Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Quantitative evaluation of regulatory policies for reducing
  deforestation using the bent-cable regression model   Reducing and redressing the effects of deforestation is a complex public
policy challenge, and evaluating the efficacy of such policy efforts is crucial
for policy learning and adaptation. Deforestation in high-income nations can
contribute substantially to global forest loss, despite the presence of strong
institutions and high policy capacity. In Queensland, Australia, over 5 million
hectares of native forest has been lost since 1988. Successive regulatory
policies have aimed to reduce deforestation in Queensland, though debate exists
over their effect given the influence of other drivers of forest loss. Using a
hierarchical Bayesian statistical framework, we combine satellite imagery of
forest loss with macroeconomic, land tenure, biophysical and climatic variables
to collectively model deforestation for 50 local government areas (LGAs) across
Queensland. We apply the spatially explicit bent-cable regression model to
detect trend change that may signal a regulatory policy effect. We find that
annual % growth in GDP was the only clear driver of LGA-specific deforestation
after adjusting for other covariate effects. Our model shows strong evidence of
spatial contagion in deforestation across Queensland, and this effect is
influenced by the dominant land tenure type within each LGA. We find our model
exhibits a "bend" mostly between 2000 and 2007, consistent with expectations,
but the signal is not particularly strong due extreme variation in
deforestation trends between and within LGAs. Our results demonstrate that the
bent-cable model is a promising technique for detecting system changes in
response to policy interventions, but future work should be conducted at a
national scale to provide more data points, and incorporate more LGA-specific
data to improve model goodness-of-fit.

23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
11
The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
20
The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
18
The categories of this paper are: econ
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex