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Mar 2

Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. We collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51\%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95\% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95\% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started.

  • 50 authors
·
Oct 6, 2023

Searching for Materials with High Refractive Index and Wide Band Gap: A First-Principles High-Throughput Study

Materials combining both a high refractive index and a wide band gap are of great interest for optoelectronic and sensor applications. However, these two properties are typically described by an inverse correlation with high refractive index appearing in small gap materials and vice-versa. Here, we conduct a first-principles high-throughput study on more than 4000 semiconductors (with a special focus on oxides). Our data confirm the general inverse trend between refractive index and band gap but interesting outliers are also identified. The data are then analyzed through a simple model involving two main descriptors: the average optical gap and the effective frequency. The former can be determined directly from the electronic structure of the compounds, but the latter cannot. This calls for further analysis in order to obtain a predictive model. Nonetheless, it turns out that the negative effect of a large band gap on the refractive index can counterbalanced in two ways: (i) by limiting the difference between the direct band gap and the average optical gap which can be realized by a narrow distribution in energy of the optical transitions and (ii) by increasing the effective frequency which can be achieved through either a high number of transitions from the top of the valence band to the bottom of the conduction or a high average probability for these transitions. Focusing on oxides, we use our data to investigate how the chemistry influences this inverse relationship and rationalize why certain classes of materials would perform better. Our findings can be used to search for new compounds in many optical applications both in the linear and non-linear regime (waveguides, optical modulators, laser, frequency converter, etc.).

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 4, 2018