Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: COVID-19: Forecasting mortality given mobility trend data and
  non-pharmaceutical interventions   We develop a novel hybrid epidemiological model and a specific methodology
for its calibration to distinguish and assess the impact of mobility
restrictions (given by Apple's mobility trends data) from other complementary
non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to control the spread of COVID-19.
Using the calibrated model, we estimate that mobility restrictions contribute
to 47 % (US States) and 47 % (worldwide) of the overall suppression of the
disease transmission rate using data up to 13/08/2020. The forecast capacity of
our model was evaluated doing four-weeks ahead predictions. Using data up to
30/06/20 for calibration, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the
prediction of cumulative deceased individuals was 5.0 % for the United States
(51 states) and 6.7 % worldwide (49 countries). This MAPE was reduced to 3.5%
for the US and 3.8% worldwide using data up to 13/08/2020. We find that the
MAPE was higher for the total confirmed cases at 11.5% worldwide and 10.2% for
the US States using data up to 13/08/2020. Our calibrated model achieves an
average R-Squared value for cumulative confirmed and deceased cases of 0.992
using data up to 30/06/20 and 0.98 using data up to 13/08/20.

35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
12
The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga