Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Realistic estimate of the Covid-19 incidence and mortality rate in
  France   Large scale virological testing of SARS-Cov2 is implemented since May 2020 in
France. We assume that the positivity of asymptomatic people not being contact
cases (ANBC) is representative of the positivity of the whole French
population, which allows estimating the real incidence. We estimate, using
Sant\'e Public France reports, that the incidence at the beginning of August
was about 0.8% and rose to about 2.4% of the total population at the beginning
of September. This corresponds to about 1.6 million people simultaneously
infected and 230.000 new infections each day. These evaluations allow to deduce
that intensive care units (ICU) admission rate and infection fatality rate
(IFR) dropped by one order of magnitude since March, and are currently 0.036%
and 0.027% respectively. Basic simulations of the outbreak evolution based on
the hypothesis of negligible reinfection probability are performed for France,
Ile de France, Puy de Dome, Bouches du Rhone and Grand Est. These simulations
are using a reproduction rate (R) constant over time ranging from 1.3 to 1.45
(1.15 in Grand Est). They use an estimation of the number of infection which
occurred during the first wave. These simulations also use the estimated
incidence, which by reducing the susceptible population weeks after weeks
induces a saturation of the otherwise exponential growth of the outbreak. An
incidence peak of 3.5 % is expected at week 39 for France. The calculated total
number of ICU admission and deaths during the second wave are 9000 and 7000
respectively for R=1.3. The cumulative incidence over the two waves is computed
close to 60% for R=1.3 and 70% for R=1.4. This suggests that if individual
immunity exists, herd immunity is likely to be achieved in France by the end of
October 2020. We conclude that Covid-19 is much more spread than previously
thought, but its severity became limited since the end of the first wave.

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The categories of this paper are: cs
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
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The categories of this paper are: adap-org
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The categories of this paper are: physics
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The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
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The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
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The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
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The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
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The categories of this paper are: supr-con
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The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
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The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex
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The categories of this paper are: math
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The categories of this paper are: econ
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The categories of this paper are: math-ph