2020 Census: Actions Needed to Address Challenges to Enumerating Hard-to-Count Groups

A goal for the 2020 Census is to count everyone once, only once, and in the right place. Achieving a complete and accurate census is becoming an increasingly complex task, in part because the nation's population is growing larger, more diverse, and more reluctant to participate. When the census misses a person who should have been included, it results in an undercount. Historically, certain sociodemographic groups have been undercounted in the census, which is particularly problematic given the many uses of census data.

GAO was asked to review the Bureau's plans for enumerating hard-to-count groups in the 2020 Census. This report examines (1) the Bureau's plans for improving the enumeration of the hard-to-count in 2020, and how that compares with 2010; and (2) the challenges the Bureau faces in improving the enumeration of the hard-to-count in 2020. GAO reviewed Bureau planning, budget, operational, and evaluation documents as well as documents of the hard-to-count related working groups of the Bureau's National Advisory Committee; and interviewed Bureau officials.

The Census Bureau's (Bureau) plans for enumerating groups considered hard-to-count, such as minorities, renters, and young children, in the 2020 Census includes the use of both traditional and enhanced initiatives. For example, the Bureau plans to continue using certain outreach efforts used in 2010, such as a communications campaign with paid advertising, partnerships with local organizations, and targeted outreach to immigrant and faith-based organizations. The Bureau also plans enhancements to its outreach efforts compared to 2010. For example, to help address the undercount of young children, the Bureau revised the census questionnaire and instructions to enumerators to more explicitly include grandchildren in counts. Other planned changes include:

Expanded languages: The Bureau plans to offer more non-English language response options and instructional materials than for 2010.

More partnership specialists: The Bureau plans to hire nearly twice as many partnership specialists as it had planned for the 2010 Census to recruit partner organizations in local communities.

Earlier partnership hiring : The Bureau started hiring a small number of partnership staff in October 2015—2 years earlier than it did for 2010.

While efforts have been made, enumerating hard-to-count persons in 2020 will not be easy. Aside from the inherent difficulties of counting such individuals, the Bureau faces certain management challenges related to its hard-to-count efforts.

First, the Bureau's hard-to-count efforts are distributed across over one third of its 35 operations supporting the 2020 Census. And while decentralized operations can provide flexibility, to enhance visibility over these hard-to-count efforts, the Bureau recently developed a draft operational document. However, the Bureau will continue to face challenges in ensuring its hard-to-count efforts integrate with each other. For example, some of the detailed plans for 10 of the hard-to-count efforts were released in 2016 and are awaiting updates, while 4 plans have yet to be released. With less than 2 years until Census Day (April 1, 2020), there is little room for delay. Therefore, to ensure that emerging plans related to the hard-to-count efforts integrate with existing plans, Bureau management will need to continue its focus on control of the changes in hard-to-count efforts moving forward.

Second, the Bureau faces a challenge of a tighter labor market than existed prior to 2010 that could potentially create shortfalls or delays in its hiring of partnership staff who are needed to reach small and hard-to-count communities. In early hiring for 2020, Bureau officials reported smaller than expected applicant pools, declined offers, and turnover. Although it has plans to identify critical skills for 2020 and for tailored recruiting, collecting data on its hiring efforts will also be important. Currently, the Bureau lacks data from its 2010 Census that could have helped inform its partnership-staff hiring efforts for 2020.

GAO recommends that the Bureau take steps to ensure that forthcoming changes and decisions on its hard-to-count related efforts are integrated with other operational efforts and that it collects data on its 2020 partnership hiring efforts.

The Department of Commerce agreed with GAO's recommendations, and the Bureau provided technical comments that were incorporated, as appropriate.

A goal of the 2020 Census is to count everyone once, only once, and in  the right place. However, achieving a complete and accurate census is  becoming an increasingly complex task. This is in part because the  nation’s population is growing larger; more diverse in culture, living  arrangements, and in the number of languages spoken; and more  reluctant to participate. The U.S. Census Bureau’s (Bureau) efforts during  the early part of the decade were largely focused on preparing and testing  innovations largely designed to save money. The former Bureau director  previously testified that part of these savings could go toward improving  the enumeration of the “hard-to-count” groups historically missed in the  census, such as racial and ethnic minorities, renters, and young children.  However, the Bureau’s cost estimates have risen over the decade,  eliminating much of those initial projected savings, and the Bureau has  requested increased funding over multiple years while it develops its  plans for enumerating these groups.

You asked us to review the Bureau’s plans for enumerating the hard-to- count groups in the 2020 Census. This report examines (1) the Bureau’s  plans for improving the enumeration of the hard-to-count in 2020, and  how that compares with its effort for 2010; and (2) the challenges, if any,  the Bureau faces in improving the enumeration of the hard-to-count in  2020.

We generally limited our scope to the six Bureau operations with a goal or  objective related to improving the enumeration of the hard-to-count  groups. These operations are: Integrated Partnership and  Communications, Language Services, Non-ID Processing, Group  Quarters/Service-Based Enumeration, Enumeration at Transitory  Locations, and Coverage Improvement.

To address both of these objectives, we reviewed Bureau planning,  budget, operational, and evaluation documents related to the Bureau’s  efforts to enumerate hard-to-count groups in the 2020 Census and prior  decennials. We also interviewed Bureau officials responsible for planning  and executing the 2020 Census and with experience in prior decennials  about planned changes from the 2010 Census and related challenges.

To address the first objective, we also analyzed the Bureau’s most  recently available planned hiring and life cycle cost estimates for these  activities and compared those to the Bureau reported level of planned  hiring and actual spending for the 2010 Census. To assess the reliability  of these Bureau reported data, we compared the historical information the  Bureau provided us for the 2010 Census with information found in the  Bureau’s 2010 Census evaluations, and interviewed knowledgeable  Bureau officials. We determined that the data were sufficiently reliable to  describe the Bureau’s planned hiring and cost estimates for the 2020  Census compared to similar activities for the 2010 Census, except where  noted.

To address the second objective, we also reviewed related Bureau  evaluations and recommendations from the 2010 Census and 2020  Census research and testing activities, and from the Bureau’s National  Advisory Committee and hard-to-count related working groups to identify  challenges the Bureau may face in improving the enumeration of the hard  to count. We supplemented our review of Bureau documentation by  conducting a search of the literature for academic and other publications  related to including hard-to-count groups in surveys.

We conducted this performance audit from November 2017 to July 2018  in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.  Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain  sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our  findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that  the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and  conclusions based on our audit objectives.

Although the Bureau goes to great lengths to conduct an accurate count  of the nation’s population, some degree of inaccuracy is inevitable. When  the census misses a person who should have been included, it results in  an undercount. An overcount occurs when an individual is counted more  than once or in the wrong place. These errors are problematic because  certain groups such as minorities, young children, and renters are more  likely to be missed in the census, while other groups such as those who  may own a second, seasonal home are more likely to be counted more  than once. As census data are used to apportion seats in Congress,  redraw congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars in federal  assistance each year, improving coverage and reducing undercounts are  important.

As an example, the Bureau reported that the 2010 Census did not have a  significant net undercount or overcount nationally. However, as shown in  figure 1, errors in census coverage were unevenly distributed through the  population. For example, the Bureau estimated that it missed nearly 5  percent of American Indians living on reservations—the  sociodemographic group with the highest percent net undercount in  2010—whereas the Bureau estimated it overcounted almost 1 percent of  non-Hispanic whites.

In addition to those groups with characteristics the Bureau can  measure—based on their responses to certain questions asked on the  census questionnaire—there are many other hard-to-count groups, some  of which cut across sociodemographic groups, as shown in table 1. For  example, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer/questioning  persons or persons who distrust government can cut across all  sociodemographic groups.

There are complex reasons why certain groups are considered hard-to- count. According to Bureau officials, for example, one way to think about  the hard-to-count problem is to consider what groups are hard to locate,  contact, persuade, and interview for the census (see figure 2).

Hard-to-locate. Some groups are hard-to-locate because where they live  is unknown, or they move frequently. For example, the Bureau faces  difficulty counting persons experiencing homelessness. Adding to this  difficulty are reported increases in the prevalence and complexity of  outdoor encampments across the country. Inhabitants design many of  these encampments to remain hidden; some people may remain in an  encampment for years while other people may move frequently.

Hard-to-persuade. Other groups are hard-to-persuade to participate in  the census. For example, while the Bureau had identified those who  distrust government as a hard-to-count group based on research prior to  the 2010 Census, in November 2017, the Bureau reported to its National  Advisory Committee an increase in unprompted confidentiality concerns  raised by individuals in focus groups and pretests for the 2020 Census  and other surveys.

Multiple factors. Some groups are hard to count for multiple complex  reasons. For example, a Bureau taskforce found that households with  young children up to 4 years old may be missed altogether due to  frequent moves between rental units (hard-to-contact). Moreover, some  households studied—such as complex households with multiple  generations—also appeared to be confused about whether or not to  include their young children when completing the questionnaire or when  being interviewed by census enumerators. The Bureau also found that  language barriers sometimes resulted in households leaving young  children off their census or other survey questionnaire (hard-to- interview).

Congress Has Prioritized Funding for Decennial Partnership and Communications Efforts in Both the 2010 Census and the 2020 Census

An appropriation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of  2009 (Recovery Act) allowed the Bureau to increase the funding of the  Bureau’s 2010 Census partnership and communications efforts. The  Bureau has partnered with governments, businesses, and local  community organizations to help promote the census. The Bureau has  also relied on a communications campaign including paid advertisements  in national and targeted markets to help build awareness of the census.  After adjusting for inflation, the Bureau spent about $123 million to  expand its advertising and about $125 million to expand its partnership  efforts (in 2017 dollars), primarily by hiring additional partnership-related  staff beyond original plans.

Partnership staff hired to support the 2010 Census were responsible for  mobilizing local support for the census by working with local organizations  to promote participation. Partnership staff for the 2010 Census included a  mix of partnership specialists—responsible for building relationships with  and obtaining commitments from governments, local businesses, and  other organizations to help promote the census—managers, graphic  designers, and clerical support positions. After receiving Recovery Act  funding, the Bureau created a new partnership assistant position. After  the partnership specialists had established agreements with local  organizations, these partnership assistants were responsible for  supporting the implementation of promotion efforts, such as by staffing  fairs and other events. Bureau officials told us that they believed that  creating a new partnership assistant position would help promote census  awareness.

The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2018 directed the Bureau to  conduct its fiscal year 2018 partnership and communications efforts in  preparation for the 2020 Census at a level and staffing no less than the  Bureau conducted during fiscal year 2008 in preparation for the 2010  Census. The act appropriated more than $2.5 billion for the Periodic  Censuses and Programs account, which according to Bureau officials  includes over $1 billion from the Bureau’s fiscal year 2019 budget request  intended to smooth transition of funding between fiscal years, such as in  the event of a continuing resolution.

The Bureau Plans to Enhance Outreach to and the Enumeration of Hard-to-Count Groups in 2020, but Estimated Spending Is Similar to 2010

The Bureau Plans Enhancements to Key 2020 Census Operations to Address Complexity Enumerating Hard-to- Count Groups

The Bureau will continue to rely on its Integrated Partnership and  Communications operation—designed to communicate the importance of  census participation and motivate self-response—as a key component of  its efforts to improve enumeration of hard-to-count persons in the 2020  Census. Evaluations conducted by the Bureau found that its partnership  and communications efforts had positive effects on increasing awareness  and participation among the hard-to-count in prior censuses. Because of  the positive effects, the Bureau has begun outreach to the more than  257,000 tribal, state, and local governments as well as other businesses  and organizations it partnered with in 2010. For example, the Bureau  plans to continue using “trusted voices”—individuals or groups with  relevance, importance, and relatability to a given population, such as local  leaders and gatekeepers within isolated communities—to promote the  census. As part of this effort, the Bureau plans to continue outreach  initiatives to specific constituencies, such as to faith-based communities,  and, through its Foreign Born/Immigrant initiative, to outreach and  communicate with recent immigrants, undocumented residents, refugees,  and migrant and seasonal farm workers.

In addition, the Bureau still plans to advertise in national and targeted  markets. For example, to support its 2020 outreach efforts, including to  hard-to-count groups, the Bureau awarded a communications contract in  August 2016 to Young and Rubicam, an advertising firm. As has been  done in prior censuses, this contractor has enlisted 14 partners and  subcontractors to help it reach specific sociodemographic groups, such  as American Indian and Alaska Native populations and Hispanic  communities.

Given the increasingly complex task of counting those historically missed  in the census, the Bureau has taken steps or plans to enhance some  aspects of the initiatives under its Integrated Partnership and  Communications operation and to other key operations compared to the  2010 Census, as shown in table 2. For example, the Bureau overhauled  a metric it has used to help manage and target field work for its  partnerships to areas with hard-to-count populations, basing it now on  predictions of each household’s likelihood to self-respond to the census.  Using this new low response score metric, the Bureau created a publicly  available online mapping tool for its partnership staff and other users to  better understand the sociodemographic make-up of their assigned areas  and to plan their outreach efforts accordingly. Moreover, as we  previously recommended in 2010, the Bureau also plans to develop  predictive models to help allocate its advertising using: (1) these  predictive response data, (2) results describing the complexity of difficult  enumeration from its recent “behaviors, attitudes, and motivators survey”  study and focus groups, and (3) other third-party data.

The Bureau is still evaluating certain initiatives before deciding whether or  not to include them in its 2020 plans. For example, as part of the 2018  End-to-End Test currently underway in Providence, Rhode Island, the  Bureau is piloting the use of Internet kiosks in selected post offices to  help allow persons to self-respond to the census. Bureau officials said  they will decide whether to move forward with the use of kiosks in post  offices in 2020 after evaluating the pilot and the test.

In addition, according to the Bureau’s current planning documents, the  Bureau has plans to change other key operations to help improve the  enumeration of certain hard-to-count groups. For example, to help  address the complex undercount of young children, the Bureau revised  the census questionnaire and instructions to enumerators to more  explicitly mention the inclusion of grandchildren and any non-relatives in  household population counts. In addition, the Bureau’s planning  documents describe plans to offer administrators at certain group  quarters locations, such as college dormitories, the option to electronically  transfer their rosters to the Bureau. Bureau officials said that this  planned change will help reduce the need for enumerators to visit those  locations, and that such an efficiency gain will allow them to devote  resources on the ground to other harder to enumerate group quarters.

Recognizing the importance of reaching an increasingly linguistically  diverse population, the Bureau has also made significant changes to its  Language Services operation for 2020, including increasing the number  of non-English languages formally supported by the Bureau. Table 3  below summarizes changes in the number of languages the Bureau plans  to support. According to the Bureau, this larger choice of languages  should increase the percentage of limited-English-speaking households  directly supported by that operation from 78 percent in 2010 to 87 percent  in 2020.

The Bureau is still assessing the level of non-English support it will  directly provide through advertising, partnership, and promotional  materials. Bureau officials stated that they will decide the number of — and which—non-English languages to support after it has completed  research on how best to segment advertising markets in fall 2018. Until  then, it has committed to at least 12 non-English languages—which is  less than half of the 27 non-English languages similarly supported in the  2010 Census. Bureau officials said that one action they will take to  mitigate any effects if the Bureau decides on a fewer number of  languages for 2020 is to provide language-independent media  templates—including scripts to videos ready for non-English voiceovers— to any partner groups that may need them.

The Bureau has also formalized its language translation capabilities for  the non-English languages it chooses to support based on 2010 Census  evaluations that found, among other things, that the Bureau’s lack of  sufficient oversight of its translation process hampered consistency of its  translation of promotion and outreach materials. For the 2020 Census,  Bureau officials said they intend to rely on in-house translation experts  adhering to translation industry standards. Bureau officials stated that the Bureau will not attempt to oversee the translations that partners may  make into less commonly spoken languages using the Bureau’s  language-neutral materials when trying to reach more isolated language  areas, though officials stated that its partners, including contractors for  advertising, will rely on Bureau-developed language glossaries for census  terminology when translating into other languages.

The Bureau Plans Total Spending for Its 2020 Census Outreach Efforts Similar to that for 2010 Census, and to Hire More Partnership Specialists Instead of Assistants

The Bureau estimates total spending for its 2020 partnership and  communications outreach efforts to be similar to what it reported  spending on those efforts for the 2010 Census after adjusting for inflation.  Specifically, according to documents supporting the Bureau’s most recent  life cycle cost estimate for the 2020 Census, the Bureau may spend about  $850 million in its outreach to promote the 2020 Census, compared to  nearly $830 million in total spending in comparable categories for the  2010 Census. (See table 4.)

Partnership staff. According to the Bureau’s current planning  documents, it will hire nearly twice as many partnership specialists— responsible for building relationships and obtaining commitments from  organizations—to support the 2020 Census than it hired to support the  2010 Census. Despite this planned increase in partnership specialists,  the Bureau’s total estimated spending on partnership staff—$248  million—is less than the $334 million the Bureau reported spending in the  same cost category for 2010 after adjusting for inflation. This change is  in part because the Bureau does not plan to hire any partnership  assistants to support the 2020 Census.

According to Bureau planning data from the 2010 Census, the Bureau  planned to hire over 1,700 partnership assistants—those that assisted  specialists for the 2010 Census—with Recovery Act funding. As noted  previously, Bureau officials said that the additional funding it received  from the Recovery Act in 2009 (about $125 million in 2017 dollars) largely  funded the hiring of these partnership assistants. The effect of the  Recovery Act funding on partnership hiring is shown in figure 3 below.  According to Bureau officials, without the Recovery Act funding and its  direction for the Bureau to increase hiring in order to stimulate the  economy, the Bureau would not have hired the large number of  partnership assistants that it did.

According to Bureau officials, this shift in hiring toward more partnership  specialists will enable a greater focus on creating more partnerships and  require greater reliance on partner organizations to help with staffing for  outreach and promotion events in local communities that partnership  assistants were used for in the 2010 Census. While the ability of future  partners to help with these events remains to be seen, Bureau officials  involved in early outreach with partners stated that they believe this  planned approach shows early promise based on the over 1,500 partners  they have engaged for the 2020 Census so far.

Headquarters support. The $111 million amount the Bureau plans to  spend in headquarters support for outreach efforts is similar to the $106  million it spent in the 2010 Census after adjusting for inflation. According  to Bureau documents, this support will be used for advertising, media,  and partnership efforts.

Communications campaign. The Bureau plans to spend more in its  communications campaign category in the 2020 Census than what it  reported spending in this area during the 2010 Census—$492 million  compared to $388 million after adjusting for inflation, according to the  Bureau’s cost estimation documents. The campaign will include paid  advertising and the development of promotional materials. According to  Bureau officials, they will initiate much of this spending in May 2019. This  larger figure includes about $152 million for additional contracted services  still being planned, but provisionally allocated for various advertising  support efforts with the balance for various partnership materials not  included in other contracts.

The Bureau does not plan to repeat its “2010 Census Road Tour”  involving a large mobile display and over a dozen cargo vans that were  driven to promotional events around the country at a cost of about $16.6  million after adjusting for inflation. While the Bureau did not conduct a  formal evaluation of the initiative’s effectiveness at encouraging response  during the 2010 Census, Bureau officials told us that they do not believe it  was as effective a use of resources compared to the other options they  are planning for 2020.

The Bureau Started Partnership Hiring Earlier for the 2020 Census Than for 2010

An evaluation conducted by the Bureau of its 2010 partnership efforts  recommended that, for the 2020 Census, the Bureau hire at least a core  group of partnership staff 3 years prior to census day instead of the 2  years prior as was done for the 2010 Census. Consistent with that  recommendation, according to Bureau officials, the Bureau hired five  partnership specialists for the 2020 Census in October 2015—more than  2 years earlier in the decennial cycle than its first hiring of partnership  specialists in January 2008 for the 2010 Census, as shown in figure 4.  Bureau officials told us that this hiring helped the Bureau complete tribal  consultations earlier than it had for the 2010 Census. Moreover, the  Bureau continued its early hiring with 39 more partnership specialists in  fiscal year 2017. Bureau officials said that, with the additional year of  preparation, these staff initiated outreach to the highest level of  government in each of the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto  Rico, resulting in, as of April 2018, partnership staff having obtained  commitments or statements of interest from all but two state governments  to form State Complete Count Commissions/Committees. These  Commissions/Committees are intended to help form partnerships at the  highest levels of government within each state and leverage each state’s  vested interest in a timely and complete count of its population.

Bureau officials said they also recently further accelerated the Bureau’s  planned time frames for hiring partnership specialists. These officials said  that with the funds made available in the Fiscal Year 2018 Consolidated  Appropriations Omnibus, the Bureau began posting job announcements  for about 70 partnership specialists in April 2018 and hopes to begin  hiring in July 2018—3 months earlier than October 2018, as had  otherwise been planned.

In addition, with 2018 funds, Bureau officials said they are working to  identify elements of the communications campaign to begin earlier than  the planned start date of October 1, 2018. The Bureau and the lead  communications contractor identified possible efforts to start months  earlier. According to Bureau officials, they are finalizing how to accelerate  these efforts, including the Statistics in Schools initiative, media planning,  and hosting a creative development workshop with the communications  contractors.

The Bureau Faces Internal Management and External Workforce Challenges in Improving the Enumeration of Hard- to-Count Groups in 2020

The Bureau Faces an Internal Management Challenge Integrating Its Many Hard-to-Count Efforts

According to the Bureau and as shown in figure 5, over one-third of its 35  operations (14 of 35) are designed, at least in part, to help improve the  enumeration of hard-to-count groups. These efforts range from the  earliest field data collection operations—such as address canvassing  when the Bureau aims to identify all possible addresses where people  live, including hidden housing units such as basement apartments or  attics—to some of its later field operations, such as nonresponse follow- up when census enumerators visit each household that did not self- respond.

Each of the 35 operations is implemented by a separate team that  manages and controls its activities and, according to Bureau governance  documents, is also responsible for reviewing and managing its risks,  schedule, and scope, as well as developing needed capability  requirements. Team leads are responsible for ensuring integration with  other operation teams, and escalating risks to management, as well as  ensuring communication upward to the various governance bodies  overseeing the decentralized structure. Operational decisions within the  scope of plans that have been approved by the governance bodies are  made at the team level, while ultimate responsibility rests with respective  associate directors for the decennial, field, communications, and other  directorates, whose staff largely comprise the teams, and the Director of  the Census Bureau itself. The Bureau exercises change control over the  scope, schedule, and documentation of its baseline program design, with  a change control board comprising process and program managers with  responsibility over the operational teams. Approved changes are formally  communicated via e-mail to stakeholders in the change control process.

Managing decentralized operations in such a way can be effective and  provide an agency flexibility in responding to changing conditions on the  ground, such as when adapting census methods in response to natural  disasters as the Bureau had to do during the 2010 Census for areas  affected by Hurricane Katrina. However, such decentralization also  presents a challenge to management as it tries to ensure the integration  of its efforts to improve enumeration of the hard-to-count groups.

To help address the challenge of managing so many hard-to-count efforts  that cut across the decentralized operations, during our review, the  Bureau developed a draft operational design document. This document  describes the major operations and initiatives that contribute to, at least in  part, its goal to improve the enumeration of hard-to-count groups in the  2020 Census. This is the Bureau’s first comprehensive look at the hard- to-count goal for the 2020 Census. Bureau officials said that they  developed the document because they realized that looking across the  Bureau’s operations and how they relate to difficulties enumerating hard- to-count groups would provide them a useful perspective that could help  identify any gaps or interdependencies in their various hard-to-count  efforts. Bureau officials said they plan to refine and include this document  as a chapter in the fall 2018 update of their broader 2020 Census  Operational Plan. Although this is a good first step to elevate the visibility  of the hard-to-count goal, we identified a number of other areas where  additional steps or management focus may be needed in order to help  ensure integration of certain hard-to-count related efforts, including the  following:

During exchanges of information between the Bureau and its National  Advisory Committee in 2017 and 2018, the Bureau proposed using  additional focus groups with certain population groups, census  interviewers, and trusted community messengers. These focus groups  are intended to identify root causes and ways to overcome the  confidentiality concerns increasingly being raised by respondents in  the Bureau’s earlier testing by helping to inform messaging and  outreach plans as well as staff support documents and training  materials. However, as of May 1, 2018, the Bureau reported that it  had yet to identity the resources needed to conduct the additional  focus groups it had proposed. If the Bureau is going to take this step,  it would need to complete its analysis from these proposed focus  groups with interviewers and others before starting to develop its 2020  messaging, currently scheduled to begin in October 2018. Any delays  in scheduling these activities could have an effect on activities  intended to help improve enumeration of the hard-to-count in other  related operations.

The detailed operational plans for 10 of the Bureau’s 14 hard-to- count-related operations have been documented and released  publicly. However, we found that several of the detailed plans already  released—while self-described as being updated over time to reflect  changes in strategies based on ongoing planning, research, and  testing—are nearly two years old and may not reflect more recent  decisions made. Attention by Bureau management to the details of  these operational plans as they are updated will be critical to ensure  that their interdependencies with other efforts are accounted for.

Similarly, as of May 2018, little detail is available about what  interdependencies the other 4 hard-to-count related efforts will have  on the overall 2020 Census Operational Plan and on the Bureau’s  efforts to improve the enumeration of the hard-to-count in particular.  For example, the Bureau’s operation to enumerate persons at  transitory locations—key to counting mobile persons, including those  living at motels or with traveling carnivals—is one of the 4 efforts  without a detailed operational plan yet. Because the Bureau is not  scheduled to test the integration of this enumeration with other  systems before the 2020 Census, it remains to be seen how its  forthcoming design may interact with other related operations and  systems. While Bureau officials stated that procedures likely to be  used for this operation are well established from prior censuses, they  also stated that there may be significant changes from the past in the  process the Bureau uses to determine where to count persons in this  operation and may rely on changes in the non-ID processing  operation—helping enumerate persons not having a pre-assigned  census identification number. With less than 2 years to go until  Census Day (April 1, 2020), there is little room for delay in considering  how forthcoming details on hard-to-count efforts yet to be finalized— or changed based on ongoing testing or other decisions—may have  consequences on other related efforts.

According to the Project Management Institute’s A Guide to the Project  Management Body of Knowledge, integrated change control can help  address overall risk to related efforts, which often arises from changes  made without consideration of the overall goals or plans. A significant  amount of hard-to-count-related planning for the 2020 Census is currently  underway, and in the less than 2 years remaining before Census Day, it  will be important for Bureau management to maintain a focus that helps  ensure that hard-to-count-related decisions yet to be made as well as any  changes to those already made are integrated with other related efforts.  Focused attention on these efforts will also help ensure that any  interdependencies, synergies, or gaps are identified and included in the  change-control processes the Bureau already has in place.

Hiring Partnership Staff with Critical Skills in a Tight Labor Market Creates a Workforce Challenge for the Bureau and It Lacks Data from 2010 to Guide Its Efforts

As noted previously, a key component of the 2010 Census was the hiring  of partnership staff to help build relationships with and obtain  commitments from local organizations to help encourage census  participation, particularly among hard-to-count groups. For the 2020  Census, in addition to the core relationship-building skills, Bureau officials  said they are working to identify specialized skills needed to operate  partnership initiatives in a 2020 environment, such as advanced  knowledge of digital media. However, the Bureau faces a significant  challenge in hiring these kinds of staff because it is operating in a much  tighter labor market than it did prior to the 2010 Census. As a result, it  may not be able to hire the partnership staff with the skills it now needs as  easily as it had in the past.

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the unemployment rate in  January 2008, when the Bureau first hired partnership staff for the 2010  Census, was 5 percent. That number increased to more than 7 percent by  December 2008, and then ranged from more than 7.5 percent to 10  percent in 2009 and through Census Day in April 2010. During this time,  the Bureau hired nearly 3,000 partnership staff, many of which the  Bureau hired in a few short months after receiving additional funding from  the Recovery Act. The unemployment rate is substantially lower now as  we approach the comparable part of the decade for the 2020 Census.  Specifically, the rate has ranged from 4.9 percent in October 2016, when  the Bureau starting hiring for an early round of about 40 partnership staff,  to less than 4 percent in May 2018.

Bureau officials reported experiencing challenges during these early  hiring efforts for partnership staff, although they were ultimately able to fill  the nearly 40 positions the Bureau sought to fill across its six census  regions. Bureau officials in the regional field offices reported observing  smaller applicant pools, declined job offers, and early turnover due to a  lower pay rate the Bureau offered compared to the local economy.  Moreover, these officials reported seeing fewer applicants through local  job markets, which had been successful recruiting mechanisms in the  prior census. According to the Bureau’s planning documents, the Bureau  plans to ramp up its hiring of partnership specialists between July 2018  and 2019. If the unemployment rate generally holds steady at around the  4 percent of May 2018, the Bureau will likely face challenges recruiting  and retaining partnership staff with the critical skills needed.

Bureau officials said that they will develop customized recruiting  strategies to fill specific needs as they identify and refine the mix of  partnership skills needed to support their 2020 efforts. For example,  Bureau officials acknowledged the need to more effectively use USAJobs,  the federal recruiting website, and targeted job announcements. They  also identified the possibility of hiring additional partnership staff for short- term assignments closer to census day to help meet specific needs, such  as assisting with non-English language enumeration and connecting with  faith-based or immigrant communities in areas with low participation.  Following through on its plans to identify an optimal mix of skill-sets and  tailored recruiting strategies, in accordance with leading practices, will be  important for the Bureau as it operates in a tight labor market because  delays or shortfalls in hiring partnership staff could put the Bureau’s plans  for building support for the census at risk.

As the Bureau has decided to rely more heavily on partnership specialists  as part of its outreach and promotion strategy to reach hard-to-count  groups and still faces decisions about where to staff them, it has done so  without the benefit of data on its actual hiring of partnership staff from the  2010 Census. During our review, the Bureau was unable to readily  provide us with data on the actual number or timing of partnership  specialists and assistants hired to support the 2010 Census, and instead,  we had to use detailed Bureau planning documents for our analysis.  Bureau officials reported that their records in 2010 did not clearly link the  positions and grades recorded in the payroll system for individual staff  who were hired to support a different operation to the roles they  subsequently played in carrying out the partnership efforts.

Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government state that  management should use quality information to achieve the entity’s  objectives. Bureau officials recognize the importance of having such  data readily available both for evaluating implemented efforts and for  future planning, and said they will take steps to better record these types  of data for the 2020 Census. Doing so will better position the Bureau to  evaluate the effectiveness of its hiring strategy and tradeoffs in alternative  approaches, to learn lessons from the 2020 implementation, and to  optimize related staffing strategies in the future.

Much of the Bureau’s planning efforts to help address the longstanding  challenge of enumerating hard-to-count groups in the 2020 Census are  underway. Importantly, the various operations and initiatives related to the  hard-to-count are either in the planning or early implementation stages.  While the Bureau has taken some steps to better understand the scope of  these efforts, going forward, it will be important for the Bureau to ensure  that management maintains a focus on forthcoming changes and  decisions on hard-to-count related efforts to ensure they are integrated  with other hard-to-count related efforts across the Bureau’s decentralized operations. Doing so will help the Bureau identify possible synergies,  interdependencies, or gaps specific to how they might affect the Bureau’s  ability to improve the census and help address overall risk to related  efforts.

In addition, information about related efforts in prior censuses can help  inform management and its ongoing planning. However, the Bureau’s  lack of complete and reliable data on hiring partnership staff for the 2010  Census—such as numbers, dates, and positions filled—affects its ability  to fully consider tradeoffs it is making among types of staff it plans to hire  for the 2020 Census. As the Bureau continues to ramp up its hiring of  partnership specialists and other staff to support enumeration of the hard- to-count, improved recording of hiring numbers, dates, and positions  filled—particularly for staff supporting multiple operations—can help  position the Bureau to evaluate the effectiveness of its hiring strategy and  support efforts to optimize any related hiring in future censuses.

We are making the following two recommendations to the Department of  Commerce and the Census Bureau:

The Secretary of Commerce should ensure the Director of the U.S.

Census Bureau takes steps to ensure that forthcoming changes and  decisions on hard-to-count related efforts are integrated with other  hard-to-count related efforts across the Bureau’s decentralized  operations. (Recommendation 1)

Census Bureau takes steps to ensure for the purposes of evaluation  and future planning that information is recorded and available on  partnership hiring numbers, dates, positions filled, and in support of  what part of the 2020 Census. (Recommendation 2)

We provided a draft of this report to the Department of Commerce. In its  written comments, reproduced in appendix I the Department of  Commerce agreed with our findings and recommendations and said it  would develop an action plan to address them. The Census Bureau also  provided technical comments that we incorporated, as appropriate.

As agreed with your offices, unless you publicly announce the contents of  this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days from the  report date. At that time, we will send copies of this report to the  Secretary of Commerce, the Undersecretary of Economic Affairs, the  Acting Director of the U.S. Census Bureau, and the appropriate  congressional committees. In addition, the report will be available at no  charge on the GAO website at https://www.gao.gov.

If you or your staff have any questions about this report, please contact  me at (202) 512-2757 or goldenkoffr@gao.gov. Contact points for our  Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on  the last page of this report. The GAO staff that made major contributions  to this report are listed in appendix II.

Appendix I: Comments from the Department of Commerce

Appendix II: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments

Robert Goldenkoff, (202) 512-2757 or goldenkoffr@gao.gov.

In addition to the contact named above, Ty Mitchell, Assistant Director;  Chris Falcone, Analyst-in-Charge; Mark Abraham, Ann Czapiewski, Kayla  Robinson, Cynthia Saunders, and Stewart Small made key contributions  to this report.

For the 2020 Census, the Census Bureau is planning to increase its efforts to include hard-to-count groups, such as minorities, renters, and young children. It is adding more language choices for its materials, hiring more people for outreach in local communities, and hiring earlier.

Still, the Bureau faces challenges such as integrating its outreach and promotion activities across its many different operations, and a tighter labor market that could make hiring people with key skills more difficult.

We recommended the Bureau take steps to ensure changes in its efforts are incorporated across its operations, and collect detailed hiring data.