Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Does Bayesian Model Averaging improve polynomial extrapolations? Two toy
  problems as tests   We assess the accuracy of Bayesian polynomial extrapolations from small
parameter values, x, to large values of x. We consider a set of polynomials of
fixed order, intended as a proxy for a fixed-order effective field theory (EFT)
description of data. We employ Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to combine
results from different order polynomials (EFT orders). Our study considers two
"toy problems" where the underlying function used to generate data sets is
known. We use Bayesian parameter estimation to extract the polynomial
coefficients that describe these data at low x. A "naturalness" prior is
imposed on the coefficients, so that they are O(1). We Bayesian-Model-Average
different polynomial degrees by weighting each according to its Bayesian
evidence and compare the predictive performance of this Bayesian Model Average
with that of the individual polynomials. The credibility intervals on the BMA
forecast have the stated coverage properties more consistently than does the
highest evidence polynomial, though BMA does not necessarily outperform every
polynomial.

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The categories of this paper are: hep-th
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The categories of this paper are: solv-int
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
1
The categories of this paper are: cs
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
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The categories of this paper are: q-fin
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The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
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The categories of this paper are: eess
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The categories of this paper are: econ
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
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The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
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The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
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The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn