<p>When no price indices or nominal series are available to replicate chain-linking, just summing over the estimated components will be good enough. This holds especially over short forecast horizons where the error between chain-linking and summing is typically small.</p>
<p>Bear also in mind that the estimation error probably dominates anyway.</p>
<p>What you could additionally do, if you haven't done so already, is jointly estimate the components in a way that minimizes their difference from headline GDP. That way, you would make both the chain-linking implicit and possibly also achieve better accuracy.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2022-08-01T15:42:47.650Z
2022-08-01T15:42:47.650Z
BrsG
<p>I have forecast data on US real GDP expenditure components that I'd like to aggregate into a real GDP projection.</p>
<p>I don't think it’s not possible to simply sum up the components into an aggregate GDP figure due to the chain-linked method for computing real GDP..</p>
<p>Is there a standard procedure to aggregate bottom up expenditure projections into a GDP figure?</p>

<gdp><forecasting>
Procedure to aggregate bottom up expenditure projections into a GDP figure
Sv_277
# Procedure to aggregate bottom up expenditure projections into a GDP figure

(Asked by: username_0 on 2022-08-01)

I have forecast data on US real GDP expenditure components that I'd like to aggregate into a real GDP projection.

I don't think it’s not possible to simply sum up the components into an aggregate GDP figure due to the chain-linked method for computing real GDP..

Is there a standard procedure to aggregate bottom up expenditure projections into a GDP figure?

**Tags:** gdp, forecasting

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2022-08-01. Score: 1

When no price indices or nominal series are available to replicate chain-linking, just summing over the estimated components will be good enough. This holds especially over short forecast horizons where the error between chain-linking and summing is typically small.

Bear also in mind that the estimation error probably dominates anyway.

What you could additionally do, if you haven't done so already, is jointly estimate the components in a way that minimizes their difference from headline GDP. That way, you would make both the chain-linking implicit and possibly also achieve better accuracy.


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