<p>Layoff rates in the US are quite low (eg jobless claims this morning at 233k ) remain quite low.  The rise in unemployment rate appears to be due to rise in long term unemployed , rather than some new effect such as AI.  Doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen in the future, but no evidence yet.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-08-08T21:40:14.560Z
2024-08-08T21:40:14.560Z
dm63
<p>Currently there are big concerns regarding possible recession in the USA maily based on growth of joblessness and reductions in payrolls. At the same time, other indicators do not show any economic slowdown. Can this reduction in payrolls be due to the AI replacing personnel?</p>
<p>If so, can it lead to recession?</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-08-08T16:02:36.777Z
A more direct cause would probably be the monetary policy implemented to dampen inflation. The fact that companies replace personnel with AI can be explained by the companies having efficiency gains by doing this. This explanation would not lead one to expect a recession, more the opposite.
Jesper Hybel
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2024-08-08T16:39:35.180Z
@JesperHybel but does not reduction of payrolls reduce consumer activity?
Anixx
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-08-08T17:04:13.320Z
But you have not documented that the reduction in payrolls is due to AI. So I can answer 'yes' to your question and still hold that AI does not create a recession. AI could create winners and losers - (like robots: https://www.urbaneconomics.nl/industrial-robots-on-workers-winners-and-losers/) - still what is the net effect of AI? If AI is increasing efficiency my economic intuition tells me it the cake gets bigger so the winners win more than the losers lose. So I would still ask you to demonstrate that the fact that payrolls are decreasing is due to AI.
Jesper Hybel
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-08-08T17:32:58.897Z
And of course, this is exactly what you are asking ... but I am not aware of any documentation showing that the net effect of AI is to reduce payrolls. I'm not saying it doesn't. I'm just stating a reason not to expect it to do so.
Jesper Hybel
CC BY-SA 4.0
2024-08-08T20:55:16.847Z
There is a recent paper by Daron Acemoglu, an important economist, about the macroeconomics effects of AI. Acemoglu seems to believe that in the medium run these effect are probably not trivial but modest. https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2024-04/The%20Simple%20Macroeconomics%20of%20AI.pdf
BakerStreet
<united-states><recession>
Can the current rise in joblessness in the US be caused by the AI replacement?
Anixx
# Can the current rise in joblessness in the US be caused by the AI replacement?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2024-08-08)

Currently there are big concerns regarding possible recession in the USA maily based on growth of joblessness and reductions in payrolls. At the same time, other indicators do not show any economic slowdown. Can this reduction in payrolls be due to the AI replacing personnel?

If so, can it lead to recession?

**Tags:** united-states, recession
> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: A more direct cause would probably be the monetary policy implemented to dampen inflation. The fact that companies replace personnel with AI can be explained by the companies having efficiency gains by doing this. This explanation would not lead one to expect a recession, more the opposite.  
> **username_0**: @JesperHybel but does not reduction of payrolls reduce consumer activity?  
> **username_1**: But you have not documented that the reduction in payrolls is due to AI. So I can answer 'yes' to your question and still hold that AI does not create a recession. AI could create winners and losers - (like robots: https://www.urbaneconomics.nl/industrial-robots-on-workers-winners-and-losers/) - still what is the net effect of AI? If AI is increasing efficiency my economic intuition tells me it the cake gets bigger so the winners win more than the losers lose. So I would still ask you to demonstrate that the fact that payrolls are decreasing is due to AI.  
> **username_1**: And of course, this is exactly what you are asking ... but I am not aware of any documentation showing that the net effect of AI is to reduce payrolls. I'm not saying it doesn't. I'm just stating a reason not to expect it to do so.  
> **username_2**: There is a recent paper by Daron Acemoglu, an important economist, about the macroeconomics effects of AI. Acemoglu seems to believe that in the medium run these effect are probably not trivial but modest. https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2024-04/The%20Simple%20Macroeconomics%20of%20AI.pdf  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_3 on 2024-08-08. Score: 1

Layoff rates in the US are quite low (eg jobless claims this morning at 233k ) remain quite low. The rise in unemployment rate appears to be due to rise in long term unemployed , rather than some new effect such as AI. Doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen in the future, but no evidence yet.


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