>

Very smart guy! I would have never thought of that. /s
Lindsay asks "Did it ever work for these people?" to which Tobias answers "No. It never does. I mean these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might. But......it might work for us." >

Love me some arrested development >

Not really sure if the war in Ukraine is a great example to follow. The west is allowing the war to play out while only sanctioning the aggressors and providing weapons to Ukraine. 
If China moved in on Taiwan, there would be boots on the ground. The West, but primarily the US, can't afford to lose the microchip production. Invading Taiwan would be a nightmare due to it's geography and without air superiority conquering it is likely impossible. 
China could flatten Taiwan, but what would be the point in that.. It would just start a modern war nobody wants, with nothing to gain after the dust settles other than a political move.. >

For domestic political reasons, especially but not limited to the One Child policy, China also can't use the Zerg Rush tactics the Russians are using. >

Lesson #1 should be "Dont fucking invade". Lets see if they grasp it. >

Taking lessons from Russia? It might be wiser to take lessons from Ukraine. >

China won’t be defending against Taiwan though, invading Taiwan is much more likely, thus learning how to defend against Taiwan may be irrelevant. >

China can make the same mistakes the Russians are making right now. >

Unfortunately, China is in a much stronger position than Russia. We are not in a position to cut off China like we cut off Russia. >

Not by much. >

I would assess that so far it looks like a very awful and unpopular idea. >

Invading Taiwan would cripple both the US and China as well as crash the world economy as most production of microchips would halt. >

Part of the reason why there is currently so much pressure to build processor plants in the United States and elsewhere is because of this fear. 
The sad part is that the necessity to defend Taiwan diminishes everyday as the microchip industry becomes less concentrated. >

No. Western allied control of Taiwan is still absolutely critical to western strategic interests regarding containment of China. 
Go look at a map of every island around China, draw a 200 mile circle around the coasts and then tell me what you see. What you see is that the west absolutely has China pinned in. If they get Taiwan, then it’s easy for the other dominoes to fall and then the US immediately loses dominance over the Pacific and Australia is cut off. 
Distribution of chip manufacturing means that if China does the dumb fuck move of invading Taiwan, then the west isn’t absolutely crippled by it. But the west would be able to cripple China since China gets its chips from Taiwan currently. >

I mean... Containment is exactly why China feels the need to have Taiwan. What country wants to be 'contained' by an unfriendly foreign power? It's like Cuba all over again. >

Isn’t everyone taking lessons? >

Lesson #1 Dont fuck around US or you will find out why they dont have free dental insurance. 
Lesson #2 Do not ever forget lesson #1 >

Well china will have a much harder them taken back taiwan due to how violent the sea is there >

As in how to fuck it up >

Every military and, especially, defense contractor in the world is taking notes right now. I really can't help but believe that the reason they're getting all the weaponry in small batches is just because it's getting battle tested.