Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: A demographic scaling model for estimating the total number of COVID-19
  infections   Understanding how widely COVID-19 has spread is critical for examining the
pandemic's progression. Despite efforts to carefully monitor the pandemic, the
number of confirmed cases may underestimate the total number of infections. We
introduce a demographic scaling model to estimate COVID-19 infections using an
broadly applicable approach that is based on minimal data requirements:
COVID-19 related deaths, infection fatality rates (IFRs), and life tables. As
many countries lack reliable estimates of age-specific IFRs, we scale IFRs
between countries using remaining life expectancy as a marker to account for
differences in age structures, health conditions, and medical services. Across
10 countries with most COVID-19 deaths as of May 13, 2020, the number of
infections is estimated to be four [95% prediction interval: 2-11] times higher
than the number of confirmed cases. Cross-country variation is high. The
estimated number of infections is 1.4 million (six times the number of
confirmed cases) for Italy; 3.1 million (2.2 times the number of confirmed
cases) for the U.S.; and 1.8 times the number of confirmed cases for Germany,
where testing has been comparatively extensive. Our prevalence estimates,
however, are markedly lower than most others based on local seroprevalence
studies. We introduce formulas for quantifying the bias that is required in our
data on deaths in order to reproduce estimates published elsewhere. This bias
analysis shows that either COVID-19 deaths are severely underestimated, by a
factor of two or more; or alternatively, the seroprevalence based results are
overestimates and not representative for the total population.

33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
1
The categories of this paper are: cs
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
16
The categories of this paper are: stat
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga