>

It would be a massive upgrade.
Everyone keeps thinking she would split the ticket for dems, but an ad campaign marketing her to republicans would do gangbusters, advertise her as the one who “stood up to the dems”, advertise her over the rep choice, split their vote more >

You have to keep in mind there are more registered R’s than D’s who vote in AZ. So, any DEM candidate does not win by just getting the DEM base. They need to win the moderate R’s who they’ve been able to win over in recent times when the GOP puts in crazies like Lake, Masters, etc. If those moderate all go to Sinema instead of the DEM candidate the DEM candidate will be in trouble. 
So, even if Sinema splits off the moderate R’s this is still damaging for the DEM chances. This is the pool of voters the DEMS used to turn AZ blue in recent times. If she happens to get some of the moderate leaning DEMS on top of that (she will) this is really bad news for the DEMS.
Credit to /bobsaget824 >

This seems like flawed logic to me. Even if she is taking votes from the Dem candidate, she is still taking votes away from Rep candidate. As long as Dems know not to vote for Sinema she should draw enough R votes to screw the R candidate over too. Let me know if this is a completely wrong take.
Edit: spelling error >

In Arizona voters are roughly split as follows: 34.5% R, 31% D and 33.7% I. The conventional wisdom for prominent Arizona races is that the I's determine the outcome.
I see no reason (at this time) why Sinema would siphon off enough D or R votes to win. I think a lot depends on the perceived positions of the D and R candidates. 
If the R candidate is a whacko (like Lake), and if the the D candidate (presumably Gallego) is perceived as too far to the left, then I think Sinema would be exactly where she would like to be and would have a shot at scraping I's as well as moderate D's and R's. In a three way race for US Senate in Arizona, the winner only needs a plurality of votes, not a majority. I think this helps Sinema. This scenario seems like a narrow window to me.
On the other end of the spectrum, if both the R and D candidates come off as moderate, then I think it will be a nail biter. Sinema probably wouldn't win but she could hurt the D candidate's chances.
Another factor is how Sinema morph's herself between now and the election. I wouldn't be surprised to see her start pulling away from the D's or at least threaten to do so. Why stay close to them if they are going to fight you in the primary? 
Basically it's too early to see how this is going to play out. Today I favor Gallego as the front runner. I think it's likely he will try very hard to appeal to moderates (even though he a self-proclaimed progressive). I also think the Arizona Rs are nut cases and won't be able to resist voting for a whacko in the R primary. >


I wouldn't be surprised to see her start pulling away from the D's or at least threaten to do so

Did she not literally go independent like a month ago..? >

She went independent but is still closely aligned with the Democrats, still holds all of her Democratic committee assignments and generally votes with the Democrats -- similar to what Angus King has done in Maine. The difference is King is usually unopposed by a Democratic candidate for his US Senate seat. Sinema, on the other hand recently became an I and already has a Democratic opponent for her US Senate seat. >

Thank you. I stand corrected. >

Keep an eye on Ruben Gallego.    A populist ex-marine Iraq war vet democrat.    This is a guy who could go well beyond the Senate in the next few years. >

Anti-war? That would be a nice change. >

His unit was in deep and he saw real sht.   You don't experience the hell of war like he did and not come out with a much clearer understanding of the realities of life and death and what war really means.   
I don't want war ever, but there are times when it comes to that and I would much rather have someone in a position of power that uses their experience to show caution and trepidation rather than a war hawk who has never seen combat rubber stamping bloodshed as if it's a game. >

George W. Bush really did lie about WMDs, and his aides are still lying for him >

Yeah I think at this point everyone knows they lied us into war.  Insane he got away with it.  Wasn't even impeached >

Pelosi is a chickenshit who was terrified impeaching W would have the same affect as the Clinton impeachment had on his popularity so she repeatedly blocked attempts. She shirked her duty because of political fear yet people on this sub will “yass queen” her terrible legacy because she ripped up some paper, clapped sarcastically and oversaw some genuinely disastrous electoral results. >

“Terrible legacy”. I agree that Bush should have faced impeachment but I don’t think you understand her career. She was the first, and second, female speaker. She got an incredible amount of legislation through the House including the ACA. Compared to contemporaries like Denny “pedo” Hastert, Tom “criminal” DeLay, John “Boner” Boehner and Paul “watch me listen to RAtM” Ryan, she’s pretty much a rock star. >

So then the criteria for being a rock star is “don’t be a Republican”. Nah. She has torpedoed so much progressive legislation to fuck workers, indigenous folks and poor people, all of whom need better healthcare. As for the the ACA (aka RomneyCare), calling it a victory for the people is incredible because of the individual mandate that doomed it from the get go. She and other machine dems like her will do anything they can to ensure nothing substantially changes in this country as we careen toward economic and climactic devastation, all while siphoning off wealth to those who least need it. >


She and other machine dems like her will do anything they can to ensure nothing substantially changes in this country as we careen toward economic and climactic devastation, all while siphoning off wealth to those who least need it. 

I don't see what the solution is?
How do you replace all of them AND the Republicans? >

Sigh I don’t either unfortunately besides organizing at the local level the way Rs have for decades. But we certainly can’t lionize milk toast wannabe reformers and gloss over their inconsistencies like they’re actually helping anyone but the ruling class >

She’s a useless sack of crap. Please vote her out. >

She's going to be voted out, but switching her affiliation to Independent means that she can get on the general election ballot, siphon votes from a Democrat that would have beat her in a primary and gift wrap the seat for a Republican. It's a shame but there's nothing Dems can really do about it. Kick her out of the caucus and she joins the Rs and they lose their edge on committees. >

Possibly, but she really screwed over the people who voted for her. She knows it and they know it. >

She also doesn’t give a flying fuck about us who voted her in. >

Seriously. She would be truly delusional to think any republicans will vote for her (especially as an independent, rather than with an "R" next to her name). If she wanted democrats to vote for her, she could have remained a democrat. Instead, the only effect of this will be her not getting reelected, while siphoning votes away from democrats to begin with. >

Yeah, that's the point. She wants the Dems to pull out of the race and support her, or she torpedoes the seat and gives it (and possibly the Senate) to the GOP >

RUBEN GALLEGO LAUNCHES BID TO UNSEAT UNPOPLULAR SENATOR IN 2024
Fixed that for you. >

When does this take place? >

Now >

Great >


Popular Democratic Congressman

Also known as "Ruben Gallego." >

Democrats have to keep putting forward quality.  Hard working candidates who are willing to go into Red communities and listen but also be prepared to explain while also not getting frustrated and angry. Stay the course. Stay strong and fight with reason and dispelling the crazy.  You won’t capture all of them but I believe the younger generation wants change. They see this insanity the Republican Party is spewing and they want better for their future than their own hardline parents care about. They are also more well read and open, and not stupid. There are stupid ones, for sure. But the bulk of this generation is wise and smart and needs to be treated as such. This is where you turn the votes blue. >

Going into red voter blocs would be easier if they were rational about just one thing.  They have nothing to offer but a kick in the teeth and rip-offs >

It IS hard to reason with people, when they're the ones closing libraries and defunding schools. >

We’re all in for Ruben here in AZ. Bad faith actors are already “smearing” him with the progressive tag but he’s way smarter than they are. Told staff to quit using Latinx since it was confusing the abuelas. Dude is a mensch. >

I work with several Latinos and they think Latinix is a stupid label. >

Latino here. I hate it. >

Vote her out! She's one of the bad ones. >

She couldn't possibly try to run as a Democrat again, can she?  That's a bold lie to tell voters. >

She could try, but would have no support whatsoever from the Democratic party. >

That's not guaranteed. There is a chance that the Democratic party will continue to support her in order to not lose the seat entirely. I think it's more likely that they won't but depending on how this next year goes (especially if the democratic position starts to look shaky) they might choose to bow down to Sinema and just cut their losses. It's unlikely, though. >

Same.  I was very tempted to reply to them to move it to reddit or something.  It's way more effective here on me. >

Can’t wait for the day she goes away and take the fashion crimes with her. >

Can we just give her some sort of useless cabinet position or ambassadorship so she goes away? If she sticks around, this won’t end well in 2024. >

Good. She was a DINO. >

No she isn't >

You’re right she’s worse >

I'm right because she's not a Democrat in name. She's an independent. >

She is literally the reason why the Filibuster still exists. >

If you think that then you have way more faith in the Democrats than I do. >

Your source does not support your argument and in fact demonstrates your argument is false. >

It is appalling that you can run an election as a member of a specific party, and switch that party after you’ve already been voted in. How does our system of government allow that? >

Because it's a fundamental principle of the political system that you vote for a person, not a party. >

It's convention (albeit not required) in many other countries that resigning the whip or crossing the floor comes with a resignation and a by-election to allow the voters to express their approval or disapproval at the earliest opportunity.
For an example: UK Conservative Zac Goldsmith resigned the Tory whip and his seat in 2016 to protest the government's plans for a third runway at Heathrow.  He ran for the seat as an independent in the subsequent by-election. He lost. >

Can’t wait to ignore her on FOX. >

I doubt he'll have a hard time. She pissed off both sides of the aisle >

Has to be done if the democrats in Arizona wanted a new senator. Remember Sen Sinema did block some of Biden's progressive reforms.  if Gallego won in the Senate race via primary win then combined with a Democratic win over GOP Gov DeSantis or Trump in 2024. This will allow a Democratic progressive future in the US unlike the GOP Autocratic and dark vision of the US >

I'm guessing you want Republicans to be outlawed, right? >

correct because they are pro-autocracy and white supremacist vision for America. That includes apology for January 6th >

Sounds good. Appears he wants to do the job instead of court big donors and sport awkward fashion like sinema. >

I hope I don’t have to keep seeing her face. She is trump level of bullshitter. >

Corruption Barbie. >

Please do! >

Love this guy! Looking forward to a bright future for him. Who knows is Sinema even wants to run again, it seems like she would rather be a lobbyist anyway. >

wondering what the Rs promised in exchange for her throwing poison down the D well for 6 years…but it must be good >

I live in Arizona and he has my vote in 2024. Hopefully Sinema and whatever RWNJ wackadoodle the GQP run split the vote allowing Gallegos to win the race. There’s video of Sinema high fiving Manchin on the stage at the World Economic Forum (Davos) celebrating the defeat of filibuster reforms and voting right reform. >

Good thing we got Warnock back in, b/c ding-dong wants to take down the Dems any way possible. >

Makes me want to move back to Arizona just to vote for him. >

Ruben Gallego definitely has my vote in 2024. I'm in AZ and unfortunately voted for Sinema. In hindsight, I'm super disappointed in myself for that choice. We can do better here in AZ, for sure! >

She has already made her money and will retreat to the halls of Fox as a commentator. Money corrupts >

Can't wait to see Hunger Games Karen go >

I wish you luck Arizona, and hopefully your '3rd party independent' runner flops like ours did in the Oregon gov race. >

Sinema has a cush job in finance lined up for 2025z >

OK, cool, but..... I could use a bit more of a breather between election cycles, myself. >

Have fun running as an "independent" with no resources, because you just gave them away to your primary opponent, you treasonous dipshit. >

I usually don’t donate to political candidates. 
I am willing to make an exception to help this guy out. >

Sinema brings shame on the names of BYU exmos everywhere. Wouldn't be surprised if she runs on an unwinnable IND ticket out of spite >

Best hope is that Sinema realizes she has no path to win and walks away. But she comes off as someone way too stubborn to be reasonable. >

Sinema doesn't care. It was always her plan to put in her time in Congress, make the networking connections, and then go work on K Street where the real money is. >

Please vote that traitor out of office. Sinema is the definition of money over people. >

She’s a grifter and hack only in it for the power and personal gain. >

Godspeed, sir. Take down this (insert lukewarm term that will get me banned again). >

Apparently I've been donating to Gallego every week for the last 2 years.  I should really check my bank statements more often. >

I’m so tired of unending election cycles. It seems like it’s getting shorter and shorter when politicians launch their campaign, no wonder why nothing gets done ever. >

The longer you live, the faster time flies. Perspective makes a hell of a difference. >

She's going to lose in a landslide and she brought it upon herself. >

She got her thirty pieces of silver, and then some. She won’t care about losing. >

Bye-bye Kyrsten. It wasn’t nice knowing you. >

She is gonna fuck shit up again I bet. >

Get her out >

Bye Felicia >

Funny thing is, polling shows that a potential race between Ruben Gallego as the Democrat and Kari Lake as the Republican is basically tied, with or without Sinema in the race. She's drawing votes from both sides equally, which means she's basically also irrelevant in the race. >

She’s a literal douche bag >

Well, she is not worth $11 Millions, that we know of. She went from piss poor sleeping in her car to a millionaire on a government salary. /s
She has been in politics for about 15 years, I think she doesn't care about another term, she made her money and I'm sure there is more for her waiting when she leave Congress >

Let’s go Gallego! Literally nothing to lose regardless of Sinema’s moves. She loses the seat in any scenario. >

Doesn’t she look like Santos in drag? >

Ruben Gallego is a King and I can’t wait to help him crush Sinema. ¡VAMOS! >

This is a guy who could go well beyond the Senate in the next few years. >

He is the future of the party, along with Porter. He just needs to remain distant from the cancer that makes up the Squad. >

She's worth $11 million right now. She got what she wanted. It was never her intent to serve anyone but herself. >

I don’t think “independents” should be allowed in party primaries… >

They aren’t. She’ll run against Gallegos and a Republican in the general I assume >

Holy crap! A front page story that isn’t about Republicans? What is the world coming to?!? >

Y’all should realize if he runs and Sinema runs as an independent, the Republican will win. >

Source?  Seems like a huge amount of “trust me” there >

Just need an IQ over 90. >


trust me

Gotcha >

Sub 90. Gotcha. >

And Arizona goes hard Red in a split ticket >

Mark Kelly is the other senator. Arizona is very purple. >

Have a dem governor too. >

How many times is this going to popup on /r/politics ? >

This is just going to led to the republicans taking that seat. >

She won't split the democrat vote and probably doesn't have independents either. The only people who will vote for her are Republicans. I wouldn't be surprised if she ran as a republican for the upcoming election. >

Okay so based off 2018, a Democrat, Republican, and Green Party all ran for that spot. Sinema only won by 3.8% or by 55.9k votes.
Two liberals running against each other will absolutely partition the voting bloc. 
The notion that Sinema couldn’t pull enough votes to deny a democratic victory is laughable with such small margins. 
The contest between the democrat and independent doesn’t have to be 50/50 split the vote, it just has to be enough of a split to deny both from winning. 
The only way to possibly override that is for the Democratic Party to put the work in now to completely ostracize Sinema as a choice for independents and democrats. But they’re not going to do that. >

She doesn't have the same backing by the voters that she had in 2018. She's pretty hated in this state. Her popularity has plummeted. She got democrat and independent votes last time. Those people don't want to vote for her again because she's shown us who she is. Gallego has also shown us who he is and he's stood with what he said he was. He's liked here. People aren't going to pick someone they feel betrayed by over someone they trust. >

We’ll see >

Interesting. This will likely split the democrat vote and give the seat to a Republican, since Sinema is a left leaning independent. >

Does sinema still draw enough support to split the ticket and hand this seat to Republicans? >

Woah… he really looks like that dude that pretends to be president from Z Nation. >

Take my money >

About time >

The real question is- whose vote is she gonna split? >

And he will probably win. Kari Lake and the Republican leadership have left the party in a shambles. Kari Lake's comment that if you support John McCain you should get out of the Party. Has a lasting impact. They still remember the Battleship Arizona here. It's not ancient history it is local history.