Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Forecasting Popularity of Videos using Social Media   This paper presents a systematic online prediction method (Social-Forecast)
that is capable to accurately forecast the popularity of videos promoted by
social media. Social-Forecast explicitly considers the dynamically changing and
evolving propagation patterns of videos in social media when making popularity
forecasts, thereby being situation and context aware. Social-Forecast aims to
maximize the forecast reward, which is defined as a tradeoff between the
popularity prediction accuracy and the timeliness with which a prediction is
issued. The forecasting is performed online and requires no training phase or a
priori knowledge. We analytically bound the prediction performance loss of
Social-Forecast as compared to that obtained by an omniscient oracle and prove
that the bound is sublinear in the number of video arrivals, thereby
guaranteeing its short-term performance as well as its asymptotic convergence
to the optimal performance. In addition, we conduct extensive experiments using
real-world data traces collected from the videos shared in RenRen, one of the
largest online social networks in China. These experiments show that our
proposed method outperforms existing view-based approaches for popularity
prediction (which are not context-aware) by more than 30% in terms of
prediction rewards.

13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
16
The categories of this paper are: stat
2
The categories of this paper are: math
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
11
The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph