Pressure is growing in the financial markets for the U.S. to take overt action to stabilize the dollar even though doubts linger that it has fallen far enough to help redress world trade imbalances economists and dealers said. Some experts believe that a half-point increase in the U.S. discount rate preferably in conjunction with rate cuts in Tokyo and Bonn would be enough to discourage sellers. But many fear that more drastic action such as a U.S. issue of yen-denominated Treasury bonds may be needed. Despite official warnings about the dangers of a further dollar decline and concerted central bank intervention the dollar extended its recent sharp depreciation touching a 40-year low of 137.25 yen in Tokyo earlier today after closing here on Friday at 139.30/40. The impact on other financial markets was devastating. In Tokyo the stock market suffered its largest single day decline; in London gold bullion prices rose to four-year highs and in the U.S. long Treasury bond yields surged above 8.80 pct and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 40 points in hectic early trading. The problem now is linkage. This is not just a currency problem. It is affecting all the markets said one senior trader at a major U.S. bank. Up until September of last year international efforts to redress world trade imbalances appeared to working like a dream; the dollar was falling in an orderly manner world interest rates were tumbling and inflation was kept in check. In recent months however this strategy has begun to show signs of severe stress with the U.S. imposition of punitive tariffs on Japan threatening to unravel this spirit of cooperating and condemn the world to a damaging trade war. The markets fear that we have built up a momentum that is really difficult to stop. A U.S. rate hike has become an inevitability one currency dealer said. At this point nothing short of a Fed discount rate increase ideally combined with further discount rate cuts by Japan and Germany would seem capable of stabilizing the dollar said David Jones of Aubrey G. Lanston and Co Inc. Allen Sinai of Shearson Lehman Brothers Inc predicted a 1/4 to 1/2 point U.S. rate increase before May 19 and a rise in U.S. bank prime lending rates to eight pct from 7-3/4 pct in the near future. But many economists feared that any moderate U.S. rate increases which appear unlikely to be matched by rate cuts overseas would be too little too late. They should have done this 10 days ago. It would have done the trick then said one currency analyst. If they do it now it would be seen as a defensive measure not an offensive one. It would show policy weakness not strength added one trader. In addition economists fear that a discount rate rise might place additional strain on a sluggish U.S. economy and tempt embattled debtor nations to retaliate. A U.S. discount rate increase would also fuel the protectionist fires in Washington where the House is expected to pass a protectionist trade bill whatever compromises President Reagan and Prime Minister Nakasone can come up with during their summit later in the week. Politically they cant really do it this week said one currency analyst pointing out that if it failed to stabilize the dollar it would only weaken the U.S. negotiating stance. Even if the U.S. retains the upper hand economists and traders do not hold out high hopes for any major new initiatives from this weeks talks. At best the experts see some sort of accord whereby Japan will agree to stimulate growth and open its domestic markets to outsiders while the U.S. promises to lift its tariffs and support the Group of Seven dollar stabilization agreement. But many fear that this may not be enough to assuage the markets speculative selling fervor which has now raised fears of weak overseas interest at next weeks quarterly U.S. Treasury refunding program. Japanese and European investors have traditionally played an active role in these auctions which are expected to total 28 to 29 billion dlrs. Consequently thoughts are turning to the possibility that President Reagan may try to remove foreign investors worries about currency risk by financing part of the U.S. budget deficit in yen or mark bonds rather than dollars. While similar action by former President Carter helped to stabilize the dollar in 1978 the White House is clearly reluctant to take such a step economists said. This hesitance was amply shown last Friday when U.S. Treasury Secretary James Baker said there might well be some who would view (yen-denominated bonds) as a lack of confidence by the U.S. in its own currency. Baker added therefore we dont think its an appropriate thing to do. A foreign exchange analyst at a major Japanese bank here shared Bakers doubts. Dollar defending measures are very unlikely. They will confirm the dollars weak undertone and lead to further speculative dollar selling he said. Thus it may be less destabilizing for the authorities to stop trying to fight the markets bearish sentiment. In a recent lengthy report economists at Morgan Guaranty Trust Co concluded the dollar should be left free to trade at whatever level market forces produce.
PRESSURE GROWS FOR U.S. ACTION TO AID DOLLAR