>

Sure.
I would say it’s serial disenfranchisement and for several decades, life has gotten worse for the poorest (much of it under corrupt/damaging GOP policies at their state level). Young white males, specifically those without a college degree and poor future prospects, see conservatism as a harkening back to a time when their old man (or grandpa) got away with having zero education, and still were able to raise a family on one income, maybe even take modest vacations by car, in summary - they could fulfill the role of a patriarchal head of household and feel good about themselves at the end of the week with a little money in the bank.
Unfortunately, that ship has sailed. Both the GOP and corporate dems have promoted corporations and billionaires above any one regular man or woman. The poorest doing collegeless work took the kick in the mouth hardest — farms folded, factories outsourced. 
Outside of the trades or a specific skill you do well (which can all be extremely lucrative), you really don’t want to be looking for work in corporate America without a degree these days. Conservatism is mostly an empty promise that “things will go back to how they were!” Whether that’s control over a woman’s uterus or the white dude gets the job first 😔. 
Conservatives should learn faster that the only real guarantee in life is, everything changes always. The “flavor of the month” for several centuries was being a straight, Christian, white dude - college entirely optional. Today though, if you’re a mixed race kid with a degree, the world is your oyster… and that really drives the straight/white/males crazy and deeply into conservatism. 
They want to be in a world where Hannity and Tucker are the top dogs. Ironically, the white male patriarchy still controls some 97% of Fortune 500 companies. But tell a kid that growing up in Nowhere, Ohio with no prospects - he’s not going to be the next CEO of UPS or Procter & Gamble without a degree and an MBA… and more than likely, these days it’s an immigrant from India who worked his/her ass off and earned 3 degrees and has worked at 7 different fortune 100s. And nothing pisses off a collegeless white male more than that.
The only thing is, there’s less Christian whites born every year. It’s too expensive to afford having families of 5 or 6 where no one is educated. It’s a life sentence to poverty. Hence hispanic families grow larger, because it’s a collectivist culture - often with pooled wages to cover expenses. That kind of “family clan” structure is largely unheard of in white/black American communities.
As far as Roe v Wade goes, I think it’s a last gasp, yes. Stolen courts, by the skin of their teeth, they pulled it off. People in general are less religious than they’ve ever been in the last 50 years. Church attendance has been dwindling for years. And while it’s true people skew a little more religious as they get closer to death, that assumes they’ve had good fortune and a god to thank - which isn’t happening as much for those born after 1980 as it did for those born before 1960.
I’m a progressive Jew from the northeast. We aren’t rich, but my daughter has expressed an interest in becoming a doctor one day. Long as she has that passion and has the grades, there’s no doubt in my mind she’ll hold an MD or DO one day. It’s not even a question. We value education and family above all. A lot of conservative whites cannot make either claim.
I do think other candidates will appear that also have a chance of winning the primary. Too early to be spending their money  and time on the primary campaign. >


The GOP must know that Ron DeSantis is the only candidate who can beat Trump.

I think it's actually the opposite:  DeSantis is more vulnerable to running against Trump than anyone in the field.
There just isn't anyone else who might run who has anything like this level of frankly embarrassing worship of Trump out there -- and for DeSantis, that's just the tip of the iceberg.  You probably could make something longer than the Lord of the Rings trilogy extended cut that's different ads and speeches with DeSantis talking about how Trump is basically Jesus.
How can you run against Trump as that guy and beat him?  You can't.  Not unless the party of loyalty over competence suddenly ditches that belief somehow.  DeSantis decided to make his brand be all about loyalty to Trump to get his career going.  The price of that devil's bargain is that he cannot run unless or until Trump decides he won't. >

The one thing DeSantis has that he can use to outflank Trump is his anti-vaccine stance. Even though he hadn’t historically being anti-vaxx, he has seen the writing on the wall. Trump promotes the COVID vaccines, while emphasizing that people should be free to choose — and he STILL gets booed. >

It's not a given that DeSantis and Trump will come up against each other in a Republican primary, but if they do... there's just no way Trump lets that contest be about issues or policy.  That's not how he rolls.
I'm not a fan of his, but it's hard to deny that Trump is super good at controlling a debate stage and/or a narrative.  I don't think DeSantis really has those skills.  He looks like a strong candidate right up until he actually has to spar with someone and that gets ugly for him fast. >

DeSantis has yet to run for a national office,  what rolls in craycray land may not work nation wide.
De.Santis has scandals aplenty, they just don’t get talked about much outside the state of Florida.  How well opposition picks him apart in primary might be fun to eat popcorn to. >

Genuinely asking because I'm not super familiar with Florida politics, what are some of DeSantis's scandals? >

The “don’t say gay”, “anti woke education” is purely Ron. >

Yea but the problem is that half the country don't view those as scandals, just policy. I'm curious if there's anything surrounding Desantis that would paint him as corrupt or untrustworthy to GOP voters the way there were plenty surrounding Trump. >

Not as much, we’re dealing with a much shorter rap sheet — to your point, some think that’s a-ok even though it’s outright hateful. >

Trump owns a minimum of 10% of the republican base. They did not vote before him and they won’t vote for anyone who ‘defeats’ him because they will not believe that any Trump opponent could win a fair contest. 
At a time when swing states are won by razor thin margins, how many Trump supporters can the GOP afford to lose? >

All of them? If they remain connected to a psychopathic moron who will probably serve time for treason and sedition, they'll lose way too many sane people to ever recover. >

The rise of Trumpism can really only be understood in the context of 2016, and it’s quite simple: a lot of independent voters didn’t want Hillary, and Trump was a brash new face offering something completely new (ie, to burn down everything).
That is why Trump won the one election that Trumpism actually carried.  He isn’t the vanguard of a great new conservative moment that is still growing; Trumpism peaked on 11/4/16 and it’s been in slow decline ever since.  Trump has also fractured the Republican Party and caused it serious long-term damage.
So will the party unite around the guy who is making a pretense at being Trump II?
The Democrats should be so lucky!  DeSantis has tried to make himself a Trump clone without the baggage, but he’s still a Trumpist.  That means no ideas, no ideology, no platform.  Just “Libruls are bad”.
I still think there is a good chance Trump will be indicted/convicted over his role in the insurrection, and if that happens, the Republican Party will be grasping for someone who isn’t Trump, because the party higher-ups and big doners want someone who can win.  The only thing Ron DeSantis can win is the Republican primary and everyone knows it.  He’s not going to re-start the flame of Trumpism and be able to put Michigan and Pennsylvania into the Republican column in 2024 (unless the Dems nominate Hillary).  So I suspect there will be strong pressure to unite around Haley or Rubio or Younkin, using Cruz and Trump to siphon off votes from DeSantis.  That is the path to a candidate that can beat the Dem nominee, not nominating DeSantis. >

Rubio wins because Miami’s Cubans vote for him on surname alone. He’s a milquetoast politician who can’t handle himself on a stage. He got eviscerated by high schoolers after Stoneman Douglas. Booed off the stage. >

For Trump not to win the nomination means that the party sees itself going in another direction.  DeSantis would not be that choice.  I see him more as being forced to take a backseat to Trump (possible VP) if the GOP continues in this way.  Perhaps the speaker votes illustrate an opportunity for a more political and less emotional choice. >

Imagine being offered a VP position from someone who tried to get his fans to kill his last VP... >

Strategically Trump is better off leaving the VP seat vacant. >

I honestly think that there are a lot more GOP candidates that could beat Trump than DeSantis. 
In fact, I’ll go a step further and say that DeSantis’s consistent imitation of Trump, lack of charisma and irritating affectation will lead to him only declining in popularity as the primary progresses.
When you think about it, the frontrunner a year out into the primary rarely makes it to the general. There’s a long time between now and February of 2024. A lot can happen. >

Could you give an example of desantis imitating trump? >

He copies Trump’s mannerisms, suits and speaking style. If you watch him speak, you’ll notice he does the exact same body shifts that Trump does while speaking. It’s really bizarre. >

a majority of Republicans are against Trump
I'd like to see that poll. Trump didn't win because of what Ted or Marco or any of the others did or didn't do. He won because he was giving a full-throated defense of a social order Republican voters feel is slipping away, a world in which white men control everything, white women below, people of color and the LGBTQ folks at the bottom. His appeal was, and is, open racism, misogyny and homophobia. The Republican base hasn't changed.
Two scenarios. First, Trump wins the nomination, then goes on to spectacular defeat in the general. Second, Trump loses the nomination, then spends the next six months tearing down the person who beat him who goes on to lose spectacularly in the general. >


a majority of Republicans are against Trump

You won't find that poll because it's not true. He has like 85% approval from Republicans. >

There are more MAGA republicans in the house then moderates and a lot if not all are election deniers.  The Moderates know if they get behind Desantis they will piss off the MAGA crowed.  The GOP is in a screwy situation of their own making.  I’m still betting on Trump running 3rd party just to watch the GOP burn. >

The Maga crowd is already against trump since he endorsed McCarthy >

Trump still has more power over the Republican Party than anyone else.  They would love to ditch Trump and go all in on DeSantis. Trump is toxic and I'm sure a huge pain in the ass for them. However, if DeSantis wins the nomination we could see Trump run independent and try to destroy the Republican Party's chances of winning by splitting the vote. With all the legal in issues piling up for Trump he wants that immunity that becoming President gives you. It is also a fantastic grift and opportunity for Trump to milk his supporters for money. We all know he loves that. If he can even run.....he has a lot of legal problems. 
No way he gets behind DeSantis. This could tear  the Republican Party apart and they deserve it. They have become an Authoritarian Movement that can't win elections and seems to think pushing unpopular policies on all Americans is the way to go. 
Fingers crossed that DeSantis wins and Trump runs as aj independent. If either of them win the Presidency, it's not going to be good for the US or the World. >

Donald isn’t going away quietly if he loses. Accusations of cheating. Contested convention, protestors. Lawsuits against the RNC and the candidate etc etc.
Donald still Commands a sizeable amount of the we that nobody can win a national election without. My neighbors have had trump flags up in their windows for going on 6 years. >

It's way early...mine and most peoples' political predictions, since Obama, have been terribly wrong. >

I saw Trump’s loss months in the future because of how he mishandled Covid. 
Had he shut up and supported the scientists and docs, he wouldn’t have indirectly killed 75,000 of his right wing supporters, which is what he needed to win re-election. The man almost died himself. Had he become infected in April instead of October, Pence would have finished the term. >

Every individual involved here will do what is in their selfish best interests. Why would any of them stick their necks out? To help the country? Screw that, they never cared about that. To help the party? The only reason they like the party is that it helps them.
None of these Republicans will stand up to Trump unless it is in their personal best interest to do so. >

Nah, because nationally DeSantis may be as unelectable as Trump. You’ll definitely see some more sensible-ish candidates, and Cruz, Rubio, etc. >

Why would he as unelectable as trump? >

Negative Partisanship. Both of them scare more liberal leaning voters enough to vote for the Democratic candidate when they might otherwise stay home.
Typically, Democratic turnout fluctuates heavily depending on candidate, whereas Republican turnout is more consistent. Biden got elected despite kind of a lukewarm reception from the Democratic base as a result of Trump actively scaring liberal voters.
Ron DeSantis comes off as essentially a more intelligent version of Trump to left leaning voters. That makes him worse from a negative partisanship angle because most people would prefer a bungling idiot trying to do things they don't want to a competent figure actually accomplishing those things. >

Desantis may rule up the left but he doesn’t rule up the independents like Trump did. >

Indeed, he's quite popular with Independents and even does well with Moderate Democrats. >

Does well with Moderate Democrats? I doubt that. Maybe with Moderate Republicans. >

It’s anecdotal, but one of my closest friends from college lives down the street from me in swfl. He’s one of the more liberal people I am friends with- not like AOC progressive, but definitely firmly Dem- and he voted for DeSantis in November. He’s just been a very good governor, has a high approval rating from his constituents, and most of the criticism of him has come from outside the state. >

Anecdotally I don't personally know any liberals that would vote for DeSantis. Most liberals I know view him as  another dangerous Republican with Authoritarian tendencies. >

Trump may lose to Desantis, but he will go down swinging, which will turn his core MAGA base against Desantis. 
There’s a solid chance if this happens, it’ll end with another democratic term because of GOP fragmentation. >

I think it’ll actually encourage more potential candidates. DeSantis and Trump might weaken each other since they both target the same crowd and allow a third candidate to win the nomination. >


This happened in 2016 and they must have learnt their lesson.
The only thing preventing this is that each potential GOP nominee has an ego and thinks they can win.
This is all dependent on whether potential nominees put party above personal ambition.

You pretty much answered your own question.
Not all of them aim to become president.  Some just want some time in the limelight, to increase their profile and maybe extract something.  Trump could fall into the latter category.  He has leverage because he could run as 3rd party or get some ally to do so.  A few % in key swing states can deny DeSantis the presidency.
So it seems negotiation skills and party pressure will be a big part of this.
Why have they not switched to ranked choice voting for their primary?  I understand states where MAGA have captured the state party but there should be at least some switching to RCV.  That should help produce a more moderate candidate. >

The base does not want a more moderate candidate. >

It's relative but it can help. >

I think DeSantis will sit this one out so he can have full support next time >

He’ll be out of the FL gov office for 2+ years in 2028. That’s enough for an entire nation to forget someone. You don’t remember who the governor of Florida was last time, if you don’t live there. 
If DeSantis doesn’t run in ‘24, or for senator to fire Scott in ‘26, he’s sitting fat wallet in a Dunedin law firm by ‘28, or a Fox News pundit — or both. >

I could absolutely see that happening after 4-6 candidates battle and attack each other for a while. >

Not until Trump completely embarrasses himself trying to bully Desantis in a debate. >

You might have missed the memo, RNC isn't debating. >

Let me say first: in this moment of political history that the United States has a not very interesting pool of politicians when it comes to the presidency. They’re just all too old. We need some fresh faces and right now those people don’t exist.
As for Trump and DeSantis. I do not buy that Trump in unpopular in the Republican Party. I don’t know how popular, but Donald Trump probably commands, easily, about 30% of the party. And not a “soft” 30%. Like a 30% that will show up every time through rain and snow, freezing or dry conditions for him.
Trump also likely has a lot of support from Evangelicals. He’s one of the key parts of getting Roe v Wade overturned. He, unquestioningly, follow every recommendation from the Christian part of the party. 
I cannot predict the future, because Donald Trump is one of the most unpredictable people in politics. He’s a force to be reckoned with and you should never, underestimate him. People laughed at this man… and then he took the Presidency, let’s not forget that.
I think the GoP needs to ask itself how it’s going to handle Trump. Because as it stands now… any Republican that goes against Trump is going to get bulldozed. Trump, is unshakable. He won’t back down.
So they either need to get someone who can be an effective “Anti-Trump” or someone who can “Out-Trump” Trump. No traditional politician will beat him.
If the GoP carry DeSantis to the Presidential election. If Trump runs 3rd candidate, the Democratic candidate will win. Hands down.
The GoP has sort of made this deal with the hard right and it has helped them, but exorcising them from the party will potentially kill the party.
But the last election was also a canary in the coal mine. The GoP were in position to sweep and that sweep never materialized. Almost every Trump style candidate was beaten and there’s a new generation of voters that are very progressive that the GoP isn’t able to speak to. Essentially the children of the 2008 Great Recession. People from this era are defined by the difficulties they faced then and continue to face.
It’s an interesting time to be in the US. The US is either on the brink of something terrifying or great. Maybe someone is going to step forward and offer something interesting, but until then… we need to navigate Trumpism. >

By 2040, boomers will be largely gone and 10 AOCs are born for every Ron DeSantis. My kid’s classroom in Ohio is 75% the children of immigrants. Her best friend is Japanese and the other is from England. 
More females have been born than males in every state for the last dozen years as well. The US will be 51% hispanic and 20% black by that time. Birth rates are 25% what they were in 1993. 
It’ll be an ultra liberal, near socialist vs a moderate democrat. It won’t be “is abortion allowed?” It’ll be “can we do it in a drive thru lane?” 
What was left of the GOP born after 1965 will be pot smoking libertarians, and much like a minority Whig party.
Broadly speaking, few born after 1980 have been richer or more successful than their parents at the same age. This will radically shift the country left. Healthcare especially being a privilege for the rich and career-employed will shatter like a lightning bolt. >

Mind if I pick your brain?
How would you respond to the tendency of young men, mostly uneducated and a good portion unemployed to support Conservative politics? Especially the more Trumpist politics.
Also, would you say overturning Roe V Wade was the last “push” of Boomer Conservatives and not a revival of more extreme religious conservatism?