Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Random Matrix Theory and the Failure of Macroeconomic Forecasts   By scientific standards, the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts has
been poor, and shows no sign of improving over time. We form a delay matrix of
time-series data on the overall rate of growth of the economy, with lags
spanning the period over which any regularity of behaviour is postulated by
economists to exist. We use methods of random matrix theory to analyse the
correlation matrix of the delay matrix. This is done for annual data from 1871
to 1994 for 17 economies, and for post-war quarterly data for the US and the
UK. The properties of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of these correlation
matrices are similar, though not identical, to those implied by random matrix
theory. This suggests that the genuine information content in economic growth
data is low, and so forecasting failure arises from inherent properties of the
data.

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The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
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The categories of this paper are: solv-int
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The categories of this paper are: nlin
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The categories of this paper are: stat
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The categories of this paper are: math-ph
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The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
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The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
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The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
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The categories of this paper are: cs
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The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
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The categories of this paper are: funct-an
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The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
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The categories of this paper are: q-bio
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The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
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The categories of this paper are: econ