Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a
  focus on global radiation forecasts   The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system
COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy
applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on
global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production,
and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector.
First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the
observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the
ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is
quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed,
aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast,
when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against
pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results
show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is
season-dependent and increases with the forecast horizon.

24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
16
The categories of this paper are: stat
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
37
The categories of this paper are: supr-con
5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph