The Duty Cycle of GRS 1915+105
  We propose a scenario for a periodic filling and emptying of the accretion disc of GRS 1915+105, by computing the mass transfer rate from the donor and comparing it with the observed accretion rate. The binary parameters found by Greiner et al. (2001) predict evolutionary expansion of the donor along the giant branch with a conservative mass transfer rate (1 - 2)E-8 solar masses per year. This reservoir can support the present accretion with a duty cycle 0.05 - 0.1 (the active time as a fraction of the total life time). The viscosity time scale at the circularization radius (15 solar radii from the primary 14 solar mass black hole) is identified as the recurrent quiescent time during which a new disc is formed once consumed by the BH. For small viscosity (alpha = 0.001) it equals to 300 - 400 years. The microquasar phase, with the duty cycle, will last around 10 million years ending with a long period black hole + white dwarf system. 
O. Vilhu and D. Hannikainen