards the ISS is unpredictable or unknown. Also the spin of the debris has not been taken into account, while debris with spin may have a different collision impact. Moreover, the placement of the laser was easily done within the model in Matlab. However, the placement of a real CAN laser on the ISS is probably a lot of effort in practise. Moreover, there are no rulesets or legal frameworks on the placement of weapons in space and/or on the ISS laid out yet. This means that the assumptions made on the development and ownership of the system are not conclusive.
USE Scenario
In this part a possible USE-scenario will be explained. In this scenario the development, ownership and control is (mostly) by ESA. How this would be done, will be explained in the paragraphs below:
Development
According to the judicial rules set out by the legal framework of the ISS, the agency that develops a module for the ISS will retain ownership of it once it is attached to the space station [1]. Therefore it is possible that the laser system would be developed by only one space agency. However, this does not mean that it should be.
The ISS is one of the if not the biggest multinational cooperative project in the world. Since its convention the manufacturing of the ISS had engineers from different countries working together. Even the once biggest, rivaling great powers (Russia/USSR and USA) are working closely together on the ISS. In the past, the manufacturing of the modules saw the same cooperation. While for example one space agency was leading the development of a module, its parts could be built by engineers from all around the world. Moreover, all the participating space agencies (five) have insight in the operations of the agency in lead of the project. Lastly, the leading agency oversees the manufacturing of the modules and can also contract companies (both national and international) to build them [2].
All of this would be the same for the manufacturing of the laser system. In this example scenario the overseeing agency would be ESA. This would be the logical option since the CAN laser system is a system funded by the EU and currently developed by several European research institutions [3]. To continue this European cooperation the ESA can become the overseeing agency during the further development of this laser system. After doing so the agency can contract the institutions that had worked on the project before. The ESA also has the budget (six billion euros) to develop the project [4]. During this development the other space agencies will be able to have insight on the manufacturing of the project.
Ownership, control and management
As said in the previous paragraph in the ISS’ legal framework the following is said: 'each partner shall retain jurisdiction and control over the elements it registers in or on the Space Station'. Since in this scenario ESA will register the laser module it shall retain the jurisdiction and control over the system [1]. ESA has their own control centers in Europe. One of these could be assigned to control and manage the system. The control center will for example have to communicate to the astronauts when repairs are necessary to the system [5].
System usage and feedback
While the system’s control is in the hands of ESA this does not mean that the other agencies cannot have insight in the system’s actions. Instead ESA can give reports to the agencies about the performance of the system. It is not necessary to send these reports in full detail, but openness about the system’s actions would improve collaboration on the ISS. Like it always has done. It is likely that the activation of the system will also be communicated to the astronauts. However, full reports here are also not necessary since the astronauts are occupied with their research. Instead a situation that is comparable with the feedback given on the evasive maneuvers that are nowadays being performed, would be applicable.
The feedback from the system given to the control center would entail data on the detection of the debris, the effectiveness of the 'shot' and of the path of the debris after the 'shot'. Especially the latter is important since the debris might hit other satellites or pieces of debris on its (now accelerated) way down to earth. Avoiding these 'follow-up' collisions is possible however. The radars on earth have the ability to track debris above ten centimetres, as was mentioned above. If our system would have access to this data it could be able to calculate its 'shots' in a way that the piece of debris on collision course with the ISS would not hit any big pieces of debris on its now accelerated way down to earth.
User scenario
To further elaborate the control, management, system usage and feedback in this paragraph a possible user scenario will be described. In this scenario a piece of debris of unknown origin and of five centimeters in diameter is on course to crash into the ISS. It is coming at high speed head on towards the space station. With an impact speed of ten km/s the damage could be catastrophic after impact.
The proposed system however detects the object one hundred kilometers away from the space station. The system now has a maximum of ten seconds to ablate the object. During this process the system uses and depletes its power from its allocated batteries. The speed of the debris is now decreased in such a way that it de-orbits and will burn op in Earth’s atmosphere soon.
In this whole scenario the astronauts and control center do not notice what is happening and thus do also not have to act as to help the system ablate the piece of debris. Instead the system operates fully autonomously. After the successful ablation of the debris the system creates a log file and sends it to the ESA control center. Mission control then analyzes the file and sees if the system operated and is still operating as it should be. Mission control will not send the log file to the astronauts since they have no benefit from knowing all the details of the system’s actions. However mission control will notify the astronauts of the successful ablation as to reaffirm their safety in the space station. The file or a report of the file however will be send to the other ISS Partners as to improve co-operation.
After the system has sent the log file the batteries of the system also start recharging. Through the gathered energy from the solar panels the batteries will recharge. However, if it so happens that another piece of debris is detected and should be destroyed the system can still use the available energy allocated for non-vital systems such as energy for devices for food preparation, physical exercise etcetera. There will still be energy available for life-support and the laboratories however. So, if this happens astronauts will for example notice lights going off and their treadmill to stop working. The chance of two pieces of debris crashing into the ISS in a timespan of hours is very, very small however. The chance of collision between the ISS and a piece of space debris is ‘only’ seven percent per year according to an estimate in 1998 [6]. Since this chance is so small the choice was made to only allocate batteries to the system for one ablation.
References
1. http://m.esa.int/Our_Activities/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/International_Space_Station/International_Space_Station_legal_framework
2. https://www.britannica.com/topic/International-Space-Station
3. https://cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/102392/reporting/en
4. https://www.esa.int/spaceinimages/Images/2019/01/ESA_Budget_2019
5. https://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/International_Space_Station/Control_centres
6. https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-probability-of-a-major-disaster-at-the-International-Space-Station-due-to-the-proliferation-of-space-junk-in-the-Low-Earth-orbit
Conclusion
The International Space Station (ISS) faces a severe problem, which is space debris in an orbit around Earth. This debris has the potential to damage the ISS. This problem is tackled in this research, where we have focused on space debris with a diameter between 1 and 10 centimeters. This decision was made since this type of debris currently poses the biggest threat to the ISS.
The proposed solution which is discussed will affect the astronauts in the space station, as well as the ground-based ISS control centers. Different techniques for active removal of debris are compared and the laser system has become the most optimal choice. These laser systems are already used for active removal of space debris, but not for direct protection of the ISS. They are capable of ablating small debris in the low Earth Orbit and have a great range. We have chosen for the Coherent Amplification Network (CAN) laser, which is a favorable choice for remediation of debris of the chosen size range. A laser system has many advantages: it is able to remediate debris with high relative velocities (of more than 10 km/s), it has a high electrical efficiency and also has a fast response-time.
We wanted to determine the most optimal solution in terms of feasibility and effectiveness of the laser system. This is tested with a model made within Matlab, where a simplified representation of the ISS and incoming debris were modelled. The different laser(s) placement(s) are based on the critical parts of the ISS and the fact that more dangerous debris impacts will occur at the front of the ISS because of their high relative velocity. This placement of various lasers were examined within the model. Various results can be obtained from the model, regarding the total percentages of impact positions from total amount of debris with the ISS against the different laser cases and diameter. Also, the effect of debris of different velocities is examined for all the laser cases. These results are likewise shown for the case if there is unlimited energy available to power the laser systems.
From the results can be concluded that the addition of two laser systems on the front-side of the ISS is the most effective option. Namely, the debris which reaches high risk parts of the ISS is reduced significantly and the debris that misses the ISS is increased a lot, compared to a single laser. The standard and the tilted configuration perform (approximately) equally well. A third laser hardly adds extra defense and therefore this is not necessary. However, it is possible that the technology of the laser is improved in the future and that the costs are reduced. In this case, it may be a viable option to implement more than two lasers, in order to add extra defense to the ISS. Although the focus is mostly on the laser ablation system, it is important to realize that a proper detection system is required to locate the space debris, since only then the debris can be disarmed effectively. Thus, the detection method is one of the aspects which must be addressed in further research.
Milestones and Deliverables
Milestones
Week
Milestone
2 Determined subject; defined plan
3 Finish literature search about state of the art; determine problem statement
4 Specify method and USE aspects
5 Start model in Matlab
6 Run simulations with the model in Matlab
7 Results model, implement model in USE
8 Discussion, conclusion
9 Presentation, finish wiki
10 Deliver wiki
Deliverables:
Wiki page
Presentation
Model/prototype
Planning
Week
Task
Responsible member(s)
2
Choosing subject
State-of-the-art literature study
Make rough planning
All
All
All
3
Literature study about space debris and ISS in general
Define problem statement
Literature study: debris detection and tracking methods
Literature study: debris capture methods
Literature study: threat to the ISS
All
Joris
Rob
Sara
Ilja
4
Specify method
Specify stakeholders and requirements
Study the previous wiki’s about space debris
Further definition USE-aspects
Laser specifications
ISS orientation and laser placement
Space debris orbit
Update problem statement
ISS resources
Ilja, Rob, Sara
Joris
All
Thomas
Ilja
Sara
Rob
Ilja
Joris
5
Specify choice of active defense method
Find a way to represent the ISS in Matlab
Find a way to represent lasers in Matlab
Mathematically describe movement of the debris
Find a way to register where debris hits in Matlab
Make a simplified 3D model of the ISS and import to Matlab
Explain idea of the simulation in wiki
USE judicial aspects
Ilja
Rob
Ilja
Sara
Rob
Rob
Rob
Thomas
6
Make different models for different orientations of the ISS
Describe debris path in lines
Incorporate debris in Matlab
Write interactions between model, debris and lasers
USE social aspects
Integrate judicial aspects (in placement a.o.t.)
USE financial aspects: look at cost of damage ISS
Placing for the laser: where can the laser not be placed
Define critical parts ISS
Determine amount and placement of lasers
Laser ablation technique research + write wiki
Rob
Rob/Ilja
Rob
Ilja
Thomas
Thomas
Joris
Joris
Joris
Sara
Sara
7
Describe USE-scenario (from e.g. NASA and astronauts)
Describe ablation as force on debris
Placement of lasers when looking at critical parts
Finalize “critical parts” part + add references
Cost of implementation
Damage costs
Make different models for different orientations of the ISS
Run simulations for different situations
Start with the discussion
Detection limitations analysis
Thomas
Rob
Sara
Joris
Joris
Ilja
Rob/Joris
Rob
Sara
Ilja
8
Assess feasibility with the USE aspects
Assess feasibility with the simulation
Develop a way to visualize data from the simulation
Finish discussion + conclusion + references
Prepare draft presentation (Thursday)
Finalize presentation (Sunday)
Thomas
Rob
Ilja
Sara
Joris
Joris/Thomas
9
Presentation (June 17th)
Final wiki layout
References
Joris/Thomas
Rob/Sara
All
10
Finish wiki (June 24th)
All
References
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State of the art references
Dubanchet, V., Saussié, D., Alazard, D., Bérard, C., & Peuvédic, C. Le. (2015). Modeling and control of a space robot for active debris removal. CEAS Space Journal, 7(2), 203–218. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12567-015-0082-4
This paper focusses on the technical aspects of using a robotic arm on a ‘chaser’ satellite to capture large debris. This approach is considered to be the most realistic to actually be employed in the upcoming years. In the introduction, several efforts in achieving the modeling and control of such a system (in space) are outlined. In the second section, the main issues in achieving this are described. In the third and fourth section, an algorithm used to model and simulate the dynamics of this satellite and the method of controlling it are described. The resulting system is then simulated using Matlab (the code is provided in the paper).
Flegel, S., Krisko, P., Gelhaus, J., Wiedemann, C., Möckel, M., Vörsmann, P., … Matney, M. (2010). Modeling the Space Debris Environment with MASTER2009 and ORDEM2010. Proceedings of the 38th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, (January).
This paper describes and compares two software tools (MASTER-2009 and ORDEM2010 developed by ESA and NASA respectively) used to describe debris orbiting the earth. The main goal of these tools is to estimate the object flux onto a specified target object and is therefore useful in achieving safe space travel. In MASTER, debris is simulated based on lists of known historical events responsible for scattering debris in earth’s orbit. Results are also validated using historical telescope/radar data. ORDEM is designed to reliably estimate orbital debris flux on spacecraft using telescope or radar fields-of-view. Therefore, both programs make heavy use of empirical data for their predictions. Results of the program deviate particularly in debris with a size of 1 millimeter to 1 centimeter. These bits of debris are particularly difficult to model, as the amount of measurement data is very small. Reasons for the deviation of the results for these small debris are described in the paper.
Klinkrad, H. (2006). Space debris : models and risk analysis. Springer.
This book extensively covers space debris in general and describes the technical aspects of this debris in detail. In chapters 2 to 6, it is outlined how the space debris environment can be characterized and modelled using measurement data. Furthermore, it is explained how the future of space debris orbiting earth can be predicted and how this could be influenced by mitigation measures. Chapters 7 to 9 describe aspects of risk assessment and prevention within on-orbit shielding, collision avoidance and re-entry risk management. Chapter 10 gives an overview of the risks associated with natural meteoroids and meteorites. Lastly, chapter 11 overviews the importance of space debris research and international policy and standardization issues.
Understanding the causes and controlling its sources is essential to allow for safe space flight in the future. This can only be achieved through international cooperation. This has been done through international information exchange and international cooperation at a technical level. Furthermore, steps have already been taken in establishing space debris mitigation standards, guidelines, codes of conduct and policies by several space agencies, governmental bodies and international space operators.
Yazdkhasti, S., & Sasiadek, J. Z. (2017). Space Robot Relative Navigation for Debris Removal. IFAC-PapersOnLine, 50(1), 7929–7934. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2017.08.767
In order for a ‘chaser’ (spacecraft capable of removing space debris) to properly navigate towards its target, it must be able to estimate the pose and motion of the target. In the introduction, several works addressing this problem are outlined. This paper presents a method to estimate the relative position, linear and angular velocity and the attitude of space debris using vision measurements (using stereo cameras). In order to estimate the relative states between spacecraft, the Multiplicative Extended Kalman Filter and Unscented Kalman Filter were applied. The methodology is described by first outlining the coordinate systems used. Afterwards, the estimation algorithm is described (in which a set of feature points tracked by a stereo camera are key). Then, the described algorithms are validated using a simulation experiment. This paper could be very interesting for our model. Perhaps we could translate the presented algorithm into a script and further build on it.
Colmenarejo, P., Avilés, M., & di Sotto, E. (2015). Active debris removal GNC challenges over design and required ground validation. CEAS Space Journal, 7(2), 187–201. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12567-015-0088-y
In this paper, proposed techniques for active debris removal (ADR) are categorized as follows:
- Contactless techniques (e.g. an ion beam), which can mostly build on existing techniques as opposed to using new ones
- Techniques requiring rigid contact (e.g. through a robotic arm), in which de-orbiting can be achieved by directly transmitting a force/torque to the debris
- Techniques requiring non-rigid contact (e.g. using flexible tentacles), which can entail intricate dynamics
A list of the proposed techniques can be retrieved from table 1 in the paper. As of yet, the most technologically advanced methods are the use of a robotic arm and capture through a tethered net.
Additionally, the main operational phases of active debris removal are outlined:
1. Ground controlled phase: In this phase, the “chaser” is brought closer to the target, usually not autonomously.
2. Fine orbit synchronization phase: The chaser moves to the (approximate) orbit of the target, which can be autonomous or partially using ground support
3. Short range phase: the final (passive) approach toward the target. Challenges here (which we could also address) are:
- Necessity to determine debris angular velocity and shape using optical observation, which most likely requires image processing techniques
- Necessity to synchronize the chaser with the angular motion of the debris
- In case of contact, necessity to de-tumble/control the resulting composite satellite
4. Terminal approach/capture
5. De-orbiting
Clearly, the fourth and fifth phase are very specific to the technique chosen for debris removal. Furthermore, the following aspects are discussed in the paper in detail:
1. Terminal approach using visual-based navigation
2. Ground validation of guidance, navigation and control systems based on hardware-in-the-loop test facilities
Chen, S. (2011). The Space Debris Problem. Asian Perspective, 35(4), 537–558. https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2011.0023
Near-Earth orbits are becoming congested as a result of an increase in the number of objects in space—operational satellites as well as orbital space debris. The risk of collisions between satellites and space debris is also growing. Suggested concepts for active removal of space debris: small-debris collection, ground-based lasers, trash tenders, dual-use orbit transfer vehicles, space-based lasers, and space tethers. There are two separate areas of concentration: small-debris elimination and individual large-object collection.
Nishida, S.-I., Kawamoto, S., Okawa, Y., Terui, F., & Kitamura, S. (2009). Space debris removal system using a small satellite. Acta Astronautica, 65(1–2), 95–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2009.01.041
Electro-dynamic tether (EDT) technology, a possible high efficiency orbital transfer system, could provide a possible means for lowering the orbits of objects without the need for propellant.
Ruggiero, A., Pergola, P., & Andrenucci, M. (2015). Small Electric Propulsion Platform for Active Space Debris Removal. IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science, 43(12), 4200–4209. https://doi.org/10.1109/TPS.2015.2491649
A deorbiting platform is in charge of approaching a target debris, bringing it to a lower altitude orbit and, in the case of a multiple target mission, releasing it and chasing a second one. Electric propulsion plays a key role in reducing the propellant mass consumption required for each maneuver and thus increasing the mass available to deorbit a relevant number of debris per mission.
Huang, P., Zhang, F., Meng, Z., & Liu, Z. (2016). Adaptive control for space debris removal with uncertain kinematics, dynamics and states. Acta Astronautica, 128, 416–430. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.07.043
Tethered Space Robots are a promising solution for the space debris problem. Kinematics and dynamics parameters of the debris are unknown and parts of the states are unmeasurable according to the specifics of tether, which is a tough problem for the target retrieval/de-orbiting. Models and simulations can be used to get proposed parameters and their expected performances.
Lampariello, R. (2013). On Grasping a Tumbling Debris Object with a Free-Flying Robot. IFAC Proceedings Volumes, 46(19), 161–166. https://doi.org/10.3182/20130902-5-DE-2040.00118
The grasping and stabilization of a tumbling, non-cooperative target satellite by means of a free-flying robot is a challenging control problem. A novel method for computing robot trajectories for grasping a tumbling target is presented. The problem is solved as a motion planning problem with nonlinear optimization. The resulting solution includes a first maneuver of the Servicer satellite which carries the robot arm, taking account of typical satellite control inputs. An analysis of the characteristics of the motion of a grasping point on a tumbling body is used to motivate this grasping method, which is argued to be useful for grasping targets of larger size.
Klima, R., Bloemenbergen, D. (2016) Space debris removal: a game theoretical analysis https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4336/7/3/20
Space debris are a threat to operational spacecraft. Debris removal mission have been investigated by several space agencies to protect the satellites in the orbital environments. This costs a lot of money, but it has positive effect for all the satellites in the same orbital. A drawback is the agencies can all financially contribute to the debris removal or wait for others to do it. The risk of the latter is that the debris will be catastrophic. A game-theoretical analysis is presented where a realistic model of the orbit environment including all space objects are implemented. The experiments confirmed the predicted exponential growth of space debris near the Earth orbits. Active object removal are necessary.
Liou, J.-C., Johnson, N. L. (2006). Risks in space from orbiting debris https://science.sciencemag.org/content/311/5759/340?casa_token=eKETqH8PDB4AAAAA:F0c9mUOMMHFELTaZbWngoc5wcDTKOkO0Ke0enr3v5kST6L-BQAsv6JItvTKWMiUkH2xrm2XAz7wm2Q
Since the launch of Sputnik I, an orbital debris environment has been created which has a risk on the space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions. More than 9000 orbiting objects with a total mass larger than 5 million kg are tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. Three collision have been occurred. There is a potential increase in Earth satellite population which results from the collisions of the space objects.
The current debris environment in the Low earth orbit (LEO) region is unstable and the collisions will become dominant in the future even without new launches. The collisions will happen between 900- and 1000 km over the next 200 years, which results in debris increase. Because undoubtedly new spacecraft will be launched in the future, the situation is even worse.
Marco M. Castronuovo (2011)., Active space debris removal —A preliminary mission analysis and design, Pages 848-859, ISSN 0094-5765, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2011.04.017 .
(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576511001287 )
The removal of 5 to 10 objects per year from the LEO can prevent the debris collisions from cascading. There are three orbital regions near the Earth where the collision occur and the sun-synchronous condition is the one we should target for debris removal. For this removal, a space mission has been designed with the goal to remove 5 rockets per year from this orbital environment. This space mission includes the launch of a satellite which contains de-orbiting devices. This satellite chooses an objects and grabs it with a robotic arm. A second arm puts a de-orbiting device to the object. Then the next target can be done. An active debris removal mission can de-orbit 35 large objects in 7 years and the mass budget is compatible.
Shin-Ichiro Nishida, Satomi Kawamoto, (2011). Strategy for capturing of a tumbling space debris,Pages 113-120,ISSN 0094-5765,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2010.06.045 . (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576510002365 )
The capture of space debris objects are not favorable, because tracking errors lead to loading and momentum transfer occur during the capturing. Because the exact mass and inertial characteristics of the target are unknown due to unavailability or damage, it is harder to use the capture arm to capture the object. A “joint virtual depth control”algorithm for a force controlled robot arm control is used which tries to stop the rotation of the target with a brush type contactor. As a result, a new active space debris removal system is becoming more achievable.
Vladimir Aslanov, Vadim Yudintsev, (2013). Dynamics of large space debris removal using tethered space tug, Pages 149-156, ISSN 0094-5765,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2013.05.020 . (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576513001811 )
Tethered systems are promising technology to reduce the space debris. This is possible in different ways: through momentum transfer or electrodynamic effects. Another way is using a tethered space tug which is attached to the space debris. Large space debris can cause a loss of control of the tethered space tug, so the problem of the removal of this large space debris is studied. The transportation system consists of a space debris and a space tug which are connected by the tether. The properties of this system on the motion of the system are studied, which includes the moments of inertia, the length and properties of tether, thruster force and initial condition of motion. The transportation process is possible when the space tug force is in the same direction as the tether and the tether is tensioned. There is minimal height of safe transportation below which the space tug can come into collision with the space debris.
Nishida, S., & Yoshikawa, T. (2007). Capture and motion braking of space debris by a space robot. 2007 International Conference on Control, Automation and Systems. doi:10.1109/iccas.2007.4406990
(https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/4406990)
Space debris objects are generally tumbling in orbit, and so capturing and braking them involves complicated dynamical interactions between the object, the so-called "servicer" spacecraft, and its robot arm, with the possibility of strong loading occurring during the procedure. In this paper, a space debris capture strategy is described which proposes the application of joint virtual depth control to the capture robot arm. We present the results of simulations and experiments that confirm the feasibility of this technique.
Nguyen-Huynh, T. C., & Sharf, I. (2013). Adaptive Reactionless Motion and Parameter Identification in Postcapture of Space Debris. Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, 36(2), 404-414. doi:10.2514/1.57856
(https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/10.2514/1.57856)
This paper presents a new control scheme for the problem of a space manipulator after capturing an unknown target, such as space debris. The changes in the dynamics parameters of the system, as a result of capturing an unknown target, must be accommodated because they may lead to poor performance of the trajectory control and attitude stabilization system. To address this issue in the postcapture scenario, the adaptive reactionless control algorithm to produce the arm motions with minimum disturbance to the base is proposed in this study. In addition, the online momentum-based estimation method is developed for inertia-parameter identification after the space manipulator grasps an unknown tumbling target with unknown angular momentum. This control scheme is intended for use in the transition phase from the instant of capture until the unknown parameters are identified and/or the available stabilization methods can be applied properly. To verify the validity and feasibility of the proposed concept, MSC.Adams simulation platform is employed to implement a planar base–manipulator–target model and the three-dimensional model of the Engineering Test Satellite VII system. The numerical results show that the space manipulator is able to perform reactionless motion while the inertial parameters converge to their real values.
Kessler, D. J., & Cour-Palais, B. G. (1980). Collision Frequency of Artificial Satellites: Creation of a Debris Belt. Space Systems and Their Interactions with Earth's Space Environment, 707-736. doi:10.2514/5.9781600865459.0707.0736
(https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/JA083iA06p02637)
As the number of artificial satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites also increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of further collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This process parallels certain theories concerning the growth of the asteroid belt. The debris flux in such an earth‐orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft designs. A mathematical model was used to predict the rate at which such a belt might form. Under certain conditions the belt could begin to form within this century and could be a significant problem during the next century. The possibility that numerous unobserved fragments already exist from spacecraft explosions would decrease this time interval. However, early implementation of specialized launch constraints and operational procedures could significantly delay the formation of the belt.
Bennet, F., Conan, R., D’Orgeville, C., Murray, M., Paulin, N., Price, I., Rigaut, F., Ritchie, I., Smith, C., and Uhlendorf, K., “Adaptive optics for laser space debris removal”, in [SPIE Astronomical Telescopes+ Instrumentation], 844744–844744, International Society for Optics and Photonics (2012).
(https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258719228_Adaptive_Optics_For_Laser_Space_Debris_Removal)
Space debris in low Earth orbit below 1500km is becoming an increasing threat to satellites and spacecrafts. Radar and laser tracking are currently used to monitor the orbits of thousands of space debris and active satellites are able to use this information to manoeuvre out of the way of a predicted collision. However, many satellites are not able to manoeuvre and debris-on debris collisions are becoming a signicant contributor to the growing space debris population. The removal of the space debris from orbit is the preferred and more denitive solution. Space debris removal may be achieved through laser ablation, whereby a high power laser corrected with an adaptive optics system could, in theory, allow ablation of the debris surface and so impart a remote thrust on the targeted object. The goal of this is to avoid collisions between space debris to prevent an exponential increase in the number of space debris objects. We are developing an experiment to demonstrate the feasibility of laser ablation for space debris removal. This laser ablation demonstrator utilises a pulsed sodium laser to probe the atmosphere ahead of the space debris and the sun re ection of the space debris is used to provide atmospheric tip{tilt information. A deformable mirror is then shaped to correct an infrared laser beam on the uplink path to the debris. We present here the design and the expected performance of the system.
Bradley, A. M., & Wein, L. M. (2009). Space debris: Assessing risk and responsibility. Advances in Space Research, 43(9), 1372-1390. doi:10.1016/j.asr.2009.02.006
(https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222563620_Space_debris_Assessing_risk_and_responsibility)
We model the orbital debris environment by a set of differential equations with parameter values that capture many of the complexities of existing three-dimensional simulation models. We compute the probability that a spacecraft gets destroyed in a collision during its operational lifetime, and then define the sustainable risk level as the maximum of this probability over all future time. Focusing on the 900- to 1000-km altitude region, which is the most congested portion of low Earth orbit, we find that – despite the initial rise in the level of fragments – the sustainable risk remains below 10-3 if there is high (>98%) compliance to the existing 25-year postmission deorbiting guideline. We quantify the damage (via the number of future destroyed operational spacecraft) generated by past and future space activities. We estimate that the 2007 FengYun 1C antisatellite weapon test represents ≈1% of the legacy damage due to space objects having a characteristic size of ⩾10 cm, and causes the same damage as failing to deorbit 2.6 spacecraft after their operational life. Although the political and economic issues are daunting, these damage estimates can be used to help determine one-time legacy fees and fees on future activities (including deorbit noncompliance), which can deter future debris generation, compensate operational spacecraft that are destroyed in future collisions, and partially fund research and development into space debris mitigation technologies. Our results need to be confirmed with a high-fidelity three-dimensional model before they can provide the basis for any major decisions made by the space community.
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(IDG) -- Businesses in the UK, including U.S. firms with branch offices there, may soon face limits on their ability to monitor employee Web surfing and e-mail activity under a new privacy code due to be released by a government body in the next two months.
The UK privacy protections also illustrate the sharp difference in privacy approaches that exist between the U.S. and European nations, many of which have stringent privacy rules.
The code, which sets out workplace privacy rights, will call for employers to spell out their monitoring policies to employees and conduct monitoring that is "proportionate" to the risk posed by the employee activity.
Here are two examples of how the standard could be applied:
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• If employees write 10 e-mails a day on average, but one employee is writing 200 e-mails, that would give an employer grounds to look at the content of those e-mails, David Clancy, a strategic policy officer at the Information Commission in London.
• Employers with sensitive information to protect, such as the secret ingredients of a soft drink, could reserve the right in their monitoring policy to check all communications -- such a policy would be proportionate to the risk, said Clancy. "The risk is that the business would collapse if the recipe was loose," he said.
The code would also call on companies to give consideration to an employee's privacy rights, said Clancy, because there "is a blurring between work and personal communications, especially with the growth of people working away from the office and the use of mobile communications." The mixed nature of messages can cause problems when a message to the human resource department, while work-related, is "quite often highly personal and private," he said.
But a major UK industry group, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, called the code "unrealistic and inappropriate" and said it will halt virtually any employee monitoring and create new risks for businesses.
The code "does not allow any covert monitoring" of such activity as telephone calls and Internet use "unless criminal activity has been identified and the police are involved," said Diane Sinclair, the lead advisor on public policy at the London-based personnel management group.
The code is the Information Commission's interpretation of the Data Protection Act. The code isn't a law, but if a company doesn't follow the code, it risks a legal challenge from an employee.
Companies operating in the U.S. are allowed to monitor workplace computer activity without restriction, said Christopher Wolf, an Internet law expert at Proskauer Rose LLP in Washington. In short, U.S. law, which is backed by court rulings, makes clear that "he who owns the computers gets to see what is going on with their computers," he said.
But U.S. businesses in England will have comply with the privacy code. Although companies with servers located in the U.S. might have the capability of remotely monitoring a workstation in England -- and may technically be able to get away with it -- they could face legal risk if they do so, said Wolf.
There have been high-profile cases in the UK of employees who have been dismissed for surfing the Internet, said Carolyn Jones, who heads the Institute of Employment Rights in London. She argued, however, that the boundary between family and the workplace is no longer what it was and that there should be some flexibility.
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We're not sure if this qualifies as a "death grip," but the reception glitch was a "fail" before the iPhone 4's success.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
iPhone 4's reception problem, Microsoft's Kin phone were among year's top tech flops
Privacy was a concern, with Facebook, Google and Gawker failing in turn
3-D TV was hyped but never lived up to its promise in 2010
(CNN) -- In 2010, we saw social networking skyrocket in popularity. We embraced a new category of tablet computer. And we rushed to new gaming systems that let us play video games without a controller.
But in the technology world, not all valleys are made of silicon. While the highs were high for the tech winners this year, the low points were equally low.
Even tech titans such as Apple and Google had some rough moments in 2010. And some ambitious ideas that must have made sense behind closed doors just didn't translate well to the real world.
So here are our top "tech fails" of the year: the missteps, misdeeds and mistakes that remind us that no one -- not even Steve Jobs -- is perfect. What did we miss? Let us know in the comments below.
1. iPhone 4 'Antennagate'
Apple drama -- nothing brings out the diehard fans and Cupertino haters quite like this one.
The newest iteration of the wildly popular smartphone was released in June.
By all standards, it's been a huge success. All standards except one.
Some people couldn't actually use it for phone calls.
Apple iPhone fix: Duct tape
Facebook privacy claims: True or false?
Nexus One vs. iPhone
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OK, maybe that's an overstatement. But the Grip of Death (caused when users covered part of the antenna in a band around the phone's edge) was real -- and a big glitch in the device's rollout.
First Apple said the problem didn't exist. Then they said it was a software issue. Then they kind-of admitted it existed and gave away free cases to help. Then, they said it doesn't really exist anymore and stopped giving away the bumpers.
Months later, the problem is all but forgotten and the phones show no sign of dipping in popularity. So "fail," in this case, is a pretty relative term.
2. 3-D TV
After being all the buzz at the trend-making Consumer Electronics Show in January, 3-D television didn't do much of anything this year.
Three-dimension movies may have taken over your neighborhood multiplex. But how many people do you know who will pay $4,000 or more for a TV that has a limited amount of special content and makes you wear special glasses in the comfort of your own home?
That will likely change as prices fall and the technology gets better. But so far, in a market full of folks who just recently shelled out four figures for high-definition TVs, 3-D television has fallen flat.
3. Microsoft Kin
We almost don't have the heart to beat up on the Kins anymore.
Having already served up the short-lived, tween-centric phones in our Thanksgiving all-time tech turkey list, we'll just remind you that the Kin One and Kin Two (Born: April 2010. Died: July 2010) aimed to be the fun, social smartphone for kids but ended up as a sort-of iPhone Lite, with a pricier data plan than their limited functions could justify.
Microsoft seemed happy to move on to the Windows Phone 7 system, so we will, too.
R.I.P. Kin. We hardly knew ye.
4. Nexus One
Speaking of phones that failed ...
Google's Android phone operating system came into its own in 2010, actually outselling phones running Apple's system by the end of the year.
But Google's effort at making their own phone to run it, the Nexus One, fizzled fast.
And here's the thing -- just about everyone who tried out the Nexus One liked it. It had features to rival the iPhone's, and reviewers were kind.
But Google might have gone wrong by originally selling the phone only online. Apparently, folks like to get their hands on their gadgets before paying for them.
5. Facebook privacy
Nothing on the internet elicits as much squawking as a change to Facebook.
Any change will do, really.
But this spring, some of the roughly half-billion users on the site got really miffed when a handful of privacy bugs, among other things, made private chat conversations briefly visible to Facebook friends.
And on April 21, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a new Facebook feature called the "Open Graph," which essentially brings Facebook-like functionality to a number of websites.
A few folks actually left on a protester-created "Quit Facebook Day." Most didn't, but the sustained anger led Facebook to eventually simplify its privacy controls and roll out some new ones.
6. Google Buzz
Buzz was supposed to be Google's entry into the world of social networking in much the same way that Google Wave, which Google killed in August, was supposed to revolutionize real-time communication.
But it didn't help that, right out of the gate, Buzz's default settings amounted to a privacy breach. Basically, if users didn't tweak things at set-up, the people they e-mailed and chatted with the most through Gmail automatically became their followers.
So, theoretically, someone only needed to take a quick look at your profile to see who you interacted with the most in forums that most people assume are private.
Google quickly patched the problem. But the tool never really caught on. In Google Land, that might be OK, though -- the latest speculation is that Buzz might have been just the first step toward a networking site called "Google Me."
7. Gawker media sites hacked
Two fails here, really.
Fail No. 1: Gawker Media sites were breached in early December, with hackers saying they got access to the user names and passwords for about 1.3 million users of sites such as Gizmodo, Jezebel, Lifehacker and Kotaku.
Fail No. 2: A published list of the most-popular passwords hacked showed that "123456," "password," "12345" and "qwerty" were at or near the top of the list.
Sorry, folks. If those are your passwords, it's awfully tough to feel sorry for you getting hacked.
8. Content farms
Creating click-bait junk on the internet didn't start in 2010. But it certainly took off in a big way.
Demand Media, Aol's Seed and Associated Content, bought this year by Yahoo!, operate on a similar "content farm" model: They choose topics people are searching for on the internet, pay a "journalist" a tiny amount to write something -- anything -- about it, then slap it on the Web so people will click on it.
According to a Wired article, industry "leader" Demand Media already was cranking out 4,000 videos a day in late 2009. And they were on pace to publish 1 million items a month by this summer.
The magazine interviewed a videographer who has done 40,000 videos for Demand. Asked about his favorite, he said he couldn't really remember any of them.
Writing to what readers are interested in is one thing. At CNN, we monitor Twitter, Google Trends and other digital listening posts to make sure we're covering what people want to know about in the tech world.
But cranking out by-the-numbers copy, with profit as the only motive, just junks up the Web for everyone. It cynically betrays the promise of what the internet could, and should, be.
And maybe it won't work. The Wall Street Journal has said Demand has never made a profit. And just this week, there were reports that Demand is delaying a public stock offering because of concerns about its accounting practices.
9. Digg relaunch
It's impressive that content-sharing sites such as Digg have clung to some degree of relevancy in an era when most people share their favorite digital content on Facebook and Twitter.
But, to be sure, they've struggled. And a revolt by some vocal members of Digg this summer didn't help. The site got a major overhaul to make it easier for users to find content.
But the changes were buggy at first, and some old-school features such as the "Bury" button (which was eventually returned) had regulars claiming they were bolting for Digg competitor Reddit.
The fallout was still clearing by year's end, and the reasoning behind Digg's changes -- to help curate content in a more manageable way -- made sense. But the change brought some headaches that Digg's top brass no doubt would have liked to avoid.
10. iTunes Ping
There's a whole social network set up in Apple's iTunes store now.
Didn't know that? Well, there you go.
Not all musical artists are on there. And it doesn't integrate with Facebook. (Although Ping and Twitter just linked up). And, a lot of the time, it simply pushes you to buy music.
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China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country.
Beer and breweries in China. List of major Chinese beers. The vast majority of China's breweries serve only their local vicinity: Hangzhou Qiandaohu Beer Co., Ltd., Harbin Beer, Reeb, Snow beer, Tsingtao Beer, Yanjing Beer, Zhujiang Beer, China Pabst Blue Ribbon, Wusu Beer, Kingway Beer.
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Below is an article that asks some very good questions that are most likely being addressed by the state insurance commissioners. There are many things to consider when offering plans that were to be cancelled and not factored into the new marketplace (both private and state/federal market).
Obama’s meeting with insurance regulators is going to be a bit awkward
From The Washington Post
By Sarah Kliff
Allowing late renewals: Hawaii, Ohio, N.C., Fla., Ky., Tex.
Not allowing late renewals: Mass., Md., Minn., R.I., Vt., Wash.
Still deciding: Calif., Colo., D.C., Ind., Miss., Ore., S.D.
The White House invited a handful of insurance commissioners to talk with the president Wednesday about his proposal to reverse health insurance cancellation notices. This is not the first time that President Obama has invited insurance regulators to Washington; the group’s work has been key to other health law provisions, such as a rule that all insurers must spend at least 80 percent of subscriber premiums on medical bills.
Still, Wednesday’s meeting could prove a bit more tense than the other summits. A half-dozen insurance commissioners have already announced that they do not plan to implement the president’s proposal. Here are a few questions that we’d expect to come up at the meeting.
So…where is everybody?
Some of the insurance commissioners invited to the White House have declined, saying that they had “serious reservations” about the meeting.
“While we greatly appreciate the opportunity to meet with President Obama, briefing the membership and working to build consensus on a meeting of this importance needs to occur prior to sitting down with him,” one letter signed by six insurance commissioners, said.
Insurance regulators have expressed frustration at not getting much of a heads-up on a policy change they are now supposed to implement. “It only dropped in our laps yesterday morning,” National Association of Insurance Commissioners president Jim Donelon told me in an interview Friday.
Are the risk pools going to get messed up?
One big concern of insurance regulators is that allowing consumers to extend these insurance plans could mess up the configuration of the group of people buying coverage through the new exchange. The people in the pre-Obamacare plans are kept in a separate “risk pool,” with their own health care costs used to calculate premiums for that specific group of people.
People who already have individual market coverage tend to be a bit healthier than those who will likely gain coverage under Obamacare. So the worry is, if you segregate the non-Obamacare people into a separate risk pool, premiums will go up in 2015.
A more immediate concern though, is what happens in 2014. Insurers set their prices for the exchanges months and months ago, expecting that the people with cancellation notices would hop into the new risk pool. If they don’t, that could mean that the premiums charged in the marketplace would be insufficient to cover subscriber costs.
What about your risk corridors?
The risk corridors are not front page news but they’re also a key part of the health care law, a program that reimburses insurers’ for some of the costs of super-expensive patients. Here’s how they work: If insurers’ actual costs — the claims they pay out — are more than 3 percent higher than “target” costs, the government will foot 50 percent of the difference. Get 8 percent higher, and the government chips in 80 percent.
The federal government has hinted that it might change change the risk corridor program to better accommodate insurers that wind up with even sicker subscribers than they had expected. But in a meeting with insurance executives last week, Politico reported, the president made clear there would be a limit to those changes.
Why do this by executive order?
This is an issue that Donelon, the NAIC president, raised in my interview with him Friday. He says that a lot of states aren’t quite sure whether they can treat an executive order with the force of law.
“The various state general counsels are looking at that,” he says. “I have seen one state attorney general opine that the state regulator [there] does not have the authority to act based upon an executive order from the president or anyone else. That state regulator is limited to legislative action.”
There were a few proposals to reverse cancellation notices floating around Capitol Hill, but all of them tended to go a good deal further in allowing plans that don’t comply with Obamacare to stick around. One would allow new people to enroll in these products; another would give family members the option to join up. That made these plans, from the White House’s view, less preferable than the president’s own fix. But working by executive order could be difficult for states.
Could we do this again some time?
Adam Hamm is North Dakota’s insurance commissioner and one of the six who turned down the White House invitation. In a separate statement, Hamm said that much of the reason for declining to attend has to do with timing.
“It’s an honor to have been invited to meet with the President and I would enjoy the opportunity to do so in the future,” he said in his statement. “However, because the topic for the meeting (Affordable Care Act) is so delicate and potentially divisive among the nation’s insurance commissioners, a meaningful discussion between all the commissioners needs to take place before a meeting with the President.”
Donelon expected that the NAIC would put out some of its own research on how the president’s policy would be implemented likely by the end of this week. That could lay the groundwork for a meeting at a future date.
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If a pitch track has been successfully classified, the call type and Mahalanobis distance will be reported below the call. Call types are as follows:
Sei whale: 1, 2 and 3
Fin whale: 4
Right whale: 5, 6, 7 and 8
Humpback whale: 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 and 20
Dashed vertical lines indicate the following DMON events:
MUTEON: the hydrophone is muted to assess system noise and to provide a time mark in the audio recording
MUTEOFF: the hydrophone is unmuted and normal recording has resumed
ADDET_OFF: a maximum of 8 KB of pitch track data per hour is transmitted by the glider. The ADDET_OFF message indicates that this limit has been reached.
ADDET_ON: transmission of pitch track data has resumed
$ADRUN, 0: the glider has reached the surface and will begin data transmission home, so pitch tracking is terminated
$ADRUN, 3: the glider has finished data transmission at the surface and is initiating a dive, so pitch tracking has resumed
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Technology and Learning: Converting Moodle 1.9 Plug-ins to Moodle 2 - Activity Module Upgrade - Part 5
Technology and Learning
Thoughts on learning and education and how technology is changing the way we perceive and perform them.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Converting Moodle 1.9 Plug-ins to Moodle 2 - Activity Module Upgrade - Part 5
This is the fifth part in my Moodle 1.9 to Moodle 2 activity module migration series.
Before I carry on too much farther, there are a couple of other fixes I need to do. One, there are two more occurrences of get_record that did not get caught with the original sweep in "lib.php". And two, there are multiple occurrences of the error function throughout. I need to change error() to print_error(). You can see these changes in the repo.
Next, I need to fix up the "index.php" script using the same navigation and display changes described in my last post. One extra bit I need to add to this script is the call:
$PAGE->set_pagelayout('incourse');
This sets the layout of the page to a default display reserved for module index displays.
Similar to before, I change:
$navigation = build_navigation($strstamps);
print_header_simple($strstamps, '', $navigation, '', '', true, '', navmenu($course));
to:
$PAGE->navbar->add($strstamps);
$PAGE->set_heading(format_string($course->fullname));
$PAGE->set_title(get_string('modulename', 'stampcoll').' '.get_string('activities'));
echo $OUTPUT->header();
In the index code, the old print_table($table) is used. This has been changed to the new html_writer::table($table) construct. Additionally, where before the $table variable could be any standard object, now it must be an instance of the html_table class. So, I add the line:
$table = new html_table();
to a place before it is used, and I change:
print_table($table);
to:
echo html_writer::table($table);
I make a few more of the standard output changes, and all seems to be well.
Something I missed earlier, is that I need to rename the "styles.php" file to "styles.css". This is an easy change, but there is still the possibility that the CSS is not rendering as it did in 1.9, since it may depend on styles that have changed. I'm not going to go to that level here, but keep in mind for your plug-in, that you may need to make changes to your stylesheet to have it display the way it did in Moodle 1.9.
Next up is a problem appearing on the "Edit stamps" page. I can see a broken image where I added a stamp, and the warning message:
Notice: Undefined property: stdClass::$pixpath in /home/www/moodle.git/mod/stampcoll/editstamps.php on line 285 Notice: Undefined property: stdClass::$pixpath in /home/www/moodle.git/mod/stampcoll/editstamps.php on line 289
Here, the problem is with the code $CFG->pixpath.'/t/preview.gif' and $CFG->pixpath.'/t/delete.gif. In Moodle 2, the $CFG->pixpath and $CFG->modpixpath were removed, and replaced with an $OUTPUT->pix_url() function. In this case, I replace:
$CFG->pixpath.'/t/preview.gif'
$CFG->pixpath.'/t/delete.gif
with:
$OUTPUT->pix_url('t/preview')
$OUTPUT->pix_url('t/delete')
Note that both the opening '/' and the extension of the image have been removed in the new code to conform with the function's requirements.
Next, I test the delete function using the newly visible delete icon. After the confirmation page, I see a warning display before the page redirects. The warning says:
You should really redirect before you start page output
line 566 of /lib/outputrenderers.php: call to debugging()
line 2503 of /lib/weblib.php: call to core_renderer->redirect_message()
line 128 of /mod/stampcoll/editstamps.php: call to redirect()
Here, the problem is with the code structure. Because the script has already started page output, by outputting the header, Moodle is telling me I should not redirect to another page. This should be fixed by restructuring the code so that redirects are called before any page output. I'm not going to do that for now, but keep in mind that for good code, this should be done.
One other issue I can see. In the 1.9 version, hovering my mouse over a stamp image, displayed information about that stamp, including any messages entered with it. This is not happening here. Something is wrong with the javascript. Looking deeper, I see that the problem here is that the code is using "Overlib", which was a Javascript library included in older Moodle versions. For Moodle 2, this was removed with the intention of using YUI libraries instead (see MDL-21533). Fixing this will require some research. I'll work on that in the next post.
Posted by Mike Churchward at 5:31 PM
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Labels: Moodle, moodle-plugins, remote-learner
2 comments:
juanwoodward April 5, 2012 at 6:11 AM
Moodle 2.0 is considerably different to the previous editions. One should anticipate much more preparing and examining to be engaged in improving to 2.0. It is likely not to be as uncomplicated as improvements through previous editions.
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About Mike
Mike Churchward is the Executive Director of POET. His charge is to bring together the necessary resources and structures to focus efforts on Open Source projects of interest to POET's members. Mike has been working with Moodle since he stumbled across it in 2004. Mike is also a Moodle developer, the founder of Remote-Learner Canada (formerly Open Knowledge Technologies) and a co-author of the book "Moodle 1.9 Extensions Development". Contact Mike at [email protected], or check out the website at http://poetgroup.org/.
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The State Council Information Office issued a white paper on China's national defense in 2006 at a press conference on December 29. The document, composed of 10 parts, summarizes the country's national defense policy as well as the administration system, logistical support, scientific research and international cooperation for national defense.
Various valuable reference materials and data were provided in the appendices to the white paper. They include: The Leading System of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, Major International Exchanges of the Chinese Military 2005-2006, Participation in Security Consultations (2005-2006), Joint Exercises with Foreign Armed Forces (2005-2006), Participation in UN Peacekeeping Operations, and Major Military Regulations Promulgated 2005-2006.
The white paper says that China's national defense and military modernization, conducted on the basis of steady economic development, is the requirement of keeping up with new trends in the global revolution and development in military affairs, and of maintaining China's national security and development. China will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country. At the new stage in the new century, China will take the scientific development outlook as an important guiding principle for the building of national defense and military affairs, vigorously advance the revolution in military affairs with Chinese features, and strive to realize an all-round, coordinated and sustainable development in our country's national defense and military capabilities.
It also says that China pursues a defense policy which is purely defensive in nature. China's national defense, in keeping with and contributing to the country's development and security strategies, aims at maintaining national security and unity, and ensuring the realization of the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. China is determined to remain a staunch force for global peace, security and stability.
The full text of the document follows:
China's National Defense in 2006
Preface
I. The Security Environment
II. National Defense Policy
III. China's Leadership and Administration System for National Defense
IV. The People's Liberation Army
V. People's Armed Police Force
VI. National Defense Mobilization and Reserve Force
VII. Border and Coastal Defense
VIII. Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense
IX. Defense Expenditure
X. International Security Cooperation
Appendices
Appendix I The Leading System of the Chinese People' Liberation Army
Appendix II Major International Exchanges of the Chinese Military 2005-2006
Appendix III Participation in Security Consultations (2005-2006)
Appendix IV Joint Exercises with Foreign Armed Forces (2005-2006)
Appendix V Participation in UN Peacekeeping Operations (Up to Nov. 30, 2006)
Appendix VI Major Military Regulations Promulgated 2005-2006
Preface
To uphold world peace, promote common development and seek cooperation and win-win is the common wish of the people around the world and an irresistible trend of our times. Committed to peace, development and cooperation, China pursues a road of peaceful development, and endeavors to build, together with other countries, a harmonious world of enduring peace and common prosperity.
Never before has China been so closely bound up with the rest of the world as it is today. The Chinese government works to advance both the fundamental interests of the Chinese people and the common interests of the peoples of the rest of the world, and pursues a defense policy which is purely defensive in nature. China's national defense, in keeping with and contributing to the country's development and security strategies, aims at maintaining national security and unity, and ensuring the realization of the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. China is determined to remain a staunch force for global peace, security and stability.
China's national defense and military modernization, conducted on the basis of steady economic development, is the requirement of keeping up with new trends in the global revolution and development in military affairs, and of maintaining China's national security and development. China will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country. At the new stage in the new century, we will take the scientific development outlook as an important guiding principle for the building of national defense and military affairs, vigorously advance the revolution in military affairs with Chinese features, and strive to realize an all-round, coordinated and sustainable development in our country's national defense and military capabilities.
I. The Security Environment
Peace and development remain the principal themes in today's world, and the overall international security environment remains stable. But, uncertainties and destabilizing factors are on the increase, and new challenges and threats are continuously emerging.
World peace and security face more opportunities than challenges. The world is at a critical stage, moving toward multi-polarity. Progress is expected in addressing the serious imbalances in the international strategic alignment. The major international forces compete with and hold each other in check. But, they also maintain coordination and practical cooperation in their mutual relationships, and draw on each other's strengths. Some major developing countries and regional groupings have grown in power, and the developing world as a whole is becoming stronger. Economic globalization accelerates and science and technology make rapid progress; there are profound changes in the international division of labor, global and regional economic cooperation is being vigorously promoted, leading to increasing interdependence among countries. More dialogues are being conducted on traditional security issues, and cooperation in non-traditional security is developing in depth. To address development and security issues through coordination, cooperation and multilateral mechanism is the preferred approach of the international community. The United Nations' status and role in world affairs are being upheld and strengthened. World wars or all-out confrontation between major countries are avoidable for the foreseeable future.
The international community is increasingly facing comprehensive, diverse and complex security threats. The world is not yet peaceful. Political, economic and security problems and geographical, ethnic and religious contradictions are interconnected and complex. Hegemonism and power politics remain key factors undermining international security. Non-traditional security threats present greater danger, and local turmoil caused by war is on and off, and some hotspots cannot be removed in a short time. The impact of economic globalization is spreading into the political, security and social fields. Global economic development is uneven, and the gap between the North and the South is widening. Security issues related to energy, resources, finance, information and international shipping routes are mounting. International terrorist forces remain active, shocking terrorist acts keep occurring. Natural disasters, serious communicable diseases, environmental degradation, international crime and other transnational problems are becoming more damaging in nature.
A revolution in military affairs is developing in depth worldwide. Military competition based on informationization is intensifying. There has not been major change in the imbalances in relative military strength. Some developed countries have increased their input into the military and speeded up R&D of high-tech weaponry to gain military superiority. Many developing countries are also upgrading their armaments and modernizing their military forces. The situation regarding the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction remains grave and complex. The international non-proliferation regime faces major challenges. The practice of a small number of countries that have intensified their military alliances and resorted to force or threats of force in international affairs has shown new developments, which hinder efforts to improve international security.
The overall security environment in the Asia-Pacific region remains stable. The regional economy maintains an unprecedented strong momentum of growth, and a framework of open and mutually beneficial cooperation based on equality and in diversified forms is taking shape in the region. Multilateral security dialogue and cooperation are being enhanced. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has entered a new stage of substantive growth, contributing to the establishment of a new mode of state-to-state relations. ASEAN has made steady progress in community-building and in talks on establishing free trade areas with other countries. East Asian cooperation, which is conducted mainly through the ASEAN plus China, Japan and the ROK (10+3) channel, has expanded in scope and its institutional building is improving constantly, continuing to play a major role in promoting peace, stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region. The East Asia Summit has provided a new platform for East Asian cooperation. Moreover, significant progress has been made in South Asian regional cooperation. There is improvement in the relations between India and Pakistan.
There are growing complexities in the Asia-Pacific security environment. There is a new adjustment going on in the strategic alignment and relations among major countries in the region, and new changes have occurred in the hotspots in the region. The United States is accelerating its realignment of military deployment to enhance its military capability in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States and Japan are strengthening their military alliance in pursuit of operational integration. Japan seeks to revise its constitution and exercise collective self-defense. Its military posture is becoming more external-oriented. The DPRK has launched missile tests and conducted a nuclear test. Thus, the situation on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia has become more complex and challenging. Iraq and Afghanistan continue to face turbulence. The Middle East has become more volatile. A settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue is not yet in sight. Territorial disputes, conflicting claims over maritime rights and interests, and ethnic and religious discords undermine trust and cooperation among states. The threat of terrorism, separatism and extremism remains serious. In addition, some countries face growing internal problems caused by social and economic transition.
China's overall security environment remains sound. China is committed to building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and a socialist harmonious society, and it enjoys steady economic growth, political stability, ethnic harmony and social progress. Its overall national strength has considerably increased, as has its international standing and influence. China's practical cooperation with major countries continues to grow, its friendly relations with its neighboring countries have developed steadily, and it is forging strong ties with other developing countries. This has given rise to a new relationship of mutual benefit and win-win between China and other countries. The Chinese government has taken a number of significant measures to improve relations across the Taiwan Straits, thus promoting cross-Straits relations toward peace and stability.
However, China's security still faces challenges that must not be neglected. The growing interconnections between domestic and international factors and interconnected traditional and non-traditional factors have made maintaining national security a more challenging task. The struggle to oppose and contain the separatist forces for "Taiwan independence" and their activities remains a hard one. By pursuing a radical policy for "Taiwan independence," the Taiwan authorities aim at creating "de jure Taiwan independence" through "constitutional reform, " thus still posing a grave threat to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as to peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits and in the Asia-Pacific region as a whole. The United States has reiterated many times that it will adhere to the "one China" policy and honor the three joint communiqés between China and the United States. But, it continues to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, and has strengthened its military ties with Taiwan. A small number of countries have stirred up a racket about a "China threat," and intensified their preventive strategy against China and strove to hold its progress in check. Complex and sensitive historical and current issues in China's surrounding areas still affect its security environment.
China persists in continuing its peaceful development road. Balancing developments in both domestic and international situations, it is well prepared to respond to complexities in the international security environment. Guided by a security strategy of promoting both development and security, China strives to build a socialist harmonious society at home and a harmonious world to ensure both its overall national security and enduring peace in the world. It endeavors to enhance both development and security, both internal security and external security and both traditional security and non-traditional security; works to uphold its sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity and promote national development; and strives to sustain the important period of strategic opportunity for national development. China is committed to fostering a cooperative relationship of mutual benefit and win-win with other countries and working with them to promote common security.
II. National Defense Policy
China pursues a national defense policy which is purely defensive in nature. China's national defense provides the guarantee for maintaining China's security and unity, and realizing the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. To build a powerful and fortified national defense is a strategic task of China's modernization drive.
China pursues a three-step development strategy in modernizing its national defense and armed forces, in accordance with the state's overall plan to realize modernization. The first step is to lay a solid foundation by 2010, the second is to make major progress around 2020, and the third is to basically reach the strategic goal of building informationized armed forces and being capable of winning informationized wars by the mid-21st century.
China's national defense policy for the new stage in the new century is defined as follows:
· Upholding national security and unity, and ensure the interests of national development. This includes guarding against and resisting aggression, defending against violation of China's territorial sea and air space, and borders; opposing and containing the separatist forces for "Taiwan independence" and their activities, taking precautions against and cracking down on terrorism, separatism and extremism in all forms. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is dedicated to performing its historical missions for the new stage in the new century, namely, providing an important source of strength for consolidating the ruling position of the Communist Party of China (CPC), providing a solid security guarantee for sustaining the important period of strategic opportunity for national development, providing a strong strategic support for safeguarding national interests, and playing a major role in maintaining world peace and promoting common development. It improves its capabilities of countering various security threats, accomplishes diversified military tasks, and ensures that it can effectively respond to crises, maintain peace, deter and win wars under complex circumstances.
· Achieving the all-round, coordinated and sustainable development of China's national defense and armed forces. China pursues a policy of coordinated development of national defense and economy. It keeps the modernization of China's national defense and armed forces as an integral part of its social and economic development, so as to ensure that the modernization of its national defense and armed forces advance in step with the national modernization drive. China works in a comprehensive way to ensure that its armed forces are revolutionary in nature, modernized and regularized. It strives to ensure coordination between the revolution in military affairs with Chinese features and preparations for military struggle, mechanization and informationization, combat force building of services and arms, current and long-term development, and efforts devoted to the main and secondary strategic directions. China works to deepen the adjustment and reform of its military organizations and structures, as well as policies and systems, address deep-seated impediments and problems in its military structures and mechanisms which hinder the development of its armed forces, boost innovation in its military organizational structure and military management, and improve efficiency in its military modernization drive.
· Enhancing the performance of the armed forces with informationization as the major measuring criterion. The PLA, taking mechanization as the foundation and informationization as the driving force, promotes the composite development of informationization and mechanization to achieve overall capability improvement in the fields of firepower, assault, mobility, protection and information. The PLA pursues a strategy of strengthening itself by means of science and technology, and works to accelerate change in the generating mode of war fighting capabilities by drawing on scientific and technological advances. The PLA seeks to raise its capabilities of independent innovation in weaponry and equipment, as well as defense-related science and technology, and strives to make major breakthroughs in some basic, pioneering and technological fields of strategic importance. It is stepping up its efforts to build a joint operational command system, training system and support system for fighting informationized wars and enhance the building of systems integration of services and arms. The PLA is carrying out a strategic project for training a large contingent of new-type and high-caliber military personnel suited to the task of informationization of the armed forces and competent for operational tasks under conditions of informationization. The PLA is also working to make its training more technology-intensive and innovative in training programs, means and methods.
· Implementing the military strategy of active defense. The PLA ensures that it is well prepared for military struggle, with winning local wars under conditions of informationization and enhancing national sovereignty, security, and interests of development as its objective. It will upgrade and develop the strategic concept of people's war, and work for close coordination between military struggle and political, economic, diplomatic, cultural and legal endeavors, uses strategies and tactics in a comprehensive way, and takes the initiative to prevent and defuse crises and deter conflicts and wars. The PLA will establish step by step a modern national defense mobilization system that is centralized and unified, well structured, rapid in reaction, and authoritative and efficient. Taking joint operations as the basic form, the PLA aims to bring the operational strengths of different services and arms into full play. The Army aims at moving from regional defense to trans-regional mobility, and improving its capabilities in air-ground integrated operations, long-distance maneuvers, rapid assaults and special operations. The Navy aims at gradual extension of the strategic depth for offshore defensive operations and enhancing its capabilities in integrated maritime operations and nuclear counterattacks. The Air Force aims at speeding up its transition from territorial air defense to both offensive and defensive operations, and increasing its capabilities in the areas of air strike, air and missile defense, early warning and reconnaissance, and strategic projection. The Second Artillery Force aims at progressively improving its force structure of having both nuclear and conventional missiles, and raising its capabilities in strategic deterrence and conventional strike under conditions of informationization.
· Pursuing a self-defensive nuclear strategy. China's nuclear strategy is subject to the state's nuclear policy and military strategy. Its fundamental goal is to deter other countries from using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against China. China remains firmly committed to the policy of no first use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances. It unconditionally undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones, and stands for the comprehensive prohibition and complete elimination of nuclear weapons. China upholds the principles of counterattack in self-defense and limited development of nuclear weapons, and aims at building a lean and effective nuclear force capable of meeting national security needs. It endeavors to ensure the security and reliability of its nuclear weapons and maintains a credible nuclear deterrent force. China's nuclear force is under the direct command of the Central Military Commission (CMC). China exercises great restraint in developing its nuclear force. It has never entered into and will never enter into a nuclear arms race with any other country.
· Fostering a security environment conducive to China's peaceful development. China maintains military contacts with other countries on the basis of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, and develops cooperative military relations that are non-aligned, non-confrontational and not directed against any third party. China takes part in international security cooperation, strengthens strategic coordination and consultation with major powers and neighboring countries, and conducts bilateral or multilateral joint military exercises. It promotes the establishment of just and effective collective security mechanisms and military confidence-building mechanisms, and works with other countries to prevent conflicts and wars. China stands for effective disarmament and arms control that are just, reasonable, comprehensive and balanced in nature. China opposes nuclear proliferation, and endeavors to advance the process of international nuclear disarmament. China observes the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, honors its international obligations, and participates in UN peacekeeping operations, international counter-terrorism cooperation and international disaster relief operations. It plays an active part in maintaining global and regional peace and stability.
III. China's Leadership and Administration System for National Defense
China has established and keeps improving a leadership and administration system for national defense in accordance with the Constitution, the National Defense Law and other relevant laws. The state exercises unified leadership over national defense activities. China's armed forces are under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC). The Central Military Commission (CMC) of the CPC and that of the People's Republic of China (PRC) are completely the same in their composition and in their function of exercising leadership over the armed forces. The CMC chairman has overall responsibility for its work.
The National People's Congress (NPC) elects the chairman of the CMC of the PRC and, upon nomination by the chairman, decides on the choice of all other members of the CMC. The NPC decides on war and peace and exercises other functions and powers relating to national defense as prescribed by the Constitution. When the NPC is in recess, its Standing Committee decides on the proclamation of a state of war, decides on the general or partial mobilization of the country, and exercises other functions and powers relating to national defense as prescribed by the Constitution. The president of the PRC, in pursuance of the decisions of the NPC and its Standing Committee, may proclaim a state of war, issue mobilization orders, and exercise other functions and powers relating to national defense as prescribed by the Constitution.
The State Council directs and administers national defense building in the following areas: making national defense development programs and plans, formulating principles, policies and administrative regulations for defense building, administering defense expenditure and assets, directing and administering national defense scientific research and production, directing and administering work related to mobilization of the national economy, mobilization of people's armed forces, people's air defense and national defense traffic, directing and administering the work of supporting the military and giving preferential treatment to families of servicemen and martyrs, as well as the resettlement of servicemen discharged from active service. It also directs national defense education and, jointly with the CMC, the building of the Chinese People's Armed Police Force (PAPF) and the militia, the work concerning enlistment and reserve service, and the administration of border, coastal and air defenses, and exercises other functions and powers relating to national defense building as prescribed by law. Under the State Council are the Ministry of National Defense (MND) and other departments concerning national defense building.
The CMC directs and exercises unified command of China's armed forces. It has the following functions and powers: deciding on the military strategy and operational guidelines of the armed forces, directing and administering the building of the PLA, submitting proposals related to national defense to the NPC or its Standing Committee, formulating military regulations, issuing decisions and orders, deciding on the structure and organization of the PLA, appointing and removing, training, evaluating, and rewarding and punishing members of the armed forces, approving systems and development programs and plans for weaponry and equipment, and exercising other functions and powers as prescribed by law.
The PLA's General Staff Headquarters, General Political Department, General Logistics Department and General Armaments Department are departments of the CMC respectively responsible for military, political, logistical and equipment work. The General Staff Headquarters organizes and directs the development of China's armed forces, and organizes and commands their military operations. Under it are departments in charge of operations, intelligence, communications, military training and arms, adjutant and force structure, mobilization, electronic countermeasures, Army aviation, foreign affairs, etc. Its main functions and powers are to put forward proposals on major issues of military building and operations, organize and exercise strategic command, formulate programs, rules and regulations for military work, and organize and direct war preparations, as well as military training and mobilization. The General Political Department administers the armed forces' Party work, and organizes their political work. Under it are departments in charge of Party affairs, personnel, publicity, security, discipline inspection, civil-military affairs, etc. Its main responsibilities are to ensure the armed forces' compliance with and implementation of the lines, principles and policies of the Party and the Constitution and laws of the state, draw up general and specific policies for political work, formulate rules and regulations for political work, and make arrangements for, supervise and provide guidance to the political work of the armed forces. The General Logistics Department administers the logistical work of the armed forces. Under it are departments in charge of financial matters, quartermaster materials and petroleum, oils and lubricants, health administration, military transportation, capital construction and barracks, auditing, etc. Its main responsibilities are to formulate programs, rules and regulations for logistical construction, deploy logistical forces, organize logistical mobilization and provide logistical support, carry out the application, allocation, budgeting and final accounting of military expenditure, and conduct material procurement. The General Armaments Department administers the provision of equipment for the armed forces. Under it are departments in charge of overall planning, equipment for all services and arms, procurement for Army's military equipment R&D, general-purpose equipment support, electronic information infrastructure, etc. Its main responsibilities are to formulate strategies, programs and plans, policies, and rules and regulations for equipment development, organize equipment R&D, experimentation, procurement, combat service, maintenance and support, and administer the PLA's funds for equipment buildup.
The Army has no independent leading body, and the leadership of it is exercised by the four general headquarters/departments. A military area command exercises direct leadership over the Army units under it. The Army has 18 combined corps, which are mobile combat troops. The Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force, each of which has a leading body consisting of the headquarters, the political department, the logistics department and the armaments department, direct the military, political, logistical and equipment work of their respective troops, and take part in the command of joint operations. The Navy organizes and commands maritime operations conducted independently by its troops or in support of maritime operations. There are three fleets under the Navy, namely, the Beihai Fleet, Donghai Fleet and Nanhai Fleet. Each fleet has flotillas, aviation divisions, etc. under its command. The Air Force organizes and commands air operations conducted independently by itself or with Air Force personnel as the main fighting force, as well as air defense operations in the capital area. It has an air command in each of the seven military area commands of Shenyang, Beijing, Lanzhou, Jinan, Nanjing, Guangzhou and Chengdu, respectively. Under an air command are aviation divisions, ground-to-air missile divisions (brigades and regiments), antiaircraft artillery brigades (regiments), radar brigades (regiments) and other support troops. In major directions and key target areas there are also corps- or division-level command posts. The Second Artillery Force organizes and commands its own troops in case of launching nuclear counterattacks with strategic missiles and conducting operations with conventional missiles. Under it are missile and training bases, and relevant support troops.
Military area commands (theaters of war) are military organizations set up according to the administrative divisions of the state, geographical locations, strategic and operational directions, and operational tasks. They are CMC-appointed organs for commanding joint theater operations. They direct the military, political, logistical and equipment work of the troops under them. Under a military area command are the headquarters, the political department, the joint logistics department and the armaments department. A military area command is mainly in charge of formulating programs and plans for combat readiness and operations of troops in the theater and for the reserve force buildup of the theater, organizing and commanding joint theater operations involving different services and arms, and providing joint logistical support. At present, the PLA has seven military area commands, namely, Shenyang, Beijing, Lanzhou, Jinan, Nanjing, Guangzhou and Chengdu. Under a military area command are combined Army corps, units of various Army arms, logistical support units and provincial military commands (garrison commands at the same level).
Provincial military commands (garrison commands at the same level) are organizations set up by the PLA in province-level administrative areas, and are under military area commands. They also serve as departments of Party committees for military work and organs of government for military service at the level of province (municipality directly under the central government, or autonomous region). So, they are under the dual leadership of the military area commands and local Party committees and governments at the same level. The leading body of a provincial military command consists of the headquarters, the political department and the logistics department. A provincial military command directs the military, political, logistical and equipment work of the units under it, and oversees reserve force building, peacetime enlistment and wartime strength mobilization in its area of responsibility.
Prefectural military commands (garrison commands at the same level) are organizations set up by the PLA in prefectures (prefecture-level cities, autonomous prefectures or leagues). They are under provincial military commands, but also serve as departments of Party committees for military work and organs of government for military service at the level of the prefecture (prefecture-level city, autonomous prefecture or league). So, they are under the dual leadership of the provincial military commands and local Party committees and governments at the same level. The leading body of a prefectural military command consists of the headquarters, the political department and the logistics department. The main tasks of a prefectural military command are to oversee the military training, political work and equipment management of the militia and reserve force, organize and conduct wartime mobilization, and undertake military service registration and enlistment. Prefectural military commands in border areas are also in charge of the military, political, logistical and equipment work of border defense troops as well as border defense duties, talks and meetings, and border management, protection and control.
People's armed forces departments are organizations set up by the PLA in counties (banners, county-level cities or municipal districts). They are under prefectural military commands, but also serve as departments of Party committees for military work and organs of government for military service work at the level of the county (banner, county-level city or municipal district). So, they are under the dual leadership of the prefectural military commands and local Party committees and governments at the same level. A people's armed forces department consists typically of a military affairs section, a political work section and a logistics section. Its main tasks are to oversee reserve force buildup, combat readiness, military service and mobilization, and command militia operations. The grass-roots people's armed forces departments established by the state at the level of township (town) or sub-district are non-active-duty organizations. They are manned by full-time staff that are under the dual leadership of the local Party committees and governments at the same level and military organs at higher levels.
In addition, local people's congresses at all levels and the standing committees of local people's congresses at and above the county level ensure the compliance with and implementation of laws and regulations relating to national defense in their respective administrative areas. Local people's governments at all levels, within the authority they enjoy as prescribed by law, are responsible for enlistment, militia forces, reserve service, national defense education, mobilization of the economy, civil air defense, national defense traffic, protection of defense installations, resettlement of servicemen discharged from active service, supporting the PLA and giving preferential treatment to families of servicemen and martyrs and other related matters in their respective administrative areas. Local people's governments at various levels and the military organs stationed there hold joint civil-military meetings as called for to handle matters concerning national defense in their respective administrative areas.
IV. The People's Liberation Army
To effectively fulfill its historic mission in the new stage of the new century, the PLA is speeding up the revolution in military affairs with Chinese features and enhancing in an all-round way its capabilities of defensive operations under conditions of informationization.
Completing the Reduction of 200,000 Troops
In 1985, 1997 and 2003, China announced that it would cut the size of the PLA by one million, 500,000 and 200,000 persons, respectively. By the end of 2005, China had completed reducing the PLA by 200,000 troops, and the PLA currently has 2.3 million troops. The PLA has made new progress towards the goal of being proper in size, optimal in structure, streamlined in organization, swift and flexible in command, and powerful in fighting capacity.
Downsizing the PLA. The Army was the focus of force reduction, and its authorized number of personnel has been reduced by more than 130,000. Over 60,000 military personnel have been removed from the headquarters and directly affiliated units of military area commands and provincial military commands. Through restructuring, the proportion of the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force in the PLA has been raised by 3.8 percent while that of the Army has been lowered by 1.5 percent.
Streamlining the headquarters and directly affiliated units as well as educational institutions. More than 3,000 departments of and over 400 units directly affiliated to the headquarters at and above the regimental level have been cut. A considerable number of agricultural and sideline production units, cultural and sports units, military representative offices at railway stations and material supply organs have been closed. The PLA has also closed 15 educational institutions and 31 training organizations.
Improving the structure of services and arms. The Army has cut a number of combined corps, divisions and regiments, increased the number of combined corps whose order of battle is corps, brigade and battalion, and set up units with new and high-tech weaponry and equipment. The Navy and Air Force have cut some ship groups and aviation divisions, regiments and stations, and set up some high-tech surface ship, aviation and ground-to-air missile units. A number of reserve infantry divisions have been dismantled, but the number of divisions (brigades) of other arms has increased.
Reforming the leadership and command system. The leadership and command system of the general headquarters/departments has been enhanced through adjusting the functions of relevant departments and improving joint operational command. The Navy has cut the naval aviation department and converted naval bases into support ones. The Air Force has closed corps (base) headquarters and set up regional command posts. Following these adjustments, the combat troops of the Navy and Air Force are now directly under the fleets and the air commands of the military areas, respectively.
Deepening the reform of the joint logistical support system. The joint logistical support system, based on military area commands, has been expanded, and overlapping support organizations reduced. Apart from special-purpose depots and general hospitals under the general headquarters/departments, the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force, all the other rear depots, hospitals and recuperation centers have been integrated and reorganized into the joint logistical support system. A total of eight joint logistical sub-departments (offices), 94 rear depots, and 47 hospitals and recuperation centers have been closed.
Improving the ratio between officers and men. The PLA has reduced the number of its officers by 170,000. More than 150 officer posts at or above the corps level have been eliminated, nearly 70,000 posts formerly taken by officers are now filled with non-commissioned officers (NCOs), and over 20,000 posts formerly taken by NCOs are now filled with contract civilians.
Development of the Services and Arms
The Army is speeding up the upgrading and informationization of its active main battle equipment to build a new type of ground combat force which is lean, combined, agile and multi-functional. Priority is given to building Army aviation, light mechanized and information countermeasures units. The share of the armored component in the Army combined combat forces has been further raised. The artillery and air defense component has fielded new types of cannons, field antiaircraft missiles, reconnaissance early warning radars, fire-control systems, and intelligence and command systems, and increased the proportion of ground-to-air missiles to antiaircraft guns. The engineering component has grown in step with the main combat arms, and improved its capabilities of accompanying support and precision support. The anti-chemical component has established a preliminary nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) protection system tailored to joint operations, and greatly increased its capabilities of rapid NBC protection, NBC emergency rescue and operations against NBC terrorism. The communications component has enhanced the building of platforms for general-purpose information transmission and processing, C2 systems and spectrum management systems, and raised communications and information support capabilities.
Founded in 1986, the Army aviation arm has a three-level (general headquarters/departments, theaters of war and first-line task groups) administration system. Equipped mainly with armed helicopters, transport helicopters and service helicopters, it carries out air strike, air landing, airlifting and battlefield service support operations. The Army aviation arm works to strengthen its capabilities of rapid power projection, precision strike, long-range assault and support.
The Navy is working to build itself into a modern maritime force of operation consisting of combined arms with both nuclear and conventional means of operations. Taking informationization as the goal and strategic focus in its modernization drive, the Navy gives high priority to the development of maritime information systems, and new-generation weaponry and equipment. Efforts are being made to improve maritime battlefield capabilities, with emphasis on the construction of relevant facilities for new equipment and the development of combat support capabilities. The Navy is endeavoring to build mobile maritime troops capable of conducting operations under conditions of informationization, and strengthen its overall capabilities of operations in coastal waters, joint operations and integrated maritime support. Efforts are being made to improve and reform training programs and methods to intensify training in joint integrated maritime operations. The Navy is enhancing research into the theory of naval operations and exploring the strategy and tactics of maritime people's war under modern conditions.
The Air Force is working to build an informationized air fighting force with both offensive and defensive capabilities. It is reducing the number of combat aircraft, giving priority to the development of new fighters as well as air and missile defense weapons. It is working to enhance command and control systems. It stresses mission-oriented and confrontational training, increasing combined tactical training of different arms and aircraft types, and conducts training in flying refitted new aircraft and using new weaponry and equipment in an active and stable way. Air Force pilot training is conducted at flying colleges, training bases and combat units in five phases, namely, basic education, primary flying, advanced flying, refitted combat aircraft flying and tactical flying. Aviation units mainly conduct training in counter-air operations, air-to-ground attacks and joint operations. Pilots fly training hours are commensurate with the tasks assigned to pilots.
The Second Artillery Force is striving to build a streamlined and effective strategic force with both nuclear and conventional capabilities. It is quickening its steps to raise the informationization level of its weaponry and equipment systems, build an agile and efficient operational command and control system, and increase its capabilities of land-based strategic nuclear counterstrikes and precision strikes with conventional missiles. It is improving the construction of its battlefield system, and associated logistics and equipment, and raising the cost-effectiveness of integrated support. It is deepening the reform of training, enhancing integrated training, using scientific and technological achievements to raise training quality. It is strengthening the safety management and control mechanism of nuclear missiles, and improving the relevant rules and regulations and technical preventive measures as well as emergency steps for handling nuclear accidents. The Second Artillery Force is equipped with surface-to-surface strategic missiles and tactical operational missiles of various types.
Military Training
The PLA regards military training as a basic means to raise its combat effectiveness in peacetime, as well as an important method to foster and administer troops. It takes vigorous steps to accelerate the transition from military training under conditions of mechanization to military training under conditions of informationization. At the PLA-wide military training conference held in June 2006, the General Staff Headquarters put forward a comprehensive plan for carrying out military training in a creative way for the new stage in the new century. It called on all PLA troops to set high and strict standards, base their training on actual combat, use scientific and technological means in training, advance the reform of training, and elevate military training to a higher level.
The PLA conducts training in strict accordance with the requirements for winning local wars under conditions of informationization. It conducts basic technical and tactical training, combined tactical training, and strategic and operational training. The PLA conducts training and integration to boost its combat capabilities level by level. It conducts training with live ammunition and holds exercises with opposing players in a realistic manner to temper troops in near-real-war environment. The PLA conducts training by scientific and technological means, employs modern training methods and means, and develops on-base, simulated and networked training. It is increasing the use of scientific and technological means with focus on improving the quality and effect of training.
The PLA focuses on enhancing joint training to improve the integrated joint operational capabilities of various services and arms. It gives priority to the training of joint campaign commanders and command organs, joint field exercises and the training of different support forces in integrated support. It works to enhance the commanding and organizing capabilities of strategic and operational commanders and command organs, and the joint operational capabilities of the services and arms. Keeping in mind the future informationized battlefield, the PLA closely follows the emerging trend of integrated joint operations, conducts integrated training in an innovative way, and actively explores training approaches for the internal integration of fighting units, systems integration of fighting elements and comprehensive integration of fighting systems.
The PLA conducts training in strict accordance with pre-set plans, and is strengthening the scientific management of the overall processes and all the aspects of training. It is exploring new modes for organizing and managing training under conditions of informationization, and intensifying precise and mission-oriented management according to law to keep training processes standardized. It is improving training procedures, making strict training assessments, and setting and improving training standards to meet the requirements of informationized operations. Priority is given to the training of command organs and collective training. The PLA uses live-ammunition exercises and means such as exercise assessment systems for a comprehensive evaluation of the training and combat capabilities of the troops.
Political Work
The basic tasks of the PLA's political work are as follows: ensuring the success of the reform and opening-up of the country and the building of a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, as well as promoting the socialist modernization; advancing the revolution in military affairs with Chinese features, as well as the revolutionization, modernization and regularization of the PLA; guaranteeing --politically, ideologically and organizationally -- the nature of the people's army under the absolute leadership of the Party; upholding the PLA's socialist ethical standards, the goal of which is to cultivate military personnel with lofty ideals, high moral standards, a wide range of knowledge and a keen sense of discipline; ensuring the PLA's internal unity, unity between the PLA and the government, and unity between the PLA and the people; and ensuring the PLA's combat effectiveness and the accomplishment of the PLA's tasks.
In the long years of fighting revolutionary wars and seeking modernization, a fine tradition of democracy has taken root and a complete democratic system has developed within the PLA. The conference of servicemen's representatives at the levels of the brigade and regiment is part of this democratic system, which ensures the practice of democracy and the right of servicemen to exercise their democratic rights and participate in troop management. The conference of servicemen's representatives is mainly tasked with reviewing the work reports of their commanders, supervising their units' compliance with and implementation of regulations, orders and directives from the above, voicing servicemen's opinions, raising demands on their behalf and monitoring the use of funds in their units. Guided by Party committees and political organs at the same level, units at the levels of brigade and regiment hold annual conferences of servicemen's representatives. The representatives are selected through bottom-up democratic elections from among active servicemen and employees on the PLA payroll. Led by Party branches or grass-roots Party committees and directed by military and political chiefs, the servicemen's committee is an organization through which companies and company-level units practice democracy in political, economic and military affairs, ensure servicemen's democratic rights and conduct servicemen's activities.
The PLA conducts political work in a creative way to raise the overall performance of its officers and men. The PLA educates its officers and men in its historic mission, ideals, beliefs, fighting spirit, and the socialist concept of honor and disgrace, to raise mission awareness, foster revolutionary ideals, strengthen the will to fight, draw a clear line between right and wrong, and arouse enthusiasm for training. The PLA conducts psychological training and studies on psychological operations, and has in place a mechanism involving both political and medical institutions to provide psychological education, catharsis and health service. The CMC and the general headquarters/departments have formulated a series of policies and regulations to strengthen the building of grass-roots units. Most of the commanding organs at and above the regiment level have mechanisms to coordinate grass-roots work. In the course of implementing the Outline for Armed Forces Building at the Grass-Roots Level, a large number of advanced grass-roots units and excellent soldiers have come to the fore.
Logistical Support
To ensure the cost-effectiveness of logistical support, the PLA is enhancing the management and reform of logistical support in an effort to build a modern logistics system.
Upgrading logistics management. The PLA is speeding up the formulation of logistical rules, regulations and standards to establish a standardized system covering supply, consumption and management. During the period of the Tenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2001-2005) (hereinafter referred to as the Tenth Five-Year Plan), the PLA conducted a comprehensive review of its logistical regulations and standards. Over 200 standards were adopted or revised, and more than 240 regulations were enacted. During the period of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2006-2010) (hereinafter referred to as the Eleventh Five-Year Plan), the PLA is giving priority to standardizing logistical supply and establishing a mechanism for the dynamic adjustment of supply and support standards. It is strengthening the management of logistics and ensuring the overall sound implementation of the military budget. In addition, it is enforcing financial and economic discipline through strict auditing supervision.
Improving the material life conditions of the officers and men. The PLA has adopted the practice of serving separate portions of food to improve hygienic conditions. Some organic battalions have begun to provide battalion-based food service. Board expenses of enlisted men have been increased substantially since January 1, 2005, and now the food supply for officers and men aims at providing sufficient nutrition rather than just serving enough food. From July 1, 2006, the salaries for service people have been increased by a wide margin. The PLA has issued new types of uniforms to the enlisted and Air Force officers and men, new types of special-purpose fatigue clothing to troops other than those of the Army, and new types of plateau cold-proof uniforms to some troops stationed in Xinjiang and Tibet.
Steadily advancing logistics reform. Adhering to the principles of the incorporation of tri-service components into joint logistical organs, joint management and employment of support entities, and unified organization of supply and support, the PLA is conducting experimental reforms in joint logistics in the Jinan Theatre. This marks an important step towards the goal of building an integrated tri-service logistical support system. It involves comprehensive efforts to expand the reform of the centralized payment system to establish a support mode of fund settlement with single financial accounts as the basis and centraliz ed payment as the main form. The reform of the military medical support system is being smoothly carried out, with priority given to ensuring the medical care of military personnel. Over 70 percent of the PLA's employees are covered by the social medical insurance system. The housing system reform has made progress, and a housing system for military personnel has taken shape which combines military support with social support, government houses with self-owned houses, and supply in kind with supply in money.
In October 2004, the General Staff Headquarters, General Political Department and General Logistics Department jointly issued the Circular on Further Promoting the Reform of Military Materials Procurement under the Corps Level. The PLA has basically established a three-level (logistical organs of the general headquarters/departments, major units, and units) materials procurement and management system and a system of centralized procurement. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the PLA's centralized procurement reached RMB 45 billion, enabling it to save RMB 3.15 billion and spend 7 percent less on average.
Weaponry and Equipment
With the backing of China's economic development and scientific and technological achievements, the PLA is accelerating its weaponry and equipment modernization drive mainly by relying on its own efforts.
Planning long-term weaponry and equipment development in a scientific way. Based on the military strategic guidelines of the new era and the outline for the building and development of the military, the PLA is making efforts to correctly handle the relationship between the needs of equipment development and the availability of funds. As required by comprehensive integration of the Army, Navy and Air Force, joint operation and systems building, the PLA has conducted studies and feasibility assessments of its weaponry and equipment development strategy, adopted the outline and the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for weaponry and equipment development, and set the direction, goals and priorities of its future weaponry and equipment development.
Enhancing the capability of independent weaponry and equipment innovation. The PLA is strengthening applied and basic research as well as research on key defense technologies, ensuring the application of technological achievements and raising its capabilities of original innovation, integrated innovation, and innovation through digesting and absorbing introduced technologies. It is improving the innovation mechanism for defense-related science and technology, and weaponry and equipment to support the independent, leapfrogging and sustainable development of new and high-tech weaponry and equipment.
Optimizing the system of weaponry and equipment. The PLA gives priority to developing new types of equipment which are advanced and reliable in technical performance, and effective in operations. It is speeding up the development of integrated electronic information systems, enhancing the comprehensive integration of various types of weapon systems and support systems, and facilitating information sharing and fusion. The PLA is accelerating the retirement of redundant equipment, carrying out the prioritized, selective and phased retrofitting of equipment and informationization of equipment on active service, and tapping the potential of existing equipment. It is strengthening the systematic development of equipment to form a complete system of equipment, weaponry and equipment support.
Increasing the capability of integrated equipment support. The PLA is strict with equipment management and carries out scientific, institutionalized and regular evaluation on such management in order to maintain and improve the operability of existing equipment. The PLA has established and improved mechanisms for integrated civilian-military equipment support. It is developing new and high maintenance technologies, widening their application and enhancing the capabilities of equipment maintenance, emergency rescue and repair, and remote technical support. It is strengthening equipment support force building, equipment support training, pre-field training and training of qualified equipment personnel, to promote the organic and systematic development of operational and support capabilities of equipment.
Actively advancing the reform of the equipment procurement system. In December 2005, the CMC approved and issued the Opinions on Some Issues Concerning the Deepening of the Equipment Procurement System Reform. In the past two years, the General Armaments Department has improved the review and approval of equipment procurement modes, and gradually enlarged the scope of competitive procurement, raising the percentage of funds for such procurement from 10 percent to 20 percent. The General Armaments Department has strengthened the management of the centralized procurement of equipment of the same kind for the whole PLA, formulated related rules, regulations and standards, and substantially increased the quantities and varieties of equipment procured in a centralized way, saving eight percent of the planned funds and greatly improving the efficiency of fund use.
Military Legal System
During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the Standing Committee of the NPC, the State Council and the CMC, exercising their prescribed functions and powers, formulated and revised 99 military laws and regulations. The general headquarters/departments, military area commands, Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force formulated and revised nearly 900 military rules and regulations. In 2006, the CMC began to implement its law-making program for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period. In a period of five years, a military legal system will take shape which covers multiple aspects, and is coherent, scientific, closely knit and well-designed.
As military courts exercise the function of civil trial within the military, military procuratorates have begun to conduct civil prosecution on a trial basis and supervise civil trials in the military in accordance with the law. In line with the regulations on the people's supervisory system practiced by civil procuratorates, military procuratorates have started to introduce, on a trial basis, a system of servicemen's supervisors to strengthen supervision over investigation of misconduct on duty. In conformity with the requirements of the state's procedural law, a new servicemen's jury system has been established, which specifies the selection of jury members and the procedure for the performance of their duties. In keeping with the state's judicial system, the PLA has instituted a specialized rank system for military judges and procurators which consists of 11 grades at three levels. This has enhanced the professional performance of the military judicial personnel.
In recent years, based on the experience gained from appointing military lawyers at the three levels of combined corps, division and brigade in the Army, units at and above the brigade level in the Second Artillery Force have also started to be staffed with military lawyers. The General Armaments Department and the Navy have set up professional legal advisory offices concerning national defense patents and maritime issues. Military lawyers have played an active role in providing support to commanding officers and organs in decision-making, defending defendants in criminal trials, and undertaking civil cases to protect the legitimate rights and interests of military units and personnel.
Military Institutional Education
Under the unified leadership of the CMC, the PLA institutional education is managed at two levels: by the general headquarters/departments and by the military area commands (Navy, Air Force or Second Artillery Force). The four general headquarters/departments provide overall guidance for all PLA educational institutions, and the General Staff Headquarters administers military education. The development goal of military educational institutions is to establish and improve a new school system with distinct military features to shift priority from education of officer candidates for academic credentials to pre-assignment education. The new system takes pre-assignment educational institutions as the main form, and makes a distinction between these two types of education. The PLA has 67 military educational institutions, which are divided into two types: those for academic credentials and those for pre-assignment education. The former offers undergraduate education for pre-commission officers and graduate education for officers. The latter consists of elementary, intermediate and advanced level institutions and NCO schools, and offers pre-assignment training and rotational training for active-duty officers and NCOs. Some pre-assignment educational institutions also offer graduate courses in military science. At the same time, 112 regular institutions of higher learning in China undertake the task of training defense students, thus gradually increasing the number of military officers trained in civilian educational institutions.
The PLA endeavors to improve the overall performance of military educational institutions through focused and coordinated development. It has launched a project for establishing key military colleges and schools in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period. It continues to focus efforts on building a number of institutions and research centers for disciplines and specialties that are important in building an informationized military and winning informationized wars. A new round of reform in teaching is underway to improve the training target models for officers in different fields and at different levels, and to develop new programs and curricula for the training of military personnel. The PLA is also improving the information network for military training, and has built more virtual laboratories, digital libraries and digital campuses to provide distance learning and online teaching and training. In graduate education, the focus is shifted from academic-oriented to practice-oriented, from emphasis on quantity to emphasis on quality, and from a relatively closed-door approach to a more open and diversified approach. The PLA now has 41 educational institutions authorized to award doctor's degrees and 60 to award master's degrees.
Management System of Military Cadres
In 2005, the PLA began to reform the evaluation, selection and appointment system for military cadres, and to institute a system to evaluate commanding officers. It conducts both evaluation and examination in selecting leading officers at the level of deputy regimental commanders for combat troops. It has improved the regulations on reserve cadres, and works to establish a long-term mechanism to select and train outstanding young cadres. In March 2006, with the approval of the CMC, the four general headquarters/departments jointly promulgated the Provisions of the PLA on Rewarding Technical Experts, which gives awards and allowances to military technical experts.
In June 2005, the State Council and the CMC promulgated the Regulations of the PLA on Contract Civilians, deciding to introduce a system of employing contract civilians to fill some support posts in the military, so that active-duty officers, who are limited in number, mainly take up command and combat posts. The regulations contain specific provisions on the nature and status of contract civilians, the procedures of their employment, and the coordination of the civil and military authorities' relevant policies. In 2006, the PLA started the employment of contract civilians.
Officers and non-commissioned officers transferred to civilian work are resettled in one of the following two ways: state-planned job assignment, and finding jobs by themselves. The State Council has an office for overseeing the nationwide resettlement of such officers. The provinces (autonomous regions or municipalities directly under the central government) have corresponding offices for resettling such officers in their respective administrative areas. The General Political Department is in charge of PLA-wide transfer of officers and non-commissioned officers to civilian work, and Party committees and political organs at and above the regiment level are responsible for transferring officers to civilian work in their own units. The provincial military commands (garrison commands at the same level) are responsible for turning over PLA officers and non-commissioned officers transferred to civilian work in their respective provinces, autonomous regions or municipalities directly under the central government. In 2005, the state and the PLA began to deepen the reform and adjustment of the policies on resettling officers and non-commissioned officers transferred to civilian work.
Supporting the Government and Loving the People
The PLA attaches great importance to mass work, taking supporting the government and loving the people as its major thrust. The political organs of the four general headquarters/departments and the military area commands, the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force all have offices for mass work. The political organs of corps, divisions (brigades) and regiments also have special officers in charge of such work. These offices and officers are responsible for maintaining contacts and coordination with governments at all levels. Education in supporting the government and loving the people is conducted PLA-wide. The PLA participates in national economic development, emergency rescue and disaster relief, and public welfare activities.
In the past two years, the engineering troops of the Army, Navy and Air Force have taken part in more than 430 key construction projects for transportation, hydropower, communication and energy infrastructure. The PLA has assisted in building new socialist villages in the countryside, and provided regular assistance to poor farmers in more than 19,000 villages. It has helped build over 48,000 small public projects such as water-saving irrigation projects, drinking water projects for both people and livestock, roads, and hydropower projects, bringing immediate benefits to nearly 800,000 people. In addition, it has helped build or enlarge 211 primary and secondary schools, enabling 142,000 school dropouts to return to class. PLA troops stationed in China's western region have taken part in such ecological engineering projects as the construction of shelterbelts and the improvement of small drainage areas. They have planted 210 million trees and sown grass on more than 13 million sq m of land. PLA hospitals have established regular assistance relations with more than 400 county or township hospitals in the western region. They have helped train key members of the medical staff, made rounds of visits offering free medical consultation and treatment, and donated medical equipment and medicine. The PLA and PAPF have dispatched over 340,000 troops to take part in more than 2,800 emergency rescue and disaster-relief operations, involving more than 40,000 vehicles, flown more than 2,000 sorties (including the use of helicopters), evacuated over 3.4 million people and prevented economic losses of several billion yuan. At the end of 2006, the PLA donated 230 million yuan and over 930,000 cotton-padded clothes and quilts to disaster- and poverty-stricken areas.
In June 2005, the State Council and the CMC promulgated the Regulations on Participation of the PLA in Emergency Rescue and Disaster Relief, prescribing the PLA's main tasks, coordination with local people's governments, limits of authority and procedures for employing troops, joint command with local authorities, preparations and readiness, financial and material support, etc., for such operations.
V. People's Armed Police Force
The People's Armed Police Force (PAPF) is charged with the fundamental task of safeguarding national security, maintaining social stability and ensuring that the people live and work in peace and contentment. It strives to make itself a powerful, disciplined and politically reliable force.
Structure and Organization
As a component of China's armed forces and subordinate to the State Council, the PAPF is under the dual leadership of the State Council and the CMC. The State Council exercises leadership over the PAPF through relevant functional departments, assigns routine tasks to it, decides its size and number of organizations, and is responsible for its command, operations, and financial and material support. The PAPF has an independent budgetary status in the financial expenditure of the state. The CMC is responsible for the PAPF's organizational structure, management of officers, command, training and political work. It exercises leadership over the PAPF through the four general headquarters/departments. In terms of conducting public security operations and relevant capability building, the PAPF General Headquarters is under the leadership and command of the Ministry of Public Security, and the PAPF units at and below the contingent level are under the leadership and command of the public security organs at the same level. The PAPF has a total force of 660,000.
The PAPF consists mainly of the internal security force and forces guarding gold mines, forests, water and electricity supply, and communications. The border security, firefighting and security guard forces are also components of the PAPF. The PAPF General Headquarters is the leading and commanding organ that directs and administers the internal security force and forces guarding gold mine, forest, water and electricity, and communications, etc., and provides guidance to other forces subordinate to the PAPF. Under it are the headquarters, political department and logistics department. The PAPF has one commander-in-chief, one first political commissar (assumed concurrently by the Minister of Public Security), one political commissar, and several deputy commanders-in-chief and deputy political commissars. The PAPF internal security force is composed of contingents at the level of the province (autonomous region or municipality directly under the central government) and armed police divisions. Contingents, detachments and squadrons are instituted at the province, prefecture, and county levels, respectively. The armed police divisions have regiments, battalions and companies in battle order, which are stationed in a number of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government. The forces guarding gold mines, forests, water and electricity supply, and communications have their own headquarters, which function as their leading and commanding organs. The PAPF General Headquarters has an educational institution directly under it. The contingent headquarters and the headquarters of the forces guarding gold mines, forests, water and electricity supply, and communications have elementary command colleges under them.
Basic Tasks
In peacetime, the PAPF is tasked to perform guard duties, handle emergencies, combat terrorism, and participate in and support national economic development. In wartime, it assists the PLA in defensive operations.
Every day, more than 260,000 PAPF servicemen are on guard duty. Through the combined use of manpower, facilities and technologies, the PAPF has effectively enhanced the efficiency of guard duties and security in recent years. The PAPF annually handles an average of over 100 cases of attempted attacks against guarded targets and escape attempts by detained suspects and imprisoned criminals, organizes thousands of important temporary duties, and ensures the security of important international and national conferences and large-scale events, in cooperation with the government departments concerned. Adhering to the guidelines and principles for handling emergencies, and using proper methods and tactics, the PAPF effectively safeguards the fundamental interests of the people, social stability and the dignity of the law. The PAPF anti-terrorism units closely follow the state's anti-terrorism guidelines and principles, and enhance their combat-readiness training. They have been involved in the successful handling of cases of bombing attempts and kidnapping incidents. The various units of the PAPF take an active part in efforts to keep local order, and assist the public security departments in catching and arresting criminal suspects and cracking down on organized criminal gangs.
The PAPF gold mine force has completed 38 geological prospecting projects in a dozen provinces and autonomous regions, and found some rich gold deposits. In the last two years, the PAPF forest force has put out 552 forest or prairie fires, protecting valuable natural resources. The PAPF water and electricity force has taken part in the construction of 21 key national projects, including the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, the West-East Natural Gas Transmission Project, the South-North Water Diversion Project, and major hydropower projects. The PAPF communications force is responsible for the maintenance of the Xinjiang-Tibet Highway and the Sichuan-Tibet Highway, and has undertaken the construction of national high-grade highways, extra-long tunnels and bridges. Those projects built by the PAPF communications force are all up to standards. In the past two years, 224,000 PAPF troops have participated in 2,320 emergency rescue and disaster relief operations, and rescued and evacuated 250,000 people in disaster-stricken areas.
Force Building
The PAPF is working to strengthen itself through science and technology. It is enhancing staff competence, and conducting strict management so that its personnel can fully perform their duties. Using the national information infrastructure, the PAPF has established a preliminary system of three-level integrated information networks, linking general headquarters with the grass-roots squadrons. It has made progress in real-time command and control, management of duties through visual means, networked education and training, and office automation. The PAPF possesses a basically complete range of equipment through R&D and procurement of urgently needed weaponry and equipment. It has set up and improved a distinctive mechanism for the selection, training and employment of officers and NCOs. In particular, priority is given to the training of inter-disciplinary personnel. The PAPF conducts mission-oriented training on a priority basis to better perform guard duties, manage emergencies and combat terrorism. It participated in China's "Great Wall-2003" and "Great Wall II" anti-terrorism exercises, and the SCO's "Joint-2003" exercise, and sponsored the "Guard-04" and "Guard-06" exercises to deal with large-scale emergencies. The PAPF runs its forces strictly and pursuant to the law. It stresses that leaders make decisions, administrative organs conduct management, and officers and men perform their duties strictly in accordance with the law. As a result, its overall performance has been greatly boosted.
The PAPF is steadily improving its logistical support system based on self-support and supplemented by social and PLA support to raise the efficiency of integrated support. It runs a crisis response support system covering the three echelons of the general headquarters, contingents (divisions) and detachments (regiments), to better respond to emergencies, and unexpected and complex situations. It promotes standardized and institutional logistical management by exploitation of IT and uniformly standardizes its facility configurations, work procedures, operating mechanisms and management requirements. The PAPF is pursuing reforms in housing, procurement of bulk materials and project procurement, medical care, and outsources food, barracks and bedding and clothing services.
In recent years, the PAPF has conducted friendly exchanges with the armed police forces, military police, internal security forces, public security forces and other similar forces of more than 30 countries to draw on each other's practices and cooperate in conducting anti-terrorism training. Its medical personnel, as part of Chinese rescue teams, have participated in disaster-relief missions in the aftermath of the earthquakes in Iran, Pakistan and Indonesia, and the tsunami in the Indian Ocean.
VI. National Defense Mobilization and Reserve Force
China, responding to new developments in modern warfare and the needs of national security, is reinforcing national defense mobilization and reserve force building to enhance its capabilities of rapid mobilization, sustained support, comprehensive protection and swift shift from a peacetime to wartime footing.
Mobilization of the Armed Forces
China's mobilization of the armed forces includes the mobilization of manpower, weaponry and equipment, as well as logistical materials. The main tasks of the PLA's mobilization are as follows: to formulate plans for wartime troop mobilization and support according to operational plans, carry out pre-regimentation of reservists into active units and organization of reserve units, and expand and form units according to wartime structure and organization upon the state's issuance of a mobilization order. The main tasks of the PAPF's mobilization are to formulate mobilization and support plans based on the PAPF's possible wartime tasks, carry out pre-regimentation of reservists and adjustment, expansion and reorganization of units, and adjust the organizational system or form or expand units according to designated tasks after the state issues a mobilization order. The main tasks of the militia's mobilization are to call up militiamen, adjust and reinforce organizations, issue weapons and equipment, carry out pre-war training, and provide support in accordance with the needs of wartime manpower mobilization and plans for participating in warfare and supporting the front.
Acting on the directives of the State Council and the CMC, the General Staff Headquarters organizes and conducts mobilization of the armed forces with the assistance of the General Political Department, General Logistics Department and General Armaments Department as well as the relevant government departments. The Navy, Air Force, and Second Artillery Force are responsible for the mobilization of their respective forces. The military area commands, provincial military commands and local Party committees and governments at different levels are responsible for the mobilization of reserve forces within their respective jurisdictions.
By maintaining a lean standing army, improving the reserve service system, setting up reserve units, designating manpower replenishment areas, pre-positioning equipment and supplies, and organizing civil-military mobilization rehearsals, China has ensured the smooth mobilization of the armed forces, enabling the latter to deter or defuse security crises with even a downsized standing force. In recent years, China has accelerated the adjustment and reform of the organization and structure of the militia and the reserve forces and increased the number of reservists with high-tech backgrounds, and strengthened the reserve forces of the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force. As a result, the level of the general quality of the backup forces of national defense has been raised notably.
Mobilization of the National Economy
The basic policies for the mobilization of the national economy are:
· To boost economic mobilization based on China's development strategy and its economic strength, and incorporate the development of the defense economy into that of the national ec onomy;
· To make economic mobilization a bridge between China's economic development and available national defense capacities, and strike a balance between military and civilian needs and between peacetime and wartime needs in economic restructuring, to keep the national defense economy at a proper level in peacetime;
· To speed up the development and application of new and high technologies and dual-purpose technologies, and give priority to the mobilization of high-tech products and the reserves of high technology, to raise the overall scientific and technological level of economic mobilization;
· To build an organizational structure, mechanism and legal system of economic mobilization in keeping with the socialist market economy for dealing with both wars and emergencies in accordance with the assigned functions of economic mobilization, to serve economic development in peacetime and respond rapidly in cases of emergency or war; and
· To pursue the principle of self-defense by the whole nation and improve the capacity of economic mobilization to meet the needs of defensive operations under conditions of informationization.
The primary objective is to establish a complete economic mobilization system with the dual functions of responding to both wars and emergencies, and to set up an economic mobilization base that is an integral part of China's economy to meet the economic needs of local wars and unexpected incidents.
With the rapid growth of China's economy, the capacity of its economic mobilization has been steadily raised. In building information and communications systems, highways, railways, bridges, tunnels, airports, ports, docks and major urban infrastructures, China pays close attention to the requirements of national defense, and ensures that peacetime needs and wartime needs are properly balanced. In working to set up a mechanism of economic mobilization for responding to both wars and emergencies, China has set up a system of plans for economic mobilization that takes both peacetime and wartime needs into consideration. It has established economic mobilization centers in the machine-building, weaponry, aviation, space, shipbuilding and chemical industries, and has optimized the mobilization structure and layout. It has basically completed a survey on the potential of economic mobilization and set up an information system for economic mobilization management by the state and a number of provinces and municipalities directly under the central government. As a component of the national emergency response force, economic mobilization offices at different levels have established a mechanism for contacts between economic mobilization offices and emergency reaction management offices to provide support for handling public emergencies and ensure public security.
Civil Air Defense
Civil air defense (CAD), air defense of critical areas and field air defense constitute China's homeland defense structure. The tasks of the CAD in the new era are to protect the people and their property and China's economic development in wartime, and carry out disaster prevention and relief and handle public unexpected incidents in peacetime. The CAD expenses are born by the state and the public. The state has promulgated the Civil Air Defense Law, and the people's governments at various levels have formulated and improved corresponding CAD rules and regulations. CAD work is incorporated into plans for economic and social development by the people's governments at and above the county level.
China's CAD capabilities in preparations against war, integrated urban protection and public unexpected incident response have been greatly enhanced in recent years. Interconnected and interoperable communications networks for command and warning at the provincial, city and county levels have been basically established, and urban air defense early-warning networks have been improved. Over 85 percent of areas in major cities are covered by air-defense sirens. Most of the key CAD cities have CAD command posts. All large and medium-sized cities have protection and rescue contingents for emergency rescue, rush repair, medical aid, fire fighting, maintenance of order, chemical defense, epidemic prevention, communications and transportation. Short-term and full-time training courses are conducted, and emergency rescue drills for handling disasters are organized to help the public acquire CAD knowledge and skills. CAD courses are included in school teaching programs and curricula. Volunteer CAD teams have been formed in some factories, mines, enterprises and communities.
Militia Force Building
China's militia is under the unified direction of the State Council and the CMC, and the dual leadership of local Party committees and governments as well as the military commands. The concept of people's war, and the principle of combining regular work with military training and combining peacetime needs with wartime needs are observed in the building of the militia.
The focus of the militia work is being shifted from rural areas to cities and areas along communication lines. The setting up of militia forces has expanded from state-owned enterprises to private enterprises and from traditional industries to high-tech industries. Specialized technical units rather than infantry are becoming the backbone of the militia. The proportion of antiaircraft artillery, ground artillery, missile, communications, engineering, anti-chemical, reconnaissance, information and other specialized technical units in the overall militia force is being raised. The building of militia units of the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force is being strengthened. A new organizational structure of the militia has taken shape, with specialized technical units and units with corresponding specialties serving as the main body, and air defense units, units of the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force, and emergency response units playing a leading role.
The state has increased investment in militia weaponry and equipment, with priority given to equipment for air defense, emergency response and maintenance of stability. The state has phased out a number of out-dated weapons. Militia training reform has been deepened; a four-level system for organizing training is practiced, the four levels being provincial military commands, prefectural military commands, people's armed forces departments of counties (county-level cities or municipal districts) and basic-level people's armed forces departments. Through interlinked training as well as joint training and exercises with active PLA units, the militia has boosted its capabilities of conducting rapid mobilization and carrying out its specialized tasks.
Reserve Force Building
As a component of the PLA, the reserve force receives priority in the building of the defense reserve. The reserve force conducts peacetime training as provided for in relevant regulations, assists in maintaining order when necessary pursuant to the law, and activates its units in wartime in observance of the state's mobilization order.
In recent years, while keeping its overall size unchanged, the reserve force has reduced the number of Army reserve units, while increasing the numbers of reserve units of the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force, the proportion of specialized technical reserve units and the number of logistical and equipment support reserve units, thus accomplishing the task of forming new reserve units of the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force in the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. Most of the PLA's reserve divisions, brigades and regiments have training bases, armament depots, necessary office space and living quarters, and optical-fiber cable communication. With military training as the primary task, the PLA reserve units carry out training strictly pursuant to regulations, ensuring the accomplishment of all training tasks. The focus of training is being shifted from individuals and units to command posts, key technicians and higher levels of training such as joint and live-fire exercises.
VII. Border and Coastal Defense
Adhering to the principles of conducting overall planning, placing equal emphasis on land and sea, giving priority to defense, and integrating defense and administration, China is endeavoring to make its border and coastal defense unified, effective, solid and informationized.
Border and Coastal Defense System
China's border and coastal defense is under the unified leadership of the State Council and the CMC, and practices an administration system of sharing responsibilities between the military and the local authorities. The State Commission of Border and Coastal Defense, composed of the relevant departments of the State Council and the PLA, and under the dual leadership of the State Council and the CMC, guides and coordinates China's border and coastal defense. All military area commands, as well as border and coastal provinces, prefectures and counties have commissions to guide and coordinate border and coastal defense within their respective jurisdictions.
The PLA is the main force for defending China's borders and coasts. The PLA border defense force has a three-level structure, namely, regiment, battalion and company. The PLA coastal defense force has a five-level structure, namely, division, brigade, regiment, battalion and company. In 2003, the PLA border defense force took over the defense of the China-DPRK border and the Yunnan section of the China-Myanmar border from the border public security force, thus enabling the state to integrate land border defense and administration. The border public security force is tasked with safeguarding security and maintaining social order in border and coastal areas. Within the border public security force there are contingents in provinces (autonomous regions or municipalities directly under the central government), detachments, groups, border police substations and frontier inspection stations in border and coastal areas, border inspection stations in open ports, and marine police force in coastal waters. Since China launched its reform and opening-up program, the state has consolidated border and coastal law-enforcement functions in organizations responsible for public security, customs, inspection and quarantine, maritime surveillance, fisheries administration, marine affairs and environmental protection. The state has also established and reinforced the border public security force, as well as border and coastal law-enforcement contingents for marine affairs, anti-smuggling, fisheries administration and maritime surveillance.
Building Border and Coastal Defense
China has promulgated the Law on National Defense, the Law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone, the Law on the Exclusive Economic Zone and the Continental Shelf and other relevant laws and regulations, and updated its border and coastal defense policies and regulations pursuant to international laws and practices, to manage its border and sea areas in conformity with the law. China endeavors to strengthen its border and coastal defense, administration and control, and build a modern border and coastal defense force featuring joint military-police-civilian efforts in defense and administration. Over the past decade and more, the state has invested more than RMB 2 billion in construction of border defense infrastructure, building over 20,000 km of patrol roads, over 6,000 km of barbed-wire fences and installing some 600 sets of monitoring equipment. Construction of coastal defense infrastructure, including duty piers, monitoring stations and centers and auxiliary facilities has been underway since 2004.
China pursues a good-neighborliness policy, and works to enhance friendship and partnership with its neighbors. It calls for settling boundary and maritime demarcation issues with countries concerned in a fair and equitable manner, and through consultations on the basis of equality. China has signed land border treaties or agreements with Myanmar and 11 other neighboring countries, thus resolving boundary issues left from history with these countries; it is currently negotiating with India and Bhutan to settle boundary issues with those two countries respectively. Since 1996, China has set up bilateral consultation mechanisms on the law of the sea with the Republic of Korea and Japan, to exchange views on maritime demarcation and cooperation. In 2004, the Agreement Between China and Vietnam on the Demarcation of the Beibu Gulf officially entered into force.
China actively promotes border and coastal defense cooperation with its neighbors, strengthens border and coastal defense contacts in different fields and at various levels, and handles in an appropriate manner border- and coastal-defense-related issues with countries concerned. In 2005, the Agreement on Joint Patrols by the Navies of China and Vietnam in the Beibu Gulf was signed, and China respectively signed with the Philippines and Indonesia the Memorandum of Understanding on Maritime Affairs Cooperation and the Memorandum of Understanding on Maritime Cooperation. In July 2006, China and India reopened the border trade route at Nathu La Pass, which links China's Tibet with Sikkim, India. China's border and coastal defense forces, acting strictly in accordance with international law and the agreements and understandings signed by China with its neighbors, have established and improved mechanisms for talks and meetings with their counterparts in the neighboring countries, and conduct law enforcement and anti-terrorism cooperation to jointly maintain peace and stability in border areas and related sea areas.
Ensuring the Stability of Border Areas
Stability and development of border areas are the foundation for border and coastal defense. The Chinese government attaches great importance to work related to ethnic minorities and economic development in border areas; it has formulated a series of policies and adopted many strategic measures in this regard. In the early days of New China, close to one million PLA officers and men were collectively transferred to civilian work in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Tibet and Inner Mongolia autonomous regions, and Heilongjiang and Yunnan provinces. They were organized into production and construction corps and state farms, and made great contributions to the economic development of the border areas and the maintenance of border stability in those areas. In the 1950s and 1960s, the state moved a large number of industrial enterprises and skilled workers from inland and coastal areas to border areas, and set up a fairly complete industrial system and communications and transportation network there. Since the reform and opening-up policy was initiated in the late 1970s, the state has set up 253 open ports and implemented the strategy for developing the western region and revitalizing old industrial bases including Northeast China. It pursues the policy of developing border areas and making border inhabitants prosperous, and consolidating defense through building close ties with the local people. It has taken steps, including encouraging inland provinces to provide assistance to their border counterparts, to accelerate the economic development there. This has laid a solid foundation for strengthening border and coastal defense.
The PLA border defense force and the border public security force are resolute in maintaining social stability in border areas and unity among ethnic groups, and take an active part in the economic development of border areas. They take measures to crack down hard on cross-border crimes, such as weapon smuggling, drug trafficking, illegal border crossing and human trafficking, and on separatist, violent and terrorist activities. They strictly implement the ethnic and religious policies of the state, respect the customs and lifestyle of ethnic minorities, and strengthen PLA unity with the government and the people, together with unity among ethnic groups, thus contributing to maintaining political stability and promoting social development and progress in border areas.
VIII. Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense
China's defense-related science, technology and industry focuses on consolidating its foundation, making independent innovation, and speeding up the implementation of the strategy of transition and upgrading, so as to ensure the production and supply of military equipment and promote the development of national economy.
Improving the industrial structure, enhancing its capabilities of developing and producing new and high-tech weaponry and equipment. Defense-related science, technology and industry endeavors to accelerate structural adjustment in research and production, adopt advanced production modes, promote specialized production and upgrade processing technologies. Priority is given to R&D of new and high-tech weaponry and equipment, and endeavors to achieve breakthroughs in a number of key technologies and leapfrogging technological progress, thus speeding up weaponry and equipment modernization. Defense-related science, technology and industry is enhancing its core capabilities in R&D and production of the overall systems and key subsystems of major projects, and introducing more competition into the manufacturing and processing of general and supporting equipment, gradually establishing an all-round outsourcing system of cooperation for developing and producing weaponry and equipment. Priority is given to upgrading technologies and products in the nuclear, space, aviation, shipbuilding, weaponry, electronics and other defense-related industries, so as to form a cluster of high-tech industries to drive the growth of China's economy. In 2005, the output value, added value and gross revenue of the entire spectrum of defense-related science, technology and industry increased by 24.3 percent, 20.7 percent and 21.6 percent, respectively, over the previous year.
The defense manufacturing industries have been further informationized. The Tenth Five-Year Plan period saw the rapid development of digitalized manufacturing technology and wide application of computer-aided design, manufacturing and system-integrated manufacturing technologies in China's defense industries. The capabilities of master design and development, as well as of final assembly and integration, and the technological level of precision and super-precision processing were significantly raised. The means and methods of systems integration, experimentation and simulation, as well as of inspection and testing were upgraded.
The defense industry enterprises have stepped up restructuring and reform, and are exploring approaches for diversifying their ownership structure and steadily transforming themselves into share-holding enterprises. The reform of defense-related research institutes is being speeded up and greater support was given to research institutions engaged in strategic research, basic research and research in the public interest.
Strengthening capabilities of independent innovation. Efforts are being made to improve the innovative system of development and production of weaponry and equipment, and the innovative system of technology for high-tech industries combining military and civilian needs. The former takes master design, final assembly and manufacturing, and experimentation and verification as leading factors, and is supported by research and manufacturing of core systems and specialized equipment, and completed by an outsourcing system. The latter combines production, education and research, takes enterprises as the main body and research institutions as the mainstay, and is market-orientated. Priority is given to enhancing basic research, key technology research and frontier technology research. As a result, a number of state-of-the-art scientific and technological achievements that enjoy independent intellectual property rights have been made. Patent applications have increased rapidly -- at an average annual rate of over 40 percent. Major scientific and technological projects, such as manned space flights and the Lunar Probe Project, are being carried out to spur the leapfrogging development of high-tech enterprises combining military and civilian needs and to bring about overall improvements in defense-related science and technology. Platforms for developing weaponry systems, lab systems for defense-related science and technology, and research and application centers for advanced industrial technologies are being built. As a result, a fairly mature scientific and technological infrastructure is taking shape, which is well-configured, multi-functional, efficient and based on close cooperation between the military and civilian sectors. In addition, higher education and vocational education are being boosted for defense-related science, technology and industry. Three professionally specialized contingents are being constructed, namely, a contingent of business managers, a contingent of professionals and specialists and a contingent of skilled workers. Efforts are being made to establish an innovative mechanism to absorb and train high-caliber people for defense-related science, technology and industry.
On the premise of strictly honoring its international commitments, China encourages and supports participation in international cooperation and competition in civilian-military industries.
IX. Defense Expenditure
Pursuant to the National Defense Law and the Budget Law, and guided by the principle of coordinated development of national defense and the economy, the Chinese government decides on the size and use of defense expenditure in an appropriate way to meet the demands of national defense in keeping with China's economic development.
China's defense expenditure mainly comprises expenses for personnel, training and maintenance, and equipment. Personnel expenses mainly cover salaries, insurance, food, clothing, and welfare benefits for officers, non-commissioned officers and enlisted men as well as for civilian employees. Training and maintenance expenses cover troop training, institutional education, construction and maintenance of installations and facilities, and other expenses on routine consumables. The equipment expenses mainly cover research on, experimentation with, and procurement, maintenance, transportation and storage of weaponry and equipment. The defense expenditure covers not only the active forces, but also the militia and reserve forces. Also covered by the defense expenditure are costs to support part of the retired officers, education of servicemen's children and the national economic development, as well as other social expenses.
Since the early 1990s, to safeguard its sovereignty, security and unity, and to keep pace with the global revolution in military affairs, China has gradually increased its defense expenditure on the basis of its economic development. This increase, however, is compensatory in nature, and is designed to enhance the originally weak defense foundation. It is a moderate increase in step with China's national economic development. In the 1980s, China began to shift the focus of its work to economic development. At that time, it was decided that national defense should be both subordinated to and serve the country's overall economic development. As a result, national defense received a low input, and was in a state of self-preservation. From 1979 to 1989, the average annual increase of defense expenditure was 1.23 percent. However, the defense expenditure actually registered an average annual decrease of 5.83 percent, given the 7.49 percent average annual increase of the consumer price index in the same period. From 1990 to 2005, the average annual increase in defense expenditure was 15.36 percent. As the average annual increase of the consumer price index during the same period was 5.22 percent, the actual average increase in defense expenditure was 9.64 percent.
Chart 1: Comparison Between the Growth Rate of China's Defense Expenditure and the National Residential Consumer Price Index (1989-2005)
China's GDP in 2004 and 2005 was RMB15,987.8 billion and RMB18,308.5 billion, respectively, with a growth rate of 10.1 percent in 2004 and of 10.2 percent in 2005. The state financial expenditure was RMB2,848.689 billion in 2004 and RMB3,393.028 billion in 2005, up 15.57 percent and 19.11 percent respectively over the previous year. China's defense expenditure in 2004 and 2005 was RMB220.001 billion and RMB247.496 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 15.31 percent and 12.50 percent. In the past two years, the share of China's annual defense expenditure in its GDP and in the state financial expenditure in the same period has decreased, being 1.40 percent and 7.74 percent respectively in 2003, 1.38 percent and 7.72 percent in 2004, and 1.35 percent and 7.29 percent in 2005. Its defense budget for 2006 is RMB283.829 billion.
Chart 2: Share of China's Annual Defense Expenditure in the State Financial Expenditure (1994-2005) (%)
Chart 3: Composition of China's Defense Expenditure in 2005 (unit: RMB billion)
The increased part of China's defense expenditure is primarily used for the following purposes: (1) Increasing salaries and allowances of military personnel and improving their living conditions. Along with the growth of China's economy and the steady improvement of the people's life, the salaries and allowances of military personnel and the pensions of retired officers are increased accordingly. The insurance, medical, housing and other benefits are also increased. Subsidies are being increased, too, to compensate for regional and post differences, and the living conditions of the troops stationed in hardship areas are being improved. (2) Increasing investment in weaponry and equipment and infrastructure. The PLA is accelerating its informationization drive, increasing the expenses on procurement and maintenance of weaponry and equipment, upgrading the military infrastructure, and increasing input for improving the facilities for border and coastal defense troops. (3) Supporting the training of military personnel. The PLA is increasing input into education and training through both military educational institutions and regular institutions of higher learning. It is also increasing subsidies for professionals with outstanding performance and incentives for experts, and increasing the budget for the employment of contract civilians. (4) Compensating for price rise. As the prices of oil, building materials and staple and non-staple foodstuffs rise, the PLA accordingly increases the expenses on military petroleum, oils and lubricants and defense engineering, and raises the boarding subsidies. (5) Increasing expenses for international cooperation in non-traditional security fields.
Both the total amount and per-serviceman share of China's defense expenditure is low compared with those of some other countries, particularly major powers. In 2005, China's defense expenditure equaled 6.19 percent of that of the United States, 52.95 percent of that of the United Kingdom, 71.45 percent of that of France and 67.52 percent of that of Japan. China's defense expenses per serviceman averaged RMB107,607, amounting to 3.74 percent of that of the United States and 7.07 percent of that of Japan.
China practices a strict system of financial appropriation of defense funds . The PLA's budgeting is based on the defense development strategy, military building objectives and annual military tasks set by the state. Budgeting units at each level carry out studies to decide on their budget items, make calculations of their requests for funds and then report to the next-higher authorities. The General Logistics Department, working with the relevant departments of other general headquarters/departments, analyzes, calculates and verifies the annual budget requests submitted by all the military area commands, the Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force, and draws up the defense budget. After being reviewed and approved by the CMC, the defense budget is submitted to the Ministry of Finance. The latter, on the basis of medium- and long-term fiscal plans and the estimated revenue of the year, puts forward a plan for military expenditure appropriations after consultation with the General Logistics Department, and then incorporates it into the annual financial budget draft of the central government. Upon approval by the State Council, the annual financial budget is submitted to the Budget Work Committee of the NPC Standing Committee and the Finance and Economic Committee of the NPC for review before it is submitted to the NPC for review. After the budget of the central government is approved by the NPC, the Ministry of Finance informs in writing the General Logistics Department of the approved defense budget. The defense budget is then implemented down to troops at different levels through prescribed procedures.
Financial departments are instituted at the General Logistics Department, military area commands, Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery Force, and units at the levels of corps, division (brigade) and regiment. These departments are responsible for the appropriation, management and supervision of the defense funds. The auditing offices of the state and the PLA conduct strict supervision of the defense budget.
Chart 4: Comparison of Defense Expenditures of Major Countries in 2005 (unit: US$ billion)
Chart 5: Comparison of Percentages of Defense Expenditures in GDP of Major Countries in 2005
Chart 6: Comparison of Per Serviceman Share of Defense Expenditure of Major Countries in 2005 (unit: US$1,000)
Source of the figures: Defense reports, budget reports or other government reports released by these countries.
Note: One pound is equivalent to 1.7439 US dollars.
One Euro is equivalent to 1.3029 US dollars.
One US dollar is equivalent to 28.5470 Russian rubles.
One US dollar is equivalent to 106.9998 Japanese yen.
One US dollar is equivalent to RMB8.0759 yuan.
X. International Security Cooperation
China pursues a new security concept featuring mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination, and adheres to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. It works to promote good-neighborliness, mutual benefit and win-win, and endeavors to advance international security cooperation and strengthen military relations with other countries.
Regional Security Cooperation
Since its founding five years ago, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has steadily deepened and expanded cooperation in security, economic and cultural areas in practical terms. A decision-making mechanism has taken shape, with the Council of Heads of State and the Council of Heads of Government being its core. Two permanent bodies, namely, the Secretariat and the Regional Anti-terrorism Structure, have also been established. A number of documents on cooperation in fighting terrorism, separatism, extremism and drug trafficking have been adopted. In April 2005, the SCO, ASEAN and the Commonwealth of Independent States signed a memorandum of understanding on conducting cooperation in counter-terrorism. In July, the Concept of Cooperation between SCO Members on Combating Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism was adopted at the SCO Astana Summit. In April 2006, a meeting of SCO defense ministers was held in Beijing, and the Sixth SCO Summit was held in Shanghai in June. Ten documents, including the Declaration on the Fifth Anniversary of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, were signed during the Summit.
China attaches great importance to the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). At the 13th ARF Ministerial Meeting in July 2006, China called for enhancing mutual trust, respecting diversity and properly handling the ARF's relations with other mechanisms. In the past two years, China has, within the ARF framework, hosted the Seminar on Enhancing Cooperation in the Field of Non-traditional Security Issues, sponsored the ARF Seminar on Non-proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction with the United States and Singapore, held the Fifth and Sixth ARF Inter-sessional Meetings on Disaster Relief with Indonesia, and held the Fourth ARF Inter-sessional Meeting on Counter-terrorism and Transnational Crime with Brunei.
China's cooperation in the non-traditional security area with ASEAN and within the framework of ASEAN and China, Japan and the Republic of Korea has achieved significant progress. In January 2005, China proposed a series of initiatives on disaster prevention and reduction at the Special ASEAN Leaders' Meeting on the Aftermath of Earthquake and Tsunamis. In August, China hosted the Workshop on Policing Exchanges and Cooperation among the Capital Police Agencies of ASEAN, China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, during which the Beijing Declaration on Policing Exchanges and Cooperation among the Capital Police Agencies of ASEAN, China, Japan and the Republic of Korea was signed. In October, China hosted the Second International Congress of ASEAN and China on Cooperative Operations in Response to Dangerous Drugs. The Beijing Declaration and other documents were adopted. In November, China attended the Second ASEAN and China, Japan and the Republic of Korea Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime and the First China-ASEAN Informal Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime.
Honoring Commitment to International Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
China has made sound preparations for implementing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). To this end, a preparatory office has been established at the PLA General Armaments Department. With the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Health, the State Environmental Protection Administration, the China Earthquake Administration and other government departments, this office is responsible for setting up 11 monitoring stations in China as part of the international monitoring system, and formulating their administrative regulations and detailed rules for the implementation of the CTBT. Two primary seismological monitoring stations have been set up in Hailar and Lanzhou, respectively, and three radionuclide stations have been set up in Beijing, Guangzhou and Lanzhou, respectively. The surveying of the two sites for two infrasound stations in Beijing and Kunming has been completed, and construction is scheduled to start soon. The China National Data Center and the Beijing Radionuclide Laboratory have been built, and are now in trial operation.
China supports multilateral efforts aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of the Biological Weapons Convention. It has attended the review conferences, annual meetings of State Parties and meetings of the Ad Hoc Group of Governmental Experts in an active and responsible manner. China has also submitted in a timely fashion to the United Nations declarations regarding confidence-building measures under the Convention.
China honors in good faith its obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention. It has promptly and completely submitted all the annual declarations, subsequent declarations regarding newly discovered chemical weapons abandoned by Japan in China and the annual national programs related to protective purposes. It has also received more than 100 on-site inspections by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. The PLA is working, in strict compliance with the Convention, to ensure the smooth management and operation of the "single small-scale facility" and the "10kg Schedule I Chemical Synthesis Laboratory." China and Japan have held 42 rounds of bilateral consultations to accelerate the destruction of the chemical weapons abandoned by Japan in China. Since 2005, China has assisted Japan in 24 on-site verifications, and recovered over 3,100 chemical weapons abandoned by Japan. At the request of Japan, China has taken into temporary custody the recovered Japanese-abandoned chemical weapons confirmed by Japan. These chemical weapons will be destroyed by Japan in the future.
China fully honors its obligations under the amended Landmine Protocol to the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons. The PLA keeps its troops fully informed of China's obligations, and has implemented the technical standards and limitations specified in the Protocol. It has carried out a general check of all the anti-personnel landmines that do not meet the standards of the Protocol, and has destroyed several hundred thousand old landmines in a planned way. China has made technical modifications to usable anti-infantry landmines in inventory to make them conform to the technical standards of the Protocol. China continues to take an active part in international demining operations. In the period September-December 2005, Chinese military demining experts worked in Thailand to train demining personnel and give on-site instructions. China also provided Thailand with demining equipment. In the period September-December 2006, China ran demining training courses for Lebanon and Jordan in Nanjing, and provided the two countries with demining equipment. China has taken part in a constructive way in the discussions on anti-vehicle landmines by the Group of Governmental Experts of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, and is making preparations for ratifying the Protocol on Explosive Remnants of War.
China is firmly opposed to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. It supports the United Nations in playing its due role in non-proliferation. China is a party to all international treaties on non-proliferation and related international organizations. It has established a complete legal regime for controlling the export of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, missiles and other related sensitive items and technologies, and all defense items. China follows strict procedures in approving exports, to ensure effective export control.
Military Exchanges and Cooperation
China has established military ties with over 150 countries and military attaché offices in 107 countries. A total of 85 countries have military attaché offices in China. In the past two years, senior PLA delegations have visited more than 60 countries, and defense ministers, commanders-in-chief of the services, chiefs of the general staff and other high-ranking officers and military-related officials from more than 90 countries have visited China. China and Russia hold regular high-level military exchanges, and the general staff headquarters of the two countries have held the ninth and tenth rounds of strategic consultations. The military activities connected with "Russia Year" were successful. In October 2005 and July 2006, Chinese and US military leaders exchanged visits. China and the US maintain in-depth exchanges through institutionalized defense consultations and maritime military security consultations. China has enhanced high-level military contacts and defense consultations with the European countries, and China-Europe military exchanges have progressed steadily. China maintains military contacts with its neighbors, and has enhanced military exchanges with other developing countries. Since 2005, China has held workshops for senior officers from Latin American and Middle Eastern countries, and China-Germany, China-France workshops for senior officers. It has also hosted the SCO defense and security forum and the China-ASEAN workshop on Asia-Pacific security issues. Since 2002, China has held 16 joint military exercises with 11 countries. In August 2005, China and Russia conducted the "Peace Mission-2005" joint military exercise in Russia's Vladivostok and China's Shandong Peninsula, and their respective offshore waters. In November and December 2005, the PLA Navy held joint maritime search and rescue exercises with its Pakistani, Indian and Thai counterparts, respectively. In September 2006, China and Tajikistan conducted the "Cooperation-2006" joint counter-terrorism military exercise. In September and November 2006, the Chinese Navy and the US Navy conducted joint maritime search and rescue exercises in the offshore waters of San Diego and in the South China Sea. In December 2006, China and Pakistan held the "Friendship-2006" joint counter-terrorism military exercise. In the past two years, the PLA has sent observers to military exercises held by Turkey, Thailand, Pakistan, India, the US and Australia. In September 2005, the PLA invited 41 military observers and military attachés from 24 countries to attend the "North Sword-2005" maneuvers organized by the Beijing Military Area Command. Naval ships from Thailand, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Korea, France, Singapore and Peru have paid port visits to China. PLA naval ships have visited Pakistan, India, Thailand, the United States, Canada and the Philippines. In the past two years, the PLA has continued to expand exchanges of professional expertise and military students with its foreign counterparts. It has sent division- and brigade-level officers of combat troops and relevant functional organs of the Navy, Air Force, Second Artillery Force, military area commands, and general headquarters/departments on overseas study tours. Over 500 military personnel have been dispatched to study in more than 20 countries, and over 2,000 military personnel from more than 140 countries have come to China to study in military schools.
Participation in UN Peacekeeping Operations and International Disaster Relief Operations
Since 1990, China has sent 5,915 military personnel to participate in 16 UN peacekeeping operations. Eight lost their lives and several dozens were wounded on duty. Since 2000, China has sent 893 peacekeeping police officers to seven mission areas. At present, China has 1,487 military peacekeeping personnel serving in nine UN mission areas and the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations. Among them, 92 military observers and staff officers, 175 engineering troops and 43 medical personnel are in Congo (Kinshasa); 275 engineering troops, 240 transportation troops and 43 medical personnel are in Liberia; 275 engineering troops, 100 transportation troops and 60 medical personnel are in Sudan; and 182 engineering troops are in Lebanon. China also has a total of 180 peacekeeping police officers in Liberia, Kosovo, Haiti and Sudan.
The PLA has actively participated in the international disaster relief operations conducted by the Chinese government. It has set up an emergency command mechanism, sent personnel to join specialized rescue teams, provided equipment, and assisted in mission-oriented training. In the past two years, PLA personnel have joined China's international rescue teams in international rescue operations after the Indian Ocean tsunami and the earthquakes in Pakistan and Indonesia. They have conducted search and rescue operations for people in distress, treatment of the sick and injured and prevention of epidemics, and assisted the Chinese government in providing relief materials to disaster-stricken countries.
(China.org.cn December 29, 2006)
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For the last few months, COVID-19 (Coronavirus) has dominated the news cycle and caused concern in our communities and across the globe. The care and safety of our residents, clients, patients, team members and families are our top priority. I am writing to assure you that we take the COVID-19 situation very seriously and we are following Public Health Authority directives to ensure everyone’s safety.
To align with directives set by the Public Health Agency of Canada, our homes and communities are prohibited from allowing non-essential visitors. Please know we understand the importance of connecting with your family member or friend, especially during stressful and uncertain times. Even though we are no longer able to provide a space for in-person interaction, the communication between families and friends and residents will not come to an end. We encourage you to maintain the connection through technology. Many families and friends have stayed connected through telephone calls, FaceTime, Skype and other platforms.
We appreciate your cooperation in the best interest of everyone’s safety. We are all in this together and our objective is to keep everyone safe.
What is COVID-19?
COVID-19 is an illness caused by a new coronavirus first discovered in Wuhan China. Common signs of COVID-19 infection include fever, respiratory symptoms, cough and sneezing. In more severe cases, infection can cause shortness of breath, pneumonia and respiratory failure requiring a ventilator. More severe cases are seen in older people and those with pre-existing medical problems.
What is Extendicare doing about COVID-19?
Extendicare activated our incident management system (IMS) comprised of infection prevention and control experts and supported by leaders from across the company. The IMS team meets daily to develop and implement strategies to manage the virus threat, and ensures we are current with our practices in prevention and doing everything we can to prevent the spread of COVID-19 within our homes. We work closely with Public Health Authorities across Canada and follow their directives. Rest assured, our team members are trained and prepared and have measures in place to protect everyone’s safety including:
Securing sufficient Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for all staff
All staff are required to wear masks while in our homes and retirement communities, and while providing care to patients/clients in the community
Distributing educational materials on COVID-19 to our team members, including current information from the Public Health Agency of Canada
Posters illustrating how to use personal protective equipment (PPE)
Screening all employees and residents twice daily, including taking temperatures
Reminders that hand hygiene is the most effective way to prevent the spread of infections
Ensuring that hand sanitizer is available for all staff
Continued daily monitoring of the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) and World Health Organization directives regarding required responses to COVID-19
What can you do?
Protect Yourself and Others – Follow hand hygiene guidelines: wash hands with soap and water or an alcohol-based hand sanitizer (if soap and water are not available), avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth, coughing etiquette: cough or sneeze into your elbow or a tissue and proceed to throw out the tissue and wash your hands, get your flu shot, and refrain from visiting if you are ill or have symptoms. We all play a part in slowing the spread of COVID-19.
Stay Informed – Information regarding COVID-19 changes daily. Watch for updated communications on COVID-19 subjects such as screening and isolation procedures, recommended prevention activities, travel advisories etc. by following the Public Health Agency of Canada.
Don’t Panic! – There is a lot of misinformation about COVID-19 out there: calm and measured reactions to COVID-19 from all will carry us through this challenge.
Thank you for your continued cooperation in response to this global issue.
We remain committed to keeping you safe. As Extendicare operates under protocols established by Public Health Authorities, please reach out to your local office for further information on the procedures in place.
If you have any questions or concerns surrounding how Extendicare is handling the situation, please contact [email protected].
Sincerely,
Lyn Fabricius
National Director, Infection Prevention and Control, Extendicare
Useful Resources on COVID-19
Public Health Agency of Canada: Travel Advice for Canadians
Public Health Agency of Canada: Current Risk to Canadians
World Health Organization (WHO): How to Protect Yourself
World Health Organization (WHO): Myth Busters on COVID-19
Attachments:
COVID-19 Family and Resident Letter - April 16, 2020
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Aug 26
Doing Everything Possible to Ensure Protection for our Communities| Mandatory Vaccination for Long-Term Care and Retirement Home Staff
Extendicare is taking action, along with a coalition of national seniors’ living operators, including Chartwell, Responsive Group, Revera and Sienna, to make COVID-19 vaccination mandatory for all long-term care and retirement home staff across Canada. continue
Mar 15
Continuing to Make Strides Against COVID-19 – Community Update from CEO, Dr. Michael Guerriere
March 15, 2021 continue
To Our Extendicare Community, continue
There has been good news to start the year with vaccines being administered to vulnerable populations across Canada. Extendicare continues to work with our public health partners across the country to administer first and second doses to help protect our communities. continue
Our staff have fought day-in and day-out against this devastating virus for a year. While it has been difficult, the vaccine gives hope that we are nearing a return to better times. continue
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Extendicare Halton Hills Supports the Alzheimer Society of Canada
Extendicare Halton Hills hosts Coffee Break in support of the Alzheimer Society of Canada continue
Extendicare Halton Hills Resident Learns To Knit Again.
With the help of a family member, resident makes baby hats for premature babies in hospitals. continue
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The following comments are from Tom Grill, co-founder of Comstock, and the world's leading producer of RM stock images for many years, if not still. Now he produces both RF and RM and earns as much from RF as from RM. Through his regular seminars in the '80s and early '90s he mentored many of today's most successful stock photographers, and recently he has started conducing seminars again. In 2003 I did a long dialogue with Tom in Story 548 that you might want to review. Here he comments on the Return-Per-Image issue I have recently discussed in Stories 779, 786 and 791.
By Tom Grill
I've been reading with interest all your recent articles about RPI, and Getty's falling return rate. I would like to make a few observations that may expand the way of looking at the situation.
When comparing RPI from one agency to another, photographers must keep in mind the number of selects along with the type of material that is being selected. The overall return from the shoot takes precedence.
Let's look at an example:
Agency A has an RPI of $200
Agency B has an RPI of $80
If, out of a submission of 50 images, agency A selects 12 where Agency B would select 30, then the actual return for that particular shoot is very close no matter which agency markets the images:
Agency A: 12 images times $200 = $2400
Agency B: 30 images times $80 = $2400
Add to this that Getty is accepting more trendy (i.e. marginal) material as opposed to mainline subjects, and you are only going to see a further diminishing return exacerbated by the fact that trendy material dies quicker on the vine, which goes in the face of the stock photo dictum of shooting for longevity.
On top of all this, the fewer Getty selects will result in a greater dilution factor from Getty's database expansion. Marginal subjects do not fair well in such an environment. It is more difficult to find them. What the photographer should want is an agency that will take both the marginal (trendy) treatment of the subject AND the mainline (albeit "stocky") treatment AT THE SAME TIME. In this situation the photographer can potentially gain three times the sales for exactly the same situation. (I say "three times" because the basic treatment will most likely sell at least twice as well as the trendy one.)
Stock photography is a long term investment best served with a large, balanced, broadly placed portfolio. Chasing the near term dollar is only a good strategy when it is folded into a much broader production range and distribution. While it might appear an easier choice to take the higher RPI, the fight to get there may be counter productive, and in the end other agencies who are accepting more images and more basic subjects may be the better venue.
I left Comstock 4 ½ years ago to become a born-again-photographer. By taking my own advice as mentioned above, I have already produced and distributed an image database larger than the one I left behind at Comstock and more imminently suited to internet marketing. I am seeing returns that are exponentially greater than I ever realized. The smaller agencies of the world are showing greater strength and growth than ever before. They have a voracious appetite and ready clients for well produced material, and, in the aggregate, I am finding that the return is at least equal to and quickly becoming greater than what you are reporting for Getty. While it may be more difficult to market in this way, in the end it is a safer strategy in that it reduces a photographer's reliance on the whims of any one agency.
Another Topic
Regarding your comparison of the RPI of Photographer's Choice to the mainline Getty RPI, I suspect you may be comparing apples to oranges and not apples to apples. Here's why:
The main difference PC and the rest of Getty is the selection process. All of Getty goes through a standard Getty editing standard. PC does not. I have reviewed the images in the PC collection and found a vast number that simply will not sell well. So I find it an amazing coincidence that PC and mainline Getty are so close in RPI. That said, if photographers were to load up the PC brand with very basic mainline conceptual material, I think they would achieve much higher returns that the regular brands.
Copyright © 2006 Jim Pickerell. The above article may not be copied, reproduced, excerpted or distributed in any manner without written permission from the author. All requests should be submitted to Selling Stock at 10319 Westlake Drive, Suite 162, Bethesda, MD 20817, phone 301-461-7627, e-mail: [email protected]
Jim Pickerell is founder of www.selling-stock.com, an online newsletter that publishes daily. He is also available for personal telephone consultations on pricing and other matters related to stock photography. He occasionally acts as an expert witness on matters related to stock photography. For his current curriculum vitae go to: http://www.jimpickerell.com/Curriculum-Vitae.aspx.
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Genus Zamia is in the family Zamiaceae. Species epithets begin with: A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P R S T U V W Y
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With continued uncertainty around the coronavirus, parents and educators are forced to make difficult decisions as the school year approaches.
Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images
The novel coronavirus has now killed more than 773,000 people worldwide.
More than 21.5 million people across the globe have been diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new respiratory virus, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The actual numbers are believed to be much higher due to testing shortages, many unreported cases and suspicions that some national governments are hiding or downplaying the scope of their outbreaks.
The United States is the worst-affected country in the world, with more than 5.4 million diagnosed cases and at least 170,028 deaths.
Valerie Macon/AFP via Getty Images
(FILES) In this file photo taken on April 30, 2020, a postal worker sort mail at a Los Angeles, California, facility. - The US Postal Service is popularly known for delivering mail despite snow, rain or heat, but it faces a new foe in President Donald Trump. Ahead of the November 3 elections in which millions of voters are expected to cast ballots by mail due to the threat of the coronavirus, Trump has leveled an unprecedented attack at the USPS, opposing efforts to give the cash-strapped agency more money even as changes at the agency have caused widespread delays in delivering mail.
Sunday's headlines:
US death toll surpasses 170,000
New Zealand postpones general election due to virus
Rate of COVID cases in children 'steadily increasing'
Off-campus sorority house quarantined after 23 test positive, OSU says
Georgia governor issues new order to let some cities impose mask mandates
Editor's Picks
Cheesecake Factory, Denny's among restaurant chains facing bankruptcy amid coronavirus
NCAA conferences forging ahead with sports amid COVID-19 'moving into very troubled waters'
Thousands of students, staff sent home nationwide as COVID snarls school reopenings
Here's how the news developed Sunday. All times Eastern.
9:05 p.m.: US death toll surpasses 170,000
More than 170,000 people have now died from COVID-19 in the United States.
Johns Hopkins University reported 170,028 confirmed deaths right before 9 p.m.
Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted in its latest forecast that the U.S. coronavirus death toll could reach 200,000 by Labor Day.
8:45 p.m.: New Zealand postpones general election due to virus
New Zealand's general election will be pushed back by four weeks due to a new coronavirus outbreak, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced.
The election will be postponed from Sept. 19 to Oct. 17.
"Ultimately this was my decision," said Ardern, who is seeking a second term.
Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern makes an exit during a press conference at Parliament on August 17, 2020 in Wellington, New Zealand. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced that New Zealand's General Election will be delayed until 17 October due to disruptions caused by COVID-19 restrictions.
After initially containing the virus, New Zealand has experienced a resurgence of COVID-19 cases following 102 days without a report of community transmission.
New Zealand recorded an additional 13 new COVID-19 cases in the past day, according to the Health Ministry, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 1,271.
On Friday, Ardern announced that Auckland -- the city at the center of the new outbreak -- will remain under lockdown for another 12 days.
7:25 p.m.: New cases down, deaths slightly up from previous week
New COVID-19 cases have continued to decrease, while new deaths went up slightly last week nationally, according to an internal FEMA memo obtained by ABC News.
There was a 3.6% decrease in new cases and a 0.8% increase in new deaths last week compared to the previous week, the memo said.
The national test-positivity rate also decreased: Last week, the rate was 6.4%, down from 7.7% the previous week, according to the memo.
6:10 p.m.: Alabama high school to temporarily close
An Alabama high school will close this week after several confirmed cases of COVID-19.
In a letter, the principal of Elkmont High School in Limestone County said the school will be closed from Monday through Friday, affecting students in the sixth through 12th grade. Students will do virtual learning while the school undergoes sanitization, the letter said, with a decision on reopening to come later this week.
Last week, four students tested positive for COVID-19, and 40 students -- nearly half of whom were on the football team -- were sent home to quarantine, Huntsville, Alabama, ABC affiliate WAAY reported. More than 300 students in the Limestone County school district are under quarantine, according to WAAY.
This marks the first known school in the state to close since Alabama school districts started reopening earlier this month, according to AL.com.
3:15 p.m.: UNC-Chapel Hill announces 4th cluster of cases in past 3 days
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill announced a cluster of cases at a residence hall, marking the 4th cluster discovered at the university in the last 3 days.
The cluster -- which refers to five or more cases in close proximity -- was found in Hinton James Residence Hall, the university said in a statement.
Ted Richardson/For The Washington Post via Getty Images
Students have their first day of classes, despite the Coronavirus pandemic, at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, NC, Aug. 10, 2020.
The individuals from this cluster have been identified, isolated and have received medical monitoring. The Orange County Health Department is also working to identify anyone else who may have been exposed.
Two clusters were found in residence halls -- Ehringhaus Community and Granville Towers -- on Friday. An additional cluster was discovered at Sigma Nu fraternity on Saturday, according to the university. Two other residence halls have also seen clusters
10:45 a.m.: 7 million tests conducted in New York state
New York state has conducted 7 million diagnostic tests for COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in a press release Sunday.
For the ninth straight day the percentage of positive cases in the state was below 1%. The state saw an additional 607 coronavirus cases and now has a total of 425,508 cases statewide.
Cuomo praised the "hard work of New Yorkers" for the decline in new cases.
"For more than a week, we've seen our positivity rate stay below 1 percent, and to date New York has done 7 million tests—these are remarkable accomplishments that New Yorkers should be proud of," Cuomo said. "But, we must not become complacent and risk slipping backwards — everyone must remember to wear their masks, socially distance, wash their hands regularly, and stay New York Tough."
Six deaths were recorded in the state on Saturday, increasing the New York death total to 25,250, the release stated.
3:52 a.m.: Rate of COVID cases in children 'steadily increasing'
The CDC has issued guidance to inform pediatric healthcare providers and said that while it is unclear whether children are as susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2 compared with adults and whether they can transmit the virus as effectively as adults, recent evidence suggests that children likely have the same or higher viral loads compared with adults and that children can spread the virus effectively in households and camp settings.
"The number and rate of cases in children in the United States have been steadily increasing from March to July 2020," the CDC's updated guidelines read. "The true incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children is not known due to lack of widespread testing and the prioritization of testing for adults and those with severe illness. Hospitalization rates in children are significantly lower than hospitalization rates in adults with COVID-19, suggesting that children may have less severe illness from COVID-19 compared to adults."
Lm Otero/AP, FILE
Students wearing masks to prevent the spread of COVID19 walk to class to begin their school day in Godley, Texas, Aug. 5, 2020.
"While children infected with SARS-CoV-2 are less likely to develop severe illness compared with adults, children are still at risk of developing severe illness and complications from COVID-19," the statement continued. "Recent COVID-19 hospitalization surveillance data shows that the rate of hospitalization among children is low (8.0 per 100,000 population) compared with that in adults (164.5 per 100,000 population), but hospitalization rates in children are increasing.
The CDC also said that while children do have lower rates of mechanical ventilation and death than adults, on in three children who are hospitalized with COVID-19 complications in the United States were admitted to the intensive care unit -- the same rate for adults.
3:04 a.m.: Off-campus sorority house quarantined after 23 test positive for COVID-19, OSU says
Oklahoma State University officials announced Saturday that 23 people in an off-campus sorority house have tested positive for COVID-19.
According to a news release, Oklahoma State University officials learned Friday night of 23 positive coronavirus cases at the university's Pi Beta Phi chapter, an off-campus sorority house. The release states rapid antigen testing was performed at an off-campus health care facility.
“Due to the nature of this situation, the entire chapter house is in isolation or quarantine and will be prohibited from leaving the facility,” the news release states. “One member of the sorority who lives elsewhere is among those who tested positive and will also remain in isolation.”
Everyone involved is being monitored by Oklahoma State University and Payne County Health Department officials, and the release states contact tracing is being conducted to further protect the campus community.
University officials said the services of a third-party contractor have been enlisted to disinfect the facility and will do so again after the two-week isolation and quarantine period.
What to know about coronavirus:
How it started and how to protect yourself: Coronavirus explained
What to do if you have symptoms: Coronavirus symptoms
Tracking the spread in the U.S. and worldwide: Coronavirus map
12:11 a.m.: Georgia governor issues new order to let some cities impose mask mandates
Georgia governor Brian Kemp issued a new order which renews existing restrictions for gatherings, sheltering in place, and businesses.
He said that local education leaders will continue to have full authority on how best to educate students and keep them safe in school.
“In late July, I asked Georgians to do ‘Four Things for Four Weeks’ to stop COVID-19," Kemp said in a statement issued on Saturday. Without a mandate, our citizens answered the call, and we are making progress. In Georgia, our statewide case numbers have dropped 22% over the last two weeks, and daily hospitalizations have decreased by 7% in the last seven days. We are on average testing over 31,000 Georgians daily at 180 SPOCs while maintaining a low rate of transmission. The positivity rate is on the decline, and the mortality rate continues to fall."
Kemp continued: “While encouraged by the data, we cannot grow complacent. This Executive Order extends the shelter in place order for the medically fragile, continues the ban on large gatherings, and maintains health and safety protocols for Georgia businesses. This order also protects Georgia businesses from government overreach by restricting the application and enforcement of local masking requirements to public property. While I support local control, it must be properly balanced with property rights and personal freedoms. As always, we encourage citizens to wear masks, watch their distance, wash hands, and continue to follow the guidance provided in the Executive Order. Together, we will protect the lives, livelihoods, and personal freedoms of all Georgians.”
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In 2003, only a tenth of Afghans used modern methods of family planning. Today, in a little over a decade, their use has doubled contributing to a decline in deaths in childbirth. Nevertheless, only about 22 percent of couples are presently using any contraceptive method. This is attributable to a lack of comprehensive information, inadequate counselling skills among health service providers, limited access to contraception and cultural factors.
UNFPA works with the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) to provide couples and women the knowledge and means to space their children's births, towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals to reduce maternal and infant mortality.
Supporting effective strategies for family planning
In Afghanistan, health care is delivered through the Basic Package of Health Services (BPHS) which emphasizes reproductive and maternal health. A weakened health care system, existing cultural practices and dependence on foreign aid meant that there was a need for a clear, focused strategy to address Afghanistan's specific challenges in improving reproductive health.
To this end, UNFPA supported the MOPH in developing a National Reproductive Health Strategy in 2006, which was instrumental in facilitating a coordinated approach resulting in a decline in maternal mortality and an increase in contraceptive use. Building on this success, UNFPA has since supported the MoPH in updating the strategy, particularly its Safe Motherhood Initiative and Family Planning.
In 2012, the MoPH launched the updated National Reproductive Health Policy 2012-2016 and the National Reproductive Health Strategy 2012-2016 which will guide actions and spending on reproductive health in years to come. In accordance with international conventions, UNFPA has supported the inclusion of women's health issues, including fistula and cervical cancer, increasing contraceptive choice and male involvement, and reproductive health in emergencies. UNFPA subsequently helped translate the strategy into a budgeted action plan to guide work and mobilize resources for reproductive health.
Engaging religious leaders, media and civil society in advocating for family planning
Religious leaders are key to spreading awareness and acceptance of family planning in Afghanistan, where there is a common misconception that contraception is against Islamic principles. Through religious conferences, publications and direct advocacy, UNFPA works with key religious leaders, building on their statements of support for family planning .
UNFPA has organized three family planning and Islam conferences, which were attended by 580 influential religious leaders and community gate-keepers.
Considering the role of media and women civil society in Afghan society, UNFPA in coordination with MOPH trained 120 women civil society leaders and 20 journalists on family planning and birth spacing
Ensuring reliable contraceptive supplies
Awareness must be supported with the means of contraception. This includes ensuring a reliable supply of contraceptives, trained service providers, and an enabling environment in which there is a strong demand for family planning services.
In response to an MoPH request, UNFPA provides contraceptives to government health facilities which are not otherwise supported by donors.
UNFPA also helped the MoPH to develop stock control mechanisms training 22 provincial reproductive health officers and around 47 pharmacists and stock officers from 20 provinces on software applications to manage family planning commodities.
Training service providers on family planning
To ensure health service providers are able to deliver quality family planning services, UNFPA developed a set of guidelines and training packages at the request of the MoPH. These cover subjects such as male involvement in family planning, postpartum intrauterine contraceptive device, implants, and family planning community health workers. More than 350 health facilities received these trainings to strengthen the quality of their services, ensure adequate family planning supplies and their correct management.
In Afghanistan, women still need permission from their husbands to use family planning, and when men seek advice from male health providers, they are often dissuaded. This is a major constraint in promoting the use of contraceptives. To address this, UNFPA and the MoPH trained more than 793 Health service providers, including 350 male health service providers, on family planning.
Related Content
Publications
Family Health House (FHH) Model, Afghanistan
Mid-Term Review of the Family Health House (FHH) Model, Afghanistan
3 September 2020
see publication >
Publications
National Family Planning Summit Report
National Family Planning Summit Report
2 February 2019
see publication >
News
FAMILY PLANNING SUMMIT: RENEWING COMMITMENT TO THE FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM
Kabul, 2 February 2019 – The Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in collaboration with UNFPA Afghanistan and other international health...
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Oficina de Fiscalización de la Policía
Departamento asociado: Oficina de Fiscalización de la Policía
26 de febrero de 2020
Queja formal: Actitud imparcial y cortesía y otras violaciones a políticas
La Oficina de Fiscalización de la Policía recibió una queja en línea que alega que los oficiales pueden haber violado políticas cuando respondieron a una llamada de servicio relacionada con un incidente de manejo agresivo. OPO recomienda que esta alegación reciba una clasificación A.
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Queja formal: Actitud imparcial y cortesía y otras violaciones a políticas (PDF 542.6KB)
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Aviso: El siguiente texto fue extraído de un documento PDF para hacerlo más accesible. Este contenido generado por máquina puede contener errores de formato. El texto se mostrará en el idioma original del documento. En algunos casos, el texto no se cargará si el documento original es una imagen escaneada o si el texto no tiene capacidad de búsqueda. Para mirar la versión completa, favor de ver el documento PDF.
The City of Austin is committed to compliance with the American Disabilities Act. Reasonable modifications and equal access to communications will be provided upon request. NOTICE OF FORMAL COMPLAINT ICMS #: 2020-0131 February 26, 2020 Complaint: The Office of Police Oversight (OPO) is the complainant. The Office of Police Oversight received an online complaint alleging that Austin Police Department (APD) officers may have violated APD policy when they responded to home for a call for service regarding a road range incident in which she was involved. The complaint states, in part, as follows: “…when these two officers arrived at my home instead of taking my report they insulted me repeatedly. My entire exchange with the officers were them talking down to me, making snarky comments about how I should have reported what happened sooner and dismissed the fact that I had evidence without taking the time acknowledge it or even look at it…As soon as I left, I immediately said out loud this is EXACTLY why people hate the police. These officers were sent to my home to record evidence and take a police report from me. Instead they refused to take the report based on their own racism. They wrote me off as a black woman being hysterical and just wrong as if my attorney's legal counsel and the judge who ruled in my case were wrong or as if he knew better than they did.” This notice of formal complaint is a request for Internal Affairs to initiate an investigation in order to determine if the employee conduct is within compliance of APD policy, Civil Service Rules, and Municipal Civil Service Rules. Recommended Administrative Policies to Review (to include but not limited to): 301.2 IMPARTIAL ATTITUDE AND COURTESY Employees are expected to act professionally, treat all persons fairly and equally, and perform all duties impartially, objectively, and equitably without regard to personal feelings, animosities, friendships, financial status, sex, creed, color, race, religion, age, political beliefs, sexual orientation, gender identity or gender expression or social or ethnic background. 900.3.2 ACTS BRINGING DISCREDIT UPON THE DEPARTMENT Since the conduct of personnel both on-duty or off-duty may reflect directly upon the Department, employees must conduct themselves at all times in a manner which does not bring reproach, discredit, or embarrassment to the Department or to the City. 900.3.4 PERSONAL CONDUCT (c) While on-duty or on the premises of City facilities, employees will not: 1. Use loud, indecent, profane, harsh, derogatory language, or use belittling term in any communications. 2. Ridicule, mock, taunt, embarrass, humiliate, or shame any person, nor do anything that might incite that person to violence. The City of Austin is committed to compliance with the American Disabilities Act. Reasonable modifications and equal access to communications will be provided upon request. NOTICE OF FORMAL COMPLAINT 900.4.3 NEGLECT OF DUTY Employees will satisfactorily perform their duties. Examples of unsatisfactory performance include, but are not limited to: (c) Failure to take appropriate action on the occasion of a crime, disorder, investigation or other condition deserving police attention. 900.1.1 RESPONSIBILITY TO KNOW AND COMPLY The rules of conduct set forth in this order do not serve as an all-inclusive list of requirements, limitations, or prohibitions on employee conduct and activities; employees are required to know and comply with all Department policies, procedures, and written directives. Recommended Classification: The OPO is permitted to make a preliminary recommendation on the classification of administrative cases. The OPO recommends that this allegation receive an A classification.
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The UK government has confirmed that it wants to bring in legislation increasing the maximum sentence for online copyright infringement to 10 years of imprisonment, despite widespread objections and doubts about its feasibility.
Baroness Neville-Rolfe, parliamentary under-secretary of state and minister for intellectual property, writes in her foreword to the document responding to the consultation held at the end of last year: "we are now proposing changes that include increasing the maximum sentence, but at the same time addressing concerns about the scope of the offence. The revised provisions will help protect rights holders, while making the boundaries of the offence clearer, so that everyone can understand how the rules should be applied."
As the UK government's summary of responses reveals, 1,032 submissions were received, of which 938 came through the Open Rights Group. Concerns raised included the fact that there was no requirement to prove that an infringer had intent to cause harm for them to be considered guilty. That meant the proposed offence had an element of "strict liability," which would result in somebody being held liable even if they had no intention of causing harm.
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The UK government has responded to that issue by saying that it accepts there are concerns, and writes: "the policy intention is that criminal offences should not apply to low level infringement that has a minimal effect or causes minimum harm to copyright owners, in particular where the individuals involved are unaware of the impact of their behaviour."
Another major worry was the use of the term "affect prejudicially" in judging copyright infringements, which many felt was too vague and could mean a single infringing file would fulfil the requirement—for example, if it were widely shared online. Many thought this set the threshold for committing an offence far too low.
The UK government said it was not aware of any cases where minor infringement had resulted in a criminal prosecution, but "agrees that the undefined term ‘affect prejudicially’ could give rise to an element of ambiguity." The government is now proposing to introduce "re-worded offence provisions" to address that.
However, that still leaves unanswered the important questions raised by a group of legal experts in their consultation submission. As Ars reported last year, the group called the idea of bringing in a ten-year jail sentence "not acceptable," "not feasible," and "not affordable."
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Glyn Moody Glyn Moody is Contributing Policy Editor at Ars Technica. He has been writing about the Internet, free software, copyright, patents and digital rights for over 20 years.
Email [email protected] // Twitter @glynmoody
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The Caribbean island of Puerto Rico has a long and fascinating history. Because it is located right in the middle of the “New World” it has been a target of conquest for many centuries.
Christopher Columbus landed on the island in 1493, on his second voyage of discovery. It was later settled by the Spanish explorer known as Ponce de Leon and was under possession by the Spanish for over 400 years.
At the end of the Spanish American war, the island of Puerto Rico became United States territory due to the Treaty of Paris.
There are many battlements and fortifications throughout Puerto Rico, built to protect the island from its many invaders.
These are very interesting places on the island that reveal fascinating stories about the past. Here are some of the best historical sites:
Castillo de San Cristobal
This Spanish fort is the largest ever fortification built by the Spanish in the New World. It was constructed in 1783 to protect the city of San Juan from attacks, and it covers approximately 27 acres of land wrapping all around the city of San Juan.
The fortress is perched upon a hill called the Cerro de San Cristobal, named after the Spanish victory ejecting the English and the Dutch interlopers from the island of the same name in the Lesser Antilles.
This fort is truly an amazing historical building to explore, and includes an extensive underground tunnel system, an artillery observation post, and real 200 pound mortar shells.
Fort San Felipe del Morro
Also known as Morro Castle, this is a 16th century citadel that makes a great day trip from any Puerto Rico resort as it is located just within the city of San Juan.
The fortification, named after King Phillip of Spain, was designed to guard the city of San Juan from enemy attacks from the sea. Over two million people per year visit this historical site, making it one of the major attractions in Puerto Rico.
The castle is considered an official UNESCO World Heritage Site and as a “must-see” while you are in Puerto Rico.
Fortin San Juan de la Cruz
This tiny fort is not as large as the other historical sites, but it is just as interesting. It is located on Isla de Cabras, right at the entrance to the San Juan bay.
It was placed here to create a strategic location for crossfire at any invading ships, and its location ensured complete artillery coverage of the area.
Apparently, there used to be a long chain which was stretched from Fortin San Juan de la Cruz to the Fort San Felipe del Morro, which would create a physical barrier and stop ships from coming into the harbor.
The fort was also in an important location for guarding the Bayamon River. The square building was built in the 1600s and although the interior is closed to the public you can walk around the walls.
These are just a few of the fascinating historical sites that you can visit while exploring the beautiful island of Puerto Rico.
Filed Under: Travel Tagged With: History, Puerto Rico, travel, trivia
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'There's so much need:' L.A., Chicago launch country's largest guaranteed basic income programs - Basic Income Today
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This new basic income experiment will give money to both rich and poor
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‘There’s so much need:’ L.A., Chicago launch country’s largest guaranteed basic income programs
November 8, 2021
Los Angeles and Chicago are rolling out guaranteed basic income programs that will provide direct cash assistance to thousands of struggling families.
By Alicia Victoria Lozano and Safia Samee Ali
Original article: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/there-s-so-much-need-l-chicago-launch-nation-s-n1283368
As millions of people continue to feel the financial fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, two of the country’s biggest cities are committing millions of dollars to help struggling families.
Los Angeles and Chicago are rolling out guaranteed basic income pilot programs that will provide monthly payments to low-income residents for one year. Los Angeles’ program, dubbed BIG:LEAP, will give 3,200 people $1,000 a month, and Chicago’s initiative will provide 5,000 residents $500 a month.
Recipients will be picked at random.
Applications for Los Angeles’ initiative closed Friday; Chicago is still hammering details for its program. Both are set to launch next year.
The programs, which will be the largest of their kind, build on momentum generated by smaller initiatives like the two-year pilot in Stockton, California, which was found to increase participants’ full-time employment and decrease anxiety and depression. Basic income programs have also been tried in Finland, Kenya, Brazil and several other countries.
About 40 other U.S. cities have considered or implemented similar efforts, according to Mayors for a Guaranteed Income, including Minneapolis; Denver; Newark, New Jersey; Pittsburgh; San Francisco; New Orleans; and Compton, California.
In July, Los Angeles County supervisors approved a three-year pilot program for residents ages 18 to 24, and California is also looking into the potential of launching a statewide initiative.
Can it work on a bigger scale?
Previous attempts to provide direct cash assistance payments have largely yielded positive results, but economists question whether similar programs can be replicated on a large scale.
“The [federal] child tax credit, as well as the stimulus, showed that there are some holes and some people get left out of these sort of large government programs,” said the director of the Center for Guaranteed Income Research at the University of Pennsylvania, Stacia West, an assistant professor of social work at the University of Tennessee.
“Part of what we’re looking at is what disbursement mechanism works best for specific populations, and my feeling is that a one-size-fits-all approach is not going to work,” she said.
The idea of giving direct cash assistance to low-income residents has been tossed around for generations by economists, legislators and community leaders, and it has gained significant momentum during the pandemic.
According to census data, 18.4 percent of Chicago residents experience poverty, compared to 18 percent of Los Angeles residents, higher than the national average of 11 percent. The number of people living in poverty declined overall during the pandemic because of the massive stimulus relief measures enacted at the beginning of the crisis, the Census Bureau reported in September.
“We have so much need in this city,” said Abigail Marquez, the general manager of the Community Investment for Families Department, the lead administrator for Los Angeles’ program.
Stockton test case
Even before Covid-19 prompted a federal stimulus, basic income drew national attention when 2020 presidential candidate Andrew Yang proposed a so-called Freedom Dividend, which would have provided $1,000 to every U.S. adult for one year, in his platform.
“We know that the policy has to come at the federal level,” said former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs, who spearheaded the city’s program in 2019. “We also know that cities are laboratories of democracy, and oftentimes, particularly in this hyperpolarized time we live in, mayors have the ability to break through the noise and pilot policies.”
Key findings from the first year of Stockton’s program showed that guaranteed income reduced income instability, helped recipients find full-time jobs and enhanced mental and overall well-being, according to a report released this year.
“Having two of the three biggest cities in the country being so bold and have guaranteed income means so much,” Tubbs said. “It creates even more evidence and more people who are supportive of this idea.”
While Stockton’s program was funded by donors, Chicago and Los Angeles are investing money from their budgets for their initiatives. Chicago has committed $31 million, and Los Angeles will pay $38 million, including $11 million that was cut from the police budget after last summer’s uprisings following George Floyd’s death in Minneapolis.
Challenges to large-scale implementation
When translating the idea to larger cities, economists say, researchers will weigh two main concerns: the impact of losing benefits, like Section 8 vouchers or SNAP benefits, and how the money would be disbursed to those who qualify.
Los Angeles administrators are asking public agencies to waive restrictions to protect participants’ existing benefits, Marquez said.
Gary Painter, a public policy expert at the University of Southern California, said: “If you’re a single parent, for instance, it’s not clear what value these programs have beyond the social safety net programs that currently exist. At scale, we’re going to think hard about how this income source is treated by other programs, and I have not heard that discussion writ large.”
Another potential challenge for larger cities is to gain and maintain trust. West said many people who are eligible for government programs are accustomed to not being trusted, so a more person-centered approach is needed not only in disbursing the money but also in tracking data.
“Guaranteed income has to really separate itself from that paternalistic ‘you’re a number, you don’t matter, there’s something morally wrong with you’ and the internalized welfare stigma the individuals have,” she said.
While Chicago and Los Angeles are among a growing number of cities providing income assistance, the proposals did not come without pushback.
In Chicago, 20 members of the City Council’s Black caucus said that the program should be canceled and that funding should be diverted toward violence prevention and reparations for Black residents, the Chicago Tribune reported. Other legislators opposed the program because they felt that it would discourage residents from working.
“Classic economic models imply that if you have more money then you work less, but in the Stockton experiment it was the exact opposite. We saw them increase their labor force participation and [have] more success in the labor market,” said Stephen Ross, an economics professor at the University of Connecticut. “It will be interesting to see if the larger pilots show the same thing.”
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VANCOUVER -- Several high-profile BC Liberal incumbents have fallen as John Horgan's NDP secured the party's first majority government since the 1990s.
Long-serving Liberal incumbent Mary Polak has lost her seat in Langley.
According to the CTV News results team, Polak was defeated by NDP candidate Andrew Mercier, a local lawyer.
Polak was first elected in 2005, then re-elected in 2009, 2013 and 2017. She served as the official opposition house leader and sat on multiple special committees.
"We knew this was going to be a tough fight," Polak said after the result came in.
"If we look overall, there are some choices that we made and one of those choices was to co-operate with government with the Greens and the NDP throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, did that hurt us electorally? Probably. But it was still the right decision to make."
Mercier sits on the University of the Fraser Valley’s board of governors and is a member of the City of Langley’s Crime Prevention Task Group. He ran for city council in 2018 and for MLA of the Langley riding in 2013.
In the last election, Polak beat the NDP’s candidate by nearly 2,500 votes.
“As affordability issues become more prevalent with families, they’re moving out into the Fraser Valley,” Dianne Watts, former Surrey mayor and MP and member of CTV News’s election panel said Saturday night.
“And so the demographic is changing.”
The NDP's Megan Dykeman is also leading in Langley East, a BC Liberal stronghold, which previously belonged to former deputy premier Rich Coleman for 24 years. Coleman stepped aside and his replacement, Margaret Kunst, faced significant criticism this year for voting against a symbolically supportive rainbow crosswalk as a Langley Township councillor.
Liberals lose seat in Vancouver-False Creek
Liberal incumbent Sam Sullivan has lost his seat in Vancouver-False Creek to the NDP, according to the CTV News results team.
Sullivan eked out a win in 2017 with just 415 votes, but the former Vancouver mayor faced a tough opponent in the NDP's Brenda Bailey.
Bailey is an entrepreneur who launched her first business in the riding in 2004, and later started Canada's first woman-owned video game studio.
Sullivan served as the critic for social development and poverty reduction. Before he was first elected in 2013, Sullivan was 38th mayor of Vancouver from 2006 to 2009 and a Vancouver city councillor from 1993 to 2005.
Since the Vancouver False-Creek riding was formed in 2008, it has always been represented by the Liberals.
Extinction rebellion spokesperson Maayan Kreitzman ran in the riding for the Greens, while body shop owner Erik Gretland represented the Conservatives.
Liberals lose seat in Richmond-Queensborough
The prominent Liberal incumbent candidate for Richmond-Queensborough has lost his seat to NDP candidate Aman Singh, according to the CTV News results team.
Johal was first elected in 2017, when he beat Singh by just 134 votes. Johal served as the critic for economic development, competitiveness, trade and technology.
Singh, a well-known human and civil rights lawyer in the riding, has lived in B.C. since 1988.
"It is an honour to be elected as the next MLA for Richmond-Queensborough. I am so grateful to all of the people who took the time to speak with me over the last few weeks and shared with me the issues they and their families are facing," Singh said in an emailed statement after the results were announced.
"As the first turbaned Sikh to be elected to the legislature, I am proud to be joining John Horgan and the BC NDP in Victoria and look forward to getting to work for my community."
CTV News has projected a majority government win for the NDP and, as of 11:45 p.m., CTV News has also declared NDP winners in the following previously Liberal seats:
Richmond-Steveston: Kelly Greene, a city councillor, defeated the Liberals’ Matt Pittcairn, who ran after incumbent John Yap announced he was retiring for the 2020 vote.
Surrey-Cloverdale: Mike Starchuk beat Liberal incumbent Marvin Hunt.
Boundary-Similkameen: Roly Russell claimed a seat from the Liberal Party. The former Liberal MLA for this district, Linda Larson, did not run in this election, and instead an Oliver city councillor ran for the Liberals, Petra Veintimilla.
North Vancouver-Seymour: Susie Chant beat Liberal incumbent Jane Thornthwaite.
Chilliwack: Dan Coulter beat incumbent John Martin
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain: Fin Donnelly took Liberal incumbent Joan Iasaacs' seat.
Parksville-Qualicum: Adam Walker beat the Liberals' Michelle Stilwell.
NDP candidate Murray Rankin also took the previously Green seat of Oak Bay-Gordon Head.
Some other ridings were still too close to call as of Saturday night.
In the 2017 election, the Liberals won 41 seats, while the Greens won three.
RELATED IMAGES
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Liberal incumbents Jas Johal, Sam Sullivan and Mary Polak all lost their seats in the 2020 B.C. election. (File photos)
B.C. votes: CTV News' 2020 election hub
BC Liberal leader stepping down after election night loss
B.C. election: Final count tallied in several close ridings
B.C. election: Former Liberal MLA for Chilliwack-Kent concedes after tumultuous campaign
'It's a wake-up call': B.C. election reveals declining support for Liberals, need for change in party
Former premier Christy Clark on a new path and new leader for the BC Liberals
'I felt so embarrassed': North Vancouver woman feels singled out because of her race at polling station
Horgan promises to work across party lines after winning majority
10 close ridings from Saturday's provincial election
CTV News declares NDP majority in B.C. election
B.C. Election 2020: Here are the results for all 87 ridings
NDP gains: High-profile Liberal incumbents Mary Polak, Jas Johal, Sam Sullivan lose seats
Interactive map: Here's a look at how B.C. voted in the last provincial election
B.C. election: Find out who's running in your riding using this interactive map
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My 2019 resolution is to switch to freelancing, mostly home-office. I took a 6 months break to think about what was really bothering me in my previous jobs, here are my results.
François Raminosona
Jan 10, 2019 • 8 min read
It's 2019 folks! Happy new year! 🥂🍾 My 2019 resolution is to switch to freelancing, mostly home-office.
I'm only 25 and I've joined and left 10 different companies already. It says as much about me as it says about the state of IT positions in France.
Right after high school my main objective was to try as many things as possible and narrow it down from there. I was able to narrow down my field, Mobile and other frontend technologies were more my thing, but I couldn't find the job parameters for me: managers, projects, pay, location... I even tried to create my own company 2 years ago, it failed again because of french co-founders = bad (co)managers and bad pay ...
Tired of only complaining, and surely annoying my surrounding with it, I decided to act.
I took some time off during the last 6 months to think about what was bothering me deeply, clean it up of all the anger and feelings and analyse what was really going wrong.
TL;DR : Goals
Commuting smarter, only when necessary
1h worked = 1h paid
Choosing my middlemen better
Never promise to get tasks done but agree to work on tasks
1) Commuting
Yes, commuting is a burden for everybody. But it doesn't have to be.
I understand that some jobs aren't compatible with remote work, but I think those who can should lead the way in that path.
Do you really need to be physically in your company's building every day?
We are well into the era of Skypes, Slacks, Teams and other collaboration platforms.
As an MSN Messenger kid, I don't understand why many companies are not accepting remote work for positions that could clearly be compatible.
Photo by ROOM / Unsplash
Many of my friends told me that their typical workday is to come to the office, say hi (to notify of the time of arrival...), go to meetings, work on a desk, and then leave. Unless you're discussing a physical product at those meeting (clothes, paper towels, whatever ...) I don't see why this meeting couldn't be virtual.
Sure, it requires some preparation, discipline, and tooling to hold an efficient virtual meeting, but nothing impossible.
Do you know how much your commuting time costs you?
Photo by Ankush Minda / Unsplash
Simple calculus that I encourage everyone to make:
I used to earn in Paris 45k€/y (Yes, I'm transparent and I don't care) so roughly 20€/h after taxes. Living in Paris I had to commute 1h back and 1h forth. So, loosing 40€ of my time per day. Multiply that by 252 worked days per year in France (yeah, we know, we are lazy), you get 10 080€. This is without counting the transportation pass, the higher rent than anywhere else in France, etc.
10 080€ is also what you could make working 2 extra hours per day, tutoring a student for 2 hours or working on another project. Emphasis on the "could", nobody forces you to! Calm down you Yellow Jacket, but don't complain if you've spent those extra 2 hours of personal time per day to go on a strike, marching in the cold streets and loosing an eye.
Socialising with coworkers is the main reason for going to work for me. I prefer to invest the time/money of going to the workplace as a socialising spending, with the same value as going to the cinema or a bar, rather than an obligatory spending.
Photo by Austin Distel / Unsplash
Trust issues
The main reason for not allowing remote work is trust issues.
One of my former bosses explained to me:
How could I know if he's working when he's not at work at his desk? I mean if he's home why would he be working? I can't check ... Maybe if I require him to leave his webcam open at all times ...
To this I reply:
So, if you were offered the possibility of working from home you'd be chilling by the pool? Some people have conscientiousness. Because you'd do it doesn't mean he would.
(ps. you're a terrible person)
Remember that trust needs to go both ways. When you imply that you do not trust your employees to work when they are not at their desk, they can not trust you either. You are saying that, in the same situation, you would screw the system/team/company for your own personal gain.
My first reflex then is to start looking for another job.
2) Difference between paid hours and worked hours
I'm deeply passionate about my work. Always giving more than required. I've saved more than 35 000$ in licences and hardware to my last company thanks to my extra work and connections, when I brought it up to ask for a few favours they told me "We didn't ask you to do this specifically, we asked you to find solutions, which you did". This article will be about the employment contract and why I think it can be a scam.
I don't know about your country but in France we have a type of employment contracts called "CDI Cadre". It means "Long term contract without fixed hours but with fixed objectives" and it is considered the Holy Grail of employment contracts. It's salary as a subscription: you're paid the same amount every month regardless of how much your boss "uses" you. Renting an apartment or taking a loan in France is 10x easier with this kind of contract.
The recruiters will say about a CDI:
It's safer for you, you won't have to look for another job, you have one secured here!
Since you have "flexible hours" you can adjust your work schedule to your workload! I think you're talented, so you'll probably finish your days at 4pm, right?
We only have this daily meeting at 9am. Quick and easy. [IT specific : Because we are cool kids, we use Scrum and Agile.]
They will not say :
If you want to resign you have to give 3 month notice. You know you won't get job insurance pay if you resign from a CDI so you won't! We own you!
[IT specific : We are working with a huge backlog so there is always something more to do.] We have a lot of work to be done. You will never finish your day before 7pm since nobody leaves before 7pm. And "team spirit" is important.
Yes you have to be present at that 9am meeting. It means you have to be at work from 9am to (at least) 7pm. Yes, it is a daily overtime of 3h compared to a "non-cadre" contract. No, it will not be paid.
Same as for commuting, 3h of your time per day is worth 15 120€ per year. This brings it to a total of 25 200€ per year.
I think the next time I'll sign a "CDI Cadre" is the day I can pay my groceries as a subscription. Can you imagine walking in a Target or Carrefour, paying a monthly fee of 200€ and being able to walk out of there with anything you want? That's exactly the comfort bosses of CDI Cadre have.
3) Choosing the middleman
I'm sure you're familiar with consulting companies, or "talent sourcing" companies. Those companies that sell one day of your time and skill 1000€ (more or less) to a big client and then pays you 140€ for that same day of work (45k€/y in Paris). I'm not sure I even need to explain what's wrong here ...
In the aftermath of every mission, like "Developing an app for client X" or "Designing a logo for client Y", the client puts money on the table, the worker puts actual work.time.skill, the middle-man takes 80% of the money for having introduced the client and the worker. Basically, that's what Linkedin is for. Seems unfair ? It is.
If you're tired of giving 80% of the money your work is worth to salespeople so that they can go to restaurants with clients or to an oversized HR team whose job is to replace you: quit. Remember that you don't need them as much as they need you.
When you switch to freelancing, keep in mind that a company (final client) agreed to pay 143€ per one hour of your time. This is what you are worth sold by expert salesmen. Now of course you're not an expert salesman, but any price between 140€ and 1000€ per day, without that middle-man, benefits you and the final client at the same time.
Photo by Mink Mingle / Unsplash
4) Ability to say "no"
A friend of mine told me a good story :
"If I ask you to empty a vehicle, how long do you think it'll take you?"
"I don't know, maybe 20 minutes"
/* Goes and comes back the next morning */
"Okay, so I said to family X that you'll move all the furniture from their truck to their 5th floor new apartment by 10h20. There is no lift but that's just a detail for someone as work driven as you are, right?"
It happens a lot in IT and in a lot of other fields too. I'm not sure how this technique is called.
In IT they took it even further where you're not the only one estimating your own tasks but all the developers of the project estimate the task for you, bragging proudly about how fast they would (supposedly) finish it. It's called "poker planning".
Estimating the deadline like this is just wrong as anything can happen. You could get injured by a piano falling on your feet, the doors to the building can be blocked for 1 hour by a fire alarm, you could break a vase by accident and need to repair it.
Photo by Kai Pilger / Unsplash
There is also the story of the painter, by Paul Cunningham : [Full story here : https://paulcunningham.me/overtime-on-call-and-the-myth-of-the-it-hero/ ]
Imagine a painter hired to paint your employer's offices. The job should take five days, and the painter will get paid $5000 to cover materials, their time, and some profit.
The painter spends the week painting. On Friday the employer says, “Actually we've got a whole other floor that needs painting by Monday. So we need you to stay and keep painting.”
What do you think the painter is going to do in that situation? If they were like many IT professionals they would keep working through the weekend to finish the job. They'd work long hours, and work as fast as possible. And they wouldn't charge any more than the original $5000.
Photo by Anna Kolosyuk / Unsplash
The boss would say "I need this room painted before Monday, I promised X it would be done, you said you'll be done, we all need it painted before Monday, we all relied on you. You like painting, it's your thing, so it should take you a couple hours anyway, I believe in you, you're our wonder-boy!"
This happened to me mostly in Start-ups. A combination of belittling the worker's job and blaming the worker for commitments he didn't make.
By being a freelancer I'm counting on being able to put a limit to this. Every time I hear a client/salesman say
"So we pay you {amount of money} for you to finish {tasks} before {deadline}."
I reply
"No, you pay me {amount of money} per hour of my time and skill that I will dedicate to work on {tasks} and if everything goes well I think it will be done by {deadline}".
The 2 sentences are very similar, but the small changes are very important.
Thank you for reading this long story, I hope it helped you. If you liked it or if you have any question don't hesitate to comment below ! 🙂
How much salary should you ask for ? [foreigner edition]
It can be very hard to know how much money you should ask for when going to work abroad. After many failures I've decided to write down an estimation technique, and I'll share it with you here.
François Raminosona Oct 8, 2021 • 4 min read
Reflections on “Why remote freelancer”
Hi everyone! It's been a while since I've posted on here ... I want to give you some updates about where I'm at today and some learnings from my 2 years in the same company.
François Raminosona Oct 8, 2021 • 3 min read
Singleton snippet (PC/Mac) #XamarinMonth
Code Snippets (or templates in the Visual Studio for Mac world) are ready-made snippets of code you can quickly insert into your code. Here is my snippet/template to implement a singleton.
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Với việc khách hàng đưa ra quyết định mua hàng dựa trên các video có nội dung hấp dẫn, không có gì lạ khi 81% doanh nghiệp đang sử dụng hình thức quảng cáo video để thúc đẩy doanh số cho sản phẩm của họ. Tầm quan trọng của quảng cáo video đang không ngừng tăng lên, các nhà nghiên cứu ước tính rằng 85 phần trăm tất cả lưu lượng truy cập internet ở Hoa Kỳ sẽ dựa trên video vào năm 2020.
Vì vậy, câu hỏi về cách chạy các chiến dịch quảng cáo video hiệu quả trở thành một vấn đề quan trọng với mỗi người làm marketing. Làm thế nào để nội dung của bạn nổi bật hơn so với hàng triệu video khác có chủ đề tương tự? Làm thế nào để bạn thu hút sự chú ý của người xem và giữ nó đủ lâu để truyền tải thành công thông điệp thương hiệu của bạn? Dưới đây là ba bước cơ bản:
1) Kể một câu chuyện
Hầu như tất cả khách hàng thích xem nội dung dưới dạng một câu chuyện. Đó là lý do tại sao bạn thấy ngày càng nhiều thương hiệu tạo ra một câu chuyện xung quanh các sản phẩm của họ => để làm cho thương hiệu của họ trở nên dễ hiểu hơn và dễ dàng kết nối hơn với người xem.
Kể chuyện là cách một thương hiệu có thể “nhân hóa” chính sản phẩm/dịch vụ của mình, đồng thời cho phép thương hiệu truyền tải một thông điệp hấp dẫn cho người dùng hơn là bài toán về doanh thu và lợi nhuận. Những con số chứng minh tính hiệu quả của cách quảng cáo này – được báo cáo rằng đã làm tăng giá trị của một sản phẩm hoặc dịch vụ gấp 20 lần trong những năm qua.
Thật không may, không có một tiêu chuẩn hay kịch bản chung nào có thê áp dụng cho các video kể chuyện cả. Bạn cần phải sáng tạo với lời kể của mình – luôn luôn trung thực và bám vào các giá trị gốc của thương hiệu – nhưng được truyền tải theo cách mà khách hàng của bạn sẽ hiểu và gắn kết về các giá trị cảm xúc.
Hãy lưu ý cách Airbnb sử dụng quảng cáo kể chuyện để gắn kết với người dùng: https://youtu.be/-XSAqfK_UwY
2) Sáng tạo những video ngắn
Sự ra mắt của Snapchat vào năm 2013 và sự phổ biến của nó trong những năm tiếp theo, đã chứng minh rằng xu huớng người dùng thích xem những video ngắn và có vòng đời ngắn như thế nào. Kể từ đó, các nền tảng truyền thông xã hội đã lưu ý và kết hợp tính năng này vào nền tảng của họ.
Ví dụ: Instagram Stories đã tăng thời gian dành cho Instagram tổng thể từ 15 phút lên 32 phút mỗi ngày. Điều này cho chúng ta biết rằng có một xu hướng rất rõ ràng đối với việc xem video trực tiếp so với các bài đăng thông thường. TikTok là nền tảng đã thống trị video 15s và hiện tại nó đứng đầu bảng xếp hạng về tỷ lệ giữ chân người dùng của tất cả các Ứng dụng video.
Các video có thời lượng ngắn tận dụng tốt hiệu ứng FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out – Hiệu ứng sợ bỏ lỡ). Các video này đặc biệt tạo ra cảm giác cấp bách xung quanh nội dung của bạn, khiến người xem cảm thấy như họ phải liên tục theo dõi bản cập nhật tiếp theo.
Điều quan trọng đối với người bán hàng thương mại điện tử là có một đoạn video ngắn để thu hút sự chú ý của khán giả: thu hút sự chú ý của mọi người như thể họ đang xem quảng cáo trên TV. Đừng sử dụng video dài một phút nghe giống như một bài giới thiệu công ty. Bạn chỉ nên đưa ra một hoặc hai tính năng của sản phẩm để thu hút sự tò mò của khán giả và rất-không-nên làm một loại video câu chuyện dài lê thê về mọi tính năng bạn có.
3) Sử dụng một khuôn mặt
Video tự quay đang là xu hướng của giới trẻ hiện nay, đây là cách mà người dùng ghi lại các video ngắn để gửi cho bạn bè của họ. Hàng tỷ người trên toàn thế giới sử dụng TikTok ngay bây giờ và xem hàng chục tỷ video mỗi ngày. Họ cũng dành trung bình khoảng 30 phút mỗi ngày cho ứng dụng. Người dùngTikTok phần lớn trong độ tuổi từ 18 đến 24 tuổi trong khi những người từ 25 đến 34 tuổi chiếm khoảng 30% người dùng.
Một số công ty hiện nay đã bắt kịp xu hướng, và một số thậm chí còn quay video bắt chước giao diện của video tự quay để trở nên chân thực hơn với người xem. Đó là lý do tại sao quảng cáo video phổ biến trên phương tiện truyền thông xã hội thường sử dụng quảng cáo tự quay , kể một câu chuyện hơn là làm môt bài giới thiệu dài dòng về sản phẩm.
Hình thức quảng cáo này rất hiệu quả vì nó mang lại cho người xem ấn tượng rằng họ đang được giao tiếp với nội dung. Sự chân thành và tính xác thực thực sự là hai yếu tố quan trọng đối với người tiêu dùng trong xu hướng quảng cáo hiện nay .
Tham khảo thêm video tuyệt vời này từ thương hiệu Dove: https://youtu.be/_3agBWqGfRo
B) Video Quảng cáo TikTok Trung Quốc tuyển chọn mỗi tuần:
1. Móc khóa bật lửa
Độ dài 15s
Lượt thích 479k
Lượt bình luận 37k
Lượt chia sẻ 19k
Link Video https://www.douyin.com/share/video/6795336752996371725/?mid=6747228519292226316
Sản phẩm https://haohuo.jinritemai.com/views/product/item2?id=3350851595024904376
Phân tích Bất ngờ là yếu tố khiến cho video thành công. Trong video có một cái bàn chất đầy những móc khóa với nhiều hình dạng: giày, coca-cola, ấm đun… và bất ngờ là tất cả chúng đều là bật lửa! Nếu như không muốn mua, bạn cũng có thể sẽ chia sẻ với bạn bè, đúng không nào?
2. Đất nặn
Lượt chia sẻ 34k
Link Video https://www.douyin.com/share/video/6795327370418031887/?mid=6793974346379266824
Sản phẩm https://detail.tmall.com/item.htm?id=570353850115
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Độ dài 12s
Lượt thích 265k
Lượt bình luận 17k
Lượt chia sẻ 8k
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Độ dài 13s
Lượt thích 370k
Lượt bình luận 29k
Lượt chia sẻ 16k
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Độ dài 19s
Lượt thích 292k
Lượt bình luận 55k
Lượt chia sẻ 12k
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Liên hệ với chúng tôi nếu bạn muốn tìm nguồn/nhập sỉ bất kỳ sản phẩm nào trong danh sách bên dưới (hoặc các sản phẩm khác phù hợp cho nền tảng TikTok). Ngoài ra, Chúng tôi còn cung cấp dịch vụ nghiên cứu/tìm sản phẩm theo ngành hàng hoặc theo yêu cầu của bạn.
1. Găng tay rửa chén Silicon
Giá bán lẻ 20 CNY
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Kênh bán hàng Tiktok
Lượt xem Tuần qua 223k
Số đơn hàng Tuần qua 20000
Doanh thu Tuần qua 400k CNY
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2. Giá giữ điện thoại
Giá bán lẻ 29 CNY
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Kênh bán hàng Tiktok
Lượt xem Tuần qua 185k
Số đơn hàng Tuần qua 15000
Doanh thu Tuần qua 435 CNY
Link Video https://www.douyin.com/share/video/6797597721495620875/?mid=6797547110817450765
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Giá bán lẻ 69 CNY
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Kênh bán hàng Tiktok
Lượt xem Tuần qua 176k
Số đơn hàng Tuần qua 5550
Doanh thu Tuần qua 383k CNY
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4. Móc quần áo có thể gấp gọn
Giá bán lẻ 9 CNY
Mô tả Móc quần áo có thể gấp lại vô cùng tiện dụng
Kênh bán hàng Tiktok
Lượt xem Tuần qua 109k
Số đơn hàng Tuần qua 4670
Doanh thu Tuần qua 42k CNY
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Giá bán lẻ 30 CNY
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Kênh bán hàng Tiktok
Lượt xem Tuần qua 121k
Số đơn hàng Tuần qua 3800
Doanh thu Tuần qua 114k CNY
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Giá bán lẻ 26 CNY
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Kênh bán hàng TikTok
Lượt xem Tuần qua 61k views
Số đơn hàng Tuần qua 2490 orders
Doanh thu Tuần qua 65k CNY
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Giá bán lẻ 78 CNY
Mô tả Nước hoa khô nhỏ gọn cho phái đẹp
Kênh bán hàng Taobao
Lượt xem Tuần qua 778k views
Số đơn hàng Tuần qua 43000 orders
Doanh thu Tuần qua 3354k CNY
Link Video https://www.douyin.com/share/video/6794049205255081231/?mid=6794036487421283086
8. Máy uốn tóc cầm tay
Giá bán lẻ 259 CNY
Mô tả Thiết bị uống tóc cằm tay cho phái đẹp
Kênh bán hàng Taobao
Lượt xem Tuần qua 313k views
Số đơn hàng Tuần qua 15000 orders
Doanh thu Tuần qua 3885k CNY
Link Video https://www.douyin.com/share/video/6796509069499763971/?mid=6796474926993083150
9. Chai xịt thơm miệng
Giá bán lẻ 99 CNY
Mô tả Chai xịt thơm miệng
Kênh bán hàng Taobao
Lượt xem Tuần qua 125k views
Số đơn hàng Tuần qua 15000 orders
Doanh thu Tuần qua 1485k CNY
Link Video https://www.douyin.com/share/video/6793141441490193679/?mid=6793134948531882759
10. Kệ đa năng
Giá bán lẻ 30 CNY
Mô tả Kệ đựng đồ đa dụng có bánh xe cho nhà bếp hoặc phòng khách
Kênh bán hàng Taobao
Lượt xem Tuần qua 879k
Số đơn hàng Tuần qua 20000
Doanh thu Tuần qua 600k CNY
Link Video https://www.douyin.com/share/video/6795711938220395776/?mid=6795666139054656263
Author: My DigiNation Team
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0.997317 |
The novel coronavirus strain we have come to know as COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe. While top experts say the risk to Canadians remains low, residents are on edge as new cases are diagnosed every day, including those contracted via human-to-human transmission.
The government is providing daily updates on cases and how Canada is responding, but questions still abound about how the virus is transmitted, what the symptoms are and who to call if you think you may have it.
Here’s a quick look at the basics of what you should know about the virus, what to do in case of suspected infection and how to protect yourself.
What is COVID-19?
COVID-19 originated in Wuhan, China and causes a respiratory infection.
It is a novel strain of coronavirus — part of a large family of viruses that can cause a range of illnesses from the common cold to pneumonia and bronchitis. The SARS outbreak in 2003 was also caused by a coronavirus.
The first presumptive case of infection in Ontario was identified on Jan. 25.
Latest number of cases on Ontario: COVID-19 in Ontario
How does it spread?
Coronaviruses spread mainly from person to person through close contact.
The risk of catching a severe case of the virus is higher if your immune system is compromised due to old age or chronic disease.
What are the symptoms?
Symptoms are flu-like and can range from mild to severe. They include fever, cough and difficulty breathing.
Complications from COVID-19 can result in serious conditions like pneumonia or kidney failure and in some cases, death.
Can COVID-19 be treated?
There is no specific treatment for coronaviruses and no vaccine that protects against them. Most people with common human coronavirus illnesses recover on their own.
To manage symptoms, the government recommends taking the same measures as you would with a common cold: drink plenty of fluids, get lots of rest and sleep as much as possible and try using a humidifier or take a hot shower to help with a sore throat and cough.
Who to call if you think you have the virus
Unrelated to travel:
If you develop symptoms of COVID-19, call Telehealth Ontario for medical advice at 1-866-797-0000 for medical advice. You can also contact your local public health unit. Click here to find a public health unit close to you: Public Health Units.
Be sure to tell them your symptoms and travel history including any countries you visited.
During and after travel:
If you become sick while travelling or after you get back, avoid contact with others and call Telehealth or contact your local public health unit. Tell them your symptoms, where you have been travelling or living and if you had direct contact with animals or with a sick person.
If you feel sick during your flight or upon landing, tell a flight attendant or a Canada border services agent.
After return from an affected area:
You may need to self-isolate for 14 days because you may have been exposed to COVID-19. Staying home and limiting your contact with others will help prevent further spread.
If your symptoms feel worse than a common cold and you went to an affected area within 14 days of when your symptoms began, once again, call Telehealth or contact your local public health unit and be sure to reveal your symptoms and travel history.
The locations identified as affected areas are:
China (mainland)
Hong Kong
Iran
Italy
Japan
Singapore
South Korea
How to protect yourself
Since there are no vaccines for coronaviruses, it’s essential to take some basic, everyday steps to protect yourself and prevent the spread of illness.
Wash your hands with soap and water and disinfect with alcohol based sanitizer. Watch the video below for a tutorial on how to properly wash and disinfect your hands.
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0.983463 |
Mack Brown Dave Clawson Micale Cunningham Justin Fuente Jeff Sims Brennan Armstrong Nicolas Sciba Sports Football College football College sports
More From
ACC Notre Dame Division I FBS Ind Virginia North Carolina Louisville Virginia Tech Florida State Wake Forest Georgia Tech
Notre Dame's trip to Virginia Tech, QB battle tops ACC slate
By AARON BEARD - Oct. 07, 2021 03:01 AM EDT
Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Brennan Armstrong (5) is tackled by Miami Hurricanes cornerback Tyrique Stevenson close to the end zone during the first half of a NCAA college football game, Thursday, Sept. 30, 2021, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
View All (5)
Here are things to watch in the Atlantic Coast Conference in Week 6:
GAME OF THE WEEK
No. 14 Notre Dame at Virginia Tech. The Fighting Irish (4-1) are back to football independence after a one-year stint as full ACC members amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They’re coming off a home loss to No. 5 Cincinnati and they’re set to visit Justin Fuente's Hokies (3-1), who have won all three of their home games — including a season-opening takedown of then-No. 10 North Carolina. Saturday night marks the second of five games against ACC teams for the Irish. This is the toughest matchup in the current four-game homestand for Virginia Tech, which needs wins before closing with four of five on the road.
BEST MATCHUP
Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong vs. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham. These two won’t take the field together in the afternoon game, but they’re capable of putting up big totals to grab all the attention. Armstrong leads the ACC passing (394.6 yards per game), including a program-record 554 yards in a loss at UNC. Cunningham is a two-way threat whose 10 rushing touchdowns lead the ACC and are tied for second in the Bowl Subdivision ranks..
LONG SHOT
Does Florida State have a realistic shot to win at North Carolina? The Seminoles (1-4, 1-2) finally earned a win last week by beating Syracuse on a final-play field goal. The good news for this weekend is FSU has never lost to a Mack Brown-coached UNC team in 10 games, though all but one came amid the Seminoles’ run as a national power through the 1990s during Brown’s first stint with the Tar Heels. They upset a Tar Heels team ranked No. 5 last October. The bad news is the Tar Heels (3-2, 2-2) have been dominant at home and are a 17 1/2-point favorite according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS
No. 19 Wake Forest (5-0, 3-0) is sitting atop the ACC standings entering Saturday’s trip to Syracuse with several notable early accomplishments. Dave Clawson's Demon Deacons are the highest-ranked ACC team in the AP Top 25 for the first time since September 2008. They’re 3-0 in the league for the first time since 2011 after last weekend's win against Louisville on Nick Sciba's late field goal. And they’re trying for the program’s first 6-0 start since winning the first seven in 1944 – nine years before the ACC’s inaugural season – and only the second time overall.
IMPACT PLAYER
Georgia Tech’s Jeff Sims hasn’t had an easy time as a second-year freshman but has the potential for a big outing Saturday at Duke. He missed time with an injury suffered in the season opener but returned to run for three touchdowns and pass for another in a home rout of UNC. Sims threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns in last weekend’s loss to Pittsburgh.
___
Follow Aaron Beard on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/aaronbeardap
___
More AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://twitter.com/AP_Top25. Sign up for the AP’s college football newsletter: https://apnews.com/cfbtop25
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0.91851 |
The United Nations is predicting that a record 274 million people - who together would amount to the world's fourth most-populous country - will require emergency humanitarian aid next year in countries like Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Syria and Yemen which face a raft of challenges including war, insecurity, hunger, climate change and the coronavirus pandemic.
more
02 Dec, 2021, 11.09 AM IST
Ethiopia asks U.S. to stop spreading false information on war
Kebede Dessisa, the state minister, said the U.S. government should refrain from disseminating "shameful fake news and defamation regarding Ethiopia," state broadcaster EBC reported. He referred to a U.S. embassy statement on Tuesday that urged its citizens to maintain a high level of vigilance due to "the ongoing possibility of terrorist attacks in Ethiopia."
more
25 Nov, 2021, 11.11 PM IST
Calls for ceasefire in Ethiopia grow amid deepening conflict
The US special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, arrived in Addis Ababa to press for a halt to military operations and a start to ceasefire talks. African Union Commission Chair Moussa Faki Mahamat said he met Feltman to discuss efforts towards dialogue and political solutions.
more
04 Nov, 2021, 06.54 PM IST
Boeing agrees to settle with Ethiopia Airways 737 Max crash victims
Boeing has reached an agreement with the families of the victims of a March 2019 crash in Ethiopia of one of its 737-Max aircraft. The company in the agreement accepted responsibility for the crash
more
11 Nov, 2021, 06.45 PM IST
Ethiopian civil war: Capital of Tigray region hit by new Ethiopia airstrikes
New airstrikes hit the capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region, residents said Wednesday, as video showed injured people with bloodied faces being rushed to vehicles and thick black smoke rising in the sky. Ethiopia's government said it targeted facilities to make and repair weapons, which a spokesman for the rival Tigray forces denied.
more
20 Oct, 2021, 11.22 PM IST
At rally to back military's campaign, Ethiopians denounce US govt
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration on Tuesday accused Ethiopia of "gross violations" of human rights and said it planned to remove the country from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade agreement. "Shame on you USA," read one demonstrator's placard, while another said the United States should stop "sucking Ethiopia's blood".
more
07 Nov, 2021, 06.02 PM IST
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Ethiopian civil war: Capital of Tigray region hit by new Ethiopia airstrikes
New airstrikes hit the capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region, residents said Wednesday, as video showed injured people with bloodied faces being rushed to vehicles and thick black smoke rising in the sky. Ethiopia's government said it targeted facilities to make and repair weapons, which a spokesman for the rival Tigray forces denied.
more
20 Oct, 2021, 11.22 PM IST
Rebel forces in Ethiopia's Tigray launch new offensive
The fighting -- marked by grisly massacres and widespread sexual violence -- has killed thousands of people, while the United Nations says hundreds of thousands are on the brink of famine.
more
13 Jul, 2021, 02.41 PM IST
United States cites China, Myanmar, Ethiopia in genocide report
The report said the US continues to believe that China's actions against the Uyghurs constitutes a “genocide.” That finding was first announced by former President Donald Trump's administration, as was a determination that Myanmar was engaged in “ethnic cleansing” against Rohyinga Muslims in its northern Rakhine state.
more
13 Jul, 2021, 11.07 AM IST
Saudi Arabia bans entry from UAE, Vietnam, Ethiopia and Afghanistan
The ban goes into effect on July 4 and will apply to anyone who has been in those four countries within the last 14 days, it said. Saudi citizens returning before Sunday will be exempted.
more
03 Jul, 2021, 01.44 PM IST
'Like a hell': Ethiopia airstrike survivors recall massacre
Such witness accounts are emerging after Ethiopia's military has said it was responsible for the airstrike that struck Togoga's busy marketplace on Tuesday, which health officials said killed at least 64 people and injured dozens more.
more
27 Jun, 2021, 12.42 PM IST
Lost limbs, rising anger as town is caught up in Tigray war
To the Ethiopian government, the fighters are terrorists who have defied the authority of Abiy in the federal capital, Addis Ababa. But almost everyone the AP spoke with in Hawzen supported them and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, the party of the region's ousted and now-fugitive leaders.
more
04 Jun, 2021, 04.19 PM IST
United States restricts assistance for Ethiopia over Tigray
Thousands have been killed and about 2 million people forced from their homes in Tigray after conflict erupted between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian military last November.
more
24 May, 2021, 02.24 PM IST
Fears of exploitation grow for children stranded in Ethiopia's Tigray conflict
Nearly 5,000 children have lost contact with their parents or been orphaned since fighting erupted in November, with many living in informal camps where they have no adults to care for them and limited food and shelter, Save the Children said.
more
04 May, 2021, 11.41 PM IST
COVID: Israel bans travel to India, six other countries
In a joint press release issued by the Israel Prime Minister's Office and the Health Ministry on Friday, it was said that Israelis will not be allowed to travel to Ukraine, Brazil, Ethiopia, South Africa, India, Mexico and Turkey.
more
02 May, 2021, 12.28 PM IST
A timeline of Ethiopia's Tigray conflict
Fighting begins on November 4 2020, with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordering a military response to what he calls a "traitorous" attack on federal army camps in Tigray.
more
30 Apr, 2021, 05.29 PM IST
Uganda says it has signed security agreement with Egypt amid tensions over Ethiopia dam
According to a statement by the Uganda People's Defence Forces (UPDF), the agreement was signed between UPDF's Chieftaincy of Military Intelligence (CMI) and the Egyptian Intelligence Department.
more
08 Apr, 2021, 04.13 PM IST
'Leave no Tigrayan': In Ethiopia, an ethnicity is erased
What started as a political dispute in one of Africa's most powerful countries has turned into a campaign against minority Tigrayans. The Ethiopian government of Nobel Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed is accused of teaming up with Abiy's ethnic group, his mother was Amhara, and soldiers from neighbouring Eritrea, long an enemy of Tigray's now-fugitive leaders, to punish around 6 million people.
more
07 Apr, 2021, 01.34 PM IST
The Weeknd donates $1 mn to Ethiopian relief efforts that will provide 2 mn meals
There are increasing reports of atrocities such as massacres and rapes in Ethiopia.
more
06 Apr, 2021, 03.00 PM IST
Ethiopia risks lengthy stalemate in war-hit Tigray: Report
Abiy declared victory within weeks, but combat has continued recently in central and southern Tigray, conflict-prevention group ICG said in a briefing published nearly five months after the first shots were fired.
more
02 Apr, 2021, 02.06 PM IST
Ethiopia PM says Eritrea to withdraw troops from Tigray
For months both Addis Ababa and Asmara denied Eritrean troops were in Tigray, contradicting accounts from residents, aid workers, diplomats and even some Ethiopian civilian and military officials.
more
26 Mar, 2021, 05.42 PM IST
Ethiopia's leader faces intense pressure to end Tigray war
Criticism of the conduct of government troops and their allies from neighbouring Eritrea grew after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserted Wednesday that “ethnic cleansing” has happened in parts of Tigray.
more
11 Mar, 2021, 03.04 PM IST
Eritrea's murky role in Ethiopia conflict
Soldiers from Eritrea, which borders Tigray, have been accused by residents and rights groups of massacres in several locations that figure among the worst atrocities recorded in the conflict.
more
09 Mar, 2021, 05.50 PM IST
Digital siege: Internet cuts become favoured tool of regimes
In Uganda, residents couldn't use Facebook, Twitter and other social media for weeks after a recent election. And in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, the internet has been down for months amid a wider conflict.
more
11 Feb, 2021, 02.16 PM IST
CSM Technologies wins $5.5 million deal in Ethiopia
The system is a one-stop paperless and contactless interface for investors to access land related services from land development authorities.
more
04 Feb, 2021, 11.38 AM IST
Ethiopia kills dozens allegedly behind massacre: Officials
"The Ethiopia Defence Force has destroyed 42 anti-peace forces who attacked civilians yesterday" in the Metekel zone of Benishangul-Gumuz, the regional government said in a statement.
more
24 Dec, 2020, 05.59 PM IST
Tigray forces fire rockets into neighbouring region of Ethiopia
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, unleashed a military campaign in the Tigray region on November 4 with the declared aim of unseating its ruling party, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which he accuses of defying his government and seeking to destabilise it.
more
20 Nov, 2020, 04.37 PM IST
Two airports near Ethiopia's Tigray state attacked with rockets: Government
One of the rockets hit the airport in Gondar and partially damaged it late on Friday, said Awoke Worku, spokesperson for Gondar central zone, while a second one fired simultaneously landed just outside of the airport at Bahir Dar. The government blamed the ruling party in Tigray, the Tigray People's Liberation Front.
more
14 Nov, 2020, 01.48 PM IST
Why Ethiopia is suddenly on brink of civil war
Some experts have compared the confrontation to an inter-state war, with two large and well-trained forces and little sign of backing down.
more
06 Nov, 2020, 09.01 PM IST
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0.953374 |
(CNN) -- The largest political protest in nearly a decade erupted in Malaysia's capital city, Kuala Lumpur, Saturday with riot police aiming water hoses and tear gas at thousands of protesters gathered to demand electoral reform.
Opposition parties and civic groups demonstrated against alleged fraudulent activity in the electoral process and demanded an overhaul of Malaysia's electoral commission ahead of general elections widely expected for early next year.
Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi had vowed to suppress the demonstration, and on Saturday police had erected roadblocks and ramped up security in an attempt to close down the city's center.
Nevertheless, in defiance of a government ban, between 30,000 and 40,000 demonstrators massed outside the royal palace in Kuala Lumpar, according to media reports. Opposition group leader and former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim put the number much higher, claiming more than 100,000 people had gathered in the streets.
One witness said police fired tear gas and jets of "chemically-laced water" at hundreds of demonstrators who sought refuge in the city's Jamek mosque and in commercial buildings.
"Squads of police are chasing hundreds of protesters along alleys and on the city streets," the witness said, speaking on condition of anonymity. He said blockades had been set up around the city to hem in demonstrators.
Photos of the crackdown showed protesters dressed in yellow t-shirts and head scarves shielding their heads as water from cannons blasted down on them.
New York-based Human Rights Watch slammed the rally ban and urged the government to support free speech ahead of elections expected to be called early next year.
"If Malaysia wants to count itself a democracy, it can begin by upholding constitutional guarantees of free speech and assembly. The way the system works now, only the ruling coalition can get its messages out," it said.
Human Rights Watch said Malaysian elections have been sullied by vote-buying, the use of public resources by the ruling parties and accusations of bias against the Election Commission.
Malaysia has had only one party in power since 1957.
Speaking to CNN after briefly addressing the opposition-backed rally, Anwar said "we are demanding that the (election) process be cleansed. There are no such thing as fair elections in Malaysia at the moment."
He said a memorandum detailing allegations of corruption by the commission had been handed to Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin, Malaysia's constitutional monarch.
Malaysian law stipulates the sultan must give his royal assent to the commission after it has been appointed by the government.
Opposition party leaders, including Anwar, called the mass meeting to protest alleged fraudulent activity in the electoral process.
"This was an attempt to threaten the people. But I am very proud that Malaysians were not intimidated and turned out in such great numbers and that they behaved peacefully," Anwar said.
Anwar was heir apparent to former premier Mahathir Mohamad until 1998, when he was sacked and charged for corruption and sodomy.
The sodomy conviction was overturned, but the corruption verdict was never lifted, barring him from running for political post until next year. E-mail to a friend
|
0.994393 |
The Cremaster Cycle is a series of five feature-length films, together with related sculptures, photographs, drawings, and artist's books, created by American visual artist and filmmaker Matthew Barney.
The Cremaster Cycle was made over a period of eight years (1994–2002) and culminated in a major museum exhibition organized by Nancy Spector of the Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum in New York City, which traveled to the Museum Ludwig in Cologne and the Musée d'art Moderne in Paris from 2002-03. Barney's longtime collaborator Jonathan Bepler composed and arranged the soundtracks for the films.[1] The series incorporates a multidisciplinary narrative that heavily references connections between real people, real places and real things personal to Barney himself, but are all fictionalized to some extent.
Contents
1 Overview
2 Numerical and thematic chronology
3 Availability
4 Reception
5 Further reading
6 References
7 External links
7.1 Sites
7.2 Reviews
7.3 Other
Overview[edit]
Guggenheim Museum curator Nancy Spector has described the Cremaster cycle (1994–2002) as "a self-enclosed aesthetic system."[2] The cycle includes the films as well as photographs, drawings, sculptures, and installations the artist produced in conjunction with each episode. Its conceptual departure point is the male cremaster muscle, the primary function of which is to raise and lower the testes in response to temperature. The project is filled with anatomical allusions to the position of the reproductive organs during the embryonic process of sexual differentiation: Cremaster 1 represents the most "ascended" or undifferentiated state, Cremaster 5 the most "descended" or differentiated. The cycle repeatedly returns to those moments during early sexual development in which the outcome of the process is still unknown — in Barney's metaphoric universe, these moments represent a condition of pure potentiality. As the cycle evolved over eight years, Barney looked beyond biology as a way to explore the creation of form, employing narrative models from other realms, such as biography, mythology, and geology. Barney portrays, at various points, a satyr and Gary Gilmore. Ursula Andress portrays the Queen of Chain in Cremaster 5. Norman Mailer, Patty Griffin, and Dave Lombardo portray Harry Houdini, Nicole Baker, and Johnny Cash respectively in Cremaster 2. Richard Serra and Aimee Mullins portray Hiram Abiff and Sadhbh respectively, in Cremaster 3.
Numerical and thematic chronology[edit]
4 1994
1 1995
5 1997
2 1999
3 2002
production order of the films,
compared with numerical order
While thematically the Cremaster films are chronological in the numbered order, they were not made or released in the same manner. The order in which they were made is as follows:
Film
Year
Cremaster 4 1994
Cremaster 1 1995
Cremaster 5 1997
Cremaster 2 1999
Cremaster 3 2002
The numerical order is the thematic order, while in order of production the films increased in production quality, ambition and scope, and they can alternatively be viewed in any order, as different views of a set of themes and preoccupations.
The films are significantly different in length; the longest (and last-made) is Cremaster 3, at over three hours, while the remaining four are approximately an hour each, for a total of approximately seven hours – #3 alone makes up almost half the total length of the cycle. Like Barney's other works, most of the films lack any particular dialogue with the exceptions being Cremaster 2[3] and 5, the latter of which is an opera sung in Hungarian.
An important precursor of The Cremaster Cycle is Drawing Restraint, which is also a biologically inspired multi-episode work in multiple media, also featuring the field emblem.
Availability[edit]
The full series was released in a limited series of 20 sets of DVDs, sold for at least $100,000 each, in custom packaging and as fine art, rather than mass-market movies.[4] In 2007 one disc (Cremaster 2) sold for $571,000.[5]
The films are not available on mass-market DVDs, and according to the press release for the 2010 US tour, the cycle "is Not Now Nor Will it Ever be Available on DVD".[6][7] The films are primarily available via periodic screenings.[8][9] Palm Pictures, the distributor, has continued to comply with Barney's request, and has not made the series available on DVD, though there were some rumors and announcements to this effect in 2003.[10][11] Only a 31-minute excerpt, the Guggenheim scene from Cremaster 3 entitled “The Order,” was released on mass-market DVD in 2003.
Marti Domination as Goodyear in Cremaster 1
Matthew Barney as the Entered Apprentice in Cremaster 3
Reception[edit]
Reaction to the cycle is sharply divided – some consider it a major work of art, on a par with Un Chien Andalou and The Waste Land,[12] while others dismiss it as vapid, self-indulgent tedium.[13] This is summarized by one critic as "Barney's cinematic art inspires both awe and revulsion, often simultaneously." Indeed, the Village Voice featured two reviews, with art critic Jerry Saltz praising the cycle, and film critic J. Hoberman panning it.
Lavish praise includes: "The Cremaster Cycle by Matthew Barney is the first truly great piece of cinema to be made in a fine art context since Dali and Bunuel filmed Un Chien Andalou in 1929. It is one of the most imaginative and brilliant achievements in the history of avant-garde cinema."[12] In 1999, when three of its entries (the fourth, first, and fifth) had been made, Michael Kimmelman of The New York Times hailed Barney as "the most important American artist of his generation."[14] It has also, on the other hand, received scathing criticism as "a mostly tedious succession of striking but vacant imagery whose effect diminishes the longer you look at it," from which "any sense of mystery or wonder is drained."[13]
The visuals are roundly praised, however, and some (Hoberman) feel that the movies work well as parts of installations, due to visuals, though not as movies, due to poor editing and pacing.
Further reading[edit]
The large volume by then Guggenheim curator Nancy Spector, Matthew Barney: The Cremaster Cycle (New York: Guggenheim Museum Publications, 2002), is the standard work on the Cycle and contains reproductions of production stills, concept drawings and an exegetical essay by Spector, Only The Perverse Fantasy Can Still Save Us. Neville Wakefield has produced The Cremaster Glossary, which is also included in the book.
References[edit]
^ Matthew Barney: The Cremaster Cycle
^ Sex, life and video games; Matthew Barney. The Economist [US], 8 Mar. 2003.
^ Cremaster 2 Synopsis
^ Cremaster 2 On Sale at Sotheby's New York, October 25, 2007
^ Cremaster 2 Fetches Half a Million Dollars, November 16, 2007
^ Cremaster Cycle U.S. Theatrical Release This Spring, Tuesday, March 30, 2010
^ Epic masterwork is not now nor will it ever be available on DVD, Chicago Art Magazine
^ Cremaster Fanatic: FAQs
^ Cremaster Screenings – often years out of date
^ DVD Talk CREMASTER CYCLE 1-5 from Palm Pictures 9/16???
^ The Cremaster Cycle – Palm Pictures, archived from the original on 2003-08-02
^ a b (Jones 2002)
^ a b (Uhlich 2010)
^ Kimmelman, Michael (October 10, 1999). "The Importance of Matthew Barney". Retrieved November 15, 2016.
External links[edit]
Sites[edit]
The Cremaster Cycle
Cremaster Fanatic – The Matthew Barney Fan Site
Cremaster 1 at IMDb
Cremaster 2 at IMDb
Cremaster 3 at IMDb
Cremaster 4 at IMDb
Cremaster 5 at IMDb
Reviews[edit]
Metacritic: Cremaster 3
Metacritic: Cremaster Cycle
Jones, Jonathan (2002-10-16), "The myth-maker", The Guardian
The Cremaster Cycle, Peter Bradshaw, The Guardian, 17 October 2003
Uhlich, Keith (20–26 May 2010), "The Cremaster Cycle", Time Out New York (764), archived from the original on July 28, 2010
Man vs. 'Cremaster': The 10-Hour Test, by John Rockwell, March 23, 2003
Cults of Personality, J. Hoberman, Mar 11 2003, Village Voice
Swept Away: On Still Being Smitten With Matthew Barney, by Jerry Saltz, Feb 25 2003, Village Voice
The Cremaster Cycle at IFC: Matthew Barney exposes his films again, Nathan Lee, May 18, 2010, Village Voice
Cremaster works, OFFOFFOFF film review, David N. Butterworth
Time Out Film Guide
The Cremaster Cycle (2002), Movie Gazette – brief synopsis and review
Other[edit]
"I DIE DAILY: The Making of Matthew Barney's Cremaster Cycle", Feature Documentary—by Matthew Wallin
Guggenheim Cremaster Cycle – Arts Curriculum Lessons Online
"Occupying the Space of Possibility: Matthew Barney's Cremaster Cycle"—by Daniel Read
Holden, Stephen. "Cremaster 3 (2002) FILM REVIEW; Racing Dead Horses. Dental Torture. The Usual.." The New York Times. May 15, 2002.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=The_Cremaster_Cycle&oldid=1041464712"
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0.999963 |
Hypertension is a disease characterized by high blood pressure. Without proper treatment it can lead to serious complications, such as heart problems. To get rid of hypertension with lifestyle changes and using medications.
Related articles:
How to get rid of hypertension
How to get rid of high pressure forever
How to cure hypertension forever
How to remove high blood pressure quickly
Instruction
1
One of the main causes of hypertension is stress. This condition is often accompany people in difficult life situations. However, stress does not impact directly on blood pressure, it's all about the human response to it. Attempt to cope with a stressful situation by using excessive amounts of junk food and alcohol has a decisive effect on the body. Try to avoid stressful situations or, at least, minimize their negative effect. If to cope with stress yourself, you can not ask for consultation to psychotherapists.
2
Direct impact on the development of hypertension has a salt. Its consumption leads to an increase in the amount of moisture in the blood vessels, resulting in increased pressure. Try to limit daily salt intake by 4 grams. To do this, prepare yourself as often as possible. So you will be able to monitor the consumption of the substance. Less order ready-made dishes. Salt is found in many foods. When visiting stores, be sure to read the package. Look for products in which salt is replaced by natural spices and herbs.
3
Adjust your diet plan. Increase intake of fruits and vegetables, try to minimize the share of saturated and total fat, and cholesterol. Diet for hypertension is of particular importance. With the right preparation, the condition can be greatly improved within a few weeks. Besides fruits and vegetables, eat more lean meat, fish, poultry, whole grains, nuts and seeds with a high content of fiber, magnesium and potassium.
4
A great way to cure hypertension is to get rid of excess weight. Excess weight puts pressure on the heart causing it to work harder to satiate with blood the excess tissue. Try to get rid of this problem if you have it. Try eating more often but in smaller quantities. Do not use drugs for weight loss without consulting your doctors, this may exacerbate hypertension.
5
Another cause of hypertension is alcohol. Its excessive consumption is causing a lot of problems, including high blood pressure. Refrain from drinking or at least consume it in moderation, go while less strong ones, such as red wine. If you are treating hypertension with pills, in any case do not mix them with alcohol. This can lead to serious complications.
6
At excessive increase of pressure or chronic hypertension consult a doctor. You may be prescribed special medications or their combination. Such drugs include, for example:
beta - blockers reduce the intensity of the heartbeat;
- calcium channel blockers expands the arteries;
- diuretics, displays the body of excess water and salt.
All these drugs have a very strong effect. Use them strictly on prescription and follow the instructions on the application.
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ENIL – European Network on Independent Living | Meet Pilar O'Connor, Valencia (Spain) - ENIL - European Network on Independent Living Meet Pilar O'Connor, Valencia (Spain) - ENIL - European Network on Independent Living
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Meet Pilar O’Connor, Valencia (Spain)
Although my surname might make you think that I am Irish, I was born in Valencia (Spain) forty-nine years ago. I spent most life in a small town on the Mediterranean coast until I moved to the city where I am living now and that is the same city where I was born. I share a flat with my brother but I have a free and independent life thanks to two personal assistants that help me 24/7. I am not married or in a relationship nor have children. Recession and family matters forced me to close down the personal assistance and baby sitting business that I had been running for five years. I also worked as a script writer for radio stations and as classical music critic for specialised magazines. I wrote a play for children that have been performed in some Spanish cities.
What is your personal experience of disability?
I have never had the chance to live without disability. My wheelchair and I have always been a team. When I was a child I wasn’t aware of my condition. I never questioned why one of my friends had to push my wheelchair when we were playing hide and seek or why I always had to grab one of the ends of the skipping rope while my sister played. I only felt like a weirdo when people on the street stopped, turned back and stared at me. Living in a very small town wasn’t easy. People there thought that being wheelchair bound meant being “a poor little ill girl” or, even worse, “a poor little retarded girl”. My mother taught me to stick my tongue out at the staring people. That was my first vindicative action.
When I grew up I saw my life in an other way and, for some years, I felt different. Sometimes your family builds walls around you, fearing you can be hurt, to keep you safe from suffering. That was my case. They didn’t realise it is better to feel and to lose than to never have known a feeling. I lived in a golden cage and I was afraid of the future. Fortunately, I met people who opened my eyes to the things I could do, bringing fresh air and new thoughts into my life. I changed.
My mother’s death compelled me to independent living and, what seemed like it would be free fall, was, in fact, free fly.
I learnt to do things by myself, to take decisions. I didn’t have the help of my family anymore and it was me, the dependant person, who had to look after my father at the end of his life. The roles had been reversed.
I can’t say I have an easy life. It’s really hard sometimes with ups and downs but I think that I am lucky, kind of lucky, for having the chance to do things that, in principle, I wasn’t entitled to do: Studying, working… To carry out an independent life. I am commited to making both possible and natural to other people in my condition, to enjoy the things I have enjoyed by a stroke of luck.
How did you discover the Independent Living movement?
Some members of Foro de Vida Independiente came to my personal assistance business; Mámen Nájera, Juan Benages… Juan asked me to attend an international meeting about independent life that was held here in Valencia. Meeting people like me, struggling to have decent a life, was an impressive experience.
Is there an area of Independent Living that you are especially interested in?
Personal assistance and not only due to my work also to my own experience. I wouldn’t be able to do the things I do without my personal assistants’ help. Thanks to them I am a free person. I would like that every person with functional diversity had the right to be helped in their daily life by the people they chose and not by people that someone imposed to them. I want people that think personal assistance is a decent job, that don’t consider us ill, that we can get on with; people who are our hands and our legs but that are not our brains.
Who has influenced you the most, and how?
My mother. Although she was over protective, she raised me to have an independent life and did her best so that I could study. She never listened to those who said it wasn’t worth I had an education.
What personal achievement are you most proud of?
I am very proud of being able to have my own life, independent from my family. I am really proud to be myself!
Do you have a favorite saying or proverb?
Be yourself, no matter what they say
What motivates you to get up in the morning?
People I love.
What do you like to do when you’re not working?
Write poetry and short stories, study English, listen to music, socialise with my friends, go to the cinema, walk my dogs. If the verb “To internet” existed, it would be the best option to describe what I do in the cold winter evenings.
If you could invite anyone to a dinner party, who would be your ideal guests?
Witty and funny people to talk and share with. Hugh Laurie, Robbie Williams. Cesar Millán (The dog whisperer) to control my three noisy dogs while we were having dinner, Boris Izaguirre, a good chef like Jamie Oliver or Darío Barrio to make the dinner and, especially, my best friends.
What advice would you give to young adults with a disability?
They have to delete the word “disability” from their mind;. everybody is disabled in some way. If, in his day, Carl Lewis had been compared with 99.9 per cent of the World’s population, this 99.9 per cent of would have been considered disabled compared to him, from those who were in a wheelchair to those who, on an atlethics race, couldn’t catch up with him. Like everyone, there are things that we can do and things we cannot but that doesn’t make us less abled in life.
They shouldn’t hide or be sheltered by their families. Family is a big support and help but we are not eternal babies. They have to be visible in society, fight for their rights and protest again injustice.
Enjoy what they have been given and don’t think about what they have been denied.
Spanish version
2 Comments
tonis kanaris
August 2, 2011, 7:03 am
very good comments in general, but plz inform who pays for the 2 assistants? herself or some EU programe?, need to know SINE I NEED a SECOND assistant
i became disable in a car accident in 2005 at the age of 52 untill then i lead a full life as a TV journalist, i never married today i run a small medical tourism company that SENDS PEOPLE IN INDIA FOR TRATMENT in order to get back to normal thru ,dificult boneand other operations, rehab,etc also infertility, eye problems and many many other medical problems. INDIA IS A CHEAP MEDICAL PARADISE, had in not been for INDIA i would still be in bed, full time thank god they succesfully operated on me and made me walk 67 months after the accident that left me with hemiplegia of my left side, SO FAR I’VELEARNED NOT TO GIVE UP, SURRENDER thats why i refuse to use an electric wheelchair. thats all, i hope havent bored u and truly hope, to meet some of u in one of these independant living conferences, that i intent to participate bye for now. TONIS
Pilar O'Connor
August 2, 2011, 8:15 pm
Hello Tonis,
This is Pilar O’Connor replying you. Thank you for reading my role model. You ask who pay for my two assistants and the sad answer is that I have to pay myself for them. I don’t have any specifical help for personal assistance from the Spanish government or the EU. I have a disability allowance of 500 Euros by month and that’s all. This amount doesn’t cover the salaries of 2 personal assistants and I’m paying them thanks to the money my parents saved along their lives and left me when they passed away. I am a lucky one because most of disabled people in my country can’t have 24/7 personal assistance and, if they don’t have a family who support them, they have to be institutionalised with the subsequent lack of freedom that this fact implies.
You didn’t bore me and I am sure you didn’t bore neither any of the ENIL members who read your post, quite the opposite, we are glad you are interested in Independant Living. Keep on being a fighter Tonis, don’t give up and who knows if we would meet someday in a Independant Living conference as you wish.
Cheers,
Pilar
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This website is supported by the European Union, Justice Programme and Rights, Equality and Citizenship Programme – Framework Partnership Agreements 2015-2017, priority: Rights of Persons with Disabilities, Specific Grant Agreement n. VS/2015/0185. This programme is implemented by the European Commission, Directorate General: Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion. It was established to financially support the implementation of the objectives of the European Union in the employment, social affairs and equal opportunities area, and thereby contribute to the achievement of the Europe 2020 Strategy goals in these fields. The seven-year Programme targets all stakeholders who can help shape the development of appropriate and effective employment and social legislation and policies, across the EU-27, EFTA-EEA and EU candidate and pre-candidate countries.
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0.990385 |
What is romantic relationship? Romantic relationship means different things to different people. Basically, it is just a romantic relationship that entails psychological and physical intimacy. Although a romantic romance is mostly typically a sex relationship, it can be a not for sexual romance as well.
A proper romantic relationship means having shared understanding and compassion for one another. Additionally, it means that you and your lover have the ability to accept one another the way in which that you are. It also means that you have control of yourself , nor allow outside sources, including work, to deface your relationships liberty. In other words, a nutritious relationship delivers freedom.
Healthful romantic interactions often times involve communication. You and your partner must be able to converse your needs to each other. You must please talk about anything at all in hopes of eradicating any uncertainty and to get solutions to challenges. You and your companion should create your confidence on each other plus the love you may have for one one other. It is important that you both have this feeling to ensure that your romantic relationship will not end on the incorrect note.
Healthful romantic romantic relationships often times require interpersonal interaction and bargain. In these romances, both partners learn to converse their needs to one another. These romances also tend to have good restrictions where a single partner does not rule the different, and they also are a crew, putting aside mail order brides reviews variations in favor of working together for a common aim.
Healthy intimate relationships tend to have realistic anticipations, where the associates recognize that they have different personality traits and strong points, but still look after and dignity one another. This is why, two people so, who are in love are able to compromise individual differences and understand one another. In these types of relationships, compromise is known as a way of creating a better romantic relationship and relatives.
In conclusion, healthy romantic relationships are made from honest interaction between two people who figure out each other folks emotions and get confidence in each other. It also requires a wide range of compromise by both partners. Where a single partner would like something, the other partner quite often tries to give it to them because they care about the outcome. They are the characteristics which make a healthy partnership.
On the other hand, detrimental romantic romances involve chicanery with the outcomes. When a marriage is poor, one or equally partners carry out not communicate their needs to each other and, one or equally partners are not able to recognize or perhaps respect the other’s needs and personal preferences. The result is that the relationship lacks a good ground wherever compromise can be performed. In these types of relationships, one partner might always seem to be in control as the other partner will always get their approach. When this happens, you will discover very low chances that the partner will pay attention to what the different wants or needs.
Affectionate relationships need compromise, visibility, and integrity. However , a few problems could be prevented right from happening if the couple normally takes the time to understand each other’s personality and their own needs, as well as how to put it into words. When problems appear, both companions will need to talk factors out and work it together to create a healthy and happy romance that each will enjoy.
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0.998945 |
My bidget is pretty tight, max of 400$ i know getting a new one makes no sense with this kind of budget.
So First is should i buy a used or should i save some more and buy a new one
After reading some of the threads i were looking at Nikon D40 and Pentax k100 prices.
Thanks in advance for you help
Sponsored Links
Aug 26, 2007, 10:03 PM #2
TCav
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Washington, DC, Metro Area, Maryland
Posts: 13,826
There's the Pentax K100D that B&H has for $399.95 (with the $50 mail-in rebate, that's $349.95) plus a Pentax 28-80mm f/3.5-5.6 for $69.95. That adds up to $419.90, not counting shipping & handling, tax,or postage for the mail-in rebate.
If you can scrape together a few dollars more, you can get another lens.
If you don't mind getting a used dSLR, KEH.com has some Olympus E-300s for about $300. Unfortunately, their used Pentax dSLRs cost more than a new K100D after the rebate.
Aug 26, 2007, 10:24 PM #3
venkatesht3
Junior Member
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 4
Thanks a lot for your advice, in this case i can go for a new one, just wanted to know if Pentax k100d would be a better choice than Nikon 40 D??
Aug 27, 2007, 12:24 AM #4
Corpsy
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 879
They're both very good cameras, but they each have their own benefits and drawbacks.
The biggest advantages of the Pentax K100D are it's built-in stabilization which helps in low light and especially at longer focal lengths, and it's ability to support older Pentax lenses which is nice if you already have some from an old SLR, but the prices have gone up quite a bit and it's getting hard to get good deals on used ones.
A drawback of the K100D is it's small frame buffer which restricts bursts to 7 shots when shooting JPG, and only 3 when shooting RAW. For regular shooting this usually isn't too bad, but for sports and other action shots it can be frustrating. Also, the camera does not do any noise reduction except on long exposures, so JPGs shot at higher ISO are noisier than on most other DSLRs. If you shoot RAW however, this is not an issue. You could also do the noise reduction on the computer yourself afterwards using a program like Noise Ninja which would probably look even better than the Nikon JPGs out-of-camera, but typically this is even more time consuming than processing RAW images.
The advantages of the Nikon D40 are it's excellent processing for JPGs, and the quality of the lenses available for it.
The most major drawback of the D40 is it's lack of a focus motor which means there's a limited number of lenses that will autofocus on the camera. Also, it only has 3 focus points and no top LCD (the one with just simple info like settings and shots left).
Between the two, I generally recommend the D40 because I feel it produces higher quality JPGs than the Pentax (at least at higher ISO), and because I think the lens selection on a budget is probably a bit better for the average consumer. In particular, I'd at the 18-135mm kit lens which I've read is very nice and provides a very versatile range, but perhaps some would dispute how good it is.
If it sounds like I'm being a bit harsh with the K100D, it's definitely not because I don't think it's a nice camera, I just think the average person would have an easier time getting high quality images from the Nikon. If you like shooting RAW though, and you think the stabilizer is very important, then Pentax has the advantage which is why that's the one I own.
Aug 27, 2007, 12:53 AM #5
mtclimber
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Oregon, USA
Posts: 18,143
Corpsy has given you an excellent, honest answer-
I agree with what he has said. if your budget could be increased a bit to $550 or $600, that would give you a better start with a DSLR.
Sarah Joyce
Aug 27, 2007, 7:07 AM #6
TCav
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Washington, DC, Metro Area, Maryland
Posts: 13,826
I agree with Corpsy's assessment of your choices. He brought up the limited availability of lenses for the D40, and I'd like to elaborate on that. The Pentax has a very good selection of fast (large aperture) wide angle to medium telephoto lenses, but th eNikon has a better selection of telephoto lenses.
It really comes down to what you'll be shooting whether 'this feature' might be better for you and 'that feature' won't help you at all.
And, of course, a lot depends on how the camera feels in your hands. If you can't find the appropriate controls when you need them, then you'll miss shots you might otherwise have framed or even sold.
Aug 27, 2007, 7:09 AM #7
venkatesht3
Junior Member
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 4
Thanks a lot for your replies, Corpsy that was very clear reply was wondering what to do, i would now wait and buy a D40, thanks
Aug 27, 2007, 12:32 PM #8
mtclimber
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Oregon, USA
Posts: 18,143
I really do think that is a good decision. Even to just get started with a DSLR, you will need between $(US) 550.00 and $(US) 600.00. BTW there are over 40 lenses now available for the Nikon D-40 and more are being added all the time.
Sarah Joyce
Aug 27, 2007, 9:55 PM #9
venkatesht3
Junior Member
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 4
Thanks for the help, very soon i will be getting one
Aug 30, 2007, 12:15 PM #10
Highway
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 172
venkatesht3 wrote:
Quote:
Thanks for the help, very soon i will be getting one
You won't be disapointed, I love mine.
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0.999995 |
¿Qué tal? Espero que estés teniendo una muy buena semana. Por mi parte, estoy tomando mucho café por las mañanas y escuchando música a todas horas para poder llegar al viernes. Aquí en Londres aún estamos confinados (todo está cerrado excepto los supermercados), hace mucho frío y siento que se me está acabando la poca batería que cargué en el verano 😅 la música definitivamente me ayuda a mantener el buen ánimo y a cargar mis baterías.
Por ello, me alegra contarte que tenemos una súper promoción en Lenovo: ¡nos hemos aliado con Amazon para ofrecerte un período de prueba de 3 meses de Amazon Music Unlimited! 🎶🎶
Detalles de la promo:
Durante el período de prueba, tendrás acceso a 60 millones de canciones, sin publicidades y podrás cambiar de canciones todas las veces que quieras. Además, podrás escuchar una gran variedad de podcasts y la posibilidad de seguir escuchando tu música aún estando offline 🎧
Esta promoción está disponible para todos los clientes nuevos y existentes de Lenovo que ya tengan una laptop o una tablet Lenovo o que hayan comprado una recientemente, siempre y cuando no hayas disfrutado de un período de prueba de Amazon Music en los últimos 12 meses.Para acceder a la promo solo tienes que seguir este enlace.
La promoción está disponible en una gran variedad de países, incluyendo a España, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama y Perú.
Si ya estás disfrutando de la promoción, ¿cual es tu grupo o artista favorito en este momento? ¿qué canción me recomiendas para recargar baterías?
Un abrazo,
Paty
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Grimaltos
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07-04-21 19:15
Pues probareos...gracias!
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Dreamwalker
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08-04-21 18:37
Uy, uy, uuuy, esto para un melómano como yo es oro puro 😍
Mil gracias 🙌
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Bender
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09-04-21 12:34
Pues estaría genial disponer de 3 meses gratis
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Yisus20
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10-04-21 12:56
Muchas gracias! Como además se me suma el mes gratis de prueba, tengo 4 meses!
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apolo
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10-04-21 15:50
¡Vaya detallazo, gracias! Probado y funciona, mosquea un poco porque el email que manda Amazon es de una prueba de 30 días. Pero eso es el mes gratis de Amazon que da a todo el mundo y se supone que los siguientes tres meses se renueva la suscripción a 0.00 euros con motivo de la promo. Así que son cuatro meses en total para quien le aplique el mes de prueba también 🤗
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Kramer
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19-04-21 04:31
Sería una pasada conseguirlo. Buena promo, si señor!!
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LilySensei (Paty)
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06-05-21 12:37
@Dreamwalker ¿qué tipo de música escuchas?
Nos encantaría que nos recomendaras música en este post 🎵
→ ¿Aún no te has registrado? > Hazlo aquí 🎅
→ Si tienes alguna pregunta, mándame un mensaje privadoaquí🤔
→ Participa y gánate una copia de Call of Duty: Vanguard: haz clic aquí
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Dreamwalker
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06-05-21 13:32
@Paty no tengo un género muy definido porque escucho música según mi estado anímico aunque pensándolo bien... Mmmm 🤔 suelo escuchar bastantes OST de películas, me apasiona el cine, así que lo que más escucho suelen ser OST, sí.
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LilySensei (Paty)
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06-05-21 14:26
@Dreamwalker me has dado una gran idea para el off-topic 🤔😉
Hablando de bandas sonoras, la música de esta escena y la escena en sí me siempre me hacen un nudo en la garganta (a partir del segundo 0:55)
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Legion Community Terms and Conditions
Last updated 19th February 2021
Welcome to Legion Community (“Legion Community” or the “Platform") - powered by Standing on Giants*- an online communication platform operated by Lenovo (the “Client”).
Legion Community enables its registered users (the “Users") to post and share content, such as information about Lenovo products, services, events, social media activity and videos ("Content”) to the Platform.
Legion Community is provided by Lenovo through the services of Standing on Giants subject to these Terms (“Terms”). We reserve the right to amend these Terms at any time and without notice. If we amend the Terms, we will post the amended Terms on this page and indicate at the top of the page the date the Terms were last revised. Your continued use of the Platform after any such changes constitutes your acceptance of the new Terms.
By accessing or using Legion Community you signify that you have read, understood, and agree to be bound by these Terms. If you do not agree, then you should not access or use the Platform.
Lenovo’s decision in relation to any aspect of Legion Community and these Terms is final and binding.
Your Use of Legion Community Platform
ELIGIBILITY. This Program is open to Participants who are age 18 years or older at the time of entry. This Program is not open to: (1) employees or internally contracted vendors of [Client] or its parent/subsidiaries, agents or affiliates; (2) the immediate family members or members of the same household of any such employee or vendor; (3) anyone professionally involved in the development or administration of this Program; (4) employees or internally contracted vendors of governments and government-affiliated companies or organizations; or (5) any employee whose employer's guidelines or regulations do not allow entry in the Program. This Program is open to residents of Italy, Spain, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa. This Program is void in any other country and where otherwise prohibited or restricted by law.
HOW TO PARTICIPATE. To participate in the Program, visit accurately and truthfully complete the online registration form, agree to the terms and conditions of this Agreement, and follow the other instructions at the website listed above.
REWARDS. Subject to the terms and conditions of this Agreement, and once confirmed by [Client], Participants will be able to accrue “points” that can be redeemed for reward(s). Rewards will be featured at various price points and in limited quantities.
The approximate retail values of rewards are subject to change based on current market conditions at the time of reward redemption. Participants are not entitled to any surplus between actual retail value (ARV) of a reward and stated ARV and any difference between stated ARV and actual value of the reward will not be awarded. No substitution, assignment, transfer, or cash redemption of any reward is allowed. Lenovo reserves the right to substitute a reward with another reward of equal or greater value should the advertised reward become unavailable for any reason. If applicable, rewards may be fulfilled in the form of voucher(s), coupon(s) and/or gift card(s) in Lenovo’s sole discretion. If a Participant is unable to participate in or accept a reward or any portion of a reward for any reason, Lenovo shall have no further obligation to such Participant. Lenovo will not replace any lost or stolen rewards after redemption by Participants. In no event will Lenovo be responsible for fulfilling more than the stated number of rewards. Participants acknowledge and agree that rewards are available in limited quantities and reward type and availability are subject to change at Lenovo’s sole discretion. Lenovo shall have no obligation or liability to Participants for any changes made to reward type or availability.
Subject to your compliance with these Terms, Lenovo grants you a non-exclusive, non-transferable, limited right to access and use the Platform only for your personal, informational, and non-commercial use. You agree not to interrupt or attempt to interrupt the operation of the Platform in any way or circumvent or attempt to circumvent any security feature of the Platform. Your use of the information and Content available on the Platform is subject to the following restrictions:
You must not modify or remove any and all copyright, trademark or other proprietary notices contained in the Content.
You must not modify the Content in any way or reproduce or publicly display, perform, or distribute or otherwise use the Content for any commercial purpose.
No title or ownership rights in the Content or any intellectual property rights therein are transferred to you under these Terms. You may never use another user's account without the permission of that user. When creating your account, you must provide accurate and complete information and you must keep your account password secure. You must notify Lenovo immediately of any breach of security or unauthorised use of your account. Lenovo will not be liable for any and all losses caused by any unauthorised use of your account
You agree not to collect or harvest any personal data from the Platform including any personally identifiable information such as but not limited to account names, nor to use the communication systems provided by the Platform for any commercial solicitation purposes. You agree not to use any portion of the Platform as a destination linked from any unsolicited bulk messages or unsolicited commercial messages.
Your Content Posted or Linked to Legion Community
Lenovo allows you to submit posts or link content to Legion Community, including photos, images, videos, sounds, comments, links, tweets, likes, and other materials. A Legion Community moderator will moderate all posts after publication. Lenovo reserves the right to remove user’s content that it considers to be irrelevant to the purpose of the platform, or that it considers violates any of these Terms. Lenovo may also post or link to the Platform any of your Content that you make available to Lenovo for the Platform. You are solely responsible for your Content that is posted or linked to the Platform and Lenovo accepts no liability for your Content.
You grant Lenovo and other users of the Platform a non-exclusive, royalty-free, transferable, sub-licensable, worldwide license to use, store, display, reproduce, modify, create derivative works of, perform, publish, re-post, re-tweet, and distribute your Content on or in connection with the Platform.
You represent and warrant that you have all rights necessary in your Content for it to be on or available from the Platform, and that the posting and use of your Content on or through the Platform does not violate, misappropriate or infringe on the rights of any third party, including, without limitation, privacy rights, publicity rights, copyrights, trademark and/or other intellectual property rights. You further represent and warrant to the extent there are links on the Platform to your Content that is hosted on third party websites, such linking is permitted by the terms of service of any such third party websites. You agree to comply with all laws, rules and regulations applicable to your use of the Platform and your Content, including but not limited to copyright laws.
You agree that your Content will not include any violent, discriminatory, unlawful, infringing, hateful, defamatory, derogatory, harassing, pornographic or obscene photos, text, images, messages, references, content or other materials. In addition, your Content will not be confidential or proprietary, and Lenovo will have no confidentiality obligation regarding your Content.
You agree that Lenovo is only acting as a passive conduit for your online distribution and publication of your Content. Lenovo does not have any obligation to review your Content, and therefore does not guarantee the accuracy, integrity, or quality of all user Content and we cannot assure you that harmful, inaccurate, deceptive, offensive, threatening, defamatory, unlawful, or otherwise objectionable Content will not appear on the Platform. Lenovo is not responsible for any public display or misuse of your Content. Lenovo does however reserve the right to remove, exclude or modify your Content for any reason, at its discretion, including any Content that Lenovo believes violates these Terms or other applicable policies. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES WILL LENOVO BE LIABLE TO YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY IN ANY WAY FOR ANY CONTENT POSTED ON OR MADE AVAILABLE THROUGH A SITE BY YOU OR ANY OTHER USER.
Lenovo may reward points for certain activities on the Platform, including (but not limited to) sharing posts, creating posts and entering competitions. Subject to availability, Lenovo reserves the right at any time to amend, modify or retract any points, rewards or prizes earned on the Platform. You accept that Lenovo will not enter into any correspondence regarding the awarding of points or rewards and Lenovo is entitled to grant or revoke rewards at their discretion. The decision of Lenovo in relation to all aspects of this programme is final and binding.
Data Privacy and Security
Lenovo will communicate with you via email or push notifications (including via the Standing on Giants platform), about Legion Community related notices changes to features of Legion Community and any notices required by law, in lieu of communication by postal mail.. If required by law, we will ask you for consent before sending you marketing emails. Please note that you may unsubscribe to general marketing emails at any time using the link provided in the emails. You understand that your data may be shared with other Lenovo entities and trusted third parties with a contractual relationship with Lenovo solely in connection with Legion Community
Please read our Data Privacy Policy for more information on our privacy and security practices.
Representations and Warranties
You represent and warrant that:
(a) You will abide by and comply with these Terms;
(b) Your Content and Lenovo’s use thereof as contemplated by these Terms and the Platform will not infringe any rights of any third party, including but not limited to any intellectual property rights, privacy rights, and rights of publicity;
(c) You have the full power and authority to enter into these Terms and to the extent that any entity is bound hereby, to bind such entity, these Terms, and performance of obligations under these Terms do not and will not violate any other agreement to which you or such entity is a party; and
(d) You will comply with all applicable laws and regulations, including but not limited to those set forth in these Terms.
Compliance
When using Legion Community, you will comply with all applicable laws and regulations, and all terms of use and similar rules concerning your use of any Social Media Outlet or other third party publishing platform.
Upon our request made to you from time to time, you will cooperate with us and allow us access to your systems, communications, and records solely in connection with determining your compliance with these Terms.
Visiting Third Party Websites
The Platform may contain links to third party websites, advertisers, products, services, offers, or other events or activities that are not owned or controlled by Lenovo. Lenovo does not assume any responsibility for any such third party sites, information, materials, products, services or offers. If you access any third party website, product, service, or content from the Platform, you do so at your own risk and you agree that Lenovo will have no liability arising from your use of or access to any third party website, product, service, or content.
Trademarks and Ownership of Intellectual Property
Lenovo™, the Lenovo logo, and certain other product names and phrases are trademarks or service marks of Lenovo in the U.S. and/or other countries. The absence of a trademark or service mark designation next to a product or service name or logo belonging to Lenovo anywhere on the Platform does not constitute a waiver of Lenovo’s trademark or other intellectual property rights concerning that name or logo used or referenced on the Platform.
The Platform contains content owned or licensed by Lenovo ("Lenovo Content"). Lenovo Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret and other laws, and, as between you and Lenovo, Lenovo owns and retains all copyright, trademark, trade secret, patent and other intellectual property rights in and to Lenovo Content and the Platform (the “Intellectual Property”). Lenovo reserves all rights in the Lenovo Content and Intellectual Property not expressly granted in these Terms. Lenovo does not permit the use of the Lenovo Content or its Intellectual Property in advertising, as an endorsement for any product or service, or for any other purpose, commercial or otherwise, without the prior express written permission of Lenovo.
Termination
You may terminate use of the Platform at any time for any reason (in other words, un-register). Lenovo may terminate or suspend your right to use the Platform at any time, with or without cause or notice to you. Lenovo may terminate the Platform at any time without notice. Upon termination, all licenses and other rights granted to you in these Terms will immediately cease. Following termination, Lenovo may retain your Content for a commercially reasonable period of time for backup, archival, or audit purposes. Furthermore, Lenovo and its other users may retain and continue to use, store, display, reproduce, modify, create derivative works of, perform, and distribute any of your Content that other users have stored or shared through the Platform.
Indemnification
You agree to defend, indemnify and hold harmless Lenovo and its employees, officers, affiliates and agents from and against any claims, liabilities, damages, losses, and expenses, including without limitation, reasonable attorney's fees and costs, arising out of or in any way connected with any of the following: (i) Your Content or your misuse of the Platform; (ii) your breach or alleged breach of these Terms; (iii) your violation of any third party right, including without limitation, any intellectual property right, publicity, confidentiality, property or privacy right; (iv) your violation of any laws, rules, regulations, codes, statutes, ordinances or orders of any governmental authorities, including, without limitation, all regulatory, administrative and legislative authorities; or (v) any misrepresentation made by you. You will cooperate as reasonably requested by Lenovo with respect to any such claim. Lenovo reserves the right to assume control of the defence or settlement of any such claim, and you will not in any event settle any such claim without the prior written consent of Lenovo.
Governing Law
These Terms are governed by the laws of England.
Entire Agreement; Severability
These Terms, together with Lenovo’s Data Privacy Policy and any amendments and any additional agreements you may enter into with Lenovo in connection with the Platform, shall constitute the entire agreement between you and Lenovo concerning the Platform. If any provision of these Terms is deemed invalid, then that provision will be limited or eliminated to the minimum extent necessary, and the remaining provisions of these Terms will remain in full force and effect.
Limitations of Liability
Neither Lenovo nor its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, third party content providers, sponsors, or licensors warrant that the Site will be continuous, uninterrupted or error-free. THE PLATFORM, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, ITS CONTENT, IS PROVIDED ON AN "AS IS" AND "AS AVAILABLE" BASIS. TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMISSIBLE BY LAW, LENOVO HEREBY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR NON-INFRINGEMENT, OR ANY WARRANTIES BASED ON A COURSE OF DEALING. TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, LENOVO SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, OR ANY LOSS OF PROFITS OR REVENUES, OR ANY LOSS OF DATA OR USE, RESULTING FROM YOUR ACCESS TO OR USE OF OR INABILITY TO ACCESS OR USE LEGION COMMUNITY, EVEN IF LENOVO HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SUCH DAMAGES IN ADVANCE.
*The Standing on Giants platform organizes brand content and allows platform members to discuss this content through written comments
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Terms & Conditions
Registration to this forum is free! We do insist that you abide by the rules and policies detailed below. If you agree to the terms, please check the 'I agree' checkbox and press the 'Complete Registration' button below. If you would like to cancel the registration, click here to return to the forums index.
Legion Community Terms and Conditions
Last updated 19th February 2021
Welcome to Legion Community (“Legion Community” or the “Platform") - powered by Standing on Giants*- an online communication platform operated by Lenovo (the “Client”).
Legion Community enables its registered users (the “Users") to post and share content, such as information about Lenovo products, services, events, social media activity and videos ("Content”) to the Platform.
Legion Community is provided by Lenovo through the services of Standing on Giants subject to these Terms (“Terms”). We reserve the right to amend these Terms at any time and without notice. If we amend the Terms, we will post the amended Terms on this page and indicate at the top of the page the date the Terms were last revised. Your continued use of the Platform after any such changes constitutes your acceptance of the new Terms.
By accessing or using Legion Community you signify that you have read, understood, and agree to be bound by these Terms. If you do not agree, then you should not access or use the Platform.
Lenovo’s decision in relation to any aspect of Legion Community and these Terms is final and binding.
Your Use of Legion Community Platform
ELIGIBILITY. This Program is open to Participants who are age 18 years or older at the time of entry. This Program is not open to: (1) employees or internally contracted vendors of [Client] or its parent/subsidiaries, agents or affiliates; (2) the immediate family members or members of the same household of any such employee or vendor; (3) anyone professionally involved in the development or administration of this Program; (4) employees or internally contracted vendors of governments and government-affiliated companies or organizations; or (5) any employee whose employer's guidelines or regulations do not allow entry in the Program. This Program is open to residents of Italy, Spain, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa. This Program is void in any other country and where otherwise prohibited or restricted by law.
HOW TO PARTICIPATE. To participate in the Program, visit accurately and truthfully complete the online registration form, agree to the terms and conditions of this Agreement, and follow the other instructions at the website listed above.
REWARDS. Subject to the terms and conditions of this Agreement, and once confirmed by [Client], Participants will be able to accrue “points” that can be redeemed for reward(s). Rewards will be featured at various price points and in limited quantities.
The approximate retail values of rewards are subject to change based on current market conditions at the time of reward redemption. Participants are not entitled to any surplus between actual retail value (ARV) of a reward and stated ARV and any difference between stated ARV and actual value of the reward will not be awarded. No substitution, assignment, transfer, or cash redemption of any reward is allowed. Lenovo reserves the right to substitute a reward with another reward of equal or greater value should the advertised reward become unavailable for any reason. If applicable, rewards may be fulfilled in the form of voucher(s), coupon(s) and/or gift card(s) in Lenovo’s sole discretion. If a Participant is unable to participate in or accept a reward or any portion of a reward for any reason, Lenovo shall have no further obligation to such Participant. Lenovo will not replace any lost or stolen rewards after redemption by Participants. In no event will Lenovo be responsible for fulfilling more than the stated number of rewards. Participants acknowledge and agree that rewards are available in limited quantities and reward type and availability are subject to change at Lenovo’s sole discretion. Lenovo shall have no obligation or liability to Participants for any changes made to reward type or availability.
Subject to your compliance with these Terms, Lenovo grants you a non-exclusive, non-transferable, limited right to access and use the Platform only for your personal, informational, and non-commercial use. You agree not to interrupt or attempt to interrupt the operation of the Platform in any way or circumvent or attempt to circumvent any security feature of the Platform. Your use of the information and Content available on the Platform is subject to the following restrictions:
You must not modify or remove any and all copyright, trademark or other proprietary notices contained in the Content.
You must not modify the Content in any way or reproduce or publicly display, perform, or distribute or otherwise use the Content for any commercial purpose.
No title or ownership rights in the Content or any intellectual property rights therein are transferred to you under these Terms. You may never use another user's account without the permission of that user. When creating your account, you must provide accurate and complete information and you must keep your account password secure. You must notify Lenovo immediately of any breach of security or unauthorised use of your account. Lenovo will not be liable for any and all losses caused by any unauthorised use of your account
You agree not to collect or harvest any personal data from the Platform including any personally identifiable information such as but not limited to account names, nor to use the communication systems provided by the Platform for any commercial solicitation purposes. You agree not to use any portion of the Platform as a destination linked from any unsolicited bulk messages or unsolicited commercial messages.
Your Content Posted or Linked to Legion Community
Lenovo allows you to submit posts or link content to Legion Community, including photos, images, videos, sounds, comments, links, tweets, likes, and other materials. A Legion Community moderator will moderate all posts after publication. Lenovo reserves the right to remove user’s content that it considers to be irrelevant to the purpose of the platform, or that it considers violates any of these Terms. Lenovo may also post or link to the Platform any of your Content that you make available to Lenovo for the Platform. You are solely responsible for your Content that is posted or linked to the Platform and Lenovo accepts no liability for your Content.
You grant Lenovo and other users of the Platform a non-exclusive, royalty-free, transferable, sub-licensable, worldwide license to use, store, display, reproduce, modify, create derivative works of, perform, publish, re-post, re-tweet, and distribute your Content on or in connection with the Platform.
You represent and warrant that you have all rights necessary in your Content for it to be on or available from the Platform, and that the posting and use of your Content on or through the Platform does not violate, misappropriate or infringe on the rights of any third party, including, without limitation, privacy rights, publicity rights, copyrights, trademark and/or other intellectual property rights. You further represent and warrant to the extent there are links on the Platform to your Content that is hosted on third party websites, such linking is permitted by the terms of service of any such third party websites. You agree to comply with all laws, rules and regulations applicable to your use of the Platform and your Content, including but not limited to copyright laws.
You agree that your Content will not include any violent, discriminatory, unlawful, infringing, hateful, defamatory, derogatory, harassing, pornographic or obscene photos, text, images, messages, references, content or other materials. In addition, your Content will not be confidential or proprietary, and Lenovo will have no confidentiality obligation regarding your Content.
You agree that Lenovo is only acting as a passive conduit for your online distribution and publication of your Content. Lenovo does not have any obligation to review your Content, and therefore does not guarantee the accuracy, integrity, or quality of all user Content and we cannot assure you that harmful, inaccurate, deceptive, offensive, threatening, defamatory, unlawful, or otherwise objectionable Content will not appear on the Platform. Lenovo is not responsible for any public display or misuse of your Content. Lenovo does however reserve the right to remove, exclude or modify your Content for any reason, at its discretion, including any Content that Lenovo believes violates these Terms or other applicable policies. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES WILL LENOVO BE LIABLE TO YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY IN ANY WAY FOR ANY CONTENT POSTED ON OR MADE AVAILABLE THROUGH A SITE BY YOU OR ANY OTHER USER.
Lenovo may reward points for certain activities on the Platform, including (but not limited to) sharing posts, creating posts and entering competitions. Subject to availability, Lenovo reserves the right at any time to amend, modify or retract any points, rewards or prizes earned on the Platform. You accept that Lenovo will not enter into any correspondence regarding the awarding of points or rewards and Lenovo is entitled to grant or revoke rewards at their discretion. The decision of Lenovo in relation to all aspects of this programme is final and binding.
Data Privacy and Security
Lenovo will communicate with you via email or push notifications (including via the Standing on Giants platform), about Legion Community related notices changes to features of Legion Community and any notices required by law, in lieu of communication by postal mail.. If required by law, we will ask you for consent before sending you marketing emails. Please note that you may unsubscribe to general marketing emails at any time using the link provided in the emails. You understand that your data may be shared with other Lenovo entities and trusted third parties with a contractual relationship with Lenovo solely in connection with Legion Community
Please read our Data Privacy Policy for more information on our privacy and security practices.
Representations and Warranties
You represent and warrant that:
(a) You will abide by and comply with these Terms;
(b) Your Content and Lenovo’s use thereof as contemplated by these Terms and the Platform will not infringe any rights of any third party, including but not limited to any intellectual property rights, privacy rights, and rights of publicity;
(c) You have the full power and authority to enter into these Terms and to the extent that any entity is bound hereby, to bind such entity, these Terms, and performance of obligations under these Terms do not and will not violate any other agreement to which you or such entity is a party; and
(d) You will comply with all applicable laws and regulations, including but not limited to those set forth in these Terms.
Compliance
When using Legion Community, you will comply with all applicable laws and regulations, and all terms of use and similar rules concerning your use of any Social Media Outlet or other third party publishing platform.
Upon our request made to you from time to time, you will cooperate with us and allow us access to your systems, communications, and records solely in connection with determining your compliance with these Terms.
Visiting Third Party Websites
The Platform may contain links to third party websites, advertisers, products, services, offers, or other events or activities that are not owned or controlled by Lenovo. Lenovo does not assume any responsibility for any such third party sites, information, materials, products, services or offers. If you access any third party website, product, service, or content from the Platform, you do so at your own risk and you agree that Lenovo will have no liability arising from your use of or access to any third party website, product, service, or content.
Trademarks and Ownership of Intellectual Property
Lenovo™, the Lenovo logo, and certain other product names and phrases are trademarks or service marks of Lenovo in the U.S. and/or other countries. The absence of a trademark or service mark designation next to a product or service name or logo belonging to Lenovo anywhere on the Platform does not constitute a waiver of Lenovo’s trademark or other intellectual property rights concerning that name or logo used or referenced on the Platform.
The Platform contains content owned or licensed by Lenovo ("Lenovo Content"). Lenovo Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret and other laws, and, as between you and Lenovo, Lenovo owns and retains all copyright, trademark, trade secret, patent and other intellectual property rights in and to Lenovo Content and the Platform (the “Intellectual Property”). Lenovo reserves all rights in the Lenovo Content and Intellectual Property not expressly granted in these Terms. Lenovo does not permit the use of the Lenovo Content or its Intellectual Property in advertising, as an endorsement for any product or service, or for any other purpose, commercial or otherwise, without the prior express written permission of Lenovo.
Termination
You may terminate use of the Platform at any time for any reason (in other words, un-register). Lenovo may terminate or suspend your right to use the Platform at any time, with or without cause or notice to you. Lenovo may terminate the Platform at any time without notice. Upon termination, all licenses and other rights granted to you in these Terms will immediately cease. Following termination, Lenovo may retain your Content for a commercially reasonable period of time for backup, archival, or audit purposes. Furthermore, Lenovo and its other users may retain and continue to use, store, display, reproduce, modify, create derivative works of, perform, and distribute any of your Content that other users have stored or shared through the Platform.
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Breeding season for most geckos is in full swing and gecko forums are full of anxious questions about eggs and incubation: Is my moldy/dented/shriveled/green and gooey egg OK? Why haven’t I gotten any fertile eggs yet? When will my gecko ovulate/lay her eggs? When will my eggs hatch? Face it, we’re much more broody about those eggs than the geckos.
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There’s no substitute for experience and the advice of many experienced breeders. This article is an attempt to address some of the basic, and often recurring questions about eggs during the breeding season.
No Accidental Eggs
Ideally, the only “accidental” fertile egg-laying (some female geckos lay infertile eggs without benefit of a male) should occur when an already gravid gecko has been purchased unintentionally. Other instances, usually described as: “I never saw them mating”, “I only put them together for a little while”, “he got into her cage somehow” are either due to naiveté or carelessness. Geckos are programmed to breed and will usually do so given half a chance. If you don’t intend to breed, keep your male and female geckos apart.
If you do choose to breed, it goes without saying that you will have adequate experience with the gecko species you’ve chosen, a good understanding of the incubation needs for the species you’re breeding, the resources to provide appropriate incubation, food, housing and medical care for breeders and babies, males and females in good health of the appropriate age and weight, and the understanding that many of the easier species to breed are already being produced to excess which makes gecko breeding an unlikely profit-making venture.
Where are the Eggs?
Assuming that the criteria described above have been met, and the male has been successfully introduced to the female, the long wait for eggs begins. For most gecko species, the female will lay eggs at least 2 weeks after copulation. Eggs are usually visible in the gecko’s abdomen as laying time approaches and can be seen by gently bending the gecko back to look if you have a species that can be handled, and by trapping the gecko in a deli cup or against the side of the enclosure to view the abdomen for species that cannot be easily handled. There are a number of reasons for the failure of eggs to appear visually:
–the female wasn’t ovulating (google “gecko ovulation” to see leopard gecko ovulation)
–the male is infertile
–the female or male is too young to breed successfully
–the female or male is not in good health and consequently has reduced fertility
–the female needs more time with the male
–egg production is taking longer than usual for unknown reasons
Sometimes, when all factors appear to be favorable, the female turns out not to be a good egg producer. I had that experience in my first breeding season with a female “proven” breeder who, in the three seasons I attempted to breed her to otherwise successful males, produced a total of 3 hatchlings. I have also found in my own experience, that frequently females who produced an abundance of viable eggs in one season, do poorly in the subsequent season. If you have ruled out all the obvious husbandry issues and still no eggs have appeared, you may need to simply go with different breeders. I would advise giving the female up to 8 weeks after ovulation has been observed to produce eggs, especially if it’s the beginning of the breeding season.
These Eggs Don’t Look Right
Gecko eggs are round or oval (depending on the species) and initially somewhat soft, hardening within the first few days of being laid. Many eggs grow somewhat bigger during the incubation period and some sweat (produce small droplets of water that adhere to the outside of the shell) or dent soon before hatching. Depending on the species, incubation is carried out in an incubator, in the home at room temperature or in situ. Usually, but not always, if in egg is candled by shining a light behind it, the developing embryo can be seen, initially as a “bulls-eye” shaped red form.
Some gecko eggs are obviously infertile as soon as they’re laid. These eggs are usually extremely soft and floppy, often described as “water balloons”. Other infertile eggs may be flat with poorly formed shells or shriveled. Shriveled eggs usually are due to the eggs being laid in a section of the enclosure that doesn’t provide the proper humidity to maintain it, such as an egg laid in a leopard gecko’s dry hide. In many cases, this happens because the gecko is inexperienced at laying eggs in the proper place, or the gecko somehow senses that the egg is infertile and lays in an inappropriate place. In general, it’s advisable to incubate all eggs until it’s clear that they are no good (see below).
Gecko eggs can initially looking viable but then start looking “bad” at any point during the incubation period. Eggs that don’t look right are described as: moldy, shriveled, discolored, dented, smelly, leaking. This is the point where many egg-related questions come up. As long as the incubation temperature and humidity are correct, there’s nothing that can be done about eggs that “don’t look right” except to incubate them until they either hatch or stink. Assuming that the incubation conditions are correct, most eggs that initially looked good begin to look “bad” because the embryo or fetus dies during incubation. This can occur because of defects that make the fetus non-viable or for other unknown reasons. Some gecko species are more difficult to breed than others due to the eggs’ fragility or incomplete understanding of proper breeding conditions. Some species seem to have reduced fertility; I have consistently had an 85% hatch rate with my leopard geckos during the past 2 seasons, compared with a 50% hatch rate with my African fat tails.
New breeders frequently wonder what they can do to “save” eggs that begin to look bad. As long as the incubation conditions are correct, there is really nothing to do. The egg is viable, or it’s not; it will hatch or not. The best treatment for any egg is no treatment at all.
When Will the Eggs Hatch?
The hardest part about gecko breeding, in my opinion, is waiting for those eggs to hatch. There is a time range for gecko egg hatching based on species and incubation temperature, with eggs hatching sooner when incubated at higher temperatures. It’s important for a breeder to know the expected temperature range given the incubation conditions but also to be prepared for eggs that may hatch outside the range. This is really a case of letting “nature take its course” despite the often artificial conditions of egg containers and incubators. If the egg is meant to hatch, it will hatch; if not, it won’t. Try hard to refrain from handling, candling or otherwise disturbing the eggs. If an incubator is used with an airtight egg container, the container should be opened weekly for air exchange but there is no need to mess with the eggs. Eggs that look mildly “bad” should be left alone; more than one breeder has had a funky looking egg hatch out a beautiful baby. If it’s clear that the egg is no good, and it will be clearer with experience which eggs are no good, that egg should be removed.
Although there may be situations where an egg should be “pipped” (i.e. manually opened), in general it is not a good idea. Hatchlings that are not strong enough to emerge from the egg on their own will not become healthy adult geckos. Eggs that are pipped by impatient breeders can contain babies that are not yet ready to hatch even though the calendar says they should be.
One way to pass the time waiting for eggs to hatch is to keep careful and detailed records. In addition to providing valuable information for the current and future seasons, record-keeping can give you something to do related to the eggs without disturbing them. In addition to keeping clutch laying and hatching records, I record in my journal most nights how many weeks and days it’s been since the lay date for each egg. It’s much safer for the eggs when the breeder broods over facts and figures than what’s in the incubator.
In Conclusion
You should now realize that the best advice about successfully hatching gecko eggs can be boiled down to the following:
–know what you’re doing
–do it correctly
–hands off until the eggs either hatch or stink
(The rest is commentary)
Here’s to a healthy and successful breeding season to all those who choose to breed.
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Written by Aliza
Aliza is a home care speech therapist living in the Boston area. She successfully bred a variety of gecko species between 2005 and 2017. She currently cares for a large number of geckos as well as a few frogs and bearded dragons. Other interests which she pursues in her copious free time include work in ceramics, practicing aikido and surfing the internet.
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132 Comments
Leave a Reply
Ella McGinley says:
April 26, 2011 at 11:21 am
Thank you Aliza for a great informative article. I think its a great idea to keep good notes as you can always go back to refer to them if you want to make changes or compare one breeding session to the next.
Julie says:
May 19, 2011 at 12:01 am
I have a crested gecko egg that I found a couple of weeks ago~ I noticed it was starting to turn a little darker… but I still have it with the rest of my eggs, I was checking it out tonight and I noticed a bunch of little whitish bugs (really little~ like mites) on it. I changed out the whole substrate that I had all of my eggs in and transfered them to new stuff. Do you have any idea what those were and if I did the right thing. I washed off the “what I think is bad” egg and I put it in its own container. I have seven other eggs that look just fine~ Please help 😉 thanks
Aliza says:
May 19, 2011 at 12:20 am
I don’t know much about crested gecko eggs. What is your substrate and where are you incubating (I understand that crestie eggs can be incubated in situ or elsewhere in the house at room temp)? I guess it’s possible that if you have substrate like coco fiber and if the egg was buried there it’s possible that there are some naturally occuring bugs in the substrate that got on the eggs. My gargoyle laid an (infertile) egg which I had in the enclosure for awhile and I did find those small bugs on it. It sounds as if you did the right thing with it.
About Snakes says:
September 1, 2011 at 1:03 pm
That covers all angles.. thanks
Alan says:
July 13, 2012 at 3:38 am
I’ve been a crested gecko breeder for 2 years, and I’ve seen a couple of eggs turn very dark and shriveled up, almost to the point of looking like they’re starting to rot, and surprise, surprise, a little cresty is born. I came very close to throwing the eggs away, but decided to leave them alone until they opened up or dried out completely, and I’m glad I did. One of those eggs was so shriveled up that it was obvious that it was bad and I manually opened it and a baby came right out. It looked healthy and started to eat within two days. So my recommendation to anyone breeding any species is, keep the right temp and humidity at all times and leave the eggs alone until babies are born or the eggs start to rot.
Roz says:
May 31, 2013 at 10:26 am
I have leapord geckos, we had no idea that one was male and the other female. Well one started laying eggs and at first they seemed ok, but the next day they were dented. Does this mean they are not viable? Did we do something wrong? Or is there anything that we can do?
Aliza says:
June 3, 2013 at 10:59 pm
Leopard gecko eggs, after they’re laid, can become dented for a number of reasons:
–the eggs aren’t fertile (first time female, infertile male or female, luck of the draw . . .)
–the eggs aren’t getting the right amount of humidity or heat: leopard gecko eggs need to be incubated at a steady temperature between about 80-88 degrees F (the temperature should not vary more than a degree or two) in a humid container. They are usually incubated in an incubator.
If your eggs were just left in the cage, they may not have had the proper humidity and/or tempearture. The general rule of thumb is to incubate the egg until it either stinks or hatches. Some eggs may dent initially but then plump out again.
Susan Coley says:
July 25, 2013 at 1:58 pm
I have two “house” geckos I picked up in an old building. I put them in a terrarium. One has been there for a year and the other for two months. I noticed today there is an egg under a piece of wood in the terrarium. When I was showing someone that egg, we discovered another one under a plant. So in your comments, I get the idea I should just leave them (eggs) alone and keep doing what I’m doing. How long does it take for an egg to hatch? Do I need to add some “nesting” materials? The first little guy has been a classroom pet and my plan is to take them back to school in a few weeks. Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks!
Aliza says:
July 25, 2013 at 11:01 pm
Most geckos either bury their eggs or glue them on some sort of surface. The real question is the extent to which the cage environment mimics the geckos’ habitat where they would normally lay their eggs in terms of temperature and humidity. For example, crested gecko and gargoyle gecko eggs usually incubate at about 70-75 degrees, which is summer room temperature in many locales. Many people incubate them in the cage or somewhere in their homes. By contrast, leopard gecko eggs generally incubate at 80-88 degrees. Most people use an incubator. I don’t know the optimal temperature for house gecko eggs. You could do some internet research to try and figure it out. You may need to remove the eggs since many geckos will eat their young if they encounter them. Another good place to get info is your local herp society which should be informed about the local geckos. Good luck.
Kimwal says:
June 7, 2014 at 3:28 am
Thanks Aliza, waiting for the hatch is indeed the hardest part. I have a clutch of 3 (2 Mom’s) all laid same day–anyway–tonight, had my first hatch of 2014! I worried over the eggs way too much especially in the last week. I appreciate your good advice about record keeping. It was recommended to me by Gulf coast Geckos to use Herper Pro software. I will check it out.
I candled way too much also, I adjusted temperatures–multiple things–I really need to get more breeding experience under my belt and leave well enough alone! LOL!
Aliza says:
June 7, 2014 at 10:44 pm
Congrats on your first hatch!
ali says:
August 14, 2014 at 10:23 am
Please tell me the number of days it will take to hatch an egg
Aliza says:
August 14, 2014 at 10:12 pm
You need to be more specific. It depends on what kind of gecko egg you’re incubating and what your incubation temperature is. In general, if you phrase it more specifically, google will probably answer your question.
Bill says:
November 26, 2014 at 12:10 pm
I live in Florida, these cute little geckos are all over the place. I found a new born on our. Dinning room cabinet. Not wanting it to die, I need to know how & what to feed it. Thank You
Aliza says:
November 26, 2014 at 11:29 pm
Not every lizard you see in Florida is a gecko. If it’s green or brown or out during the day, it’s an anole. The brownish bumpy ones out at night are house geckos or mediterranean geckos (same thing). In general, putting them in an enclosure and trying flightless fruit flies or pinhead crickets will probably do the job, but your best bet is to let it go where it will probably have a better chance of survival.
Chrissy says:
February 6, 2015 at 8:35 pm
Every website I have searched will not tell me about how long it takes for a lepord getco to hatch in a incubator at the correct temperatures and humidity??? Someone PLEASE give me a estime !!! Is it 2 weeks or 2 months. I have no idea
Farron Nicole says:
February 6, 2015 at 10:44 pm
Hi my fancy lepord gecko just had her eggs 12 hours ago I dint knit what to do they are crinkly but white I’ve put them in there container and moisture it. Put a few little holes om the top lid but one of the eggs stink what do I do its my first time
Aliza says:
February 7, 2015 at 7:35 pm
Hopefully you’ve put them in an incubator. Geckos laying eggs for the first time don’t always lay fertile eggs. If they get flat or stink, the egg is probably not fertile. You will probably get more eggs in 2 weeks.
Aliza says:
February 7, 2015 at 7:52 pm
I incubate at about 83 and my eggs generally hatch in about 7 weeks. If you incubate at a lower temperature it will take a bit longer (mine have taken up to 9 weeks at low temperatures). If you incubate at a higher temperature it will take less time. I don’t incubate at the higher temperatures but I would guess that at the highest temperature they may hatch in 4-5 weeks.
Tannith says:
June 1, 2015 at 10:52 am
Hi,
How many eggs would a gargoyle gecko lay if they we’re paired once? I’d love to breed one day, but only if I have enough room for the babies. Most reptiles species I’ve read about seem to lay lots of eggs but a couple of the sites say gecko’s only lay eggs which doesn’t seem right?
Thanks
Aliza says:
June 1, 2015 at 10:27 pm
Most gecko species, gargoyles included, lay 2 eggs at a time. Geckos store sperm so they can lay multiple clutches with only one mating. I’d guess a minimum of 3 clutches of 2 eggs each. That said, I’ve been breeding gargoyles for about 3 years now and they have not been that prolific. I breed 2 females and generally get between 7-9 healthy hatchlings a year.
Wonders says:
June 16, 2015 at 5:14 pm
Am I supposed to remove the male from the habitat after the female lays her eggs will he do anything to them
Aliza says:
June 22, 2015 at 4:42 pm
We will be responding to this question in a Geckotime article which will run next week
Nadia says:
July 1, 2015 at 8:03 pm
HI! I just adopted a gecko from an animal shelter. Turns out there are two eggs in the little Tupperware with vermiculite. Now… I just got the gecko today, I don’t know how long those eggs have been there. Should I just leave them be for now? I do not know if all the transportation from some dude’s house (animals siezed by police) maybe damaged them. I barely know enough to start caring for a gecko, much less about their eggs!
Aliza says:
July 1, 2015 at 9:06 pm
Generally leopard gecko (is that what you have?) eggs need to be incubated at a steady temp somewhere between 80-88 with high humidity. Most people do this by putting the egg in a container with a moist substrate and putting that in an incubator. Some people have been successful if they have a place in their home where the temperature stays steady in that range. Some people have had success keeping the eggs buried in the substrate in the cage with the adults, though there’s always the chance that the eggs will hatch and become dinner for the parents. It’s likely that these eggs are no good anymore but it’s also likely that your gecko will lay eggs again in about 2 weeks. Do a google search for “breeding leopard geckos” to find out more.
Aliza
kelly says:
July 10, 2015 at 5:49 pm
Hello.
I love your article and found it very informative.
We got a female leopard gecko a month ago and were told that she was mated with a male at the pet store but a couple of months before we got her, so that would be anywhere from 2-5 months ago.
She laid her first egg within a few weeks of us having her and after a makeshift incubator, it caved in and was moldy. It was very evident that it was no good.
Yesterday she laid another egg and I candles it and could see the red ring with a dot in the center of it.
My question is, how long can a female gecko lay fertile eggs if she hasn’t been with a male for a few months?
Aliza says:
July 10, 2015 at 6:00 pm
It could be as long as the whole breeding season and there’s even the possibility that it could carry into the next year but I haven’t seen any data about this.
Truman says:
July 14, 2015 at 9:41 pm
My son tried breeding two crested geckos two years ago. His female had several clutches but none of them hatched. It’s been well over a year since her last clutch and she hasn’t breeded again.
Tonight we found two eggs beneath the crested gecko’s water dish.
These would be infertile, right? No possible way for them to be fertile? His gecko seems quite protective of the eggs right now, so we’re leaving them in the tank.
Any advice, please send. And thanks!
Aliza says:
July 14, 2015 at 10:24 pm
Although I haven’t seen any concrete data, there are some indications that female geckos can store sperm for multiple years. In addition, cresties, gargoyles and leaches have been known to lay fertile eggs even without benefit of a male (parthenogenetic). I had a bearded dragon that did this once. If the temperatures in the enclosure are fairly stable, leave the eggs where they are and there’s a good chance that in about 3 months you’ll have baby cresties (or not). You can also move the eggs to another location if you can provide high humidity and steady temperatures in the 70’s. Good luck.
kai says:
July 17, 2015 at 9:48 pm
Hi
I just found two supposed “house” Gecko eggs in our houses thread and silk box. What temperature do I heat them to? I’m at Hawaii. they are rather round and I don’t have an incubator. so I’m using the insides of a pillow it that OK?
Thanks from me
Aliza says:
July 18, 2015 at 8:51 pm
Your best bet is to google “house gecko breeding” and read some care sheets. Since these geckos survive in your climate in the wild, the eggs can probably be incubated in your home without an incubator (unless you have AC, in which case they would be better incubated outdoors). Use the articles you find on the web to figure out what kind of substrate (if any) to put them in.
Cane geckos says:
August 5, 2015 at 3:03 pm
Hi, I hope you can help advise me and I apologize now for the long read.
I’m an owner of several leopard geckos and have owned Leos for many years now and the upkeep and nutrition side of things Im well versed with.
I’m currently in my 3nd year of trying to breed successfully, some 10 years after owning my first pet leo gecko to be exact. My first attempt at breeding 3 years ago was a great success, but i feel it was a pure fluke……….I found my first ever egg had been laid and so incubated it in a homemade incubator that a friend lent to me. It was a plastic toy box with water at the bottom and a water heater, the box had air holes and a lid. Half way up the box It had a mesh across the middle acting as a shelf. The egg its self was in a small cricket type container that you would buy from the reptile store when buying crickets. What i did was half fill the container with permiculite, which was damp to the point it would clump together but not to wet where it would drip water. The lid of the smaller container housing the egg was slightly open to stop condensation dripping on the egg. The heat and humidity was generated by the water temperature. And it worked I hatch my first egg I ever had and i was over the moon. So there it started and I got the bug for breeding.
Now here’s my problem my second season was a terrible failed attempt and I’m now on my 3rd season (3rd year). I currently have 2 nice white Eggs, the first egg laid this season i did candle and it had a clearish glow to it and it had a red ring on one side, the second egg was laid 2 days later by the same female and had a yellowish glow to it and also had a red ring on one side…… Now as I said my 2nd season was a fail and the difference to the first successfully attemp with the homemade incubator is quite a biggy, remember I got the bug!! Well i went out and brought a purpose made incubator by “luck reptile”, the herp 2 incubator for £125, well it failed me!! Now before i used it on my second season I reviewed the incubator and found that it wasn’t good to trust its digital temperature display, and I was advised to place a second thermometer in the incubator where the eggs are to be sure i achieve the right temperature as the unit I brought wasnt accurate enought. I was also advised to place a container of water at the bottom of the incubator to help increase humidity.
So heres my current setup for my 3rd season attempt, here’s the details including what i feel i should be doing to hatch a successful batch. Please correct me if I’m wrong with any think….
I’m using the herp 2 lucky reptile incubator.
Placed an extra thermometer on same shelf as the eggs to get an accurate reading of 84f.
I have a container of water at the bottom of incubator for humidity control.
Humidity is sitting at 80-90%.
I’m using a cricket container with inch thick of permiculite, the container has air holes.
Permiculite is damp to the point it clumps but does fall apart and doesn’t drip when squashed.
Eggs are half buried.
And the lid of cricket container housing the eggs is slightly open at one end to stop condensation dripping on the eggs.
Does all this sound right to you? I setup the second failed season (last year) the same way as explained above. Do you no of this incubator? Is it any good?
The reason for this long message is the first of this seasons eggs (only a week old today) has started molding. A common question I know but I feel I’m doing everything right and now starting to dout myself and the specially made incubator I brought. Should I go back to a homemade incubator or not? Or am I doing everything wrong. Please help as I don’t want another failed attempt this year.
Thank you in advance for taking the time to read this. And i look forward to your reply.
Aliza says:
August 5, 2015 at 3:52 pm
Sorry you’re having problems with breeding. It would be helpful to know more about your “failed” second season: how many eggs were laid by how many females? Were they infertile or did they “go bad”? How far into the incubation?
I looked up the “lucky reptile herp II incubator” and as far as I can see it’s a mini fridge type which has been successful for many people, including me, in the past. You do have to keep track of the actual temperature, as you’re doing, since I find that some of these incubator types don’t always switch on the cooling/heating so promptly if the ambient temperature changes drastically. The only quibble I have with your incubation technique is that usually people keep the lid (without air holes) on the egg container all the way and open it briefly every week or so for air exchange. I’m assuming that “permiculite” is similar to our “vermiculite” (looks like tiny gold bricks) as opposed to “perlite” (small white pieces of material). The containers I used to use for eggs were about 6″x4″x2″ deep (sorry, you’ll have to do the metric conversion) and I never had trouble with condensation. Is it possible that your containers are too shallow?
With those few tweaks of your incubation, the question now is about the geckos. I have had females lay fertile eggs one year and either not lay, or not lay eggs that went anywhere (even though they candled fertile) the next year. I’m not saying that this is the problem, but it needs to be taken into consideration. Sorry nothing specific that would explain everything comes through. I hope you have better luck this season.
Cane geckos says:
August 5, 2015 at 4:30 pm
Thanks for your reply. Your right virmiculite is what I’m using not permiculite. My container size is 7″x4″x3″ deep, they are what I buy crickets or mealworms in from the store and seem ideal as egg boxes, but they have lots of tiny air holes in the sides plus im keeping the lid open slightly which I’m thinking is a bad move.
So the current look of the eggs i explained , there glow and red rings are good signs? They are not to dented either, but one as I said has started molding.
As for the second failed season I left the eggs to run there course before I ditch them just incase, but one just went moldy with dents but started off a nice white egg and the second egg went very deflated and hard and yellow but was fairly yellow when laid. All my eggs each year have been from same female. She’s only 6 years old and he’s slightly younger.
So you would advise me to Change my container to one with no holes, similar size to what I’m using already or your dimensions. But i must seal the lid properly so its air tight and just open once a week to give fresh air. And control the temp as I already am?
Should I get rid of the water at the bottom of the incubator or not? I cant see the point in keeping it if I’m sealing the container the eggs are in, Id imagine i just need to control the temperature as I assume the moister in the egg box Wil be plenty for the course of the incubation period, is that right?
Aliza says:
August 5, 2015 at 5:05 pm
With a sealed egg container (with no air holes) I never have to add water to them. I use plastic bags filled with water at the bottom of the incubator. It’s purpose is not to maintain the humidity but to help stabilize the temp (I understood why that worked at some point, but don’t remember anymore). See what happens if you make those changes. As I said, it could be due to your female. I’ve had females who laid eggs that candled fertile but never went anywhere.
Cane geckos says:
August 5, 2015 at 5:18 pm
OK well I’ve done them changes, and I shall keep the water at the bottom of the incubator. I will report back here and let you no how I get .
So as far as the moldy egg goes what do you think it’s fate should be? Keep or ditch?, it is only light mold so I’ve lightly wiped it with a cotton tip just now. But should get rid of it incase of contamination to the second egg.
Thanks for all your help I really appreciate it. Fingers are crossed!!!
Natalie says:
September 3, 2015 at 7:55 am
Hi, I have 2 eggs laid 2 days ago, caught her in the act. When I candled them today they are completely yellow with no red inside. Should the red “bulls eye” show immediately or only after a few days? Eggs are white, not dented and not too soft or too hard. They are stuck together though but I am not pulling them apart. This is her second batch for the season. First 2 eggs had the red but I only found them a few days after she laid them.
Aliza says:
September 3, 2015 at 10:57 pm
NOrmally you see the bulls eye right away, but I have had eggs hatch where I couldn’t see the bulls eye at first (and have also had eggs where I did see the bulls eye not develop anymore and not hatch) so incubate them until they either hatch or stink.
Fsgbd says:
November 3, 2015 at 6:10 am
What happens if you sake the gecko eggs will the still hatch
Aliza says:
November 3, 2015 at 11:17 pm
It depends on a lot of things: how much did you shake them, what stage of development were the eggs in, whether they would have hatched anyway or not. Obviously, no one shakes the eggs on purpose, but if it happens, just put them back the way they’re supposed to be and hope for the best. The eggs are usually pretty strong.
tiffany says:
January 6, 2016 at 1:49 pm
I have a female leapord gecko and it looks like she has eggs in her but its been like that for 3 weeks now should i worrie about it shes eating and drinking and goes in and out of the nesting box but doaent do qnything
Aliza says:
January 6, 2016 at 10:58 pm
Three weeks isn’t unusual. Also, sometimes what you’re really seeing is fat pads and not eggs at all.
Claire says:
January 21, 2016 at 5:16 pm
Hi Aliza,
I have just found some eggs inside the frame of my cat flap. I live in Australia and we have geckos around the house. Obviously, I don’t know how long they have been there and I don’t feel great letting them hatch (potentially) into my cat enclosure. I’m not a breeder – obviously – but what basics can I do with these eggs now. Somewhere warm? dark? and then leave them to it?
Aliza says:
January 21, 2016 at 9:20 pm
If they are glued on to the surface (some geckos glue their eggs) you won’t be able to move them. In that case (or if you don’t want to deal with moveable eggs) you can tape a small plastic cup over the eggs. Keep watch and when the babies hatch, they’ll hatch into the cup. Then you can slide something under the cup and transport them outside. If you can move the eggs, try to put them in a place that’s safe from animals in the same climate as where they were laid. You may be able to put them into a deli cup with some grass around them. Just try to maintain the same conditions. When they hatch, open the cup and let them go. Hatchling reptiles don’t need parent care and are ready to go on their own.
Claire says:
January 21, 2016 at 9:28 pm
Thanks Aliza,
They weren’t glued and fell out around the place as I unscrewed the frame of the cat flap. I currently have them in a small fruit puree cup on the widow-sill as this is the closest approximation I could figure out at short notice. I’m struggling work out a safe place that is going to be warm, dark and dry, like where they were.
What is a deli cup?
Aliza says:
January 21, 2016 at 9:47 pm
It sounds as if you’re doing everything you can do.
Deli cup: sorry for the dialect. It’s a clear plastic cup that has a tightly fitting lid that is usually used as a container for salads that one buys at a delicatessen (is that a word familiar to Australians?). Due to the size, clear material and tight fitting lid, people have started punching small holes in them (or buying them pre-punched) and using them to transport or display (at a sales show) reptiles.
nioami says:
January 22, 2016 at 5:07 pm
I have a Leo who laid two infertile eggs two days ago. She’s a full adult and I’ve had her 5 months I just want to know how long to wait until I can breed her I don’t know her weight I just know she’s pretty damn fat
Aliza says:
January 23, 2016 at 7:30 pm
If she’s laying infertile eggs then she’s ovulating and if she’s bred she has a chance of laying fertile eggs. Here are some other things to think about when you consider breeding:
–do you know the genetic background of this gecko and the male? If not, the geckos you produce will be hard to sell to many of the prime buyers
–do you have an incubator and, if not, are you prepared to make or buy one?
–do you have the space and finances to house hatchlings and get medical attention for anyone who needs it?
Good luck with your plans!
Lyndsey says:
February 8, 2016 at 4:28 pm
I have one egg that was laid yesterday. Can someone tell me if its good or not so I don’t waste my time?
Aliza says:
February 8, 2016 at 10:20 pm
We definitely can’t tell you if it’s good or not without a picture. If it feels like a water balloon, i.e. very wobbly and wet, it’s probably infertile. However, some eggs that look fertile don’t work out. If you’re talking about most geckos, there will probably be more eggs in 2 weeks, so you may as well incubate this one and be prepared for the next clutch.
Claire says:
March 18, 2016 at 4:32 am
Hi Aliza,
I just popped back to say that – amazingly – one of my gecko eggs hatched. These were the ones I found in the cat flap, had no idea how long they had been there or if they were okay. I had given up checking on the eggs each day and tonight noticed, just by chance, the small body in the container. Two more eggs left and they are not in a better container – just in case!!
Carrie Mosman says:
April 3, 2016 at 10:22 pm
I have my incubator at 90°F with 50% humidity and circulating air is this okay? It’s my first time and I would like a second opinion.
Aliza says:
April 3, 2016 at 11:09 pm
90 is pretty high for leopard gecko eggs if that’s what you’re incubating. I wouldn’t go higher than 88. The humidity inside the egg box is the most important and I believe that should be at least 80%. That’s usually achieved by having a moist substrate and keeping the box closed without air holes (open the box once a week briefly for air exchange). Some people feel the circulating air can dry things out. As long as you can maintain a higher humidity, I don’t think it matters either way.
Virginia says:
April 16, 2016 at 11:27 am
Our preschool leopard gecko has laid and successfully hatched several babies the last three years. Preschoolers who help me take care of the geckos during the school year get first dibs on the geckos and any leftovers are sold to help purchase classroom gecko supplies. This year she has laid 3 “bad” eggs. She was an adult rescue 7 or 8 years ago, so I’m not sure of her age. Just wondering if geckos reach a point where they are no longer fertile and around what year this would be. We have very excited and curious preschoolers waiting for their clutch of eggs to be laid and placed in the incubator where they can watch the eggs grow. Thank you.
Aliza says:
April 16, 2016 at 7:57 pm
Leopard geckos definitely reach a point where they either stop laying or the eggs are no good. She sounds as if she’s getting older so this isn’t surprising.
Maya says:
May 9, 2016 at 4:03 pm
My eggs are being incubated at 79 degrees and I was wondering how long it would take them to hatch at this rate. Thanks!
Aliza says:
May 9, 2016 at 10:10 pm
What species of eggs are you incubating? My leopard gecko eggs are incubating at 81/82 and hatching at about 8 weeks, so it will probably be a bit longer. 79 is a somewhat marginal temperature and could be a bit low. On the other hand, my gargoyle eggs are incubating at 75 and will hatch in 11-13 weeks. When I incubate the garg eggs at 82, they hatch in about 8 weeks.
Vlad says:
May 21, 2016 at 3:43 pm
How Do I Get Gecko Eggs ?
Aliza says:
May 21, 2016 at 9:47 pm
I’m not sure what you mean, but the usual way is to put a male and a female gecko together.
Christina says:
June 19, 2016 at 3:53 pm
I need some advice. My crestie laid an egg not sure how long ago but I candled it and it looks to have something inside. Problem is it looks to be two pinkish vain blobs connected by one little vain. To me that doesn’t seem quite correct. The egg itself is white and does have two small dents from when I first found it. I have been incubating it for a week now and haven’t seen a change. Is this normal? Or is it an egg that is somehow looking to be fine on the outside but is dead within?
Aliza says:
June 20, 2016 at 8:00 pm
I don’t breed cresties, but I do breed gargoyles among other species. There are several possibilities:
–it’s continuing to develop and has moved on from the original bulls-eye
–it’s stopped developing and will eventually shrivel up
–it’s twins
I’ve had the first two things happen to me. There’s really nothing for it but to just leave it alone and incubate till it either hatches or stinks. I’ve even recently had yucky looking eggs hatch out healthy geckos.
Maria says:
August 29, 2016 at 6:41 pm
My crested gecko just laid two eggs! First thing, I thought it was a male. Also, there is no other gecko around. I researched a little and read that geckos can lay unfertilized eggs… Now, what will happen to those eggs? What should I do with them? My husband said this is the second time it had laid eggs, but the first two dissappeared after a few weeks. Should I just leave them there or remove them from the tank?
Aliza says:
August 29, 2016 at 10:00 pm
Some geckos do lay eggs without benefit of a male. Nearly all the time, these eggs are infertile and will not hatch. However, in rare cases, cresties have laid eggs that have actually hatched, so it’s felt that even though crested geckos usually reproduce by male/female mating and egg-laying, in certain circumstances, it’s possible for crested geckos to be parthenogenetic. Usually crested gecko eggs are incubated in a sealed, moist container at room temperatures. To find out more, google “crested gecko breeding”. You can try to incubate the eggs if you want, to see if something will hatch, though it’s unusual. Otherwise, just dispose of the eggs.
Jill says:
September 13, 2016 at 8:18 am
Our gargoyle female laid 2 eggs. She has never been in contact with a male- although we do have a male in proximity. We are assuming they are not fertile. I was wondering if you ever heard of a gargoyle gecko self fertilizing?
Aliza says:
September 13, 2016 at 3:16 pm
Actually I have. It’s not common, and you shouldn’t expect too much, but they’re worth incubating (keep in moist substrate at room temp –it may take up to 13 weeks) to see what happens. You can try candling them by shining a flashlight through them. The fertile ones have a red bull’s eye on one side.
Janis says:
September 19, 2016 at 1:40 pm
I live in Alexandria VA, and have recently had a problem with Mediterranean Geckos (according to the City of Alexandria – light yellow/tannish with black spots) coming into my house. I didn’t know we had them in Alexandria, much less in homes. I don’t know how they’re getting in. I do not have insects or food/dirty dishes. I’ve caught 6 (2 in utility room 3 in bathroom all on 1st floor). I thought they were gone after the 1st 5, but today got another. Guess the egg incubation period is up. Can you give me a suggestion where to look for the eggs? Most of what I’ve had range from babies (1.5″long) to a little older maybe 4″ long. I’d appreciate any help you can give me.
Aliza says:
September 19, 2016 at 8:20 pm
There is information from the Virginia Herp Society about the Mediterranean gecko (H. turcicus) in VA: http://www.virginiaherpetologicalsociety.com/reptiles/lizards/mediterranean-gecko/Mediterranean%20Gecko.pdf
The information I read indicated that this gecko tends to lay eggs “under bark, in crevices, or in moist soil,” and that females may share nesting sites. The eggs may be laid in your home, or may be laid outside near your home. They have most likely been buried, so they will be hard to find. The good news is that breeding season is almost over, so there should be fewer geckos around in the fall and winter. They do have their beneficial aspect because they eat bugs,so if you can tolerate them, they’re worth keeping around.
Daelani says:
September 20, 2016 at 4:30 pm
Im new to leopard geckos but my husband has had them growing up. We have 2 female that keep laying eggs. I have been trying to hatch them with no luck! It is my first females 4th clutch and my other females second clutch. The eggs keep getting moldy and sink in. Ive kept them all until they have gotten completely flat. I dont know what im doing wrong. Ive even switched incubators because i didnt think it was working right. I just found two eggs on Saturday and they looked great. But today i noticed a thin layer of mold growing. I just found a second clutch from my other female and want to make sure these dont mold too. Please Help!
Aliza says:
September 20, 2016 at 4:37 pm
I’m assuming you have a male leopard gecko as well (if you don’t, then that’s the problem). In order to make sure you’re doing everything right, you should probably google “leopard gecko breeding” and read some info to see how that lines up. It would be helpful to know also what kind of incubator(s) you have. That said, some first time leopard gecko breeders don’t lay fertile eggs, some of them never do (I’ve had females that I’ve tried with for 3 seasons and finally given up) and on occasion the male is infertile.
Mile says:
December 4, 2016 at 8:31 pm
I had one smaller crested gecko egg hatch 8 days ago but the larger egg has yet to hatch. Should I just continue to wait? The egg is in good shape
Aliza says:
December 4, 2016 at 8:46 pm
No guarantees, but its worth waiting. I have, though, had eggs look great for many weeks and eventually mold. My general advice is incubate until it hatches or stinks.
Bryan101 says:
December 25, 2016 at 12:33 pm
What other than coco fiber can i put in the egg laying site?
Aliza says:
December 25, 2016 at 1:59 pm
I think coco fiber is best, but you could presumably also use perlite, vermiculite (I have had geckos eat this stuff, though) or possibly this new substrate called “Lugarti natural reptile bedding” though I haven’t used it personally. You could try sphagnum moss, though I worry about geckos eating it. Any reason you don’t want house coco fiber?
Liesel says:
January 17, 2017 at 9:20 am
My son’s 10 month old female leopard gecko laid her first egg two nights ago. She clawed around her tank and seemed to be trying to lay a second egg for a while but still hasn’t. It looks like there is still an egg inside of her. She ate a ton last night and again this morning but isn’t acting like herself. Is it possible for a clutch to spread out over a few days or should she have laid the second egg by now? What do we do?
Aliza says:
January 17, 2017 at 9:36 am
Occasionally there is a day between laying, but it’s not that common. It’s also not that uncommon for a gecko new to laying to lay only a single egg. If you’re convinced she has another egg inside and she’s not laying, I would definitely recommend a reptile vet. If the egg you think you see inside is small, pink and round (as opposed to large oval and white) it’s probably the next clutch of eggs developing. You can find a reptile vet near you here: arav.org
Jennifer says:
February 4, 2017 at 9:09 pm
I have had geckos for several years and only just started breeding them. Our females are doing very well! One of our females however, has had visible eggs in her for over two weeks now. She is eating and I’ve seen her drinking and she has still be voiding in her tank. Is it because it is her first that she is taking longer? She is well fed, and we supplement vitamin powder with her food. She sheds regularly and has an under the tank heater. She is well taken care of! (Because we love our geckos!)
Aliza says:
February 4, 2017 at 9:36 pm
Sometimes it does take longer than you’d expect and sometimes what looks like eggs is really fat pads (it’s happened with me and I’ve been breeding for 12 years). As long as the gecko is active and eating, she’s probably OK and you just have to play the waiting game. Good luck with your season.
Jennifer says:
February 6, 2017 at 12:17 pm
@ Aliza,
Thank you so much for your response. Last night I decided to cover the Eggeling box a little more, so she felt safer. I also made sure to set it on top of the under the tank heater. By this morning she had laid two beautiful, viable eggs. She is doing great and I fed her a ton this morning along with calcium and vitamin supplements. Thank you!!
Candice Sosebee says:
February 9, 2017 at 3:21 pm
I have a male and female in my 7th grade life science class. She laid a clutch while I was absent for several days. I’m unsure of when she laid them in her dry area. But my question is…is there a possibility of the eggs still making it if they haven’t been at the right humidity for several days? My students are so excited and I hate to make them wait 45-60 days if there is no chance of the eggs making it. I’ve never hatched eggs, but I know what I need to buy now. I have an incubator but do not have the right substrate (vermiculite) yet for the box that needs to go inside it. Thanks so much!
Aliza says:
February 9, 2017 at 3:37 pm
It could go either way. Leopard (I assume, leopard, right?) gecko eggs are so hardy that I’ve actually heard stories of someone tossing an egg they thought wasn’t viable in the garbage, only to find a hatchling in there soon after! My incubator accidentally got shut down for about 12 hours last April and everything hatched. Even if you’d gotten them into the incubator right away, all eggs, especially eggs from a first-timer, aren’t fertile. This could be a good lesson for your class about the realities of reproduction. You do realize, I hope, that there’s a good chance you’re going to get another pair of eggs is a few weeks? Please be sure to read my article about my experience with incubators here: http://geckotime.com/a-tale-of-three-incubators/ and learn what you can about best incubator practices. Good luck!
Candice Sosebee says:
February 9, 2017 at 3:43 pm
Thanks for your quick response. Yes, they are leopards. I got them from someone and the female went through a season of breeding and eggs already but the other owner did not try to hatch them. I think that was the females first season. I’ve had them in my possession since the summer and this is her first time laying this breeding season. But yes, I will be ready for sure in a few weeks and hopefully these will make it too. It’s good to know that they are a hardy species.
Thanks again,
Candice
Moca coca says:
February 23, 2017 at 6:43 pm
I don’t have perlight or coconut stuff. I only have moss. Would I be able to put into the Moss in the container with the eggs?
Aliza says:
February 23, 2017 at 7:21 pm
The question is whether the moss will hold the moisture like the perlite without making them too wet. I recommend you start with the moss if you have eggs now and then go to a garden store and get some perlite. Unless you live in another country (I’m in the US), perlite is cheap and easy to come by.
Gohz says:
February 28, 2017 at 2:09 am
Hi Aliza, my leopard gecko has stop eat about 2 months+, 2 weeks ago she laid the first 2 infertile eggs in the moss box (this is the first time she laid eggs), these eggs look extremely soft, flat and floppy, now she lay another 2 outside the moss box which is on her container floor, this time the eggs shells is hard but look a bit formed shells. My questions are without eating for few months is that OK for her? Laying eggs on the hard floor for about 24hrs will the eggs had any chance to hatch? My room temperature is about 80F and humidity about 55-60%. Thanks
Aliza says:
March 1, 2017 at 12:37 am
It’s not unusual for leopard geckos to stop eating when they ovulate, and in some cases, they’re still not eating when they lay the eggs. Usually they get hungry after laying. You could encourage yours to eat by holding her and gently poking a feeder in her mouth. Try this for a little while every day and keep offering her food for her to catch by herself as well.
Often if eggs are laid outside the lay box they are not fertile. You can shine a light behind the eggs to see if there is a round red “bulls eye” shape which would mean that the egg is fertile. If it is, it may hatch even though it was laid outside the box. It may still not be fertile. The general rule is to incubate until the egg either hatches or stinks.
Jane says:
March 9, 2017 at 10:37 am
I’ve kept geckos for years and have recently got a breeding pair of pictus geckos. I’ve never had this breed before and I’ve never bred geckos before but I am wanting to with this pair, is there any advice you can give me for breeding/incubating them? Both are about a year old and are both healthy. I’d love to breed but I’m anxious to make sure that I’m doing it as best I can! Thanks for any advice!!
Aliza says:
March 9, 2017 at 10:51 pm
I haven’t bred pictus geckos, though I did get some eggs from Matt (owner of Gecko Time site) before he moved away and two of them were pictus geckos. If I recall correctly, the eggs are somewhat delicate and laid in the sand. Matt, I believe, would remove them with a plastic spoon and put them in the incubator on damp sand in a deli cup. Essentially you need an incubator which I would guess you could run at somewhere between 82-88. I have been told that pictus geckos breed very prolifically and this can significantly shorten the female’s lifespan, but as I said, I don’t have first hand experience. To be more sure that you’re “getting it right”, I recommend you look online for pictus gecko breeders selling their geckos and then contact them for details.
Holly says:
March 13, 2017 at 3:13 pm
Okay help my female gargoyle a two eggs I have a male and a female together um I don’t have any hatch right I don’t have any vermiculite should I keep them in the soil that they were born in or should I take them out and take some of that soil and put them in a container please help ASAP
Aliza says:
March 13, 2017 at 10:18 pm
Many people incubate their gargoyle eggs at room temperature. I don’t because I don’t have AC and my “room temperature” during breeding season can range from the low 60’s to mid 90’s! It’s best to remove the eggs from the cage, since if they hatch in the cage, the hatchlings may become dinner (although I missed an egg one season and was surprised to find a hatchling in the cage one day). I’d recommending filling a deli cup with some moist soil and burying the eggs in it. Put the cup somewhere where you feel the temperatures are more or less steady in the 70’s. Make sure the substrate stays moist, but don’t pour a huge amount of water in there so the eggs are sopping wet. My eggs take 11-13 weeks to hatch at 75 degrees F.
Sammy says:
March 19, 2017 at 8:15 am
I have 2 long tailed lizards one female and male and they have laid three eggs its been 3 and a half weeks and they are all yellow and dented a lil, but not stinky. Are they ok? Will they still survive?
Aliza says:
March 19, 2017 at 3:05 pm
I’m not familiar with long tailed lizards, but here are some things to consider:
–based on what you can find out, are you incubating them at appropriate temperature and humidity (reptile eggs usually require a steady temperature in a particular range and a high humidity)?
–Did you (or can you)candle them to see if there are red veins,or a general red glow at this point in time?
If you’re incubating them appropriately and they candle red chances are they’re good. If not, keep them until they either hatch or stink. I’ve had gecko eggs that looked fine not hatch and eggs that looked terrible hatch out healthy geckos.
Dawn says:
March 31, 2017 at 1:50 pm
I have two Leopard Geckos, male & female, they are relatively young… I knew I was taking the chance of them breeding by putting them together, but they came from the same pet store tank & it was fall, I was hoping they would do alright together. I have another tank ready if I shall have to move either of them. Last night the inevitable happened. My female laid an egg! But it looks more oval & it is dented. Is it OK or is it most likely a dud? I am thinking she just may be too young…
Also, do you think I should take the male out for a bit? Or would they be OK together? They have always known each other, keep in mind. I have never had issues with them so that is why I am asking. Thank you for the info, any advice would be much appreciated! God Bless!
Aliza says:
March 31, 2017 at 2:43 pm
It’s not unusual for a gecko to lay eggs for the first time that don’t “work out”. She will likely lay again in the next few weeks and eventually may lay fertile eggs. Many people just put their males and females together to mate and then separate them. I keep mine together throughout the season. As long as the male isn’t constantly pestering the female and/or inflicting harm, in my opinion (not in everyone’s) they can stay together.
The other questions for you to consider are:
–how close to 50 grams is the female? If she’s significantly under 50 grams now (she may lose weight during the season), you should separate them so there won’t be more mating, though she will probably continue laying at least a few more clutches
–do you have an incubator, housing for offspring, extra food, resources for medical attention if necessary? If not, things could be tough, but you’ll have to figure out how to deal with the coming eggs.
Caitlin says:
April 6, 2017 at 5:59 pm
I have two geckos and they just laid two eggs close to a week ago. The first one we discovered had shriveled up like a raisin. The second one we found aboutique two days ago. It has a pretty big dent in it. We thought it was just from being buried inbetween the sand and moss. Is it normal? They stay at a temp of 80 or so, and the humitiy is fine. We flipped it over and it’s still there
Aliza says:
April 6, 2017 at 7:13 pm
what kind of geckos do you have? A dented egg may puff out again and be OK, or else it’s no good. The conventional wisdom is to incubate it until it either hatches or stinks. I”m not sure what you mean by “flipped it over” (unless you mean to check the dent on the bottom). It’s best not to turn gecko eggs, in general. You may want to consider googling “gecko breeding” (including the type of gecko you have) and reading some more extensive information.
Caitlin says:
April 6, 2017 at 7:18 pm
The male is an Australian Japanese and the female is a blizzard from what I understand. She was given to me by a friend to mate. My boyfriend flipped it over to the opposite side. The dent was originally on the bottom and now it’s towards the top of the tank
Aliza says:
April 6, 2017 at 9:24 pm
I’m still not sure what kind of gecko you’re talking about. “Blizzard” is one type, or “morph” of leopard gecko. I have never heard of an “Australian Japanese”. Most people say that the eggs should not be turned because it will drown the embryo. I have read the opinion of one person lately that leopard gecko (if that’s what you have) eggs can be turned, but I wouldn’t risk it. Anyway what’s done is done and hopefully you’ll eventually have a good outcome. Expect more eggs in about 2 weeks.
becky says:
April 21, 2017 at 6:39 pm
Do u have to take eggs out and put them in an incubator
Aliza says:
April 22, 2017 at 11:41 pm
The eggs have to be at a steady temperature between 80-88 without changing much. If the place where you have the eggs meets those conditions, then you can keep them where they are. If you’re keeping them in the cage, some people have been successful at hatching eggs in the cage, but the hatch rate is probably lower and you run the risk of the parents finding the babies before you do and eating them.
Barbara says:
April 27, 2017 at 10:39 pm
It’s so funny how everyone says to incubate the eggs and that they need moisture etc. Maybe so if you’re a breeder but, we were cleaning around the mango tree at my granny’s a couple weeks ago and found gecko eggs under a bunch of old wood and coconut shells, cold, dark and dreary, in dry sand/dirt. Mind you St. Lucia is hot throughout the day but the ground they were on is relatively cold and at night it gets pretty cold there as well.
I’m not sure how much this helps but it seems to me their natural habitat is where they won’t be disturbed, usually dark as night all the time, dirt/sand bed under boards or other debris where it’s not even remotely warm not even in the day when it’s generally hot is that area we found them in warm.
Aliza says:
April 27, 2017 at 10:48 pm
It’s definitely true that gecko eggs hatch well in their natural environment, or else there wouldn’t be any geckos in the wild! Some people successfully hatch eggs by letting the geckos lay in the enclosure and incubating them there. Also, different species of geckos require different conditions. For example, I’m running 2 incubators now: one is at 82F for my leopard gecko and other similar species eggs for which that is the low end (incubating for female). The other incubator is at 75 for my gargoyle gecko eggs. One interesting thing, though, is that it’s likely that in the wild a smaller percentage of gecko eggs hatch than in captivity. Our incubators provide ideal conditions so that most or all of our eggs hatch, but in the wild, only the eggs that end up in the best conditions hatch.
Barbara says:
April 28, 2017 at 12:00 pm
Perhaps but, given the mounds that are around my granny’s house, I’m skeptical. They’re literally everywhere.
Eastin says:
January 4, 2018 at 12:39 am
So a few days ago i bought a adult female leopard gecko from southern agriculture and unexpectedly and surprisingly she layed an egg today , im not sure if she got bred with the other geckos in her tank, or she just layed an infertal egg , i could really use some help and advice, aslo can you make infertal eggs fertal?? And if my egg is infertal should i still incubat it??
Aliza says:
January 4, 2018 at 1:03 am
If there was no male involved ever, the egg is infertile and there’s nothing you can do to make it fertile. If there was a male involved the egg may or may not be fertile and may or may not hatch. It needs to be in a place where the humidity is high and where there is a steady temperature somewhere between 80-88F. Most people put the egg in a closed container with some moist perlite or vermiculite and use an incubator for this, but some people have been successful putting the container somewhere in the house where the temps are steady and correct. You can candle the egg to see if it’s fertile. I recommend you do some internet research on “breeding leopard geckos” and see what you come up with. Especially if there was a male involved, the gecko is likely to lay a pair of eggs every 2 weeks for awhile. Even if you think the egg is infertile, if there’s away you can incubate it, you should until it either hatches or collapses and stinks. Good luck.
Massey says:
March 18, 2018 at 6:49 pm
My leopard gecko just recently laid eggs. They’re really yellow but I see a vein. I’m concerned because the shell is developed in some places, but not all, It’s not floppy or anything. It’s quite round and full.
Aliza says:
March 18, 2018 at 8:06 pm
Do you mean that the shell looks a bit translucent in some places? Sometimes that’s fine and sometimes it means that the female needs more calcium to form the eggs. Also, gecko eggs start out a bit soft and grow slowly through the incubation period.
brenda goodman says:
May 23, 2018 at 7:08 pm
War.can.i.git.laperd.Geckos.Eggs.at.i.wood.love.to.bie.sum
Aliza says:
May 23, 2018 at 8:51 pm
Since gecko eggs have to be kept still without rolling and have to be a a special temperature, it is unlikely that you would find eggs for sale. The only reliable way to get some is to get a pair of geckos and breed them. In that case you have to be sure you are able to incubate the eggs (with an incubator) and have enough space and money for housing the babies, feeding them and taking them to the vet if there’s a problem.
Corey "Core" G. says:
June 4, 2018 at 12:15 am
I have a pair of Geckos. One female leopard and one snow morph. My female laid 3 clutches of 2 eggs each time but despite my attempts at putting them into an incubator with a steady correct temperature and keeping a close eye on them, alas they did not hatch. Eventually they seemed to wrinkle and deflate a little. She just laid 1 egg about a week ago, to my surprise since I thought she was finished laying eggs, but when I put a light behind the egg it looked empty.
Corey "Core" G. says:
June 4, 2018 at 12:17 am
(Cont.) They all did actually. No red looking mass inside that I could see. I have this lone egg in the incubator of course but it doesn’t look like anything is in it so my hopes aren’t high. I’m not sure if I’m using too much moisture in the incubator or if the eggs just aren’t fertile. I’ve done extensive reading online about breeding but still I get no hatchings. Not sure what, if anything, in asking for. Any help would be appreciated. Thanx.
Aliza says:
June 4, 2018 at 8:03 pm
Breeding can be frustrating. If you never see anything in the egg, it’s likely it’s not fertile (though I have had hatches from eggs where I couldn’t see anything just after they were laid). I have had females who just don’t produce fertile eggs. I had one that I tried for 3 seasons with different males, and . . . nothing. It could be just a first-time issue. There’s always the chance it’s the male’s problem. I do have a pair of Coleonyx where it’s clearly the male who has the problem because when the female was with another male she did fine. You may just need to get a different female, assuming that your incubator is holding temperature well and the eggs aren’t soaking.
Corey "Core" G. says:
June 4, 2018 at 11:41 pm
The incubator is holding the temperature but I’m confused on how much moisture the incubator is supposed to have. There’s a good amount of moisture in it. I read to keep the lid closed but if I do that then there’s even more moisture in it. I’m starting to think maybe I should just leave the eggs in their tank and see what happens. This is her first time laying eggs so maybe it’s just that this year won’t produce any viable eggs.
Aliza says:
June 6, 2018 at 10:35 pm
What substrate are you using for the egg box in the incubator? Here’s a website that describes how much water to put in if you’re using perlite: http://albeysreptiles.com/incubate-eggs.htm
If you’re using vermiculite, it needs to be moist, but not so much that water drips out when you squeeze it.
If you’re using hatchrite, you’ll have to follow their directions.
Keep the lid closed and don’t put any holes in it. It’s OK if there is some condensation on the sides. Open the lid every week briefly for air exchange.
theresa keveson says:
June 12, 2018 at 3:59 pm
my female gecko just had two eggs an we have had her for 3 yrs now an I’m just learning about the eggs so do u touch them don’t touch them. Can u leave the eggs with the male an female.
Aliza says:
June 12, 2018 at 11:04 pm
Congratulations on the eggs. They need to incubate at a very steady temperature between 80-88F. Most people use an incubator to keep the temperatures steady. Some people find a place in their house where this will work and some people leave the eggs in with the male and the female. I think the hatch rate is lower that way (there’s too much chance the eggs will dry out or get stomped on by the geckos). Also, it’s possible that when the babies hatch the parents might eat them. It’s OK to pick the eggs up but, after the first day or so, it’s probably a good idea not to turn the eggs. Most people make a mark with a sharpie on the egg so they know which way is up. Do some more research on the internet about breeding and be sure to read the article if you haven’t already.
marjie says:
June 14, 2018 at 12:58 pm
Hi..thanks for the tips.
I have an egg in a container in the incubator. It is kinda floppy but still white with no marks or discoloration on it. It has been in there for 40 days. How do I know when to leave the container etc open to know if it hatched. I wouldn’t want it hatching in the container.
Thx
Aliza says:
June 14, 2018 at 10:02 pm
It’s fine if it hatches in the container. That’s where it’s supposed to hatch. Just keep checking on it. When I was breeding I would have geckos hatch while I was away for the weekend. It will be fine there.
Haley Wallace says:
June 16, 2018 at 9:57 pm
Hello! I have 4 leopard gecko eggs. One started to crack this morning around 9 am. I’m concerned because it’s now almost 11 pm and it still hasnt emerged. Should I try helping or just let it go?
Aliza says:
June 17, 2018 at 8:34 pm
In general, it’s best to let the hatchling come out if it’s going to come. Sometimes “helping” them out results in a weak hatchling that wasn’t meant to survive and may not survive anyway. It does happen sometimes (it’s happened to me) that the hatchling doesn’t make it through the hatching process, which, I feel, is nature’s way of preventing more weak animals.
sage says:
December 29, 2019 at 2:58 am
hello… so i was stupid and thought putting a male and female gecko in one cage was a good idea and now my female gecko just laid eggs and i’m not ready at all and i’m also only 13 and my family does not have any idea what to do ether and i don’t want to just throw them away. I have them in a container and i also have very wet eco earth in the container as well the container is in between two heat lamps. My gecko also moved the eggs so i don’t know what way there were facing when they were laid can you tell me what to do i really don’t want them to die.
Aliza says:
December 31, 2019 at 12:13 am
There are some things you can do to make things work out, but the biggest problem is that you may not have the ability to deal with breeding, hatching, feeding and housing a lot of geckos.
First, there is a very good chance that these first eggs are not fertile, so don’t get too worried about whether or not they’ll “die” because they may not be good to begin with (even my most reliable females often would lay eggs that weren’t fertile as the first clutch of the year). Realize that even if you’ve removed the male (I hope you have), the female may lay 2 eggs every 2 weeks for a number of times.
In my opinion, the best thing to do is to get in touch with either a local pet store (not a Petco or a Petsmart) if there is one near you and ask if they know of any gecko breeders in the area. You could also ask your local herp society or put an ad in craigslist to find someone that could take the eggs from you and incubate them.
Don’t worry about the female having moved the eggs. This early, it doesn’t matter if the eggs get turned a few times.
I will send some information about breeding leopard geckos to your email address if you really want to try it, but I do recommend you find someone else to take the eggs so things will be successful.
Victoria says:
May 5, 2020 at 11:35 pm
I have two Female Geckos and we use to gave two males but they never breeded can are Females still have babys? We would like to know becuase we arre wanting babys so for the once that we cant keep we give to good homes.
Aliza says:
May 6, 2020 at 9:53 pm
Female geckos can lay eggs whether or not there is a male to breed with. If you’re talking about leopard geckos, they do lay eggs sometimes but as far as I know these eggs are always infertile because there was no male. If you want to breed your leopard geckos, you will need to have a male and at least 1 female. There are other things you need to have and know that are very important:
–what genes do your leopard geckos have? Breeding without knowing this will not hurt the geckos, but producing geckos where we don’t know what genes they have just creates more “mutt” geckos. It’s not a big deal in the dog breeding world, but it does mess up things in the gecko breeding world for other breeders in general
–you will need to have enough money and do enough research to have a proper incubator and know how to use it, to house and feed a lot of baby geckos (a leopard gecko could produce anywhere from 0-20 or more babies in a season), to be prepared to take a gecko that’s not doing well to the vet and pay for that.
Because there are eggs involved that have to hatch, and because geckos do not care for their babies, it’s more involved than breeding cats, for example. Think really carefully and do a lot of research before you go ahead and breed.
kristin says:
May 11, 2020 at 5:50 pm
My leopard Gecko just laid eggs on mothers day. We are not prepared for this. Can we use a heat lamp and do a DYI incubator or does it need to be in a real one?
Aliza says:
May 11, 2020 at 8:26 pm
If you can set up something that will maintain a steady temperature (varying by no more than 1-2 degrees) of 80-88F and a container that will maintain high humidity then you can make your own. There are a number of videos about how to do this. A heat lamp may dry out the eggs too much. There’s no guarantee that these eggs are fertile and if you can’t get something together in time for these, there’s a good chance that your gecko will lay again in about 2 weeks. Consider getting a hobovator which is about $50 and works well. Also, google “breeding leopard geckos” and read up on how to do it
Colianna-kay Travis says:
May 18, 2020 at 3:39 pm
Hello
My Leo’s laid eggs a few days ago
I made a diy incubator that is keep humidity and heat well
They are 2 yrs and have been with a male leo since birth from a different clutch
I checked the eggs and saw the embryos
One egg is alittle softer then the other
The other is a bit harder and has some dents in it but still is fertil
I am incubating both but my question is
Can you check them in like a week or so to see if they are still alive?
I dont know when she laid them as I wasnt expecting her to lay eggs till the next week so idk if it was an hour or 10 hours after she laid them
She was still with the eggs when I found them
The enclosure she laid them in was anywhere from 70-85 degrees
I cant be certain how cold or hot it was where she laid them I didnt temp them
I had to remove them using some water from the spot she laid them because they where stuck to the ground she didnt lay them in dirt
Can you email me if you get this
Thank you
Kim Vermillion says:
July 9, 2020 at 3:39 pm
I have a male leopars gecko and a female albino rain water leopard gecko. She laid an egg 3 days ago. I transferred it to incubate. Just curious as to what the humidity is supposed to be. I know the temperature. I am new at this and want to know and learn everything possible.
Aliza says:
July 9, 2020 at 9:57 pm
The humidity is likely going to be over 80%. I never measured humidity. If you put the egg in an egg container with a moist substrate (perlite – follow the directions at this website:http://www.albeysreptiles.com/incubate-eggs.htm; other substrates – moist but not wet), with a tight cover and no holes in the cover and if you open the container weekly for a few seconds for air exchange, it should be fine
Liam says:
August 1, 2020 at 2:55 pm
My leopard gecko laid two eggs. One looks like it was 3/4 eaten and the other one looked nice and it was fertilized. The one that was fertile is now dented. It’s only been one day. Will it survive?
Aliza says:
August 1, 2020 at 8:46 pm
Well it depends on where you put it, so please provide more details about where the egg is. It needs to be in a place with high humidity (obtained by putting it in a closed container with moist substrate), where a steady temperature between 80-88 can be achieved (usually an incubator but there are some other less reliable options). Even if everything is perfect, if the egg isn’t fertile it will dent and be no good.
Bell says:
March 14, 2021 at 9:07 am
Hi. My hubbys leopard gecko laid 2 eggs. 1 hatched the other didn’t. Should they hatch the same day? Or do they hatch when they’re ready?. Should we cut it open?
Aliza says:
March 14, 2021 at 7:18 pm
They can hatch a day or two off from each other though they usually hatch the same day. Sometimes one egg is fertile and the other isn’t, or the one that doesn’t hatch starts out OK and then the embryo dies. The problem with cutting it open is that if there’s a hatchling in there that needs a few more days, or a hatchling that really isn’t going to be viable, you end up with a problem and/or a sad outcome. The best advice is to leave the egg in the incubator until it either hatches, or collapses and smells bad. Good luck on future hatches.
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Hey there! We’re experiencing a very high volume of emails from our COVID-19 fundraisers and as a result, our response times are slow. We put together a list of common questions to help you help yourself in the meantime - power!
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Yes! We'll continue doing Bandcamp Fridays in 2021, on December 3rd.
When are the next Bandcamp Friday fundraisers?
We're running COVID-19 / Bandcamp Friday fundraisers for artists and labels in 2021 on December 3rd from midnight to midnight PDT. You may be wondering, is it Bandcamp Friday right now? The completed fundraisers were March 20, May 1, June 5, July 3, August 7, September 4, October 2, November 6, and December 4 in 2020, and March 5th, April 2nd, May 7th, August 6th, September 3rd, October 1st in 2021, and November 5th.
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An unprecedented number of music fans have converged on Bandcamp to buy music and support artists during our fundraisers this year. We’re experiencing a very high volume of emails from our COVID-19 fundraisers and as a result, our response times are slow.
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This article is about scientific consensus on the current climate change, or global warming. For public perception and controversy, see Public opinion on climate change and Global warming controversy.
Global mean land-ocean temperature change since 1880, relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The black line is the annual mean and the red line is the 5-year running mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. Source: NASA GISS
The temperature record of the past 2000 years from several different proxy methods.
Variations in temperature, CO2 and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450,000 years
The scientific opinion on climate change is the overall judgment among scientists regarding whether global warming is occurring, and (if so) its causes and probable consequences. This scientific opinion is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these respected reports and surveys.[1]
The scientific consensus is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and that it is extremely likely (meaning, of at least 95% probability or higher) that humans are causing most of it through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels. In addition, it is likely that some potential further greenhouse gas warming has been offset by increased aerosols.[2][3][4][5]
National and international science academies and scientific societies have assessed current scientific opinion on global warming. These assessments are generally consistent with the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summarized:
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as evidenced by increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, the widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.[6]
Most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human activities.[7]
Benefits and costs of climate change for [human] society will vary widely by location and scale.[8] Some of the effects in temperate and polar regions will be positive and others elsewhere will be negative.[8] Overall, net effects are more likely to be strongly negative with larger or more rapid warming.[8]
The range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.[9]
The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g. land-use change, pollution, fragmentation of natural systems, over-exploitation of resources).[10]
Some scientific bodies have recommended specific policies to governments and science can play a role in informing an effective response to climate change. Policy decisions, however, may require value judgements and so are not included in the scientific opinion.[11][12]
No scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opinion dissenting from any of these main points. The last national or international scientific body to drop dissent was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists,[13] which in 2007[14] updated its statement to its current non-committal position.[15] Some other organizations, primarily those focusing on geology, also hold non-committal positions.
Contents
1 Synthesis reports
1.1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2014
1.2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007
1.3 U.S. Global Change Research Program
1.4 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
2 Policy
3 Statements by scientific organizations of national or international standing
3.1 Concurring
3.1.1 Academies of science (general science)
3.1.1.1 Joint national science academy statements
3.1.1.2 Polish Academy of Sciences
3.1.1.3 Additional national science academy and society statements
3.1.1.4 International science academies
3.1.2 Physical and chemical sciences
3.1.3 Earth sciences
3.1.3.1 American Geophysical Union
3.1.3.2 American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America
3.1.3.3 European Federation of Geologists
3.1.3.4 European Geosciences Union
3.1.3.5 Geological Society of America
3.1.3.6 Geological Society of London
3.1.3.7 International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
3.1.3.8 National Association of Geoscience Teachers
3.1.4 Meteorology and oceanography
3.1.4.1 American Meteorological Society
3.1.4.2 Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
3.1.4.3 Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
3.1.4.4 Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
3.1.4.5 Royal Meteorological Society (UK)
3.1.4.6 World Meteorological Organization
3.1.4.7 American Quaternary Association
3.1.4.8 International Union for Quaternary Research
3.1.5 Biology and life sciences
3.1.6 Human health
3.1.7 Miscellaneous
3.2 Non-committal
3.2.1 American Association of Petroleum Geologists
3.2.2 American Institute of Professional Geologists
3.2.3 Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences
3.2.4 Geological Society of Australia
3.3 Dissenting
4 Surveys of scientists and scientific literature
5 Scientific consensus
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Synthesis reports
Synthesis reports are assessments of scientific literature that compile the results of a range of stand-alone studies in order to achieve a broad level of understanding, or to describe the state of knowledge of a given subject.[16]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2014
Main articles: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers stated that warming of the climate system is 'unequivocal' with changes unprecedented over decades to millennia, including warming of the atmosphere and oceans, loss of snow and ice, and sea level rise. Greenhouse gas emissions, driven largely by economic and population growth, have led to greenhouse gas concentrations that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. These, together with other anthropogenic drivers, are "extremely likely" to have been the dominant cause of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century.[17]
It said that
Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks.[17]
Reporting on the publication of the report, The Guardian said that
In the end it all boils down to risk management. The stronger our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the lower the risk of extreme climate impacts. The higher our emissions, the larger climate changes we'll face, which also means more expensive adaptation, more species extinctions, more food and water insecurities, more income losses, more conflicts, and so forth.[18]
The New York Times reported that
In Washington, President Obama's science adviser, John P. Holdren, cited increased scientific confidence "that the kinds of harm already being experienced from climate change will continue to worsen unless and until comprehensive and vigorous action to reduce emissions is undertaken worldwide."[19]
It went on to say that Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general, had declared his intention to call a meeting of heads of state in 2014 to develop such a treaty. The last such meeting, in Copenhagen in 2009, the NY Times reported, had ended in disarray.[19]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007
In February 2007, the IPCC released a summary of the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report. According to this summary, the Fourth Assessment Report found that human actions are "very likely" the cause of global warming, meaning a 90% or greater probability. Global warming in this case was indicated by an increase of 0.75 degrees in average global temperatures over the last 100 years.[20]
The New York Times reported that "the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, 'very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950".[21]
A retired journalist for The New York Times, William K. Stevens wrote: "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel's parlance, this level of certainty is labeled 'very likely'. Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression.".[22]
The Associated Press summarized the position on sea level rise:
On sea levels, the report projects rises of 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century. An additional 3.9 to 7.8 inches are possible if recent, surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues.[23]
U.S. Global Change Research Program
formerly the Climate Change Science Program
The U.S. Global Change Research Program reported in June 2009[24] that:
Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities.
The report, which is about the effects that climate change is having in the United States, also says:
Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7°F. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested.
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
In 2004, the intergovernmental Arctic Council and the non-governmental International Arctic Science Committee released the synthesis report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment:[25]
Climate conditions in the past provide evidence that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are associated with rising global temperatures. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping ("greenhouse") gases in the atmosphere...There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.[26]
Policy
See also: Avoiding dangerous climate change
There is an extensive discussion in the scientific literature on what policies might be effective in responding to climate change.[27] Some scientific bodies have recommended specific policies to governments (refer to the later sections of the article).[28] The natural and social sciences can play a role in informing an effective response to climate change.[11] However, policy decisions may require value judgements.[11] For example, the US National Research Council has commented:[12]
The question of whether there exists a "safe" level of concentration of greenhouse gases cannot be answered directly because it would require a value judgment of what constitutes an acceptable risk to human welfare and ecosystems in various parts of the world, as well as a more quantitative assessment of the risks and costs associated with the various impacts of global warming. In general, however, risk increases with increases in both the rate and the magnitude of climate change.
This article mostly focuses on the views of natural scientists. However, social scientists,[27] medical experts,[29] engineers[27] and philosophers[30] have also commented on climate change science and policies. Climate change policy is discussed in several articles: climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, climate engineering, politics of global warming, climate ethics, and economics of global warming.
Statements by scientific organizations of national or international standing
See also: Global warming controversy § Mainstream scientific position, and challenges to it
This is a list of scientific bodies of national or international standing, that have issued formal statements of opinion, classifies those organizations according to whether they concur with the IPCC view, are non-committal, or dissent from it.
Concurring
Academies of science (general science)
Since 2001, 34 national science academies, three regional academies, and both the international InterAcademy Council and International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences have made formal declarations confirming human induced global warming and urging nations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The 34 national science academy statements include 33 who have signed joint science academy statements and one individual declaration by the Polish Academy of Sciences in 2007.
Joint national science academy statements
2001 Following the publication of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, seventeen national science academies issued a joint statement, entitled "The Science of Climate Change", explicitly acknowledging the IPCC position as representing the scientific consensus on climate change science. The statement, printed in an editorial in the journal Science on May 18, 2001,[31] was signed by the science academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.[32]
2005 The national science academies of the G8 nations, plus Brazil, China and India, three of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the developing world, signed a statement on the global response to climate change. The statement stresses that the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action, and explicitly endorsed the IPCC consensus. The eleven signatories were the science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.[33]
2007 In preparation for the 33rd G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a declaration referencing the position of the 2005 joint science academies' statement, and acknowledging the confirmation of their previous conclusion by recent research. Following the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the declaration states, "It is unequivocal that the climate is changing, and it is very likely that this is predominantly caused by the increasing human interference with the atmosphere. These changes will transform the environmental conditions on Earth unless counter-measures are taken." The thirteen signatories were the national science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.[34]
2007 In preparation for the 33rd G8 summit, the Network of African Science Academies submitted a joint “statement on sustainability, energy efficiency, and climate change” :
A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change. The IPCC should be congratulated for the contribution it has made to public understanding of the nexus that exists between energy, climate and sustainability.
— The thirteen signatories were the science academies of Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, as well as the African Academy of Sciences, [35]
2008 In preparation for the 34th G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a declaration reiterating the position of the 2005 joint science academies’ statement, and reaffirming “that climate change is happening and that anthropogenic warming is influencing many physical and biological systems.” Among other actions, the declaration urges all nations to “(t)ake appropriate economic and policy measures to accelerate transition to a low carbon society and to encourage and effect changes in individual and national behaviour.” The thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 joint statement.[36]
2009 In advance of the UNFCCC negotiations to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a joint statement declaring, "Climate change and sustainable energy supply are crucial challenges for the future of humanity. It is essential that world leaders agree on the emission reductions needed to combat negative consequences of anthropogenic climate change". The statement references the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and asserts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid." The thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 and 2008 joint statements.[28]
Polish Academy of Sciences
In December 2007, the General Assembly of the Polish Academy of Sciences (Polska Akademia Nauk), which has not been a signatory to joint national science academy statements issued a declaration endorsing the IPCC conclusions, and stating:
it is the duty of Polish science and the national government to, in a thoughtful, organized and active manner, become involved in realisation of these ideas.
Problems of global warming, climate change, and their various negative impacts on human life and on the functioning of entire societies are one of the most dramatic challenges of modern times.
PAS General Assembly calls on the national scientific communities and the national government to actively support Polish participation in this important endeavor.[37]
Additional national science academy and society statements
American Association for the Advancement of Science as the world's largest general scientific society, adopted an official statement on climate change in 2006:
The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society....The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.[38]
Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies in 2008 published FASTS Statement on Climate Change[39] which states:
Global climate change is real and measurable...To reduce the global net economic, environmental and social losses in the face of these impacts, the policy objective must remain squarely focused on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels through the reduction of emissions. The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity.
United States National Research Council through its Committee on the Science of Climate Change in 2001, published Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions.[40] This report explicitly endorses the IPCC view of attribution of recent climate change as representing the view of the scientific community:
The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21st century... The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue.[40]
Royal Society of New Zealand having signed onto the first joint science academy statement in 2001, released a separate statement in 2008 in order to clear up "the controversy over climate change and its causes, and possible confusion among the public":
The globe is warming because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Measurements show that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are well above levels seen for many thousands of years. Further global climate changes are predicted, with impacts expected to become more costly as time progresses. Reducing future impacts of climate change will require substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.[41]
The Royal Society of the United Kingdom has not changed its concurring stance reflected in its participation in joint national science academies' statements on anthropogenic global warming. According to the Telegraph, "The most prestigious group of scientists in the country was forced to act after fellows complained that doubts over man made global warming were not being communicated to the public".[42] In May 2010, it announced that it "is presently drafting a new public facing document on climate change, to provide an updated status report on the science in an easily accessible form, also addressing the levels of certainty of key components."[43] The society says that it is three years since the last such document was published and that, after an extensive process of debate and review,[44][45] the new document was printed in September 2010. It summarises the current scientific evidence and highlights the areas where the science is well established, where there is still some debate, and where substantial uncertainties remain. The society has stated that "this is not the same as saying that the climate science itself is in error – no Fellows have expressed such a view to the RS".[43] The introduction includes this statement:
There is strong evidence that the warming of the Earth over the last half-century has been caused largely by human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use, including agriculture and deforestation.
International science academies
African Academy of Sciences in 2007 was a signatory to the "statement on sustainability, energy efficiency, and climate change". This joint statement of African science academies, was organized through the Network of African Science Academies. It's stated goal was "to convey information and spur action on the occasion of the G8 Summit in Heiligendamm, Germany, in June 2007".
A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change.[46]
European Academy of Sciences and Arts in 2007 issued a formal declaration on climate change titled Let's Be Honest:
Human activity is most likely responsible for climate warming. Most of the climatic warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Documented long-term climate changes include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. The above development potentially has dramatic consequences for mankind’s future.[47]
European Science Foundation in a 2007 position paper [48] states:
There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human activities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change... On-going and increased efforts to mitigate climate change through reduction in greenhouse gases are therefore crucial.
InterAcademy Council As the representative of the world’s scientific and engineering academies,[49][50] the InterAcademy Council issued a report in 2007 titled Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future.
Current patterns of energy resources and energy usage are proving detrimental to the long-term welfare of humanity. The integrity of essential natural systems is already at risk from climate change caused by the atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases.[51] Concerted efforts should be mounted for improving energy efficiency and reducing the carbon intensity of the world economy.[52]
International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS) in 2007, issued a Statement on Environment and Sustainable Growth:[53]
As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human-produced emission of greenhouse gases and this warming will continue unabated if present anthropogenic emissions continue or, worse, expand without control. CAETS, therefore, endorses the many recent calls to decrease and control greenhouse gas emissions to an acceptable level as quickly as possible.
Physical and chemical sciences
American Chemical Society[54]
American Institute of Physics[55]
American Physical Society[56]
Australian Institute of Physics[57]
European Physical Society[58]
Earth sciences
American Geophysical Union
The American Geophysical Union (AGU) statement, adopted by the society in 2003, revised in 2007,[59] and revised and expanded in 2013,[60] affirms that rising levels of greenhouse gases have caused and will continue to cause the global surface temperature to be warmer:
“Human activities are changing Earth’s climate. At the global level, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases have increased sharply since the Industrial Revolution. Fossil fuel burning dominates this increase. Human-caused increases in greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the observed global average surface warming of roughly 0.8°C (1.5°F) over the past 140 years. Because natural processes cannot quickly remove some of these gases (notably carbon dioxide) from the atmosphere, our past, present, and future emissions will influence the climate system for millennia.
While important scientific uncertainties remain as to which particular impacts will be experienced where, no uncertainties are known that could make the impacts of climate change inconsequential. Furthermore, surprise outcomes, such as the unexpectedly rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice, may entail even more dramatic changes than anticipated."
American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America
In May, 2011, the American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society of America (CSSA), and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA) issued a joint position statement on climate change as it relates to agriculture:
A comprehensive body of scientific evidence indicates beyond reasonable doubt that global climate change is now occurring and that its manifestations threaten the stability of societies as well as natural and managed ecosystems. Increases in ambient temperatures and changes in related processes are directly linked to rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere.
Unless the emissions of GHGs are curbed significantly, their concentrations will continue to rise, leading to changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables that will undoubtedly affect agriculture around the world.
Climate change has the potential to increase weather variability as well as gradually increase global temperatures. Both of these impacts have the potential to negatively impact the adaptability and resilience of the world’s food production capacity; current research indicates climate change is already reducing the productivity of vulnerable cropping systems.[61]
European Federation of Geologists
In 2008, the European Federation of Geologists[62] (EFG) issued the position paper Carbon Capture and geological Storage :
The EFG recognizes the work of the IPCC and other organizations, and subscribes to the major findings that climate change is happening, is predominantly caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO2, and poses a significant threat to human civilization.
It is clear that major efforts are necessary to quickly and strongly reduce CO2 emissions. The EFG strongly advocates renewable and sustainable energy production, including geothermal energy, as well as the need for increasing energy efficiency.
CCS [Carbon Capture and geological Storage] should also be regarded as a bridging technology, facilitating the move towards a carbon free economy.[63]
European Geosciences Union
In 2005, the Divisions of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) issued a position statement in support of the joint science academies’ statement on global response to climate change. The statement refers to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as "the main representative of the global scientific community", and asserts that the IPCC
represents the state-of-the-art of climate science supported by the major science academies around the world and by the vast majority of science researchers and investigators as documented by the peer-reviewed scientific literature.[64]
Additionally, in 2008, the EGU issued a position statement on ocean acidification which states, "Ocean acidification is already occurring today and will continue to intensify, closely tracking atmospheric CO2 increase. Given the potential threat to marine ecosystems and its ensuing impact on human society and economy, especially as it acts in conjunction with anthropogenic global warming, there is an urgent need for immediate action." The statement then advocates for strategies "to limit future release of CO2 to the atmosphere and/or enhance removal of excess CO2 from the atmosphere."[65]
Geological Society of America
In 2006, the Geological Society of America adopted a position statement on global climate change. It amended this position on April 20, 2010 with more explicit comments on need for CO2 reduction.
Decades of scientific research have shown that climate can change from both natural and anthropogenic causes. The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s. If current trends continue, the projected increase in global temperature by the end of the twentyfirst century will result in large impacts on humans and other species. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change will require a combination of adaptation to the changes that are likely to occur and global reductions of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic sources.[66]
Geological Society of London
In November 2010, the Geological Society of London issued the position statement Climate change: evidence from the geological record:
The last century has seen a rapidly growing global population and much more intensive use of resources, leading to greatly increased emissions of gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, from the burning of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal), and from agriculture, cement production and deforestation. Evidence from the geological record is consistent with the physics that shows that adding large amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere warms the world and may lead to: higher sea levels and flooding of low-lying coasts; greatly changed patterns of rainfall; increased acidity of the oceans; and decreased oxygen levels in seawater.
There is now widespread concern that the Earth’s climate will warm further, not only because of the lingering effects of the added carbon already in the system, but also because of further additions as human population continues to grow. Life on Earth has survived large climate changes in the past, but extinctions and major redistribution of species have been associated with many of them. When the human population was small and nomadic, a rise in sea level of a few metres would have had very little effect on Homo sapiens. With the current and growing global population, much of which is concentrated in coastal cities, such a rise in sea level would have a drastic effect on our complex society, especially if the climate were to change as suddenly as it has at times in the past. Equally, it seems likely that as warming continues some areas may experience less precipitation leading to drought. With both rising seas and increasing drought, pressure for human migration could result on a large scale.[67]
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
In July 2007, the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) adopted a resolution titled “The Urgency of Addressing Climate Change”. In it, the IUGG concurs with the “comprehensive and widely accepted and endorsed scientific assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and regional and national bodies, which have firmly established, on the basis of scientific evidence, that human activities are the primary cause of recent climate change.” They state further that the “continuing reliance on combustion of fossil fuels as the world’s primary source of energy will lead to much higher atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, which will, in turn, cause significant increases in surface temperature, sea level, ocean acidification, and their related consequences to the environment and society.”[68]
National Association of Geoscience Teachers
In July 2009, the National Association of Geoscience Teachers[69] (NAGT) adopted a position statement on climate change in which they assert that "Earth's climate is changing [and] "that present warming trends are largely the result of human activities":
NAGT strongly supports and will work to promote education in the science of climate change, the causes and effects of current global warming, and the immediate need for policies and actions that reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.[70]
Meteorology and oceanography
American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society (AMS) statement adopted by their council in 2012 concluded:
There is unequivocal evidence that Earth’s lower atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; sea level is rising; and snow cover, mountain glaciers, and Arctic sea ice are shrinking. The dominant cause of the warming since the 1950s is human activities. This scientific finding is based on a large and persuasive body of research. The observed warming will be irreversible for many years into the future, and even larger temperature increases will occur as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. The ongoing warming will increase risks and stresses to human societies, economies, ecosystems, and wildlife through the 21st century and beyond, making it imperative that society respond to a changing climate. To inform decisions on adaptation and mitigation, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the global climate system and our ability to project future climate through continued and improved monitoring and research. This is especially true for smaller (seasonal and regional) scales and weather and climate extremes, and for important hydroclimatic variables such as precipitation and water availability.
Technological, economic, and policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of future impacts of climate change. Science-based decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. National and international policy discussions should include consideration of the best ways to both adapt to and mitigate climate change. Mitigation will reduce the amount of future climate change and the risk of impacts that are potentially large and dangerous. At the same time, some continued climate change is inevitable, and policy responses should include adaptation to climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in accounting for our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life.[71]
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
The Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society has issued a Statement on Climate Change, wherein they conclude:
Global climate change and global warming are real and observable ... It is highly likely that those human activities that have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been largely responsible for the observed warming since 1950. The warming associated with increases in greenhouse gases originating from human activity is called the enhanced greenhouse effect. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by more than 30% since the start of the industrial age and is higher now than at any time in at least the past 650,000 years. This increase is a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity.”[72]
Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
In November 2005, the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) issued a letter to the Prime Minister of Canada stating that
We concur with the climate science assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 ... We endorse the conclusions of the IPCC assessment that 'There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities'. ... There is increasingly unambiguous evidence of changing climate in Canada and around the world. There will be increasing impacts of climate change on Canada’s natural ecosystems and on our socio-economic activities. Advances in climate science since the 2001 IPCC Assessment have provided more evidence supporting the need for action and development of a strategy for adaptation to projected changes.[73]
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
In November 2009, a letter to the Canadian Parliament by The Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society states:
Rigorous international research, including work carried out and supported by the Government of Canada, reveals that greenhouse gases resulting from human activities contribute to the warming of the atmosphere and the oceans and constitute a serious risk to the health and safety of our society, as well as having an impact on all life.[74]
Royal Meteorological Society (UK)
In February 2007, after the release of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, the Royal Meteorological Society issued an endorsement of the report. In addition to referring to the IPCC as "[the] world’s best climate scientists", they stated that climate change is happening as “the result of emissions since industrialization and we have already set in motion the next 50 years of global warming – what we do from now on will determine how worse it will get.”[75]
World Meteorological Organization
In its Statement at the Twelfth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change presented on November 15, 2006, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms the need to “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” The WMO concurs that “scientific assessments have increasingly reaffirmed that human activities are indeed changing the composition of the atmosphere, in particular through the burning of fossil fuels for energy production and transportation.” The WMO concurs that “the present atmospheric concentration of CO2 was never exceeded over the past 420,000 years;” and that the IPCC “assessments provide the most authoritative, up-to-date scientific advice.” [76]
American Quaternary Association
The American Quaternary Association (AMQUA) has stated
Few credible Scientists now doubt that humans have influenced the documented rise of global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution,” citing “the growing body of evidence that warming of the atmosphere, especially over the past 50 years, is directly impacted by human activity.[77]
International Union for Quaternary Research
The statement on climate change issued by the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) reiterates the conclusions of the IPCC, and urges all nations to take prompt action in line with the UNFCCC principles.
Human activities are now causing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases — including carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide — to rise well above pre-industrial levels….Increases in greenhouse gases are causing temperatures to rise…The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action….Minimizing the amount of this carbon dioxide reaching the atmosphere presents a huge challenge but must be a global priority.[78]
Biology and life sciences
Life science organizations have outlined the dangers climate change pose to wildlife.
American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians[79]
American Institute of Biological Sciences. In October 2009, the leaders of 18 US scientific societies and organizations sent an open letter to the United States Senate reaffirming the scientific consensus that climate change is occurring and is primarily caused by human activities. The American Institute of Biological Sciences (AIBS) adopted this letter as their official position statement.[80][81] The letter goes on to warn of predicted impacts on the United States such as sea level rise and increases in extreme weather events, water scarcity, heat waves, wildfires, and the disturbance of biological systems. It then advocates for a dramatic reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases.[82]
American Society for Microbiology[83]
Australian Coral Reef Society[84]
Institute of Biology (UK)[85]
Society of American Foresters issued two position statements pertaining to climate change in which they cite the IPCC[86] and the UNFCCC.[87]
The Wildlife Society (international)[88]
Human health
A number of health organizations have warned about the numerous negative health effects of global warming
American Academy of Pediatrics[89]
American College of Preventive Medicine[90]
American Medical Association[91]
American Public Health Association[92]
Australian Medical Association in 2004[93] and in 2008[94]
World Federation of Public Health Associations[95]
World Health Organization[96]
There is now widespread agreement that the Earth is warming, due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activity. It is also clear that current trends in energy use, development, and population growth will lead to continuing – and more severe – climate change.
The changing climate will inevitably affect the basic requirements for maintaining health: clean air and water, sufficient food and adequate shelter. Each year, about 800,000 people die from causes attributable to urban air pollution, 1.8 million from diarrhoea resulting from lack of access to clean water supply, sanitation, and poor hygiene, 3.5 million from malnutrition and approximately 60,000 in natural disasters. A warmer and more variable climate threatens to lead to higher levels of some air pollutants, increase transmission of diseases through unclean water and through contaminated food, to compromise agricultural production in some of the least developed countries, and increase the hazards of extreme weather.
Miscellaneous
A number of other national scientific societies have also endorsed the opinion of the IPCC:
American Astronomical Society[97]
American Statistical Association[98]
Canadian Council of Professional Engineers [99]
The Institution of Engineers Australia[100]
International Association for Great Lakes Research[101]
Institute of Professional Engineers New Zealand[102]
The World Federation of Engineering Organizations (WFEO)
Non-committal
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
As of June 2007, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Position Statement on climate change stated:
the AAPG membership is divided on the degree of influence that anthropogenic CO2 has on recent and potential global temperature increases ... Certain climate simulation models predict that the warming trend will continue, as reported through NAS, AGU, AAAS and AMS. AAPG respects these scientific opinions but wants to add that the current climate warming projections could fall within well-documented natural variations in past climate and observed temperature data. These data do not necessarily support the maximum case scenarios forecast in some models.[103]
Prior to the adoption of this statement, the AAPG was the only major scientific organization that rejected the finding of significant human influence on recent climate, according to a statement by the Council of the American Quaternary Association.[13] Explaining the plan for a revision, AAPG president Lee Billingsly wrote in March 2007:
Members have threatened to not renew their memberships… if AAPG does not alter its position on global climate change... And I have been told of members who already have resigned in previous years because of our current global climate change position… The current policy statement is not supported by a significant number of our members and prospective members.[104]
AAPG President John Lorenz announced the "sunsetting" of AAPG’s Global Climate Change Committee in January 2010. The AAPG Executive Committee determined:
Climate change is peripheral at best to our science […] AAPG does not have credibility in that field […] and as a group we have no particular knowledge of global atmospheric geophysics.[105]
American Institute of Professional Geologists
In 2009, the American Institute of Professional Geologists[106] (AIPG) sent a statement to President Barack Obama and other US government officials:
The geological professionals in AIPG recognize that climate change is occurring and has the potential to yield catastrophic impacts if humanity is not prepared to address those impacts. It is also recognized that climate change will occur regardless of the cause. The sooner a defensible scientific understanding can be developed, the better equipped humanity will be to develop economically viable and technically effective methods to support the needs of society.[107]
Concerned that the original statement issued in March 2009 was too ambiguous, AIPG’s National Executive Committee approved a revised position statement issued in January 2010:
The geological professionals in AIPG recognize that climate change is occurring regardless of cause. AIPG supports continued research into all forces driving climate change.[108]
In March 2010, AIPG’s Executive Director issued a statement regarding polarization of opinions on climate change within the membership and announced that the AIPG Executive had made a decision to cease publication of articles and opinion pieces concerning climate change in AIPG’s news journal, The Professional Geologist.[109] The Executive Director said that “the question of anthropogenicity of climate change is contentious.”[110]
Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences
The science of global climate change is still evolving and our understanding of this vital Earth system is not as developed as is the case for other Earth systems such as plate tectonics. What is known with certainty is that regardless of the causes, our global climate will continue to change for the foreseeable future... The level of CO2 in our atmosphere is now greater than at any time in the past 500,000 years; there will be consequences for our global climate and natural systems as a result.[111]
Geological Society of Australia
After a long and extensive and extended consultation with society members, the GSA executive committee has decided not to proceed with a climate change position statement.[112]
Dissenting
See also: List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming
As of 2007[update], when the American Association of Petroleum Geologists released a revised statement,[14] no scientific body of national or international scientists rejects the findings of human-induced effects on climate change.[13][15]
Surveys of scientists and scientific literature
Summary of opinions from climate and earth scientists regarding climate change. Click to see a more detailed summary of the sources.
Just over 97% of published climate researchers say humans are causing most global warming.[113][114][115]
Main article: Surveys of scientists' views on climate change
Various surveys have been conducted to evaluate scientific opinion on global warming. They have concluded that the majority of scientists support the idea of anthropogenic climate change.
In 2004, the geologist and historian of science Naomi Oreskes summarized a study of the scientific literature on climate change.[116] She analyzed 928 abstracts of papers from refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003 and concluded that there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change.
Oreskes divided the abstracts into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Seventy-five per cent of the abstracts were placed in the first three categories (either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view); 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, thus taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. None of the abstracts disagreed with the consensus position, which the author found to be "remarkable". According to the report, "authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that point."
In 2007, Harris Interactive surveyed 489 randomly selected members of either the American Meteorological Society or the American Geophysical Union for the Statistical Assessment Service (STATS) at George Mason University. 97% of the scientists surveyed agreed that global temperatures had increased during the past 100 years; 84% said they personally believed human-induced warming was occurring, and 74% agreed that "currently available scientific evidence" substantiated its occurrence. Catastrophic effects in 50–100 years would likely be observed according to 41%, while 44% thought the effects would be moderate and about 13 percent saw relatively little danger. 5% said they thought human activity did not contribute to greenhouse warming.[117][118][119][120]
Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch conducted a survey in August 2008 of 2058 climate scientists from 34 different countries.[121] A web link with a unique identifier was given to each respondent to eliminate multiple responses. A total of 373 responses were received giving an overall response rate of 18.2%. No paper on climate change consensus based on this survey has been published yet (February 2010), but one on another subject has been published based on the survey.[122]
The survey was composed of 76 questions split into a number of sections. There were sections on the demographics of the respondents, their assessment of the state of climate science, how good the science is, climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation, their opinion of the IPCC, and how well climate science was being communicated to the public. Most of the answers were on a scale from 1 to 7 from 'not at all' to 'very much'.
To the question "How convinced are you that climate change, whether natural or anthropogenic, is occurring now?", 67.1% said they very much agreed, 26.7% agreed to some large extent, 6.2% said to they agreed to some small extent (2–4), none said they did not agree at all. To the question "How convinced are you that most of recent or near future climate change is, or will be, a result of anthropogenic causes?" the responses were 34.6% very much agree, 48.9% agreeing to a large extent, 15.1% to a small extent, and 1.35% not agreeing at all.
A poll performed by Peter Doran and Maggie Kendall Zimmerman at University of Illinois at Chicago received replies from 3,146 of the 10,257 polled Earth scientists. Results were analyzed globally and by specialization. 76 out of 79 climatologists who "listed climate science as their area of expertise and who also have published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change" believed that mean global temperatures had risen compared to pre-1800s levels. Seventy-five of 77 believed that human activity is a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures. Among all respondents, 90% agreed that temperatures have risen compared to pre-1800 levels, and 82% agreed that humans significantly influence the global temperature. Economic geologists and meteorologists were among the biggest doubters, with only 47 percent and 64 percent, respectively, believing in significant human involvement. The authors summarised the findings:
It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes.[123]
A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States (PNAS) reviewed publication and citation data for 1,372 climate researchers and drew the following two conclusions:
(i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC (Anthropogenic Climate Change) outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.[124]
A 2013 paper in Environmental Research Letters reviewed 11,944 abstracts of scientific papers matching "global warming" or "global climate change". They found 4,014 which discussed the cause of recent global warming, and of these 97.1% endorsed the consensus position.[125]
James L. Powell, a former member of the National Science Board and current executive director of the National Physical Science Consortium, analyzed published research on global warming and climate change between 1991 and 2012 and found that of the 13,950 articles in peer-reviewed journals, only 24 rejected anthropogenic global warming.[126] A follow-up analysis looking at 2,258 peer-reviewed climate articles with 9,136 authors published between November 2012 and December 2013 revealed that only one of the 9,136 authors rejected anthropogenic global warming.[127]
Scientific consensus
See also: Scientific consensus
A question that frequently arises in popular discussion of climate change is whether there is a scientific consensus on climate change.[1] Several scientific organizations have explicitly used the term "consensus" in their statements:
American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2006: "The conclusions in this statement reflect the scientific consensus represented by, for example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the Joint National Academies' statement."[38]
US National Academy of Sciences: "In the judgment of most climate scientists, Earth’s warming in recent decades has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. ... On climate change, [the National Academies’ reports] have assessed consensus findings on the science..."[128]
Joint Science Academies' statement, 2005: "We recognise the international scientific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."[129]
Joint Science Academies' statement, 2001: "The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. We recognise IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information on climate change and its causes, and we endorse its method of achieving this consensus."[32]
American Meteorological Society, 2003: "The nature of science is such that there is rarely total agreement among scientists. Individual scientific statements and papers—the validity of some of which has yet to be assessed adequately—can be exploited in the policy debate and can leave the impression that the scientific community is sharply divided on issues where there is, in reality, a strong scientific consensus.... IPCC assessment reports are prepared at approximately five-year intervals by a large international group of experts who represent the broad range of expertise and perspectives relevant to the issues. The reports strive to reflect a consensus evaluation of the results of the full body of peer-reviewed research.... They provide an analysis of what is known and not known, the degree of consensus, and some indication of the degree of confidence that can be placed on the various statements and conclusions."[130]
Network of African Science Academies: “A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change.”[35]
International Union for Quaternary Research, 2008: "INQUA recognizes the international scientific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."[78]
Australian Coral Reef Society,[131] 2006: "There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth’s climate is changing as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases.... There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming...."[132]
See also
Global warming portal
Energy portal
4 Degrees and Beyond International Climate Conference
Climate change denial
Economics of global warming
Effects of global warming
Global warming controversy
History of climate change science
International Year of Planet Earth
List of authors of Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
List of climate scientists
List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming
National Registry of Environmental Professionals#Climate change survey survey on climate change
Public opinion on climate change
References
↑ 1.0 1.1 Oreskes, Naomi (2007). "The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We're Not Wrong?". In DiMento, Joseph F. C.; Doughman, Pamela M. (eds.). Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. MIT Press. pp. 65–66. ISBN 978-0-262-54193-0. CS1 maint: ref=harv (link)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level." IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 1.1: Observations of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
↑ IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers", Detection and Attribution of Climate Change, «It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century» (page 15) and «In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: (...) extremely likely: 95–100%» (page 2). <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013.
↑ IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 2.4: Attribution of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007."It is likely that increases in GHG concentrations alone would have caused more warming than observed because volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols have offset some warming that would otherwise have taken place."
↑ [Notes-SciPanel] America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14588-0. (p1) ... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * * * (p21-22) Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "Summary for Policymakers", 1. Observed changes in climate and their effects <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007
↑ "Summary for Policymakers", 2. Causes of change <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007
↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 Parry, M.L.; et al., "Technical summary", Industry, settlement and society, in: Box TS.5. The main projected impacts for systems and sectors <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007
↑ IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers", Magnitudes of impact <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007
↑ "Synthesis report", Ecosystems, in: Sec 3.3.1 Impacts on systems and sectors <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007
↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 "Question 1", 1.1 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>, in IPCC TAR SYR 2001, p. 38
↑ 12.0 12.1 Summary, in US NRC 2001, p. 4
↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 Julie Brigham-Grette; et al. (September 2006). "Petroleum Geologists' Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate" (PDF). Eos. 87 (36): 364. Bibcode:2006EOSTr..87..364B. doi:10.1029/2006EO360008. Retrieved 2007-01-23. The AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of human-induced effects on global warming. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ 14.0 14.1 AAPG Climate Change June 2007
↑ 15.0 15.1 Oreskes 2007, p. 68
↑ Ogden, Aynslie and Cohen, Stewart (2002). "Integration and Synthesis: Assessing Climate Change Impacts in Northern Canada" (PDF). Retrieved 2009-04-12. Cite journal requires |journal= (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ 17.0 17.1 "Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). IPCC. Retrieved 1 August 2015. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Nuccitelli, Dana (31 March 2014). "IPCC report warns of future climate change risks, but is spun by contrarians". The Guardian. Retrieved 1 August 2015. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ 19.0 19.1 "U.N. Climate Panel Endorses Ceiling on Global Emissions". The New York Times. 27 September 2013. Retrieved 1 August 2015. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "Warming 'very likely' human-made". BBC News. BBC. 2007-02-01. Retrieved 2007-02-01. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Rosenthal, Elisabeth; Revkin, Andrew C. (2007-02-03). "Science Panel Calls Global Warming 'Unequivocal'". New York Times. Retrieved 2010-08-28. the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, 'very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Stevens, William K. (2007-02-06). "On the Climate Change Beat, Doubt Gives Way to Certainty". New York Times. Retrieved 2010-08-28. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel’s parlance, this level of certainty is labeled “very likely.” Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "U.N. Report: Global Warming Man-Made, Basically Unstoppable". Fox News. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Downloads.globalchange.gov
↑ "Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment New Scientific Consensus: Arctic Is Warming Rapidly". UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 2004-11-08. Retrieved 2010-01-20. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "ACIA Display". Amap.no. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ 27.0 27.1 27.2 The literature has been assessed by the IPCC, e.g., see:
Adger, W.N.; et al., Ch 17: Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007
Barker, T.; et al., Technical summary <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007
↑ 28.0 28.1 2009 Joint Science Academies’ Statement
↑ Doha Declaration on Climate, Health and Wellbeing <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>. This statement has been signed by numerous medical organizations, including the World Medical Association.
↑ Arnold, D.G., ed. (March 2011), The Ethics of Global Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 9781107000698 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "Editorial: The Science of Climate Change". Science. 292 (5520): 1261. May 18, 2001. doi:10.1126/science.292.5520.1261. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ 32.0 32.1 The Science of Climate Change, The Royal Society
↑ Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change, 2005
↑ 2007 Joint Science Academies' Statement
↑ 35.0 35.1 "Joint statement by the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC) to the G8 on sustainability, energy efficiency and climate change" (PDF). Network of African Science Academies. 2007. Retrieved 2012-08-28. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ 2008 Joint Science Academies’ Statement
↑ "Stanowisko Zgromadzenia Ogólnego PAN z dnia 13 grudnia 2007 r" (PDF) (in Polish). Polish Academy of Sciences. Retrieved 2009-06-16. CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> Note: As of 16 June 2009, PAS has not issued this statement in English, all citations have been translated from Polish.
↑ 38.0 38.1 AAAS Board Statement on Climate Change www.aaas.org December 2006
↑ FASTS Statement on Climate Change (PDF), 2008 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Global climate change is real and measurable. Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years. Key vulnerabilities arising from climate change include water resources, food supply, health, coastal settlements, biodiversity and some key ecosystems such as coral reefs and alpine regions. As the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases increases, impacts become more severe and widespread. To reduce the global net economic, environmental and social losses in the face of these impacts, the policy objective must remain squarely focused on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels through the reduction of emissions. The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity."
↑ 40.0 40.1 Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council (2001). Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. Washington DC: National Academy Press. ISBN 0-309-07574-2. CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Wratt, David; Renwick, James (2008-07-10). "Climate change statement from the Royal Society of New Zealand". The Royal Society of New Zealand. Retrieved 2010-01-20. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Gray, Louise (May 29, 2010). "Royal Society to publish guide on climate change to counter claims of 'exaggeration'". The Daily Telegraph. London. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ 43.0 43.1 "New guide to science of climate change". The Royal Society. Retrieved 9 June 2010. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Harrabin, Roger (27 May 2010). "Society to review climate message". BBC News. Retrieved 9 June 2010. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Gardner, Dan (8 June 2010). "Some excitable climate-change deniers just don't understand what science is". Montreal Gazette. Archived from the original on 11 June 2010. Retrieved 9 June 2010. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "Joint statement by the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC) to the G8 on sustainability, energy efficiency and climate change". 2007. Retrieved 22 May 2015. A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change... Although we recognize that this nexus poses daunting challenges for the developed world, we firmly believe that these challenges are even more daunting for the most impoverished, science-poor regions of the developing world, especially in Africa. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ European Academy of Sciences and Arts Let's Be Honest
↑ European Science Foundation Position Paper Impacts of Climate Change on the European Marine and Coastal Environment — Ecosystems Approach, 2007, pp. 7–10 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human activities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change. These greenhouse gases affect the global climate by retaining heat in the troposphere, thus raising the average temperature of the planet and altering global atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. While on-going national and international actions to curtail and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are essential, the levels of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, and their impact, are likely to persist for several decades. On-going and increased efforts to mitigate climate change through reduction in greenhouse gases are therefore crucial."
↑ Panel Urges Global Shift on Sources of Energy
↑ "InterAcademy Council". InterAcademy Council. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "InterAcademy Council". InterAcademy Council. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "InterAcademy Council". InterAcademy Council. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ http://www.caets.org/nae/naecaets.nsf/(weblinks)/WSAN-78QL9A?OpenDocument
↑ American Chemical Society Global Climte Change <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol particles (IPCC, 2007). There is very little room for doubt that observed climate trends are due to human activities. The threats are serious and action is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of climate change. The reality of global warming, its current serious and potentially disastrous impacts on Earth system properties, and the key role emissions from human activities play in driving these phenomena have been recognized by earlier versions of this ACS policy statement (ACS, 2004), by other major scientific societies, including the American Geophysical Union (AGU, 2003), the American Meteorological Society (AMS, 2007) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS, 2007), and by the U. S. National Academies and ten other leading national academies of science (NA, 2005)."
↑ American Institute of Physics Statement supporting AGU statement on human-induced climate change, 2003 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "The Governing Board of the American Institute of Physics has endorsed a position statement on climate change adopted by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Council in December 2003."
↑ American Physical Society Climate Change Policy Statement, November 2007 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes. The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now. Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity on the Earth’s climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms. The APS also urges governments, universities, national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.
↑ AIP science policy document. (PDF), 2005 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Policy: The AIP supports a reduction of the green house gas emissions that are leading to increased global temperatures, and encourages research that works towards this goal. Reason: Research in Australia and overseas shows that an increase in global temperature will adversely affect the Earth’s climate patterns. The melting of the polar ice caps, combined with thermal expansion, will lead to rises in sea levels that may impact adversely on our coastal cities. The impact of these changes on biodiversity will fundamentally change the ecology of Earth."
↑ EPS Position Paper Energy for the future: The Nuclear Option (PDF), 2007 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "The emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, among which carbon dioxide is the main contributor, has amplified the natural greenhouse effect and led to global warming. The main contribution stems from burning fossil fuels. A further increase will have decisive effects on life on earth. An energy cycle with the lowest possible CO2 emission is called for wherever possible to combat climate change."
↑ "AGU Position Statement: Human Impacts on Climate". Agu.org. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "Human-induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action". Position Statement. American Geophysical Union. Retrieved 14 August 2013. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ ASA, CSSA, and SSSA Position Statement on Climate Change
↑ "EFG Website | Home". Eurogeologists.de. 2011-08-10. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ EFG Carbon Capture and geological Storage
↑ http://www.egu.eu/statements/position-statement-of-the-divisions-of-atmospheric-and-climate-sciences-7-july-2005.html
↑ http://www.egu.eu/statements/egu-position-statement-on-ocean-acidification.html
↑ "The Geological Society of America - Position Statement on Global Climate Change". Geosociety.org. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "Geological Society - Climate change: evidence from the geological record". Geolsoc.org.uk. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ IUGG Resolution 6
↑ http://www.nagt.org/index.html
↑ http://nagt.org/nagt/organization/ps-climate.html
↑ "AMS Information Statement on Climate Change". Ametsoc.org. 2012-08-20. Retrieved 2012-08-27. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "Statement". AMOS. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ CFCAS Letter to PM, November 25, 2005
↑ Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Letter to Stephen Harper (Updated, 2007)
↑ http://www.rmets.org/news/detail.php?ID=332
↑ WMO’s Statement at the Twelfth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.
↑ AMQUA "Petroleum Geologists’ Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate"
↑ 78.0 78.1 INQUA Statement On Climate Change.
↑ AAWV Position Statement on Climate Change, Wildlife Diseases, and Wildlife Health <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "There is widespread scientific agreement that the world’s climate is changing and that the weight of evidence demonstrates that anthropogenic factors have and will continue to contribute significantly to global warming and climate change. It is anticipated that continuing changes to the climate will have serious negative impacts on public, animal and ecosystem health due to extreme weather events, changing disease transmission dynamics, emerging and re-emerging diseases, and alterations to habitat and ecological systems that are essential to wildlife conservation. Furthermore, there is increasing recognition of the inter-relationships of human, domestic animal, wildlife, and ecosystem health as illustrated by the fact the majority of recent emerging diseases have a wildlife origin."
↑ AIBS Position Statements <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver."
↑ Scientific societies warn Senate: climate change is real, Ars Technica, October 22, 2009 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Letter to US Senators (PDF), October 2009 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Global Environmental Change — Microbial Contributions, Microbial Solutions (PDF), American Society For Microbiology, May 2006 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> They recommended "reducing net anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere” and “minimizing anthropogenic disturbances of” atmospheric gases. Carbon dioxide concentrations were relatively stable for the past 10,000 years but then began to increase rapidly about 150 years ago…as a result of fossil fuel consumption and land use change. Of course, changes in atmospheric composition are but one component of global change, which also includes disturbances in the physical and chemical conditions of the oceans and land surface. Although global change has been a natural process throughout Earth’s history, humans are responsible for substantially accelerating present-day changes. These changes may adversely affect human health and the biosphere on which we depend. Outbreaks of a number of diseases, including Lyme disease, hantavirus infections, dengue fever, bubonic plague, and cholera, have been linked to climate change."
↑ Australian Coral Reef Society official letter (PDF), 2006, archived from the original (PDF) on 22 March 2006 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> Official communique regarding the Great Barrier Reef and the "world-wide decline in coral reefs through processes such as overfishing, runoff of nutrients from the land, coral bleaching, global climate change, ocean acidification, pollution", etc.: There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth’s climate is changing as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases. The IPCC (involving over 3,000 of the world’s experts) has come out with clear conclusions as to the reality of this phenomenon. One does not have to look further than the collective academy of scientists worldwide to see the string (of) statements on this worrying change to the earth’s atmosphere. There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming....It is highly likely that coral bleaching has been exacerbated by global warming."
↑ Institute of Biology policy page ‘Climate Change’ <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "there is scientific agreement that the rapid global warming that has occurred in recent years is mostly anthropogenic, ie due to human activity.” As a consequence of global warming, they warn that a “rise in sea levels due to melting of ice caps is expected to occur. Rises in temperature will have complex and frequently localised effects on weather, but an overall increase in extreme weather conditions and changes in precipitation patterns are probable, resulting in flooding and drought. The spread of tropical diseases is also expected.” Subsequently, the Institute of Biology advocates policies to reduce “greenhouse gas emissions, as we feel that the consequences of climate change are likely to be severe."
↑ SAF Forest Management and Climate Change (PDF), 2008 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Forests are shaped by climate....Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes therefore have the potential to dramatically affect forests nationwide. There is growing evidence that our climate is changing. The changes in temperature have been associated with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHGs in the atmosphere."
↑ SAF Forest Offset Projects in a Carbon Trading System (PDF), 2008 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Forests play a significant role in offsetting CO2 emissions, the primary anthropogenic GHG."
↑ Wildlife Society Global Climate Change and Wildlife (PDF) <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Scientists throughout the world have concluded that climate research conducted in the past two decades definitively shows that rapid worldwide climate change occurred in the 20th century, and will likely continue to occur for decades to come. Although climates have varied dramatically since the Earth was formed, few scientists question the role of humans in exacerbating recent climate change through the emission of greenhouse gases. The critical issue is no longer “if” climate change is occurring, but rather how to address its effects on wildlife and wildlife habitats." The statement goes on to assert that “evidence is accumulating that wildlife and wildlife habitats have been and will continue to be significantly affected by ongoing large-scale rapid climate change.” The statement concludes with a call for “reduction in anthropogenic (human-caused) sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global climate change and the conservation of CO2- consuming photosynthesizers (i.e., plants).”
↑ AAP Global Climate Change and Children's Health, 2007 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. Anticipated direct health consequences of climate change include injury and death from extreme weather events and natural disasters, increases in climate-sensitive infectious diseases, increases in air pollution–related illness, and more heat-related, potentially fatal, illness. Within all of these categories, children have increased vulnerability compared with other groups."
↑ ACPM Policy Statement Abrupt Climate Change and Public Health Implications, 2006 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "The American College of Preventive Medicine (ACPM) accept the position that global warming and climate change is occurring, that there is potential for abrupt climate change, and that human practices that increase greenhouse gases exacerbate the problem, and that the public health consequences may be severe."
↑ American Medical Association Policy Statement, 2008 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Support the findings of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which states that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that these changes will negatively affect public health. Support educating the medical community on the potential adverse public health effects of global climate change, including topics such as population displacement, flooding, infectious and vector-borne diseases, and healthy water supplies."
↑ American Public Health Association Policy Statement ‘’Addressing the Urgent Threat of Global Climate Change to Public Health and the Environment’’, 2007 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "The long-term threat of global climate change to global health is extremely serious and the fourth IPCC report and other scientific literature demonstrate convincingly that anthropogenic GHG emissions are primarily responsible for this threat….US policy makers should immediately take necessary steps to reduce US emissions of GHGs, including carbon dioxide, to avert dangerous climate change."
↑ AMA Climate Change and Human Health — 2004, 2004 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> They recommend policies "to mitigate the possible consequential health effects of climate change through improved energy efficiency, clean energy production and other emission reduction steps."
↑ AMA Climate Change and Human Health — 2004. Revised 2008., 2008 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "The world’s climate – our life-support system – is being altered in ways that are likely to pose significant direct and indirect challenges to health. While ‘climate change’ can be due to natural forces or human activity, there is now substantial evidence to indicate that human activity – and specifically increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions – is a key factor in the pace and extent of global temperature increases. Health impacts of climate change include the direct impacts of extreme events such as storms, floods, heatwaves and fires and the indirect effects of longer-term changes, such as drought, changes to the food and water supply, resource conflicts and population shifts. Increases in average temperatures mean that alterations in the geographic range and seasonality of certain infections and diseases (including vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, Ross River virus and food-borne infections such as Salmonellosis) may be among the first detectable impacts of climate change on human health. Human health is ultimately dependent on the health of the planet and its ecosystem. The AMA believes that measures which mitigate climate change will also benefit public health. Reducing GHGs should therefore be seen as a public health priority."
↑ World Federation of Public Health Associations resolution "Global Climate Change" (PDF), 2001 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Noting the conclusions of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other climatologists that anthropogenic greenhouse gases, which contribute to global climate change, have substantially increased in atmospheric concentration beyond natural processes and have increased by 28 percent since the industrial revolution….Realizing that subsequent health effects from such perturbations in the climate system would likely include an increase in: heat-related mortality and morbidity; vector-borne infectious diseases,… water-borne diseases…(and) malnutrition from threatened agriculture….the World Federation of Public Health Associations…recommends precautionary primary preventive measures to avert climate change, including reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and preservation of greenhouse gas sinks through appropriate energy and land use policies, in view of the scale of potential health impacts...."
↑ WHO Protecting health from climate change (PDF), 2008, p. 2, retrieved 2009-04-18 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Statement supporting AGU statement on human-induced climate change, American Astronomical Society, 2004 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "In endorsing the "Human Impacts on Climate" statement [issued by the American Geophysical Union], the AAS recognizes the collective expertise of the AGU in scientific subfields central to assessing and understanding global change, and acknowledges the strength of agreement among our AGU colleagues that the global climate is changing and human activities are contributing to that change."
↑ ASA Statement on Climate Change, November 30, 2007 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "The ASA endorses the IPCC conclusions.... Over the course of four assessment reports, a small number of statisticians have served as authors or reviewers. Although this involvement is encouraging, it does not represent the full range of statistical expertise available. ASA recommends that more statisticians should become part of the IPCC process. Such participation would be mutually beneficial to the assessment of climate change and its impacts and also to the statistical community."
↑ Lapp, David. "What Is Climate Change". Canadian Council of Professional Engineers. Retrieved 18 August 2015. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Policy Statement, Climate Change and Energy, February 2007 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Engineers Australia believes that Australia must act swiftly and proactively in line with global expectations to address climate change as an economic, social and environmental risk... We believe that addressing the costs of atmospheric emissions will lead to increasing our competitive advantage by minimising risks and creating new economic opportunities. Engineers Australia believes the Australian Government should ratify the Kyoto Protocol."
↑ IAGLR Fact Sheet The Great Lakes at a Crossroads: Preparing for a Changing Climate (PDF), February 2009 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "While the Earth’s climate has changed many times during the planet’s history because of natural factors, including volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth’s orbit, never before have we observed the present rapid rise in temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2). Human activities resulting from the industrial revolution have changed the chemical composition of the atmosphere....Deforestation is now the second largest contributor to global warming, after the burning of fossil fuels. These human activities have significantly increased the concentration of “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere. As the Earth’s climate warms, we are seeing many changes: stronger, more destructive hurricanes; heavier rainfall; more disastrous flooding; more areas of the world experiencing severe drought; and more heat waves."
↑ IPENZ Informatory Note, Climate Change and the greenhouse effect (PDF), October 2001 <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> "Human activities have increased the concentration of these atmospheric greenhouse gases, and although the changes are relatively small, the equilibrium maintained by the atmosphere is delicate, and so the effect of these changes is significant. The world’s most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, a by-product of the burning of fossil fuels. Since the time of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 280 parts per million to 370 parts per million, an increase of around 30%. On the basis of available data, climate scientists are now projecting an average global temperature rise over this century of 2.0 to 4.5°C. This compared with 0.6°C over the previous century – about a 500% increase... This could lead to changing, and for all emissions scenarios more unpredictable, weather patterns around the world, less frost days, more extreme events (droughts and storm or flood disasters), and warmer sea temperatures and melting glaciers causing sea levels to rise. ... Professional engineers commonly deal with risk, and frequently have to make judgments based on incomplete data. The available evidence suggests very strongly that human activities have already begun to make significant changes to the earth’s climate, and that the long-term risk of delaying action is greater than the cost of avoiding/minimising the risk."
↑ AAPG Position Statement: Climate Change from dpa.aapg.org
↑ "Climate :03:2007 EXPLORER". Aapg.org. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Sunsetting the Global Climate Change Committee, The Professional Geologist, March/April 2010, p. 28
↑ "American Geological Institute Climate Statement". 12 Feb 1999. Archived from the original on July 2012. Retrieved July 2012. Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ AIPG Climate Change Letters sent to U.S. Government Officials
↑ "AIPG Climate Change and Domestic Energy Statement", The Professional Geologist, January/February 2010, p. 42
↑ "The Professional Geologist publications". Archived from the original on July 2012. Retrieved July 2012. Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "Climate Change and Society Governance", The Professional Geologist, March/April 2010, p. 33
↑ billobrien.coml. "Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences (CFES)". Geoscience.ca. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Graham Lloyd (June 4, 2014). "Earth scientists split on climate change statement". The Australian. Retrieved June 4, 2014. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>(subscription required)
↑ Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W.; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H. (2010). "Expert credibility in climate change". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107 (27): 12107–9. Bibcode:2010PNAS..10712107A. doi:10.1073/pnas.1003187107. PMC 2901439. PMID 20566872. |access-date= requires |url= (help)CS1 maint: ref=harv (link)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Doran consensus article 2009
↑ John Cook, Dana Nuccitelli, Sarah A Green, Mark Richardson, Bärbel Winkler, Rob Painting, Robert Way, Peter Jacobs. Andrew Skuce (15 May 2013). "Expert credibility in climate change". Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2): 024024. Bibcode:2013ERL.....8b4024C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024. CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) CS1 maint: ref=harv (link)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Naomi Oreskes (December 3, 2004). "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change" (PDF). Science. 306 (5702): 1686. doi:10.1126/science.1103618. PMID 15576594. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> (see also for an exchange of letters to Science)
↑ Lavelle, Marianne (2008-04-23). "Survey Tracks Scientists' Growing Climate Concern". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved 2010-01-20. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Lichter, S. Robert (2008-04-24). "Climate Scientists Agree on Warming, Disagree on Dangers, and Don't Trust the Media's Coverage of Climate Change". Statistical Assessment Service, George Mason University. Retrieved 2010-01-20. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ ""Structure of Scientific Opinion on Climate Change" at Journalist's Resource.org". <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Stephen J. Farnsworth, S. Robert Lichter (October 27, 2011). "The Structure of Scientific Opinion on Climate Change". International Journal of Public Opinion Research. Retrieved December 2, 2011. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Bray, Dennis; von Storch, Hans (2009). "A Survey of the Perspectives of Climate Scientists Concerning Climate Science and Climate Change" (PDF). <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Bray, D.; von Storch H. (2009). "Prediction' or 'Projection; The nomenclature of climate science". Science Communication. 30 (4): 534–543. doi:10.1177/1075547009333698. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Doran, Peter T.; Maggie Kendall Zimmerman (January 20, 2009). "Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change" (PDF). EOS. 90 (3): 22–23. Bibcode:2009EOSTr..90...22D. doi:10.1029/2009EO030002. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W.; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H. (2010). "Expert credibility in climate change". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107 (27): 12107–9. Bibcode:2010PNAS..10712107A. doi:10.1073/pnas.1003187107. PMC 2901439. PMID 20566872. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Cook, J.; Nuccitelli, D.; Green, S.A.; Richardson, M.; Winkler, B.; Painting, R.; Way, R.; Jacobs, P.; Skuc, A. (2013). "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature". Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2): 024024. Bibcode:2013ERL.....8b4024C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024. CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Plait, P. (11 December 2012). "Why Climate Change Denial Is Just Hot Air". Slate. Retrieved 14 February 2014. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Plait, P. (14 January 2014). "The Very, Very Thin Wedge of Denial". Slate. Retrieved 14 February 2014. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ US NRC (2008). Understanding and Responding to Climate Change. A brochure prepared by the US National Research Council (US NRC) (PDF). Washington DC, USA: US National Academy of Sciences. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Joint Science Academies' Statement
↑ "Climate Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related Sciences Adopted by the AMS Council 9 February 2003". Ametsoc.org. 2003-02-09. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ "Australian Coral Reef Society". Australian Coral Reef Society. Retrieved 2012-07-30. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
↑ Australian Coral Reef Society official letter, June 16, 2006
IPCC TAR SYR (2001), Watson, R. T.; and the Core Writing Team (ed.), Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0-521-80770-0 CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> (pb: 0-521-01507-3).
IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007), Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E. (ed.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7 CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4).
IPCC AR4 WG3 (2007), Metz, B.; Davidson, O.R.; Bosch, P.R.; Dave, R.; and Meyer, L.A. (ed.), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4 CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles> (pb: 978-0-521-70598-1).
IPCC AR4 SYR (2007), Core Writing Team; Pachauri, R.K; and Reisinger, A. (ed.), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (SYR), Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, ISBN 92-9169-122-4 CS1 maint: multiple names: editors list (link)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>.
US NRC (2001), Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. A report by the Committee on the Science of Climate Change, US National Research Council (NRC), Washington, D.C., USA: National Academy Press, ISBN 0-309-07574-2, archived from the original on 5 June 2011 Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (help)<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
External links
The Radical Emission Reduction Conference
Robin Lloyd (23 February 2011). "Why Are Americans So Ill-Informed about Climate Change?". Scientific American. Retrieved 31 March 2011. <templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
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Three months of cycling across Canada was pretty epic and exhausting. I underestimated the sheer size and remoteness of the country, but it definitely made me a stronger and more determined person. It's hard to explain the whole experience in a few paragraphs, so I've split it into three sections: photos of my highlights, cycling … Continue reading Canada Debrief: Vancouver to Montreal
Canada Day 48-50: Riding Thunder Bay to Nipigon, Schreiber and Marathon
25/08/2017 jennydoan90 Leave a comment
Day 48 Riding Thunder Bay to Nipigon The first ride out of Thunder Bay was alright, the headwind wasn't helpful, but large sections of the road were quite nice and it looked like they were making progress with highway improvements. At the midpoint I found a shop which had some vending machines and while I … Continue reading Canada Day 48-50: Riding Thunder Bay to Nipigon, Schreiber and Marathon
Canada Day 44-47: Riding Dryden to Ignace, Upsala, Thunder Bay and Rest Day
25/08/2017 jennydoan90 Leave a comment
Day 44 Riding Dryden to Ignace I started my ride nice and early today, it was mostly good, aside from the minor headwind which dragged things out a bit. By now the road shoulder was mostly tiny, about 30cm wide and most of the time it was sufficient, but if there were trucks going in … Continue reading Canada Day 44-47: Riding Dryden to Ignace, Upsala, Thunder Bay and Rest Day
Canada Day 41-43: Riding Winnipeg to Hadashville, Kenora and Dryden
06/08/2017 jennydoan90 3 Comments
Day 41: Riding Winnipeg to Hadashville I stayed up quite late on the previous tonight, so I ended up waking up and leaving Winnipeg a bit more slowly than expected. The ride itself was quite straight forward, there was hardly any elevation and the only noteworthy point along the way was the sign for the … Continue reading Canada Day 41-43: Riding Winnipeg to Hadashville, Kenora and Dryden
Canada Day 37-40: Riding Kola to Brandon, High Bluff and Winnipeg plus Rest Day
03/08/2017 06/08/2017 jennydoan90 Leave a comment
Day 37 Riding Kola to Brandon Today's ride wasn't too interesting, but I was staying at a really nice airbnb place, where I could put me feet up and relax for a bit. After I arrived, I went on a bit of an adventure to find groceries, it ended up being a 15 block walk … Continue reading Canada Day 37-40: Riding Kola to Brandon, High Bluff and Winnipeg plus Rest Day
Canada Day 34-36: Riding Ogema to Weyburn, Arcola and Kola
03/08/2017 jennydoan90 Leave a comment
Day 34 Riding Ogema to Weyburn Luckily today's ride was nice and short, I planned to ride 80km, but my Couchsurfer hosts coincidentally drove past me at the 53km mark. Darcy and Devora were driving their camper van back from a festival and picked me up for the last bit, which was handy, since the … Continue reading Canada Day 34-36: Riding Ogema to Weyburn, Arcola and Kola
Canada Day 31-33: Riding Maple Creek to Shaunavon, Lafleche and Ogema
28/07/2017 jennydoan90 Leave a comment
Canada Day 31 Riding Maple Creek to Shaunavon Today's ride was very unpleasant, the Google Maps route estimated 106km, most of which was along a gravel road, so I had to backtrack 13km and take an alternative route, adding up to 150km. The noise on Highway 1 and the unrelenting headwind wore me down and … Continue reading Canada Day 31-33: Riding Maple Creek to Shaunavon, Lafleche and Ogema
Canada Day 28-30: Riding Calgary to Bassano, Redcliff and Maple Creek
28/07/2017 jennydoan90 4 Comments
Canada Day 28: Riding Calgary to Bassano I planned to cycle from Calgary to Winnipeg in 12 days, covering nearly 1400km without any rest stops. It seemed ambitious, but with the flat terrain throughout the prairies and a typical westerly wind, it was definitely within my grasp. Although Highway 1 is the shortest route, I'm … Continue reading Canada Day 28-30: Riding Calgary to Bassano, Redcliff and Maple Creek
Canada Day 24-27: Riding Canmore to Calgary and Rest Days
23/07/2017 jennydoan90 Leave a comment
Day 24: Riding Canmore to Calgary Today's ride had a tailwind for most of the journey and halfway through, I left the mountains and enjoyed the flat highway. Unfortunately there were a lot of loose rocks and shrapnel on the side of the road and I got stung by my first flat tyre. After 4,000km of … Continue reading Canada Day 24-27: Riding Canmore to Calgary and Rest Days
Canada Day 19-23: Riding Golden to Lake Louise, Castle Mountain, Banff and Canmore
18/07/2017 jennydoan90 1 Comment
Canada Day 19: Riding Golden to Lake Louise and Castle Mountain Today was the last day of climbing in the Rockies, I started nice and early and slowly worked through the first few hills. It was hard work, but the overcast and shade from the mountains kept me cool as I progressed up the giant … Continue reading Canada Day 19-23: Riding Golden to Lake Louise, Castle Mountain, Banff and Canmore
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Are you Searching Top 10 Popular National Parks Of Gujarat? There are 10 Popular National Parkd of gujarat. The biggest national park of Gujarat is Gir National Park. National Park declared by the Central Government such animal or any article, trophy, uncured trophy or meat derived from such animal or any vehicle, vessel, weapon, trap, or tool used in such hunting, shall be the property of Central Government. Let’s Start Article :-
List of National Parks of Gujarat
S. No. Name of National Park Area Km2 Location
1. Gir National Park 1,412 km² Junagadh, Gujarat
2. Velavadar National Park 34.08 km² Bhavnagar, Gujarat
3. Marine National Park 162.9 km² Gulf of Kutch, Gujarat
4. Jambughoda Wildlife Sanctuary 1,404 km² Jambughoda, Gujarat
5. Barda Wildlife Sanctuary 192.3 km² Porbandar, Gujarat
6. Vansda National Park 23.99 km² Vansda, Dangs, Gujarat
7. Purna Wildlife Sanctuary 160.8 km² Jamlapada, Gujarat
8. Gaga Wildlife Sanctuary 332.87 hectares Kalyanpur, Gujarat
9. Mitiyala Wildlife Sanctuary 18.22 km² Mitiyala, Gujarat
10. Shoolpaneshwar Wildlife Sanctuary 607.7 km² Vadodara, Gujarat
Here is the list of national parks in Gujarat
1. Gir National Park
Gir National Park is one of the major attractions of Gujarat. Spread across nearly 1412 sq km of land, Gir National Park in Gujarat is the only place in India having the largest population of Asiatic lions. Gir Jungle Trail, outside the fenced area, traverses deciduous forest and is home to wildlife including vultures and pythons.
2. Velavadar National Park
Blackbuck National Park is a national park in India located at Velavadar in the Bhavnagar District of Gujarat state, india. The wildlife sanctuary is home to more than 3,000 blackbucks and over 120 species of birds, including flamingos, Pelicans, white and painted storks, etc.
3. Marine National Park
Marine National Park in the Gulf of Kutch is situated on the southern shore of the Gulf of Kutch in the Devbhumi Dwarka district of Gujarat state, India. Surrounded by coral reefs, this national park comprises 42 islands, amongst the Narara and Pirotan are the most famous ones to enjoy marine life. In 1980, the area was known as a marine sanctuary, and later it was declared a national park in 1982.
4. Jambughoda Wildlife Sanctuary
Jambughoda is a Wildlife Sanctuary situated in Jambughoda Tehsil, in the South-Central part of Gujarat, and the Kathiawar-Gir dry deciduous forests’ ecoregion in India. Covering an area of about 130 sq km, this wildlife sanctuary is now a full-fledged reserve of abundant flora and fauna, offers a perfect setting for a fun-filled weekend.
5. Barda Wildlife Sanctuary
Bhadra Wildlife Sanctuary is the protected area and the tiger reserve as part of the Project Tiger, situated in Chikkamagaluru district, 23 km south of Bhadravathi city, 38 km 20 km from Tarikere town, northwest of Chikkamagaluru and 283 km from Bengaluru city in Karnataka state, India.
6. Vansda National Park
One of the most beautiful national parks of Gujarat, Vansda National Park is located in the Navsari district of Gujarat, a 25-minute drive from Vansda town. This national park was once the private property of the King of Vansda, thus it was named Vansda National Park, situated in the Vansda tehsil, Navsari District of Gujarat state, India.
7. Purna Wildlife Sanctuary
Purna Wildlife Sanctuary is a wildlife sanctuary in the Western Ghats mountain range, in the States of Gujarat and Maharashtra, India. With a landscape having lush green and thick forests, small tribal villages, scattered fields, and rivers, the Purna Wildlife Sanctuary is famous for witnessing the maximum rainfall in the region.
8. Gaga Wildlife Sanctuary
Maha Ganga Wildlife Sanctuary is a protected area located in Kalyanpur taluka, Devbhumi Dwarka district, Gujarat, India. The Sanctuary is home to around 12 species of mammals, 88 species of birds, and 8 species of reptiles. It harbours a huge number of wild animals including wolves, jackal, blue bull, the jungle cat, and the mongoose.
9. Mitiyala Wildlife Sanctuary
Mitiyala Wildlife Sanctuary also known as Mitiyala Grasslands is situated near Mitiyala in Gujarat. The jungle was a part of erstwhile Bhavnagar princely state before independence of India in 1947. The Mitiyala Wildlife Sanctuary is home to more than 12 lions, leopards, spotted deers, Pangolin, Sambar, Chinkara, and Nilgais (blue bulls). It is a great place for catching natural vistas and enchanting views.
10. Shoolpaneshwar Wildlife Sanctuary
Shoolpaneshwar Wildlife Sanctuary is a protected area in India’s Gujarat state, located in the western Satpura Range south of the Narmada River and is 607.7 km² large. This sanctuary is inhabited by diverse kinds of animals that include sloth bears, pangolins, barking deer, leopards, and various species of birds and reptiles. The Shoolpaneshwar Wildlife Sanctuary provides you with the perfect setting to connect with nature and wildlife.
We hop you like this Top 10 National Parks Of Gujarat Article ? For more Latest Job Notifications, Admit Card, Results, Answer key and Gk Quiz always check our site regularly. You like this Article so please don’t forget to share on social media. Thanks For visiting jobs.webblogging.in.com
National Parks Of Gujarat FAQs ?
Q.1 Which is the largest national park in gujarat?
Ans. Gir National Park
Q.2 How many national parks are there in gujarat?
Ans. Four National Parks
Q.3 Which is the india’s largest national park?
Ans. Hemis National Park Ladakh
Q.4 Which is the largest park in Asia?
Ans. Janeshwar Mishra Park
Q.5 Which is the largest park in world?
Ans. Greenland National Park
The post Top 10 National Parks Of Gujarat and Wildlife Sanctuaries appeared first on jobs.webblogging.in.
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Dick Johnson is Dead Shocked. Shocked that a selfish denialist who refused to wear a mask has contracted COVID-19.
DICK JOHNSON IS DEAD. Netflix, as both bellwether and arbiter of contemporary taste, has long led the drive to popularize and, at least to some extent, legitimize documentary movies in the mainstream. Not that the medium needed legitimizing among movie nerds, of course, but established norms have traditionally pushed all but the noisiest documentaries to the fringe. They were (are) rarely shown in theaters, at least on any meaningful scale, were generally deemed unworthy of investment by studios because they were unlikely to generate profits on the usurious scale such enterprises so covet and were generally treated as a sort of shy, awkward relative of scripted movies. Nevermind the fact that the documentary form is, in fact, the truest root of cinema, the beginning of the beginning. A person pointing a motion picture camera at something and documenting it is an act that transcends fatuous distinctions; it is cinema.
Admittedly, I've generally been drawn more strongly to elevated stylization and imaginative fancy of scripted movies. This may be due as much to the socialization and conditioning we have all been subject to as to aesthetic preference. It could also be because real life has often seemed like a real son of a bitch to contend with and works of fiction, even at their most brutal and interrogative, feel like a soothing refraction of reality, if not an outright escape. So like so many of us, I've been guilty of shortchanging the cultural value of the documentary, even while I've enjoyed some notable examples down the decades.
During those decades, Kirsten Johnson has been behind the camera on dozens of projects, both short form and feature length, but primarily documentaries. She released her feature-length directorial debut, Cameraperson (currently streaming on the Criterion Channel), in 2016. In it, she cut together footage from projects that had taken her all over the world to create a memoir via montage, a curated collection of moments that express not only her fascination with camera and image, but also her sense of wonder, justice and empathy. It's a quietly revelatory and revolutionary movie, as it debunks the notion that documentary should be about objectivity and observation. It speaks to the fundamental truth that, in observing something, in documenting it, we participate in that thing, and that selecting it is both an editorial and artistic act.
With Dick Johnson is Dead, she delves even further into the subject-object-observer relationship, with her own life squarely in the center of the frame. Having lost her mother to Alzheimer's disease some years ago and with very little footage with which to memorialize her, Johnson confronted her father's dementia diagnosis with the full force of her artform. He, Dick, a retired psychiatrist, came on as accomplice and the two embarked on a project that would celebrate his life and their relationship, while also contending with the inevitably of death and our utter unpreparedness for it. It's also a slapstick comedy.
Johnson, with help of a full crew and Netflix money, uses this time with her dad, during which he moves out of the woodsy family home outside Seattle and into her one-bedroom New York apartment, to meditate on his big-heartedness, his transparent love of life and his family, and the vitality and strength of their father-daughter bond. It's also a time of heartbreaking grief, as his deteriorating mental state is a reminder to both of them of the process of losing Mom. In and among the more conventional, almost too intimate stuff of a compelling documentary, though, Johnson seizes on an opportunity to push the boundaries of the form. Using stunt performers, she stages and films a number of pretty dramatic death scenarios for Dick, including one wherein his jugular is accidentally slashed on a New York street corner. She constructed a Bollywood influenced, near-psychedelic vision of heaven and, as coda, held a funeral for Dick while he was still alive and capable of participating in and remembering it.
Pretty heady stuff, really, but one of Johnson's formidable talents as a director is to leaven the fear and contemplation with her own kindness and curiosity. The result is something that shouldn't work: a document about end of life that is also a fantastical musical comedy. I think that is the great innovation here. Dick Johnson is Dead is a movie about death that, on paper, doesn't really make sense. But very few among us have made sense of our relationship to death, at least in any meaningful way, and so are left with our collages of memories, wherein joy and sorrow, the absurdity and horror and all of it are inextricably mixed. Kirsten (and Dick) Johnson render the collective struggle with the unknowable, the immense tragedy inherent in the experience of life, as a funny, thought-provoking, frequently heartbreaking celebration. PG13. 89M. NETFLIX.
John J. Bennett (he/him) is a movie nerd who loves a good car chase.
Tags
Screens Dick Johnson is Dead The Miniplex Mill Creek Cinema Broadway Cinema Fortuna Theatre Minor Theatre
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We are all socially connected. Some of us like to be so more than others. Technology allows us to do this in a variety of ways.
In this assignment, you will learn to use a new technology that helps you become socially connected. This technology can take the form of instant messaging or an online network that gives you the opportunity to connect with businesses and organizations to develop your career.
Research online social networking tools and applications using the Internet and online library resources. Based on your research, do the following:
1. Choose any tool for social networking to create a free account. The social networking tool should meet the following criteria:
o It is not a tool you have used before.
o It connects you with other people.
o It is open to the public.
o It does not promote offensive language or actions.
o It allows you to answer the questions for this assignment.
Examples include, but are not limited to:
Yahoo! Instant Messaging: This tool allows you to instantly type messages to other friends or colleagues who are on Yahoo!’s Instant Messaging. It also has a number of other features, including video messaging. http://www.yahoo.com
Skype: Skype’s free services allow you to call other people on Skype and video-conference with them over the Internet. You can also use Skype to call international cell phones or landlines at a highly reduced rate or to instant message. http://www.skype.com
Google Talk: This instant messenger is very similar to Yahoo!’s service. http://www.google.com/talk/
Facebook: This social networking tool allows you to network with friends, family, and acquaintances. You can send them updates and let them know what is going on in your world. It has an instant messaging service also. http://www.facebook.com
>>>>
Twitter: This tool allows you to follow a variety of people and track the little things they say. You can also send messages to others who might follow you on Twitter. http://twitter.com
LinkedIn: This tool is designed to help you connect with professionals in your industry. You can update your profile so others in your industry can know how you are progressing in skills and knowledge. http://www.linkedin.com
Instagram: This tool helps you modify (œfilter) and share photographs, usually taken with a mobile device. http://instagram.com/
Foursquare: According to its home page, this tool is supposed to help you and your friends find great places and make the most of your visits. https://foursquare.com/
2. Research your chosen social media tool. Then, using scholarly evidence, answer the following questions:
a. How does this social media tool help you connect with friends or colleagues? Describe this with as much detail as possible. Look this up on the Internet if you need to, as you may not realize all of the ways it may be beneficial.
b. What is a workplace application for this social media? Again, use search engines that will help you to answer this appropriately.
c. What is a potential drawback of this kind of media?
d. Describe the experience of engaging this exercise.
3. Paste a screenshot of the social media account you just created in your assignment paper. Follow these steps:
a. Log into the social media website where you created an account.
b. From the logged-in page, press the Alt key on your keyboard and then press the Print Screen key on your keyboard.
c. Display your assignment paper document. Click the mouse button in the area where you want to paste the screenshot. Hold down the Ctrl key and then press the V key. This will paste an image of your social media screen into your paper.
d. Change the size of your screen print to be approximately 3 by 4 inches.
? Click inside the graphic; this will put sizing squares around your graphic.
? Move the cursor to a corner of your graphic until your cursor changes to a diagonal arrow.
? Click and drag the cursor towards the center of the graphic so that the graphic gets smaller.
? When the screenshot is approximately 3 by 4 inches, let go of the mouse.
>>>>
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The announcement of synthetic diamonds in 1955 was met with the same kind of alarm and skepticism that greeted claims to have made…By Philip Ball
The announcement of synthetic diamonds in 1955 was met with the same kind of alarm and skepticism that greeted claims to have made alchemical gold in the Middle Ages. Could these “fake” gems, created by a team at the General Electric research laboratories in Schenectady, New York really match the genuine article? One anonymous critic from California captured a widespread suspicion in blunt terms when he wrote to GE, saying:
You can’t make real diamonds for they are nature grown. You can’t make gold; no one can. They dig gold out of the ground and also diamonds. But no one can make them with a machine. That is just a lot of bull.
Yet what if it were true that diamonds really can be manufactured? When GE revealed the discovery, the stock of the De Beers diamond cartel in South Africa, which dominated the global market, plummeted. It seemed like a rare and precious commodity was about to be supplanted by an artificial form that could be fabricated by the ton, mirroring a millennia-old concern about the devastating power of fakes. Concerns over the devaluation of gold currency led the Roman emperor Diocletian to ban alchemy in the third century, and worries about counterfeiting and debased coinage also lay behind the condemnations of the art by Pope John XXII in 1317 and of King Henry IV of England in 1403.
This, though, was no alchemy: The GE diamonds were perfect chemical replicas of the real thing. Was it the end of a billion-dollar market?
all that glitters: A rose-cut synthetic diamond created using a chemical vapor deposition process.Wikipedia
The answer was no. “Fake” diamonds are cheaper, and for industrial uses they have utterly eclipsed their natural counterparts. But at the luxury end of the market—gemstones for jewelry—artificial diamonds account for only 2 percent of global sales. How come?
When it comes to luxury and exotic materials, the competition between fake and real is partly a technical, chemical affair: how to create a good imitation, and how to spot it. But, as artificial gold and diamonds show, there is a deeper level to it, which is about something very human and socially constructed: the concept and value of authenticity.
Also in Chemistry
Should Science Save Modern Art?
By Luba Ostashevsky
An artist has a special relationship with time. As the age-old adage goes, ars longa, vita brevis: Art is long, life is short. Art can achieve a level of permanence beyond the aspirations of any mere mortal, which is, in...READ MORE
There are few better examples of the social implications of chemical “fakery” than the synthetic dyes of the 19th century. Medieval and Renaissance cultures were virtually color-coded hierarchies. Crimson and scarlet garments were for cardinals, bishops, popes, and monarchs, echoing the ruby-purple of the emperor’s robes in classical Rome. Clothing displaying other rich colors was a mark of wealth; black in particular came to signify the conspicuous consumption of the affluent merchants, who could afford cloth dyed in several expensive dyes until it took on this somber shade. Cheap substitutes would fool no one—they faded fast in sunlight or washed quickly from the threads.
Purple, with its associations of antique nobility, was especially resonant. But how challenging it was to make! When the wife of Napoleon III, the glamorous Empress Eugénie, visited England in 1858 dressed in a crinoline made from swathes of glorious mauve-hued cloth, the English went crazy to imitate this display of continental haute couture. Even Queen Victoria rather dowdily followed suit. The timing could not have been better for the young chemist William Perkin, who discovered in 1856 how to make a strong and permanent purple dye from an extract of the abundant coal tar, the residue from the extraction of gas from coal. Tempted at first to call it Tyrian purple to capitalize on the exclusive associations of antiquity, Perkin soon realized that nowadays French fashion counted for more, and it became “mauve,” after the French word for mallow, a plant with purple flowers.
purple for the people: This silk dress is dyed with Sir William Henry Perkin’s original mauve aniline dye. The purple, even though it has faded, has a richness unachievable by natural dyes.SSPL/Getty Images
This too seemed a kind of alchemy, as Charles Dickens’ journal All The Year Round acknowledged in 1859:
Alchemists of old spent their days and nights searching for gold, and never found the magic Proteus, though they chased him through all gases and all metals. If they had, indeed, we doubt much if the discovery had been as useful as this of Perkins’s [sic] purple.
But the disdain expressed toward the garish colors that Perkin’s purple, and related dyes such as magenta, made accessible to the general public from the 1860s had within it a clear distaste for the arriviste. Now that simply anyone can wear what once marked you out as a person of consequence meant that new ways were needed to arbitrate social distinction. “Never trust a woman who wears mauve, whatever her age may be,” wrote Oscar Wilde in The Picture of Dorian Gray. “It always means they have a history.”
With chemistry in full bloom in the later 19th century, all the material signifiers of class and culture were under threat. Expensive ivory, allegedly in short supply in the mid-century (although the rumor was false), could be faked with nitrocellulose, a plastic discovered in 1845 by the Swiss-German chemist Christian Schönbein. The British inventor and metallurgist Alexander Parkes turned this sticky mass into a hard substance that he patented as Parkesine in 1862, selling it as an ivory substitute for combs, buttons, and cutlery handles. Parkes’ product was poor—it cracked and caught fire—and his business folded in just a few years. But at much the same time, the American brothers John and Isaiah Hyatt found that nitrocellulose could be made malleable and workable by adding castor oil or camphor, which they marketed with more success as celluloid.
exploding billiards: This billiard ball, a gift of the Celanese Corporation, is made of cellulose nitrate, or celluloid. Billiard balls made of celluloid would occasionally detonate on contact. National Museum of American History, Smithsonian Institution
It wasn’t the perfect substitute by any means, not least because it is so flammable: nitrocellulose was also used as a fluffy explosive called “gun cotton.” There are tales of celluloid billiard balls, masquerading as ivory, producing a sharp detonation on contact: not enough to do anyone harm, although John Hyatt attested that the loud cracks might lead to guns being drawn in crowded billiard bar-rooms. The use of unstable nitrocellulose as an enamel substitute in dentures was an even riskier venture.
Celluloid was semi-natural, a plastic made from plant cellulose. The era of truly synthetic plastic began with the invention of Bakelite by Leo Baekeland around 1907. This dark resin was a polymer made from phenol (another coal-tar extract) and formaldehyde. It could be easily molded, but once hardened it retained its shape even when heated. This property, and its electrically insulating character, made it well suited for making components in the growing electronics industry. But the dark sheen resembled amber and mahogany, and so it was soon to be found imitating these expensive materials in jewelry, handles, and household devices such as radio sets. Still today buyers on eBay fret over how to distinguish real amber from Bakelite imitations.
Fakes can now be nearly as complex as the objects they copy.
The initial promise of plastics, then, was to provide ‘luxury for all’: materials resembling those only the wealthy had previously been able to afford. They were egalitarian materials: as cultural critic and philosopher Roland Barthes put it, “their use is historically bourgeois in origin … they aimed at reproducing cheaply the rarest substances, diamonds, silk, feathers, furs, silver, all the luxurious brilliance of the world.”
But if individuals of low status can pass themselves off as high-status—richly garbed, wearing faked gold and jewels—what then can survive of the social order? We might have moved beyond the hierarchy of princes, lords, and bishops, but not beyond the need for a pecking order and a narrative to back it up. It’s to that narrative that we returned in the age of the fake, both to create new emblems of status and to defend old ones.
Mixed up with the human code of privilege and power is an ancient belief in the moral authority of nature’s divine handywork. “Making” is always a compromised, ambiguous affair; beyond even the rhyming coincidence with faking, we have a word in English that can connote either activity: forging. It seemed entirely consistent with the superiority of God’s creations when the 17th-century pioneer of microscopy Robert Hooke found natural objects (such as insects) to be far more intricately and delicately formed at the tiniest scales than the crude artifacts of humans.
Modern science has shifted this balance. Fakes can now be nearly as complex as the objects they copy (or in the case of fake diamonds, essentially identical). One response to this intrusion is to move the boundary deeper into nature, looking for subtler marks of authenticity: Real and fake diamonds tend to have different spectroscopic signatures of light absorption, while X-ray crystallography, chromatography, and mass spectrometry are the high-tech methods used for detective work on pigments to authenticate artworks.
Another response to the increasing perfection of the fake, though, is to change the narratives behind authenticity and desirability—to assert them on different terms. Sometimes the mere passage of time is enough to elevate the fake itself to an object of desire. The “retro” value of genuine Bakelite products, for example, now makes them sought-after, and liable to be forged from more recent, cheaper plastics. The fake, invested with its own unique history, has become the real deal, and fetches a premium price to match. Items of “vintage bakelite” jewelry are listed on the online auction site eBay for thousands of dollars, despite the fact that they are essentially plastic trinkets.
The new authentic: A bakelite bracelet selling for $2400 on eBay.
Alternatively, the fake might itself stake a claim to moral authority, as in the case of fake fur, or of fake rhino horn, created using 3-D printing technology in an effort to ease poaching of the endangered animals.
The diamond industry, aware of the flexible nature of how we assign authenticity, is trying to re-invent the narrative surrounding its product. Concerned that synthetic diamonds are starting to enter the high-end jewelry market (sometimes surreptitiously), a cartel of natural diamond mining companies, including De Beers, called the Diamond Producers Association has launched a campaign to promote its products. The rhetoric—“Real is Rare”—speaks volumes about today’s distinctions between “real” and “fake”: If you really love someone, the campaign videos insist, you’ll settle for giving them nothing but a “real” gem. A fake gem becomes a sign of a faked affection. That the artificial gems are probably at this point still more rare than natural ones, and are as “real” a diamond as any other in chemical terms, is beside the point here. The “genuine article” is being protected by a narrative of natural authenticity that—ironically, given the pollution and questionable human-rights records of past diamond mining—draws from that associated with green movements.
Real is rare: An association of diamond mining companies is producing ads promoting the virtues of real diamonds, with the tagline “real is rare.”Real is Rare, Real is a Diamond.
Manufacturing such large diamonds is not easy in any case. As well as GE’s high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) method that squeezes carbon to diamond, it’s now possible to grow diamond by letting carbon atoms settle from a vapor onto a growing diamond surface, a technique called chemical vapor deposition (CVD). Initially HPHT synthesis could produce only very small diamonds—fine for making abrasive grit, not so much for necklaces. And CVD was best suited to making diamond coatings, which again was fine for cutting tools but not jewelry. Today it’s feasible to grow larger, gem-quality diamonds artificially, but at a price scarcely much lower than that of natural diamonds. And it’s not easy to make these artificially gems perfectly colorless—impurities can give them a yellow, brown, or gray tint. Both for these reasons and our apparent continued belief in the value of a “real” diamond, natural diamond retains almost complete control over the gem market.
The superiority of the “nature grown” substance is of course a strong selling point for health foods and “natural” cosmetic and pharmaceutical products. That isn’t to suggest such claims are totally fictitious: Some of the artificial food colorings that stemmed from William Perkin’s coal-tar dyes really were toxic. But the narrative often insinuates an almost moral authority of the “real” over the “fake.”
Witness the arguments over natural versus synthetic vitamins. “Many vitamin and mineral supplements are manufactured synthetically with chemicals and do not come straight from their natural sources,” one web site, www.GlobalHealingCenter.com, warns:
They are made to mimic the way natural vitamins act in our bodies. Natural vitamins are derived directly from plant material containing the vitamin, not produced in a test tube … Evolution has dictated that we eat the food we can gather from the earth, not the food we create in a lab.
Other sites determined to defend the superiority of natural provenance warn that, even if the molecules are identical, they are synthesized by a different pathway, using different reagents, than those in nature.
It’s true that some claim the natural vitamins—but not the synthetic variants—come with a tranche of enzymes, ions, minerals, and other ingredients that control the way the body recognizes, metabolizes, and uses them. Others say that a synthetic variant might contain impurities that the natural compounds do not. But if these things are truly important for the physiological effects, they can be addressed in principle. The rhetoric, however, sets out to persuade us that a synthetic substance can never be equivalent to a “natural” one, however much they might look identical. And it’s a story that works: Whole-food supplements, which surely qualify as luxury items too, have been one of the most quickly growing segments in the industry.
This distrust of the “fake” and reverence for the “real” and “authentic” seems to be deeply ingrained in human nature. We will find a rationalization of it, one way or another, and construct narratives to keep the distinction alive. For in the end that distinction seems to look not outward to the material world but inward to the self. Philosophers from Jean-Jacques Rousseau to Jean-Paul Sartre have interpreted the idea of authenticity in personal, individualistic terms as a freely chosen response to circumstances, something like Polonius’ dictum in Hamlet: “To thine own self be true.” Psychological studies suggest that sense of personal authenticity inflects how we function in the world: our sense of autonomy and self-esteem, what goals we pursue, how we relate to others. We reject the fake smile, the insincere action; we disdain artifice and pretense. It’s entirely to be expected, then, that the policing of fakery is socially constructed. What matters is not so much how the object is constituted, what chemistry created it, what imperfections it has. What matters is what it says about us.
Philip Ball is a writer based in London. His latest book is The Water Kingdom: A Secret History of China.
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NAUTILUS: SCIENCE CONNECTED
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0.967834 |
2021. COVID-19. Remote first. Asynchronous work. Flexibility > colocation. No, I'm not going to re-visit the status quo (hooray!) - this post is about something different.
We've embraced the new model of work, enjoyed its pros, but I haven't seen much work done to address the drawbacks/constraints it brought (especially the ones related to "richness" and "bandwidth" of communication). Obviously, there was a lot of trench-level evangelism, coaching, and preaching the importance of transparency. But when it comes to tools - I didn't see a tectonic shift.
Maybe the tools we've used before were so good there's no space to innovate here? I dare to disagree. Even when 100% remote, I see folks complaining about the pre-pandemic topics (like meetings stealing their time or never-ending waterfall of emails).
I don't have enough hubris, to tell you that I know the silver bullet. But I can share some ideas/speculations - what (IMHO) could work or is at least worth experimenting with. Who knows - maybe you know such a tool (already in existence) - a one I was completely unaware of.
Let's check.
YACT - envisioning
First of all - my goals and priorities: what I'd like to achieve:
I like separate, long-living contexts for topics (/conversations, /relationships) with people or groups - something like a channel on Slack, but maybe less linear and more "fork-friendly" (because collaboration is rarely strictly single-threaded)
Next, I need something much more expressive than a chat (even with a freakillion of highly inclusive emoticons ...). If you want to describe something non-trivial, it becomes a wall of text - that increases unnecessarily the cognitive threshold ("feck, it's long, I'll read it tomorrow").
Third, I need a complete collaboration space. E.g., I can now create a diagram in Miro and link it in the discussion on Slack (two separate apps), but since then, those two artifacts may have completely independent lives (detached, de-synced, discontinued) - I want them to be parts of the same, shared space.
Additionally, I want to synergize the benefits of asynchronous collaboration with the high bandwidth of video/audio communication - there are so few tools that have even tried that (e.g. Loom).
YACT - UX
How could such a tool look like?
Imagine creating workspaces like channels on Slack.
Each workspace serves some (single) purpose - it's dedicated for a group of people (team, group of similar interest, etc.) or a short-lived endeavor (project, incident, some event); If the purpose is not there anymore, the workspace gets archived.
Workspace could look like a whiteboard in Miro - you can sketch there, write, slap a diagram, share some file or link (with full attribution, timestamp, etc.). The relationships between those elements are not just a bunch of raster pixels - these are persistent connections (that remain when you shuffle items a bit).
What is more important - you can have asynchronous conversations there (in the very same workspace):
if you want to send a message (a new topic or a reply to the one that already exists), you can either write it down textually (like on Slack) or record it (vocally)
the recorded message is automatically transcribed - the author can edit or annotate (add emphasis, formatting, even a diagram at a given timestamp) it before sending; the idea is that both forms are entirely in sync (you can't cut something out of the text but leave it in the voice form)
the recipients may read or listen to the message (asynchronously, at the time of their convenience) - and - annotate (simple reactions, like thumbs up or down) it or "attach" the answer/comments (again with voice + transcription); attaching may spawn "threads" that fan out visually like in a mind map (for the sake of convenience they may be tagged/titled/etc. - to make sure we all stay on the same page (metaphorically)
Voice mail (on steroids)
What would be the benefits of such a model?
First of all, the communication on a 2D, flexible whitespace invites a creative approach to organizing and structuring the work ("this is our team's collaboration mental model") - e.g., when we discuss some proposal, we embed SWOT directly into the discussion.
Second of all, we reduce friction by replacing "walls of texts" with annotated, transcribed voice messages; as it's a "voice-first" approach - it seems like a good compromise between the speed of building the message and the convenience of tuning its form.
Obviously, the idea is still pretty rough and raw. For example:
The linear text chat (like in Slack) has its cons, but it's chronological, implying a clear association of message "freshness" with its importance. In other words - it's less prone to become messy because older messages disappear naturally (they got "scrolled away into history").
But what about a non-linear workspace? Won't it get chaotic?
True, there is such a risk. That's why there has to be a functionality that "collapses" (sucks in) whiteboard sections/regions. Once something is not relevant anymore (ticked off, completed, discarded), such a "pocket universe" could be transplanted into (browsable, completely linear) history log.
What about people who don't like to talk? Good question. Well, they can stick to writing their texts down manually (the Slack way) - their messages would not have a voice form (or Alexa would take care of that ...). I don't think it will be a bigger problem than the one faced now by people who don't like to write ...
All right. So how does it sound? Would you use such an app? Do you think it would increase the efficiency/productivity of your team? Would it make asynchronous collaboration faster? Or more convenient?
I'm not naive - such a tool would definitely require some getting used to AND there will definitely be some teams w/o people with enough organizational skills to take advantage of such a level of flexibility. But maybe you already know (have used) something similar, and you have some exciting experience to share?
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How long have you been knitting?Do you consider yourself a beginning sock knitter, an intermediate, or have you been doing this so long you could probably knit a pair in your sleep?
I have been knitting for approximately 18 years (wow, that makes me sound old!), but only seriously for about the past two to three years. I first became addicted to knitting socks about a year ago, and I'd consider myself pretty skilled. If they were just basic stockinette, I could probably knit a pair in my sleep.
The measurements:
While your pal may ask for some additional info to ensure a great fit, please provide your shoe size, or any other fitting related info you think is pertinent.
Here are my exact measurements: my foot is 9 3/4 inches long and 9 inches around at instep, my ankle is 8 1/2 inches around, and my leg (mid-calf) is about 12 1/4 inches around. I have relatively narrow feet (I wear a US size 9 or 9 1/2, depending on the shoe), but I have pretty thick calves, so I have issues with the cuffs of socks being tight.
(fiber related) Favorites:
What colors do you love? Do you prefer solids or variegated? What fibers do you most love to knit with? Who do you consider your favorite yarn vendors? What projects (other than socks, of course) do you most enjoy knitting?
I love shades of blues and greens, as well as pinks and roses. I usually prefer solids and occasionally use self-striping yarns. I like the look of variegateds in the hank, but I usually wind up with ugly pooling. I usually knit socks with superwash wool or wool blends, but my favorite pair of hand-knit socks to wear are a cotton/lycra blend from Greenwood Fiberworks. Most often I knit with Knit Picks sock yarn, but I also love using Lorna's Laces Shepherd Sock. I have some Koigu in my stash that I haven't gotten to yet, but I have a feeling I'll love it. I'd love to try some new sock yarns.
Other than socks, lately I've also really been into knitting lace. I finished my third shawl a few weeks ago and have been eager to start another one. The next one I'm coveting for myself is the Shetland Triangle from Wrap Style, which I unfortunately do not own yet.
(fiber related) Dislikes:
What fibers can you not stand to knit with? To wear? What colors would you never wear?
Although I learned to knit with acrylic, and for years knit with nothing else but, since I've discovered the natural fibers I haven't been able to stand it. The only thing I use it for now is knitting baby items (easy to wash!) or for the occasional crocheted afghan. I will occasionally tolerate wool blends that have a little bit of acrylic, but only if special circumstances warrant it.
I have very sensitive skin, so I usually can't do very scratchy fibers like mohair. I also don't like angora -- its loose fibers make me sneeze!
One color I absolutely HATE and will never wear is orange, especially bright, contruction cone orange. I can tolerate pinky peach shades, but that's as close as I get.
The Tools:
Plastic or Metal? Bamboo or wood? Circs or Straights? DPNs or Magic Loop? Are there any knitting accessories you don't have in your collection but would like?
My needles of choice are Addi Turbo circulars, followed by dpns. I recently bought some of the Knit Picks circular needles, but haven't had a chance to try them out yet. I usually knit socks (one at a time) on two circular needles, either 12" or 16" in length, but I'm going to try to knit two at once on two longer (32") circs for one of my next pairs.
I'm not sure what knitting accessories I'd want to add to my collection -- maybe those stitch markers that open and close and look like little combination locks? I also hear people talking about Chibis; I have no idea what they are or what they're used for, and I definitely don't have one. Oh, and I've been coveting one of those sheep tape measures.
The Extras:
Do you have a wish list? If so, please share the link! Do you like sweet, sour or salty? (or all of the above?) Do you have any allergies your pal should know about? (Certain foods, smoke, pet hair, etc) Favorite scents? Scents you can't stand? Do you collect anything (other than yarn and knitting toys of course)? When is your birthday? (month and day is fine!) Do you spin? Dye your own yarn? Your favorite author/band/vacation spot, anything you think will help your pal know you better...
So let me see if I can just go down the list and cover all the questions ... I don't have a wish list, so sorry, no link. I like sweet and salty. I am allergic to smoke and strong flower scents, especially lilies. I prefer sutle flower scents, fruit scents (strawberry, pomegranate, mango, etc.), "dessert" scents like coffee or pumpkin spice, and I love the smell of clean laundry. Other than knitting supplies, I can't think of anything else that I collect -- I do have a lot of books. My birthday is March 9 (that makes me a Pisces). I do not spin, and I'm trying not to get sucked in, because I have a feeling I'd quickly become obsessed. I have once dyed my own yarn and enjoyed it, although it was a messy project that took a long time. Favorite author: Jane Austen Favorite vacation spot: Cape Cod, Mass. or Italy Anything else? I'm currently planning my wedding, which will be next September 2.
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
Thus endeth the questionnaire. As promised, I have a bonus photo for you. This is a shot of my favorite knitting spot, in response to Laurie's request to see the places we knit. This is on our third floor, in our "family" room (can you still call it that if there's only two people who technically aren't a family yet?). This is the furniture from my living room in my old apartment. I used to knit sitting on the couch, but now that this chair faces the TV it's my preferred location. You can see my bowl 'o knitting goodies (measuring tape, stitch markers, gauge/needle size tool, sticky notes, etc.) on the coffee table in front of the chair, within easy reach. Most often I knit in the living room downstairs while J tinkers on his laptop, but come the chilly months of winter the third floor will be the coziest spot in the house.
Posted by Sarah at 6:05 PM
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Jenn 7:27 PM
Eighteen years?!? Wow, that's a lotta knitting!
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The company has been plunged into a crisis since Frances Haugen released thousands of pages of internal research documents secretly copied before leaving her job in the firm's civic integrity unit.
A Facebook whistleblower whose claims have rocked the social media giant has launched a fresh attack on Mark Zuckerberg, accusing him of not being willing to protect public safety.
The latest broadside by former employee Frances Haugen comes as she prepares to give evidence to MPs at Westminster.
Her intervention ramps up the pressure on the embattled $1trn (£750bn) company, which has been plunged into a crisis since she released thousands of pages of internal research documents secretly copied before leaving her job in the firm's civic integrity unit.
Ms Haugen is to face questions from MPs scrutinising the draft Online Safety Bill
It comes amid newspaper reports that workers repeatedly warned Facebook was being flooded with misinformation claiming that the 2020 US presidential election result was being rigged.
Workers reportedly believed more should have been done to tackle it.
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It has fuelled renewed concerns about Facebook's role in the 6 January Capitol riots, in which a mob seeking to overturn the election result stormed Congress.
Separate leaked documents also reveal Facebook in India wavered in curbing hate speech and anti-Muslim content on its platform and lacked enough local language moderators to stop misinformation, which at times sparked violence.
Criticising Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg in a interview with The Observer newspaper, Ms Haugen said: "Right now, Mark is unaccountable.
"He has all the control.
"He has no oversight, and he has not demonstrated that he is willing to govern the company at the level that is necessary for public safety."
Facebook is reportedly planning to rebrand with a name change
She said she had leaked the documents because she realised the company would not change otherwise.
Ms Haugen made her comments ahead of facing questions from a UK parliamentary committee scrutinising the draft Online Safety Bill, which aims to regulate tech firms and social media in a bid to curb cyber abuse and threats.
She has already levelled a series allegations against the social network, saying its platforms "harm children, stoke division and weaken our democracy", and that it refused to act because executives put profits above safety.
Ms Haugen has also accused the tech giant of being aware of the apparent harm Instagram could have on some teenagers and their body image, and said the firm had been dishonest in its public fight against hate content and misinformation by concealing research that showed it amplified such content.
Mr Zuckerberg has rejected the claims made by Ms Haugen, saying her attacks on the company were "misrepresenting" the work it does and that it "cares deeply about issues like safety, well-being and mental health".
He added: "At the heart of these accusations is this idea that we prioritise profit over safety and well-being. That's just not true."
Facebook is reportedly planning to rebrand its business name in an apparent bid to distance its wider business from the string of controversies that have engulfed it in recent years.
Among its latest big ideas is the so-called metaverse, a 3D online world the firm wants to lead the way on building, in which people can meet, play and work virtually, often using virtual reality headsets.
#Mark Zuckerberg #Facebook
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Survey shows broken link between reach and revenue as 56 independent publishers reach 10m but earn just £5.4m combined
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Almost 60 of the UK’s independent publishers earned a combined revenue of less than £5.4m in 2020 despite a reach of 10.1m people per month, according to a new report examining the impact of the digital economy on small publications.
By comparison Reach, the UK’s largest commercial publisher, reached an average of 42.1m users per month with revenue of £600.2m while JPI Media, the third biggest, attracted 14.8m monthly uniques and made revenue of £88.2m.
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The findings came in the Public Interest News Foundation’s first Index of Independent News Publishing in the UK which surveyed 56 independent publishers with turnover below £2m because of concerns the digital market is having a “particularly harsh impact” on them.
The survey, carried out in February and March, covered a range of titles across print, digital, audio and video but not licensed broadcasters because of the different regulatory system they abide by. Most were members of the Independent Community News Network, the regulator Impress, or both.
[Read more: Public Interest News Foundation says it has ‘set model’ for what charitable journalism could look like]
PINF, led by Jonathan Heawood (pictured) who joined from his role as chief executive at press regulator Impress, said the findings showed how millions of people rely on small independent publishers for vital information but their reach far outstrips their revenue.
Competing with tech giants
Many said they found it hard to compete with Facebook and Twitter’s “grip on people’s eyeballs” or to persuade the platforms to verify them, making it harder to monetise their content.
PINF urged the Government to recognise the role of independent news publishers through Ofcom and the new Digital Markets Unit as they start regulating the relationship between tech giants and news media.
These publishers are operating on “shoestring” budgets, with their median income just £42,224. Four in ten of them generated less than £20,000.
Using 32% of their total expenditure on editorial costs, each publisher produces an average of 1,000 pieces of content each year and reaches a median of 36,000 unique users each month.
Dr Clare Cook, senior lecturer at the University of Central Lancashire who co-authored the report, said: “Digital open access publishing tools have created a myriad of opportunities to create new public interest news media, but finding a way to be remunerated with a corresponding slice from the digital economy remains a challenge.
“Many are lean operations generating sustainable but small incomes of less than £20,000. Advertising still makes up a significant part of the revenue mix, and the transition to reader revenues is small.
“Clearly, we need more granular understanding of workable revenues, how to generate better returns on investments and the success factors that can drive higher incomes and growth for those for whom economies of scale and scope are not necessarily the forward path.”
The difference between median revenue at those focusing on national news versus local or niche news was vast: £102,008 compared to £21,099.
The report said: “In this way, the digital economy is contributing to a market failure for important forms of journalism. Local and niche forms of news inevitably have smaller audiences than national or general news.
“However, these smaller audiences are no less important. The digital economy’s bias towards scale is not only contributing to a market failure; it is widening the democratic deficit, leaving some communities disenfranchised, and vulnerable to misinformation and disinformation.”
Quarter of revenue from grants
The report drew comparisons with the US market, where 47% of non-profit publishers’ revenue comes from grants. In the UK this was 25%. Heawood told Press Gazette last year grant funding “has to be part of the long-term picture for journalism”.
Meanwhile only 7% of the publishers surveyed said they had received Government advertising or public notice revenue and several complained they missed out even if they had a greater reach than the rival larger publishers in their area.
The ICNN, which represents 108 UK hyperlocal publishers, called for access to any Government, public health or NHS advertising campaigns to be shared with them alongside the News Media Association’s national and regional members as the Covid-19 crisis unfolded, but no policy to this effect was ever introduced.
A third of the publishers in the survey said the best support they could receive would be equitable access to funding and advertising contracts in line with larger organisations.
This was echoed in a recommendation by PINF, which also suggested local or niche titles should receive additional support from policymakers and philanthropists so they can provide vital coverage even when it is commercially unviable.
The report said philanthropy could "unlock" innovation in public interest news and help to "build the independent sector’s capacity for growth".
Most of the publishers said revenue was their biggest challenge. A significant minority pointed to “big tech support for larger organisations” - Facebook and Google make ad-hoc deals with major publishers and Facebook funds community news reporters placed with legacy brands - and “government favouring status quo organisations”.
Independent publishers are heavily dependent on advertising revenue, which has been hit hard during the Covid-19 pandemic, making a third of their revenue, or £1.8m, from ads last year. A third of ad revenue came from direct sell display and classified advertising.
Only one-sixth of revenue at the publishers in the survey came from readers, whether through memberships or subscriptions. Those with a higher percentage of membership revenue tended to be newer, non-profit co-operatives.
The report concluded that having a good engagement strategy was good for revenue, with the publishers with the highest revenues running more webinars, ticketed events, talks and email newsletters.
It also linked having a diverse staff with higher revenues, noting that organisations with a higher proportion of women had higher revenues. However 70% of the publishers employed no ethnic minority staff.
Post-Covid opportunities
Almost a third (30%) of publishers in the survey said their "greatest opportunity" in the next five years was to take advantage of the public's post-Covid awareness of the importance of local journalism.
The responses highlighted the opportunity for independent publishers that have "genuine connected audiences", saying many of them are covering news stories that may otherwise go untold.
Others expect to take advantage of any negative feelings towards the so-called mainstream media, with 14% saying this was their biggest opportunity.
Charts by Aisha Majid
Picture: ivosar/Shutterstock
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Venerable Rewata Dhamma born in Myanmar [Burma], was head of the Birmingham Buddhist Vihara until his death in 2004. His book Maha Paritta: The Discourses of the Great Protection (With the Threefold Refuges, Precepts, Salutations to the Triple Gem, Dependent Origination and Metta Bhavana), gives the formula in Pali and English for requesting Ajivatthamaka Sila (The Eight Precepts with Right Livelihood as the Eighth). (pages 9-12) Venerable Balangoda Ananda Maitreya Mahanayaka Thera Abhidhaja Maharatthaguru Agga Maha Pandita (1896-1998) Venerable Balangoda Ananda Maitreya, born in Sri Lanka, attended the Sixth Buddhist Council held in Myanmar [Burma] (1954-56). In 1956, during the third session of the Council, he served as Chairman of the Convocation for a few weeks. The Council was convened by the Myanmar [Burmese] government to prepare an authorized re-edit and reprint of the entire Tipitaka (the Pali Canon) and its commentaries. Venerable Ananda Maitreya was appointed the Sri
125th Anniversary of Birth of Venerable Dr Balangoda Ananda Maitreya Mahanayaka Thera Aggamaha Pandita Abhidhaja Maharatthaguru DLitt DLitt (23rd August 1896 - 18th July 1998)
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Venerable Ananda Maitreya was one of the most respected Buddhist monks of the twentieth century in Sri Lanka. Venerable Ananda Maitreya was born near Balangoda in Sri Lanka. He was ordained as a novice on 2 March 1911 in Sri Lanka. His upasampada [higher ordination] was conducted on 14 July 1916 in Balangoda Sri Lanka. Although he travelled overseas, he remained rooted in Balangoda and opened Dhammananda Pirivena a monastic college for novice Monks in Balangoda. Venerable Ananda Maitreya played important roles in the revival of Buddhism in Sri Lanka. He served as a lecturer in Pali, Sanskrit and Sinhalese at Ananda College in Colombo. When Nalanda College in Colombo was opened in 1925, he became the first teacher of Buddhism On opening in 1959 Vidyodaya University appointed him a Professor of Mahayana Buddhism in 1959, Dean of the Faculty of Buddhist studies in 1963, and Vice Chancellor in 1966. In 1969, Venerable Ananda Maitreya was appointed as the Mahanayaka [Head] of Am
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Vaccine for yourself, your community, or your country? Examining audiences’ response to distance framing of COVID-19 vaccine messages
Shupei Yuan, Haoran Chu
Public Relations
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Overview
Fingerprint
Abstract
Objective: This study explored the effects of COVID-19 vaccine promotion messages highlighting the benefit at individual, community, and country levels. Based on the cultural theory of risks, we investigated how individuals’ valuation of individualism vs. communitarianism and hierarchical vs. egalitarian social structure affect their responses to vaccine messages. Methods: An online experiment (N = 702) with four video message conditions (individual-centered, community-centered, country-centered, and no message) was conducted. Participants were asked about their cultural cognition worldview, then were randomly assigned to view one message. Participants also reported their willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccines and support for vaccine mandate. Results: Respondents were more likely to get vaccinated and support vaccine mandates after viewing an individual-centered message, less with a community-centered message. Individuals who value individualism were more likely to respond positively to individual-centered messages, but those who believe more in communitarianism value were less likely. Conclusion: Results showed that individuals are motivated selectively to respond to certain claims that cohere with their worldview and therefore respond differently to vaccine benefit frames. Practice Implications: The results point to the importance of understanding audiences’ worldviews. By identifying this process through hierarchical and individualistic values, properly designed health promotion messages can maximize the desired outcomes.
Original language
English
Journal
Patient Education and Counseling
DOIs
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pec.2021.08.019
State
Accepted/In press - 2021
Keywords
Benefit frames
Cultural cognition
Health communication
Vaccine message
Access to Document
10.1016/j.pec.2021.08.019
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Link to publication in Scopus
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Dive into the research topics of 'Vaccine for yourself, your community, or your country? Examining audiences’ response to distance framing of COVID-19 vaccine messages'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.
Vaccines Medicine & Life Sciences 100%
Social Responsibility Medicine & Life Sciences 52%
Health Promotion Medicine & Life Sciences 21%
Cognition Medicine & Life Sciences 17%
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Yuan, S., & Chu, H. (Accepted/In press). Vaccine for yourself, your community, or your country? Examining audiences’ response to distance framing of COVID-19 vaccine messages. Patient Education and Counseling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pec.2021.08.019
Yuan, Shupei ; Chu, Haoran. / Vaccine for yourself, your community, or your country? Examining audiences’ response to distance framing of COVID-19 vaccine messages. In: Patient Education and Counseling. 2021.
@article{405296097fd3423b8de5496c38bf37bf,
title = "Vaccine for yourself, your community, or your country? Examining audiences{\textquoteright} response to distance framing of COVID-19 vaccine messages",
abstract = "Objective: This study explored the effects of COVID-19 vaccine promotion messages highlighting the benefit at individual, community, and country levels. Based on the cultural theory of risks, we investigated how individuals{\textquoteright} valuation of individualism vs. communitarianism and hierarchical vs. egalitarian social structure affect their responses to vaccine messages. Methods: An online experiment (N = 702) with four video message conditions (individual-centered, community-centered, country-centered, and no message) was conducted. Participants were asked about their cultural cognition worldview, then were randomly assigned to view one message. Participants also reported their willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccines and support for vaccine mandate. Results: Respondents were more likely to get vaccinated and support vaccine mandates after viewing an individual-centered message, less with a community-centered message. Individuals who value individualism were more likely to respond positively to individual-centered messages, but those who believe more in communitarianism value were less likely. Conclusion: Results showed that individuals are motivated selectively to respond to certain claims that cohere with their worldview and therefore respond differently to vaccine benefit frames. Practice Implications: The results point to the importance of understanding audiences{\textquoteright} worldviews. By identifying this process through hierarchical and individualistic values, properly designed health promotion messages can maximize the desired outcomes.",
keywords = "Benefit frames, Cultural cognition, Health communication, Vaccine message",
author = "Shupei Yuan and Haoran Chu",
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language = "English",
journal = "Patient Education and Counseling",
issn = "0738-3991",
}
Yuan, S & Chu, H 2021, 'Vaccine for yourself, your community, or your country? Examining audiences’ response to distance framing of COVID-19 vaccine messages', Patient Education and Counseling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pec.2021.08.019
Vaccine for yourself, your community, or your country? Examining audiences’ response to distance framing of COVID-19 vaccine messages. / Yuan, Shupei; Chu, Haoran.
In: Patient Education and Counseling, 2021.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Vaccine for yourself, your community, or your country? Examining audiences’ response to distance framing of COVID-19 vaccine messages
AU - Yuan, Shupei
AU - Chu, Haoran
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Objective: This study explored the effects of COVID-19 vaccine promotion messages highlighting the benefit at individual, community, and country levels. Based on the cultural theory of risks, we investigated how individuals’ valuation of individualism vs. communitarianism and hierarchical vs. egalitarian social structure affect their responses to vaccine messages. Methods: An online experiment (N = 702) with four video message conditions (individual-centered, community-centered, country-centered, and no message) was conducted. Participants were asked about their cultural cognition worldview, then were randomly assigned to view one message. Participants also reported their willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccines and support for vaccine mandate. Results: Respondents were more likely to get vaccinated and support vaccine mandates after viewing an individual-centered message, less with a community-centered message. Individuals who value individualism were more likely to respond positively to individual-centered messages, but those who believe more in communitarianism value were less likely. Conclusion: Results showed that individuals are motivated selectively to respond to certain claims that cohere with their worldview and therefore respond differently to vaccine benefit frames. Practice Implications: The results point to the importance of understanding audiences’ worldviews. By identifying this process through hierarchical and individualistic values, properly designed health promotion messages can maximize the desired outcomes.
AB - Objective: This study explored the effects of COVID-19 vaccine promotion messages highlighting the benefit at individual, community, and country levels. Based on the cultural theory of risks, we investigated how individuals’ valuation of individualism vs. communitarianism and hierarchical vs. egalitarian social structure affect their responses to vaccine messages. Methods: An online experiment (N = 702) with four video message conditions (individual-centered, community-centered, country-centered, and no message) was conducted. Participants were asked about their cultural cognition worldview, then were randomly assigned to view one message. Participants also reported their willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccines and support for vaccine mandate. Results: Respondents were more likely to get vaccinated and support vaccine mandates after viewing an individual-centered message, less with a community-centered message. Individuals who value individualism were more likely to respond positively to individual-centered messages, but those who believe more in communitarianism value were less likely. Conclusion: Results showed that individuals are motivated selectively to respond to certain claims that cohere with their worldview and therefore respond differently to vaccine benefit frames. Practice Implications: The results point to the importance of understanding audiences’ worldviews. By identifying this process through hierarchical and individualistic values, properly designed health promotion messages can maximize the desired outcomes.
KW - Benefit frames
KW - Cultural cognition
KW - Health communication
KW - Vaccine message
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85114328641&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.pec.2021.08.019
DO - 10.1016/j.pec.2021.08.019
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85114328641
JO - Patient Education and Counseling
JF - Patient Education and Counseling
SN - 0738-3991
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Yuan S, Chu H. Vaccine for yourself, your community, or your country? Examining audiences’ response to distance framing of COVID-19 vaccine messages. Patient Education and Counseling. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pec.2021.08.019
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As the countries around the world continue to work to protect people from COVID-19, the Biden Administration has released additional detail around implementation of the new international air travel policy requiring foreign national travelers to the United States to be fully vaccinated. This updated policy puts in place an international travel system that
is stringent, consistent across the globe, and guided by public health.
Starting on November 8, non-citizen, non-immigrant air travelers to the United States will be required to be fully vaccinated and to provide proof of COVID-19 vaccination status prior to boarding an airplane to fly to the U.S., with only limited exceptions. The updated travel guidelines also include new protocols around testing. To further strengthen protections, unvaccinated travelers – whether U.S. Citizens, lawful permanent residents (LPRs), or the small number of excepted unvaccinated foreign nationals – will now need to test within one day of departure.
Today, the Administration is releasing the following documents to implement these
requirements:
1) A Presidential Proclamation to Advance the Safe Resumption of Global Travel During the COVID-19 Pandemic;
2) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Orders on vaccination, testing, and contact tracing; and
3) Technical instructions to provide implementation details to the airlines and their passengers. With science and public health as our guide, the United States has developed a new international air travel system that both enhances the safety of Americans here at home and enhances the safety of international air travel. The additional detail released today provides airlines and international air travelers with time to prepare for this new policy ahead of the November 8 implementation date. As previously announced, fully vaccinated foreign nationals will also be able to travel across the Northern and Southwest land borders for non-essential reasons, such as tourism, starting on November 8. Additional detail on amendments to restrictions with respect to land borders will be available in the coming days. Travelers can find full details about today’s air travel announcement on the CDC and Department of State websites. A summary is below:
The White House has outlined new rules for foreign travelers to the US, as flight restrictions lift for the first time since the pandemic began in 2020.
The plan to reopen the US border next month to foreign flights includes a requirement that almost all foreign visitors be vaccinated against Covid.
The US travel ban has grown to include dozens of countries, including the UK, much of Europe, China and India.
The travel industry has been asking for US President Joe Biden to lift the ban.
Originally imposed by Donald Trump, the ban on flights from most foreign countries was extended when Mr Biden took power in January 2021.
The rule bans most visitors from Brazil, China, South Africa, the UK, the 26 Schengen countries in Europe, Ireland, India and Iran.
The proclamation signed by Mr Biden on Monday, October 25th says that airlines will be required to check travelers’ vaccination status before they can board departing planes.
“It is in the interests of the United States to move away from the country-by-country restrictions previously applied during the Covid-19 pandemic and to adopt an air travel policy that relies primarily on vaccination to advance the safe resumption of international air travel to the United States,” Mr Biden’s proclamation says.
Fully Vaccinated Status:
• Starting on November 8, non-citizen, non-immigrant air travelers to the United States will be required to be fully vaccinated and to provide proof of vaccination status prior to boarding an airplane to fly to the U.S.
Proof of Vaccination:
• For foreign nationals, proof of vaccination will be required – with very limited exceptions – to board the plane.
Passengers will need to show their vaccination status, and the airlines will need to:
Match the name and date of birth to confirm the passenger is the same person reflected on the proof of vaccination;
Determine that the record was issued by an official source (e.g., public health agency, government agency) in the country where the vaccine was given;
.Review the essential information for determining if the passenger meets CDC’s definition for fully vaccinated such as vaccine product, number of vaccine doses received, date(s) of administration, site (e.g., vaccination clinic, health care facility) of vaccination.
• The Biden Administration will work closely with the airlines to ensure that these new requirements are implemented successfully.Accepted Vaccines:
• CDC has determined that for purposes of travel to the United States, vaccines accepted will include FDA approved or authorized and World Health Organization (WHO) emergency use listed (EUL) vaccines.
• Individuals can be considered fully vaccinated ≥2 weeks after receipt of the last dose if they have received any single dose of an FDA approved/authorized or WHO EUL approved single-dose series (i.e., Janssen), or any combination of two doses of an FDA approved/authorized or WHO emergency use listed COVID-19 two-dose series (i.e. mixing and matching).
• More details are available in the CDC Annex here.
Enhanced Testing:
• Previously, all travelers were required to produce a negative viral test result within three days of travel to the United States.
• Both nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs), such as a PCR test, and antigen tests qualify.
• As announced in September, the new system tightens those requirements, so that unvaccinated U.S. Citizens and LPRs will need to provide a negative test taken within one day of traveling.
• That means that all fully vaccinated U.S. Citizens and LPRs traveling to the United States should be prepared to present documentation of their vaccination status alongside their negative test result.
• For those Americans who can show they are fully vaccinated, the same requirement currently in place will apply – they have to produce a negative test result within three days of travel.
• For anyone traveling to the United States who cannot demonstrate proof of full vaccination, they will have to produce documentation of a negative test within one day of departure.
Requirements for Children:
Children under 18 are excepted from the vaccination requirement for foreign national travelers, given both the ineligibility of some younger children for vaccination, as well as the global variability in access to vaccination for older children who are eligible to be vaccinated.
• Children between the ages of 2 and 17 are required to take a pre-departure test.
• If traveling with a fully vaccinated adult, an unvaccinated child can test three days prior to departure (consistent with the timeline for fully vaccinated adults). If an unvaccinated child is traveling alone or with unvaccinated adults, they will have to test within one day of departure.Limited Exceptions from the Vaccination Requirement:
• There are a very limited set of exceptions from the vaccination requirement for foreign nationals. These include exceptions for children under 18, certain COVID- 19 vaccine clinical trial participants, those with medical contraindications to the vaccines, those who need to travel for emergency or humanitarian reasons (with a US government-issued letter affirming the urgent need to travel), those who are traveling on non-tourist visas from countries with low-vaccine availability (as determined by the CDC), and other very narrow categories.
Contact Tracing:
• The CDC is also issuing a Contact Tracing Order that requires all airlines flying into the United States to keep on hand – and promptly turn over to the CDC, when needed – contact information that will allow public health officials to follow up with inbound air travelers who are potentially infected or have been exposed to someone who is infected.
• This is a critical public health measure both to prevent the introduction, transmission, and spread of new variants of COVID-19 as well as to add a critical prevention tool to address other public health threats.
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Recently, Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) scored a major victory over COVID-19 vaccine mandates in the form of support from the state’s Attorney General, Ken Paxton. Paxton proclaimed that the governor is well within his rights to institute a ban that prevents companies operating in Texas from mandating the vaccine for employees, and he is presently suing the Biden administration over the mandate.
In a statement to Fox News, Paxton declared, “the governor has authority under state law to respond to these types of issues,” adding that Abbott has “done just that.”
“Obviously, it is [Abbott’s] view that these mask mandates are unnecessary and that vaccine requirements are also unnecessary,” Paxton continued, noting that it his job “to go and defend what he has done and what the legislature has done.”
“I’m perfectly comfortable doing that,” Paxton remarked cheerfully.
Chris Wallace, who played a video that showed Paxton instructing businesses to ignore Biden over vaccine mandates, inquired whether or not Abbott is able to prevent businesses from adhering to Biden’s vaccine mandate for companies that employ more than 100 workers.
“[Biden] does not have the ability to force companies,” Paxton replied, noting that a stay in the Fifth Court has already “[stopped] them from forcing companies to require workers to get the vaccine.”
Due to the stay, Paxton asserted that companies do not have to adhere to Biden’s vaccine mandate
The Texas Attorney General also referenced “different types of requirements” currently at play, and he noted that companies should carefully evaluate the various ill effects that vaccine mandates could cause for their workforce and business operations.
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Paxton observed that companies likely could not lose valuable employees at this point in time, particularly employees in healthcare or transport industries.
Wallace, after playing a video showing Paxton saying businesses should not listen to Biden but instead take care of their businesses, asked the attorney general how Abbott can ban businesses from issuing vaccine mandates for their companies’ employees.
Paxton also weighed in on the federal government’s lawsuit against the state of Texas over its highly controversial abortion legislation, which prevents abortions after six weeks. He argued that his job is not to create and pass the laws, but rather to defend them.
“This case … is not about the substance whether Roe v. Wade is going to be overturned,” Paxton remarked. Instead, the case centers on whether or not the federal government has the standing to sue Texas and its Attorney General over the legislation.
Paxton openly supports the new law, indicating that he is proud of the state legislature’s efforts to take every action possible “to protect human life.”
Wallace pressed Paxton on his beliefs regarding potential exceptions, such as cases of incest or rape. However, the Texas Attorney General indicated that the Texas law is “defensible,” and he reiterated that it is “important to protect life.”
Paxton is currently under investigation from the FBI after facing accusations of bribery, but he remarked that he has been “dealing with this kind of fight” for an extended period of time.
In the upcoming election, Paxton will be challenged by George P. Bush, a Republican who serves as the Texas Land Commissioner. Bush has drawn attention to Paxton’s “competence” and “character” due to the FBI’s ongoing investigation.
However, Paxton dismisses the investigation as the natural outcome of the work he does as the state’s Attorney General.
“When you go out and do the type of things I’ve done, you’re going to be challenged,” Paxton reflected.
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Between bank fees, local ATM fees and a currency exchange fee I once paid a $13 fee to take $100 out of an ATM in Rio de Janeiro. There goes the daily budget. And I had really been looking forward to eating.
You obviously can’t carry all the cash you’ll need for your entire trip. I spent about five minutes on my first trip wearing this secret under-the-shirt money hider thingy that I had read was a necessity for the paranoid American traveler. It was hot and ridiculous. You need to use ATMs along the way.
So how to keep the price gouging to a minimum? You need two things: a credit card with no currency exchange fees and a debit card with no international withdrawal fees.
One of my best discoveries was the Charles Schwab High Yield Investor Checking account. This debit card not only does away with international ATM fees but they will actually REFUND back to you any fees that the local ATM charges.
This is excellent for so many reasons.
The obvious: less fees means more money spent on actual travel and less unearned income going back to the top of the economic food chain. Yay!
The ability to go to any ATM on an as-needed basis allows you to budget for upcoming currency exchanges. So if you know you’ll only be in Vietnam for another day before heading to China, you can take out a small amount of cash to get you through the day. Then take money out of an ATM after arriving in China. This kind of planning saves you a ton of gouging in currency exchange fees.
This also lets you carry less cash on hand which prevents much unnecessary stress, paranoia and secret money pouch sweat.
So now I always carry a very small emergency stash of USD to exchange if needed, but use a credit card and ATM card as I go, taking out cash every few days.
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In Senegal, young people living in impoverished communities along the coast are increasingly viewing their future elsewhere, and choosing to leave the country. But the crossing is treacherous. Migrants typically leave from Mbour, some 100 kilometres (60 miles) south of the capital Dakar, in crammed traditional fishing canoes. The International Organization for Migration says that over 500 people have died this year, most in October and November.
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Nicaragua tourist visa is free for South Korean citizens. The maximum duration of stay is 3 months. You can also find useful tips from fellow travellers.
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Nicaragua COVID-19 travel restrictions
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Nicaragua has moderate restrictions for travel. Most visitors from South Korea need to provide a negative COVID-19 test result to enter Nicaragua. No quarantine is required. Find travel restrictions, quarantine and entry requirements to travel Nicaragua.
Travel Restrictions
Central American Single Visa
The Central American Single Visa (Visa Única Centroamericana) is a visa for Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. It was implemented by the CA-4 agreement. It allows citizens of those four countries free access to other member countries. It also allows visitors to any member country to enter another member country without having to obtain another visa.
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Max Stay: 3 months
Nicaragua tourist visa requirements for South Korean citizens
5 documents required for Nicaragua tourist visa
1
Health Document
Negative COVID-19 PCR test result required for all international travellers coming to Nicaragua. The negative PCR test must be issued with in 72 hours of before departure.
2
Vaccination Document
COVID-19 vaccination proof for travellers coming to Nicaragua. The last dose of vaccine must be taken atleast 14 ays before departure.
3
Passport
Original Passport or Travel document of South Korea with at least 6 months remaining validity on the date of travel and have at least 2 visa pages clear of any markings.
4
Travel itinerary
Travel itinerary (travel reservation to and from South Korea in your name, not a ticket) Embassy recommends not to purchase hotel and flight tickets until visa is approved. So don’t risk your money, time and effort by buying actual tickets. Get best hotel and flight itinerary within minutes for any country visa.
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Proof of Funds
Proof of enough money for your stay and to leave Nicaragua
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Do south korean citizens need a visa to go to Nicaragua?
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{{ednote|'''Peter 23Mar15:''' This page is a Work-In-Progress. }} ==Regression testing== {{note| Regression testing is a type of software testing that seeks to uncover new software bugs, or regressions, in existing functional and non-functional areas of a system after changes such as enhancements, patches or configuration changes, have been made to them. The intent of regression testing is to ensure that changes such as those mentioned above have not introduced new faults. One of the main reasons for regression testing is to determine whether a change in one part of the software affects other parts of the software. Common methods of regression testing include rerunning previously completed tests and checking whether application behavior has changed and whether previously fixed faults have re-emerged. Regression testing can be performed to test a system efficiently by systematically selecting the appropriate minimum set of tests needed to adequately cover a particular change. Contrast with [[#nrt|non-regression testing]] (usually validation-test for a new issue), which aims to verify whether, after introducing or updating a given software application, the change has had the intended effect. }} Regression test scripts to be linked to from here when written and should include: # [[Testing: LP/tape transcription|LP tape transcription to CD/iTunes]] # [[Testing:Recording web-stream and exporting the result|Recording web-stream and exporting the result as MP3/WAV]] # Overdubbing # Multi-track editing # [[Testing: timing tests|Timing tests for common exports and common effects such as Amplify and Noise Reduction. The tests should take around two hours to complete.]] {{note|'''Peter 23Mar15:''' These should be '''''formally''''' undertaken on each Release Candidate as part of the release process. }} <div id="nrt"></div> ==Non-regression testing== {{note| Non-regression testing (NRT), or simply validation of a new issue, is an approach to software testing. The purpose of non-regression testing is to verify whether, after introducing or updating a given software application, the change has had the intended effect. }} This should be undertaken on an ongoing basis as new features are added or modified - driven by the entries in the changes log, working either with the posted alphas or a test Audacity version that you build yourself incorporating the patch changes. {{ednote|'''Gale 23Mar15:''' This is the bulk of the testing I do in a release cycle. When there is a features-driven release, much of the final testing can't be started until the "feature freeze" stage has been reached where no new further features are added and the already-added new features are being bug fixed.}} <div id="automated"></div> ==Automated Testing== '''James 27Mar15:''' We ''should'' use and improve the scripting feature to make scripted tests. My experience is that automated pass/fail tests end up repeatedly testing things you already know work. A much better strategy is to build tests that :(a) return performance information and : (b) produce screenshots for the manual. Performance information gives you 'more bits of information' per test, disk, RAM and CPU utilisation. Producing screenshots forces you to walk through nearly all of the code, and also potentially saves documentation team time when changes are made to the user interface. I am using some simple macros so that we can safely leave logging and performance monitoring permanently in the code in debug and release. These work with a count, so that they log the first ten times they occur, and then just count occurrences after that. That makes them almost zero cost even in release builds. The macros look like this: DIAG( message ) TRACK_MEM( message, amount ) PERFMON_START( message, timername ) PERFMON_STOP( message, timername ) In running code we can go and reset selected counters, if we want more monitoring. The DIAG macro just logs a message. TRACK_MEM keeps track of memory allocated and deleted. PERFMON START and STOP measure time intervals. If we additionally load the module mod-test, we get a running display of the counters. Developers need to add detection of 'dropped packets' into the code. I plan to use DIAG for that. I have sometimes played a piece of audio and heard a glitch, and then played it again with no glitch - a fairly clear sign that disk was not keeping up with output stream. The second time the audio would already be in memory. We need some long running tests, such as recording for 24 hours, possibly with a test signal so we can confirm the quality of the recording. I suggest that the bulk of our long running tests should mostly be for recording and be at the 4hr mark, with just a few outliers for longer periods. There are some known regressions with editing and handling of longer projects (https://bugzilla.audacityteam.org/show_bug.cgi?id=218 and https://bugzilla.audacityteam.org/show_bug.cgi?id=765 ) that need to be cleared before we can sensibly do long running tests. If we have a number of different automated long-running tests, Audacity may be changing even before we complete running all the long tests. We need to do this testing on an ongoing basis, rather than as a formal part of an release as there is no time for long running tests then. We should 'drop in' an updated Audacity between tests, and continue the tests from there. Otherwise, if we reset to the start of the tests, the first few tests will get exercised a lot and the later ones hardly ever run.
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A Victorian couple has copped another hefty fine after breaching stay-at-home orders during their stop-over in New South Wales before taking coronavirus to Queensland.
NSW Police today revealed the 48-year-old man and 44-year-old woman who skipped Melbourne's lockdown earlier this month had been fined $1000 each after making an unlawful pit-stop at a Dubbo cinema.
The pair left Melbourne on June 1, leaving behind a trail of exposure sites as they travelled to the Sunshine Coast by road via the Newell Highway through regional NSW.
READ MORE: Sydney's centre, east sent into lockdown
The Victorian couple saw a movie at Reading Cinemas in Dubbo. (Google Maps)
Under border restrictions at the time, Victorians could travel to NSW but they had to follow stay-at-home directives, meaning they could only go out to shop for food and supplies, essential work, medical and caregiving reasons and for exercise.
The couple visited various locations during their trip which were deemed 'essential'.
But police said going to the movies was not one of the permitted reasons to leave home and therefore breached health directions.
The pair went to Reading Cinemas on Macquarie Street on June 2.
READ MORE: Two COVID-19 cases emerge at Melbourne dry cleaner
The couple travelled from Melbourne to Caloundra, via New South Wales. (Graphic: Tara Blancato)
There were long testing lines in Dubbo after the Victorian couple stopped in the regional NSW town. (9News)
"Investigations revealed the pair had taken a route using the Newell Highway, and visited various businesses deemed 'essential services', including retail stores, food outlets, and service stations," a police statement read.
"The pair also attended a cinema on Macquarie Street, Dubbo, on Wednesday 2 June 2021, which is deemed non-essential activity under the Public Health Act.
"Officers from Orana Mid-Western Police District have since advised the 48-year-old man and 44-year-old woman they will each be issued a $1000 PIN for fail to comply with noticed direction."
The fresh fines take the couple's penalties to a collective total of $10,000 after they were fined $4003 each by Queensland Police last week for flouting border restrictions.
Queensland Police in a statement said the pair had been fined for allegedly providing "false information" on their border declarations.
"Detectives from Task Force Sierra Linnet have issued a Penalty Infringement Notice (PIN) to a man and woman for allegedly providing false information on their Queensland border declarations," the statement read.
"Police will allege the duo travelled into Queensland on June 5, via Goondiwindi after having been in Victoria and deliberately provided false information to obtain a Queensland Border Declaration Pass 'G' pass."
The couple arrived in Queensland on June 5 and had been staying with family in Caloundra when they tested positive to coronavirus.
The 44-year-old woman returned a positive coronavirus test on June 9, the same day the city's two-week lockdown was given the green light to end.
Her 48-year-old husband then tested positive the following day on June 10.
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Property News: Music promoter Michael Coppel sells Toorak home for more than $30 million - domain.com.au
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On Transgender Day of Visibility, we recognize and celebrate the lives and achievements of youth and families who identify as transgender or gender-diverse. Children’s Minnesota has the gift of working with transgender and gender diverse kids and teens in our Gender Health program. We are consistently impressed by their courage, resilience, creativity, kindness, humor and all the ways they are amazing each and every day.
At Children’s Minnesota, we also recognize the unique impacts that the COVID-19 pandemic is having on transgender and gender-diverse youth and families. Feeling connected to peers through school groups and youth drop-in centers is often crucial for LGBTQ young people. Sometimes, these places are the only chance for LGBTQ youth to fully be themselves and feel affirmed. When access to those programs and activities is limited or cut off, that can have a significant impact on their overall well-being.
How COVID-19 is impacting transgender and gender-diverse kids and teens
The COVID-19 outbreak has led communities to close schools, encourage social distancing and other strategies in order to reduce the spread of the virus. The social isolation that results from being at home and lack of connection to friends and other important figures is stressful, particularly if their families are not supportive of their gender identity.
50-60 percent of LGBTQ youth do not feel supported by families in their identities, and they may hear negative comments about their identities in their homes. In addition, LGBTQ+ youth may not have a home, as they are 120 percent more likely to experience homelessness than their straight and cisgender peers.
These factors are combined with the fact that transgender youth are far more likely than their non-transgender peers to experience depression — nearly four times the risk, according to one study (Reisner 2015), making the social isolation that can come with “shelter in place” and other physical distancing tools during the COVID-19 pandemic even harder for LGBTQ youth.
For transgender children and youth, family and community support makes all the difference. Although research has repeatedly found that transgender children experience mental health problems, including higher rates of suicidality, a recent study found that transgender children whose families affirmed their gender identity were as psychologically healthy as their non-transgender peers (Olson 2016).
Helping transgender and gender-diverse youth during COVID-19
For youth to thrive in schools, homes and communities, they need to feel socially, emotionally and physically safe and supported. Helping transgender and gender-diverse youth feel seen, heard, and loved during this time will involve reminding them of supportive social connections. Remember that you can practice physical distancing to reduce the spread of COVID-19 while still supporting youth to be socially and emotionally connected.
The following resources for LGBTQ+ youth and families have a specific focus on transgender and gender-diverse youth, help promote connectedness, build community, and celebrate the courage it takes for youth to live out their authentic identities, particularly in challenging times.
Resources for LGBTQ+ youth and families
The Neighborhood: A virtual hub for LGBTQ+ families with a list of virtual events during the COVID-19 pandemic for families and kids of all ages.
It Gets Better Project: Listen to stories of LGBTQ+ youth and find local resources.
Ten Percent Happier: A meditation website and app that provides a Coronavirus Sanity Guide for youth and parents.
Gender Spectrum: A resource for transgender, gender-diverse and non-binary youth and families with several online groups for youth and families.
TIGERRS: Social support group in MN for trans and gender expansive youth. Check out their Facebook page for virtual ways to connect.
Transforming Families: A Twin Cities based support group for families of transgender and gender-diverse youth. Monthly meetings will be held via Zoom.
Q Chat Space: A bully-free online community of LGBTQ+ teens that can chat with their peers and trained staff from LGBTQ+ centers around the country.
Walk-in Counseling: A Twin Cities based organization that provides free therapy, is now offering free phone or internet-based counseling state wide.
Crisis numbers
In addition to the resources above, there are different crisis lines that can be accessed 24 hours a day.
Trevor Project: (866)-488-7386 or text START to 678678
Trans Lifeline: (877)-565-8860
MN Crisis text line: Text MN to 741741
If shelter is needed
Bridge for Youth is a shelter for youth that is LGBTQ+ affirming and focuses on reuniting families when safe and possible.
Children’s Minnesota Gender Health program
COVID-19 has put communities around the nation in an uncertain time. Children’s Minnesota is here to help anyone struggling with social isolation, including transgender and gender-diverse youth.
Children’s Minnesota Gender Health program is an exclusively pediatric, multidisciplinary gender health program, and includes pediatric gender health, endocrinology and gynecology physicians and social work.
The Gender Health program provides compassionate and comprehensive care for transgender and gender-diverse youth. We’re dedicated to serving as an essential medical partner and resource for transgender youth and families along their journey. We are here to help, every step along the way.
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Made from breathable, extremely soft, light weight, bamboo fabric that is easy to use, clean and maintain. Opt for comfort, convenience and versatility.
Designed to help you breastfeed your bundle of joy on-the-go, our high quality, multi-use-nursing cover offers you the privacy you want. It can be used as a nursing cover, scarf, shopping cart cover, a baby stroller cover and more!
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Medical Access
Our gowns have been designed to ensure you don’t have to be completely exposed during your labor. There is no need to walk around in a hospital gown that is open in the back.
We’ve created our gowns so your nurses, doctors or midwives have easy and quick accessibility to monitor you and your baby and you have the access needed for immediate skin-to-skin with you baby keeping you and your baby warm and concealed
Shoulder Snaps for Immediate Skin-to-Skin & Breastfeeding Access.
Simply unsnap the shoulder snaps, place baby on your bare chest and replace gown, keeping your baby and you comfortable and cozy for those important 60 minutes of immediate skin-to-skin bonding. You no longer need to struggle with peeling off two layers of hospital gowns to gain optimal access.
Benefits of Skin-to-skin for mom & baby
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During labor your nurse will be able to monitor your baby’s heartbeat easily with this access without you having to hike your hospital gown up and feeling exposed.
C-section exams have never been more easier! Simply unsnap the front snaps to uncover your incision/ also ideal to air out incision to speed up healing.
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Very nicely made
It’s very pretty and very nicely made. It works great as a car seat cover. I purchased it to use as a breastfeeding cover, but because I’m just big (6 foot tall and XL shirt size), it’s hard to use for a feeding cover.
Hi Jen, thanks so much for your feedback. Please feel free to return your product for a refund if it is not working well for you :)
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Super comfortable
Quick delivery - true to size fit - The Avery Is super soft in comparison to "the lyla", not due till Oct. So haven't tried anything other than fit and comfort though.
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Subcorneal pustular dermatosis and thymoma: An association or a coincidence? Agarwal A, Shivaswamy K N, Raja B, Thappa DM, Verma SK - Indian J Dermatol
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CASE REPORT
Year : 2006 | Volume : 51 | Issue : 4 | Page : 272-274
Subcorneal pustular dermatosis and thymoma: An association or a coincidence?
Anuja Agarwal1, KN Shivaswamy1, Barani Raja1, Devinder M Thappa1, Surendra Kumar Verma2
1 Department of Dermatology and STD, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research (JIPMER), Pondicherry - 605 006, India
2 Department of Pathology, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research (JIPMER), Pondicherry - 605 006, India
Correspondence Address:
Devinder M Thappa
Department of Dermatology and STD, JIPMER, Pondicherry - 605 006
India
Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None
Check
DOI: 10.4103/0019-5154.30293
Abstract
A 36-year-old male came to us with a six months history of a generalized, itchy, pus-filled eruption and a change in voice of five months duration. Healthy looking male on cutaneous examination revealed numerous isolated and grouped vesicles and vesiculopustules ranging from 5-10 mm on both normal and erythematous skin over the face, trunk, buttocks and extremities. Both flaccid and tense vesicles were seen along with some of them coalescing to form circinate or polycyclic patterns with crusting. Most of these lesions showed hypopyon formation. Nikolsky's sign and bulla-spread sign were negative. Histopathology and direct immunofluorescence substantiated our clinical diagnosis of subcorneal pustular dermatosis (SCPD). On investigation, he was found to have thymoma. We herewith report an association of SCPD with thymoma in this case report, not yet reported in the literature.
Keywords: Subcorneal pustular dermatosis, thymoma
How to cite this article:
Agarwal A, Shivaswamy K N, Raja B, Thappa DM, Verma SK. Subcorneal pustular dermatosis and thymoma: An association or a coincidence?. Indian J Dermatol 2006;51:272-4
How to cite this URL:
Agarwal A, Shivaswamy K N, Raja B, Thappa DM, Verma SK. Subcorneal pustular dermatosis and thymoma: An association or a coincidence?. Indian J Dermatol [serial online] 2006 [cited 2021 Dec 7];51:272-4. Available from: https://www.e-ijd.org/text.asp?2006/51/4/272/30293
Introduction
Subcorneal pustular dermatosis (SCPD) was first described by Sneddon and Wilkinson in 1956. It is a chronic, benign, relapsing pustular eruption, mainly involving trunk and affecting particularly women over 40 years of age.[1] Usually there are no constitutional symptoms.[1],[2] We herewith report an association of SCPD with thymoma in this case report.
Case Report
A 36-year-old male came to us with a six months history of a generalized, itchy, pus filled eruption and a change in voice of five months duration. Both isolated and grouped pea-sized pus filled lesions were noticed on both normal and erythematous skin, rupturing in two to three days to form thin crusts and healing with a faint pigmentation. There was no history of preceding infection, drug intake or similar disorder in the family.
Healthy looking male on cutaneous examination revealed numerous isolated and grouped vesicles and vesiculopustules ranging from 5-10 mm on both normal and erythematous skin over the face, trunk [Figure - 1], buttocks and extremities. Both flaccid and tense vesicles were seen along with some of them coalescing to form circinate or polycyclic patterns with crusting. Most of these lesions showed hypopyon formation. Nikolsky's sign and bulla-spread sign were negative. The scalp, palms, soles, nails and mucous membranes were normal.
ENT examination was unremarkable except for a left aryepiglottic fold cyst seen on indirect laryngoscopy. General physical and systemic examination was normal.
On the basis of the above clinical findings, a clinical diagnosis of SCPD was made. Tzanck smear from one of the vesicles showed the presence of neutrophils but no acantholytic cells. Histopathological examination from one of the vesiculopustules revealed a subcorneal split filled with neutrophils [Figure - 2]. Neither acantholytic cells nor spongiosis was evident. The rest of the epidermis and dermis was normal. Direct immunofluorescence from perilesional skin showed scanty deposits of IgA, IgM, C3 and fibrinogen over BMZ and around blood vessels. Routine laboratory investigations including CBC, liver and renal function tests were normal. Chest roentgenogram revealed well-defined soft tissue opacity in the left para-cardiac region suggestive of a mediastinal mass lesion. CT scan of thorax showed a large, moderately enhancing anterior mediastinal mass abutting left anterior chest wall and great vessels with clear demarcation. Ultrasound guided FNAC from the mass lesion depicted a cluster of spindle cells suggestive of thymoma [Figure - 3]. Neostigmine test, electromyogram, RA factor, thyroid profile, urine for Bence Jones proteins, serum electrophoresis, cryoglobulins and antinuclear antibody were negative. With these findings an association of SCPD with thymoma was considered.
The patient was put on dapsone 100 mg daily. Most of the lesions cleared within within weeks of therapy but few new lesions still continued to appear. However, on doubling the dose, new lesions stopped appearing. The thymoma was surgically removed following which temporary exacerbation of skin lesions was followed by subsidence.
Discussion
SCPD is characterized by flaccid pustules or vesiculopustules, when fully formed the pus accumulates in the lower half of the pustule, leaving clear fluid in the upper half.[1] These lesions, isolated or grouped, are superficial, flaccid and easily ruptured by friction. They have a tendency to coalesce forming bizarre circinate or serpiginous patterns. Usually, the eruption fades with a faint pigmentation over which new waves of pustules arise. The areas most commonly involved are the groins, axillae and submammary regions. Palms and soles are occasionally involved, the face very rarely and the head and mucous membranes never. Our patient had facial involvement in addition to the trunk.
The histopathological hallmark of SCPD is a subcorneal pustule filled with polymorphonuclear leukocytes with only an occasional eosinophil. There is neither acantholysis nor spongiosis. The immunofluorescence studies are usually negative.[3] However, intraepidermal IgA as well as BMZ and blood vessel wall deposits of IgM, IgG and C3 have been reported.[4],[5],[6]
SCPD has been reported in association with various disorders such as IgA and IgG gammopathies,[2] pyoderma gangrenosum,[5],[6] rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, IgG paraproteinemia, CD30+ anaplastic large-cell lymphoma, non small-cell lung carcinoma, apudoma, hyperthyroidism, aplastic anaemia, multiple sclerosis, SLE and Mycoplasma pneumoniae nfection.[3],[7] The exact pathogenesis of SCPD is unknown.
Whether or not the coexistence of these conditions reflects common pathogenic mechanisms remains to be clarified. TNF-a is increased in SCPD; it may be responsible, in part, for the activation of neutrophils that is a feature of this condition.[3],[8]
Thymoma, on the other hand, is known to be associated with various hematological, endocrinal, connective tissue and cutaneous disorders such as mucocutaneous candidiasis, alopecia areata, lichen planus and bullous dermatoses (pemphigus vulgaris, pemphigus erythematosus, pemphigus foliaceous).[9],[10] Ours is a case of spindle cell thymoma associated with SCPD. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of such an association. This new observation enlarges the spectrum of diseases associated with SCPD.
References
1. Sneddon IB, Wilkinson DS. Subcorneal pustular dermatosis. Br J Dermatol 1979;100:61-8. [PUBMED]
2. Wojnarowska F, Eady RA, Burge SE. Bullous eruptions. In : Champion RH, Burton JL, Burns DA, Breathnach SM, editors. Rook/Wilkinson/Ebling Textbook of Dermatology, 6th ed. Oxford-Blackwell Science: London; 1998. p. 1817-97.
3. Weedon D. Skin Pathology, 2nd ed. Churchill-Livingstone: London; 2002. p. 129-91.
4. Sanchez NP, Perry HO, Muller SA, Winkelmann RK. Subcorneal pustular dermatosis and pustular psoriasis: A clinicopathologic correlation. Arch Dermatol 1983;119:715-21. [PUBMED]
5. Venning VA, Ryan TJ. Subcorneal pustular dermatosis followed by pyoderma gangrenosum. Br J Dermatol 1986;115:117-8.
6. Marsden JR, Millard LG. Pyoderma gangrenosum, subcorneal pustular dermatosis and IgA paraproteinaemia. Br J Dermatol 1986;114:125-9. [PUBMED]
7. Honigsmann H, Trautinger F, Wolff K. Subcorneal pustular dermatosis (Sneddon-Wilkinson disease). In : Freedberg IM, Eisen AZ, Wolff K, Austen KF, Goldsmith LA, Katz SI, editors, Fitzpatrick's Dermatology in General Medicine. 6th ed. McGraw-Hill: New York; 2003. p. 625-7.
8. Grob JJ, Mege JL, Capo C, Jancovicci E, Fournerie JR, Bongrand P, et al . Role of tumour necrosis factor -alpha in Sneddon-Wilkinson subcorneal pustular dermatosis. J Am Acad Dermatol 1991;25:944-7.
9. Rosenow EC 3rd, Hurley BT. Disorders of the thymus: A review. Arch Intern Med 1984;144:763-70.
10. Gibson LE, Muller SA. Dermatologic disorders in patients with thymoma. Acta Derm Venereol (Stockh) 1987;67:351-6.
Figures
[Figure - 1], [Figure - 2], [Figure - 3]
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1 Multiple large flaccid purulent blisters in a patient with metastatic breast cancer [Multiple große schlaffe eitrige Blasen bei einer Patientin mit metastasiertem Mammakarzinom]
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Even though Facebook is not a producer of news, 6.5 million UK internet users claim to mainly source their news from the platform. Posts and shares by friends in the user's network, in the context of Facebook's algorithm, determine the order of stories in the personalised News Feed, removing the control of the news agenda that publishers have for their websites
Premium publishers operating a paywall (The Times, The Financial Times) have a lower key approach to Facebook than publishers generating advertising revenue from referral traffic to their websites or from on-platform consumption of Instant Articles. The latter will seek to stimulate social media engagement, optimising stories through attention-grabbing headlines, and installing Facebook’s share and like buttons on their websites
Case studies of the news stories that were prominent on Facebook (measured by likes, comments and shares) in the periods leading up to the Brexit Referendum and General Election 2017 votes respectively demonstrate that newspaper brands (the Express for Brexit, and The Guardian for the General Election) achieved the highest reach on Facebook during these periods, despite being ranked below other news brands (BBC in particular) in terms of traffic to their websites
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Internet Trends H1 2017: Fruits of the mobile revolution
5 September 2017
Access report
With smartphones in the pockets of 3/4 of the UK population, and accounting for over half of all online minutes, the mobile revolution is in its final stages, allowing us to survey its impact
As the number of social media users continues growing, untapped older demographics and Instagram help the Facebook suite of apps grow in the UK, but Snapchat is the social media app of choice for UK teens
News publishers face issues with brand attribution as social media platforms overtake search as the main news aggregators online, while small UK video publishers have become unlikely winners in a global market for soft news, infotainment and gags that dominate social video
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360 and Virtual Reality: a new angle for video entertainment
16 March 2017
Access report
The temporary cool-off in hype around VR following a very buzzy 2016 is not reducing the flow of investment and talent into the industry, notably in video production utilising 360Video technology; setting the stage for the development of a truly new entertainment medium
Fully immersive interactive worlds will continue to be the mainstay of the video games industry, while video entertainment will exist in a multi-track environment, with some genres (news, documentaries , natural history) making 360Video mainstream well before long-form narrative-driven entertainment
2017 will still be a challenging year for consumer device VR roll-out and mass market adoption; Oculus, Google, and Sony continue to seed the market, providing large scale funding and equipment directly to developers and content producers
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This August, the world watched as the Amazon burned. There were 30,901 individual fires that lapped at the largest rainforest in the world. While fires can occur in the dry season due to natural factors, like lightning strikes, it is believed that the widespread fires were started by loggers and farmers to clear land. Brazil's president, Jair Bolsonaro, cites a different cause: the actor Leonardo DiCaprio.
DiCaprio wasn't accused of hanging out in the rainforest with a box of matches, however President Bolsonaro did accuse the actor of funding nonprofit organizations that allegedly set fires to raise donations.
"The NGO people, what did they do? What's easier? Set fire to the bush," President Bolsonaro said on a webcast. "Take photo, film, send it to an NGO, the NGO spreads it out, does a campaign against Brazil, gets in touch with Leonardo DiCaprio and Leonardo DiCaprio donates $500,000 to this NGO. One part went to the people who were setting the fire, right?"
"Leonardo DiCaprio, you are assisting with the burning of the Amazon, that can't be," Bolsonaro continued.
RELATED: Greta Thunberg urges people to turn to nature to combat climate change
The next day, Bolsonaro called out the actor and environmentalist again. "Leonardo DiCaprio is a great guy, isn't he? Donating money to set the Amazon on fire," he said while speaking to supporters outside the Presidential Palace. President Bolsonaro did not offer proof to back up his claims.
Bolsonaro's claims came days after the government raided a nonprofit associated with fire prevention efforts and arrested four volunteer firemen who allegedly started fires to get images for social media that could be used to solicit donations. Burning the largest rainforest in the world isn't exactly something you do for the 'Gram.
DiCaprio says he has nothing to do with the organizations under attack. "At this time of crisis for the Amazon, I support the people of Brazil working to save their natural and cultural heritage. They are an amazing, moving and humbling example of the commitment and passion needed to save the environment," DiCaprio wrote on Instagram.
"The future of these irreplaceable ecosystems is at stake and I am proud to stand with the groups protecting them. While worthy of support, we did not fund the organizations targeted," he continued.
See on Instagram
RELATED: Judi Dench adopts 3 orangutans in a campaign to save rainforests from destruction
The World Wildlife Fund, the organization in question, denies receiving donations from DiCaprio. They also say they never received photographs from the volunteer firefighters.
DiCaprio's environmental organization, Earth Alliance, pledged $5 million to help protect the Amazon. DiCaprio also spoke out against deforestation of the Amazon and the Amazon fires.
Deforestation in the Amazon reached its highest rate in more than a decade, increasing by 30% between August 2018 and July 2019. The increase in deforestation has been linked to Bolsonaro, who took office in October 2018. Instead of looking at who the finger is pointing at, maybe we should be looking at who is pointing the finger?
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This article is good. It can still be slightly improved, either by adding content, restructuring the page, or updating its content.
This article discusses the prohibition of cooking on Shabbat and its practical ramifications. A very closely related topic is Permissible ways to heat up food on Shabbat which includes halachot related to the covered fire (Blech), a pot on top of another pot, Kedierah Blech, Electric Hotplate, and more. Also, for the topic of cooking on Yom Tov, please see the Cooking on Yom Tov page.
Contents
1 General Guidelines of Bishul
1.1 Cooking Without a Fire
1.2 Ein Bishul Achar Bishul
1.2.1 Definition of Liquids
1.3 Yesh Bishul Achar Afiya
1.4 Examples of Bishul with non-foods
2 Cooking food on Shabbat
3 Hastening the Cooking Process
4 Cooking in an oven
5 Cooking on a stove
6 Cooking in a Kli Rishon
6.1 Fully cooked liquids
6.2 Fully cooked solids
6.3 Non-fully cooked food or liquid
6.4 Transferring food from one pot to another
7 Pouring from a Kli Rishon
7.1 Mixing hot and cold water
8 Cooking in a Kli Sheni
8.1 Which foods may be placed in a Kli Sheni?
8.2 Fully cooked liquid
8.3 Pouring from a Kli Sheni
8.4 Appearing Like Cooking
9 Cooking in a Kli Shelishi
10 Stirring hot food
10.1 Not fully cooked food
10.2 Fully cooked food
10.3 Food not on the fire
10.4 Putting the Ladle Back in the Soup or Chullent
11 Saving a Burning Cholent
12 Hot Tap Water
13 Making Tea on Shabbat
13.1 Lemon in Tea
13.2 Drying out the Cup
13.3 Adding Sugar
14 Making Coffee on Shabbat
15 Benefiting from Food Cooked on Shabbat
16 Links
17 Sources
General Guidelines of Bishul
The prohibition of Bishul, cooking on Shabbat, is a general classification which includes heating up any substance, food or non-food, until a property of the substance changes.[1]
The methods by which cooking can be violated include cooking, baking, roasting, broiling, frying, and microwaving.[2] Similarly, Bishul is violated by cooking with any heating element that reaches 113 degrees Fahrenheit including kerosene, gas or electric stove, hotplate, steamer, gas or electric oven.[3]
Cooking Without a Fire
There is a machloket in the achronim if bishul by definition must be done with a fire.[4]
Ein Bishul Achar Bishul
There is a rule that once something is cooked it cannot be halachically cooked any further. There is a debate among the Rishonim concerning the point at which a food is considered to be “cooked” in this sense. The halacha is that one may only recook an item that was fully cooked.[5]
Even though for food that was fully cooked there is no violation of bishul when recooking it (even though there can be an issue of Hachzara), for liquids there is a violation of bishul when recooking it.[6]
Some say that it is permitted to ask a non-Jew to reheat a liquid on Shabbat in a way that isn't a problem of Hachzara. Sephardim rely on this opinion and Ashkenazim generally don't.[7]
Definition of Liquids
Sephardim hold that as long as majority of the volume of the food is solid and a minority is liquid it is classified as a solid. If the majority is a liquid it is classified as a liquid.[8]
Ashkenazim are more strict. Some poskim hold that any accumulation of liquid is considered liquid. A moist food with a drop of liquid on it is still considered solid.[9] However, other poskim define a solid by a food that is edible even when cold. A liquid is something that is only edible when heated up.[10]
For example, there is a dispute whether ketchup is considered a solid or liquid since it pours (first opinion), on the other hand it is edible cold and so it is considered a solid (second opinion).[11]
Soupy cholent is considered a liquid and dry cholent is considered a solid.[12]
Yesh Bishul Achar Afiya
A fully baked (dry heat), roasted, or fried food may not be cooked (liquid heat). According to Ashkenazim one may not cook the baked, roasted or fried food in a Kli Rishon or Kli Sheni.[13]
According to Ashkenazim, it’s forbidden to put any baked item such as croutons, soup nuts, challah, or matzah in hot soup that was poured directly from the pot. However it is permitted to place a baked food in soup that’s was poured into a bowl through a ladle that wasn’t left in the soup for any length of time.[14]
According to Ashkenazim, it is forbidden to put a cooked or boiled food such as chicken on top of a blech.[15]
Examples of Bishul with non-foods
It's forbidden to melt off wax droplets using fire or hot water.[16]
It's forbidden to heat a metal until it's red hot.[17] See also Electricity on Shabbat.
It's forbidden to bake bricks or earthenware in a kiln.[18]
Cooking food on Shabbat
Because the most practical cases of Bishul apply to food, this is the category we will deal with extensively.
Just in order to clarify, but not for practical ramifications, the biblical prohibition is violated for solids, when one has cooked it for a third of the time usually needed to cook, and for liquids, when one heats it up to 110 degrees Fahrenheit. However, one can also violate the biblical prohibition of Bishul by continuing to cook the food until it’s fully cooked. (For more details about the limitations of biblical prohibition, see the footnote).[19]
Practically speaking, it is forbidden to put any food on the fire or into a pot which is on the fire on Shabbat, whether the food is liquid or solid, cold or hot, cooked or raw.[20] (See further for practically how one can reheat food on Shabbat).
Another biblical prohibition is hastening the cooking process.[21] The practical ramifications of this will be discussed in the Hastening the cooking process section below.
If one notices that one put a food on the fire and it hasn’t completely cooked, one must remove it before it becomes fully cooked in order to avoid further violation of Shabbat.[22]
Hastening the Cooking Process
It is forbidden to accelerate the cooking of a food which is on the fire.[23]
For example, not fully cooked chulent may not be moved from one area on the blech to another area which is closer to the fire.[24] One may also not remove chulent from the pot on Friday night if the chulent isn’t fully cooked because doing so will hasten the cooking for the rest of the pot.[25]
Similarly, if one turned on one's water urn right before Shabbat and the water isn't yet boiling, one may not take out water because in doing so one will hasten the cooking of the rest of the water remaining in the urn.[26]
It is forbidden to cover a pot, even if it is on the blech, as long as the food isn’t fully cooked because covering it hastens the cooking process. Thus, one must beware not to open the cover of any pot on the blech, because one will not be permitted to return it to the pot.[27]
Another important ramification of this halacha is stirring food on the fire. See the relevant halachot below.
Cooking in an oven
It’s forbidden to return food to the oven even if it’s cooked and warm.[28]
If there’s a possibility that the food isn’t fully cooked, if the oven door is opened or opened by itself, it’s forbidden to close the oven door, unless the food is removed. However, fully cooked food that was in the oven from before Shabbat may remain there when/if the oven door is opened.[29]
It’s forbidden to use an oven which is thermostatically controlled since opening or closing the door will likely cause the flame to be increased.[30]
Cooking on a stove
It’s forbidden to place anything on an electric stove unless the heat source is covered.[31]
Before Shabbat, its permissible to leave cooked food on a covered electric stove which is set on a timer to begin operating on Shabbat.[32] In such a case, one may not place food on the covered stove on Shabbat even before it began operating.[33]
If the flame on the stove goes out and the gas is escaping, it’s permissible to turn off the tap. Preferably, this should be done with a variation (such as using the back of one’s hand, or one’s elbow).[34]
Cooking in a Kli Rishon
It’s forbidden to put any food, liquid or solid, cooked or non-cooked, hot or cold, in a pot on the fire (Kli Rishon) even if one intends to remove it right away.[35]
A Kli Rishon is a pot that was in contact with a fire or heat source. It continues to have the status of Kli Rishon if removed from the fire as long as it is 113 degrees.[36]
A ladle can be considered a Kli Rishon if it was inserted in a hot Kli Rishon, and certainly if it was left in there for some time.[37] Sephardim consider it a Kli Sheni for the liquids that pour out of it to be considered iruy kli sheni that doesn't cook.[38]
In general, no uncooked food, solid or liquid, may be placed in a Kli Rishon even if the food is hot and the Kli Rishon is off the fire.[39]
One may not put down a hot pot on top of a wet counter top because doing so will heat up the water droplets.[40]
Fully cooked liquids
According to Ashkenazim, it’s permitted to place a fully cooked liquid in a Kli Rishon that’s off the fire as long as the liquid is still warm (it hasn’t completely cooled since being heated).[41]
According to Sephardim, it’s permissible to pour fully cooked hot liquid into a Kli Rishon only if the liquid is still 113 degrees.[42]
Fully cooked liquid which has cooled (since it was heated originally while cooking) even if it became warm after it was cooked may not be reheated in a Kli Rishon and the contents of a Kli Rishon may not be poured into in.[43]
Fully cooked solids
A fully cooked solid even if it’s cold may be placed in a Kli Rishon if the pot is not on the fire.[44]
Non-fully cooked food or liquid
It’s forbidden to put any non-fully cooked food, liquid or solid, in a Kli Rishon even if it’s off the fire [45] except for ox meat (because it requires intense heat to be cooked and it won’t cook in a Kli Rishon off the fire).[46]
Course salt according to many authorities may be placed in a Kli Rishon which was removed from the fire because it doesn’t cook in a Kli Rishon, however, table salt can be placed in a Kli Rishon because it is cooked in the processing. It’s forbidden to put any uncooked solids or liquids into a Kli Rishon on the fire.[47]
It’s permissible to place a baby bottle of milk in a Kli Rishon which is off the fire and there’s a lot of milk in the bottle that it’s impossible that the milk will reach 113 degrees (if left in the Kli Rishon).[48]
It’s permissible to pour a large amount of cold water into hot water in a Kli Rishon which is off the fire as long as the mixture thereby becomes less than 113 degrees and that the pouring is done in one swift action.[49]
Transferring food from one pot to another
It’s permissible to transfer food from one pot on the fire to another pot that’s on a covered fire if the food in both pots are fully cooked.[50]
If one’s fully cooked food is drying out one may pour boiling water from an urn into a pot that’s on the fire. If that’s not possible it’s permitted to take water with a ladle or spoon and pour it into the pot.[51]
It’s permissible to separate fully cooked in one pot on the fire into two pots as long as the empty one was clean and dry and one complies with the rules of chazara. [52]
Pouring from a Kli Rishon
Hot liquid poured from a Kli Rishon cooks to the same extent as a Kli Rishon on the outer layer of the substance it hits.[53]
It’s forbidden to pour from a Kli Rishon onto cold liquid or non-fully cooked solids.[54]
According to Sephardim, it’s forbidden to pour water from a boiling pot to another pot that’s on the fire.[55] However, according to Ashkenazim it’s permissible.[56]
If one found one’s chulent burning in the morning, according to Sephardim it’s forbidden to pour boiling water into the crock pot and would only be permissible if one first transferred the chulent into a Kli Sheni and then poured in the boiling water.[57] See #Saving_a_Burning_Cholent for details and solutions.
It’s permissible to pour from a Kli Rishon onto a baby bottle filled with milk (even if it’s cold and uncooked) since the pouring only cooks the outer layer and in this case it’s the bottle (which doesn’t cook at this temperature), however, one should be careful that the bottle isn’t completely covered by the hot water.[58]
It’s forbidden to pour hot water from a Kli Rishon onto regular sugar, saccharin, instant coffee, soup powder, instant cocoa, or uncooked tea leaves.[59]
Mixing hot and cold water
It’s permissible to pour hot liquid from a Kli Rishon onto cold liquid if the remaining mixture will remain cool (less than 110 degrees). However it’s forbidden to pour a lot of hot liquid from a Kli Rishon onto a little cold liquid since the remaining mixture will be hot (greater than 110 degrees).[60]
It’s permissible to pour from a Kli Rishon (even if it’s on the fire) onto fully cooked solids or fully cooked liquids which are still slightly warm, according to Ashkenazim.[61]
Therefore, it’s permissible to pour from an urn onto tea essence which is still warm.[62]
Cooking in a Kli Sheni
A Kli Sheni is a vessel into which a hot liquid or solid was poured.[63]
There is disagreement amongst the poskim as to which types of food fall into the category of Kalei Bishul, foods for which it is forbidden to pour from kli sheni onto them.[64]
It’s forbidden to put any non-cooked food into a Kli Sheni which has the temperature of 113 degrees or greater [65] except a few items including water, olive oil, ginger, cinnamon, ox-meat, [66] and milk.[67]
Certain foods (such as potatoes, meat, kugel, or whole beans) store heat and should be treated as a Kli Rishon as long as it’s 113 degrees even if transferred to a Kli Sheni or Shelishi.[68] For example, one shouldn’t put butter or seasoning on a hot (113 degree) potato or piece of meat.[69] An exception to the rule, is that salt and some say even ketchup may be placed on the hot foods.[70]
Which foods may be placed in a Kli Sheni?
Two exceptions to the rule of placing liquids in a Kli Sheni are oil and water which may be placed in a Kli Sheni.[71]
It’s permitted to place sugar, saccharin, instant coffee, soup powder, milk powder, instant cocoa, table salt, or cooking salt into a Kli Sheni as they have been cooked in the manufacturing process.[72]
It’s forbidden to place tea leaves or ordinary cocoa in a Kli Sheni.[73]
A fully baked (dry heat), roasted, or fried food may not be cooked (liquid heat). According to Ashkenazim one may not cook the baked, roasted or fried food in a Kli Rishon or Kli Sheni.[74]
Fully cooked liquid
Fully cooked liquid (whether it is warm or cold) may be placed in a Kli Sheni for example, tea essence, and there is what to rely on regarding pasteurized milk.[75]
Pouring from a Kli Sheni
One may pour from a Kli Sheni onto fully cooked liquid (whether it is warm or cold) [76]
One should not pour hot water (which has the temperature of 113 degrees) from a Kli Sheni onto a raw egg, non-boiled tea leaves, or herring.[77]
Appearing Like Cooking
According to Ashkenazim, there is a rabbinic prohibition to place uncooked foods into a kli sheni because it looks like cooking (Heb. מחזי כמבשל; trans. mechzei kemevashel). However, this doesn't apply to spices because they are just meant to enhance the flavor of the food and not the actual food. [This is aside from the issue of cooking foods in a uncooked foods in a kli sheni as they might be easily cooked (Heb. קלי הבישול; trans. kali habishul).][78] Sephardim are lenient.[79]
Cooking in a Kli Shelishi
Some poskim permit making tea in a Kli Shelishi, while others forbid it. According to those who forbid, one should make tea essence before Shabbat and pour it into hot water of a Kli Sheni on Shabbat.[80]
Some say there’s an issue of putting tea leaves in a kli rishon on Shabbat even if they were put in boiling water before Shabbat. However, if the leaves were totally cooked there’s no issue of putting them in a kli rishon on Shabbat.[81]
A fully baked (dry heat), roasted, or fried food may be cooked (liquid heat) in a Kli Shelishi. Therefore, if soup was ladled from a pot into a bowl it’s permissible to place bread in the bowl.[82]
Stirring hot food
Not fully cooked food
It’s forbidden (Deoritta Bishul) to stir hot food that isn’t fully cooked when it’s on the fire or removed from the fire as long as it’s 113 degrees in a Kli Rishon.[83]
There's no prohibition of stirring a clear liquid such as chicken soup.[84]
One can’t even take out a serving utensil from a Kli Rishon (even off the fire), unless the food is cold (not at the level of 113 degrees).[85]
Fully cooked food
Mixing fully cooked food which is on the fire is forbidden.[86]
Ashkenazim are strict and do not even take a serving spoon out of a pot of fully cooked food (that’s 113 degrees) while it’s on the fire.[87] However, Sephardim hold it’s permitted even if in the act one turns the food that was on top of the pot to be moved to the bottom closer to the fire.[88]
Food not on the fire
If the fully cooked food is off the fire, one can completely mix the food.[89] However, some are strict unless there's a need.[90]
It is permitted to put a spoon or ladle inside a pot, which is off the fire, as long as one is careful that the spoon or ladle is free from any remnants of water or uncooked food.[91]
Putting the Ladle Back in the Soup or Chullent
It is permitted to use a ladle to serve soup even though placing the ladle back in the pot with droplets on it is going to cook those drops.[92]
Saving a Burning Cholent
If one noticed a cholent that is burning or dried up on Shabbat morning, there are a several solutions:
According to Ashkenazim, one could bring the cholent pot under the spigot of the urn or bring the urn to the cholent pot and pour hot water directly into the cholent. One should be careful to pour in the water slowly so that it doesn't stir its contents. Also, for reasons of kashrut one should make sure that the steam isn't so close to the spigot of the urn.[93] If one is taking the cholent pot to the urn one should make sure that the cholent pot can be returned to a covered fire, such as a blech or a crock pot that is lined with tin foil and the insert is raised up with tin foil or marbles.[94]
According to Ashkenazim, if necessary, it is permitted to take a cup, fill it from the hot water urn and immediately pour it into the cholent put. It isn't considered cooking since the water was already boiling and it isn't an issue of hachzara since it was in one's hand with the intention to be put into another food on the fire. One should be careful to pour in the water slowly so that it doesn't stir its contents.[95]
According to Sephardim all of the above options are forbidden.[96] Instead they should use the following methods:
An alternative is to leave a bag of water in the cholent pot from before Shabbat and if one notices that the cholent is burning one can pop that bag on Shabbat.[97]
Another option is not to add any water but just move it to a heating source that is cooler. For example, one could pick up the cholent from the cholent pot and then put it on a hot plate or on top of an inverted pan on top of a hot plate.[98]
Some say that an alternative is to leave a metal ladle in the hot water urn for a while until it becomes very hot, specifically Yad Soledet Bo. Then one can ladle out some water from the urn and place it gently into the cholent pot.[99]
Certainly one may not put in tap water or even cooked water that cooled down in a cholent that is burning.[100]
Hot Tap Water
Turning on the hot tap water is prohibited on Shabbat.[101] It’s forbidden to use the hot water even if one turns off the hot water heater before Shabbat.[102]
In cases of extreme need there may be a basis for permitting using hot tap water in a multi-family home, however, a Rav must be consulted before using this leniency.[103]
One may leave on a hot water faucet from before Shabbat. One may not turn off a hot water tap if the tap has been running to the point that the water in the boiler is colder than Yad Soldet Bo (after 15-20 minutes), however if the faucet has only been running for a short time or it’s only open slightly and the water is still Yad Soldet Bo, then it’s permissible it turn it off.[104] Some say that it is forbidden to turn off in all circumstances.[105]
Even when it’s permissible to turn on the hot water tap or if one left on the hot water tap from before Shabbat other issues including:
make sure that one does not use the hot and cold water at the same time in one faucet and
make sure one doesn’t pour directly onto moist or wet dishes rather one should fill a basin and then put in one’s wet dishes or preferably pour the hot water into a container and from there into a basin and then put inside it the wet dishes.[106]
See also a related topic, Showering on Shabbat.
Making Tea on Shabbat
According to many poskim tea leaves are considered foods which cook easily and could cook in a Kli Sheni and therefore it's forbidden to put a tea bag in a cup and pour upon it boiling water from the urn, nor may the tea bag be put in a cup in which water was poured from an urn.[107]
The preferable way of making tea on Shabbat is to use instant tea which may be placed in a Kli Sheni (a cup with water which was poured from an urn) and better yet in a Kli Shelishi (a cup with water which was poured from a Kli Sheni).[108]
Another preferable method is to prepare "tea essence" by cooking a tea bag before Shabbat, saving the flavored liquid, and putting it into a Kli Sheni (a cup with hot water which was poured from an urn).[109] Some question this practice when the tea essence is prepared before Shabbat in a kli sheni which is what is commonly done.[110] When making tea essence the bags should be removed before Shabbat to avoid the issue of Borer. If one didn't one can pour off tea essence as long as the liquid in the tea covers the bags of tea.[111]
Lastly, if one didn't prepare tea essence before Shabbat some poskim are lenient to make tea using a Kli Shelishi by pouring boiling water from an urn to a cup (Kli Sheni) and from that cup to another cup (Kli Shelishi) and putting the tea bag in the Kli Shelishi.[112]
Lemon in Tea
According to many poskim, one should not place a sliced lemon in a cup of tea because of the issue of cooking on Shabbat.[113] According to others, one may pour from a kli sheni onto lemon juice.[114]
Drying out the Cup
It is permitted to pour hot water from a kli rishon onto cold droplets in a cup that is still wet. One should first shake it off to remove as much moisture as possible. Someone who is careful to dry it first will be blessed.[115]
Adding Sugar
Since sugar is already cooked one could even put the sugar in the cup before pouring hot water from the urn on top of it (Iruy Kli Rishon) and certainly add it to a cup of hot tea that was already poured (Kli Sheni).[116]
Making Coffee on Shabbat
It is permitted to make instant coffee and then to add milk and sugar to a Kli Sheni since it was cooked in its production.[117] It is a stringency to make instant coffee in a Kli Shelishi.[118]
Making Starbucks VIA coffee is permitted specifically in a kli shelishi and not a kli rishon or kli sheni since it includes roasted kernels that aren't pre-cooked.[119]
It is forbidden to use a French press on Shabbat. However, it is permitted to use a coffee filter on Shabbat, by placing the coffee grinds on the filter, and pouring the water through them. This is only true of the issue of Borer, however, it is forbidden to cook on Shabbat and so it would only be permitted to use a coffee if the water being used is a Kli Shelishi (according to those who allow using a Kli Shelishi).[120]
On Yom Tov it is permitted to use a French press or a coffee filter to make coffee.[121]
Benefiting from Food Cooked on Shabbat
If a person intentionally cooked on Shabbat the food is forbidden to benefit from forever for that person. For everyone else it is forbidden until the end of Shabbat.[122] Even for the people he cooked for are considered like others and it is permitted after Shabbat.[123]
If a person unintentionally cooked on Shabbat the food is forbidden to benefit from for that Shabbat for everyone but after Shabbat it is permitted for everyone.[124] In extenuating circumstances, such as if there's not going to be other hot food for Shabbat, Ashkenazim can rely on the opinions that permit the food altogether on Shabbat when cooked unintentionally.[125]
If water was added to a pot of food that was cooking on Shabbat even though it was a violation of Shabbat the food is permitted as long as the original food was more than the water added. Also, if the food would have burnt without the water it is forbidden even after the fact.[126]
If a person covered a pot in which the food wasn't cooked the food is forbidden even after the fact.[127]
Links
Introduction to Bishul by Rabbi Howard Jachter
Hilchot Bishul by Rav Eliezer Melamed
Sources
↑ The Mishna (Shabbat 73a) says baking bread is one of the 39 melachot. The Gemara (74b) includes cooking dyes as a violation of the melacha as well. This is codified as halacha by Rambam (Shabbat 9:1) and Tur 318:1. 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 553) defines this prohibition precisely as heating up any substance, food or non-food, until a property of the substance changes.
Rashi Shabbos 74b s.v. d’mirafei rafi writes that bishul occurs when the object is softened, while Rambam Shabbos 9:6 maintains that bishul can be done either by softening or hardening. Iglei Tal Bishul 9:6 infers from Rambam Shabbos 9:6 that the Av of bishul is only when the change to the object is permanent (such as baking a cake), but if the change will be undone (such as heating up metal that will eventually cool back down) then it is only a toldah of bishul.
↑ *Rambam (Shabbat 9:5) counts both roasting and frying as Bishul. Iglei Tal (Ofeh 1:1) explains that Rambam is counting ways to violate the Av in the first five Halachot of the chapter and from there and on he counts Toldot. However Lechem Mishna (Shabbat 8:12) says that since there’s no Nafka Minah between an Av and Toldah the Rambam wasn’t specific about differentiating them. Thus, Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:1 rules that cooking by either of these methods are forbidden deoraitta. For further clarification, Shabbos Kitchen (p. 1) includes baking, roasting, broiling, and frying.
Igrot Moshe 3:52 writes that cooking with a microwave is also a biblical prohibition of Bishul. 39 Melachos (Rav Ribiat; pg 589) and Shabbos Kitchen (Rabbi Simcha Bunim Cohen; pg 2) agree.
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:1 and 1:4 writes that Bishul is violated with any heating element that reaches 113 degrees Fahrenheit including kerosene, gas or electric stove, hotplate, steamer, gas or electric oven. Shabbos Kitchen (p. 2) agrees. 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 568) writes that cooking in a Kli Rishon, whether it is on or off the fire, where the food will reach 110 degrees is a violation of Bishul Deoritta.
↑ The Gemara Shabbos 39a records a machlokes about cooking in the sun (bishul b’chama). Rabbi Yose maintains that one is chayav for cooking in the sun (just like cooking on a fire), while the Chachamim are of the opinion that bishul b’chama is patur. Rashi Shabbos 39a s.v d’shari explains the opinion of the Chachamim as follows: bishul b’chama is patur because it is not the normal way to cook. R’ Moshe Feinstein Vol. 3, Responsa 52 extrapolates from this Rashi that had bishul b’chama been a normal way of cooking, it would be no different from cooking on a fire. In other words, bishul min hatorah can be accomplished even without an actual fire and this is why cooking in a microwave oven is considered bishul d’oraysa (since it is normal to cook in a microwave oven). However, R’ Shlomo Zalman Shemiras Shabbos 1 note 12 argues that Rashi meant that, by definition, cooking with anything other than a real fire (such as the sun or a microwave oven) is not bishul min hatorah.
↑ *Rashba Shabbos 39a s.v. "kol sheba bichamin milifnei hashabbos shorin oso” maintains that once a food has been cooked to the level of ma’achal ben derusai it cannot be cooked any further. However, Rambam Shabbos 9:3 argues that bishul no longer applies only when the food is completely cooked and further cooking will only worsen the quality of the food (mitztamek vera lo). Shulchan Aruch O”C 318:4 holds like the Rambam, but the Biur Halacha S.v “afilu biodo roseach” writes that if the maachal ben drusai food was returned to a covered fire then b’dieved one can rely on the Rashba and eat it.
There is a further debate among the Rishonim regarding what exactly this degree of “cooked” is. Rashi (Shabbos 20a s.v. ben drusai) writes that it is a third cooked, while Rambam (Shabbos 9:5) holds that it is half cooked. Shulchan Aruch (254:2) paskens like Rambam, but Mishnah Brurah (253:38 and 43) writes that b’dieved we can rely on Rashi.
↑ The Rambam Shabbat 9:3, Rashba Shabbat 40b s.v. meyvee, and Ran Shabbat 19a s.v. tanu (as explained by Bet Yosef 318:4) holds that Ein Bishul Achar Bishul applies to solids and liquids, but the Rosh Shabbat 3:11 argues that it only applies to solids and reheating liquids would be Bishul. The Shulchan Aruch is strict for the Rosh. Even though the Rama theoretically holds like the Rashba in practice he is only lenient if the liquid was originally hot on Shabbat and didn't cool down completely.
The Chazon Ish OC 50:9 holds that for water there's no dispute and everyone agrees that there's a biblical violation of Bishul to reheat it since after it was heated up and cooled down there's no lasting effect of the original cooking on the water. He applies the same logic to reheating metal multiple times in regards to Electricity on Shabbat.
↑ Birkei Yosef (Shiurei Bracha 318:1) quotes the Shaar Aryeh and Rav Volli who hold that it is permited to ask a non-Jew to heat up pre-cooked liquids on Shabbat since it is a dispute in the rishonim if it is permitted. Kaf HaChayim on Shulchan Arukh, Orach Chayim 318:51:1 cites the Birkei Yosef. The Rama 253:5 quotes the Rashba who seems to forbid this even after the fact. Biur Halacha 253:5 s.v. lhachem cites this Birkei Yosef and questions whether we should rely upon it and concludes that after the fact it is permitted. Rav Yitzchak Yosef (Motzei Shabbat Lech Lecha 5781, min 15) ruled like the Birkei Yosef and answered how it fits with the Rashba and Rama. The Rashba in fact only forbade asking a non-Jew to light a fire and then reheat a liquid.
↑ Yechava Daat 2:45, Yabia Omer OC 6:48:16, Minchat Cohen Shabbat 2:2, Kaf Hachaim 318:62, Pri Megadim E"A 253:32
↑ 39 Melachos (Rabbi Ribiat v. 2 p. 594) writes that any accumulation of liquid on a food is considered a liquid. His proof is Rav Moshe (Igrot Moshe 4:74:7) and Mishna Brurah 318:32 who imply that any liquid is considered a liquid. Nonetheless, he learns from the Mishna Brurah that moist food is still considered a solid. Additionally a drop of liquid on a food is considered a solid.
↑ Orchot Shabbat p. 14 as explained by Rav Mordechai Willig in The Laws of Cooking and Warming Food on Shabbat p. 27
↑ Rav Mordechai Willig in The Laws of Cooking and Warming Food on Shabbat p. 27 explains the dispute between Rav Moshe Feinstein (Igrot Moshe 4:74:5) and Rav Shlomo Zalman and Rav Elyashiv (Orchot Shabbat p. 14) in this manner. Rav Moshe holds it is a liquid since it pours, while the other poskim assume it is a solid since it is edible cold. Rav Willig accepts the definition of the other poskim.
↑ 39 Melachos v. 2 p. 645
↑ Shulchan Aruch O.C. 318:5 cites two opinions and Rama writes that the Minhag is to be strict even in a Kli Sheni. Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:59 holds like the Rama that it’s forbidden even in a Kli Sheni.
The Yereyim 274 s.v. vkol dvar writes that it is forbidden to bake or roast anything which was cooked with liquids before Shabbat. Conversely it is forbidden to cook something in liquids which was baked or roasted before Shabbat. In terms of bishul, one could recook something that was cooked (aside from the issue of hachzara). His proofs are Pesachim 41a and Yevamot 40a. Ravyah (Shabbat ch. 197) who heard this idea directly from his teacher the Yereyim disputes his point. The Yereyim wasn't only strict not to recook something baked in a kli rishon but also would forbid putting it in a kli sheni. His approach is that we're not sure which foods cook easily and could cook in a kli sheni. Tur 318:5 argues with the Yereyim's stringency about a kli sheni. Bet Yosef 318:5 likes the point of the Ravyah and in fact thinks that the Tosfot Pesachim 41a s.v. aval is a further prove against the Yereyim. The Bet Yosef cites the Smak who accepts the Yereyim and the Mordechai who cites the dispute.
How does the Yereyim address the Gemara Brachot 38b, which indicates that cooking does not undo baking, which is the Ravyah's question? Taz 318:6 answers that matzah and brachot doesn't depend on a small change in taste, however, on Shabbat it is forbidden to bake something cooked or vice versa since that changes its taste. Eglei Tal Ofeh 15:2 explains that the Yereyim could explain the Gemara Brachot 38b in line with Tosfot Pesachim 41a s.v. aval, Tosfot Harosh Brachot 38b s.v. ad, and Rabbenu Yonah (Brachot 27a s.v. mishum) that the cooked matzah is like matzah ashira. [Additionally, it is possible to suggest that he read the gemara Brachot 38b like the approach of the Maharam Chalavah Pesachim 41a s.v. yotzin, Rash Challah 1:5, and Bahag (cited by Tosfot Harosh Brachot 38b). Orot Hashabbat v. 1 p. 77 suggests that the Yereyim hold of this approach and answers the Tosfot Harosh's question with the opinion of Rabbenu Tam in Tosfot Pesachim 41a s.v. aval.]
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:59 holds like the Rama that it’s forbidden even in a Kli Sheni, however he considers the soup in the bowl a Kli Shishi if the soup was taken through a ladle that wasn’t left in the soup for any length of time. This is also codified in Hilchot Shabbat pg 263 by Rabbi Shimon Eider and Shabbos Kitchen pg 38 by Rabbi Simcha Bunim Cohen. Rav Hershel Schachter (The Laws of Cooking and Warming Food on Shabbat p. 179) writes that it is permitted to put challah in soup that was served with a ladle and adds no further conditions.
↑ Mishna Brurah 318:41 and Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:60 writes that since the chicken or cooked food was cooked originally with wet-heat and now it’s being cooked through dry heat like roasting it’s forbidden to heat up the food.
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 553)
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 553)
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 553)
↑ *What does the biblical prohibition of Bishul entail?
For non-foods, 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 553) writes that the biblical prohibition is only violated when a property of the substance is changed.
For solid food, 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 553) writes that the biblical prohibition is only violated when the food is changed from being inedible to edible. There is a dispute in the Rishonim about what is considered a minimal standard of edible for which it will be considered a violation of Bishul deoraitta. Rashi Shabbat 20a s.v. Ben Dursai holds that Bishul Deoritta is violated when it reaches half of it's cooking, while the Rambam Shabbat 9:5 holds that once it's reached a third of it's cooking one has violated Bishul Doeritta. Mishna Brurah 253:38 rules like the Rambam. Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:5 and Shabbos Kitchen (p. 3) agree. 39 Melachos (vol 2, pg 555) and Shabbos Kitchen (p. 3) explain that a third and a half refer to the time that the food would take to cook fully.
Even if a food is already minimally edible, there is a further violation of Bishul when furthering the cooking. S”A 318:4 rules that cooking a food, which is already edible, by any amount which makes it more cooked is a violation of Bishul, unless the food is fully cooked. Beiur Halacha s.v. Afliu, Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:5, Shabbos Kitchen (p. 3) agree.
Regarding liquids, S”A 318:14 rules that the biblical violation of Bishul is violated when the liquid is heated up to Yad Soledet Bo. Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:5 defines Yad Soledet Bo, in matters in which one has to be strict to avoid any violation, as 113 degrees Fahrenheit. Igrot Moshe 4:74:3, however, rules that one should be strict to consider Yad Soledet Bo as 110 degrees. Shabbos Kitchen (p. 5) and 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 558) agree. Chazon Ovadia Shabbat Part 4: page 371 rules that yad soledet bo is only 104 degrees Farenheit
Even if a liquid is Yad Soledet Bo, most poskim hold that there is a biblical violation of Bishul if one continues to heat it until it reaches its boiling point. Sh"t Igrot Moshe 4:74(3) writes that it's sufficient to assume that once a liquid is 160 degrees heating it further it's permissible to heat it further. However, Otzrot Shabbat in name of Rav Elayshiv, Sh"t Shevet HaLevi 7:42(3), and Minchat Yitzchak 10:28 hold it must reach it's boiling point before being allowed to heat it further. Shabbos Kitchen (p. 3) writes that most poskim consider this to be a Torah prohibition.
What is defined as a liquid? Shabbos Kitchen (p. 11) writes that only something which is completely solid such as meat, chicken, or kugel is considered solid. Igrot Moshe 4:74:7 writes that one should not rely on the Minchat Kohen and the Pri Megadim’s opinion isn’t clear.
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:12 rules that it is forbidden to put any food on the fire or into a pot which is on the fire on Shabbat, whether the food is liquid or solid, cold or hot, cooked or raw.
This ruling is partially based on a Rabbinic prohibition to place a solid food in an area where it could become cooked or place a liquid where it could become Yad Soledet Bo. This Rabbinic prohibition is codified in S”A 318:14 and 17.
↑ Rambam 9:4. This is codified as halacha in Shulchan Aruch 254:4 in regards to the halacha of stirring food on the fire. Rabbi Akiva Eiger 318:1, 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 559), and Shabbos Kitchen (p. 7) also quote this as the halacha.
↑ Rambam 9:5, 39 Melachos (vol 2, pg 554)
↑ Rambam 9:4. This is codified as halacha in Shulchan Aruch O.C. 254:4 in regards to the halacha of stirring food on the fire. Rabbi Akiva Eiger 318:1, 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 559), and Shabbos Kitchen (p. 7) also quote this as the halacha.
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 554), Shabbos Kitchen (p. 7)
↑ Shabbos Kitchen (p. 8)
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 559), Shabbos Kitchen (p. 8). See, however, Minchat Yitzchak 3:137.
↑ Shulchan Aruch O.C. 257:4, Shabbos Kitchen (p. 9). Menuchat Ahava 2:1:13 p. 54 writes that covering an uncooked pot is only rabbinic cooking since it is grama. His proof is Sanhedrin 76b and Shulchan Aruch 257:5. However, he admits that he is in disagreement with the Meiri Shabbat 73b and Bartenura 7:2, though he rules against them. The Or Letzion 2:30:14 in the footnote seems to agree with the Menuchat Ahava. However, Yalkut Yosef (Otzr Dinim Lisha pp. 629-632) disagrees strongly disagrees because by definition covering a pot is part of the process of cooking and cooking is defined as something that otherwise would be grama.
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:17
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:17. Shabbos Kitchen (p. 9) explains that it is forbidden to close the oven door with not fully cooked food inside because it hastens the cooking process. See also Rama 259:7.
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:29
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:24
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:26
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:26
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:28
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:12, 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 572)
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:2, 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 572)
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:48
↑ Chazon Ovadia v. 4 p. 362
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:6
↑ Rabbi Mansour on Dailyhalacha.com
↑ Mishna Brurah 318:24 bringing the Rama 318:15 even in the case of a Kli Rishon, Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata. 1:7,15, Shabbos Kitchen (pg 41-3)
↑ S”A 318:4 writes that if the liquid has cooled it may not be poured into a kli rishon. Mishna Brurah 318:24 explains that it must be Yad Soldet Bo according to S”A in order to pour it into a kli rishon.
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata. 1:8(1), 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 563)
↑ Shulchan Aruch O.C. 318:4, Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:10, 15, Shabbos Kitchen (Rabbi Simcha Bunim Cohen; pg 43)
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:14
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 573-4)
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 574)
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:50
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:52
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:16
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:16
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:16
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 575)
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:46, 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 575)
↑ Shulchan Aruch 253:4, Halichot olam vol 4 pg 61, Sh”t Yechave Daat 4:22, Or Letzion (vol 2), Rabbi Mansour on Dailyhalacha.com
↑ Mishna Brurah 253:85
↑ Yalkut Yosef (Shabbat vol 1 pg 107), Sh”t Yechave Daat 4:22
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:50, Rav Yitzchak Yosef (Motzei Shabbat Lech Lecha 5779 min 8)
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:46,9
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:51, 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 576)
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:47
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:47
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 577). The Mishna on Shabbos 42a states that while one may not place spices into a Kli Rishon, there is no prohibition of doing so into a Kli Sheini. The Gemarah on Shabbos 40b relates that when the Amora Rav Avdimai wished to heat up his flask of oil, he was advised to place it into a Kli Sheini in order to avoid the problem of Bishul. The Gemara explains that this heter is based on the assumption that a Kli Sheini does not have the ability to fully cook an item placed inside of it. There is a discussion among the Rishonim as to the exact reason for this heter.
Tosfos on 40b writes that since a Kli Rishon was originally placed directly on top of the fire, its wall will remain heated for an extended period of time. However, since a Kli Sheini was never positioned on top of the flame, its wall will not retain this same level of heat and will cool off at a much quicker pace. According to this logic, the heter of a Kli Sheini would apply even if the contents inside the Kli are still at a level of yad soledes bo because the walls of the vessel are already in the process of cooling down.
Or Same'ach Shabbat 9:2 explains that kli sheni is completely removed from the possibility of cooking since it is a second derivative of the heat of the fire, similar to koach kocho. See there where he goes so far as to suggest that the concept that kalei habishul cook in a kli sheni is only rabbinic. Shoel Umeishiv 5:11 has a similar approach, while Shevet Halevi 7:101:2 and Shulchan Shlomo 318:11:2 cited by Torat Melachot v. 2 p. 134 disagree with the approach of the Or Same'ach.
↑ *The Mishna on Shabbos 145b explains that, although it is forbidden to place uncooked foods into a Kli Rishon on Shabbos, one would be permitted to pour hot water onto these foods from a Kli Sheini. Rashi explains that this act of pouring is not considered Bishul and would therefore be permissible even if done on Shabbos itself. * However, the Mishna goes on to explain that there are certain types of fish for which even pouring would be considered a legitimate act of Bishul as they are more “easily cooked” and therefore considered to be within the category of Kalei Bishul. Since the Mishna writes that even pouring from a Kli Sheini would be assur, we can derive that placing these types of foods directly into a Kli Shinei would be forbidden as well. * There is a disagreement amongst the poskim as to which types of foods fall into this category of Kalei Bishul. The Mishna Brurah (Be’ur Halacha Siman 318 S”K 4) writes that any food which the Gemarah does not explicitly leave out of the category of Kalei Bishul would be forbidden to be placed into a Kli Sheini. However, the Chazon Ish (Siman 52 S”K 19) limits the category of Kalei Bishul. He explains that the only additional items which would be considered Kalei Bishul are those which appear to be easily cooked
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:53
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 579-580)
↑ Mishna Brurah 318:39 at the end
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:58
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:58
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:58 because they are already cooked.
↑ Shaar HaTziyun 318:68, Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:59
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:49, 54. Rav Moshe Feinstein (Igros Moshe O.C. 4:74:16) writes it is permitted to put the instant coffee or sugar into a kli sheni it was already cooked and dried. He just adds that he himself was strict to only put instant coffee or sugar into a kli shelishi as a personal stringency.
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:53
↑ Shulchan Aruch O.C. 318:5 cites two opinions and Rama writes that the Minhag is to be strict even in a Kli Sheni. Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:59 holds like the Rama that it’s forbidden even in a Kli Sheni.
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata. 1:8(2), 1:55, Mishna Brurah 318:39(end) regarding tea essence and milk
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata. 1:8(2)
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:57
↑ The Mishnah (Shabbat 42a) establishes that one is allowed to place spices into a Kli Sheini even though it appears as if the spices are cooking. The first answer in Tosfot Shabbat 39a s.v. kol is that for other foods there is a rabbinic decree not to place them into a kli sheni because it looks like cooking. Spices, however, which just enhance the taste of the food don't have that concern. Tosfot Pesachim 40b s.v. hailfas agrees. The Magen Avraham 318:15 and Mishnah Brurah 318:34 codify this opinion of Tosfot.
↑ Mishnat Chachamim on MB 318:34 cites Leviat Chen n. 44 who disagrees with the Magen Avraham because we follow the second answer of Tosfot Shabbat 39a s.v. kol, Rashba 39a s.v. vkol, Ritva, and others.
↑ The Yereyim 274 s.v. vkol dvar is explicit that a kli shelishi is no different than a kli sheni. This is also the opinion of many poskim including Pri Megadim E"A 318:35, Chazon Ish 52:19, and Aruch HaShulchan 318:28. Shabbos Kitchen (Rabbi Simcha Bunim Kohen; pg 32) hold that tea leaves are food that are easily cooked and a Kli Shelishi is no different than a Kli Sheni. However, Igrot Moshe 4:74 bishul #15 permits putting tea leaves in a Kli Shelishi since he holds that a Kli Shelishi can’t cook at all. Dor Hamelaktim v. 4 p. 2461 cites the Divrei Yatziv OC 155, Rav Yitzchak Berkowitz (Zera Shmutel fnt. 37), and Halacha Sheleimah 2:41 as lenient like Rav Moshe regarding tea. They also quote the Az Nidbaru 12:19, Shemirat Shabbat Kehilchata 1:63, Orchot Shabbat 1:43, Zachor Vshamor p. 119, Minchat Ish 5:87 as being strict on a kli shelishi for making tea. The Mishnah Brurah 318:47 quotes that there would be no issue of placing food into a Kli Shlishi even if it is considered to be easily cooked. According to those who forbid, Mishna Brurah 319:39 writes that one should make tea essence before Shabbat and then pour it into hot water of a Kli Sheni on Shabbat. See Sh”t Shevet Halevi 1:90 who argues on the advise of the Mishna Brurah to cook the leaves before Shabbat and then again on Shabbat because Sh”t Maharam Shik 132 suggest that there may be bishul acher bishul with the tea leaves.
↑ Sh”t Shevet HaLevi 1:90
↑ Mishna Brurah 318:45, Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:59 (new edition 1:68). Shemirat Shabbat Kehilchata stipulates that the ladle must not have been left in the pot for a long time otherwise the ladle is a kli rishon.
↑ In Shabbat 18b, the Gemara says that there’s no issue of Megis (stirring) a hot food if the pot is totally sealed with cement implying that stirring a hot food is forbidden as Bishul, cooking (Rashi 18b s.v. Rambam 3:11, S”A 318:18, Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:31, and 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 560) codify this law as halacha.
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 560)
↑ When Rambam 3:11 and S”A 318:18 quote the law of stirring, they extend it to the case of removing a serving spoon from a hot food which causes a mixing of the food. Bet Yosef explains that when the Rambam forbids by a pot on the fire, it also includes the case of where the pot came off the fire and is still boiling. This is found explicitly in the Ran 6b and Rabbenu Yerucham 3:12 pg 68a. S”A rules this law with the language of a pot removed from the fire. This is brought as halacha in Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:31.
↑ Ritva Shabbat 18b (quoted in Tal Orot pg 39) writes that even after the food was cooked it’s still forbidden on a rabbinic level to stir the hot food. Shulchan Aruch O.C. 318:18 rules one can’t remove a spoon from a food that’s not fully cooked but if it’s fully cooked it’s permitted, which seemingly means that one can remove a spoon from a fully cooked food but not to actually mix it. Similarly, Bet Yosef 321 quotes Sh”t Rambam 68 (and the halacha is also found in Shabbat 21:13) who permits mixing a hot food that was fully cooked and removed from the fire. Bet Yosef adds that even though it’s forbidden even off the fire as long as it’s hot here it’s permitted because it’s totally cooked. Rav Ovadyah (Yalkut Yosef Shabbat vol 3 pg 187; Kol Sinai Tevet 5723) implies from these sources that actually mixing a totally cooked food while on the fire is forbidden as Mechzei KeMevashel (appears like cooking). Or Letzion 2 pg 238 writes that the Kol Bo (quoted by Bet Yosef 253) who forbids stirring a fully cooked pot on the fire is a Deoritta prohibition, while Mishna Brurah 318 argues that clearly stirring a fully cooked food is only forbidden on a rabbinic level (as is explicit in the Ritva). However, Ramach (quoted by Kesef Mishna 9:4), Mamer Mordechai 318:20, and Chazon Ish 37:15 permit actual mixing even though the pot is on the fire because the food is completely cooked.
↑ Ran 6b (according to the version of the Bet Yosef 318:18 quoted by the Hagahot HaBach on the Rif) writes that even removing a serving spoon from the pot of hot food is forbidden because in that act one stirs the food. Rambam 3:11 also rules that putting a serving spoon is forbidden because of stirring. However, Magid Mishna 3:11 explains that that Rambam (and Ran who says this explicitly) only forbade a hot food that wasn’t totally cooked but stirring is permitted if it’s totally cooked (Bet Yosef adds that according to those who hold there’s no issue of cooking once it’s cooked to the stage of Machal Ben Derosai Dursai, here too, stirring is permitted at Machal Ben Dursai). [Interestingly, Maggid Mishna 9:4 says in name of Ramban (18b D”H VeHalo Megis) and Rashba (18b s.v. Tzemer LeYurah) that once the hot food was stirred once it is considered cooked and there’s no issue of cooking with the second stirring.] Shulchan Aruch O.C. 318:18 rules that it’s permitted to remove a spoon from a fully cooked food even when it’s on the fire. However, the Rama is strict not to remove a utensil or stir the pot whether it’s on the fire or even off the fire based on Sh”t Mahari Vayil 30. The achronim including Eliyah Raba 318:40, Chaye Adam 20:9, Levush 321:9, Pri Megadim M”Z 321:23, Sh”t Zera Emet 1:40, Tehila LeDavid 252:1, Mishna Brurah 318:117, 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 561-2), and Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:32 agree that Ashkenazim should be strict like the Rama while the food is still on the fire both not to stir and not to remove a utensil (and they mention that if there’s one who wants to be stringent should be stringent in regards to stirring something off the fire). Sh”t Igrot Moshe 4:74 is strict like the Rama regarding food that’s on the fire and explains that that one may not stir food on the fire because one might assume that the food is totally cooked and it may turn out that it isn’t, which would be a violation of a Torah prohibition. Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:32 adds that if there’s going to be no way to remove food from the pot and return it to the fire (because of absence of a suitable cover of the fire) one may be lenient and remove food (not stir) as long as the food is surely fully cooked.
↑ See above note. The Chida in name of the Radvaz 3:411, Taz 318:23, Sh"t Yabea Omer OC 10:55, and Yalkut Yosef (Shabbat vol 3 pg 187) rule like S”A. [Interestingly, Orchot Rabbenu Kehilat Yacov pg 149 writes that in the house of the Chazon Ish and Kehilat Yacov (who were Ashkenazic), they actually took food from a pot on the fire when the food was fully cooked, not like the Rama (however, Orchot Rabbenu explains that since they were so strict regarding Chazara, if they weren’t lenient in this regard, they wouldn’t have hot food on Shabbat). The Chazon Ish 37:15 actually rules this way.
↑ Bet Yosef 321 quotes Sh”t Rambam 68 (and the halacha is also found in Rambam Hilchot Shabbat 21:13) who permits mixing a hot food that was fully cooked and removed from the fire. S”A 318:18 rules that it’s permitted to remove a spoon from a fully cooked food even when it’s on the fire, implying when off the fire and it’s fully cooked one can actually stir the food. Yalkut Yosef (Kitzur S”A vol 1 pg 631), and Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:32 rule that once the food is off the fire, one may stir the food. [Mishna Brurah 318:117 writes that if one want to be strict one shouldn’t stir it but just remove the food from the pot.]
↑ 39 Melachos (vol 2 pg 561)
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:34
↑ Halacha Brurah (318:143 p. 361) writes that it is permitted to use a ladle to serve soup even though replacing the ladle back in the pot is going to cook to the liquid on it when put back in a kli rishon. Even though the drops might not be yad soledet bo and aren’t contained in a kli rishon, still they can be returned since it is a pesik reisha dlo nicha leh, the drops were cooked once and some rishonim hold ein bishul achar bishul even for liquids, and it is a chatzi shiur. he cites Mishna Halachot 6:67, Tzitz Eliezer 13:40, and Minchat Yitzchak 9:30 as also being lenient. He cites Menuchat Ahava 2:10:34 p. 353 who is strict regarding the wet cup but lenient regarding the wet ladle.
↑ Orchot Shabbat 1:2:73:1-2, 39 Melachos v. 2 p. 649
↑ Rabbi Willig in The Laws of Cooking and Warming Food on Shabbat pp. 124-6
↑ Orchot Shabbat 1:2:73:3, 39 Melachos v. 2 p. 649. 39 Melachos makes it clear that this option is less preferred than bringing the cholent pot directly under the urn. Rav Hershel Schachter (The Laws of Cooking and Warming Food on Shabbat p. 184) forbids this option altogether and only allows bringing the urn to the cholent pot.
↑ Shulchan Aruch O.C. 253:4, Rabbi Mansour citing Rav Ovadia Yosef in Halichot Olam v. 4 p. 61, Yachava Daat, and Rav Ben Tzion Abba Shaul in Or Letzion 2
↑ Rabbi Mansour, Or Hahalacha p. 175
↑ Or Hahalacha p. 175
↑ Or Hahalacha p. 175
↑ Orchot Shabbat 1:2:71
↑ Halachos of Shabbat (Rabbi Eider p. 395), The 39 Melachos (Rabbi Ribiat, vol 2 pg 639), Igrot Moshe YD 2:33, Yabia Omer OC 4:35. R' Eider cites Rav Henkin (Edut Lyisrael p. 122), Chelkat Yakov 1:78, Minchat Yitzchak 3:137, Tzitz Eliezer 2:18, Chazon Ish's letter in Menucha Nechona p. 61 who all agree that using the hot tap water is forbidden on Shabbat.
↑ The 39 Melachos (Rabbi Ribiat, vol 2 pg 640)
↑ The 39 Melachos (Rabbi Ribiat, vol 2 pg 640) considers it to be a case of safek pesik reisha with a grama which has a possibility of being lenient. However, he isn't sure that it is a grama. Yabia Omer 4:35 flatly rejects the idea that it is grama since as the hot water is remove new cold water enters. Igrot Moshe YD 2:33 agrees.
↑ The 39 Melachos (Rabbi Ribiat, vol 2 pg 640-1). Rav Shlomo Zalman Auerbach in Shulchan Shlomo 318:44 (cited by Halacha Brurah 318:74) writes that if the faucet is only a little bit open it is permitted to close it since the little bit of water that enters gets cooked immediately and closing the faucet doesn't cause the waters to cook any quicker.
↑ Halacha Brurah 318:74 writes that if the water boiler is electric and automatically continues to work even if the hot water has been running for a long time. Additionally, it is forbidden if the boiler works with a gas fire that turns off when the hot water is closed. However, if the system stops working once the water has emptied out then it is permitted to close the hot faucet once the water coming out is no longer Yad Soledet Bo since closing it isn't going to cause the water inside to get cooked as the system is currently off. In the footnote he discusses whether one can close the faucet because it is considered grama and he concludes that he isn't sure that it is grama based on Yabia Omer OC 4:35.
↑ The 39 Melachos (Rabbi Ribiat, vol 2 pg 640-1)
↑ Mishna Brurah 318:39, Aruch Hashulchan 318:28, 39 Melachos (Rabbi Ribiat, vol 2, pg 660).
However, Rabbi Chaim Jachter cites the opinion of Rav Yosef Dov Soloveitchik in the name of his grandfather, Rav Chaim Soloveitchik, who made tea on Shabbat using a Kli Sheni, because the gemara Shabbat 42b says that it is permissible to put spices into a kli sheini, and Rav Chaim considered tea to be a spice. Nefesh Harav pg. 170 quotes that Rav Yosef Dov Soloveitchik held this way himself as well. Rav Shlomo Zalman Auerbach (quoted in Shmirat Shabbat KeHilchata chapter 1 note 152) is quoted as saying that the spices referred to in the gemara in shabbat 42b were different then the spices of today, and that today's spices would be considered like kalei habishul.
↑ Halacha Brurah 318:121 explains that one can even do iruy kli rishon initially onto instant tea which is cooked in advance and then dried and concentrated (e.g. Britannica ("Instant Tea")). Vaish Mordechai 1:8:4 explains that regarding sugar the Ben Ish Chai Bo n. 7 advises being strict for the Chayei Adam to place sugar in a kli sheni and not do iruy kli rishon upon them. Mishna Brurah 318:71 agrees. However, Yachava Daat 2:44 writes that it isn't necessary to be strict and iruy kli rishon upon sugar which was already cooked is totally fine.
↑ Mishna Brurah 318:39, Orchot Shabbat 1:74
↑ Orchot Shabbat 1:75 fnt. 165 writes that there’s no bishul achar bishul if something was cooked in a kli sheni before SHabbat to put it in a kli sheni again on Shabbat. Therefore, it is permitted to put the tea essence made in a kli sheni before Shabbat in a kli sheni on Shabbat since it is ein bishul achar bishul. Even though the tea essence is a cold liquid it isn’t considered a kalei habishul and as such it wouldn’t cook in a kli sheni. He acknowledges that the tea essence was never cooked in a kli rishon but it isn’t necessary since on Shabbat itself it is only going to be cooked in a kli sheni. However, he cites Rav Shmuel Auerbach who didn’t yet it. Additionally, Tehilah LDovid 318:19 holds that it is forbidden. The only type of ein bishul achar bishul that chazal permitted is when the food was cooked in a kli rishon before Shabbat. Piskei Teshuvot 318:33 cites this and others who agree.
↑ Orchot Shabbat 1:78
↑ Igrot Moshe 4:74(15) writes that a Kli Shelishi doesn't cook at all and so it's permissible to put a tea bag in a Kli Shelishi. This is also the opinion of the 39 Melachos (Rabbi Ribiat, vol 2, pg 661). There are some who disagreed with this idea, namely the Aruch HaShulchan 318:28 and Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:63 (in the new edition, see note 192). [The Mishna Brurah 318:39 clearly leave out this option implying that it's not a valid alternative. Rabbi Aryeh Lebowitz in an article on yutorah.org writes "The Mishna Brurah writes that one may not cook tea even in a Kli Shelishi." and in a Rabbi Lebowitz on the Ten Minute Halacha reiterates this point.]
Sh”t Shevet HaLevi 1:90 writes that there’s an issue of putting tea leaves in a kli rishon on Shabbat even if they were put in boiling water before Shabbat. However, if the leaves were totally cooked there’s no issue of putting them in a kli rishon on Shabbat.
↑ Consensus of many poskim (Igros Moshe O.C. 4:74-18; Harav S.Z. Auerbach, quoted in Shemiras Shabbos K'hilchasah 1, note 150; Harav Y.S. Elyashiv, quoted in Me'or ha-Shabbos 1:221) unlike the Chazon Ish (O.C. 52:19) who tends to be lenient on this issue. See Weekly Halacha by Rav Doniel Neustadt.
↑ Halacha yomit in the name of Chacham Ovadia Yosef
↑ Halacha Brurah (Bishul 318:141 p. 356) explains that it is permitted to pour hot water on top of droplets because it is a pesik reisha dlo nicha leh, iruy could be considered a kli sheni according to some rishonim, and the drops are a chatzi shiur. He cites Igrot Moshe OC 1:93, Or Letzion 2:30:10, Beer Moshe 6:110, Minchat Yitzchak 9:30-31 as being strict. Yabia Omer OC 4:33 is lenient. Halacha Brurah also cites Divrei Yatziv 1:156, Tzitz Eliezer 13:40, Tefila Lmoshe 1:36, Shevet Halevi 7:42:2, Mishna Halachot 6:67, Orchot Shabbat ch. 1 fnt. 156 citing Rav Shlomo Zalman Auerbach, and Meor Hashabbat v. 1 p. 161 citing Rav Elyashiv as lenient.
↑ Yalkut Yosef (Shabbat v. 3 Sechita Bshaar Dvarim n. 37) based on Panim Meirot 1:84 and Pri Megadim MZ 318:15 unlike the Zera Emet 1:39 who is concerned that the sugar wasn't cooked in the production.
↑ Shemirat Shabbat KeHilchata 1:49, 54. Rav Moshe Feinstein (Igros Moshe O.C. 4:74:16), Orchot Shabbat 1:83, 86
↑ Orchot Shabbat 1 fnt. 178 quotes the Shevet Halevi who is concerned that since the instant coffee was cooked and then baked it is like it was never cooked. He cites however, that Rav Shlomo Zalman Auerbach (Meor Hashabbat v. 3 n. 42:2) was lenient. He also cites from Meor Hashabbat that Rav Elyashiv was strict unless it would ruin the coffee being hot.
↑ Article by Rabbi Sultan on YUTorah. See Rabbi Aryeh Lebowitz's Ten Minute Halacha on this topic. He presents three basic opinions. Either it can be made in a kli sheni, kli shelishi, or shouldn't be made at all on Shabbat. Rabbi Yona Reiss's opinion is recorded on the CRC site.
↑ Article on Eretz Chemda's Site writes that it is permitted to use a coffee filter on Shabbat since it is similar to the case of a strainer used for wine in the Mishna Shabbat 137. However, it is forbidden to use a french press since that involves using a kli to separate a mixture.Rabbi Aryeh Lebowitz agreed that it is permitted to use the coffee filter based on Shulchan Aruch 319:9 but not a french press since that involves your action to separate the mixture.
↑ Rabbi Aryeh Lebowitz explains that since cooking and Borer are permitted on Yom Tov for the purpose of Ochel Nefesh as long as the food couldn't have been made in the same way before Yom Tov it is permitted to use a coffee filter or French press on Yom Tov to make coffee.
↑ Shulchan Aruch O.C. 318:1 in accordance with Rabbi Yehuda.
↑ Magen Avraham 318:2 suggests that whoever he cooked for can't benefit like the cook himself. His proof is Y.D. 99:5. He concludes though that the Bet Yosef is lenient. Mishna Brurah 318:5 is lenient. Kaf HaChayim on Orach Chayim 318:12:1 and Yalkut Yosef 318:1 agree.
↑ Shulchan Aruch O.C. 318:1
↑ Gra 318:1 follows Rabbi Meir. Mishna Brurah 318:7 is lenient for the Gra in a case of need. Yalkut Yosef 318:3 is strict even in difficult cases because Sephardim accepted Shulchan Aruch on this question.
↑ Halacha Brurah 318:5 is lenient for those who assume that bitul brov is sufficient to employ the leniency of the Shibolei Haleket. Minchat Shlomo 1:5 suggests it.
↑ Yalkut Yosef (Otzer Dinim Lisha pp. 629-632) explains that covering a pot of food where the food isn't cooked is a biblical violation of bishul and the food would be forbidden. He is disagreeing with the Menuchat Ahava and implication of the Or Letzion. He says that a ramification of the dispute is whether someone accidentally covered a pot with uncooked food and hastened the cooking whether the food is forbidden. As an aside he writes that if the food was already cooked machal ben dursay the food would be permitted since some rishonim permit cooking it further.
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Make the right impact with hammers, whether that is for construction work, controlled destruction, or just providing a helpful knock during fitting. While there are hammers designed for a multitude of purposes, specialist models are available for brick work, carpentry, and chiselling. Some are good for softer masonry where a focused impact might be dangerous, and rubberised options work best to minimise cosmetic damage during construction and like brickwork and nudging materials into place. A variety of handle lengths is also available, for times when a longer reach is required or more force is needed to fit something into place. Different materials also play a part in choosing the right hammer, with heavy duty steel for a long service or more traditional wooden handled designs for lighter tasks.
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When it comes to organizing a trip to the United States, it can be tough to know where to begin because there is so much to see in this large country. Visitors have a wide range of options in world-class cities, with some noted for history and others for pleasure or luxury. Your particular interests may determine the finest destinations to visit in the United States.
New York and Washington, D.C., both on the Eastern Seaboard, offer two quite distinct metropolitan experiences. San Francisco and Los Angeles, both on the West Coast, are popular tourist destinations. Las Vegas brings the desert to life, while the Grand Canyon displays one of nature’s most magnificent masterpieces. So, while planning for your next vacation spot in this charming land. Make sure you have booked delta airlines reservations online to save up to 40% off on every flight to anywhere. We have listed some of the most popular places to visit in USA:
Orlando
It is extremely popular among children. Adults, on the other hand, will appreciate the parks, as well as shopping, dining, golfing, and the sunshine. The busiest time to visit is during the school holidays. The holidays, especially around Christmas and during the summer, are exceptionally demanding. Fortunately, Orlando is well-suited to travelers, with a wide range of hotels and vacation rentals.
New Orleans
The cultural mix, which is heavily influenced by French and Spanish, is more akin to the Caribbean than the United States. Cajun and Creole cuisine, jazz music, and the French Quarter’s architecture distinguish this city and make it ideal for a long weekend escape. Mardi Gras, when elaborate costumes and outrageous floats light up the streets, music can be heard everywhere, and the celebrations appear never-ending, is the climax of New Orleans’ calendar year.
Seattle
The city, which is surrounded by sea and snow-capped mountains, is evocative of Vancouver, Canada, with an active, outdoor-oriented population and a diverse range of things to see and do. The city’s must-see attractions include the iconic Space Needle, the bustling Pike Place Market, and the waterfront. Beautiful beaches, the Hoh Rain Forest, and mountain scenery are all within easy day-trip distance of the city, waiting to be explored.
Utah’s National Parks
With canyons, arches, natural amphitheaters, and strangely gorgeous rock formations, Southern Utah has a landscape unlike any other. Thankfully, Utah’s parks provide access to some of the state’s most breathtaking scenery. One of the most impressive is Zion National Park, which is known for its hiking paths. This park is one of the most visited in the United States, with soaring cliff walls, waterfalls, and a river running through the valley,
New York
New York Metropolis is unlike any other city on the planet, and it has to be seen to be properly appreciated. The Empire State Building, Rockefeller Plaza, the Chrysler Building, Central Park, The High Line, Times Square, 5th Avenue, Broadway, and, of course, the Statue of Liberty can make traversing the streets feel like walking through a movie set for first-time visitors.
Colorado’s the Rocky Mountains
The Rocky Mountains’ spectacular peaks may be enjoyed from many locations around North America, but Colorado’s climate and small mountain communities make it one of the greatest places to visit the Rockies. This area is beautiful for viewing and appreciating mountain life, with waterfalls and snow-capped peaks, more than 50 of which reach a height of 14,000 feet or more. Hiking, mountain biking, and rafting are popular summer activities.
Boston
Boston has a distinct charm, with its picturesque location along the seashore and ferries linking the suburbs. Modern skyscrapers coexist with centuries-old structures, and open public spaces such as Boston Common lend the city a charming, small-town vibe. The city also has a vibrant arts and culture scene, with the world-famous Boston Pops Orchestra calling it home.
Miami
Beautiful beaches may be found all around Florida, but Miami has a unique vibe that no other city in the state can match. The Cuban vibe along Calle Ocho in Little Havana, the Art Deco District in Miami Beach, which harkens back to the 1930s, the never-ending parade of sports cars cruising along Ocean Drive in the evenings, and the summertime beach scene of South Beach are just a few of the unique features that make Miami one of the best cities in the United States.
Chicago
Chicago, which is located on the shores of Lake Michigan, is a terrific summer vacation spot with parks and a lovely waterfront. However, it is a popular year-round resort due to its arts and cultural activities, as well as superb shopping. The Magnificent Mile, which runs along Michigan Avenue and features high-end luxury stores and galleries, as well as historic structures and remarkable architecture, is the city’s most famous neighborhood, Visit us:- Delta airlines customer care phone number
Conclusion
These destinations are known for Best Winter Vacations in the United States. If you want to see winter in all of its grandeur, read our post on the Best Winter Vacations in the United States. This isn’t about beaches and warm-weather vacations; rather, it’s for those who want to go snowmobiling, dog sledding, skiing, or sipping hot chocolate in a nice cottage. However, if you are planning a trip to the USA for the first time. Book your trip with AirlinesMap and personalize your travel package itself. We wish you a Happy Journey!
Tourist United States
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Police in Durham Region say the general manager of a retirement home has been charged for allegedly removing door handles to some units during the pandemic.
Investigators say they got a complaint on Feb. 12 against staff members at the White Cliffe Terrace Retirement Residence (pictured) in Courtice.
Police say the complaint alleged that during the pandemic staff had removed some of the door handles.
Tawab Karimi, 40, of Oshawa, has been charged with two counts of unlawful confinement.
He was released on an undertaking.
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The retirement home’s operator said in February that it launched an investigation into a senior staff member at the facility.
A statement from Verve Senior Living said door handles removed from “a small number” of suites belonged to assisted living residents.
The statement did not specify why the handles were removed, but several media reports allege the residents involved had tested positive for COVID-19. The Canadian Press could not independently verify the allegation.
David Bird, president of Verve parent company Diversicare Canada, said at the time that all handles have since been replaced and an investigation is underway to determine how long residents may have been confined to their rooms.
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All seven remaining countries have been removed from England's travel red list as the threat from coronavirus eases.
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Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said all seven countries remaining on the travel red list - Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama, Peru and Venezuela - would be removed as of 4am on Monday.
In a series of tweets, he said the category would remain in place "as a precautionary measure" in case countries needed to be added back in.
He said: "All seven remaining countries on the red list will be REMOVED from Mon 1 Nov at 4am.
"We can also confirm that from Monday, eligible travellers from over 30 new countries and territories including Peru & Uganda will be added to our inbound vax policy, bringing the total number of countries on this list to over 135.
"We will keep the red list category in place as a precautionary measure to protect public health and are prepared to add countries and territories back if needed, as the UK's first line of defence."
The policy for quarantine hotels will also remain in place in case guidance has to change.
However, hotel quarantine stays have come to an end for now, with people able travel to these countries without having to fork out £2,285 on an 11-night stay.
Read more: Travel update: Red list slashed to just seven countries
Read more: Amber list scrapped as simplified travel rules come into force
"This is another step in the right direction for international travel with more good news today for passengers, businesses and the travel sector," Mr Shapps later said in a statement.
"We’re continuing to make great progress as we recover from the pandemic and today is another example of how far we have come.
"Whether it’s reuniting family members or making it easier for businesses to trade, the success of the vaccine rollout both at home and abroad has allowed us to reach this milestone.
"However, we must not be complacent and remain ready to spring into action and defend our hard-won gains if needed."
Health and Social Care Secretary Sajid Javid said: "I am glad we are able to reduce the travel list even further, giving a huge boost to businesses, families and friends wanting to travel.
"The red list and quarantine remain vital in protecting our borders - we are keeping a small number of quarantine rooms on standby and will not hesitate to take swift action by adding countries to the red list if the risk increases again."
Read more: Cheaper lateral flow tests replace PCRs for holidaymakers in 'huge boost' for travel
The Scottish and Welsh Government have since confirmed that they will follow the changes made to England's travel red list.
Eluned Morgan, health and social services minister for Wales, said the country would follow suit as "it is difficult for Wales to adopt different arrangements to those required by the UK Government" but warned "the pandemic is not over".
Scotland's transport minister, Graeme Dey, said: "Today’s decision is a further sign of the success of the Scottish Government’s vaccination programme and will enable the travel and tourism sector to take another step back towards normal operations."
No announcement has been made by the devolved administration in Northern Ireland, but in recent months they have mirrored Westminster's changes to travel rules.
The move puts England, Scotland and Wales in line with most of the rest of Europe and has been welcomed by travel agencies.
Paul Charles, chief executive of travel consultancy The PC Agency, said there's "no justification" now for any country to be on a red list or for hotel quarantine to be in existence.
"There have been no new variants of concern since May and countries are now learning that blanket border measures, such as blocking whole countries, don't work," he said.
"The best approach is to check for an individual's vaccine status and ensure they are up to date if they want to travel without restrictions."
Hotel quarantine was first introduced as part of measures to reduce the risk from arriving travellers infected with coronavirus.
However, it has been blamed for contributing to UK travel firms struggling to recover from the pandemic.
Karen Dee, chief executive of the Airport Operators Association, said the announcement was a "significant step forward to normalising international travel and should give people confidence to book".
She went on: "Ultimately, we need to return to a situation similar to prior to the pandemic, in which people can travel without further tests or forms to fill out.
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LFC Live - Liverpool FC News - Lineker hails 'unbelievably brilliant' £150k a week Liverpool ace who holds Champions League record
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Lineker hails 'unbelievably brilliant' £150k a week Liverpool ace who holds Champions League record
Below is a summary of the full article. Click here for the full version or go back to LFC Live.net
BBC pundit Gary Lineker has admitted that he was wrong about James Milner and insists he is a ‘brilliant professional.’ Speaking on the BBC Match of the Day Top 10 Podcast, he backtracked on the Liverpool midfielder, saying: “A few years ago I tweeted something.
“He always played in different positions and I tweeted something, I did a tweet along the lines of ‘I don’t really know what James Milner is’ and I was wrong, because actually what he is is an unbelievably brilliant professional who will play anywhere for you.
In 2017/18 the Reds were beaten by Real Madrid in the final and, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is more often remembered as Liverpool’s standout midfielder on the path to Kiev, Milner is forgotten.
Interestingly, Roberto Firmino is joint-fourth with seven assists also in 2017/18.
‘That’s quite unusual’: Gary Lineker makes note about a Liverpool player Gary Lineker makes Divock Origi admission after Liverpool winner at Wolves ‘Energy’: Gary Lineker says Manchester City 21y/o could play for Liverpool
Liverpool fans, rival supporters and pundits all gloss over the fact that he holds the single-season record for Champions League assists with more than the likes of Lionel Messi, Wayne Rooney and Neymar have ever managed.
“I apologised and he took it with great spirit.” One thing I have always found annoying is that Milner, who is on £150,000 a week, never gets credit for doing anything other than working hard, being versatile and being willing to play anywhere for Jurgen Klopp.
That season, he set the record for most assists in a single campaign with nine while Wayne Rooney (8) in 2013/14 and Neymar (8) in 2016/17 come in next.
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Traditional astrologers believe that Aries is most compatible with Aries, Gemini, Leo, Sagittarius, and Aquarius, and least compatible with Taurus, Cancer, Virgo, Libra, Scorpio, and Capricorn, but what do the actual marriage and divorce statistics say?
Mathematician Gunter Sachs (1998) conducted a large-scale study of sun sign trends, encompassing nearly one million people in Switzerland, which found statistically significant results on a number of measures including marriage and divorce. Castille (2000) conducted a similar study in France using marriage statistics collected between 1976 and 1997, which included more than six million marriages. Findings from these studies are summarized below.
Marriage: Aries Men
The Sachs Study
Sachs found that Aries men most often marry Aries women and are least likely to marry Scorpios. As for divorce, they part from Leos at an above-average rate, but tend to stay married to Aries women. The following is an overall ranking from most common to least common marriages with Aries men (* indicates that the result is statistically significant – in other words, the effect was too big to attribute to random chance):
Aries*
Leo
Taurus
Gemini
Pisces (same marriage rate as Gemini)
Virgo
Libra
Capricorn
Aquarius
Cancer
Sagittarius
Scorpio*
Aries men may be less likely to marry Scorpio women due to the clash of two headstrong personalities that both need to be in control. Also, Scorpio jealousy and Aries flirtatiousness do not mix well.
Aries and Leo are thought to be compatible, at least for friendship. However, the higher-than-average divorce statistic for Aries men and Leo women may also result from a clash between two very forceful, dominant personalities.
The Castille Study
Castille also found that Aries men are most likely to marry Aries women and least likely to marry Scorpios. The following is an overall ranking from most common to least common marriages with Aries men (* indicates that the result is statistically significant):
Aries*
Taurus
Pisces
Leo
Aquarius
Gemini
Sagittarius
Virgo
Capricorn
Libra
Cancer
Scorpio
Of course, if two individuals have very compatible rising signs or moon signs, opposing tendencies will be minimized and there should be more common ground, so many marriages between supposedly incompatible signs can actually work very well.
All About Aries, New Expanded Edition, now available in paperback and Kindle!
Marriage: Aries Women
The Sachs Study
Sachs found that Aries women most frequently choose Aries, Leo, and Sagittarius men for their marriage partners, while Cancer is the sign they are least likely to marry. As for divorce, Aries women most often part from Virgos and Libras, and least often from Aries, Leo, Sagittarius, and Aquarius men.
The marriage and divorce statistics for Aries women are unsurprising, as all three of the top marriage signs are fire signs, which are considered the best matches for Aries because they tend to provide plenty of fun and excitement so that spouses are less likely to grow bored and wander off. As for the relatively low divorce statistic for Aries and Aquarius, Aquarius has a lot in common with Aries, including friendliness, adventurousness, a low boredom threshold, and love of trying new things. Also, the typical Aquarian has a relatively high tolerance for Aries insensitivity. Emotionally detached Aquarians are more inclined to analyze a rude comment intellectually or shrug it off than go sulk in a corner.
Virgos and Libras are not the best matches for an Aries woman unless their rising or moon signs are more compatible. Virgos tend to be cautious, fussy, and practical, traits for which Aries has little patience, and while Aries can be direct or even combative when addressing emotional issues, a typical Libra shies away from all forms of conflict except friendly debate, which will aggravate Aries. However, despite their differences, these two signs are often attracted to each other.
The following is an overall ranking from most common to least common marriages with Aries women (* indicates that the result is statistically significant):
Aries*
Sagittarius*
Leo*
Pisces
Aquarius
Capricorn
Libra
Taurus
Gemini
Scorpio
Virgo
Cancer*
A typical Aries likes city life and meeting lots of new people, whereas typical Cancers usually prefer nature-based or home-based activities with a small circle of close, long-term friends, so it’s unsurprising that Cancers are not always the first choice for Aries women. To make matters worse, Aries bluntness combined with Cancer sensitivity can be a recipe for disaster. Aries may find Cancer too moody, whereas Cancer may perceive Aries as selfish and cruel.
Castille Study
The Castille study found the highest rate of marriage between Aries women and Aries men, though Aries women in France were least likely to marry Virgos rather than Cancers. The following is an overall ranking from most common to least common marriages with Aries women (*indicates that the result is statistically significant):
Aries*
Pisces
Gemini
Capricorn
Sagittarius
Libra
Aquarius
Leo
Taurus
Cancer
Scorpio
Virgo*
The Aries-Aries match was the clear winner, while the marriage rate with Virgo was below average. The clash between Virgo’s sensible, cautious approach to life and Aries’ impulsive risk-taking can make things difficult for this pair, as Aries is often impatient with careful individuals, whereas a typical Virgo is disdainful of those who take seemingly pointless risks.
The Best Match for Aries
The best long-term love match for Aries appears to be another Aries (as well as Leo, Sagittarius, and Aquarius for Aries women), while Cancer, Virgo, Libra, and Scorpio can be less auspicious matches in some cases. However, Aries who find themselves romantically entangled with one of the less compatible signs should not despair. Plenty of relationships and marriages between supposedly incompatible signs have lasted.
It’s important to keep in mind that these are statistical tendencies; this doesn’t mean that every romance between incompatible signs is doomed. For example, out of 6,498,320 marriages encompassing all possible sign combinations in the Castille study, there were 934 more marriages between Aries men and Aries women than would be expected if sun signs had no effect, whereas between Aries women and Virgo men, there were 633 fewer marriages than would be expected if pairings were random. However, there were still many marriages between the supposedly least compatible signs.
Astrology is complex, and there is more to take into account than just sun signs. Two people with incompatible sun signs may have highly compatible rising signs or moon signs that can make the difference between a bad match and a good match with a bit of an “edge” that keeps things interesting.
*The methodology of the Sachs study has been criticized and it remains controversial. I have found no critiques of the Castille study thus far.
Further Reading
For more on Aries, see the Aries Personality Profile. To see personality and marriage profiles for all the sun signs, visit the main Astrology page.
References:
Bugler, C. (Ed.). (1992). The Complete Handbook of Astrology. Marshall Cavendish Ltd., Montreal, 1992.
Castille, D. (2000). “Sunny Day for a Wedding.” Les Cahiers du RAMS.
Sachs, G. (1998). The Astrology File: Scientific Proof of the Link Between Star Signs and Human Behavior. Orion Books Ltd., London.
Woolfolk, J.M. (2001). The Only Astrology Book You’ll Ever Need. Madison Books, Lanham, MD.
101 thoughts on “Love, Marriage, and Compatibility for Aries”
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Elizabeth says:
August 22, 2018 at 7:09 am
I am a Aries woman and I have been married to a Virgo man for 48 yrs, I am 67 y o, my husband is 76 y o.
Reply
Fiona says:
August 3, 2019 at 11:47 pm
Well how the hell have you coped with that?! You deserve a medal for that long with a nit picky, dull and self righteous Virgo.
Reply
Sushmita says:
September 12, 2019 at 6:40 am
Elizabeth! You give me hope :))
I’m planning to marry a Virgo man soon and I see the clear differences in our nature. Yet, I believe it’s not an impossible pair.
Reply
Birdie says:
December 28, 2020 at 5:55 pm
I’m about to start the divorce process from my Virgo ex. I’m an Aries woman. I’ll never date/marry a Virgo again. He started off attracted to me spoiling me as I turn down most of his gifts. We dated for 8 yrs. then married and stayed together 5 more yrs. He changed drastically and left abruptly. His lack of common sense really effected our relationship even w the way he left. It shows he had zero common sense. Someone else’s ignorance can hurt you. Remember that. Virgo’s are no good for Aries!!!
Reply
Letitia says:
September 16, 2019 at 11:27 pm
I am.Aries woman still inlove with my ex who.is a.leo man.. Highly unusual.for.me to. CLing this long. What should i do??? Feelings are faiding but not quickly enough.
Reply
Roy says:
February 27, 2021 at 3:12 pm
Virgo men are easy to get along with. We nitpick when Aries keeo making the same mistakes, when it comes towards having male friends. If he want to be intimate with you he cant be your friend. If he keeps asking you for money evertime he cant be your friend. If he was your ex, no he cant come to the family reunion. If a guy tries to pick you up,then say okay maybe we can be friends, dont take his number.if there is a deal too good to br truth please come discuss it together before pulling the trigger on it. Why the only time aries listen to virgoes is after good sex? I dont have to sex you good while making these deals with you at the same time. Understand that you cannot out love us, we will love you even with grumpy, flaws ♂️. That’s it fix those few problems and virgo will leave you alone. Romance you, and make you a priority. easygoing.
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Dre scott says:
October 30, 2018 at 1:05 am
I am Libra man and My beautiful woman is Aries we each other everything so y’all is wrong about Aries and libra.
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Tamkio Peters says:
February 25, 2019 at 11:48 am
Yes cause I’m a Libra and my fiance is a aries and we are like soulmates and he knows me and gets me.
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Heather says:
March 10, 2019 at 3:19 pm
I was engaged to a Libra for 8 years and with them for 12, indecisive will never fight for you, which an Aries needs. We get along fine as they are very diplomatic and let Aries have their way and Libras are great but they are a waste of time and are incapable of making any of the most simple decisions. Eventually, an Aries will walk all over them even though we don’t mean too. We just don’t respect that.
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Babygirlftct says:
April 26, 2019 at 7:41 pm
I agree was married to a Libra for 16yrs. He passed but we were nothing a like.
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Jasmine says:
September 30, 2019 at 8:39 am
Your so right about that
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MrsR0s3 says:
December 28, 2019 at 4:46 am
Can totally agree I’m an ARIES Women and just had to leave my Libra companion of 5 years. I felt like I was in a relationship alone.
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Judy says:
January 8, 2021 at 8:58 am
I’m an Aries woman who is currently separating from my Libra partner of 4 years. I can relate to you comment, I was tired of being alone in my marriage with someone who never ever prioritised me, our relationship or respected me or my feelings. And being an Aries I thought I was the insensitive one 😉
I grew tired of the constant indecisiveness, never apologizing or taking any responsibility for anything. But the most irritating was the righteousness….I lost my respect and the love is fading away.
MINA says:
April 4, 2021 at 6:58 am
Libra men and not all, but most are freaky and I feel Aries match that, but Libra men are not faithful and likes to throw conversations you had with them back in your face like they ate better then you, because they never got caught.
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Penguin says:
May 2, 2019 at 3:44 am
Thanks for giving me hope.. and the way you refer to your woman is just so sweet!!
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Indraneel Chatterjee says:
January 25, 2020 at 3:01 am
It all depends on the horoscope as to what planets are positive and negative. Aries and Libra working the Libra woman is not headstrong as Libra is s peaceful sign unless their ego and arrogance start creating trouble . Opposites do attract .
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Bahja warsame says:
November 15, 2018 at 10:18 am
I am pisces and i love Aries man , what to do ?
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Manoj says:
March 17, 2019 at 8:09 pm
I am an Aries. From where are you?? You can ping me at 9154510751
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Kat says:
September 24, 2020 at 8:30 am
I’d run honey I’ve dated 2 pisces and they were the most toxic relationships i was ever in
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April says:
July 29, 2021 at 9:29 pm
I am a Arise woman and I’m very in love with a Pisces man and I don’t know what to do he all I think about.
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hayley says:
January 11, 2019 at 1:12 pm
Libra is unpredictable and too frank. also indecisive
Leo are sword tongue people & innocent pure heart.
Virgo are too overly problematic about everything but Great organization.
Gemini are playful & unpredictable, seems wont get serious & fixed.
Sagittarius have own world & very outgoing. happy nature.
Capricorn deep person, & plans everything.
Based on my experience, suggestion only…
Capricorn and Aries are Great Compatible.
Attention seeking is truly nature of Aries.
Capricorn stability in emotions reassures a pamper seeking Aries.
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Aakangsha Dahal says:
February 21, 2019 at 8:40 am
finally m feeling good…reading ur experience…. Above… Please I request you tell me little more about aries and capricorn…
I’m aries
And my boyfriend is Capricorn…
I’m 19 and he is 23…
We are in 7 years relationship.. and now m very afraid to loosing him…. Please help me please….
I hope for your reply…
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Ceecee says:
March 6, 2019 at 1:32 pm
I was in the same situation a few weeks ago and our personalities clashed he didn’t like to be corrected or to be given advice with my Aries self I always want to speak the truth and was always open to new things whereas he was the opposite best of look it might not be your case but I ain’t dating no Capricorn again
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Tricy says:
November 28, 2019 at 6:11 am
My second ex-husband is a Capricorn and I have chatted with other Capricorns. My opinion and experience is they are not a match for me in the long run. Very boring and predictable. Like I said my opinion. I will not date nor marry another Capricorn.
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riverireland says:
January 11, 2020 at 8:14 am
My husband is a Capricorn. I am a true Aries woman.
We are both 28 ….we have been together for 15 years and married for 3 years this august.
We butt heads all the time we both have strong personalities and opinions but we both rather fight for each other than against each other. Put your fire where you want it in your relationship- the sex!!
A relationship is about a lot more than star signs.
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Joy says:
March 10, 2021 at 6:33 am
I love you. Thanks for making the most reasonable point.
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Carolyn G. says:
March 31, 2021 at 11:28 pm
I met a Capricorn, and fell in love with him. The sex is definitely hot, but we didn’t get into a relationship. We are very attractive to each other thou, and I think about him all the time.
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Ratashi says:
March 30, 2019 at 7:19 am
Thank you so much. You’ve helped me more than you know. Most people say an Aries woman cannot be with a Capricorn man because it will never work. Capricorn man provides stability and that is exactly what the Aries woman needs for balance.
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Sue the crabby ram says:
November 12, 2019 at 12:28 pm
I’m an Aries with a cancer rising sun. So am I doomed as far as being compatible with anyone? It just goes to hell in a hand basket in a real hurry! Shall I just give up?
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a says:
April 3, 2020 at 12:14 am
WOW you’re the only person that has the same sun (Aries) and rising (cancer) and I FEEL YOUUU I totally agree about the whole being domed to ever being compatible w anyone. I feel like I can’t be with anyone it’s too hard for me and never works out for some reason but whenever I’ve tried, they never worked out so I give up :/ whatever is meant for me will come to me ig
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Ri says:
March 4, 2021 at 3:46 am
My star sing is also an Aries with a cancer rising!!! I’m 26 and I don’t even bother seeking out for someone because I just feel I’ll get sick of them or I won’t be good enough. And I feel it’s very hard for me to understand who I am. I feel like two different people. I’m either headstrong, fiery and very confident and out going OR every now and then I feel very emotional, self-conscious and I just want to be alone. I really hate having cancer as my rising, it just confuses me about myself. (My moon sign is an Aries tho)
Holly says:
October 21, 2020 at 10:15 am
I’m glad you said that because I am seeing a Capricorn man and I am an Aries woman… I struggle with him because he seems not emotional .. if I cry and hurt I have to tell him what I need and then he will do it ……. but if I do t tell him he dose not have a clue … like today I drove to him 30 min and the road was blocked and I couldn’t get around it in time so I called him and most guys maybe would say where can I meet you when I’m ready but he had work and was running late so I get it … it was maybe 2 hours later he finally said thanks for driving that far to see me it made me smile knowing you did that … it’s some work but I think when they do like you it makes you happy that the are stable and very good parents .. also very hard working .. they Handel problems different I worry about things and over think and he says just let it go .. so I’m wats maybe they can keep Aries woman grounded … they do prioritize so never feel like your not important it’s just they are geared forwards the bigger picture in life and that’s family and providing for their family
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Rachel's Heart says:
April 18, 2021 at 9:50 pm
Don’t do it! Both my ex-husbands are capricorns. Good in bed and flattering but boring and argumentative. Just my bs experiences but hope it helps!
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hayley says:
January 11, 2019 at 1:14 pm
Libra is unpredictable and too frank. also indecisive
Leo are sword tongue people & innocent pure heart.
Virgo are too overly problematic about everything but Great organization.
Gemini are playful & unpredictable, seems wont get serious & fixed.
Sagittarius have own world & very outgoing. happy nature.
Capricorn deep person, & plans everything.
Based on my experience, suggestion only…
Capricorn and Aries are Great Compatible.
Attention seeking is truly nature of Aries.
Capricorn stability in emotions reassures a pamper seeking Aries.
Aries couldnt feel safety with playful nature of Gemini
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Aakangsha Dahal says:
February 21, 2019 at 8:47 am
finally m feeling good…reading ur experience…. Above… Please I request you tell me little more about aries and capricorn…
I’m aries
And my boyfriend is Capricorn…
I’m 19 and he is 23…
We are in 7 years relationship.. and now m very afraid to loosing him…. Please help me please….
I hope for your reply…
Reply
none of your buisness says:
February 26, 2019 at 10:13 am
I really like this libra he is super cute to me and makes me happy we have known each other for 3 years what should I do go out with him or forget him
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Elsa says:
November 3, 2019 at 1:45 pm
Libra man like make his best to make you happy and crazy for him but at the end probably will abandom you w out explaniation..that happened to me 5 dayd ago…
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Kesha M Kandow says:
February 27, 2019 at 1:51 pm
Yes go for it… I’m an Aries too.
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Queen Chyna says:
March 22, 2019 at 6:26 pm
I am an Aries woman and I am happily married with children to a Sag man. This is my third marriage. The first was to a Gemini and it lasted a while but we were only compatible sexually. The second was to a Pisces and he was wayyy to sensitive for me so that ended very quickly. My husband now is my soulmate and we first started 19 going on 20 years ago. We argue and it is over almost instantly. He understands me and we can finish each other’s secrets so I said all that to say I believe the chart.
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Christ says:
April 18, 2019 at 6:14 pm
I’m a Gemini my girl is an Aries , I’m interestedly about what you said cause it’s seems that Gemini -Aries aren’t common , what didn’t work with the Gemini guy , if please you can share
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Aries Girl says:
April 21, 2019 at 1:18 pm
I am a Strong Aries woman. 44 been married for 21 years to an Aquarius. My mother is a Gemini for friendship Gemini is great for a relationship! I was always the rider leading the horse. Aries are very intelligent and need someone, with that match. Looks mean nothing to the intellect of an Aries women. I like a man that is Masuline and if my behavior is of poor taste to speak up. With Gemini, they just can not overpower an Aries! They lack the mystery and fire-drive of the Arian. I married Aquarius? Someone whom I deemed had more self control than I and With a mystery and a depth that always keeps the Aries, guessing? All friends family and acquaintances, admire our love and admiration for each other and want it for themselves. For Gemini men you are either dominant and if you are we live it, if intelligent we love that to. But if you’re or dominate and not intellectual, there is no challenge for the Arian women. I dated a dominant Gemini who was the love of my life. He also crushed me. Then a non dominant, idiot who I could not respect for lack of self control. He was no match! However The Aquarius dominant and intelligent with a calm reserve has my interest peaked for 24 years! We are inseparable. In my adult years I came across that Gemini who was dominant then in my life. Broken and non-dominant! Boy was I confused at this! No longer crushed, but sad that someone had crushed him. Once he broke my heart. He searched for me everywhere, but I was long gone. I waited years, on him. Then he finds me at 40 and was in such bad shape, pining. After I told him I had forgiven him. But was Happily married. He wanted to compete! Which I would not allow! He married a girl with the same name as mine. He also could not accept his defeat. Though he said he knew for sure. I was way out of his league! That he had looks and charm but could never give me the life my Aquarius had! What he did not know? Was I had given my Aquarius that life. Happily because without him, I would have never challenged myself to the max! After excepting one call for an apology. For what he did to me! He started crawling out of his depression and tried getting back into shape to compete. The next week he died from a pulmonary embolism! I was in shock! He was faithfully married and seemed to love his wife. But after finding me, he wanted to walk away from it all, for me! But I would have none of that. I love my Aquarius and would never cheat! He promised if I just gave him 5 minute to apologize by phone, and that it was just friends. By the end of the call I realized one sentence, that disclosed the true nature of the call. To win me back! I truly felt bad for him. Because he had no chance! I respect and love my husband so much. The life we built and the faithfulness to each other we shared! My Gemini was a cheater a charming cheater. If he ever knew me at all he would have known. Morals and faithful and true. This is what I held dear, this was what I found in my Aquarius! Desperate is not sexy! It never has been or will be! Unfaithfulness is a moral problem, one I have no desire for! Almost every guy I dated said “I was out of there league” which I found very odd. Because I was attractive and smart? Love does not have a league! It’s a mutual understanding, respect and love! In my 20’s people thought I was rich? I was broke! I got grants for college and lived alone! My Dad had money and I was Daddy’s girl, I became a success at what made me happy in my life! I was not a product of my dads money. He taught me how to make it. How to look like a millionaire with nothing. How to keep your morals high and never settle for less than the best! Because of what he taught me, maybe I was out of there league. I married a man that did not come with money. But together, we complimented each other. With confidence and unshakable morals-respect and love! We are still inseparable and nothing can shake it, or take it! The size of my home and the value of my car! Means nothing, love built that! Love is not a league! It is patient and kind, it is enduring and true. It is knowing, you do not have to worry about what you better half is doing. Because you know them, respect them and never have to question there loyalty. If you do that’s not love!
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Debbie says:
July 24, 2019 at 6:45 am
Aries geminis are too much alike that could be scary. Iam a Aries. Leader strong ,speak my mind, tell it how it is , I think Gemini similar.
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Elizabeth says:
August 4, 2019 at 10:12 am
For me I am an Aries woman and the two greatest loves of my life have been Gemini’s. One of them in particular I have loved since I was a little girl and still love very much to this very day and I know I always will. Can’t describe the level of love I have for him. Best way for me to put it is soulmate so it’s surprising that Gemini is least common, at least for me it’s surprising
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Brian Sykes says:
August 13, 2019 at 10:45 am
Thanks for the book
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Elsa says:
November 3, 2019 at 1:48 pm
As an Aries woman I just want to find a match that last for ever…
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Theo Basaki says:
November 15, 2020 at 1:51 am
Hey,I am Aries man,if think we can try to give chance,am ready to yes if you say yes!
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Sesame says:
March 22, 2021 at 2:31 pm
Hi Theo
Lets try, I’m an Aries woman
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Mishi says:
March 22, 2019 at 7:27 pm
I am an aries and i am looking for an aries man or aquarius man ….
I am divorced already with a leo man it was terrible experiance… Trust me
And write me your contact if someone is aries or aquarius
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Mr johnny says:
March 31, 2019 at 10:07 pm
I am an aries
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Irene says:
April 23, 2019 at 2:28 pm
Am an Aries woman
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Adeyinka says:
January 28, 2020 at 10:51 am
Am an aries man.contact me on +2347060898626
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Anonymous7 says:
April 4, 2019 at 9:25 am
I just need to know cos i am an arian but i love a leo guy..
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ahmed says:
February 12, 2020 at 1:53 pm
I am an aries man. Contact me on
[email protected]
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Enny says:
March 13, 2020 at 4:39 am
I’m down to earth man looking for the same in a
Aries woman, my contact is +16463666459.
Hope to hear from you.
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Sammy says:
March 25, 2019 at 7:06 pm
I am a Libra woman, rising and moon are both Pisces, whatever that means. The love of my life was an Aries man, for 6 years we were together. I still love him after 12 years, but it just didn’t work. I left. This is pretty darn accurate. He was married one time, and she was an Aries. I think the only reason that they divorced was because she cheated on him. But they were a good match, I used to be jealous of their relationship even when I had him. They have a really good relationship to this day, and I don’t talk to him at all, even though I still love him after all these years. Does that make sense?
So, I’m reading this article because I swore off all Aries men. But, I have this friend who is one of my closest friends, and I barely found out that he’s an Aries! Born on March 26th, on the cusp? Dammit!
I don’t expect anything beyond a friendship, but I’m really shocked that he is an Aries.
I’m totally attracted to him in every way, so it seems like I’m not the only one struggling with this mad attraction to an Aries. Opposites attract eh?
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chris says:
March 26, 2019 at 3:36 pm
Yikes! Seeing the list is shocking.
I’m an aries guy with a capricorn guy.
I know that in many ways we are so different.
There are aspects of his life that I find intriguing.
Like how he is very practical/grounded and observant.
I am selfish and subjective with a lot of passion.
He can also be very selfish too.
I’m more into Bravo and he likes to watch the news.
We feel the difference in our lives but yet we are great friends and partners in business.
Also, our rising signs are pisces and virgo. So those two are kind of compatible.
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Mr johnny says:
March 31, 2019 at 10:11 pm
I am an aries ……contact me…+2348144041469
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Talktomaze says:
April 8, 2019 at 7:02 am
I am an aries guy ….. Contact me… +2348063149375
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Nova says:
April 12, 2019 at 4:23 pm
I’m a Aries girl, and im attracted to a Taurus.. is that good, because we both like eachother.
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Leslie says:
April 25, 2019 at 12:50 am
I’m a Taurus gal and was in a relationship with an Aries guy for 20 years 5 1/2 of which were married. I would love to go on but it’s a very long love hate, trust no trust relationship. After our divorce we stayed together 14 1/2 more years. But then sadly we separated but yet we still love each other but just can’t live together. There’s not a day that goes by that I don’t think about him and what he might be doing or who if anyone he might be doing it with. I don’t feel as if I could ever love another man again. I wish the love I have for him now is the love I had for him in the beg
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Leslie says:
April 25, 2019 at 1:03 am
Beginning. But I know that we’ll never be together again. Anyways I would like to know is it every man or is it just Aries men that can just turn off there feelings and there relationship as if you never existed and it never was. Because I tell you what it is a tremendous sadness and heartbreaking heartless and selfish act to just up and disappear with out even a good bye.
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Hawa says:
July 8, 2019 at 9:41 am
It all Aries both man and woman when they are done with you it look like they have never seeming you before. I am a Aries my ex boyfriend want to be just friend with me and I don’t do that. If I am done I am done for good and I don’t care how you live your life or how you look now. But it also hard for a aries person to just get over a relationship but when they do you will never get them back or their attention.
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ReeRee says:
March 24, 2021 at 9:38 am
This is so true. We go through our heartbreak pretty hard but when we get our feelings in order we don’t look back. The thrill is just gone. So When its over its OVER! Dont care if we got kids together or not. We just dont like to go backwards. At least that’s how I think. We don’t like to waste our time.
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Feras Al-Mukhtar says:
May 6, 2019 at 7:57 am
I’m a scorpion looking to dating again and the stats here say I shouldn’t try to get with an Aries. That’s a shame because there is a potential date with an Aries lady. Oh well
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Rose says:
June 15, 2019 at 11:08 am
I am an Aries woman, living with a Scorpio man… The sex is out of this world, but the rest of the relationship is complicated because we are from totally different worlds… He is extremely clingy and dependent… But listen, just keep your mind open…
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wondering says:
October 18, 2019 at 10:56 am
Rose, I am an Aries and have been married to a scorpio for 5 years been in a relationshiop 9 years. I agree with you except scorpio are very manipulative and controlling personalities. My kind hearted nature is just seeing all of this and im not sure i can deal with it.
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Kay says:
July 22, 2019 at 11:10 am
I am an Aries as was my ex husband and my present. I agree that Aries are hardheaded and we want our way so I know that’s why there were fights but o think one can act different than another based on where they fall on the Aries timeline. My first husband lied, cheated and manipulated me where the one I have now is nothing like that.
Because Aries can be petty, I did get even with my ex husband by having him willingly cut off all of his long dark hair that he loved so much. He can’t grow it back unless he wants to go thru awkward stages since it’s naturally very curly and I was the one who was able to straighten it for him. LoL I left him 2 days later and replaced him with one of the sweetest
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Rahmon says:
August 23, 2019 at 12:08 am
Can april 8 married october 7
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Enny says:
March 13, 2020 at 4:42 am
Yes they can
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[email protected] says:
September 17, 2019 at 12:11 am
I am Cancer and my man is Aries I love him very much
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Pepper L. says:
September 19, 2019 at 10:30 am
I’m an Aries man that’s loves a Virgo unconditionally. We had some disagreements here and there but we got past it. We are like day and night but where I lack he picks up and where he’s lacking I’ll pick up. I’m spontaneous and will go a whole day without planning it but he plans everything my the minute. Very organized and clean and I love that about him. I hate that I can’t read his mind and I’m feel like he don’t tell me everything or share things with me that I will like to know. I want to propose but I wanna know what f this a forever thing or its temporary. I feel like we are soulmates actually.
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Brin says:
September 24, 2019 at 12:39 am
I am an Aries dating an Aries and she believes a lot in this stuff I really don’t care. What she says we are probably wasting our time being with each other because we are both Aries. I would like to know what people think .
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Jason Dziedzic says:
December 7, 2019 at 10:29 pm
Omg that’s crazy I agree with the Aries an Scorpio not being compatible mainly because of both wanting to win or be in charge lmao I have traveled far in this life’s journey dated an relationships with a decent number of demon ranging of all over the zodiac signs but to be crazy honest being born under the full moon made me something special because I’m engaged to a Scorpio been together for four years I must say the fighting made me a much brighter person an relationship together stronger an full of incredible amount of affection an love. She loves me intensely. I let her be the one to win sometimes it becomes a issue a long last word issue but hey I’ll play the loser everything else we share an have is amazing. I’m happy god has blessed me with my talents gifts an angels that are in random forms. My Scorpio has honestly saved me I don’t care who wants to take charge I already know myself an all my intellect An personal status of my mind body an soul
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Jason Dziedzic says:
December 7, 2019 at 10:36 pm
Hey Aries like a challenge an to show the world as a leader of the zodiacs anything is possible with love once understanding is accomplished. I believe the life journeys and paths creat acceptance an understanding in our lives to help bring happiness easier that we all generally want love an acceptance to be wanted an needed. To be a true man is to be there even when the worst An never looking up. Have faith because it will enlighten an illuminate the real an true that is in front of us. Well it is possible the reward for a harder begin in a relationship of a Aries man an. A Scorpio women becomes Immensely strong. That stupid arguments become irrelevant. LOVE WILL ALWAYS WIN THANK U GOD
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Vanessa says:
December 18, 2019 at 5:48 am
I’m a Taurus woman with an Aries man and I want to get rid of him. We have been together for 9 years and he is out of control.
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Enny says:
March 13, 2020 at 4:47 am
I’m down to earth man looking for the same in a
Taurus woman, my contact is +16463666459.
Hope to hear from you.I’m an Libra
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Theo Basaki says:
November 15, 2020 at 1:55 am
Hello I am Aries man am 26 years old,I think we try to give chance,am ready to say yes if you say yes
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Siri Addison says:
December 27, 2019 at 3:23 pm
Married to a Cancer for 16 years and finally ready to face reality that we are not compatible.
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Chelsey parsons says:
January 11, 2020 at 1:05 pm
I am a aries women in a 7 month relationship with another female that’s a gemini I can say it has been rough but got through the worst also she is truley amazing though we are extremely compatible in alot of ways she sees me for who I truley am and loves me unconditionally we fight but we learn to move forward from the problem
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Fred says:
January 22, 2020 at 11:38 am
I am a Taurus born on the he cuffed Taurus and Aries in love with a gorgeous Aries woman I love you very thing about her she awesome
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Zaheer says:
March 17, 2020 at 4:01 am
Hi am Aries Man And am weeling to marry a real life partner and am also married man with 2kids
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Rosa says:
July 6, 2020 at 11:11 pm
Am an Aries can say my relationship with a cancer for six is a stressing one have ever been in. Came to meet Gemini he loves adventure and nice but slow in decision making , which is a bit boring to me, but that a man can say have ever loved in my life though we can never get married. looking for a Gemini for a second chance.
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Tarns says:
August 23, 2020 at 8:06 pm
Aries woman, with Scorpio Male for almost 10 years. 4 kids and still happy.
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Theo Basaki says:
November 15, 2020 at 2:01 am
Hey ,i’am Aries man ,I am 26 years old,am Just looking for someone who we can match!
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Paula Jones says:
December 15, 2020 at 1:20 am
I enjoy being an Aries woman it’s so enjoyable. I’m ready for a life partner who gets me…yuh know?
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Rilee says:
January 11, 2021 at 9:45 pm
I’m an Aries and so is my Fiancé
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Shilpa says:
February 20, 2021 at 7:14 am
I’m an Aries girl born at last degree (29) I want a good companion..
I have judged few Virgo for their overly cautious mind that doesn’t allow them to take a change Or risk, and little little unnecessary matters..,cancer for their emotional foolishness to excess to tolerate them, pieces stupid ever and good for nothing fool, libra for their excess balance in life that they can’t go ahead for good, if a libra is born poor will die poor,
Scorpio for their lies can kill an innocent, they also make prey of the innocent people, they can create traps.
Leo, they praise themselves too much, too prideful for no reason, most fakest in reality. An Aries specially who is born from 1degree to 25degree. Utterly selfish enough for anything. My ex lover was an Aries born at 3 degree was selfish enough to keep me hungry and fill his belly, I was living like rags… Even he warned me not to pursue further studies to save his money while he was not that much poor. The cost of my study was too less to bother.
Sagittarius, can’t be trusted.
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Sanchita says:
February 20, 2021 at 7:45 am
I am Aries woman.. married to cancer man for 13 years. We are completely different in all aspects. I find him boring and slow sometimes. But, I also find him secretly caring and honestly loving me all these years. He is too much tolerant to my Aries tantrums also. Several times we parted for small intervals, but again and again I fall in love with this sensitive moody and cute man. He has the heart to treat me equal of a man.. never letting my Aries ego to hurt.
Reply
Emmitt says:
March 1, 2021 at 8:47 pm
Very curious how this logic works for queer couples?
Reply
Brynn says:
March 16, 2021 at 12:31 am
Very surprising, I’m an Aries woman and was in a long relationship with a Leo man. I hate that I clung to it for so long as it was the worst! He was selfish, narcissistic and put me off leos for life.
Reply
Jane says:
March 21, 2021 at 10:33 pm
I’m about to marry my Aries man. I largely despair of our relationship. I’m largely unhappy. However, I’ve been married before to a man who was supposed to be my ‘most compatible’ sign. Both in sun and moon! Our marriage failed dramatically! We were young. Had I known what I know now, we’d have consolidated and got re-married. My ex-husband passed away though. So I never got the chance to put things right. Something I have to live with until the day I die. We’d met when I was 10 and he was 5. There was this weird, powerful feeling in me. Like I HAD to protect him. I was drawn to him like a magnet to steel. He became the most treasured thing in my life from that moment on. We’d known each other for 20 years when we got married. When he died, I knew that I would marry an Aries. Didn’t know who and I didn’t know why. I just get these instructions from within, from my deep down somewhere, my subconscious self? It sends instructions to my brain and I’m like, “Oh! OK?! Do I get a say in this? No?! But WHY??!! Why does he have to be an an Aries though?? Everywhere I’m reading is telling me that we’re not compatible though?? What have we both done to deserve this? We’re both good people! Can you cut us some slack? We make each other unhappy!
An Aries is my opposite sign! I can see why! HE’S A NIGHTMARE!! To him, I’M A NIGHTMARE!! I’ve offered him the chance to leave, but he refuses!
Maybe I should show him this article and find him a beautiful Aries woman. If she’s good looking and enjoys running and adventuring around the North Wales mountains and hills (I mean, who possibly couldn’t?!) in the UK it might persuade him? I’m a bit terrified of losing him too, as I actually do love him massively! Our sun signs are Aries & Libra and our moon signs are Aries (Yep! He’s DOUBLE Aries ♈️ !!) and Pisces. My Libra & Pisces don’t make for a good compatibility for the future. Doomed all round! What do you all think? Run like the wind or stick with this and reep the rewards?
Thank you for your feedback in advance ☀️☀️☀️♈️♎️♈️♓️
Reply
Tiffany says:
March 23, 2021 at 8:22 pm
Why is there so many Virgo haters here lol I am a proud Virgo 33yr old woman and I married a Aries man 34yrs we have been married 15years and 5 kids later we are still together …. I wouldn’t say we have any problems outside of normal bickers .I will admit I am picky and like things my way ,but my way works and if I must say Aries need that in there life since they are so go with the flow and impulsive . Lol Our biggest bicker is parenting I’m more strict and he isn’t he’s like a giant kid lol not a bad thing ,but they tend do be disrespectful in a way I would prefer not to allow like hitting him (playing ) and screaming back at him ……. but that’s not nothing nearly close to bringing us to divorce we are both playful with each other and like to have fun …. and we love each other And at the end of the day I think over all that is what matters most not some silly horoscope sign
Reply
Monik says:
March 30, 2021 at 1:21 pm
I am an Aries woman and the man that I love in my life is an Aries man, when he came to my life, he changed everything, he gives me so much passion, exitement. And the best on bed, it is like fireworks.
Reply
Toweee says:
March 30, 2021 at 8:53 pm
I’m an Aries Women with a Virgo Male and it is kinda tough? especially when we get on the topic of my personal emotional needs. he’s more practical with how he goes about it, attempting to comfort me comes off as him dissing my feeling when i also just need emotions back. It takes us a minute to actually sit down and talk about certain problems but when we do? we’re both very happy in the end. and feel even closer. We have been through ALLOT and still bunk heads once in a while but we are also so drawn to each other for some reason, we always make it work at the end of the day. I’m very happy with my Virgo male as an Aries women and i can’t wait to prove everyone wrong. My patience is thin as an Aries to be with a Virgo but as long as i have him by the end of the day, i use everyday as a learning curve for us both :)) Comments against Aries and Virgos make sense, like how i hear Virgo’s aren’t good for Aries? i also feel like with the right Virgo, every conflict is just a building block for a stronger relationship between the two.
Reply
Zenechea says:
July 19, 2021 at 5:40 am
Hey, how are you doing? I dated a Virgo as well but I left him as soon as I realised that I would hate myself whenever I’m still in a relationship with him which wasn’t healthy for my mental wellbeing. I hope you’re doing okay.
Reply
Flora barnett says:
April 7, 2021 at 2:51 am
I’m Scorpio woman my ex was a Aries man I still love him up till now, he’s with a Sagittarius woman. At first the relationship with him was lovely as time goes on it became a living hell. I need advice I’m depressed. Chat me on what’sapp +2348073504450
Reply
Zenechea says:
July 19, 2021 at 5:32 am
Hi everyone. I am an Aries woman who dated a Virgo, knew him for about 3 years but dated for about 2 and a half years. He’d spoil me by giving me endless compliments and lots of gifts during the earlier days of dating. But everything changed when we had our first fight, he started being very passive about everything and wouldn’t really open up about his true feelings to me. He’d hold grudges, shut me off whenever I open up about my feelings and becomes very manipulative overall. I left him after having an on and off relationship for about a year. I still miss him because he was my best friend before we dated.
Reply
Rita says:
August 25, 2021 at 9:31 am
Hi everyone. I’m an Aries woman that’s been married to an Aries man and we also have the same birthday. We’ve been married 44.5 yrs. We always had a great relationship and always had great sex and now I’m 61 and he’s 63 and we still have explosive sex. We are both very impulsive and we just get up and say lets go here or there whatever and we go. We always have enjoyed each other. God has been good to us.
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Multichain Cluster stops mining
+2 votes
Hi
We discovered an issue yesterday whereby are test cluster stopped mining. It had been running for about a week without issue beforehand. After a number of failed attempts to get the nodes mining again we cleared it down and started it up fresh, after a short space of time the issue occurred again.
Our working theory at the minute is:
Our automated tests create new addresses/keys per run and were assigning these new addresses mining permission. The only mining parameter we had changed on our setup was admin-consensus-mine which was set to 0. Is it possible that all these additional addresses/keys on the node were affecting the rules governing mining, specifically related to the mining-diversity setting?
I have now tuned this down to zero and keeping an eye on the newly created cluster.
A couple of questions:
Do you think this was the issue, and if so then there's probably some guidance required for the proper configuration of your cluster with respect to the mining config vs nodes etc?
Secondly, how could we have recovered from this. In the end we cleared down the cluster because we couldn't get it mining. All transactions were just sitting in the mempool. If this happened in a production environment, blowing it away is not really an option :)
Assuming the issue was caused by these additional mining permissions, would revoking them have recovered the cluster?
If this is a misconfiguration issue rather than a bug/problem, some sort of log or message from the nodes would have been really useful given the amount of time we spent trying to resolve the issue.
If you think this shouldn't have been an issue, have you any other suggestions as to what the problem might have been. I backed up the volume of one of the nodes and should be able to start it up again to investigate further?
Marty
mining-diversity
mining
asked Sep 6, 2017 by marty
edited Sep 6, 2017 by marty
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1 Answer
0 votes
The mining-diversity setting defines the proportion of permissioned miners who have to participate in a round-robin pattern in order to render a chain (or fork) valid. This is the mechanism for Byzantine Fault Tolerance, or preventing minority control over the network. So if you are assigning mining permissions to new addresses, but the private keys for those new addresses aren't owned by any active online nodes, then you would indeed expect mining to freeze up once there are no longer enough actively mining addresses to reach the mining-diversity setting.
In terms of how to recover from this problem, there is a rollback mechanism in MultiChain, which (by design) requires significant cooperation between admins and mining nodes. We'll be documenting this as part of more general production and maintenance guidelines over the coming months.
answered Sep 7, 2017 by MultiChain
If we revoked the mining permissions would this have got the nodes going again, or would those revokes never get actioned because the associated transactions would never get mined :)
commented Sep 7, 2017 by marty
The rules for who can mine a block are based on the transactions in the previous blocks only. So I'm afraid this would not help in your case.
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Grapes, raisins, sultanas and currants are all potentially poisonous to dogs. Find out what to do if your dog has eaten any of these foods.
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0.998236 |
The 1902 Pirates team has the best winning percentage in the franchises 129 year history but are they the best Pirates team ever? They are one of only two Pirates teams to win 100 games and the other team, the 1909 Pirates, played 12 more games in their season. They have the lowest loss total in franchise history which is amazing partly due to the fact the 1882 team played 63 less games, and 22 other seasons they also played less games than the 1902 team. So the question is, are the 1902 Pirates the best team the franchise has ever put together.
Tommy Leach
To start with, the team had the best player in franchise history, Honus Wagner, but he had a run of 14 straight seasons in which he hit .300 with the Pirates, so that means 13 other teams also had him as well including the 1909 team which won the first World Series title for the franchise.
They also had the franchises best manager ever as far as wins and winning percentage, Fred Clarke, plus he was a Hall of Fame player too. Just like Wagner though he was also there for the 1909 season as well as the other two pennants the team won in 1901 and 1903.
The pitching staff was deep with future Hall of Famer Jack Chesbro leading the way with 28 wins in 1902. They also had three very good pitchers in Sam Leever, Deacon Phillippe and Jesse Tannehill who won a combined 55 games that year and in their career they went a combined 580-326.
The 5th starter, Ed Doheny had a great season but he is a tough pitcher to figure out. Was he good only because of the team he was on or did he just seem bad prior to joining the Pirates due to the fact he was playing for a bad team? In 1899 Doheny while with the Giants issued 158 walks, he also led the league in hit batters and wild pitches while also allowing more than a hit per inning pitched. In seven season in NY he was 37-69 4.26 with a 1.61 WHIP. He came to the Pirates in late 1901 and would win 38 games in just 56 starts, 57 less starts than it took him to win one less game for the Giants.
The team offense led the National League in runs, hits, doubles, triples, batting average, slugging and on base %. They finished 2nd in walks, home runs and stolen bases. They also had the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the league. The Pirates scored 142 more runs than the next nearest team, exactly one run per game played.
On the team pitching side, the Chicago Cubs had a lower team ERA as the Pirates finished 2nd in the NL, 2.19 to 2.30 overall. The difference is that the Cubs allowed 190 unearned runs so they actually gave up 65 more total runs than the Pirates did. Now this was the deadball era, so with knowing that this next number won’t sound as impressive but the Pirates pitching staff allowed just 4 home runs all season. They led the league in strikeouts and the starters threw 21 complete game shutouts plus one combined shutout.
Pittsburgh scored 334 more runs than they allowed on the year. The next closest team in positive run differential was the Cincinnati Reds who scored 66 more runs than they gave up, giving the Pirates a 268 run lead in that category. The played great at home (56-15) and on the road (47-21). They were very consistent as they never lost more than eight games in any month of the season.
Among league leaders the Pirates had three players in the top 6 in batting average with Ginger Beaumont leading the league with a .357 mark. In slugging % they had five guys in the leagues top ten led by Honus Wagner. Wagner was also the NL leader in on base %, runs scored, doubles and runs batted in. In fact, the Pirates had the top four players in runs scored with Wagner (105), Clarke (103), Beaumont (100) and third baseman Tommy Leach added 97 more.
For the pitchers, three of the big four starters were among the ERA leaders. The Pirates had three of the leagues seven 20 game winners. All four of the big four starters were in the top 5 in the league in winning percentage. The only player who wasn’t a Pirate in that group was Ed Poole who went 12-4 for the Reds. He actually started the year as an extra pitcher for the Pirates before they sold him to the Reds. Among games started, only Chesbro was in the top 10 so it is possible that the reason the team pitched so well is that they had so much depth that no one was getting overworked and therefore never pitching tired.
Now it is obvious by those stats that the team dominated the league in the NL and they had the best record, but how do they compare against other Pirates teams with those totals.
For runs scored they are just one run outside of the top 20 in franchise history. Four of the top five on that list are from the top years in baseball history for runs scored, 1893-94 and 1929-30. The other one was the 1925 team which would be one of five world series winning teams in franchise history. The most comparable years would be the 1901 team which scored one more run in 2 less games and the 1903 team which scored 18 more runs in one less game. No other teams in the top 25 were from the era designated as the deadball era.
For runs allowed we see this 1902 team near the top. Only three Pirates teams ever allowed less runs and one was during the strike-shortened 1981 season. Another was during the 1882 season, first in franchise history and they played just 79 games that year. The team that allowed the lowest amount of runs was the 1918 team, right at the end of the deadball era and a season that was shortened by the war. They allowed 28 fewer runs than the 1902 team but played 16 less games.
Here is where we find the most comparable team because the 1901 and 1903 teams were not that close in runs allowed. The 1909 Pirates allowed 447 runs, just 7 more than the 1902 team but they played 12 more games so the pitching was slightly better. That team was near the middle of the pack for runs though scoring 701 and did not have near the run differential that the 1902 squad did. They didn’t have the lead over the 2nd place team in runs scored that the 1902 team did either. Their pitchers also didn’t allow the fewest runs in the league that year (they were 2nd) and they finished just 6.5 games ahead of the Cubs while the 1902 team won their division by 27.5 games.
One thing about that big lead is it allowed the 1902 team to throw out a 24 year old rookie with no experience near the end of the year named Harvey Cushman. A local kid that couldn’t do much harm when he pitches for a team with a 20 game lead in late August, Cushman made 4 starts and the Pirates lost four times. He allowed 31 runs in just 25 innings while the Pirates would score just 8 runs in those games. Taking that into account it makes the run differential the team had that much more impressive.
When you take everything into consideration, the team record, the dominance over the league, the consistency, the complete package of hitting, fielding, speed and pitching, you really have to put this team right at the top of all-time Pirates teams. Comparing teams from different eras is always tough but these guys surely made a good argument for their case and 109 seasons later it’s hard to find a team that made a better claim to that top spot
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August 12, 2011 1:23 pm
1) 1902 2) 1960 3) 1971 4) 1979 5) 1972 6) 1909 7) 1925 8) 1927 9) 1901 10) 1966 The best Pirates teams EVER
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0.998596 |
It was in Hawthorn, of all middle-class suburban places, that I saw them. And where my dislike of the full-face burqa turned to loathing.
And I hate myself for it, because my reaction goes against so much that I’ve taught my children.
We were in a hardware store and the two women ahead of us at the cash register were clad head-to-toe in a billowing black tent. Even their hands were hidden, in black gloves.
Only the eyes peeked out, as if through a mail slot. And one had even that gap veiled.
They could see out, but I couldn’t see in.
There was no way I could tell what age they were or anything about them at all. I couldn’t tell if they were friendly or snooty. I couldn’t even tell if they smiled back.
It was like they had no identity, no personality at all.
To me, it seemed like they were prisoners trapped behind a huge black wall, cut off from all social interaction. They didn’t invite any contact, and seemed unable to fully respond to any.
Sally Morrell / Sun Herald
Wonder how long before Sally is denounced as a ‘racist’ and ‘Islamophobe’? Many of us have realised how dangerous the ‘Iron veil’ of Islam is in a modern secular country; let’s hope more people start to realise it.
However, according to a senior Iranian cleric, women who wear ‘revealing’ clothing cause earth quakes, so it seems women in burqas will save us from earthquakes! Who knew?
A SENIOR Iranian cleric says women who wear revealing clothing and behave promiscuously are to blame for earthquakes.
Iran is one of the world’s most earthquake-prone countries, and the cleric’s unusual explanation for why the earth shakes follows a prediction by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that a quake is certain to hit Tehran and that many of its 12 million inhabitants should relocate.
“Many women who do not dress modestly … lead young men astray, corrupt their chastity and spread adultery in society, which (consequently) increases earthquakes,” Hojatoleslam Kazem Sedighi said.
Perth now
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Comments
localyokel says
27 April 2010 at 7:46 am
It should be interesting to see how Islamic women in France will react. Their bizarre dress codes have recently been outlawed there.
Reply
ibnsahr says
26 April 2010 at 10:50 pm
What happened to Geert Wilders article?
Reply
mike says
23 April 2010 at 5:12 am
So, now the liberal elete that make up the media is now facing reality, well suck it up Sally, because it is people like you and the odious Phillip Adams and co who condemn people like us who never hated any other race (once) but now do because of your treachery to your own race of people and your country. As one comment said, it's all very well these lefties advocating this mass immigration of the 3rd world into western countries…until it hits their own neighbourhoods, then it is a different story (for the journalist's, no pun intended) In other words these left winged snobs have looked down upon us calling us 'waycist's' and 'rednecked bogans' but when reality hits and it is them being confronted with a new majority race…
Reply
Neal says
23 April 2010 at 3:02 am
I wonder about safety regulations.If these two legged postal boxes enter a bank why don't they remove the gadget for service as a motorcyclist must,and when (if they do)go for a license are they exempy from the mandatory license photo? I think this is reverse discrimination.
Reply
Dave Tierney says
22 April 2010 at 9:53 pm
The other day in Mt Lawley, I saw a woman in a full-face burka driving a car, I wonder if this is legal and what would happer to this woman if she killed a child because her vision was restricted? Another question that no one seems able to answer is why is our culture forced to change because new arrivals refuse to fit in. After all, if I go to another country, I try no to offend the locals but no one gives a damn about our way of life.
Reply
John says
22 April 2010 at 12:52 pm
How do you know they were women they could have been either 2 men in burkas set of 2 bombs in Pakistan and in england the failed attack they escaped wearing them
The police can not ask them to remove it either . the Rev Fred Nile in Sydney wanted them banned and was howled down by the Carr Stste Labor Party
Reply
Shockadelic says
22 April 2010 at 5:10 am
I wonder what causes volcanic eruptions. Not too many bikinis in Iceland, eh?
What I find perplexing are the Muslim women in flamboyant colourfully patterned "Islamic" clothes.
Are you virtuous or decadent? Make up your damn mind!
Reply
Ann says
22 April 2010 at 4:56 am
Islam4UK: Out With UK law, in With Islamic Law | Global Terrorism
http://www.rightsidenews.com/200810052144/global-…
Reply
localyokel says
22 April 2010 at 7:56 am
Governments are allowing Islamic fundamentalists to enter our country to cause trouble because that will take the focus away from government incompetence and corruption.
Isn’t it a coincidence how ISLAMIC HATRED IS ALWAYS DIRECTED TOWARD COMMON PEOPLE? Not the actual officials who they have a gripe with. It’s so obvious that governments feel very safe and have nothing to fear for themselves.
HAS AN ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST COME BACK FROM THE DEAD TO TELL? Life shall always keep changing and evolving not matter what. We are all mere atom particles in space.
Reply
localyokel says
21 April 2010 at 11:18 pm
I have witnessed on several occasions, women clad in black fabric head-to-toe, eyes only visible through their burqa. One incident a woman wore dark sunglasses, so nothing was visible.
I have seen elderly Australians get a fright from such bizarre attire. The wearers were quite tall. Who knows if they were women as they could have been males for all anyone knows.
Australians must have their faces exposed when they enter a bank for security reasons. Why are these people exempt from abiding our laws? Maybe all other Australians should start covering up as well.
It's no longer, 'When in Rome, do as in Rome.' for Australia. "AUSTRALIANS HAVE NO BALLS." This was the response from an Islamic male who had been interviewed by the media a couple of years ago, when caught ripping off our system.
Hojatoleslam Kazem Sedighi has not had sex with a woman otherwise he would have realized by now that it takes two to tango. Someone should inform him that adultery in society is committed by both sexes who are choose to do so. Clothing does not prevent nor cause adultery, it is the human condition that does. Blaming immoral women for earthquakes must go back to some ancient pre existing belief of Mother Earth worship.
Reply
Don Redman says
21 April 2010 at 10:47 pm
In 1972 Whitlam, (Goof Witless) started all this multi-racialism and mass immigration from the third world. That is the deliberate dismantling of Australian Anglo Celtic society. Many of these new immigrants come from former British colonised countries, or are countries that have been defeated by the British in war.As a result they have a simmering dislike for Anglo Celtic people. They have a forest growing out of their shoulders.Its pay back time. As a result many Anglo Celtic Australians have been on the receiving end of serious assaults and even death. Thanks Gough!(and Fraser)
Reply
Ann says
22 April 2010 at 4:38 am
The outrageous truth slips out: Labour cynically plotted to transform the entire make-up of Britain without telling
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1222977…
How Labour drowned Britain in immigrants
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/ind…
Reply
marlene says
22 April 2010 at 7:53 pm
Gough Whitlam did not cause the multi-racialism back in the 70's…….the EU forced ALL THIS GARBAGE THAT IS NOW GOING ON. Put this in your google and read, THE LIMA DECLARATION…Western Countries citizen were duped by all governments and the EU…..
Reply
Alan Webb says
21 April 2010 at 7:25 pm
A similar event happened to me in Brisbane.
Two five foot nothing women, coloured tents but see through veils.
I stopped and looked, and in return recieved a glare of contemptuous dislike, like "piss off, you dumb infadel."
And they meant it.
Reply
James Dean says
21 April 2010 at 7:01 pm
All nations rise and fall, they have their time in history and then other nations take up the advancement of mankind. There is no doubt that the Arab tribes did invent quite a lot which we still use today, however, mankind has moved on to new understandings.
It is quite remarkable how the Antichrist reverses everything which God created and when it comes to burqas they cover what God once created naked in all its beauty in Adam and Eve. The closest word we have to burqa is burke; which means ‘to suppress or extinguish quietly’ but I wonder how quietly the female children are when having their clitoris sliced and then ripped out by its roots and their vagina walls sliced off and sewn together to heal with only a small hole left to urinate through where they wait to have themselves cut open on their so-called wedding (rape) night where they can look forward to agonising rape by some mindless religious idiot who prays to Mecca three times a day.
We should feel very sorry for these poor souls in burqas because they are so mentally deformed that they want all women to suffer what they had to suffer, which is a lot like foot-binding which crippled women in China for hundreds of years.
God works in mysterious ways but we all instinctively know what is right and what is wrong regardless of our beliefs and regardless of our own thoughts the Holy Spirit which lives in us all tells our conscience what is of the Antichrist and what is of our Creator God.
Reply
Revisionist says
21 April 2010 at 12:52 pm
Yes.. it's not actually Middle Ages. When Benjamin Franklin invented lightning conductors, some clergymen said they were unnatural and would cause earthquakes! Same sort of thing.
Reply
Gareth Connors says
21 April 2010 at 12:22 pm
Time travel is possible!!!
Just visit a mosque an islamic country or even Lakemba and travel back in time to the middle ages.
Evolution denial, science denial (except when they need Kalashnikov rifles, Semtex or refrigerators and our looney softco*k left wing pollies turn cartwheels to appease the muzzies.
Time to act.
Gareth
Reply
KAD says
21 April 2010 at 12:11 pm
Perhaps the cleric is suffering from a moral crisis after an encounter with a woman who made the earth move for him. Poor chap.
Reply
localyokel says
21 April 2010 at 11:50 am
When Australians visit Iran they must obey and respect the Iranian laws and customs. Why do Australians have to tolerate the blatant disrespect from these people towards our customs?
That sort of clothing does not fit into our society. In most jobs it would not meet the O.H & S standards. The clothing breaches security standards because the face is hidden. The clothing is an anti-social religious mask.
How does that encourage inclusive behavior and integration? Isn't that what multiculturalism is meant to be?
Reply
Ann says
22 April 2010 at 4:43 am
Exactly!
Obviously Muslims have the attitude that is either their way or….
their way.
In other words thay have NO RESPECT for anybody else but themlves!
Pedestrian Infidel: Islam's 12 Steps to Destroy Dar al-Harb (Land of the Infidels):-
http://pedestrianinfidel.blogspot.com/2005/10/isl…
Reply
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Atletico Madrid's Luis Suarez goes up against former club Liverpool in the Champions League on Tuesday.
Suarez celebrated by making a telephone gesture after scoring against Barcelona earlier this month. Creator: JAVIER SORIANO
Luis Suarez reunites with Liverpool in the Champions League on Tuesday and for another 90 minutes, a fans' favourite and cherished former club will have to be enemies again.
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The last time Suarez met Liverpool in Spain was also the first time since he left the club five years earlier in 2014 and it was the Uruguayan who set the tone.
He slid in studs up, not for a tackle but a finish, and without a moment's hesitation celebrated, circling around the back of Liverpool's goal, his arms outstretched, grinning.
He had scored 82 goals in 133 games for them, won a cup with them, been defended through racism and biting scandals by them, and earned their adoration as one of their greatest ever players.
But there at Camp Nou, in the crackle of a Champions League last-16 tie, there was no sign of restraint, let alone remorse. Suarez had given Barcelona the lead against Liverpool and nobody could say he was not relishing every second of it.
In the build-up to the second leg at Anfield, he switched back.
He spoke of his close relationship with Liverpool's staff and how his children learned the excitement of football in the city.
He posed for a photo, giving a thumbs up next to the club's crest on a wall.
None of that was insincere. Liverpool was the club that raised Suarez from a precocious talent at Ajax to one of the most feared strikers in the world.
With them he had shared joy and despair. When Liverpool missed out on winning the Premier League in 2014, a pivotal defeat by Crystal Palace left him crying under his shirt.
But now Suarez was celebrating their disappointment and the Liverpool fans remembered. In the second leg they booed and heckled as Suarez got to work again.
He flicked the ball away as Liverpool tried to take a throw. He confronted Fabinho, hoping to stir a reaction. Fabinho was booked for the challenge that followed, Suarez rolling on the floor, hands clasped around his leg.
"I just can't get enough," the Liverpool fans once sang. Now it was: "Cheat, cheat, cheat".
Liverpool triumphed, an historic comeback turning a 3-0 first-leg defeat into a 4-3 win on aggregate, Suarez's anguish only adding to the satisfaction.
They adored Suarez playing for them but despised him playing against them and at the Wanda Metropolitano on Wednesday, they will expect nothing different.
In an interview with the BBC last year, Steven Gerrard talked about Suarez agitating even his teammates in training.
"He went against them, he struggled with them, he raised his elbows and I thought, 'This is not what you normally see in training'," Gerrard said.
"Normally, you see a lot of respect, but Luis would crush anyone."
It was that same drive and defiance that made Suarez join Atletico Madrid after being cast off by Barcelona.
Suarez told Diario Sport this month he was "treated like he was 15" by Ronald Koeman and the club president, Josep Maria Bartomeu, "leaked that he was damaging the dressing room".
Suarez had not enjoyed his best season for Barca and there was an argument to say his style was depriving the team of a more mobile, free-flowing attack. But he wanted to show he still belonged to the elite and wanted to show Barcelona close up.
He scored 21 goals in 38 games for Atletico last term and the one goal that won them the title.
Diego Simeone called it "the Suarez Zone", a tendency to deliver when it matters most, and before the international break, there he was again, scoring in 2-0 win over Barcelona.
He celebrated by making a phone gesture in the direction of Koeman, seemingly in reference to their 40-second goodbye call.
It was also his fourth goal in as many games for Atletico, easing concerns that a 34-year-old with an aching knee might not burn so brightly in his second season.
But Suarez is at his best when defiant, with an opponent to prove wrong and a moment to seize. Liverpool remember it well.
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Walking through the woods and rocky mountainsides get more exciting the more you climb. However, are your feet as excited about the journey as you are? This depends on the type of footwear you chose to put on. Feet take most of the beating when walking, and take even more when hiking. Therefore, it is important to dress the feet for the occasion so that they can comfortably carry you to your destination and back downhill. However, hiking boots come in many varieties and selecting the right one for the job might be a bit difficult. It is important to get this right because the right boots will give you:
Page Contents
Traction
Weatherproof
Comfort
Lightweight
Durable
Conclusion
Traction
One of the most important reasons why you should choose the right hiking boots is because of the traction they give you. Good hiking footwear usually has a good amount of tread, which allows your feet to grip tightly on slippery or uneven surfaces. This ensures that you do not slip downhill and possibly injure yourself in the process.
Therefore, on a relatively flat terrain, where you ascend and descend slightly, normal boots can work. However, on steep hikes, you will need the right boots, which should have a good number of treads for good grip.
Weatherproof
Whenever you go hiking, there is a very high possibility that you will be exposed to water. This might be in the form of crossing streams, rain, walking on the muddy ground or walking through fields of grass covered with heavy dew.
Regular shoes will soak in this water and freeze your feet the colder it gets as you ascend the hill. They might also make it really uncomfortable on the inside because of the wetness. The good thing with waterproof boots is that they come in two types to solve this issue.
One type has a waterproof lining that prevents the shoe from soaking up, blocking water from getting in while the other type is made of a mesh-like material, which lets the water in but dries up really quickly. The latter is better off for hikers with sweaty feet but might freeze you if you ascend to very high altitudes.
Comfort
The right hiking boots will support your ankles properly to prevent ankle sprains. They are usually taller so as to cover the area around your ankle and this also serves as a protection layer to keep your ankle safe from contact with rocks or tree stumps.
Apart from being taller, these boots have stiffer soles, especially around the midsole. This form of support adds a layer of comfort, giving your feet an easier time hiking. The stiff midsole’s support is very crucial because it lets the footrest comfortably on the shoe sole. This reduces fatigue and enables your feet to endure more stress on the hike.
Lightweight
This is an important factor to consider when choosing hiking boots. You do not want to add on unnecessary weight, which will definitely slow you down and cause you to tire faster when ascending. Hiking boots are designed with weight as a big consideration and therefore, are generally lightweight but firm enough to hold every part of the shoe together.
Durable
Hiking takes your shoes through some of the toughest conditions there is. From rocky terrain to muddy paths and stream crossings, these have the potential to wear down shoes really fast. Despite all these challenges, you need a pair of boots that can step up and give you extreme performance at the time of need.
Other boots might give in to these challenges and tear apart, and this would be a nightmare on the hills. However, hiking boots are designed with all these considerations in mind and thus, will give you superb performance for a long period of time, without tearing apart.
Conclusion
These benefits will definitely make your feet enjoy the hiking expedition. However, in order to enjoy them, you need to select the right boots for you. It is recommended that you visit an actual shop and try out different hiking boots because, being the same size, others might be wide while others narrow, each suiting a specific type of foot. The wrong boot might leave you with blisters and foot arch pain, and these problems will slow you down while causing you to harm at the same time, ruining your hiking experience in the process.
If your idea of a perfect summer is lounging on a sunny beach, sipping cocktails, then you’ll be very likely interested in finding the ideal flip flops for men and not only. However, if hiking is in fact your cup of tea, then read on to find our tips in choosing the perfect hiking boots for you.
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A Pennsylvania teenager is in critical condition after being hit by a car. He was on vacation with some friends and was walking along the side of the road. There were several witnesses to the accident who say that the car hit the teenager and then sped off.
Getting in a car accident, especially as a pedestrian, can result in serious injuries and even death. This particular young man suffered serious head and leg injuries and required surgery. But while he recovers from his injuries, what sorts of penalties await the driver of the vehicle?
When the accident first occurred, law enforcement did not know who was responsible for the hit-and-run. Witnesses gave police a description of the vehicle they saw driving off after hitting the teenager. After searching, the vehicle was discovered with damage consistent with the accident.
Though the accident is still under investigation, police have arrested someone who is believed to have been behind the wheel when the young man was hit. Though the driver of the car was not the owner, he told police that he had been driving the vehicle the night of the accident.
The man who was arrested faces criminal charges that include leaving the scene of an accident, endangering, and not reporting an accident. Though the exact penalties are currently unknown, it is likely that he could face serious consequences for his actions that could include jail time.
With the investigation ongoing, there are a number of questions that arise in a situation like this. Was the driver aware that he had hit a pedestrian? Had the driver been distracted or under the influence of alcohol or drugs? Was the driver negligent in any way?
If negligence was the cause of the crash, the teenager could seek compensation for his injuries. This type of financial compensation can help with some of the unexpected medical costs that come up after an accident.
Source: Asbury Park Press online, “Arrest in hit-and-run accident that injured teen,” Margaret F. Bonafide and Michael Amsel, 18 June 2011
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DURHAM University has become the first in the UK to offer CASH to students to defer their studies by a year following the A-level fiasco.
It comes as the government's U-turn on exam results has sparked fresh chaos for many universities struggling to cope with an unforeseen surge in admissions.
⚠️ Read our GCSE and A-levels live blog for the latest news & updates
6
Furious students took to the streets to protest the A-Levels scandal this weekendCredit: Reuters
6
Durham University, pictured, has become the first in the UK to offer cash to students to defer their studies by a year after the fiascoCredit: Alamy
Durham has promised to accept all offers met by prospective undergraduate students, but has said it will provide financial incentives to those willing to take a year off.
In an email sent to students and posted on its website, Durham admitted that there were “capacity issues caused by this unprecedented situation” - meaning that some pupils who met their offer after the government’s U-turn could have to wait a year to begin their studies.
They said: “It is possible that some offer holders… will have to defer entry to 2021 in order to enrol at Durham University.”
But those willing to defer for a year would be given bursaries “to help with their transition to university life” as well as guaranteed accommodation, the university said.
RESULTS CHAOS
It comes as leading universities scramble to cope with a significant increase in admissions after the government’s dramatic U-turn on Monday.
Students are now able to use their teachers’ recommended grades if they are higher than the grades issued to them on Results Day - which were determined by a controversial algorithm designed by exam regulator Ofqual.
But there are fears that many lower-ranked universities could lose out on a significant chunk of their student intake as prospective undergraduates prioritise their first-choice offers.
Some 1,500 students missed out on Oxbridge places on Results Day - but are now likely to get the spot with their new results and look to start this autumn.
Numbers are also strictly capped on certain courses such as medicine or dentistry, meaning some students might not be admitted this year.
6
Students were shocked to receive much lower results than expected on Results DayCredit: Getty Images - Getty
It comes after Sixth Formers took to the streets to furiously protest the A-levels debacle over the weekend.
Around 39% of students had results downgraded by the Ofqual algorithm - with many missing out on university places as a result.
Universities face legal action should they deny a place to students who have met their offer, but hope that a financial incentive could prevent this from happening, the Telegraph reports.
There are concerns that, with an increasing number of students, it will be more difficult for universities to ensure social distancing and other measures to stop the spread of coronavirus.
Mary Curnock Cook, formerly UCAS chief executive, told the BBC kids could have to take gap years because there simply isn't enough places at universities now.
She said: "There are literally tens of thousands of students who decisions have already been made about who they accept and don't accept.
"This change will mean that universities have to rethink completely.
"Many have filled their places rightly and now they are being asked to take in potentially tens of thousands of people moved back to their centre assessed grades.
"There will be some courses that are just physically full and may have to offer deferrals.”
But there are fears that an enforced gap year could hit poorer students the hardest - as the job market crashes due to the pandemic.
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It comes as embattled education secretary Gavin Williamson refused to resign over the A-levels fiasco.
Mr Williamson insisted he was "incredibly sorry" for the debacle, but appeared to shift the blame onto Ofqual - claiming the regulator "didn't deliver the system that we had been reassured and believed that would be in place".
The Department of Education today reiterated that it had "full confidence in Ofqual and its leadership in their role as independent regulator" ahead of GCSE results day tomorrow.
6
Gavin Williamson has refused to resign over the A-Levels debacleCredit: London News Pictures
6
Students attend a protest on Sunday calling for Williamson's resignationCredit: Reuters
6
Students in Leeds protest the governments handling of exam results earlier todayCredit: Rex Features
Gavin Williamson tries to shift blame for A-level chaos onto exam regulator in fight to save himself
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0.999925 |
A small group of fans yelled "f*** off Uefa, we'll do what we want" as the game kicked off behind closed doors in Nations League encounter
By Sam Street in Rijeka
20:31, 12 Oct 2018
Updated: 0:26, 13 Oct 2018
By Sam Street in Rijeka
Invalid Date,
A SMALL group of England fans vented their fury at Uefa from the hill above the Stadion Rujevica in Rijeka during the Three Lions match against Croatia behind closed doors.
'F*** off Uefa, we'll do what we want' was the cry from those fans banned from attending the game as the home side were punished for fan misdemeanours.
4
England fans sported St George's flags and chanted from outside the stadium in RijekaCredit: Reuters
4
Some supporters crowded on to balconies near the stadiumCredit: Reuters
And they then took to mocking the hosts with cries of 'Your support is f****** s***' as Croatians failed to show the same dedication to watching their team as the visitors.
The match us being played without fans due to a 2015 incident when Croatia supporters sneaked into their stadium in Split and mowed a swastika into the turf for a match against Italy, that was already being played behind closed doors.
In the first half they could see the action, but they missed Marcus Rashford's missed pair of chances and Harry Kane hitting the bar with a header, because their view was blocked by a stand.
O
Around 500 England fans have made the journey to Croatia, with many already having booked non-refundable flight tickets for next week's match in Spain via the country.
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Supporters sang songs about Jagermeister from outside the stadiumCredit: Sportimage
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England played in an empty ground in CroatiaCredit: PA:Press Association
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During the morning, dozens of England and Croatia supporters asked residents whether they could watch the match on rooftops above the 8,500-seater stadium.
But in the hours before the match, police blocked off the area preventing anyone other than press from entering.
It was thought, following the closure of the only road above the ground, that most England fans would resign themselves to watching the match in The Docker pub just a few metres away.
But this hardy bunch were not to be beaten that easily as they trekked up rocky hills on the other side of the stadium to support Harry Kane and co.
Acknowledging the situation, chants of 'England's in Croatia, drinking all your Jager, we're not really here' to the tune of Earth, Wind and Fire's September could be heard from Three Lions supporters in the town centre last night.
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0.992171 |
Brendan Rodgers swoops to sign talented teenager Moussa Dembele in transfer coup for Premiership kings Celtic – The Sun
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dem and dusted
Brendan Rodgers swoops to sign talented teenager Moussa Dembele in transfer coup for Premiership kings Celtic
Ex-Fulham forward was out-of-contract and interesting Premier League sides Arsenal, Liverpool and Southampton
WALLY DOWNES JR
14:46, 28 Jun 2016
Updated: 15:55, 4 Jan 2017
TOTTENHAM have missed out the signing of Moussa Dembele who has chosen to join Celtic.
The 19-year-old let his contract at Fulham expire at the end of last season and had a host of clubs queuing up for his signature.
2
Former Fulham striker Moussa Dembele celebrates netting for the west London club at Craven Cottage before his move to Celtic
2
Moussa Dembele may be leaving the Cottagers after top clubs turned his headCredit: Reuters
The former Paris Saint-Germain wonderkid was linked with Arsenal, Liverpool, Southampton and Juventus last season but has lined up a move north to the Scottish side and is reportedly having a medical on Tuesday.
Brendan Rodgers can offer the teenager first-team football – that he wouldn’t be guaranteed at any of the Premier League’s big teams – after releasing forwards Anthony Stokes, Colin Kazim-Richards and Carlton Cole.
The forward scored 15 goals for a poor Fulham side in the Championship last season and is a France Under-20 international.
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SunSport revealed earlier in June that Craven Cottage players and staff are already fearing for next season.
Slavisa Jokanovic was promised funds to rebuild his struggling squad after the west Londoners released first-team players Dan Burn, Alexander Kacaniklic, Shaun Hutchinson and Jamie O’Hara.
And there are already fears that their threadbare squad will not be replenished well enough to keep them afloat.
Dembele has rejected all offers to stay and Scotland striker Ross McCormack could move if the club get a decent offer for him.
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©News Group Newspapers Limited in England No. 679215 Registered office: 1 London Bridge Street, London, SE1 9GF. "The Sun", "Sun", "Sun Online" are registered trademarks or trade names of News Group Newspapers Limited. This service is provided on News Group Newspapers' Limited's Standard Terms and Conditions in accordance with our Privacy & Cookie Policy. To inquire about a licence to reproduce material, visit our Syndication site. View our online Press Pack. For other inquiries, Contact Us. To see all content on The Sun, please use the Site Map. The Sun website is regulated by the Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO)
Our journalists strive for accuracy but on occasion we make mistakes. For further details of our complaints policy and to make a complaint please click this link: thesun.co.uk/editorial-complaints/
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Polystichum acrostichoides, commonly denominated Christmas fern, is a perennial, evergreen fern native to eastern North America, from Nova Scotia west to Minnesota and south to Florida and eastern Texas
Christmas fern is an evergreen plant that can reach 2 feet in height. It grows in large colonies or more commonly, in groups of two to three individual plants. Stem of Christmas fern is short, scaly, woody at the base and green on the top. Christmas fern develops around 20 leaves better known as fronds.
How do you take care of a Christmas fern?
Place your fern in a hanging basket or fern stand for best results. When considering Christmas fern indoor care, keep the soil evenly moist but not over saturated and mist plants once a week to increase humidity. Remove brown or damaged leaves at any time and use an appropriate granular fertilizer.
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How to plant ferns outdoors
A bed of ferns adds greenery to shaded garden beds, supplying an attractive ground cover in areas where few other plants thrive. All ferns feature leafy fronds and propagate from spores, but they don't all have the same growing requirements. Although most require similar planting methods and locations, cold and heat tolerance varies. Some fern varieties thrive in most climates, such as log ferns (Dryopteris celsa), which grow well in U.S. Department of Agriculture plant hardiness zones 5 through 9, while others are better suited to tropical regions or colder climates.
1) Spread 4 inches of compost, pine bark or leaf mold over a well-drained bed in a shaded or mostly shaded area. Mix the compost in with the top 10 inches of soil with a spade or hoe.
2)Dig a planting hole to the same depth as the fern's root ball and two times as wide. Space multiple plants at the distance recommended on the label for the specific variety, which is usually at least 24 inches in all directions.
3)Lift the fern out of the nursery pot, taking care not to damage the root ball. Set the roots in the prepared hole, and adjust the depth until the fern is planted at the same depth it was at previously. Fill the hole in with soil around the roots and water thoroughly.
4)Cover the soil with a 2-inch layer of organic mulch, such as leaf mold, pine straw or shredded pine bark. Mulch keeps back weeds, retains moisture and keeps the soil cool for the ferns.
5)Water newly planted ferns once or twice weekly, providing about 1 inch of water each time. Keep the top 6 inches of soil moist but not soggy.
Medicinal use of Christmas Fern:
A tea made from the root is blood purifier, emetic and febrifuge. It is used in the treatment of chills, fevers, pneumonia, stomach or bowel complaints and rheumatism. A poultice of the root is used in the treatment of rheumatism.
What are the benefits of ferns?
With its mass of lush green foliage, the Boston Fern is thought to be one of the best air purifying houseplants. This evergreen plant not only helps to rid the home of harmful toxins it improves humidity by helping to restore moisture to the air naturally too.
TAKING CARE OF YOUR NEW PLANT: Upon receipt, immediately soak ROOTS ONLY in water for 2-3 hours then plant in your ideal location. Make sure to water daily, or as needed, if leaves look wilted and/or until it is established in it's new environment. Sometimes it is best to place in a 6"-8" pot of quality soil and let the root system get adjusted and strengthen, then transplant the hole pot of soil to your permanent location. Plants can get easily stressed when being relocated/shipped.
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ABOUT THESE LIVE TREE SEEDLINGS : LIVE TREE/PLANTS WILL BE CAREFULLY DUG UP, PACKAGED AND SHIPPED THE SAME MORNING THAT TRACKING NUMBER IS PROVIDED WITH A SCHEDULED USPS PICKUP PLACED THE NIGHT BEFORE HAND. I will ship in minimal soil with roots in plastic bottle, stretched wrapped around base to help avoid soil spillage. A small wood stick with stem/trunk twist tied will also accompany any plants where it is needed, to help keep them from possibly getting broken. Added packaging materials around the plant will also help to give it some support. What I will NOT do, is just throw "bare root" plants carelessly into a box and tape it shut. Your "baby" will be treated like I am shipping a small live "pet" across the country, with MUCH LOVE AND CARE! All live plants are grown right here on our Unique Creek Homestead!
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Sorry we do not allow returns on these products because of the nature of the product (food product/liquid products/seeds). Thank you for understanding in advance before making your purchase.
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Aram Il'ich Khachaturian (June 6, 1903 - May 1, 1978) was born in Tbilisi into a relatively comfortable middle-class family. Although he had always enjoyed the Armenian folk music, he showed no interest in pursuing a career in music until, at the age of 19, he approached the composer Mikhail Gnesin to give him lessons in composition. This led to his attending the Gnesin School of Music in Moscow (then known as Moscow Conservatory) where he came under the influence of Nicolai Myaskovsky. By then he was already writing his own music, mainly small pieces for piano, which showed a pronounced Asiatic character.
As he entered his fourth decade, he had gained sufficient confidence to attempt more ambitious music, moving from the rustic Armenian Folksong and Dance for wind orchestra of 1932 to his first full symphony in 1934. This work was a decided success – no mean feat in the critical climate of Soviet Russia at that time – and established him as a composer to be reckoned with. Its astute combination of folk-like elements and tidy musical development in relatively conservative idioms made it difficult to criticize. More dramatic in impact was the Concerto for Piano and Orchestra of 1935-36 which won fulsome praise. The work uses every instrument of a large orchestra, making it a spectacular concert hall piece. Its popularity in the Soviet Union was immediate and permanent, and when it was introduced to American audiences in 1942, it quickly became a staple part of the performing repertoire of a number of pianists, rapidly making the transitions to records.
Khachaturian followed this concerto with another, the Concerto for Violin and Orchestra in D minor (1940), which was equally successful in the Soviet Union. It not only won the Stalin Prize but the advocacy of the brilliant young violinist, David Oistrakh. Khachaturian had carefully balanced his folk-like elements with the type of virtuosity which appealed to top-flight violinists, and the work is still heard regularly in concert halls. The onset of what the Soviets called the Great Patriotic War did not find Khachaturian wanting, and his Second Symphony, subtitled The Bell (1943), contained a third movement which the composer felt conveyed "the superhuman sufferings caused to the Soviet people by the Nazi monsters". The Moscow premiere in 1943 was a great success, and within a year it was introduced to America by Leonard Bernstein.
By this time Khachaturian had become indissolubly linked with the Armenian roots, and his first ballet, Gayaneh, named in honor of an Armenian saint, set great store by this heritage. Some of the dances are positively rustic, the rhythms violent and marked with clanging percussion, the melodies extremely vocal. Khachaturian made no bones about using as many kinds of Armenian dance as he could fit into the score, which runs for over an hour in its uncut version. The famous Sabre Dance has taken on a life of its own, played so often out of context that few who hear it are able to name its composer or the ballet from which it comes.
After this phenomenal world-wide success, Khachaturian found himself caught in the web of his own success, and though he wrote another symphony (1947), a cello concerto of distinction (1946) and various chamber works during his prolific career, he became typecast as a composer of folk ballets and theatre music. In 1943 he attempted to repeat his success with Gayaneh by mounting the ballet Spartacus (1943), which did enjoyed a brief time in the sun, but is now usually heard only in highlights, especially the overture. Throughout the 1940s and 1950s he wrote a number of excellent film scores, using his innate gift for music drama.
Like most Soviet composers of any worth, Khachaturian suffered in the attack launched in 1948 by the Central Committee of Communist Party against so-called "anti popular trends" and the sin of "formulism". He was one of the few to criticize his critics publicly, winning for his colleagues some respite from the suffocating attention of Stalin's cronies. In 1951 he was appointed Professor of composition at Moscow Conservatory and at his old college, the Gnesin School, retaining both posts until his retirement. Khachaturian's music did not benefit from a great latter-day wellspring of inner renewal, and long before his death he had become a man venerated for his early achievements rather than for the later repertoire. Yet even his least inspired scores were cleverly realized and had lessons to teach any student of modern composition.
Recommended Recordings
Concerto for Piano
Piano Concerto in D Flat Major; Gayaneh & Masquerade Suites/Chandos CHAN8542
Constantine Orbelian (piano), Neeme Järvi/Scottish National Orchestra
Amazon - UK - Germany - Canada - France - Japan - ArkivMusic
Piano Concerto in D Flat Major; etc./Academy Sound & Vision CDDCA964 or PLT8510
Dora Serviarian-Kuhn (piano), Loris Tjeknavorian/Armenian Philharmonic Orchestra
Amazon - UK - Germany - Canada - France - Japan - ArkivMusic - CD Universe
Reissued as AS&V PLT8510:
Amazon - UK - Germany - Canada - France - Japan - ArkivMusic - CD Universe
Piano Concerto in D Flat Major; Concert-Rhapsody/Naxos 8.550799
Oxana Yablonskaya (piano), Dmitry Yablonsky/Moscow Symphony Orchestra
Amazon - UK - Germany - Canada - France - Japan - ArkivMusic - CD Universe
Concerto for Violin
Violin Concerto in D minor/Chandos CHAN8918
Lydia Mordkovitch (violin), Neeme Järvi/Scottish National Orchestra
Violin Concerto in D minor/EMI CDC747087
Itzhak Perlman (violin), Zubin Mehta/Isreal Philharmonic Orchestra
Gayane (ballet)
Suite "Gayane"/Vanguard OVC5010
Vladimir Golschmann/Vienna State Opera Orchestra
Ballet "Gayaneh" (4 Movements from Suite #1); Piano Concerto/Chandos CHAN8542 or CHAN8945
Neeme Järvi/Royal Scottish Orchestra
Amazon - UK - Germany - Canada - France - Japan - ArkivMusic
Or CHAN8945
Amazon - UK - Germany - Canada - France - Japan
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-Carbon moves in complex chemical and physical transfers from sources or reservoirs, where carbon is released, to sinks, where carbon is taken up. This movement is the global carbon cycle.
Credit: NASA (Earth observatory)
-The global carbon has been exchanging following major reservoirs of carbon such as
: The atmosphere
: The terrestrial biosphere
: The oceans
: The sediments
-The carbon exchanges between reservoirs occur as the result of various chemical, physical, geological, and biological processes. The ocean and terrestrial biosphere contain the largest active pool of carbon near the surface of the Earth. The natural flows of carbon among the atmosphere, ocean, and sediments is fairly balanced.
Credit: NCAR, USA (left) and Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany (Right)
Credit: NCAR, USA (left) and Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany (Right)
Why we should study the Carbon Cycle?
-CO2 in the atmosphere acts like a blanket over the planet by trapping longwave radiation, which would otherwise radiate heat away from the planet. While CO2 is only a very small part of the atmosphere (0.04%), it plays a large role in the energy balance of the planet. CO2 concentration rises and falls about the same amount each year due to seasonal changes in photosynthetic rates. Each year, however, the total amount of atmospheric CO2 is greater than the year before.
Credit: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National laboratory
-Moreover, many uncertainties in the carbon cycle feedbacks in state-of-art numerical models. Therefore, improved and accuracy coupled climate-carbon models are needed to simulate future climate change.
Credit: Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project
Earth System Model
-Earth System Models are sets of equations describing processes within and between the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. These underlying equations contain information about physical, chemical (carbon cycle) and biological mechanisms governing the rates of change of the elements of the Earth System.
Seasonalcycle of Carbon dioxide in ESM
-CESM-BGC (Community Earth System Model ？ Biogeochemical) reasonably reproduces reducing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over Northern hemisphere due to growth of plants
-According to photosynthesis of plants, seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide flux over land changes. For instead, the terrestrial biosphere in Northern hemisphere is uptake carbon dioxide from atmosphere during boreal summer. In contrast, Amazon and the east part of Australia show negative carbon flux due to growth of plants.
-The Eastern equatorial Pacific and the northwestern Arabian Sea are the most intense carbon dioxide source areas by phytoplankton. This intensity is more enhanced in boreal summer. Strong sink area are located in the transition zone between the subtropical gyre and subpolar waters (40N-60N and 40S-60S), negative carbon dioxide flux are formed by the cooling of warm waters with the biological drawdown of carbon dioxide in the nutrient-rich subpolar waters.
References
-Takahashi et al. (2002), Global sea-air CO2 flux based on climatological surface ocean pCO2 and seasonal biological and temperature effects, Deep-Sea Research II, 48, 1601-1622
-Dunne J. P. et al. (2012), GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate Carbon Earth System Models. Part II: Carbon system formulation and baseline simulation characteristics, Journal of Climate, 25, 6646- 6665
-Cadule P. et al. (2010), Benchmarking coupled climate carbon models against long term atmospheric CO2 measurements, Global Biogeochemical cycles, 24, GB2016, doi:10.1029/2009GB003556
-Richard B. N. et al. (2010), Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.0), NCAR TECHNICAL NOTE, NCAR/TN-486+STR
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What goes into a blog post? Helpful, industry-specific content that: 1) gives readers a useful takeaway, and 2) shows you’re an industry expert.
Use your company’s blog posts to opine on current industry topics, humanize your company, and show how your products and services can help people.
1 thought on “Blog Post Title”
Mr WordPress says:
June 18, 2010 at 8:51 pm
Hi, this is a comment.
To delete a comment, just log in and view the post's comments. There you will have the option to edit or delete them.
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0.976321 |
Some data sources, such as mod_udp, only know how to fetch data in fixed-size blocks. The modules that take those data and dissect them into Orchids events, on the other hand, may require a variable number of bytes. The mod_utils.[ch] files provide a general-purpose API to solve this impedance match problem: the blox API.
There are three simple ways the length can be specified, in principle:
implicitly: all required data blocks have exactly the same size (this seems to be the case of no event record format known to OrchIDS);
explicitly: the first few bytes, say, contain the number of bytes to be read (surprisingly, no event record format known to OrchIDS does something as simple as that);
by end of record character: every byte until the terminator character is taken to form the data block (e.g., the mod_bintotext module works this way, considering the newline character '\n' as terminator).
The blox API was initially meant to solve the problem in the context of the mod_openbsm module, for which finding the length is a bit more complicated. However, it is suited to solve the length problem in all three cases above as well, as we shall see, partly, at the end of this post.
Automata
Let us explain the mod_openbsm case in more detail: the first byte is a type tag, and depending on that type, we find the length in different ways. In the first 4 cases, the length is given by the next 4 bytes, in big-endian format (including the already read 5 bytes). In a fifth case, the next 8 bytes are a time value, and the following 2 bytes hold the length of the subsequent file name (excluding the already read 11 bytes) in big-endian format.
Reading the length, and in fact the whole data block, can be described by the following automaton:
There are four states, BLOX_INIT, BLOX_NOT_ALIGNED, BLOX_FINAL (those three are all predefined in the blox library, as numbers 0, 1, 2 respectively), STATE_HEADER, and STATE_FILE_EXPECT_FILENAMELEN (defined in mod_openbsm).
The initial state is BLOX_INIT. In that state, we have read the first byte of the data block.
When in state BLOX_INIT, we look at the first byte. There are 5 legal values for this byte. In the first 4 cases, we go to state STATE_HEADER, and request to read 5 bytes (that is, 4 extra bytes: we have already read 1 byte). In the fifth case, we go to state STATE_FILE_EXPECT_FILENAMELEN, and request to read 11 bytes. If the character read does not match any of the previous cases, we go to state BLOX_NOT_ALIGNED, requesting to resynchronize the data: throw away whatever we have read, re-read one byte and go back to state BLOX_INIT. (Resynchronizing is done automatically by the blox engine, and is implemented in the provided function blox_dissect(). However, you must describe the other actions.)
When in state STATE_HEADER, we have read 5 bytes. We interpret the last 4 bytes as a length n: we request to read n bytes (including the 5 bytes we have already read), and go to state BLOX_FINAL: we have finished our task, the blox engine will make sure that we have read n bytes, and pass it on (to the subdissector, see below).
When in state STATE_FILE_EXPECT_FILENAMELEN, we have read 11 bytes. We interpret the last 2 bytes as a length m: we request to read m more bytes (excluding the 11 bytes we have already read: so we request to read m+11 bytes in total), and go to state BLOX_FINAL, again.
The blox API
This automaton is described by a function of the following type, which you must provide (in the case of mod_openbsm, this function is called openbsm_compute_length):
typedef size_t (*compute_length_fun) (unsigned char *first_bytes,
size_t n_first_bytes,
size_t available_bytes,
int *state, /* pointer to blox state */
void *sd_data);
When your function, of that type, is called, first_bytes will point to a memory zone that holds available_bytes bytes; this number is always larger than or equal to the previously required number of bytes, n_first_bytes. (If you request 11 bytes, the mod_udp module may decide to read 1024 bytes instead, for example.) The integer pointed to by state is the current state. Your function’s task will be to update the state by storing the new state into *state, and return the requested number of bytes to read (5, or 11, for example, in the open_bsm case). The pointer sd_data contains private data that is passed to each invocation of your function: do whatever you please with it.
Once we have reached the BLOX_FINAL state (by storing it into *state), the blox engine will call a subdissector function, which you must provide, too, and is of the following type (in the openbsm case, this is openbsm_subdissect()):
typedef void (*subdissect_fun) (orchids_t *ctx, mod_entry_t *mod,
event_t *event,
ovm_var_t *delegate,
unsigned char *stream,
size_t stream_len,
void *sd_data,
int dissector_level);
When your subdissector is called, stream will hold a pointer to stream_len bytes, holding a complete data block. You must now chop this block in pieces, enriching the event (list of field/value pairs) event. This works just like an ordinary dissector.
The mod value points to the current module (mod_openbsm in our example), sd_data is the same pointer to private data that we mentioned above.
The delegate value is a bit more mysterious. In the mod_openbsm example again, the data block will be part of an OrchIDS binary string str (or a virtual binary string). Some the field/value pairs will include substrings of it. It is interesting to create those substrings as virtual strings. For that, the ovm_vstr_new() and ovm_vbstr_new() functions require a delegate: this is the delegate value. Most often, delegate will be the string str. However, if str is itself virtual, delegate might be its own delegate instead.
Finally, the dissector_level value holds the number of nested dissectors called until now on the current data source. You don’t need to know anything about it, except that you should pass it along to calls to further subdissectors, and to post_event() and REGISTER_EVENTS() (which themselves may call subdissectors, and will do so with a value of dissector_level+1). The blox API uses it to register itself into the rtactionlist priority queue, with a priority equal to dissector_level*128. This ensures that blox dissectors consume their input faster than this input is produced.
Only two small tasks remain. We must write our dissector: this will just be a simple call to the following function, provided by the blox API:
int blox_dissect(orchids_t *ctx, mod_entry_t *mod, event_t *event,
void *sd_data, int dissector_level);
For example, the dissector of the mod_openbsm module is:
static int openbsm_dissect (orchids_t *ctx, mod_entry_t *mod,
event_t *event, void *data, int dissector_level)
{
return blox_dissect (ctx, mod, event, data, dissector_level);
}
And we must also make sure that we have initialized an instance of the blox API for each possible matching source, using the following function:
blox_hook_t *init_blox_hook(orchids_t *ctx,
blox_config_t *bcfg,
char *tag,
size_t taglen);
This returns a pointer to a blox_hook_t structure, which holds various buffers and flags. Each pair of a source and a blox dissector should have its own blox_hook_t structure. It is therefore natural to call init_blox_hook() for each DISSECT directive. This is done by installing a pre-dissection hook in the input_module_t structure describing the module we are creating. For example, the pre-dissector of the mod_openbsm module is:
static void *openbsm_predissect(orchids_t *ctx, mod_entry_t *mod,
char *parent_modname,
char *cond_param_str,
int cond_param_size)
{
blox_hook_t *hook;
hook = init_blox_hook (ctx, mod->config, cond_param_str, cond_param_size);
return hook;
}
The OrchIDS engine will make sure that the hook returned by the pre dissector will be passed on to the blox API, so that it knows which buffers and flags pertain to which input/dissector pair.
Finally, the bcfg argument to init_blox_hook() holds configuration information for the whole dissector module (not for each one if its instances). You obtain it by calling:
blox_config_t *init_blox_config(orchids_t *ctx,
mod_entry_t *mod,
size_t n_first_bytes,
compute_length_fun compute_length,
subdissect_fun subdissect,
void *sd_data
);
Here, n_first_bytes is the number of bytes that should be read each time blox_dissect() is called. In the case of the mod_openbsm module, we only need to read one byte. For other formats, we may need to read 4 bytes holding a length, for example.
The compute_length and subdissect function arguments are those we have described above, and this is how we inform the blox engine what those functions are. Finally, sd_data is the private pointer that will be passed to both.
Again in the case of the mod_openbsm module, this initialization is done in the preconfiguration function below (the call to register_fields() is meant to register all fields known to mod_openbsm, and is not directly relevant to this post):
static void *openbsm_preconfig(orchids_t *ctx, mod_entry_t *mod)
{
blox_config_t *bcfg;
register_fields(ctx, mod, openbsm_fields, OPENBSM_FIELDS);
bcfg = init_blox_config (ctx, mod, 1,
openbsm_compute_length,
openbsm_subdissect,
NULL);
return bcfg;
}
Returning bcfg makes sure it will be stored into the config field of the module mod: we retrieve it as mod->config in the call we have made above to init_blox_hook().
Other uses of the blox API
We have said that the blox API could be used for more general purposes. Let us give the example of the mod_bintotext module, which converts blocks of binary data into sequences of lines terminated by the newline character \n.
In state BLOX_INIT, the bintotext_compute_length() function looks for a newline character \n inside the first_bytes array, of length available_bytes. (We reuse the same argument names as in the length computing function of the mod_openbsm module.) Note that we only require to read 1 byte, just as in the mod_openbsm case, but available_bytes may be much larger: typically 1024 bytes will be available for binary data coming from a binary file or a UDP socket.
If the newline character was found, then bintotext_compute_length() goes to the BLOX_FINAL state, and returns the offset of the first character past the newline character. This provides the subdissector with the first line of text, including the final newline.
If the newline character was not found, then bintotext_compute_length() goes to a new state, BLOX_NSTATES + available_bytes. This funny state number is guaranteed to be larger than or equal to BLOX_NSTATES, the number of reserved states (BLOX_INIT, BLOX_FINAL, and BLOX_NOT_ALIGNED). Adding available_bytes to BLOX_NSTATES allows us to remember the number of bytes we had available in which no newline could be found. (We could also have used the sd_data pointer to that purpose.) The bintotext_compute_length() function then requests just one byte more, i.e., returns available_bytes+1.
When control is returned to bintotext_compute_length() in some state other than BLOX_INIT, BLOX_FINAL, and BLOX_NOT_ALIGNED (say, BLOX_NSTATES + 1024), with a new value of available_bytes (say, 2048), we look for a newline in the yet unexplored part of the character array first_bytes (i.e., between offsets 1024 included and 2048 excluded, in our example), and we proceed as above.
When BLOX_FINAL is reached, the bloxAPI will then call our subdissector. This merely takes the stream_len first bytes of the stream character array and makes then a virtual string, associated with the .bintotext.line field. (We take the same variable names as in the mod_bsm example; note that we do not subtract 1 from stream_len, so that the trailing newline is kept.)
This entry was posted in Dissecting data sources into events, Event management on May 29, 2015 by orchidsdev.
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0.999991 |
When you are starting a home computer business idea It might seem like you are on your own and that you simply have to figure out what you are doing all by yourself. Even if you have the support of your family as you start your home business, you should know that for awhile you aren't going to be able to spend all of that time with your children. Many people start a home business because they feel that they will be able to spend lots of time doing nothing, and this can be true, but not at the start. Right away you will have to work hard to get everything up and running, and it might take more time than you think that it will. So, the best thing that you can do is have your children involved in as many ways as you can. Involving the kids in many ways, you'll find they are much more supportive of your business and it will allow you to get the work done that you need to, but also letting them help a bit.
The kind of involvement that your children have is based mostly on what type of business you have. You want to be sure that you are giving them things to do that not only keep them business and out of trouble, but that actually help you and further your business. Therefore, you want to be sure that you are thinking about things that they can do to help you out in all sorts of ways.
Older children can do more extensive tasks, such as keeping track of your records, or even answering the phone. As your child ages and does more with your business, you'll be able to trust him to answer phones, stuff envelopes and other usual tasks when he gets home from school. These can be ways that you have your kids help without having to worry about finding things for them to do. Smaller children are going to be more difficult to get active in your business because they normally can't do many of the things that can help your business. Importantly though, still make certain they are interested and involved. Even if you have them empty your trash can, or clean up around the office, or do smaller things that they will be able to do easily.
The most important thing that you can do is to get your family involved in your home computer business idea. This means that you will be able to have a loving and supportive family that you can trust to be interested in your business, and to really be able to support you in your decisions. Remember that you shouldn't force your children to be involved more than they would like to be, but if you can find some small ways for them to be involved, they might be much happier. It will also turn into great family time.
William Drapcho is the owner of http://williamdrapcho.com where you can sign up for his home computer business idea newsletter. Also go to http://williamdrapcho.com/blog or go to http://pluginprofitsite.com/main-19493 and learn more about the many business ideas and opportunities.
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The Residential Mail box Makeover - There are many types of different residential mail boxes.
Become a Parent and Witness a Real Miracle - Become a parent and witness a real miracle.
How to Prevent or Remove Common Stains - Many stains can be avoided or removed when you follow special guidelines.
The Benefits of Home Air Purifiers - Are you one of those people who need a home air purifier?.
Cleaning Out The Cabinets in Your Kitchen - Cleaning out and finding space in your kitchen cabinets can be a hard, trying experience.
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0.999999 |
Ecolabels are intended to inform us about the environmental impacts from producing or using a product. Ecolabels set minimum environmental and health standards for specific product categories regarding certain specific qualities or properties they consider appropriate, and through the process of verification (including on-site manufacturer audits), products are identified as meeting the criteria.
Ecolabels are designed to inform consumers that the labelled product is more environmentally friendly than most typically setting standards so the top 20-25% of the market can comply. The Australian Government's 'Energy Allstars' appliance rating site sets its 'preferred performer' standards so that the top 25% of products are listed. Other types rate products on their performance within this top section of the market e.g. GreenTag™ and Cradle to Cradle®.
Ecolabels are increasingly facilitating manufacturers, retailers and customers in their purchasing decisions. Whilst they are voluntary, they are becoming an important competitive factor within Australia. Ecolabels are also a means to protect consumers from dubious environmental claims or 'greenwash'.
Types of ecolabels and environmental declarations
There are many different labelling programs, run by governments, private companies and non-governmental organisations.
The Geneva-based International Organization for Standardization or ISO has set various standards covering different types of Environmental labels and declarations:
ISO 14024 -Third Party - (Type I environmental labelling)
ISO 14021- Self-declared environmental claims (Type II environmental labelling)
ISO 14025- Environmental Product declarations - (Type III environmental declarations)
Type I labels: Third Party Certified Environmental Labelling
Are multi criteria based, third party certified environmental labelling programmes run in compliance with ISO 14024. This standard is not one under which compliance can be certified, so schemes self declare compliance and ideally this should be verified by external parties with appropriate competence.
Examples of recognised Australian Type 1 Ecolabels:
Type 1 ecolabels create a standard under which products can be assessed against set criteria and compared with others within the same category, awarding labels to those that are environmentally preferable through their life cycle. Typically however, the Standards under which these labels are awarded do not assess products using life cycle assessment as is required under Type 3 Environmental Declarations, but on a number of discrete parameters such as Toxics, Recycled Content, Renewable Energy Percentage etc. which do not necessarily consider all the impacts of the whole life cycle of the products e.g. raw materials extraction and end of life impacts only what are considered by the Certifying organisation to be the major ones.
In other words, Type 1 ecolabels do not undertake a 'cradle to grave' analysis or Life Cycle Assessment of all impacts of the product.
ISO defines these as 'voluntary, multiple criteria based practitioner programs that award labels claiming overall environmental preference of a product within a particular category, based on life cycle considerations'. Product criteria are defined as 'a set of quantitative and qualitative technical requirements that the applicant, product or product category shall meet to be awarded an environmental label'.
The criteria are set by an independent body with input from a range of stakeholders and advisory and expert committees. This sets down a defined procedure along which product criteria are developed and maintained.
While ecospecifier's GreenTag™ ecolabel is a true Type 1 Mark, it does not just award a single label but rates a product compared to a Business as Usual (worst case) product commonly available and does so by creating an Ecopoint score using fully detailed and audited life cycle assessment and additional criteria not measured by LCA such as:
Building Synergy
Biodiversity (Timber Certification)
More detailed Health and Ecotoxicity criteria than either LCA;
Corporate Social Responsibility
Type II labels:
Informative environmental self-declaration claims
These are environmental claims made about goods by their manufacturers, importers or distributors. They are not independently verified, do not use pre-determined and accepted criteria for reference, and are arguably the least informative of the three types of environmental labels.
A label claiming a product to be 'biodegradable', without defining the term, is not necessarily a compliant Type II label. Under ISO 14021, all claims must be backed by bona fide and readily available third party information such as in the case of a claim for Biodegradability- independent laboratory test data from an ISO 17011 compliant laboratory (in Australia this would typically be indicated by NATA accreditation). Furthermore an explanatory statement is required to be provided in close proximity and of reasonable size, so they can be read together explaining the reasons for the claim.
Governments will often regulate these types of claims independently under consumer protection legislation. In Australia, the ACCC has issued a guideline for Consumer Protection for businesses. Entitled 'Green marketing and the Trade Practices Act: 2008', this document places the following responsibilities on Self Declared environmental claims:
be honest and truthful
detail the specific part of the product or process it is referring to
use language which the average member of the public can understand
explain the significance of the benefit
be able to be substantiate the claim.
Source: http://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Green%20marketing%20and%20the%20ACL.pdf
A Consumer information booklet has also been produced to help consumers understand environmental claims.
Source: http://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Your%20consumer%20rights%20environmental%20claims.pdf
Type III labels:
Quantified product information label based upon independent verification using preset indices
Type III environmental declarations present quantified environmental information on the life cycle of a product to enable comparisons between products fulfilling the same function. Such declarations:
are based on independently verified life cycle assessment (LCA) data, life cycle inventory analysis (LCI)data or information modules in accordance with the ISO 14040 series of standards and, where relevant, additional environmental information,
are developed using predetermined parameters, and
are subject to the administration of a programme operator, such as a company or a group of companies, industrial sector or trade association, public authorities or agencies, or an independent scientific body or other organization.
Type III environmental declarations as described in ISO 14025 are primarily intended for use in business-to-business communication, but their use in business-to-consumer communication is not precluded.
Unlike Type I labels, they do not judge products, leaving that task to consumers. The output report is known as an Environmental Product Declaration or EPD. EPDs are constituted in accordance with sets of standard Product Category Rules to ensure that EPDs of product produced by different organisations in the same functional use category use the same scope of data and metrics. EPDs developed by organisations are subject to major stakeholder review processes and then published in the public domain by country based registrars.
This supports consistency within an industry an enables comparison of products via the use of EPDs.
EPDs produced by ecospecifier are advertised for comment in a dedicated section of our fortnightly e-newsletter and published free to air in dedicated sections on respective website/s.
EPDs are the most accurate form of environmental declaration because of the PCR process and the use of ISO 14040 peer reviewed LCA.
Single issue ecolabels
In addition, there are single-issue labels granted by a third party certification agencies or government agencies, that refer to specific environmental or sometimes ethical characteristic of a product, e.g. certified organic cotton, dolphin-safe tuna fishing or sustainable forestry.
While ISO is as yet to issue public guidelines on single-issue certification, the ISEAL Alliance is an association of international standard-setting, certification and accreditation organisations that focus on social and environmental issues. The standards and verification systems of ISEAL members represent efforts to define issue-specific or single issue elements of social and environmental sustainability such as Forest Stewardship Certification or FSC and Fair Trade..
Ecolabels are also often differentiated on the basis of the organisation issuing the label.
Independent or private ecolabels
These ecolabels are issued by non-governmental organisations (NGOs) or research institutions. Many of these take into account the whole life cycle of a product, which in the case of textiles, will range from the production of fibres to the disposal phase of the discarded product. Organisations may even use their own logo to endorse products, in such instances it becomes an ecolabel e.g. WWF logo when used to endorse a product. Corporations such as the Woolmark Company Pty Ltd that regulate the use of the Woolmark Certification Mark for the textile industry or the Heart Foundation Logo are other common examples
National and international labels
These are introduced by the governments of various countries. These ecolabels are of special significance to manufacturers as they provide an opportunity to enter a new market and to address a certain market niche. Examples of Government initiated labels include MEPS, WELS, WERS and Energy Star. Energy Star is a good examples of an International Label having been introduced in the USA and then in many other countries including Australia.
Certification Marks
A Certification Trade Mark (CTM) indicates to consumers that a product or service meets a particular standard and the rules for the awarding of the Mark have been approved by an appropriate Government Department who is then responsible for oversight of the implementation of the rules. For example, a CTM might indicate that a product:
is of a particular quality
has been manufactured in a particular location or by using a particular process
is made from particular materials or ingredients
is suited to a particular task.
In Australia, ACCC approval is required before CTMs can be registered under the Trade Marks Act 1995. The Heart Foundation 'Tick' logo above is a common example.
Certification Marks can also be approved as a series, where each individual Mark denotes a different characteristic or characteristics e.g. the Woolmark Marks denote different levels of wool content
Whereas the GreenTag™ application for a Series Certification Mark (in process) will, when successful, recognise increasing levels of sustainability performance based on the GreenTag™ Standard that is underpinned by detailed, peer reviewed whole of life cycle analysis.
International agencies involved in ecolabelling:
International Organization for Standardization (ISO)
The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) is a worldwide federation of national standards bodies from some 140 countries formed to promote the development of standardisation. ISO's work results in international agreements which are published as international standards.
The ISO has evolved draft standards for developing its various types of ecolabelling. It is currently also developing an ISO standard for ecolabels.
Global Ecolabelling Network
The Global Ecolabelling Network (GEN) is an association of organisations around the world that issue Type 1 ecolabelling certification to voluntary applicants. GEN participates in the ecolabelling activities of the United Nations Environment Program(UNEP), International Organization for Standardization (ISO), World Trade Organization (WTO), and others. Member Labels of GEN include EU-Flower label, Nordic Eco-label, Environmental Choice (Canada), Eco-Mark (Japan), Green Mark (China-Taiwan Province), Eco-Mark (republic of Korea), Environmental Labelling (China) and Eco-Mark (India), Green Label (Singapore) and numerous others. Membership of GEN is voluntary. GEN also undertakes
The ISEAL Alliance
The ISEAL Alliance is an association of international standard-setting, certification and accreditation organisations that focus on social and environmental issues. The standards and verification systems of ISEAL members represent efforts to define issue-specific elements of social and environmental sustainability.
ISEAL has published a set of criteria for how standards are set (Code of Good Practice). Member organisations involved in accreditation are committed to continuous improvement of their programs and participate in internal peer reviews against ISO Guide 17011. Members of ISEAL include the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), The Rainforest Alliance, International Federation of Organic Agricultural Movements (IFOAM) and the International Organic Accreditation Service (IOAS).
Certified organic
Certified organic is a general term used to represent third party certified organic agricultural products including food, drinks, personal and building products. The International Federation of Organic Agricultural Movements (IFOAM) and Demeter are organisations devoted to issuing standards for organic and biodynamic systems of agricultural production respectively. Demeter is also a certifying agency. Member organisations of IFOAM provide certification of products their home countries e.g. in Australia via organisations including members of the Organic Federation of Australia. Numerous Australian certification organisations certify both Organic and Biodynamic products, such as Biological Farmers of Australia (BFA) and The National Association for Sustainable Agriculture Australia (NASAA).
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Disagreements and quarrels are imminent in any relationship. We could say they are a little more between partners, maybe because the relationship is between two equals, who could be different from each other, unlike in a parent-child relationship where one is much older than the other.
It is natural to lose your cool and yell at your partner, sometimes even for petty issues such as leaving the toilet unflushed. But after you have kids, you need to be careful in these matters as well, lest it may pollute the environment at home, leaving your children helpless.
Here are a few ways in which your children can get affected if you fight in front of them:
1. Adverse Effect On Your Child’s Mental Health:
When your children see you fighting violently or on a regular basis, it can have a long-term, damaging effect on their overall mental health.
There is a host of mental issues that could crop up in your children as a result of such conflicts. Some of the most common health issues could be severe anxiety, depression, feelings of guilt, poor self-esteem, difficulty in concentration and coping up with academics, fear, insomnia and so on.
2. Guilty About Having To Take Sides:
When you fight in front of your children, one of the biggest problems that they may face is the need to take sides.
Your children will want to love and be with both you and your partner, but when they see you fighting constantly, it may create a feeling of confusion and chaos in their minds. As a result, your children will not be able to make up their mind about who is right and who is wrong.
When faced with such a situation, your children may feel guilty that they are taking the side of one parent and letting down the expectations of the other.
It can often create stress in your children and result in them getting alienated to either you or your partner.
3. A Feeling Of Being Unsafe:
For your children, the home is the safest and most comforting place that they know. However, with constant fights with your partner, you ruin their feeling of safety and peace at home.
You may not be violent or physically destructive, but your fighting could cause a lot of anxiety in your children. They may feel unsafe in a place, which was until then their home. It could create a lot of stress and confusion in them.
When your children see you fight all the time, they may also worry that one of the parents would harm the other, or maybe harm the children.
The constant fear can have devastating effects on your children’s psyche. They could also worry that your frequent fights might lead to separation, breaking up the family set-up.
4. Problems In Parent And Child Relationship:
If your children are anxious about the unpleasant environment that gets created as a result of your constant fights, it will affect the relationship they share with you.
For your children, you are a role model. Seeing their role models fight could shatter their image of you.
When your children are uncomfortable and do not feel happy or safe, it can be difficult for them to have a comfortable and honest relationship with you. Seeing you fight, they might feel that you would show the same anger and aggression towards them. As a result, they may not want to share their honest feelings with you.
Continue reading on the next page...
Immediate Effects Of Parents’ Fights On Children:
Here are some of the most direct effects that your fighting can have on your children:
Feeling scared and helpless
Becoming clingy and cranky
Feeling insecure and having low self-esteem
Feeling guilty and ashamed
Depressed and anxious
Being violent with other children
Social alienation and disinterest in meeting people
Bed wetting and being quiet
How To Handle A Heated Topic When Your Kids Are Around:
With stressful lifestyles and the constant demands of parenting, it is but natural that you may sometimes lose your cool and end up fighting in front of your children. While it should not be a habit, there are certain ways in which you can reduce the damage you do to your children. Here are a few things you should keep in mind when you are in a conflicting situation with your partner:
1. Do Not Jump In To A Fight:
When your partner is already worked up about something, try and avoid getting into a fight. Even if you try to discuss something at this stage, it may only result in shouting and yelling, instead of a normal talk. Let your partner cool down before you discuss the matter with him.
2. Discuss The Problem:
Instead of letting the situation take control, discuss the issues with your partner before the matter snowballs into a fight.
3. Hear Each Other’s Point Of View:
Respect each other’s point of view and try to understand what your partner has to say. You may not agree, but you can still try to listen.
4. Find A Middle Path:
If you cannot reach a clear decision, try to find a solution that will work best for both of you.
5. Seek Help:
Sometimes, when you have tried everything but nothing worked, the best way to deal with the issue is to take outside help. You may seek the help of your parents or family, or go for professional or marriage counselling.
It is necessary for you to keep your emotions under control and find the best way to discuss them with your partner.
Pregnancy and Baby Singapore provides you with the latest news and practical tips to help you in your parenting journey. For more tips on your pregnancy and baby in Singapore, subscribe to our mailing list and like us on Facebook, to receive new articles for mummies like you every week!
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Choosing a Pet Chicken Maybe, you want the luxury of freshly laid eggs. Maybe, you think chickens are interesting animals and would make good pets. Before you rush out and purchase a coop and chicken feed, you should understand what's entailed in keeping them healthy and safe. General Information Make
Read more
Turkeys
Category: Choosing Your Pet, Livestock, Poultry
While all animals have unique personalities, turkeys are usually docile animals. They can be interesting pets to have. However, like any pet, they require a certain level of care to remain healthy and content. Before you decide to purchase turkeys, you should understand what the care entails. Housing Keep
Read more
Ducks
Category: Choosing Your Pet, Livestock, Poultry
You might enjoy feeding the ducks at the pond. When you see them interact with their environment, it may make you smile. Ultimately, this could provoke you to want to go out and buy one, so you have that feeling all the time. While you might not think that a duck takes a great deal of work, there's more
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It's possible to become pregnant again very soon after the birth of a baby, even if you're breastfeeding and even if your periods have not returned.
You usually release an egg (ovulate) about 2 weeks before your period starts, so it's possible to get pregnant before you have a period.
It's important to plan contraception in advance. If you have your baby in hospital, you'll probably discuss contraception with a midwife before you go home.
You'll also be asked about contraception at your postnatal check, which happens 6 to 8 weeks after the birth. But you can discuss it at any time (including while you're still pregnant) with a:
health visitor
midwife
GP
a doctor or nurse at a contraception or sexual health clinic
Not all methods of contraception are safe for all women. For example, you should not use some methods if you have certain medical conditions, such as high blood pressure (hypertension).
You can discuss with your doctor or nurse which methods are suitable for you.
At any time after the birth of your baby, as long as you have no medical risks, you can use:
a contraceptive implant (more than 99% effective)
a contraceptive injection (more than 99% effective)
the progestogen-only pill (99% effective if taken correctly)
male condoms (98% effective if used correctly)
female condoms (95% effective if used correctly)
Or, you can choose to have an IUD (intrauterine device) (more than 99% effective), or an IUS (intrauterine system) (more than 99% effective) inserted within 48 hours of the birth.
If an IUD or IUS is not inserted within 48 hours, you'll usually be advised to wait until 4 weeks after the birth.
If you're not breastfeeding and your healthcare professional has checked you have no medical risk factors for a blood clot in a vein, you can start to use the:
combined pill (more than 99% effective if taken correctly)
vaginal ring (more than 99% effective if used correctly)
contraceptive patch (more than 99% effective if used correctly)
But if you're breastfeeding, have certain health conditions, or a risk of blood clots, you'll usually be advised to delay using the combined pill, ring or patch until at least 6 weeks after the birth.
If you did not have an IUD or IUS inserted within 48 hours of the birth, you can have one inserted later. But you'll usually be advised to wait at least 4 weeks after the birth.
If you're breastfeeding or you've developed certain medical conditions during pregnancy or delivery, you'll need to wait until at least 6 weeks before you can use the:
combined pill
vaginal ring
contraceptive patch
You can usually start using a diaphragm or cap (92% to 96% effective if used correctly) around 6 weeks after giving birth.
If you used a diaphragm or cap before becoming pregnant, see a GP or a doctor or nurse at a contraception clinic after the birth, to make sure it still fits correctly.
This is because childbirth and other factors, such as gaining or losing weight, can mean you need a different size.
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Canadian sports fans hoping to catch a Seattle Seahawks or Seattle Kraken game are being advised to plan their trips across the border carefully, or they could face a nasty surprise on their return to Canada.
The U.S. will reopen its land border crossings to fully vaccinated Canadians on Nov. 8.
American border agents do not require proof of a negative COVID-19 test, but the story is entirely different returning to Canada, where a negative test is required.
That test can’t be a rapid antigen test, and it can’t be more than 72 hours old.
“I’ve been told they literally look down to the minute, and if anyone is more than 72 hours, that’s it,” said U.S. immigration lawyer Len Saunders.
That’s why Seahawks season ticket holder Aneesh Kumar admitted he may not go to any games this season, because it’s too risky and expensive.
For shorter trips, Canadian are allowed to get a test at home before crossing the border, but need to plan carefully. They need to leave themselves enough time to make it to their U.S. destination and back before the 72-hour test limit expires.
Testing for travel in B.C. is expensive, ranging from just under $200 to nearly $400 at some clinics.
“At the end of the day, $200 is not something I’m really interested in spending for testing,” said Kumar, who is fully vaccinated.
In fact, Kumar said he may give his tickets away.
Travellers who don’t make it to the border on time are required to take another test in the United States.
“I’ve heard of clients who are racing up the I-5 to the Canadian border worried about traffic,” said Saunders.
Already, many clinics near the border say they are fully booked some days, and test results are sometimes taking up to 48 hours due to the increased volume.
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Polygraph testing is a process in which a professional expert tests the statement of a person on a specific subject. Also known as lie detector test, polygraph tests are employed and applied all over the world in different fields and by an array of agencies, companies, and private people. It is, yet, a process that due to its popular applications, especially on television has been perceived as an almighty instrument capable of miraculously detect right from wrong. This, however, is not as easy as movies or TV shows portray. We will try to explain what polygraph testing is all about, what can be expected but most importantly, what cannot be required from a polygraph test.
Polygraph testing, how does it work
Polygraph testing is a structured process designed in such a way that the person examined can be tested on her/his statement about a subject, matter, issue or problem.
It is important to understand this distinction between testing or clearing a matter and examining independent questions. This is the biggest idea or should we say “myth” about a polygraph test that has been repeated every time again in movies and entertainment.
The result of a polygraph test is unique and does not discriminate among questions. The polygraph investigation analyzes someone’s honesty in a subject and not in questions.
Another wrong idea that is broadly used and spread is that one can connect an individual to the instrument and by asking a question the instrument will miraculously “spit out” if he lies or not to that question. This perception is far from true. Questions are asked on various occasions to make sure the physiological reactions are consistent and significant.
The normal steps of a polygraph test are the following:
1. Introduction of polygraph examiner and examinee to the test and case under investigation
2. Initial administrative paperwork is taken care of
3. Explanation of the polygraph instrument and process by the polygraph examiner
4. Explanation of the case by the examinee and follow up questions by polygraph examiner
5. Introduction to the polygraph questions
6. Physiological Data Collection phase (Examinee attached to the instrument and answering the questions asked by examiner)
7. Data Analysis (Chart analysis)
8. Discussion of test with examinee
9. Writing of polygraph test report with findings and result
Depending on the type of exam, time can differ from one test to another. Between 90 and 120 minutes should be taken into account from Step 1 up to and including Step 8. Report writing will depend on the examiner’s agreement with the client but can take anywhere between 24 and 72 hours.
How important is the instrument?
The polygraph instrument is of course of importance when performing a lie detection test. Nevertheless, it is not as important as many people might think. If the polygraph examiner is using one of the major brands in the market, they will all have more or less the same outcome. Polygraph instruments have been around for a while and their measurements have improved over the years but they still read the same phenomena as the first instruments.
An instrument should at least measure the following:
Respiratory activity
Cardiovascular activity
Sweat activity / Skin conductance
Some instruments can have redundant accessories but any polygraph instrument used for detection of deception should at least measure these three channels.
The instrument can only register physiological activity. It is the right preparation, application of right stimuli in an adequate environment that will allow the readings to be indicative of truth or deception of the examinee.
A polygraph instrument is a tool permitting the professional to reach an opinion. It is in no way a “crystal ball” capable of telling when somebody is telling the truth or lying just asking random questions. To arrive to a reliable result a polygraph test needs to be run and applied following the steps explained before.
Different types of polygraph tests
When referring to polygraph exams, these are often seen as one type of test. This is far from reality. The polygraph is used in different fields and for diverse reasons, needing distinct types of solutions and therefore techniques.
First of all, the polygraph can be used to detect knowledge about specific information or to detect somebody’s level of deception about a specific topic. These two types of applications will require different techniques:
The first will try to detect the highest physiological response among the elements presented to the examinee.
The latest will test the level of physiological response to stimuli and look for consistency and significance in responses.
The techniques used to detect deception through consistent and significant responses can then again be divided into screening or specific tests.
Screening tests are mostly used in cases like pre-employment, psychological treatment tests or post-conviction sex offender treatment programs.
Specific tests are the exams the public normally refers to. These test if a person is telling the truth or lying about a specific issue. These are also the techniques with the highest reliability rate.
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Noam Chomsky Hegemony or survival America's quest for global dominance All notes in this text refer to original notes l...
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Noam Chomsky
Hegemony or survival America's quest for global dominance All notes in this text refer to original notes located there: http://www.americanempireproject.com/chomsky/hegemony_notes.htm
Contents 1. Priorities and Prospects 2. Imperial Grand Strategy 3. The New Era of Enlightenment 4. Dangerous Times 5. The Iraq Connection 6. Dilemmas of Dominance 7. Cauldron of Animosities 8. Terrorism and Justice: Some Useful Truisms 9. A Passing Nightmare? Notes Index
Please see www.hegemonyorsurvival.net or www.americanempireproject.com for expanded endnotes and an e-book with additional background, discussion, and sources.
Noam Chomsky
1
Hegemony or Survival
Chapter 1 Priorities and Prospects
A few years ago, one of the great figures of contemporary biology, Ernst Mayr, published some reflections on the likelihood of success in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.1 He considered the prospects very low. His reasoning had to do with the adaptive value of what we call "higher intelligence," meaning the particular human form of intellectual organization. Mayr estimated the number of species since the origin of life at about fifty billion, only one of which "achieved the kind of intelligence needed to establish a civilization." It did so very recently, perhaps 100,000 years ago. It is generally assumed that only one small breeding group survived, of which we are all descendants. Mayr speculated that the human form of intellectual organization may not be favored by selection. The history of life on Earth, he wrote, refutes the claim that "it is better to be smart than to be stupid," at least judging by biological success: beetles and bacteria, for example, are vastly more successful than humans in terms of survival. He also made the rather somber observation that "the average life expectancy of a species is about 100,000 years." We are entering a period of human history that may provide an answer to the question of whether it is better to be smart than stupid. The most hopeful prospect is that the question will not be answered: if it receives a definite answer, that answer can only be that humans were a kind of "biological error," using their allotted 100,000 years to destroy themselves and, in the process, much else. The species has surely developed the capacity to do just that, and a hypothetical extraterrestrial observer might well conclude that humans have demonstrated that capacity throughout their history, dramatically in the past few hundred years, with an assault on the environment that sustains life, on the diversity of more complex organisms, and with cold and calculated savagery, on each other as well. Two Superpowers The year 2003 opened with many indications that concerns about human survival are all too realistic. To mention just a few examples, in the early fall of 2002 it was learned that a possibly terminal nuclear war was barely avoided forty years earlier. Immediately after this startling discovery, the Bush administration blocked UN efforts to ban the militarization of space, a serious threat to survival. The administration also terminated international negotiations to prevent biological warfare and moved to ensure the inevitability of an attack on Iraq, despite popular opposition that was without historical precedent. Aid organizations with extensive experience in Iraq and studies by respected medical organizations warned that the planned invasion might precipitate a humanitarian catastrophe. The warnings were ignored by Washington and evoked little media interest. A high-level US task force concluded that attacks with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) within the United States are "likely," and would become more so in the event of war with Iraq. Numerous specialists and intelligence agencies issued similar warnings, adding that Washington's belligerence, not only with regard to Iraq, was increasing the long-term threat of international terrorism and proliferation of WMD. These warnings too were dismissed.
Noam Chomsky
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Hegemony or Survival
In September 2002 the Bush administration announced its National Security Strategy, which declared the right to resort to force to eliminate any perceived challenge to US global hegemony, which is to be permanent. The new grand strategy aroused deep concern worldwide, even within the foreign policy elite at home. Also in September, a propaganda campaign was launched to depict Saddam Hussein as an imminent threat to the United States and to insinuate that he was responsible for the 9-11 atrocities and was planning others. The campaign, timed to the onset of the midterm congressional elections, was highly successful in shifting attitudes. It soon drove American public opinion off the global spectrum and helped the administration achieve electoral aims and establish Iraq as a proper test case for the newly announced doctrine of resort to force at will. President Bush and his associates also persisted in undermining international efforts to reduce threats to the environment that are recognized to be severe, with pretexts that barely concealed their devotion to narrow sectors of private power. The administration's Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), wrote Science magazine editor Donald Kennedy, is a travesty that "included no recommendations for emission limitation or other forms of mitigation," contenting itself with "voluntary reduction targets, which, even if met, would allow US emission rates to continue to grow at around 14% per decade." The CCSP did not even consider the likelihood, suggested by "a growing body of evidence," that the short-term warming changes it ignores "will trigger an abrupt nonlinear process," producing dramatic temperature changes that could carry extreme risks for the United States, Europe, and other temperate zones. The Bush administration's "contemptuous pass on multilateral engagement with the global warming problem," Kennedy continued, is the "stance that began the long continuing process of eroding its friendships in Europe," leading to "smoldering resentment."2 By October 2002 it was becoming hard to ignore the fact that the world was "more concerned about the unbridled use of American power than ... about the threat posed by Saddam Hussein," and "as intent on limiting the giant's power as ... in taking away the despot's weapons."3 World concerns mounted in the months that followed, as the giant made clear its intent to attack Iraq even if the UN inspections it reluctantly tolerated failed to unearth weapons that would provide a pretext. By December, support for Washington's war plans scarcely reached 10 percent almost anywhere outside the US, according to international polls. Two months later, after enormous worldwide protests, the press reported that "there may still be two superpowers on the planet: the United States and world public opinion" ("the United States" here meaning state power, not the public or even elite opinion).4 By early 2003, studies revealed that fear of the United States had reached remarkable heights throughout the world, along with distrust of the political leadership. Dismissal of elementary human rights and needs was matched by a display of contempt for democracy for which no parallel comes easily to mind, accompanied by professions of sincere dedication to human rights and democracy. The unfolding events should be deeply disturbing to those who have concerns about the world they are leaving to their grandchildren. Though Bush planners are at an extreme end of the traditional US policy spectrum, their programs and doctrines have many precursors, both in US history and among earlier aspirants to global power. More ominously, their decisions may not be irrational within the framework of prevailing ideology and the institutions that embody it. There is ample historical precedent for the willingness of leaders to threaten or resort to violence in the face of significant risk of catastrophe. But the stakes are far higher today. The choice between hegemony and survival has rarely, if ever, been so starkly posed.
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Let us try to unravel some of the many strands that enter into this complex tapestry, focusing attention on the world power that proclaims global hegemony. Its actions and guiding doctrines must be a primary concern for everyone on the planet, particularly, of course, for Americans. Many enjoy unusual advantages and freedom, hence the ability to shape the future, and should face with care the responsibilities that are the immediate corollary of such privilege. Enemy Territory Those who want to face their responsibilities with a genuine commitment to democracy and freedom—even to decent survival— should recognize the barriers that stand in the way. In violent states these are not concealed. In more democratic societies barriers are more subtle. While methods differ sharply from more brutal to more free societies, the goals are in many ways similar: to ensure that the "great beast," as Alexander Hamilton called the people, does not stray from its proper confines. Controlling the general population has always been a dominant concern of power and privilege, particularly since the first modern democratic revolution in seventeenth-century England. The selfdescribed "men of best quality" were appalled as a "giddy multitude of beasts in men's shapes" rejected the basic framework of the civil conflict raging in England between king and Parliament, and called for government "by countrymen like ourselves, that know our wants," not by "knights and gentlemen that make us laws, that are chosen for fear and do but oppress us, and do not know the people's sores." The men of best quality recognized that if the people are so "depraved and corrupt" as to "confer places of power and trust upon wicked and undeserving men, they forfeit their power in this behalf unto those that are good, though but a few." Almost three centuries later, Wilsonian idealism, as it is standardly termed, adopted a rather similar stance. Abroad, it is Washington's responsibility to ensure that government is in the hands of "the good, though but a few." At home, it is necessary to safeguard a system of elite decision-making and public ratification —"polyarchy," in the terminology of political science—not democracy.5 As president, Woodrow Wilson himself did not shrink from severely repressive policies even within the United States, but such measures are not normally available in places where popular struggles have won a substantial measure of freedom and rights. By Wilson's day it was widely recognized by elite sectors in the US and Britain that within their societies, coercion was a tool of diminishing utility, and that it would be necessary to devise new means to tame the beast, primarily through control of opinion and attitude. Huge industries have since developed devoted to these ends. Wilson's own view was that an elite of gentlemen with "elevated ideals" must be empowered to preserve "stability and righteousness."6 Leading public intellectuals agreed. "The public must be put in its place," Walter Lippmann declared in his progressive essays on democracy. That goal could be achieved in part through "the manufacture of consent," a "self-conscious art and regular organ of popular government." This "revolution" in the "practice of democracy" should enable a "specialized class" to manage the "common interests" that "very largely elude public opinion entirely." In essence, the Leninist ideal. Lippmann had observed the revolution in the practice of democracy firsthand as a member of Wilson's Committee on Public Information, which was established to coordinate wartime propaganda and achieved great success in whipping the population into war fever. The "responsible men" who are the proper decision-makers, Lippmann continued, must "live free of the trampling and the roar of a bewildered herd." These "ignorant and meddlesome outsiders" are to be "spectators," not "participants." The herd does have a "function": to trample periodically in support of one or another element of the leadership class in an election. Unstated is that the Noam Chomsky
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responsible men gain that status not by virtue of any special talent or knowledge but by willing subordination to the systems of actual power and loyalty to their operative principles—crucially, that basic decisions over social and economic life are to be kept within institutions with top-down authoritarian control, while the participation of the beast is to be limited to a diminished public arena. Just how diminished the public arena should be is a matter of debate. Neoliberal initiatives of the past thirty years have been designed to restrict it, leaving basic decision-making within largely unaccountable private tyrannies, linked closely to one another and to a few powerful states. Democracy can then survive, but in sharply reduced form. The Reagan-Bush sectors have taken an extreme position in this regard, but the policy spectrum is fairly narrow. Some argue that it scarcely exists at all, mocking the pundits who "actually make a living contrasting the finer points of the sitcoms on NBC with those broadcast on CBS" during election campaigns: "Through tacit agreement the two major parties approach the contest for the presidency [as] political kabuki [in which] the players know their roles and everyone sticks to the script," "striking poses" that cannot be taken seriously.7 If the public escapes its marginalization and passivity, we face a "crisis of democracy" that must be overcome, liberal intellectuals explain, in part through measures to discipline the institutions responsible for "the indoctrination of the young"—schools, universities, churches, and the like— and perhaps even through government control of the media, if self-censorship does not suffice.8 In taking these views, contemporary intellectuals are drawing on good constitutional sources. James Madison held that power must be delegated to "the wealth of the nation," "the more capable set of men," who understand that the role of government is "to protect the minority of the opulent against the majority." Precapitalist in his worldview, Madison had faith that the "enlightened Statesman" and "benevolent philosopher" who were to exercise power would "discern the true interest of their country" and guard the public interest against the "mischief" of democratic majorities. The mischief would be avoided, Madison hoped, under the system of fragmentation he devised. In later years he came to fear that severe problems would arise with the likely increase of those who "will labor under all the hardships of life, and secretly sigh for a more equal distribution of its benefits." A good deal of modern history reflects these conflicts over who will make decisions, and how. Recognition that control of opinion is the foundation of government, from the most despotic to the most free, goes back at least to David Hume, but a qualification should be added. It is far more important in the more free societies, where obedience cannot be maintained by the lash. It is only natural that the modern institutions of thought control—frankly called propaganda before the word became unfashionable because of totalitarian associations—should have originated in the most free societies. Britain pioneered with its Ministry of Information, which undertook "to direct the thought of most of the world." Wilson followed soon after with his Committee on Public Information. Its propaganda successes inspired progressive democratic theorists and the modern public-relations industry. Leading participants in the CPI, like Lippmann and Edward Bernays, quite explicitly drew from these achievements of thought control, which Bernays called "the engineering of consent, ... the very essence of the democratic process." The term propaganda became an entry in the Encyclopaedia Britannica in 1922 and in the Encyclopedia of Social Sciences a decade later, with Harold Lasswel's scholarly endorsement of the new techniques for controlling the public mind. The methods of the pioneers were particularly significant, Randal Marlin writes in his history of propaganda, because of their "widespread imitation ... by Nazi Germany, South Africa, the Soviet Union, and the US Pentagon," though the achievements of the PR industry dwarf them all.9
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Problems of domestic control become particularly severe when the governing authorities carry out policies that are opposed by the general population. In those cases, the political leadership may be tempted to follow the path of the Reagan administration, which established an Office of Public Diplomacy to manufacture consent for its murderous policies in Central America. One high government official described its Operation Truth as "a huge psychological operation of the kind the military conducts to influence a population in denied or enemy territory"—a frank characterization of pervasive attitudes toward the domestic population.10 Enemy Territory Abroad While the enemy at home often has to be controlled by intensive propaganda, beyond the borders more direct means are available. The leaders of the current Bush administration—mostly recycled from more reactionary sectors of the Reagan-Bush I administrations—provided sufficiently clear illustrations during their earlier stints in office. When the traditional regime of violence and repression was challenged by the Church and other miscreants in the Central American domains of US power, the Reagan administration responded with a "war on terror," declared as soon as it took office in 1981. Not surprisingly, the US initiative instantly became a terrorist war—a campaign of slaughter, torture, and barbarism—that soon extended to other regions of the world as well. In one country, Nicaragua, Washington had lost control of the armed forces that had traditionally subdued the region's population, one of the bitter legacies of Wilsonian idealism. The US-backed Somoza dictatorship was overthrown by the Sandinista rebels, and the murderous National Guard was dismantled. Therefore Nicaragua had to be subjected to a campaign of international terrorism that left the country in ruins. Even the psychological effects of Washington's terrorist war are severe. The spirit of exuberance, vitality, and optimism that followed the overthrow of the dictatorship could not long survive as the reigning superpower intervened to dash the hopes that a grim history might finally take a different course. In the other Central American countries targeted by the Reaganite "war on terror," forces equipped and trained by the United States maintained control. Without an army to defend the population against the terrorists—that is, the security forces themselves— atrocities were even worse. The record of murder, torture, and devastation was extensively reported by human rights organizations, church groups, Latin American scholars, and many others, but it remained little known to citizens of the state that bore prime responsibility, and was quickly effaced.11 By the mid-1980s, the US-backed state terrorist campaigns had created societies "affected by terror and panic ... collective intimidation and generalized fear," in the words of a leading Church-based Salvadoran human rights organization: the population had "internalized acceptance" of "the daily and frequent use of violent means" and "the frequent appearance of tortured bodies." Returning from a brief visit to his native Guatemala, journalist Julio Godoy wrote that "one is tempted to believe that some people in the White House worship Aztec gods—with the offering of Central American blood." He had fled a year earlier when his newspaper, La Epoca, was blown up by state terrorists, an operation that aroused no interest in the United States: attention was carefully focused on the misdeeds of the official enemy, real no doubt but hardly detectable given the scale of USbacked state terror in the region. The White House, Godoy wrote, installed and supported forces in Central America that could "easily compete against Nicolae Ceausescu's Securitate for the World Cruelty Prize."12 After the terrorist commanders had achieved their goals, the consequences were reviewed at a conference in San Salvador of Jesuits and lay associates, who had more than enough personal experience to draw on, quite apart from what they had observed through the grisly decade of the Noam Chomsky
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1980s. The conference concluded that it does not suffice to focus on the terror alone. It is no less important "to explore ... what weight the culture of terror has had in domesticating the expectations of the majority," preventing them from considering "alternatives to the demands of the powerful."13 Not only in Central America. Destroying hope is a critically important project. And when it is achieved, formal democracy is allowed—even preferred, if only for public-relations purposes. In more honest circles, much of this is conceded. Of course, it is understood much more profoundly by the beasts in men's shapes who endure the consequences of challenging the imperatives of stability and order. These are all matters that the second superpower, world public opinion, should make every effort to understand if it hopes to escape the containment to which it is subjected and to take seriously the ideals of justice and freedom that come easily to the lips but are harder to defend and advance.
Noam Chomsky
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Chapter 2 Imperial Grand Strategy
High on the global agenda by fall 2002 was the declared intention of the most powerful state in history to maintain its hegemony through the threat or use of military force, the dimension of power in which it reigns supreme. In the official rhetoric of the National Security Strategy, "Our forces will be strong enough to dissuade potential adversaries from pursuing a military build-up in hopes of surpassing, or equaling, the power of the United States."1 One well-known international affairs specialist, John Ikenberry, describes the declaration as a "grand strategy [that] begins with a fundamental commitment to maintaining a unipolar world in which the United States has no peer competitor," a condition that is to be "permanent [so] that no state or coalition could ever challenge [the US] as global leader, protector, and enforcer." The declared "approach renders international norms of self-defense?enshrined by Article 51 of the UN Charter?almost meaningless." More generally, the doctrine dismisses international law and institutions as of "little value." Ikenberry continues: "The new imperial grand strategy presents the United States [as] a revisionist state seeking to parlay its momentary advantages into a world order in which it runs the show," prompting others to find ways to "work around, undermine, contain and retaliate against U.S. power." The strategy threatens to "leave the world more dangerous and divided" and the United States less secure,"2 a view widely shared within the foreign policy elite. Enforcing Hegemony The imperial grand strategy asserts the right of the United States to undertake "preventive war" at will: Preventive, not preemptive.3 Preemptive war might fall within the framework of international law. Thus if Russian bombers had been detected approaching the US from the military base in Grenada conjured up by the Reagan administration in 1983, with the clear intent to bomb, then, under a reasonable interpretation of the UN Charter, a preemptive attack destroying the planes and perhaps even the Grenadan base would have been justifiable. Cuba, Nicaragua, and many others could have exercised the same right for many years while under attack from the US, though of course the weak would have to be insane to implement their rights. But the justifications for preemptive war, whatever they might be, do not hold for preventive war, particularly as that concept is interpreted by its current enthusiasts: the use of military force to eliminate an imagined or invented threat, so that even the term preventive is too charitable. Preventive war falls within the category of war crimes. If indeed it is an idea "whose time has come,"4 then the world is in deep trouble. As the invasion of Iraq began, the prominent historian and Kennedy adviser Arthur Schlesinger wrote that The president has adopted a policy of "anticipatory self-defense" that is alarmingly similar to the policy that imperial Japan employed at Pearl Harbor, on a date which, as an earlier American president said it would, lives in infamy. Franklin D. Roosevelt was right, but today it is we Americans who live in infamy.5 He added that "the global wave of sympathy that engulfed the United States after 9-11 has given way to a global wave of hatred of American arrogance and militarism," and even in friendly Noam Chomsky
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countries the public regards Bush "as a greater threat to peace than Saddam Hussein." International law specialist Richard Falk finds it "inescapable" that the Iraq war was a "Crime against Peace of the sort for which surviving German leaders were indicted, prosecuted, and punished at the Nuremberg trials."6 Some defenders of the strategy recognize that it runs roughshod over international law but see no problem in that. The whole framework of international law is just "hot air," legal scholar Michael Glennon writes: "The grand attempt to subject the rule of force to the rule of law" should be deposited in the ashcan of history" a convenient stance for the one state able to adopt the new nonrules for its purposes, since it spends almost as much as the rest of the world combined on means of violence and is forging new and dangerous paths in developing means of destruction, over nearunanimous world opposition. The proof that the system is all "hot air" is straightforward: Washington "made it clear that it intends to do all it can to maintain its preeminence," then "announced that it would ignore" the UN Security Council over Iraq and declared more broadly that "it would no longer be bound by the [UN] Charter's rules governing the use of force." QED. Accordingly, the rules have "collapsed" and "the entire edifice came crashing down." This, Glennon concludes, is a good thing, since the US is the leader of the "enlightened states" and therefore "must resist [any effort] to curb its use of force."7 The enlightened leader is also free to change the rules at will. When the military forces occupying Iraq failed to discover the weapons of mass destruction that allegedly justified the invasion, the administration's stance shifted from "absolute certainty" that Iraq possessed WMD on a scale that required immediate military action to the assertion that American accusations had been "justified by the discovery of equipment that potentially could be used to produce weapons." Senior officials suggested a "refinement in the controversial concept of a 'preventive war' " that entitles Washington to take military action "against a country that has deadly weapons in mass quantities." The revision "suggests instead that the administration will act against a hostile regime that has nothing more than the intent and ability to develop [WMD]."8 Virtually any country has the potential and ability to produce WMD, and intent is in the eye of the beholder. Hence the refined version of the grand strategy effectively grants Washington the right of arbitrary aggression. Lowering the bar for the resort to force is the most significant consequence of the collapse of the proclaimed argument for the invasion. The goal of the imperial grand strategy is to prevent any challenge to the "power, position, and prestige of the United States." The quoted words are not those of Dick Cheney or Donald Rumsfeld, or any of the other statist reactionaries who formulated the National Security Strategy of September 2002. Rather, they were spoken by the respected liberal elder statesman Dean Acheson in 1963. He was justifying US actions against Cuba in full knowledge that Washington's international terrorist campaign aimed at "regime change" had been a significant factor in bringing the world close to nuclear war only a few months earlier, and that it was resumed immediately after the Cuban missile crisis was resolved. Nevertheless, he instructed the American Society of International Law that no "legal issue" arises when the US responds to a challenge to its "power, position, and prestige." Acheson's doctrine was subsequently invoked by the Reagan administration, at the other end of the political spectrum, when it rejected World Court jurisdiction over its attack on Nicaragua, dismissed the court order to terminate its crimes, and then vetoed two Security Council resolutions affirming the court judgment and calling on all states to observe international law. State Department legal adviser Abraham Sofaer explained that most of the world cannot "be counted on to share our view" and that "this same majority often opposes the United States on important international questions." Accordingly, we must "reserve to ourselves the power to determine" which matters fall "essentially Noam Chomsky
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within the domestic jurisdiction of the United States"" in this case, the actions that the court condemned as the "unlawful use of force" against Nicaragua; in lay terms, international terrorism.9 Contempt for international law and institutions was particularly flagrant in the Reagan-Bush years" the first reign of Washington's current incumbents" and their successors continued to make it clear that the US reserved the right to act "unilaterally when necessary," including the "unilateral use of military power" to defend such vital interests as "ensuring uninhibited access to key markets, energy supplies, and strategic resources."10 But the posture was not exactly new. The basic principles of the imperial grand strategy of September 2002 go back to the early days of World War II. Even before the US entered the war, high-level planners and analysts concluded that in the postwar world the US would seek "to hold unquestioned power," acting to ensure the "limitation of any exercise of sovereignty" by states that might interfere with its global designs. They recognized further that "the foremost requirement" to secure these ends was "the rapid fulfillment of a program of complete rearmament"" then, as now, a central component of "an integrated policy to achieve military and economic supremacy for the United States." At the time, these ambitions were limited to "the non-German world," which was to be organized under the US aegis as a "Grand Area," including the Western Hemisphere, the former British Empire, and the Far East. After it became fairly clear that Germany would be defeated, the plans were extended to include as much of Eurasia as possible.11 The precedents, barely sampled here, reveal the narrow range of the planning spectrum. Policy flows from an institutional framework of domestic power, which remains fairly stable. Economic decision-making power is highly centralized, and John Dewey scarcely exaggerated when he described politics as "the shadow cast on society by big business." It is only natural that state policy should seek to construct a world system open to US economic penetration and political control, tolerating no rivals or threats.12 A crucial corollary is vigilance to block any moves toward independent development that might become a "virus infecting others," in the terminology of planners. That is a leading theme of postwar history, often disguised under thin Cold War pretexts that were also exploited by the superpower rival in its narrower domains. The basic missions of global management have endured from the early postwar period, among them: containing other centers of global power within the "overall framework of order" managed by the United States; maintaining control of the world's energy supplies; barring unacceptable forms of independent nationalism; and overcoming "crises of democracy" within domestic enemy territory. The missions assume different forms, notably in periods of fairly sharp transition: the changes in the international economic order from about 1970; the restoration of the superpower enemy to something like its traditional quasi-colonial status twenty years later; the threat of international terrorism aimed at the United States itself from the early 1990s, shockingly consummated on 9-11. Over the years, tactics have been refined and modified to deal with these shifts, progressively ratcheting up the means of violence and driving our endangered species closer to the edge of catastrophe. Nevertheless, the September 2002 unveiling of the imperial grand strategy justifiably sounded alarm bells. Acheson and Sofaer were describing policy guidelines, and within elite circles. Their stands are known only to specialists or readers of dissident literature. Other cases may be regarded as worldly-wise reiterations of the maxim of Thucydides that "large nations do what they wish, while small nations accept what they must." In contrast, Cheney-Rumsfeld-Powell and their associates are officially declaring an even more extreme policy, one aimed at permanent global hegemony by reliance on force where necessary. They intend to be heard, and took action at once to put the world on notice that they mean what they say. That is a significant difference. Noam Chomsky
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New Norms of International Law The declaration of the grand strategy was rightly understood to be an ominous step in world affairs. It is not enough, however, for a great power to declare an official policy. It must go on to establish the policy as a new norm of international law by carrying out exemplary actions. Distinguished specialists and public intellectuals may then soberly explain that law is a flexible living instrument so that the new norm is now available as a guide to action. Accordingly, as the new imperial strategy was announced, the war drums began to beat to rouse public enthusiasm for an attack on Iraq. At the same time the midterm election campaign opened. The conjunction, already noted, should be kept in mind. The target of preventive war must have several characteristics: 1. It must be virtually defenseless. 2. It must be important enough to be worth the trouble. 3. There must be a way to portray it as the ultimate evil and an imminent threat to our survival. Iraq qualified on all counts. The first two conditions are obvious. The third is easy to establish. It is only necessary to repeat the impassioned orations of Bush, Blair, and their colleagues: the dictator "is assembling the world's most dangerous weapons [in order to] dominate, intimidate, or attack"; and he "has already used them on whole villages" leaving thousands of his own citizens dead, blind, or transfigured. ... If this is not evil, then evil has no meaning."13 The president's eloquent denunciation in his January 2003 State of the Union address surely rings true. And certainly those who contribute to enhancing evil should not enjoy impunity" among them, the speaker of those lofty words and his current associates, who long supported the man of ultimate evil in full awareness of his crimes. It is impressive to see how easy it is, while recounting the monster's worst offenses, to suppress the crucial words "with our help, which continued because we didn't care." Praise and support shifted to denunciation as soon as the monster committed his first authentic crime: disobeying (or perhaps misunderstanding) orders by invading Kuwait in 1990. Punishment was severe”for his subjects. The tyrant, however, escaped unscathed and was further strengthened by the sanctions regime then imposed by his former friends. As the time approached to demonstrate the new norm of preventive war in September 2002, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice warned that the next evidence of Saddam Hussein's intentions might be a mushroom cloud" presumably in New York; Hussein's neighbors, including Israeli intelligence, dismissed the allegations, which were later undermined by the UN inspectors, though Washington continued to claim otherwise. From the first moments of the propaganda offensive, it was apparent that the pronouncements lacked credibility. " 'This administration is capable of any lie ... in order to advance its war goal in Iraq,' says a US government source in Washington with some two decades of experience in intelligence." Washington opposed inspections, he suggested, because it feared that nothing much would be found. The president's claims about Iraqi threats "should be viewed as transparent attempts to scare Americans into supporting a war," two leading international-relations scholars added. That is standard operating procedure. Washington still refuses to provide evidence to support its 1990 claims of a huge Iraqi military buildup on the Saudi border, the primary justification offered for the 1991 war, claims instantly undermined by the one journal that investigated them, but to no effect.14 Evidence or not, the president and his associates issued grim warnings about the dire threat Saddam posed to the United States and to his neighbors, and his links to international terrorists, hinting broadly that he was involved in the 9-11 attacks. The government-media propaganda assault had its Noam Chomsky
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effects. Within weeks, some 60 percent of Americans came to regard Saddam Hussein as "an immediate threat to the US" who must be removed quickly in self-defense. By March, almost half believed that Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the 9-11 attacks and that the hijackers included Iraqis. Support for the war was strongly correlated with these beliefs.15 Abroad, "public diplomacy ... failed badly," the international press reported, but "at home it has succeeded brilliantly in linking the war on Iraq with the trauma of September 11. ... [N]early 90 percent believe [Saddam's] regime is aiding and abetting terrorists who are planning future strikes against the US." Political analyst Anatol Lieven commented that most Americans had been "duped ... by a propaganda programme which for systematic mendacity has few parallels in peacetime democracies."16 The September 2002 propaganda campaign also proved sufficient to give the administration a bare majority in the midterm elections, as voters put aside their immediate concerns and huddled under the umbrella of power in fear of the demonic enemy. Public diplomacy worked its magic with Congress instantaneously. In October, Congress granted the president authority to go to war "to defend the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq." This particular script is familiar. In 1985, President Reagan declared a national emergency, renewed annually, because "the policies and the actions of the government of Nicaragua constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States." In 2002, Americans again had to tremble in fear, this time before Iraq. The brilliant success of public diplomacy at home was revealed once again when the president "provided a powerful Reaganesque finale to a six-week war" on the deck of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln on May 1, 2003. He was free to declare" without concern for skeptical domestic comment" that he had won a "victory in a war on terror" by having "removed an ally of Al Qaeda."17 It is immaterial that the alleged link between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden, in fact, his bitter enemy, was based on no credible evidence and largely dismissed by competent observers. Also immaterial is the only known connection between the Iraq invasion and the threat of terror: that the invasion enhanced the threat, as had been widely predicted; it appears to have been a "huge setback in the 'war on terror' " by sharply increasing Al Qaeda recruitment.18 The propaganda impact persisted past the end of the war. After the failure of intense efforts to discover WMD, a third of the population believed that US forces had found WMD and more than 20 percent believed Iraq had used them during the war.19 These may simply be the reactions of people who are subject to fear of just about anything after many years of intense propaganda designed to tame the "great beast" by inducing panic. The phrase "powerful Reaganesque finale" is presumably a reference to Reagan's proud announcement that the US was "standing tall" after having overcome the terrible threat posed by Grenada. Astute commentators added that Bush's carefully staged USS Abraham Lincoln extravaganza marked "the beginning of his 2004 reelection campaign," which the White House hopes "will be built as much as possible around national-security themes, a staple of the campaign being the removal of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein." To further drive home the message, the official campaign opening was delayed until mid-September 2004 so that the Republican Convention, meeting in New York, would be able to celebrate the wartime leader who alone can save Americans from a reenactment of 9-11, as he did in Iraq. The electoral campaign will focus on "the battle of Iraq, not the war," chief Republican political strategist Karl Rove explained. This is part of a "far larger and longer war against terrorism that [Rove] sees clearly, perchance fortuitously, stretching well toward Election Day 2004."20 And surely beyond. By September 2002, then, all three necessary factors for establishing the new norm of international Noam Chomsky
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law were in place: Iraq was defenseless, extremely important, and an imminent threat to our very existence. There was always the possibility that things might go wrong. But it was unlikely, at least for the invaders. The disparity of force was so phenomenal that overwhelming victory was assured, and any humanitarian consequences could be blamed on Saddam Hussein. If unpleasant, they would not be investigated, and traces would disappear from view, at least if the past is any guide. Victors do not investigate their own crimes, so that little is known about them, a principle that brooks few exceptions: the death toll of the US wars in Indochina, for example, is not known within a range of millions. The same principle underlay the war crimes trials after World War II. The operational definition of crimes of war and crimes against humanity was straightforward: crimes qualified as crimes if they were carried out by the enemy, not by the Allies. Destruction of urban civilian concentrations, for example, was excluded. The principle has been applied in subsequent tribunals, but only to defeated enemies or others who can be safely despised. After the invasion of Iraq was declared a success, it was publicly recognized that one motive for the war had been to establish the imperial grand strategy as a new norm: "Publication of the [National Security Strategy] was the signal that Iraq would be the first test, not the last," the New York Times reported. "Iraq became the petri dish in which this experiment in pre-emptive policy grew." A high official added that "we will not hesitate to act alone, if necessary, to exercise our right of selfdefense by acting pre-emptively," now that the norm has been established. "The exemplary nature of the whole exercise [in Iraq] is well recognized by the rest of the world," Harvard Middle East historian Roger Owen observed. Peoples and regimes will have to change the way they see the world "from a view based on the United Nations and international law to one based on an identification" with Washington's agenda. They are being instructed by the display of force to put aside "any serious considerations of national interest" in favor of reflecting "American goals."21 The need for a demonstration of strength to "maintain credibility" in the eyes of the world may have tipped the balance on the war with Iraq. In a review of planning, the Financial Times traced the decision to go to war to mid-December 2002, after Iraq's submission of its declaration on armaments to the UN. " 'There was a feeling that the White House was being mocked,' says one person who worked closely with the National Security Council during those days after the declaration was delivered on December 8. 'A tinpot dictator was mocking the president. It provoked a sense of anger inside the White House. After that point, there was no prospect of a diplomatic solution.' "22 What followed was just diplomatic theater for obfuscation while military forces were put in place. With the grand strategy not only officially declared but also implemented, the new norm of preventive war takes its place in the canon. The US may now find it possible to turn to harder cases. There are many tempting possibilities: Iran, Syria, the Andean region, and a number of others. The prospects depend in large part on whether the "second superpower" can be intimidated and contained. The modalities for establishing norms merit further reflection. Most important, only those with the guns and the faith have the authority to impose their demands on the world. A revealing example of the prerogatives of power is the widely hailed "normative revolution" that ended the millennium. After a few false starts, the 1990s became "the decade of humanitarian intervention." The new right to intervene on "humanitarian" grounds was established by the courage and altruism of the US and its allies, particularly in Kosovo and East Timor, the two jewels in the diadem. The Kosovo bombing in particular is understood by distinguished authorities to have established the norm of resort to force without Security Council authorization. A simple question arises: Why were the 1990s considered "the decade of humanitarian Noam Chomsky
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intervention" but not the 1970s? Since World War II there have been two major examples of resort to force that really did put an end to terrible crimes, in both cases arguably in self-defense: India's invasion of East Pakistan in 1971, ending a mass slaughter and other horrors, and Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia in December 1978, terminating Pol Pot's atrocities as they were picking up through 1978. Nothing remotely comparable took place under the Western aegis in the 1990s. Accordingly, someone who does not understand the conventions might be pardoned for asking why "the new norm" was not recognized as such in the 1970s. The idea is unthinkable, and the reasons seem clear. The real examples of intervention that terminated huge atrocities were carried out by the wrong people. Still worse, in both cases the US was adamantly opposed to intervention and moved instantly to punish the offender, particularly Vietnam, by subjecting it to a US-backed Chinese invasion, then even harsher sanctions than before, while the US and UK offered direct support for the ousted Khmer Rouge. It follows that the 1970s cannot have been the decade of humanitarian intervention, and no new norms could have been established then. The essential insight was formulated by a unanimous vote of the International Court of Justice in one of its earliest rulings, in 1949: The Court can only regard the alleged right of intervention as the manifestation of a policy of force, such as has, in the past, given rise to most serious abuses and such as cannot, whatever be the defects in international organization, find a place in international law ...; from the nature of things, [intervention] would be reserved for the most powerful states, and might easily lead to perverting the administration of justice itself.23 While Western powers and intellectuals were admiring themselves for having established the new norm of humanitarian intervention in the late 1990s, the rest of the world also had some thoughts on the matter. It is illuminating to see how they reacted, say, to Tony Blair's repetition of the official reasons for the bombing of Serbia in 1999: failure to bomb "would have dealt a devastating blow to the credibility of NATO" and "the world would have been less safe as a result of that." The objects of NATO's solicitude did not seem overly impressed by the need to safeguard the credibility of those who had been crushing them for centuries. Nelson Mandela, for example, condemned Blair for "encouraging international chaos, together with America, by ignoring other nations and playing 'policeman of the world' " in their attacks on Iraq in 1998 and Serbia the next year. In the world's largest democracy" which, after independence, began to recover from the grim effects of centuries of British rule" the Clinton-Blair efforts to shore up NATO's credibility and make the world safe were also not appreciated, but official and press condemnations in India remained unheard. Even in Israel, the client state par excellence, the pretensions of Clinton-Blair and a host of domestic admirers were ridiculed by leading military and political analysts as a return to old-fashioned "gunboat diplomacy" under the familiar "cloak of moralistic righteousness," and as a "danger to the world."24 Another source of information might have been the nonaligned movement, the governments of about 80 percent of the world's population at the time of their South Summit in April 2000. The meeting was the most important in their history, the first ever at the level of heads of state, who, in addition to issuing a detailed and sophisticated critical analysis of the neoliberal socioeconomic programs called "globalization" by Western ideologues, also firmly rejected "the so-called 'right' of humanitarian intervention." That stand was reiterated in the summit of nonaligned countries in Malaysia in February 2003, in the same words.25 Perhaps they had learned too much history, the hard way, to be comforted by exalted rhetoric and had heard enough about "humanitarian intervention" over the centuries. Noam Chomsky
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It is an exaggeration to say that only the most powerful are granted the authority to establish norms of appropriate behavior" for themselves. The authority is sometimes delegated to reliable clients. Thus, Israel's crimes are permitted to establish norms: for example, its regular resort to "targeted killings" of suspects" called "terrorist atrocities" when carried out by the wrong hands. In May 2003, two leading Israeli civil rights attorneys provided "a detailed list of all of the liquidations and all of the attempted assassinations that Israel's security forces carried out" during the al-Aqsa Intifada, from November 2000 through April 2003. Using official and semiofficial records, they found that "Israel carried out no less than 175 liquidation attempts"" one attempt every five days" killing 235 people, of whom 156 were suspected of crimes. "It greatly pains us to say the following," the lawyers wrote, but "the consistent, widespread policy of targeted liquidations bounds on a crime against humanity."26 Their judgment is not quite accurate. Liquidation is a crime in the wrong hands, but it is a justified, if regrettable, act of self-defense when carried out by a client, and even establishes norms for the "the boss-man called 'partner,' "27 who provides authorization. The "boss-man" himself made use of Israel's precedent with the assassination by missile of a suspect in Yemen, along with five other people who happened to be nearby, to much acclaim. The hit was "conveniently timed [as an] October surprise ... to show the incum- bent in his finest hour, on the eve of the midterm elections," and offer "a taste of what is to come."28 A more far-reaching example of establishing norms was Israel's bombing of the Osirak reactor in Iraq in June 1981. At first the attack was criticized as a violation of international law. Later, after Saddam Hussein was transformed from favored friend to unspeakable fiend in August 1990, the reaction to the Osirak bombing also shifted. Once a (minor) crime, it was now considered an honored norm, and was greatly praised for having impeded Saddam Hussein's nuclear weapons program. The norm, however, required the evasion of a few inconvenient facts. Shortly after the 1981 bombing, the Osirak site was inspected by a prominent nuclear physicist, Richard Wilson, then chair of the physics department at Harvard University. He concluded that the installation bombed was not suited for plutonium production, as Israel had charged, unlike Israel's own Dimona reactor, which had reportedly produced several hundred nuclear weapons. His conclusions were supported by the Iraqi nuclear physicist Imad Khadduri, who was in charge of experimental work at the reactor before the bombing and later fled the country. He too reported that the Osirak reactor was unsuitable for the production of plutonium, though after the Israeli bombing in 1981, Iraq took the "solid decision to go full speed ahead with weaponization." Khadduri estimated that it would have taken Iraq decades to obtain the required amount of weapons-grade material, had the program not been sharply accelerated as a result of the bombing. "Israel's action increased the determination of Arabs to produce nuclear weapons," Kenneth Waltz concluded. "Israel's strike, far from foreclosing Iraq's nuclear career, gained Iraq support from some other Arab states to pursue it."29 Whatever the facts, thanks to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait a decade later, the norm that Israel established in 1981 is now firmly in place. And if indeed the 1981 bombing accelerated the proliferation of WMD, that in no way tarnishes the deed, and teaches no lessons about the consequences of resort to force in violation of old-fashioned conceptions of international law" conceptions that must be discarded now that they have been demonstrated to be "hot air" by the boss-man's contempt for them. In the future, the US and its Israeli client and perhaps some highly favored others can resort to the norm as they see fit.
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The Rule of Law The grand strategy extends to domestic US law. As in many other countries, the government used the occasion of the terrorist atrocities of 9-11 to discipline its own population. After 9-11, often with questionable relation to terror, the Bush administration claimed, and exercised, the right to declare people" including US citizens" to be "enemy combatants" or "suspected terrorists" and to imprison them without charge or access to lawyers or family until the White House determines that its "war on terror" has been successfully concluded: that is, indefinitely. The Ashcroft Justice Department takes it to be "fundamental [that] if you hold someone as an enemy combatant, obviously you hold them without access to family members and without access to counsel." These claims of executive authority have been partially upheld by the courts, which have ruled "that a wartime president can indefinitely detain a United States citizen captured as an enemy combatant on the battlefield and deny that person access to a lawyer."30 The treatment of "enemy combatants" in Washington's Guan-tanamo prison camp in a still-occupied part of Cuba elicited substantial protest from human rights organizations and others, even the Justice Department's own inspector general, in a scathing report that the department disregarded. After the conquest of Iraq, evidence soon surfaced that Iraqi prisoners were being subjected to similar treatment: gagged, bound, hooded, beaten "in the manner of the Afghans and other captives held at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba" treatment in itself questionable under international law," to put it mildly. The Red Cross strongly protested the refusal of the US command to allow it access to prisoners of war, in violation of the Geneva Conventions, and to captured civilians.31 Moreover, the designations are capricious. An enemy combatant can be anyone that the US chooses to attack, with no credible evidence, as Washington concedes.32 Justice Department thinking is illuminated by a confidential plan leaked to the Center for Public Integrity, entitled "Domestic Security Enhancement Act of 2003." This "new assault on our civil liberties" vastly expands state power, Yale Law professor Jack Balkin writes. It undermines constitutional rights by granting the state the authority to rescind citizenship on the charge of providing "material support" to an organization on the attorney general's blacklist even if the accused has no idea that the organization has been blacklisted. "Give a few dollars to a Muslim charity Ashcroft thinks is a terrorist organization," Balkin writes, "and you could be on the next plane out of this country." The plan states that "an intent to relinquish nationality need not be manifested in words, but can be inferred from conduct"; inferred by the attorney general, whose judgment we must honor, on faith. Analogies have been drawn to the darkest days of McCarthyism, but these new proposals are more extreme. The plan also extends powers of surveillance without court authorization, permits secret arrests, and further protects the state from the scrutiny of citizens, a matter of great significance to the reactionary statists of the Bush II regime. "There is no civil right" not even the precious right of citizenship" that this Administration will not abuse to secure ever greater control over American life," Balkin concludes.33 President Bush is said to have on his desk a bust of Winston Churchill, a gift from his friend Tony Blair. Churchill had a few things to say on these topics: The power of the executive to cast a man into prison without formulating any charge known to the law, and particularly to deny him the judgment of his peers, is in the highest degree odious, and the foundation of all totalitarian government whether Nazi or Communist.34
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The powers the Bush administration is demanding go well beyond even these odious practices. Churchill's warning against such abuse of executive power for intelligence and preventive purposes was issued in 1943, when Britain was facing possible destruction at the hands of the most vicious mass murder machine in human history. Perhaps someone in the Justice Department might want to contemplate the thoughts of the man whose image faces their leader every day. International Law and Institutions The imperial grand strategy effectively dispenses with "the international rule of law as an overarching goal of policy," a critical review by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences points out, noting that neither international law nor the UN Charter is even mentioned in the National Security Strategy. "The primacy of law over force [that] has been a major thread in American foreign policy since the end of World War II" disappears from the new strategy. Also "all but disappeared" are the international institutions "that extend the reach of law, and seek to constrain the powerful as well as to grant the weak a voice." From now on, force reigns, and the US will exercise that force as it sees fit. The analysts conclude that the strategy will increase "the motivation of U.S. enemies to act [in reaction to their growing] resentment of perceived intimidation." They will seek "cheap and easy ways of exploiting U.S. vulnerabilities," which abound. Lack of concern with this on the part of Bush planners is also illustrated by the fact that the National Security Strategy contains just a single sentence on enhancing arms control efforts, for which the administration has only contempt.35 Writing in the Academy's journal, two international affairs specialists describe the plans for "extended confrontation, not political accommodation," as "inherently provocative." They warn that "the apparent commitment of the United States to active military confrontation for decisive national advantage" carries immense risks.36 Many concur, even on narrow grounds of self-interest. The Academy's assessment of the primacy of law over force in American policy requires serious qualifications. Since World War II, the US government has adopted the standard practice of powerful states, regularly choosing force over law when that was considered expedient for "the national interest," a technical term referring to the special interests of domestic sectors that are in a position to determine policy. For the Anglo-American world, that truism is as old as Adam Smith. He bitterly condemned the "merchants and manufacturers" in England who were "by far the principal architects" of policy and made sure their own interests were "most peculiarly attended to," no matter how "grievous" the effect on others, including the victims of their "savage injustice" abroad and the people of England as well.37 Truisms have a way of remaining true. The dominant elite view with regard to the UN was well expressed in 1992 by Francis Fukuyama, who had served in the Reagan-Bush State Department: the UN is "perfectly serviceable as an instrument of American unilateralism and indeed may be the primary mechanism through which that unilateralism will be exercised in the future." His prediction proved accurate, presumably because it was based on consistent practice going back to the early days of the UN. At that time, the state of the world guaranteed that the UN would be virtually an instrument of US power. The institution was greatly admired, though elite distaste for it increased notably in subsequent years. The shift of attitude roughly traced the course of decolonization, which opened a small window for "the tyranny of the majority": that is, for concerns emanating from outside the centers of concentrated power that the business press calls the "de facto world government" of "the masters of the universe."38 When the UN fails to serve as "an instrument of American unilateralism" on issues of elite concern, it is dismissed. One of many illustrations is the record of vetoes. Since the 1960s the US has been far in the lead in vetoing Security Council resolutions on a wide range of issues, even those calling Noam Chomsky
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on states to observe international law. Britain is second, France and Russia far behind. Even that record is skewed by the fact that Washington's enormous power often compels the weakening of resolutions to which it objects, or keeps crucial matters off the agenda entirely" Washington's wars in Indochina, to cite one example that was of more than a little concern to the world. Saddam Hussein was rightly condemned for his failure to comply fully with numerous Security Council resolutions, though less was said about the fact that the US rejected the same resolutions. The most important of them, Resolution 687, called for ending sanctions when Iraqi compliance was determined by the Security Council, and moving on to eliminate WMD and delivery systems from the Middle East (Article 14, a coded reference to Israel). There was never a possibility that the US would accept Article 14, and it was removed from discussion. President Bush I and his secretary of state, James Baker, announced at once that the US would reject the primary condition of 687 as well, barring even "relaxation of sanctions as long as Saddam Hussein is in power." Clinton concurred. His secretary of state, Warren Christopher, wrote in 1994 that Iraqi compliance is not "enough to justify lifting the embargo," thus "changing the rules unilaterally," Dilip Hiro points out.39 Washington's use of UN inspectors (UNSCOM) to spy on Iraq also undermined inspections, which were terminated by Iraq after Clinton and Blair bombed the country in December 1998 in defiance of the UN. The likely outcome of these inspections is known with confidence only to ideologues on all sides. It was clear enough throughout, however, that disarmament through international inspectors was not the US-UK objective and that the two warrior states would not comply with the relevant UN resolutions. Some commentators have pointed out that Israel has the lead in violating resolutions. US-backed Turkey and Morocco have also violated more Security Council resolutions than Iraq. These resolutions have to do with highly significant matters: aggression, harsh and brutal practices during decades-long military occupations, grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions (war crimes, in terms of US law), and other matters that rank higher than incomplete disarmament. The resolutions concerning Iraq also refer to internal repression, and in this respect Saddam Hussein's record was horrendous, but that was (regrettably) only a side issue, as revealed by the support for him by the current incumbents in Washington well past his worst crimes and the war with Iran. Resolutions concerning Israel do not come under Chapter VII, which would carry the threat of force, but any such proposal would instantly be vetoed by the US. The veto brings up another important matter missing from the discussions of Iraq's incomplete compliance with Security Council resolutions. Plainly, if Iraq had had the right of veto, it would have been in defiance of no UN resolutions. No less plainly, any serious discussion of defiance of the Security Council must take into account vetoes, the most extreme form of noncompliance. That exercise is excluded, however, because of the conclusions that would follow at once. The issue of the veto was not entirely ignored during the preparation for the Iraq invasion. France's threat to veto a UN declaration of war was bitterly condemned. "They said they are going to veto anything that held Saddam to account," Bush declared, with his familiar concern for truth, as he delivered his ultimatum to the Security Council on March 16, 2003. There was much fury about France's iniquity, and talk of actions to punish the country that did not follow orders from Crawford, Texas. In general, threat of veto by others is a scandal, revealing the "failure of diplomacy" and the miserable behavior of the UN. To select virtually at random, "If lesser powers contrive to turn the council into a forum for counterbalancing American power with votes, words, and public appeals, they will further erode its legitimacy and credibility," according to Edward Luck, director of the Center on International Organization at Columbia University.40 Routine resort to the veto by the world champion is generally ignored or downplayed, occasionally hailed as Noam Chomsky
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demonstrating the principled stand of embattled Washington. But there is no concern that this erodes the legitimacy and credibility of the UN. There should have been little reason for surprise, therefore, when a senior Bush administration official explained in October 2002 that "we don't need the Security Council," so if it "wants to stay relevant, then it has to give us similar authority" to that just granted by Congress" authority to use force at will. The stand was endorsed by the president and by Secretary of State Colin Powell, who added that "obviously, the Council can always go off and have other discussions," but "we have the authority to do what we believe is necessary." Washington agreed to submit a resolution to the Security Council (UN 1441), leaving no doubt, however, that the exercise was meaningless. "Whatever the diplomatic niceties, Mr. Bush made it clear that he regarded the resolution to be all the authority he needed to act against Iraq should Mr. Hussein balk," diplomatic correspondents observed. "Though Washington would consult other members of the Security Council, it would not feel it necessary to win their approval." Echoing Powell, White House chief of staff Andrew Card explained that "the UN can meet and discuss, but we don't need their permission."41 The administration's "decent respect for the opinion of mankind [in declaring] the causes which impel" it to action was reemphasized when Powell addressed the Security Council a few months later, announcing Washington's intention to go to war. "US officials were adamant that his briefing should not be interpreted as part of a protracted effort to garner support for a resolution authorizing the use of force," the international press reported. A US official said, "We're not going to negotiate on a second resolution because we don't need to. ... If the rest of the Council wants to catch up to us we might stop briefly to sign on the dotted line," but nothing more.42 The world was placed on notice that Washington will use force as it chooses; the debating society can "catch up" and join the enterprise or suffer the consequences that befall those who are not "with us" and are therefore "with the terrorists," as the president laid out the options. Bush and Blair underscored their contempt for international law and institutions at their subsequent summit meeting at a US military base in the Azores, where they were joined by Spain's prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar. The US-UK leaders "issued an ultimatum" to the United Nations Security Council: capitulate in twenty-four hours or we will invade Iraq and impose the regime of our choice without your meaningless seal of approval, and we will do so" crucially" whether or not Saddam Hussein and his family leave the country. Our invasion is legitimate, Bush declared, because "the United States of America has the sovereign authority to use force in assuring its own national security," threatened by Iraq with or without Saddam. The UN is irrelevant because it "has not lived up to its responsibilities"" that is, to follow Washington's orders. The US will "enforce the just demands of the world" even if the world overwhelmingly objects.43 Washington also took pains to ensure that the essential hollow-ness of official declarations was in plain view, for all the world to see. At a news conference on March 6, the president stated that there is only "a single question: Has the Iraqi regime fully and unconditionally disarmed as required by 1441, or has it not?" He then immediately went on to make it clear that the answer to the single question did not matter, announcing that "when it comes to our security we really don't need anyone's permission." UN inspections and Security Council deliberations were therefore a farce, and even completely verified compliance was irrelevant. A few days earlier Bush had declared the answer to the "single question" immaterial: the US will institute the regime of its choice even if Saddam disarms completely, and even if he and his cohorts disappear, as underscored at the Azores summit.44 The president's disregard of the single question was in fact already on the record. A few months earlier, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer had informed the press that "the policy of the United Noam Chomsky
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States is regime change, with or without inspectors"; "regime change" does not mean a regime that Iraqis might prefer, but one that the conqueror will impose, calling it "democratic," which is standard practice; even Russia installed "people's democracies." Later, with the war winding down, Fleischer restored the "single question" to its primary status: Iraq's possession of WMD "is what this war was about and is about." As Bush was presenting his self-contradictory stance at his news conference, British Foreign Minister Jack Straw announced that if Saddam Hussein disarmed, "we accept that the government of Iraq stays in place," so that the "single question" is disarmament: talk about "liberation" and "democracy" is mere fluff, and Britain will not support Bush's resort to war on his grounds" except that Britain made it clear that it would do as it was told.45 Meanwhile Colin Powell contradicted the president's declaration that the US will take control of Iraq no matter what: "The question simply is: has Saddam Hussein made a strategic, political decision to comply with the United Nations Security Council resolutions [and] to get rid of his weapons of mass destruction? That's it in a nutshell... . That's the question. There is no other question." Back to the "single question," rejected by the president five days earlier and again the following day. As the invasion began, Powell returned to the "single question." Iraq "was being attacked because it had violated its 'international obligations' under its 1991 surrender agreement, which required the disclosure and disarmament of its dangerous weapons."46 Everything else that has been claimed is therefore irrelevant: the US will unilaterally decide that the inspectors should not be permitted to do their work, and the 1991 agreement entitles the US to resort to violence, contrary to its explicit wording. Pick some other day and audience and the goal is "liberation" and "democracy" not only for Iraq but for the region, a "noble dream." The message is clear: We will do what we choose, giving whatever pretext happens to be on hand. You will "catch up," or else. Unexplained is why the threat of WMD became so severe after September 2002, while before National Security Adviser Rice had accepted the consensus that "if they do acquire WMD, their weapons will be unusable because any attempt to use them will bring national obliteration."47 Punishment for being "against us" can be severe, and the benefits of catching up and remaining "relevant" are substantial. Senior US officials were dispatched to Security Council members to "urge leaders to vote with the United States on Iraq or risk 'paying a heavy price,' " not an insignificant concern for fragile countries "whose concerns drew little attention before they landed seats on the council." Mexican diplomats tried to explain to Washington's emissaries that the people "are overwhelmingly opposed to a war," but that plea was dismissed as ridiculous.48 A special problem arose for "countries that have succumbed to popular pressure to embrace democracy [and] now have a public to answer to." For them, repercussions for taking democratic forms seriously may include economic strangulation. In contrast, "Mr. Powell made clear that US political and military allies will benefit from handouts." Ari Fleischer meanwhile "hotly denied" that Bush was offering quid pro quos in exchange for votes, "evoking peals of laughter from the press corps," the Wall Street Journal reported.49 Rewards for following orders include not only financial handouts but also authorization to escalate terrorist atrocities. Russian president Vladimir Putin, whose relations with Bush are reported to be particularly soulful, was awarded "a diplomatic nod for Russia's crackdown on Chechen separatists" a move that some analysts here and in the Middle East contend could damage long-term US interests." One might imagine some other reasons to be concerned about Washington's support for state terrorism. To make it clear that such reactions are "irrelevant," the head of a Muslim charity Noam Chomsky
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was sentenced in federal court on the charge of having diverted funds to Chechens resisting the vicious Russian military occupation, just as Putin was receiving his green light. The head of the same charity was also charged with funding ambulances for Bosnia; in that case, the crime was apparently committed at about the same time that Clinton was flying Al Qaeda and Hezbollah operatives to Bosnia to support the US side in the ongoing wars.50 Turkey was offered similar inducements: a huge financial package and the right to invade Kurdish northern Iraq. Remarkably, Turkey did not fully submit, teaching a lesson in democracy to the West that aroused great ire and, as Secretary of State Powell sternly announced at once, instant punishment for the misdeed.51 The "diplomatic niceties" are for those who prefer to be deluded, as is the apparent support of Security Council members for the US-initiated Resolution 1441. The support is in fact submission; signers understood what the alternative would be. In systems of law that are intended to be taken seriously, coerced acquiescence is invalid. In international affairs, however, it is honored as diplomacy. After the Iraq war, the UN again proved "irrelevant," because its "complicated trade system for Iraq" caused problems for US companies granted contracts under US military rule. The complicated trade system was in fact imposed by the US as part of its sanctions regime, for which there was virtually no support outside the UK. But now it was in the way. Hence, in the words of a "coalition diplomat," the US wanted "the message to be, 'We're coming here [to the Security Council] because we want to, not because we have to.' " The background issue, diplomats on all sides agree, is "how much of a free hand the U.S. should be given to manage Iraqi oil and establish a successor government." Washington demands a free hand. Other countries, a large majority of the US population, and (to the extent that we have information) the people of Iraq prefer "to extend U.N. oversight there" and "to normalize Iraq's diplomatic and economic relations," as well as its internal affairs, within that framework.52 Through all the shifts of justifications and pretexts, one principle remains invariant: the US must end up in effective control of Iraq, under some facade of democracy if that proves feasible. That "America's imperial ambition" should extend to the whole world after the collapse of its sole major rival should hardly elicit surprise" and there are, needless to say, numerous predecessors, with consequences not too pleasant to recall. The current situation, however, is different. There has never in history been anything remotely like the near-monopoly of means of large-scale violence in the hands of one state" all the more reason for subjecting its practices and operative doctrines to extra-careful scrutiny. Elite Concerns Within establishment circles, there has been considerable concern that "America's imperial ambition" is a serious threat even to its own population. Their alarm reached new heights as the Bush administration declared itself to be a "revisionist state" that intends to rule the world permanently, becoming, some felt, "a menace to itself and to mankind" under the leadership of "radical nationalists" aiming for "unilateral world domination through absolute military superiority."53 Many others within the mainstream spectrum have been appalled by the adventurism and arrogance of the radical nationalists who have regained the power they wielded through the 1980s, but now operate with fewer external constraints.
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The concerns are not entirely new. During the Clinton years, the prominent political analyst Samuel Huntington observed that for much of the world the US is "becoming the rogue superpower, [considered] the single greatest external threat to their societies." Robert Jervis, then president of the American Political Science Association, warned that "in the eyes of much of the world, in fact, the prime rogue state today is the United States." Like others, they anticipated that coalitions might arise to counterbalance the rogue superpower, with threatening implications.54 Several leading figures of the foreign policy elite have pointed out that the potential targets of America's imperial ambition are not likely simply to await destruction. They "know that the United States can be held at bay only by deterrence," Kenneth Waltz has written, and that "weapons of mass destruction are the only means to deter the United States." Washington's policies are therefore leading to proliferation of WMD, Waltz concludes, tendencies accelerated by its commitment to dismantle international mechanisms to control the resort to violence. These warnings were reiterated as Bush prepared to attack Iraq: one consequence, according to Steven Miller, is that others "are likely to draw the conclusion that weapons of mass destruction are necessary to deter American intervention." Another well-known specialist warned that the "general strategy of preventive war" is likely to provide others with "overwhelming incentives to wield weapons of terror and mass destruction" as a deterrent to "the unbridled use of American power." Many have noted the likely impetus to Iranian nuclear weapons programs. And "there is no question that the lesson that the North Koreans have learned from Iraq is that it needs a nuclear deterrent," Selig Harrison commented.55 As the year 2002 drew to a close, Washington was teaching an ugly lesson to the world: if you want to defend yourself from us, you had better mimic North Korea and pose a credible military threat, in this case, conventional: artillery aimed at Seoul and at US troops near the DMZ. We will enthusiastically march on to attack Iraq, because we know that it is devastated and defenseless; but North Korea, though an even worse tyranny and vastly more dangerous, is not an appropriate target as long as it can cause plenty of harm. The lesson could hardly be more vivid. Still another concern is the "second superpower," public opinion. Not only was the "revisionism" of the political leadership without precedent; so too was the opposition to it. Comparisons are often drawn to Vietnam. The common query "What happened to the tradition of protest and dissent?" makes clear how effectively the historical record has been cleansed and how little sense there is, in many circles, of the changes in public consciousness over the past four decades. An accurate comparison is revealing: In 1962, public protest was nonexistent, despite the announcement that year that the Kennedy administration was sending the US Air Force to bomb South Vietnam, as well as initiating plans to drive millions of people into what amounted to concentration camps and launching chemical warfare programs to destroy food crops and ground cover. Protest did not reach any meaningful level until years later, after hundreds of thousands of US troops had been dispatched, densely populated areas had been demolished by saturation bombing, and the aggression had spread to the rest of Indochina. By the time protest became significant, the bitterly anticommunist military historian and Indochina specialist Bernard Fall had warned that "Vietnam as a cultural and historic entity ... is threatened with extinction" as "the countryside literally dies under the blows of the largest military machine ever unleashed on an area of this size."56 In 2002, forty years later, in striking contrast, there was large-scale, committed, and principled popular protest before the war had been officially launched. Absent the fear and illusion about Iraq that were unique to the US, prewar opposition would probably have reached much the same levels as elsewhere. That reflects a steady increase over these years in unwillingness to tolerate aggression and atrocities, one of many such changes.
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The leadership is well aware of these developments. By 1968, fear of the public was so serious that the Joint Chiefs of Staff had to consider whether "sufficient forces would still be available for civil disorder control" if more troops were sent to Vietnam. The Department of Defense feared that further troop deployments ran the risk of "provoking a domestic crisis of unprecedented proportions."57 The Reagan administration at first tried to follow Kennedy's South Vietnam model in Central America but backed down in the face of an unanticipated public reaction that threatened to undermine more important components of the policy agenda, turning instead to clandestine terror" clandestine in the sense that it could be more or less concealed from the general public. When Bush I took office in 1989, public reaction was again very much on the agenda. Incoming administrations typically commission a review of the world situation from the intelligence agencies. These reviews are secret, but in 1989 a passage was leaked concerning "cases where the U.S. confronts much weaker enemies." The analysts advised that the US must "defeat them decisively and rapidly." Any other outcome would be "embarrassing" and might "undercut political support," understood to be thin.58 We are no longer in the 1960s, when the population would tolerate a murderous and destructive war for years without visible protest. The activist movements of the past forty years have had a significant civilizing effect in many domains. By now, the only way to attack a much weaker enemy is to construct a propaganda offensive depicting it as an imminent threat or perhaps engaged in genocide, with confidence that the military campaign will scarcely resemble an actual war. Elite concerns extend to the impact of Bush administration radical nationalists on world public opinion, which was overwhelmingly opposed to their war plans and militant posturing. These have surely been factors in the general decline of trust in leadership revealed by a World Economic Forum poll released in January 2003. According to the poll, only NGO leaders had the trust of a clear majority, followed by UN and spiritual/religious leaders, then leaders of Western Europe and economic managers, and right below them, corporate executives. Far below, at the very bottom, were the leaders of the United States.59 A week after the poll was released, the annual World Economic Forum opened in Davos, Switzerland, but without the exuberance of earlier years. "The mood has darkened," the press noted: for the "movers and shakers," it was not "global party time" anymore. The founder of the WEF, Klaus Schwab, identified the most pressing reason: "Iraq will be the overwhelming theme of all the discussions." Powell's aides warned him before his presentation that the mood was "ugly" at Davos, the Wall Street Journal reported. "A chorus of international complaints about the American march toward war with Iraq was reaching a crescendo at this gathering of some 2,000 corporate executives, politicians and academics." They were not overwhelmed by Powell's "sharp new message": in his own words, "when we feel strongly about something we will lead," even if no one is following us. "We will act even if others are not prepared to join us."60 The theme of the WEF was "Building Trust," for good reasons. In his speech, Powell stressed that the US reserves the "sovereign right to take military action" when and how it chooses. He said further that no one "trusts Saddam and his regime," which was certainly true, though his comment left out some other leaders who are not trusted. Powell also assured his audience that Saddam Hussein's weapons were "meant to intimidate Iraq's neighbors," failing to explain why those neighbors did not seem to perceive the threat.61 Much as they despised the murderous tyrant, Iraq's neighbors joined the "many outside the United States mystified at why Washington is so obsessed and fearful of what is, in the end, a minor power whose wealth and power have been truncated by internationally imposed constraints." Aware of the dire effects of the sanctions on the general population, they also knew that Iraq was one of the weakest states in the Noam Chomsky
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region: its economy and military expenditures were a fraction of Kuwait's, which has 10 percent of Iraq's population, and much farther below those of others nearby.62 For these and other reasons, the neighboring countries had been mending fences with Iraq for some years over strong US opposition. Like the US Department of Defense and the CIA, they knew "perfectly well that today's Iraq poses no threat to anyone in the region, let alone in the United States," and that "To argue otherwise is dishonest."63 By the time they met, the "movers and shakers" at Davos had heard even more unpleasant news about "building trust." An opinion poll in Canada found that more than "36 percent of Canadians viewed the US as the biggest threat to world peace, against just 21 percent naming Al Qaeda, 17 percent choosing Iraq and 14 percent North Korea." That despite the fact that the general image of the US had improved to 72 percent in Canada, in contrast to dropping sharply in Western Europe. An informal poll run by Time magazine found that more than 80 percent of respondents in Europe regarded the US as the greatest threat to world peace. Even if these numbers were wrong by some substantial factor, they are dramatic. Their significance is magnified by contemporaneous international polls on the US-UK drive for war with Iraq.64 "The messages from U.S. embassies around the globe have become urgent and disturbing," the Washington Post noted in a lead story. "Many people in the world increasingly think President Bush is a greater threat to world peace than Iraqi President Saddam Hussein." "The debate has not been about Iraq," a State Department official was quoted as saying. "There is real angst in the world about our power, and what they perceive as the rawness, the arrogance, the unipolarity" of the administration's actions. The headline read, "Danger Ahead? The World Sees President Bush as a Threat." A cover story in Newsweek three weeks later, by its senior foreign affairs editor, also warned that the global debate was not about Saddam: "It is about America and its role in the new world. ... A war with Iraq, even if successful, might solve the Iraq problem. It doesn't solve the America problem. What worries people around the world above all else is living in a world shaped and dominated by one country" the United States. And they have come to be deeply suspicious and fearful of us."65 After 9-11, at a time of enormous global sympathy and solidarity with the United States, George Bush asked, "Why do they hate us?" The question was wrongly put, and the right question was scarcely addressed. But within a year, the administration succeeded in providing an answer: "Because of you and your associates, Mr. Bush, and what you have done. And if you continue, the fear and hatred you have inspired may extend to the country you have shamed as well." On that, the evidence is hard to ignore. For Osama bin Laden, it is a victory probably beyond his wildest dreams. Intentional Ignorance The fundamental assumption that lies behind the imperial grand strategy, often considered unnecessary to formulate because its truth is taken to be so obvious, is the guiding principle of Wilsonian idealism: We" at least the circles who provide the leadership and advise them" are good, even noble. Hence our interventions are necessarily righteous in intent, if occasionally clumsy in execution. In Wilson's own words, we have "elevated ideals" and are dedicated to "stability and righteousness," and it is only natural, then, as Wilson wrote in justifying the conquest of the Philippines, that "our interest must march forward, altruists though we are; other nations must see to it that they stand off, and do not seek to stay us."66 In the contemporary version, there is a guiding principle that "defines the parameters within which the policy debate occurs," a consensus so broad as to exclude only "tattered remnants" on the right Noam Chomsky
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and left and "so authoritative as to be virtually immune to challenge." The principle is "'America as historical vanguard": "History has a discernible direction and destination. Uniquely among all the nations of the world, the United States comprehends and manifests history's purpose." Accordingly, US hegemony is the realization of history's purpose, and what it achieves is for the common good, the merest truism, so that empirical evaluation is unnecessary, if not faintly ridiculous. The primary principle of foreign policy, rooted in Wilsonian idealism and carried over from Clinton to Bush II, is "the imperative of America's mission as the vanguard of history, transforming the global order and, in doing so, perpetuating its own dominance," guided by "the imperative of military supremacy, maintained in perpetuity and projected globally."67 By virtue of its unique comprehension and manifestation of history's purpose, America is entitled, indeed obligated, to act as its leaders determine to be best, for the good of all, whether others understand or not. And like its noble predecessor and current junior partner, Great Britain, America should not be deterred in realizing history's transcendent purpose even if it is "held up to obloquy" by the foolish and resentful, as was its predecessor in global rule, according to its most prestigious advocates.68 To still any qualms that might arise, it suffices to refresh our understanding that "Providence summons Americans" to the task of reforming global order: the "Wilsonian tradition ... to which all recent occupants of the Oval Office, regardless of party, have adhered"" as have, commonly, their predecessors, their counterparts elsewhere, and their most reviled enemies, with required change of names.69 But to reassure ourselves that the powerful are motivated by "elevated ideals" and "altruism" in the quest of "stability and righteousness," we have to adopt the stance called "intentional ignorance" by a critic of the terrible atrocities in Central America in the 1980s backed by the political leadership that is again at the helm in Washington.70 Adopting that stance, not only can we tidy up the past, conceding the inevitable flaws that accompany even the best of intentions, but more recently, since the advent of the new norm of humanitarian intervention, we can even go on to portray US foreign policy as having entered a "noble phase" with a "saintly glow." Washington's "post-Cold War interventions were, on the whole, noble but half-hearted; they were half-hearted because they were noble," historian Michael Mandelbaum assures us. Perhaps we are even too saintly: we must beware of "granting idealism a near exclusive hold on our foreign policy," more sober voices warn, thus neglecting our own legitimate interests in our dedicated service to others.71 Somehow, Europeans have failed to understand the unique idealism of American leaders. How can this be, since it is the merest truism? Max Boot suggests an answer. Europe has "often been driven by avarice," and the "cynical Europeans" cannot comprehend the "strain of idealism" that animates US foreign policy: "After 200 years, Europe still hasn't figured out what makes America tick." Their ineradicable cynicism leads Europeans to attribute base motives to Washington and to fail to join its noble ventures with sufficient enthusiasm. Another respected historian and political commentator, Robert Kagan, offers a different explanation. Europe's problem is that it is consumed with "paranoid, conspiratorial anti-Americanism," which has "reached a fevered intensity," though fortunately a few figures, like Berlusconi and Aznar, brave the storm.72 Unwittingly, no doubt, Boot and Kagan are plagiarizing John Stuart Mill's classic essay on humanitarian intervention, in which he urged Britain to undertake the enterprise vigorously" specifically, to conquer more of India. Britain must pursue this high-minded mission, Mill explained, even though it will be "held up to obloquy" on the continent. Unmentioned was that by doing so, Britain was striking still further devastating blows at India and extending the nearmonopoly of opium production that it needed both to force open Chinese markets by violence and to sustain the imperial system more broadly by means of its immense narcotrafficking enterprises, Noam Chomsky
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all well known in England at the time. But such matters could not be the source of the "obloquy." Rather, Europeans are "exciting odium against us," Mill wrote, because they are unable to comprehend that England is truly "a novelty in the world," a remarkable nation that acts only "in the service of others." It is dedicated to peace, though if "the aggressions of barbarians force it to a successful war," it selflessly bears the cost while "the fruits it shares in fraternal equality with the whole human race," including the barbarians it conquers and destroys for their own benefit. England is not only peerless but near perfect, in Mill's view, with no "aggressive designs," desiring "no benefit to itself at the expense of others." Its policies are "blameless and laudable." England was the nineteenth-century counterpart of the "idealistic new world bent on ending inhumanity," motivated by pure altruism and uniquely dedicated to the highest "principles and values," though also sadly misunderstood by the cynical or perhaps paranoid Europeans.73 Mill's essay was written as Britain engaged in some of the worst crimes of its imperial reign. It is hard to think of a more distinguished and truly honorable intellectual" or a more disgraceful example of apologetics for terrible crimes. Such facts might inspire some reflection as Boot and Kagan illustrate Marx's dictum about tragedy replayed as farce. It is also worth recalling that the record of continental imperialism is even worse, and the rhetoric that accompanied it no less glorious, as when France gained Mill's approval by carrying out its civilizing mission in Algeria" while "exterminating the indigenous population," the French minister of war declared.74 Kagan's concept of "anti-Americanism," while conventional, also merits reflection. In such pronouncements, the term anti-American and its variants ("hating America," and the like) are regularly employed to defame critics of state policy who may admire and respect the country, its culture, and its achievements, indeed think it is the greatest place on earth. Nevertheless, they "hate America" and are "anti-American" on the tacit assumption that the society and its people are to be identified with state power. This usage is drawn directly from the lexicon of totalitarianism. In the former Russian empire, dissidents were guilty of "anti-Sovietism." Perhaps critics of Brazil's military dictatorship were labeled "anti-Brazilian." Among people with some commitment to freedom and democracy, such attitudes are inconceivable. It would only arouse ridicule in Rome or Milan if a critic of Berlusconi's policies were condemned as "anti-Italian," though perhaps it would have passed in Mussolini's day. It is useful to remember that no matter where we turn, there is rarely any shortage of elevated ideals to accompany the resort to violence. The words accompanying the "Wilsonian tradition" may be stirring in their nobility, but should also be examined in practice, not just rhetoric: for example, Wilson's call for conquest of the Philippines, already mentioned; or as president, his interventions in Haiti and the Dominican Republic that left both countries in ruins; or what Walter LaFeber calls the "Wilson corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine, which dictated "that only American oil interests receive concessions" within the reach of its power.75 The same is true of the worst tyrants. In 1990, Saddam Hussein warned Kuwait of possible retribution for actions that were undermining Iraq's battered economy after Iraq had protected Kuwait during the war with Iran. But he assured the world that he wanted not "permanent fighting, but permanent peace ... and a dignified life."76 In 1938, President Roosevelt's close confidant Sumner Welles praised the Munich agreement with the Nazis and felt that it might lead to a "new world order based upon justice and upon law." Shortly after, they carried the project forward by occupying parts of Czechoslovakia, while Hitler explained that they were "filled with earnest desire to serve the true interests of the peoples dwelling in this area, to safeguard the national individuality of the German and Czech peoples, and to further the peace and social welfare of all." Mussolini's concerns for the "liberated populations" of Ethiopia were no less exalted. The same was true of Japan's aims in Manchuria and North China and its sacrifices to create an "earthly paradise" for the suffering people and to defend their legitimate governments from Communist "bandits." What Noam Chomsky
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could be more moving than Japan's "exalted responsibility" to establish a "New Order" in 1938 to "insure the permanent stability of East Asia" based on "mutual aid" of Japan, Manchuria, and China "in political, economic, and cultural fields," their "joint defence against Communism," and their cultural, economic, and social progress?77 After the war, interventions were routinely declared to be "humanitarian" or in self-defense and therefore in accord with the UN Charter: for example, Russia's murderous invasion of Hungary in 1956, justified by Soviet lawyers on the grounds that it was undertaken at the invitation of the government of Hungary as a "defensive response to foreign funding of subversive activities and armed bands within Hungary for purposes of overthrowing the democratically elected government"; or, with comparable plausibility, the US attack against South Vietnam a few years later, undertaken in "collective self-defense" against "internal aggression" by the South Vietnamese and their "assault from the inside" (Adlai Stevenson and John F. Kennedy, respectively).78 We need not assume that these protestations are disingenuous, no matter how grotesque they may be. Often one finds the same rhetoric in internal documents, where there is no obvious reason to dissemble: for example, the argument by Stalin's diplomats that "to create real democracies, some outside pressure would be necessary... . We should not hesitate to use this kind of 'interference into the domestic affairs' of other nations ... since democratic government is one of the main guarantees of durable peace."79 Others agree, doubtless with no less sincerity, urging that we should not hesitate before police repression by the local government. This is not shameful since the Communists are essentially traitors. ... It is better to have a strong regime in power than a liberal government if it is indulgent and relaxed and penetrated by Communists. George Kennan, in this case, briefing US ambassadors in Latin America on the need to be guided by a pragmatic concern for "the protection of our raw materials"" ours, wherever they happen to be located, to which we must preserve our inherent "right of access," by conquest if necessary, in accord with the ancient law of nations.80 It requires a heavy dose of intentional ignorance and loyalty to power to delete from memory the human consequences of instituting and sustaining "strong regimes." The same talents are needed to sustain faith in the appeal to national security invoked to justify the use of force, a pretext that can rarely be upheld for any state, on inspection of the historical and documentary record. As these few examples illustrate, even the harshest and most shameful measures are regularly accompanied by profession of noble intent. An honest look would only generalize Thomas Jefferson's observation on the world situation of his day: We believe no more in Bonaparte's fighting merely for the liberties of the seas, than in Great Britain's fighting for the liberties of mankind. The object is the same, to draw to themselves the power, the wealth, and the resources of other nations.81 A century later, Woodrow Wilson's secretary of state, Robert Lansing (who also appears to have had few illusions about Wilson-ian idealism), commented scornfully on "how willing the British, French or Italians are to accept a mandate" from the League of Nations, as long as "there are mines, oil fields, rich grain fields or railroads" that will "make it a profitable undertaking." These "unselfish governments" declare that mandates must be accepted "for the good of mankind": "they will do their share by administering the rich regions of Mesopotamia, Syria, &c." The proper assessment of these pretensions is "so manifest that it is almost an insult to state it."82 Noam Chomsky
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And manifest indeed it is, when declarations of noble intent are proferred by others. For oneself, different standards apply. One may choose to have selective faith in the domestic political leadership, adopting the stance that Hans Morgenthau, one of the founders of modern international relations theory, condemned as "our conformist subservience to those in power," the regular stance of most intellectuals throughout history.83 But it is important to recognize that profession of noble intent is predictable, and therefore carries no information, even in the technical sense of the term. Those who are seriously interested in understanding the world will adopt the same standards whether they are evaluating their own political and intellectual elites or those of official enemies. One might fairly ask how much would survive this elementary exercise of rationality and honesty. It should be added that there are occasional departures from the common stance of subordination to power on the part of the educated classes. Some of the most important current illustrations are to be found in two countries whose harsh and repressive regimes have been sustained by US military aid: Turkey and Colombia. In Turkey, prominent writers, journalists, academics, publishers, and others not only protest atrocities and draconian laws but also carry out regular civil disobedience, facing and sometimes enduring severe and prolonged punishment. In Colombia, courageous priests, academics, human rights and union activists, and others face the constant threat of assassination in one of the world's most violent states.84 Their actions should elicit humility and shame among their Western counterparts, and would if the truth were not veiled by the intentional ignorance that makes a crucial contribution to ongoing crimes.
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Chapter 3 The New Era of Enlightenment
The final years of the millennium witnessed a display of exuberant self-adulation that may even have surpassed its none-too-glorious predecessors, with awed acclaim for the leaders of an "idealistic new world bent on ending inhumanity," dedicated to "principles and values" for the first time in history. An era of enlightenment and benevolence was upon us, in which the civilized nations, led by the United States, then "at the height of its glory," acted out of "altruism" and "moral fervor" in pursuit of exalted ideals.1 Such a shift would be a comforting development indeed. But to join the chorus of selfcongratulation, we would need to overlook some recalcitrant facts. The first and most striking is the record of terror and criminal atrocities carried out with the decisive support of the reigning superpower and its allies in very recent years, continuing without noticeable change, and suppressed as effectively as in the past within the prevailing intellectual culture, matters of great significance, which do not disappear from actual history merely because that is the preference of its caretakers. Taking a longer view, we would also be compelled to disregard the fact that over the last millennium, "war has been the dominant activity of European states." And we would have to put aside the basic reason for that unpleasant reality: "the central, tragic fact is simple: coercion works; those who apply substantial force to their fellows get compliance, and from that compliance draw the multiple advantages of money, goods, deference, [and] access to pleasures denied to less powerful people"2—a fact of life understood all too well by most of the people of the world, but a principle of statecraft that has been rescinded, so we are now told, not for the first time. One more immediate way to evaluate the prospects that were hailed with such enthusiasm is to consider the flow of US military aid. A good starting point is the year 1997, when the US foreign policy was lauded for entering a "noble phase" with a "saintly glow," setting the tone for the rhetorical flights that ensued. At the mundane level of fact, 1997 was of some significance for the human rights movement. In that single year the flow of US arms to Turkey exceeded the combined total of US military aid to Turkey for the entire Cold War period prior to the onset of its counterinsurgency campaign against its miserably repressed Kurdish population. By 1997 the campaign had driven millions of people from the devastated countryside, with tens of thousands killed and every imaginable form of barbaric torture, ranking high among the crimes of the grisly 1990s. As atrocities escalated, Turkey became the leading recipient of US arms worldwide, Israel and Egypt aside, with 80 percent of its supply coming from Washington. In the same year, US military aid to Colombia began to skyrocket, increasing from $50 million to $290 million two years later, and rapidly growing since. By 1999 Colombia had replaced Turkey as the world leader in US military aid. Further militarization of Colombia's internal conflicts, deeply rooted in the awful history of a rich society with extreme poverty and violence, had the predictable consequences for the tortured population and also led guerrilla forces to become yet another army terrorizing the peasantry and, more recently, the urban population as well. The most prominent Colombian human rights organization estimates the number of people forcefully displaced at 2.7 million, increasing by 1,000 a day. They estimate that more than 350,000 people were driven from their homes by violence in the first nine months of 2002, more than in all of 2001. Political killings Noam Chomsky
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were reported to have risen to twenty a day, double the level of 1998. In the case of the leading recipients of US military aid, the reaction is silence, and increased support for the atrocities. Consider, for comparison, the most demonic and dangerous member of the "axis of evil." The New York Times reports that "as many as a million people have been relocated inside Iraq," concluding accurately that "one element of the misery caused by President Saddam Hussein's rule" is the internally displaced population.3 The article was headlined "Uprooted Iraqis See War as Path to Lost Homes." There has been no inquiry into whether Kurds and Colombians, uprooted with extreme violence, apparently in even greater numbers, might also see war as a path to lost homes. The proposal would, in fact, be outlandish. Washington could alleviate the misery and perhaps clear the way to a more substantial solution to deeply rooted problems by simply withdrawing its support for atrocities. But that would require at the very least a willingness on the part of the educated classes to look into the mirror instead of restricting themselves to lamentations on the crimes of official enemies, about which there is often little that can be done. East Timor and Kosovo Just as Colombia was replacing Turkey as the leading recipient of US military aid, another tale of horror was unfolding that Washington could easily have brought to a quick end: East Timor. In 1999, Indonesia escalated the atrocities in the territory they had invaded in 1975, killing perhaps 200,000 people with the military and diplomatic support of the US and Britain, assisted by "intentional ignorance." In the early months of 1999, Indonesian forces and their paramilitary associates added several thousand more to the death toll,4 while the ruling generals announced that worse would come if the population voted the wrong way in an August 30 referendum on independence—as they did, with amazing courage. The Indonesian military made good on its promise, driving hundreds of thousands from their homes and destroying most of the country. For the first time, the atrocities were well publicized in the United States. On September 8, the Clinton administration reacted by reiterating its position that East Timor is "the responsibility of the Government of Indonesia, and we don't want to take that responsibility away from them." A few days later, under strong international and domestic pressure, Clinton reversed the 25-year policy of support for Indonesia's crimes in East Timor, and informed the Indonesian military that Washington would no longer directly support their crimes. They immediately withdrew from the territory, allowing an Australian-led UN peacekeeping force to enter unopposed.5 The lesson was crystal clear: as a handful of activists and critics had been saying for almost twentyfive years, there had never been any need for threats or forceful measures. It would have sufficed to withdraw from participation for some of the worst crimes of the late twentieth century to have come to a halt. But that was not the lesson that was drawn. Instead, the doctrinal system, rising to the challenge, drew the required conclusion: the events in East Timor demonstrated that foreign policy had entered into a "noble phase," as the leaders of the civilized West pursued their dedication to "principles and values." That recasting is an impressive achievement. One wonders whether it would be possible to contrive a hypothetical series of events that could not be adapted to prove the required thesis. East Timor was offered as a crucial example of the era of enlightenment with its new "norms of humanitarian intervention." There was no intervention, let alone humanitarian intervention.6 Those who were at the height of their glory were still persisting in their decades-old participation in Indonesia's crimes just at the moment when these accolades appeared. Noam Chomsky
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The prime illustration of the new era, however, was Kosovo, where the US and its allies acted out of "altruism" and "moral fervor" alone, forging "a new kind of approach to the use of power in world politics," as they "reacted to the deportation of more than a million Kosovars from their homeland" by bombing so as to save them "from horrors of suffering, or from death."7 This description, from a scholarly source, is the standard version. Accounts in the media, journals of opinion, and scholarship rarely depart from it. To select some typical examples, we read that after "violence surged" in Kosovo in 1998, Serb forces "responded with an ethnic-cleansing campaign and drove more than half the Albanian population into exile ... The growing bloodshed led the U.S. and its allies ... to launch a massive bombing campaign, ... allowing Albanian refugees to return."8 "In the spring of 1999 [Serbs] appeared to be conducting an ethnic cleansing campaign"; Albanian Kosovars "fled the assault, ... recounting stories of summary executions and forced expulsions" when they reached neighboring countries, and these expulsions and atrocities "elicited the NATO bombing campaign" on March 24.9 Hence the intervention in Kosovo was "purely for the benefit of the people of the region, ... an act of altruism," like all US interventions in the region.10 It was "absolutely right," Timothy Garton Ash concludes, because it passed the "very high ... threshold for such humanitarian intervention, ... something approaching genocide, by the killing or 'ethnic cleansing' of large numbers of its people" by the Serbian government.11 Surely this establishes the case and justifies the praise for the altruistic leaders opening a new era of enlightenment. And so it might, if the claims had any relation to the facts. The small sample of quotes presented above is typical in several interesting respects. First, the accounts are given without any evidence, though an enormous amount was available from impeccable Western sources. Second, the standard picture reverses the order of events. Uncontroversially, the bombing preceded the ethnic cleansing and atrocities, which were, in fact, its anticipated consequence. Kosovo was an ugly place before the NATO bombing, with an estimated 2,000 killed on all sides during the preceding year. However, the rich Western documentary record reveals no changes of significance until the March 24 bombing began, apart from a slight increase in Serbian atrocities two days earlier, when monitors were withdrawn in anticipation of the NATO attack. The UN began registering refugees a week later. These basic facts were well known by May 1999, when the Milosevic indictment was presented; it detailed a series of terrible crimes, which had, however, virtually without exception taken place after the bombing. On March 24, as the bombing began, British defense minister George Robertson (later NATO secretary-general) testified before the House of Commons that until mid-January 1999, "the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) was responsible for more deaths in Kosovo than the Serbian authorities had been." He was referring to the Albanian guerrillas, by then CIA-backed—who had explained frankly that their goal was to kill Serbs so as to elicit a harsh reaction that would lead to public support in the West for NATO intervention. A subsequent parliamentary inquiry revealed that Foreign Secretary Robin Cook had told the House on January 18 that the KLA had "committed more breaches of the ceasefire, and until this weekend was responsible for more deaths than the [Yugoslav] security forces."12 Robertson and Cook are specifically referring to a massacre carried out by the security forces at Racak on January 15, in which forty-five people were reported killed. But since Western documentation reveals no notable change in the distribution of violence after Racak, their conclusions, if valid in mid-January, essentially remained so in late March. It was clear at the time that such massacres were of no concern to the US or UK leadership. Thus, the Liquica massacre in East Timor shortly after was apparently far worse, was only one of many, and had no pretext of Noam Chomsky
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self-defense. Still, this and other massacres led to no change in US-UK support for the Indonesian invaders. Putting aside such selective concerns, however, the voluminous Western evidence does not reveal any significant shift in Kosovo before the bombing. Serious scholarship reaches similar conclusions. Nicholas Wheeler, who does not invert the chronology, estimates that Serbs had killed 500 Albanians before the NATO bombing, implying that 1,500 had been killed by the KLA. Nevertheless, he concludes that bombing Serbia was a genuine case of humanitarian intervention because "though only a few hundred Albanians were killed" prior to the bombing, "intelligence points to this as a precursor to a major campaign of killing and ethnic cleansing." Again, no credible sources are provided.13 This is one of the few serious attempts to provide any justification for the NATO bombing apart from the inverted chronology. On March 27, three days after the bombing of Serbia began, NATO commander Wesley Clark informed the press that the vicious Serbian reaction was "entirely predictable." He added that it had been "fully anticipated" and was "not in any way" a concern of the political leadership. In his memoirs, Clark reports that on March 6 he had informed Secretary of State Madeleine Albright that if NATO proceeded to bomb Serbia, "almost certainly" the Serbs would "attack the civilian population" and NATO would be able to do nothing to prevent that reaction on the ground. Reviewing Clark's book, Michael Ignatieff recognizes that according to the NATO commander, "the really decisive impulse" propelling the NATO bombing campaign "was not Milosevic's human rights violations in Kosovo before March 1999; nor was it his wholesale eviction after the bombing began. What mattered most was the need to impose NATO's will on a leader whose defiance, first in Bosnia and then in Kosovo, was undermining the credibility of American and European diplomacy and of NATO's willpower."14 That the primary concern was the "credibility" of the masters had already been made clear by Clinton and Blair. The point was reiterated in Defense Secretary William Cohen's subsequent report to Congress, once the usual chronological falsifications are disregarded, and it is confirmed by Clark's memoirs. Andrew Bacevich gives an even more cynical interpretation, dismissing all humanitarian motives. Clinton's resort to force in Bosnia in 1995 and his bombing of Serbia in 1999 were "not, as claimed, to put a stop to ethnic cleansing or in response to claims of conscience, but to preempt threats to the cohesion of NATO and the credibility of American power." The plight of the Kosovars," he alleges, was not a concern. The intent of the NATO bombing was "to provide an object lesson to any European state fancying that it was exempt from the rules of the post-Cold War era" established by Washington. What counted was "affirming the dominant position of the United States in a Europe that was unified, integrated, and open." From the outset, "the war's architects understood [that] its purpose had been to sustain American primacy" in Europe and "to forestall the intolerable prospect of Europe's backsliding," presumably out of US control.15 Four years later, Europe and the US had lost interest. Half of the Kosovars live in poverty. Radical Islamists have capitalized "on the ill feelings produced by the international community's negligent behavior," monopolizing the distribution of "food, clothing, and shelter," as well as the tools for the cultural survival of those in rural areas, giving rise to a "Taliban phenomenon." Postwar Western policies "may prove to be directly responsible for the production of Europe's own Taliban."16 Kosovo and East Timor are conventionally offered not only as the prime illustration of the new era of humanitarian intervention but also as a demonstration of how new norms are evolving "toward a redefined role for the United Nations." The norms that Western powers established in these two cases render the UN Charter obsolete. With these norms established, it becomes legitimate to invade Noam Chomsky
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a country without Security Council authorization. As approvingly noted by the dean of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton, "That is the lesson that the United Nations and all of us should draw" from the invasion of Iraq, firmly grounded in the new norms.17 The record suggests that we should draw rather different lessons: about how norms are established by the powerful to provide justification for their claimed "sovereign right to take military action" at will (Colin Powell); and how even very recent history can be reconstructed by well-functioning doctrinal systems. These are the crucial lessons, and those concerned with the future would be well advised to take them seriously. The Need for Colonization As the tragedies of East Timor and Kosovo unfolded in 1999, Turkey relinquished to Colombia its place as leading recipient of US arms. The reason is not hard to discern: Turkish state terror was by then a success, Colombia's was not. Throughout the 1990s and the new era of enlightenment, Colombia had by far the worst human rights record in the Western Hemisphere and was at the same time by far the hemisphere's leading recipient of US arms and military training, a correlation that is well-established and would be of no slight concern if it were known outside of scholarship and dissident circles. Atrocities in Colombia include displacement of the population through chemical warfare (called "fumigation") under the guise of a drug war that is hard to take seriously. One of the leading academic authorities notes that "a provocative case can be made that US drug policy contributes effectively to the control of an ethnically distinct and economically deprived underclass at home and serves US economic and security interests abroad."18 Many criminologists and observers of the international scene regard that as a considerable understatement. The analysis helps explain why the US-sponsored actions are carried out with ever greater enthusiasm and zeal even as they increasingly fail to achieve the alleged goal of dealing with domestic drug use, and why measures that are known to be far more effective, specifically prevention and treatment, are scarcely funded. The governors of Colombia's targeted southern provinces, along with peasants and human rights activists, have proposed plans relying on manual eradication of coca and poppies and support for alternative crops, but to little effect. Meanwhile the land is poisoned by fumigation, children die, and the uprooted and scattered victims suffer from sickness and injury. Peasant agriculture is based on a rich tradition of knowledge and experience gained over many centuries, commonly passed on from mother to daughter. Though a remarkable human achievement, it is very fragile and can be destroyed forever in a single generation. It is being destroyed, and along with it, some of the richest biodiversity in the world. Campesinos, indigenous people, and Afro-Colombians are now joining the millions in rotting slums and camps. And with the people gone, multinationals can strip the mountains for coal, extract oil and other resources, and probably convert what is left of the land to ranching by the rich or agroexport in an environment shorn of its treasures and variety. Informed analysts and observers describe Washington's fumigation programs as another stage in the historical process of driving poor peasants from the land for the benefit of foreign investors and Colombian elites. Like many other centers of turmoil and state terror, Colombia is part of an important oil-producing region, and a significant producer itself: much the same is true of Chechnya, Western China, the Central Asian dictatorships, and other places where state violence was intensified after 9-11 on the pretext of a "war on terror," and with the expectation that there would be a nod from Washington. Noam Chomsky
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Human rights organizations and the State Department agree that the overwhelming majority of atrocities in Colombia can be attributed to the military and paramilitaries, the "sixth division" of the five-division Colombian army, because of their close links, according to Human Rights Watch. The proportion of atrocities attributed to the paramilitaries has been increasing as crimes are privatized in accord with neoliberal practice, a familiar development elsewhere as well: Serbia used private militias in the former Yugoslavia, as did Indonesia in East Timor, and Turkey in the southeast, and many other places. There is a corresponding privatization of international atrocities. Fumigation is being taken over by "private" companies consisting of US military officers under contract to the Pentagon, also a pattern that is worldwide, and useful for evading accountability. Even if one were to give credence to the US arguments in favor of the drug war, the underlying assumptions are scandalous. Imagine the reaction to a proposal that Colombia or China should undertake fumigation programs in North Carolina to destroy government-subsidized crops used for more lethal products —which, furthermore, they not only must import at risk of trade sanctions, but for which they must allow advertising aimed at vulnerable populations. There is a new and highly regarded literary genre inquiring into the cultural defects that keep us from responding properly to the crimes of others. An interesting question no doubt, though by any reasonable standard it ranks well below a different one: Why do we persist in our own crimes, either directly or through crucial support for murderous clients? It is instructive to ask how often, or how accurately, one finds reference to Turkey, Colombia, East Timor, and many similar examples in the contemporary literature on the flaws in our character. There is much self-congratulation about the new "ruling ideology" in the moral universe of the enlightened states, grounded in the principle that "all states have a responsibility to protect their citizens; if their leaders are unable or unwilling to do so, they render their countries liable to military intervention— authorized by the Security Council or, failing that (as in the case of Kosovo), by individual countries in 'conscience-shocking situations.' "19 Atrocities comparable to or much worse than anything charged to Milosevic in Kosovo before the NATO bombing were not "conscience-shocking" when responsibility traced back home, as it often did—and even when the crimes took place within, not just near, the borders of NATO. In the case of Turkey, "conscience-shocking situations" went virtually unheeded in the United States until the moment in early 2003 when the Turkish government defied Washington's demands and followed the wishes of 95 percent of its population by refusing to allow an attack on Iraq from its borders. At that point, one began to read about "Turkey's ghastly record of torturing, killing, and 'disappearing' Turkish Kurds and destroying more than 3,000 of their villages," with citations from human rights organizations reiterating what they had reported in far more detail years before while the crimes were in progress, thanks to US aid, and could easily have been stopped. To this day, the decisive US role remains under wraps. As before, the most that can be said is that we "tolerated" the abuses suffered by the Kurds (Aryeh Neier).20 Massive contribution to major atrocities is not "toleration." The time to expose the suffering of the Kurds is while Washington is providing the means to carry out the crimes that are found shocking in retrospect, with responsibility safely displaced far away. Such performances, which are routine, would be deplored among official enemies. Their easy acceptance in the most powerful state in history again does not bode well for the future. Another currently fashionable formulation of the mission of the enlightened states holds that "the need ... for colonisation is as great as it ever was in the nineteenth century" to bring to the rest of the world the principles of order, freedom, and justice to which "postmodern" societies are dedicated; the version offered by Tony Blair's key foreign policy adviser, Robert Cooper.21 He did not Noam Chomsky
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elaborate on the "need for colonisation" in the nineteenth century and the consequences as that obligation was shouldered by Britain, France, Belgium, and other standard-bearers of Western civilization, but an honest look at the real world may well support his judgment that the need for colonization is as compelling now as it was in the days Cooper recalls with nostalgia. To rephrase, we can learn a good deal about today's enlightened states by paying a little attention to their record and how they portrayed it, both as events were unfolding and in historical retrospect. We should not, however, overlook the changes in world order that have occurred since World War II. One of these Robert Jervis calls a "change of spectacular proportions, perhaps the single most striking discontinuity that the history of international politics has anywhere provided": that the states of Europe now live in peace— and, some argue more controversially, democracies do not go to war with one another.22 It is this striking discontinuity to which Cooper alludes in joining those who hail the birth of a "postmodern world system" of law, justice, and civility, though the West must "revert to the rougher methods of an earlier era—force, preemptive attack, deception, whatever is necessary, when it comes to dealing with those who still live in the nineteenth-century world of every state for itself." The West must revert to "the laws of the jungle ... when we are operating in the jungle"—exactly as it has done in the disgraceful past. Protecting Naughty Children from Infection The enlightened states of the late nineteenth century were not the first to laud themselves for liberating barbarians from their sad fate—by violence, destruction, and plunder. They were drawing from a rich tradition of distinguished leaders who were troubled by the rising "flood of evil doctrines and pernicious examples" and asked "what would become of our religious and political institutions, of the moral force of our governments, and of that conservative system which has saved [us] from complete dissolution [if] the contagion and the invasion of vicious principles" is not deterred or overcome. In expressing these concerns, the Czar and Metternich were referring to "the pernicious doctrines of republicanism and popular self-rule [spread by] the apostles of sedition" in the New World—in the rhetoric of contemporary planners, a rotten apple that might spoil the barrel, a domino that might topple others. The contagion of these doctrines, they warned, "crosses the seas, and often appears with all the symptoms of destruction which characterize it, in places where not even any direct contact, any relation of proximity might give ground for apprehension." Worse yet, the apostles of sedition had just announced their intention to expand their dominion by proclaiming the Monroe Doctrine—"a species of arrogance, peculiarly American and inexcusable," as Bismarck later described it.23 Bismarck did not have to await the era of Wilsonian idealism to learn the meaning of the Monroe Doctrine, explained by Secretary of State Robert Lansing to President Wilson, who found his description "unanswerable," though advising that it would be "impolitic" to let it reach the public: In its advocacy of the Monroe Doctrine the United States considers its own interests. The integrity of other American nations is an incident, not an end. While this may seem based on selfishness alone, the author of the Doctrine had no higher or more generous motive in its declaration.24 The doctrine could not yet be implemented fully because of the balance of world power, though Wilson did secure US domination of the Caribbean region by force, leaving a terrible legacy that remains to this day, and was able to move somewhat beyond, driving the British enemy out of oilrich Venezuela and supporting the vicious and corrupt dictator Juan Vicente Gomez, who opened the country to US corporations. Open-door/free-trade policies were instituted in the usual way: by pressuring Venezuela to bar British concessions while continuing to demand—and secure—US oil Noam Chomsky
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rights in the Middle East, where the British and French were in the lead. By 1928 Venezuela had become the world's leading oil exporter, with US companies in charge. The story continues right to the front pages of 2003, with enormous poverty in a country of rich resources and potential, yielding great wealth to foreign investors and a small sector of the population. The reach of US power was still limited in Wilson's time, but as President William Howard Taft had presciently observed, "the day is not far distant [when] the whole hemisphere will be ours in fact as, by virtue of our superiority of race, it already is ours morally." Latin Americans may not understand, the Wilson administration added, but that is because "they are naughty children who are exercising all the privileges and rights of grown-ups" and require "a stiff hand, an authoritative hand." More gentle means should not be overlooked, however. It may be useful to "pat them a little bit and make them think that you are fond of them," Secretary of State John Foster Dulles advised President Eisenhower.25 There are naughty children everywhere. Wilson regarded Filipinos as "children [who] must obey as those who are in tutelage"— at least, those who survived the liberation he had called for while extolling his altruism. His State Department also regarded Italians as "like children [who] must be [led] and assisted more than almost any other nation." It was therefore right and proper for his successors to offer enthusiastic support for the "fine young revolution" of Mussolini's Fascism that crushed the threat of democracy among Italians who "hunger for strong leadership and enjoy ... being dramatically governed." The conception remained in place through the 1930s and was revived immediately after the war. As the US undertook to subvert Italian democracy in 1948 by withholding food from starving people, restoring the Fascist police, and threatening worse, the State Department's Italian desk officer explained that policies must be designed so that "even the dumbest wop would sense the drift." Haitians were "little more than primitive savages," according to Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who claimed to have rewritten the Haitian Constitution during Wilson's military occupation—so as to permit US corporations to take over Haiti's land and resources after its recalcitrant Parliament had been sent packing by the marines. When the Eisenhower administration was seeking to overthrow the newly established Castro government in Cuba in 1959, CIA chief Allen Dulles complained that "there was in Cuba no opposition to Castro who were capable of action," in part because "in these primitive countries where the sun shone, the demands of the people were far less than in the more advanced societies," so they were unaware of how much they were suffering.26 The need for discipline has been reiterated forcefully over the years. To mention another case of contemporary relevance, when Iran's conservative parliamentary government sought to gain control of its own resources, the US and Britain instigated a military coup to install an obedient regime that ruled with terror for twenty-five years. The coup sent a more far-reaching message, spelled out by the editors of the New York Times: "Underdeveloped countries with rich resources now have an object lesson in the heavy cost that must be paid by one of their number which goes berserk with fanatical nationalism ... Iran's experience [may] strengthen the hands of more reasonable and more far-seeing leaders [elsewhere], who will have a clear-eyed understanding of the principles of decent behavior."27 The same lesson had been taught nearer home, at the Chapulte-pec (Mexico) Conference in February 1945 that laid the basis for the postwar order now that the Monroe Doctrine could be enforced in the Wilsonian sense. Latin Americans were then under the influence of what the State Department called "the philosophy of the New Nationalism, [which] embraces policies designed to bring about a broader distribution of wealth and to raise the standard of living of the masses." Washington was concerned that "economic nationalism is the common denominator of the new aspirations for industrialization"—just as it had been for England, the United States, and in fact Noam Chomsky
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every other country that succeeded in industrializing. "Latin Americans are convinced that the first beneficiaries of the development of a country's resources should be the people of that country." That was unacceptable: the "first beneficiaries" must be US investors, while Latin America fulfills its service function. The US therefore imposed an "Economic Charter for the Americas" designed to eliminate economic nationalism "in all its forms."28 With an exception, however: economic nationalism remained a crucial feature of the US economy, which relied far more than in the past on a dynamic state sector, often operating under the cover of defense. It is useful to recall that even at the peak of the Cold War more perceptive observers understood that the primary threat posed by Communism was the economic transformation of the Communist countries "in ways that reduce their willingness and ability to complement the industrial economies of the West," another version of "the philosophy of the new nationalism," in this case dating from 1917.29 The same concerns account for the persistence into the postwar period of "the analytical framework American policymakers had developed and employed during the interwar years for relations with right-wing dictatorships" of European fascism, historian David Schmitz notes.30 The point has been to control the "threat of Communism," understood not as a military threat, but very much in the terms just described. The "analytical framework" of relations with the fascist states is eminently worth recalling, if only because it has reappeared with such consistency right to the present and therefore can teach us a good deal about the world that has been shaped in no small measure by the most powerful states and the private institutions that are their "tools and tyrants," to borrow the words of James Madison when he contemplated with much unease the fate of the democratic experiment of which he was the leading framer. The rise of fascism in the interwar period elicited concern, but was generally regarded rather favorably by the US and British governments, the business world, and a good deal of elite opinion. The reason was that the fascist version of extreme nationalism permitted extensive Western economic penetration and also destroyed the much-feared labor movements and the left, and the excessive democracy in which they could function. Support for Mussolini was effusive. Across a broad range of opinion, "that admirable Italian gentleman" (as President Roosevelt described him in 1933) enjoyed great respect until World War II broke out. Support extended to Hitler's Germany as well. It is, incidentally, well to bear in mind that the most monstrous regime in history came to power in the country that by reasonable measures represented the highest peak of Western civilization in the sciences and the arts, and had been considered a model of democracy before international conflict took forms that could not accommodate this conception;31 and—rather like Saddam Hussein half a century later—retained substantial Anglo-American support until Hitler launched direct aggression that infringed too seriously on US and UK interests. Support for fascism began at once. Praising the Fascist takeover in Italy, which quickly destroyed the parliamentary system and violently suppressed labor and political opposition, Ambassador Henry Fletcher articulated the assumptions that were to guide US policy there and elsewhere in years to come. Italy faced a stark choice, he wrote the secretary of state: either "Mussolini and Fascism" or 'Giolitti and Socialism"; Giolitti was a leading figure of Italian liberalism. A decade later, in 1937, the State Department continued to regard European fascism as a moderate force that "must succeed or the masses, this time reinforced by the disillusioned middle classes, will again turn to the Left." That same year, US Ambassador to Italy William Philips was "greatly impressed by the efforts of Mussolini to improve the conditions of the masses" and found "much evidence" in favor of the Fascists' view that "they represent a true democracy in as much as the welfare of the people is their principal objective." He considered Mussolini's accomplishments "astounding [and] a Noam Chomsky
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source of constant amazement," and enthusiastically praised his "great human qualities." The State Department vigorously concurred, also lauding Mussolini's "magnificent" achievements in Ethiopia, and hailing Fascism for having "brought order out of chaos, discipline out of license, and solvency out of bankruptcy." In 1939, FDR continued to regard Italian fascism as "of great importance to the world [though] still in the experimental stage." In 1938, FDR and his close confidant Sumner Welles approved of Hitler's Munich settlement, which dismembered Czechoslovakia. As noted earlier, Welles felt that it "presented the opportunity for the establishment by the nations of the world of a new world order based upon justice and upon law," in which the Nazi moderates would play a leading role. In April 1941, George Kennan wrote from his consular post in Berlin that German leaders have no wish to "see other people suffer under German rule," are "most anxious that their new subjects should be happy in their care," and are making "important compromises" to assure this benign outcome. The business world, too, was highly enthusiastic about European fascism. Investment boomed in Fascist Italy; "the wops are unwop-ping themselves," Fortune magazine declared in 1934. After the rise of Hitler, investment boomed in Germany for similar reasons: a stable climate had been established for business operations, with the threat of "the masses" contained. Until war broke out in 1939, Scott Newton writes, Britain was even more supportive of Hitler, for reasons deeply rooted in Anglo-German industrial, commercial, and financial relations, and "a policy of self-preservation for the British establishment" in the face of rising popular democratic pressures.32 Even after the US entered the war, attitudes remained ambivalent. By 1943, the US and Britain had begun their efforts, which intensified after the war, to dismantle the antifascist resistance worldwide and restore something like the traditional order, often rewarding some of the worst war criminals with prominent roles.33 Reviewing the record, Schmitz points out that "the ideological basis and fundamental assumptions of American policy remained remarkably consistent" through the rest of the century; the Cold War "demanded new approaches and tactics" but otherwise left interwar priorities unchanged.34 The "analytical framework" Schmitz illustrates in detail has persisted until the present, leaving immense suffering and devastation. Throughout, policy planners have faced the "agonizing problem" of how to reconcile a formal commitment to democracy and freedom with the overriding fact that "the United States may often need to do terrible things to get what it has always wanted," Alan Tonelson observes. What the US wanted was "economic policies that would enable American business to operate as freely as possible and often as monopolistically as possible," with the aim of creating "an integrated, United States-dominated capitalist world economy. "3S Still more ominous than the "philosophy of the new nationalism" was the threat that it could become a "virus" that might infect others, not by conquest but by example. That was understood from the earliest days. Secretary of State Lansing warned President Wilson that the Bolshevik disease might spread, "a very real danger in view of the process of social unrest throughout the world." Wilson was particularly concerned that "the American negro [soldiers] returning from abroad" might be infected by the example of the soldiers' and workers' councils that were being set up in Germany as the war ended, establishing a form of democracy that was as intolerable to the West as it was to Lenin and Trotsky. Similar fears were expressed by Lloyd George's government in Britain, which found "hostility to Capitalism" to be widespread among the working people of England, who were paying close attention to the popular councils that developed in Russia before the Bolshevik takeover destroyed them—counterrevolutionary violence that did not alleviate elite concerns in the West. Within the United States, social unrest was largely suppressed by Wilson's "Red Scare," though Noam Chomsky
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only temporarily. Business leaders remained alert to "the hazard facing industrialists [with] the newly realized political power of the masses" and the constant need for shaping public opinion "if we are to avoid disaster."36 Concern over Soviet economic development and its demonstration effect persisted into the 1960s, when the Soviet economy began to stagnate, in large measure because of the escalating arms race that Soviet Premier Khrushchev had sought desperately to prevent. The Cold War itself from its origins in 1917 was in significant respects a "North-South" conflict writ large. Russia had been Europe's original "third world," declining relative to the West up to World War I while serving the standard function of providing resources, markets, and investment opportunities. Russia was a special case because of its scale and military power, a factor of growing importance after it played the leading role in defeating Nazi Germany and achieved superpower status in the military dimension. But the primary threats remained as they have been throughout the non-Western World: independent nationalism and the virus effect. On these grounds it is possible to explain the "logical illogicality" noted by the War Department in 1945, when it prepared plans for the US to take control of most of the world and surround Russia with military force while denying the adversary any comparable rights. The illogicality they perceived dissolves as soon as we realize that the Soviet Union might have "flirted with the thought" of associating itself with "a rising tide all over the world wherein the common man aspires to higher and wider horizons."37 The plans were therefore logical and necessary, however illogical they may appear on the surface. Leading scholars basically agree. John Lewis Gaddis realistically traces the Russia-US conflict back to 1917, and explains that the immediate Western invasion was a justified act of self-defense. It was undertaken "in response to a profound and potentially far-reaching intervention by the new Soviet government in the internal affairs, not just of the West, but of virtually every country in the world," namely, "the Revolution's challenge ... to the very survival of the capitalist order."38 Change in the social order in Russia and the possibility that Russian development might infect others therefore justified the invasion of Russia. Attack is therefore defense, another "logical illogicality" that becomes coherent once the doctrinal apparatus is properly understood. On the same grounds, we can understand the persistence of basic policies of the US and other leading Western powers before, during, and after the Cold War, always in self-defense. Note that the defensive invasion of Russia in 1918 is another precursor for the doctrine of preventive war declared in September 2002 by radical nationalists pursuing their imperial vision. Let's return to the "striking discontinuity in international politics" at the end of World II (Robert Jervis). One element is that the US became a global actor for the first time, displacing its European rivals and using its incomparable wealth and power to organize the world system, with care and skill. What Jervis had in mind, however, is the "democratic peace." For centuries, Europeans had devoted themselves to slaughtering one another, meanwhile conquering most of the world. By 1945 they realized that the game was over: the next time it was played would be the last. Western powers can still resort to violence against the weak and defenseless, but not against one another. The Cold War superpower conflict, too, kept to that understanding, though not without extreme hazard. The standard interpretation is different: the "democratic peace" reflects "some happy combination of liberal norms and institutions such as representative democracy and market economies."39 Though these factors are real enough, their contribution to the striking discontinuity cannot be properly assessed without due attention to the realization that Western civilization was on the verge of self-annihilation, thanks to the rational pursuit of its traditional practices. Now Europe is Noam Chomsky
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internally at peace, just as North America has been since the native population was virtually annihilated, half of Mexico conquered, the US-Canada border established, and the phrase "United States" transformed from plural to singular 150 years ago. On a global scale, however, the practices, institutions, and dominant culture remain largely unchanged. The portents cannot be lightly dismissed.
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Chapter 4 Dangerous Times
Concern about current threats is widespread and realistic. In February 2002 the famous "doomsday clock" of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was advanced two minutes toward midnight, even before the release of the Bush administration's National Security Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review, which elicited shudders worldwide. With different threats in mind, strategic analyst Michael Krepon regarded the final days of 2002 as "the most dangerous time since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis." A high-level task force concluded that "we are entering a time of especially grave danger [as we] are preparing to attack a ruthless adversary [Iraq] who may well have access to [weapons of mass destruction]." Such dangers are likely to become even more grave in the longer term as a consequence of the easy resort to violence, as many have pointed out.1 The reasons behind these concerns merit close attention, but too narrow a focus can be misleading. We can gain a more realistic perspective on them by asking why the Cuban missile crisis was such a "dangerous time." The answers bear directly on the perils ahead. One Word Away from Nuclear War The missile crisis "was the most dangerous moment in human history," Arthur Schlesinger commented in October 2002 at a conference in Havana on the fortieth anniversary of the crisis, attended by a number of those who witnessed it from within as it unfolded. Decision-makers at the time undoubtedly understood that the fate of the world was in their hands. Nevertheless, attendees at the conference may have been shocked by some of the revelations. They were informed that in October 1962 the world was "one word away" from nuclear war. "A guy named Arkhipov saved the world," said Thomas Blanton of the National Security Archive in Washington, which helped organize the event. He was referring to Vasili Arkhipov, a Soviet submarine officer who blocked an order to fire nuclear-armed torpedoes on October 27, at the tensest moment of the crisis, when the submarines were under attack by US destroyers. A devastating response would have been a near certainty, leading to a major war.2 Participants in the decisions at the time, and at the retrospective forty years later, did not have to be reminded of President Eisenhower's warning that "a major war would destroy the Northern Hemisphere."3 "The parallel between Kennedy's handling of the crisis and President Bush's deliberations over Iraq was a recurrent theme at the meeting," the press reported, "with many participants accusing Bush of ignoring history," saying "they had come to make sure it does not happen again, and to offer lessons for today's crises, most notably President George W. Bush's deliberations about whether to strike Iraq."4 Schlesinger was surely not the only one to bring up the fact that "Kennedy chose quarantine as an alternative to military action [while] Bush is committed to military action"; nor, presumably, was he the only one to have been taken aback to learn just how close the world came to destruction even under the less aggressive choice. In his authoritative account of the missile crisis, Raymond Gart-hoff observes that "in the United States, there was almost universal approbation for President Kennedy's handling of the crisis." That's a fair assessment, though whether the approval is warranted is a separate question. The confrontation finally came down to two basic issues: (1) Would Kennedy pledge that the US would not invade Cuba? And (2) would he make a public announcement that the US would Noam Chomsky
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withdraw its Jupiter nuclear missiles from Turkey, on the border of Russia and aimed at its heartland? On both issues, Kennedy ultimately refused. He agreed only to a secret commitment to withdraw the missiles, which had in any case already been scheduled to be replaced by Polaris nuclear submarines. He refused to make any formal commitment not to invade Cuba. Rather, he continued "to conduct an active policy of seeking to undermine and displace the Castro regime, including covert operations against Cuba," Garthoff observes. In a highly provocative gesture as the crisis intensified, the missiles were turned over to Turkish command "with ceremonial fanfare" on October 22. Garthoff comments: the event was "certainly noted in Moscow, but not in Washington."5 There it was presumably regarded as just another exercise of "logical illogicality." As history is crafted by the powerful, the most dramatic moment of the missile crisis was provided by UN Ambassador Adlai Stevenson at the Security Council on October 25, when he exposed Soviet deception by unveiling a photograph of a missile site in Cuba taken by US spy planes. The concept "Stevenson moment" has entered into historical memory, in celebration of this victory over a vicious foe aiming to destroy us. As an intellectual exercise, let's imagine how the "Stevenson moment" might be viewed by a hypothetical extraterrestrial observer. Call him Martian, and assume that he is free from earthly systems of doctrine and ideology. Martian would surely note that there is no "Khrushchev moment" in history: no moment at which Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev or his UN ambassador dramatically unveiled photographs of the Jupiter missiles placed in Turkey in 1961-62, or of the provocative transfer of the missiles to the Turkish military with "ceremonial fanfare" just as the most dangerous moment in human history approached. Reflecting on this distinction, Martian should recall that the Jupiter missiles were only a small element of a far greater threat to Russia, and that Russia had repeatedly been invaded and almost destroyed in the preceding half-century—twice by newly rearmed Germany, its richer Western part now within a hostile military alliance led by the world's mightiest superpower; once in 1918 by Britain, the US, and their allies. And he might observe that there was, of course, no Russian threat to invade Turkey, nor any large-scale Russian terrorist campaign or economic warfare against Turkey, nor even a lesser counterpart to the crimes that the Kennedy administration was carrying out against Cuba at the time. Despite all this, only the "Stevenson moment" exists in historical memory. Martian would surely grasp how the distinction reflects the balance of global power. He would also presumably recall a principle that must be close to a historical universal of intellectual culture: We are "good" (whoever we happen to be), and they are "evil" if they stand in our way. Therefore, the radical asymmetry makes perfect sense, within the framework of established doctrine. The contours of the asymmetry become even sharper when we consider the occasional effort at extenuation: the crime of the Russians in Cuba was stealth, while the US surrounded Russia with lethal offensive weapons quite openly. That is true. The world ruler not only has no need to conceal its intent, but prefers to advertise it, to "maintain credibility." The subordination of the ideological system to power ensures that virtually any action—international terrorism (as in Cuba), overt aggression (as in South Vietnam at the same time), participation in mass slaughter to destroy the only mass-based political party (as in South Vietnam and Indonesia), and many others—will either be dispatched to oblivion or reshaped into an act of legitimate self-defense or an act of benevolence that perhaps went astray.6 The importance of owning a properly crafted "history" was revealed once again in February 2003, when Colin Powell addressed the UN Security Council, informing its members that the US would< go to war with or without UN authorization. The question pondered by commentators was whether Noam Chomsky
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Powell would be able to provide a Stevenson moment. Some thought he had. New York Times columnist William Safire triumphantly reported Powell's "Adlai Stevenson moment": a satellite image of trucks next to a bunker allegedly storing chemical weapons, then another with the trucks gone7—clear proof that Iraq had deceived the inspectors by removing the illegal weapons before they arrived, and that the devious Iraqis had penetrated the inspection team, confirming the US thesis that the team was unreliable and hence could not be provided with intelligence data that Washington claimed to have. It was later conceded, with Powell's silent nod of agreement, that for a range of reasons—the time lapse between the taking of the photos, the uncertain use of the site in question—the photographs proved nothing, one of a series of similar cases, which later became a torrent. Still, this was deemed a "Stevenson moment," though Adam Clymer pointed out that there was a "stark difference" between the two: Stevenson's moment was "one of real fear about Soviet missiles, of imminent nuclear confrontation." Apparently, there could have been no fear, anywhere, about missiles on the Russian border. Stevenson's son felt that the differences were even starker. His father had presented the Security Council with proof that "a nuclear superpower was installing missiles in Cuba and threatening to upset the world's 'balance of terror' "—or, from Martian's standpoint, threatening to shift the world's balance of terror to be a little less extreme in Washington's favor. And, he continued, "That 'moment' had an obvious purpose: containing the Soviet Union and maintaining peace."8 In Martian translation, the Stevenson moment did contribute to a partial containment, but of Washington, not the USSR. A possible invasion of Cuba was averted, though Washington's international terrorist campaign and economic warfare were resumed at once, and the threat to Russia was escalated—all of which takes on greater significance against the background of superpower interchanges at the time, to which we return. Kennedy had no doubts about the threat of the Russian missiles in Cuba. Meeting with his highlevel advisers (ExComm), he said, "It's just as if we suddenly began to put a major number of [medium-range ballistic missiles] in Turkey... . Now that'd be goddam dangerous." His national security adviser, McGeorge Bundy, responded: "Well, we did, Mr. President." Surprised, JFK said, "But that was five years ago"—actually, one year ago, during his administration. He later expressed concern that if the facts were known, his decision to risk war rather than agree publicly to joint withdrawal of missiles from Cuba and Turkey would not play well in Peoria: he feared most people would consider it "a very fair trade."9 Whatever one's judgment about the actions of Khrushchev and Kennedy, there should be universal agreement that Khrushchev's decision to dispatch the missiles to Cuba was an act of criminal lunacy, in the light of the possible consequences. It would pass beyond lunacy to condemn those who warned of the dangers and criticized Khrushchev bitterly for proceeding despite the risks. It is the merest truism that choices are assessed in terms of the range of likely consequences. We understand the truism very well when considering the actions of official enemies but find it hard to apply to ourselves. There are many illustrations, including recent US military exercises. Aid agencies, scholars, and others who properly warned of the risks in Afghanistan and Iraq were ridiculed when the worst, fortunately, did not come to pass. At the same level of moral imbecility, one would rush into the streets every October to sing praises to the Kremlin, while ridiculing those who warned of the dangers of placing missiles in Cuba and persist in condemning the criminal lunacy of the act. Kennedy officials state that the president had not authorized an invasion of Cuba. Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, however, informed his cabinet associates on October 22, 1962, that "the President ordered us to prepare an invasion months ago... . And we have developed plans in Noam Chomsky
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great detail," fully enough so that an invasion could be launched in a week.10 At the fortieth anniversary conference, McNamara reiterated his view that "Cuba was justified in fearing an attack. 'If I were in Cuban or Soviet shoes, I would have thought so, too,' he said." What took place, and the background for it, most definitely does "offer lessons for today's crises," as participants in the October 2002 retrospective insisted. While this may well have been "the most dangerous moment in human history," it is not the only such case of flirting with catastrophe. More generally, it is far from the only illustration of unanticipated and unpredictable consequences of the resort to, or even the threat of, force, among the many reasons why sane people understand it to be a last resort, facing a very heavy burden of proof. Other lessons bear directly on conflicted US relations with Europe, another topical matter at the anniversary meeting. The missile crisis suggests some reasons why Europeans might be wary of the US political leadership—in that case, not radical right nationalists but those at the liberal, multilateral end of the political spectrum. Europe's fate was hanging in the balance as the president and his advisers decided to reject what they feared would be regarded as a "fair trade" if it were known. But Europe was kept in the dark and treated with disdain. Kennedy's ExComm "summarily dismissed any idea of sharing with the allies decisions that could have led to the nuclear destruction of Western Europe as well as North America," Frank Costigliola writes in a rare study of the topic. Kennedy told his secretary of state privately that allies "must come along or stay behind... . We cannot accept a veto from any other power," words heard again forty years later from Bush and Powell. The US commander of NATO put its air forces on alert without consultation with Europe. Kennedy's closest ally, British prime minister Harold Macmillan, told his associates that Kennedy's actions were "escalating into war" but he could do nothing "to stop •t"; he knew only what he could learn from British intelligence. Washington's perception of the US-UK "special relationship" was articulated by a senior Kennedy adviser in internal discussion at the peak of the crisis: Britain will "act as our lieutenant (the fashionable word is partner)." McGeorge Bundy suggested that some effort be made to encourage Europeans to "feel that they're a part of it ... reel that they know," but only in order to keep them quiet. Europeans are not capable of the "rational and logical" approach of American decision-makers, his aide Robert Komer advised. If European leaders found out what was happening, Bundy added, they might make "noise ... saying that they can live with Soviet [medium-range ballistic missiles], why can't we." The word noise connotes "discordant, unintelligent clamor," Costigliola adds.11 Perhaps many Europeans might not be too happy about the significance accorded their survival, even if respected US commentators are confident that their reluctance to "come along" is a sign of "paranoid anti-Americanism," "ignorance and avarice," and other "cultural deficiencies." International terrorism dominated the headlines as the retrospective conference took place; so did Washington's allegedly novel doctrine of regime change. But there is little novel here: The Cuban missile crisis grew directly out of a campaign of international terrorism aimed at forceful regime change. Historian Thomas Paterson concludes, quite plausibly, that "the origins of the October 1962 crisis derived largely from the concerted U.S. campaign to quash the Cuban revolution" by violence and economic warfare.12 We can gain a better insight into current implications by looking at how the crisis evolved, and the guiding principles that motivated policy.
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International Terrorism and Regime Change: Cuba The Batista dictatorship was overthrown in January 1959 by Castro's guerrilla forces. In March, the National Security Council (NSC) considered means to institute regime change. In May, the CIA began to arm guerrillas inside Cuba. "During the Winter of 1959-1960, there was a significant increase in CIA-supervised bombing and incendiary raids piloted by exiled Cubans" based in the US.13 We need not tarry on what the US or its clients would do under such circumstances. Cuba, however, did not respond with violent actions within the United States for revenge or deterrence. Rather, it followed the procedure required by international law. In July 1960, Cuba called on the UN for help, providing the Security Council with records of some twenty bombings, including names of pilots, plane registration numbers, unexploded bombs, and other specific details, alleging considerable damage and casualties and calling for resolution of the conflict through diplomatic channels. US Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge responded by giving his "assurance [that] the United States has no aggressive purpose against Cuba." Four months before, in March 1960, his government had made a formal decision in secret to overthrow the Castro government, and preparations for the Bay of Pigs invasion were well advanced.14 Washington was concerned that Cubans might try to defend themselves. CIA chief Allen Dulles therefore urged Britain not to provide arms to Cuba. His "main reason," the British ambassador reported to London, "was that this might lead the Cubans to ask for Soviet or Soviet bloc arms," a move that "would have a tremendous effect," Dulles pointed out, allowing Washington to portray Cuba as a security threat to the hemisphere, following the script that had worked so well in Guatemala.15 Dulles was referring to Washington's successful demolition of Guatemala's first democratic experiment, a ten-year interlude of hope and progress, greatly feared in Washington because of the enormous popular support reported by US intelligence and the "demonstration effect" of social and economic measures to benefit the large majority. The Soviet threat was routinely invoked, abetted by Guatemala's appeal to the Soviet bloc for arms after the US had threatened attack and cut off other sources of supply. The result was a half-century of horror, even worse than the US-backed tyranny that came before. For Cuba, the schemes devised by the doves were similar to those of CIA director Dulles. Warning President Kennedy about the "inevitable political and diplomatic fall-out" from the planned invasion of Cuba by a proxy army, Arthur Schlesinger suggested efforts to trap Castro in some action that could be used as a pretext for invasion: "One can conceive a black operation in, say, Haiti which might in time lure Castro into sending a few boatloads of men on to a Haitian beach in what could be portrayed as an effort to overthrow the Haitian regime, ... then the moral issue would be clouded, and the anti-US campaign would be hobbled from the start."16 Reference is to the regime of the murderous dictator "Papa Doc" Duvalier, which was backed by the US (with some reservations), so that an effort to help Haitians overthrow it would be a crime. Eisenhower's March 1960 plan called for the overthrow of Castro in favor of a regime "more devoted to the true interests of the Cuban people and more acceptable to the U.S.," including support for "military operation on the island" and "development of an adequate paramilitary force outside of Cuba." Intelligence reported that popular support for Castro was high, but the US would determine the "true interests of the Cuban people." The regime change was to be carried out "in such a manner as to avoid any appearance of U.S. intervention," because of the anticipated reaction in Latin America and the problems of doctrinal management at home. The Bay of Pigs invasion came a year later, in April 1961, after Kennedy had taken office. It was authorized in an atmosphere of "hysteria" over Cuba in the White House, Robert McNamara later testified before the Senate's Church Committee. At the first cabinet meeting after the failed Noam Chomsky
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invasion, the atmosphere was "almost savage," Chester Bowles noted privately: "there was an almost frantic reaction for an action program." At an NSC meeting two days later, Bowles found the atmosphere "almost as emotional" and was struck by "the great lack of moral integrity" that prevailed. The mood was reflected in Kennedy's public pronouncements: "The complacent, the selfindulgent, the soft societies are about to be swept away with the debris of history. Only the strong ... can possibly survive," he told the country, sounding a theme that would be used to good effect by the Reaganites during their own terrorist wars.17 Kennedy was aware that allies "think that we're slightly demented" on the subject of Cuba, a perception that persists to the present.18 Kennedy implemented a crushing embargo that could scarcely be endured by a small country that had become a "virtual colony" of the US in the sixty years following its "liberation" from Spain.19 He also ordered an intensification of the terrorist campaign: "He asked his brother, AttorneyGeneral Robert Kennedy, to lead the top-level interagency group that oversaw Operation Mongoose, a program of paramilitary operations, economic warfare, and sabotage he launched in late 1961 to visit the 'terrors of the earth' on Fidel Castro and, more prosaically, to topple him."20 The terrorist campaign was "no laughing matter," Jorge Do-minguez writes in a review of recently declassified materials on operations under Kennedy, materials that are "heavily sanitized" and "only the tip of the iceberg," Piero Gleijeses adds.21 Operation Mongoose was "the centerpiece of American policy toward Cuba from late 1961 until the onset of the 1962 missile crisis," Mark White reports, the program on which the Kennedy brothers "came to pin their hopes." Robert Kennedy informed the CIA that the Cuban problem carries "the top priority in the United States Government—all else is secondary—no time, no effort, or manpower is to be spared" in the effort to overthrow the Castro regime. The chief of Mongoose operations, Edward Lansdale, provided a timetable leading to "open revolt and overthrow of the Communist regime" in October 1962. The "final definition" of the program recognized that "final success will require decisive U.S. military intervention," after terrorism and subversion had laid the basis. The implication is that US military intervention would take place in October 1962—when the missile crisis erupted.22 In February 1962, the Joint Chiefs of Staff approved a plan more extreme than Schlesinger's: to use "covert means ... to lure or provoke Castro, or an uncontrollable subordinate, into an overt hostile reaction against the United States; a reaction which would in turn create the justification for the US to not only retaliate but destroy Castro with speed, force and determination."23 In March, at the request of the DOD Cuba Project, the Joint Chiefs of Staff submitted a memorandum to Defense Secretary Robert McNamara outlining pretexts which they would consider would provide justification for US military intervention in Cuba." The plan would be undertaken if "a credible internal revolt is impossible of attainment during the next 9-10 months," but before Cuba could establish relations with Russia that might "directly involve the Soviet Union." A prudent resort to terror should avoid risk to the perpetrator. The March plan was to construct "seemingly unrelated events to camouflage the ultimate objective and create the necessary impression of Cuban rashness and responsibility on a large scale, directed at other countries as well as the United States," placing the US "in the apparent position of suffering defensible grievances [and developing] an international image of Cuban threat to peace in the Western Hemisphere." Proposed measures included blowing up a US ship in Guantanamo Bay to create "a 'Remember the Maine' incident," publishing casualty lists in US newspapers to "cause a helpful wave of national indignation," portraying Cuban investigations as "fairly compelling evidence that the ship was taken under attack," developing a "Communist Cuban terror campaign [in Florida] and even in Washington," using Soviet bloc incendiaries for cane-burning raids in neighboring countries, Noam Chomsky
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shooting down a drone aircraft with a pretense that it was a charter flight carrying college students on a holiday, and other similarly ingenious schemes—not implemented, but another sign of the "frantic" and "savage" atmosphere that prevailed.24 On August 23 the president issued National Security Memorandum No. 181, "a directive to engineer an internal revolt that would be followed by U.S. military intervention," involving "significant U.S. military plans, maneuvers, and movement of forces and equipment" that were surely known to Cuba and Russia.25 Also in August, terrorist attacks were intensified, including speedboat strafing attacks on a Cuban seaside hotel "where Soviet military technicians were known to congregate, killing a score of Russians and Cubans"; attacks on British and Cuban cargo ships; the contamination of sugar shipments; and other atrocities and sabotage, mostly carried out by Cuban exile organizations permitted to operate freely in Florida.26 A few weeks later came "the most dangerous moment in human history." Terrorist operations continued through the tensest moments of the missile crisis. They were formally canceled on October 30, several days after the Kennedy and Khrushchev agreement, but went on nonetheless. On November 8, "a Cuban covert action sabotage team dispatched from the United States successfully blew up a Cuban industrial facility," killing 400 workers, according to the Cuban government. Raymond Garthoff writes that "the Soviets could only see [the attack] as an effort to backpedal on what was, for them, the key question remaining: American assurances not to attack Cuba." These and other actions reveal again, he concludes, "that the risk and danger to both sides could have been extreme, and catastrophe not excluded."27 After the crisis ended, Kennedy renewed the terrorist campaign. Ten days before his assassination he approved a CIA plan for "destruction operations" by US proxy forces "against a large oil refinery and storage facilities, a large electric plant, sugar refineries, railroad bridges, harbor facilities, and underwater demolition of docks and ships." A plot to kill Castro was initiated on the day of the Kennedy assassination. The campaign was called off in 1965, but "one of Nixon's first acts in office in 1969 was to direct the CIA to intensify covert operations against Cuba."28 Of particular interest are the perceptions of the planners. In his review of recently released documents on Kennedy-era terror, Do-minguez observes that "only once in these nearly thousand pages of documentation did a U.S. official raise something that resembled a faint moral objection to U.S.-government sponsored terrorism": a member of the NSC staff suggested that it might lead to some Russian reaction, and raids that are "haphazard and kill innocents ... might mean a bad press in some friendly countries." The same attitudes prevail throughout the internal discussions, as when Robert Kennedy warned that a full-scale invasion of Cuba would "kill an awful lot of people, and we're going to take an awful lot of heat on it."29 Terrorist activities continued under Nixon, peaking in the mid-1970s, with attacks on fishing boats, embassies, and Cuban offices overseas, and the bombing of a Cubana airliner, killing all seventythree passengers. These and subsequent terrorist operations were carried out from US territory, though by then they were regarded as criminal acts by the FBI. So matters proceeded, while Castro was condemned by editors for maintaining an "armed camp, despite the security from attack promised by Washington in 1962."30 The promise should have sufficed, despite what followed; not to speak of the promises that preceded, by then well documented, along with information about how well they could be trusted: e.g., the "Lodge moment" of July 1960. On the thirtieth anniversary of the missile crisis, Cuba protested a machinegun attack against a Spanish-Cuban tourist hotel; responsibility was claimed by a group in Miami. Bombings in Cuba in 1997, which killed an Italian tourist, were traced back to Miami. The perpetrators were Salvadoran criminals operating under the direction of Luis Posada Carriles and Noam Chomsky
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financed in Miami. One of the most notorious international terrorists, Posada had escaped from a Venezuelan prison, where he had been held for the Cubana airliner bombing, with the aid of Jorge Mas Canosa, a Miami businessman who was the head of the tax-exempt Cuban-American National Foundation (CANF). Posada went from Venezuela to El Salvador, where he was put to work at the Ilopango military air base to help organize US terrorist attacks against Nicaragua under Oliver North's direction. Posada has described in detail his terrorist activities and the funding for them from exiles and CANF in Miami, but felt secure that he would not be investigated by the FBI. He was a Bay of Pigs veteran, and his subsequent operations in the 1960s were directed by the CIA. When he later joined Venezuelan intelligence with CIA help, he was able to arrange for Orlando Bosch, an associate from his CIA days who had been convicted in the US for a bomb attack on a Cuba-bound freighter, to join him in Venezuela to organize further attacks against Cuba. An ex-CIA official familiar with the Cubana bombing identifies Posada and Bosch as the only suspects in the bombing, which Bosch defended as "a legitimate act of war." Generally considered the "mastermind" of the airline bombing, Bosch was responsible for thirty other acts of terrorism, according to the FBI. He was granted a presidential pardon in 1989 by the incoming Bush I administration after intense lobbying by Jeb Bush and South Florida Cuban-American leaders, overruling the Justice Department, which had found the conclusion "inescapable that it would be prejudicial to the public interest for the United States to provide a safe haven for Bosch [because] the security of this nation is affected by its ability to urge credibly other nations to refuse aid and shelter to terrorists."31 Cuban offers to cooperate in intelligence-sharing to prevent terrorist attacks have been rejected by Washington, though some did lead to US actions. "Senior members of the FBI visited Cuba in 1998 to meet their Cuban counterparts, who gave [the FBI] dossiers about what they suggested was a Miami-based terrorist network: information which had been compiled in part by Cubans who had infiltrated exile groups." Three months later the FBI arrested Cubans who had infiltrated the USbased terrorist groups. Five were sentenced to long terms in prison.32 The national security pretext lost whatever shreds of credibility it might have had after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, though it was not until 1998 that US intelligence officially informed the country that Cuba no longer posed a threat to US national security. The Clinton administration, however, insisted that the military threat posed by Cuba be reduced to "negligible," but not completely removed. Even with this qualification, the intelligence assessment eliminated a danger that had been identified by the Mexican ambassador in 1961, when he rejected JFK's attempt to organize collective action against Cuba on the grounds that "if we publicly declare that Cuba is a threat to our security, forty million Mexicans will die laughing."33 In fairness, however, it should be recognized that missiles in Cuba did pose a threat. In private discussions the Kennedy brothers expressed their fears that the presence of Russian missiles in Cuba might deter a US invasion of Venezuela. So "the Bay of Pigs was really right," JFK concluded.34 The Bush I administration reacted to the elimination of the security Pretext by making the embargo much harsher, under pressure from Clinton, who outflanked Bush from the right during the 1992 election campaign. Economic warfare was made still more stringent in 1996, causing a furor even among the closest US allies. The embargo came under considerable domestic criticism as well, on the grounds that it harms US exporters and investors—the embargo's only victims, according to the standard picture in the US; Cubans are unaffected. Investigations by US specialists tell a different story. Thus, a detailed study by the American Association for World Health concluded that the embargo had severe health effects, and only Cuba's remarkable health care system had prevented a Noam Chomsky
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"humanitarian catastrophe"; this has received virtually no mention in the US.35 The embargo has effectively barred even food and medicine. In 1999 the Clinton administration eased such sanctions for all countries on the official list of "terrorist states," apart from Cuba, singled out for unique punishment. Nevertheless, Cuba is not entirely alone in this regard. After a hurricane devastated West Indian islands in August 1980, President Carter refused to allow any aid unless Grenada was excluded, as punishment for some unspecified initiatives of the reformist Maurice Bishop government. When the stricken countries refused to agree to Grenada's exclusion, having failed to perceive the threat to survival posed by the nutmeg capital of the world, Carter withheld all aid. Similarly, when Nicaragua was struck by a hurricane in October 1988, bringing starvation and causing severe ecological damage, the current incumbents in Washington recognized that their terrorist war could benefit from the disaster, and therefore refused aid, even to the Atlantic Coast area with close links to the US and deep resentment against the Sandinistas. They followed suit when a tidal wave wiped out Nicaraguan fishing villages, leaving hundreds dead and missing in September 1992. In this case, there was a show of aid, but hidden in the small print was the fact that apart from an impressive donation of $25,000, the aid was deducted from assistance already scheduled. Congress was assured, however, that the pittance of aid would not affect the administration's suspension of over $100 million of aid because the US-backed Nicaraguan government had failed to demonstrate a sufficient degree of subservience.36 US economic warfare against Cuba has been strongly condemned in virtually every relevant international forum, even declared illegal by the Judicial Commission of the normally compliant Organization of American States. The European Union called on the World Trade Organization to condemn the embargo. The response of the Clinton administration was that "Europe is challenging 'three decades of American Cuba policy that goes back to the Kennedy Administration,' and is aimed entirely at forcing a change of government in Havana."37 The administration also declared that the WTO has no competence to rule on US national security or to compel the US to change its laws. Washington then withdrew from the proceedings, rendering the matter moot. Successful Defiance The reasons for the international terrorist attacks against Cuba and the illegal economic embargo are spelled out in the internal record. And no one should be surprised to discover that they fit a familiar pattern—that of Guatemala a few years earlier, for example. From the timing alone, it is clear that concern over a Russian threat could not have been a major factor. The plans for forceful regime change were drawn up and implemented before there was any significant Russian connection, and punishment was intensified after the Russians disappeared from the scene. True, a Russian threat did develop, but that was more a consequence than a cause of US terrorism and economic warfare. In July 1961 the CIA warned that "the extensive influence of 'Castroism' is not a function of Cuban power... . Castro's shadow looms large because social and economic conditions throughout Latin America invite opposition to ruling authority and encourage agitation for radical change," for which Castro's Cuba provided a model. Earlier, Arthur Schlesinger had transmitted to the incoming President Kennedy his Latin American Mission report, which warned of the susceptibility of Latin Americans to "the Castro idea °f taking matters into one's own hands." The report did identify a Kremlin connection: the Soviet Union "hovers in the wings, flourishing large development loans and presenting itself as the model for achieving modernization in a single generation." The dangers of the "Castro idea" are particularly grave, Schlesinger later elaborated, when "the distribution of land and other forms of national wealth greatly favors the propertied classes" and "the poor and Noam Chomsky
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underprivileged, stimulated by the example of the Cuban revolution, are now demanding opportunities for a decent living." Kennedy feared that Russian aid might make Cuba a "showcase" for development, giving the Soviets the upper hand throughout Latin America. In early 1964, the State Department Policy Planning Council expanded on these concerns: "The primary danger we face in Castro is ... in the impact the very existence of his regime has upon the leftist movement in many Latin American countries... . The simple fact is that Castro represents a successful defiance of the US, a negation of our whole hemispheric policy of almost a century and a half."38 To put it simply, Thomas Paterson writes, "Cuba, as symbol and reality, challenged U.S. hegemony in Latin America."39 International terrorism and economic warfare to bring about regime change are justified not by what Cuba does, but by its "very existence," its "successful defiance" of the proper master of the hemisphere. Defiance may justify even more violent actions, as in Serbia, as quietly conceded after the fact; or Iraq, as also recognized when pretexts had collapsed. Outrage over defiance goes far back in American history. Two hundred years ago, Thomas Jefferson bitterly condemned France for its "attitude of defiance" in holding New Orleans, which he coveted. Jefferson warned that France's "character [is] placed in a point of eternal friction with our character, which though loving peace and the pursuit of wealth, is high-minded." France's "defiance [requires us to] marry ourselves to the British fleet and nation," Jefferson advised, reversing his earlier attitudes, which reflected France's crucial contribution to the liberation of the colonies from British rule.40 Thanks to Haiti's liberation struggle, unaided and almost universally opposed, France's defiance soon ended, but the guiding principles remain in force, determining friend and foe. Guiding Principles The principles illustrated in the missile crisis explain why international law is irrelevant. Domestic law was also declared irrelevant. Rejecting a 1961 legal brief that held the Bay of Pigs invasion to be a violation of US neutrality laws, Attorney General Robert Kennedy determined that the US-run forces were "patriots." Therefore none of their activities "appear to be violations of our neutrality laws," which "clearly ... were not designed for the kind of situation which exists in the world today."41 The world did not suddenly become extraordinarily dangerous on 9-11, requiring "new paradigms" that dismantle international law and institutions and grant the White House the power to disregard the domestic rule of law. The achievements of international terrorism are excluded from sanitized history, but they are recognized with pride by the perpetrators. The famous School of the Americas, which trains Latin American officers to carry out their missions, proudly announces as one of its "talking points" that the US Army helped to "defeat liberation theology,"42 the heresy to which the Latin American Church succumbed when it adopted "the preferential option for the poor" and was made to suffer its own "terrors of the earth" for this departure from good order. Symbolically, the grim decade of Reagan-Bush I terror was opened, shortly before they took office, by the assassination of a conservative Salvadoran archbishop who had become a "voice for the voiceless," with thinly veiled complicity of the US-backed security forces; and the decade closed with the murder of six Jesuit Salvadoran intellectuals whose brains were blown out, and their housekeeper and her daughter murdered, by an elite Washington-armed and -trained battalion that had already compiled a record of bloody atrocities.
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The significance of these events in Western culture is illustrated by the fact that the work of these troublesome priests is unread and their names unknown, in sharp contrast to their counterparts under Kremlin rule. They were thus doubly assassinated: murdered and forgotten. In fact, the corpses received another kick in the face. Immediately after the murders, Vaclav Havel visited Washington to speak at a joint session of Congress, where he received a standing ovation for praising the "defenders of freedom"—who, he and his audience surely knew, had armed and trained the assassins of the six leading Latin American intellectuals, while leaving a bloody trail of the usual victims. His praise for our glorious selves after these achievements won rapturous acclaim from leading liberal commentators, who saw in it more signs that we are entering "a romantic age" (Anthony Lewis), and were awed by his "voice of conscience" that "speaks compellingly of the responsibilities that large and small powers owe each other" {Washington Post editors). But not the responsibility that the US owes to the people of Central America, at least those who survived the murderous onslaught of the 1980s.43 In the case of Cuba, "successful defiance" elicited reactions that brought the world close to destruction. But that is unusual. Successful defiance has regularly been overcome by one or another form of violence without any risk to the perpetrators. One strategy from the early 1960s was the installation of neo-Nazi National Security States, which had as their goal "to destroy permanently a perceived threat to the existing structure of socioeconomic privilege by eliminating the political participation of the numerical majority," that is, the "popular classes."44 The move set off a plague of repression and terror throughout the continent, reaching Central America during the Reaganite phase of the current political leadership. The plague began with the military coup in Brazil set in motion before Kennedy's assassination and carried out shortly after. Washington cooperated with the military forces that overthrew parliamentary democracy in recognition of their "basically democratic and pro-United States orientation," Kennedy's ambassador Lincoln Gordon explained. While the torturers and assassins were carrying out their work, Gordon hailed "the most decisive victory for freedom in the mid-twentieth century." The "democratic rebellion," Gordon cabled Washington, would help in "restraining left-wing excesses" of the former moderate populist elected government, and the "democratic forces" now in charge should "create a greatly improved climate for private investment."45 Gordon's view was endorsed by other leading figures of the Kennedy-Johnson administrations, though by the 1980s, as in Chile at the same time, the Brazilian generals were happy to transfer the wreckage to civilian hands. Despite the enormous advantages of the "colossus of the South," the generals had left Brazil in "the same category as the less developed African or Asian countries when it came to social welfare indices" (malnutrition, infant mortality, etc.), with conditions of inequality and suffering rarely matched elsewhere, but a grand success for foreign investors and domestic privilege.46 These patterns have not been restricted to the domains of the Monroe Doctrine. To take one of many examples from other parts of the world, while Washington was facilitating the "democratic rebellion" in Brazil and seeking to overcome Cuba's efforts to "take matters into its own hands," elder statesman Ellsworth Bunker was sent to Indonesia to investigate troubling conditions there. He informed Washington that "the avowed Indonesian objective is 'to stand on their own feet' in developing their economy, free from foreign, especially Western, influence." A National Intelligence Estimate in September 1965 warned that if the efforts of the mass-based PKI "to energize and unite the Indonesian nation ... succeeded, Indonesia would provide a powerful example for the underdeveloped world and hence a credit to communism and a setback for Western prestige." That threat was overcome a few weeks later by a mass slaughter in Indonesia and then the installation of the Suharto dictatorship. From the 1950s, fear of independence and excessive Noam Chomsky
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democracy—permitting a popular party of the poor to participate in the electoral arena—had been driving factors in Washington's exercises of subversion and violence, much as in Latin America.47 Cuba's crimes became still more immense in 1975 as it extended its reach to Africa, serving as the instrument of Russia's crusade to dominate the world, Washington proclaimed. "If Soviet neocolonialism succeeds" in Angola, UN Ambassador Daniel Patrick Moynihan thundered, "the world will not be the same in the aftermath. Europe's oil routes will be under Soviet control as will the strategic South Atlantic, with the next target on the Kremlin's list being Brazil." The theme is again familiar, with changes in the cast of characters. Washington's fury was roused by another Cuban act of successful defiance. When a US-backed South African invasion came close to conquering newly independent Angola, Cuba sent troops on its own initiative, scarcely even notifying Russia, and beat back the invaders. The South African press warned of "the blows to South African pride" and the "boost to African nationalism which has seen South Africa forced to retreat" by black Cuban soldiers. South Africa's major black newspaper wrote that "Black Africa is riding the crest of a wave generated by the Cuban success in Angola" and "tasting the heady wine of the possibility of realizing the dream of 'total liberation.' "48 The defense of Angola was one of Cuba's most significant contributions to the liberation of Africa. How remarkable these contributions were was unknown before Gleijeses's groundbreaking work appeared, telling "the story of a small country's vision of defying a big power's oppression, and, thanks to extraordinary individual heroism and self-sacrifice, changing a continent."49 Gleijeses observes that "Kissinger did his best to smash the one movement that represented any hope for the future of Angola," the MPLA. And though the MPLA "bears a grave responsibility for its country's plight" in later years, it was "the relentless hostility of the United States [that] forced it into an unhealthy dependence on the Soviet bloc and encouraged South Africa to launch devastating military raids in the 1980s."50 The many campaigns of international terrorism and economic warfare to overcome "successful defiance" and "left-wing excesses" adopting "the philosophy of the new nationalism" and perhaps even influenced by liberation theology, barely sampled here, are considered insignificant, or perhaps obviously legitimate, as are their bitter consequences. Accordingly, they scarcely enter the enormous current literature and public discussion of international terrorism and Washington's supposedly new doctrine of "regime change." At worst they can be dismissed with comforting euphemisms. An occasional casual reference tells us that nothing happened in Cuba beyond "the destabilization campaign known as Operation Mongoose." And fortunately, "with the collapse of the Soviet Union, leftist terrorism has all but dried up. North Korea and Cuba are no longer as busy promoting disorder as they once were."51 Cuba is listed prominently in scholarly work on terrorism, but typically as a suspect in the crime, not a victim.52 Reagan-Bush international terrorism in Nicaragua and elsewhere does not exist, or is at worst traceable to inattention or some other understandable departure from the mission assigned by Providence to the leaders of "the idealistic new world bent on ending inhumanity." And the persistence of standard operating procedures after the Cold War also did not occur or doesn't matter. The overriding principle prevails: misdeeds are performed by others; we are culpable only for inadvertent error or oversight. It is of the utmost significance for the future that in a world-dominant power even the worst crimes are easily effaced. The wars in Indochina are a remarkable example. After years of brutal destruction, much of the US population had come to oppose the wars on principled grounds. Among educated elites, however, objections were typically on narrow grounds of cost and failure. We may concede that there were some flaws in our generally praiseworthy effort, notably My Lai. "When Americans look back with sadness and even shame at the Vietnam war it is horrors like the My Lai Noam Chomsky
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massacre they have in mind," Jean Bethke Elshtain writes, the only Vietnam example mentioned in her furious denunciation of the crimes of others. My Lai is convenient because the massacre can be blamed on half-educated GIs trying to survive awful conditions in the field, unlike, say, Operation Wheeler Wallawa, to which My Lai was a minor footnote, one of the many post-Tet mass-murder operations planned by respectable people just like us, so that we need feel no "shame," even "sadness," over these huge crimes.53 Cuba was added to the official list of terrorist states in 1982, replacing Iraq, which was removed so as to make Saddam Hussein eligible for US aid. International Terrorism and Regime Change: Nicaragua It is instructive to look at another international terrorist campaign to overcome "successful defiance": the terrorist war against Nicaragua. The case is particularly illuminating because of the scale of the terrorist campaigns aimed at regime change, the role of the current Washington leadership in executing them, and the way they were cast when in progress and reshaped in retrospect within the intellectual culture. The case has further significance because it is so uncontroversial, in the light of the judgments of the highest international authorities; uncontroversial, that is, among those who have a minimal commitment to human rights and international law. There is a simple way to estimate the size of that category: determine how often these elementary matters are discussed, even mentioned, in respectable circles in the West, most dramatically after the "war on terror" was redeclared on 9-11. From that exercise alone one can draw some conclusions about the future, not very optimistic ones. The attack against Nicaragua was one of the highest priorities of the war on terror launched as the Reagan administration came into office in 1981, targeting primarily "state-sponsored terrorism." Nicaragua was an unusually dangerous agent of the plague because it was so close to home: "a cancer, right here in our land mass," openly renewing the goals of Hitler's Mein Kampf, Secretary of State George Shultz declared to Congress.54 Nicaragua was armed by the Soviet Union, which had implanted there "a privileged sanctuary for terrorists and subversives just two days' driving time from Harlingen, Texas," the president warned — "a dagger pointed at the heart of Texas," to paraphrase an illustrious predecessor. This second Cuba would become "a launching pad for revolution up and down, first of all, Latin America," then who knows where? "Nicaraguan communists have threatened to carry their revolution into the United States itself." Soon we may see "Soviet military bases on America's doorstep," a "strategic disaster." Despite the immense odds he faced, the president bravely told reporters: "I refuse to give up. I remember a man named Winston Churchill who said, 'Never give in. Never, never, never.' So we won't."55 Reagan declared a national emergency because "the policies and the actions of the government of Nicaragua constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States." Explaining the bombing of Libya in 1986, Reagan announced that the mad dog Qaddafi was sending arms and advisers to Nicaragua "to bring his war home to the United States," part of his campaign "to expel America from the world." Particularly ominous was Nicaragua's "revolution without borders," regularly brandished though it had immediately been exposed as a fraud. The source was a speech by Sandinista leader Tomas Borge explaining that Nicaragua hoped to develop successfully and provide a model for others, who would have to follow their own paths. The speech was transmuted by Reaganite Public Diplomacy into a design for world conquest, and faithfully relayed by the media.56
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Even more interesting than the antics of a political leadership seeking to set new records for absurdity and deceit are the actual contents of the document subjected to State Department manipulation. Borge's words probably did strike terror in the hearts of Reagan's planners. They understood very well that the real threat is successful development that might "infect others," renewing the danger of Guatemala's crushed experiment with democracy and social reform, Cuba's "successful defiance," and many other examples, back to the days when the American revolution terrified the Czar and Metternich. The threat had to be recast in terms of aggression and terror for the purposes of Public Diplomacy. Pursuing that vocation, Secretary of State Shultz warned that "terrorism is a war against ordinary citizens." As he spoke, US planes were bombing Libya, killing dozens of ordinary citizens. The bombing was the first terrorist attack in history scheduled for prime-time TV, exactly when all major networks opened their evening news, no small technical feat given the logistical difficulties. Shultz warned particularly of the Nicaraguan cancer, announcing that we must "cut it out." And not by gentle means: "Negotiations are a euphemism for capitulation if the shadow of power is not cast across the bargaining table," Shultz orated, condemning those who advocate "utopian, legalistic means like outside mediation, the United Nations, and the World Court, while ignoring the power element of the equation."57 Washington forcefully blocked such Utopian means, beginning with the efforts of Central American presidents to bring a negotiated peace to the region in the early 1980s. Washington proceeded to "cut the cancer out" by violence and, not surprisingly considering the array of forces, with great success. The leading academic historian of Nicaragua, Thomas Walker, points out that after a few years, Washington's terrorist war had reversed the considerable economic growth and social progress that followed the overthrow of the US-backed Somoza dictatorship, driving the highly vulnerable economy to disaster so that the country achieved "the unenviable status of being the poorest country in the Western hemisphere" by the time the administration had achieved its goals. One component of the triumph, Walker continues, was a death toll that would be comparable to 2.25 million dead in the US, relative to population. Reagan State Department official and historian Thomas Carothers observes that for Nicaragua, the toll "in per capita terms was significantly higher than the number of U.S. persons killed in the U.S. Civil War and all the wars of the twentieth century combined."56 Destruction of Nicaragua was a task of no slight importance. The country's progress during the early 1980s was lauded by the World Bank and other international agencies as "remarkable" and as "laying a solid foundation for long-term socio-economic development" (Inter-American Development Bank). In the health sector, the country enjoyed "one of the most dramatic improvements in child survival in the developing world" (UNICEF, 1986). The real cancer feared by the Reaganites was thus serious: Nicaragua's "remarkable" transformation could have metastasized to a "revolution without borders" in the sense of the speech that was reshaped for propaganda purposes. It was therefore only logical, from Washington's point of view, to eradicate the "virus" before it could "infect others," who must in turn be "inoculated" by terror and repression. Like Cuba, Nicaragua did not respond to the terrorist attack with bombings in the US, efforts to assassinate the political leadership, and other such measures, which, we are solemnly informed, meet the highest standards when conducted by our leaders. Rather, it approached the World Court for relief. Its legal team was led by the distinguished Harvard University law professor Abram Chayes. Expecting that the US would abide by a court decision, the team prepared a very narrow case, restricted to terrorist acts that required scarcely any argument, because they were conceded: mining of Nicaraguan harbors, in particular.60 Noam Chomsky
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In 1986, the court found in Nicaragua's favor, dismissing US government claims and condemning Washington for "unlawful use of force"—international terrorism, in lay terms. The court ruling went beyond Nicaragua's narrow charge. Reiterating more forcefully earlier decisions, the court ruled any form of intervention "prohibited" if it interferes with the sovereign right of "choice of a political, economic, social and cultural system, and the formulation of policy": intervention is "wrongful when it uses methods of coercion in regard to such choices." The judgment applies to many other cases. The court also defined "humanitarian aid" explicitly, ruling all US aid to the contras strictly military, hence illegal. US economic warfare was also ruled in violation of valid treaties, therefore unlawful.61 The decision had little detectable effect. The World Court was condemned as a "hostile forum" by the editors of the New York Times, and therefore irrelevant, like the UN. Legal authorities noted for their defense of world order dismissed the ruling on grounds that America "needs the freedom to defend freedom" (Thomas Franck), as it was doing in devastating Nicaragua and much of the rest of Central America. Others condemned the court because of its "close ties to the Soviet Union" (Robert Leiken, Washington Post), a claim not worthy of refutation. Subsequent aid to the contras was uniformly described as "humanitarian" in violation of the explicit court ruling. Congress immediately approved an additional $100 million to escalate what the court had condemned as the "unlawful use of force." Washington continued to undermine "Utopian, legalistic means" until it finally achieved its ends by violence. The World Court further ordered the US to pay indemnities, and Nicaragua sought to estimate the costs, under international supervision. Estimates were in the $17 billion to $18 billion range. The call for reparations was of course dismissed as ridiculous, though just to make sure, after the US regained control, the Nicaraguan government was heavily pressured to abandon the claims for reparations mandated by the court. Interestingly, the figure of $17 billion is the amount that Iraq has paid to people and companies in compensation for its invasion of Kuwait. The numbers killed in the Iraqi conquest of Kuwait appear to be on the order of the US invasion of Panama a few months earlier (hundreds or thousands, according to various estimates)—a fraction of the deaths in Nicaragua and perhaps 5 percent of those killed in the US-backed Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. There is, of course, no thought of compensation in such cases. Another relevant comparison in terms of compensation is Vietnam. Here attitudes vary as usual from doves to hawks. At the dovish extreme, President Carter assured Americans that we owe Vietnam no debt and have no responsibility to render it any assistance because "the destruction was mutual." Others thought we should not be so soft-hearted. Taking a moderate view, neither hawk nor dove, President Bush I announced that "it was a bitter conflict, but Hanoi knows today that we seek only answers without the threat of retribution for the past." The crimes the Vietnamese committed against us can never be forgotten, but "we can begin writing the last chapter of the Vietnam war" if they dedicate themselves with sufficient zeal to the MIAs, the sole moral issue that remains after an invasion that left millions dead and three countries in utter ruins, with unknown numbers still dying from unexploded ordinance and the massive chemical warfare attack against the South; the North was spared this particular horror. The adjacent frontpage story in the New York Times reports Japan's failure, once again, to "unambiguously" accept the blame "for its wartime aggression."62 Given that the invaders were the victims, the Vietnamese are responsible for reparations. Vietnam was therefore compelled to pay to the US the huge debt incurred by the Saigon government that the US had installed as its local agent for its wars in Indochina, which targeted primarily South Noam Chomsky
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Vietnam. Clinton, however, magnanimously advocated a plan to allow Vietnam to use some portion of its debt to the US for educational purposes.63 Clinton's plan was modeled on a 1908 program that returned to China a portion of the indemnity it was forced to pay for rebelling against its foreign masters (the Boxer Rebellion). There are earlier precedents. Haiti's liberation from French rule in 1804 shocked civilized opinion, which feared that the virus of liberation might spread from "the first free nation of free men."64 For obvious reasons, the danger was particularly acute in the US, which took the lead in isolating the criminal state, relenting only in 1862 when destinations were being sought for freed slaves (Liberia was recognized in the same year). In punishment for the crime of liberation, Haiti was compelled to pay France a huge indemnity in 1825, which guaranteed French domination and had a catastrophic effect on the society that France had devastated in the war of liberation in its richest colony.6s Half a century before France's punishment of Haiti for its successful defiance, George Washington set forth in 1779 on the conquest of the advanced Iroquois civilization. His goal was to "extirpate them from the Country," he wrote to Lafayette on the Fourth of July, and to expand American boundaries westward toward the Mississippi; conquest of Canada was barred by British force. The "Town destroyer," as Washington was known to the indigenous population, completed his mission successfully. The Iroquois were then informed that they would have to provide compensation for their treacherous resistance to their liberators. Another Clinton, then governor of New York, informed the defeated tribes that "considering our Losses, the Debts we have incurred, and our former Friendship, it is reasonable that You make to Us a Cession of your Lands as will aid Us in repairing and discharging the same." Having little choice, the Iroquois ceded their territory, only to discover that New York State proceeded at once to violate its solemn treaties and the prohibitions of the Articles of Confederation and to take most of the rest through threats, deception, and guile. A young American soldier later wrote home that "I really feel guilty as I applied the torch to huts that were Homes of Content until we rav-agers came spreading desolation everywhere," but perhaps in a good cause: "Our mission here is ostensibly to destroy but may it not transpire that we pillagers are carelessly sowing the seeds of Empire?"66 Following the US rejection of the World Court orders, Nicaragua— still eschewing violent retaliation or threat of terror—took its case to the Security Council, which endorsed the court's judgment and called on all states to observe international law. The US vetoed the resolution. Nicaragua then approached the General Assembly, which passed a similar resolution with only the US, Israel, and El Salvador opposed; and another the following year with only the US and Israel opposed. Little of this was even reported, and the matter has disappeared from history. Washington's reaction to the orders of the World Court and the Security Council was to escalate the terrorist war, while also issuing official orders to its forces to go "after soft targets" and to avoid the Nicaraguan army.67 State Department spokesperson Charles Redman confirmed and justified the new and more extreme terrorist programs, issuing a statement that "would do credit to George Orwell's Ministry of Truth," Americas Watch responded, adding that Redman's conception of "legitimate target" would justify terrorist attacks on Israeli collectives—or on US civilian targets, for that matter. New Republic editor Michael Kinsley criticized human rights organizations for becoming too emotional about State Department justifications for terrorist attacks on "soft targets." We should instead adopt a "sensible policy [that meets] the test of cost-benefit analysis," he advised, an analysis of "the amount of blood and misery that will be poured in, and the likelihood that democracy will emerge at the other end"—"democracy" as US elites understand the term, an interpretation illustrated quite clearly in the region. It is taken for granted that they have the right to Noam Chomsky
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conduct the analysis and pursue the project if it passes their tests.68 And it did pass their tests. In 1990, with a " 'gun to their heads' [as] was clear to many impartial observers" (Walker), Nicaraguans succumbed and voted to turn the country over to the US-backed candidate. US elites celebrated the triumph, entranced by the new "romantic age." Commentators across the spectrum of respectable opinion enthusiastically lauded the success of the methods adopted to "wreck the economy and prosecute a long and deadly proxy war until the exhausted natives overthrow the unwanted government themselves," with a cost to us that is "minimal," leaving the victims "with wrecked bridges, sabotaged power stations, and ruined farms," and thus providing the US candidate with "a winning issue": ending the "impoverishment of the people of Nicaragua" (Time). We are "United in Joy" at this outcome, proud of this "Victory for U.S. Fair Play," headlines in the New York Times proclaimed. The official policy of attacking soft targets relied on US control of the skies over Nicaragua and the sophisticated communications equipment provided to the terrorist forces attacking from US bases in Honduras. The Reagan administration tried the technique that was praised by CIA director Allen Dulles in Guatemala and recommended for Cuba: pressuring allies to refuse requests for military aid, so that Nicaragua would turn to the Russians for help and could then be portrayed as a tentacle of the Kremlin-sponsored conspiracy poised to destroy us. The Nicaraguan government did not rise to the bait, however. Reaganite propaganda therefore fabricated lurid tales about Soviet MiGs threatening the US from Nicaraguan bases. That is not surprising; one expects systems of vast power to be committed to lying and deceit. But the reactions are more revealing. Hawks called for the bombing of Nicaragua in punishment for this j new crime. Doves tended to be more cautious, questioning the reli-ability of the claims but adding that if they were accurate, then we would have to bomb Nicaragua, because the planes would be "capable against the United States" (Senator Paul Tsongas). US security would be at risk if the Nicaraguan air force obtained some vintage 1950s MiGs to defend its airspace. In contrast, there was no threat to Nicaragua's security when US client forces attack undefended civilian targets under the guidance of US planes that controlled the country's skies. Another example of "logical illogicality." That Nicaragua might have the right to protect its airspace from ongoing US terrorist attack is next to inconceivable. The thought was virtually never voiced—which is reasonable, too, given the principle that US actions are defensive by definition so that any reaction to them is aggression, much like the "internal aggression" of the South Vietnamese in South Vietnam, "assaulting" the American defenders "from the inside," in the rhetoric of Kennedy liberals. With Washington-style democracy and proper economic practice restored, the country sank more deeply into political and socioeco-nomic ruin while attention lapsed in the US. A decade after the US had regained control, half the economically active population had left the country, "often the boldest, most capable, most determined," either legally or as illegal migrant workers. Their remittances, estimated at some $800 million annually, "are what keep the damper down on uncontrollable social upheaval," the research journal of the Jesuit University reported. It also estimated that "Nicaragua's gross domestic product would have to grow 5 percent annually for the next fifty years to reattain the productive levels of 1978, before our historic underdevelopment was intensified to the extreme by the US-financed war to destroy the revolution," by the wreckage left by subsequent "globalization," and by the "massive corruption" of the post-1990 US-backed governments. That issue of the journal appeared just as the US suffered its first international terrorist atrocity on home soil.69 Another striking illustration of prevailing attitudes toward terrorism is the warning of Bush administration officials two months later that Nicaragua would be punished if its November 2002 Noam Chomsky
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election were to be won by the political forces that had dared to resist US attack, the FSLN, and thus "do not share the values of the world community." Washington "cannot forget that Nicaragua ended up a refuge for violent political extremists" in the 1980s. There is some truth to that; Managua did serve as a refuge for social democratic political leaders, poets and writers, prominent religious figures, human rights activists, and others fleeing the death squads and official security forces of the terrorist states installed and backed by Washington, rather as Paris became a refuge from fascism and Stalinism in the 1930s. We are "reminded of [the refuge] daily by the continuing presence of some members of the FSLN leadership ... who perpetrated these abominations," the State Department warned Nicaraguan voters. "Given their past record, why should we believe their statements that they have changed? ... We are confident that the Nicaraguan people will reflect on the nature and history of the candidates and choose wisely."70 Nicaraguans hardly needed the warnings. Their history sufficed to tell them that, should they misbehave by electing the wrong government, as they did in 1984 in an election that the US refused to recognize because it could not control the outcome (and has therefore been excised from history),71 then Nicaragua will again be considered a state that supports terrorism, with the penalties that ensue, which are not trivial. Citing Washington's cynical warnings, the editors of Envio observed that "it is a safe bet that those who took up arms at a time when [US] state terrorism was killing, torturing, forcing disappearances and closing all political spaces will now be reclassified as terrorists." The "unimaginable and singular tragedy of September 11 surely felt like the end of the world ... in the targeted country," the editors observed. But "Nicaragua experiences the end of the world nearly every day [after] the destruction the US government has repeatedly wreaked on this country and its people." The atrocities of 9-11 may be denounced as "Armageddon," but Nicaraguans recall that their country "lived its own Armageddon in excruciating slow motion [under US assault] and is now submerged in its dismal aftermath," having been reduced to the second poorest country in the hemisphere (after Haiti), vying with Guatemala for the distinction, also enjoying perhaps the world record for concentration of wealth.72 Among the victors, all of this has been effaced in the classic fashion. Nicaragua and El Salvador are remembered as "relative success stories—and precisely the kind of success stories we lack in the Middle East," to be remedied by the new crusade for "democratization."73 One would be hard put to find a phrase within mainstream commentary suggesting that the record of international terrorism of current Bush administration officials might have some bearing on the "war on terror" they redeclared on 9-11. Among the leading figures of the redeclared war is John Negroponte, who ran the Embassy in Honduras that was the main base for the terrorist attacks on Nicaragua. He was duly chosen to oversee the diplomatic component of the current phase of the war on terror at the United Nations. Its military component is run by Donald Rumsfeld, who was Reagan's special envoy to the Middle East during the period of the worst terror there and was also delegated to establish firmer relations with Saddam Hussein. The Central American "war on terror" was supervised by Elliott Abrams. After pleading guilty to misdemeanor counts in the Iran-contra affair, Abrams received a Christmas Eve pardon from President Bush I in 1992, and was appointed by Bush II "to lead the National Security Council's office for Near East and North African affairs, ... the senior director job [that] oversees Arab-Israeli relations and U.S. efforts to promote peace in the troubled region,"74 a phrase drawn from Orwell, in light of the record. Abrams is joined by Otto Reich, who was charged with running an illegal covert domestic propaganda campaign against Nicaragua, appointed temporary assistant secretary for Latin American affairs under Bush II, then designated special envoy for Western Hemisphere affairs. To replace Reich as assistant secretary, the administration nominated Roger Noriega, who "served in the State Department during the Reagan administration, helping forge fiercely anti-Communist policies toward Latin America"; in translation, terrorist Noam Chomsky
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atrocities.75 Secretary of State Powell, now cast as administration moderate, served as national security adviser during the final stage of the terror, atrocities, and undermining of diplomacy in the 1980s in Central America, and the support for the apartheid regime in South Africa. His predecessor, John Poindexter, was in charge of the Iran-contra crimes and was convicted in 1990 of five felony counts (overturned mostly on technicalities). Bush II placed him in charge of directing the Pentagon's Total Information Awareness program, under which, the ACLU observes, "every American—from the Nebraskan farmer to the Wall Street banker—will find themselves under the accusatory cyber-stare of an all-powerful national security apparatus."76 The rest of the list is mostly similar. Nicaraguans were the lucky ones during the first phase of the "war on terror." They at least had an army to defend them against state-supported terrorism. In neighboring states the terrorists were the security forces. El Salvador became the leading recipient of US military aid and training (Israel-Egypt aside) by the mid-1980s, as atrocities were peaking. Congress imposed human rights conditions on aid to Guatemala, compelling the Reaganites to resort to their international terror network to take over the task, including Argentine neo-Nazis (until they were overthrown at home), Israel, Taiwan, and others experienced in "counterterror." The torture and destruction of the civilian population were consequently much worse. The editors of Envio add that in December 1989, "the government of George Bush Sr. ordered the invasion of Panama, a military operation that bombed civilian neighborhoods and killed thousands of Panamanians just to flush out a single man, Manuel Noriega. Was that not state terrorism?"77 A fair question, though much stronger terms are used when those who lack the power to control history carry out such actions. Though "disappeared" by the victors in routine fashion, the crimes are not forgotten by the victims. Panamanians, too, while condemning the 9-11 attacks, recalled the death of perhaps thousands of poor people in the course of Operation Just Cause, undertaken to kidnap a disobedient thug who was sentenced to life imprisonment in Florida for crimes mostly committed while he was on the CIA payroll. One journalist remarked "how much alike [the victims of 9-11] are to the boys and girls ... to the mothers and the grandfathers and the little old grandmothers, all of them also innocent ... [when the] terror was called Just Cause and the terrorist called liberator."78 Perhaps such memories help account for the remarkably low level of international support for the US bombing of Afghanistan. In Latin America, where there is the longest experience of US violence, support was least, scarcely detectable. Latin Americans hardly have to be reminded by Carlos Salinas, former director of government relations for Amnesty International, that they "know better than perhaps most people that the U.S. government is one of the biggest sponsors of terrorism."79 It is easy to dismiss the world as "irrelevant" or consumed by "paranoid anti-Americanism," but perhaps not wise.
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Chapter 5 The Iraq Connection
After eight years, more reactionary sectors of the Reagan-Bush I administrations regained political power in the contested 2000 election. They recognized that the 9-11 atrocities provided them with an opportunity to pursue long-standing goals with even greater intensity, closely following the script of their earlier tenure in office. The Script: International For George Bush the younger, PR specialists and speechwriters have constructed the image of a simple man with a direct line to heaven, who relies on his "gut instincts" as he strides forward to "rid the world of evildoers" while contemplating his "visions" and "dreams," a caricature of ancient epics and children's tales, with an admixture of cowboy fiction. The first time around, the imagery constructed for the leader was not very different, and the rhetoric no less fevered: all states must band together to combat "the evil scourge of terrorism" (Reagan), particularly state-backed international terrorism, a "plague spread by depraved opponents of civilization itself," in a "return to barbarism in the modern age" (George Shultz).1 Important questions should have arisen at once: What constitutes terrorism? How does it differ from aggression or resistance? The operative answers are revealing, but the questions never entered the arena of public discussion. A convenient definition was adopted: terrorism is what our leaders declare it to be. Period. The practice continues as the war is redeclared.2 In the 1980s the two main foci of the "war on terror" were Central America and the Mideast/Mediterranean region. In Central America, as discussed, the war on terror instantly became a barbaric terrorist war, hailed as a grand success and discarded from history. In the Middle East, as we shall see, the commanders in Washington and their local associates were again responsible for crimes far exceeding anything charged to their official enemies. The facts are particularly noteworthy because the retail terror they were opposing was inflated by their propaganda systems to become the lead story of the year by the mid-1980s, an impressive achievement. Turning elsewhere, during the Reagan years Washington's South African ally had primary responsibility for more than 1.5 million dead and $60 billion in damage in the newly liberated Portuguese colonies of Angola and Mozambique. A UNICEF study estimated the death toll of infants and young children in these two countries at 850,000—150,000 in 1988 alone, reversing gains of the early post-independence years primarily through the weapon of "mass terrorism." That is putting aside South Africa's practices within its own borders, where it was defending civilization against the onslaughts of Nelson Mandela's African National Congress, one of the "more notorious terrorist groups," according to a 1988 Pentagon report. Meanwhile the Reaganites evaded sanctions, increased trade, and provided valuable diplomatic support for South Africa.3 One of the endeavors of the current incumbents has become well known: the success of the CIA and its associates during the 1980s in recruiting radical Islamists and organizing them into a military and terrorist force. The goal, according to Carter's national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, was "to draw the Russians into the Afghan trap," initially by secret operations that would induce them to invade Afghanistan. The Carter-Brzezinski reaction to the subsequent invasion was based on a complete misinterpretation of the Russian decision to intervene, according to the very Noam Chomsky
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knowledgeable analyst Raymond Garthoff. The Russian decision was undertaken reluctantly and with narrow and defensive objectives, as "is now clearly established in the Soviet archives," he writes. For the Reaganites, who took over a year later, "the single aim," he continues, was "bleeding the Russians and pillorying the Soviets in world opinion." The immediate result was a war that devastated Afghanistan, with even worse consequences after the Russians withdrew and Reagan's jihadis took over. The long-term result was two decades of terror and civil war. In the 1980s there was threat of worse, as "CIA-backed incursions of Afghan guerillas and saboteurs into Soviet territory nearly provoked a major Soviet-Pakistani, if not Soviet-American war," with unforeseeable consequences.4 After the Russians withdrew, the terror organizations recruited, armed, and trained by the US and its allies (among them Al Qaeda and similar jihadis) turned their attention elsewhere, inflaming the India-Pakistan conflict with "an unprecedented terrorist offensive in India in March 1993," and repeatedly bringing the region to the brink of nuclear war in later years as the flames spread. A month earlier, related groups had come close to blowing up the World Trade Center, following a "formula taught in CIA manuals." The planning was traced to followers of Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman, who had been helped to enter the US and was protected within the country by the CIA.5 Other consequences around the world need not be reviewed. Also at least partially familiar is the long-standing support of the present incumbents for Saddam Hussein, often attributed to obsession with Iran. That policy continued without change after Iran's capitulation in the Iran-Iraq war, because of "our duty to support U.S. exporters," the State Department explained in early 1990— adding the usual boilerplate about how aiding Saddam would improve human rights, regional stability, and peace. In October 1989, long after the war with Iran was over and more than a year after Saddam's gassing of the Kurds, President Bush I issued a national security directive declaring that "normal relations between the United States and Iraq would serve our longer-term interests and promote stability in both the Gulf and the Middle East." He took the occasion of the invasion of Panama shortly after to lift a ban on loans to Iraq. The US offered subsidized food supplies that Saddam's regime badly needed after its destruction of Kurdish agricultural production, along with advanced technology and biological agents adaptable to WMD. The warmth of the relations was indicated when a delegation of senators, led by Majority Leader and future Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole, visited Saddam in April 1990. They conveyed President Bush's greetings and assured Saddam that his problems did not lie with the US government but with "the haughty and pampered press." Senator Alan Simpson advised Saddam to "invite them to come here and see for themselves" to overcome their misconceptions. Dole assured Saddam that a commentator on Voice of America who had been critical of him had been removed.6 Saddam was not the only monster who won the acclaim of the current incumbents. Among others were Ferdinand Marcos, "Baby Doc" Duvalier, and Nicolae Ceau§escu; all were overthrown from within, despite strong US support until their fate was sealed. Other favorites included Indonesia's President Suharto, who competed with Saddam in barbarism. The first head of state honored with a visit to Bush the elder's White House was Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire, another high-ranking killer, torturer, and plunderer. The South Korean dictators also received Washington's strong support until US-backed military rule was finally overthrown in 1987 by popular movements. Even minor thugs could be assured of a warm welcome as long as they were performing their function. Secretary of State Shultz was so enamored of Manuel Noriega that he flew to Panama to congratulate him after he had stolen an election by fraud and violence, praising the gangster for "initiating the process of democracy." Later Noriega lost his usefulness in the contra war and other enterprises, and was transferred to the category of "evil"— although, like Saddam, his worst crimes were behind him. He then became the target of invasion and kidnapping from the Vatican Embassy in Operation Just Noam Chomsky
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Cause, with consequences already mentioned.7 Some of these rulers easily matched Saddam in internal terror. Ceau§escu provides an instructive case. Under his rule, the population lived in terror of his dread security forces, renowned for their torture and barbarism. A week after he was overthrown in an unanticipated popular revolt in December 1989, the Washington Post described how he had " destroy [ed] the economic, intellectual, and artistic fabric of Romania," compiling a "ghastly record in human rights." President Bush II spoke the truth when he made "a Kennedyesque appearance" at Liberation Square in Bucharest, praising the "nation that just twelve years ago deposed its own iron-fisted ruler, Nicolae Ceau§escu." It was a dramatic occasion: "With a cold rain pelting his black raincoat and uncovered head, Bush said, 'You know the difference between good and evil, because you have seen evil's face. The people of Romania understand that aggressive dictators cannot be appeased or ignored. They must always be opposed.' "8 The president and his admirers failed to mention just how his father and his own colleagues had honored the prescription that iron-fisted tyrants like Ceau§escu "must always be opposed." The answer turns out to be a familiar one: by supporting them. We confront "evil's face" by lending it a willing hand, at least if there is something to gain. The immediate post-revolution Washington Post article just cited was correct in reporting that "it is nice that President Bush [I] has offered to establish diplomatic relations with [Romania's] hastily organized Council of National Salvation, but that does not absolve the West for its role in helping to maintain this tyrant in recent years"—a message that seems to have gone the way of other unacceptable insights into the real world. In 1983, Vice President Bush expressed his admiration for Ceau-§escu's political and economic progress and "respect for human rights." Two years later Reagan's ambassador resigned because of Washington's objections to his concern for human rights. Shortly after, Secretary of State Shultz praised Romania as among the "good Communists," rewarding Ceau§escu with a visit and economic favors. So matters continued until the tyrant was overthrown—by Romanians, as in the case of other killers and torturers in the Reagan-Bush entourage. As soon as its favorite "good Communist" was eliminated, Washington announced that a "terrible burden" had been lifted from Romania, while at the same time lifting its ban on loans to Saddam Hussein in order to achieve the "goal of increasing US exports and put us in a better position to deal with Iraq regarding its human rights record," the State Department explained with a straight face.9 As always, the US leadership can confidently take credit for the overthrow of the tyrants it supported until the very end. Saddam Hussein has joined "the pantheon of failed brutal dictators" whom the US has deposed, Donald Rumsfeld proudly announced, including Ceau-§escu in the pantheon. On the same day as Rumsfeld's declaration, Paul Wolfowitz explained that his love of democracy was honed "during his formative years in the Reagan administration, when he was the State Department's chief Asia hand," praising the monstrous Suharto and supporting the brutal and corrupt Marcos, whose fall, he now claims, shows that democracy "needs the prodding of the US"10— which backed Marcos until he could no longer be sustained in the face of popular opposition joined even by the business classes and the army. The other examples are equally convincing. As the rogues' gallery of past friends fades into oblivion, new favorites take their place. Among them the Central Asian dictators— Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov, Turkmenistan's Saparmurat Niyazov, and others—who were becoming even more brutal and repressive as they were welcomed as participants in the redeclared "war on terror," also reinforcing the US position in a region of considerable material wealth and strategic significance. Or, in another corner of the world rich in coveted oil, there is Teodoro Obiang of Equatorial Guinea, who ranks high in the competition Noam Chomsky
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among bloody tyrants and was duly received with full honors by President Bush in September 2002, shortly before he was reelected to a seven-year term with 97 percent of the vote. An enthusiastic welcome has also been extended to Algeria, which had already been singled out for praise by Clinton's State Department for its achievements in combating terror—meaning, its horrendous record of state terrorist atrocities. Bush carried support for terror and torture to new extremes, offering military aid and other assistance to the Algerian government. Washington "has much to learn from Algeria on ways to fight terrorism," we learn from William Burns, US assistant secretary of state for the Middle East. "Mr. Burns is right," Robert Fisk comments. "America has much to learn from the Algerians," including the barbaric techniques of torture that Fisk and a few other journalists have been exposing for years and that are now confirmed by Algerian army defectors in London and Paris. "Up to 200,000 Algerians have been slaughtered in the eleven years since the military cancelled that country's first democratic elections because an Islamist party won," Lisa Marlowe writes. "If Algeria is the US model for countering Islamic fundamentalism, heaven help us all."11 The sample above illustrates the consistency of the foreign policy record of the current incumbents. The domestic record displays a similar consistency. The Script: Domestic The Reagan years saw a continuation of the relatively poor economic performance of the 1970s. Growth overwhelmingly benefited the very rich, unlike the "golden age" of the fifties and sixties, when it was evenly spread across the population. During the Reagan-Bush years real wages stagnated or declined along with benefits; working hours increased; and employers were given free rein to ignore protection for labor organizing. The policies were, naturally, unpopular. As the Bush I administration reached its final days, Reagan was ranked alongside Nixon as the least popular living ex-president.12 It is not easy, under such conditions, to maintain political power. Only one good method is known: inspire fear. That tactic was employed throughout the Reagan-Bush years, as the leadership conjured up one devil after another to frighten the populace into obedience. The threats to Americans during the first war on terror were immense. By November 1981, Libyan hit men were roaming the streets of Washington to assassinate the president, who courageously faced down the scoundrel Qaddafi. From the first moment, the administration recognized Libya to be a defenseless punching bag, and therefore set up confrontations in which many Libyans could be killed, hoping for a Libyan response that could be exploited to induce fear. Before Americans could breathe a sigh of relief over the president's lucky escape from the Libyan hit men, Qaddafi was on the march again, this time invading Sudan across 600 miles of desert, with the air forces of the US and its allies standing by helplessly. Qadaffi also allegedly concocted a plot to overthrow the government of Sudan so subtle that Sudanese and Egyptian intelligence knew nothing about it, as discovered by the few US reporters who took the trouble to investigate. The subsequent US show of force enabled Secretary of State Shultz to announce that Qaddafi "is back in his box where he belongs" because Reagan acted "quickly and decisively," demonstrating "the strength of the cowboy" that so entranced worshipful intellectuals (Paul Johnson, in this case). The episode was quickly relegated to oblivion once its purposes had been served.13
Just as the early Libyan threats subsided, another even more dangerous one appeared: an air base in Noam Chomsky
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Grenada that the Russians could use to bomb us. Fortunately, our leader came to the rescue in the nick of time. After turning down offers for peaceful settlement on US terms, Washington landed 6,000 elite forces, who were able to overcome the resistance of a few dozen lightly armed, middleaged Cuban construction workers, and we were at last "standing tall," the gallant cowboy in the White House proclaimed.14 But the threats were not over. Soon Nicaraguans were looming on the horizon, only two days' driving time from Harlingen, Texas, waving their copies of Mein Kampf. Fortunately, the commander in chief, recalling Churchill's stand against the Nazis, refused to surrender and was able to fend off the threatening hordes, even though they were being supplied by Qaddafi in his campaign to "expel America from the world."15 As the White House sought to mobilize congressional support for an intensified attack on Nicaragua in 1986, the Libyan threat was conjured up again with deadly US provocations in the Gulf of Sidra, followed by the bombing of Libya on prime-time TV, killing dozens, on no credible pretext. The official stance was that Article 51 of the UN Charter accords us the right to use violence "in selfdefense against future attack." That was perhaps the first explicit formulation of the doctrine of "preventive war," and the end of any hopes of a world of order and law, if taken at all seriously. And it was. New York Times legal analyst Anthony Lewis praised the Reagan administration for relying "on a legal argument that violence against the perpetrators of repeated violence is justified as an act of self-defense." Imagine the consequences if others were powerful enough to adopt the Reagan-Lewis doctrine.16 So matters continued through the decade. The European tourist industry went into periodic decline, as Americans were too frightened to travel to European cities because they might be attacked by crazed Arabs or other demons. Grave threats were concocted at home as well. Crime in the US is not very different from other industrial countries. Fear of crime, however, is much higher. The same is true of drugs: a problem in other societies, an imminent danger to our very existence in the US. It is easy for political leaders to use the media to whip up fear of these and other menaces. Campaigns are mounted periodically, when required by domestic political needs. Bush I's racist Willie Horton escapade in the 1988 election campaign is a famous example. The September 1989 redeclaration of the "drug war" was another striking illustration. In the face of substantial evidence to the contrary, the administration dramatically proclaimed that Hispanic narcotraffickers were a menace to our society. Officials could be confident that the tactic would succeed, as explained by journalist and editor Hodding Carter, former assistant secretary of state in the Carter administration. It's a "lead-pipe cinch," he wrote, that "the mass media in America have an overwhelming tendency to jump up and down and bark in concert whenever the White House— any White House—snaps its fingers." The campaign was a grand success—apart from affecting drug use. Fear of drugs instantly shot to the lead of public concerns. The stage was set for escalating the campaign to remove superfluous people from city streets to the new prisons that were rapidly being built; and to go on to Operation Just Cause, the glorious invasion of Panama on grounds of Noriega's involvement with drug trafficking, among other reasons. At the same time, the Bush administration was threatening Thailand with severe sanctions if it placed barriers on import of a far more lethal US-produced substance, tobacco. But all this passed in silence. In the case of Panama, too, there was a knockdown legal argument for invasion. UN ambassador Thomas Pickering instructed the Security Council that Article 51 of the UN Charter "provides for the use of armed force to defend a country, to defend our interests and our people," and to prevent "its territory from being used to smuggle drugs into the US"—in this case, by reinstating the white Noam Chomsky
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elite of bankers and businessmen, many of whom were themselves suspected of narcotrafficking and money laundering and who soon lived up to their reputation, US government agencies reported.17 Throughout, the legal arguments keep to a principle enunciated by the distinguished Israeli statesman Abba Eban: in "determining the legal basis" for some intended action, "one might work backward from the action one wished to take to find a legal justification."18 The script has been followed fairly closely as much the same elements gained a hold on political power in the 2000 election. In 1981 they had combined a vast increase in military spending with tax cuts, calculating "that growing hysteria over the ensuing deficit would create powerful pressures to cut federal [social] spending, and thus, perhaps, enable the Administration to accomplish its goal of rolling back the New Deal." Bush II followed the pattern with tax cuts overwhelmingly benefiting the very rich, and "the biggest surge in federal spending in twenty years,"19 largely military, hence indirectly high-tech industry. Government deficits require "fiscal discipline," which translates into cutbacks for services for the general population. The administration's own economists estimate the bills that the government will be unable to pay at $44 trillion. Their study was to be included in the annual budget report published in February 2003 but was removed, perhaps because it forecast that closing the gap would require a huge tax increase and Bush was trying to ram through another tax reduction, again benefiting mainly the rich. "President Bush is working overtime to deepen our fiscal trap," economists Laurence Kotlikoff and Jeffrey Sachs observe, reporting the enormous anticipated fiscal gap. Among the results, they contend, will be "massive cuts in future Social Security and Medicare benefits." White House spokesperson Ari Fleischer agreed with the $44 trillion estimate and implicitly conceded the accuracy of the analysis as well: "There is no question that Social Security and Medicare are going to present [future] generations with a crushing debt burden unless policymakers work seriously to reform those programs"—which does not mean funding them by progressive taxation. The problem is deepened by the serious financial crisis of states and cities.20 The editors of the staid Financial Times are only "stating the obvious," economist Paul Krugman comments, when they write that the "more extreme Republicans" with their hands on the controls seem to want a fiscal train wreck that "offers the tantalizing prospect of forcing [cuts on social programs] through the back door." Slated for demolition, Krugman contends, are Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security, but the same may be true for the whole range of programs of the past century that were developed to protect the population from the ravages of private power.21 Eliminating social programs has goals that go well beyond concentration of wealth and power. Social Security, public schools, and other such deviations from the "right way" that US military power is to impose on the world, as frankly declared, are based on evil doctrines, among them the pernicious belief that we should care, as a community, whether the disabled widow on the other side of town can make it through the day, or the child next door should have a chance for a decent future. These evil doctrines derive from the principle of sympathy that was taken to be the core of human nature by Adam Smith and David Hume, a principle that must be driven from the mind. Privatization has other benefits. If working people depend on the stock market for their pensions, health care, and other means of survival, they have a stake in undermining their own interests: opposing wage increases, health and safety regulations, and other measures that might cut into profits that flow to the benefactors on whom they must rely, in a manner reminiscent of feudalism. After a surge of presidential popularity following 9-11, polls revealed increasing discontent with the social and economic policies of the administration. If there was to be any hope of maintaining political power, the Bush forces were virtually compelled to adopt what Anatol Lieven calls "the Noam Chomsky
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classic modern strategy of an endangered right-wing oligarchy, which is to divert mass discontent into nationalism,"22 a strategy which is second nature to them in any event, having worked so well during their first twelve years in office. The strategy was outlined by Karl Rove, the chief political adviser: Republicans must "go to the country on the issue of national security" in November 2002, because voters "trust the Republican Party" for "protecting America." Similarly, he explained, Bush will have to be portrayed as a wartime leader for the 2004 presidential campaign. "As long as domestic issues were dominating news coverage and political battles over the summer, Bush and his Republicans lost ground," the chief international analyst for UPI pointed out. But the "imminent threat" of Iraq was conjured up just in time, in September 2002. Recognizing its vulnerability on domestic issues, "the administration is campaigning to sustain and increase its power on a policy of international adventurism, new radical preemptive military strategies, and a hunger for a politically convenient and perfectly timed confrontation with Iraq."23 For the midterm electoral campaign, the tactic worked—just. Even though voters "believe that Republicans are more concerned about large corporations than about ordinary Americans," they trust the Republicans on national security.24 In September, the National Security Strategy was announced. Manufactured fear provided enough of a popular base for the invasion of Iraq, instituting the new norm of aggressive war at will, and afforded the administration enough of a hold on political power so that it could proceed with a harsh and unpopular domestic agenda. Again, the script of the first tenure in power is being followed closely, though now with greater fervor, fewer external constraints, and considerably greater threats to peace. Insignificant Risks The war with Iraq was undertaken with the recognition that it might well lead to proliferation of WMD and terror, risks considered insignificant compared with the prospect of gaining control over Iraq, firmly establishing the norm of preventive war, and strengthening the hold on domestic power. Evidence as to how seriously real security threats ranked on the priority list was provided immediately after the announcement of the imperial grand strategy on September 17, 2002. The administration at once publicly "abandoned an international effort to strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention against germ warfare," advising allies that further discussions would have to be delayed for four years.25 As noted, in mid-October it was learned that during an earlier episode of playing with fire, the world was brought ominously close to nuclear war. Ten days later, on October 23, the UN Disarmament Committee adopted two crucial resolutions. The first called for stronger measures to prevent the militarization of space and thereby to "avert a grave danger for international peace and security." The second reaffirmed the 1925 Geneva Protocol "prohibiting the use of poisonous gases and bacteriological methods of warfare." Both passed unanimously, with two abstentions: the US and Israel. US abstention amounts to a veto: typically, a double veto, banning the events from reporting and history. In the mainstream media, there was no mention of these failed attempts by the rest of the world to prevent serious threats to survival. The meager press coverage of the startling revelations at the Havana retrospective in October 2002 had little to say about the highly topical issues of international terrorism and forceful regime change, or about the Iraq connection, which was very much in the minds of the participants. On their way to Havana, they had surely read the letter sent by CIA director George Tenet to the Senate Intelligence Committee chair, Senator Bob Graham, reporting that although there was little likelihood that Saddam would initiate a terrorist operation with conventional weapons or any Noam Chomsky
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chemical or biological weapons he might have, the probability would rise to "pretty high" in the event of US attack. The FBI also reported concerns "that a war with Iraq could trigger new domestic terrorism risks," as did the head of Homeland Security. The leading international militaryintelligence journal and allied intelligence agencies drew the same conclusions, adding the further observation that a US attack could "globalize anti-American and anti-Western sentiment... . Attacking Iraq would intensify Islamic terrorism, not reduce it": "a war in Iraq threatens to fuel unrest and create new terrorist threats, European security and police officials are warning their governments," recruiting new young people "to the evergrowing anti-US stand."26 Concurring, Richard Betts, a specialist on surprise attack and nuclear blackmail, wrote that in the event of a US invasion "Saddam will have no reason to withhold his best parting shot—which could be the use of [WMD] inside the United States"—that is, activating networks already in place. "The odds may be low," he observed: "perhaps as low" as what took place on 9-11.27 Those who have any concern for the safety and security of the people of the United States and other likely targets would not, of course, dismiss the odds as negligible. Mainstream experts agreed that an attack by the most powerful military force in history against a defenseless enemy might well stimulate the quest for revenge or deterrence. Prominent international relations scholars have pointed out that potential targets of US adventurism "know that the United States can be held at bay only by deterrence," primarily by WMD (Kenneth Waltz). In this way, "American policies stimulate the vertical proliferation of nuclear weapons and promote their spreading from one country to another." The same policies stimulate terrorism: "Unsurprisingly, ... weak states and disaffected people ... lash out at the United States as the agent or symbol of their suffering," and if no efforts are made to address their grievances, they are likely to react with the means available to them, including terror. US intelligence added that the "deepening economic stagnation" caused by Washington's version of globalization was likely to have similar effects.28 These warnings were not new. It had been recognized for some time that the industrial powers were likely to lose their virtual monopoly of violence, retaining only an enormous preponderance. Well before 9-11, technical studies had concluded that "a well-planned operation to smuggle WMD into the United States would have at least a 90 percent probability of success." This has become "America's Achilles' Heel," a study with that title concluded, reviewing the many options available to terrorists. The Council on Foreign Relations Task Force study adds others. The imminence of the danger was evident after the 1993 attempt to blow up the World Trade Center, which, with better planning, might have killed tens of thousands of people, the WTC building engineers reported.29 It was also anticipated that an attack on Iraq might stimulate proliferation in more direct ways. Terrorism specialist Daniel Benjamin (no dove) observed that an invasion might cause "the greatest proliferation disaster in history." Saddam Hussein had proven himself to be a brutal tyrant, but a rational one. If he had chemical and biological weapons, they were kept under tight control and "subjected to a proper chain of command." He would surely not put them in the hands of the Osama bin Ladens of the world, a terrible threat to Saddam himself. But under attack, Iraqi society might collapse, and with it the controls over WMD, which might be offered to the huge "market for unconventional weapons"—a "nightmare scenario" from every point of view. Postwar investigation reveals that Benjamin's concerns may have been realized with the looting of nuclear sites.30 This prewar establishment critique had a number of important features. First, it echoed concerns in the same circles about the posture of a "rogue superpower" that much of the world regards as the greatest threat to world peace and "the single greatest external threat to their societies." Second, it encompassed an unusually broad spectrum of voices: the comments cited above come from US and world intelligence agencies; the world's leading military journal; the January 2003 issues of the two Noam Chomsky
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major national foreign policy journals; an unusual publication of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences; some of the most respected specialists on international affairs, terrorism, and strategic analysis; and even the "wizards of Davos" who dominate the world's economy. Whatever one thinks of their judgments, it would not be easy to find a historical precedent for such a critique of a planned war, just as there was no precedent at all for popular opposition to a war prior to its being officially launched. Third, though this critique originated in the establishment, it was ignored. The administration made no effort to counter it, indeed hardly seemed to notice it, which makes sense. From a propaganda point of view, the most powerful state in history needs no justification or serious argument for its actions: declaration of noble intent should suffice. Just as the UN is informed that it can be "relevant" and authorize what we are going to do or suffer the consequences, so the world should be put on notice that the hegemonic power bears no burden of proof for its resort to violence, or any other action. It would be a derogation of authority to acknowledge, let alone refute, "critical noises" (to borrow McGeorge Bundy's derisive phrase). The critics are right that the superpower stance might lead to self-destruction, but such concerns have commonly not been a high priority of leaders. In the present case, the administration was surely aware, even without warnings from respected authorities, that its planned war against Iraq and other related actions were likely to increase the risks of proliferation of WMD and terror against the US and its allies. But evidently it assigns low priority to such threats compared with other goals. Furthermore, though planners of course do not welcome the proliferation of WMD and terrorism, they know that they can exploit such developments for their own purposes, both global and domestic. Even the fear they elicit throughout the world is quite acceptable: they are not trying to be loved, but obeyed, and if this is achieved by fear, that is fine—another contribution to "maintaining credibility." As for the goals, senior Middle East correspondent and analyst Youssef Ibrahim was no doubt oversimplifying when he identified them as "bolstering the president's popularity" for short-term political gain and "turning a 'friendly' Iraq into a private American oil pumping station."31 But there is good reason to believe that his observations at least point in the right direction. Maintaining a hold on political power and enhancing US control of the world's primary energy sources are major steps toward the twin goals that have been declared with considerable clarity: to institutionalize a radical restructuring of domestic society that will roll back the progressive reforms of a century, and to establish an imperial grand strategy of permanent world domination. Compared with such ends, the risks may well seem insignificant. The Wild Men in the Wings Establishment critics and the White House tended to focus on the same issues as the Security Council debates and the inspections: the Iraqi threat, WMD, and the subcategory of terror that enters the canon. None of the debates gave more than a passing nod to "democratization" or "liberation" or any other issues that lie beyond the potential threat to the US and its allies. There was little discussion, for example, of the possible effects of war on the population of Iraq, except among "the wild men in the wings," to borrow the term used by McGeorge Bundy to refer to those who felt that more was involved in the Vietnam War than military success and its cost to the invaders. As Washington marched resolutely to war against Iraq, the wild men and women were again looking beyond the narrow question of the costs to themselves. With the Iraqi people at the edge of survival after a decade of destructive sanctions, international aid and medical agencies warned that a war might lead to a serious humanitarian catastrophe. Switzerland hosted a meeting of thirty countries to prepare for what might lie ahead. The US alone Noam Chomsky
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refused to attend. Participants, including the other four permanent Security Council members, "warned of devastating humanitarian consequences of a war." Former assistant secretary of defense Kenneth Bacon, head of the Washington-based Refugees International, predicted that "a war will generate huge flows of refugees and a public health crisis." Meanwhile, US plans for humanitarian relief in a postwar Iraq were criticized by international aid agencies as "short on detail, woefully lacking in money, and overly controlled by the military." UN officials complained, "There is a studied lack of interest [in Washington] in a warning call we are trying to deliver to the people planning for war, about what its consequences might be."32 Horrifying and brutal as Saddam Hussein's regime was, he nevertheless did direct oil profits to internal development. "A tyrant, at the head of a regime that has turned violence into an instrument of state," with a "hideous human rights record," he nevertheless "had hoisted half the country's population into the middle class, and Arabs the world over ... came to study at Iraqi universities."33 The 1991 war, involving the purposeful destruction of water, power, and sewage systems, took a terrible toll, and the sanctions regime imposed by the US and UK drove the country to the level of bare survival.34 As one illustration, UNICEF's 2003 Report on the State of the World's Children states that "Iraq's regression over the past decade is by far the most severe of the 193 countries surveyed," with the child death rate, "the best single indicator of child welfare," increasing from 50 to 133 per 1,000 live births, placing Iraq below every country outside Africa apart from Cambodia and Afghanistan. Two hawkish military analysts observe that "economic sanctions may well have been a necessary [sic] cause of the deaths of more people in Iraq than have been slain by all socalled weapons of mass destruction throughout history," in the hundreds of thousands according to conservative estimates.35 No Westerners know Iraq better than Denis Halliday and Hans von Sponeck, the respected UN diplomats who were the chief UN humanitarian coordinators, with an international staff of hundreds of investigators traveling daily through the country. Both resigned in protest at what Halliday described as the "genocidal" character of the US-UK sanctions regime. Both reject claims that food and medicine were being withheld by the authorities. Their successor, Tun Myat, backed their view, describing the Iraqi system "as the best distribution system that he had ever seen in his life, as a World Food Program official." The senior UN World Food Program official reported that the WFP had conducted more than a million inspections of the system and "uncovered no significant evidence of fraud or favoritism." He added that there was "no way we could create something else that would work half as well" as the Iraqi system, which is "the most efficient in the world," and that "the risk of a large-scale humanitarian crisis" would increase if anything happened to disrupt it.36 As Halliday, von Sponeck, and others had pointed out for years, the sanctions devastated the population while strengthening Saddam Hussein and his clique, also increasing the dependency of the Iraqi people on the tyrant for their survival. Von Sponeck, who resigned in 2000, reported that the US and UK "systematically tried to prevent [him and Halliday] from briefing the Security Council... because they didn't want to hear what we had to say" about the savagery of the sanctions.37 The US media apparently agree. Though the expert knowledge of the UN coordinators is without parallel, Americans have had to turn elsewhere to hear what they had to say, even at a moment of laserlike fixation on Iraq. Discussion of the effects of the sanctions has been minimal and apologetic, the usual procedure with regard to the crimes of one's own state.
Academic researcher Joy Gordon found that even the information that does reach the Security Council "is kept from public scrutiny," though she learned enough, as have others, to reveal a Noam Chomsky
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shameful record of deliberate cruelty and efforts pursued "aggressively throughout the last decade to purposefully minimize the humanitarian goods that enter the country ... in the face of enormous human suffering, including massive increases in child mortality and widespread epidemics." The US blocked water tankers from reaching Iraq on grounds so spurious that they were rejected by the UN arms experts, "this during a time when the major cause of child deaths was lack of access to clean drinking water, and when the country was in the midst of a drought." Washington insisted that vaccines for infant diseases be withheld until it was compelled to back down in the face of vigorous protest by UNICEF and the World Health Organization, supported by European biological-weapons experts, who charged that the dual-use claims of the US were "flatly impossible."38 The International Red Cross, drawing on its own intimate familiarity with the country, concluded in 1999 that after a decade of sanctions, "the Iraqi economy lies in tatters" and "the 'oil-for-food' programme, introduced by UN Resolution 986 in 1995, has not halted the collapse of the health system and the deterioration of water supplies, which together pose one of the gravest threats to the health and well-being of the civilian population." Aid agencies "can only hope to mitigate some of the worst effects of the sanctions [and] cannot nearly cover the overwhelming needs of twenty-two million people," the ICRC reported.39 Defenders of the sanctions regime argued that the appalling situation was Saddam's fault, because of his refusal to comply fully with UN resolutions and his construction of palaces and monuments to himself, and so on (funded by money diverted from smuggling and other illegal operations, according to the testimony of UN humanitarian coordinators and the World Food Program). The argument, then, was that we had to punish Saddam for his crimes by crushing his victims and strengthening their torturer. By similar logic, if a criminal hijacks a school bus, we should blow it up and murder the passengers, but rescue and reward the hijacker, justifying the actions on grounds that it was his fault.40 "Studied lack of interest" in the likely consequences of war for the population of the country to be invaded is conventional. The same was true when, five days after 9-11, Washington demanded that Pakistan eliminate "truck convoys that provide much of the food and other supplies to Afghanistan's civilian population," and caused the withdrawal of aid workers along with severe reduction in food supplies, thereby leaving "millions of Afghans ... at grave risk of starvation"41—risk of what should properly have been termed "silent genocide." Estimates of the numbers "at grave risk of starvation" rose from 5 million before 9-11 to 7.5 million a month later. The threat and then reality of bombing elicited sharp protests from aid organizations and warnings of what might ensue, which received only scattered and very partial attention, and little reaction. Perhaps it's worth repeating the obvious. One always hopes that worst-case scenarios will not materialize, and every effort should always be dedicated to that end. But exactly as in the case of Khrushchev's dispatch of missiles to Cuba, which could have led to nuclear war but didn't, it is the range of likely possibilities that determines the evaluation of policy choices that are made, at least for those capable of entertaining elementary moral standards. Trivially, that judgment remains true whatever the outcome, a truism we understand well enough when applied to official enemies but find much harder to apply to ourselves.
Democracy and Human Rights As noted, establishment critics restricted their comments regarding the attack on Iraq to the administration arguments they took to be seriously intended: disarmament, deterrence, and links to Noam Chomsky
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terrorism. They scarcely made reference to liberation, democratization of the Middle East, and other matters that would render irrelevant the inspections and indeed everything that took place at the Security Council or within governmental domains. The reason, perhaps, is that they recognized that lofty rhetoric is the obligatory accompaniment of virtually any resort to force and therefore carries no information. The rhetoric is doubly hard to take seriously in the light of the display of contempt for democracy that accompanied it, not to speak of the past record and current practices. Critics are also aware that nothing has been heard from the present incumbents—with their alleged concern for Iraqi democracy—to indicate that they have any regrets for their previous support for Saddam Hussein (or others like him, still continuing) nor have they shown any signs of contrition for having helped him develop WMD when he really was a serious danger. Nor has the current leadership explained when, or why, they abandoned their 1991 view that "the best of all worlds" would be "an iron-fisted Iraqi junta without Saddam Hussein" that would rule as Saddam did but not make the error of judgment in August 1990 that ruined Saddam's record.42 At the time, the incumbents' British allies were in the opposition and therefore more free than the Thatcherites to speak out against Saddam's British-backed crimes. Their names are noteworthy by their absence from the parliamentary record of protests against these crimes, including Tony Blair, Jack Straw, Geoff Hoon, and other leading figures of New Labour. In December 2002, Jack Straw, then foreign minister, released a dossier of Saddam's crimes. It was drawn almost entirely from the period of firm US-UK support, a fact overlooked with the usual display of moral integrity. The timing and quality of the dossier raised many questions, but those aside, Straw failed to provide an explanation for his very recent conversion to skepticism about Saddam Hussein's good character and behavior. When Straw was home secretary in 2001, an Iraqi who fled to England after detention and torture requested asylum. Straw denied his request. The Home Office explained that Straw "is aware that Iraq, and in particular the Iraqi security forces, would only convict and sentence a person in the courts with the provision of proper jurisdiction," so that "you could expect to receive a fair trial under an independent and properly constituted judiciary." Straw's conversion must, then, have been rather similar to President Clinton's discovery, sometime between September 8 and 11, 1999, that Indonesia had done some unpleasant things in East Timor in the past twenty-five years when it enjoyed decisive support from the US and Britain.43 Attitudes toward democracy were revealed with unusual clarity during the mobilization for war in the fall of 2002, as it became necessary to deal somehow with the overwhelming popular opposition. Within the "coalition of the willing," the US public was at least partially controlled by the propaganda campaign unleashed in September. In Britain, the population was split roughly fiftyfifty on the war, but the government maintained the stance of "junior partner" it had accepted reluctantly after World War II and had kept to even in the face of the contemptuous dismissal of British concerns by US leaders at moments when the country's very survival was at stake. Outside the two full members of the coalition, problems were more serious. In the two major European countries, Germany and France, the official government stands corresponded to the views of the large majority of their populations, which unequivocally opposed the war. That led to bitter condemnation by Washington and many commentators. Donald Rumsfeld dismissed the offending nations as just the "Old Europe," of no concern because of their reluctance to toe Washington's line. The "New Europe" is symbolized by Italy, whose prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, was visiting the White House. It was, evidently, unproblematic that public opinion in Italy was overwhelmingly opposed to the war. The governments of Old and New Europe were distinguished by a simple criterion: a government joined Old Europe in its iniquity if and only if it took the same position as the vast majority of its Noam Chomsky
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population and refused to follow orders from Washington. Recall that the self-appointed rulers of the world—Bush, Powell, and the rest—had declared forthrightly that they intended to carry out their war whether or not the UN or anyone else "catches up" and "becomes relevant." Old Europe, mired in irrelevance, did not catch up. Neither did New Europe, at least if people are part of their countries. Poll results available from Gallup International, as well as local sources for most of Europe, West and East, showed that support for a war carried out "unilaterally by America and its allies" did not rise above 11 percent in any country. Support for a war if mandated by the UN ranged from 13 percent (Spain) to 51 percent (Netherlands). Particularly interesting are the eight countries whose leaders declared themselves to be the New Europe, to much acclaim for their courage and integrity. Their declaration took the form of a statement calling on the Security Council to ensure "full compliance with its resolutions," without specifying the means. Their announcement threatened "to isolate the Germans and French," the press reported triumphantly, though the positions of New and Old Europe were in fact scarcely different. To ensure that Germany and France would be "isolated," they were not invited to sign the bold pronouncement of New Europe—apparently for fear that they would do so, it was later quietly indicated.44 The standard interpretation is that the exciting and promising New Europe stood behind Washington, thus demonstrating that "many Europeans supported the United States' view, even if France and Germany did not."45 Who were these "many Europeans"? Checking polls, we find that in New Europe, opposition to "the United States' view" was for the most part even higher than in France and Germany, particularly in Italy and Spain, which were singled out for praise for their leadership of New Europe. Happily for Washington, former communist countries too joined New Europe. Within them, support for the "United States' view," as defined by Powell—namely, war by the "coalition of the willing" without UN authorization—ranged from 4 percent (Macedonia) to 11 percent (Romania). Support for a war even with a UN mandate was also very low. Latvia's former foreign minister explained that we have to "salute and shout, 'Yes sir.' ... We have to please America no matter what the cost."46 In brief, in journals that regard democracy as a significant value, headlines would have read that Old Europe in fact included the vast majority of Europeans, East and West, while New Europe consisted of a few leaders who chose to line up (ambiguously) with Washington, disregarding the overwhelming opinion of their own populations. But actual reporting was mostly scattered and oblique, depicting opposition to the war as a marketing problem for Washington. Toward the liberal end of the spectrum, Richard Holbrooke stressed the "very important point [that] if you add up the population of [the eight countries of the original New Europe], it was larger than the population of those countries not signing the letter." True enough, though something is omitted: the populations were overwhelmingly opposed to the war, mostly even more so than in those countries dismissed as Old Europe.47 At the other extreme of the spectrum, the editors of the Wall Street Journal applauded the statement of the eight original signers for "exposing as fraudulent the conventional wisdom that France and Germany speak for all of Europe, and that all of Europe is now anti-American." The eight honorable New European leaders showed that "the views of the Continent's pro-American majority weren't being heard," apart from the editorial pages of the Journal, now vindicated. The editors blasted the media to their "left"—a rather substantial segment — which "peddled as true" the ridiculous idea that France and Germany spoke for Europe, when they were clearly a pitiful minority, and peddled these lies "because they served the political purposes of those, both in Europe and America, who oppose President Bush on Iraq." This Noam Chomsky
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conclusion does hold if we exclude Europeans from Europe, rejecting the radical left doctrine that people have some kind of role in democratic societies.48 Back among the liberals, Thomas Friedman suggested that France should be driven off the Security Council and replaced by India, which is "just so much more serious than France these days... . France, as they say in kindergarten, does not play well with others," and therefore doesn't "line up against Saddam," but is "caught up with its need to differentiate itself from America" in an effort to be "unique." To translate, the French government acted in accord with popular opinion, which was opposed to Washington's war plans. Therefore France was "in kindergarten," though the population of New Europe must still have been in nursery school, judging by polls. India, on the other hand, is "serious," now that it is governed by a proto-fascist party that is handing the country's resources to foreign multinationals while preaching an ultra-nationalist line for domestic purposes, and had just been implicated in a horrendous massacre of Muslims in Gujarat. And as Friedman has reported enthusiastically elsewhere, India has a wonderful software industry and sectors of great wealth— uninterestingly, also hundreds of millions of people living under some of the worst conditions in the world, where the plight of women is not very different from life under the Taliban. All of this is of no concern as long as India is "serious," just as life under the Taliban was of no concern as long as they were considered cooperative.49 Others preferred the Kagan-Boot stand: Berlusconi, Aznar, and the other Churchillian figures who joined Washington demonstrated "unparalleled political courage" by keeping to their understanding of Right and Wrong instead of sheepishly succumbing to the "paranoid, conspiratorial antiAmericanism" of the vast majority of Europeans, who are "driven by avarice" and therefore unable to comprehend the "strain of idealism [that] makes America tick." True, those leaders made no discernible effort to enlighten the misguided populations whose views they disregarded while courageously lining up behind the most powerful military force in history. But perhaps they are not really duplicates of Churchill and FDR standing up to Hitler; rather of President Bush, whose "moral rectitude" derives from his "evangelical zeal," as proven by the fact that his PR agents tell us so.50 There are many other illustrations. When Gerhard Schroeder dared to take the position of the overwhelming majority of German voters in the 2002 election, he was bitterly condemned for his shocking failure of leadership, one illustration of a serious problem—"the government lives in fear of its voters"—that Germany must overcome if it wants to be accepted in the civilized world.51 The case of Turkey is particularly revealing. Like others throughout the region, Turks despised Saddam Hussein but did not fear him. They also strongly opposed the war: about 90 percent in January 2003, when efforts were peaking to ensure that political leaders, if not their populations, would join Washington's enterprise. The government acted in accord with the will of the people. That shows that the elected government lacks "democratic credentials," we learned on the day the polls were released, in a commentary by former ambassador to Turkey Morton Abramowitz, now a distinguished senior statesman and commentator. Ten years ago, he explained, "most of Turkey, like today, was against any involvement in a war with Iraq." But there was "one notable exception": President Turgut Ozal, a true democrat who "overrode his countrymen's pronounced preference to stay out of the Gulf war." Sadly, however, the current leadership is now "following the people when it comes to participating in another Iraq war," rather than succumbing to intense pressures from Washington. "Regrettably," Abramowitz sighed, "for the US there is no true democrat around," as there was ten years ago.52 Demonstrating still more clearly the lack of democratic credentials of the governing party, its unofficial leader, Recep Tayyip Erdo-gan, not only criticized Washington's rush to war but took a Noam Chomsky
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step into truly forbidden territory, criticizing "countries—the US included—that built up their own weapons of mass destruction while trying to force others to get rid of theirs."53 As US pressures mounted, Turkey's democracy began to improve. While popular opinion apparently turned even more strongly against the war, the government finally yielded to severe US economic and other coercion, and agreed to comply with Washington's demands over "overwhelming" popular opposition. A "Western diplomat"— probably from the US Embassy— told the press that he was "encouraged" by the decision, and found it a "very positive thing." Turkey correspondent Amberin Zaman added that A war against Iraq remains deeply unpopular among the Turkish population. That is why Thursday's parliamentary session was closed to the public and balloting was secret. Headlines were stinging in their criticism of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party on Friday. The front page of the respected daily Radikal said "the parliament ran away from the people." With near unanimity, Turks opposed Washington's orders, but it was understood that the leadership must obey, and Turkey joined New Europe.54 Or so it appeared. In the end, the Turks proceeded to teach a lesson in democracy to the West. Parliament finally refused to allow US troops to be deployed fully in Turkey. To formulate the outcome within the conventional framework: The ground war has been hampered because Turkey did not accept its role as host of the northern front forces, again for political reasons. Its government was too weak in the face of antiwar feeling.55 The presuppositions are clear. Strong governments disregard their populations and "accept the role" assigned to them by the global ruler; weak governments succumb to the will of 95 percent of their population. The crucial point was expressed clearly by Pentagon planner Paul Wolfowitz. He too berated the Turkish government for its misbehavior, but went on to condemn the military, who "did not play the strong leadership role that we would have expected" but betrayed weakness in permitting the government to honor near-unanimous public opinion. Turkey, he argued, had therefore to step up and say, "We made a mistake... . Let's figure out how we can be as helpful as possible to the Americans." Wolfowitz's stand is particularly instructive because he is presented as the leading visionary in the crusade to democratize the Middle East.S6 The pronouncements about the Old and New Europe, and the hysteria that often accompanied them, provide some informative lessons about prevailing attitudes toward democracy among political and intellectual elites. Dislike of democracy is nothing new. For obvious reasons, it is a traditional stance of those who have a share in power and privilege. But it is rarely so starkly illuminated. That may help explain why establishment critics scarcely refer to the democratization rhetoric that accompanies the political leadership's dramatic display of contempt for democracy, evidently widely shared, to judge by commentary. Knowledgeable commentators have pointed to the "uncomfortable dualism" in Bush's foreign policy, with "Bush the neo-Reaganite" making "ringing calls for a vigorous new democracy campaign in the Middle East," while policy imperatives tempt "Washington to put aside its democratic scruples and seek closer ties with autocracies"— as in the past, with remarkable consistency. Reviewing this "dualism" and the continuing support for brutal and repressive regimes, Thomas Carothers expressed his hope that Bush would shift to "the true spirit of President Ronald Reagan's foreign policy" with its "attempts to spread democracy."57 Noam Chomsky
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These hopes are particularly interesting because of their source. Carothers has done some of the most careful work elucidating the "true spirit" of Reaganite dedication to democracy. He combines the standpoint of a scholar with that of an insider, having been a participant in the Reagan State Department's Democracy Enhancement projects in Latin America. He regards these programs as "sincere [but a] failure." Where Washington's influence was least, in the southern cone of Latin America, there was progress toward democracy, which the Reagan administration sought to impede but finally accepted. Where Washington's influence was greatest, success was least. The reason, Carothers explains, is that the Reaganite yearning for democracy was restricted to "limited, topdown forms of democratic change that did not risk upsetting the traditional structures of power with which the United States has long been allied." Washington sought to maintain "the basic order of... quite undemocratic societies" and to avoid "populist-based change." Carothers recognizes that there is a liberal critique of the Reaganite approach, but he rejects it because of its "perennial weak spot": it offers no alternative. The option of allowing the population a meaningful voice in running their own affairs is not an alternative, not even to be dismissed. Carothers also does not discuss the dedicated efforts during those years to undermine the threat of more meaningful democracy where it arose.58 The targeted populations are well aware of the nature of the democracy that is being brought to them. It has been regularly observed that the extension of formal democracy in Latin America has been accompanied by increasing disillusionment about democracy. One reason, pointed out some years ago by Argentine political scientist Atilio Boron, is that the new wave of democratization in Latin America has coincided with neoliberal economic reforms, which undermine effective democracy.59 The postwar Bretton Woods system was based on capital controls and relatively fixed currencies, not only in the expectation of economic benefit, as proved to be the case, but also to allow governments space to carry out highly popular social democratic policies. It was understood that the kind of financial liberalization that opened the neoliberal era in the 1970s reduces the options for democratic choice, transferring decisions to the hands of a "virtual Senate" of investors and lenders.60 Governments now face a " 'dual constituency conundrum,' which pits the interests of voters against foreign currency traders and hedge fund managers 'who conduct a moment-to-moment referendum' on the economic and financial policies of developing and developed nations alike," and the competition is highly unequal. John Maynard Keynes warned seventy years ago "that nothing less than the democratic experiment in self-government was endangered by the threat of global financial market forces." The secretarygeneral of the Organization of American States, a strong advocate of neoliberal globalization, opened the annual session by warning that free movement of capital, "the most undesirable feature of globalisation"—in fact, its core feature—is the "greatest obstacle" to democratic governance, just as Keynes had warned.61 The fears go back to Adam Smith. His sole use of the phrase "invisible hand" in Wealth of Nations is in a discussion of the harmful consequences of foreign investment, which England need not fear, he believed, because an "invisible hand" will induce investors to keep their capital at home. The same is true of other parts of the neoliberal package: privatization, for example, reduces the arena of potential democratic choice, dramatically in the case of liberalization of "services," which has evoked enormous popular opposition. Even in narrow economic terms, the privatization programs were imposed with little if any solid empirical evidence or theoretical grounding.62 Disillusionment with formal democracy has been evident in the US as well, increasing through the neoliberal period. There was much clamor about the "stolen election" of November 2000, and surprise that the public did not seem to care very much. Likely reasons are suggested by public opinion studies, which reveal that on the eve of the election, three-quarters of the population Noam Chomsky
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regarded it as a game played by large contributors, party leaders, and the PR industry, which crafted candidates to say "almost anything to get themselves elected." On almost all issues, citizens could not identify the stands of the candidates—as intended. Issues on which the public differs from elite opinion are generally off the agenda. Voters were directed to "personal qualities," not "issues." Among voters, heavily skewed toward the wealthy, those who recognize their class interests to be at stake tend to vote to protect those interests: for the more reactionary of the two business parties. But the general public splits its vote in other ways, sometimes, as in 2000, leading to a statistical tie. Among working people, noneconomic issues such as gun ownership and "religiosity" were leading factors, so that people often voted against their own primary interests—apparently assuming that they had little choice. In 2000, feelings of "powerlessness" reached the highest level recorded, over 50 percent.63 What remains of democracy is largely the right to choose among commodities. Business leaders have long explained the need to impose on the population a "philosophy of futility" and "lack of purpose in life," to "concentrate human attention on the more superficial things that comprise much of fashionable consumption."64 Deluged by such propaganda from infancy, people may then accept their meaningless and subordinate lives and forget ridiculous ideas about managing their own affairs. They may abandon their fate to corporate managers and the PR industry and, in the political realm, to the self-described "intelligent minorities" who serve and administer power. From this perspective, conventional in elite opinion, the November 2000 elections did not reveal a flaw of US democracy, but rather its triumph. And generalizing, it is fair to hail the triumph of democracy throughout the hemisphere, and elsewhere, even though the populations do not see it that way. Liberation from Tyranny: Constructive Solutions The implausibility of the belief that Washington is suddenly concerned with democracy and human rights in Iraq, or elsewhere, should not prevent the "wild men in the wings" from persisting in their commitment to these ends and, to the extent possible, exerting influence in that direction. In the case of Iraq, there was always good reason to take seriously the conclusions of the most knowledgeable observers that a "constructive solution" to regime change in Iraq "would be to lift the economic sanctions that have impoverished society, decimated the Iraqi middle class and eliminated any possibility for the emergence of alternative leadership," while "twelve years of sanctions have only strengthened the current regime" (Hans von Sponeck). Furthermore, the sanctions compelled the population to depend for survival on the reigning tyranny, reducing even more the likelihood of a constructive solution. "We have sustained [the regime and] denied the opportunities for change," Denis Halliday added: "I believe if the Iraqis had their economy, had their lives back, and had their way of life restored, they would take care of the form of governance that they want, that they believe is suitable to their country."65 Were these illusions? The historical record hardly suggests so. Again, consider the fate of the miserable tyrants supported by the current incumbents until the very end of their bloody rule, all overthrown by internal revolt. The case of Ceau§escu, only one of many, is particularly instructive because of the nature of the internal tyrannies. As priorities shifted in 2002, it was claimed that those who shared responsibility for twenty years of torture of Iraqis were entitled to resort to violence to bring about democracy. Even their consistent record of support for savagery and tyranny and their hostility to democracy, demonstrated with unusual passion at that very moment, provided no reason to question the proclaimed intentions. But Noam Chomsky
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suspending disbelief, violence can be considered only if constructive solutions have clearly failed. Since such solutions were not even permitted in the case of Iraq, it can hardly be maintained that the stage of last resort had been reached. That conclusion holds whatever one's subjective judgments may be about the likelihood of success, all basically irrelevant. To paraphrase Lisa Marlowe, if this is to be the model for the hegemonic superpower, heaven help us all. Since the Reagan-Bush I years (in fact before), Washington had supported Saddam Hussein in varying ways. After he stepped out of line in August 1990, policies and pretexts varied, but one element remained constant: the people of Iraq must not control their country. To repeat, the tyrant was permitted to suppress the 1991 uprising because, we were informed, Washington sought a military junta that would rule the country with an "iron fist," and if no alternative is available, Saddam would have to do. The rebels failed because "very few people outside Iraq wanted them to win"—meaning Washington and its local allies, who held the "strikingly unanimous view" that "whatever the sins of the Iraqi leader, he offered the West and the region a better hope for his country's stability than did those who have suffered his repression." It was impressive to see how uniformly all of this was suppressed in the shocked commentary and reporting on the exposure of the mass graves of the victims of Saddam's US-authorized paroxysm of terror, offered as justification for the recent war on "moral grounds" now that we have seen "the mass graves and the true extent of Saddam's genocidal evil," all known at once in 1991 but ignored because of the imperative of "stability."66 The uprising would have left the country in the hands of Iraqis who might have been independent of Washington. The sanctions of the following years undercut the possibility of the kind of popular revolt that had overthrown other monsters who were also strongly supported by the current incumbents. The US sought to instigate coups by groups it controlled, but a popular rebellion would not have left the US in charge. At the Azores summit in March 2003, Bush reiterated that stand, declaring that the US would invade even if Saddam and his cohorts were to leave the country. The question of who should rule Iraq remains a prime issue of contention. Leading figures of the US-backed opposition demanded at once that the UN play a vital role in postwar Iraq and rejected US control of reconstruction or of the post-Saddam government. They strongly opposed "US hegemony over Iraq." Even Washington's chosen figures vigorously protested the plans to sideline them in favor of a US occupation. There were also indications that the Shi'ite majority might support an Islamic Republic if given a voice, hardly to the taste of Washington and its plans for the region. There seems little reason to doubt that US policymakers will attempt to follow the consistent practice elsewhere: formal democracy is fine, but only if it obeys orders, like New Europe, or the "limited top-down" democracies in Latin America run by "the traditional structures of power with which the United States has long been allied" (Carothers). Brent Scowcroft, national security adviser for Bush I, spoke for the moderates when he observed that if there is an election in Iraq and "the radicals win... . We're surely not going to let them take over."67 Thus if the Shi'ite majority has a significant voice in post-Saddam Iraq and joins others in the region in trying to improve relations with Iran, they will be "radicals" and treated accordingly. One can only expect the same if secular democrats win who prove to be "radicals," unless we decide that history is bunk. The basic lines of US thinking were illustrated in the organization chart of the "Civil Administration of Postwar Iraq." There are sixteen boxes, each containing a name in boldface and a designation of the person's responsibility, from presidential envoy Paul Bremer at the top (answering to the Pentagon), down through the chart. Seven are generals, most of the rest government officials, none Noam Chomsky
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Iraqis. At the very bottom, there is a seventeenth box, about one third the size of the others, with no names, no boldface, and no functions: it reads "Iraqi ministry advisers."68 Some puzzled notice has been taken of the change in US policy with regard to postwar control in Iraq. Elsewhere, Washington has been happy to transfer responsibility and costs to others, but in Iraq, it has insisted on running the show itself. There is no inconsistency. "Iraq is not East Timor, Kosovo and Afghanistan," Condoleezza Rice rightly stressed.69 She did not spell out the distinction. Perhaps it is too transparent: Iraq is a major prize; the others are considered basket cases. Therefore Washington must be in charge, not the UN, not the Iraqi people. Putting aside the crucial question of who will be in charge, those concerned with the tragedy of Iraq had three basic goals: (1) overthrowing the tyranny, (2) ending the sanctions that were targeting the people, not the rulers, and (3) preserving some semblance of world order. There can be no disagreement among decent people on the first two goals: achieving them is an occasion for rejoicing, particularly for those who protested US support for Saddam before his invasion of Kuwait and again immediately afterward, and opposed the sanctions regime that followed; they can therefore applaud the outcome without hypocrisy. The second goal could surely have been achieved, and possibly the first as well, without undermining the third. The Bush administration openly declared its intention to dismantle what remained of the system of world order and to control the world by force, with Iraq serving as the "petri dish," as the New York Times called it, for establishing the new "norms." It was that declared intention that elicited fear and often hatred throughout the world, and despair among those who are not content to "live in infamy"70 and are concerned about the likely consequences of choosing to do so. That is of course a choice, one that is very largely in the hands of the American people.
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Chapter 6 Dilemmas of Dominance
Enthusiasm about the New Europe of the former Soviet empire is not solely based on the fact that its leadership is willing to "salute and shout, 'Yes sir.' " More fundamental reasons were articulated as the European Union considered extension of membership to these countries. The US strongly supported this move. The countries of the East are "Europe's real modernizers," political commentator David Ignatius explained. "They can blow apart the bureaucratism and welfare-state culture that still hobble much of Europe" and "let free markets function the way they should"1—as in the US, where the economy relies heavily on the state sector, and the current incumbents broke postwar records in protectionism during their first tenure in office. Since "the freedom-loving, technology-adapting people of the East are paid a small fraction of what workers in the West earn," Ignatius continues, they can drive all of Europe toward "the realities of modern capitalism": the American model, apparently ideal by definition. The model has per capita growth rates approximately equal to Europe's and unemployment at about the same level, along with the highest rates of inequality and poverty, the highest workloads, and some of the weakest benefits and support systems in the advanced industrial world. The median male wage in 2000 was still below the 1979 level after the late-nineties boomlet, though productivity was 45 percent higher, one sign of the sharp shift toward benefits for capital that is being accelerated more radically under Bush II. The potential contributions of Eastern Europe to undermining quality of life for the majority in the West was recognized immediately after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The business press was exultant about the "green shoots in Communism's ruins," where "rising unemployment and pauperization of large sections of the industrial working class" meant that people were willing "to work longer hours than their pampered colleagues" in the West, at 40 percent of the wages and with few benefits. Further "green shoots" include enough repression to keep working people in line and attractive state subsidies for Western investors. These market reforms would enable Europe to "hammer away at high wages and corporate taxes, short working hours, labor immobility, and luxurious social programs." Europe would be able to follow the American pattern, where the decline of real wages in the Reagan years to the lowest level among the advanced industrial societies (apart from Britain) was "a welcome development of transcendent importance." With Communism's ruins playing something like the role of Mexico, the advantages can now be brought to Western Europe as well, driving it toward the US-British model.2 Communism's ruins have many advantages over the regions that have been under unbroken Western domination for centuries. Those on the eastern side of the 500-year-old fault line dividing East and West (not quite that of the Cold War, but similar) enjoyed much higher standards of health and education after the East exited from its status as the West's original "third world," and they even have the right skin color. With the return of something like traditional relationships, the East can now provide other benefits, including a huge flood of easily exploited labor. The Ukraine is now reported to be replacing Southern Europe as the source of cheap labor in the West, depriving the collapsing Ukrainian economy of its most productive workers. Like their counterparts from Central America, Ukrainian emigrants send back enormous remittances, thus helping to keep what remains of the society alive. Working and living conditions are so awful that death rates are high, and perhaps 100,000 Ukrainian women are held in sexual slavery. Not an unfamiliar story.3
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It is clear enough why the "de facto world government" described in the business press should welcome Eastern Europe's "market reforms," but for US elites they have a further significance. Like independent social and economic development in the third world, Western Europe's social-market system could be a "virus that might infect others," hence a form of "successful defiance" that must be dispatched to oblivion. The European welfare state systems could have a dangerous impact on American public opinion, as revealed by the continued popularity in the US of a universal tax-based health care system, despite constant denigration in the media and the exclusion of the option from the electoral agenda on grounds that it is "politically impossible" no matter what the public may think about it. The "realities of modern capitalism" illustrated in the regions long subject to Western control have been brought to much of Eastern Europe as its economies have been "Latin-Americanized." The reasons are debated, but the essential facts of the social and economic collapse are not. The demographic consequences, while uncertain in scale, provide one index. The UN Development Program estimates ten million excess male deaths during the 1990s, approximately the toll of Stalin's purge sixty years earlier, if these figures are near accurate. "Russia appears to be the first country to experience such a sharp decrease in births versus deaths, for reasons other than war, famine or disease," David Powell writes. The demographic crisis is in part attributed to the crumbling of Russia's health care system under market reforms. The general collapse has been so severe that even the monstrous Stalin is remembered with some appreciation: more than half of Russians "believe Stalin's role in Russian history was positive, while only a third disagreed," polls indicated in early 2003.4 The plans of the US overseers of Iraq seem rather similar to those that were applied in Russia, and that have led to dismal outcomes elsewhere with fair consistency. On European unification, Washington's attitudes have always been complex. Like its predecessors, the Kennedy administration pressed for European unity, but with some concern that Europe might go its own way. The respected senior diplomat David Bruce was a leading advocate for European unification in the Kennedy years, but—typically—saw "dangers" if Europe "struck off on its own, seeking to play a role independent of the United States."5 The guiding principles were well expressed by Henry Kissinger in his "Year of Europe" address in 1973. The world system, he advised, should be based on the recognition that "the United States has global interests and responsibilities" while its allies have only "regional interests." The US must be "concerned more with the overall framework of order than with the management of every regional enterprise."6 Europe must not pursue its own independent course, based on its Franco-German industrial and financial heartland—another reason for concern about "Old Europe," quite apart from the reluctance of its governments to follow Washington's commands with regard to the Iraq war. The principles remain in force despite changing circumstances. Quite apart from their potential contributions to undermining the social-market systems of Western Europe, Eastern European countries are expected to be a "Trojan horse" for US interests, undermining any drift toward an independent role in the world. By 1973, US global dominance had declined from its post-World War II peak. One measure is US control of the world's wealth, which is estimated to have shrunk from roughly 50 percent to half of that as the world economy moved to a "tripolar" order, with three major power centers: North America, Europe, and Japan-based Asia. These structures have since been modified further, particularly with the rise of the East Asian "tigers" and the entry of China into the global system as a major player. The basic concerns about the prospect of an independent Europe extend to Asia as well, in new ways. Long before World War II, the US was by far the greatest economic power in the world but not a Noam Chomsky
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leading actor in global management. The war changed that. Rival powers were either devastated or severely weakened, while the US gained enormously. Industrial production almost quadrupled under the semi-command economy. By 1945 the US had not only overwhelming economic dominance but also a position of incomparable security: it controlled the hemisphere, the surrounding oceans, and most of the territory bordering them. US planners moved quickly to organize the global system, following plans that had already been developed to satisfy the "requirements] of the United States in a world in which it proposed to hold unquestioned power" while limiting the sovereignty of those who might pose a challenge.7 The new global order was to be subordinated to the needs of the US economy and subject to US political control as much as possible. Imperial controls, especially the British, were to be dismantled while Washington extended its own regional systems in Latin America and the Pacific on the principle, explained by Abe Fortas, that "what was good for us was good for the world." This altruistic concern was not appreciated by the British Foreign Office. Officials recognized that Washington, guided by "the economic imperialism of American business interests, [is] attempting to elbow us out," but could do little about it. The minister of state at the Foreign Office commented to his cabinet colleagues that Americans believe "that the United States stands for something in the world—something of which the world has need, something which the world is going to like, something, in the final analysis, which the world is going to take, whether it likes it or not."8 He was articulating the real-world version of Wilsonian idealism, the version that conforms to the historical record. US planning at the time was sophisticated and thorough. The highest priority was to reconstruct the industrial world along lines that would satisfy the requirements of the business interests that dominate policy formation: in particular, to absorb US manufacturing surpluses, overcome the "dollar gap," and offer opportunities for investment. The outcomes were appreciated by the domestic beneficiaries. Reagan's Commerce Department observed that the Marshall Plan "set the stage for large amounts of private U.S. direct investment in Europe," laying the groundwork for multinational corporations (MNCs). Business Week described MNCs in 1975 as "the economic expression" of the "political framework" established by postwar policymakers in which "American business prospered and expanded on overseas orders ... fueled initially by the dollars of the Marshall Plan" and protected from "negative developments" by "the umbrella of American power."9 Other parts of the world were assigned their "functions" by State Department planners. Thus Southeast Asia was to provide resources and raw materials to the former imperial masters, crucially Britain but also Japan, which was to be granted "some sort of empire toward the south," in the phrase of George Kennan, head of the State Department's Policy Planning Staff.10 Some areas were of little interest to the planners, notably Africa, which Kennan advised should be handed over to Europeans to "exploit" for their reconstruction. A different postwar Europe-Africa relationship comes to mind in the light of history but does not seem to have been considered. The Middle East, in contrast, was to be taken over by the United States. In 1945, State Department officials described Saudi Arabian energy resources as "a stupendous source of strategic power, and one of the greatest material prizes in world history"; the Gulf region generally was considered "probably the richest economic prize in the field of foreign investment." Eisenhower later described it as the "most strategically important area of the world." Britain agreed. Its planners described the resources of the region in 1947 as "a vital prize for any power interested in world influence or domination."11 France was expelled from the Middle East by legalistic maneuvers, and Britain declined over time to junior partner.
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Kennan, who was farsighted, recognized that by controlling Japan's supplies of energy, primarily in the Middle East at the time, the US would achieve some "veto power" over Japan's potential military and industrial policy, though Japanese prospects were generally disparaged at the time. The issue has been the source of continued conflict since, with regard to Europe as well, as both Europe and Japan have sought a degree of energy independence. Meanwhile Asia was changing. A prestigious task force, reporting in 2003, described Northeast Asia as "the epicenter of international commerce and technological innovation... . the fastestgrowing economic region in the world for much of the past two decades," by now accounting "for nearly 30 percent of global GDP, far ahead of the United States," and also holding about half of global foreign exchange reserves. These economies also "account for nearly half of global inbound foreign direct investment" and are becoming an increasing source of outbound FDI, flowing within East Asia and to Europe and North America, which now trade more with Northeast Asia than with each other.12 The region is, furthermore, an integrated one. Eastern Russia is rich in natural resources, for which the industrial centers of Northeast Asia are the natural market. Integration would be enhanced by economic unification of the two Koreas with gas pipelines passing through North Korea and extension of the trans-Siberian railroad on the same course. North Korea was the most dangerous and ugly member of the "axis of evil," but lowest on the target list. Like Iran, but unlike Iraq, it failed the first of the criteria for a legitimate target: it was not defenseless. Presumably, the Pentagon is working on ways to knock out the North Korean deterrent, massed artillery aimed at Seoul and US forces, which are being withdrawn out of artillery range, arousing concerns in Korea about US intentions. Considered in isolation, North Korea also fails the second criterion for a target; it is one of the poorest and most miserable countries in the world. But as part of the Northeast Asia complex, it gains importance for the reasons indicated by the task force. Hence it is not an unlikely target of attack, if the technical problem of countering its deterrent can be overcome. The task force recommends that Washington seek a diplomatic solution to the current crisis. It should continue the process, begun haltingly and unevenly under Clinton, aimed at "normalizing United States economic and political relations with North Korea, guaranteeing the security of a nonnuclear North Korea, promoting the reconciliation of North and South Korea, and drawing North Korea into economic engagement with its neighbors." Such interactions could accelerate economic reforms already under way in North Korea, leading in time "to a diffusion of economic power that would loosen totalitarian political controls and moderate human rights abuses." These policies would conform to the regional consensus, including the North Korean dictatorship, it appears. The alternative— confrontation in the manner of Bush-Rumsfeld-Cheney grand strategy—is "the road to perdition," the task force argues. The recommended alternative poses certain problems, however. As the task force describes, Northeast Asia is a rapidly developing and integrated region, which might go off on an independent course, just as continental Europe might. That raises the problem Kissinger outlined. In 1998 the National Bureau of Asian Research warned that "pipelines that promote greater regional integration in Northeast Asia might exclude U.S. involvement except in a marginal way" and could accelerate a process of evolution "into regional blocs."13 These pipelines "could enhance regional stability and provide a cheap alternative to oil imported from the Middle East," Selig Harrison adds, but "the United States seems uneasily wary of pipeline networks in Northeast Asia." The US is aware that the countries of the region "want to reduce what they find to be an increasingly uncomfortable reliance on the US"; or from another point of view, the "veto power" the US exercises by virtue of Noam Chomsky
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its control of Middle East oil and the sea-lanes for tanker traffic. The threat of potential independence may prove an impediment to diplomatic settlement. For partially related reasons, China is regarded as a prime potential enemy by Washington hawks, and much military planning is geared to that contingency. Recent efforts to strengthen India-US strategic relations are partly motivated by the same concerns, along with Washington's concerns about its control over the world's largest energy reserves in the Middle East. Washington's approach to North Korea resembles its stance on Iran and pre-invasion Iraq. In all three cases, neighboring countries had been pursuing efforts to overcome hostility and move toward integration, also attempting to lend support to reformist tendencies, or at least help lay the basis for them, and those efforts continue! with regard to Iran and North Korea. The US somewhat hesitantl followed a similar approach toward North Korea during the Clinton years, with partial success, but apart from that, Washington has preferred confrontation. While the reasons for that preference are not identical in the three cases, there are common threads, which become clearer in the context of the grand strategy. In the early postwar years, US planners sought to fashion East and Southeast Asia into a Japancentered system within the "overall framework of order" maintained by the US. The basic framework was outlined in the San Francisco Peace Treaty (SFPT) of 1951, which formally ended the war in Asia.14 Apart from the three French colonies in Indochina, the only Asian countries that accepted the SFPT were Pakistan and Ceylon, both recently freed from British rule and remote from the Asian war. India refused to attend the San Francisco conference because of the terms of the treaty, among them the US insistence on retaining Okinawa as a military base, as it still does, over strong protests from Okinawans, whose voices barely register in the US. Truman was outraged by India's disobedience. His reaction, no less elegant than the current reaction to the disobedience of Old Europe and Turkey, was that India must have "consulted Uncle Joe and Mousie Dung of China." The white man got a name, not just a vulgar epithet. Partly that may be ordinary racism, or perhaps it is because Truman genuinely liked and admired "Old Joe," who reminded him of the Missouri boss who had launched his political career. In the late 1940s, Truman found Old Joe to be a "decent fellow," though "a prisoner of the Politburo" who "can't do what he wants to." Mousie Dung, however, was a yellow devil. These distinctions extended wartime propaganda. Nazis were evil but merited a certain respect: in the stereotype, at least, they were blond, blue-eyed, orderly, far more appealing than the Frogs, whom Truman particularly disliked, not to speak of the Wops. And they were a wholly different species from the Japs, who were vermin to be crushed, at least once they became enemies; before that, the US was ambivalent about Japanese depredations in Asia, as long as US business interests were protected. The primary victims of Japanese fascism and its predecessors— China and the Japanese colonies of Korea and Formosa (Taiwan)— did not attend the San Francisco Peace Conference and were accorded no serious concern. Koreans and Chinese received no reparations from Japan; nor did the Philippines, which also did not attend the conference. Secretary of State Dulles condemned Filipinos for the "emotional prejudices" that kept them from grasping why they would have no relief for the torture they had endured. Initially, Japan was to pay reparations, but only to the US and other colonial powers, despite the fact that the war was a Japanese war of aggression in Asia through the 1930s and only became a US-led Western war with Japan after Pearl Harbor. Japan was also to reimburse the US for the costs of the occupation. For its Asian victims, Japan was to pay "compensation" in the form of export of Japanese manufacturing products using Southeast Asian resources, a central part of the arrangements that, in effect, reconstructed something like the "New Noam Chomsky
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Order in Asia" that Japan had attempted to construct by conquest, but was now gaining under US domination, so that it was unproblematic. Some Asian victims of Japanese fascism—forced laborers and prisoners of war—brought suit against Japanese corporations with subsidiaries in the US, the legal successors of those responsible for the crimes. On the eve of the fiftieth anniversary of the SFPT, their suit was dismissed by a California judge, on grounds that their claims were barred by the terms of the SFPT. Relying on an amicus brief filed by the State Department in support of the accused Japanese corporations, the court ruled that the SFPT had "served to sustain U.S. security interests in Asia and to support peace and stability in the region." Asia historian John Price described this judgment as "one of the more abysmal moments of denial," pointing out that at least ten million people had been killed in wars in the region while Asia was enjoying "peace and stability." In May 2003, John Ashcroft's Justice Department updated the stand of Clinton's State Department, submitting an amicus brief in support of the energy giant UNOCAL that would "roll back twenty years of judicial rulings for victims of human rights abuse," Human Rights Watch warned. The Justice Department brief goes far beyond defense of the energy corporation against charges of brutal treatment of Burmese workers, slave laborers in effect. It calls for a "radical reinterpretation" of the Alien Tort Claims Act (ATCA), which "permits victims of serious violations of international law abroad to seek civil damages in U.S. courts against their alleged abusers who are found in the United States." The Bush administration is the first to call for reversing court decisions upholding the ATCA. It is "a craven attempt to protect human rights abusers at the expense of victims," HRW executive director Kenneth Roth observes15— particularly when the abusers are energy corporations, a cynic might add. The tripolar order that was taking shape from the early 1970s has since become more firm, and with it, the concern of US planners that not only Europe but also Asia might seek a more independent course. >From a longer historical perspective, that would not be too surprising. In the eighteenth century, China and India were major commercial and industrial centers. East Asia was far ahead of Europe in public health and probably sophistication of market systems. Life expectancy in Japan may have been higher than in Europe. England was trying to catch up in textiles and other manufactures, borrowing from India in ways that are now called piracy and are banned in the international trade agreements imposed by the rich states under a cynical pretense of "free trade"; the US relied heavily on the same mechanisms, as have other states that have developed. As late as the mid-nineteenth century, British observers claimed that Indian iron was as good as or better than British iron, and much cheaper. Colonization and forced liberalization converted India to a British dependency. It only resumed its growth and ended murderous famines after independence. China was not subjugated until the second British opium war 150 years ago, and also only resumed development after independence. Japan was the only part of Asia to resist colonization successfully, and the only one to develop, along with its colonies. It is not, then, a great surprise that Asia is returning to a position of considerable wealth and power after regaining sovereignty. These long-term historical processes, however, extend the problems of sustaining the "overall framework of order" in which others must respect their proper place. The problems are not restricted to "successful defiance" in the third world, a major theme of the Cold War years, but reach the industrial heartlands themselves. Violence is a powerful instrument of control, as history demonstrates. But the dilemmas of dominance are not slight.
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Chapter 7 Cauldron of Animosities
Let us return to Michael Krepon's belief that the final days of 2002 might be "the most dangerous time since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis." His primary concern was the "unstable nuclearproliferation belt stretching from Pyongyang to Baghdad," including "Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and the Indian subcontinent."1 Similar concerns, widely held, were heightened by Bush administration initiatives of 2002-3 that were seriously increasing international tensions and threats. There is a far more fearsome nuclear power nearby, rarely featured in public discussion in the US because it is an appendage of US power. That convention is not observed within the unstable belt itself, or even within the US Strategic Command (STRATCOM), which is responsible for the nuclear arsenal. General Lee Butler, commander in chief of STRATCOM in 1992-94, observed that "it is dangerous in the extreme that in the cauldron of animosities that we call the Middle East, one nation has armed itself, ostensibly, with stockpiles of nuclear weapons, perhaps numbering in the hundreds, and that inspires other nations to do so." Israel's WMD are of concern to the world's second leading nuclear power as well.2 Similar concerns were expressed, more obliquely, in Security Council Resolution 687, which was selectively invoked by the Bush and Blair administrations in their efforts to provide a quasi-legal basis for their invasion of Iraq. Neither that nor any other resolution grants such authorization, but 687 did call for elimination of Iraqi WMD and delivery systems—as a step toward "the goal of establishing in the Middle East a zone free from weapons of mass destruction and all missiles for their delivery" (Article 14). US intelligence and other sources assume that Israel has several hundred nuclear weapons and has been developing chemical and biological weapons. Article 14 is commonly ignored in US commentary, but not elsewhere. Iraq, for example, called on the Security Council to apply Article 14. Its motives do not obviate the importance of the issue. General Butler's concerns are not trivial. Undoubtedly, Israeli military power will continue to "inspire other nations" to develop WMD, including quite possibly even Iraq, if it is granted a modicum of independence. The issue addressed by Article 14 had arisen before, on the eve of the first Gulf war. After invading Kuwait in August 1990, Iraq made a number of proposals for withdrawal within the context of a broader regional settlement. These were leaked to the press by US government officials who found them "serious" and "negotiable." How serious they were we cannot judge: the US "immediately dismissed" them, according to the only journalist in the country who reported the matter carefully, Knut Royce of Newsday. It is of some interest that in the final polls before the bombing, two thirds of the American public favored a conference on the Israel-Arab conflict if it would lead to Iraqi withdrawal.3 Doubtless those figures would have been higher if the public had known that Iraq had just made a similar proposal, dismissed by Washington. A devastating war and even more destructive aftermath might have been prevented, hundreds of thousands of lives saved, and perhaps a basis laid for the overthrow of Saddam's tyranny. It is possible that steps might have been taken toward elimination of WMD and delivery systems in the region and beyond, perhaps even extending to the great powers, for thirty years in violation of their commitment under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to take good-faith steps toward eliminating nuclear weapons, matters of no slight significance.
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Well beyond WMD, Israel's military capacities are regarded in the region as "dangerous in the extreme." Though a very small country, Israel has chosen to become, in effect, an offshore US military and technology base and as such has been able to develop highly advanced military forces. The core of the economy is a military-linked high-tech industrial system, with close ties to the US economy. Not surprisingly, Israel is coming to resemble its patron in other ways as well. A parliamentary (Knesset) investigation found that "Israel is now rated second in the Western world, after the United States, in terms of social gaps in income, property, capital, education and spending, as well as in the extent of poverty." Its formerly quite successful social welfare system has eroded, and social-cultural values have changed significantly as well.4 Like its patron, Israel has military forces that are off the spectrum of societies comparable in other dimensions. The head of research and development for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described its air and armored forces as larger and technologically more advanced than those of any NATO power apart from the US.5 Its conventional military forces are used to attack its neighbors and to control and subjugate the population in the territories it occupies, in ways not easily overlooked in the region or by people elsewhere who are concerned with human rights. Israel also has a close military alliance with the other major regional military power, Turkey. The US-Turkey-Israel alliance is sometimes called "the axis of evil," in the Middle East.6 The term is understandable. There is always plenty of evil to go around, and this axis at least has the merit of existing, unlike the one concocted by George Bush's speechwriters, which consists of two states that had been at war for twenty years and a third that was presumably thrown in because it is nonMuslim and universally reviled. US academic specialist Robert Olson reports that 12 percent of Israel's offensive aircraft are to be "permanently stationed in Turkey" and have been "flying reconnaissance flights along Iran's border," signaling to Iran "that it would soon be challenged elsewhere by Turkey and its Israeli and American allies." He suggests that these operations are part of a long-term effort to undermine and perhaps partition Iran, separating its northern Azeri regions (rather as Russia attempted to do in 1946, one of the early Cold War crises), thus turning the country into "an anemic geopolitical entity," barred from access to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia generally Olson also discusses one of the usual background concerns: to expedite development of oil pipelines from the Caspian region to Turkey and the Mediterranean, cutting out Iran.7 The US-Turkey alliance might undergo some changes if the US is able to shift military bases from Eastern Turkey to Iraq, right in the heart of the world's richest energy reserves. US anger over Turkey's democratic deviation in 2002-3 could weaken US-Turkey military and intergovernmental relations, but that seems doubtful. The existing tripartite alliance extends to parts of Central Asia and recently to India as well. Since its government came under the control of the Hindu right in 1998, India has shifted its international stance considerably, moving toward a closer military relationship with both the US and its Israeli client. Indian political analyst Praful Bidwai writes that the ruling Hindu nationalist "fascination with Zionism is rooted in Islamophobia (and anti-Arabism) and hyper-nationalism. Its ideology is Sharon's machismo and ferocious jingoism. It sees Hindus and Jews (plus Christians) as forming a 'strategic alliance' against Islam and Confucianism." Addressing the American Jewish Committee in Washington, India's national security adviser, Brajesh Mishra, called for development of a USIsrael-India "triad" that will have "the political will and moral authority to take bold decisions" in combating terror. According to Bidwai, "the growing Indo-Israel political-military contacts" are supplemented by coordination of the influential Hindu nationalist and Israeli lobbies in the US.8 India and Israel are both significant military powers, with nuclear weapons and delivery systems, Noam Chomsky
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and the emerging alliance system is another factor contributing to WMD proliferation, terror, and disorder in the unstable belt and beyond. US-Israel Relations: Origins and Maturation It does not take much insight into world affairs to predict that the cauldron of animosities in the Middle East will continue to boil. Internal conflicts have been exacerbated as the industrial world shifted toward an oil-based economy from World War I, and the incomparable petroleum resources of the Middle East were discovered. After World War II, a high priority of US policy was to ensure its control over a region of such great material wealth and strategic significance. In its day in the sun, Britain had controlled the region by delegating authority to clients, with British force in the background. In the terminology of the Foreign Office, local management was to be left to an "Arab facade" of weak compliant rulers, while Britain's "absorption" of these virtual colonies would be "veiled by constitutional fictions," a device considered more cost-effective than direct rule. With variations, the device is familiar elsewhere. The population did not passively submit. Fortunately for imperial planners, air power was becoming available to control civilian populations, though some, like Winston Churchill, were enamored of the possibilities of using poison gas to subdue "recalcitrant Arabs" (mainly Kurds and Afghans). In the interwar years, there were attempts to ban or limit war, but Britain made sure these would not interfere with imperial rule, setting a precedent for its successor in world control. Specifically, Britain undermined attempts to restrict the use of air power against civilians. The reasons were expressed succinctly by the distinguished statesman Lloyd George, who praised the British government for "reserving the right to bomb niggers."9 Fundamental moral principles tend to have a long life. This one is no exception. The US took over the British framework but added another layer of control: peripheral states, preferably non-Arab, that could serve as "local cops on the beat," in the terminology of the Nixon administration. Police headquarters would of course remain in Washington, with a branch office in London. Turkey was a leading member of the club from the outset, joined by Iran in 1953, when a US-UK military coup restored the shah, overthrowing a conservative parliamentary government that was seeking to control its own resources. The US has been concerned more with control than access. After World War II, North America was the world's major oil producer, though this position was not expected to last long. Later, a major exporter to the US was Venezuela. Current projections of US intelligence are that the US will continue to rely primarily on Atlantic Basin resources— those in the Western Hemisphere and West Africa—which are more stable and reliable than those of the Middle East.10 But as throughout the postwar period, that does not remove the perceived need to retain control. Control over the great material prize of the Gulf ensures that US-UK energy corporations will be the main beneficiaries of enormous profits. The wealth recycles to the US and British economies in many other ways as well, including military hardware (hence high-tech industry generally), construction projects, and treasury securities. The recognized "stupendous strategic power" of the region translates into a lever of world domination. All of this was understood clearly by those who planned the postwar world, and retains its force. US intelligence expects Gulf energy resources to become even more significant in the years ahead,11 hence also the drive to maintain control, whether the US itself relies heavily on these resources or not. The global system of military bases from the Pacific to the Azores was designed in considerable Noam Chomsky
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measure for operations in the Gulf region. US counterinsurgency and subversion in Greece and Italy in the 1940s were in part motivated by concern over the free flow of Middle East oil to the West. By now the basing system extends to the former Soviet satellites Bulgaria and Romania. Since the Carter years, the major US intervention forces have been aimed at the Gulf. Until recently, the only fully reliable military base nearby was the British-held island of Diego Garcia, from which the inhabitants were expelled. The US still refuses them the right of return, overruling decisions of the British courts;12 the issue is unknown in the US, much like the case of Okinawa. The Afghan war left the US with military bases in Afghanistan and Central Asia, helping to position US corporations more favorably in the current phase of the "great game" to control Central Asian resources, and also to extend the encirclement of the far more important Persian Gulf. It had long been anticipated that one of Washington's goals in Iraq was to obtain military bases right in the heart of the oil-producing regions, as reported at the war's end.13 Other likely goals also moved into the public domain at the war's end. "The two things that were never openly discussed, that never became part of the national conversation, were oil and money," Bob Herbert commented: "Those crucial topics were left to the major behind-the-scenes operators, many of whom are now cashing in."14 US relations with Israel largely developed within this general context.15 In 1948 the Joint Chiefs of Staff were impressed with Israel's military prowess, describing Israel as second only to Turkey in military power in the region. They suggested that Israel might offer the US means "to gain strategic advantage in the Middle East" to offset Britain's declining role. Ten years later, these considerations gained some concrete significance. The year 1958 was highly significant in world affairs. The Eisenhower administration identified three major crises: Indonesia, North Africa, and the Middle East. All involved oil producers and Islamic political forces, which were then secular. Eisenhower and Secretary of State Dulles stressed that there was no Russian involvement in any of these crises. The problem was the familiar devil: "radical nationalism." In North Africa, the concern was the Algerian struggle for independence, which the US wanted quickly settled. In Indonesia, the culprit was Sukarno, who was one of the leaders of the despised nonaligned movement and was also allowing too much democracy: a popular-based party of poor peasants was gaining influence. In the Middle East, the villain was Nasser, described as a "new Hitler" by panicked US and British leaders. He too was a pillar of the nonaligned movement, and his influence, it was feared, might tempt others to pursue an independent course. Those fears appeared to be realized in 1958 when a coup in Iraq, assumed to be Nasserite in origin, overthrew the British-backed government. Consequences reverberate to the present. The Iraqi coup led to intense US-UK discussions. Policymakers were concerned that Kuwait might seek independence and that even Saudi Arabia might succumb to the disease. The British economy was heavily reliant on profits from Kuwaiti oil production and investment. Britain decided to grant Kuwait nominal independence, though "we must also accept the need, if things go wrong, ruthlessly to intervene, whoever it is has caused the trouble," Foreign Secretary Selwyn Lloyd explained. The US adopted the same stand on forceful intervention with regard to the bigger prizes, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf emirates. Eisenhower sent military forces to Lebanon to block a perceived nationalist threat there and to ensure control over pipelines. He reiterated his concern over the "most strategically important area of the world" and emphasized that loss of control "would be far worse than the loss of China"—regarded as the worst postwar catastrophe—"because of the strategic position and resources of the Middle East."16 Noam Chomsky
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Another country of critical importance that might, it was feared, fall under Nasserite influence was Jordan, then the regional base for British military power. Israel assisted in assuring British control. Washington planners recognized that Israel was the only regional power that had taken risks for the sake of "relieving the situation in the area." A memorandum for the National Security Council advised that "if we choose to combat radical Arab nationalism and to hold Persian Gulf oil by force if necessary, a logical corollary would be to support Israel as the only strong pro-West power left in the Near East,"17 along with the peripheral powers, Turkey and Iran. At the same time, in 1958, Israel-Turkey relations were established with a visit to Turkey by Prime Minister David BenGurion. By 2000, Efraim Inbar writes, Israel's relations to Turkey were "second only to the closeness of Israel-US ties."18 In 1967 the US-Israeli alliance was firmly in place. Israel destroyed Nasser, thus protecting the "facade" in the Arabian peninsula and also striking a powerful blow against the nonaligned movement. That was considered a major contribution to US power. There was also a significant effect within the US ideological domain, an important topic that I will have to put aside.19 Recall the three major crises of 1958. The threat of independent Arab nationalism in the Middle East was overcome by the 1967 war. The North African crisis ended with Algerian independence.20 The crisis in Indonesia was resolved by a huge massacre, mainly of landless peasants, which the CIA described as one of the great mass murders of the twentieth century, comparable to those of Hitler, Stalin, and Mao. This "staggering mass slaughter," as the New York Times called it, was greeted with unrestrained euphoria in the West. It eliminated the mass-based political party of the poor and opened the doors wide to Western investors. As in the Middle East, another pillar of the nonaligned movement was demolished. Somewhat similar processes were under way in Latin America and, to a more limited extent, in India, the last major stronghold of nonalignment. Throughout, the US role was significant, sometimes crucially so. The US is a global power, like England before it. It is often misleading to focus on one region of the world, forgetting that global planning is in Washington. Keeping nevertheless to the Middle East, in 1970 Israel performed another service by deterring possible Syrian intervention to protect Palestinians who were being massacred in Jordan. US aid to Israel quadrupled. US intelligence, along with such influential figures concerned with the Middle East as Senator Henry Jackson, described the tacit alliance of Israel-Iran-Saudi Arabia as a solid basis for US power in the region, with Turkey taken for granted. In 1979 the shah fell and the Israel-Turkey alliance became even more important as a regional base. The alliance welcomed a new member, replacing the shah: Saddam Hussein's Iraq, which the Reagan administration removed from the official list of terrorist states in 1982 so that the US could freely provide the tyrant with aid. Israel's choices over the past thirty years have reduced its options considerably; on its present course, it has virtually no alternative to serving as a US base in the region and complying with US demands. The options were starkly illuminated in 1971, when President Anwar Sadat of Egypt offered Israel a full peace treaty in return for Israeli withdrawal from Egyptian territory. Sadat offered nothing to the Palestinians and omitted reference to the other occupied territories. In his memoirs, Yitzhak Rabin, then ambassador to the US, refers to the "famous" offer as a "milestone" on the path to peace, though it contained "bad news" as well: the condition that Israel withdraw from Egyptian territory, in accord with official US policy and the basic diplomatic document, Security Council Resolution 242 of November 1967. Israel had a fateful choice: it could accept peace and integration into the region or insist on confrontation, hence inevitable dependency on the US. It chose the latter course, not on grounds of Noam Chomsky
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security but because of a commitment to expansion. That is clear in Israeli sources. General Haim Bar-Lev, a leading figure in the governing Labor Party, expressed the common understanding when he wrote in a Labor Party journal that "we can have peace, but I think if we continue to hold out we can obtain more." The "more" that was of primary interest at the time was the northeastern Sinai, from which the inhabitants were brutally expelled into the desert to make way for the establishment of the all-Jewish city of Yamit. In 1972, General Ezer Weizman, later president, added that a political settlement without expansion would mean that Israel could not "exist according to the scale, spirit, and quality she now embodies." The crucial question was how Washington would react. After internal debate, the government abandoned its official policy in favor of Kissinger's principle of "stalemate": no diplomacy, only force. It should be recalled that this was a period of extreme triumphalism, later greatly regretted in Israel. The US and Israel took it for granted after 1967 that Arabs could pose no military threat. The Egyptian peace offer is not "famous" in the US: rather, unknown, a common fate of events that do not conform to doctrinal requirements. Sadat still hoped to gain US acquiescence, by expelling his Russian advisers and other moves. He also warned that "Yamit means war." He was not taken seriously. In 1973 he did launch a war, which was a near disaster for Israel and also led to a nuclear alert in the US. At that point, Kissinger realized that Egypt could not simply be dismissed, and launched his "shuttle diplomacy," which led finally to the Camp David settlement of 1978-79. At Camp David the US and Israel accepted Sadat's 1971 offer, but on terms much less favorable from their point of view: by then the fate of the Palestinians had become an issue, and Sadat joined most of the rest of the world in insisting on their rights. These events are hailed as a US diplomatic triumph. Jimmy Carter won the Nobel Peace Prize primarily for the culminating achievement. The entire process was, in reality, a diplomatic catastrophe. The US-Israel rejection of diplomacy led to a terrible war, great suffering, and a superpower confrontation that could have gotten out of hand. But one of the prerogatives of power is the ability to write history with confidence that there will be little challenge. The disaster therefore enters history as a grand triumph of the US-run "peace process." Israel recognized at once that with the Arab deterrent removed, it could intensify its expansion into the occupied territories and attack its northern neighbor, as it proceeded to do in 1978 and 1982, continuing to occupy parts of Lebanon for almost twenty years. The 1982 invasion and its immediate aftermath left some 20,000 dead; according to Lebanese sources, the toll in the following years was about 25,000. The topic is of little concern in the West, on the principle that crimes for which we are responsible require no inquiry, let alone punishment or reparations. After many bombings and other provocations failed to elicit a pretext for the planned 1982 invasion, Israel finally seized upon the attempted assassination of its ambassador in London by the terrorist group headed by Abu Nidal, who had been condemned to death by the PLO and had been at war with it for years. Resort to this pretext was acceptable to articulate American opinion, which also had no problem with Israel's immediate response: an attack on the Sabra-Shatila Palestinian refugee camps in Beirut, where 200 people were killed, according to a reliable American observer.21 UN attempts to halt the aggression were blocked by immediate US vetoes. So matters continued through eighteen bloody years of Israeli atrocities in Lebanon, rarely with even a thin pretext of self-defense.22 Chief of Staff Rafael ("Raful") Eitan echoed the common understanding in Israel when he at once declared the 1982 invasion to be a success because it weakened the "political status" of the PLO and set back its struggle for a Palestinian state. Leading US intellectuals also welcomed the "political Noam Chomsky
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defeat" of the PLO, clearly recognizing that to be the goal of the war while anointing it a "just war" (Michael Walzer).23 Most public commentary and media, however, preferred tales about unprovoked rocket attacks on innocent Israelis and similar fabrications, though by now the truth is sometimes recognized. New York Times correspondent James Ben-net writes that the goal of the 1982 invasion "was to install a friendly regime and destroy Mr. Arafat's Palestinian Liberation Organization. That, the theory went, would help persuade Palestinians to accept Israeli rule in the West Bank and Gaza Strip."24 To my knowledge, this is the first report in the American mainstream of what was well known in Israel and has been published in marginalized dissident circles in the US for twenty years. It is also a textbook illustration of massive international terrorism, if not the more severe crime of aggression, tracing right back to Washington, which provided the requisite economic, military, and diplomatic support. Without such authorization and aid, Israel can do very little. There are many illusions about this in the Arab countries and elsewhere. Particularly for the victims, it is not wise to live with illusions. On the diplomatic front, by the mid-1970s US-Israeli isolation increased as the Palestinian issue entered the international agenda. In 1976 the US vetoed a resolution calling for a Palestinian state alongside Israel, incorporating the basic wording of UN Resolution 242 from 1967. From then to the present the US has blocked the possibility of a diplomatic settlement in the terms accepted by virtually the entire world: a two-state settlement on the international border, with "minor and mutual adjustments"; that was the principle of official, though not actual, US policy until the Clinton administration formally abandoned the framework of international diplomacy, declaring UN resolutions "obsolete and anachronistic." It is noteworthy that the US stand is also opposed by most of the US population: a large majority support the "Saudi Plan," proposed in early 2002 and accepted by the Arab League, which offered full recognition and integration of Israel into the region in exchange for withdrawal to the 1967 borders, yet another version of the longstanding international consensus that the US has blocked. Large majorities also believe that the US should equalize aid to Israel and the Palestinians under a negotiated settlement, and should cut aid to either party that refuses to negotiate: meaning, at the time of the poll, that it should cut aid to Israel. But few understand what any of this implies, and almost nothing is reported about it.25 After the first Gulf war, Washington felt that it was in a position to impose its own preferred solution. Although never fully elaborated, the 1991 version was to be more forthcoming than the administration position announced in December 1989, which endorsed without qualifications the Israeli coalition government (Shamir-Peres) plan stipulating that there can be no "additional Palestinian state" (Jordan already being "a Palestinian state," in their conception) and that the fate of the territories will be determined "in accordance with the basic guidelines of the [Israeli] government." Washington convened the Madrid conference, with Russian participation to offer a fig leaf of internationalism. But a problem arose at the conference. The Palestinian delegation was headed by Haydar 'Abd alShafi, a conservative nationalist known for his integrity and one of the most respected Palestinian figures. The delegation refused to agree to continued Israeli settlement programs in the occupied territories, thus deadlocking the negotiations, because the US and Israel refused to agree to this condition, even to consider it seriously. Recognizing that his public support was collapsing within the territories and the Palestinian diaspora, Yasir Arafat undercut the Palestinian delegation by secret negotiations with Israel, leading to the "Oslo process," initiated officially with much pomp in September 1993 at the White House. The wording of the Oslo agreements made it clear that they were a mandate for continued Israeli settlement programs, as the Israeli leadership (Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres) took no pains to conceal. For that reason, 'Abd al-Shafi refused to have anything to do with the official peace process.26
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So matters proceeded through the 1990s, as Israeli settlement and integration of the territories proceeded steadily, with full US support. In 2000, the final year of Clinton's term (and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak's), settlement reached its highest peak since 1992, striking further blows at the possibility of a resolution of the conflict by peaceful diplomatic means. Camp David II and Beyond: Toward a "Permanent Neocolonial Dependency" US-Israeli rejectionism runs through the Camp David negotiations of 2000. The conventional image is that Clinton and Barak made a "magnanimous" offer of unparalleled "generosity," but the treacherous Palestinians turned it down, preferring violence. There is a simple way to evaluate these claims: present a map of the territorial settlement proposed. No map has been found in US media or journals, apart from scholarly sources and the dissident literature. A look at the maps reveals that the Clinton-Barak offer virtually divided the West Bank into three cantons, effectively separated from one another by two salients consisting of expansive Jewish settlement and infrastructure developments. The three cantons have only limited access to East Jerusalem—the center of Palestinian commercial, cultural, and political life. And all are separated from Gaza. Admittedly, this would have been an improvement over the status quo, with Palestinians in the West Bank confined to more than 200 cantons, some a few square kilometers, and the situation in the Gaza Strip was in many ways worse. Shortly before joining the Barak government and becoming the chief negotiator at Camp David, Shlomo Ben-Ami, considered a dove in the Israeli spectrum, published an academic study in which he outlined the goal of the Oslo "peace process": to establish a "neocolonial dependency" for the Palestinians, which will be "permanent."27 That is essentially what was offered at Camp David. In Israel, maps did appear in the mainstream press, and the proposals are commonly described as modeled on South Africa's Ban-tustans of forty years ago. Respected commentators report that the South African model was considered very seriously in high military and political echelons in the 1970s and 1980s, and is the model today.28 Israel also considered South Africa a valued ally, as did the US, through the Reagan years. After the failure of Camp David 2000, negotiations continued. They led to high-level (but unofficial) meetings at Taba, Egypt, in January 2001. These appeared to be making considerable progress, though the major territorial problems remained, in less extreme forms. There is a careful record of the Taba negotiations in a report by the European Union observer Miguel Moratinos, approved by both sides.29 The basic differences were narrowed but not entirely bridged. For the West Bank, there was agreement in principle on the long-standing international consensus honoring the internationally recognized border, with "minor and mutual adjustments," now not so minor because of the US-backed Israeli settlement and infrastructure programs that, as noted, rapidly expanded as the Oslo process proceeded on its largely predictable course. Palestinian negotiators at Taba agreed to include within Israel the post-Oslo settlements established around the vastly expanded Jerusalem, but called for a one-to-one territorial swap—with the support of some Israeli hawks, who welcome the opportunity to transfer Israeli Arabs out of the country, thus relieving the much-feared "demographic problem": too many non-Jews in a Jewish state. But the Israeli negotiators insisted on a two-to-one, or larger, swap in their favor, with Palestinians offered a worthless area adjacent to the Sinai Desert. The primary territorial issue remained the status of the Israeli town of Ma'aleh Adumim to the east of Jerusalem, and the infrastructure linking it to the expanded areas to be annexed to Israel, developed mostly in the 1990s with the clear intent of virtually bisecting the West Bank. These issues remained unresolved, along with some others, but there is good reason to accept Akiva Eldar's conclusion that progress was real and promising, even Noam Chomsky
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if not formal. The negotiations were called off by Barak prior to the Israeli elections, and in the face of escalating violence were never resumed, so we cannot know where they might have led. The basic issues were reviewed by Hussein Agha and Robert Malley, two well-informed commentators, in Foreign Affairs.30 They observed, accurately, that "the outlines of a solution have basically been understood for some time now": a territorial divide on the international border, with a one-to-one land swap. They write that "the way to get [to the solution] has eluded all sides from the start," but while accurate, the statement is misleading. The way has been blocked for twentyfive years by the United States, and Israel continues to reject it even at the dovish extreme of the mainstream political spectrum, as the Moratinos report again documents. During the Bush II-Sharon years, the prospects for a diplomatic solution have declined further. Israel has expanded its settlement programs, with continued US backing. The Israeli human rights organization B'Tselem was finally able to obtain official maps indicating Israeli territorial intentions.31 Israeli settlements now control 42 percent of the West Bank. The boundaries of Ma'aleh Adumim, for example, reach from the area of Greater Jerusalem almost to the isolated Palestinian town of Jericho, a salient that largely isolates the southern region of the West Bank. Another salient to the north also remains, partially separating the northern from the central sectors. The result is a harsh version of the three-canton arrangement for the West Bank, all virtually separated from a small part of East Jerusalem, and of course from Gaza, however its fate is determined. The situation in 2003 is described in the primary US scholarly source on the settlements by its editor, Geoffrey Aronson, after a visit to the southern area.32 "In virtually every Israeli settlement, colonization efforts are proceeding apace," leading to "revolutionary changes in patterns of transportation and access" aimed at "consolidating Israel's ability to secure a permanent hold over these lands," integrated within the much-expanded Israel. "In contrast, the dynamic for Palestinians is just the opposite—an ever-increasing network of barricades, obstacles, patrol roads, and prohibitions that isolate them from settlements, from each other, and from places of work, compromising their ability to lead normal lives and impoverishing an entire national community." As for Bush administration plans in mid-2003, there are two sources, rhetoric and action. At the rhetorical level, one reads of Bush's "vision" of a Palestinian state, and the US-inspired "road map." In the real world, the Bush administration repeatedly blocked public release of the road map of the "quartet" (EU, UN, Russia, US), much to the annoyance of the other members. The vision was left vague, and remained so after the road map was finally released, accompanied by Bush's modest announcement that "the road map represents a starting point toward achieving the vision of two states... . that I set out in June 24, 2002"; namely, a pale and indistinct version of the "vision" that had been common coin for over a quarter-century, but blocked by the US.33 The first steps on the road map are explicit: Palestinians must immediately terminate resistance to the occupation, including attacks on Israeli soldiers in the occupied territories, and Israel must declare its commitment to "the two-state vision ... expressed by President Bush," its nature unclear. "As comprehensive security performance moves forward, I.D.F. withdraws progressively from areas occupied since Sept. 28, 2000, and the two sides restore the status quo that existed" at that time. Satisfactory performance will be determined by Israel and Washington. The "status quo" that is to be restored leaves Palestinians confined to hundreds of cantons, surrounded by the settlements and infrastructure constructed by the US-backed Israeli military occupation. The future of these settlements remains unclear. Israel "immediately dismantles settlement outposts erected since March 2001," something on which all but the ultra-right in Israel agree, and at some time left Noam Chomsky
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unspecified Israel "freezes all settlement activity (including natural growth of settlements)." Until that time, the settlements can continue to expand. If the time for "freezing" ever comes, the Bantustan-style arrangements instituted through the 1990s in the context of the US-Israel "peace process," continued under the road map, will presumably be well established. Later still there is to be "implementation of prior agreements, to enhance maximum territorial contiguity [for the Palestinian state], including further action on settlements." The "further action" remains unspecified. There are no prior agreements that yield meaningful "territorial contiguity." The only serious proposals that have been made are not on the agenda. Whatever Bush's "two-state vision" may be, it is apparently not the two-state vision supported by virtually the entire world that the US has blocked since the mid-1970s, nor the Saudi plan ratified by the Arab League and supported by a majority of the American population, nor the solution whose outlines "have basically been understood for some time now" described by Agha and Malley. There is no hint of any of these ideas.34 Furthermore, although there is immediate (and violent) enforcement of the road map's conditions on the Palestinians, there is no enforcement of conditions on the US-funded Israeli settlement and development programs. There is a rich record about all of this, and no reason to expect any significant change. Though the political road map remains vague with regard to Israel's responsibilities, other demands are quite specific. The huge US subsidy to Israel is, for the first time, conditioned on Israel's performance: not on its implementation of the terms of the road map but on an economic plan that "will slash public sector jobs and wages and lower taxes," measures that have been "dubbed an 'economic road map.' " The plan is described by Israel's leading newspaper as a "new theory, ... according to which the US openly intervenes in forcing a neo-liberal order in Israel"—a theory that is welcome to the Israeli business sector but led immediately to a strike of 700,000 workers.35 Also quite specific are operations to create "facts on the ground" while talk proceeds, in the traditional manner. Notable among them is the construction of the "separation wall" that incorporates parts of the West Bank within Israel. The justification offered for the barrier is security: for Israelis, not Palestinians, whose security problems are far more grave. A barrier with a land swap would provide no less security. The most security would be given "by a wall a few miles inside Israel, to allow the IDF to patrol fully on both sides. But such proposals would not incorporate Palestinian land within Israel, and would disrupt the lives of Israelis rather than Palestinians, and are therefore unthinkable. World Bank-sponsored reports conclude that the wall will leave almost 100,000 Palestinians on the Israeli side, along with "some of the richest agricultural land in the West Bank." The wall also places a good part of the vitally important West Bank aquifer under Israeli control. One West Bank town, Qalqiiya, is already virtually surrounded by the wall, cut off from its lands, 30 percent of its water supplies, and whatever territories will be assigned someday to the "viable" Palestinian state with "territorial contiguity." More than half of Qalqilya's agricultural lands were reported to have been confiscated, to be annexed to Israel, with the munificent offer of onetime compensation equal to the market price of one year's harvest.36 Immediately after Colin Powell went to Israel to meet with Prime Minister Sharon and discuss the road map, Sharon informed the press that as the wall proceeded south of Qalqiiya, it would sweep well to the east to enclose the Israeli settlements of Ariel and Emmanuel, thereby partially separating the northern Palestinian enclave from the central one by a salient of Israeli settlements and infrastructure, as in the Clinton-Barak Camp David plan. There can be little doubt that the second and more important of the Clinton-Barak extensions of Israeli territory, dividing the central enclave from the southern one, will also be incorporated, de facto, within Israel, in some manner. Noam Chomsky
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There is also little reason to doubt that Israeli communities that remain outside the wall will retain their current status as, effectively, parts of Israel, linked to it by large-scale infrastructure, protected by the IDF, and free to expand within their allotted territory until some order to the contrary comes from above. The very well-informed Harvard University scholar Sara Roy, relying on internal sources, writes that the World Bank "estimates that some 232,000 people living in 72 communities will be affected" by the first, northern phase of the wall's construction, "with 140,000 living on the eastern side of the wall but, in effect, encircled within its winding path"; and that completion "could isolate as many as 250,000-300,000 Palestinians while annexing "as much as 10% of the West Bank to Israel." She suggests further that "the wall's design [may be] aimed at carving out and encircling the 42% (or less) of the West Bank that Sharon has said he is prepared to cede to a Palestinian state." If so, Sharon may have in mind something like the plan he proposed in 1992, now recognizing that the political spectrum has shifted so far toward the extremist-nationalist pole that what seemed audacious then may be portrayed as a dramatic concession today.37 "The facts on the ground," Israeli journalist Amira Hass comments, "are determining—and will continue to determine—the area where the road map will be applied, the area where the entity known as the 'Palestinian state' will be established": A visit to the [places] where the Public Works Commission, the Defense Ministry, Housing Ministry and the IDF bulldozers are busy at work, makes it possible to see why it's easy for Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to talk about a "Palestinian state." ... The massive construction in Jerusalem and its environs, from Bethlehem to Ramallah, and the Dead Sea to Modi'in, has already ruled out any Palestinian urban, industrial or cultural development worthy of the name in the area of East Jerusalem. The southern enclave of the West Bank, from Hebron to Bethlehem, will be cut off from the central enclave of the Ramallah area by an ocean of manicured Israeli settlements, tunnel roads and highways. The northern enclave, from Jenin to Nablus, will be cut off from the center by the massive settlement bloc of Ariel-Eli-Shiloh.38 As for the "settlement freeze," when Sharon persuaded his extremist cabinet to accept the road map he explained that "there is no restriction here, and you can build for your children and grandchildren, and I hope for your great-grandchildren as well."39 At the rhetorical level, the road map appears to offer more to the Palestinians than the Oslo process: it uses such terms as "Palestinian state," "end to the occupation," "freeze on all settlement activity," etc., all phrases missing from the Oslo protocols. But the appearance is deceptive. Apart from extremist elements, Israel and its sponsor have no intention of taking over territories beyond useful and desirable limits or of having Israel administer the bulk of the Palestinian population. Construction of "facts on the ground" has proceeded sufficiently to allow the free use of terms that might previously have impeded plans that ha been implemented for the past decade and are now being established more firmly. Apart from the rhetoric about "visions," there is a more significant source of information: actions. Keeping just to a few illustrations, in December 2000 the Bush administration caused some consternation abroad when it vetoed a Security Council resolution, advanced by the European Union, calling for implementation of Washington's Mitchell Plan and efforts to reduce violence by the dispatch of international monitors, to which Israel strongly objects: their presence is likely to reduce Palestinian violence but would also impede Israeli repression and terror. Ten days before the veto, Washington boycotted a conference in Geneva of the High Contracting Noam Chomsky
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Parties of the Geneva Conventions called to review the situation in the occupied territories. The boycott yielded the usual "double veto": the decisions are blocked, and the events are barely reported and erased from history. The conference reaffirmed the applicability of the Fourth Geneva Convention to the occupied territories, so that many US-Israeli actions there are war crimes under US law. The conference again condemned US-funded Israeli settlements and the practice of "wilful killing, torture, unlawful deportation, wilful depriving of the rights of fair and regular trial, extensive destruction and appropriation of property ... carried out unlawfully and wantonly."40 The Fourth Geneva Convention, instituted to criminalize formally the crimes of the Nazis in occupied Europe, is a core principle of international humanitarian law. Its applicability to the Israeli-occupied territories has repeatedly been affirmed, among other occasions, by UN ambassador George Bush (September 1971) and by Security Council resolutions. These include Resolution 465 (1980), adopted unanimously, which condemned US-backed Israeli practices as "flagrant violations" of the convention, and Resolution 1322 (October 2000), 14-0 (US abstaining), which called on Israel "to abide scrupulously by its responsibilities under the Fourth Geneva Convention." As High Contracting Parties, the US and the European powers are obligated by solemn treaty to apprehend and prosecute those responsible for such crimes, including their own leadership. By continuing to reject that duty, they are "enhancing terror"—to borrow Bush IPs words condemning Palestinians. The US stance has shifted over the years from endorsement of the applicability of the conventions to the occupied territories, to abstention during the Clinton years, and finally to undermining them under Bush II. The Bush administration signaled its tacit endorsement of violent repression in the occupied territories in other ways as well. Thus, while Ariel Sharon was conducting his brutal offensive in the West Bank in April 2002, Colin Powell was sent to "bring peace." He meandered through the Mediterranean, arriving in Israel just as the defenders of Jenin were running out of food and ammunition; one may presume that State Department intelligence was able to work out that calculation. A Pentagon official stated the obvious: "Powell's itinerary, he said, was designed 'to give Sharon some more time.' " A State Department official added that "the Israelis are not listening so much to what we say, but are watching what we do... . And what we're doing is giving them more time to withdraw"41— when they finished their work: leveling the refugee camp at Jenin, smashing much of the old city of Nablus, and destroying the institutional and cultural infrastructure of Palestinian life in Ramallah with the viciousness that has been IDF practice for many years. In December 2002, the UN General Assembly reiterated the near-universal opposition to Israel's effective annexation of Jerusalem, in defiance of Security Council resolutions going back to 1968 (passed with US support). For the first time, the US voted against the resolution, formally reversing the long-standing official US position on the status of Jerusalem. The US was joined by Israel, several Pacific island dependencies, and Costa Rica. If intended seriously, this reversal virtually eliminates the possibility of a political settlement. The Bush administration also continued to sustain violence by voting against a resolution calling for international efforts "to halt the deteriorating situation between Israel and the Palestinians, reverse all measures taken on the ground since the latest violence began in September 2000, and push for a peace agreement" (passed 160-4, the US joined by Israel, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands). Following the conventional pattern, none of this seems to have been reported in the US.42
Bush also declared the archterrorist Sharon a "man of peace" and demanded that Arafat be replaced by a prime minister who will meet US-Israeli demands, though "unlike Mr. Arafat [he] does not have a popular following."43 All of this provides further illustration of the president's "vision of Noam Chomsky
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democracy." In February 2003, Bush delivered what the New York Times called "his first significant remarks about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in eight months," in a speech to the far-right American Enterprise Institute. The speech was mostly vacuous, but it did indeed contain one significant remark. Bush declared obliquely that Israel could continue its programs of settlement and development in the occupied territories. The form of his endorsement was the statement that "as progress is made toward peace, settlement activity in the occupied territories must end," implying that it can continue until the US determines (unilaterally, as always) that progress has been made.44 Again, Bush's sole "significant remark" reverses official government policy. Previously the settlement programs had been considered illegal, or at least "unhelpful." Now they are implicitly authorized. In defense of the administration, one may argue that official doctrine has been brought into conformity with near-invariant practice. Prevailing values are often expressed implicitly, as on the first anniversary of 9-11, when the president took the occasion to provide $200 million in supplemental funding for the rich country of Israel while rejecting $130 million for emergency supplemental aid to Afghanistan.45 And not only in the US. Thus former UK foreign secretary Douglas (Lord) Hurd wrote that "two unsolved problems torment the Middle East: the danger from Saddam Hussein and the insecurity of Israel."46 The insecurity of Palestinians in the thirty-sixth year of military occupation is not an "unsolved problem"; in fact, it remains unmentioned. The steps that undermine the prospects for a peaceful diplomatic settlement are continually justified as a response to Palestinian terror, which did indeed escalate, including terrible crimes against Israeli civilians during the al-Aqsa Intifada that broke out at the end of September 2000. The Intifada also brought into the open significant changes that had been taking place within Israel. The authority of the Israeli military by then reached such levels that military correspondent Ben Kaspit described the country as "not a state with an army, but an army with a state."47 Kaspit's analysis is basically confirmed, and deepened historically, by another prominent military correspondent, Reuven Pedatzur, reviewing Israel's "culture of power" and "consistent choice of the military option" over peaceful means, since its founding. In his discussion of a book by military historian Motti Golani, Pedatzur writes that Golani is, "of course, correct" in his "bald denial of the sacrosanct Israeli ethos according to which Israel has always aspired to peace, whereas its neighbors have consistently refused to tread the path of peace, choosing the path of war instead." The facts are sharply different, both agree. One prime reason is "the institution-alization of power and its total transfer to the responsibility of the political and military establishments." The military command intervenes in "political-diplomatic debate," sometimes by threat of force, effectively formulating policy to an extent unknown in any other democratic society. Guided by this "military culture," "Israel's political-military leadership uses fear-mongering tactics in security issues, ... generating] anxiety in order to mobilize Israeli society and to deflect the public's gaze from domestic problems, such as a deteriorating economic situation or a growing unemployment rate." The "formula"— familiar enough elsewhere, including the US—was established by Israel's founding father David Ben-Gurion in the earliest days of the state, and "fear-mongering ... would be used in the following decades," to the present. Author and reviewer join other Israeli commentators in warning of the "serious danger" of the "formation of a consensus ... according to which, in Israel's situation, democratic considerations are a luxury," with "signs of fascism."48 Kaspit's observations were motivated by the utter contempt shown by the military command for the orders of the civilian government in the early months of the Intifada, a stance that is particularly noteworthy since the prime minister was a former chief of staff and other civilian officials were also Noam Chomsky
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from the upper military echelons. Like other powerful military forces facing largely defenseless opponents, the IDF instantly resorted to extreme violence. When the head of military intelligence requested an inquiry into "how many bullets the IDF fired from the start of the hostilities," he and other generals were shocked to learn that in the first few days of the Intifada the IDF fired a million bullets and other projectiles—"a bullet for each child," one officer of the high command commented with disgust. Military sources confirmed a report that in one incident, a single shot, fired in the air to illustrate the reality to a European observer, evoked two solid hours of intense fire from Israeli troops and tanks. According to IDF accounting, the ratio of Palestinian to Israeli dead was almost twenty to one in the first month of the Intifada (seventy-five Palestinians, four Israelis), in areas under military occupation, with resistance scarcely going beyond stone throwing. The army's force of huge, USprovided bulldozers was also called into action to destroy dwellings, fields, olive groves, and forests with utter abandon, following policies that have made Israel "synonymous with bulldozer," one correspondent wrote with dismay, reversing founding ideals about "making the desert bloom."49 From the outset Israel used US military helicopters to attack civilian targets, killing and wounding dozens of people. Clinton responded instantly with the largest deal in a decade for military helicopters; there were no constraints on use, the Pentagon informed journalists. The facts, well known at once, were unreported in the US. Israel was breaking no new ground. US forces in the Gulf War in 1991 enjoyed such overwhelming military superiority that troops could enter Iraq behind plows mounted on tanks and earthmovers, which bulldozed live Iraqi soldiers into trenches in the desert, an "unprecedented tactic," Patrick Sloyan reported. "Not a single American was killed during the attack that made an Iraqi body count impossible." The victims were mostly Shi'ite and Kurdish peasant conscripts, it appears, hapless victims of Saddam Hussein hiding in holes in the sand or fleeing for their lives. The report elicited little interest or comment.50 Such slaughters are not only routine when there is an overwhelming disparity of force, but are often lauded by the perpetrators. To select an illustration concerning the non-Muslim member of the "axis of evil," it is unlikely that North Koreans have forgotten the "object lesson in air power to all the Communists in the world and especially to the Communists in North Korea" that was delivered in May 1953, a month before the armistice, and reported enthusiastically in a US Air Force study. There were no targets left in the flattened country, so US bombers were dispatched to destroy irrigation dams "furnishing 75 percent of the controlled rice supply for North Korea's rice production." "The Westerner can little conceive the awesome meaning which the loss of this staple commodity has for the Asian—starvation and slow death," the official account continues, recounting the kinds of crimes that led to death sentences at Nuremberg.51 One may wonder whether such memories are in the background as the desperate North Korean leadership plays "nuclear chicken." It is important to be aware of how routine these practices are, hence how likely they are to recur unless inhibited from within the powerful states. We can observe with horror the ruins of Grozny; and if historical memory is allowed, can recall the devastation left by US saturation bombing in Indochina. Revenge knows few limits when the privileged and powerful are subjected to the kind of terror they regularly mete out to their victims. To take an example from earlier years, when British citizens were murdered in the course of a rebellion in occupied India 150 years ago (the "Indian mutiny," in imperial parlance), Britain's reaction was ferocious. It was "a ghastly and horrible picture showing man at his worst," Nehru wrote from his prison cell during World War II, citing British and Indian sources (the latter banned under the Raj). A current scholarly history records the Noam Chomsky
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"common practice" of "wanton attacks on passive villagers and unarmed Indians, even faithful domestic servants," brutal murder of captured "mutineers," "entire villages put to the torch for the 'crime' of proximity" to the site of real or alleged Indian atrocities, as a "terrible racial ferocity ... erupted and inspired British vengeance." Another describes how "tens of thousands of soldiers and village guerrillas were hanged, shot, or blown from guns," leading to a significant drop in population in several regions. The tone is illustrated by the advice in May 1857 by John Nicholson —"the hero of Delhi," an "upright man," and "professed Christian," according to his contemporary admirers: "Let us propose a bill for the flaying alive, impalement or burning of the murderers of the women and children at Delhi. The idea of simply hanging the perpetrators of such atrocities is maddening." The atrocities to which he referred included those revealed in "detailed but imaginary accounts" of other righteous Christians, who carried out unspeakable atrocities in revenge.52 To illustrate the impact of the sobering lessons of World War II, in Kenya in the 1950s some 150,000 people died in the course of Britain's repression of a colonial revolt, a campaign conducted with hideous terror and atrocities but, as always, guided by the highest ideals. The British governor had explained to the people of Kenya in 1946 that Britain controls their land and resources "as of right, the product of historical events which reflect the greatest glory of our fathers and grandfathers." If "the greater part of the wealth of the country is at present in our hands," that is because "this land we have made is our land by right—by right of achievement," and Africans will simply have to learn to live in "a world which we have made, under the humanitarian impulses of the late nineteenth and the twentieth century."53 History is replete with precedents for what we see before our eyes, day after day, though the stakes grow more awesome along with the means of destruction available. Israeli commanders rely not only on the standard military doctrine of those who have overwhelming force at their command but also on their own experience. When they ordered massive violence to "crush" Palestinians with cruel "collective punishment" in October 2000, they probably did not anticipate that the tactics would arouse the victims to "bloody revenge."54 That did not happen when Prime Minister Rabin sent his troops to crush the population of the territories by breaking bones, beatings, torture, and humiliation during the first Intifada a decade earlier. Then the tactics largely worked, as they had in the past.55 In December 1982, after an outburst of settler and IDF terror and atrocities in the territories that shocked even Israeli hawks, a prominent Israeli academic specialist on military affairs warned of the dangers to Israeli society when three-quarters of a million young people who have served in the IDF "know that the task of the army is not only to defend the state in the battlefield against a foreign army, but to demolish the rights of innocent people just because they are Araboushim living in territories that God promised to us." The essential principle had been formulated in the early years of the occupation by Moshe Dayan: Israel should tell the Palestinians in the territories that "we have no solution, you shall continue to live like dogs, and whoever wishes may leave, and we will see where this process leads."56 But the Palestinians remained "samidin," who endured but scarcely retaliated. The second Intifada was different. This time the orders to crush Palestinians relentlessly and teach them "not to raise their heads" escalated the cycle of violence, spilling into Israel itself, which had lost the substantial immunity to retaliation from within the territories that had prevailed for more than three decades of military occupation. Echoing the concerns of twenty years earlier, an editorial in Israel's leading daily concluded that: Two-and-a-half years of intense fighting against Palestinian terrorism have turned the Israel Defense Forces into an obdurate and callous army, focused on its mission out of Noam Chomsky
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an indifference to the consequences of its actions. The IDF, which brought up generations of soldiers on the myth of purity of arms and educated its commanders with the idea of the moral, deliberating soldier, who takes tough decisions, while thinking of humane considerations, is turning into a killing machine whose efficiency is aweinspiring, yet shocking.57 As the official ratio of Palestinians to Israelis killed moved from twenty-to-one to close to three-toone, attitudes in the US changed from inattention to atrocities or support for them to extreme outrage: at the atrocities directed at innocent US clients. These were indeed outrageous. The selective vision, however, speaks for itself, not least because of its deep roots in the culture and history of conquerors.
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Chapter 8 Terrorism and Justice: Some Useful Truisms
On a highly controversial topic like the one we turn to now, perhaps it is a good idea to begin with a few simple truths. The first is that actions are evaluated in terms of the range of likely consequences. A second is the principle of universality; we apply to ourselves the same standards we apply to others, if not more stringent ones. Apart from being the merest truisms, these principles are also the foundation of just war theory, at least any version of it that deserves to be taken seriously. The truisms raise an empirical question: Are they accepted? Investigation will reveal, I believe, that they are rejected almost without exception. The first truism may merit a word of elaboration. The actual consequences of an action may be highly significant, but they do not bear on the moral evaluation of the action. No one celebrates Khrushchev's success in placing nuclear missiles in Cuba because it did not lead to nuclear war, or condemns the fear-mongers who warned of the threat. Nor do we applaud North Korea's Dear Leader for developing nuclear weapons and providing missile technology to Pakistan, or denounce those who warn of possible consequences because they haven't taken place. An apologist for state violence who took such positions would be regarded as a moral monster or lunatic. That's obvious, until it comes time to apply the same criteria to ourselves. Then the stance of the lunatic and moral monster is taken to be highly honorable, indeed obligatory, and adherence to the truisms is condemned with horror. Let us, nevertheless, accept the truisms for what they are: truisms. And then think about a few crucial current cases to which they apply. Truisms and Terror Take 9-11. It is widely argued that the terrorist attacks changed everything dramatically as the world entered a new and frightening "age of terror"—the title of a collection of academic essays by Yale University scholars and others.1 It is also widely held that the term terror is very hard to define. We might ask why the concept of terror should be considered particularly obscure. There are official US government definitions that fall well within the range of clarity of other usages that are regarded as unproblematic. A US Army manual defined terrorism, as "the calculated use of violence or threat of violence to attain goals that are political, religious, or ideological in nature ... through intimidation, coercion, or instilling fear." The official US Code gave a more elaborate definition, essentially along the same lines. The British government's definition is similar: "Terrorism is the use, or threat, of action which is violent, damaging or disrupting, and is intended to influence the government or intimidate the public and is for the purpose of advancing a political, religious, or ideological cause."2 These definitions seem fairly clear. They are close enough to ordinary usage, and are considered appropriate when discussing the terrorism of enemies. The official US definitions are the ones I have been using in writing about the topic since the Reagan administration came into office in 1981, declaring that a war on terror would be a centerpiece of its foreign policy. The reliance on these definitions is particularly appropriate for our Noam Chomsky
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purposes because they were formulated when the first war on terror was declared. But almost no one uses them, and they have been rescinded, replaced by nothing sensible. The reasons do not seem obscure: the official definitions of terrorism are virtually the same as the definitions of counterterror (sometimes called "low-intensity conflict," or "counterinsurgency"). But counterterror is official US policy, and it plainly will not do to say that the US is officially committed to terrorism.3 The US is by no means alone in this practice. It is traditional for states to call their own terrorism "counterterror," even the worst mass murderers: the Nazis, for example. In occupied Europe they claimed to be defending the population and legitimate governments from the partisans, terrorists supported from abroad. That was not entirely false; even the most egregious propaganda rarely is. The partisans were undoubtedly directed from London, and they did engage in terror. The US military had some appreciation of the Nazi perspective: its counterinsurgency doctrine was modeled on Nazi manuals, which were analyzed sympathetically, with the assistance of Wehrmacht officers.4 It is this common practice that allows for the conventional thesis that terror is a weapon of the weak. That is true, by definition, if terror is restricted to their terrorism. If the doctrinal requirement is lifted, however, we find that, like most weapons, terror is primarily a weapon of the powerful. Another problem with the official definitions of terror is that it follows from them that the US is a leading terrorist state. That much is hardly controversial, at least among those who believe that we should pay some attention to such institutions as the International Court of Justice or the UN Security Council, or mainstream scholarship, as the examples of Nicaragua and Cuba unequivocally reveal. But that conclusion won't do either. So we are left with no sensible definition of terrorism— unless we decide to break ranks and use the official definitions that have been abandoned because of their unacceptable consequences. The official definitions do not answer every question precisely. They do not, for example, draw a sharp boundary between international terrorism and aggression, or between terror and resistance. These issues have arisen in interesting ways, which have direct bearing on the redeclared war on terror and on today's headlines. Take the distinction between terror and resistance. One question that arises is the legitimacy of actions to realize "the right to self-determination, freedom, and independence, as derived from the Charter of the United Nations, of people forcibly deprived of that right ... particularly peoples under colonial and racist regimes and foreign occupation." Do such actions fall under terror or resistance} The quoted words are from the most forceful denunciation of the crime of terrorism by the UN General Assembly, which stated further that "nothing in the present resolution could in any way prejudice the right" so defined. The resolution was adopted in December 1987, just as officially recognized international terrorism reached its peak. It is obviously important. The vote was 153 to 2 (with a single abstention, Honduras), hence even more important.5 The two countries that voted against the resolution were the usual ones. Their reason, they explained at the UN session, was the paragraph just quoted. The phrase "colonial and racist regimes" was understood to refer to their ally, apartheid South Africa. Evidently the US and Israel could not condone resistance to the apartheid regime, particularly when it was led by Mandela's African National Congress, one of the world's "more notorious terrorist groups," as Washington determined at the time. The other phrase, "foreign occupation," was understood to refer to Israel's military occupation, then in its twentieth year. Evidently, resistance could not be condoned in that case either. Noam Chomsky
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The US and Israel were alone in the world in denying that such actions can be legitimate resistance, and declaring them to be terrorism. The US-Israeli stand extends beyond the occupied territories. Thus the US and Israel regard Hezbollah, for example, as one of the leading terrorist organizations in the world, not because of its terrorist acts (which are real) but because it was formed to resist the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, and succeeded in driving out the invaders after two decades of defiance of Security Council orders to withdraw. The US even goes so far as to call people "terrorists" if they resist direct US aggression: the South Vietnamese, for example; or recently, the Iraqis.6 The public knows nothing about the major UN condemnation of what Reagan called the "evil scourge of terrorism" and its fate, by virtue of the usual double veto. To learn about such matters one has to wander into forbidden territory: the historical and documentary record, or marginalized critical literature. Despite the unclarities, and the sharp divide between the US-Israel and the world, the official US definitions of terror seem fairly adequate to the purposes at hand. Let us turn to the belief that 9-11 signaled a sharp change in the course of history. That seems questionable. Nonetheless, something dramatically new and different did happen on that terrible day. The target was not Cuba, or Nicaragua, or Lebanon, or Chechnya, or one of the other traditional victims of international terrorism, but a state with enormous power to shape the future. For the first time, an attack on the rich and powerful countries succeeded on a scale that is, regrettably, not unfamiliar in their traditional domains. Alongside horror at the crime against humanity and sympathy for the victims, commentators outside the ranks of Western privilege often responded to the 9-11 atrocities with a "welcome to the club," particularly in Latin America, where it is not so easy to forget the plague of violence and repression that swept through the region from the early 1960s, or its roots. The plague can in part be traced to a decision by the Kennedy administration in 1962 to change the mission of the Latin American military, effectively, from "hemispheric defense" to "internal security." The effect was a shift from toleration "of the rapacity and cruelty of the Latin American military" to "direct complicity" in their crimes, to support for "the methods of Heinrich Himm-ler's extermination squads," in the words of Charles Maechling, who led US counterinsurgency and internal defense planning from 1961 to 1966.7 The perception of the victims is similar. To take one case of unusual current significance, the highly respected president of the Colombian Permanent Committee for Human Rights, Alfredo Vasquez Carrizosa, writes that the Kennedy administration "took great pains to transform our regular armies into counterinsurgency brigades, accepting the new strategy of the death squads," ushering in "what is known in Latin America as the National Security Doctrine ... not defense against an external enemy, but a way to make the military establishment the masters of the game [with] the right to combat the internal enemy ... : it is the right to fight and to exterminate social workers, trade unionists, men and women who are not supportive of the establishment, and who are assumed to be communist extremists. And this could mean anyone, including human rights activists such as myself."8 The "great pains" to which he refers coincided with the fateful 1962 decision. In that year, Kennedy sent a Special Forces mission to Colombia, led by General William Yarborough. Yarborough advised "paramilitary, sabotage and/or terrorist activities against known communist proponents," to be "employed now ... [i]f we have such an apparatus" in place—"we" because there is no need to prevaricate in secret communications.9 In counterinsurgency doctrine, the phrase "known communist proponents" extends to the categories of "assumed communist extremists" that Vasquez Carri-zosa enumerates, a fact well known to Latin Americans, just as they know that the primary Noam Chomsky
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victims are the poor and oppressed who are daring to raise their heads. The National Security Doctrine reached Central America in the 1980s. El Salvador became the leading recipient of US military aid as state terror reached its awful peak. When Congress hampered direct military aid and training by imposing human rights conditions, as in Guatemala after massive government atrocities, surrogates undertook the task. The victims do not easily forget, though among the powerful, these crimes are subject to the standard "ritual avoidance" of unacceptable facts. Hardly a day passes without examples. Thus, a front-page story in the national press warns that the threat of Al Qaeda is increasing, as it is turning from targets that are "well protected ... to so-called soft targets."10 The story should at once recall Washington's official instructions to its proxy forces to attack "soft targets" in Nicaragua immediately after it was ordered by the highest international authorities to terminate its terrorist war, and the reaction to these orders. Whether attacking "soft targets" is right or wrong, terrorism or a noble cause, depends on who is the agent. The practice is routine, and unproblematic once moral truisms have been deemed irrelevant and unwanted facts efficiently "disappeared." The Art of "Disappearing" Unwanted Facts One contributor to the Yale volume (Charles Hill) observed that 9-11 opened the second "war on terror," the first having been declared by the Reagan administration twenty years earlier, a rare recognition of reality. And "we won" the first war, Hill reports triumphantly, though the terrorist monster was only wounded, not slain.11 How "we won" is someone else's department: the Jesuit intellectuals in Central America, the School of the Americas, truth commissions, serious scholarship, activist and solidarity literature, and the memories of the survivors. We can learn a good deal about the current war on terror by inquiring into the first phase, and how it is now portrayed. One leading academic specialist describes the 1980s as the decade of "state terrorism," of "persistent state involvement, or 'sponsorship,' of terrorism, especially by Libya and Iran." The US merely responded with "a 'proactive' stance toward terrorism." Others recommend the methods by which "we won": the operations for which the US was condemned by the World Court and Security Council (absent the veto) are a model for "Nicaragua-like support for the Taliban's adversaries." A prominent historian of the subject, David Rapoport, finds deep roots for the terrorism of Osama bin Laden: in South Vietnam, where "the effectiveness of Vietcong terror against the American Goliath armed with modern technology kindled hopes that the Western heartland was vulnerable too."12 The villainy of the terrorists attacking us everywhere is awesome indeed. Keeping to convention, these analyses portray the US as a benign victim, defending itself from the terror of others: the Vietnamese (in South Vietnam), the Nicaraguans (in Nicaragua), Libyans and Iranians (if they ever suffered a slight at US hands, it passes unnoticed), and other anti-American forces worldwide. If not everyone in the world shares that perception of history, then they too are "anti-American" and can be safely dismissed. As discussed earlier, the plague of US-backed state terror that spread through Latin America in the 1960s peaked in Central America in the 1980s, as Reagan's "war on terror" took its deadly toll. Central America was one prime focus of that onslaught. The other was the Mideast/Mediterranean region. Here, too, the contrast between what actually happened and what is portrayed is dramatic and revealing. In this region, the worst single atrocity during the 1980s was the Israeli invasion of Noam Chomsky
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Lebanon in 1982, which, like the murderous and destructive Rabin-Peres invasions of 1993 and 1996, had little pretense of self-defense. In the light of crucial Reagan-Clinton support, these operations add to Washington's record of state-supported international terrorism. The US was directly involved in many other acts of terror in the region, including the three candidates for the prize of most extreme terrorist atrocity of 1985, when terrorism in that region was selected by editors as the lead story of the year: (1) the car bomb outside a mosque in Beirut that killed 80 people (mostly women and girls) and wounded 250 others, timed to explode as people were leaving and traced back to the CIA and British intelligence; (2) Shimon Peres's bombing of Tunis, killing 75 people, Palestinians and Tunisians, expedited by the US and praised by Secretary of State Shultz, then unanimously condemned by the UN Security Council as an "act of armed aggression" (US abstaining); and (3) Peres's "Iron Fist" operations directed against what the Israeli high command called "terrorist villagers" in occupied Lebanon, reaching new depths of "calculated brutality and arbitrary murder" in the words of a Western diplomat familiar with the area, amply supported by direct coverage, total casualties unknown in accord with the usual conventions. All these atrocities fall within the category of state-supported in-ternational terrorism, if not the more severe war crime of aggression. This accounting excludes many other atrocities, such as the regular kidnappings and killings on the high seas by Israeli naval forces attacking ships in transit between Cyprus and northern Lebanon, with many of those captured brought to Israel and kept in prison without charge as hostages, and numerous other crimes that are not crimes because they were backed by Washington.13 In journalism and scholarship on terrorism, 1985 is recognized to be the peak year of Middle East terrorism, but not because of these events; rather, because of two terrorist atrocities in which a single person was murdered, in each case an American.14 In the worst of the two terrorist atrocities that passed through the doctrinal filters, a crippled American Jew, Leon Klinghoffer, was brutally murdered during the hijacking of the Achille Lauro cruise ship in October 1985 by a Palestinian terrorist group led by Abu Abbas. The murder "seemed to set a standard for remorselessness among terrorists," New York Times correspondent John Burns wrote. Burns described Abu Abbas as the "has-been monster" who may "finally have to face a day of reckoning with American Justice" for his role in the crime. One of the heralded achievements of the invasion of Iraq was the capture of Abu Abbas a few months later.15 The Klinghoffer murder remains the most vivid and lasting symbol of the ineradicable evil of Arab terrorism and the unanswerable proof that there can be no negotiating with these vermin. The atrocity was very real, and is in no way mitigated by the terrorists' plea that the hijacking was in retaliation for the far more murderous US-backed Israeli terrorist attack on Tunis a week earlier. But the bombing of Tunis does not enter the canon of terrorism because it is subject to the wrongagent fallacy. It remained unmentioned when Abu Abbas was captured. There would of course be no difficulty in apprehending the "monsters" Shimon Peres and George Shultz, who are far from "has beens," and bringing them to "a day of reckoning with American justice." But that is beyond unthinkable. Also efficiently "disappeared" are recent events that bear more than a superficial similarity to the Klinghoffer murder. The reaction was silence when British reporters found "the flattened remains of a wheelchair" in the remnants of the Jenin refugee camp after Sharon's spring 2002 offensive. "It had been utterly crushed, ironed flat as if in a cartoon," they reported: "In the middle of the debris lay a broken white flag." A crippled Palestinian, Kemal Zughayer, "was shot dead as he tried to wheel himself up the road. The Israeli tanks must have driven over the body, because when [a friend] found it, one leg and both arms were missing, and the face, he said, had been ripped in Noam Chomsky
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two."16 If even reported in the US, this would have been dismissed as an inadvertent error in the course of justified retaliation. Kemal Zughayer does not deserve to enter the annals of terrorism along with Leon Klinghoffer. His murder was not under the command of a "monster" but a "man of peace," who enjoys a soulful relation with the "man of vision" in the White House. The basic dynamic at work was outlined twenty years ago by one of Israel's most eminent writers and commentators, Boaz Evron, after an upsurge of settler-IDF violence that caused much consternation in Israel. Evron wrote a sardonic account of how to deal with the lower orders—the "Araboushim" in Israeli slang. Israel should "keep them on a short leash," he wrote, so that they recognize "that the whip is held over their head." As long as not too many people are being visibly killed, then Western humanists will "accept it all peacefully" and even ask, "What is so terrible?"17 The guardians of journalistic integrity in the US understand the lesson without Evron's advice. The most prestigious media watchdog, the Columbia Journalism Review, gave its cherished "laurel" to the US media for their coverage of Sharon's spring 2002 offensive in Jenin, Nablus, Ramallah, and elsewhere, in the thirty-fifth year of Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. The recipients earned the laurel, according to the Review, for ensuring that scrutiny of the offensive would focus on one cardinal question: Was there a purposeful massacre of hundreds of civilians in the Jenin refugee camp?18 If not, then civilized people can "accept it all peacefully." We might try a thought experiment. Suppose that Syria had occupied Israel for thirty-five years, employing the means and measures of Israel's occupation, and then proceeded further to duplicate Sharon's 2002 offensive: rampaging through Jewish towns, leveling large areas with bulldozers and tanks, keeping the population under siege for weeks without food or water or access to medical care, destroying cultural centers and the institutions of government and archaeological treasures, making it crystal clear to the Yids in every possible way that "the whip is held over their head"—but not slaughtering hundreds of them at once. According to the standards of the "laurel," only an anti-Arab racist would object—and discovery of the scattered parts of a murdered Jewish cripple in a wheelchair crushed by a Syrian tank would merit no notice, let alone stern "American Justice." Reviewing "the Jenin story," the Review berated the British press for "embracing Israel's guilt as established fact" and ridiculed the UN for "preparing an investigation by a team whose political sympathies ensured that its conclusions would be challenged," certainly by the independent thinkers of the Review. "Amid all this confounding din," the editors asked, "what was the world to believe?" Fortunately, all was not lost: "Enter the independent U.S. news media, on a fact-finding mission of their own," which refuted the anti-Israel slanders and revealed that there was "no deliberate, coldblooded murder of hundreds" at Jenin—in fact, reaching exactly the same conclusions as the disreputable British media (and others), which, however, did not adopt the framework of US-Israeli propaganda as rigidly as the editors of the Review demand, and scrutinized the Israeli invasion beyond that single question. The "independent U.S. media" did not merit the insulting praise of their cheerleader. Careful readers could learn about the crimes that had taken place, though not in the shocking detail presented in the Israeli and European press. And they were carefully protected from the complicity of their own government, in routine fashion. When the "wrong agents" are implicated in state-supported international terrorism, we sometimes discover that terrorist atrocities are not fully effaced, but rather praised. An instructive case is the country that replaced El Salvador as the leading recipient of US military aid and training: Turkey, where "state terror" was practiced on a massive scale through the Clinton years, relying on US support.19 I borrow the term state terror from the Turkish state minister for human rights, referring to the vast atrocities against Kurds in 1994, and from sociologist Ismail Besikci, returned to prison Noam Chomsky
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after publishing his book State Terror in the Near East, having already served fifteen years for recording Turkish repression of Kurds. As elsewhere, unacceptable facts were "disappeared," but the events did not pass entirely unnoticed. The State Department's Year 2000 report on Washington's "efforts to combat terrorism" singled out Turkey for its "positive experiences" in combating terror, along with Algeria and Spain, worthy colleagues. This praise was reported without comment in a front-page story in the New York Times by its specialist on terrorism. In a leading journal of international affairs, Ambassador Robert Pearson reports that the US "could have no better friend and ally than Turkey" in its efforts "to eliminate terrorism" worldwide, thanks to the "capabilities of [Turkey's] armed forces" demonstrated in their "anti-terror campaign" in the Kurdish southeast.20 As noted, the voluntary US censorship of Turkish state terror was eased slightly in early 2003 during Turkey's democratic deviation, though the decisive role of the United States remained well concealed.21 The considerations just reviewed, a small sample, suggest one simple way to reduce the threat of terror: stop participating in it. That would be a significant contribution to a general "war on terror." Nevertheless, it would not address the category of terror that passes through the doctrinal filters: their terror against us and our clients, an extremely serious matter, no doubt. Let us put that issue aside for a moment and consider a related domain in which attention to truisms may have some value. Truisms and Just War Theory The theory of just war has enjoyed a revival in the context of the "new era of humanitarian intervention" and international terrorism. Consider the strongest case put forth: the bombing of Afghanistan, a paradigm example of just war, according to the Western consensus. The respected moral-political philosopher Jean Bethke Elshtain summarizes received opinion fairly accurately when she writes that "nearly everyone, with the exception of absolute pacifists and those who seem to think we should let ourselves be slaughtered with impunity because so many people out there 'hate' us, agrees" that the bombing of Afghanistan was clearly a just war.22 To mention just one additional example, New York Times columnist Bill Keller, now executive editor, remarks that when "America dispatched soldiers in the cause of 'regime change' " in Afghanistan, "the opposition was mostly limited to the people who are reflexively against the American use of power," either timid supporters or "isolationists, the doctrinaire left and the soft-headed types Christopher Hitchens described as people who, 'discovering a viper in the bed of their child, would place the first call to People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals.' "23 These are empirical statements, so despite the near-unanimity of the declarations, we are entitled to ask whether they are true. Let's ignore the fact that "regime change" was not "the cause" of war in Afghanistan but rather an afterthought late in the game. Were there opponents of the bombing who were not either absolute pacifists or absolute lunatics? It turns out that there were, and the opponents formed an interesting collection. To begin with, they apparently included the great majority of the population of the world when the bombing was announced. So we discover from an international Gallup poll in late September 2001. The lead question was this: "Once the identity of the terrorists is known, should the American government launch a military attack on the country or countries where the terrorists are based or should the American government seek to extradite the terrorists to stand trial?" Whether such diplomatic means could have succeeded is known only to ideological extremists on both sides; tentative explorations of extradition by the Taliban were instantly rebuffed by Washington, which also refused to provide evidence for its accusations.
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World opinion strongly favored diplomatic-judicial measures over military action. In Europe, support for military action ranged from 8 percent in Greece to 29 percent in France. Support was least in Latin America, the region that has the most experience with US intervention: it ranged from 2 percent in Mexico to 11 percent in Colombia and Venezuela. The sole exception was Panama, where only 80 percent preferred peaceful means, 16 percent military attack. Support for strikes that included civilian targets was much less. Even in the two countries polled that supported the use of military force, India and Israel (where the reasons were parochial), considerable majorities opposed such attacks. There was, then, overwhelming opposition to Washington's actual policies, which not only included civilian targets but even turned major urban concentrations into "ghost towns" from the first moment, the press reported. The Gallup poll was not reported in the US, though it was elsewhere, including Latin America.24 Notice that even this very limited support for the bombing was based on a crucial presupposition: that those responsible for 9-11 were known. But they were not, as the government quietly informed us eight months after the bombing. In June 2002, FBI director Robert Mueller testified before a Senate committee, delivering what the press described as some of "his most detailed public comments on the origins of the attacks" of 9-11.25 Mueller informed the Senate that "investigators believe the idea of the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon came from al Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan," though the plotting and financing may trace to Germany and the United Arab Emirates. "We think the masterminds of it were in Afghanistan, high in the al Qaeda leadership," Mueller said. If the indirect responsibility of Afghanistan could only be surmised in June 2002, it evidently could not have been known eight months before, when President Bush ordered the bombing of Afghanistan. According to the FBI, then, the bombing was a war crime, an act of aggression, based on mere supposition. It also follows directly that there was virtually no detectable world support for the policies actually undertaken, since even the minimal support recorded by polls was based on a presupposition that Washington and London knew to be false. Perhaps the former director of Human Rights Watch Africa, now a professor of law at Emory University, spoke for many others around the world when he addressed the International Council on Human Rights Policy in Geneva in January 2002, saying that "I am unable to appreciate any moral, political or legal difference between this jihad by the United States against those it deems to be its enemies and the jihad by Islamic groups against those they deem to be their enemies."26 What about Afghan opinion? Information is scanty but not entirely lacking. In late October 2001, after three weeks of intense bombing, 1,000 Afghan leaders gathered in Peshawar, some exiles, some coming from within Afghanistan, all committed to overthrowing the Taliban regime. It was "a rare display of unity among tribal elders, Islamic scholars, fractious politicians, and former guerrilla commanders," the press reported. They had many disagreements but unanimously "urged the US to stop the air raids" and appealed to the international media to call for an end to the "bombing of innocent people." They urged that other means be adopted to overthrow the hated Taliban regime, a goal they believed could be achieved without further death and destruction. A similar message was conveyed by Afghan opposition leader Abdul Haq, who was highly regarded in Washington and by Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Just before he entered Afghanistan without US support, and was then captured and killed, Haq condemned the bombing then under way and criticized the US for refusing to back his efforts and those of others "to create a revolt within the Taliban." The bombing was "a big setback for these efforts," he said: The US "is trying to show its muscle, score a victory and scare everyone in the world. They don't care about the suffering of the Afghans or how many people we will lose." The prominent Afghan women's Noam Chomsky
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organization RAWA, which received some belated recognition when it became ideologically serviceable to express concern about the fate of women in Afghanistan, also bitterly condemned the bombing.27 Among other opponents of the bombing were the major aid and relief agencies, deeply concerned over the likely effect on the population, agreeing with academic specialists that the bombing posed a "grave risk" of starvation for millions of people.28 In short, the lunatic fringe was not insubstantial. Let us turn now to the most elementary principle of just war theory, universality. Those who cannot accept this principle should have the decency to keep silent about matters of right and wrong, or just war. If we can rise to this level, some obvious questions arise: for example, have Cuba and Nicaragua been entitled to set off bombs in Washington, New York, and Miami in self-defense against ongoing terrorist attack? Particularly so when the perpetrators are well known and act with complete impunity, sometimes in brazen defiance of the highest international authorities, so that the cases are far clearer than Afghanistan? If not, why not? Certainly one cannot appeal to the scale of crimes to justify such a stand; the merest look at the factual record bars that move. If these questions are not answered, just war pronouncements cannot be taken seriously. I have yet to discover a single case where the questions are even raised. That leads to some conclusions that may not be particularly attractive but that might merit attention and self-examination—and serious concern about the long-term implications of the apparent inability to accept the principle of universality that underlies these failures. Although the critical questions are not answered, or in fact even raised, related issues occasionally do come up, and in a manner that gives some useful insight into the prevailing moral and intellectual culture. The Latin American correspondent of the New York Times informs us that Latin American intellectuals have "reflexively accorded ... anti-American leaders immunity to the moral standards applied to other leaders." His evidence is a statement by Latin American intellectuals warning against a post-Iraq invasion of Cuba. He believes a "psychological explanation" may be necessary to account for their failure to adopt "universal moral standards."29 No psychological explanation seems necessary, however, when he and his associates "reflexively accord" their leaders "immunity to the moral standards" they apply to others: specifically, the moral standards that would call for severe punishment for anyone else who dared to carry out terrorist wars comparable to those that their leaders have conducted against Cuba and Nicaragua. Consider how Elshtain's argument on Afghanistan fares within her own framework. She formulates four criteria for just war. First, force is justified if it "protects the innocent from certain harm"; her sole example is when a country has "certain knowledge that genocide will commence on a certain date" and the victims have no means of self-defense. Second, the war "must be openly declared or otherwise authorized by a legitimate authority." Third, it "must begin with the right intentions." Fourth, it "must be a last resort after other possibilities for the redress and defense of the values at stake have been explored." The first condition is inapplicable to Afghanistan. The second and third are meaningless: an open declaration of war by an aggressor confers no support whatsoever for a claim of just war; the worst criminals claim "right intentions," and there are always acolytes to endorse the claims. The fourth Noam Chomsky
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obviously does not apply in Afghanistan. Therefore her paradigm case collapses entirely, under her own criteria. That aside, whatever one thinks of Elshtain's belief that the bombing of Afghanistan met her conditions, these conditions hold with far greater clarity for many of the victims of US statesupported international terrorism. On her own grounds, then, these victims should be granted the right to wage a just war against the US by bombing and terror, as long as it is openly declared and accompanied by a pronouncement of "right intentions." The reduction to absurdity, however, presupposes that we adopt the principle of universality, unmentioned in her historical/philosophical study and tacitly rejected in the standard fashion. Let's bring in some further relevant facts. The official motive for the bombing of Afghanistan was to force the Taliban to hand over people that the US suspected of involvement in the crimes of 9-11; the US refused, however, to provide any evidence. At the time when Taliban reluctance to comply was the lead story of the day, arousing much fury, Haiti renewed its request for extradition of Emmanuel Constant, leader of the paramilitary forces that had primary responsibility for the brutal murder of thousands of Haitians during the early 1990s, when the military junta was supported, not so tacitly, by the first Bush and Clinton administrations. The request apparently did not even merit a response, or more than the barest report. Constant had been sentenced in absentia in Haiti; it is widely assumed that the US is concerned that if he testifies, he may reveal contacts between the state terrorists and Washington.30 Does Haiti therefore have the right to set off bombs in Washington? Or to try to kidnap or kill Constant in New York, where he lives, killing bystanders in approved Israeli style? If not, why not? Why is the question not even raised in this case, or in that of other murderous state terrorists who enjoy safe haven in the US? And if the question is considered too absurd even to consider (as it is, by elementary moral standards), where does that leave the consensus on the resort to violence by one's own leaders? Referring to 9-11, some argue that the evil of terrorism is "absolute" and merits a "reciprocally absolute doctrine" in response: ferocious military assault in accord with the Bush doctrine that "If you harbor terrorists, you're a terrorist; if you aid and abet terrorists, you're a terrorist—and you will be treated like one."3i It would be hard to find anyone who accepts the doctrine that massive bombing is a legitimate response to terrorist crimes. No sane person would agree that bombing Washington would be legitimate in accord with the "reciprocally absolute doctrine" on response to terrorist atrocities, or a justified and properly "calibrated" response to them. If there is some reason why this observation is inappropriate, it has yet to be articulated, even contemplated, as far as I have been able to discover. Consider some of the legal arguments that have been presented to justify the US-UK bombing of Afghanistan. Christopher Greenwood argues that the US has the right of "self-defense" against "those who caused or threatened... death and destruction," appealing to the World Court ruling in the Nicaragua case. The paragraph he cites applies far more clearly to the US war against Nicaragua than to the Taliban or Al Qaeda, so if it is taken to justify intensive US bombardment and ground attack in Afghanistan, then Nicaragua should have been entitled to carry out much more severe attacks against the US. Another distinguished professor of international law, Thomas Franck, supports the US-UK war on grounds that "a state is responsible for the consequences of permitting its territory to be used to injure another state"; the principle is surely applicable to the US in the case of Nicaragua, Cuba, and many other examples.32 Needless to say, in no such case would an appeal to the right of "self-defense" against continuing acts of "death and destruction" be remotely tolerable: acts, not merely threats. Noam Chomsky
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The same holds for more nuanced proposals for an appropriate response to terrorist atrocities. Military historian Michael Howard proposes "a police operation conducted under the auspices of the United Nations ... against a criminal conspiracy whose members should be hunted down and brought before an international court, where they would receive a fair trial and, if found guilty, be awarded an appropriate sentence." Reasonable enough, though the idea that such measures be applied to the US or Britain is unthinkable.33 Two Oxford scholars propose a principle of "proportionality": "The magnitude of response will be determined by the magnitude with which the aggression interfered with key values in the society attacked"; in the case of 9-11, "freedom to pursue self-betterment in a plural society through market economics." That value was viciously attacked on 9-11 by "aggressors ... with a moral orthodoxy divergent from the West." Since "Afghanistan constitutes a state that sided with the aggressor," and refused US demands to turn over suspects, "the United States and its allies, according to the principle of magnitude of interference, could justifiably and morally resort to force against the Taliban government."34 If the moral orthodoxy of the West accommodates the principle of universality, it follows that Cuba and Nicaragua (in fact, many others) can "justifiably and morally resort to" far greater force against the US government. Uncontroversially, the US terrorist attacks and other illegal actions against Cuba and Nicaragua "interfered with key values in the society attacked," far more dramatically than in the case of 9-11, and were intended to do so. Furthermore, since Britain "sided with the aggressor," Oxford too should be subject to attack, at least by Nicaragua. We are entitled to ask why the conclusion cannot even be contemplated (quite properly, of course) and what that implies about the elite intellectual culture. The conclusions with regard to the principle of universality extend far beyond these cases, including even such minor escapades (by US-UK standards) as Clinton's missile attack on the al-Shifa pharmaceutical plant in Sudan in 1998, which led to "several tens of thousands" of deaths, according to the only reputable estimates we have, estimates consistent with the immediate assessment of Human Rights Watch and later reports of knowledgeable observers.35 A crime of even a fraction of the scale would elicit fury if the target were the US, Israel, or some other worthy victim, and retaliation of a kind that one hesitates to imagine, which would furthermore be acclaimed as a paradigm example of just war. The principle of proportionality entails that Sudan had every right to carry out massive terror in retaliation, even more so if we adopt the more extreme view that Clinton's missile attack had "appalling consequences for the economy and society" of Sudan,36 so that the atrocity was much worse than the crimes of 9-11, which were appalling enough but did not have such consequences. Almost all of the limited commentary on the Sudan bombing keeps to the question of whether the plant was believed to produce chemical weapons. True or false, that has no bearing at all on the crime; specifically, on "the magnitude with which the aggression interfered with key values in the society attacked." Many point out that the resulting deaths were unintended, so that the perpetrators, and those who disregard the consequences of the attack, are not culpable. The argument again illustrates, dramatically, the standard rejection of the principle of universality. We would never accept this stand for a moment with regard to others: many of the atrocities we (rightly) denounce are unintended, though that is considered irrelevant—when the perpetrator is someone other than ourselves. But a much harsher conclusion follows, immediately and unequivocally. The claim that the actions were not criminal can be sustained only on the assumption that the fate of the victims was of no concern to the perpetrators. We cannot seriously doubt that the likely human consequences were understood by US planners; the CIA knew as well as Human Rights Watch and Noam Chomsky
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many others that they were destroying the country's major source of pharmaceuticals and veterinary medicines, and what the likely effects would be. And the same conclusions could have been drawn at once, and surely can be now, by anyone who thinks that the effects of our violence on poor Africans might merit some concern. The acts can be excused, then, only on the Hegelian doctrine that Africans are "mere things," whose lives have "no value." Observing the attitudes and practice that prevail, those outside the ranks of Western privilege may draw their own conclusions about the "moral orthodoxy of the West." Confronting Terror Let us now restrict the term terror—improperly, but in accord with near-universal convention—to the subcategory that passes through the doctrinal filters. The wars contemplated as part of the redeclared "war on terror" are to go on for a long time. "There's no telling how many wars it will take to secure freedom in the homeland," the president announced.37 That's fair enough. Potential threats are virtually limitless everywhere, even at home, as the anthrax attack and the failed investigations of it illustrate. Not only is the "war on terror," as conceived, likely to go on for a long time, but it also did not suddenly become a crucial issue on 9-11. The terrorist attacks of that day were not entirely unexpected, yet another reason to question the widely held belief that 9-11 signaled a sharp change in the course of history. Even readers of newspaper headlines, and surely government planners, were well aware years earlier that atrocities of the 9-11 variety might occur. After all, in 1993, one almost did occur. Organizations presumably related to those responsible for 9-11 came perilously close to blowing up the World Trade Center and killing perhaps tens of thousands of people. It was also known, at once, that they had far more ambitious plans that were barely aborted in time. Even with the hideous consummation of these plans on 9-11, risk assessments did not significantly change. Prospects of major terrorist atrocities were publicly discussed well before 9-11. And there could have been little doubt of the nature of the radical Islamist terrorist organizations since at least 1981, when elements that formed part of the core of Al Qaeda in later years assassinated President Sadat of Egypt; or a few years later, when groups that may have been loosely related drove US forces out of Beirut, killing hundreds of troops and many civilians in separate attacks. Furthermore, the thinking of those involved in these and other similar actions was reasonably well understood, certainly by the US intelligence agencies that had helped to recruit, train, and arm them from 1980 and continued to work with them even as they were attacking the United States. The Dutch government inquiry into the Srebrenica massacre revealed that while radical Islamists . were attempting to blow up the World Trade Center, others from the CIA-formed networks were being flown by the US from Afghanistan to Bosnia, along with Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighters and a substantial supply of arms. They were being brought to support the US side in the Balkan wars, while Israel (along with Ukraine and Greece) was arming the Serbs (possibly with US-supplied arms).38 The atrocities of 9-11 serve as a dramatic reminder of what has long been understood: the rich and powerful no longer are assured the near monopoly of violence that has largely prevailed throughout history; and with modern technology, the prospects are horrendous indeed. Though terrorism is rightly feared everywhere and is indeed an intolerable "return to barbarism," it is not surprising that perceptions about its nature differ rather sharply at opposite ends of the guns, a fact that is ignored at their peril by those whom history has accustomed to immunity while they perpetrate terrible crimes, quite apart from the moral cowardice so starkly revealed. Noam Chomsky
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There are broad tendencies in global affairs that are expected to enhance the threat of this category of terror. Some are discussed by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) in its projections for the coming years.39 The NIC expects the official version of globalization to continue on course: "Its evolution will be rocky, marked by chronic financial volatility and a widening economic divide." Financial volatility very likely means slower growth, extending the pattern of neoliberal globalization (for those who follow the rules) and harming mostly the poor. The NIC goes on to predict that as this form of globalization proceeds, "deepening economic stagnation, political instability, and cultural alienation [will] foster ethnic, ideological and religious extremism, along with the violence that often accompanies it," much of it directed against the United States. "Unsurprisingly," Kenneth Waltz observes, the weak and disaffected "lash out at the United States as the agent or symbol of their suffering."40 The same assumptions are made by military planners, a matter to which we return. Those concerned to reduce the threat of terror will attend carefully to such factors as these, and also to specific actions and long-term policies that exacerbate them. They will also distinguish carefully between the terrorist networks themselves and the larger community that provides a reservoir from which radical terrorist cells can sometimes draw. That community includes the poor and oppressed, who are of no concern to the terrorist groups and suffer from their crimes, as well as wealthy and secular elements, who are bitter about US policies and quietly express support for bin Laden, whom they detest and fear, as "the conscience of Islam," because at least he reacts to these policies, even if in horrifying and disastrous ways.41 The distinction is elementary. Among those who wish to mitigate terrorist threats, it is understood that "unless the social, political, and economic conditions that spawned Al Qaeda and other associated groups are addressed, the United States and its allies in Western Europe and elsewhere will continue to be targeted by Islamist terrorists." Accordingly, "the US should, for its own selfprotection, expand efforts to reduce the pathology of hatred before it mutates into even greater danger," seeking to "moderate ... conditions that breed violence and terrorism." The "key to strategically weakening al-Qaeda is to erode its fledgling support base—to wean away its supporters and potential supporters." Washington planner Paul Wolfowitz adds that it is crucial to eliminate policies that have been "a huge recruiting device for al Qaeda."42 Nothing can appease those "who believe a 'clash of civilisations' with the west will restore Islam as a world power," the editors of the Financial Times write. But to "crush them ... successfully they must be separated from their widening constituency." They add: "Put another way, while only might can destroy al-Qaeda, its expanding support base can be eroded only by policies Arabs and Muslims see as just." Even destruction of Al Qaeda will do little if "the underlying conditions that facilitated the group's emergence and popularity—political oppression and economic marginalization— will persist." Correspondingly, continuation of Washington's backing for "sordid governments" can only "bolster al-Qaeda's claims that the US supports the oppression of Muslims and props up brutal governments."43 That is quite aside from specific policies regarding Palestine and Iraq and others, which have converted "a generation of Arabs wooed by the United States and persuaded by its principles [to] among the most vociferous critics of America's world view, [including] affluent businessmen with ties to the West, U.S.-educated intellectuals and liberal activists."44 Terrorist networks can be severely weakened. That happened to Al Qaeda after 9-11, thanks to the kind of police work Michael Howard recommended: notably in Germany, Pakistan, and Indonesia. But their "support base" has to be approached in radically different ways: by considering grievances and, if they are legitimate, addressing them in a serious way, as should be done irrespective of any threat. "Delicate social and political problems cannot be bombed or 'missiled' out of existence," two political scientists point out: "By dropping bombs and firing missiles, the United States only spreads Noam Chomsky
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these festering problems. Violence can be likened to a virus; the more you bombard it, the more it spreads."45 The Financial Times editors are right to say that the terrorist atrocity in Jiddah, which occasioned their comments, was "not unexpected." And more generally, that "it had long been obvious" that the "network inspired by Osama bin Laden would use the upheaval of the Iraq war to relaunch attacks against western targets and drum up support for its jihad." It was widely predicted by intelligence services and analysts in the mainstream that the invasion of Iraq would be likely to inspire terrorism. It is therefore "not unexpected [that] since the United States invaded Iraq in March, [US] officials said, the [Al Qaeda] network has experienced a spike in recruitment," and "there is an increase in radical fundamentalism all over the world." A UN report indicated that recruitment for Al Qaeda accelerated in thirty to forty countries as the US "began building up for the Iraq invasion."46 An intelligence report by a European ally warns that the invasion "could have a cataclysmic effect on the mobilization for Al Qaeda."47 "That the conflict in Iraq led to a rise in recruitment for radical groups is now so clear that even US officials admit it," a close observer of Al Qaeda and terrorism writes: "This is a huge setback in the 'war on terror.' " The war has, in fact, created a new "terrorist haven": Iraq itself.48 With regard to the terrorist networks themselves, scholarship is virtually unanimous in taking them at their word, which has matched their deeds from the days when they were organized by the CIA and its associates. Their goal, in their terms, is to drive the infidels from Muslim lands, to overthrow the corrupt and brutal governments imposed and sustained by the infidels, and to institute an extremist version of Islam. They despise the Russians with passion but ceased their terrorist attacks against Russia based in Afghanistan when Russia withdrew, though these continue from Chechnya. And as bin Laden announced in 1998, "the call to wage war against America was made [when it sent] tens of thousands of its troops to the land of the two Holy Mosques over and above ... its support of the oppressive, corrupt and tyrannical regime that is in control. These are the reasons for the singling out of America as a target."49 But their goals may well become more ambitious, and their recruiting base more expansive as well, if the enthusiasts for a "clash of civilizations" prefer to try to " 'missile' delicate social and political problems out of existence" rather than address the problems and thus infringe on power and privilege. The bombing in Jiddah after the Iraq war fits the pattern of earlier actions. The target was the civilian compound of Vinnell Corp., a subsidiary of Northrop Grumman, which provides retired US military officers "to train the elite armed forces that protect the royal family," not from foreign invasion. A Vinnell training facility had been bombed in 1995. The bombing "makes the point that you are going after aspects of the military presence in Saudi Arabia," a British risk analyst observed: the military "contractors who play a very important supporting role."50 Michael Ignatieff, who advocates a US imperial role in the Middle East, reflects a broad consensus in writing that the "larger challenge" for the US, and "the chief danger in the whole Iraqi gamble," is "to enforce a peace on the Palestinians and Israelis." The US-enforced peace "must, as a minimum, give the Palestinians a viable, contiguous state" and rebuild "their shattered infrastructure." To leave "the Palestinians to face Israeli tanks and helicopter gunships is a virtual guarantee of unending Islamic wrath against the United States."51 Ignatieff writes that "Americans have played imperial guarantor" since the 1940s, but he does not explain what the US has "guaranteed" since it assumed the mantle. He also overlooks the fact that Israeli gunships are US gunships with Israeli pilots, and that the tanks would not be able to do their work without US largesse. Also unexamined is why the US should be expected to reverse so dramatically the policy of unilateral rejectionism tracing back over thirty years. Putting these and Noam Chomsky
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other not inconsequential matters aside, his perception has considerable plausibility. Those who have an interest in mitigating rather than "enhancing terror" (to borrow again the president's words) might do well to attend to the advice of those with the most experience in confronting it. None have more experience than Israel's General Security Service (Shabak), responsible for "counterterror" in the occupied territories. The head of Shabak from 1996 to 2000, Ami Ayalon, observed that "those who want victory" against terror without addressing underlying grievances "want an unending war"—much as President Bush proclaimed. The former head of Israeli military intelligence (1991-1995), Uri Sagie, draws similar conclusions. As the Lebanon invasion and other military actions illustrate, he wrote, Israel will get nowhere by following the slogan "We will teach you what is good for you [by our superior force]. We must see things from the perspective of the other side... . Those who hope for mutual survival with the Arabs must accept a minimum of respect for Arab society." The alternative is unending war.52 Ayalon and Sagie are speaking of Israel-Palestine, where the "solution to the problem of terrorism is to offer an honorable solution to the Palestinians respecting their right to self-determination." So Yehoshaphat Harkabi—former head of Israel military intelligence and a leading Arabist—observed twenty years ago, at a time when Israel still retained its substantial immunity from retaliation from within the occupied territories.53 The observations generalize in familiar ways: Northern Ireland, to mention one case, is far from a paradise but vastly improved over the days when Britain ignored legitimate grievances in favor of force. The specific policies that inflamed the potential "support base" for Islamic terrorism were IsraelPalestine and the murderous US-UK sanctions regime in Iraq. But long before, there were more fundamental issues. Again, it makes little sense to ignore these, at least for those who hope to reduce the likelihood of further terrorist crimes or to answer George W. Bush's plaintive question, "Why do they hate us?" The question is wrongly put: they do not hate us, but rather the policies of our government, something quite different. If the question is properly formulated, answers to it are not hard to find. In the critical year 1958, President Eisenhower and his staff discussed what he called the "campaign of hatred against us" in the Arab world, "not by the governments but by the people." The basic reason, the National Security Council advised, was the perception that the US supports corrupt and brutal governments and is "opposing political or economic progress" in order "to protect its interest in Near East oil."54 The Wall Street Journal and others found much the same when they investigated attitudes of westernized "Moneyed Muslims" after 9-11: bankers, professionals, managers of multinationals, and so on. They strongly support US policies in general but are bitter about US support for corrupt and repressive regimes that undermine democracy and development, and the more specific and recent issues concerning Israel-Palestine and Iraq sanctions.55
These are attitudes of people who like Americans and admire much about the United States, including its freedoms. What they hate are official policies that deny them the freedoms to which they too aspire. Attitudes in the slums and villages are probably similar, but harsher. Unlike the "moneyed Muslims," the mass of the population have never agreed that the wealth of the region should be drained to the West and local collaborators, rather than serving domestic needs.
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Many commentators prefer more comforting answers: anger in the Muslim world is rooted in resentment of our freedom and democracy; in their own cultural failings tracing back many centuries; in their alleged inability to take part in the form of "globalization" in which they, in fact, happily participate; and other such deficiencies. More comforting, perhaps, but not too wise. Little has changed since 9-11. Washington's increased support for the dictatorships of Central Asia is only one illustration, arousing deep hostility among democratic forces. Ahmed Rashid reports that in Pakistan as well "there is growing anger that U.S. support is allowing [Musharraf's] military regime to delay the promise of democracy." A well-known Egyptian academic traces hostility toward the US to its support for "every possible anti-democratic government in the Arab-Islamic world... .When we hear American officials speaking of freedom, democracy and such values, they make terms like these sound obscene." An Egyptian writer added that "living in a country with an atrocious human rights record that also happens to be strategically vital to US interests is an illuminating lesson in moral hypocrisy and political double standards." Terrorism, he said, is "a reaction to the injustice in the region's domestic politics, inflicted in large part by the US." The director of the terrorism program at the Council of Foreign Relations agreed that "backing repressive regimes like Egypt and Saudi Arabia is certainly a leading cause of antiAmericanism in the Arab world," but warned that "in both cases the likely alternatives are even nastier."56 There is a long and illuminating history of the problems in supporting democratic forms while ensuring that they will lead to preferred outcomes, not just in the Middle East. And it doesn't win many friends. Opinion surveys in early 2003 reveal that from Morocco to the Gulf Emirates, "a huge majority ... said that, if given the choice, they would like their Islamic clergy to play roles bigger than the subservient ones currently prescribed by most Arab governments." Almost 95 percent dismissed the idea that the US is committed to "a more democratic Arab or Muslim world," believing instead that the war in Iraq was waged to ensure "control of Arab oil and the subjugation of the Palestinians to Israel's will"; and "overwhelming margins" expect terrorism to increase as a consequence of the invasion. Throughout the Arab and Muslim worlds, as far as Indonesia, Islamic fundamentalism is on the rise, appealing not only to the poor but increasingly to more privileged and educated sectors as well, while "America's natural friends, who could provide liberal alternatives," share the "deep mistrust of U.S. intentions and policies."57 Attitudes remain rooted in the same perceptions as half a century ago, for substantial reasons. "George Bush is despised even by those who used to admire the US," Jonathan Steele reports from Jordan: "anger with Britain and America has grown" and "Blair's promises of action to solve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict are not taken seriously." Even the most Western-oriented Jordanians believe that the war "set [democracy] back across the Middle East" and placed "advocates of modernisation and secular values ... on the defensive," and "few doubt that yet more violence will emerge."58 A prominent Egyptian intellectual for whom the US "was a 'dream', a paragon of liberal values to be emulated by Arabs and Muslims," and who "has devoted decades of his life to modernizing Islamic life and promoting understanding between Muslims and non-Muslims," regards the Bush administration as "narrow-minded, pathological, obstinate and simplistic." It is to blame for the fact that "to most people in this area, the United States is the source of evil on planet earth," he says. "Similar opinions can also be heard these days from wealthy Arab businessmen, university professors, senior government officials and Western-leaningpoliticalanalysts"59— very much as before, but now with far greater intensity and despair. If the voice of the people is allowed a hearing Noam Chomsky
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in the "New Middle East," it might turn out to be the voice of radical Islamists calling for jihad, or of secular nationalists whose perceptions of history, and current practice, are not quite those of Anglo-American elites. What has been reviewed here is the barest sample of what we readily discover if we pay some attention to elementary fact and agree to apply to ourselves the standards we impose on others. More follows if we are willing to enter the moral arena in a serious way, going beyond the merest truisms and recognizing the obligation to help suffering people as best we can, a responsibility that naturally accrues to privilege. It is not pleasant to speculate about the likely consequences if concentrated power continues on its present course, protected from the scrutiny that would be second nature if we were to take seriously the legacy of freedom we enjoy.
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Chapter 9 A Passing Nightmare?
After 9-11, the country was "peering into the abyss of the future."1 The awesome threat of terror, though clear enough since the attack on the World Trade Center in 1993, was now too palpable to ignore. To be more precise, it was the public that was peering into the abyss. Those at the center of power relentlessly pursue their own agendas, understanding that they can exploit the fears and anguish of the moment. They may even institute measures that deepen the abyss and may march resolutely toward it, if that advances the goals of power and privilege. They declare that it is unpatriotic and disruptive to question the workings of authority—but patriotic to institute harsh and regressive policies that benefit the wealthy, undermine social programs that serve the needs of the great majority, and subordinate a frightened population to increased state control. "Literally before the dust had settled" over the World Trade Center ruins, Paul Krugman reported, influential Republicans signaled that they were "determined to use terrorism as an excuse to pursue a radical right-wing agenda."2 He and others have documented the relentless pursuit of that agenda. A natural reaction of concentrated power to any crisis, it was unusually ugly in this case. Others states perceived the same opportunity. Russia eagerly joined the "coalition against terror" expecting to receive authorization for its atrocities in Chechnya, and was not disappointed. China happily joined for similar reasons. Israel recognized that it would be able to crush Palestinians even more brutally, with even firmer US support. And so on, throughout much of the world. The threat of international terrorism is surely severe. The horrendous events of 9-11 had perhaps the most devastating instant human toll on record, outside of war. The word instant should not be overlooked; the crime is not otherwise unusual in the annals of violence that falls short of war, as understood very well by the traditional victims. The threat of terrorism is, however, not the only abyss into which we peer. A much more grave threat to biology's only experiment with higher intelligence is posed by weapons of mass destruction. In an important 1995 document, the US Strategic Command (STRAT-COM) described nuclear weapons as the most valuable in the arsenal, because "unlike chemical or biological weapons, the extreme destruction from a nuclear explosion is immediate, with few if any palliatives to reduce its effect." Furthermore, "nuclear weapons always cast a shadow over any crisis or conflict," hence must be visible, at the ready. The study advises that planners should not portray themselves "as too fully rational and cool-headed... . That the U.S. may become irrational and vindictive if its vital interests are attacked should be a part of the national persona we project." It is "beneficial" for our strategic posture if "some elements may appear to be potentially 'out of control.' " Clinton's STRATCOM was proposing a version of Nixon's famous "madman theory," which he and Kissinger applied in an October 1969 nuclear alert that they believed to be risk-free but that might have gotten out of control because of critical factors they ignored—yet another example of the unpredictable consequences of the threat or use of force, which in the current era can be very serious indeed. The US must retain the right of first use of nuclear weapons, STRATCOM advised further, even against non-nuclear powers that have signed the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and must continue to maintain its launch-on-warning posture for strategic nuclear missiles, on hair-trigger Noam Chomsky
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alert. It appears that the Clinton administration adopted these proposals.3 The US is unusual, perhaps unique, in the access it allows to high-level planning documents, an important achievement of American democracy. This one, like others, has been available for years but is scarcely known; not a democratic triumph. A Passing Nightmare? Severe threats are not limited to the weapons of mass destruction in the hands of the powerful. Small nuclear weapons can be smuggled into any country with relative ease, along with other potentially very destructive varieties of WMD.4 The most immediate threat, a Department of Energy task force advised, is that "there could be 40,000 nuclear weapons ... in the former Soviet Union, poorly controlled and poorly stored." One of the first acts of the Bush administration was to cut back a small program to assist Russia in safeguarding and dismantling these weapons and providing alternative employment for nuclear scientists, a decision that increases the risks of accidental launch, and also leakage of "loose nukes," perhaps followed by nuclear scientists with no other way to employ their skills.5 Programs for missile defense are expected to enhance these threats. US intelligence predicts that any American deployment will impel China to develop new nuclear-armed missiles, expanding its arsenal tenfold, probably with multiple warheads (MIRV), "prompting India and Pakistan to respond with their own buildups," with a likely ripple effect to the Middle East. Intelligence officials also predict that "Russia and China both would increase proliferation, including 'selling countermeasures for sure' to such nations as North Korea, Iran, Iraq, and Syria." These and other analyses conclude further that Russia's "only rational response to the [National Missile Defense] system would be to maintain, and strengthen, the existing Russian nuclear force."6 The Bush administration announced that "it has no objections to [China's] plans to build up its small fleet of nuclear missiles," shifting policy in the hope of gaining Chinese acquiescence to the planned dismantling of core arms control agreements. For similar reasons, Clinton negotiators had encouraged Russia to adopt a launch-on-warning strategy, a proposal that nuclear experts regarded as "pretty bizarre" because we know that Russia's deteriorating warning systems are "full of holes" and prone to false alerts, increasing the "threat of Russian unauthorized, accidental, and erroneous launches." Chinese resumption of nuclear testing was also being quietly endorsed, it was reported. Strategic analysts pointed out that this change of policy would encourage China to aim more nuclear-armed missiles at the US and Japan, with the expected effect on Japanese and Taiwanese programs. At the same time, the press reported that the US would impose sanctions on China for allowing the transfer to Pakistan of "missile parts and technology that are essentially for weapons that can carry nuclear warheads."7 All "pretty bizarre," if security is a highly valued concern. Missile defense and other military programs of the Bush administration are "inherently provocative" to Russia and China, John Stein-bruner and Jeffrey Lewis point out. Like other strategic analysts, they describe the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty signed by Bush and Putin in May 2002 as mostly for show: it "will not meaningfully diminish the lethal potential of either nation's nuclear force." Nor will it establish a stable strategic balance: "the deteriorating Russian arsenal will become increasingly vulnerable to preemptive attack, particularly as the United States undertakes planned modernization of nuclear forces and the deployment of missile defenses"—probably driving Russia to react in turn, as later reports indicate. China also recognizes US programs to be a direct threat to its minimal deterrent force, and is likely to readjust priorities from economic development to defense. China was particularly alarmed, Steinbruner and Lewis write, by a 1998 long-range planning document of the US Space Command outlining a new concept of "global engagement," including "space-based strike capabilities" that would allow the US to attack any Noam Chomsky
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country and to "deny similar capability to any other countries," another Clinton-era precursor to the National Security Strategy of September 2002. The UN Conference on Disarmament has been deadlocked since 1998 by China's insistence on maintaining the use of space for peaceful means and Washington's refusal to agree, alienating many allies and creating conditions for confrontation.8 A May 2003 Rand Corporation study concludes that "the potential for an accidental or unauthorized nuclear missile launch in Russia or the United States has grown over the past decade despite warmer U.S.-Russian relations." Neglecting these risks "could produce possibly the greatest disaster in modern history, and possibly in world history," said former senator Sam Nunn, cochairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which funded the report. The major threat derives from the thousands of nuclear warheads that each side maintains, with the US increasing its nuclear capabilities, which will drive Russia to heightened alert status and probable implementation of "a 'launch-on-warning' approach to warfare requiring rapid reaction" for launching some 3,000 warheads, sharply increasing the danger of nuclear destruction by accident. Nunn, too, dismisses the Bush-Putin treaty of 2002 as meaningless. Like the US, Russia responded to the treaty by rapidly increasing the scale and sophistication of its nuclear and other military systems, motivated in part by concerns about US plans.9 The extent of the problem of "grave proliferation risks" from stockpiles of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons was also revealed in a study issued by a consortium of influential research centers. It concludes that "virtually none" of Russia's plutonium and "less than one-seventh" of its highly enriched uranium has been rendered unusable for nuclear weapons, and "the same is true for the United States." Moreover, " 'Thousands of weapons scientists and workers [in Russia] are still unemployed or underemployed,' the report says, and susceptible to lucrative offers of work from countries that could have secret germ weapons programs." There has been some progress under the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, but the tasks ahead remain daunting.10 As noted, the National Security Strategy of 2002 virtually ignored measures to alleviate the threat of military confrontation. No less disturbing, it invited potential adversaries to "continue to seek deterrence through their own mass-casualty weapons and novel means to deliver them," thus breeding proliferation and all that it entails. Bush's budget proposals reflected the same priorities. Missile defense alone received more funding than the entire State Department, and four times as much as "programs to safeguard dangerous weapons and materials in the former Soviet Union." Maintaining the US nuclear arsenal and preparing for resumption of nuclear tests received almost five times as much funding as initiatives to control "loose nukes" and fissile materials.11 Even before the National Security Strategy was announced, Bush had called for programs for offensive use of nuclear arms. His Pentagon planners described both nuclear and non-nuclear weapons as "offensive strike systems" that can be a "key pillar of a 'new triad' of offensive, defensive and military industrial resources," providing new means to "defeat opponents decisively." Traditional policy "has been turned upside down," Ivo Daalder of Brookings observes, as nuclear weapons become "a tool of warfighting rather than deterrence," also eroding the distinction between conventional weapons and WMD. Bush further proceeded "to lower the nuclear threshold and break down the firewall separating nuclear weapons from everything else" as the US prepared for the invasion of Iraq, making the world "infinitely more dangerous than it was two years ago, when George W. Bush took the presidential oath of office," military analyst William Arkin wrote.12 In May 2003, Congress adopted the Bush administration programs, opening the door to "a new generation of nuclear weapons, potentially touching off an arms race as other nations try to match American capability."13 The Senate Armed Services Committee repealed a 1993 ban on research Noam Chomsky
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and development of low-yield nuclear weapons. Though the technology is so advanced that others are unlikely to follow suit directly, the change in policy is nevertheless "good news" to nuclear states in Asia, an Indian disarmament expert comments unhappily, helping them "claim that they can refine their weapons systems and the research also." Another adds that "the policy of the US toward Iraq and North Korea only gives more incentive for nations to get nuclear weapons. ... If the US tests weapons, then China will test [and] there will be domestic pressure for India to test as well," then Pakistan: "You're opening a can of worms."14 Defense analyst Harlan Ullman warned that a country that is specifically threatened, like Iran, "might hurry its nuclear weapons program after seeing the United States lead an assault on Iraq," providing the pretext for an invasion of Iran, in a self-fulfilling prophecy. Others expect that Pakistan, "feeling pushed into desperation by India and its significant superiority in conventional forces, would feel freer to use nuclear weapons in a first strike."15 Extension of the arms race to space has been a core program for some years; race is a misleading term, because the US is competing alone, for the moment. Militarization of space, including such programs as ballistic missile defense (BMD), increases the danger of destruction for the US, as for others. But that is nothing new: history provides many examples of policy choices that increase security threats, consciously. More ominous is the fact that the choices make some sense within prevailing value systems. Both topics merit some thought. Consider a few crucial stages of the Cold War arms race. At mid-twentieth century, the main threat to US security—then only a potential threat—was Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). Russia might have accepted a treaty banning these delivery systems, knowing that it was far behind. In his authoritative history of the arms race, McGeorge Bundy reports that he could find no record of any interest in pursuing this possibility.16 Recently released Russian archives yield some new understanding of these matters, though also leaving "unresolved mysteries," the bitterly anti-Communist Soviet scholar Adam Ulam observed. One such mystery is whether Stalin was serious in a March 1952 proposal that appeared to allow unification of Germany, as long as Germany did not join a military alliance directed against the Soviet Union—hardly an extreme condition a few years after Germany had, once again, virtually destroyed Russia. Washington "wasted little effort in flatly rejecting Moscow's initiative," Ulam commented, on grounds that "were embarrassingly unconvincing," leaving open "the basic question": "Was Stalin genuinely ready to sacrifice the newly created German Democratic Republic (GDR) on the altar of real democracy," with consequences for world peace that could have been enormous? Recent archival research surprised many scholars, Melvyn Leffler writes, by revealing that after Stalin's death, "[Lavrenti] Beria—the sinister, brutal head of the secret police— propos[ed] that the Kremlin offer the West a deal on the unification and neutralization of Germany," apparently agreeing "to sacrifice the East German communist regime to reduce EastWest tensions" and improve internal political and economic conditions in Russia. That such opportunities existed, and were squandered in favor of securing German participation in NATO, was strongly argued by the noted political analyst James Warburg right at the time, but the suggestion was ignored or ridiculed.17 The archives do, however, shed light on other Soviet proposals that were quickly rejected in favor of a risk-filled military buildup. They reveal that after Stalin's death, Khrushchev called for mutual reduction of offensive military forces and, when these initiatives were ignored by the Eisenhower administration, implemented them unilaterally over the objections of his own military command, in order to concentrate on economic growth. He believed that the US was using the arms race to destroy the far weaker Soviet economy, hoping "by that means to obtain its goals even without war." Kennedy planners knew of Khrushchev's additional unilateral steps to reduce Soviet offensive Noam Chomsky
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forces radically, and were well aware that the US was far ahead by any meaningful measure. Nevertheless, they chose to reject Khrushchev's call for reciprocity, preferring to carry out a massive conventional and nuclear buildup, thus driving the last nail into the coffin of "Khrushchev's agenda of restraining the Soviet military," Matthew Evangelista concludes, reviewing the archival records.18 Kenneth Waltz observes that the US "in the early 1960s undertook the largest strategic and conventional peace-time military buildup the world has yet seen ... even as Khrushchev was trying at once to carry through a major reduction in conventional forces and to follow a strategy of minimum deterrence, and we did so even though the balance of strategic weapons greatly favored the United States," predictably eliciting a Soviet reaction. Similar conclusions were drawn by the prominent strategic analysts Raymond Garthoff and William Kaufmann, who observed these processes from inside US intelligence and the Pentagon.19 The reaction of the Soviet military to the US buildup, influenced also by the demonstration of Soviet weakness in the Cuban Missile Crisis, effectively terminated Khrushchev's reformist project. Had it proceeded, it might have averted the social and economic stagnation in Russia from the 1960s on, and expedited the desperately needed internal changes that Gorbachev tried to implement, though too late. It might also have prevented the human catastrophe of the 1990s, as well as the destruction of Afghanistan and many other atrocities, not to speak of the serious danger of nuclear disaster as the arms race reached even more threatening dimensions. Throughout history, aggressive and provocative measures have been justified in terms of defense against merciless foes; in Kennedy's case, defense against what he termed "the monolithic and ruthless conspiracy" dedicated to world conquest. That is another claim that carries little or no information, because it is so predictable, whatever the circumstances, whoever may be the source. To comprehend the underlying logic, it is well to recall a doctrinal truism: it is conventional for controversial initiatives, particularly when hazardous, to be called "defense." Current programs are no exception. Missile defense is only a small component of much more ambitious programs for militarization of space, with the intent to achieve a monopoly on the use of space for offensive military purposes. The plans have been available in public documents of the US Space Command and other government agencies for some years.20 The projects outlined have been under development with varying intensity since the Reagan administration proposed the "Star Wars" (Strategic Defense Initiative) programs. SDI appears to have been largely an effort to "disarm BMD opponents"—by then a huge international antinuclear popular movement—by "stealing their language and cause," invoking the terms peace and disarmament, while proceeding to construct a more advanced offensive military system.21 The SDI program was in clear violation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty signed in 1972, according to Raymond Garthoff and others. The Reagan administration sought to suppress their objections. State Department legal adviser Judge Abraham Sofaer even threatened legal action to block Garthoff from publishing his book on the topic, a book that, in Garthoff's words, refutes the flagrant efforts by Paul Nitze and other Reaganite enthusiasts for SDI "to distort the historical record and undercut U.S. legal commitment." They were later to claim that SDI was instrumental in ending the Cold War by forcing the USSR into heavy defense spending— a claim that has little merit, according to Garthoff's well-informed account.22 A case can be made, however, that the Kennedy administration's rejection of opportunities for mutual reduction of armaments, and its general aggressiveness and arms buildup, may have had such an effect, at great cost and with the threat of far worse.
