Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Predicting Cyber Attack Rates with Extreme Values   It is important to understand to what extent, and in what perspectives, cyber
attacks can be predicted. Despite its evident importance, this problem was not
investigated until very recently, when we proposed using the innovative
methodology of {\em gray-box prediction}. This methodology advocates the use of
gray-box models, which accommodate the statistical properties/phenomena
exhibited by the data. Specifically, we showed that gray-box models that
accommodate the Long-Range Dependence (LRD) phenomenon can predict the attack
rate (i.e., the number of attacks per unit time) 1-hour ahead-of-time with an
accuracy of 70.2-82.1\%. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result
showing the feasibility of prediction in this domain. We observe that the
prediction errors are partly caused by the models' incapability in predicting
the large attack rates, which are called {\em extreme values} in statistics.
This motivates us to analyze the {\em extreme-value phenomenon}, by using two
complementary approaches: the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and the Time Series
Theory (TST). In this paper, we show that EVT can offer long-term predictions
(e.g., 24-hour ahead-of-time), while gray-box TST models can predict attack
rates 1-hour ahead-of-time with an accuracy of 86.0-87.9\%. We explore
connections between the two approaches, and point out future research
directions. Although our prediction study is based on specific cyber attack
data, our methodology can be equally applied to analyze any cyber attack data
of its kind.

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The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
12
The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
37
The categories of this paper are: supr-con
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
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The categories of this paper are: physics
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The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
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The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
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The categories of this paper are: eess
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The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg