>

The Fed is working on making it happen. So, coming?
As soon as the election ended, Republicans stopped pretending we were in the new great  depression. 
Aka it was just a gop talking point >

It was this election's "Migrant Caravans"! >

I thought it was “Crime Wave!!” >

We almost eclipsed the 50 year low, it's out of control! >

Facts? Sounds like liberal propaganda to me >

Something something something Chicago something something >

Cities burned to the ground. >

Sitting here at my office, with 30-some colleagues, gazing in wild wonder at the scene outside, sheltering ourselves from the torrent of ash and smoke swirling about outside, I realize... oh wait, that's just snow. >

That got a chortle out of me. Thank you. >

Back in the heads of wealthy business owners that were pushing it since the day Democrats won a trifecta. 
Their buddies are leading the circus in Congress now, can't have them look bad! >

Fox says it’s still coming >

By gosh they'll push that narrative until it causes it to happen. >

Bankers say it'll maybe possibly happen sometime in the next months.
I feel certain they know because they look nice and wear suits. Authority figures ya know. All-knowing all-powerful gods. /s >

Plus they kinda have their hands on the levers, right? So they start tightening the credit market, start denying mortgages and playing games with other peoples money, and as people start losing their jobs and have to sell their assets the corporations who are sitting on large piles of cash are there to buy up all the assets at discount prices, then when the economy comes back, they now have an even bigger pile of money... >

Into rich people’s bank accounts >

Republican pollsters realized "border crisis" trended better than "recession". >

Yeah, the border crisis where Biden has stopped more illegal crossings in a year than Trump did in his whole term. Then when you point that out to Republicans, somehow Biden is just benefiting from Trump's "strong border security." Which is it?! Is it a disaster or all thanks to Trump? >

Just like the Afghanistan withdrawal 
GOP: BIDEN SHOULDN'T HAVE WITHDRAWN
Everyone: It started under Trump
GOP: THE WITHDRAWL IS PERFECT. >

My FIL was convinced we would have a massive crash at the start of the year. He also predicted Ukraine would surrender after 3 weeks and all the leader would run away...
Nostrodomus he is not >

Did he also prep for the nuclear winter that was supposed to be Y2K? >

I assume based on how many guns and cans of food they have.
Made my SIL get a bunch of money out last week because the banks are gonna collapse too. >

But let me guess: he doesn't think Covid is a big deal. >

Bioengineered.
Oh and Monsantohas created super weeds that no pesticides can kill except their new one (ignoring the years of people saying this would happen).
Listing it out makes him seem even more unstable >

I dunno, if you still listen to one party in this country, we're in the depths of a communist hellscape and the sun will never shine again. >

And that party's solution to getting out of it is to ban abortion, gay marriage and critical race theory ideally nation wide, and stop this renewal energy nonsense, all the country needs is more oil guys >

the recession is in a bit of a recession right now >

There was technically 2 consecutive quarters of decreasing GDP, but there weren't any other recession indicators other than those. And 2 quarters of growth followed which completely offset those 2 quarters of shrinking.
It really doesn't make sense to say the 2022 recession when the economy grew in 2022. >

2 consecutive quarters of decreasing gdp isn’t an indicator of recession, it is the literal definition of recession. >

No, it’s a common indicator and rule of thumb. The whole idea of a rule of thumb is that it’s an estimation, not necessarily the right or “literal” answer precisely. 
The NBER decides what is and isn’t a recession, and they have done so for decades. >

It’s in the dictionary definition of recession man, yeah the nber has the final say on what’s reported by the AP, but an economic term has to have a definition other than ‘whenever the nber decides the economy is really bad’ >

Record low unemployment enters the chat. >

Recession? My dear low caste Americans, this is a robbery. Recessions are when everyone suffers more. >

Everyone you say... >

Thanks Biden! >

For lieng about the state of the economy ? >

Haha no. For preventing the recession that would have happened had Trump and the Republicans retained power. >

GOP is still busting their asses trying to make it happen. >

Recessions mean big money for large corporations. Every recession takes money from the poor, middle class and small businesses, and gives it to large corporations. Why wouldn't the rich want a recession every 5-8 years. >

So, every day? >

Need to have a cycle to make the money back to crash it again. When things are good they start to accumulate a pile of cash, then when you have to sell off all your assets to survive, they swoop in with their cash and buy it. Then the market recovers and they once again can have an even larger pile of cash, ready for things to go south again. >

Yep. Look at the housing market with all the houses being bought up, not by individuals, but corporations. Make rent and house costs go through the roof. >

Yup. They want a world in which the 99% owns nothing and rents everything. The better to control us with. >

Subscription model. >

It’s a slow burn.
In Q4 consumer savings plummeted, and debt skyrocketed.
This will start reflecting in consumer decisions in Q1 and Q2. >

Personal debt has been rising since Donald Trump took office, so that’s a pretty slow burn. Most of that debt is related to housing. Personal savings spiked during COVID and is returning to more typical levels. >

I agree, but entering Q4 savings were essentially double debts and that is now completely opposite.
Moving rapidly from consumers having more savings then debt to significantly more debt than savings will have tangible impact on consumer behavior/spending >

People need to understand for inflation to come down , jobs have to be lost.  The FED clearly states this. >

Where I take issue with observations pushing this line of thinking is it seems to see the only solution for keeping inflation low is to artificially suppress wages for decades on end. I feel like inflation is a heck of a lot more complex than that. Supply chain issues weren’t initially a result of wage growth, inflation in the energy sector isn’t a wage issue. >

Day after day you seeing talking heads on TV talking about an eminent crash of our economy. They are wrong 99.9% of the time, funny you never see a follow up with them admitting they were wrong. >

Or when they actively make things worse like Jim Cramer. He gave people some terrible ideas on his show right before the crash in 2008, gets called out about it by Jon Stewart, get his ass handed to him by Jon Stewart in an interview, still gives people terrible advice. >

I loved Jon Stewart for that, as for so many things >

It's coming: The Republicans are working overtime to ensure that Biden does not campaign with a healthy economy in 2024. >

Don’t worry, the next GOP president will trigger it. >

I think Q1 and Q2 of this year, is when you'll start seeing pullbacks in Jobs reports and others >

Yep, layoffs have just begun , big tech first. >

Yes, but how much of this is the tail wagging the dog? Wall Street and Tech CEOs see one FAANG laying people off, then they think every tech firm needs to follow suit. >

Also the tech sector is particularly sensitive to interest rates. It's not surprising you'd see a big impact there, but you can't assume other sectors will follow suit to the same extent. >

Except that I believe that a lot of CEOs are in a cultural and information bubble. They see one CEO doing something and they think they have to do it as well, or at lease they can cover their butts if they do what every other CEO is doing. I have a deep suspicion that many CEOs are not the geniuses people give them credit for being. >

Within a sector, yes. I was agreeing with you there. It's a lot less likely that Home Depot suddenly fires a bunch of cashiers or Ford fires a bunch of machinists just because they want to copy Microsoft and Google.
I'm sure it'll happen to some extent! But not to the point that it'll be a big wave, unless other individual sectors have their own actual reasons for layoffs. >

I agree, that sounds plausible >

There's going to be a recession, the issue is how big a recession it will be. The Biden Administration has done a lot to slow it down and minimize it, but lots of financial institutions are predicting one. >

Lots of financial institutions profit from economic fear. >

Yes, that's true. Some win, some lose. But recessions are kind of like a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the finance industry all acts like a recession is happening, then it is probably happening. >

This is not true, large financial institutions will tell you to not worry, and then they sell off all their assets when it is 100% mathematically certain there will be a recession.
Recessions usually have some kind of immediate cause, generally a significant amount of loans not repaid at once. Right now we have inflation that doesn’t show any effects on consumer spending habits. We as country at the time of me sending me sending this, are at record low unemployment rate,dispute an entire year of these same financial institutions making the same claim. >

It never existed in the first place... >

Must be nice having enough money to be completely insulated from reality. >

Recession is different than high inflation.  Everyone has a job right now, if you get laid off there are plenty to choose from.  It's very hard to have a recession with that in mind. >

Think about it.
Inflation was up due to corporate greed (by the numbers, profits went up as inflation went up, so this is not an opinion). 
Wages went up because increased economic activity demanded more labor.
Corporations saw a threat to their new higher profit margins. So they did what they always do to protect profits - cut labor. It's not a successful strategy in the long term but if ALL corporations do it at the same time, then you get a nice effect where people can't actually shop around and no one company is at a disadvantage. The increases in wages are stemmed and the trend of diverging labor and wealth persists.
It's an artificial recession caused by corporations acting without regulation. It's really that simple. >


recession caused by corporations acting without regulation. It's really that simple.

Yes, Yes and Yes! Many of these companies are just laying off people to show other companies that hiring is at a stand still. When multiple large companies do it around the same time, it makes employees who are still working at those companies stop asking for more money. >

We laid off a whole team a month ago. Their replacements got hired this week lol. 
The layoffs are a desperate attempt to suppress wages that increased during pandemic when over a million people in US retired or otherwise left labor market. >

That is the main reason. The higher wage earners get canned, then they hire new people at reduced salaries. Desperate people take what they can get so that they don't lose their homes and their families can eat. >

It just didn't materialize, because it was bunk. Created as a talking point, an outrage-generator, a panic point, a reason to vote for Trump or vote against Biden. It vaporized like the weapons of mass destruction, the death panels, obamas mass gun confiscation, migrant caravans and the gas price fiasco.
When they gonna learn? (They won't). >

It was never real! I've been saying since this time last year that Wall Street and corporations are just churning up "bad vibes" to trigger a recession. All these price gouges and lay offs are happening for the "imminent recession" that conservatives have been harping on since Biden was elected. And what changed? Nothing. It's the same national fiscal policy. It's like how the "I did that" stickers showed up on gas pumps in February 2021.
That said, it's all like screaming at a wall to these people. I was just in a conservative thread where they were all blaming inflation on 'socialism' and '$15 minimum wage.' Neither of these things happened! They all think Biden is STILL sending checks to "keep people at home." They hiss and whine about the national debt (and somehow thing that also caused inflation), conveniently forgetting that Trump added a whopping 35% to it. Half the country lives in an alternate reality. >


Half the country lives in an alternate reality.

They hate gays, minorities, and believe women belong in the kitchen.  They have to make up excuses on every other issue or they would have to admit they are voting against their self interest.  By far the most important thing for them is their unmovable belief that Republican = Christian. >

In went to the same place the Mexican invasion went to. >

Oh it's coming, the Fed is going to everything they can to ensure that it does. 
It's hilarious to me that so many right wingers are "end the Fed" people because the Federal Reserve has been playing favorites with conservatives for decades. And they still complain. >

GOP smoke and mirrors. >

Never ever ever ever bet against America >

It’s almost as if wealthy business owners who happen to be mostly republican manufactured it as a scare tactic to influence the election… >

wish casting by the republicans and media >

It’s in the heads of every billionaire and millionaire CEO in America. >

I think it's still coming considering all the recent tech layoffs, I think worse things are coming. >

It will be a fabricated recession if it happens. All of the tech giants laying off people are still making record profits. >

Most economic forecasters are anticipating pain this year. The impact of rising interest rates hasn’t been fully felt yet, but it will when more people are forced to renew their mortgages over the next year.
The competing factor against the recession is continued improvement in supply lines which should help to curb inflation in addition to the governments monetary policy changes. But right now, I wouldn’t bet on there not being a recession later this year. Some early indicators are the mass layoffs were already seeing in some sectors like big tech. >


but it will when more people are forced to renew their mortgages over the next year.

Renew a mortgage? >

The recession was avoided by the contractionary fiscal policy by the federal reserve. Narrowly, I might add. It only had a 30% chance of success according to analysts, but it worked. We barely avoided a recession. Republicans are now seeking to cause a global recession with their posturing on the U.S. debt ceiling. >

By definition, I believe recessions are two quarters of negative growth. Right now a ton of corporations are making bank so yeah it hasn't come.
That said I think it is going to come. Wages aren't rising while inflation is still very much a thing. The industry I am in is reeling from declining sales, I can't speak to other ones but I think there's a chance layoffs are coming. 
The next 6 months could be pretty bad. >

That has never been the definition of a recession.  That is one part of a rule of thumb trying to describe what the definition of recession means in practical terms.  The other two parts talk about GNP and unemployment.  It is something an economist wrote in a newspaper article 50 years ago because the actual definition of a recession in the US is too abstract. >

Winter is coming >

I think it's more like we've been in a recession for about 20 years, but the stock market is okay, so none of the talking heads are making hash out of it.
I do still think the bubble's on the verge of burst, but investment banks have so much cash right now that nothing is straight up falling apart. >

A recession is coming though.  All financial indications to a drawback of financial projects of individual companies, pretty much economy wide is happening.  2023 will have maybe an 8 month recession, stocks will drop maybe around another 24% and then the bull market will begin to catch some wind.  I believe 2023 will be a great opportunity to get into the market around June. >

The S&P already fell 25% in mid October. Stocks as a whole in the US widely stopped making new lows in June. Global stocks are rallying and analysts are no longer calling for recessions globally. Many people are still claiming the US will have one but JPM just essentially rescinded their call this week. Everyone and their mom was/is calling for recession, which IMO, means it’s unlikely. None of the previous 3 recessions were predicted with any amount of consensus. They typically catch us by surprise. If all of these execs have “known” there was a recession coming for the past 3 quarters you would think they’ve prepared and the impact wouldn’t be so severe. 
Without a massive unemployment hike, earnings will not suffer that much, meaning a major slow down or slight recession was already priced in. Bond and equity markets typically turn well before the economy. Without some sort of black swan, October was the bottom and markets will likely have a solid year. Credit markets are not signaling really any inordinate amount of stress and have recovered nicely from June. 
All of these leading indicators signaling recession would hold their weight if we weren’t coming off of ridiculously high nominal GDP growth. They’re signaling a slowdown, but not necessarily a contraction. Real wages just turned positive again for the first time in over a year. Inflation is coming down fast and with real time rent metrics, we’re already around the FEDs target. Only ego or foolishness would lead Powell to hike more than 25-50 bps over the next two meetings. >

It never left. >

There was a recession?