The Detectability of Orphan Afterglows
  The realization that GRBs release a constant amount of energy implies that the post jet-break afterglow evolution would be largely universal. For a given redshift all afterglows should be detected up to a fixed observer angle. We estimate the observed magnitude and the implied detectability of orphan afterglows. We show that for reasonable limiting magnitudes ($m_{lim}=25$) orphan afterglows would typically be detected from small ($\sim 10^\circ$) angles away from the GRB jet axis. A detected orphan afterglow would generally correspond to a "near-miss" of the GRB whose jet was pointing just slightly away from us. With our most optimistic parameters we expect that 15 orphan afterglows will be recorded in the SDSS and 35 transients will be recorded in a dedicated 2m class telescope operating full time for a year in an orphan afterglow search. The rate is smaller by a factor of 15 for our "canonical" parameters. We show that for a given facility an optimal survey should be shallower, covering larger area rather than deeper. The limiting magnitude should not be, however, lower than $\sim$ 23rd as in this case more transients from on-axis GRBs will be discovered than orphan afterglows. About 15% of the transients could be discovered with a second exposure of the same area provided that it follows after 3, 4 and 8 days for $m_{lim}=23$, 25 and 27. 
Ehud Nakar, Tsvi Piran and Jonathan Granot