<blockquote>
<p>Can models and simulations based on economic data predict when China's economy will overtake that of the United States?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Trivially yes, the source you cite shows a model with one such prediction.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>And what effect did the outbreak of coronavirus have on the predicted outcome?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>China was growing faster than US before Covid pandemic, those <a href="https://cebr.com/service/macroeconomic-forecasting/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">CEBR</a> estimates show it will be growing faster than US despite the pandemic. So other than shifting the date at which China’s GDP catches up with US (due to change in growth rates) not much.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Will China take over US economy?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As long as growth rate of Chinese economy will continue to be larger than growth rate of US economy yes - if one economy grows faster than the other it’s mathematically inevitable. If the situation would change then no. These are forecasts not divinations. There is no guarantee China economy will continue to grow in the future.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-10-19T17:56:03.047Z
The United States is probably implementing its plans to prevent it.
IvettsRonco
CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-10-19T15:38:55.807Z
2021-10-19T15:38:55.807Z
1muflon1
<p>I recently read an article about China's economic progress:
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55454146" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid</a></p>
<p>Can models and simulations based on economic data predict when China's economy will overtake that of the United States?</p>
<p>And what effect did the outbreak of coronavirus have on the predicted outcome?</p>
<p>Will China take over US economy?</p>

<economic-growth><nonexpert><united-states><covid-19-crisis><china>
Can economic models predict China overtaking the United States?
IvettsRonco
# Can economic models predict China overtaking the United States?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2021-10-19)

I recently read an article about China's economic progress:
[Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55454146)

Can models and simulations based on economic data predict when China's economy will overtake that of the United States?

And what effect did the outbreak of coronavirus have on the predicted outcome?

Will China take over US economy?

**Tags:** economic-growth, nonexpert, united-states, covid-19-crisis, china

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2021-10-19. Score: 1 | Accepted answer

> Can models and simulations based on economic data predict when China's economy will overtake that of the United States?

Trivially yes, the source you cite shows a model with one such prediction.

> And what effect did the outbreak of coronavirus have on the predicted outcome?

China was growing faster than US before Covid pandemic, those [CEBR](https://cebr.com/service/macroeconomic-forecasting/) estimates show it will be growing faster than US despite the pandemic. So other than shifting the date at which China’s GDP catches up with US (due to change in growth rates) not much.

> Will China take over US economy?

As long as growth rate of Chinese economy will continue to be larger than growth rate of US economy yes - if one economy grows faster than the other it’s mathematically inevitable. If the situation would change then no. These are forecasts not divinations. There is no guarantee China economy will continue to grow in the future.

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: The United States is probably implementing its plans to prevent it.  

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