Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to
  Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets   We discuss a concept denoted as Conformal Prediction (CP) in this paper.
While initially stemming from the world of machine learning, it was never
applied or analyzed in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting.
Therefore, we elaborate the aspects that render Conformal Prediction worthwhile
to know and explain why its simple yet very efficient idea has worked in other
fields of application and why its characteristics are promising for short-term
power applications as well. We compare its performance with different
state-of-the-art electricity price forecasting models such as quantile
regression averaging (QRA) in an empirical out-of-sample study for three
short-term electricity time series. We combine Conformal Prediction with
various underlying point forecast models to demonstrate its versatility and
behavior under changing conditions. Our findings suggest that Conformal
Prediction yields sharp and reliable prediction intervals in short-term power
markets. We further inspect the effect each of Conformal Prediction's model
components has and provide a path-based guideline on how to find the best CP
model for each market.

7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
37
The categories of this paper are: supr-con
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
10
The categories of this paper are: q-bio