Daily Papers

Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal out-of-distribution (OoD) issues and dynamic spatial causation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called CaST to tackle these two challenges via causal treatments. Concretely, leveraging a causal lens, we first build a structural causal model to decipher the data generation process of STGs. To handle the temporal OoD issue, we employ the back-door adjustment by a novel disentanglement block to separate invariant parts and temporal environments from input data. Moreover, we utilize the front-door adjustment and adopt the Hodge-Laplacian operator for edge-level convolution to model the ripple effect of causation. Experiments results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of CaST, which consistently outperforms existing methods with good interpretability.

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem, we introduce SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment, the first toolkit to provide realistic benchmark datasets and tools for systematically evaluating causal inference methods designed to alleviate spatial confounding. Each dataset includes training data, true counterfactuals, a spatial graph with coordinates, and smoothness and confounding scores characterizing the effect of a missing spatial confounder. It also includes realistic semi-synthetic outcomes and counterfactuals, generated using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles, following best practices for causal inference benchmarks. The datasets cover real treatment and covariates from diverse domains, including climate, health and social sciences. SpaCE facilitates an automated end-to-end pipeline, simplifying data loading, experimental setup, and evaluating machine learning and causal inference models. The SpaCE project provides several dozens of datasets of diverse sizes and spatial complexity. It is publicly available as a Python package, encouraging community feedback and contributions.

The ability to reason about spatial dynamics is a cornerstone of intelligence, yet current research overlooks the human intent behind spatial changes. To address these limitations, we introduce Teleo-Spatial Intelligence (TSI), a new paradigm that unifies two critical pillars: Physical-Dynamic Reasoning--understanding the physical principles of object interactions--and Intent-Driven Reasoning--inferring the human goals behind these actions. To catalyze research in TSI, we present EscherVerse, consisting of a large-scale, open-world benchmark (Escher-Bench), a dataset (Escher-35k), and models (Escher series). Derived from real-world videos, EscherVerse moves beyond constrained settings to explicitly evaluate an agent's ability to reason about object permanence, state transitions, and trajectory prediction in dynamic, human-centric scenarios. Crucially, it is the first benchmark to systematically assess Intent-Driven Reasoning, challenging models to connect physical events to their underlying human purposes. Our work, including a novel data curation pipeline, provides a foundational resource to advance spatial intelligence from passive scene description toward a holistic, purpose-driven understanding of the world.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

The extraction of invariant causal relationships from time series data with environmental attributes is critical for robust decision-making in domains such as climate science and environmental monitoring. However, existing methods either emphasize dynamic causal analysis without leveraging environmental contexts or focus on static invariant causal inference, leaving a gap in distributed temporal settings. In this paper, we propose Distributed Dynamic Invariant Causal Prediction in Time-series (DisDy-ICPT), a novel framework that learns dynamic causal relationships over time while mitigating spatial confounding variables without requiring data communication. We theoretically prove that DisDy-ICPT recovers stable causal predictors within a bounded number of communication rounds under standard sampling assumptions. Empirical evaluations on synthetic benchmarks and environment-segmented real-world datasets show that DisDy-ICPT achieves superior predictive stability and accuracy compared to baseline methods A and B. Our approach offers promising applications in carbon monitoring and weather forecasting. Future work will extend DisDy-ICPT to online learning scenarios.

Reasoning about dynamic spatial relationships is essential, as both observers and objects often move simultaneously. Although vision-language models (VLMs) and visual expertise models excel in 2D tasks and static scenarios, their ability to fully understand dynamic 3D scenarios remains limited. We introduce Dynamic Spatial Intelligence and propose DSI-Bench, a benchmark with nearly 1,000 dynamic videos and over 1,700 manually annotated questions covering nine decoupled motion patterns of observers and objects. Spatially and temporally symmetric designs reduce biases and enable systematic evaluation of models' reasoning about self-motion and object motion. Our evaluation of 14 VLMs and expert models reveals key limitations: models often conflate observer and object motion, exhibit semantic biases, and fail to accurately infer relative relationships in dynamic scenarios. Our DSI-Bench provides valuable findings and insights about the future development of general and expertise models with dynamic spatial intelligence.

Humans inhabit a physical 4D world where geometric structure and semantic content evolve over time, constituting a dynamic 4D reality (spatial with temporal dimension). While current Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) excel in static visual understanding, can they also be adept at "thinking in dynamics", i.e., perceive, track and reason about spatio-temporal dynamics in evolving scenes? To systematically assess their spatio-temporal reasoning and localized dynamics perception capabilities, we introduce Dyn-Bench, a large-scale benchmark built from diverse real-world and synthetic video datasets, enabling robust and scalable evaluation of spatio-temporal understanding. Through multi-stage filtering from massive 2D and 4D data sources, Dyn-Bench provides a high-quality collection of dynamic scenes, comprising 1k videos, 7k visual question answering (VQA) pairs, and 3k dynamic object grounding pairs. We probe general, spatial and region-level MLLMs to express how they think in dynamics both linguistically and visually, and find that existing models cannot simultaneously maintain strong performance in both spatio-temporal reasoning and dynamic object grounding, often producing inconsistent interpretations of motion and interaction. Notably, conventional prompting strategies (e.g., chain-of-thought or caption-based hints) provide limited improvement, whereas structured integration approaches, including Mask-Guided Fusion and Spatio-Temporal Textual Cognitive Map (ST-TCM), significantly enhance MLLMs' dynamics perception and spatio-temporal reasoning in the physical 4D world. Code and benchmark are available at https://dyn-bench.github.io/.

Most existing spatial reasoning benchmarks focus on static or globally observable environments, failing to capture the challenges of long-horizon reasoning and memory utilization under partial observability and dynamic changes. We introduce two dynamic spatial benchmarks, locally observable maze navigation and match-2 elimination that systematically evaluate models' abilities in spatial understanding and adaptive planning when local perception, environment feedback, and global objectives are tightly coupled. Each action triggers structural changes in the environment, requiring continuous update of cognition and strategy. We further propose a subjective experience-based memory mechanism for cross-task experience transfer and validation. Experiments show that our benchmarks reveal key limitations of mainstream models in dynamic spatial reasoning and long-term memory, providing a comprehensive platform for future methodological advances. Our code and data are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/EvoEmpirBench-143C/.

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatiotemporal processes, including wave propagation and weather dynamics, for which we assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. A recently introduced DIstributed SpatioTemporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture (DISTANA) is used and enhanced to learn such processes, requiring fewer parameters and achieving significantly more accurate predictions compared to temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive location-respective hidden causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and, meanwhile, uses the self inferred information to improve its own future temperature predictions.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-your-own coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.

Mediation analysis learns the causal effect transmitted via mediator variables between treatments and outcomes and receives increasing attention in various scientific domains to elucidate causal relations. Most existing works focus on point-exposure studies where each subject only receives one treatment at a single time point. However, there are a number of applications (e.g., mobile health) where the treatments are sequentially assigned over time and the dynamic mediation effects are of primary interest. Proposing a reinforcement learning (RL) framework, we are the first to evaluate dynamic mediation effects in settings with infinite horizons. We decompose the average treatment effect into an immediate direct effect, an immediate mediation effect, a delayed direct effect, and a delayed mediation effect. Upon the identification of each effect component, we further develop robust and semi-parametrically efficient estimators under the RL framework to infer these causal effects. The superior performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through extensive numerical studies, theoretical results, and an analysis of a mobile health dataset.

Predicting the behavior of complex systems is critical in many scientific and engineering domains, and hinges on the model's ability to capture their underlying dynamics. Existing methods encode the intrinsic dynamics of high-dimensional observations through latent representations and predict autoregressively. However, these latent representations lose the inherent spatial structure of spatiotemporal dynamics, leading to the predictor's inability to effectively model spatial interactions and neglect emerging dynamics during long-term prediction. In this work, we propose SparseDiff, introducing a test-time adaptation strategy to dynamically update the encoding scheme to accommodate emergent spatiotemporal structures during the long-term evolution of the system. Specifically, we first design a codebook-based sparse encoder, which coarsens the continuous spatial domain into a sparse graph topology. Then, we employ a graph neural ordinary differential equation to model the dynamics and guide a diffusion decoder for reconstruction. SparseDiff autoregressively predicts the spatiotemporal evolution and adjust the sparse topological structure to adapt to emergent spatiotemporal patterns by adaptive re-encoding. Extensive evaluations on representative systems demonstrate that SparseDiff achieves an average prediction error reduction of 49.99\% compared to baselines, requiring only 1\% of the spatial resolution.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Spatial embodied intelligence requires agents to act to acquire information under partial observability. While multimodal foundation models excel at passive perception, their capacity for active, self-directed exploration remains understudied. We propose Theory of Space, defined as an agent's ability to actively acquire information through self-directed, active exploration and to construct, revise, and exploit a spatial belief from sequential, partial observations. We evaluate this through a benchmark where the goal is curiosity-driven exploration to build an accurate cognitive map. A key innovation is spatial belief probing, which prompts models to reveal their internal spatial representations at each step. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art models reveals several critical bottlenecks. First, we identify an Active-Passive Gap, where performance drops significantly when agents must autonomously gather information. Second, we find high inefficiency, as models explore unsystematically compared to program-based proxies. Through belief probing, we diagnose that while perception is an initial bottleneck, global beliefs suffer from instability that causes spatial knowledge to degrade over time. Finally, using a false belief paradigm, we uncover Belief Inertia, where agents fail to update obsolete priors with new evidence. This issue is present in text-based agents but is particularly severe in vision-based models. Our findings suggest that current foundation models struggle to maintain coherent, revisable spatial beliefs during active exploration.

Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims to uncover the data-generating process and identify the underlying causal variables and relations, whose evaluation remains inherently challenging due to the requirement of known ground-truth causal variables and causal structure. Existing evaluations often rely on either simplistic synthetic datasets or downstream performance on real-world tasks, generally suffering a dilemma between realism and evaluative precision. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark for CRL using high-fidelity simulated visual data that retains both realistic visual complexity and, more importantly, access to ground-truth causal generating processes. The dataset comprises around 200 thousand images and 3 million video frames across 24 sub-scenes in four domains: static image generation, dynamic physical simulations, robotic manipulations, and traffic situation analysis. These scenarios range from static to dynamic settings, simple to complex structures, and single to multi-agent interactions, offering a comprehensive testbed that hopefully bridges the gap between rigorous evaluation and real-world applicability. In addition, we provide flexible access to the underlying causal structures, allowing users to modify or configure them to align with the required assumptions in CRL, such as available domain labels, temporal dependencies, or intervention histories. Leveraging this benchmark, we evaluated representative CRL methods across diverse paradigms and offered empirical insights to assist practitioners and newcomers in choosing or extending appropriate CRL frameworks to properly address specific types of real problems that can benefit from the CRL perspective. Welcome to visit our: Project page:https://causal-verse.github.io/, Dataset:https://huggingface.co/CausalVerse.

Reasoning about motion and space is a fundamental cognitive capability that is required by multiple real-world applications. While many studies highlight that large multimodal language models (MLMs) struggle to reason about space, they only focus on static spatial relationships, and not dynamic awareness of motion and space, i.e., reasoning about the effect of egocentric and object motions on spatial relationships. Manually annotating such object and camera movements is expensive. Hence, we introduce SAT, a simulated spatial aptitude training dataset comprising both static and dynamic spatial reasoning across 175K question-answer (QA) pairs and 20K scenes. Complementing this, we also construct a small (150 image-QAs) yet challenging dynamic spatial test set using real-world images. Leveraging our SAT datasets and 6 existing static spatial benchmarks, we systematically investigate what improves both static and dynamic spatial awareness. Our results reveal that simulations are surprisingly effective at imparting spatial aptitude to MLMs that translate to real images. We show that perfect annotations in simulation are more effective than existing approaches of pseudo-annotating real images. For instance, SAT training improves a LLaVA-13B model by an average 11% and a LLaVA-Video-7B model by an average 8% on multiple spatial benchmarks, including our real-image dynamic test set and spatial reasoning on long videos -- even outperforming some large proprietary models. While reasoning over static relationships improves with synthetic training data, there is still considerable room for improvement for dynamic reasoning questions.

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited to univariate delay embeddings in its cross-mapping processes. In this work, we extend PCM to the multivariate setting, introducing multiPCM, which leverages multivariate embeddings to more effectively distinguish indirect causal relationships. We further propose a multivariate cross-mapping framework (MXMap) for causal discovery in dynamical systems. This two-phase framework combines (1) pairwise CCM tests to establish an initial causal graph and (2) multiPCM to refine the graph by pruning indirect causal connections. Through experiments on simulated data and the ERA5 Reanalysis weather dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MXMap. Additionally, MXMap is compared against several baseline methods, showing advantages in accuracy and causal graph refinement.

Solid geometry problem solving demands spatial mathematical reasoning that integrates spatial intelligence and symbolic reasoning. However, most existing multimodal mathematical reasoning benchmarks focus primarily on 2D plane geometry, rely on static datasets prone to data contamination and memorization, and evaluate models solely by final answers, overlooking the reasoning process. To address these limitations, we introduce DynaSolidGeo, the first dynamic benchmark for evaluating genuine spatial reasoning in Vision-Language Models (VLMs). Constructed through a semi-automatic annotation pipeline, DynaSolidGeo contains 503 expert-curated seed questions that can, in principle, dynamically generate an unbounded number of diverse multimodal text-visual instances. Beyond answer accuracy, we incorporate process evaluation based on expert-annotated reasoning chains to measure logical validity and causal coherence. Experiments across representative open-source and closed-source VLMs reveal large performance gaps, severe degradation in dynamic settings, and poor performance on tasks requiring high-level spatial intelligence, such as mental rotation and visualization. The code and dataset are available at https://zgca-ai4edu.github.io/DynaSolidGeo/{DynaSolidGeo}.

Despite advancements in Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) for scene understanding, their performance on complex spatial reasoning tasks requiring mental simulation remains significantly limited. Current methods often rely on passive observation of spatial data, failing to internalize an active mental imagery process. To bridge this gap, we propose SpatialDreamer, a reinforcement learning framework that enables spatial reasoning through a closedloop process of active exploration, visual imagination via a world model, and evidence-grounded reasoning. To address the lack of fine-grained reward supervision in longhorizontal reasoning tasks, we propose Geometric Policy Optimization (GeoPO), which introduces tree-structured sampling and step-level reward estimation with geometric consistency constraints. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SpatialDreamer delivers highly competitive results across multiple challenging benchmarks, signifying a critical advancement in human-like active spatial mental simulation for MLLMs.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

Current multimodal models aim to transcend the limitations of single-modality representations by unifying understanding and generation, often using text-to-image (T2I) tasks to calibrate semantic consistency. However, their reliance on static, single-image generation in training and evaluation leads to overfitting to static pattern matching and semantic fusion, while fundamentally hindering their ability to model dynamic processes that unfold over time. To address these constraints, we propose Envision-a causal event progression benchmark for chained text-to-multi-image generation. Grounded in world knowledge and structured by spatiotemporal causality, it reorganizes existing evaluation dimensions and includes 1,000 four-stage prompts spanning six scientific and humanities domains. To transition evaluation from single images to sequential frames and assess whether models truly internalize world knowledge while adhering to causal-temporal constraints, we introduce Envision-Score, a holistic metric integrating multi-dimensional consistency, physicality, and aesthetics. Comprehensive evaluation of 15 models (10 specialized T2I models, 5 unified models) uncovers: specialized T2I models demonstrate proficiency in aesthetic rendering yet lack intrinsic world knowledge. Unified multimodal models bridge this gap, consistently outperforming specialized counterparts in causal narrative coherence. However, even these unified architectures remain subordinate to closed-source models and struggle to overcome the core challenge of spatiotemporal consistency. This demonstrates that a focus on causally-isolated single images impedes multi-frame reasoning and generation, promoting static pattern matching over dynamic world modeling-ultimately limiting world knowledge internalization, generation.

Humans perceive and understand real-world spaces through a stream of visual observations. Therefore, the ability to streamingly maintain and update spatial evidence from potentially unbounded video streams is essential for spatial intelligence. The core challenge is not simply longer context windows but how spatial information is selected, organized, and retained over time. In this paper, we propose Spatial-TTT towards streaming visual-based spatial intelligence with test-time training (TTT), which adapts a subset of parameters (fast weights) to capture and organize spatial evidence over long-horizon scene videos. Specifically, we design a hybrid architecture and adopt large-chunk updates parallel with sliding-window attention for efficient spatial video processing. To further promote spatial awareness, we introduce a spatial-predictive mechanism applied to TTT layers with 3D spatiotemporal convolution, which encourages the model to capture geometric correspondence and temporal continuity across frames. Beyond architecture design, we construct a dataset with dense 3D spatial descriptions, which guides the model to update its fast weights to memorize and organize global 3D spatial signals in a structured manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Spatial-TTT improves long-horizon spatial understanding and achieves state-of-the-art performance on video spatial benchmarks. Project page: https://liuff19.github.io/Spatial-TTT.

Vision-centric hierarchical embodied models have demonstrated strong potential for long-horizon robotic control. However, existing methods lack spatial awareness capabilities, limiting their effectiveness in bridging visual plans to actionable control in complex environments. To address this problem, we propose Spatial Policy (SP), a unified spatial-aware visuomotor robotic manipulation framework via explicit spatial modeling and reasoning. Specifically, we first design a spatial-conditioned embodied video generation module to model spatially guided predictions through a spatial plan table. Then, we propose a spatial-based action prediction module to infer executable actions with coordination. Finally, we propose a spatial reasoning feedback policy to refine the spatial plan table via dual-stage replanning. Extensive experiments show that SP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a 33.0% average improvement over the best baseline. With an 86.7% average success rate across 11 diverse tasks, SP substantially enhances the practicality of embodied models for robotic control applications. Code and checkpoints are maintained at https://plantpotatoonmoon.github.io/SpatialPolicy/.

Imitation learning method has shown immense promise for robotic manipulation, yet its practical deployment is fundamentally constrained by the data scarcity. Despite prior work on collecting large-scale datasets, there still remains a significant gap to robust spatial generalization. We identify a key limitation: individual trajectories, regardless of their length, are typically collected from a single, static spatial configuration of the environment. This includes fixed object and target spatial positions as well as unchanging camera viewpoints, which significantly restricts the diversity of spatial information available for learning. To address this critical bottleneck in data efficiency, we propose MOtion-Based Variability Enhancement (MOVE), a simple yet effective data collection paradigm that enables the acquisition of richer spatial information from dynamic demonstrations. Our core contribution is an augmentation strategy that injects motion into any movable objects within the environment for each demonstration. This process implicitly generates a dense and diverse set of spatial configurations within a single trajectory. We conduct extensive experiments in both simulation and real-world environments to validate our approach. For example, in simulation tasks requiring strong spatial generalization, MOVE achieves an average success rate of 39.1\%, a 76.1\% relative improvement over the static data collection paradigm (22.2\%), and yields up to 2--5times gains in data efficiency on certain tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/lucywang720/MOVE.

Spatial reasoning in 3D space is central to human cognition and indispensable for embodied tasks such as navigation and manipulation. However, state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs) struggle frequently with tasks as simple as anticipating how a scene will look after an egocentric motion: they perceive 2D images but lack an internal model of 3D dynamics. We therefore propose MindJourney, a test-time scaling framework that grants a VLM with this missing capability by coupling it to a controllable world model based on video diffusion. The VLM iteratively sketches a concise camera trajectory, while the world model synthesizes the corresponding view at each step. The VLM then reasons over this multi-view evidence gathered during the interactive exploration. Without any fine-tuning, our MindJourney achieves over an average 8% performance boost on the representative spatial reasoning benchmark SAT, showing that pairing VLMs with world models for test-time scaling offers a simple, plug-and-play route to robust 3D reasoning. Meanwhile, our method also improves upon the test-time inference VLMs trained through reinforcement learning, which demonstrates the potential of our method that utilizes world models for test-time scaling.

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve gradually through a turning maneuver, and human gait shifts smoothly from walking to running. We formalize this setting by modeling transitional mechanisms as convex combinations of finitely many atomic mechanisms, governed by time-varying mixing coefficients. Our theoretical contributions establish that both the latent causal variables and the continuous mixing trajectory are jointly identifiable. We further propose TRACE, a Mixture-of-Experts framework where each expert learns one atomic mechanism during training, enabling recovery of mechanism trajectories at test time. This formulation generalizes to intermediate mechanism states never observed during training. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that TRACE recovers mixing trajectories with up to 0.99 correlation, substantially outperforming discrete-switching baselines.

Spatial cognition is fundamental to real-world multimodal intelligence, allowing models to effectively interact with the physical environment. While multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have made significant strides, existing benchmarks often oversimplify spatial cognition, reducing it to a single-dimensional metric, which fails to capture the hierarchical structure and interdependence of spatial abilities. To address this gap, we propose a hierarchical spatial cognition framework that decomposes spatial intelligence into five progressively complex levels from basic observation to high-level planning. Building upon this taxonomy, we construct SpatialBench, a large-scale, fine-grained benchmark covering 15 tasks aligned with these cognitive levels. To provide a unified evaluation across heterogeneous tasks, we further introduce a high-level capability-oriented metric that reliably assesses a model's overall spatial reasoning ability. Extensive experiments over massive MLLMs reveal distinct performance stratification across cognitive levels: models exhibit strong perceptual grounding yet remain limited in symbolic reasoning, causal inference, and planning. Additional human tests demonstrate that humans perform selective, goal-directed abstraction, while MLLMs tend to over-attend to surface details without coherent spatial intent. Our work establishes the first systematic framework for measuring hierarchical spatial cognition in MLLMs, laying the foundation for future spatially intelligent systems.

3D spatial reasoning in dynamic, audio-visual environments is a cornerstone of human cognition yet remains largely unexplored by existing Audio-Visual Large Language Models (AV-LLMs) and benchmarks, which predominantly focus on static or 2D scenes. We introduce SAVVY-Bench, the first benchmark for 3D spatial reasoning in dynamic scenes with synchronized spatial audio. SAVVY-Bench is comprised of thousands of relationships involving static and moving objects, and requires fine-grained temporal grounding, consistent 3D localization, and multi-modal annotation. To tackle this challenge, we propose SAVVY, a novel training-free reasoning pipeline that consists of two stages: (i) Egocentric Spatial Tracks Estimation, which leverages AV-LLMs as well as other audio-visual methods to track the trajectories of key objects related to the query using both visual and spatial audio cues, and (ii) Dynamic Global Map Construction, which aggregates multi-modal queried object trajectories and converts them into a unified global dynamic map. Using the constructed map, a final QA answer is obtained through a coordinate transformation that aligns the global map with the queried viewpoint. Empirical evaluation demonstrates that SAVVY substantially enhances performance of state-of-the-art AV-LLMs, setting a new standard and stage for approaching dynamic 3D spatial reasoning in AV-LLMs.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) frequently "hallucinate" - generate plausible yet factually incorrect statements - posing a critical barrier to their trustworthy deployment. In this work, we propose a new paradigm for diagnosing hallucinations, recasting them from static output errors into dynamic pathologies of a model's computational cognition. Our framework is grounded in a normative principle of computational rationality, allowing us to model a VLM's generation as a dynamic cognitive trajectory. We design a suite of information-theoretic probes that project this trajectory onto an interpretable, low-dimensional Cognitive State Space. Our central discovery is a governing principle we term the geometric-information duality: a cognitive trajectory's geometric abnormality within this space is fundamentally equivalent to its high information-theoretic surprisal. Hallucination detection is counts as a geometric anomaly detection problem. Evaluated across diverse settings - from rigorous binary QA (POPE) and comprehensive reasoning (MME) to unconstrained open-ended captioning (MS-COCO) - our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance. Crucially, it operates with high efficiency under weak supervision and remains highly robust even when calibration data is heavily contaminated. This approach enables a causal attribution of failures, mapping observable errors to distinct pathological states: perceptual instability (measured by Perceptual Entropy), logical-causal failure (measured by Inferential Conflict), and decisional ambiguity (measured by Decision Entropy). Ultimately, this opens a path toward building AI systems whose reasoning is transparent, auditable, and diagnosable by design.

Spatial intelligence (SI) represents a cognitive ability encompassing the visualization, manipulation, and reasoning about spatial relationships, underpinning disciplines from neuroscience to robotics. We introduce SITE, a benchmark dataset towards SI Thorough Evaluation in a standardized format of multi-choice visual question-answering, designed to assess large vision-language models' spatial intelligence across diverse visual modalities (single-image, multi-image, and video) and SI factors (figural to environmental scales, spatial visualization and orientation, intrinsic and extrinsic, static and dynamic). Our approach to curating the benchmark combines a bottom-up survey about 31 existing datasets and a top-down strategy drawing upon three classification systems in cognitive science, which prompt us to design two novel types of tasks about view-taking and dynamic scenes. Extensive experiments reveal that leading models fall behind human experts especially in spatial orientation, a fundamental SI factor. Moreover, we demonstrate a positive correlation between a model's spatial reasoning proficiency and its performance on an embodied AI task.

Spatial cognition enables adaptive goal-directed behavior by constructing internal models of space. Robust biological systems consolidate spatial knowledge into three interconnected forms: landmarks for salient cues, route knowledge for movement trajectories, and survey knowledge for map-like representations. While recent advances in multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) have enabled visual-language reasoning in embodied agents, these efforts lack structured spatial memory and instead operate reactively, limiting their generalization and adaptability in complex real-world environments. Here we present Brain-inspired Spatial Cognition for Navigation (BSC-Nav), a unified framework for constructing and leveraging structured spatial memory in embodied agents. BSC-Nav builds allocentric cognitive maps from egocentric trajectories and contextual cues, and dynamically retrieves spatial knowledge aligned with semantic goals. Integrated with powerful MLLMs, BSC-Nav achieves state-of-the-art efficacy and efficiency across diverse navigation tasks, demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization, and supports versatile embodied behaviors in the real physical world, offering a scalable and biologically grounded path toward general-purpose spatial intelligence.

The traditional i.i.d.-based learning paradigm faces inherent challenges in addressing causal relationships, which has become increasingly evident with the rise of applications in causal representation learning. Our understanding of causality naturally requires a perspective as the creator rather than observer, as the ``what...if'' questions only hold within the possible world we conceive. The traditional perspective limits capturing dynamic causal outcomes and leads to compensatory efforts such as the reliance on hidden confounders. This paper lays the groundwork for the new perspective, which enables the relation-first modeling paradigm for causality. Also, it introduces the Relation-Indexed Representation Learning (RIRL) as a practical implementation, supported by experiments that validate its efficacy.

