Sharp cuts this year in U.S. planted acreage may not make a big dent in the U.S. grain stockpile but will at least keep grain surpluses from increasing Agriculture Department and industry commodity analysts said. The scenario is turning around on stocks. The whole supply/demand picture could finally be getting more in balance a USDA analyst said. The USDA prospective plantings report this week indicated that U.S. farmers will idle 52 to 55 mln acres in annual acreage reduction programs this year. An additional 20 mln acres have been enrolled in the conservation reserve program bringing total idled acreage in the U.S. to 72-75 mln acres almost a third of the nations total 235 mln acre crop base. Production of wheat corn and soybeans in 1986/87 will probably closely match annual usage limiting any buildup in stocks analysts said. Its a substantially different story from last year when we added 1.5 billion bushels of corn to the stockpile Vernon McMinimy director of commodity research for Staley Co. said. Interviewed at an agribusiness education conference here McMinimy said that 67.6 mln planted acres of corn will likely translate into 60 mln harvested acres and with normal yields final production of 6.9 to 7.0 billion bushels. McMinimy estimated that total U.S. corn disappearance in 1986/87 could end up at 7.1 billion bushels possibly resulting in a 200-million bushel reduction in the current corn stockpile of 5.45 billion bushels. To say this represents a turn-around is wrong but were at least in a holding pattern George Hoffman director of commodity analysis for Pillsbury said. Hoffman said wheat stocks could rise slightly by the end of 1986/87 to 1.9 billion bushels due to significantly less domestic feed use for wheat because of lower corn prices. USDA analysts however project slightly higher usage and said wheat stocks will either decrease slightly or at least not increase. With yearly use at around two billion bushels next years projected crop could be used up an analyst said. We wont be adding to stocks. Stocks are at a record now so if we can begin to touch them even minutely through acreage reductions that would be an improvement an Agriculture Department wheat analyst said. Soybean planted acreage at 56.9 mln acres would be the smallest planted soybean acreage since 1976 and could lower final production by 150 mln bushels and ending stocks by 50 to 100 mln bushels analysts said. As more marginal erodable acreage is enrolled in the conservation reserve program annual acreage reduction programs will be more effective because they will force more high producing land out of production a USDA analyst said. We can now maybe see the light at the end of a very long tunnel the analyst said.
U.S. ACREAGE CUTS SEEN LIMITING STOCK BUILD