Instruct: Identify the main category of Medrxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: A Flexible Data-Driven Framework for COVID-19 Case Forecasting Deployed in a Developing-world Public Health Setting Forecasting infection case counts and estimating accurate epidemiological parameters are critical components of managing the response to a pandemic. This paper describes a modular, extensible framework for a COVID-19 forecasting system, primarily deployed during the first Covid wave in Mumbai and Jharkhand, India. We employ a variant of the SEIR compartmental model motivated by the nature of the available data and operational constraints. We estimate best fit parameters using Sequential Model-Based Optimization (SMBO), and describe the use of a novel, fast and approximate Bayesian model averaging method (ABMA) for parameter uncertainty estimation that compares well with a more rigorous Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach in practice. We address on-the-ground deployment challenges such as spikes in the reported input data using a novel weighted smoothing method. We describe extensive empirical analyses to evaluate the accuracy of our method on ground truth as well as against other state-of-the-art approaches. Finally, we outline deployment lessons and describe how inferred model parameters were used by government partners to interpret the state of the epidemic and how model forecasts were used to estimate staffing and planning needs essential for addressing COVID-19 hospital burden.

CCS CONCEPTSO_LIApplied computing [-&gt;] Health care information systems; Forecasting;
C_LIO_LIComputing methodologies [-&gt;] Modeling methodologies.
C_LI
19
The categories of this paper are: public
47
The categories of this paper are: care
32
The categories of this paper are: rehabilitation
13
The categories of this paper are: genetic
10
The categories of this paper are: infectious
64
The categories of this paper are: ophthalmology
21
The categories of this paper are: psychology
68
The categories of this paper are: surgery
62
The categories of this paper are: orthopedics
67
The categories of this paper are: transplantation
37
The categories of this paper are: aids
59
The categories of this paper are: respiratory
35
The categories of this paper are: pediatrics
38
The categories of this paper are: hiv
11
The categories of this paper are: policy
30
The categories of this paper are: radiology