World models aim to simulate environments and enable effective agent behavior. However, modeling real-world environments presents unique challenges as they dynamically change across both space and, crucially, time. To capture these composed dynamics, we introduce a Spatio-Temporal Road Image Dataset for Exploration (STRIDE) permuting 360-degree panoramic imagery into rich interconnected observation, state and action nodes. Leveraging this structure, we can simultaneously model the relationship between egocentric views, positional coordinates, and movement commands across both space and time. We benchmark this dataset via TARDIS, a transformer-based generative world model that integrates spatial and temporal dynamics through a unified autoregressive framework trained on STRIDE. We demonstrate robust performance across a range of agentic tasks such as controllable photorealistic image synthesis, instruction following, autonomous self-control, and state-of-the-art georeferencing. These results suggest a promising direction towards sophisticated generalist agents--capable of understanding and manipulating the spatial and temporal aspects of their material environments--with enhanced embodied reasoning capabilities. Training code, datasets, and model checkpoints are made available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Tera-AI/STRIDE.

Spatial reasoning is a key aspect of cognitive psychology and remains a major bottleneck for current vision-language models (VLMs). While extensive research has aimed to evaluate or improve VLMs' understanding of basic spatial relations, such as distinguishing left from right, near from far, and object counting, these tasks represent only the most fundamental level of spatial reasoning. In this work, we introduce OmniSpatial, a comprehensive and challenging benchmark for spatial reasoning, grounded in cognitive psychology. OmniSpatial covers four major categories: dynamic reasoning, complex spatial logic, spatial interaction, and perspective-taking, with 50 fine-grained subcategories. Through Internet data crawling and careful manual annotation, we construct over 1.5K question-answer pairs. Extensive experiments show that both open- and closed-source VLMs, as well as existing reasoning and spatial understanding models, exhibit significant limitations in comprehensive spatial understanding. We further analyze failure cases and propose potential directions for future research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated unprecedented capabilities across various natural language processing tasks. Their ability to process and generate viable text and code has made them ubiquitous in many fields, while their deployment as knowledge bases and "reasoning" tools remains an area of ongoing research. In geography, a growing body of literature has been focusing on evaluating LLMs' geographical knowledge and their ability to perform spatial reasoning. However, very little is still known about the internal functioning of these models, especially about how they process geographical information. In this chapter, we establish a novel framework for the study of geospatial mechanistic interpretability - using spatial analysis to reverse engineer how LLMs handle geographical information. Our aim is to advance our understanding of the internal representations that these complex models generate while processing geographical information - what one might call "how LLMs think about geographic information" if such phrasing was not an undue anthropomorphism. We first outline the use of probing in revealing internal structures within LLMs. We then introduce the field of mechanistic interpretability, discussing the superposition hypothesis and the role of sparse autoencoders in disentangling polysemantic internal representations of LLMs into more interpretable, monosemantic features. In our experiments, we use spatial autocorrelation to show how features obtained for placenames display spatial patterns related to their geographic location and can thus be interpreted geospatially, providing insights into how these models process geographical information. We conclude by discussing how our framework can help shape the study and use of foundation models in geography.

The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task, however, is very challenging since there are time delays between extremes and their drivers, and the spatial response of such drivers is inhomogeneous. In this work, we propose a first approach and benchmarks to tackle this challenge. Our approach is trained end-to-end to predict spatio-temporally extremes and spatio-temporally drivers in the physical input variables jointly. By enforcing the network to predict extremes from spatio-temporal binary masks of identified drivers, the network successfully identifies drivers that are correlated with extremes. We evaluate our approach on three newly created synthetic benchmarks, where two of them are based on remote sensing or reanalysis climate data, and on two real-world reanalysis datasets. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/IDE.

Spatial reasoning is an essential problem in embodied AI research. Efforts to enhance spatial reasoning abilities through supplementary spatial data and fine-tuning have proven limited and ineffective when addressing complex embodied tasks, largely due to their dependence on language-based outputs. While some approaches have introduced a point-based action space to mitigate this issue, they fall short in managing more intricate tasks within complex environments. This deficiency arises from their failure to fully exploit the inherent thinking and reasoning capabilities that are fundamental strengths of Vision-Language Models (VLMs). To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach named SpatialCoT, specifically designed to bolster the spatial reasoning capabilities of VLMs. Our approach comprises two stages: spatial coordinate bi-directional alignment, which aligns vision-language inputs with spatial coordinates, and chain-of-thought spatial grounding, which harnesses the reasoning capabilities of language models for advanced spatial reasoning. We evaluate SpatialCoT on challenging navigation and manipulation tasks, both in simulation and real-world settings. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art approaches in both tasks.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in general vision-language tasks. However, recent studies have exposed critical limitations in their spatial reasoning capabilities. This deficiency in spatial reasoning significantly constrains MLLMs' ability to interact effectively with the physical world, thereby limiting their broader applications. We argue that spatial reasoning capabilities will not naturally emerge from merely scaling existing architectures and training methodologies. Instead, this challenge demands dedicated attention to fundamental modifications in the current MLLM development approach. In this position paper, we first establish a comprehensive framework for spatial reasoning within the context of MLLMs. We then elaborate on its pivotal role in real-world applications. Through systematic analysis, we examine how individual components of the current methodology, from training data to reasoning mechanisms, influence spatial reasoning capabilities. This examination reveals critical limitations while simultaneously identifying promising avenues for advancement. Our work aims to direct the AI research community's attention toward these crucial yet underexplored aspects. By highlighting these challenges and opportunities, we seek to catalyze progress toward achieving human-like spatial reasoning capabilities in MLLMs.

Recent studies have extended the application of large language models (LLMs) to geographic problems, revealing surprising geospatial competence even without explicit spatial supervision. However, LLMs still face challenges in spatial consistency, multi-hop reasoning, and geographic bias. To address these issues, we propose GeoSR, a self-refining agentic reasoning framework that embeds core geographic principles -- most notably Tobler's First Law of Geography -- into an iterative prediction loop. In GeoSR, the reasoning process is decomposed into three collaborating agents: (1) a variable-selection agent that selects relevant covariates from the same location; (2) a point-selection agent that chooses reference predictions at nearby locations generated by the LLM in previous rounds; and (3) a refine agent that coordinates the iterative refinement process by evaluating prediction quality and triggering further rounds when necessary. This agentic loop progressively improves prediction quality by leveraging both spatial dependencies and inter-variable relationships. We validate GeoSR on tasks ranging from physical-world property estimation to socioeconomic prediction. Experimental results show consistent improvements over standard prompting strategies, demonstrating that incorporating geostatistical priors and spatially structured reasoning into LLMs leads to more accurate and equitable geospatial predictions. The code of GeoSR is available at https://github.com/JinfanTang/GeoSR.

Spatial reasoning is a core aspect of human intelligence that allows perception, inference and planning in 3D environments. However, current vision-language models (VLMs) struggle to maintain geometric coherence and cross-view consistency for spatial reasoning in multi-view settings. We attribute this gap to the lack of fine-grained benchmarks that isolate multi-view reasoning from single-view perception and temporal factors. To address this, we present ReMindView-Bench, a cognitively grounded benchmark for evaluating how VLMs construct, align and maintain spatial mental models across complementary viewpoints. ReMindView-Bench systematically varies viewpoint spatial pattern and query type to probe key factors of spatial cognition. Evaluations of 15 current VLMs reveals consistent failures in cross-view alignment and perspective-taking in multi-view spatial reasoning, motivating deeper analysis on the reasoning process. Explicit phase-wise analysis using LLM-as-a-judge and self-consistency prompting shows that VLMs perform well on in-frame perception but degrade sharply when integrating information across views. Implicit analysis, including linear probing and entropy dynamics, further show progressive loss of task-relevant information and uncertainty separation between correct and incorrect trajectories. These results provide a cognitively grounded diagnosis of VLM spatial reasoning and reveal how multi-view spatial mental models are formed, degraded and destabilized across reasoning phases. The ReMindView-Bench benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Xue0823/ReMindView-Bench, and the source codes of benchmark construction and VLM reasoning analysis are available at https://github.com/pittisl/ReMindView-Bench.

End-to-end architectures trained via imitation learning have advanced autonomous driving by scaling model size and data, yet performance remains brittle in safety-critical long-tail scenarios where supervision is sparse and causal understanding is limited. To address this, we introduce Alpamayo-R1 (AR1), a vision-language-action model (VLA) that integrates Chain of Causation reasoning with trajectory planning to enhance decision-making in complex driving scenarios. Our approach features three key innovations: (1) the Chain of Causation (CoC) dataset, built through a hybrid auto-labeling and human-in-the-loop pipeline producing decision-grounded, causally linked reasoning traces aligned with driving behaviors; (2) a modular VLA architecture combining Cosmos-Reason, a Vision-Language Model pre-trained for Physical AI applications, with a diffusion-based trajectory decoder that generates dynamically feasible plans in real time; (3) a multi-stage training strategy using supervised fine-tuning to elicit reasoning and reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize reasoning quality via large reasoning model feedback and enforce reasoning-action consistency. Evaluation shows AR1 achieves up to a 12% improvement in planning accuracy on challenging cases compared to a trajectory-only baseline, with a 35% reduction in off-road rate and 25% reduction in close encounter rate in closed-loop simulation. RL post-training improves reasoning quality by 45% as measured by a large reasoning model critic and reasoning-action consistency by 37%. Model scaling from 0.5B to 7B parameters shows consistent improvements. On-vehicle road tests confirm real-time performance (99 ms latency) and successful urban deployment. By bridging interpretable reasoning with precise control, AR1 demonstrates a practical path towards Level 4 autonomous driving. We plan to release AR1 models and a subset of the CoC in a future update.

Achieving human-like reasoning in deep learning models for complex tasks in unknown environments remains a critical challenge in embodied intelligence. While advanced vision-language models (VLMs) excel in static scene understanding, their limitations in spatio-temporal reasoning and adaptation to dynamic, open-set tasks like task-oriented navigation and embodied question answering (EQA) persist due to inadequate modeling of fine-grained spatio-temporal cues and physical world comprehension. To address this, we propose VEME, a novel cross-modal alignment method that enhances generalization in unseen scenes by learning an ego-centric, experience-centered world model. Our framework integrates three key components: (1) a cross-modal alignment framework bridging objects, spatial representations, and visual semantics with spatio-temporal cues to enhance VLM in-context learning; (2) a dynamic, implicit cognitive map activated by world embedding to enable task-relevant geometric-semantic memory recall; and (3) an instruction-based navigation and reasoning framework leveraging embodied priors for long-term planning and efficient exploration. By embedding geometry-aware spatio-temporal episodic experiences, our method significantly improves reasoning and planning in dynamic environments. Experimental results on VSI-Bench and VLN-CE demonstrate 1%-3% accuracy and exploration efficiency improvement compared to traditional approaches.

Large-scale land enclosure for speculative mega-development constitutes a non-equilibrium spatial process whose velocity, topology, and irreversibility remain poorly quantified. We study the Pantai Indah Kapuk 2 (PIK2) coastal mega-development north of Jakarta, Indonesia, using eight years (2017--2024) of Sentinel-2 land-use/land-cover (LULC) data at 10-meter resolution. The landscape is projected onto a Marxian probability simplex partitioning terrestrial pixels into Commons, Agrarian, and Capital fractions. Fisher-Rao (FR) geodesic distances on this simplex identify a transformation pulse of 0.405~rad/yr during 2019--2020, coinciding with major construction activity. Absorbing Markov chain analysis yields expected absorption times into the built environment of 46.0~years for cropland and 38.1~years for tree cover, with a pooled built-area self-retention rate of 96.4%. Percolation analysis reveals that a giant connected component containing 89--95% of all built pixels persists at occupation probabilities p in [0.096, 0.162], far below the random percolation threshold p_c approx 0.593, indicating planned rather than stochastic spatial growth. The box-counting fractal dimension of the urban boundary increases from d_f = 1.316 to 1.397, consistent with increasingly irregular frontier expansion. These results suggest that information-geometric and statistical-mechanical tools can characterize the kinematic and topological signatures of capitalist spatial accumulation with quantitative precision.

Finding multiple temporal relationships among locations can benefit a bunch of urban applications, such as dynamic offline advertising and smart public transport planning. While some efforts have been made on finding static relationships among locations, little attention is focused on studying time-aware location relationships. Indeed, abundant location-based human activities are time-varying and the availability of these data enables a new paradigm for understanding the dynamic relationships in a period among connective locations. To this end, we propose to study a new problem, namely multi-Temporal relationship inference among locations (Trial for short), where the major challenge is how to integrate dynamic and geographical influence under the relationship sparsity constraint. Specifically, we propose a solution to Trial with a graph learning scheme, which includes a spatially evolving graph neural network (SEENet) with two collaborative components: spatially evolving graph convolution module (SEConv) and spatially evolving self-supervised learning strategy (SE-SSL). SEConv performs the intra-time aggregation and inter-time propagation to capture the multifaceted spatially evolving contexts from the view of location message passing. In addition, SE-SSL designs time-aware self-supervised learning tasks in a global-local manner with additional evolving constraint to enhance the location representation learning and further handle the relationship sparsity. Finally, experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method over several state-of-the-art approaches.

Human-factor analysis typically employs correlation analysis and significance testing to identify relationships between variables. However, these descriptive ('what-is') methods, while effective for identifying associations, are often insufficient for answering causal ('what-if') questions. Their application in such contexts often overlooks confounding and colliding variables, potentially leading to bias and suboptimal or incorrect decisions. We advocate for explicitly distinguishing descriptive from interventional questions in human-factor analysis, and applying causal inference frameworks specifically to these problems to prevent methodological mismatches. This approach disentangles complex variable relationships and enables counterfactual reasoning. Using post-occupancy evaluation (POE) data from the Center for the Built Environment's (CBE) Occupant Survey as a demonstration case, we show how causal discovery reveals intervention hierarchies and directional relationships that traditional associational analysis misses. The systematic distinction between causally associated and independent variables, combined with intervention prioritization capabilities, offers broad applicability to complex human-centric systems, for example, in building science or ergonomics, where understanding intervention effects is critical for optimization and decision-making.

Building world models with spatial consistency and real-time interactivity remains a fundamental challenge in computer vision. Current video generation paradigms often struggle with a lack of spatial persistence and insufficient visual realism, making it difficult to support seamless navigation in complex environments. To address these challenges, we propose INSPATIO-WORLD, a novel real-time framework capable of recovering and generating high-fidelity, dynamic interactive scenes from a single reference video. At the core of our approach is a Spatiotemporal Autoregressive (STAR) architecture, which enables consistent and controllable scene evolution through two tightly coupled components: Implicit Spatiotemporal Cache aggregates reference and historical observations into a latent world representation, ensuring global consistency during long-horizon navigation; Explicit Spatial Constraint Module enforces geometric structure and translates user interactions into precise and physically plausible camera trajectories. Furthermore, we introduce Joint Distribution Matching Distillation (JDMD). By using real-world data distributions as a regularizing guide, JDMD effectively overcomes the fidelity degradation typically caused by over-reliance on synthetic data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that INSPATIO-WORLD significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) models in spatial consistency and interaction precision, ranking first among real-time interactive methods on the WorldScore-Dynamic benchmark, and establishing a practical pipeline for navigating 4D environments reconstructed from monocular videos.

Deploying robots in human-shared environments requires a deep understanding of how nearby agents and objects interact. Employing causal inference to model cause-and-effect relationships facilitates the prediction of human behaviours and enables the anticipation of robot interventions. However, a significant challenge arises due to the absence of implementation of existing causal discovery methods within the ROS ecosystem, the standard de-facto framework in robotics, hindering effective utilisation on real robots. To bridge this gap, in our previous work we proposed ROS-Causal, a ROS-based framework designed for onboard data collection and causal discovery in human-robot spatial interactions. In this work, we present an experimental evaluation of ROS-Causal both in simulation and on a new dataset of human-robot spatial interactions in a lab scenario, to assess its performance and effectiveness. Our analysis demonstrates the efficacy of this approach, showcasing how causal models can be extracted directly onboard by robots during data collection. The online causal models generated from the simulation are consistent with those from lab experiments. These findings can help researchers to enhance the performance of robotic systems in shared environments, firstly by studying the causal relations between variables in simulation without real people, and then facilitating the actual robot deployment in real human environments. ROS-Causal: https://lcastri.github.io/roscausal

We present 3DScenePrompt, a framework that generates the next video chunk from arbitrary-length input while enabling precise camera control and preserving scene consistency. Unlike methods conditioned on a single image or a short clip, we employ dual spatio-temporal conditioning that reformulates context-view referencing across the input video. Our approach conditions on both temporally adjacent frames for motion continuity and spatially adjacent content for scene consistency. However, when generating beyond temporal boundaries, directly using spatially adjacent frames would incorrectly preserve dynamic elements from the past. We address this by introducing a 3D scene memory that represents exclusively the static geometry extracted from the entire input video. To construct this memory, we leverage dynamic SLAM with our newly introduced dynamic masking strategy that explicitly separates static scene geometry from moving elements. The static scene representation can then be projected to any target viewpoint, providing geometrically consistent warped views that serve as strong 3D spatial prompts while allowing dynamic regions to evolve naturally from temporal context. This enables our model to maintain long-range spatial coherence and precise camera control without sacrificing computational efficiency or motion realism. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework significantly outperforms existing methods in scene consistency, camera controllability, and generation quality. Project page : https://cvlab-kaist.github.io/3DScenePrompt/

Urban causal research is essential for understanding the complex dynamics of cities and informing evidence-based policies. However, it is challenged by the inefficiency and bias of hypothesis generation, barriers to multimodal data complexity, and the methodological fragility of causal experimentation. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) present an opportunity to rethink how urban causal analysis is conducted. This Perspective examines current urban causal research by analyzing taxonomies that categorize research topics, data sources, and methodological approaches to identify structural gaps. We then introduce an LLM-driven conceptual framework, AutoUrbanCI, composed of four distinct modular agents responsible for hypothesis generation, data engineering, experiment design and execution, and results interpretation with policy recommendations. We propose evaluation criteria for rigor and transparency and reflect on implications for human-AI collaboration, equity, and accountability. We call for a new research agenda that embraces AI-augmented workflows not as replacements for human expertise but as tools to broaden participation, improve reproducibility, and unlock more inclusive forms of urban causal reasoning.

Spatial understanding is a fundamental cornerstone of human-level intelligence. Nonetheless, current research predominantly focuses on domain-specific data production, leaving a critical void: the absence of a principled, open-source engine capable of fully unleashing the potential of high-quality spatial data. To bridge this gap, we elucidate the design principles of a robust data generation system and introduce OpenSpatial -- an open-source data engine engineered for high quality, extensive scalability, broad task diversity, and optimized efficiency. OpenSpatial adopts 3D bounding boxes as the fundamental primitive to construct a comprehensive data hierarchy across five foundational tasks: Spatial Measurement (SM), Spatial Relationship (SR), Camera Perception (CP), Multi-view Consistency (MC), and Scene-Aware Reasoning (SAR). Leveraging this scalable infrastructure, we curate OpenSpatial-3M, a large-scale dataset comprising 3 million high-fidelity samples. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that versatile models trained on our dataset achieve state-of-the-art performance across a wide spectrum of spatial reasoning benchmarks. Notably, the best-performing model exhibits a substantial average improvement of 19 percent, relatively. Furthermore, we provide a systematic analysis of how data attributes influence spatial perception. By open-sourcing both the engine and the 3M-scale dataset, we provide a robust foundation to accelerate future research in spatial intelligence.

Diffusion models, despite their impressive demos, often produce hallucinatory samples with structural inconsistencies that lie outside of the support of the true data distribution. Such hallucinations can be attributed to excessive smoothing between modes of the data distribution. However, semantic interpolations are often desirable and can lead to generation diversity, thus we believe a more nuanced solution is required. In this work, we introduce Dynamic Guidance, which tackles this issue. Dynamic Guidance mitigates hallucinations by selectively sharpening the score function only along the pre-determined directions known to cause artifacts, while preserving valid semantic variations. To our knowledge, this is the first approach that addresses hallucinations at generation time rather than through post-hoc filtering. Dynamic Guidance substantially reduces hallucinations on both controlled and natural image datasets, significantly outperforming baselines.

Causal Discovery plays a pivotal role in revealing relationships among observed variables, particularly in the temporal setup. While the majority of CD methods rely on synthetic data for evaluation, and recently for training, these fall short in accurately mirroring real-world scenarios; an effect even more evident in temporal data. Generation techniques depending on simplified assumptions on causal structure, effects and time, limit the quality and diversity of the simulated data. In this work, we introduce Temporal Causal-based Simulation (TCS), a robust framework for generating realistic time-series data and their associated temporal causal graphs. The approach is structured in three phases: estimating the true lagged causal structure of the data, approximating the functional dependencies between variables and learning the noise distribution of the corresponding causal model, each part of which can be explicitly tailored based on data assumptions and characteristics. Through an extensive evaluation process, we highlight that single detection methods for generated data discrimination prove inadequate, accentuating it as a multifaceted challenge. For this, we detail a Min-max optimization phase that draws on AutoML techniques. Our contributions include a flexible, model-agnostic pipeline for generating realistic temporal causal data, a thorough evaluation setup which enhances the validity of the generated datasets and insights into the challenges posed by realistic data generation. Through experiments involving not only real but also semi-synthetic and purely synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that while sampling realistic causal data remains a complex task, our method enriches the domain of generating sensible causal-based temporal data.

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

Simulating robot-world interactions is a cornerstone of Embodied AI. Recently, a few works have shown promise in leveraging video generations to transcend the rigid visual/physical constraints of traditional simulators. However, they primarily operate in 2D space or are guided by static environmental cues, ignoring the fundamental reality that robot-world interactions are inherently 4D spatiotemporal events that require precise interactive modeling. To restore this 4D essence while ensuring the precise robot control, we introduce Kinema4D, a new action-conditioned 4D generative robotic simulator that disentangles the robot-world interaction into: i) Precise 4D representation of robot controls: we drive a URDF-based 3D robot via kinematics, producing a precise 4D robot control trajectory. ii) Generative 4D modeling of environmental reactions: we project the 4D robot trajectory into a pointmap as a spatiotemporal visual signal, controlling the generative model to synthesize complex environments' reactive dynamics into synchronized RGB/pointmap sequences. To facilitate training, we curated a large-scale dataset called Robo4D-200k, comprising 201,426 robot interaction episodes with high-quality 4D annotations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method effectively simulates physically-plausible, geometry-consistent, and embodiment-agnostic interactions that faithfully mirror diverse real-world dynamics. For the first time, it shows potential zero-shot transfer capability, providing a high-fidelity foundation for advancing next-generation embodied simulation.

Random network models play a prominent role in modeling, analyzing and understanding complex phenomena on real-life networks. However, a key property of networks is often neglected: many real-world networks exhibit spatial structure, the tendency of a node to select neighbors with a probability depending on physical distance. Here, we introduce a class of random spatial networks (RSNs) which generalizes many existing random network models but adds spatial structure. In these networks, nodes are placed randomly in space and joined in edges with a probability depending on their distance and their individual expected degrees, in a manner that crucially remains analytically tractable. We use this network class to propose a new generalization of small-world networks, where the average shortest path lengths in the graph are small, as in classical Watts-Strogatz small-world networks, but with close spatial proximity of nodes that are neighbors in the network playing the role of large clustering. Small-world effects are demonstrated on these spatial small-world networks without clustering. We are able to derive partial integro-differential equations governing susceptible-infectious-recovered disease spreading through an RSN, and we demonstrate the existence of traveling wave solutions. If the distance kernel governing edge placement decays slower than exponential, the population-scale dynamics are dominated by long-range hops followed by local spread of traveling waves. This provides a theoretical modeling framework for recent observations of how epidemics like Ebola evolve in modern connected societies, with long-range connections seeding new focal points from which the epidemic locally spreads in a wavelike manner.

Spatial reasoning is a crucial component of both biological and artificial intelligence. In this work, we present a comprehensive study of the capability of current state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) on spatial reasoning. To support our study, we created and contribute a novel Spatial Reasoning Characterization (SpaRC) framework and Spatial Reasoning Paths (SpaRP) datasets, to enable an in-depth understanding of the spatial relations and compositions as well as the usefulness of spatial reasoning chains. We found that all the state-of-the-art LLMs do not perform well on the datasets -- their performances are consistently low across different setups. The spatial reasoning capability improves substantially as model sizes scale up. Finetuning both large language models (e.g., Llama-2-70B) and smaller ones (e.g., Llama-2-13B) can significantly improve their F1-scores by 7--32 absolute points. We also found that the top proprietary LLMs still significantly outperform their open-source counterparts in topological spatial understanding and reasoning.

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining. The concept of large causal models (LCMs) envisions a class of pre-trained neural architectures specifically designed for temporal causal discovery. Prior approaches are constrained to small variable counts, degrade with larger inputs, and rely heavily on synthetic data, limiting generalization. We propose a principled framework for LCMs, combining diverse synthetic generators with realistic time-series datasets, allowing learning at scale. Extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and realistic benchmarks show that LCMs scale effectively to higher variable counts and deeper architectures while maintaining strong performance. Trained models achieve competitive or superior accuracy compared to classical and neural baselines, particularly in out-of-distribution settings, while enabling fast, single-pass inference. Results demonstrate LCMs as a promising foundation-model paradigm for temporal causal discovery. Experiments and model weights are available at https://github.com/kougioulis/LCM-paper/.

True intelligence hinges on the ability to uncover and leverage hidden causal relations. Despite significant progress in AI and computer vision (CV), there remains a lack of benchmarks for assessing models' abilities to infer latent causality from complex visual data. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{Causal3D}, a novel and comprehensive benchmark that integrates structured data (tables) with corresponding visual representations (images) to evaluate causal reasoning. Designed within a systematic framework, Causal3D comprises 19 3D-scene datasets capturing diverse causal relations, views, and backgrounds, enabling evaluations across scenes of varying complexity. We assess multiple state-of-the-art methods, including classical causal discovery, causal representation learning, and large/vision-language models (LLMs/VLMs). Our experiments show that as causal structures grow more complex without prior knowledge, performance declines significantly, highlighting the challenges even advanced methods face in complex causal scenarios. Causal3D serves as a vital resource for advancing causal reasoning in CV and fostering trustworthy AI in critical domains.

Humans possess spatial reasoning abilities that enable them to understand spaces through multimodal observations, such as vision and sound. Large multimodal reasoning models extend these abilities by learning to perceive and reason, showing promising performance across diverse spatial tasks. However, systematic reviews and publicly available benchmarks for these models remain limited. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of multimodal spatial reasoning tasks with large models, categorizing recent progress in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) and introducing open benchmarks for evaluation. We begin by outlining general spatial reasoning, focusing on post-training techniques, explainability, and architecture. Beyond classical 2D tasks, we examine spatial relationship reasoning, scene and layout understanding, as well as visual question answering and grounding in 3D space. We also review advances in embodied AI, including vision-language navigation and action models. Additionally, we consider emerging modalities such as audio and egocentric video, which contribute to novel spatial understanding through new sensors. We believe this survey establishes a solid foundation and offers insights into the growing field of multimodal spatial reasoning. Updated information about this survey, codes and implementation of the open benchmarks can be found at https://github.com/zhengxuJosh/Awesome-Spatial-Reasoning.

Spatiotemporal reasoning plays a key role in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Despite advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), their capacity to reason about complex spatiotemporal signals remains underexplored. This paper proposes a hierarchical SpatioTemporal reAsoning benchmaRK, STARK, to systematically evaluate LLMs across three levels of reasoning complexity: state estimation (e.g., predicting field variables, localizing and tracking events in space and time), spatiotemporal reasoning over states (e.g., inferring spatial-temporal relationships), and world-knowledge-aware reasoning that integrates contextual and domain knowledge (e.g., intent prediction, landmark-aware navigation). We curate 26 distinct spatiotemporal tasks with diverse sensor modalities, comprising 14,552 challenges where models answer directly or by Python Code Interpreter. Evaluating 3 LRMs and 8 LLMs, we find LLMs achieve limited success in tasks requiring geometric reasoning (e.g., multilateration or triangulation), particularly as complexity increases. Surprisingly, LRMs show robust performance across tasks with various levels of difficulty, often competing or surpassing traditional first-principle-based methods. Our results show that in reasoning tasks requiring world knowledge, the performance gap between LLMs and LRMs narrows, with some LLMs even surpassing LRMs. However, the LRM o3 model continues to achieve leading performance across all evaluated tasks, a result attributed primarily to the larger size of the reasoning models. STARK motivates future innovations in model architectures and reasoning paradigms for intelligent CPS by providing a structured framework to identify limitations in the spatiotemporal reasoning of LLMs and LRMs.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

Recent advances in foundation models, especially in large multi-modal models and conversational agents, have ignited interest in the potential of generally capable embodied agents. Such agents will require the ability to perform new tasks in many different real-world environments. However, current foundation models fail to accurately model physical interactions and are therefore insufficient for Embodied AI. The study of causality lends itself to the construction of veridical world models, which are crucial for accurately predicting the outcomes of possible interactions. This paper focuses on the prospects of building foundation world models for the upcoming generation of embodied agents and presents a novel viewpoint on the significance of causality within these. We posit that integrating causal considerations is vital to facilitating meaningful physical interactions with the world. Finally, we demystify misconceptions about causality in this context and present our outlook for future research.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown great promise in planning and reasoning applications. These tasks demand robust systems, which arguably require a causal understanding of the environment. While LLMs can acquire and reflect common sense causal knowledge from their pretraining data, this information is often incomplete, incorrect, or inapplicable to a specific environment. In contrast, causal representation learning (CRL) focuses on identifying the underlying causal structure within a given environment. We propose a framework that integrates CRLs with LLMs to enable causally-aware reasoning and planning. This framework learns a causal world model, with causal variables linked to natural language expressions. This mapping provides LLMs with a flexible interface to process and generate descriptions of actions and states in text form. Effectively, the causal world model acts as a simulator that the LLM can query and interact with. We evaluate the framework on causal inference and planning tasks across temporal scales and environmental complexities. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, with the causally-aware method outperforming LLM-based reasoners, especially for longer planning horizons.

Modeling and synthesizing complex hand-object interactions remains a significant challenge, even for state-of-the-art physics engines. Conventional simulation-based approaches rely on explicitly defined rigid object models and pre-scripted hand gestures, making them inadequate for capturing dynamic interactions with non-rigid or articulated entities such as deformable fabrics, elastic materials, hinge-based structures, furry surfaces, or even living creatures. In this paper, we present SpriteHand, an autoregressive video generation framework for real-time synthesis of versatile hand-object interaction videos across a wide range of object types and motion patterns. SpriteHand takes as input a static object image and a video stream in which the hands are imagined to interact with the virtual object embedded in a real-world scene, and generates corresponding hand-object interaction effects in real time. Our model employs a causal inference architecture for autoregressive generation and leverages a hybrid post-training approach to enhance visual realism and temporal coherence. Our 1.3B model supports real-time streaming generation at around 18 FPS and 640x368 resolution, with an approximate 150 ms latency on a single NVIDIA RTX 5090 GPU, and more than a minute of continuous output. Experiments demonstrate superior visual quality, physical plausibility, and interaction fidelity compared to both generative and engine-based baselines.

Large-scale video generation models have demonstrated emergent physical coherence, positioning them as potential world models. However, a gap remains between contemporary "stateless" video architectures and classic state-centric world model theories. This work bridges this gap by proposing a novel taxonomy centered on two pillars: State Construction and Dynamics Modeling. We categorize state construction into implicit paradigms (context management) and explicit paradigms (latent compression), while dynamics modeling is analyzed through knowledge integration and architectural reformulation. Furthermore, we advocate for a transition in evaluation from visual fidelity to functional benchmarks, testing physical persistence and causal reasoning. We conclude by identifying two critical frontiers: enhancing persistence via data-driven memory and compressed fidelity, and advancing causality through latent factor decoupling and reasoning-prior integration. By addressing these challenges, the field can evolve from generating visually plausible videos to building robust, general-purpose world simulators.

Spatio-temporal reasoning is essential in understanding real-world environments in various fields, eg, autonomous driving and sports analytics. Recent advances have improved the spatial reasoning ability of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) by introducing large-scale data, but these models still struggle to analyze kinematic elements like traveled distance and speed of moving objects. To bridge this gap, we construct a spatio-temporal reasoning dataset and benchmark involving kinematic instruction tuning, referred to as STKit and STKit-Bench. They consist of real-world videos with 3D annotations, detailing object motion dynamics: traveled distance, speed, movement direction, inter-object distance comparisons, and relative movement direction. To further scale such data construction to videos without 3D labels, we propose an automatic pipeline to generate pseudo-labels using 4D reconstruction in real-world scale. With our kinematic instruction tuning data for spatio-temporal reasoning, we present ST-VLM, a VLM enhanced for spatio-temporal reasoning, which exhibits outstanding performance on STKit-Bench. Furthermore, we show that ST-VLM generalizes robustly across diverse domains and tasks, outperforming baselines on other spatio-temporal benchmarks (eg, ActivityNet, TVQA+). Finally, by integrating learned spatio-temporal reasoning with existing abilities, ST-VLM enables complex multi-step reasoning. Project page: https://ikodoh.github.io/ST-VLM.

Indonesia's nickel ore export ban has driven rapid expansion of smelting and hydrometallurgical processing capacity at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), now the world's largest integrated nickel processing complex, on the coast of Central Sulawesi. Whether this industrialization has degraded the adjacent marine environment remains unquantified. We apply Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) causal inference to a multi-decadal, multi-sensor satellite ocean color record of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, K_d(490), to test for a causal link between IMIP expansion and nearshore turbidity change. A consensus structural breakpoint, a significant posterior causal effect estimated against a Banda Sea counterfactual, and a distribution-free placebo rank test collectively establish that coastal water clarity deteriorated after the transition from initial nickel pig iron production to hyper-expansion of high-pressure acid leaching facilities for battery-grade nickel. Satellite-derived land cover analysis independently corroborates this timing, showing substantial built-area growth and concurrent tree cover loss within the IMIP footprint. The resulting euphotic zone shoaling occurs in oligotrophic waters supporting high marine biodiversity, where even moderate optical degradation may impair coral photosynthesis and compress depth-dependent reef habitat. These findings quantify a marine environmental cost absent from Indonesia's mineral downstreaming policy discourse and demonstrate a transferable, satellite-based quasi-experimental framework for causal impact assessment at coastal industrial sites in data-limited tropical settings.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

Recent advancements in world models have revolutionized dynamic environment simulation, allowing systems to foresee future states and assess potential actions. In autonomous driving, these capabilities help vehicles anticipate the behavior of other road users, perform risk-aware planning, accelerate training in simulation, and adapt to novel scenarios, thereby enhancing safety and reliability. Current approaches exhibit deficiencies in maintaining robust 3D geometric consistency or accumulating artifacts during occlusion handling, both critical for reliable safety assessment in autonomous navigation tasks. To address this, we introduce GeoDrive, which explicitly integrates robust 3D geometry conditions into driving world models to enhance spatial understanding and action controllability. Specifically, we first extract a 3D representation from the input frame and then obtain its 2D rendering based on the user-specified ego-car trajectory. To enable dynamic modeling, we propose a dynamic editing module during training to enhance the renderings by editing the positions of the vehicles. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms existing models in both action accuracy and 3D spatial awareness, leading to more realistic, adaptable, and reliable scene modeling for safer autonomous driving. Additionally, our model can generalize to novel trajectories and offers interactive scene editing capabilities, such as object editing and object trajectory control.

While multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have made groundbreaking progress in embodied intelligence, they still face significant challenges in spatial reasoning for complex long-horizon tasks. To address this gap, we propose EmbodiedVSR (Embodied Visual Spatial Reasoning), a novel framework that integrates dynamic scene graph-guided Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning to enhance spatial understanding for embodied agents. By explicitly constructing structured knowledge representations through dynamic scene graphs, our method enables zero-shot spatial reasoning without task-specific fine-tuning. This approach not only disentangles intricate spatial relationships but also aligns reasoning steps with actionable environmental dynamics. To rigorously evaluate performance, we introduce the eSpatial-Benchmark, a comprehensive dataset including real-world embodied scenarios with fine-grained spatial annotations and adaptive task difficulty levels. Experiments demonstrate that our framework significantly outperforms existing MLLM-based methods in accuracy and reasoning coherence, particularly in long-horizon tasks requiring iterative environment interaction. The results reveal the untapped potential of MLLMs for embodied intelligence when equipped with structured, explainable reasoning mechanisms, paving the way for more reliable deployment in real-world spatial applications. The codes and datasets will be released soon.

The advancement of remote sensing technology has improved the spatial resolution of satellite imagery, facilitating more detailed visual representations for diverse interpretations. However, existing methods exhibit limited generalization capabilities across varied applications. While some contemporary foundation models demonstrate potential, they are hindered by insufficient cross-task adaptability and primarily process low-resolution imagery of restricted sizes, thus failing to fully exploit high-resolution data or leverage comprehensive large-scene semantics. Crucially, remote sensing imagery differs fundamentally from natural images, as key foreground targets (eg., maritime objects, artificial structures) often occupy minimal spatial proportions (~1%) and exhibit sparse distributions. Efficiently modeling cross-task generalizable knowledge from lengthy 2D tokens (~100,000) poses a significant challenge yet remains critical for remote sensing image understanding. Motivated by the selective attention mechanisms inherent to the human visual system, we propose DynamicVis, a dynamic visual perception foundation model for remote sensing imagery. The framework integrates a novel dynamic region perception backbone based on the selective state space model, which strategically balances localized detail extraction with global contextual integration, enabling computationally efficient encoding of large-scale data while maintaining architectural scalability. To enhance cross-task knowledge transferring, we introduce a multi-instance learning paradigm utilizing meta-embedding representations, trained on million-scale region-level annotations. Evaluations across nine downstream tasks demonstrate the model's versatility. DynamicVis achieves multi-level feature modeling with exceptional efficiency, processing (2048x2048) pixels with 97 ms latency (6% of ViT's) and 833 MB GPU memory (3% of ViT's).

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have demonstrated strong reasoning capabilities in geo-localization, yet they often struggle in real-world scenarios where visual cues are sparse, long-tailed, and highly ambiguous. Previous approaches, bound by internal knowledge, often fail to provide verifiable results, yielding confident but ungrounded predictions when faced with confounded evidence. To address these challenges, we propose SpotAgent, a framework that formalizes geo-localization into an agentic reasoning process that leverages expert-level reasoning to synergize visual interpretation with tool-assisted verification. SpotAgent actively explores and verifies visual cues by leveraging external tools (e.g., web search, maps) through a ReAct diagram. We introduce a 3-stage post-training pipeline starting with a Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) stage for basic alignment, followed by an Agentic Cold Start phase utilizing high-quality trajectories synthesized via a Multi-Agent framework, aiming to instill tool-calling expertise. Subsequently, the model's reasoning capabilities are refined through Reinforcement Learning. We propose a Spatially-Aware Dynamic Filtering strategy to enhance the efficiency of the RL stage by prioritizing learnable samples based on spatial difficulty. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that SpotAgent achieves state-of-the-art performance, effectively mitigating hallucinations while delivering precise and verifiable geo-localization.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Humans experience the world through constantly changing visual stimuli, where scenes can shift and move, change in appearance, and vary in distance. The dynamic nature of visual perception is a fundamental aspect of our daily lives, yet the large majority of research on object and scene processing, particularly using fMRI, has focused on static stimuli. While studies of static image perception are attractive due to their computational simplicity, they impose a strong non-naturalistic constraint on our investigation of human vision. In contrast, dynamic visual stimuli offer a more ecologically-valid approach but present new challenges due to the interplay between spatial and temporal information, making it difficult to disentangle the representations of stable image features and motion. To overcome this limitation -- given dynamic inputs, we explicitly decouple the modeling of static image representations and motion representations in the human brain. Three results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. First, we show that visual motion information as optical flow can be predicted (or decoded) from brain activity as measured by fMRI. Second, we show that this predicted motion can be used to realistically animate static images using a motion-conditioned video diffusion model (where the motion is driven by fMRI brain activity). Third, we show prediction in the reverse direction: existing video encoders can be fine-tuned to predict fMRI brain activity from video imagery, and can do so more effectively than image encoders. This foundational work offers a novel, extensible framework for interpreting how the human brain processes dynamic visual information.

We present a unified representation for actionable spatial perception: 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs. Scene graphs are directed graphs where nodes represent entities in the scene (e.g. objects, walls, rooms), and edges represent relations (e.g. inclusion, adjacency) among nodes. Dynamic scene graphs (DSGs) extend this notion to represent dynamic scenes with moving agents (e.g. humans, robots), and to include actionable information that supports planning and decision-making (e.g. spatio-temporal relations, topology at different levels of abstraction). Our second contribution is to provide the first fully automatic Spatial PerceptIon eNgine(SPIN) to build a DSG from visual-inertial data. We integrate state-of-the-art techniques for object and human detection and pose estimation, and we describe how to robustly infer object, robot, and human nodes in crowded scenes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that reconciles visual-inertial SLAM and dense human mesh tracking. Moreover, we provide algorithms to obtain hierarchical representations of indoor environments (e.g. places, structures, rooms) and their relations. Our third contribution is to demonstrate the proposed spatial perception engine in a photo-realistic Unity-based simulator, where we assess its robustness and expressiveness. Finally, we discuss the implications of our proposal on modern robotics applications. 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs can have a profound impact on planning and decision-making, human-robot interaction, long-term autonomy, and scene prediction. A video abstract is available at https://youtu.be/SWbofjhyPzI

This study introduces SpatialPrompting, a novel framework that harnesses the emergent reasoning capabilities of off-the-shelf multimodal large language models to achieve zero-shot spatial reasoning in three-dimensional (3D) environments. Unlike existing methods that rely on expensive 3D-specific fine-tuning with specialized 3D inputs such as point clouds or voxel-based features, SpatialPrompting employs a keyframe-driven prompt generation strategy. This framework uses metrics such as vision-language similarity, Mahalanobis distance, field of view, and image sharpness to select a diverse and informative set of keyframes from image sequences and then integrates them with corresponding camera pose data to effectively abstract spatial relationships and infer complex 3D structures. The proposed framework not only establishes a new paradigm for flexible spatial reasoning that utilizes intuitive visual and positional cues but also achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on benchmark datasets, such as ScanQA and SQA3D, across several metrics. The proposed method effectively eliminates the need for specialized 3D inputs and fine-tuning, offering a simpler and more scalable alternative to conventional approaches.

Autoregressive video diffusion models have proved effective for world modeling and interactive scene generation, with Minecraft gameplay as a representative application. To faithfully simulate play, a model must generate natural content while exploring new scenes and preserve spatial consistency when revisiting explored areas. Under limited computation budgets, it must compress and exploit historical cues within a finite context window, which exposes a trade-off: Temporal-only memory lacks long-term spatial consistency, whereas adding spatial memory strengthens consistency but may degrade new scene generation quality when the model over-relies on insufficient spatial context. We present Memory Forcing, a learning framework that pairs training protocols with a geometry-indexed spatial memory. Hybrid Training exposes distinct gameplay regimes, guiding the model to rely on temporal memory during exploration and incorporate spatial memory for revisits. Chained Forward Training extends autoregressive training with model rollouts, where chained predictions create larger pose variations and encourage reliance on spatial memory for maintaining consistency. Point-to-Frame Retrieval efficiently retrieves history by mapping currently visible points to their source frames, while Incremental 3D Reconstruction maintains and updates an explicit 3D cache. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Memory Forcing achieves superior long-term spatial consistency and generative quality across diverse environments, while maintaining computational efficiency for extended sequences.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose CausalTimePrior, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.

Counterfactual image generation presents significant challenges, including preserving identity, maintaining perceptual quality, and ensuring faithfulness to an underlying causal model. While existing auto-encoding frameworks admit semantic latent spaces which can be manipulated for causal control, they struggle with scalability and fidelity. Advancements in diffusion models present opportunities for improving counterfactual image editing, having demonstrated state-of-the-art visual quality, human-aligned perception and representation learning capabilities. Here, we present a suite of diffusion-based causal mechanisms, introducing the notions of spatial, semantic and dynamic abduction. We propose a general framework that integrates semantic representations into diffusion models through the lens of Pearlian causality to edit images via a counterfactual reasoning process. To our knowledge, this is the first work to consider high-level semantic identity preservation for diffusion counterfactuals and to demonstrate how semantic control enables principled trade-offs between faithful causal control and identity preservation.

LiDAR scene generation has been developing rapidly recently. However, existing methods primarily focus on generating static and single-frame scenes, overlooking the inherently dynamic nature of real-world driving environments. In this work, we introduce DynamicCity, a novel 4D LiDAR generation framework capable of generating large-scale, high-quality LiDAR scenes that capture the temporal evolution of dynamic environments. DynamicCity mainly consists of two key models. 1) A VAE model for learning HexPlane as the compact 4D representation. Instead of using naive averaging operations, DynamicCity employs a novel Projection Module to effectively compress 4D LiDAR features into six 2D feature maps for HexPlane construction, which significantly enhances HexPlane fitting quality (up to 12.56 mIoU gain). Furthermore, we utilize an Expansion & Squeeze Strategy to reconstruct 3D feature volumes in parallel, which improves both network training efficiency and reconstruction accuracy than naively querying each 3D point (up to 7.05 mIoU gain, 2.06x training speedup, and 70.84% memory reduction). 2) A DiT-based diffusion model for HexPlane generation. To make HexPlane feasible for DiT generation, a Padded Rollout Operation is proposed to reorganize all six feature planes of the HexPlane as a squared 2D feature map. In particular, various conditions could be introduced in the diffusion or sampling process, supporting versatile 4D generation applications, such as trajectory- and command-driven generation, inpainting, and layout-conditioned generation. Extensive experiments on the CarlaSC and Waymo datasets demonstrate that DynamicCity significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art 4D LiDAR generation methods across multiple metrics. The code will be released to facilitate future research.

Spatial perception and reasoning are core components of human cognition, encompassing object recognition, spatial relational understanding, and dynamic reasoning. Despite progress in computer vision, existing benchmarks reveal significant gaps in models' abilities to accurately recognize object attributes and reason about spatial relationships, both essential for dynamic reasoning. To address these limitations, we propose MIRAGE, a multi-modal benchmark designed to evaluate models' capabilities in Counting (object attribute recognition), Relation (spatial relational reasoning), and Counting with Relation. Through diverse and complex scenarios requiring fine-grained recognition and reasoning, MIRAGE highlights critical limitations in state-of-the-art models, underscoring the need for improved representations and reasoning frameworks. By targeting these foundational abilities, MIRAGE provides a pathway toward spatiotemporal reasoning in future research.

Spatial reasoning tasks in multi-agent environments such as event prediction, agent type identification, or missing data imputation are important for multiple applications (e.g., autonomous surveillance over sensor networks and subtasks for reinforcement learning (RL)). StarCraft II game replays encode intelligent (and adversarial) multi-agent behavior and could provide a testbed for these tasks; however, extracting simple and standardized representations for prototyping these tasks is laborious and hinders reproducibility. In contrast, MNIST and CIFAR10, despite their extreme simplicity, have enabled rapid prototyping and reproducibility of ML methods. Following the simplicity of these datasets, we construct a benchmark spatial reasoning dataset based on StarCraft II replays that exhibit complex multi-agent behaviors, while still being as easy to use as MNIST and CIFAR10. Specifically, we carefully summarize a window of 255 consecutive game states to create 3.6 million summary images from 60,000 replays, including all relevant metadata such as game outcome and player races. We develop three formats of decreasing complexity: Hyperspectral images that include one channel for every unit type (similar to multispectral geospatial images), RGB images that mimic CIFAR10, and grayscale images that mimic MNIST. We show how this dataset can be used for prototyping spatial reasoning methods. All datasets, code for extraction, and code for dataset loading can be found at https://starcraftdata.davidinouye.com

Spatio-temporal predictive learning is a learning paradigm that enables models to learn spatial and temporal patterns by predicting future frames from given past frames in an unsupervised manner. Despite remarkable progress in recent years, a lack of systematic understanding persists due to the diverse settings, complex implementation, and difficult reproducibility. Without standardization, comparisons can be unfair and insights inconclusive. To address this dilemma, we propose OpenSTL, a comprehensive benchmark for spatio-temporal predictive learning that categorizes prevalent approaches into recurrent-based and recurrent-free models. OpenSTL provides a modular and extensible framework implementing various state-of-the-art methods. We conduct standard evaluations on datasets across various domains, including synthetic moving object trajectory, human motion, driving scenes, traffic flow and weather forecasting. Based on our observations, we provide a detailed analysis of how model architecture and dataset properties affect spatio-temporal predictive learning performance. Surprisingly, we find that recurrent-free models achieve a good balance between efficiency and performance than recurrent models. Thus, we further extend the common MetaFormers to boost recurrent-free spatial-temporal predictive learning. We open-source the code and models at https://github.com/chengtan9907/OpenSTL.

Visual imitation learning is effective for robots to learn versatile tasks. However, many existing methods rely on behavior cloning with supervised historical trajectories, limiting their 3D spatial and 4D spatiotemporal awareness. Consequently, these methods struggle to capture the 3D structures and 4D spatiotemporal relationships necessary for real-world deployment. In this work, we propose 4D Diffusion Policy (DP4), a novel visual imitation learning method that incorporates spatiotemporal awareness into diffusion-based policies. Unlike traditional approaches that rely on trajectory cloning, DP4 leverages a dynamic Gaussian world model to guide the learning of 3D spatial and 4D spatiotemporal perceptions from interactive environments. Our method constructs the current 3D scene from a single-view RGB-D observation and predicts the future 3D scene, optimizing trajectory generation by explicitly modeling both spatial and temporal dependencies. Extensive experiments across 17 simulation tasks with 173 variants and 3 real-world robotic tasks demonstrate that the 4D Diffusion Policy (DP4) outperforms baseline methods, improving the average simulation task success rate by 16.4% (Adroit), 14% (DexArt), and 6.45% (RLBench), and the average real-world robotic task success rate by 8.6%.

Large-scale scene data is essential for training and testing in robot learning. Neural reconstruction methods have promised the capability of reconstructing large physically-grounded outdoor scenes from captured sensor data. However, these methods have baked-in static environments and only allow for limited scene control -- they are functionally constrained in scene and trajectory diversity by the captures from which they are reconstructed. In contrast, generating driving data with recent image or video diffusion models offers control, however, at the cost of geometry grounding and causality. In this work, we aim to bridge this gap and present a method that directly generates large-scale 3D driving scenes with accurate geometry, allowing for causal novel view synthesis with object permanence and explicit 3D geometry estimation. The proposed method combines the generation of a proxy geometry and environment representation with score distillation from learned 2D image priors. We find that this approach allows for high controllability, enabling the prompt-guided geometry and high-fidelity texture and structure that can be conditioned on map layouts -- producing realistic and geometrically consistent 3D generations of complex driving scenes.

Current controllable diffusion models typically rely on fixed architectures that modify intermediate activations to inject guidance conditioned on a new modality. This approach uses a static conditioning strategy for a dynamic, multi-stage denoising process, limiting the model's ability to adapt its response as the generation evolves from coarse structure to fine detail. We introduce TC-LoRA (Temporally Modulated Conditional LoRA), a new paradigm that enables dynamic, context-aware control by conditioning the model's weights directly. Our framework uses a hypernetwork to generate LoRA adapters on-the-fly, tailoring weight modifications for the frozen backbone at each diffusion step based on time and the user's condition. This mechanism enables the model to learn and execute an explicit, adaptive strategy for applying conditional guidance throughout the entire generation process. Through experiments on various data domains, we demonstrate that this dynamic, parametric control significantly enhances generative fidelity and adherence to spatial conditions compared to static, activation-based methods. TC-LoRA establishes an alternative approach in which the model's conditioning strategy is modified through a deeper functional adaptation of its weights, allowing control to align with the dynamic demands of the task and generative stage.

Visual Spatial Reasoning (VSR) is a core human cognitive ability and a critical requirement for advancing embodied intelligence and autonomous systems. Despite recent progress in Vision-Language Models (VLMs), achieving human-level VSR remains highly challenging due to the complexity of representing and reasoning over three-dimensional space. In this paper, we present a systematic investigation of VSR in VLMs, encompassing a review of existing methodologies across input modalities, model architectures, training strategies, and reasoning mechanisms. Furthermore, we categorize spatial intelligence into three levels of capability, ie, basic perception, spatial understanding, spatial planning, and curate SIBench, a spatial intelligence benchmark encompassing nearly 20 open-source datasets across 23 task settings. Experiments with state-of-the-art VLMs reveal a pronounced gap between perception and reasoning, as models show competence in basic perceptual tasks but consistently underperform in understanding and planning tasks, particularly in numerical estimation, multi-view reasoning, temporal dynamics, and spatial imagination. These findings underscore the substantial challenges that remain in achieving spatial intelligence, while providing both a systematic roadmap and a comprehensive benchmark to drive future research in the field. The related resources of this study are accessible at https://sibench.github.io/Awesome-Visual-Spatial-Reasoning/.

Achieving spatial intelligence requires moving beyond visual plausibility to build world simulators grounded in physical laws. While coding LLMs have advanced static 3D scene generation, extending this paradigm to 4D dynamics remains a critical frontier. This task presents two fundamental challenges: multi-scale context entanglement, where monolithic generation fails to balance local object structures with global environmental layouts; and a semantic-physical execution gap, where open-loop code generation leads to physical hallucinations lacking dynamic fidelity. We introduce Code2Worlds, a framework that formulates 4D generation as language-to-simulation code generation. First, we propose a dual-stream architecture that disentangles retrieval-augmented object generation from hierarchical environmental orchestration. Second, to ensure dynamic fidelity, we establish a physics-aware closed-loop mechanism in which a PostProcess Agent scripts dynamics, coupled with a VLM-Motion Critic that performs self-reflection to iteratively refine simulation code. Evaluations on the Code4D benchmark show Code2Worlds outperforms baselines with a 41% SGS gain and 49% higher Richness, while uniquely generating physics-aware dynamics absent in prior static methods. Code: https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/Code2Worlds. Website: https://aigeeksgroup.github.io/Code2Worlds.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides high spatial resolution and excellent soft-tissue contrast without using harmful ionising radiation. Dynamic MRI is an essential tool for interventions to visualise movements or changes of the target organ. However, such MRI acquisition with high temporal resolution suffers from limited spatial resolution - also known as the spatio-temporal trade-off of dynamic MRI. Several approaches, including deep learning based super-resolution approaches, have been proposed to mitigate this trade-off. Nevertheless, such an approach typically aims to super-resolve each time-point separately, treating them as individual volumes. This research addresses the problem by creating a deep learning model which attempts to learn both spatial and temporal relationships. A modified 3D UNet model, DDoS-UNet, is proposed - which takes the low-resolution volume of the current time-point along with a prior image volume. Initially, the network is supplied with a static high-resolution planning scan as the prior image along with the low-resolution input to super-resolve the first time-point. Then it continues step-wise by using the super-resolved time-points as the prior image while super-resolving the subsequent time-points. The model performance was tested with 3D dynamic data that was undersampled to different in-plane levels. The proposed network achieved an average SSIM value of 0.951pm0.017 while reconstructing the lowest resolution data (i.e. only 4\% of the k-space acquired) - which could result in a theoretical acceleration factor of 25. The proposed approach can be used to reduce the required scan-time while achieving high spatial resolution.

Spatially variant dynamic convolution provides a principled approach of integrating spatial adaptivity into deep neural networks. However, mainstream designs in medical segmentation commonly generate dynamic kernels through average pooling, which implicitly collapses high-frequency spatial details into a coarse, spatially-compressed representation, leading to over-smoothed predictions that degrade the fidelity of fine-grained clinical structures. To address this limitation, we propose a novel Structure-Guided Dynamic Convolution (SGDC) mechanism, which leverages an explicitly supervised structure-extraction branch to guide the generation of dynamic kernels and gating signals for structure-aware feature modulation. Specifically, the high-fidelity boundary information from this auxiliary branch is fused with semantic features to enable spatially-precise feature modulation. By replacing context aggregation with pixel-wise structural guidance, the proposed design effectively prevents the information loss introduced by average pooling. Experimental results show that SGDC achieves state-of-the-art performance on ISIC 2016, PH2, ISIC 2018, and CoNIC datasets, delivering superior boundary fidelity by reducing the Hausdorff Distance (HD95) by 2.05, and providing consistent IoU gains of 0.99\%-1.49\% over pooling-based baselines. Moreover, the mechanism exhibits strong potential for extension to other fine-grained, structure-sensitive vision tasks, such as small-object detection, offering a principled solution for preserving structural integrity in medical image analysis. To facilitate reproducibility and encourage further research, the implementation code for both our SGE and SGDC modules has been is publicly released at https://github.com/solstice0621/SGDC.

Leveraging diverse robotic data for pretraining remains a critical challenge. Existing methods typically model the dataset's action distribution using simple observations as inputs. However, these inputs are often incomplete, resulting in a dispersed conditional action distribution-an issue we refer to as coordinate system chaos and state chaos. This inconsistency significantly hampers pretraining efficiency. To address this, we propose 4D-VLA, a novel approach that effectively integrates 4D information into the input to mitigate these sources of chaos. Our model introduces depth and temporal information into visual features with sequential RGB-D inputs, aligning the coordinate systems of the robot and the scene. This alignment endows the model with strong spatiotemporal reasoning capabilities while minimizing training overhead. Additionally, we introduce memory bank sampling, a frame sampling strategy designed to extract informative frames from historical images, further improving effectiveness and efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate that our pretraining method and architectural components substantially enhance model performance. In both simulated and real-world experiments, our model achieves a significant increase in success rate over OpenVLA. To further assess spatial perception and generalization to novel views, we introduce MV-Bench, a multi-view simulation benchmark. Our model consistently outperforms existing methods, demonstrating stronger spatial understanding and adaptability.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Reconstructing dynamic 3D scenes from 2D images and generating diverse views over time is challenging due to scene complexity and temporal dynamics. Despite advancements in neural implicit models, limitations persist: (i) Inadequate Scene Structure: Existing methods struggle to reveal the spatial and temporal structure of dynamic scenes from directly learning the complex 6D plenoptic function. (ii) Scaling Deformation Modeling: Explicitly modeling scene element deformation becomes impractical for complex dynamics. To address these issues, we consider the spacetime as an entirety and propose to approximate the underlying spatio-temporal 4D volume of a dynamic scene by optimizing a collection of 4D primitives, with explicit geometry and appearance modeling. Learning to optimize the 4D primitives enables us to synthesize novel views at any desired time with our tailored rendering routine. Our model is conceptually simple, consisting of a 4D Gaussian parameterized by anisotropic ellipses that can rotate arbitrarily in space and time, as well as view-dependent and time-evolved appearance represented by the coefficient of 4D spherindrical harmonics. This approach offers simplicity, flexibility for variable-length video and end-to-end training, and efficient real-time rendering, making it suitable for capturing complex dynamic scene motions. Experiments across various benchmarks, including monocular and multi-view scenarios, demonstrate our 4DGS model's superior visual quality and efficiency.

Urban traffic flow is governed by the complex, nonlinear interaction between land use configuration and spatiotemporally heterogeneous mobility demand. Conventional global regression and time-series models cannot simultaneously capture these multi-scale dynamics across multiple travel modes. This study proposes a GeoAI Hybrid analytical framework that sequentially integrates Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), Random Forest (RF), and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (ST-GCN) to model the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of traffic flow patterns and their interaction with land use across three mobility modes: motor vehicle, public transit, and active transport. Applying the framework to an empirically calibrated dataset of 350 traffic analysis zones across six cities spanning two contrasting urban morphologies, four key findings emerge: (i) the GeoAI Hybrid achieves a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.119 and an R^2 of 0.891, outperforming all benchmarks by 23-62%; (ii) SHAP analysis identifies land use mix as the strongest predictor for motor vehicle flows and transit stop density as the strongest predictor for public transit; (iii) DBSCAN clustering identifies five functionally distinct urban traffic typologies with a silhouette score of 0.71, and GeoAI Hybrid residuals exhibit Moran's I=0.218 (p<0.001), a 72% reduction relative to OLS baselines; and (iv) cross-city transfer experiments reveal moderate within-cluster transferability (R^2>=0.78) and limited cross-cluster generalisability, underscoring the primacy of urban morphological context. The framework offers planners and transportation engineers an interpretable, scalable toolkit for evidence-based multimodal mobility management and land use policy design.

We propose a new class of parameterizations for spatio-temporal point processes which leverage Neural ODEs as a computational method and enable flexible, high-fidelity models of discrete events that are localized in continuous time and space. Central to our approach is a combination of continuous-time neural networks with two novel neural architectures, i.e., Jump and Attentive Continuous-time Normalizing Flows. This approach allows us to learn complex distributions for both the spatial and temporal domain and to condition non-trivially on the observed event history. We validate our models on data sets from a wide variety of contexts such as seismology, epidemiology, urban mobility, and neuroscience.

We introduce Brain-JEPA, a brain dynamics foundation model with the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA). This pioneering model achieves state-of-the-art performance in demographic prediction, disease diagnosis/prognosis, and trait prediction through fine-tuning. Furthermore, it excels in off-the-shelf evaluations (e.g., linear probing) and demonstrates superior generalizability across different ethnic groups, surpassing the previous large model for brain activity significantly. Brain-JEPA incorporates two innovative techniques: Brain Gradient Positioning and Spatiotemporal Masking. Brain Gradient Positioning introduces a functional coordinate system for brain functional parcellation, enhancing the positional encoding of different Regions of Interest (ROIs). Spatiotemporal Masking, tailored to the unique characteristics of fMRI data, addresses the challenge of heterogeneous time-series patches. These methodologies enhance model performance and advance our understanding of the neural circuits underlying cognition. Overall, Brain-JEPA is paving the way to address pivotal questions of building brain functional coordinate system and masking brain activity at the AI-neuroscience interface, and setting a potentially new paradigm in brain activity analysis through downstream adaptation.

Spatial reasoning (SR), the ability to infer 3D spatial information from 2D inputs, is essential for real-world applications such as embodied AI and autonomous driving. However, existing research primarily focuses on indoor environments and typically relies on multi-view observations, which limits their generalizability to outdoor scenarios and constrains their applicability to monocular images, the most common real-world setting. In this work, we propose MonoSR, a large-scale monocular spatial reasoning dataset that spans diverse scenarios including indoor, outdoor, and object-centric settings, and supports multiple question types. MonoSR provides a path toward open-world monocular spatial reasoning. Beyond introducing the dataset, we evaluate advanced vision-language models to reveal their limitations on this challenging task. We further analyze whether auxiliary information is crucial for monocular spatial reasoning and offer practical guidance for designing future models. These contributions collectively establish a foundation for advancing monocular spatial reasoning in real-world, open-world environments.

The causalimages R package enables causal inference with image and image sequence data, providing new tools for integrating novel data sources like satellite and bio-medical imagery into the study of cause and effect. One set of functions enables image-based causal inference analyses. For example, one key function decomposes treatment effect heterogeneity by images using an interpretable Bayesian framework. This allows for determining which types of images or image sequences are most responsive to interventions. A second modeling function allows researchers to control for confounding using images. The package also allows investigators to produce embeddings that serve as vector summaries of the image or video content. Finally, infrastructural functions are also provided, such as tools for writing large-scale image and image sequence data as sequentialized byte strings for more rapid image analysis. causalimages therefore opens new capabilities for causal inference in R, letting researchers use informative imagery in substantive analyses in a fast and accessible manner.

Environment understanding in egocentric videos is an important step for applications like robotics, augmented reality and assistive technologies. These videos are characterized by dynamic interactions and a strong dependence on the wearer engagement with the environment. Traditional approaches often focus on isolated clips or fail to integrate rich semantic and geometric information, limiting scene comprehension. We introduce Dynamic Image-Video Feature Fields (DIV FF), a framework that decomposes the egocentric scene into persistent, dynamic, and actor based components while integrating both image and video language features. Our model enables detailed segmentation, captures affordances, understands the surroundings and maintains consistent understanding over time. DIV-FF outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly in dynamically evolving scenarios, demonstrating its potential to advance long term, spatio temporal scene understanding.

Spatio-temporal forecasting is essential for real-world applications such as traffic management and urban computing. Although recent methods have shown improved accuracy, they often fail to account for dynamic deviations between current inputs and historical patterns. These deviations contain critical signals that can significantly affect model performance. To fill this gap, we propose ST-SSDL, a Spatio-Temporal time series forecasting framework that incorporates a Self-Supervised Deviation Learning scheme to capture and utilize such deviations. ST-SSDL anchors each input to its historical average and discretizes the latent space using learnable prototypes that represent typical spatio-temporal patterns. Two auxiliary objectives are proposed to refine this structure: a contrastive loss that enhances inter-prototype discriminability and a deviation loss that regularizes the distance consistency between input representations and corresponding prototypes to quantify deviation. Optimized jointly with the forecasting objective, these components guide the model to organize its hidden space and improve generalization across diverse input conditions. Experiments on six benchmark datasets show that ST-SSDL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple metrics. Visualizations further demonstrate its ability to adaptively respond to varying levels of deviation in complex spatio-temporal scenarios. Our code and datasets are available at https://github.com/Jimmy-7664/ST-SSDL.

We present InSpatio-WorldFM, an open-source real-time frame model for spatial intelligence. Unlike video-based world models that rely on sequential frame generation and incur substantial latency due to window-level processing, InSpatio-WorldFM adopts a frame-based paradigm that generates each frame independently, enabling low-latency real-time spatial inference. By enforcing multi-view spatial consistency through explicit 3D anchors and implicit spatial memory, the model preserves global scene geometry while maintaining fine-grained visual details across viewpoint changes. We further introduce a progressive three-stage training pipeline that transforms a pretrained image diffusion model into a controllable frame model and finally into a real-time generator through few-step distillation. Experimental results show that InSpatio-WorldFM achieves strong multi-view consistency while supporting interactive exploration on consumer-grade GPUs, providing an efficient alternative to traditional video-based world models for real-time world simulation.

Cognitive science suggests that spatial ability develops progressively-from perception to reasoning and interaction. Yet in multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), this hierarchy remains poorly understood, as most studies focus on a narrow set of tasks. We introduce SpatialTree, a cognitive-science-inspired hierarchy that organizes spatial abilities into four levels: low-level perception (L1), mental mapping (L2), simulation (L3), and agentic competence (L4). Based on this taxonomy, we construct the first capability-centric hierarchical benchmark, thoroughly evaluating mainstream MLLMs across 27 sub-abilities. The evaluation results reveal a clear structure: L1 skills are largely orthogonal, whereas higher-level skills are strongly correlated, indicating increasing interdependency. Through targeted supervised fine-tuning, we uncover a surprising transfer dynamic-negative transfer within L1, but strong cross-level transfer from low- to high-level abilities with notable synergy. Finally, we explore how to improve the entire hierarchy. We find that naive RL that encourages extensive "thinking" is unreliable: it helps complex reasoning but hurts intuitive perception. We propose a simple auto-think strategy that suppresses unnecessary deliberation, enabling RL to consistently improve performance across all levels. By building SpatialTree, we provide a proof-of-concept framework for understanding and systematically scaling spatial abilities in MLLMs.

In real-world scenarios, the application of reinforcement learning is significantly challenged by complex non-stationarity. Most existing methods attempt to model changes in the environment explicitly, often requiring impractical prior knowledge of environments. In this paper, we propose a new perspective, positing that non-stationarity can propagate and accumulate through complex causal relationships during state transitions, thereby compounding its sophistication and affecting policy learning. We believe that this challenge can be more effectively addressed by implicitly tracing the causal origin of non-stationarity. To this end, we introduce the Causal-Origin REPresentation (COREP) algorithm. COREP primarily employs a guided updating mechanism to learn a stable graph representation for the state, termed as causal-origin representation. By leveraging this representation, the learned policy exhibits impressive resilience to non-stationarity. We supplement our approach with a theoretical analysis grounded in the causal interpretation for non-stationary reinforcement learning, advocating for the validity of the causal-origin representation. Experimental results further demonstrate the superior performance of COREP over existing methods in tackling non-stationarity problems.

Earth observation data such as satellite imagery can, when combined with machine learning, have profound impacts on our understanding of the geography of poverty through the prediction of living conditions, especially where government-derived economic indicators are either unavailable or potentially untrustworthy. Recent work has progressed in using EO data not only to predict spatial economic outcomes, but also to explore cause and effect, an understanding which is critical for downstream policy analysis. In this review, we first document the growth of interest in EO-ML analyses in the causal space. We then trace the relationship between spatial statistics and EO-ML methods before discussing the four ways in which EO data has been used in causal ML pipelines -- (1.) poverty outcome imputation for downstream causal analysis, (2.) EO image deconfounding, (3.) EO-based treatment effect heterogeneity, and (4.) EO-based transportability analysis. We conclude by providing a workflow for how researchers can incorporate EO data in causal ML analysis going forward.

Existing 3D scene generation methods often struggle to model the complex logical dependencies and physical constraints between objects, limiting their ability to adapt to dynamic and realistic environments. We propose CausalStruct, a novel framework that embeds causal reasoning into 3D scene generation. Utilizing large language models (LLMs), We construct causal graphs where nodes represent objects and attributes, while edges encode causal dependencies and physical constraints. CausalStruct iteratively refines the scene layout by enforcing causal order to determine the placement order of objects and applies causal intervention to adjust the spatial configuration according to physics-driven constraints, ensuring consistency with textual descriptions and real-world dynamics. The refined scene causal graph informs subsequent optimization steps, employing a Proportional-Integral-Derivative(PID) controller to iteratively tune object scales and positions. Our method uses text or images to guide object placement and layout in 3D scenes, with 3D Gaussian Splatting and Score Distillation Sampling improving shape accuracy and rendering stability. Extensive experiments show that CausalStruct generates 3D scenes with enhanced logical coherence, realistic spatial interactions, and robust adaptability.

Humans and animals have a rich and flexible understanding of the physical world, which enables them to infer the underlying dynamical trajectories of objects and events, plausible future states, and use that to plan and anticipate the consequences of actions. However, the neural mechanisms underlying these computations are unclear. We combine a goal-driven modeling approach with dense neurophysiological data and high-throughput human behavioral readouts to directly impinge on this question. Specifically, we construct and evaluate several classes of sensory-cognitive networks to predict the future state of rich, ethologically-relevant environments, ranging from self-supervised end-to-end models with pixel-wise or object-centric objectives, to models that future predict in the latent space of purely static image-based or dynamic video-based pretrained foundation models. We find strong differentiation across these model classes in their ability to predict neural and behavioral data both within and across diverse environments. In particular, we find that neural responses are currently best predicted by models trained to predict the future state of their environment in the latent space of pretrained foundation models optimized for dynamic scenes in a self-supervised manner. Notably, models that future predict in the latent space of video foundation models that are optimized to support a diverse range of sensorimotor tasks, reasonably match both human behavioral error patterns and neural dynamics across all environmental scenarios that we were able to test. Overall, these findings suggest that the neural mechanisms and behaviors of primate mental simulation are thus far most consistent with being optimized to future predict on dynamic, reusable visual representations that are useful for embodied AI more generally.

Generative models have shown great promise in generating 3D geometric systems, which is a fundamental problem in many natural science domains such as molecule and protein design. However, existing approaches only operate on static structures, neglecting the fact that physical systems are always dynamic in nature. In this work, we propose geometric trajectory diffusion models (GeoTDM), the first diffusion model for modeling the temporal distribution of 3D geometric trajectories. Modeling such distribution is challenging as it requires capturing both the complex spatial interactions with physical symmetries and temporal correspondence encapsulated in the dynamics. We theoretically justify that diffusion models with equivariant temporal kernels can lead to density with desired symmetry, and develop a novel transition kernel leveraging SE(3)-equivariant spatial convolution and temporal attention. Furthermore, to induce an expressive trajectory distribution for conditional generation, we introduce a generalized learnable geometric prior into the forward diffusion process to enhance temporal conditioning. We conduct extensive experiments on both unconditional and conditional generation in various scenarios, including physical simulation, molecular dynamics, and pedestrian motion. Empirical results on a wide suite of metrics demonstrate that GeoTDM can generate realistic geometric trajectories with significantly higher quality.

Earth observation is a fundamental tool for monitoring the evolution of land use in specific areas of interest. Observing and precisely defining change, in this context, requires both time-series data and pixel-wise segmentations. To that end, we propose the DynamicEarthNet dataset that consists of daily, multi-spectral satellite observations of 75 selected areas of interest distributed over the globe with imagery from Planet Labs. These observations are paired with pixel-wise monthly semantic segmentation labels of 7 land use and land cover (LULC) classes. DynamicEarthNet is the first dataset that provides this unique combination of daily measurements and high-quality labels. In our experiments, we compare several established baselines that either utilize the daily observations as additional training data (semi-supervised learning) or multiple observations at once (spatio-temporal learning) as a point of reference for future research. Finally, we propose a new evaluation metric SCS that addresses the specific challenges associated with time-series semantic change segmentation. The data is available at: https://mediatum.ub.tum.de/1650201.

We tackle the challenge of large-scale network intervention for guiding excitatory point processes, such as infectious disease spread or traffic congestion control. Our model-based reinforcement learning utilizes neural ODEs to capture how the networked excitatory point processes will evolve subject to the time-varying changes in network topology. Our approach incorporates Gradient-Descent based Model Predictive Control (GD-MPC), offering policy flexibility to accommodate prior knowledge and constraints. To address the intricacies of planning and overcome the high dimensionality inherent to such decision-making problems, we design an Amortize Network Interventions (ANI) framework, allowing for the pooling of optimal policies from history and other contexts, while ensuring a permutation equivalent property. This property enables efficient knowledge transfer and sharing across diverse contexts. Our approach has broad applications, from curbing infectious disease spread to reducing carbon emissions through traffic light optimization, and thus has the potential to address critical societal and environmental challenges.

Spatial reasoning ability is crucial for Vision Language Models (VLMs) to support real-world applications in diverse domains including robotics, augmented reality, and autonomous navigation. Unfortunately, existing benchmarks are inadequate in assessing spatial reasoning ability, especially the intrinsic-dynamic spatial reasoning which is a fundamental aspect of human spatial cognition. In this paper, we propose a unified benchmark, Spatial-DISE, based on a cognitively grounded taxonomy that categorizes tasks into four fundamental quadrants: Intrinsic-Static, Intrinsic-Dynamic, Extrinsic-Static, and Extrinsic-Dynamic spatial reasoning. Moreover, to address the issue of data scarcity, we develop a scalable and automated pipeline to generate diverse and verifiable spatial reasoning questions, resulting in a new Spatial-DISE dataset that includes Spatial-DISE Bench (559 evaluation VQA pairs) and Spatial-DISE-12K (12K+ training VQA pairs). Our comprehensive evaluation across 28 state-of-the-art VLMs reveals that, current VLMs have a large and consistent gap to human competence, especially on multi-step multi-view spatial reasoning. Spatial-DISE offers a robust framework, valuable dataset, and clear direction for future research toward human-like spatial intelligence. Benchmark, dataset, and code will be publicly released.

The rapid evolution of video generation has enabled models to simulate complex physical dynamics and long-horizon causalities, positioning them as potential world simulators. However, a critical gap still remains between the theoretical capacity for world simulation and the heavy computational costs of spatiotemporal modeling. To address this, we comprehensively and systematically review video generation frameworks and techniques that consider efficiency as a crucial requirement for practical world modeling. We introduce a novel taxonomy in three dimensions: efficient modeling paradigms, efficient network architectures, and efficient inference algorithms. We further show that bridging this efficiency gap directly empowers interactive applications such as autonomous driving, embodied AI, and game simulation. Finally, we identify emerging research frontiers in efficient video-based world modeling, arguing that efficiency is a fundamental prerequisite for evolving video generators into general-purpose, real-time, and robust world simulators.

Significant progress has been made in spatial intelligence, spanning both spatial reconstruction and world exploration. However, the scalability and real-world fidelity of current models remain severely constrained by the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality training data. While several datasets provide camera pose information, they are typically limited in scale, diversity, and annotation richness, particularly for real-world dynamic scenes with ground-truth camera motion. To this end, we collect SpatialVID, a dataset consists of a large corpus of in-the-wild videos with diverse scenes, camera movements and dense 3D annotations such as per-frame camera poses, depth, and motion instructions. Specifically, we collect more than 21,000 hours of raw video, and process them into 2.7 million clips through a hierarchical filtering pipeline, totaling 7,089 hours of dynamic content. A subsequent annotation pipeline enriches these clips with detailed spatial and semantic information, including camera poses, depth maps, dynamic masks, structured captions, and serialized motion instructions. Analysis of SpatialVID's data statistics reveals a richness and diversity that directly foster improved model generalization and performance, establishing it as a key asset for the video and 3D vision research community.

User profiling and region analysis are two tasks of significant commercial value. However, in practical applications, modeling different features typically involves four main steps: data preparation, data processing, model establishment, evaluation, and optimization. This process is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Repeating this workflow for each feature results in abundant development time for tasks and a reduced overall volume of task development. Indeed, human mobility data contains a wealth of information. Several successful cases suggest that conducting in-depth analysis of population movement data could potentially yield meaningful profiles about users and areas. Nonetheless, most related works have not thoroughly utilized the semantic information within human mobility data and trained on a fixed number of the regions. To tap into the rich information within population movement, based on the perspective that Regions Are Who walk them, we propose a large spatiotemporal model based on trajectories (RAW). It possesses the following characteristics: 1) Tailored for trajectory data, introducing a GPT-like structure with a parameter count of up to 1B; 2) Introducing a spatiotemporal fine-tuning module, interpreting trajectories as collection of users to derive arbitrary region embedding. This framework allows rapid task development based on the large spatiotemporal model. We conducted extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of our proposed large spatiotemporal model. It's evident that our proposed method, relying solely on human mobility data without additional features, exhibits a certain level of relevance in user profiling and region analysis. Moreover, our model showcases promising predictive capabilities in trajectory generation tasks based on the current state, offering the potential for further innovative work utilizing this large spatiotemporal model.

Novel view synthesis (NVS) boosts immersive experiences in computer vision and graphics. Existing techniques, though progressed, rely on dense multi-view observations, restricting their application. This work takes on the challenge of reconstructing photorealistic 3D scenes from sparse or single-view inputs. We introduce SpatialCrafter, a framework that leverages the rich knowledge in video diffusion models to generate plausible additional observations, thereby alleviating reconstruction ambiguity. Through a trainable camera encoder and an epipolar attention mechanism for explicit geometric constraints, we achieve precise camera control and 3D consistency, further reinforced by a unified scale estimation strategy to handle scale discrepancies across datasets. Furthermore, by integrating monocular depth priors with semantic features in the video latent space, our framework directly regresses 3D Gaussian primitives and efficiently processes long-sequence features using a hybrid network structure. Extensive experiments show our method enhances sparse view reconstruction and restores the realistic appearance of 3D scenes.

Time series reasoning treats time as a first-class axis and incorporates intermediate evidence directly into the answer. This survey defines the problem and organizes the literature by reasoning topology with three families: direct reasoning in one step, linear chain reasoning with explicit intermediates, and branch-structured reasoning that explores, revises, and aggregates. The topology is crossed with the main objectives of the field, including traditional time series analysis, explanation and understanding, causal inference and decision making, and time series generation, while a compact tag set spans these axes and captures decomposition and verification, ensembling, tool use, knowledge access, multimodality, agent loops, and LLM alignment regimes. Methods and systems are reviewed across domains, showing what each topology enables and where it breaks down in faithfulness or robustness, along with curated datasets, benchmarks, and resources that support study and deployment (https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-Series-Reasoning-Survey). Evaluation practices that keep evidence visible and temporally aligned are highlighted, and guidance is distilled on matching topology to uncertainty, grounding with observable artifacts, planning for shift and streaming, and treating cost and latency as design budgets. We emphasize that reasoning structures must balance capacity for grounding and self-correction against computational cost and reproducibility, while future progress will likely depend on benchmarks that tie reasoning quality to utility and on closed-loop testbeds that trade off cost and risk under shift-aware, streaming, and long-horizon settings. Taken together, these directions mark a shift from narrow accuracy toward reliability at scale, enabling systems that not only analyze but also understand, explain, and act on dynamic worlds with traceable evidence and credible outcomes.