<p>There are three big sources for data on inflation expectations in the US:</p>

<ol>
<li>Market implied expectations from the TIPS spread. TIPS securities provide inflation protection but are otherwise roughly comparable to normal treasuries, so the difference in yields between these two is a measure of expected inflation.</li>
<li>Consumer expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, which you can find <a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MICH" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</li>
<li>Surveys of professional forecasters, such as <a href="https://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters" rel="nofollow">this survey</a>.</li>
</ol>

<p>Which of these measures is most useful is not clear, and I've seen all three used at different times and in different places. <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150924a.htm#f28" rel="nofollow">This speech by Janet Yellen</a> has some discussion of the different measures, as does <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176515003286" rel="nofollow">this paper by Carola Binder</a>.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-11-12T16:06:53.123Z
2015-11-12T16:06:53.123Z
jayk
<p>How is expected inflation measured for policy purposes? Is it based on some economic model or some survey?</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-11-12T07:40:24.637Z
To get an accurate answer you probably have to specify which country you are curious about.
Giskard
<macroeconomics><monetary-policy><inflation>
Measure of expected inflation
Gurmeet
# Measure of expected inflation

(Asked by: username_0 on 2015-11-12)

How is expected inflation measured for policy purposes? Is it based on some economic model or some survey?

**Tags:** macroeconomics, monetary-policy, inflation
> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: To get an accurate answer you probably have to specify which country you are curious about.  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2015-11-12. Score: 3

There are three big sources for data on inflation expectations in the US:

1. Market implied expectations from the TIPS spread. TIPS securities provide inflation protection but are otherwise roughly comparable to normal treasuries, so the difference in yields between these two is a measure of expected inflation.
2. Consumer expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, which you can find [here](https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MICH).
3. Surveys of professional forecasters, such as [this survey](https://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters).

Which of these measures is most useful is not clear, and I've seen all three used at different times and in different places. [This speech by Janet Yellen](http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150924a.htm#f28) has some discussion of the different measures, as does [this paper by Carola Binder](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176515003286).


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