Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: A Remark on Baserunning risk: Waiting Can Cost You the Game   We address the value of a baserunner at first base waiting to see if a ball
in play falls in for a hit, before running. When a ball is hit in the air, the
baserunner will usually wait, to gather additional information as to whether a
ball will fall for a hit before deciding to run aggressively. This additional
information guarantees that there will not be a double play and an "unnecessary
out". However, waiting could potentially cost the runner the opportunity to
reach third base, or even scoring on the play if the ball falls for a hit. This
in turn affects the probability of scoring at least one run henceforth in the
inning. We create a new statistic, the baserunning risk threshold (BRT), which
measures the minimum probability with which the baserunner should be sure that
a ball in play will fall in for a hit, before running without waiting to see if
the ball will be caught, with the goal of scoring at least one run in the
inning. We measure a 0-out and a 1-out version of BRT, both in aggregate, and
also in high leverage situations, where scoring one run is particularly
important. We show a drop in BRT for pitchers who pitch in more high leverage
innings, and a very low BRT on average for "elite closers". It follows that
baserunners should be frequently running without waiting, and getting thrown
out in double plays regularly to maximize their chances of scoring at least one
run.

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The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
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The categories of this paper are: adap-org
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The categories of this paper are: econ
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The categories of this paper are: physics
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The categories of this paper are: q-fin
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The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
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The categories of this paper are: math
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The categories of this paper are: q-alg
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The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
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The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
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The categories of this paper are: solv-int
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The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
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The categories of this paper are: supr-con
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The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
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The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
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The categories of this paper are: gr-qc