question: What has caused the potential future decrease in Social Security Millennials are likely to receive? can it be built back up to reflect current day payout?
comment: The main factor is that due to advances in medical care, people are living longer than originally planned for. Another issue with it is that a good portion of the money goes into a "trust" fund of which the US government pays interest. That money is used for other programs. The one thing that the US government is good at is spending money, so the money is being spent faster than it is being taken in. Between people living longer, and pulling benefits longer, and the money being allocated to programs outside of social security, the program is running at a deficit.
passages: In each year since 1982, OASDI tax receipts, interest payments and other income have exceeded benefit payments and other expenditures, for example by more than $150 billion in 2004. As the "baby boomers" move out of the work force and into retirement, however, expenses will come to exceed tax receipts and then, after several more years, will exceed all OASDI trust income, including interest. At that point the system will begin drawing on its trust fund Treasury Notes, and will continue to pay benefits at the current levels until the Trust Fund is exhausted. In 2013, the OASDI retirement insurance fund collected $731.1 billion and spent $645.5 billion; the disability program (DI) collected $109.1 billion and spent $140.3 billion; Medicare (HI) collected $243.0 and spent $266.8 billion and Supplementary Medical Insurance, SMI, collected $293.9 billion and spent $307.4 billion. In 2013 all Social Security programs except the retirement trust fund (OASDI) spent more than they brought in and relied on significant withdrawals from their respective trust funds to pay their bills. The retirement (OASDI) trust fund of $2,541 billion is expected to be emptied by 2033 by one estimate as new retirees become eligible to join. The disability (DI) trust fund's $153.9 billion will be exhausted by 2018; the Medicare (HI) trust fund of $244.2 billion will be exhausted by 2023 and the Supplemental Medical Insurance (SMI) trust fund will be exhausted by 2020 if the present rate of withdrawals continues—even sooner if they increase. The total "Social Security" expenditures in 2013 were $1,360 billion dollars, which was 8.4% of the $16,200 billion GNP (2013) and 37.0% of the federal expenditures of $3,684 billion (including a $971.0 billion deficit). All other parts of the Social Security program: medicare (HI), disability (DI) and Supplemental Medical (SMI) trust funds are already drawing down their trust funds and are projected to go into deficit in about 2020 if the present rate of withdrawals continue. As the trust funds are exhausted either benefits will have to be cut, fraud minimized or taxes increased. According to the Center for Economic and Policy Research, upward redistribution of income is responsible for about 43% of the projected Social Security shortfall over the next 75 years.
   The Social Security public trustees including Charles Blahous warned in May 2013 that the "window for effective action" to take place was "rapidly closing", with less favorable options available to rectify the problems as time passes.
   BULLET::::- Social Security is funded by a dedicated payroll tax of 12.4%. This means that Social Security will be paid at least to the extent of payroll tax collections. Program payroll tax collections were roughly equal to payouts in 2010 and are estimated to fall to about 75% of payouts by the mid-2030s and continue around that level through the early 2080s. Claims that the program is "bankrupt" or "going bankrupt" can be evaluated in this context.
   Reform proposals continue to circulate with some urgency, due to a long-term funding challenge faced by the program as the ratio of workers to beneficiaries falls, driven by the aging of the baby-boom generation, expected continuing low birth rate, and increasing life expectancy. Program payouts began exceeding cash program revenues (i.e., revenue excluding interest) in 2011; this shortfall is expected to continue indefinitely under current law.
   The 2011 annual report by the program's Board of Trustees noted the following: in 2010, 54 million people were receiving Social Security benefits, while 157 million people were paying into the fund; of those receiving benefits, 44 million were receiving retirement benefits and 10 million disability benefits. In 2011, there will be 56 million beneficiaries and 158 million workers paying in. In 2010, total income was $781.1 billion and expenditures were $712.5 billion, which meant a total net increase in assets of $68.6 billion. Assets in 2010 were $2.6 trillion, an amount that is expected to be adequate to cover the next 10 years. In 2023, total income and interest earned on assets are projected to no longer cover expenditures for Social Security, as demographic shifts burden the system. By 2035, the ratio of potential retirees to working age persons will be 37 percent—there will be less than three potential income earners for every retiree in the population. At this rate the Social Security Trust Fund would be exhausted by 2036.
   In 2005, this exhaustion of the OASDI Trust Fund was projected to occur in 2041 by the Social Security Administration or by 2052 by the Congressional Budget Office, CBO. Thereafter, however, the projection for the exhaustion date of this event was moved up slightly after the recession worsened the U.S. economy's financial picture. The 2011 OASDI Trustees Report stated:
   However, the impact is much greater for the future retiree (in 2045) than for the current retiree (2005). The male earning $95,000 per year and retiring in 2045 is estimated to lose over $200,000 by participating in the Social Security system.
   , under current law, the Congressional Budget Office reported that the "Disability Insurance trust fund will be exhausted in fiscal year 2017 and the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will be exhausted in 2033". Costs of Social Security have already started to exceed income since 2018. This means the trust funds have already begun to be empty and will be fully depleted in the near future. As of 2018, the projections made by the Social Security Administration estimates that Social Security program as a whole will deplete all reserves by the year 2034.
   Various institutions have analyzed different reform alternatives, including the CBO, "U.S. News & World Report", the AARP, and the Urban Institute.
  
