<p>One would need access to stock price index data to make definitive statements. There are probably studies doing such analysis. However, I will make some rather safe generalised comments.</p>

<p>Firstly, we should expect differences in behaviour between the gold standard era and the present, as well as between developed and developing markets.</p>

<p>My expertise is with floating currency, developed countries. And the following statements appear safe to say.</p>

<ul>
<li>Other than Japan, there has been no extended period of falling CPI (“deflation”) outside of recessions/global crises in the floating currency era. Pre-2020, that deflation was mainly due to falling oil prices, core CPI remained positive. </li>
<li>Stock markets tend to fall in recessions, for many reasons. Most modern recessions have been associated with financial crises, and leveraged investors needed to cover positions. This means that stock prices can be lower than fundamentals.</li>
<li>The deflation in Japan was extremely mild, and I would guess that there were some periods of rising stock prices (although the Japanese stock market was in a secular bear market after the bubble pop in the early 1990s) coinciding with deflation. Someone with access to Japanese financial data would have to verify
what happaned.</li>
</ul>

<p>As such, we have no real guidance for what sort of “deflation” can happen in a floating currency sovereign. However, it is very hard to see what significant difference a deflation of -1% has versus an inflation of 1% for equity valuations (with those rates being similar to historical post-1990s experience). Stocks could rise and fall based on the moods of stock investors. The difference in expected nominal growth rates can easily be counter-acted by lower discount rates.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-18T16:09:09.887Z
2020-04-18T16:09:09.887Z
Brian Romanchuk
<p><em>Usually</em> when inflation rises the stock market rises with it. The second point i want bring your attention to before i ask my question is when there are stimulus measure enacted by the government, thereby increasing the government deficit and there being a corollary between government spending and asset prices. </p>

<p>If there is a scenario where the economy enters a period of deflation, does this necessarily mean that asset prices will depress? Or could this be avoided where asset prices stay the same or keep rising ?</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-17T19:40:50.790Z
Your statements about there hardly being any exceptions to inflation rising implying stock prices going up is controversial. The first paragraph should probably be deleted, as it is a distraction unrelated to the question. Also, the phrase “enters a period of deflationary cycle” does not make sense. “Entering a period of deflation” might be what you mean to say, but that is also a vague statement.
Brian Romanchuk
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-18T02:23:47.210Z
@BrianRomanchuk: "when inflation rises the stock market rises with it". I think in nominal terms that's probably not very controversial. In real terms, though... The same unclarity issue plagues the 2nd part of the q here.
fantastic peace and prosperity
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-18T04:00:03.573Z
In re 1st para https://www.nber.org/chapters/c11335.pdf  "when the inflation rate is steady, share prices rise in proportion to the
price level to maintain a constant ratio of share prices to real earnings. In
contrast, an increase in the expected future rate of inflation causes a
concurrent fall in the ratio of share prices to current earnings. Although
share prices then rise from this lower level at the higher rate of inflation,
the ratio of share prices to real earnings is permanently lower." [cont']
fantastic peace and prosperity
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-18T04:02:02.550Z
"This
permanent reduction in the price-earnings ratio occurs because, under
prevailing tax rules, inflation raises the effective tax rate on corporate source income"
fantastic peace and prosperity
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-18T11:14:06.210Z
@Fizz I believe there was a decent bear market in the 1970s - when inflation was rising. Saying that fair value should rise is not the same thing as stock prices actually rising. Given the imprecision of the statement, someone with access to stock price data could find plenty of counter-examples. The poster has *one* example of an alleged law of market pricing.
Brian Romanchuk
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-18T14:55:13.600Z
@BrianRomanchuk There are examples but again when discussing economics, there is hardly any statement you can make where counter examples cannot be found. Such as the "Free Markets are efficient for price discovery"; in reality there are countries with most debt but with the strongest currency and there are countries with the most foreign reserves but with the weakest currency. This is an example where by even saying free markets are efficient you can counter it, my question is in general and applicable in most cases.
Slartibartfast
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-18T14:55:16.463Z
I would also like to point out here that 70s style inflation was a result of external shock and not government's monitary policy, again in general. :)
Slartibartfast
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-18T15:19:30.900Z
@newcoder This is not a website for chatting about economics, the objective is to have clear questions and answers. You are inserting highly debatable assertions into a *question*. There is a reason why there is a vote to close this question, and rather than making dubious assertions in the comments, you might as well try to fix the question.
Brian Romanchuk
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-04-18T15:48:53.457Z
@BrianRomanchuk I have updated the question as per your suggestion.
Slartibartfast
<asset-pricing><deflation>
Does deflation mean drop in asset prices?
Slartibartfast
# Does deflation mean drop in asset prices?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2020-04-17)

*Usually* when inflation rises the stock market rises with it. The second point i want bring your attention to before i ask my question is when there are stimulus measure enacted by the government, thereby increasing the government deficit and there being a corollary between government spending and asset prices.

If there is a scenario where the economy enters a period of deflation, does this necessarily mean that asset prices will depress? Or could this be avoided where asset prices stay the same or keep rising ?

**Tags:** asset-pricing, deflation
> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Your statements about there hardly being any exceptions to inflation rising implying stock prices going up is controversial. The first paragraph should probably be deleted, as it is a distraction unrelated to the question. Also, the phrase “enters a period of deflationary cycle” does not make sense. “Entering a period of deflation” might be what you mean to say, but that is also a vague statement.  
> **username_2**: @BrianRomanchuk: "when inflation rises the stock market rises with it". I think in nominal terms that's probably not very controversial. In real terms, though... The same unclarity issue plagues the 2nd part of the q here.  
> **username_2**: In re 1st para https://www.nber.org/chapters/c11335.pdf  "when the inflation rate is steady, share prices rise in proportion to the price level to maintain a constant ratio of share prices to real earnings. In contrast, an increase in the expected future rate of inflation causes a concurrent fall in the ratio of share prices to current earnings. Although share prices then rise from this lower level at the higher rate of inflation, the ratio of share prices to real earnings is permanently lower." [cont']  
> **username_2**: "This permanent reduction in the price-earnings ratio occurs because, under prevailing tax rules, inflation raises the effective tax rate on corporate source income"  
> **username_1**: @Fizz I believe there was a decent bear market in the 1970s - when inflation was rising. Saying that fair value should rise is not the same thing as stock prices actually rising. Given the imprecision of the statement, someone with access to stock price data could find plenty of counter-examples. The poster has *one* example of an alleged law of market pricing.  
> **username_0**: @BrianRomanchuk There are examples but again when discussing economics, there is hardly any statement you can make where counter examples cannot be found. Such as the "Free Markets are efficient for price discovery"; in reality there are countries with most debt but with the strongest currency and there are countries with the most foreign reserves but with the weakest currency. This is an example where by even saying free markets are efficient you can counter it, my question is in general and applicable in most cases.  
> **username_0**: I would also like to point out here that 70s style inflation was a result of external shock and not government's monitary policy, again in general. :)  
> **username_1**: @newcoder This is not a website for chatting about economics, the objective is to have clear questions and answers. You are inserting highly debatable assertions into a *question*. There is a reason why there is a vote to close this question, and rather than making dubious assertions in the comments, you might as well try to fix the question.  
> **username_0**: @BrianRomanchuk I have updated the question as per your suggestion.  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2020-04-18. Score: 2 | Accepted answer

One would need access to stock price index data to make definitive statements. There are probably studies doing such analysis. However, I will make some rather safe generalised comments.

Firstly, we should expect differences in behaviour between the gold standard era and the present, as well as between developed and developing markets.

My expertise is with floating currency, developed countries. And the following statements appear safe to say.

* Other than Japan, there has been no extended period of falling CPI (“deflation”) outside of recessions/global crises in the floating currency era. Pre-2020, that deflation was mainly due to falling oil prices, core CPI remained positive.
* Stock markets tend to fall in recessions, for many reasons. Most modern recessions have been associated with financial crises, and leveraged investors needed to cover positions. This means that stock prices can be lower than fundamentals.
* The deflation in Japan was extremely mild, and I would guess that there were some periods of rising stock prices (although the Japanese stock market was in a secular bear market after the bubble pop in the early 1990s) coinciding with deflation. Someone with access to Japanese financial data would have to verify
  what happaned.

As such, we have no real guidance for what sort of “deflation” can happen in a floating currency sovereign. However, it is very hard to see what significant difference a deflation of -1% has versus an inflation of 1% for equity valuations (with those rates being similar to historical post-1990s experience). Stocks could rise and fall based on the moods of stock investors. The difference in expected nominal growth rates can easily be counter-acted by lower discount rates.


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