Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Comparing and Forecasting Performances in Different Events of Athletics
  Using a Probabilistic Model   Though athletics statistics are abundant, it is a difficult task to
quantitatively compare performances from different events of track, field, and
road running in a meaningful way. There are several commonly-used methods, but
each has its limitations. Some methods, for example, are valid only for running
events, or are unable to compare men's performances to women's, while others
are based largely on world records and are thus unsuitable for comparing world
records to one other. The most versatile and widely-used statistic is a set of
scoring tables compiled by the IAAF, which are updated and published every few
years. Unfortunately, these methods are not fully disclosed. In this paper, we
propose a straight-forward, objective, model-based algorithm for assigning
scores to athletic performances for the express purpose of comparing marks
between different events. Specifically, the main score we propose is based on
the expected number of athletes who perform better than a given mark within a
calendar year. Computing this naturally interpretable statistic requires only a
list of the top performances in each event and is not overly dependent on a
small number of marks, such as the world records. We found that this statistic
could predict the quality of future performances better than the IAAF scoring
tables, and is thus better suited for comparing performances from different
events. In addition, the probabilistic model used to generate the performance
scores allows for multiple interpretations which can be adapted for various
purposes, such as calculating the expected top mark in a given event or
calculating the probability of a world record being broken within a certain
time period. In this paper, we give the details of the model and the scores, a
comparison with the IAAF scoring tables, and...

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The categories of this paper are: eess
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The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
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The categories of this paper are: q-alg
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The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
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The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
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The categories of this paper are: nlin
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The categories of this paper are: hep-th
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The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
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The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
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The categories of this paper are: econ
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The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
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The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
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The categories of this paper are: q-fin
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The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
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The categories of this paper are: physics
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The categories of this paper are: nucl-th