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Putin is in for the long game. Throwing his citizens into the fodder machine as long as it takes, while counting on NATO and other countries arguing and discussing amongst themselves the best way and procedures to go about things while Ukrainians die.
People should believe the experts this time. Russia has been preparing for another major offensive. They know they need to do this soon before the western weapon shipments arrive and the Ukrainians are trained to use them. 
It will likely be Russia and Belarus this time though. >

lukashenko knows he will lose his grasp on the country if he  attacks Ukraine.