<p>In Rogoff's article (at least current version) the first sentence you quote <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/index.aspx" rel="nofollow noreferrer">links to IMF's World Economic Outlook Database</a>. </p>

<p>My guess is that when he is referring to <em>output</em> he means <em>Gross domestic product, constant prices</em>. Looking up the numbers in the database we have 63038.4 billions of 2011 rubles in 2014 and 61097.5 in 2016 which translates to 3.1% decline (negative growth). </p>

<p>If I use per capita numbers than that also gives 3.1% decline which I guess is "comparable" to 4% decline.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-07-06T19:47:45.523Z
So, Rogoff is using the real GDP in Rubles, and I was using nominal GDP in Dollars. Thanks ;)
An old man in the sea.
CC BY-SA 3.0
2017-07-06T15:46:50.690Z
2017-07-06T15:46:50.690Z
snoram
<p>I was reading <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-bleak-economic-prospects-by-kenneth-rogoff-2017-07#comments" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Rogoff's piece</a> on the Russia's economic outlook, and in a paragraph, he states </p>

<blockquote>
  <p>The shock to the real economy has been severe, with Russia suffering a decline in output in 2015 and 2016 comparable to what the United States experienced during its 2008-2009 financial crisis, with the contraction in GDP totaling about 4%.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>I'm wondering how did they reach this figure. I was trying to redo the calculations, this time with <a href="https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm" rel="nofollow noreferrer">OECD data</a> on GDP, but none of the figures obtained are comparable - I just did $GDP_{t+1}/GDP_{t}=1+gr$ For Russia, I got 6-7%, and USA 2-3%,  depending whether we use GDP or GDP per capita.</p>

<p>Any help would be appreciated.</p>

<macroeconomics><gdp>
Comparing GDP contractions between Russia and US
An old man in the sea.
# Comparing GDP contractions between Russia and US

(Asked by: username_0 on 2017-07-06)

I was reading [Rogoff's piece](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-bleak-economic-prospects-by-kenneth-rogoff-2017-07#comments) on the Russia's economic outlook, and in a paragraph, he states

> The shock to the real economy has been severe, with Russia suffering a decline in output in 2015 and 2016 comparable to what the United States experienced during its 2008-2009 financial crisis, with the contraction in GDP totaling about 4%.

I'm wondering how did they reach this figure. I was trying to redo the calculations, this time with [OECD data](https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm) on GDP, but none of the figures obtained are comparable - I just did $GDP\_{t+1}/GDP\_{t}=1+gr$ For Russia, I got 6-7%, and USA 2-3%, depending whether we use GDP or GDP per capita.

Any help would be appreciated.

**Tags:** macroeconomics, gdp

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2017-07-06. Score: 0 | Accepted answer

In Rogoff's article (at least current version) the first sentence you quote [links to IMF's World Economic Outlook Database](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/index.aspx).

My guess is that when he is referring to *output* he means *Gross domestic product, constant prices*. Looking up the numbers in the database we have 63038.4 billions of 2011 rubles in 2014 and 61097.5 in 2016 which translates to 3.1% decline (negative growth).

If I use per capita numbers than that also gives 3.1% decline which I guess is "comparable" to 4% decline.

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: So, Rogoff is using the real GDP in Rubles, and I was using nominal GDP in Dollars. Thanks ;)  

---

