Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Approximating the epidemic curve   Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure. The
numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be
well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of
individuals that are susceptible follows a more or less deterministic course.
In this paper, we show that both of these features are consequences of assuming
a locally branching structure in the models, and that the deterministic course
can itself be determined from the distribution of the limiting random variable
associated with the backward, susceptibility branching process. Examples
considered include a stochastic version of the Kermack & McKendrick model, the
Reed-Frost model, and the Volz configuration model.

7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
12
The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
1
The categories of this paper are: cs
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom