Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Time-dependent SI model for epidemiology and applications to Covid-19   A generalisation of the Susceptible-Infectious model is made to include a
time-dependent transmission rate, which leads to a close analytical expression
in terms of a logistic function. The solution can be applied to any continuous
function chosen to describe the evolution of the transmission rate with time.
Taking inspiration from real data of the Covid-19, for the case of cumulative
confirmed positives and deaths, we propose an exponentially decaying
transmission rate with two free parameters, one for its initial amplitude and
another one for its decaying rate. The resultant time-dependent SI model, which
under extra conditions recovers the standard Gompertz functional form, is then
compared with data from selected countries and its parameters fit using
Bayesian inference. We make predictions about the asymptotic number of
confirmed positives and deaths, and discuss the possible evolution of the
disease in each country in terms of our parametrisation of the transmission
rate.

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The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
15
The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
16
The categories of this paper are: stat
1
The categories of this paper are: cs
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
18
The categories of this paper are: econ