Anatomy of extreme events in a complex adaptive system
  We provide an analytic, microscopic analysis of extreme events in an adaptive population comprising competing agents (e.g. species, cells, traders, data-packets). Such large changes tend to dictate the long-term dynamical behaviour of many real-world systems in both the natural and social sciences. Our results reveal a taxonomy of extreme events, and provide a microscopic understanding as to their build-up and likely duration. 
Paul Jefferies, David Lamper, Neil F. Johnson