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Missile defense and related initiatives were expanded in the first months of the Bush administration. By 9-11, US military expenditures already surpassed those of the next fifteen nations combined, but the opportunity to exploit the fear and horror engendered by the terrorist crimes was too tempting to ignore, and military programs were sharply increased across the board, with little if any relation to terror. BMD is widely recognized to be a " 'Trojan horse for the real issue: the coming weaponization of space," with highly destructive offensive weapons placed in or guided from space.23 BMD itself is an offensive weapon. That is understood by close allies, and also by potential adversaries. Canadian military planners advised their government that the goal of BMD is "arguably more in order to preserve U.S./NATO freedom of action than because U.S. really fears [a] North Korean or Iranian threat."24 China's top arms control official was revealing nothing new when he observed that "once the United States believes it has both a strong spear and a strong shield, it could lead them to conclude that nobody can harm the United States and they can harm anyone they like anywhere in the world." China is well aware that it is a target of the radical nationalists designing policy in Washington, and presumably the prime intended recipient of the message in the National Security Strategy that no potential challenge to US hegemony will be tolerated. Chinese authorities are also surely aware that the US maintains the right of first use of nuclear weapons. And they know as well as US military analysts that "flights by U.S. EP-3 planes near China," such as the one shot down in early 2001, engendering a mini-crisis, "are not just for passive surveillance; the aircraft also collect information used to develop nuclear war plans."25 China's interpretation of BMD is shared by US strategic analysts, in virtually the same words: BMD "is not simply a shield but an enabler of U.S. action," a Rand Corporation study observed. Others agree. BMD "will facilitate the more effective application of U.S. military power abroad," Andrew Bacevich writes in the conservative National Interest: "by insulating the homeland from reprisal— albeit in a limited way—missile defense will underwrite the capacity and willingness of the United States to 'shape' the environment elsewhere." He cites approvingly the conclusion of Lawrence Kaplan in the liberal New Republic that "missile defense isn't really meant to protect America. It's a tool for global dominance." In Kaplan's own words, missile defense is "not about defense. It's about offense. And that's exactly why we need it."26 BMD will provide the US with "absolute freedom in using or threatening to use force in international relations" (China's complaint, which Kaplan quotes approvingly). It will "cement U.S. hegemony and make Americans 'masters of the world.' " The background assumption is the contemporary version of Wil-sonian idealism, a doctrine taken to be "so authoritative as to be virtually immune from challenge": America is the "historical vanguard" and must therefore maintain its global dominance and military supremacy forever and without challenge, for the benefit of all.27 It also follows that "the absolute freedom in using or threatening to use force" to be conferred on the US by BMD is a precious gift we offer to mankind. Who can fail to perceive the impeccable logic? It is well understood that BMD, even if technically feasible, must rely on satellite communication, and destroying satellites is far easier than shooting down missiles. Antisatellite weapons, banned by treaties that the Bush administration is dismantling, are readily available even to lesser powers. This paradox of the BMD program has been prominently discussed. But there is a possible solution, at least in some imagined world. Advocates of BMD place their faith in "full spectrum dominance," such overwhelming control of space (and the world in general) that even the poor man's weapons will be of no use to an adversary. That requires offensive space-based capacities, including immensely destructive weapons, "death stars" as they are sometimes called, possibly nuclearpowered, ready for launch with computer-controlled reaction. Such weapons systems greatly increase the risk of vast slaughter and devastation, if only because of what are called in the trade Noam Chomsky
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"normal accidents"—the unpredictable accidents to which complex systems are subject.28 Plans dated a few weeks after the National Security Strategy was announced take space systems to be "key to our nation's military effectiveness." The US must proceed from "control" of space to "ownership," which is to be permanent, in accord with the National Security Strategy. Ownership of space is to permit "instant engagement anywhere in the world" so that "attacks from space" can be integrated into combat plans. "A viable prompt global strike capability, whether nuclear or nonnuclear, will allow the US to rapidly strike high-payoff, difflcult-to-defeat targets from stand-off ranges" and "to provide warfighting commanders the ability to rapidly deny, delay, deceive, disrupt, destroy, exploit and neutralize targets in hours/minutes rather than weeks/days even when US and allied forces have a limited forward presence."29 These plans had already been outlined in a May 2002 classified Pentagon planning document, partially leaked, which called for a strategy of "forward deterrence" in which hypersonic missiles launched from space platforms would be able to carry out almost instant "unwarned attacks." Military analyst William Arkin comments that "no target on the planet or in space would be immune to American attack. The United States could strike without warning whenever and wherever a threat was perceived, and it would be protected by missile defenses" as well as internal security measures. Hypersonic drones would monitor and disrupt targets. The new weapons systems would permit the US to bomb selected enemies instantly from US bases, assisted by a host of advanced intelligence systems, including surveillance systems with the ability "to track, record and analyze the movement of every vehicle in a foreign city," leaving the world at the mercy of US attack at will, without warning or credible pretext—the operational significance of the term perceived threat.30 The plans have no remote historical parallel. Even more fanciful ideas are being explored by the Pentagon's advanced research agency, DARPA, including technologies to interface brain and machine, leading eventually, it is hoped, to brain-tobrain communication. That may be "the future of warfare," researchers argue, but meanwhile it follows DARPA's traditional commitment to advance R&D at the boundaries of understanding so as to create the basis for the economy of the future, under the cover of defense.31 The goals of militarization of space are far-reaching. The Space Command's Clinton-era brochure Vision for 2020 announced the primary goal prominently on the front cover: "dominating the space dimension of military operations to protect U.S. interests and investment." This is presented as the next phase of the historic task of military forces. Armies were needed "during the westward expansion of the continental United States"—in self-defense. Nations also built navies, the Space Command continues, "to protect and enhance their commercial interests." The next logical step is space forces to protect "U.S. national interests [military and commercial] and investments," including missile defense, as well as "space-based strike weapons" enabling "the application of precision force from, to, and through space." US space forces, however, will be unlike navies in earlier eras. This time there will be a sole hegemon. The British Navy could be countered by Germany, with consequences we need not discuss. But the US will remain immune—except to the development of WMD by rogue elements, and the narrowly circumscribed category of "terrorism" that is permitted to enter the canon: their terrorism against us and our clients. The need for full-spectrum dominance will increase as a result of the "globalization of the world economy," the Space Command explains. The reason is that "globalization" is expected to bring about "a widening between 'haves' and 'have-nots.' " Like the National Intelligence Council,32 military planners recognize that the "widening economic divide" that they too anticipate, with its "deepening economic stagnation, political instability, and cultural alienation," will lead to unrest Noam Chomsky
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and violence among the "have-nots," much of it directed against the US. That provides a further rationale for expanding offensive military capacities into space. Monopolizing this domain of warfare, the US must be ready to control disorder by "using space systems and planning for precision strike from space [as a] counter to the worldwide proliferation of WMD" by unruly elements, a likely consequence of the recommended programs, just as the "widening divide" is an anticipated consequence of the preferred form of "globalization." The Space Command could have usefully extended its analogy to the military forces of earlier years. These have played a prominent role in technological and industrial development throughout the modern era. That includes major advances in metallurgy, electronics, machine tools, and manufacturing processes, including the American system of mass production that astounded nineteenth-century competitors and set the stage for the automotive industry and other manufacturing achievements, based on many years of investment, R&D, and experience in weapons production within US Army arsenals. There was a qualitative leap forward after World War II, this time primarily in the US, as the military provided a cover for creation of the core of the modern high-tech economy: computers and electronics generally, telecommunications and the Internet, automation, lasers, the commercial aviation industry, and much else, now extending to nanotechnology, biotechnology, neuroengineering, and other new frontiers. Economic historians have pointed out that the technical problems of naval armament a century ago were roughly comparable to manufacture of space vehicles, and the enormous impact on the civilian economy might be duplicated as well, enhanced by the space militarization projects. One effect of incorporating national security exemptions in the mislabeled "free trade agreements" is that the leading industrial societies, primarily the US, can maintain the state sector on which the economy substantially relies to socialize cost and risk while privatizing profit. Others understand this as well. Retreating from his earlier critical stance regarding BMD, German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder observed that Germany has a "vital economic interest" in developing missile defense technology, and must be sure it is "not excluded" from technological and scientific work in the field. Participation in BMD programs is expected to strengthen the domestic industrial base generally in Europe. Similarly, the US BMD Organization advised Japanese officials in 1995 that Theater Missile Defense is "the last military business opportunity for this century." Japan is being drawn in not only to exploit its manufacturing expertise but also to deepen the commitment of the industrial world to the militarization of space, "locking the programs in," to borrow a standard phrase of policy-makers and analysts.33 Throughout history it has been recognized that such steps are dangerous. By now the danger has reached the level of a threat to human survival. But as observed earlier, it is rational to proceed nonetheless on the assumptions of the prevailing value system, which are deeply rooted in existing institutions. The basic principle is that hegemony is more important than survival. Hardly novel, the principle has been amply illustrated in the past half-century. For such reasons, the US has refused to join the rest of the world in reaffirming and strengthening the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 to reserve space for peaceful purposes. The concern for such action, articulated in UN resolutions calling for "Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space," is motivated by widespread recognition that Washington intends to breach this barrier, so far maintained. The US was joined in its abstention in 1999 by Israel, in 2000 by Micronesia as well. As noted earlier, immediately after it was learned that the world had barely been saved from a war that might have "destroyed the Northern Hemisphere," the Bush administration effectively vetoed yet another international effort to prevent the militarization of space. For the same reasons, Washington blocked Noam Chomsky
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negotiations at the UN Conference on Disarmament during the sessions that opened in January 2001, rejecting the call of Secretary-General Kofi Annan that member states overcome their lack of "political will" and work toward a comprehensive accord to bar militarization of space. "The U.S. remains the only one of the 66 member states to oppose launching formal negotiations on outer space," Reuters reported in February. In June, China again called for banning of weapons in outer space, but the US again blocked negotiations.34 Again, that makes good sense if hegemony, with its short-term benefits to elite interests, is ranked above survival in the scale of operative values, in accord with the historical standard for dominant states and other systems of concentrated power. Much the same can be said about the breakdown of efforts to ban chemical and biological weapons. That they pose significant threats is not seriously in doubt, but higher priorities stand in the way of banning them. In April 2001, arms control experts reported that international verification of the ban on chemical weapons would have to be sharply curtailed "because the United States and other key parties to the treaty [mentioning Russia] have not paid their way." A specialist at the Henry Stimson Center in Washington commented that the Clinton administration had "made a mockery" of the treaty by establishing "a separate set of rules for the United States," with unilateral exemptions. The US was the only country to insist on exemption from certain inspections and tests when the Senate ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention in 1997. The Bush administration decided to withdraw from negotiations to institute verification measures for the 1972 Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention, effectively terminating them. The US had previously "worked to limit the scope of the visits by foreign inspectors in order to protect American pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, which dominate the worldwide industry and are concerned with protecting their trade secrets." The Bush administration proceeded to reject any form of verification on the grounds that mechanisms would be ineffective and "would simply raise the risk to legitimate United States activities," a position condemned as "completely unacceptable" by a senior European diplomat. Shortly after, other likely motives surfaced beyond protecting US corporate interests, when it was revealed that the US "has three clandestine defensive projects that mimic a complete bioweapons program," violating the spirit and perhaps the letter of the verification protocols that the US later officially rejected. Even before, Washington had argued that "access to American bio-defense installations" might reveal military secrets—which is the purpose of enforcement mechanisms.35 Bioweapons specialists express concerns that the US "may have rejected the bioweapons protocol because it is committed to continuing and expanding its secret programs," in violation of treaties, pointing out that "Washington appears to have had no interest in developing a protocol acceptable to the pharmaceutical industry." Among the suspected plans is genetic engineering of vaccineresistant anthrax, which the Russians may already have developed. The US "appears to have embarked on a largely classified study, across several agencies, of biotech applications for the development of new bioweapons," apparently ignoring treaties. Therefore "the rest of the world will be obliged to follow suit," perhaps sparking "a global bioweapons arms race." Proliferation of these technologies would also "dramatically increase the chances that terrorists would become capable of mass-casualty attacks using chemical or bioweapons," a threat also discussed in the 2002 HartRudman report on terrorist threats to the United States.36
The Bush administration also announced that it "no longer supports] some of the Article VI conclusions" of the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the major international agreement on control of nuclear weapons, which has had some success, though far from complete: Noam Chomsky
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in particular, the five major nuclear powers have not abided by their commitments. Article VI is the primary element of the NPT applying to the nuclear powers: it commits them to "negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament." The Bush administration went on to declare its opposition to the ABM Treaty (since revoked) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. It also undermined the first UN conference attempting to control the lethal international black market in small arms, while Bush point man John Bolton informed the conference that the US opposed "the promotion of international advocacy activity by international or nongovernmental organizations."37 It is not difficult to detect the underlying logic or to perceive the likely consequences. As it announced its imperial grand strategy in September 2002, the Bush administration moved to undermine continuing efforts to add enforcement mechanisms to the Biological Weapons Convention against germ warfare, preventing any further discussions for four years, and shortly after effectively barred reaffirmation of the 1925 Geneva Protocol prohibiting the use of poisonous gases and bacteriological methods of warfare.38 To move to another domain, the Bush administration has been widely criticized for undermining the Kyoto Protocol on grounds that to conform would harm the US economy. The criticisms are in a sense odd, because the decision is not irrational within the frame-work of existing ideology. We are instructed daily to be firm believers in neoclassical markets, in which isolated individuals are rational wealth maximizers. If distortions are eliminated, the market should respond perfectly to their "votes," expressed in dollars or some counterpart. The value of a person's interests is measured the same way. In particular, the interests of those with no votes are valued at zero: future generations, for example. It is therefore rational to destroy the possibility for decent survival for our grandchildren, if by so doing we can maximize our own "wealth"—which means a particular perception of self-interest constructed by vast industries devoted to implanting and reinforcing it. The threats to survival are currently being enhanced by dedicated efforts not only to weaken the institutional structures that have been developed to mitigate the harsh consequences of market fundamentalism, but also to undermine the culture of sympathy and solidarity that sustains these institutions. All of this is another prescription for disaster, perhaps in the not very distant future. But again, it has a certain rationality within prevailing structures of doctrine and institutions. It would be a great error to conclude that the prospects are uniformly bleak. Far from it. One very promising development is the slow evolution of a human rights culture among the general population, a tendency that accelerated in the 1960s, when popular activism had a notable civilizing effect in many domains, extending significantly in the years that followed. One encouraging feature has been a greatly heightened concern for civil and human rights, including rights of minorities, women, and future generations, the latter the driving concern of the environmental movement, which has become a powerful force. For the first time in American history, there was some willingness to look honestly at the conquest of the national territory and the fate of its inhabitants. The solidarity movements that developed in mainstream America in the 1980s, concerning Central America in particular, broke new ground in the history of imperialism; never before had substantial numbers of people from the imperial society gone to live with the victims of vicious attack to help them and offer some measure of protection. The international solidarity organizations that evolved from these roots now function very effectively in many parts of the world, arousing fear and anger in repressive states and sometimes exposing participants to serious danger, even death.39 The global justice movements that have since taken shape, meeting at the World Social Forum annually, are an entirely new and unprecedented phenomenon in character and scale. The planet's "second superpower," which could no longer be ignored in early 2003, has deep roots in these Noam Chomsky
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developments, and considerable promise. Over the course of modern history, there have been significant gains in human rights and democratic control of some sectors of life. These have rarely been the gift of enlightened leaders. They have typically been imposed on states and other power centers by popular struggle. An optimist might hold, perhaps realistically, that history reveals a deepening appreciation for human rights, as well as a broadening of their range—not without sharp reversals, but the general tendency seems real. The issues are very much alive today. The harmful effects of the corporate globalization project have led to mass popular protest and activism in the South, later joined by major sectors of the rich industrial societies, hence becoming harder to ignore. For the first time, concrete alliances have been taking shape at the grassroots level. These are impressive developments, rich in opportunity. And they have had effects, in rhetorical and sometimes policy changes. There has been at least a restraining influence on state violence, though nothing like the "human rights revolution" in state practice that has been proclaimed by intellectual opinion in the West. These various developments could prove very important if momentum can be sustained in ways that deepen the emerging global bonds of sympathy and solidarity. It is fair to say, I think, that the future of our endangered species may be determined in no small measure by how these popular forces evolve. One can discern two trajectories in current history: one aiming toward hegemony, acting rationally within a lunatic doctrinal framework as it threatens survival; the other dedicated to the belief that "another world is possible," in the words that animate the World Social Forum, challenging the reigning ideological system and seeking to create constructive alternatives of thought, action, and institutions. Which trajectory will dominate, no one can foretell. The pattern is familiar throughout history; a crucial difference today is that the stakes are far higher. Bertrand Russell once expressed some somber thoughts about world peace: After ages during which the earth produced harmless trilobites and butterflies, evolution progressed to the point at which it has generated Neros, Genghis Khans, and Hitlers. This, however, I believe is a passing nightmare; in time the earth will become again incapable of supporting life, and peace will return.40 No doubt the projection is accurate on some dimension beyond our realistic contemplation. What matters is whether we can awaken ourselves from the nightmare before it becomes all-consuming, and bring a measure of peace and justice and hope to the world that is, right now, within the reach of our opportunity and our will.
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NOTES TO CHAPTER 1 1 Ernst Mayr, “Can SETI Succeed? Not Likely,” Bioastronomy News 7, no. 3 (1995). Online at: http://www.hcc.hawaii.edu/~pine/mayr.htm.
2 Donald Kennedy, “The Climate Divide,” Science 299, no. 5614 (2003): p. 1813. 3 Howard LaFranchi, “At the UN, It’s Not Just about Iraq,” Christian Science Monitor, 30 October 2002, p. 1.
4 Patrick E. Tyler, “A New Power in the Streets,” New York Times, 17 February 2003, sec. A, p. 1.
5 For sources on Wilsonian idealism and seventeenth century, see my Deterring Democracy (London and New York: Verso, 1991; extended edition, New York: Hill and Wang, 1992), chapter 12, and my Profit over People: Neoliberalism and Global Order (New York: Seven Stories Press, 1999), chapter 2. For a more extensive discussion and contemporary scholarly sources, see my “Consent without Consent: Reflections on the Theory and Practice of Democracy,” Cleveland State Law Review 44, no. 4 (1996): pp. 415–37. Minor changes (punctuation, etc.) are introduced here for ease of reading. 6 Cited by David S. Foglesong, America’s Secret War against Bolshevism: U.S. Intervention in the Russian Civil War, 1917–1920 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1995), p. 28. 7 Andrew J. Bacevich, American Empire: The Realities and Consequences of U.S. Diplomacy (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2003), pp. 200ff.
8 Michel Crozier, Samuel P. Huntington, and Joji Watanuki, The Crisis of Democracy: Report on the Governability of Democracies to the Trilateral Commission (New York: New York University Press, 1975). 9 Randal Marlin, Propaganda and the Ethics of Persuasion (Peterborough, Ont., and Orchard Park, N.Y.: Broadview Press, 2002).
10 For discussion of this vast disinformation campaign, see my Culture of Terrorism (Boston: South End Press, 1988) and my Necessary Illusions: Thought Control in Democratic Societies (Boston: South End Press, 1989), which draw particularly on the important but mostly neglected exposés by Alfonso Chardy of the Miami Herald and later official sources. 11 On the narrow limits of permitted discussion, see my Necessary Illusions, op. cit. For case studies over a wider range, see Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky, Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media, updated ed. (New York: Pantheon Books, 2002).
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12 Latin American Documentation, Torture in Latin America (Lima, Peru: LADOC, 1987). Julio Godoy, The Nation 250, no. 9 (5 March 1990): p. 310.
13 Juan Hernández Pico, Envío (Managua, Nicaragua), March 1994. Journal online at: http://www.envio.org.ni.
NOTES TO CHAPTER 2 1 White House, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, 17 September 2002. http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.html
2 G. John Ikenberry, “America’s Imperial Ambition,” Foreign Affairs 81, no. 5
(September–October 2002): pp. 44ff. 3 On this crucial distinction, see Carl Kaysen et al., War with Iraq: Costs, Consequences, and Alternatives (Cambridge: American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Committee on International Security Studies, 2002). Online at: http://www.amacad.org/publications/monographs/ War_with_Iraq.pdf.
4 Steven R. Weisman, “Pre-emption: Idea with a Lineage Whose Time Has Come,” New York Times, Sunday, 23 March 2003, sec. B, p. 1.
5 Arthur Schlesinger Jr., “Good Foreign Policy a Casualty of War,” Los Angeles Times, Sunday, 23 March 2003, sec. M, p. 1.
6 Richard Falk, “Resisting the Global Domination Project,” interview with Zia Mian and Smitu Kothari, Frontline (India) 20, no. 8 (12 April 2003). Online at: http://www.flonnet.com/fl2008/stories/20030425004002300.htm.
7 Michael J. Glennon, “Why the Security Council Failed,” Foreign Affairs 82, no. 3 (May–June 2003): pp. 16ff. (online at: http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20030501faessay11217/michael-j-glennon/why-the-securitycouncil-failed.html), and “The New Interventionism: The Search for a Just International Law,” Foreign Affairs 78, no. 3 (May–June 1999): pp. 2ff.
8 Dana Milbank, “Bush Remarks Confirm Shift in Justification for War,” Washington Post, 1 June 2003, sec. A, p. 18. Guy Dinmore, James Harding, and Cathy Newman, “Iraqi Arms Finds Not Likely, Says US Official,” Financial Times (London), 3 May 2003, sec. 1, p. 1.
9 Dean Acheson, Proceedings of the American Society of International Law, nos. 13 and 14 (1963). Abraham D. Sofaer, “The United States and the World Court,” US Department of State, Current Policy, no. 769 (December 1985). Acheson was referring specifically to US economic war, but he surely knew about the international terrorism. Noam Chomsky
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10 Bill Clinton, address to the United Nations, 27 September 1993. Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen, Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, May 1997), Section III: Defense Strategy. Online at: http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/qdr/sec3.html. See also William S. Cohen, Annual Report to the President and Congress (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1999). Online at: http://www.defenselink.mil/execsec/adr1999/chap1.html.
11 Memorandum of the War and Peace Studies Project of the Council on Foreign Relations, with State Department participation, 19 October 1940; Laurence H. Shoup and William Minter, Imperial Brain Trust: The Council on Foreign Relations and United States Foreign Policy (New York: Monthly Review Press, 1977): pp. 130ff. 12 See Bacevich, American Empire, op. cit., for unusually strong claims in this regard. 13 George W. Bush, State of the Union address, transcribed in the New York Times, 29 January 2003, sec. A, p. 12.
14 Condoleezza Rice, interview by Wolf Blitzer, Late Edition, CNN, 8 September 2002. Online at: http://www.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/09/08/iraq.debate/. Scott Peterson , “In War, Some Facts Less Factual,” Christian Science Monitor, 6 September 2002, World section, p. 1. The 1990 claims, based on alleged satellite images, were investigated by the St. Petersburg (Fla.) Times. Experts who analyzed photos from commercial satellites found nothing. Inquiries were rebuffed, and still are. For independent confirmation, see Peter D. Zimmerman, “The Bush Deceit,” Washington Post, 14 August 2003, sec. A, p. 19.
15 Christian Science Monitor–TIPP poll: Howard LaFranchi, “For Bush, Rising Bar on Iraq War,” Christian Science Monitor, 14 January 2003, USA section, p. 1. Linda Feldmann, “The Impact of Bush Linking 9/11 and Iraq,” Christian Science Monitor, 14 March 2003, USA section, p. 2. Jim Rutenberg and Robin Toner, “Critics of Iraq War Say Lack of Scrutiny Helped Administration to Press Its Case,” New York Times, 22 March 2003, sec. B, p. 10.
16 Edward Alden, “Americans Leave ‘Vietnam Syndrome’ Behind to Rally Behind President,” Financial Times (London), 21 March 2003, War in Iraq section, p. 2. Anatol Lieven, “A Trap of Their Own Making,” London Review of Books 25, no. 9 (8 May 2003). Online at: http://www.ceip.org/files/Publications/2003-05-08-lievenlrb.asp?p=40&from=pubdate
17 Elisabeth Bumiller, “Cold Truths behind Pomp,” New York Times, 2 May 2003, sec. A, p. 1. “Transcript of President Bush’s Remarks on the End of Major Combat in Iraq,” New York Times, 2 May 2003, sec. A, p. 16.
18 Jason Burke, “Focus: The Return of Terror,” Observer (London), Sunday, 18 May 2003, p. 17.
19 News release, Program on International Policy Attitudes (College Park: University of Maryland), 4 June 2003. Online at: http://www.pipa.org/publist.html.
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20 Jeanne Cummings and Greg Hite, “Bush Says War Ending, Looks to ’04,” Wall Street Journal, 2 May 2003, sec. A, p. 4. Francis X. Clines, “Karl Rove’s Campaign Strategy Seems Evident: It’s the Terror, Stupid,” New York Times, 10 May 2003, sec. A, p. 20; Rove’s emphasis.
21 David E. Sanger and Steven R. Weisman, “Bush’s Aides Envision New Influence in Region,” New York Times, 10 April 2003, sec. B, p. 11. Roger Owen, “War by Example,” Al-Ahram Weekly, 3 April 2003. Online at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2003/632/op57.htm.
22 “War in Iraq: How the Die Was Cast before Transatlantic Diplomacy Failed,” Comment & Analysis, Financial Times (London), 27 May 2003, p. 15.
23 International Court of Justice (ICJ), Corfu Channel Case (Merits), judgment of 9 April 1949, p. 35.
24 See my New Military Humanism: Lessons from Kosovo (Monroe, Maine: Common Courage Press, 1999). 25 See my New Generation Draws the Line: Kosovo, East Timor, and the Standards of the West (London and New York: Verso, 2000), pp. 4ff. Statement by Non-Aligned Movement, Kuala Lumpur, 25 February 2003 (BBC World Monitoring, 26 February 2003). Online at: http://www.un.int/malaysia/NAM/STiraq.html.
26 Aryeh Dayan, “‘One Day in Five, the IDF Attempts Assassination,’” Ha’aretz, 21 May 2003.
27 Amir Oren, “Who’s the Boss?,” Ha’aretz, 29 November 2002.
28 Suzanne Nossel, “Battle Hymn of the Democrats,” Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 27, no. 1 (winter–spring 2003): pp. 71–82. Online at: http://fletcher.tufts.edu/forum/Winter%202003/NosselFA.pdf.
29 Richard Wilson, “A Visit to the Bombed Nuclear Reactor at Tuwaitha, Iraq,” Nature 302, no. 5907 (31 March– 6 April 1983): pp. 373–76. Michael Jansen, Middle East International 691 (10 January 2003). Imad Khadduri, Uncritical Mass, memoirs (manuscript), 2003. Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (New York: W. W. Norton, 1995), pp. 18–19.
30 Neely Tucker, “Detainees Seek Access to Courts,” Washington Post, 3 December 2002, sec. A, p. 22. Neil A. Lewis, “Detention Upheld in Combatant Case,” New York Times, 9 January 2003, sec. A, p. 1.
31 Ed Vulliamy, “Red Cross Denied Access to PoWs,” Observer (London), Sunday, 25 May 2003, p. 20.
32 See p. 200 of Hegemony or Survival.
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33 Jack M. Balkin, “A Dreadful Act II: Secret Proposals in Ashcroft’s Anti-Terror War Strike Yet Another Blow at Fundamental Rights,” Los Angeles Times, 13 February 2003, sec. B, p. 23. Nat Hentoff, “Revenge of the Patriot Act,” Progressive 67, no. 4 (April 2003): p. 11.
34 Winston Churchill cited by A.W. Brian Simpson, Human Rights and the End of Empire: Britain and the Genesis of the European Convention (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2001): p. 55.
35 Kaysen et al., War with Iraq, op. cit. Michael Krepon, “Dominators Rule,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59, no. 1 (January–February 2003): pp. 55–60.
36 John Steinbruner and Jeffrey Lewis, “The Unsettled Legacy of the Cold War,” Daedalus 131, no. 4 (fall 2002): pp. 5–10. 37 See my Year 501: The Conquest Continues (Boston: South End Press, 1993), chapter 1. 38 James Morgan, “Rip van Winkle’s New World Order,” Financial Times (London), 25 April 1992, p. 1, referring to G-7, the IMF, GATT, and other institutions of “the new imperial age.” Guy de Jonquières, “Power Elite at Davos Set to Vie with Protesters for Attention,” Financial Times (London), International Economy section, p. 14. Fukuyama cited by Mark Curtis, The Ambiguities of Power: British Foreign Policy since 1945 (London and Atlantic Highlands, N.J.: Zed Books, 1995), p. 183.
39 Bush and Baker cited by Sam Husseini, “Why So Long for Iraq to Comply?,” Counterpunch, 8 March 2003. Online at: http://www.counterpunch.org/husseini03082003.html. Dilip Hiro, Iraq: In the Eye of the Storm (New York: Thunder’s Mouth Press/Nation Books, 2002): pp. 102ff.
40 Edward C. Luck, “Making the World Safe for Hypocrisy,” New York Times, 22 March 2003, sec. A, p. 11.
41 Elisabeth Bumiller and Carl Hulse, “Bush Will Use Congress Vote to Press U.N.,” New York Times, 12 October 2002, sec. A, p. 1. Colin Powell cited by Julia Preston, “U.S. Said to Offer France Final Compromise to End Iraq Resolution Impasse,” New York Times, 18 October 2002, sec. A, p. 10. David E. Sanger with Julia Preston, “President Warns Hussein to Heed a Call to Disarm,” New York Times, 8 November 2002, sec. A, p. 1. Andrew Card cited in Doug Saunders, with reports from Associated Press (AP) and Reuters, “Iraq Seen As Likely to Accept Resolution,” Toronto Globe and Mail, 11 November 2002, sec. A, p. 8.
42 Mark Turner and Roula Khalaf, “Powell ‘Not Lobbying for Second Resolution,’” Financial Times (London), 5 February 2003, p. 9.
43 David E. Sanger and Warren Hoge, “Bush and 2 Allies Seem Set for War to Depose Hussein,” New York Times, 17 March 2003, sec. A, p. 1. Michael R. Gordon, “Allies Will Move In, Even if Saddam Hussein Moves Out,” New York Times, 18 March 2003, sec. A, p. 16.
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44 “Excerpts from Bush’s News Conference on Iraq and Likelihood of War,” New York Times, 7 March 2003, sec. A, p. 12. Felicity Barringer and David E. Sanger, “U.S. Says Hussein Must Cede Power to Head Off War,” New York Times, 1 March 2003, sec. A, p. 1.
45 Alison Mitchell and David E. Sanger, “Bush to Put Case for Action in Iraq to Key Lawmakers,” New York Times, 4 September 2002, sec. A, p. 1. Fleischer cited by Christopher Adams and Mark Huband, “US Engineers Draw Another Blank over Suspected Weapons Site,” Financial Times (London), 12 April 2003, War in Iraq section, p. 5. Jack Straw cited by David E. Sanger with Felicity Barringer, “President Readies U.S. for Prospect of Imminent War,” New York Times, 7 March 2003, sec. A, p. 1.
46 “In Powell’s Words: Saddam Hussein Remains Guilty,” New York Times, 6 March 2003, sec. A, p. 17. Steven R. Weisman, “U.S. Lists 3 Chechen Groups as Terrorist and Freezes Assets,” New York Times, 1 March 2003, sec. A, p. 11.
47 Condoleezza Rice, “Campaign 2000: Promoting the National Interest,” Foreign Affairs 79, no. 1 (January– February 2000): pp. 45ff., cited by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, “An Unnecessary War,” Foreign Policy 134 (January–February 2003): pp. 50–59. Online at: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/issue_janfeb_2003/walts.html. Note that 9-11 had no effect on these risk assessments.
48 Dafna Linzer, AP, “Backers of US Hope for Payoff,” Boston Globe, 24 February 2003.
49 Guy Dinmore and Mark Turner, “US Uses Economic Muscle to Persuade Waverers to Say Yes,” Financial Times (London), 12 February 2003, p. 6. Jeanne Cummings and Robert Block, “U.S. Bids Against France for Votes in U.N.,” Wall Street Journal, 26 February 2003, sec. A, p. 4.
50 Geneive Abdo, “US Offers Incentives for Backing on Iraq,” Boston Globe, 13 February 2003, sec. A, p. 1. Eric Lichtblau, “Charity Leader Accepts a Deal in a Terror Case,” New York Times, 11 February 2003, sec. A, p. 1.
51 Richard Boudreaux and John Hendren, “U.S. Drops Its Bid to Base Troops in Turkey,” Los Angeles Times, 15 March 2003, sec. 1, p. 5.
52 Neil King Jr. and Jess Bravin, “U.S. May Spurn U.N. Iraq Sanctions,” Wall Street Journal, 5 May 2003, sec. A, p. 3. For US attitudes quoted here, see poll by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (College Park: University of Maryland), 29 April 2003, “Americans on America’s Role in the World After the Iraq War,” a PIPA/Knowledge Networks Poll. Online at: http://www.pipa.org/OnlineReports/PostWarIraq/report_april29.pdf. For Iraqi attitudes, see Susannah Sirkin, “Baghdad Bombing: What Should We Do Now?,” New York Times, 21 August 2003, sec. A, p. 24. Sirkin, deputy director of Physicians for Human Rights (PHR), cites a PHR poll finding that more than 85 percent wanted the UN to “play the lead role.” Poll findings online at: http://www.phrusa.org/research/iraq/release_091803.html. A later Gallup poll found that Baghdad residents held France and its President Jacques Chirac “in higher Noam Chomsky
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regard” than Bush or Blair: favorability rating was Chirac 42 percent, Bush 29 percent, Blair 20 percent. See Patrick E. Tyler, “In a Poll, Baghdad Residents Call Freedom Worth the Price,” New York Times, 24 September 2003, sec. A, p. 16. The clear implication, unstated, is that although they were naturally delighted to be rid of Saddam Hussein and the murderous sanctions regime (unmentioned), they continued to oppose the invasion.
53 G. John Ikenberry, “America’s Imperial Ambition,” op. cit. Anatol Lieven, “The Push for War,” London Review of Books 24, no. 19 (3 October 2002). Online at: http://www.lrb.co.uk/v24/n19/liev01_.html.
54 Samuel P. Huntington, “The Lonely Superpower,” Foreign Affairs 78, no. 2 (March–April 1999): pp. 35ff. Robert Jervis, “Weapons Without Purpose? Nuclear Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era,” Foreign Affairs 80, no. 4 (July–August 2001): pp. 143ff. Jervis online at: http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20010701fareviewessay5002/robert-jervis/weapons-without-purposenuclear-strategy-in-the-post-cold-war-era.html.
55 Kenneth Waltz in Ken Booth and Tim Dunne, eds., Worlds in Collision: Terror and the Future of Global Order (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002). Steven Miller in Kaysen et al., War with Iraq, op. cit. Jack Snyder, “Imperial Temptations,” National Interest, no. 71 (spring 2003): pp. 29–40. Selig S. Harrison, interview by Felicia R. Lee, “Q&A: Finding a Way Out with North Korea,” New York Times, 7 June 2003, sec. B, p. 11.
56 Bernard B. Fall, Last Reflections on a War (Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday, 1967). 57 See my For Reasons of State (New York: Pantheon Books, 1973; New Press 2003), p. 25, for a review of the final material in the Pentagon Papers, which ends at this point. 58 Maureen Dowd, “Bush Moves to Control War’s Endgame,” New York Times, 23 February 1991, sec. 1, p. 1.
59 World Economic Forum, “Declining Public Trust Foremost a Leadership Problem,” news release (World Economic Forum, Geneva, Switzerland), 14 January 2003. Online at: http://www.weforum.org/site/homepublic.nsf/Content/Declining+Public+Trust+Foremost+a+Leadershi p+Problem. Guy de Jonquières, “US Leaders Score 27% in Global Trust Poll,” Financial Times (London), 15 January 2003, International Economy and the Americas section, p. 3.
60 Alan Cowell, “World Forum, Back at Davos, Faces Tough Economic Skiing,” New York Times, 23 January 2003, sec. A, p. 3. Mark Landler, “U.S. Role in the World Dominates Economic Talks as Brazilian Clamors to Be Heard,” New York Times, 24 January 2003, sec. A, p. 8. Marc Champion, David Cloud, and Carla Anne Robbins, “Tough Message: At Davos, Powell Pushes Back Against Resistance Over Iraq,” Wall Street Journal, 27 January 2003, sec. A, p. 1.
61 “Powell on Iraq,” op. cit. 62 Kaysen et al., War with Iraq, op. cit.
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63 Hans von Sponeck, “Go On, Call Bush’s Bluff,” Guardian (London), 22 July 2002, Leader, p. 13.
64 Ken Warn, “Canada Fears ‘Biggest Risk to World Peace’ on Its Doorstep,” Financial Times (London), 21 January 2003, Americas section, p. 2. For international polls, see chapter 5 of Hegemony or Survival.
65 Glenn Kessler and Mike Allen, “The Greater Threat? Around the Globe, People See Bush—Not Hussein—as the Real Enemy,” Washington Post, National Weekly edition, March 3–9, 2003, cover story. Fareed Zakaria, “The Arrogant Empire,” Newsweek 141, no. 12 (24 March 2003): pp. 19ff., US edition, cover story. Online at: http://www.fareedzakaria.com/articles/newsweek/032403.html.
66 See chapter 1, note 6, op. cit. Woodrow Wilson, “Democracy and Efficiency,” Atlantic Monthly 87, no. 521 (March 1901): pp. 289–99, cited by Ido Oren, Our Enemies and US: America’s Rivalries and the Making of Political Science (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2003): p. 42. Wilson online at: http://cdl.library.cornell.edu/cgi-bin/moa/moa-cgi?notisid=ABK2934-0087-44.
67 Bacevich, American Empire, op. cit., pp. 215ff. His emphasis.
68 John Stuart Mill. See p. 44–45 of Hegemony or Survival. Britain’s attitude toward the nobility of its successor was a bit different; see p. 149 of Hegemony or Survival.
69 Andrew J. Bacevich, “Culture, Globalization, and U.S. Foreign Policy,” review of Many Globalizations: Cultural Diversity in the Contemporary World, edited by Peter L. Berger and Samuel P. Huntington, and Culture Matters: How Values Shape Human Progress, edited by Lawrence E. Harrison and Samuel P. Huntington, World Policy Journal 19, no. 3 (fall 2002): pp. 77–82. Online at: http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/articles/wpj02-3/bacevich.html.
70 Michael J. Glennon, “Terrorism and ‘Intentional Ignorance,’” Christian Science Monitor, 20 March 1986, p. 18.
71 Sebastian Mallaby, “Uneasy Partners,” review of The Clash: A History Of U.S.-Japan Relations, by Walter LaFeber, and Altered States: The United States and Japan Since the Occupation, by Michael Schaller, New York Times, 21 September 1997, sec. 7 (Book Review), p. 34. Michael Mandelbaum, The Ideas That Conquered the World: Peace, Democracy, and Free Markets in the Twenty-First Century (New York: Public Affairs, 2002), p. 95. Senior administration policymaker cited by Thomas L. Friedman, “A New U.S. Problem: Freely Elected Tyrants,” New York Times, 12 January 1992, sec. 4, p. 3.
72 Max Boot, “A War for Oil? Not This Time,” New York Times, 13 February 2003, sec. A, p. 41. Robert Kagan, “Politicians with Guts,” Washington Post, National Weekly Edition, 10 February 2003; Washington Post, 31 January 2003, sec. A, p. 27.
73 On Mill’s essay and the circumstances in which it was written, see my Peering into the Abyss of the Future (New Delhi: Institute of Social Sciences, 2002). Britain’s crimes in India and China shocked many Noam Chomsky
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Englishmen, including classical liberals like Richard Cobden. See chapter 7, note 52, of Hegemony or Survival.
74 Henri Alleg et al., La Guerre d’Algérie (Paris: Temps actuels, 1981), cited in Youcef Bedjaoui, Abbas Aroua, and Meziane Ait-Larbi, eds., An Inquiry into the Algerian Massacres (Geneva, Switzerland: Hoggar, 1999). 75 Walter LaFeber, Inevitable Revolutions: The United States in Central America (New York: Norton, 1983): pp. 50ff., 75ff.
76 Mohammad-Mahmoud Mohamedou, Iraq and the Second Gulf War: State Building and Regime Security (San Francisco: Austin & Winfield, 1998): p. 123.
77 David F. Schmitz, Thank God They’re on Our Side: The United States and Right-Wing Dictatorships, 1921–1965 (Chapel Hill, N.C.: University of North Carolina Press, 1999). “Japan Envisions a ‘New Order’ in Asia, 1938,” reprinted in Dennis Merrill and Thomas G. Paterson, eds., Major Problems in American Foreign Relations: Documents and Essays, vol. 2, Since 1914, 5th ed. (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2000).
78 Soviet lawyers: see Sean D. Murphy, Humanitarian Intervention: The United Nations in an Evolving World Order (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1996). Kennedy administration: see my Rethinking Camelot: JFK, the Vietnam War, and U.S. Political Culture (Boston: South End Press, 1993).
79 Ivan Maisky cited in Vladimir O. Pechatnov, “Pechatnov’s Interpretation of Ivan Maisky’s Report,” excerpts of Cold War International History Project Working Paper Series, no. 13, The Big Three After World War II: New Documents on Soviet Thinking about Post War Relations with the United States and Great Britain (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, May 1995). Online at: http://wwics.si.edu/topics/pubs/ACF17F.PDF .
80 Cited by LaFeber, Inevitable Revolutions, op. cit. Robert W. Tucker, “Oil: The Issue of American Intervention,” Commentary 59, no. 1 (January 1975): pp. 21–31. 81 Cited by Mexican historian José Fuentes Mares in Cecil Robinson, ed. and trans., The View from Chapultepec: Mexican Writers on the Mexican-American War (Tucson: University of Arizona Press, 1989): p. 160. 82 Cited by William Stivers, Supremacy and Oil: Iraq, Turkey, and the Anglo-American World Order, 1918–1930 (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1982).
83 Hans J. Morgenthau, “Reflections on the End of the Republic,” New York Review of Books 15, no. 5 (24 September 1970).
84 See regular Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International reports and, among many publications, Javier Noam Chomsky
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Giraldo, Colombia: The Genocidal Democracy (Monroe, Maine: Common Courage Press, 1996), and Garry M. Leech, Killing Peace: Colombia’s Conflict and the Failure of U.S. Intervention (New York: Information Network of the Americas [INOTA], 2002).
NOTES TO CHAPTER 3 1 Michael Wines, “Two Views of Inhumanity Split the World, Even in Victory,” New York Times, Sunday, 13 June 1999, sec. 4, p. 1. Václav Havel, “Kosovo and the End of the Nation-State,” New York Review of Books 46, no. 10 (10 June 1999). David Fromkin, Kosovo Crossing: American Ideals Meet Reality on the Balkan Battlefields (New York: Free Press, 1999). For a sample of the rhetoric, see my New Military Humanism, op. cit.
2 Charles Tilly, Coercion, Capital, and European States, AD 990–1990 (Cambridge: Basil Blackwell, 1993).
3 C. J. Chivers, “Uprooted Iraqis See War as Path to Lost Homes,” New York Times, 5 December 2002, sec. A, p. 1.
4 In early August, the bishop’s office in East Timor estimated 3,000 to 5,000 deaths through 1999. Historian John Taylor estimates 5,000 to 6,000 dead before the August 30 referendum, which set off the final paroxysm. See John G. Taylor, East Timor: The Price of Freedom (New York: Zed Books, 1999).
5 On Clinton’s sudden conversion between September 8 and 11, 1999, see Joseph Nevins, “First the Butchery, Then the Flowers: Clinton and Holbrooke in East Timor,” Counterpunch 9, no. 10 (16–31 May 2002). Online at: http://www.etan.org/et2002b/june/23-30/00first.htm.
6 The Australian-led UN peacekeeping force entered as the Indonesian army was withdrawing. An even earlier dispatch of forces would have been an “intervention” only in the sense that US-British forces “intervened” in France on D-Day.
7 Fromkin, Kosovo Crossing, op. cit.
8 Yaroslav Trofimov, “Uneasy Peace: U.N.’s Long Stay, Power in Kosovo Stir Resentment,” Wall Street Journal, 3 January 2003, sec. A, p. 1.
9 Roland Paris, “Kosovo and the Metaphor War,” Political Science Quarterly 177, no. 3 (fall 2002): pp. 423–51. 10 Michael Mandelbaum, The Ideas That Conquered the World, op. cit., p. 193. 11 Timothy Garton Ash, “Imagine No America,” Guardian (London), 19 September 2002, p. 21.
12 Noam Chomsky
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For Robertson quotes and discussion, see my New Generation Draws the Line, op. cit., pp. 106–07. Statesment of Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Robin Cook, House of Commons, 18 January 1999, Column 567. Online at: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199899/cmhansrd/vo990118/debtext/90118-06.htm .
13 Nicholas J. Wheeler, Saving Strangers: Humanitarian Intervention in International Society (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), pp. 34, 265ff.
14 Wesley K. Clark, Waging Modern War: Bosnia, Kosovo, and the Future of Combat (New York: Public Affairs, 2001): p. 171. Michael Ignatieff, “Chains of Command,” review of Waging Modern War, by Wesley Clark, New York Review of Books 48, no. 12 (19 July 2001).
15 Bacevich, American Empire, op. cit.
16 Isa Blumi, “The Islamist Challenge in Kosova,” Current History 102, no. 662 (March 2003): pp. 124–128.
17 Anne-Marie Slaughter, “Good Reasons for Going Around the U.N.,” New York Times, 18 March 2003, sec. A, p. 33.
18 Charles Bergquist in Bergquist, Ricardo Peñaranda, and Gonzalo Sánchez, eds., Violence in Colombia, 1990– 2000: Waging War and Negotiating Peace (Wilmington, Del.: Scholarly Resources Books, 2001).
19 Anthony Lewis, “The Challenge of Global Justice Now,” Daedalus 132, no. 1 (winter 2003): pp. 5–9. Timorese were regarded as “citizens of Indonesia” by the US.
20 “Tempering Turkey,” editorial, Boston Globe, 6 March 2003, sec. A, p. 14. Aryeh Neier, “Inconvenient Facts,” Dissent 47, no. 2 (spring 2000): pp. 109–12. Neier is reacting to the review of US-backed atrocities in my New Military Humanism, which leaves no doubt as to the locus of responsibility.
21 Robert Cooper, “Why We Still Need Empires,” Observer (London), 7 April 2002, p. 27.
22 Robert Jervis, “Theories of War in an Era of Leading-Power Peace,” Presidential Address of the American Political Science Association, 2001, American Political Science Review 96, no. 1 (March 2002): pp. 1–14. 23 Dexter Perkins, The Monroe Doctrine, 1823–1826 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press; London: Oxford University Press, 1927). Bismarck cited by Nancy Mitchell, “Germans in the Backyard: Weltpolitik Versus Protective Imperialism,” Prologue 24, no. 2 (summer 1992): pp. 174–183.
24 Robert Lansing and Woodrow Wilson cited in Gabriel Kolko, Main Currents in Modern American Noam Chomsky
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History (New York: Pantheon Books, 1984), p. 47. 25 President Taft cited in Jenny Pearce, Under the Eagle: U.S. Intervention in Central America and the Caribbean (Boston: South End Press, 1982), p. 17. Wilson’s minister of the interior cited in Gordon Connell-Smith, The Inter-American System (London and New York: Oxford University Press, 1966), p. 16. John Foster Dulles cited in Stephen G. Rabe, Eisenhower and Latin America: The Foreign Policy of Anticommunism (Chapel Hill, N.C.: University of North Carolina Press, 1988), p. 33.
26 David F. Schmitz, Thank God They’re on Our Side, op. cit., and The United States and Fascist Italy, 1922–1940 (Chapel Hill, N.C.: University of North Carolina Press, 1988). Cable from British Embassy in Washington to Foreign Office in London, Sir H. Caccia, No. 2455, 24 November 1959, reporting conversation with Dulles.
27 Editorial, New York Times, 6 August 1954.
28 David Green, The Containment of Latin America: A History of the Myths and Realities of the Good Neighbor Policy (Chicago: Quadrangle Books, 1971).
29 William Y. Elliot, ed., The Political Economy of American Foreign Policy: Its Concepts, Strategy, and Limits, report by a study group sponsored by the Woodrow Wilson Foundation and the National Planning Association (New York: Holt, 1955), p. 42. 30 Schmitz, The United States and Fascist Italy, op. cit., p. 214.
31 Oren, Our Enemies and US, op. cit. 32 Schmitz, The United States and Fascist Italy, op. cit. Kennan cited in Christopher Simpson, The Splendid Blond Beast: Money, Law, and Genocide in the Twentieth Century (Monroe, Maine: Common Courage Press, 1995). Scott Newton, “The ‘Anglo-American Connection’ and the Political Economy of Appeasement,” Diplomacy and Statecraft 2, no. 3 (November 1991).
33 See my Deterring Democracy, op. cit., chapter 11, and sources cited there. Later material reviewed in my Year 501, op. cit., chapter 2, and World Orders, Old and New, extended edition (New York: Columbia University Press, 1996). 34 Schmitz, Thank God They’re on Our Side, op. cit., p. 305. 35 Alan Tonelson, “Why Things Turned Violent,” review of Confronting the Third World: United States Foreign Policy, 1945–1980, by Gabriel Kolko, New York Times, Sunday, 25 December 1988, sec. 7 (Book Review), p. 7.
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36 Lansing and Wilson cited in Lloyd C. Gardner, Safe for Democracy: The Anglo-American Response to Revolution, 1913–1923 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1984). Alex Carey, Taking the Risk out of Democracy: Corporate Propaganda versus Freedom and Liberty (Urbana, Ill.: University of Illinois Press, 1997). 37 Cited by Melvyn P. Leffler, A Preponderance of Power: National Security, the Truman Administration, and the Cold War (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1992), p. 78. 38 John Lewis Gaddis, The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987), p. 10. 39 Mark Laffey, “Discerning the Patterns of World Order: Noam Chomsky and International Theory after the Cold War,” Review of International Studies 29 (forthcoming, 2003), a critical account of the convention. NOTES TO CHAPTER 4 1 Michael Krepon, strategic analyst at the Henry L. Stimson Center, cited by Faye Bowers and Howard LaFranchi, “Risk Rises for a Reignited Arms Race,” Christian Science Monitor, 31 December 2002, p. 1. Gary Hart and Warren B. Rudman (cochairs), America—Still Unprepared, Still in Danger: Report of an Independent Task Force Sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations (New York and Washington, D.C.: Council on Foreign Relations, 2002). Online at: http://www.cfr.org/pdf/Homeland_TF.pdf.
2 Marion Lloyd, “Soviets Close to Using A-Bomb in 1962 Crisis, Forum Is Told,” Boston Globe, 13 October 2002, sec. A, p. 20. Kevin Sullivan, “40 Years After Missile Crisis, Players Swap Stories in Cuba,” Washington Post, 13 October 2002, sec. A, p. 28.
3 Eisenhower quoted in Matthew Evangelista, Cold War International History Project Working Paper Series, no. 10 “Why Keep Such an Army?”: Khrushchev’s Troop Reductions (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, December 1997). Online at: http://wwics.si.edu/topics/pubs/ACFB43.pdf.
4 Lloyd, “Soviets Close to Using A-Bomb in 1962 Crisis,” op. cit. 5 Raymond L. Garthoff, Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1987), pp. 83, 89, 86, 37. Emphasis his. Warheads of course remained under US control. 6 The leading US government scholar recognized that the only “mass-based political party in South Vietnam was the National Liberation Front and that the US must resort to violence to destroy it.” Douglas Eugene Pike, Viet Cong: The Organization and Techniques of the National Liberation Front of South Vietnam (Cambridge: M.I.T. Press, 1966). In Indonesia, the main target of the huge US-backed slaughter in 1965 was the PKI, which developed a “mass base among the peasantry” through its “vigor in defending the interests of the . . . Noam Chomsky
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poor.” Harold Crouch, Army and Politics in Indonesia (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1978), pp. 351, 155.
7 William Safire, “Irrefutable and Undeniable,” New York Times, 6 February 2003, sec. A, p. 39. Adam Clymer, “A Reprise of 1962, with Less Electricity,” New York Times, 6 February 2003, sec. A, p. 17. 8 Adlai E. Stevenson III, “Different Man, Different Moment,” New York Times, 7 February 2003, sec. A, p. 25. 9 Thomas Paterson, “Cuba and the Missile Crisis” in Paterson and Merrill, eds., Major Problems, op. cit. 10 Ernest R. May and Philip D. Zelikow, eds., The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House during the Cuban Missile Crisis (Cambridge: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1997), p. 263. 11 Frank Costigliola, “Kennedy, the European Allies, and the Failure to Consult,” Political Science Quarterly 110, no. 1 (spring 1995): pp. 105–23. Costigliola in Thomas G. Paterson, ed., Kennedy’s Quest for Victory: American Foreign Policy, 1961–1963 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989). The senior adviser, not clearly identified, may be Dean Acheson or Mike Mansfield. 12 Paterson, “Cuba and the Missile Crisis,” op. cit. 13 Morris H. Morley, Imperial State and Revolution: The United States and Cuba, 1952–1986 (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1987). See Daniele Ganser, Reckless Gamble: The Sabotage of the United Nations in the Cuban Conflict and the Missile Crisis of 1962 (New Orleans: University Press of the South, 2000), and Stephen M. Streeter, Managing the Counterrevolution: The United States and Guatemala, 1954–1961 (Athens, Ohio: Ohio University Center for International Studies, 2000). 14 “A Program of Covert Action against the Castro Regime,” 16 March 1960, declassified 9 April 1998. Text published in Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations, SHAFR Newsletter 33, no. 3 (September 2002). Online at: http://shafr.history.ohio-state.edu/Newsletter/2002/SEP/covert.htm.
15 British Cable No. 2455, from Washington to British Foreign Office, 24 November 1959. Online at: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/bayofpigs/19591124.pdf. See chapter 3, note 26, of Hegemony or Survival.
16 Arthur Schlesinger, Memorandum for the President, 11 February 1961, cited in Foreign Relations of the United States 1961-1963, vol. X, document 31M. Online at: http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/frusX/31_45.html.
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17 Thomas Paterson in Paterson, ed., Kennedy’s Quest, op. cit. For the full texts, see Mark J. White, ed., The Kennedys and Cuba: The Declassified Documentary History, rev. ed. (Chicago: Ivan R. Dee, 2001), pp. 37ff. 18 May and Zelikow, eds., The Kennedy Tapes, op. cit., p. 134; 18 October 1962, during an internal discussion on the use of force during the missile crisis. 19 May and Zelikow, eds., The Kennedy Tapes, op. cit., p. ix. On the US takeover under the guise of liberation, see Louis A. Pérez, Jr., The War of 1898: The United States and Cuba in History and Historiography (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1998). 20 Piero Gleijeses, Conflicting Missions: Havana, Washington, and Africa, 1959–1976 (Chapel Hill, N.C.: University of North Carolina Press, 2002), p. 16. The quoted phrase is Arthur Schlesinger’s, referring to the goals of Robert Kennedy, in Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., Robert Kennedy and His Times (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1978), pp. 477–80.
21 Jorge I. Domínguez, “The @#$%& Missile Crisis: (Or, What Was ‘Cuban’ About U.S. Decisions during the Cuban Missile Crisis?),” Diplomatic History 24, no. 2 (spring 2000): pp. 305–15. Gleijeses, Conflicting Missions, pp. 402–03. Online at: http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~jidoming/images/jid_missile.PDF.
22 White, ed., The Kennedys and Cuba, op. cit., pp. 71, 95ff., 106, 115ff. 23 Tim Weiner, “The Cuban Missile Crisis: When the World Stood on Edge And Nobody Died Beautifully,” New York Times, Sunday, 13 October 2002, sec. 4, p. 7, citing a February 1962 memorandum; also cited by AP, “US Data Show a Plan to Lure Cuba to War,” Boston Globe, 30 January 1998. 24 L. L. Lemnitzer, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense, “Justification for the US Military Intervention in Cuba (TS),” Operation Northwoods, 13 March 1962. Online at: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/20010430/northwoods.pdf.
25 Paterson in Kennedy’s Quest, op. cit. 26 Garthoff, Reflections, op. cit., pp. 16ff.
27 Garthoff, Reflections, op. cit., pp. 78–79, 108–09.
28 Memorandum of 12 November 1962 cited by Gleijeses, Conflicting Missions, op. cit., p. 25. Garthoff, Reflections, op. cit., pp. 91, 98. Noam Chomsky
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29 Domínguez, Diplomatic History, op. cit. May and Zelikow, eds., The Kennedy Tapes, op. cit., p. 66.
30 “Thirty Years of Fidel Castro,” editorial, New York Times, 2 January 1989, sec. 1, p. 22. 31 Reuters, Boston Globe, 15 October 1992. Juan O. Tamayo, “Cuban Hotels Were Bombed by Miami-Paid Salvadorans,” Miami Herald, 16 November 1997, sec. A, p. 1; Tamayo, “’94 Bombings against Honduran Leader May Be Linked to Anti-Castro Plot,” Miami Herald, 28 September 1997, sec. A, p. 1. Andrew Cawthorne, “US Foundation [CANF] Is Implicated in 1997 Bombings in Cuba,” Boston Globe, 12 March 1999. Ann Louise Bardach and Larry Rohter, “Taking Aim at Castro, Key Cuba Foe Claims Exiles’ Backing, New York Times, 12 July 1998, sec. 1, p. 1. Bardach and Rohter, “Decades of Intrigue: Life in the Shadows, Trying to Bring Down Castro,” New York Times, 13 July 1998, sec. A, p. 1. Anya Landau and Wayne Smith, “Cuba on the Terrorist List: In Defense of the Nation or Domestic Political Calculation?,” International Policy Report (Center for International Policy), November 2002.
32 Duncan Campbell, “Convicted Cuban ‘Spies’ to Tell US Appeal Court They Were Framed,” Guardian (London), 7 April 2003, p. 15. For an analysis of the charges and background, see William Blum, “Which Cuban Terrorists? Theirs or Ours?,” Counterpunch, 1 September 2002. 33 Ruth Leacock, Requiem for Revolution: The United States and Brazil, 1961–1969 (Kent, Ohio: Kent State University Press, 1990), p. 33. 34 May and Zelikow, eds., The Kennedy Tapes, op. cit., p. 91. 35 Morris Morley and Chris McGillion, Unfinished Business (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002), p. 223n. 36 Morley and Chris McGillion, Unfinished Business, op. cit., p. 153. See my Necessary Illusions, op. cit., pp. 177, 101. Shirley Christian, “U.S. Sends Aid to Nicaragua as Death Toll Rises,” New York Times, 4 September 1992, sec. A, p. 6. 37 David E. Sanger, “U.S. Won’t Offer Trade Testimony on Cuba Embargo,” New York Times, 21 February 1997, sec. A, p. 1. 38 Gleijeses, Conflicting Missions, op. cit., p. 26.
39 Paterson, “Cuba and the Missile Crisis” in Merrill and Paterson, eds., Major Problems, op. cit. 40 Noam Chomsky
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Letter to Robert Livingston, 18 April 1802, cited in “The Louisiana Purchase, 1803–2003,” National Interest, no. 71 (spring 2003): p. 16. 41 Robert F. Kennedy cited in Michael McClintock, Instruments of Statecraft: U.S. Guerrilla Warfare, Counterinsurgency, and Counterterrorism, 1940–1990 (New York: Pantheon, 1992), p. 23. Online at: http://www.statecraft.org/.
42 Cited in Adam Isacson and Joy Olson, Just the Facts (Washington, D.C.: Latin America Working Group and Center for International Policy, 1999), p. ix. Related material online at: http://www.ciponline.org/facts/.
43 See my Deterring Democracy, op. cit., chapter 10. 44 Lars Schoultz, Human Rights and United States Policy toward Latin America (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1981), p. 7.
45 For discussion, context, and sources, see my Year 501, op. cit., chapter 7. 46 Thomas Skidmore, The Politics of Military Rule in Brazil, 1964–85 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988). Also see my Year 501, op. cit., chapter 7. 47 Report from Ambassador Ellsworth Bunker to President Johnson, “Indonesia-American Relations,” Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS), 1964–1968, vol. 26, p. 257. Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE), 1 September 1965, FRUS, vol. 26, p. 292. Cited by Mark Curtis, Web of Deceit: Britain’s Real Role in the World (New York: Vintage, 2003), pp. 399ff.
48 Gleijeses, Conflicting Missions, op. cit., pp. 332, 346.
49 Victoria Brittain, review of Conflicting Missions, by Piero Gleijeses, “Conflicting Missions: Havana, Washington, and Africa, 1959–76,” Race and Class 44, no. 4 (April–June 2003): pp. 83– 90. 50 Gleijeses, Conflicting Missions, op. cit., p. 359.
51 David Gonzalez, “At Cuba Conference, Old Foes Exchange Notes on 1962 Missile Crisis,” New York Times, 14 October 2002, sec. A, p. 6. Barry Gewen, “Thinking the Unthinkable,” review of Why Terrorism Works: Understanding the Threat, Responding to the Challenge, by Alan M. Dershowitz, New York Times, Sunday, 15 September 2002, sec. 7 (Book Review), p. 12. 52 Alexander George, ed., Western State Terrorism (New York: Routledge, 1991; London: Polity, Noam Chomsky
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1991). See also Chomsky and Edward S. Herman, The Political Economy of Human Rights, vol. 1 (Boston: South End Press, 1979), chapter 3, sec. 1, and Edward S. Herman, The Real Terror Network: Terrorism in Fact and Propaganda (Boston: South End Press, 1982). 53 Jean Bethke Elshtain, Just War against Terror (New York: Basic Books, 2003), p. 18; her emphasis. For a review of these operations, based in part on notes provided to us by Newsweek Saigon bureau chief Kevin Buckley, see Chomsky and Herman, Political Economy of Human Rights, op. cit., vol. 1, pp. 313ff., and Manufacturing Consent, op. cit., pp. 196ff. Some of the same material appears in Christopher Hitchens, The Trial of Henry Kissinger (London and New York: Verso, 2001), pp. 30ff.
54 Congressional testimony, 1986, 1983. See essays by Jack Spence and Eldon Kenworthy in Thomas W. Walker, ed., Reagan Versus the Sandinistas: The Undeclared War on Nicaragua (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1987).
55 Remarks at a White House meeting for Supporters of United States Assistance for the Nicaraguan Democratic Resistance, 3 March 1986. Walter Robinson, “Reagan Says Nicaraguans Threaten US,” Boston Globe, 22 March 1986. 56 Eldon Kenworthy cited in Walker, Reagan Versus the Sandinistas, op. cit. See also my Culture of Terrorism, op. cit., pp. 219ff.; Necessary Illusions, op. cit., pp. 71ff.; and Deterring Democracy, op. cit., p. 259, on various phases as the useful farce proceeded. National emergency: see “Texts of Reagan Executive Order and Message to Congress,” New York Times, 2 May 1985, sec. A, p. 8, and my Turning the Tide: U.S. Intervention in Central America and the Struggle for Peace (Boston: South End Press, 1986), p. 144, for more detail. Libya: see my Pirates and Emperors, Old and New: International Terrorism in the Real World, updated version of 1986 first edition published by Black Rose Books (Cambridge: South End Press, 2002), p. 72, on Reagan’s July 1985 address to the American Bar Association. Online at: http://www.reagan.utexas.edu/resource/speeches/1985/70885a.htm.
57 George Shultz, “Moral Principles and Strategic Interests,” Department of State, Current Policy, no. 820 (transcript of speech of 14 April 1986). Libya: see my Pirates and Emperors, Old and New, op. cit., chapter 3.
58 Thomas W. Walker, Nicaaagua: Living in the Shadow of the Eagle, 4th ed. (Athens, Ohio: Ohio University Press; and Boulder, Colo., Westview Press, 2003). Thomas Carothers in Abraham F. Lowenthal, ed., Exporting Democracy: The United States and Latin America, Case Studies (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1991). Carothers, In the Name of Democracy: US Policy toward Latin America in the Reagan Years (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991); his emphasis.
59 For World Bank, IADB, and other sources, see my Deterring Democracy, op. cit., chapter 10. For information on health effects, see Nicaraguan Society of Doctors for Peace and the Defense of Life (MEDIPAZ), The War in Nicaragua: The Effects of Low-Intensity Conflict on an Underdeveloped Country (Managua, Nicaragua, and Cambridge, Mass.: MEDIPAZ, 2003). 60 See Paul S. Reichler, “Tribute to Professor Abram Chayes: Holding America to Its Own Best Standards: Abe Chayes and Nicaragua in the World Court,” Harvard International Law Journal 42, no. 1 (winter 2001). Noam Chomsky
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61 “Military and Paramilitary Activities in and against Nicaragua,” (Nicaragua v. United States of America), Merits, Judgment, I.C.J. Reports 1986, p. 14, International Court of Justice, 27 June 1986. Online at: http://www.gwu.edu/~jaysmith/nicus3.html. Security Council S/18221, 11 July 1986.
62 For these and many other samples from the press, see Chomsky and Herman, Manufacturing Consent, op. cit., pp. 240ff., and my Necessary Illusions, op. cit., pp. 33ff., and Year 501, op. cit., pp. 251ff. 63 Charles A. Radin, “US Crafts Vietnam Education Proposal,” Boston Globe, 17 November 2000, sec. A, p. 21. 64 Anthropologist Ira Lowenthal, his emphasis. Cited in Paul Farmer, AIDS and Accusation: Haiti and the Geography of Blame (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992). 65 See Farmer, The Uses of Haiti, updated ed. (Monroe, Maine: Common Courage Press, 2003). 66 Max Mintz, Seeds of Empire: The American Revolutionary Conquest of the Iroquois (New York: New York University, 1999): pp. 75–76, 180ff. 67 General John Galvin, commander of the US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), explaining strategy to Congress; see Fred Kaplan, “US General Says Contra Chances Improving,” Boston Globe, 20 May 1987, p. 9. 68 Michael Kinsley, “Down the Memory Hole with the Contras,” Wall Street Journal, 26 March 1987, sec. 1, p. 37. 69 Envío (Managua, Nicaragua), March 2003; September 2001.
70 “The Armageddon Effect: The Final Test,” Envío, October 2001. 71 On the 1984 elections, see Walker, Nicaragua, op. cit., pp. 156ff. On the reports of a wide range of expert observers, all ignored, and adherence within media and commentary to the Reaganite agenda on elections in enemy Nicaragua and its terrorist client states, see Chomsky and Herman, Manufacturing Consent, op. cit., chapter 3. 72 “The Armageddon Effect,” op. cit. 73 Noam Chomsky
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Kenneth M. Pollack, “Faith and Terrorism in the Muslim World,” review of The Crisis of Islam, by Bernard Lewis, New York Times, Sunday, 6 April 2003, sec. 7 (Book Review), p. 11. 74 News Services, “Iran-Contra Figure Named to Senior Post in White House,” Washington Post, 3 December 2002, sec. A, p. 2. 75 Abrams: see Steven R. Weisman, “Abrams Back in Capital Fray at Center of Mideast Battle,” New York Times, 7 December 2002, sec. A, p. 1. Reich and Noriega: see James Dao, “Bush Names Veteran Anti-Communist to Latin America Post,” New York Times, 10 January 2002, sec. A, p. 6. 76 Laura W. Murphy, Director of the ACLU’s Washington National Office, in ACLU press release, “ACLU Calls on President Bush to Disavow New Cyber-Spying Scheme That Seeks to Put Every American Under Scrutiny,” 14 November 2002. Online at: http://www.aclu.org/SafeandFree/SafeandFree.cfm?ID=11309&c=206 .
77 “The Armageddon Effect,” op. cit. 78 Ricardo Stevens, 19 October 2001, on Radio La Voz del Tropico (Panama); cited in North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA), Report on the Americas 35, no. 3 (November– December 2001). 79 Carlos Salinas, interview, Institute for Public Accuracy, San Francisco, Calif., 22 March 2002. Online at: http://www.accuracy.org/press_releases/PR032202.htm. On polls: see pp. 199ff. Of Hegemony or Survival.
NOTES TO CHAPTER 5 1 Ronald Reagan cited in Bernard Weinraub, “Israeli Extends ‘Hand of Peace’ to Jordanians,” New York Times, 18 October 1985, sec. A, p. 1. George Shultz, State Department, Current Policy, no. 589 (24 June 1984) and no. 629 (25 October 1984). George W. Bush quoted by Rich Heffern, “The Snake Coiled Deep in Our Hearts,” National Catholic Reporter, 11 January 2002. Online at: http://natcath.org/NCR_Online/archives2/2002a/011102/011102a.htm.
2 For discussion of some of these questions, see Chomsky and Herman, Political Economy of Human Rights, op. cit; Herman, Real Terror Network, op. cit.; my Pirates and Emperors, Old and New, op. cit; and George, ed., Western State Terrorism, op. cit. 3 UN Inter-Agency Task Force, Africa Recovery Program/Economic Commission, South African Destabilization: The Economic Cost of Frontline Resistance to Apartheid (1989), p. 13, cited in Merle Bowen, "Mozambique and the Politics of Economic Recovery," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Volume 15, Number 1 (Winter 1991): pp. 45-55. Dereje Asrat et al., Children on the Front Line, 3rd ed. (New York and Geneva: UNICEF, 1989). For ANC material, see Joseba Zulaika and William A. Douglass, Terror and Taboo: The Follies, Fables, and Faces of Terrorism (New York: Noam Chomsky
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Routledge, 1996), p. 12. 4 Raymond Garthoff, A Journey through the Cold War: A Memoir of Containment and Coexistence (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2001), pp. 338, 387. John K. Cooley, Unholy Wars: Afghanistan, America, and International Terrorism (London and Sterling, Va.: Pluto Press, 1999), pp. 11, 54. 5 Cooley, Unholy Wars, op. cit., pp. 230ff. 6 Miron Rezun, Saddam Hussein’s Gulf Wars: Ambivalent Stakes in the Middle East (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1992), pp. 58ff.
7 See my Deterring Democracy, op. cit., pp. 50–51, 236ff., and 278ff. Task Force on US-Korea Policy, “The Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: Avoiding the Road to Perdition,” Current History 102, no. 663 (April 2003): pp. 152ff. For material on Duvalier, see my Year 501, op. cit., chapter 8, sec. 4. 8 Hannah Pakula, “Under the Eye of ‘the Big C,’”Washington Post, 27 December 1989, sec. A, p. 19. Howard LaFranchi, “US Speeds Tally of Iraq Offenses,” Christian Science Monitor, 25 November 2002, p. 1. 9 Ruth Sinai, AP, “Bush Preparing to Lift Ban on Government Loans to Iraq,” 22 December 1989. State Department to Senator Daniel Inouye, 26 February 1990. See my Deterring Democracy, op. cit., p. 152, for details. 10 Peter Spiegel and Richard McGregor, “Donald Rumsfeld: Saddam Hussein ‘Joins Pantheon of Failed Dictators,’” Financial Times (London), 10 April 2003, p. 3. Peter Spiegel, “Paul Wolfowitz: The Pentagon Hawk’s Vision of a War for Democracy,” Financial Times, 10 April 2003, p. 2. On Marcos, who was a particular favorite of President Reagan and Vice President Bush, see my Deterring Democracy, op. cit., chapters 7 and 8. 11 See Bedjauoi, Aroua, and Ait-Larbi, eds., An Inquiry into the Algerian Massacres, op. cit., for extensive documentation. William Burns cited in Steven R. Weisman, “U.S. to Sell Military Gear to Algeria to Help It Fight Militants,” New York Times, 10 December 2002, sec. A, p. 20. Robert Fisk, “The Double Standards, Dubious Morality and Duplicity of This Fight against Terror,” Independent (London), 4 January 2003, p. 18. Lara Marlowe, “Fanatical Islamic Terror Has Become Globalised,” Irish Times, 31 December 2002, p. 11.
12 For details and sources, see Thomas Ferguson and Joel Rogers, Right Turn: The Decline of the Democrats and the Future of American Politics (New York: Hill & Wang, 1986), and Michael Meeropol, Surrender: How the Clinton Administration Completed the Reagan Revolution, updated ed. (Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan Press, 2003). See also my Turning the Tide, op. cit., chapter 5; and my Year 501, op. cit., chapter 11. On economic consequences, see State of Working America studies by the Economic Policy Institute (online at:
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http://www.epinet.org/) and Edward N. Wolff, Top Heavy: A Study of the Increasing Inequality of Wealth in America, updated ed. (New York: New Press, 1996).
13 On Libya’s role in Reaganite demonology, see my Pirates and Emperors, Old and New, op. cit., chapter 3; and Stephen Rosskamm Shalom, Imperial Alibis: Rationalizing U.S. Intervention after the Cold War (Boston: South End Press, 1993), chapter 7. 14 See my Necessary Illusions, op. cit., pp. 176–80. 15 See pp. 96–97 of Hegemony or Survival. 16 Anthony Lewis, “Abroad at Home: A Real Evil,” New York Times, 17 April 1986, sec. A, p. 31. 17 Hodding Carter III, “The Fickle Finger of the American Press,” Wall Street Journal, 14 September 1989, p. 1. Thomas Pickering quoted by Peter James Spielmann, AP, “U.S. Envoy Praises General Assembly,” 19 December 1989. For a review of the drug war, see my Deterring Democracy, op. cit., chapters 5 and 6, and Shalom, Imperial Alibis, op. cit., chapter 8.
18 Cited in Irene L. Gendzier, Notes from the Minefield: United States Intervention in Lebanon and the Middle East, 1945–1958 (New York: Columbia University Press, 1977), p. 256. 19 Ferguson and Rogers, Right Turn, op. cit., p. 122. Jackie Calmes and John D. McKinnon, “Red Flag: With Deficits Back in Picture, Bush Agenda Faces Big Test,” Wall Street Journal, 11 November 2002, sec. A, p. 1.
20 Peronet Despeignes, “Bush Shelved Report on $42,200bn Deficit Fears,” Financial Times (London), 29 May 2003, p. 1. Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Jeffrey Sachs, “An Economic Menu of Pain,” Boston Globe, 19 May 2003, sec. A, p. 11. Fleischer cited in Peronet Despeignes, “White House Aware of ‘Crushing Debt,’” Financial Times, 30 May 2003, sec. 1, p. 1.
21 Paul Krugman, “Stating the Obvious,” New York Times, 27 May 2003, sec. A, p. 25. 22 Anatol Lieven, “The Push for War,” op. cit.
23 Martin Sieff, “Militarism and the Midterm Elections: White House Strategists Timed the Iraq War Debate to Dominate the Fall Congressional Campaign,” American Conservative, 4 November 2002. Online at: http://www.amconmag.com/11_4/militarism_and_the.html.
24 Donald Green and Eric Schickler, “Winning a Battle, Not a War,” New York Times, 12 November 2002, sec. A, p. 27. Noam Chomsky
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25 Peter Slevin, “U.S. Drops Bid to Strengthen Germ Warfare Accord,” Washington Post, 19 September 2002, sec. A, p. 1. 26 Greg Gordon, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, 18 October 2002; “Attack on Iraq Could Lead Saddam to Unleash His Chemical and Biological Weapons, Warns Jane’s Report,” Jane’s Terrorism and Security Monitor, 12 November 2002. Online at http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jtsm/jtsm021112_1_n.shtml. Sebastian Rotella, “Allies Find No Links Between Iraq, Al Qaeda,” Los Angeles Times, 4 November 2002, sec. A, p. 1; Jimmy Burns and Mark Huband, “Security Warning: “War ‘Will Fuel Unrest and More Terrorism,’” Financial Times (London), 24 January 2003, Middle East section, p. 5; Eric Lichtblau, “German Minister Says Al Qaeda Threat Is as Strong Now as Before Sept. 11,” New York Times, 25 January 2003, sec. A, p. 8; Marlise Simons, “Europeans Warn of Terror Attacks in Event of War in Iraq,” New York Times, 29 January 2003, sec. A, p. 18; and Philip Shenon, “Ridge Warns That Iraq War Could Raise Terrorist Threat,” New York Times, 4 March 2003, sec. A, p. 10.
27 Richard K. Betts, “Suicide from Fear of Death?,” Foreign Affairs 82, no. 1 (January–February 2003): p. 34ff. 28 Kenneth Waltz in Booth and Dunne, eds., Worlds in Collision, op. cit. US intelligence, see chapter 7, note 10, of Hegemony or Survival. 29 Study cited by Charles L. Glaser and Steve Fetter, “National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy,” International Security 26, no. 1 (summer 2001): pp. 40–92. Online at: http://www.puaf.umd.edu/faculty/papers/fetter/Glaser.pdf. Richard Falkenrath, Robert Newman, and Bradley Thayer, America’s Achilles’ Heel: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack (Boston: MIT Press, 1998). Barton Gellman, “Struggles Inside the Government Defined Campaign,” Washington Post, 20 December 2001, sec. A, p. 1. Hart and Rudman, America—Still Unprepared, Still in Danger, op. cit.
30 Kaysen et al., War with Iraq, op. cit., citing Daniel Benjamin, “In the Fog of War, a Greater Threat,” Washington Post, 31 October 2002, sec. A, p. 23. Barton Gellman, “Seven Nuclear Sites Looted; Iraqi Scientific Files, Some Containers Missing,” Washington Post, 10 May 2003, sec. A, p. 1.
31 Youssef Ibrahim, “Bush’s Iraq Adventure Is Bound to Backfire,”International Herald Tribune, 1 November 2002.
32 See, for example, Medact, Collateral Damage: The Health and Environmental Costs of War on Iraq, 12 November 2002. Online at: http://www.medact.org/tbx/docs/Medact%20Iraq%20report_final3.pdf. Physicians for Human Rights, Health and Human Rights Consequences of War in Iraq, briefing paper, 14 February 2003. Online at: http://www.phrusa.org/research/iraq/021403.html. Nicholas Pelham, “Desperate Iraqis Face Mass Starvation, Warns UN,” Financial Times (London), 28 February 2003, Iraq Crisis section, p. 6; Kenneth H. Bacon, “Iraq: The Humanitarian Challenge,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59, no. 1 (January-February 2003): pp. 26–27. Online at: http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2003/jf03/jf03bacon.html. James Politi, Guy Dinmore, and Mark Turner, “Aid Agencies Hit at ‘Lack of Clarity’ in US Postwar Plans,” Financial Times (London), 27 February 2003, Iraq Crisis section, p. 8; and Ed Vulliamy, Burhan Wazir, and Gaby Hinsliff, “Aid Groups Warn of War Crisis in Iraq,” Observer (London), 22 December 2002, p. 2. Noam Chomsky
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33 Turi Munthe, Introduction, in Munthe, ed., The Saddam Hussein Reader (New York: Thunder’s Mouth, 2002), p. xxvii.
34 The sanctions were technically imposed by the UN, but it was always understood that they were enforced by the US-UK, under UN aegis, and with little support, particularly in the cruel form that targets civilians. 35 Frances Williams, “Child Death Rate in Iraq Trebles,” Financial Times (London), 12 December 2002, International Economy section, p. 9. John Mueller and Karl Mueller, “Sanctions of Mass Destruction,” Foreign Affairs 78, no. 3 (May–June 1999).
36 Rajiv Chandrasekaran, “Cheap Food Rations Ensure That No One Goes Hungry,” Washington Post, National Weekly Edition, 10 February 2003, a notable exception to the general lack of coverage. See also Rajiv Chandrasekaran, “Stockpiling Popularity With Food: Rations Quell Iraqi Discontent,” Washington Post, February 3, 2003, sec. A, p. 1.
37 Denis Halliday, “Scylla and Charybdis,” and Hans van Sponeck, “The Policy of Punishment,” Al-Ahram Weekly 618 (26 December 2002–1 January 2003). Online at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2002/618/sc6.htm and http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2002/618/sc5.htm.
38 Joy Gordon, “Cool War: Economic Sanctions as a Weapon of Mass Destruction,” Harper’s 305, no. 1830 (November 2002): pp. 43–49. For extensive detail and rebuttal to official justifications, see Eric Herring, “Between Iraq and a Hard Place: A Critique of the British Government’s Narrative on UN Economic Sanctions,” Review of International Studies 28, no. 1 (January 2002): pp. 39–56. Online at: http://www.casi.org.uk/conf99/doc/herring.html.
39 International Committee of the Red Cross, Iraq: 1989–1999, A Decade of Sanctions, 14 December 1999. Online at: http://www.icrc.org/web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList322/4BBFCEC7FF4B7A3CC1256B66005E0FB6.
40 Other arguments presented were too bizarre to discuss: e.g., that we should bomb and occupy Iraq because then we could stop torturing its population with sanctions. 41 John F. Burns, “Pakistan Antiterror Support Avoids Vow of Military Aid,” New York Times, 16 September 2001, sec. 1, p. 5. Samina Ahmed, “The United States and Terrorism in Southwest Asia: September 11 and Beyond,” International Security 26, no. 3 (winter 2001–02): pp. 79–93.
42 Thomas Friedman outlining Bush I administration thinking after it effectively authorized Saddam to crush the rebellions that might have overthrown him, “NATO Tries to Ease Security Concerns in Eastern Europe,” New York Times, 7 June 1991, sec. A, p. 1.
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43 Mark Thomas, Column, New Statesman 15, no. 736 (9 December 2002): p. 12. See chapter 3, note 5, of Hegemony or Survival. 44 Gallup Poll International, Iraq Poll 2003, December 2002. Online at: http://www.gallupinternational.com/download/GIA%20press%20release%20Iraq%20Survey%202003.pdf. Marc Champion, “European Leaders Declare Support For U.S. on Iraq,” Wall Street Journal, 30 January 2003, sec. A, p. 1; Steven R. Weisman, “U.S. Demands Iraq Show Cooperation by This Weekend,” New York Times, 10 February 2003, sec. A, p. 1.
45 Powell cited in Steven R. Weisman, “U.S. Demands Iraq Show Cooperation by This Weekend,” New York Times, 10 February 2003, sec. A, p. 1. Reference is to the original eight former Russian satellites. 46 Andrew Higgins, “‘New Europe’ Wary of U.S., Too,” Wall Street Journal, 18 March 2003, sec. A, p. 14. 47 Holbrooke cited in Lee Michael Katz, “Sooner or Later, Iraq to Be Dealt With,” National Journal 35, no. 6 (8 February 2003): pp. 460–61.
48 “The Op-Ed Alliance,” editorial, Wall Street Journal, 3 February 2003, sec. A, p. 16. 49 Thomas L. Friedman, “Vote France Off the Island,” New York Times, 9 February 2003, sec. 4, p. 15. 50 Todd S. Purdum, “Bush’s Moral Rectitude Is a Tough Sell in Old Europe,” New York Times, 30 January 2003, sec. A, p. 8. Max Boot, “A War for Oil? Not This Time,” New York Times, 13 February 2003, sec. A, p. 41. Robert Kagan, “Politicians with Guts,” Washington Post, National Weekly Edition, 10 February 2003; also in Washington Post, 31 January 2003, sec. A, p. 27.
51 Mark Landler, “Schroder’s Antiwar Stance Becomes a Balancing Act,” New York Times, 20 January 2003, sec. A, p. 13, quoting the spokesperson for the right-wing Christian Social Union party. 52 Polls from “"Reluctantly Under the Whip: Turkey, Iraq, and America,” The Economist 366, no. 8307 (18 January 2003): p. 48. Morton Abramowitz, “Turkey and Iraq, Act II,” Wall Street Journal, 16 January 2003, sec. A, p. 12.
53 Recep Tayyip Erdogan cited in Brian Groom, “Turks Hit at US Military Might,” Financial Times (London), 25 January 2003, p. 6.
54 Noam Chomsky
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Dexter Filkins, “Turkish Parliament Is Asked to Approve U.S. Troops,” New York Times, 26 February 2003, sec. A, p. 10; Filkins, “Turkey Backs United States Plans for Iraq,” New York Times, 6 February 2003, sec. A, p. 17. Amberin Zaman, “Iraqi Kurds Balk at Turks’ Role,” Los Angeles Times, 8 February 2003, sec. A, p. 11. 55 Steven R. Weisman, “Politics Shapes the Battlefield in Iraq,” New York Trimes, Sunday, 30 March 2003, sec. 4 (Week in Review), p. 3. 56 Paul Wolfowitz cited in Marc Lacey, “Turkey Rejects Criticism by U.S. Official Over Iraq,” New York Times, 8 May 2003, sec. A, p. 15. 57 Thomas Carothers, “Promoting Democracy and Fighting Terror,” Foreign Affairs 82, no. 1 (January–February 2003): pp. 84ff. 58 Carothers in Exporting Democracy, op. cit., and In the Name of Democracy, op. cit. On the “yearning for democracy” in the Reagan years, see Neil A. Lewis, “What Can the U.S. Really Do About Haiti?,” New York Times, Sunday, 6 December 1987, sec. 4 (Week in Review), p. 2. For more details, see my Necessary Illusions, op. cit., p. 49.
59 Atilio Borón, State, Capitalism, and Democracy in Latin America (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1995), chapter 7.
60 James E. Mahon, Jr., Mobile Capital and Latin American Development (University Park, Pa.: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1996). 61 Timothy A. Canova, “Banking and Financial Reform at the Crossroads of the Neoliberal Contagion,” American University International Law Review 14, no. 6 (1999), and “The Transformation of U.S. Banking and Finance: From Regulated Competition to Free-Market Receivership,” Brooklyn Law Review 60, no. 4 (winter 1995). César Gaaviria, OAS secretarygeneral, in Guy Dinmore, “Powell Overtures Fail to Impress Latin Americans,” Financial Times (London), 11 June 2003, Americas section, p. 9. 62 Ha-Joon Chang and Ajit Singh, “Public Enterprise in Developing Countries and Economic Efficiency,” UNCTAD Review 4 (1993): pp. 45–81. 63 Thomas E. Patterson, “Will Democrats Find Victory in the Ruins,” Boston Globe, 15 December 2000, sec. A, p. 27, and “Point of Agreement: We’re Glad It’s Over,” New York Times, 8 November 2000, sec. A, p. 27. Also see his book The Vanishing Voter: Public Involvement in an Age of Uncertainty (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2002). Gary C. Jacobson, “A House and Senate Divided: The Clinton Legacy and the Congressional Elections of 2000,” Political Science Quarterly 116, no. 1 (spring 2001): pp. 5–27. Online at: http://www.psqonline.org/99_article.php3?byear=2001&bmonth=spring&a=02free. See also my articles in the January (“Elections 2000”) and February (“Voting Patterns and Abstention”) 2001 issues of Z Magazine. Online at: http://www.zmag.org/ZMag/articles/jan01chomsky.htm and Noam Chomsky
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http://zena.secureforum.com/Znet/zmag/feb01chomsky.htm.
64 Stuart Ewen, Captains of Consciousness: Advertising and the Social Roots of the Consumer Culture (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1976), p. 85. See also Michael Dawson, The Consumer Trap: Big Business Marketing in American Life (Urbana, Ill.: University of Illinois Press, 2003), for an extensive review of the technique of “off-job control” developed from the 1920s as a counterpart to the “on-job control” of Taylorism, designed to turn people into controlled robots in life as well as work. 65 Hans von Sponeck, “Too Much Collateral Damage,” Toronto Globe and Mail, 2 July 2002. Online at: http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0702-03.htm. Halliday, “Scylla and Charybdis,” op. cit.
66 Thomas L. Friedman, “NATO Tries to Ease Security Concerns in Eastern Europe,” New York Times, 7 June 1991, sec. A, p. 1. Alan Cowell, “Kurds Assert Few Outside Iraq Wanted Them to Win,” New York Times, 11 April 1991, sec. A, p. 11. Friedman, “Because We Could,” New York Times, 4 June 2003, sec. A, p. 31. 67 Brent Scowcroft cited in Bob Herbert, “Spoils of War,” New York Times, 10 April 2003, sec. A, p. 27. 68 Chart shown in New York Times, 7 May 2003, sec. A, p. 14 (see James Dao and Eric Schmitt, “Postwar Planning: President Picks a Special Envoy to Rebuild Iraq,” New York Times, 7 May 2003, sec. A, p. 1); Source: Department of Defense and Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance. 69 David Sanger with John Tagliabue, “Bush Aide Says U.S., Not U.N., Will Rebuild Iraq,” New York Times, 5 April 2003, sec. B, p. 1. 70 Arthur Schlesinger: see p. 12 of Hegemony or Survival. NOTES TO CHAPTER 6 1 David Ignatius, “Europe’s Real Modernizers,” International Herald Tribune, 14–15 December 2002, from Washington Post, 13 December 2002, sec. A, p. 45. 2 For Financial Times, Business Week, Wall Street Journal, and other sources, see World Orders Old and New, op. cit., chapter 2. 3 Arie Farnam, “Children Left Parentless as Migrants Flee Poor Ukraine,” Christian Science Monitor, 10 June 2003, p. 7.
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4 UN Development Program cited by Duncan Green and Matthew Griffith, “Globalization and Its Discontents,” International Affairs 78, no. 1 (January 2002): pp. 49–68. Updated and abridged version online at: http://www.cafod.org.uk/policy/globalisationandcritics200301.pdf. David E. Powell, “Death as a Way of Life: Russia’s Demographic Decline,” Current History 101, no. 657 (October 2002): pp. 344–48. For polls, see Michael Wines, “New Study Supports Idea Stalin Was Poisoned,” New York Times, 5 March 2003, sec. A, p. 3.
5 David Bruce cited in Costigliola, “Kennedy, the European Allies, and the Failure to Consult,” op. cit. 6 Henry Kissinger, American Foreign Policy, expanded ed. (New York: Norton, 1974). 7 See. p. 15 of Hegemony or Survival. 8 Christopher Thorne, The Issue of War: States, Societies, and the Far Eastern Conflict of 1941–1945 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1985): pp. 225, 211. For sources and general context, see my Deterring Democracy, op. cit. 9 Howard M. Wachtel, The Money Mandarins: The Making of a Supranational Economic Order, rev. ed. (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe; London: Pluto Press, 1990), pp. 44ff. Business Week, 7 April 1975. 10 Melvyn Leffler, A Preponderance of Power, op. cit., p. 339. 11 Britain: see Mark Curtis, Web of Deceit, op. cit., pp. 15–16. For the others, see Aaron David Miller, Search for Security: Saudi Arabian Oil and American Foreign Policy, 1939–1949 (Chapel Hill, N.C.: University of North Carolina Press, 1980); Irvine H. Anderson, Aramco, the United States and Saudi Arabia: A Study of the Dynamics of Foreign Oil Policy, 1933–1950 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1981); Michael B. Stoff, Oil, War and American Security: The Search for a National Policy on Foreign Oil, 1941–1947 (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1980). Eisenhower cited in Steven L. Spiegel, The Other Arab-Israeli Conflict: Making America’s Middle East Policy from Truman to Reagan (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985), p. 51. 12 Task Force on US Korea Policy, The Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: Avoiding the Road to Perdition (Washington, D.C.: Center for International Policy; Chicago: Center for East Asian Studies at the University of Chicago, 2003); abridged version, “The Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula,” op. cit. 13 Cited by Selig S. Harrison, “Gas and Geopolitics in Northeast Asia: Pipelines, Regional Stability, and the Korean Nuclear Crisis,” World Policy Journal 19, no. 4 (winter 2002–03): pp. 23–36. Online at: http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/articles/wpj02-4/harrison.html. Noam Chomsky
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14 What follows concerning the SFPT is drawn from John Price, A Just Peace? The 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty in Historical Perspective, Japan Policy Research Institute, working paper no. 78 (June 2001). Online at: http://www.jpri.org/WPapers/wp78.html.
15 Human Rights Watch, “U.S.: Ashcroft Attacks Human Rights Law,” press release, 15 May 2003. Online at: http://www.hrw.org/press/2003/05/us051503.htm.
NOTES TO CHAPTER 7 1 Michael Krepon cited in Faye Bowers and Howard LaFranchi, “Risk Rises for a Reignited Arms Race,” Christian Science Monitor, 31 December 2002, p. 1. 2 Butler cited in Hans Kristensen, BASIC Research Report 98, no.2 (British-American Security Information Council, March 1998), Appendix I. Online at: http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Research/1998nuclearfutures(2).htm. Aluf Benn, “Russia Concerned over Israel’s Nuclear Weapons Program,” Ha’aretz, 2 June 2003, reporting Russia’s demand that Israel’s nuclear program “be placed on the agenda of international organizations concerned with preventing nuclear proliferation.”
3 Knut Royce, “Secret Offer Iraq Sent Pullout Deal to U.S.,” Newsday, 29 August 1990; “Iraq Offers Deal to Quit Kuwait U.S. Rejects It, But Stays ‘Interested,’” Newsday, 3 January 1991, p. 5. See chapter 2, note 14, of Hegemony or Survival.
4 Ruth Sinai, “Israel No. 2 in West in Social Inequality,” and “An Existential Threat,” Ha’aretz, 3 December 2002. 5 Yitzhak ben-Yisrael, “Ashlayat ha-otsma ha-yisrealit” (The illusion of Israeli grandeur), Ha’aretz, 16 April 2002. 6 Galal Nassar, “The Axis of Evil—from Another Angle,” Al-Ahram Weekly 576 (7–13 March 2002). Online at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2002/576/focus.htm.
7 Robert Olson, “Turkey-Iran Relations, 2000–2001: The Caspian, Azerbaijan and the Kurds,” Middle East Policy 9, no. 2 (June 2002): pp. 111–129.
8 Praful Bidwai, “A Zionist Recipe for India,” News International, 22 May 2003, citing Brajesh Mishra.
9 Lloyd George cited by V. G. Kiernan, European Empires from Conquest to Collapse, 1815–1960 (Leicester, England: Leicester University Press, in association with Fontana Paperbacks, 1982).
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10 National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernment Experts (Washington, D.C.: National Intelligence Council, December 2000). 11 National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2015, op. cit. 12 Mark Curtis, Web of Deceit, op. cit., chapter 22. 13 Thom Shanker and Eric Schmitt, “Strategic Shift: Pentagon Expects Long-Term Access to Key Iraq Bases,” New York Times, 20 April 2003, sec. A, p. 1. 14 Bob Herbert, “What Is It Good For?,” New York Times, 21 April 2003, sec. A, p. 23. 15 On the planning context, see chapter 6 of Hegemony or Survival. The specific topics reviewed here are discussed in much greater detail in my World Orders Old and New, op. cit.; the updated edition of Fateful Triangle: The United States, Israel, and the Palestinians (Cambridge: South End Press, 1999); Pirates and Emperors, Old and New, updated ed., op. cit.; and Middle East Illusions, Including Peace in the Middle East? Reflections on Justice and Nationhood, updated ed. (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2003). See these for sources, where not cited, and for fuller quotations. On broader issues there is a rich literature. Particularly pertinent for background here is Norman G. Finkelstein, Image and Reality of the Israel-Palestine Conflict, updated ed. (London and New York: Verso, 2003). 16 Abraham Ben-Zvi, Decade of Transition: Eisenhower, Kennedy, and the Origins of the American-Israeli Alliance (New York: Columbia, 1998), p. 76. See Irene Gendzier, Notes from the Minefield, op. cit., and William Roger Louis and Roger Owen, eds., A Revolutionary Year: The Middle East in 1958 (London and New York: I. B. Tauris Press; Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2002). For an account of events in Indonesia, see Audrey R. Kahin and George McT. Kahin, Subversion as Foreign Policy: The Secret Eisenhower and Dulles Debacle in Indonesia (New York: New Press, 1995).
17 Ben-Zvi, Decade of Transition, op. cit., pp. 80ff. Separately, he attributes the statement to Eisenhower. See also Gendzier, Notes from the Minefield, op. cit., and Ilan Pappé in Lewis and Owen, eds., A Revolutionary Year, op. cit. 18 Efraim Inbar, The Israeli-Turkish Entente (London: King’s College London Mediterranean Studies, 2001), p. 25, written from a perspective close to official Israeli attitudes.
19 On these matters, see particularly Finkelstein, Image and Reality, op. cit. See also my Middle East Illusions, op. cit., chapter 5. 20 Noam Chomsky
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On the intricacies of this affair, see Irwin M. Wall, France, the United States, and the Algerian War (Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 2001). 21 See my Fateful Triangle, op. cit., for an account of the events and the reaction to them by media and commentators. 22 On Israel’s record in Lebanon in the 1980s and 1990s, see my Pirates and Emperors, Old and New, op. cit., and Fateful Triangle, updated edition, op. cit. 23 Michael Walzer, New Republic, 6 September 1982 (his emphasis). 24 James Bennet, “A Long, Bitter Feud Is Tipping Sharon’s Way,” New York Times, 24 January 2002, sec. A, p. 3. 25 Mark Sappenfield, “Americans, Europeans Differ on Mideast Sympathies,” Christian Science Monitor, 15 April 2002, p. 1. Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA), Americans on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (College Park, Md.: University of Maryland), 8 May 2002. Online at: http://www.pipa.org/OnlineReports/IsrPalConflict/contents.html.
26 See Haydar ’Abd al-Shafi’s interview with Rashid Khalidi, “Looking Back, Looking Forward,” Journal of Palestine Studies 32, no.1 (autumn 2002): pp. 28–35. 27 Shlomo Ben-Ami, A Place for All (Hakibbutz Hameuchad, 1998). See my introduction to Roane Carey, ed., The New Intifada: Resisting Israel’s Apartheid (London and New York: Verso, 2001), reprinted in my Pirates and Emperors, Old and New, op. cit.
28 Avi Primor, “Sharon’s South African Strategy,” Ha’aretz, 19 September 2002. On current Israeli strategies, see particularly Tanya Reinhart, Israel/Palestine: How to End the War of 1948 (New York: Seven Stories Press, 2002), and Baruch Kimmerling, Politicide: Ariel Sharon’s Wars against the Palestinians (New York: Verso, 2003).
29 Akiva Eldar, “The Peace That Nearly Was at Taba,” Ha’aretz, 14 February 2002.
30 Hussein Agha and Robert Malley, “The Last Negotiation: How to End the Middle East Peace Process,” Foreign Affairs 81, no. 3 (May–June 2002): p. 10ff. 31 B’Tselem, Land Grab: Israel’s Settlement Policy in the West Bank, May 2002. Online at: http://www.btselem.org/English/Publications/Summaries/Land_Grab_Map.asp.
32 Geoffrey Aronson, Report on Israeli Settlement in the Occupied Territories 13, no. 2 (March-April 2003). Online at: http://www.fmep.org/reports/2003/v13n2.html. Noam Chomsky
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33 Cited in Christopher Adams, Guy Dinmore, and Harvey Morris, “Middle East ‘Road Map’ Launched,” Financial Times, 1 May 2003, sec. 1, p. 1. 34 “Proposal for ‘Final and Comprehensive Settlement’ to Middle East Conflict,” New York Times, 1 May 2003, sec. A, p. 7.
35 Sharmila Devi, “Budget Cuts: Israelis Strike in Protest at Austerity Package,” Financial Times, 1 May 2003, p. 7, citing Ha’aretz.
36 Harvey Morris, “Israeli Security Wall ‘Threatens to Damage Palestinian Economy,” Financial Times, 5 May 2002, p. 7. Eva Balslev and Katrin Sommer, “Case Study: Qalqilya,” News from Within (Jerusalem), October 2002. 37 Sara Roy, “The ‘Wall’ Is Not Just a Wall,” Daily Star (Beirut), 2 June 2003. On Sharon’s 1992 plan, and others across the spectrum at the same time, see the analysis by Peace Now, reviewed in World Orders Old and New, op. cit., p. 224. 38 Amira Hass, “The State Sharon Is Talking About,” Ha’aretz, 28 May 2003.
39 Greg Myre, “Sharon Defends Peace Plan Against Critics in Likud,” New York Times, 27 May 2003, sec. A, p. 12. 40 High Contracting Parties to the Fourth Geneva Convention, “Declaration” (report on Israeli settlement drafted at a conference concerning the application of international humanitarian law in the occupied Palestinian territories, Geneva, Switzerland, 15 December 2001). Online at: http://www.fmep.org/reports/2002/v12n1.html#7.
41 Cited in John Donnelly and Charles A. Radin, “Powell’s Trip Is Called a Way to Buy Time for Sharon Sweep,” Boston Globe, 9 April 2002, sec. A, p. 1. 42 “U.S. Votes against Anti-Israel Resolution at UN,” Ha’aretz, 4 December 2003; Jerusalem Post staff and news
agencies, “US Defies UN Anti-Israel Vote,” Jerusalem Post, 4 December 2003, p. 1. The votes were reported by the AP and Agence France-Presse on 3 December 2003.
43 James Bennet, “Younger Leaders Are Competing to Shape Palestinians’ Future,” New York Times, 17 March 2003, sec. A, p. 3. 44 Noam Chomsky
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Elisabeth Bumiller, “Bush Says Ousting Hussein Could Aid Peace in Mideast,” New York Times, 27 February 2003, sec. A, p. 1. 45 John Donnelly, “Afghanistan: Aid Officials Criticize Cuts in US Assistance,” Boston Globe, 11 September 2002, sec. A, p. 9. 46 Douglas Hurd, “Put Middle East Peace before War in Iraq,” Financial Times, 3 December 2002, Comment & Analysis, p. 19. 47 Ben Kaspit, “Two Years of the Intifada” (in Hebrew), part one, Ma’ariv, 6 September 2002. 48 Reuven Pedatzur, “Blessings of War,” review of Milhamot lo Korot Mei’atzman (Wars don’t just happen), by Motti Golani, Ha’aretz, 12 May 2003. Online at: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=290847&contrassID=2&subContrassID=20&s bSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y.
49 Ben Kaspit, “Shnatayim la-Intifada,” op. cit. Doron Rosenblum, “Our Friend the Bulldozer,” Ha’aretz, 26 September 2002. 50 Patrick Sloyan, “Buried Alive: U.S. Tanks Used Plows to Kill Thousands in Gulf War Trenches,” Newsday, 12 September 1991, p. 1. 51 “Quarterly Review Staff Study,” Air Universities Quarterly Review 6, no.4 (winter 1953-54). For more extensive quotes and discussion, see my Towards a New Cold War: Essays on the Current Crisis and How We Got There (New York: Pantheon Books, 1982; New Press, 2003), pp. 112–13.
52 Jawaharlal Nehru, The Discovery of India (Asia Publishing House, 1961). Stanley A. Wolpert, A New History of India, 4th ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993). Gordon Johnson, C. A. Bayly, and John F. Richards, eds., The New Cambridge History of India, 3 vols. (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1987–93). Jack Beeching, The Chinese Opium Wars, 1st American ed. (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1975). This was the immediate background of Mill’s classic essay on humanitarian intervention. See chapter 2, note 73, of Hegemony or Survival.
53 Mark Curtis, Web of Deceit, op. cit., chapter 15. 54 Kaspit, “Shnatayim la-Intifada,” op. cit.
55 On the methods of the first Intifada, see Norman Finkelstein, The Rise and Fall of Palestine: A Personal Account of the Intifada Years (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1996). See also my Fateful Triangle op. cit., chapter 8, for a personal account and Israeli sources, the latter Noam Chomsky
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extended considerably in Necessary Illusions, op. cit., Appendix 4.2. More generally, see Zachary Lockman and Joel Beinin, eds., Intifada: The Palestinian Uprising against Israeli Occupation (Boston: South End Press, 1989). 56 Yoram Peri, Davar, 10 December 1982. Araboushim is Israeli slang that is roughly equivalent to niggers or kikes. Moshe Dayan, internal government discussion, cited in Yossi Beilin, Mehiro shel Ihud (in Hebrew; Israel: Revivim, 1985), p. 42.
57 “Unbridled Force,” editorial, Ha’aretz, 16 March 2003. The conclusion will come as no surprise to those who have been reading the regular reports of its correspondents, notably Gideon Levy and Amira Hass.
NOTES TO CHAPTER 8 1 Strobe Talbott and Nayan Chanda, eds., The Age of Terror: America and the World after September 11 (New York: Basic Books, 2001). 2 For US definitions, see my “International Terrorism: Image and Reality” in Alexander George, ed., Western State Terrorism, op. cit. (later reprinted in Pirates and Emperors, Old and New, op. cit.). British definition cited by Curtis, Web of Deceit, op. cit., p. 93. 3 On the reformulation of the official definitions, see Scott Atran, “The Genesis of Suicide Terrorism,” Science 299, no. 5612 (7 March 2003): pp. 1534–39. He notes that the revised definitions still make “no principled distinction between ‘terror’ as defined by the U.S. Congress and ‘counterinsurgency’ as allowed in U.S. armed forces manuals,” one of the perennial problems in defining terror in a doctrinally suitable way. 4 McClintock, Instruments of Statecraft, op. cit., chapter 3. 5 UN Resolution 42/159, 7 December 1987. The State Department identifies 1987 as the peak year of terrorism.
6 For a remarkable illustration concerning Vietnam, see p. 193 of Hegemony or Survival. On Iraq, see ABC Middle East correspondent Charles Glass, “I Blame the British,” London Review of Books 25, no. 8 (17 April 2003). Online at: http://www.lrb.co.uk/v25/n08/glas01_.html.
7 Charles Maechling, “The Murderous Mind of the Latin Military,” Los Angeles Times, 18 March 1982. 8 Colombian Human Rights Committee, Colombia Update 1, no.4 (December 1989). See my Deterring Democracy, op. cit., pp. 130ff. 9 Noam Chomsky
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McClintock, Instruments of Statecraft, op. cit., p. 222. 10 Raymond Bonner, “Southeast Asia Remains Fertile for Al Qaeda,” New York Times, 28 October 2002, sec. A, p. 1. 11 Talbott and Chanda, Age of Terror, op. cit.
12 Martha Crenshaw, “Why America? The Globalization of Civil War”; Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay, “Nasty, Brutish, and Long: America’s War on Terrorism”; and David C. Rapoport, “The Fourth Wave: September 11 in the History of Terrorism,” Current History 100, no. 650 (December 2001): pp. 425–32, pp. 403–09, and pp. 419–25. 13 For details, see my Pirates and Emperors, Old and New, op. cit., including the added chapter in updated edition (2002). George, ed., Western State Terrorism, op. cit. On Clinton-backed Israeli invasions of Lebanon in the 1990s, beyond the illegally occupied southern region, see my Fateful Triangle,updated edition, op. cit. 14 Crenshaw, “Why America?” op. cit.
15 John F. Burns, “Ringleader of ’85 Achille Lauro Hijacking Says Killing Wasn’t His Fault,” New York Times, sec. A, p. 14. 16 Justin Huggler and Phil Reeves, “Once Upon a Time in Jenin,” The Independent (London), 25 April 2002, pp. 4–7. 17 See my Fateful Triangle, op. cit., p. 136. 18 Gloria Cooper, “Darts and Laurels,” Columbia Journalism Review 41, no. 2 (July–August 2002): pp. 14ff. Online at: http://archives.cjr.org/year/02/4/dartsandlaurels.asp.
19 See p. 52 of Hegemony or Survival. 20 Judith Miller, “South Asia Called Major Terror Hub in a Survey by U.S.,” New York Times, 30 April 2000, sec. 1, p. 1. Robert Pearson, Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 26, no.1 (winter–spring 2002).
21 See pp. 61–62 of Hegemony or Survival. 22 Jean Bethke Elshtain, “A Just War?,” Boston Globe, 6 October 2002, Ideas section; also see her Noam Chomsky
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essay in Booth and Dunne, eds., Worlds in Collision, op. cit. Much of the world will be interested to learn that the US has never engaged in the practice of “unleashing terrorists” or otherwise threatening or harming civilians. 23 Bill Keller, “The Loyal Opposition,” New York Times, 24 August 2002, sec. A, p. 13.
24 A media review by Jeff Nygaard found one reference to the Gallup poll, a brief notice in the Omaha WorldHerald that “completely misrepresented the findings.” Nygaard Notes 132 (16 November 2001). Online at: http://www.nygaardnotes.org/issues/nn0132.html . Envío (Managua, Nicaragua), October 2001.
25 Walter Pincus, “Mueller Outlines Origin, Funding of Sept. 11 Plot,” Washington Post, 6 June 2002, sec. A, p. 1. Emphases mine. 26 Abdullahi Ahmed An-Na’im, “Upholding International Legality against Islamic and American Jihad,” in Booth and Dunne, eds., Worlds in Collision, op. cit., pp. 162–171.
27 Abdul Haq, “US Bombs Are Boosting the Taliban,” edited version of 11 October 2001 interview with Anatol Lieven, Guardian (London), 2 November 2001, Comment & Analysis, p. 20. Online at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,585302,00.html. Peshawar gathering: Barry Bearak, “Leaders of the Old Afghanistan Prepare for the New,” New York Times, 25 October 2001, sec. B, p. 4; Farhan Bokhari and John Thornhill, “Traditional Leaders Call for Peace Jihad,” Financial Times(London), 25 October 2001, p. 3, and “Afghan Peace Assembly Call,” Financial Times (London), 26 October 2001, p. 2; John F. Burns, “Afghan Gathering in Pakistan Backs Future Role for King,” New York Times, 26 October 2001, sec. B, p. 4; Indira A.R. Lakshmanan, “1,000 Afghan Leaders Discuss a New Regime,” Boston Globe, 25 October 2001, sec. A, p. 24; and “Delegates Demand Bin Laden Leave,” Boston Globe, 26 October 2001, sec. A, p. 31. To learn about the Revolutionary Association of the Women of Afghanistan (RAWA), go to http://www.afghanwomensmission.org/index.shtml or http://rawa.fancymarketing.net/index.html. The relevant information was available throughout in independent (“alternative”) journals, published and electronic, including ZNet (online at: http://www.zmag.org ). For additional quotes, see “The World
after Sept. 11,” reprinted in Pirates and Emperors, Old and New, op. cit., chapter 6. 29 Larry Rohter, “In Latin America, the Cult of Revolution Wanes,” New York Times, Sunday, 18 May 2003, sec. 4 (Week in Review), p. 3. 30 Daniel Grann, “Giving ‘the Devil’ His Due,” Atlantic Monthly 287, no. 6 (June 2001): pp. 54–71. 31 Talbott and Chanda, eds., Age of Terror, op. cit., pp. xv ff. Their emphasis. They add that the problem and solution are “more complicated” but appear to accept the conclusion and regard the US-UK bombing as appropriate and properly “calibrated.”
32 Christopher Greenwood, “International Law and the ‘War against Terrorism,’” International Affairs (London) 78, no. 2 (April 2002): pp. 301–18. Thomas M. Franck, “Terrorism and the Rights of Self-Defense,” American Journal of International Law 95, no. 4 (October 2001): pp. 839–843. Noam Chomsky
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33 Michael Howard, “What’s in a Name? How to Fight Terrorism,” Foreign Affairs 81, no. 1 (January–February 2002): pp. 8ff.
34 Frank C. Schuller and Thomas D. Grant, “Terror: Measuring the Cost, Calculating the Response,” Current History 101, no. 654 (April 2002): pp. 184–86. 35 Werner Daum, German ambassador to the Sudan from 1996 to 2000, “Universalism and the West: An Agenda for Understanding,” Harvard International Review 23, no. 2 (summer 2001): pp. 19–23. Online at: http://www.hir.harvard.edu/articles/index.html?id=909. The same estimate is given by Jonathan Belke, regional director of the Near East Foundation, who has field experience in the Sudan, “A Year Later, US Attack on Factory Still Hurts Sudan,” Boston Globe, 22 August 1999, sec. F, p. 2. Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch, warned at once that the bombing had disrupted assistance to 2.4 million people at risk of starvation and had forced the indefinite postponement of “crucial” relief efforts in places where dozens of people were dying daily; letter to President Clinton, 15 September 1998. Online at: http://www.hrw.org/press98/sept/sudan915.htm. On these and other assessments and related material, see my 9-11 (New York: Seven Stories Press, 2001), pp. 45ff.
36 Christopher Hitchens, “Knowledge (and Power),” The Nation 274, no. 22 (10 June 2002): p. 9. Online at: http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml%3Fi=20020610&s=hitchens.
37 George W. Bush cited in Anthony Shadid, “US Rebuffs Second Iraq Offer on Arms Inspection,” Boston Globe, 6 August 2002, sec. A, p. 1.
38 Richard J. Aldrich, “America Used Islamists to Arm the Bosnian Muslims,” Guardian (London), 22 April 2002, Leader, p. 16.
39 National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2015, op. cit. 40 Kenneth Waltz in Booth and Dunne, eds., Worlds in Collision, op. cit. Also see p. 123 of Hegemony or Survival. 41 International lawyer for multinationals quoted by Neil MacFarquhar, “Saudi Dilemma: A Native Son, a Heinous Act,” New York Times, 5 October 2001, sec. A, p. 1. 42 Sumit Ganguly, “Putting South Asia Back Together Again,” Current History 100, no. 650 (December 2001): pp. 410–14; Philip C. Wilcox, Jr., US ambassador at large for counterterrorism, 1994–97, “The Terror,” New York Review of Books 48, no. 16 (18 October 2001); Rohan Gunaratna quoted by Thomas Powers, “Secrets of September 11,” New York Review of Books 49, no. 15 (10 October 2002). Wolfowitz quoted in Vanity Fair, interview by Sam Tennenhaus, 9 May 2003; he is referring specifically to the US presence in Saudi Arabia.
43 Noam Chomsky
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“Death in Riyadh: Crushing al-Qaeda Will Require Might and Right,” editorial, Financial Times (London), 14 May 2003, p. 22; P. W. Singer, “America and the Islamic World,” Current History 101, no. 658 (November 2002): pp. 355–64; Daniel Byman, “The War on Terror Requires Subtler Weapons,” Financial Times (London), 27 May 2003, p. 17.
44 Anthony Shadid, “Old Arab Friends Turn Away From U.S.,” Washington Post, 26 February 2003, sec. A, p. 1. 45 James A. Bill and Rebecca Bill Chavez, “The Politics of Incoherence: The United States and the Middle East,” Middle East Journal 56, no. 4 (autumn 2002): pp. 562–75. Online at: http://www.mideasti.org/pdf/Bill%20galley562-575.pdf.
46 David Johnston and Don Van Natta, Jr., “U.S. Officials See Signs of a Revived Al Qaeda,” New York Times, 17 May 2003, sec. A, p. 1. Byman, “The War on Terror Requires Subtler Weapons,” Financial Times, 27 May 2003, p. 17. Don Van Natta, Jr., and Desmond Butler, “Anger on Iraq Seen as New Qaeda Recruiting Tool,” New York Times, 16 March 2003, sec. 1, p. 1. Scott Atran, “Who Wants to Be a Martyr?,” New York Times, 5 May 2003, sec. A, p. 23. 47 Faye Bowers, “Al Qaeda May Be Rebuilding,” Christian Science Monitor, 5 May 2003, p. 1. 48 Jason Burke, “The Return of al Qaeda: The Tentacles of Terror,” Observer (London), Sunday, 18 May 2003, p. 17. Jessica Stern, “How America Created a Terrorist Haven,” New York Times, 20 August 2003, sec. A, p. 21. 49 For further quotes and background, see Gilbert Achcar, The Clash of Barbarisms: September 11 and the Making of the New World Disorder (New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002), pp. 58ff. That these are their goals is also assumed by Washington planners; see Wolfowitz interview, Vanity Fair, op. cit. 50 Michael Kranish, “US Company Has Long History with Saudis,” Boston Globe, 15 May 2003, sec. A, p. 20; Joseph B. Treaster, “Compound Was a Lure for Terror, Experts Say,” New York Times, 14 May 2003, sec. A, p. 12. 51 Michael Ignatieff, “The Burden,” New York Times Magazine, 5 January 2003, sec. 6, pp. 22–30. 52 Ami Ayalon interview in Le Monde, 22 December 2001, reprinted in Roane Carey and Jonathan Shanin, The Other Israel: Voices of Refusal and Dissent (New York: New Press, 2002). Uri Sagie, Lights within the Fog (in Hebrew; Tel Aviv: Yedioth Ahronoth-Chemed, 1998), pp. 300ff.
53 Yehoshaphat Harkabi cited by Amnon Kapeliouk, Le Monde diplomatique, February 1986.
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54 For sources and background discussion, see my World Orders, Old and New, op. cit., pp. 79, 201ff. Now also Salim Yaqub, “Imperious Doctrines: U.S.-Arab Relations from Dwight D. Eisenhower to George W. Bush,” Diplomatic History 26, no. 4 (fall 2002): pp. 571–91. 55 Peter Waldman et al., “The Question in the Rubble: Why Us?,” Wall Street Journal, 14 September 2001, sec. A, p. 6; see also Waldman and Hugh Pope, “Worlds Apart: Some Muslims Fear War on Terrorism Is Really a War on Them,” Wall Street Journal, 21 September 2001, sec. A, p. 1. See my 9-11, op. cit., and, for more detail, Middle East Illusions, op. cit., chapter 10. 56 Ahmed Rashid, “Is Terror Worse Than Oppression,” Far Eastern Economic Review (Hong Kong) 165, no. 30 (1 August 2002): pp. 12–15. American University of Cairo Professor El Lozy, writer Azizuddin El-Kaissouni, and Warren Bass of the Council on Foreign Relations quoted by Joyce Koh, “‘Two-Faced’ US Policy Blamed for Arab Hatred,” Straits Times (Singapore), 14 August 2002.
57 Youssef M. Ibrahim, “Democracy: We Must Be Careful What We Wish For,” Washington Post, National Weekly Edition, 31 March 2003; and, “Democracy: Be Careful What You Wish For,” Washington Post, March 23, 2002, sec. B, p. 3.
58 Jonathan Steele, “It Feels Like 1967 All Over Again,” Guardian (London), 9 April 2003, Comment & Analysis, p. 22. 59 Susan Sachs, “Egyptian Intellectual Speaks of the Arab World’s Despair,” New York Times, 8 April 2003, sec. B, p. 1. NOTES TO CHAPTER 9 1 John Rockwell, “The Aftermath: Peering Into the Abyss of the Future,” New York Times, 23 September 2001, sec. 2, p. 1. 2 Paul Krugman, “A No-Win Outcome,” New York Times, 21 December 2001, sec. A, p. 39. 3 STRATCOM, Essentials of Post–Cold War Deterrence, 1995. Declassified text online at: http://www.nautilus.org/nukestrat/USA/Advisory/Essentials95.txt. For more extensive quotes, see my New Military Humanism, op. cit., chapter 6. On subsequent presidential directives, see Center for Defense Information, Defense Monitor 29, no. 3 (2000). See Morton Mintz, “Two Minutes to Launch,” American Prospect 12, no. 4 (26 February 2001): pp. 25–29, on the legislative bar to de-alerting. Online at: http://www.prospect.org/print/V12/4/mintz-m.html. On the 1969 alert, intended to “signal” to Moscow US intentions in Vietnam, see Scott D. Sagan and Jeremi Suri, “The Madman Nuclear Alert: Secrecy, Signaling, and Safety in October 1969,” International Security 27, no. 4 (spring 2003): pp. 150–83. The most crucial events ignored were a serious Russia-China border conflict, which might have led to Russian misinterpretation of the “signal,” with grim consequences.
4 Noam Chomsky
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See chapter 5, note 29, of Hegemony or Survival. 5 Scott Peterson, “Loose Nukes Get Shortchanged?,” Christian Science Monitor, 9 May 2001, p. 6; Walter Pincus, “Bush Targets Russia Nuclear Programs for Cuts,” Washington Post, 18 March 2001, sec. A, p. 23. A terse announcement suggested a possible reversal of the policy, in reaction to 9-11; Elisabeth Bumiller, “U.S. Drops Threat to Cut Aid to Russia For Disarming,” New York Times, 28 December 2001, sec. A, p. 7. On successes of cooperative threat reduction initiated by Senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar, see Michael Krepon, “Dominators Rule,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59, no. 1 (January-February 2003): pp. 55–60. Online at: http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2003/jf03/jf03krepon.html.
6 Steven Lee Myers, “Study Said to Find U.S. Missile Shield Might Incite China,” New York Times, 10 August 2000, sec. A, p. 1; Bob Drogin and Tyler Marshall, “Missile Shield Analysis Warns of Arms Buildup,” Los Angeles Times, 19 May 2000, p. 1; Michael Byers, “Back to the Cold War?,” London Review of Books 22, no. 12 (22 June 2000). Online at: http://www.lrb.co.uk/v22/n12/byer01_.html. See also Michael R. Gordon and Steven Lee Myers, “Risk of Arms Race Seen in U.S. Design of Missile Defense,” New York Times, 28 May 2000, sec. 1, p. 1, and Glaser and Fetter, “National Missile Defense,” op. cit.
7 David E. Sanger, “U.S. Will Drop Objections To China’s Missile Buildup,” New York Times, 2 September 2001, sec. 1, p. 1; Sanger, “U.S. Restates Its Stand On Missiles In China,” New York Times, 5 September 2001, sec. A, p. 3; Jane Perlez, “Chinese Firm Is Punished By the U.S. For Arms Sale,” New York Times, 2 September 2001, sec. 1, p. 9. Clinton: see William J. Broad, “U.S.-Russian Talks Revive Old Debates on Nuclear Warnings,” New York Times, 1 May 2000, sec. A, p. 8.
8 Steinbruner and Lewis, “The Unsettled Legacy of the Cold War,” op. cit.
9 David Ruppe, “Nuclear Weapons: RAND Report Says Accidental Launch Threat Growing,” Global Security Newswire, 22 May 2003. Online at: http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/newswires/2003_5_22.html. Rand Corporation, Beyond the Nuclear Shadow, May 2003. Online at: http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1666/. Paul Webster, “Just Like Old Times,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59, no. 4 (July–August 2003): p. 30. Online at: http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2003/ja03/ja03webster.html.
10 Judith Miller, “Study Urges More Action to Cut Risks >From Weapons Stockpiles,” New York Times, 20 January 2003, sec. A, p. 14.
11 Krepon, “Dominators Rule,” op. cit.
12 Michael R. Gordon, “Nuclear Arms: For Deterrence or Fighting?,” New York Times, 11 March 2002, sec. A, p. 1. Eric Schmitt, “U.S. Tries To Explain New Policy For A-Bomb,” 11 March 2002, sec. A, p. 8. William M. Arkin, “The Nuclear Option in Iraq,” Los Angeles Times, 26 January 2003, sec. M, p. 1.
13 Carl Hulse and James Dao, “Cold War Long Over, Bush Administration Examines Steps to a Revamped Arsenal,” New York Times, 29 May 2003, sec. A, p. 23. Noam Chomsky
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14 Scott Baldauf,“US May Stoke Asian Arms Race,” Christian Science Monitor, 15 May 2003, p. 6. 15 Peter Slevin, “Analysts: New Strategy Courts Unseen Dangers; First Strike Could Be Precedent for Other Nations,” Washington Post, 22 September 2002, sec. A, p. 1. 16 McGeorge Bundy, Danger and Survival: Choices about the Bomb in the First Fifty Years (New York: Random House, 1988), p. 326. Bundy is skeptical about the prospects, but his subjective judgment does not bear on the point here.
17 Adam B. Ulam, “A Few Unresolved Mysteries about Stalin and the Cold War in Europe: A Modest Agenda for Research,” Journal of Cold War Studies 1, no. 1 (winter 1999): pp. 100–16. Online at: http://matilde.ingentaselect.com/vl=2491866/cl=80/nw=1/rpsv/catchword/mitpress/15203972/v1n1/s5 /p110. Melvyn P. Leffler, “Inside Enemy Archives: The Cold War Reopened,” Foreign Affairs 75, no. 4 (July– August 1996): pp. 120–35. James Warburg, Germany: Key to Peace (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1953), pp. 189ff.
18 See chapter 4, note 3, of Hegemony or Survival. 19 Kenneth N. Waltz, “America as a Model for the World? A Foreign Policy Perspective,” PS: Political Science & Politics 24, no. 4 (December 1991): pp. 667–70. Garthoff and Kaufmann cited in my Deterring Democracy, op. cit., p. 26.
20 See particularly US Space Command, Vision for 2020, February 1997. Online at: http://www.fas.org/spp/military/docops/usspac/.
21 High Frontier (Heritage Foundation) cited by Gordon Mitchell, “The American National Missile Defence: Political Implications and Impact on Disarmament,” presentation to the Centre for Defence Studies, Royal Defence College (Brussels, Belgium), 30 January 2001. See Gordon R. Mitchell, Strategic Deception: Rhetoric, Science, and Politics in Missile Defense Advocacy (East Lansing, Mich.: Michigan State University Press, 2000).
22 Garthoff, A Journey through the Cold War, op. cit., pp. 357–58.
23 Jack Hitt, “Battlefield: Space,” New York Times Magazine, 5 August 2001, sec. 6, pp. 30–39, quoting intelligence consultant George Friedman. 24 David Pugliese, National Post (Toronto), 24 May 2000. See also Pugliese, “Missile System to ‘Preserve’ American Dominance: Threat of Rogue Attack Highly Unlikely, Defence Documents Say,” Ottawa Citizen, 24 May 2000, sec. A, p. 1.
25 Sha Zukang cited by Michael R. Gordon, “China, Fearing a Bolder U.S., Takes Aim on Proposed National Noam Chomsky
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Missile Shield,” New York Times, 29 April 2001, sec. 1, p. 10. EP-3 quote from William M. Arkin, “The Last Word: Nuclear Posturing,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 57, no. 3 (May–June 2001): p. 80. Online at: http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2001/mj01/mj01lastword.html.
26 Andrew J. Bacevich, “Different Drummers, Same Drum,” National Interest, no. 64 (summer 2001): pp. 67–77; Lawrence F. Kaplan, “Offensive Line,” New Republic 224, no. 11 (12 March 2001): p. 20. Rand study cited by Kaplan.
27 See pp. 42–43 of Hegemony or Survival. 28 Michael Krepon, “Lost in Space: The Misguided Drive Toward Antisatellite Weapons,” Foreign Affairs 80, no. 3 (May–June 2001): pp. 2–8. Online at: http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20010501facomment4763/michaelkrepon/lost-in-space-the-misguided-drive-toward-antisatellite-weapons.html. See also his comments in Hitt, “Battlefield Space,” op. cit. Gordon Mitchell, “Japan-U.S. Missile Defense Collaboration: Rhetorically Delicious, Deceptively Dangerous,” Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 25, no. 1 (winter 2001): pp. 85–108, citing Charles Perrow. Online at: http://www.pitt.edu/~gordonm/JPubs/JapanTMD.pdf. See also Karl Grossman, Weapons in Space (New York: Seven Stories, 2001).
29 Air Force Space Command, Strategic Master Plan (SMP) FY04 and Beyond, 5 November 2002. Online at: http://www.peterson.af.mil/hqafspc/library/AFSPCPAOffice/Final%2004%20SMP--Signed!.pdf.
30 William M. Arkin, “The Best Defense,” Los Angeles Times, 14 July 2002, sec. M, p. 1. Michael J. Sniffen, AP, “Pentagon Developing System to Track Every Vehicle in a City,” 1 July 2003. 31 Hannah Hoag, “Neuroengineering: Remote Control,” Nature 423, no. 6942 (19 June 2003): pp. 796–98. 32 See chapter 7, note 10, of Hegemony or Survival. 33 Tomas Valasek, “Europe’s Missile Defense Options,” CDI Defense Monitor 30, no. 3 (March 2001): pp. 6ff. Online at: http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=1602&StartRow=1&ListRows=10&appendURL =&Orderby=D.DateLastUpdated%20deSC&programID=75&IssueID=0&Issue=&Date_From=&Date_To=&K eywords=valasek&ContentType=&Author=&from_page=documents.cfm. Mitchell, “Japan-U.S. Missile Defense Collaboration,” op. cit.
34 See p. 121 of Hegemony or Survival. Agence France-Presse, “Annan Pleads for Accord at UN Disarmament Conference,” 23 January 2001. Reuters, 15 February 2001; reported in the Deseret News (Salt Lake City), virtually the only coverage of the 2001 conference meetings in the US media. Frances Williams, “China Calls for Ban on ‘Weaponisation’ of Space,” Financial Times, 8 June 2001, p. 6.
35 Judith Miller, “Chemical Weapons Ban May Suffer for Lack of Dues From Treaty’s Parties,” New York Times, Noam Chomsky
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Hegemony or Survival
27 April 2001, sec. A, p. 7; Marlise Simons, “Money Short for Battle on Chemicals Used in War,”New York Times, 5 October 2001, sec. A, p. 9; Michael R. Gordon and Judith Miller, “U.S. Germ Warfare Review Faults Plan on Enforcement,”New York Times, 20 May 2001, sec. 1, p. 5; Richard Waddington, Reuters, “U.S. Snarls Germ Warfare Talks,” Boston Globe, 8 December 2001. Oliver Meier, “Neither Trust Nor Verify, Says U.S.,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 57, no. 6 (November–December 2001): pp. 19–22. Michael R. Gordon, “Germ Warfare Talks Open in London; U.S. Is the Pariah,” New York Times, 24 July 2001, sec. A, p. 11. See also William J. Broad and Judith Miller, “U.S. Recently Produced Anthrax in a Highly Lethal Powder Form,” New York Times, 13 December 2001, sec. A, p. 1.
36 Mark Wheelis and Malcolm Dando, “Back to Bioweapons?,” and Catherine Auer, “Killer ‘Non-Lethals,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59, no. 1 (January–February 2003): pp. 40–46. Online at: http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2003/jf03/jf03wheelis.html. On Soviet programs in gross violation of treaty obligations, see William Broad, Judith Miller, and Stephen Engelberg, Germs: Biological Weapons and America’s Secret War (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001).
37 “Going it Alone,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 58, no. 4 (July–August 2002): pp. 36–37, reviewing these and similar administration initiatives. George Perkovich, “Bush’s Nuclear Revolution: A Regime Change in Nonproliferation,”Foreign Affairs 82, no. 3 (March–April 2003): pp. 2ff.
38 See p. 121 of Hegemony or Survival. 39 Rachel Corrie was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza in March 2003 with a US-supplied bulldozer, one of Israel’s most destructive weapons; see p. 181 of Hegemony or Survival. Murdered might be the more appropriate term, to judge by eyewitness reports. The killing of an American citizen by US clients using US equipment was not considered worthy of inquiry, even more than the barest report. 40 Cited by Judy Toth, “Bertrand Russell’s Relevance Today,” Bertrand Russell Society Quarterly, February 2003. Online version of Toth’s 28 March 1999 speech at: http://www.ethicalstl.org/platform032899.shtml.
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In one of five Thanksgiving-based articles, a Zone Leader provides aspects of Java programming language for which he is thankful to utilize on a daily basis.
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John Vester
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Nov. 25, 19 · Java Zone · Analysis
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What are you thankful for this year?
In the United States, the end of the month of November is when time is taken to perform a retrospective-like event called Thanksgiving. What started out as a dedication to giving thanks for the blessings of the harvest and preceding year has transformed into a time to simply be thankful for one's blessings.
Since Thanksgiving is recognized on the fourth Thursday in the month of November, I thought I would introduce a five-part technical twist with the following Thanksgiving-focused articles:
Why I am Thankful for Java (this article)
Why I am Thankful for Agile
Why I am Thankful for Web Development
Why I am Thankful for Cloud Computing
Why I am Thankful for DevOps
I hope you find time to check out the other articles, as well!
Stream API
As I've noted in my "I Want My Code to Be Boring" article, "I fully expect you to yawn when you see the aspects of the Java language that I am employing most of the time." However, one aspect of Java 8 that I've really embraced is the Stream API:
When I need to find a value in a Collection-based class, I can leverage the stream functionality:
myObject = objectList.stream()
.filter(thisObject -> valueToFind.equals(thisObject.getValueToFind()))
.findAny()
.orElse(null);
If I need to create a new List from a property in another List, I can leverage the stream functionality:
List<Long> idList = myList.stream().map(MyObject::getId).collect(Collectors.toList());
If I want to loop through the values of a List and do some work, I can also use the stream functionality:
List<SomeObject> newObjects = new ArrayList<>();
myList.stream().forEach(id -> {
itemList.stream().filter(object -> object.getId() == id).findAny().ifPresent(newObjects::add);
});
Project Lombok
After spending years of writing a great deal of boilerplate code, I have become so thankful that Project Lombok (and other similar options) exist. Using Lombok, I no longer have to create getters and setters for an object:
public class MyObject {
private long id;
private String name;
public MyObject() { }
public MyObject(long id, String name) {
this.id = id;
this.name = name;
}
public long getId() {
return this.id;
}
public void setId(long id) {
this.id = id;
}
public String getName() {
return this.name;
}
public void setName(String name) {
this.name = name;
}
}
I can simply use an annotation ... and Project Lombok has options for all arguments constructor and no arguments constructor too:
@Data
@AllArgsConstructor
@NoArgsConstructor
public class MyObject {
private long id;
private String name;
}
JPA Repository
The Spring Data JPA Repository interface is something in which I am very grateful. The days of writing a DAO interface and implementation class, where a query is executed and the results are cast into an object or a collection, are no longer a requirement. With this departure comes the benefit of no longer needing to write even more boilerplate code.
Consider the following JPA Repository examples:
public interface MyObjectRepository extends JpaRepository<MyObject, Long> {
List<MyObject> findBySomeAttributeId(Long attributeId);
@Query(value = "SELECT ... ", nativeQuery = true)
List<MyObject> findUsingSomeComplexQuery(Long id);
}
If the MyObject has a Long someAttribute value, the findBySomeAttributeId() method will perform the query and return a List<MyObject> which matches the attributeId provided. No need to write the query and handle the result set either.
In the findUsingSomeComplexQuery() method, a native SQL query can be provided and executed in the same manner.
What is even cooler about the JPA Repository is that it is possible to use built-in functionality as well:
Optional<MyObject> optional = myObjectRepository.findById(id);
By providing a valid id in the example above, an Optional is returned, which will contain the expected MyObject ... without having to add anything to the MyObjectRepository interface.
Spring Boot
As a Java developer creating RESTful APIs, I must give thanks to Spring Boot and all the hard work provided by the amazing team at Pivotal software.
Honestly, a month-long series of articles could be penned focused solely on the greatness that is Spring Boot.
If you have not had an opportunity to use Spring Boot, I highly suggest taking 15-30 minutes to create your very first Spring Boot project, then start peeling back layers of functionality to help build an amazing API for your client or customer to utilize.
IntelliJ IDEA Ultimate Edition
So many times the phrase "you get what you pay for" becomes a topic of conversation. In terms of developer IDE's, I fully believe this is the case. While there are certainly some very good IDE's that are available at no cost to the developer, the small cost one has to pay for IntelliJ IDEA is certainly outweighed by the value returned to not only the developer — but those projects being completed by the developer using the Ultimate Edition of IntelliJ IDEA.
For quite some time, I have worked on projects where developers utilized one of those free IDE's. In every case, merely opening up the code during the PR stage leads me to suggestions and corrections the free IDE's fail to locate. Furthermore, the Ultimate Edition also provides feedback when code is being introduced which will be non-performant - offering suggestions to provide a better code stream.
In 2003, my friend Darren told me to start using IntelliJ over another IDE I was using at the time. The biggest benefit for us back then, was a very small memory footprint. In fact, I am pretty sure it was 128k of RAM. Since that time, I have been an avid use of IntelliJ's projects — especially the use of the IDEA Ultimate Edition on all of my projects since 2014.
Like the Spring Boot thoughts above, I highly recommend taking IntelliJ IDEA for a test drive. If you are like me, you will see the value well before the free-trial expires.
Conclusion
With this article and the other articles listed in the introduction, I was inspired by realizing just how fortunate I am to be employed in an industry that has so many wonderful facets that can be employed on a daily basis. Since Information Technology is an industry of constant change, I fully believe I could revisit this topic on a yearly basis and provide another series of articles for which I am thankful.
As a kid growing up in the United States, there were two Thanksgiving television specials that I looked forward to watching each year: A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving and the Brady Brunch Thanksgiving episode (The Un-Underground Movie, season two, episode four). While most have likely seen A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving, I thought I would include a link to Greg Brady's school project, "Our Pilgrim Fathers", from that episode:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygoLKkLExAg&has_verified=1
My hope is that you can take time this month to reflect on the things by which you are thankful. While I am blessed to work in such an amazing field, I am truly blessed that each of you have taken time to read my article.
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0.999934 |
President Donald Trump has warned that the US pandemic will probably "get worse before it gets better", as he revived his coronavirus briefings.
Mr Trump also asked all Americans to wear face coverings, saying "they'll have an effect" and show "patriotism".
He was not wearing a mask at the briefing, but has previously downplayed such personal protective equipment.
The president's aides have reportedly asked him to adopt a new tone as virus caseloads spike across the US.
The daily White House news conferences ended soon after Mr Trump suggested in April during freewheeling remarks from the podium that the virus might be treated by injecting disinfectant into people.
In his first White House coronavirus briefing for months on Tuesday, a more scripted president echoed what public health officials on his pandemic task force have been saying as he warned: "It will probably unfortunately get worse before it gets better."
He added: "We're asking everybody that when you are not able to socially distance, wear a mask, get a mask.
"Whether you like the mask or not, they have an impact, they'll have an effect and we need everything we can get."
The president is facing an uphill climb to re-election in November against Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, according to opinion polls.
Media playback is unsupported on your device
Mr Trump appeared on Tuesday without the medical experts who used to address the briefings. He kept his remarks brief and focused, avoiding sparring with reporters who asked a few questions.
He continued: "We're asking Americans to use masks, socially distance and employ vigorous hygiene – wash your hands every chance you get, while sheltering high risk populations.
"We are imploring young Americans to avoid packed bars and other crowded indoor gatherings. Be safe and be smart."
Mr Trump has been reluctant to wear a mask himself in front of the media, claiming that some people only wore such face coverings as a political statement against him. The press pictured him recently wearing a mask for the first time as he visited a military hospital.
Sticking to the script
Donald Trump's afternoon coronavirus press briefings are back. Regardless of what the president said during his brief appearance on Tuesday, the simple fact of their return speaks volumes about the dismal course the pandemic has taken in the US in the past three months.
Cases are rising, particularly in the south and west, perhaps most directly as a result of the administration's support for states to end mitigation measures before public-health benchmarks were met.
And so the president, sticking closely to his prepared remarks, sombrely noted that things "will probably get worse before they get better". After previously dismissing a mask-wearing reporter as being "politically correct", he now encouraged people to wear face coverings.
A number of recent polls have indicated that sinking public support for the president's handling of the virus has been dragging down his re-election prospects. The White House reportedly hopes getting the president back in front of the American people willRead More – Source
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A bakery south of Edmonton was still cooking Friday - despite a provincial closure order - and owner Jen Foster said it was her busiest day ever.
Bake My Day had its food handling permit suspended by Alberta Health Services on Oct. 8.
The owner admitted she was refusing to check the vaccination status of patrons before serving them inside because she argues it’s not her business to do so.
Alberta's restrictions exemptions program states that indoor dining is only allowed after proof of vaccination for each customer is checked by restaurant staff.
The bakery received thousands of messages of support online after CTV News Edmonton published the story Thursday.
“We’ve had a lineup running out the door all day since 10 a.m. this morning and we’ve been running out of everything, and we’ve been trying to restock and restock, so people don’t come disappointed. It's overwhelming, in a good sense,” Foster said.
The AHS order says the bakery broke COVID-19 orders related to capacity, masking and distancing, although the documents posted online did not specify exactly which rules were broken.
Foster had not heard back from AHS about the status of the order, but said she closed indoor dining to keep her takeout and delivery business going.
With files from CTV News Edmonton’s David Ewasuk
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