protection agreements and forward physical contracts.

 

In 2011, 3M expects sales growth of 10 percent or more, with organic sales volume growing 5.5 to 7.5 percent, currency effects adding 1 to 2 percent (assuming December 31, 2010 exchange rates), and acquisitions adding 4 to 6 percent for the year. This expected sales growth and related incremental operating income, including a benefit from currency effects (assuming December 31, 2010 exchange rates), should more than offset the items that will negatively impact earnings, as summarized below.

 

There are a few major items that will negatively impact earnings in 2011. First, as discussed further below, 3M expects that pension and postretirement expense will decrease 2011 earnings, when compared to 2010, by approximately 22 cents per diluted share. A banked vacation policy change made in 2009 will also negatively impact earnings in 2011. Prior to 2009, 3M allowed employees to bank a certain amount of unused vacation. Effective January 1, 2009, 3M employees were given two years to use their previously banked vacation, with the resulting reduction in 3M’s liability benefiting both 2009 and 2010 operating results. This change resulted in an estimated 8 cent per diluted share benefit in 2010 results, which will not carry-over into 2011, and thus, will negatively impact 2011 versus 2010 comparisons. Finally, 3M’s early assessment of the income tax rate indicates an expected 2011 effective tax rate of approximately 29.5 percent compared to 27.7 percent for 2010.

 

On a worldwide basis, 3M’s pension and postretirement plans were 90 percent funded at year-end 2010. The U.S. qualified plan, which is approximately 71 percent of the worldwide pension obligation, was 97 percent funded, the non-qualified pension plan was not funded, and the international pension plans were 89 percent funded. Asset returns in 2010 for the U.S. qualified plan were 14.4% while the year-end 2010 discount rate was 5.23%, down 0.54 percentage points from the 2009 discount rate of 5.77%. 3M expects to contribute $400 million to $600 million of cash to its global pension and postretirement plans in 2011. The Company does not have a required minimum pension contribution obligation for its U.S. plans in 2011. 3M expects pension and postretirement benefit expense in 2011 to increase by approximately $213 million pre-tax, or 22 cents per diluted share, when compared to 2010. Refer to critical accounting estimates within MD&A and Note 11 (Pension and Postretirement Benefit Plans) for additional information concerning 3M’s pension and post-retirement plans.

 

Forward-looking statements in Item 7 may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause results to differ materially from those projected (refer to the section entitled “Cautionary Note Concerning Factors That May Affect Future Results” in Item 1 and the risk factors provided in Item 1A for discussion of these risks and uncertainties).

 

Special Items:

 

Special items represent significant charges or credits that are important to understanding changes in the Company’s underlying operations.

 

In 2010, 3M recorded a one-time, non-cash income tax charge of $84