>

So the real talk then, how are the current guys chances of winning again?
Erdogan is a constrained tyrant. The tail will wag the dog, if he's faced with the possibility of losing power. >

unless he can find something domestic to fight I'm not sure how he does that  
he can't fight NATO since all his power comes with being the fringest member of nato, and if he attacks somewhere east he just alienates the other side he relies on. >

Eh, he could always start another "antiterrorism" campaign to reduce the Kurdish population in eastern Turkey, that's usually a pretty popular move! >

Or do another pretend coup d’etat >

This is the most likely direction IMO. >

Yep worked for him once. >

Seems risky to light a match when there is a lot of flammable debris around. >


Seems risky to light a match when there is a lot of flammable debris around.

you're underestimating how stupid the average person is
i love democracy, but it absolutely allows idiots who are dumb as rocks to make very damaging political decisions swayed by emotional rather than logical reasons. It's the same reason the U.S. got stuck with Trump for four years even though he was woefully unqualified to be president >

"The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with an average voter." >

"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others." >

That's some hope at the end of a very dark tunnel.
Will the citizens fight for a brighter future, though? >

Hopefully they won't have to fight, just show up to vote. >

That has never been the issue.

The voter turnout for the average of 18 parliamentary election is 81.4%; of the local elections is 78.7% and of the referendums is 83.1%. >

I'd be curious to the validity of that data, if it's coming from Erdogan's government reporting.. >

Voting is mandatory in Turkey, and you have to pay a fine of some sort if you don’t show up; so the majority of the country does vote, but that doesn’t mean they all have concrete political opinions. >

But isn't it true that Turks can also vote from abroad by post, and Erdoğan gets a huge amount of support from Turks living elsewhere? The very ones that don't have to live under his rule anymore keep helping to put him back in >

Yes you’re definitely correct, that is also a major factor in his base of support.
Which is wild because any abroad living Turk I’ve met HATES Erdoğan, but these are all young progressive people, so I imagine the support comes from the older traditional crowd. >

I can’t confirm that second statement. There are quite some 50+ year old, who root for him. I‘ve seen pictures of him on the wall in the back of small Turkish shops in Germany. I can’t tell if it would be a majority, but it seems to be a thing at least. >

Live in berlin, can partly confirm - some turkish immigrants love him, others loathe him, none are in between.
It has much to do with the origin of the person in question... were they originally more educated, secular and urban? They tend to hate him... instead those from rural conservative areas of the country form his base. >


Erdogan has developed increasingly close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin while tightening social freedoms and flouting European court rulings

Fuckin guy is a tyrant. Türkiye should be proud to have kept the possibility to vote this wannabe dictator out. The longer he stays in power the more likely voting him out will no longer be an option. That would be a damn shame. >

I wonder if he might try to pull a Trump if he actually loses. >

Given Brazil did it, and those things are so heavily promoted by anti-NATO/West entities (and yes, this includes conservative media) it almost certainly will happen. >

He's already had his chance to purge the military of non yes men too. >

Those non-yes men previously purged secularists in the army. >

Few people know that aside from America, Turkey was one of a very few countries on earth with a true separation of church and state in law, if not entirely in practice, and that idiot Erdrogan took it away. >

He's been committed to ruining the legacy of one of the greatest men to ever live; Mustafa Kemal. Absolute embarrassment of a man. I hope Turkey can remove him and get back on the right path. >

Not to mention Ataturk is rolling in his grave and spitting on Erdogans name. >

The problem is that Turks love a "Strongman" ever since Ataturk. That's the dynamic that Erdogan plays on. >

Turks don’t gaf about “strongman” players.
They love backgammon, tea, and telling Greeks that everything they have is actually of Turkish origin.
Everything else is just an asshole (Erdogan) who is abusing power as much as humanly possible with the support of hyper rich (saudis) nations who are willing and able to buy influence. >


Turks don’t gaf about “strongman” players.