  Section::::Studies of Social Security policy alternatives.:CBO studies.
  
  The CBO reported in July 2010 the effects of a series of policy options on the "actuarial balance" shortfall, which over the 75 year horizon is approximately 0.6% of GDP. Social Security is facing a long-run shortfall of approximately 1% GDP per year or $155 billion/year in 2012 dollars. Key reform proposals include:
   In 2017, Social Security expenditures totaled $806.7 billion for OASDI and $145.8 billion for DI. Income derived from Social Security is currently estimated to have reduced the poverty rate for Americans age 65 or older from about 40% to below 10%. In 2018, the trustees of the Social Security Trust Fund reported that the program will become financially insolvent in the year 2034 unless corrective action is enacted by Congress.
  
  Section::::History.
  
  Social Security Timeline
  
  BULLET::::- 1935 The 37-page Social Security Act signed August 14 by President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Retirement benefits only to worker, welfare benefits started
   However, even right-leaning politicians have been inconsistent with the language they use when referencing Social Security. For example, Bush has referred to the system going "broke" in 2042. That date arises from the anticipated depletion of the Trust Fund, so Bush's language "seem[s] to suggest that there's "something" there that goes away in 2042." Specifically, in 2042 and for many decades thereafter, the Social Security system can continue to pay benefits, but benefit payments will be constrained by the revenue base from the 12.4% FICA (Social Security payroll) tax on wages. According to the Social Security trustees, continuing payroll tax revenues at the rate of 12.4% will enable Social Security to pay about 74% of promised benefits during the 2040s, with this ratio falling to about 70% by the end of the forecast period in 2080.
   BULLET::::- Average in more working years. Social Security benefits are now based on an average of a worker's 35 highest paid salaries with zeros averaged in if there are fewer than 35 years of covered wages. The averaging period could be increased to 38 or 40 years, which could potentially reduce the deficit by 10 to 20%, respectively.
   Increased spending for Social Security will occur at the same time as increases in Medicare, as a result of the aging of the baby boomers. One projection illustrates the relationship between the two programs:
  
  From 2004 to 2030, the combined spending on Social Security and Medicare is expected to rise from 8% of national income (gross domestic product) to 13%. Two-thirds of the increase occurs in Medicare.
  
  Section::::Current operation.:Demographic and revenue projections.:Ways to eliminate the projected shortfall.
  
  Social Security is predicted to start running out of having enough money to pay all prospective retirees at today's benefit payouts by 2034.
   Social Security spending will increase sharply over the next decades, largely due to the retirement of the baby boom generation. The number of program recipients is expected to increase from 44 million in 2010 to 73 million in 2030. Program spending is projected to rise from 4.8% of GDP in 2010 to 5.9% of GDP by 2030, where it will stabilize.
   The Social Security Advisory Board has on three occasions since 1999 appointed a Technical Advisory Panel to review the methods and assumptions used in the annual projections for the Social Security trust funds. The most recent report of the Technical Advisory Panel, released in June 2008 with a copyright date of October 2007, includes a number of recommendations for improving the Social Security projections.
   The number of program recipients was 60.9 million in 2016, up approximately 0.9 million from 2015. The number receiving retirement benefits rose by 1.2 million, while the number receiving survivors and disability benefits fell by a total of approximately 0.3 million.
  
  Section::::Background on funding challenges.:Social Security Trust Fund.
   BULLET::::- Non-interest income fell below program costs in 2010 for the first time since 1983. Program costs are projected to exceed non-interest income throughout the remainder of the 75-year period.
  
  BULLET::::- The asset reserves of the combined OASDI Trust Funds increased by $25 billion in 2014 to a total of $2.79 trillion.
  
  BULLET::::- During 2014, an estimated 166 million people had earnings covered by Social Security and paid payroll taxes.
  
  BULLET::::- Social Security paid benefits of $848 billion in calendar year 2014. There were about 59 million beneficiaries at the end of the calendar year.
   BULLET::::- The annual cost of Social Security benefits represented 4.0% of GDP in 2000 and 5.0% GDP in 2015. This is projected to increase gradually to 6.4% of GDP in 2035 and then decline to about 6.1% of GDP by 2055 and remain at about that level through 2086.
   , under current law, the Social Security Trustees reported that "the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2052 and the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2034".
  
  In December 2014, the SSDI program insured approximately 10.9 million beneficiaries including disabled workers and their spouses and children.
  
  Section::::Usage.:Treating physician rule.
   The Social Security program faces a 75-year average annual shortfall of 1.4% GDP, which is about $280 billion in 2018 dollars. The CBO publishes a report every few years ("Social Security Policy Options") which estimates various ways to close that funding gap. Without changes to the law, benefits will be cut by about 25% in 2034, as outlays to beneficiaries will be limited to the payroll tax collections. Until that time, the Social Security Trust Fund provides the legal authority to force the federal government to borrow to cover the shortfall, but the Trust Fund is reduced to the extent this occurs. 
   CBO provided estimates regarding various reform alternatives in a July 2014 letter to Senator Orrin Hatch. For example, CBO wrote: "To bring the OASDI [Social Security] program as a whole into actuarial balance through 2087 with the taxable maximum set according to current law [$118,500 in 2015], the combined OASDI payroll tax rate could be permanently increased by about 3.5 percentage points...Under that option, the combined OASDI payroll tax rate would rise from 12.4 percent to 15.9 percent in 2015. Revenues credited to the Social Security trust funds in 2015 would increase by about 28 percent." This would raise taxes for a worker earning $50,000 by about $900 per year.
   At the World Social Security Forum held in 2016 in Panama the then ISSA Secretary General Hans-Horst Konkolewsky underscored that global trends, including demographic changes and the impact of the digital economy are transforming the context in which social security operates. While there is an unprecedented global political commitment to provide all people with access to social protection, and recognition that social security is a social and economic investment, the future sustainability and extension of social security will require significant innovation.
  
  Section::::Aims.
   One way to measure mandatory program risks is in terms of unfunded liabilities, the amount that would have to be set aside today such that principal and interest would cover program shortfalls (spending over tax revenue dedicated to the program). These are measured over a 75-year period and infinite horizon by the program's Trustees:
   BULLET::::- The present value of unfunded obligations under Social Security was approximately $11.4 trillion over a 75-year forecast period (2016-2090). In other words, that amount would have to be set aside in 2016 so that the principal and interest would cover the shortfall for 75 years. The estimated annual shortfall averages 2.49% of the payroll tax base or 0.9% of gross domestic product (a measure of the size of the economy). Measured over the infinite horizon, these figures are 4.0% and 1.4%, respectively.
   The CBO projected in 2010 that an increase in payroll taxes ranging from 1.6–2.1% of the payroll tax base, equivalent to 0.6%-0.8% of GDP, would be necessary to put the Social Security program in fiscal balance for the next 75 years. In other words, raising the payroll tax rate to about 14.4% during 2009 (from the current 12.4%) or cutting benefits by 13.3% would address the program's budgetary concerns indefinitely; these amounts increase to around 16% and 24% if no changes are made until 2037. Projections of Social Security's solvency are sensitive to assumptions about rates of economic growth and demographic changes.
  