Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Towards a Paradigmatic Shift in Pre-election Polling Adequately
  Including Still Undecided Voters -- Some Ideas Based on Set-Valued Data for
  the 2021 German Federal Election   Within this paper we develop and apply new methodology adequately including
undecided voters for the 2021 German federal election. Due to a cooperation
with the polling institute Civey, we are in the fortunate position to obtain
data in which undecided voters can state all the options they are still
pondering between. In contrast to conventional polls, forcing the undecided to
either state a single party or to drop out, this design allows the undecided to
provide their current position in an accurate and precise way. The resulting
set-valued information can be used to examine structural properties of groups
undecided between specific parties as well as to improve election forecasting.
For forecasting, this partial information provides valuable additional
knowledge, and the uncertainty induced by the participants' ambiguity can be
conveyed within interval-valued results. Turning to coalitions of parties,
which is in the core of the current public discussion in Germany, some of this
uncertainty can be dissolved as the undecided provide precise information on
corresponding coalitions. We show structural differences between the decided
and undecided with discrete choice models as well as elaborate the discrepancy
between the conventional approach and our new ones including the undecided. Our
cautious analysis further demonstrates that in most cases the undecideds'
eventual decisions are pivotal which coalitions could hold a majority of seats.
Overall, accounting for the populations' ambiguity leads to more credible
results and paints a more holistic picture of the political landscape, pathing
the way for a possible paradigmatic shift concerning the adequate inclusion of
undecided voters in pre-election polls.

23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
11
The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
20
The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
37
The categories of this paper are: supr-con
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th