Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Predicting antimicrobial drug consumption using web search data   Consumption of antimicrobial drugs, such as antibiotics, is linked with
antimicrobial resistance. Surveillance of antimicrobial drug consumption is
therefore an important element in dealing with antimicrobial resistance. Many
countries lack sufficient surveillance systems. Usage of web mined data
therefore has the potential to improve current surveillance methods. To this
end, we study how well antimicrobial drug consumption can be predicted based on
web search queries, compared to historical purchase data of antimicrobial
drugs. We present two prediction models (linear Elastic Net, and non-linear
Gaussian Processes), which we train and evaluate on almost 6 years of weekly
antimicrobial drug consumption data from Denmark and web search data from
Google Health Trends. We present a novel method of selecting web search queries
by considering diseases and drugs linked to antimicrobials, as well as
professional and layman descriptions of antimicrobial drugs, all of which we
mine from the open web. We find that predictions based on web search data are
marginally more erroneous but overall on a par with predictions based on
purchases of antimicrobial drugs. This marginal difference corresponds to
$<1$\% point mean absolute error in weekly usage. Best predictions are reported
when combining both web search and purchase data.
  This study contributes a novel alternative solution to the real-life problem
of predicting (and hence monitoring) antimicrobial drug consumption, which is
particularly valuable in countries/states lacking centralised and timely
surveillance systems.

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The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
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The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
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The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
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The categories of this paper are: solv-int
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The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
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The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
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The categories of this paper are: math-ph
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The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
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The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
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The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
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The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
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The categories of this paper are: q-fin
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The categories of this paper are: adap-org
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The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex
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The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
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The categories of this paper are: eess