I don't comment in these posts often but I've had too much raki to pass on this comment. People here sure do love a populist "leader". So, yes they do give a fuck about "strongman". Fortunately, there is another "strongman" in the horizon. >

Yeah, saying people don't care about him is trying to avoid taking any blame for his regime. The "Strongman" persona is popular to some extent all over the world, it's a trap most, if not all, countries can fall into. Turkey has Erdogan, Russia has Putin, the US had Trump, Italy had Berlusconi etc. etc.
They're not all exactly the same, of course, and some have done a lot more damage than others, but the image of the 'strong, independent leader who has easy solutions to society's biggest problems' is ensnaring for many people and always has been. Especially when times are bad and people a desperate.
It's a tired example, but Hitler was exactly this type of character and was for years widely respected, also outside Germany's borders, before the war started and the atrocities really came to light. >

Exactly, people usually comment without acknowledging the causes. To be completely honest, before the 2002 elections Turkey was in a serious economic crisis and Islamists was legitimately oppressed mainly because of the coup in the '80 and the leading events that tracks to late 90s. So, he got elected with 34%. In the following years thanks (his thanks) to IMF audits and some islamic reforms he appeared as a savior and solidified his position, so we are at this point now. Of course this is a very simplified version of recent Turkish politics, so take it with a grain of salt. >

God dammit. Another countries brief political history rabbit hole, only to not be satiated by the depth of the content. 
This shit is happening so often, It’s literally pushing me to pursue a degree political history or some shit. If you ever want to have your jaw on the floor, start reading any fucking countries political history. >

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 87%. (I'm a bot)


Ankara - Turkey's opposition vowed on Monday to undo President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's two-decade legacy of Islamic-rooted rule and expand democratic freedoms if they take power in crucial May 14 elections.
The six parties united against Erdogan also pledged to decide on February 13 on a joint candidate in the presidential vote - widely seen as Turkey's most consequential in generations.
The opposition's programme was unveiled at a ceremony attended by cheering crowds eager to reverse Erdogan's transformation of Turkey into a more religiously conservative state.


Extended Summary | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: Erdogan^#1 Turkey^#2 opposition^#3 President^#4 rule^#5 >

Do the turks like erdogan? What's the local sentiment towards him? >

%30 of voters are erdogan fan boys. last elections was 51 to 49. New elections is the first election after huge economic crisis so pols says they wont get more than %35 >

Also there are around 10mil new voters (gen z) who dislike erdogans regime. Thats roughly 1/10 of the population >

Do they vote? Cause in my country (Greece) that demographic had a terrible turnout last elections. >

Voting is mandatory in Turkey >

In theory the same is true in Greece, but it has never been enforced. >

Same in turkey it has nearly never been enforced here too. But it is still over %80 here since a lot of individuals are into politics and economics here since they have to. >

Nice, sounds like a government that has a plan to drag Turkey heading towards the dark ages and bring them back to the modern world.  Would be good for the country.
No space for this authoritarian rule and Draconian bullshit amongst today's society >

Especially in NATO. >

I don't understand why people have this idea that NATO is some vanguard of democracy. It's a military alliance for mutual benefit. Greece and Portugal were NATO members while being governed by dictatorships. Turkey is a valuable member for military reasons. Its internal politics are irrelevant. >

Despite its problems, nato has been the backbone of the lasting peace we have enjoyed in Europe, and one of the most benevolent military alliances in history. We cannot pretend that Nato is somehow just the same as the Warsaw pact was or the current Russian sphere of influence >

I think you have a very rosy view of NATO, which it doesn't deserve. At the end of the day it's a realpolitik thing. >

Of course, at the end of the day it’s real Politik and yeah, Nato is not perfect but it’s just doesn’t seem true to compare Nato and its adversaries as equally bad >

well gl i guess. i hope u got fair elections... >

Erdogan said who holds Istanbul holds Turkey.
He then lost the Istanbul elections just by a few percent, got a court decision to rerun it and lost again by an even bigger margin. >

Imagine Turkey, Hungary and Poland became liberal secular functioning democracies. How much better would EU and NATO be. >

Slovakia might just join them after the next elections. The far right is on the rise here. I hope I'm wrong. >

We'll see if big bro Czechia influences them with recent election >

As far as I understand it, one of the main dividing factors between Czechs and Slovaks is that the latter are significantly more conservative on average. >

Same everywhere. Rural, less educated, poorer tend conservative. >

would be huge to see another dictator fall