>

Indeed, he's quite popular with Independents and even does well with Moderate Democrats.
I do think other candidates will appear that also have a chance of winning the primary. Too early to be spending their money  and time on the primary campaign. >


The GOP must know that Ron DeSantis is the only candidate who can beat Trump.

I think it's actually the opposite:  DeSantis is more vulnerable to running against Trump than anyone in the field.
There just isn't anyone else who might run who has anything like this level of frankly embarrassing worship of Trump out there -- and for DeSantis, that's just the tip of the iceberg.  You probably could make something longer than the Lord of the Rings trilogy extended cut that's different ads and speeches with DeSantis talking about how Trump is basically Jesus.
How can you run against Trump as that guy and beat him?  You can't.  Not unless the party of loyalty over competence suddenly ditches that belief somehow.  DeSantis decided to make his brand be all about loyalty to Trump to get his career going.  The price of that devil's bargain is that he cannot run unless or until Trump decides he won't. >

The one thing DeSantis has that he can use to outflank Trump is his anti-vaccine stance. Even though he hadn’t historically being anti-vaxx, he has seen the writing on the wall. Trump promotes the COVID vaccines, while emphasizing that people should be free to choose — and he STILL gets booed. >

It's not a given that DeSantis and Trump will come up against each other in a Republican primary, but if they do... there's just no way Trump lets that contest be about issues or policy.  That's not how he rolls.
I'm not a fan of his, but it's hard to deny that Trump is super good at controlling a debate stage and/or a narrative.  I don't think DeSantis really has those skills.  He looks like a strong candidate right up until he actually has to spar with someone and that gets ugly for him fast. >

DeSantis has yet to run for a national office,  what rolls in craycray land may not work nation wide.
De.Santis has scandals aplenty, they just don’t get talked about much outside the state of Florida.  How well opposition picks him apart in primary might be fun to eat popcorn to. >

Genuinely asking because I'm not super familiar with Florida politics, what are some of DeSantis's scandals? >

The “don’t say gay”, “anti woke education” is purely Ron. >

Yea but the problem is that half the country don't view those as scandals, just policy. I'm curious if there's anything surrounding Desantis that would paint him as corrupt or untrustworthy to GOP voters the way there were plenty surrounding Trump. >

Not as much, we’re dealing with a much shorter rap sheet — to your point, some think that’s a-ok even though it’s outright hateful. >

Trump owns a minimum of 10% of the republican base. They did not vote before him and they won’t vote for anyone who ‘defeats’ him because they will not believe that any Trump opponent could win a fair contest. 
At a time when swing states are won by razor thin margins, how many Trump supporters can the GOP afford to lose? >

All of them? If they remain connected to a psychopathic moron who will probably serve time for treason and sedition, they'll lose way too many sane people to ever recover. >

The rise of Trumpism can really only be understood in the context of 2016, and it’s quite simple: a lot of independent voters didn’t want Hillary, and Trump was a brash new face offering something completely new (ie, to burn down everything).
That is why Trump won the one election that Trumpism actually carried.  He isn’t the vanguard of a great new conservative moment that is still growing; Trumpism peaked on 11/4/16 and it’s been in slow decline ever since.  Trump has also fractured the Republican Party and caused it serious long-term damage.
So will the party unite around the guy who is making a pretense at being Trump II?
The Democrats should be so lucky!  DeSantis has tried to make himself a Trump clone without the baggage, but he’s still a Trumpist.  That means no ideas, no ideology, no platform.  Just “Libruls are bad”.
I still think there is a good chance Trump will be indicted/convicted over his role in the insurrection, and if that happens, the Republican Party will be grasping for someone who isn’t Trump, because the party higher-ups and big doners want someone who can win.  The only thing Ron DeSantis can win is the Republican primary and everyone knows it.  He’s not going to re-start the flame of Trumpism and be able to put Michigan and Pennsylvania into the Republican column in 2024 (unless the Dems nominate Hillary).  So I suspect there will be strong pressure to unite around Haley or Rubio or Younkin, using Cruz and Trump to siphon off votes from DeSantis.  That is the path to a candidate that can beat the Dem nominee, not nominating DeSantis. >

Rubio wins because Miami’s Cubans vote for him on surname alone. He’s a milquetoast politician who can’t handle himself on a stage. He got eviscerated by high schoolers after Stoneman Douglas. Booed off the stage. >

For Trump not to win the nomination means that the party sees itself going in another direction.  DeSantis would not be that choice.  I see him more as being forced to take a backseat to Trump (possible VP) if the GOP continues in this way.  Perhaps the speaker votes illustrate an opportunity for a more political and less emotional choice. >

Imagine being offered a VP position from someone who tried to get his fans to kill his last VP... >

Strategically Trump is better off leaving the VP seat vacant. >

I honestly think that there are a lot more GOP candidates that could beat Trump than DeSantis. 
In fact, I’ll go a step further and say that DeSantis’s consistent imitation of Trump, lack of charisma and irritating affectation will lead to him only declining in popularity as the primary progresses.
When you think about it, the frontrunner a year out into the primary rarely makes it to the general. There’s a long time between now and February of 2024. A lot can happen. >

Could you give an example of desantis imitating trump? >

He copies Trump’s mannerisms, suits and speaking style. If you watch him speak, you’ll notice he does the exact same body shifts that Trump does while speaking. It’s really bizarre. >

a majority of Republicans are against Trump
I'd like to see that poll. Trump didn't win because of what Ted or Marco or any of the others did or didn't do. He won because he was giving a full-throated defense of a social order Republican voters feel is slipping away, a world in which white men control everything, white women below, people of color and the LGBTQ folks at the bottom. His appeal was, and is, open racism, misogyny and homophobia. The Republican base hasn't changed.
Two scenarios. First, Trump wins the nomination, then goes on to spectacular defeat in the general. Second, Trump loses the nomination, then spends the next six months tearing down the person who beat him who goes on to lose spectacularly in the general. >


a majority of Republicans are against Trump

You won't find that poll because it's not true. He has like 85% approval from Republicans. >

There are more MAGA republicans in the house then moderates and a lot if not all are election deniers.  The Moderates know if they get behind Desantis they will piss off the MAGA crowed.  The GOP is in a screwy situation of their own making.  I’m still betting on Trump running 3rd party just to watch the GOP burn. >

The Maga crowd is already against trump since he endorsed McCarthy >

Trump still has more power over the Republican Party than anyone else.  They would love to ditch Trump and go all in on DeSantis. Trump is toxic and I'm sure a huge pain in the ass for them. However, if DeSantis wins the nomination we could see Trump run independent and try to destroy the Republican Party's chances of winning by splitting the vote. With all the legal in issues piling up for Trump he wants that immunity that becoming President gives you. It is also a fantastic grift and opportunity for Trump to milk his supporters for money. We all know he loves that. If he can even run.....he has a lot of legal problems. 
No way he gets behind DeSantis. This could tear  the Republican Party apart and they deserve it. They have become an Authoritarian Movement that can't win elections and seems to think pushing unpopular policies on all Americans is the way to go. 
Fingers crossed that DeSantis wins and Trump runs as aj independent. If either of them win the Presidency, it's not going to be good for the US or the World. >

Donald isn’t going away quietly if he loses. Accusations of cheating. Contested convention, protestors. Lawsuits against the RNC and the candidate etc etc.
Donald still Commands a sizeable amount of the we that nobody can win a national election without. My neighbors have had trump flags up in their windows for going on 6 years. >

It's way early...mine and most peoples' political predictions, since Obama, have been terribly wrong. >

I saw Trump’s loss months in the future because of how he mishandled Covid. 
Had he shut up and supported the scientists and docs, he wouldn’t have indirectly killed 75,000 of his right wing supporters, which is what he needed to win re-election. The man almost died himself. Had he become infected in April instead of October, Pence would have finished the term. >

Every individual involved here will do what is in their selfish best interests. Why would any of them stick their necks out? To help the country? Screw that, they never cared about that. To help the party? The only reason they like the party is that it helps them.
None of these Republicans will stand up to Trump unless it is in their personal best interest to do so. >

Nah, because nationally DeSantis may be as unelectable as Trump. You’ll definitely see some more sensible-ish candidates, and Cruz, Rubio, etc. >

Why would he as unelectable as trump? >

Negative Partisanship. Both of them scare more liberal leaning voters enough to vote for the Democratic candidate when they might otherwise stay home.
Typically, Democratic turnout fluctuates heavily depending on candidate, whereas Republican turnout is more consistent. Biden got elected despite kind of a lukewarm reception from the Democratic base as a result of Trump actively scaring liberal voters.
Ron DeSantis comes off as essentially a more intelligent version of Trump to left leaning voters. That makes him worse from a negative partisanship angle because most people would prefer a bungling idiot trying to do things they don't want to a competent figure actually accomplishing those things. >

Desantis may rule up the left but he doesn’t rule up the independents like Trump did.