Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Bayesian data assimilation provides rapid decision support for
  vector-borne diseases   Predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases in response to incursions
requires knowledge of both host and vector demographics in advance of an
outbreak. Whereas host population data is typically available, for novel
disease introductions there is a high chance of the pathogen utilising a vector
for which data is unavailable. This presents a barrier to estimating the
parameters of dynamical models representing host-vector-pathogen interaction,
and hence limits their ability to provide quantitative risk forecasts. The
Theileria orientalis (Ikeda) outbreak in New Zealand cattle demonstrates this
problem: even though the vector has received extensive laboratory study, a high
degree of uncertainty persists over its national demographic distribution.
Addressing this, we develop a Bayesian data assimilation approach whereby
indirect observations of vector activity inform a seasonal spatio-temporal risk
surface within a stochastic epidemic model. We provide quantitative predictions
for the future spread of the epidemic, quantifying uncertainty in the model
parameters, case infection times, and the disease status of undetected
infections. Importantly, we demonstrate how our model learns sequentially as
the epidemic unfolds, and provides evidence for changing epidemic dynamics
through time. Our approach therefore provides a significant advance in rapid
decision support for novel vector-borne disease outbreaks.

8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
11
The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
18
The categories of this paper are: econ
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
20
The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
15
The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex