Event rates and timescale distributions from realistic microlensing   models of M31
  We provide a set of microlensing event rate maps for M31, the Andromeda Galaxy. Rates for M31 microlensing were calculated on the basis of a four component model of the lens and source populations: disk and bulge sources lensed by bulge, disk, M31 halo and Galactic halo lenses. We confirm the high rate gradient along the minor axis of M31 due to a dark halo of lenses. Furthermore, we compute the timescale distributions of events, for both Einstein times and full-width at half-maximum times. We explore how the rate contours and the timescale distributions can be used to measure the shape and extent of the microlensing halo. With one year of twice--weekly sampling, or three observing seasons, a halo MACHO fraction as small as 5% can be detected with modest ground based telescopes. 
Edward A. Baltz, Geza Gyuk, Arlin Crotts