Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Relative Contagiousness of Emerging Virus Variants: An Analysis of the
  Alpha, Delta, and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variants   We propose a simple dynamic model for estimating the relative contagiousness
of two virus variants. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference is
conveniently invariant to variation in the total number of cases over the
sample period and can be expressed as a logistic regression. We apply the model
to Danish SARS-CoV-2 variant data. We estimate the reproduction numbers of
Alpha and Delta to be larger than that of the ancestral variant by a factor of
1.51 [CI 95%: 1.50, 1.53] and 3.28 [CI 95%: 3.01, 3.58], respectively. In a
predominately vaccinated population, we estimate Omicron to be 3.15 [CI 95%:
2.83, 3.50] times more infectious than Delta. Forecasting the proportion of an
emerging virus variant is straight forward and we proceed to show how the
effective reproduction number for a new variant can be estimated without
contemporary sequencing results. This is useful for assessing the state of the
pandemic in real time as we illustrate empirically with the inferred effective
reproduction number for the Alpha variant.

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The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
11
The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
1
The categories of this paper are: cs
12
The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
2
The categories of this paper are: math
20
The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th